The Bill Simmons Podcast - Round 1 NFL Playoff Extravaganza With Ryen Russillo | The Bill Simmons Podcast (Ep. 464)

Episode Date: January 4, 2019

HBO's and The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo to talk wild-card-weekend lines, (un)trustworthy quarterbacks, matchup futures bets, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's very special episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, where we preview round one of the NFL playoffs with our friend Ryan Rosillo. Are you excited? Yeah, I am. Are you feeling it? It's brought to you by ZipRecruiter. You know what's not smart? Having Joe House on this podcast, because he's been ice cold.

We banned him from round one. Actually, he's on vacation, but it's a better story if we banned him. You know what else is a smart job site that overwhelmed me with tons of the wrong resumes? Luckily, there's a smart way at ZipRecruiter.com slash BS. Right now, my listeners can try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash BS. ZipRecruiter is the smartest way to hire. Meanwhile, SeatGeek is still the best app

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That's Ryan's podcast. There's been negotiations about, does this go through football season? Do we just keep this going? Does this go every week? It could go. Yeah. And then in a month from now, you're coming over to the BS podcast right after the Super Bowl ends. We're doing NBA every Sunday night or Monday. We haven't decided yet. What's your Sunday night schedule?

I can do it. I don't hate that idea at all. You're doing comedy clubs? Hermosa, the Jay Leno comedy club? Like, seeing his set? Yeah, you know. What's going on? I got a five-minute thing on Lost. So stay tuned. I'll give you some of that now if you want it. We'll take it later.

No, the stand-up? Yeah, we'll do it at the end of the pod. I think this would be a good place to test that material. It's open mic that here in the BS pod. Check out Dual Threat. Check out all of our awesome podcasts. The End of Villains with Shea Serrano. It is wrapping up season one.

Very successful. The Rewatchables is coming back on Tuesday, Ryan. We might have to get you on one of these. I fear. I don't want to do it unless it's fear. You want to do the fear? That's going to be season eight. I'm going to be dressed.

What do you mean season eight? That's a staple. Season eight. We're doing The Godfather. It's going up Tuesday. It's the most important rewatchables podcast of all time. It's just the first one or two? First one.

Saving two for the end of the year. We're going to bookend it. What about moving violations? Are you a one or two guy? What's moving violations? You don't remember moving violations? No. Bill Murray's brother was in it.

Remember his brother who played his brother in Scrooge? That's his real brother. Not Brian Doyle Murray, but the other Murray. The third Murray. Yeah. And he was in this movie called Moving Violations. So I thought of you when no one wanted you to do Fletch and then you're just like, you tweeted out the 80s are dead. And it was super depressing because Fletch is perfect. Fletch is about timing. Really hurt my feelings. And now I just started thinking about all the 80s movies that used to wait and be like,

remember when rental places, I don't know how it took so long for places that rented movies to be like hey no be a great idea buy a second fucking copy right we used to all just show up like four yeah like his action jackson in damn it it's out again seven more days what's the wait list and then and then one company just decided hey why don't we buy three Action Jacksons? So people not wanting Fletch made me think about 80 movies and moving violations. We get Kyle on that. We get the research department up. Is this part of your standup set or is this new material? No, it just came to me. This is great. Yeah. But I'm looking for a dual threat in June. The other problem is people like my wife during the rental era who would rent a movie and then not bring it back for two and a half weeks

and get the $48 in rental fee violations. Are you surprised to hear that your aunt did that, Kyle? Yeah. What a great scam that was. It really was. Yeah. All right, we're going to talk about not rentals, but one of the most fascinating round one NFL weekends I can ever remember

coming up right after this first Pearl Jam. All right, we have four great games for round one. This is the first time I've actually liked all four games since I can't remember because I like watching the Colts. I'm sorry. I like watching Andrew Luck play quarterback. I know we have to all apologize for this now. I'm sorry I like an AFC South team,

but this is the first time for me in years. I enjoy watching them. I agree. I like to see, I don't know, a passable defense. They've actually been pretty good defensively

this year. You know, I think what happens, yeah, but I mean, statistically, I think they're better than people even realize.

And what happens all the time with these quarterbacks is like, okay, so they're winning games or playoffs. It's like,

hey, luck is back. Luck had had to have, before he'd really gotten hurt, done more without things around him than anybody, really. I mean, it was embarrassing how bad that was during the grigson run well and also they weren't blocking for him no i mean now we're talking all of it yeah collectively like they've invested in the offensive line it's worked um the linebackers are terrific there's a defense

that feels like you can compete but i still think we're sitting here and liking to see that luck's like hey it's great the guy that was supposed to be a top five guy looks like he's going to be a top five guy again. Not MVP, but at least, you know, that kind of passing will let you pretend and give you some consideration. But you're not going to be surprised if Houston wins, right? No. Fascinating line, though. And you talked right before we started. We have three under three lines in round one,

which I usually love. Short favorites, right. Short favorites I like because we're removing all the variables of getting screwed over. Now there's three short favorites out of four, and that tells me somebody's going to win the game but not cover. I'm just so ready to be tortured by one of these games, and I'm looking at Ravens Chargers, which is two and a half. I could see the Ravens winning like 28, 27, 24, 23.

And it's like, I was right. The Ravens won and I lost money. Here's my money. So are you... I just hate when... You know it's going to happen. How close are you to betting all four dogs? Not close.

Let's go through it. Here are the lines. And then I have a bunch of stuff for you. Houston is down to one and a half. They're the first game. It opened at what? Two, two and a half? Yeah, it was like two and a half. And now it's one and a half.

Colts getting one and a half in that one. Next game, Saturday night, Dallas. Ooh, that went up a little. Now it's Dallas by two. Okay. That used to be one and a half. Sunday, first game, Ravens has been two and a half steady all week against the Chargers. That is not

budged. People like the Chargers. You want to know just one of my favorites. And then Bears minus six is not budged either. Right. One of my favorite stories from ESPN is, you know, because Van Pelt's the gambling guy. Yeah. And Cowherd's producer. I think Van Pelt's overrated as a gambling guy.

That's my hottest take at 2019 so far not even touching that one yeah i want to remain overrated i'll go ahead to head with van pelt so cowherd's producer really good guy yeah um we were in commercial break and he comes out of the he had just done his blazing five and he's like man he goes cowherd's unbelievable van pelt's like what are you what are you talking about we got he got yeah yeah he's like cow man, he goes, Cowherd's unbelievable. Van Pelt's like, what are you talking about? He got competitive. He's like, Cowherd moves lines. Van Pelt's like, no, he doesn't. Because Cowherd had told his producer.

He's like, look at that. He goes, the line just moved after I gave out the pick on the Blazing Five. And Van Pelt was like, that's not what moves lines, your Blazing Five segment. He goes, it's sharp money. Whales, sharp money comes in. That moves the line. But both sides are right. It was heated. I walked away.

Sal and I, every time we do future podcasts, we move the lines on the online sites. You move the lines too? On the future bets, not on the actual game lines. But we've moved lines. We joke about it. We never bet it before we do the podcast. That's what you got to start doing.

We had the Bobcats. They you're going to start doing but it was like we had the Bobcats we were like the Bobcats they were like 15 to 1 to win the whatever

terrible division they're in and we're like this is a great bet we should do this we're talking about Charlotte Bobcats Charlotte Bobcats

and then named after their owner yeah named after Bob Bob Johnson Bob Johnson I don't know that enough people

paid attention to that we did the pot it was 10 to 1 then it became 8 to 1 and then now I actually think Miami is but that's that's okay so I got you Bob Johnson. Bob Johnson. I don't know that enough people paid attention to that. We did the pot. It was 10 to 1. Then it became 8 to 1. And then now I actually think Miami is, but that's- Okay, so I got you. I went off track. I do think the online sites listen to this stuff.

And if they feel like, oh shit, we're giving away too much value, they'll tweak it. I think it's really hard to move a game line though. All right. So then it's undetermined. We don't know. We don't know yet. Okay, so- So here's my-

I have a bunch of stuff for you today. This first thing is a passion thing for me. I think there should be two more NFL playoff teams. I actually think there should be 14. And I think the one seeds in each conference should get a bye. And then we go two versus seven, three, six, four, five. And we have six games on Saturday and Sunday. So it's two byes then?

Just the byes for the one seed. That's it. buys then? Just the buys for the one seed, that's it. Oh, just the buys for the one seed, okay. So if we did that this weekend and we had three games on Saturday, three games on Sunday, which by the way, is anyone arguing with more football on this weekend? I'm not.

Nope. Pat Steelers would be the 2-7 in the AFC and Rams-Vikings would be the 2-7 in the NFC, which isn't a great game. Pat Steelers would be the 2-7 in the AFC, and Rams-Vikings would be the 2-7 in the NFC, which isn't a great game. Pat Steelers would be phenomenal, especially coming off this whole Antonio Brown versus Roethlisberger thing. And I guess I have a couple points there.

One, why not? What's wrong with more football? And then also, can you think of a team that deserved to buy less than the New England Patriots this year? They went 11-5. They had two impressive wins the whole time. Just not a great football team. And they just get to basically put their feet up in a chair and hope that the Texans beat the Colts.

And they get to play the Texans in round two, who they've owned this whole century. And then they get to watch the Ravens or Chargers beat the hell out of the Chiefs or vice versa, whatever happens to that. The roadmap is too easy for the two seed, I think, right now, the way we have it. I think they should play an extra game. What are your thoughts on that? Okay. Extra football, nobody's upset about. So I see what you're doing here. You're doing seeded two through seven, the three games, and then you just started up with the four games for next weekend right or four teams four teams same thing in each conference yeah okay um as much as i agree with new england this year because like everybody's afraid to do this thing like how many people have you heard like oh you know like wait a minute they beat

the bills in their back that would that surprised me so many past teams like oh you guys are talking all this shit and you're like you beat the bills you beat the bills and jets to close out the season i went through it i will say it again on my podcast and i'll say it now here the last time the pats lost three games by double digits or more in the same season with brady as the starter was 2005 when you get smacked by really good team or that's one thing but you're getting like they don't do that they don't lose games the way they've lost games this year. So yeah, Brady hasn't been the same. Gronk hasn't been the same.

We know the defense isn't loaded with all these different playmakers. I almost think it's impossible for them to go to Kansas City and win down there. I really do. I don't know how the defense is going to be able to hold up. Well, I wonder. The last couple weeks, they started running the ball more. They have. But I don't know. Do you think that's a per-week match matchup thing or now they've changed their identity i think that's an identity change

to get ready for what happens if they play kansas city because you cannot overstate how bad kansas city's run defenses not only were they the worst in the league they were 32nd but for a stretch there and the football outsiders guys our friends aaron shots and company were tracking it they had one of the top 10 worst run defenses ever with a couple of weeks to go. And then they finally played themselves out of the bottom 10 all time. But I think the Pats are looking at this. Like if we go to Kansas city,

the way to beat them is to basically do the 2007 giants on them and control the clock, run the ball, have it for 40 minutes. The DVOA numbers numbers are you're absolutely right they're off the charts like i don't want to make it super nerdy but like when you start looking matters though when they're 30 second and it's 30 seconds in the gap because i've looked at this before to like the gap between them and the second worst team run defensively uh is tampa like the gap between them is almost like 15 teams, like 15 teams take up that space of how,

how big that variance is. So you're right. Historically, they're really bad, but I don't know if, you know, Michelle's had some big games. James White was big again,

but I think it's okay to look at this team and go, it doesn't feel as strong, but does that mean that they should have to play another game? So back to your original point. Well, but hold on though. One more point on that. I do think they match up well with Kansas City. The only section of the entire team that I really like is the secondary.

I think their secondary is pretty good. You know, especially because Jackson, the undrafted guy has, they've thrown him into the fire and he's actually responded. They have safeties. Like, I think they, it's definitely in better shape than it was in October. Yeah, for years when they had a bad defense. And then you move out Kareem Hunt. And now it's like this Damian Williams guy who I think is talented,

but I just find those guys who haven't been in this situation before, those are the guys that put the ball on the ground. They're trying to get that extra yard. They're lunging. They're putting the ball out. You can take the ball from those guys. I think he's get that extra yard. They're lunging. They're putting the ball out. Like, you can take the ball from those guys. I think he's got one turnover

in him in a big game. You get to third, fourth, fifth string. Those are the guys that put the ball on the ground. Yeah, the other younger quarterbacks I don't worry about. Like, I don't worry about Deshaun

not playing in a big spot. I don't worry about Mahomes here. Like, when I think about Deshaun Watson, you think he's more worried about a Colts divisional or wildcard game or two national championships

against Alabama? That's our second topic, so hold that, because I want to rank the quarterbacks. Okay. So I jumped ahead there, but I don't, I don't want more football. Here's my point. So you don't want more football.

So like, even though I'm not anti eight teams in the college football playoff, this, and again, it's just one year, it's another year, a very small sample of overall, overall information, how we see the four games play out. But like, this would have been a bad year, but like, wait a minute, Bama and Clemson have to play another game to prove what we already know about them. But what if we had a 16 playoff and one and two just got a bye in the college football thing? The greatest thing about college football playoff expansion is everybody presents some new form. And like, everybody said all of these things before. Everybody's done the two bye thing. So that's fine too. Maybe we do that. But the longer we expand this thing out, like what the hell has

Pittsburgh done besides just be a 500 team or even Minnesota to prove like, why do you get a chance to even be in this tournament? As much as the NBA can be too predictable in a way, I like that better than a nine and seven Giants team than being crowned. Like, wait a minute, that's the best team in the NFL. Like you can go nine and seven and then you get into the tournament and then you win it. But Ryan, this is why I have a gambling problem because you're making great points. I don't think, I just want two more games to gamble on. I don't think, imagine, you know, we had seven and nine one year with Seattle

and they ended up winning. Imagine if you had a seven and nine team and they're like playing in the Super Bowl. Like that team, we saw your 16 games. Right. You shouldn't have an invitation for a chance to win. This is too important. I'm passionate about this.

Kyle, you decide which case did you like more? Let's keep it the way it is. Okay. Wow. Are you... That's great. Why don't you just adopt Kyle? I do have a spare bedroom. Give me your top five quarterbacks right now that you want in a playoff game. Oh, wow. And I'll give you the scenario. Okay.

I'll give you the scenario. Does it have to be the guys that are in the playoffs? Yeah. You're down four you're on the road temperature and they're playing with the temperature is about it's 42 but it's a little colder 42?

it's a little windy they're playing with the people they have right they're down four their kick returner decided to take it out of their own end zone like a moron and got tackled on the 16. Now you've got to go 84 yards in four and a half minutes. Pulled a Cyrus Jones.

They pulled a Cyrus Jones. Now you have to go 84 yards in, let's say, 420. Four minutes, 20 seconds. They got two timeouts because their coach stupidly challenged a play that he shouldn't have challenged. They only got two timeouts. their coach stupidly challenged a play that he shouldn't have challenged. They only get two timeouts. Get the two-minute warning.

Who's your number one choice for a QB with their team in this spot? All right, so Trubisky. No, I'm just kidding. I'm going to go Breeze. Breeze won. Yeah, Breeze won. Over Mahomes. Yeah, over Mahomes.

Breeze indoors and outdoors, or just Breeze indoors? Well, he's going to be indoors if it's still Breeze. Well, he's indoors this whole playoff. So that's fair. So if you're giving me... So when I asked you temperature, I was stupid because if he's indoors, he's indoors. It's fine though.

I put Mahomes second. Okay. This is me putting this together quick here. I put Brady third. Brady third? Wow. You know what? That's even more faith than I have in Brady. Brady third? Wow. And that was, you know what? That's even more faith than I have in Brady.

Yeah, because you know why? You know what's really hard to do is not put Russell Wilson third there because I do trust him. Now, I don't love his weapons as much as the other guys. I would have Wilson third. So you'd have Wilson third. All right, so we, do you have luck ahead of Brady?

I would have luck fifth. I would have Mahomes one. Breeze two. Wilson three. Oh my God. Who are you? Luck four. Oh my God.

Watson five. No way. No way. I mean, it's not that different this year. Here's why. You're going to put Deshaun Watson ahead of Brady? No, you're not. But I'm including QB, cast, team, offense, what the defense says.

Is DeAndre Hopkins the best receiver in the NFL? Well, that's the thing. So if I'm Brady, it's third and 11. I'm on my own 28. I need a first down. Where am I going? It's not Edelman. Where am I going? It's not Edelman. Where am I going?

Gronk will be doubled. Edelman has dropped that pass half the time this year. Gronk? Half is a lie. He was bad against the Steelers. Gronk is single covered. They don't even have to double cover him anymore. I got Philip Dorsett.

Well, when he's single covered by Miami, you lit him up. I have whoever their best linebacker is, is just marking my dude coming out of the backfield, whether it's James White or Michelle or whoever. I don't have to worry about Brady scrambling at all. What about Hogan?

Where am I going on third and 11? Yeah, Hogan. That's the thing. It's like, the guys who are going to decide this Patriots season, it's going to be a third and 11. It's going to be like

Cordero Patterson, Hogan, Dorsett, because those are guys that are going to be wide open. It's going to be like that giant Super Bowl where they didn't,

Chad Ochocinco was just on the right side of the field by himself for the second half. And the Giants were like, please start with him. We're not covering him. And one of the great calls that you've had in the 2018 year is when we were doing a pod together and the breaking news came down that the Pats got Josh Gordon. And you were already pre-upset. It was like you were dating somebody you really wanted to date. And you were depressed pre-upset. It was like you were dating somebody

you really wanted to date. And you were depressed. Your friends were like, hey, Bill, why the long face? And you went, when she dumps me, it's going to suck. And they were like, wait a minute. Why can't you just enjoy the now? Enjoy the three months with Josh Gordon. It's like, because I know my feelings are going to get hurt. Exactly. And not having him is a big loss. It is a big loss. He wasn't perfect for what they were doing. He did... I mean, I feel... He hit a few catches every now and then

and we were like, man, you know. I feel bad because it was... What I was afraid of was that it was going to work out well enough that they were going

to start relying on him. And that's exactly what happened. And not only that, but Nephew Kyle became as enchanted by him as anyone I've ever seen.

He would scream flash every time he caught one, and he really was all in. And that's when I really got concerned. I was like, we can't put all the eggs in the Josh Gordon basket. He has done this since he was in high school. Okay, so let's get back to the headline here, though. The headline here is that- There's no way you actually would rather-

So you're going the Watson Hopkins thing trumps any trumps any Brady experience and a guy you trust. No, and also the Watson scrambling thing. Watson's ability, and he did this the other day in what was a must-win game for them a couple times against Jacksonville, which they ended up putting away. But he had a couple plays in that game and then the week before where it's third and 12, third and eight. They have him sacked. He's about to go down. He spins out and creates like a 25 yard play out of nowhere. Brady can't do that anymore. Brady, if the play's not happening in three seconds, it's probably not happening. He'll throw it away. He's not going to run around with it.

And that's it. And their offense is designed now for like, what's going to happen in that three seconds. This is really more than a question about which offense you trust. Well, he's 41 years old. And these are the worst weapons he's had since the 06 team. It's just a fact. Yeah. I still would love to know what he says to Giselle in private moments. I think she says to him like,

I told you you should retire two years ago. That's pretty good. I told you, Tom. That was pretty good. I told you, Tom. That was pretty good. I told you after the Atlanta game, you've had too many concussions. It's the least attractive she's ever sounded. But I wonder in private moments if he just goes, I take a fucking discount every year. Yeah.

And I got to. Every single year they give me Josh Gordon. Every fucking. They put Josh Gordon off the scrap heap. Right. That's my weapon this year. Every fucking year I do this shit for got every single year. They give me Josh Gordon. Every, every fucking Josh Gordon off the scrap. Right. That's my, that's my weapon this year. Every fucking year.

I do this shit for you guys. Yeah. And all I ever asked was that you trade Garoppolo. It was my only ask ever in 10 years. Get this fucking handsome guy off my team. My teammates are hanging out. They're about to like it. I'm not going to say who it was,

but I was talking about his contract with, with one of our NFL analysts. And he's like, that whole thing's fucking bullshit i went like what and he's like he just it was like well there's three things that are complete bullshit one is the tom brady contract however else they're compensating him we'll never know two is Two is LeBron and Clutch. And it's like, he doesn't have a stake. He doesn't have a stake in Clutch. That's why I think LeBron

was so vocal about, I'd love to trade for Anthony Davis. It's not a conflict of interest. I have nothing to do with that agency. But you know what he does? They don't commission him on anything. There you go. So if he's not getting commissioned

on anything, that's kind of a stake. He's getting money out of that. That's my theory on that. And then- What's the third one? What's the third one? What's the third one? Brady?

That Miles Taylor actually is Bruce's son? I blanked on the third one. I'll remember the third one by the end of this podcast. Okay. No, it's another like sports. Oh, Dirk Nowitzki. Yeah, the pay cut there. I think Cuban paid like $62 million for Dirk's documentary that Dirk's company produced.

He's like, hey, this documentary is great. You're $62 million. It's the highest price ever paid. What do they pay for Avatar? So those are three. I love your conspiracy theories on this one. But yeah, I think there's no way that Brady's a competitive guy, like deep down isn't going,

why does this have to be so hard every year? Like, why can't we grab a guy? How does the salary cap, this is something we were doing on my podcast. Like, how does the salary cap go up 60 million in five, six years? And we're still grabbing guys that played lacrosse and other dudes that failed drug tests.

Well, it's weird. Like, even if they had gotten, even you look at free agents and the free agency thing happens and everybody's overpaid. You're like, whoa, Trey Burton got that. Yeah.

Travis Landry's going to make that. But at some point. Like even Brandon Cooks, like Brandon Cooks isn't actually like the ultimate one. Yeah, it's another round. You got that? Yeah.

You get a first rounder. At the same time, you still end up with that person on your team. And like, let's say they had paid for Trey Burton. You got that? Yeah. You get a first rounder. At the same time, you still end up with that person on your team. And like, let's say they had paid for Trey Burton. Trey Burton's fine. But he's better than Dwayne Allen.

Now we can play him and Gronk together and Trey Burton might actually get open. Like I like Dwayne Allen in college. Yeah. You know, and like Cordell Patterson is like, oh, we got the guy that

they never really figured out, Minnesota. And then he has like a couple of runs in Minnesota. So it's like, we use them the wrong way. We're like, or great. Or,

you know, he's somebody who could run reverse with who is a good returner. This is amazing. Is it running back too? Yeah. But you know what I would like is what, what they haven't been able to do is figure out that next generation Edelman type or go get the Amendola from another team or they,

Brady's always at his best when he has those two guys who can run around and know where they are. And he only has one. He's only had one all season. Yeah, and he hasn't even had Edelman all season. Yeah, and Edelman, I think, has been a subpar version of Edelman for the most part. Because he's always been so money.

Right. He's just not as good anymore. And whether that takes two years to come back or not. So you're really down on him. This is his down. I think he had some big drops in that Steelers game. I was really bummed out by that. He used to be so reliable.

But maybe he'll step it up in the playoffs. So anyway, my point is, I look at those other teams, and I look at somebody like Wilson, and if he's down late in the game, he has the ability to create something out of nowhere. He can scramble for a first down. He has connections with Baldwin. He's really developed something with Lockett.

The Lockett numbers are ridiculous. He has a with Baldwin. He's really developed something with Lockett. The Lockett numbers are ridiculous. He has a perfect passer rating on targets to Lockett. Yeah, he's done a nice job with them. And then Luck, I just think he has an incredible amount of time to pass. You know, I watch football all day on Sunday. And then that Indianapolis game was last. And it was just shocking to watch. I'd watch all these quarterbacks under siege the whole day.

And you watch the Colts, it's like, oh, Luck's got four seconds. He's just looking around for who to throw to. And I think that's going to be really valuable in the playoffs. Even though I think it's kind of ridiculous to put Deshaun ahead of Brady here. And I just do, even though you're right. I mean, Hopkins is, I don't know, it's weird. It's like Hopkins is like this NBA guy that you don't think can lead a team. It's almost like Harden when he was with that you don't think can lead a team it's

almost like Harden when he was with Oklahoma City yeah yeah Harden's pretty good but I mean come on is he really a one and now it seems like the dumbest thing ever although that was kind of like conventional wisdom at the time like is he really going to be one of these guys he's really a max guy like Hopkins never gets talked about because it's always Antonio it's Julio or it's Beckham right but Hopkins when you watch him, you're like- He's the best guy. Just, he never dropped. He doesn't, I mean, I know that's the stat this year that he didn't have a draft, but I like when I'm reading kind of the, oh, you've had no experience. There's

no doubt that experience matters in these things, but there's no question that Deshaun Watson was probably more stress-filled the weeks leading up to playing damn in the national championship than having to play the Colts. So even though he hasn't played and the Texans have their own playoff history, I'm not worried about him, but I still wouldn't put him ahead of Brady. I see it. I think if Brady had what Houston has,

it might be a little more even. Like just even having somebody like Hopkins compared to the weapons he has. Like he hasn't, he's really, Gronk has been a top-of-the-line receiver for pretty much this entire decade except the seasons he was hurt. Then before that, he had Moss from 07. He was hurt in 08 and 09. Had Welker. He had better versions of Edelman.

But you really have to go back to the Caldwell season. The other problem the Patriots have back to the Caldwell season. The other problem the Patriots have. Riche Caldwell? Riche. The other problem with the Patriots, I always know what they're going to do depending on who's in the game. So if Sony's in,

it's almost a guarantee they're going to run. Unless this whole season's been a rope-a-dope for Sony to be unleashed as a pass receiver. But they don't throw to him ever. If he's in the game, he's running. If Burkhead's in, it's going to be play action. They're going to throw screens to him. They're not going to try to run with him that much.

And then White is just pass. And I think they're pretty predictable. It really hurts them that Gronk can't get off the line anymore. Because in the old days, Gronk could block, but then could take off, and the defense was terrified. Now if he's in the block, he he's just like, oh, fuck it.

They're running, and they bring everybody in. I think they have a lot of problems. The Gronk thing was really misleading against Miami because there was a guy, I was in Boston that week, and I was listening to local radio, which is always such a treat. I love when I get to go home. But they had a really good breakdown guy on, I think it was Felger Mazza show where,

where he was like studying Gronk against the dolphins. And he's like, I'm going back and look at the tape. It was single coverage. Like the dolphins were a mess. So like Gronk had this, hey, Gronk is back game. And that's the stuff like I always kind of regret in the roles that we have. Like, we're not going to watch the all 22

of every single game. We talk about these guys, but when somebody actually does it and it's somebody you trust and they go the Gronk back narrative is kind of stupid it was just wide open the Dolphins just

screwed it up all day long yeah so it was great that he had that kind of game and you still hope like you can have something happening around the playoffs

but like to your whole point if you don't have to double anyone else you can always double Gronk and kind of shade somebody that way so even in the red zone stuff like in the red zone thing it used to feel like oh Brady automatic like you give him three chances back there it's kind of yeah it's kind of where now I almost expect field

goals yeah it's almost like I don't want them to finish at the five or six like I'd rather them throw from the 13th the Gronk thing is really bad because all you have to do is go back and look at the old footage of him. And it reminds me of Blake Griffin. You watch certain guys, you've watched Blake Griffin. Blake Griffin's put up good stats this year. He's like 24 and 10, 5 assists. He's shooting the 3 better. But if you watch him in traffic

going to the rim, and then you go back to 2012 when he was going to the rim, it's a completely different guy. And that's what it's like to watch Gronk. And he's probably aged better too. Like Blake's probably aged better than some of those dudes. In basketball, you can add the three and you can expand your game and pull out. And when you're tight end, what's Gronk going to do?

He was brute force, force of nature. He wasn't avoiding anybody. That's why he was always getting hurt. You just couldn't tackle him. And then it just turned into like a bunch of banshees. Let's take a quick break. We'rehees. Let's take a quick break. We're coming back. Let's take a break to talk about Squarespace.

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into something real. Head to squarespace.com slash BS for a free trial. And when you're ready to launch, use the offer code BS to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. That is squarespace.com slash BS, offer code BS. All right. Ranking the playoff teams

with their playoff odds. Going to start from 12. What team do you have the least confidence in that will win the Super Bowl? Out of the 12. Dallas. Dallas.

I have the Texans. Hmm. I think they Texans. Hmm. I think they're basically, it's Deshaun. They can stop the run. So you like luck. Wait a minute. Let me put this. You like the Texas chances less against luck than you do the Cowboys against?

I'm just saying. Russell Wilson? I don't like the Texans' chances to win four games in a row. I don't think they have a particularly good coach. I don't think they have a lot of weapons other than Watson and Hopkins.

You don't think Bill O'Brien? I think Bill O'Brien gets dumped on too much, actually. Well, I'd like to be in that list of people dumping on him. Okay. So you have, who's your 12th?

Dallas. Dallas is 30-1. Texans are 31. Dallas is my 11th. Okay. All right. So who do you have for 11? I know this is not going to work out,

but the idea that Lamar Jackson is going to be holding the Lombardi trophy at the end of this is impossible to me. Their defense is incredible. If it wasn't for the Bears' special defense this year, Baltimore has done an amazing job with this. But this stretch of seven games, and it's something that Kevin Clark and I talked about a little bit, but I think what happened was is Polian was the old white guy that said Lamar Jackson should play wide receiver. And so now

social media, every time Lamar Jackson has a nice play, starts doing this. And I see it with some of the ringer guys be like, oh, I thought he couldn't throw the football. And you're like, well, he actually kind of doesn't still. He's run the football on average in these seven games 17 times a game. And it's been awesome. He's as much fun as I've ever seen anyone play in college. That would, over the course of the season, never hold up. He'd be number two behind only Ezekiel Elliott in carries if he actually carried 17 times a game.

And I don't really know what he is as a Polish passer. And the fact that the Chargers just played them two weeks ago and are ready for it and some of the other blocking stuff that we'll have to do against that front line. But I love for Lamar because I really liked him and got to interview him a couple times. But this whole, okay, he's an awesome quarterback, proved it. I think it's taken on this kind of old versus young thing. And I don't think he's answered any kind of questions. There was an interesting moment in the game on Sunday

when they needed a first down to basically put the game away. Third and five. Cleveland game. Yeah. Third and five. They didn't let him throw it. And they did that weird pitch play and almost fumbled it.

And I kind of filed that one away. I was like, that's interesting. They don't even want to do like a controlled rollout screen pass with him. They're really nervous to put the game in his hands. And I'm more bullish on Lamar than you, just because I think in the playoffs, I don't care about his carries because he carried about 30 times in the playoffs. And if he does, in the way he's running it,

maybe it's like maybe you're right. Maybe I should stop thinking long term. Yeah, I think he's just think about this defense in the way I have. He's nasty.

I mean, he's nasty, but I just think like he hits one throw against the Chargers and everybody's like, ah, man, Paulian's an idiot. Paulian may be an idiot for saying he should be

wide receiver. That's fine. But this is still TBD as far as I'm Paulian's an idiot because he changed the rules to try to's fine but this is still tbd as far as i'm saying pauline's an idiot because he changed the rules to try to help the colts i knew this was gonna come up last decade i'll never forgive that guy but i like bill just lose fairly i like bill lose fairly don't lose them be like we gotta change the rules our receivers are getting jammed come on it does remind me like i used to have him on a pod sometimes i used to sit there and scream about flacco and people like fl, take him over Matt Ryan.

Like, why would you? Because his playoff record was really good. Yeah. He was great in that one playoffs. Before that Montana run, his numbers in the playoffs stunk. All right. So you have Ravens 10. I have them coming up later.

I have the Seahawks 10. And I like the Seahawks. And we're going to talk about them when we break down the games. I find it. I don't think they're talented enough to win four straight, especially as the road team in the first three games. That's a lot to ask for that team. It was supposed to be a transition year. They have some blue chippers.

I like their special teams. I like their coach. But, man, to win four in a row, I'd find that hard to believe. I have the Colts at nine, just because I think anybody can come out of the AFC. And it's realistic to me that they could beat the Texans, win a shootout with the Chiefs, who they've already beaten Andy Reid.

And then somehow just all of a sudden they're in the Super Bowl and they're like, what the fuck just happened? Eagles, I, oh, who do you have at ninth? I have, so I have Dallas 12th, Baltimore 11th. I have Seattle 10th. I have Philly 9th. Philly 9th.

So Philly's 35-1 to win the Super Bowl. The Colts are 28-1. I have Philly 8th. I have Philly behind the Colts. Okay. I have Philly 8th. Here's the deal. They're not as good on offense this year,

and they're also not as good in defense. I mean, it's pretty significant where they're at. We could get caught up in the Nick Foles thing. Let's get caught up on it. I love trying to figure out who he is, but then I always think of it this way. He's God's quarterback. That's who he is.

He is. Long. Goes deep. When a staff... Big Dick Nick. That's what the Ringer staff calls him. We have like 10 Ringer Eagle fans here. They call him Big Dick Nick that's what the ringer staff calls him we got like 10 ringer eagle fans here they call him Big Dick Nick

that's great he is the Juan Uribe of the NFL remember remember Bachelor Party Tom Hanks the male stripper Nick the Dick why do they call you Nick the Dick and he whips it out

and throws it on the hot dog plate and it just makes this big slap and they're like, oh! That's Nick the Dick. He's Big Nick Dick now. He's the cousin. The Eagle social media team should try to find a way to do a mash of that. Why do they call you Nick the Dick?

Instead of every other meme where it's like, oh no, do the girl in the backseat in the cardigan that's kind of doing this awkward smile. Yeah, I'm tired of that one. Let's see here. I'm more bullish on the Eagles than you. Now, I think they're going to lose this weekend,

but I do think- I think this is your spiritual thing. And this is where I sometimes, I'm like a little bit too hardcore, where I'm like, come on, we just know they're not as good. But you like this stuff. And sometimes the spirit award word works on this.

Like they're rallying at the end. They get the masks out. They got healthy at the right time. Chris Long made a shrine to Foles. I do think Foles has some weird effect on them. Do you know that- He took over and there's something about him. There's a confidence that they have.

And they got some guys back. They got some offensive linemen back. Bennett started really playing like a beast. They have like three guys on D that make shit happen. I don't know. And they're really confident. That's the thing. I don't like playing teams in the playoffs that are like,

we're not scared. We've been here before. You can't throw anything at us that's going to phase us, and you're going to have to beat us. No, they feel like, okay, we screwed around for three months. Yeah, and we're not scared. We've been here before. You can't throw anything at us that's going to phase us and you're going to have to beat us. No, they feel like, okay, we screwed around for three months. Yeah, and we're here. And we got back into this thing. And this is kind of our tournament,

even though it was really- And you have Mitch Trubisky. Right, and you have Mitch, which I was reading this ESPN preview on it. And it was just so funny because everybody's like, eh. And then you look at the overall numbers, you're like, wait a minute, he threw for 300 again? Yeah.

This is crazy. And just a credit to Nagy and those guys too. He's like a seventh highest fantasy QB. The running thing though, like what wait a minute, he threw for 300 again? Yeah. This is crazy. And just a credit to Nagy. He's like a seventh highest fantasy QB. The running thing though, like what QBR, what people that design QBR aren't realizing, there's way too much of the rushing attack. Like Josh Allen is way ahead of some of these other, like Josh Allen's overall numbers weren't very good, but he was such a good running quarterback this year

that it makes it look like he was better than some other dudes and he wasn't. So QBR, it's kind of like he was better than some other dudes. And he wasn't. So QBR, it's kind of like PER, you know, like the rebounds and PR. If you played less and got a lot of rebounds, PER absolutely loved you.

And it took you a while. Swift. Whoa, look at his PR. He could, if he was just in the right situation. He only played 40 minutes instead of 12. Yeah.

Right. And you're like, no, when he plays 40, he gets tired. Dallas has a guy like that. Dwight Powell. I like Dwight Powell. It's like, wow, when he plays 40, he gets tired. Dallas has a guy like that, Dwight Powell. I like Dwight Powell.

It's like, wow, Dwight Powell. If he played 40 minutes a game, he'd average 30 points and 15 rebounds. So no, he wouldn't. He'd fell out. Yeah, isn't that always funny, though? He'd actually fell out is what would happen. That's when numbers guys will lose me and they'll be like, well, it's obvious with these rebounding rates, the guy should play more.

I'd be like, do you know how hard I would rebound if I played three of 20 minutes in a pickup game? Nobody factors that part in. Hey, Russillo, do you know how hard I would rebound if I played three of 20 minutes in a pickup game? Nobody factors that part in. Hey, Rosillo, go in for three minutes instead of 20. The other thing is three-pointers. They always, they never factor in the degree of difficulty

of somebody who's like carrying their offense and has to take basically three bad three-pointers a game because there's three seconds left in the shot clock versus like Jalen Brown's season right now. And he's shooting terribly on threes, but all his threes are wide open. So he's shooting 28% from three,

but they're 20% on wide open threes, which is way worse. Way worse. Yeah, than the guy who's like the primary dude at like 33 or something like that. Yeah, like Kemba Walker is like, what, 37? But I guarantee like one out of every eight of those is a terrible three with two seconds left.

Yeah, when you look at who is second and third scores on a Charlotte, like that's a different. That's like, like Clay's stats are really bad for him because he gets all good shots. He's in an offense where he is the two best decoys in the league. Every shot he takes is a great shot.

Are we going to title this one, does Clay Thompson suck and NFL picks? No, but he, that would be good. Coming up, I'm going to tell you why Clay Thompson does suck. suck and NFL picks. No, but he, that would be good coming up. I'm going to tell you why clay Thompson does suck. I have the Eagles. You're going to do a better greenie tease than that coming up. No,

be like, will clay Thompson sucking be the reason Durant leaves for the next, next year. It's coming up on get up. Stay with us. Should Jonas Jurepko be the reason Klay Thompson leaves Golden State?

I like Jurepko this year, by the way. I see you tweet about Jurepko all the time. Did you not watch him when he was at the Celtics? I loved him on the Celtics. For whatever reason,

I must have watched the wrong games. Yeah, I watched all the right games. I don't miss many Celtics games, but Jurepko, you know how I always have that rule about like, I just all the great games. I don't miss many Celtics games, but Jurebko, you know how I always have that rule about, like, I just feel like there's certain players

I feel like in my head I've never seen make a shot. Jurebko had a stretch from you to the Celtics where I was like, does he miss everything? But I know, like, you liked him

and he's actually worked out well for them. Great teammate. Swedish Larry Bird. Who do you have eighth? Some call him the Dutch Jan Vesely. Dutch Jan Vesely. Who do you have for? Some call him the Dutch Jan Vesely. Dutch Jan Vesely.

Who do you have for eighth? Let's see. I have, how do I not know who that is? Chicago. So I have Chicago. Oh, wow. Yeah. Holy shit.

Yeah, so the Trubisky stuff is real for me. Jesus. Yeah. That's like just anti-Trubisky, point blank. It is, yep. Okay, right in your face. We'll talk about them later. Kyle Long is back, though.

I have the Chargers seventh. I hate the matchup for them this week. I wish they weren't playing the Ravens. I love them. I have them third. Okay. Yeah. I'm going to the Super Bowl.

Really? Yeah. Make the case. Mike Williams coming along. Stud. Stud. We saw what he did in that Chiefs game and we saw what he did in college he's healthy like that Keenan Allen Williams

combo is terrific they can run it I love their edge guys and I really think that playing Lamar two weeks ago as I've already said you know haven't just played him I'd love to be in that spot like if you're sitting

there in that defensive room, we'll go over the film. Like, all right, dude, we know what we got here. Now it's a matter of being able to tackle them because it's actually that hard to do them. I don't know. I just into it, I guess. I think I'm buying into kind of like,

I can already see the Philip Rivers. It's going to be like 15 years of bullshit. And then Philip gets to sit up there and then all the TV shows are going to do the, is Phillip Rivers maybe better than Ben and Eli? When he's been better than those two guys the whole time. Wow, this is like just porn for Robert Mays right now. Rivers is his guy.

I just think it's, there's some cosmic shit going on. They'd lose. They'd lose this weekend. Yeah, I'm just picking them. Because I've just, I always think about how shows, how they graphic it in the morning. Maybe Rivers was the best? Yeah.

Who's your daddy now? A lot of that stuff. Did LaDainian Tomlinson hold him back? Yeah, that's a good one. I subscribe to that one. He was the Antonio Brown of last decade. Credit pie, how much is Charlie Whitehurst mentoring? Coming up next,

we got Charlie White. Charlie Whitehurst, he played with Phil Rivers for two years. He's going to have some insights. I don't know if Whitehurst was there

for two or 20, honestly. He might still be there. I have a... Good looking guy, though, in person. Handsome guy. You ever see him?

Handsome. He had these... Looks like James Brolin and Amy DeVoe Hart. I forget what girl he was with. Hopefully, it's the one he ever see him? Handsome. He had these. Looks like James Brolin and Amy DeVoe Hart. I forget what girl he was with. Hopefully it's the one he's dating.

But he was, he had like a hat on and everything was perfect. Every hair was perfect. You're jealous. Yeah, and he's just, I will admit his ass

looked awesome in these like black cowboy duster jeans. What the hell is going on right now? No, he just was in great shape. He's a big guy.

Hey, look, I. You do some, you'd lift on them? Yeah, I'm totally comfortable saying all these things. I observe,

I'm a great observer of the world. Great. I have the Chargers seventh. So not as high on them. They are 18- Should I have left out that Whitehurst stuff? They're plus,

no, I loved it. They're plus 1,800 to win the Super Bowl. Here's the case against them in a nutshell. West Coast team going back into Baltimore. Cold weather. A team that is really good at home

and has perennially been awesome at home and pulled out ugly games. And then, I don't know, from a coaching standpoint, it's Anthony Lynn versus John Harbaugh. Makes me nervous. It feels like the type of game the Chargers should have won, but they blow. And you're like,

oh my God. That feels like that every week, though. I can't believe the Chargers lost that game. They had it. What the hell? Lamar scrambled on that third and 17. So the case for the Chargers

is they had some resilient wins where they fell behind and rallied back and won. Every week, though, was, okay, here we go again. And it worked. The case against them is that's a dangerous game to play. You're behind, you're behind, you're down 10. Oh, we'll come back.

And then one time it's not there. I have the Rams at, who'd you have at seven? Houston. Okay. I have the Rams. I don't like their secondary. I have the Rams. I don't like their secondary. I have the Rams at six, plus 600. I actually think they're the one team other than the Cowboys,

which I just don't think are good enough. There's a little bit of nobody believes in us potential with them, which I think we have to watch carefully, where the Rams are kind of like the it team for a few weeks, and then everybody just jumped off them. And now it's like, oh, and they're just kind of over here.

Nobody's talking about them anymore, which is something you can rely on. It's like, oh, they're not going to win a Superbowl with golf. Golf's like shaky enough in a couple of games that I think they've kind of thrown golf's kind of thrown people off their scent, which could be a good thing for them.

This is really the best. So what you're talking about here is, would you rather be the team that everybody loved? I'd rather be the team that people are counting at. Okay, so then you're good then if you're the Rams. But there's a reason why we counted them out. This defense, which on paper was supposed to be awesome all year, wasn't. And Goff was bad for the last month.

Now, if Breeze is bad for the last month, I'm okay with that. He's going to the Hall of Fame, he's won a Super Bowl, and he's thrown for more yards than anybody else. I'm not going to be as strict with Breeze as I would be Goff. So I have the Rams fifth ahead of the Colts sixth, which I'm okay with.

That kind of feels right, and that this has more to do with the Rams having to go back into New Orleans again. And I was there for that game. Yeah. And it was a good game, but the Saints felt better that day. And I don't know, like at what point

will the Rams defense that we thought they paid for be a positive as opposed to it's sometimes a negative or just, you know, I don't, I can kind of sit there and tell you what I expect from the defense. I expect to be disappointed. I really liked what they had with of sit there and tell you what I expect from the defense. I expect to be disappointed. I really liked what they had with those three receivers and Gurley.

And I thought when Cup got hurt, I thought Reynolds was going to come in and just replace him. Oh, Cup is proving that he was a big player. And Cup was like, wow, Cup was really important to them and I didn't fully realize it. And, you know, basically him and Robert Woods

are both security blankets. Like what we were talking about with Brady earlier, where Edelman, he used to have Edelman and Amadol and the better version of Edelman. But he always had one of those two guys plus Gronk. And it's like, I have these three places to go on third and eight. And I think Goff had, he always had Woods, but then Cup was kind of his guy. And when I watch them now, I don't feel like he has a guy. It just feels like it's Woods. I definitely don't think Cooks is that guy. And when I watch him now, I don't feel like he has a guy. It just feels like it's

Woods. I definitely don't think Cooks is that guy. And then Gurley out of the backfield, everybody's ready for, especially in a playoff game. Nobody's going to let him get screen passes. So it just puts a lot of pressure on Reynolds. I don't think a running back beats you as much as it was like, oh, stop the run, run the football and all that stuff that we grew up with. I don't, I can't think of a running back that I'd be like, okay, everything's neutral, except they have a huge advantage at running back so then I'm going to pick them.

It's more running game than running back. Yeah, that's fine. To keep you, keep you having to, you still have to respect us. When we turn around and hand it off,

you still have to respect it. You have to bring a guy down. All that kind of stuff. But Cooks is not the route runner that Woods is. I mean, this is why Cooks is on his third team. Like, congrats for getting paid.

Congrats for, you know, always being traded for first rounder. But, like, I've always thought the Cooks conversation was kind of funny in that it's like, I can't believe people keep getting rid of this guy. You're like, well, sometimes I defer to the team that moves on from him when it's two smart teams. It seemed like for my year with him on the Pats,

it seemed like he could only run two routes. Yeah, Woods is a great – I mean, I've loved Woods ever since he was at USC. I think he's actually really underrated as a guy. But maybe the Rams are in this perfect spot. But they did it. They are not the hot team because they haven't been hot. And this isn't like the tide just turned on them unfairly. They've given us the evidence here to change our minds about them.

A little bit. I mean, if they won the whole thing, I'm not going to be shocked either. There's a best-case scenario for them, though. Best-case scenario for the Rams, which we've not going to be shocked either. There's a best case scenario for them though. Best case scenario for the Rams, which we've now had to do three takes of. The Chiefs. The Bears come there in round two if the Bears take care of-

Philly. Of Philly. And they have Trubisky in the road. And you're just hoping Trubisky just melts down completely. Now in the other game, you have Seattle takes care of Dallas. They go to New Orleans. Russell Wilson in the Superdome does some Russell Wilson thing. The punter puts four punts inside the three-yard line.

Just one of those games. And now all of a sudden, the Rams are home against Seattle in the NFC Championship game. That's the roadmap for them to make the Super Bowl. I don't think they can win in New Orleans. I don't think so either. I don't think anybody's going to win in Super Bowl. I don't think they can win in New Orleans. I don't think so either. I don't think anybody's going to win in New Orleans. I don't. So that's kind of, I mean, that's why I have the Saints going to the

Super Bowl. I know it's chalk, but they're just a different team down there, and that's why the one seed for them was probably as important as any team in the league. I have the Pats at five there. Oh, I'm sorry, the Rams were six to one. I have the Pats at number five there, plus 625. And the case for them

is basically how how these seeds in the bye week broke for them. And the fact that they might be able to play Houston in round two who they've beaten consistently.

And then they're going to luck out with whatever happens in the other game. What if though Belichick lost to Vrabel Patricia, which has to

like if I was good friends with Belichick, I would be texting and be like, how'd you lose to Matt Patricia? He's making some friends there in Detroit, huh? What if he lost to Bill O'Brien? I don't think he ever loses to Bill O'Brien. Yeah, but I would have never thought he was going to lose to Matt Patricia. I think he threw that game because he felt bad.

I think Belichick, I think that was point shaving. You're probably right. He didn't betick. I think that was point shaving. You're probably right. He didn't bet on it. He just mentally point shaved. He just felt bad. The guy used to work for him. He wanted to get a win on TV. Just threw it away.

Like that pencil thing, man. I have the Chiefs fourth, plus 475. Wait a minute. So you have them fourth? Yeah. You really hate that Chiefs fourth, plus 475. Wait a minute. So you have them fourth? Yeah. You really hate that Chiefs defense. I do. I don't like...

So the only thing I can remember that remotely approached this was that year the Colts won the Super Bowl. Oh, right. So that defense was so bad against the run. But then remember all of a sudden Bob Sanders came back and at least he was able to like come flying in and tackle some dudes. Now I remember doing that whole thing

and if you really added it all up, the Bob Sanders part of it is how it's always remembered. Like Bob Sanders came back because they were, I think you had to go all the way back to 1981 for a team that was so bad against the run that actually advanced

and went through the whole thing. And then yeah, it just was was weird at the right time. And actually, the way it played out for them in the NFC title game was really the only way that team could have won, where they just fell way behind and kind of threw the other team off what they were doing. The other team had

so much success, and then the momentum of the second half kind of swung their way. But I felt like the Patriots were better than them that year. And out of all the Patriots losses, that's the dumbest one to me. That's the dumbest one. Even the Giants losing those two Super Bowls,

like the Giants outplayed them in 07. Giants were better. You watch that game and it's like, eh, the Giants kind of deserve to win. 11, both of them were terrible. That was just a clusterfuck. Right. But that Colts game, I'm like, man,

I don't know how the Patriots used that. You get to play the Bears. Then you get Rex Grossman. And both teams are going, we just, like our ring is waiting for us. Yeah, that was the Super Bowl.

Yeah. Who do you have fifth and fourth? I have the Rams fifth. I have the Pats fourth. I don't think, you know, we've already been over this,

but the beating the Bills and Jets thing, you know, that's just a benefit of the doubt thing here for New England at some point. Like, I don't think, you know, we've already been over this, but the beating the Bills and Jets thing, you know, that's just a benefit of the doubt thing here for New England at some point. Like, I'm not going to put Indy ahead of them. Who do you have third? I have the Chargers third. Okay. I have the Ravens third at 18-1. That's insane.

I know. You really think at the end of this four, you're going with the just run them 20 times a game, and maybe it works, and their defense is awesome. I cannot imagine Lamar winning this thing. To me, it's a pure matchup thing. Round one, I like the matchup. Round two, I already know they can beat the Chiefs.

I think their offense against the Chiefs' defense has all the makings of what we saw the last time, where they just had the ball for 41 minutes. And it's just 40 seconds of pop, run, run, third and three, first down. So that game— Changed the clock. Those fourth down conversions, the fact that the Ravens could have won it like three different times there.

Like, you are all in on that. I'm not all in. I'm just all in. I just think they're a safer bet than the Chiefs. I don't like teams that just can't get stops. The Chiefs are like if they're down four and they just need to stop the other team's

offense once, I don't think they're going to be able to do it. That's before you get into all the Andy Reid and all the baggage they have and the fact that they have their third string running back. It just makes me nervous. The one good thing in their favor is their special teams have been the fact that they have their third string running back. And it just makes me nervous. The one good thing in their favor is their special teams have been great. And they might have the ability to swing a game.

I think their special teams either first or second DVOA, but they have the ability to get a big return at the perfect spot or punt block or whatever the hell. I just like the Ravens. I think the Ravens are good. And I don't think Lamar is a perfect QB, but whatever they got going with him,

I think you can win with that in January. That's my take. I just can't see them winning four games that way. I just don't. Well, so here's the roadmap, though. They win that game, KC, and then they get the Pats in round three, potentially, and that's a team they've always had success against.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, because Ray Rice broke off a big run, you know, seven. You know, look, sometimes like. That game was a, that game, the Pats got killed in one of those games. Killed in that one. And then they had the field goal game in the other one. But my thing with the three, four, five Ravens, Chiefs, Pats, I think it's all even.

I just can't believe you have the Ravens that high. I just don't think that the Lamar thing would hold up over a month. I think that 3-4-5, I think that's a clump for me. I could have put the Pats 3- So what do you have, too? I have the Bears 2 and the Saints 1. Oh, my God. Yeah.

Yeah. So you have the Bears 2 and I have have them. I know. Seventh? I like defense more than you this year, though. Their defense is that kind of special. Their defense is, if they have a lead and they can keep it, they will be able to protect the lead. And I like that. And I like the fact, I think they stumbled into a running game these last four weeks that they figured out the Cohen-Howard thing

in a way that I think I feel good about now. Yeah, I didn't expect this from Howard to close the season. Yeah. He goes off and- I had him on my fantasy team all year. I was waiting for it, and it just never happened. And then they finally figured it out. You played him the last week.

I was done already. I was already done. Part of the reason I was done was because of Jordan Howard. But I like the matchups for them too, because if they can get by the Eagles, then round two is the Rams. And we already discussed, their defense just hasn't been good. And if you're trying to get Trubisky's feet against the right team. And if you have the Bears going to LA too, it's not like going down to New Orleans.

It's not like going to Arrowhead. The other thing with the Bears that I've noticed, the first quarter is supernaturally important for them. They script out all the plays. Trubisky knows exactly what he's doing the first 12, 15, or whatever. And that's as good as he's going to be in that first quarter. And then if they can get that lead, then now you hand it to your defense. Now you're just doing run plays, and you're just basically not letting Trubisky fuck this up for you.

I think they can beat the Rams that way. As this whole thing started with him, you're like, is this real? Is this real? Is this real? And then you're like, I guess it is real. Yeah. And I've watched him a bunch.

And from that opening week against Green Bay, where I thought it was painfully obvious to any football fan that they didn't trust him at all. They didn't. They trust him more now. They do. Which is great. I just wouldn't trust him enough.

Maybe this is the changing of the NFL, and that if you do have that kind of defense and that the quarterback numbers, it's almost like three-point shooting now. I don't know what to do with Harden in comparison to some of these greats or the run that he's been on. Because pace is almost catching up to what

pace used to be, okay? When you used to have these absurd rebounding games, you'd be like, how did Bill Russell have 40 rebounds? You're like, well, look at the shot attempts, look at the pace that we've played at. How did the big O end up with his triple-double? Well, look at the pace. That's why, in a way, Westbrook's triple-double is more impressive now. So when I think about

quarterback numbers and what you need to win maybe I'm still a little caught up in the old-fashioned thing of like dude the NFL playoffs like give me a guy that I can trust like do you really want to pick Trubisky in one of these spots but what we've seen with Nagy and head coach and these offenses and around this league is that maybe the bottom for that position has come up to a point where that's the new NFL. It isn't about making sure you have one of those five guys. It's that making sure that even if your guy isn't as good as 10 or 15 other quarterbacks,

he's still going to get production with the way the game is called with the places that are open in the middle of the field. And being able to scramble on third downs and stuff. I would throw in one other thing. I think there's two types of quarterbacks, and I include them... Would you call them the white Lamar Jackson? No, Josh Allen.

Josh Allen is the white Josh Allen. No, I think quarterbacks, there's two versions of them, right? It's the quarterback when he's ahead and the quarterback when he's behind. The Trubisky when he's ahead, I think quarterbacks, there's two versions of them, right? It's the quarterback when he's ahead and the quarterback when he's behind. The Trubisky when he's ahead, I actually like when it's somebody like, oh, the Bears are going to run the ball. Whoop, they're not running it this time.

Whoa, there he goes. And I think that Trubisky is dangerous. The Trubisky that you don't want is the, we're down eight. Yeah, the third and eight guys. We're down 10 and we need two scores, Trubisky. That's the Trubisky I want no part of from a gambling standpoint. That happens in college all the time. There's teams third and eight more, third and seven.

I'm like, I don't even have to watch. You can't convert this. But this was the Bortles issue, right? Yeah, and there's quarterbacks in the NFL, believe it or not, where I go, oh, this is. But we saw this with Bortles last year. They played Pittsburgh in round one. Everything goes right.

They have a huge lead against Pittsburgh. Or they play, I'm sorry, round two, not round one. They beat Tennessee in round one barely. What was it, like 9-0? It was one of the worst games of all time. Every Tennessee game is the worst game of all time. Round two, Pittsburgh, everything goes right. Huge lead.

And we're like, whoa, maybe Bortles. I don't know. New England, round three. Another one. Everything goes right in huge lead. And we're like, whoa, maybe Bortles. I don't know. New England, round three, another one. Everything goes right in the first half. It's like, whoa, Bortles. And then when they actually need him in the second half, he can do it. And then that transfer of this year,

I actually think Trubisky is better than Bortles. Because he can pull some throws out of his ass every once in a while. On the flip side, I think about betting on him in round two against the Rams and Aaron Donald's coming at him and Trubisky will do that. He'll just panic. He'll do these panic passes. That's the thing I worry about with him.

Yeah, I'm not as sold on him even though this defense is absolutely off the charts. 11-1 odds for them. So you have Lamar and Trubisky in your top three? Yeah, but I told you, 3-4-5 to me is all, they might as well be 3-A-3-B-3-C. The Ravens, Chiefs, Pats, I just think any of those three can win. I think it's going to be like the NFL always is,

where it's going to come down to who's the dude on the Patriots that year in the Ravens game who stripped the receiver to get the Pats to the Super Bowl the second time they played the Giants. Sterling Moore. Yeah, Sterling Moore. It's going to come down to like a Sterling Moore play. It's going to be two of the Pats, Chiefs, Ravens, and whoever goes to the Super Bowl,

it's going to be Sterling Moore stripping some dude in the end zone after he caught the winning touchdown pass. And that's what it's going to play. It is a great field, though. It's awesome. This is awesome. And I know I make the Tennessee joke, but there isn't that kind of – No.

We don't have Connor Cook going up against – Have you remember that game last year? No. I think the reason we like it is all the quarterbacks, you have really good quarterbacks, plus Lamar and Trubisky and... Dak. Well, I think Dak's at least, you know, he's thrown for 400 yards. He's had games where he's like... I'm actually not as anti-Dak as everybody else.

It's just hard to look at the overall numbers of like the team offensively and you just go, all right. So we both have the Saints won at plus 225. Yes. I think they are the clear number one. I'm not too- At home? Yeah.

I'm not too scared by how they looked the last five weeks because I think home, Thomas Kamara, the crowd, to me, the safest pick is to pick the Saints to make the Super Bowl. Unless some team decides to just go at their corners, because they leave those guys out there a lot, and just take shot after shot after shot, maybe that's what the Rams do.

Maybe the Rams in the rematch go, okay, we know how they want to play us. And it was a really good game, even though the Saints kind of got up on them, and then the Rams got back into it a little bit. They're scoring 30 at home. They're scoring 30 at home against everybody. I mean, I guess unless Chicago ends up there, maybe that'd be a little different.

But yeah, the Saints on paper, I don't know what the argument against it is in saying that now their path isn't as easy because they don't have to leave. Coming up, I'm going to tell you how to turn $1,000 into $55,000 right after this. Hey, we all put off doing things we know we need to do. We know we need to organize the garage or return our great aunt's call, but something always gets in the way. Security can be like that too. You know it's a good idea.

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All right, I want to talk Super Bowl matchup odds really quick. There's one crazy one that jumped out to me. Eagles-Ravens. If you bet on the Eagles Ravens Super Bowl 170 to 1 odds where do we bet? 170 to 1

if we played this whole playoff thing 170 times that's the Super Bowl once yeah at least maybe twice Eagles Chargers you mentioned how much you like the Chargers 160 to 1 twice. Eagles Chargers. You mentioned how much you like the Chargers.

160-1. Now, I think the Eagles are going to lose in round one. I'm just throwing it out. Are you laying the six with Chicago, or are you taking the six? Well, we're going to get to that. Here's the long odds bets. By the way, I do not recommend betting Super Bowl odds because you're just better

at betting it game by game versus betting a future thing. You are good betting matchup odds. Matchup odds, you actually get good value. And this is my favorite bet. Sal and House and I have already done this, so we're not going to move the odds. Bears-Ravens, 55 to 1.

Trubisky and Lamar Jackson. How is that 55 to one, but Eagles Ravens is 160? 170 to one. Because the Bears are favored, they're two and a half to one favorites. Right, right. Well, they also, they do it by whoever's betting it. If nobody's betting that, they just keep it where it is. 55 to one, Ravens Bears.

That would be... No, I just... Lamar and Trubisky, the storylines all week. So who's your Super Bowl pick? It's Saints-Chargers. Saints-Chargers. Looks like plus 140... Wait a minute.

That's a weird one. 1,450. So I guess you bet 200 to win 2,900, basically. You bet 1,000 to win 100 to win 1,450. So it's almost 50 to 1 odds, basically. We got there. Yeah, got there eventually. It's a hair under 50 to 1.

145. But those aren't great odds i'd rather just bet all those games game by game versus doing that no but you're you're the like whenever anybody does this future stuff i go well i'm just gonna lose that why would i why would i bet a thousand bucks on that because it's not gonna happen but if you just kept doing it enough like don't you think you'd win one out of 170 bets to make up? You know what I'm saying? Well, last year, Eagles-Pats would have paid off pretty well, I think.

Yeah, but not 160, not 170. No, not like that. Eagles-Pats this year, 60 to one. Big dick neck against Brady, the rematch. Let's do it. Imagine if Belichick lost to Foles twice. God.

Well, he lost to Eli Manning twice. What's worse than that? Foles, losing to Foles twice god well he lost to Eli Manning twice what's worse than that Foles losing to Foles twice Eli Manning is like the Fredo the fucking Manning family and we lost to him twice see again

I would love to know if like Belichick had a buddy he was banging cocktail waitresses two at a time don't you know I am a Mo Green I'm really ready for the Godfather rewatch of us don't you know I am a Mo Green? I'm really ready for the Godfather rewatch of us. It's like the two at a time thing.

Fredo was so good, especially in the beginning when they're at the wedding. And Michael just is totally morphed up. He comes up drunk to him. Hey, Mike. Yeah, but his date is just a mess. Yeah. And then Michael's like, take care of this. Take care of this. Yeah, he liked those is just a mess. Yeah. And then Michael's like, take care of this. Take care of this.

Yeah, he liked those cocktail wishes, man. Seahawks-Pats is 45 to 1. The consensus favorite seems like it should be Saints-Chiefs. That's plus 315. Saints-Pats is plus 375. I want it to be Lamar Trubisky now, though, because I want to see the TV shows graphics. I want to see the graphics.

Well, all the college people would go nuts for that, right? Well, they would. I mean, I talked to Larry Fedora when he was, you know, he had Trubisky there and Larry's a good guy

and he came by and I was like, so what do you think? And it was, I'm always fascinated with like what a guy doesn't say, right? Like the other night

I was talking to an NBA GM and I got the sense of, it wasn't that he, what he was saying yes or no to to it was how he was answering the question where i'm like oh wait like this guy's telling me something here and when larry i asked about trubisky and he just goes well you know you're gonna make sure and it just he listed like seven prerequisites of what he needed to see m survive. And it was like, it may take a year, maybe longer. I'm like, oh, all right. So you don't think he's like, it just felt like you don't think he's ready or this thing may not work out. And then you add in like what Lamar was in college. And then even Eric Weddle going, dude, when he showed up at camp, we're like, oh my God,

you know, like Weddle said this recently publicly. If that were to happen, the amount of people saying that you should just change the way you should build your team and how you should look at the quarterback position. I can't, I would almost root for that just to see what kind of content we would get from people. Cause it'd be absurd. Everybody would lose their minds and start saying the dumbest shit ever about the position. We were together when the Patriots passed on him twice. You were upset about it. Your father's still upset about it. I just felt like at the end of the first round,

if you have a chance to get a quarterback who could start in a playoff game, you have to take them. You just have to. I feel like I ain't running back anytime. And as it turned out, they took the wrong running back from the college. I'd rather have Nick Chubb. They took the second best Georgia running back. Yeah, Chubb's been awesome

Chubb's much better than Bichelle come on that was terrible right then you have the lineman who gets hurt right away I don't know about taking a first rounder and a quarterback when you still have Brady there Brady's 41 we've all lost our minds on this he's 41 remember Manning

it's like ah Manning could keep going then one year Manning was just over that's going to to brady soon no i've never been one of those things to be like all right that's cool you avoid the night shades but like you're just gonna play at 45 and be sick like that doesn't make any sense do you think brady has like a dirk nowitzki season like what we're seeing with dirk now where he comes out he just like can't move anymore i watched the other night because you watch luca it's so depressing i hate it he needs an intervention every single time he moves i think he's gonna break it looks like he's gonna follow I watched Earth the other night because you watch Luca. It's so depressing. It's so bad. I hate it. He needs an intervention. Every single time he moves, I think he's going to break.

It looks like he's going to fall. It looks like he's on ice skates. How does that happen? He's 40. Is that what I look like at pick-up games now? This is why I stopped playing pick-up. Quickly, before we get to the picks. So I do the playoff manifesto every year.

Most of these rules don't apply for round one because it's a pretty chalk round one matchup. It's like eight teams that are fairly reliable. There's a couple that I thought were worth mentioning quick. Rule number three was don't try to talk yourself into a nobody believes in us team. Rams? Rams are the closest,

and I feel like I'm talking myself into it a little bit because they did get a bye week you know what we should at least like it sounded a little anti-Rams at time like they're good yeah they are a great coach right so like the idea that the Rams could be going to the Super Bowl it's not far no one's gonna go oh how the hell did that happen but yes they're finishing off cold or the same stuff that we said about the defense the whole time but I think it's almost just worth repeating like I don't think either you were sitting here going I feel like you know I kind of don't like is that Rams team it's not anti Rams but Lamar Jackson and Trubisky

might be the nobody believes in us guys this year you just sounds like you love just railed against them I think I'm in the minority so I don't feel like there's a full-fledged team yet like last year with Bortles is like Bortles no fucking way are they winning in wherever and then he would win. And then

the Eagles in the Super Bowl, same thing. Winning the Super Bowl with Nick Foles. Get the fuck out of here. I know. I sat there for that whole time because I'm like, that Pats defense sucks. It sucks. It sucks. It sucks. And then I go, there's no way Belichick's losing to Nick Foles. Yeah, come on. It's Nick Foles. This is an interesting one. Rule number five. Beware of

the everybody believes in us team. The opposite. It's dangerous to be the team everybody believes in us team. The opposite. It's dangerous to be the team everybody believes in. But I think the Saints, there's enough of a, eh, last five weeks, are we sure? Like, why'd they tail off that? It's not a juggernaut. I don't think everybody's like,

the fucking Saints, lock them in, man. Well, then there isn't one then. If it's not the Saints. There isn't one. Right. Because enough people are anti-the Chiefs defense. I wanted to make sure it wasn't the Saints. And the Chiefs, definitely not. No, in New England, even though everybody's scared to death to doubt them, I don't know.

Rule number 11 is don't ever talk yourself into a terrible QB ever for any reason. There's no terrible QB in this entire playoff, so we don't have to worry about that. Rule number 10, when in doubt, gravitate toward one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts and would definitely go against the single worst gambler

you know i don't feel like there's a obvious round one pick i think that's one of the reasons i like round one you can make all eight teams there's a case to be made right well the line is telling you that on three of them already you know that basically Vegas sees him even in three of the matchups. Rule number 13. Now, this applies. Before you wager on a team, make sure that Marty Schottenheimer, Herm Edwards, Wade Phillips, Norv Turner, Andy Reid, Dan Quinn, John Fox, Jason Garrett, anyone named Mike,

anyone described as Andy Reid's pupil, and anyone with the last name Mora isn't their head coach. We have Jason Garrett in round one. How many? All right, so we're going to the Mikes. No, I don't think there's a Mike. Bill O'Brien, if he blows the Indianapolis game, I'm throwing him into Rule 13.

The anti-Bill O'Brien stuff is weird to me. They've had awful quarterbacks, and he still made the playoffs down there. Okay. You're not even—this is the most dismissive you've been on the podcast. I'm giving you a couple props before we get to the lines. Seahawks, Cowboys, or Ravens, Chargers. Will there be an overtime plus 900? Yeah, give me an overtime.

Which one? Feels Ravens Chargers feels a little overtime-ish, right? Yeah, I can see Rivers losing the toss. Losing his shit. Plus 900. So you do two of those

you bet 100 on each and you're basically risking 200 to win 900 that one of those two games goes into overtime. What about a tie? What's the- Tiger King.

Somebody's listening to the podcast being like, what? You're going to love this one. How come they don't have a prop for ties? Bears-Eagles. Will there be a defensive or special teams touchdown plus 210? No. You've got Trubisky on one end. Yeah.

Give the Bears defense on the other end. Basically, you're betting on is Foles going to give it to Clue Mac at some point. Or Fumble or whatever. Jackson. I'm not doing it. I thought it was a good one. Most passing yards in round one.

Luck is the favorite at plus 250. Watson is plus 400. I think you could make the case pretty strongly that most passing yards is going to come from that game. Yeah, we go luck there against that secondary. Plus 250. TY's numbers in the two games against them, he's put up big numbers. He's like, yeah, 13 for 314.

Well, the other thing, Houston's run defense is first. So hard to run against them. You actually have to throw it against them. Most rushing yards. How about this one? Lamar. Plus 700. So, you go through. It's like, alright, Zeke, Gus Edwards.

Zeke was the favorite. He's like plus 250. But see, I wouldn't bet on Zeke yeah it's not because the odds well one of the payoffs Chris Carson was 8-1 yeah Carson's not bad Carson's had a really

nice season kind of like Lamar though yeah like a 17 for 145 yeah why not type of running thing he's just going to break one and you're in it

yeah because I think the Zeke thing is hey let's stop Zeke you know you can't I don't think you can actually the Pats have done good jobs with this so we'll return back to that but like Zeke thing is, hey, let's stop Zeke. You know, you can't, I don't think you can actually, the Pats have done good jobs with this,

so we're turning back to that, but like, the dumb teams, and I'm not saying the Chargers, the Chargers aren't in that category, but like dumb teams would always screw up the running quarterback thing. Like, this guy's just running wild the whole time. You'd be like, hey, you notice how the smart teams build the pocket, make them stay in the pocket

the whole time? Like, have any of you other guys that coach in the NFL thought about trying to do that there too? So I don't know that the Chargers fall in that dumb category of running wild, but if he breaks one big one, then you're halfway there, man. Receiving, other than Hopkins, who's the favorite? Doug Baldwin, 12 to 1. I love Doug Baldwin.

I was thinking this is kind of a Doug Baldwin game. He's so, I mean, look, he's not like Hopkins underrated versus their tier, but whatever tier Baldwin is talked about being in, he's in the one above it. Yeah. So out of all those props, which one do you like? Overtime? Or you like Luck?

I think the Luck one is the easiest. Plus 250. I would say if you're doing FanDuel Fantasy this weekend, Luck would be my QB choice. I don't... A lot of the other ones, I don't have a lot of good feel, but I just feel like Luck goes for like 375. And there's no game plan. Why would they be like, hey, we're going to run it at him.

We're going to throw him off. Luck will do the thing, though, where he will just throw it to the other team. At least once in a game, or they'll drop the interception, but he will not throw a no-hitter. He will absolutely give you one. The cerebral, always, like, and I stuck up for him for so long, and I'm glad to see him be good again,

but there's always a throw every now and then where you're like, what are you doing? He had one Sunday night. It was like, what the fuck was that? The guy ran it back. It single-handedly brought Tennessee back in the game. Cost us a chance to bet against Blaine Gabbert in round one.

All right, here are the games and we're going to do million-dollar picks right now. We are up over $5 million in million-dollar picks. For real? We're up $5.1 million. Yeah.

Yeah. You're going to get a check for $5 million? God, things are going good at the ringer. We're up 5 point... We're up $5,095,000. We're a hot dog.

And the sad thing is we didn't do million dollar picks last week and I would have won because I had the Eagles teased with like three things. I love the Eagles in a tease last week. That was my big one. Eagles Redskins. Houston Indy. Houston is favored by one and a half. I really like the Colts. This to me is a perfect storm matchup for me because I've never been totally impressed by Houston. I think they stole

some games that they shouldn't have won. They do a couple of good things. I'm scared of Hopkins. I don't think they run the ball very well. I'm not that impressed by their home field advantage. I really like Luck. I think they can block the Houston front four, which is a game changer because if you can block that front four, you can do whatever you want against them. And I just like the spot. I think they have a better coach. I think they can move the ball.

It's one of the five teams in the league that I feel like they're down four or they're up three. They're just going to be able to put together the 80-yard drive. And I like that. I wish I was getting three, but I'm not going to overthink it. I am putting 1.1 million to win a million on the Colts, plus one and a half, Ryan. So the money line is, what's the money line?

The money line is basically even. So you're grabbing an extra point, basically. I don't mind getting the extra point because the Texans have played some goofy games. I also like Vinatieri, I should mention, too. I love that he's still, I love that I'm still younger. I just like having him and having money on him is great. It's always a key for me, too, to be younger than one pro athlete. I love that.

He's got the white beard. He's got a whiter beard than I do. That Giants game, even though it was against the Giants in Week 16, is everything you're talking about. The Giants are up on them. You're like, are you guys really going to screw this up against the Giants?

Although the Giants played some teams tougher towards the end of the year. But that's all the things you just said. Luck going, all right, I guess I got to run back. I'm going to be back here slinging it for 30 straight minutes. Every throw has to be perfect

and I have to optimize every one of these possessions because we just we got down to these guys and that's why i like them and that's why i take the points you know the minimal points here it's one and a half um my only fear of it is it looks too obvious but i do think there's enough people on houston respecting them. And Watson is scary. It's scary to bet against him. And I'm not going to enjoy it. I do not like having money against Deshaun Watson. He burned me a couple times this year.

From a DVOA standpoint, this is the only one where the line actually doesn't reflect the DVOA. Indy is eighth overall in DVOA. And Houston's 11th. So you have an underdog that actually is better from an advanced metric standpoint. Are you looking at the weighted DBOA? Or are you looking at the overall or the gambling version of it? I'm looking at the weighted. Okay. I care about the weighted.

No, you might be better off doing it that way. I just write it down differently. So I want to make sure I didn't do it wrong. They're better both ways. Second game. Dallas-Seattle. It frightens me how much I like Seattle in this game. I feel like everybody just hates Dallas.

They're mad they're even in the playoffs. They're mad that Garrett's going to stay. They're mad at Dak Prescott. It's fun to root against Jerry Jones' whole thing. Here's a stat for you. Dallas won 10 games. Eight of them by seven points or less. One by eight.

They only had one game where they won by 10 plus. That was Jacksonville. They won by 33. They tend to play close games. Their win streak, if you actually go through go through all the wins that they had it's really like the best one was the Saints game

that was a Thursday night I hate overreacting to the Thursday night games you're not giving them because a lot of these teams sometimes you're like where's your best win? Give me your best win. They have good wins. They beat the Eagles twice.

I know, but did you watch that Eagles game? Yeah, I watched it. I thought the Eagles got hosed in that game. I thought they got hosed with calls. I thought the OT thing was goofy. I didn't come away from that. I felt like I came away from that game feeling like Dallas stole it. And by the way, Wentz was the QB in that game, not Foles.

So wait a minute, we're on... Big Dick Nick was there. We're on the... Not there. Wentz held them back deal? Yeah. Oh, we're on it.

Wentz was actually pretty good in that game. I planted a flag on that. He was actually good in that game, though. BD Nick is the dude. I like Seattle, too,

because I like Russell. I like how they've reinvented this defense. I like that Carson... I don like Russell. I like how they've reinvented this defense. I like that Carson, I don't know that anybody, I mean, other than fantasy people being excited about his nine touchdowns this year, but there's a more, like I thought this thing was going to be over for them. It looked like it was going to be over. It seemed like a rebuilding year. I just love Russell. I just trust him so much. I do. And so that even on the road, I just don't see them losing i mean

dallas's defense is probably better than we're giving it credit for we keep talking about dad we keep talking about all the other parts of this but i am with you um on seattle well there's also a little romo hangover from the extra point game i think bobby what that was they'll be showing the clip almost 10 years ago dallas fans they remember they remember. I'm not saying they forget. I don't like having the hangover. Okay, but imagine coming out of the tunnel and being a defensive end. I'm not talking about the players. I'm talking about the fans. They look up and they see it on the jumbotron and be like,

ah, hey, I was motivated before I saw that. I'm not talking about the players. I'm talking about karma and the whole thing with the Cowboy fans. Just like, oh, fuck Seattle. House of Horrors for us. That's the worst reason anybody's come up with on a podcast I'm throwing it in there that's what I do and by the way Amari Cooper

for all the that was weird how that happened because nobody knew what to do there they wanted to hate Jerry Jones for overpaying for receiver and then he was great then he got good and then it was like cool we get to hate Gruden again because that's more fun because we hate Gruden but Cooper has he's I don't know I hated that trade.

You hated it? I hated it for Dallas. I thought it was idiotic. He's cooled off a bit is my point. I know, but he's 24. It made sense. The risk was that they would be giving a top 10 pick to the Raiders and they're not now. It was the right trade. I also

like the Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll versus Jason Garrett. And I like their special teams. And I really feel like their special teams can swing this game. You love their punter. I love the punter and I like their kick returners. And I think they can, I think that's worth like four to seven points in this game.

And there's going to be one moment where that special team swings something. And I don't really want to get bet against Wilson. I just want, well, if I have money on this and my life depending on it, I want my money on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks and that infrastructure versus the fucking Clapper and Dak Prescott,

who I don't trust at all. And Omar Cooper has never been in a big game in his life. If you and Jason Garrett were at a cocktail party, like say the Cowboys don't- The Clapper? Yeah, don't make it all the way. And then you're in Atlanta, you know, doing some kind of high-end deal with Roomba

vacuums or something. That sounds like a dig. Somehow that turned into a dig. No, I don't think it was a dig. It was like a drive-by shooting. Right. So you and Garrett are hanging out. Would you say hi? Or would you say, I've been making fun of you all year, calling you a clapper. All year? It's been like five years. Would it be

uncomfortable? How would you handle it? Probably would not pursue an interaction. What if he came up to you and said, hey, fuck boy. You act like that hasn't happened to me in my life. Who came after you? Oh, there's been some good ones. What's the best one? There was one movie director who was not happy with something that I wrote.

Oh, come on. Pulled me aside at a bar and- How young were you? It was like 10 years ago. So you're still out and about. Yeah. He grabbed you at a bar. It wasn't like we were going to fight.

He just was really upset about what I wrote. Fuck you, Iron Man. It's incredible. You don't understand the arc. I'll tell you after. It was great though. So I got Seattle plus one and a half. Ravens Chargers.

Ravens are two and a half point favorites. I'm going a half bet on this. I'm not going a full unit. I'm doing 550 to win 500 on the Ravens. We just spent an hour on the Ravens and how excited you are about it. But you don't like this line. Something about the line scares me. I don't know what it is, but the minus two and a half freaks me out.

I also don't like how the Chargers always tend to play these games where it's like, they're down nine. They're up 12. Why are they going for two? They shouldn't. Oh, they got it. It's like math gets thrown out the window. What chart do they have?

And I could totally see the Ravens winning this game by two. And so I'm going to half unit that one. But I do like them. And then the last one, the Chicago minus six. The minus six scares me for some reason. Because they want you to bet Chicago there. I know. I'm going to do something a little dramatic here.

I'm doubling down on the Seahawks in a tease. I'm teasing them the plus seven and a half. And I'm teasing the Bears down to even for another tease. I'm teasing them the plus seven and a half, and I'm teasing the Bears down to even for another million. Bears just have to win. Seahawks, seven and a half. So they win seven or less. That was why I mentioned the Dallas thing before. When Dallas wins, they tend to win these close games. They don't tend to win by 10 or more, which I like with Seattle. Even if Dallas somehow wins, I think it's close. So that is the fourth bet for me. And then just for the hell of it, 125K to win 1.15 million.

Colts, Ravens, Seahawks, Bears, all to win because I think those are the four winners this week. Colts, Ravens, Seahawks, Bears, just to win. And there you go. Colts, Ravens. So we disagree on two. We both have Seahawks. We both have Colts. I have Chargers. And I would take the six if I had to bet it that way with Philadelphia. Yeah, I wish it was like four. There's like this extra three points in there.

I don't really understand because with the momentum the Eagles have. When you guys did guess the line, were you guys lower on that, I assume? No, I figured they would jack it up. But I thought it would come down as the week went along, and it just hasn't. Because I do feel like there's some real Trubisky trepidation. Some trepidisky. Trepidisky? You should trademark that.

Trepidisky? Making the next ringer t-shirt? Kyle, write that down. We have it in gray and Heather. That's it. We're done. Now you can go cough up a lung or do whatever the hell. This is a gamer performance by you today. I know.

I feel bad. Old school Massachusetts performance. This is fun. I'm really looking Old school Massachusetts performance. This is fun. I'm really looking forward to round one. And I can't believe that the first game is actually going to be good for once in our lives. Yeah, there's always been some of those Saturday ones. We call it the shaky special. Yeah, we're like, yeah.

Yeah, it's usually, it's when you get seen. I mean, I've watched it. I mean, how many times have you not watched it? You watch it, but then you're pissed. You're like, I could have gone outside. Who was the guy who started for the Raiders two years ago connor cook right but who'd he go up against it was it was it osweiler i remember what was the raiders game now i'm gonna yeah it was osweiler versus connor cook right and it happened to be the espn game and of course we were all pumped in the

hallway for that one classic i remember talking myself into connor cook to at least cover and then khalil mack walked right by him at the start of the game and didn't like give him a high five or anything and i was like oh man they're they're done he's not even acknowledging his own quarterback let me see that was it let's check it yeah i yeah osweiler connor cook i remember i was in uh in a hotel in tampa that weekend so i just sat in a hotel room by myself and watched that game and boy was that a blast uh but connor was the guy i remember he was he was he went 18 to 46 yeah 18 to 45 they let him chuck it bill because they were down 20 immediately he had a qbr of four yeah that's out of 100 not 40 i miss having i miss having a shitty quarterback in round one we we just said

you're thrilled that we don't have it no No, but I miss the comedy of it. There's going to be no comedy for many of these eight quarterbacks, I don't feel like. No, the other thing with Cook, too, was he was the guy that teammates didn't like. Remember? Right. That was one of the draft things.

Slap him. Yeah, but at Michigan State, that was like the knock on him. Whenever you hear that, like I've never understood, like I might suck at stuff, but i know that people like me like it would always be the worst to be like hey what's the scattering report on rassilo like everyone interacts with him hates his guts that would that would bother me more than anything i'd rather be broke than that well maybe not that anymore but yeah just do you find there's people there's

anyone at espn who people were like that that everyone oh uh and we don't have to say who it is no we're not i'm not going to say any names but there's there's definitely some people some of the on-air talent seem to be a little polarizing yeah it would always usually be on-air guys um rarely would a behind the scenes guy be in, like, usually you could just move on from him. Like, if you didn't get along with him or you saw things creatively, like, you go, oh, I know I'm not going to have to deal with you that long anyway. But yeah, there's, I mean, like any place at work, but it was always kind of bad whenever it would be somebody that was on-air and then everybody would be like, oh, yeah, I hate that guy. And you're like, man. I remember my friend Sean McDonough had that reputation for a while. And I think had an epiphany, a come to Jesus moment about that he had to. Because in Boston earlier,

I think that was one of the reasons he lost the Fox job. Because I think people just didn't like working with him. I didn't work with him enough in the beginning. Because I mean, the whole start of my career- He was at that station. Was because Sean was just sick of working there working there yeah so sean would take off shows i think i think he's since then has circled yeah so i don't i don't have i don't i can't say what because i just wasn't around him

enough to know it but i think it'd be really hard to do that in the era of the internet and sports blogs and all that to be a fucking asshole i think that would come out yeah because i got some of that that i was difficult a little bit. And I was like, me? I go, no, no, here's where I'm difficult. Where when nobody else does anything they're going to say they're going to do. You're like, I'm that difficult.

I just take everything personally. There's a huge fucking difference. Yeah, right, right. So I just, it hurts my feelings if somebody says something. What I could always tell too is like the most disliked people didn't like me. Then I was like, oh.

That's great. I'm like, again, continue to hate me because everybody hates your guts. And if you don't like me, that means I'm doing something right. So I don't know who that would be. Who is that in the NFL playoffs this year? The hate your guts person? That's probably a coach, right? Have to be a coach.

Well, college basketball and football has the highest percentage of that guy is a fucking asshole, people. Yeah, and I've always, and people always disagree with me on this and they're wrong. College basketball head coaches are way more psychotic than college football head coaches.

They're, you ever watch Mick Cronin for Cincinnati? Okay, do yourself a favor. Check out the next time Cincinnati's on the road. And if they're in a neighborhood near you, watch Mick Cronin for like 20 minutes.

Don't even watch the fucking game. Just watch Mick Cronin. It's in an insane asylum. Like on, I've never seen anything like it. Like when they play UConn, I'd be like,

all right, I'm in Hartford. Fuck it. And I'd go over and watch a game and it was, it was nuts. So I actually think college basketball coaches are crazier'm in Hartford. Fuck it. And I'd go over and watch a game. And it was nuts. So I actually think college basketball coaches are crazier than college football coaches.

Can you believe that UCLA can't find a good coach? That's weird. I got to go on. How about Dick Vitale saying it should be Patino? Oh, they'll have you on. They'll have you on. Yeah, Vitale suggested Patino. And I was like, I was kind of into it.

Yeah. Well, I mean, from an entertainment standpoint. Oh, my God. It would be phenomenal. What do you think the dumbest shit you'll say when you're old will be? What I'll say?

It'll be a lot of back in my day stuff. Do you think it'll be like doing like Ellis Burks still should be in the Hall of Fame and he isn't and it's bullshit? No, I think it'll be more like back in my day,

you didn't take 16 threes. Like James Harden's scoring binge right now. Back in my day, a guy had an inside an inside outside game i i'm about five years away from being that guy my father loses his shit over rest if like hyrie's not playing and it's a healthy scratch oh he doesn't like that he he seriously if he doesn't go out or do anything but if he did i'd see him picking fights my dad's number one thing is it's and sometimes it spills onto my twitter feed because he's gotten me so read up about it is the three with 19 seconds

left in the shot clock it it offends his his being as a human he can't handle it because the patino thing is so crazy it's yeah sure from an entertainment standpoint if you were in a first of all it's never gonna happen okay but like i get, like, I get that DeFightel likes Rick Pitino. They have a lot of money at UCLA. They have a lot of, like, really, really rich boosters who want a good team, and they would hire, like, freaking anybody. They'd hire, like, the Korean dictator's son

if that guy knew how to, like, go 25 and 5. They don't care. Well't care record over there i think it's pretty good yeah um no but seriously they just they want a winning team they do not give a shit anymore about character anything they they want to win but as i tell all these college football fan bases like you and your head only see your school so you think the list of guys that want to come coach there is so much longer than reality like almost every college football fan base is like wait a minute this is the best we can do so if you're ucla like who are you supposed to grab like who are you supposed to

go get i have a name for you john becker uvm why not the gonzaga guy phew yeah He's awesome, dude. Why not just offer that guy $10 million a year? Every year he's in the Sweet 16 Final Eight. His team's 12-1. By the way, they recruit with pretty much everybody that's not Kentucky or Duke. He thinks outside the box. That might be an exaggeration. They can hang with any blue chip school.

I watched them beat Duke over the Thanksgiving break with guys I'd never heard of. Why not get that guy i don't know if it's like a chris peterson i don't i don't know a few i don't know him well enough to like oh hey are you like an anti-la guy because that was the whole chris peterson thing when he was at boise it was hey the guy doesn't want to go to la all right and then finally when he got the washington thing it was a perfect fit he was ready to make that transition. I don't know if you, where he's at with that stuff. If he just goes,

look, I got this shit rolling up here. Why do I even need to bother with it? That's a great, you know, I think he's a great coach. He'd be great there. I've already made this case on the one shining podcast,

but Loyola Marymount to me is the sleeper. Great location. Marina Del Rey, right next to the airport, right in the beach. Marina Del Rey. I bet the airport right in the beach Marina Del Rey I bet you Kyle's over there a lot because a lot of like that's where

if you want to live out by the water the rents are a little cheaper Kyle's over there he's a little pricey he's a year away he's got he's got he needs his

his rap gear and needs to take off because I hear there's a bunch of dive bars up what Palos Verdes which is north of me it is a place that if Kyle was down there, he'd be down there.

Never heard of that. Can I walk around? You can do stuff. Club Trill? Marina Del Rey. Club Trill? Ever heard of it? His name's Mark.

I can get you a sticker. You want a sticker? Get you a sticker. But they should have an awesome school. It drives me nuts. Because when we lived on the East Coast, and you have no idea where anything is in the West Coast and you think Beverly Hills is right next to the Hollywood sign and all that stuff, you just assume that UCLA and USC are like on the beach. And it's the opposite, but Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine are the ones

that are actually what the LA is in your head if you're not from here? When I first saw Pepperdine, I went- It's like, what is this? I go, this is one of those condos. It's amazing. Like, what do you get? What do you get for like $1,200 for a studio in there? And then you go up and it's just this hill. Yeah. I drive, I actually, when I really want to check it out,

I pull up to the gate and I go, hey. I go, I work at ESPN. I just want to see what the hell this is all about. No, they'll let you in. And the guy was like, yeah, no problem. He's like, just don't park where you're not supposed to park. And you start walking around. It's like another planet.

When you walk around up there, and then you look down at the water and the canyons and all that stuff, and you just go, like, this should be a powerhouse. I know it never would. It's the most expensive school in the country. Will Kane went there. Polo. Walk on.

Will Kane. Who is that? Shut up. No, no. Swear to God. Come on. Played water polo. Walk on polo?

Water polo. And he used to, he used to pick fights at moon shadows all the time. Oh, wow. That's the most good stuff. He'd go down there and he'd have a couple old granddads, a couple neat, two fingers. And he'd be like,

hey, hey, fucking surfer boy. It's not how we do it down in Texas. He'd get in all sorts of wrestling matches. Matt Money Smith also went there. Oh, he did? Petros of Money fame, yeah. I don't even know how you go there. Like, I look at it and it's unbelievable. I don't know that I could do it.

I don't know that I could pull it off. You know, like all the students work at the Sun Life smoothie place in downtown Malibu. Like I lived it up there for up like a month or two and a half months. That's right. It's incredible. My daughter and I go to play soccer there because they have this hill that you,

there's some goal on there and you can just kick, you know, do all these kicks in the Pacific oceans right there. And it's like fricking the end of Shawshank Redemption. It really is. It's really like the most incredible thing. You expect to see Andy down there working on a boat. And people go to right there. And it's like fricking the end of Shawshank Redemption. It really is. It's really like the most incredible thing. You expect to see Andy down there working on a boat. And people go to college there.

I don't. And the thing is, is like you describe it and people that have no idea, like go ahead and Google, look it all up. I don't know that it would be so distracting that you wouldn't get shit done. Like when I think of a friend of mine who went to Tulane, I'm like, how the hell do you go to Tulane? Like, how do you do that? There's no way. Like I was a mess at Vermont in the beginning. Cause I couldn't even handle just ordering food. Like I grew up in Martha's vineyard. I'm like, some asshole comes to your place and brings you wings at 2am. I'm so mad about it. Cause like I went to Holy cross. I wanted to go to Holy cross and then I visited and I used to go there for fucking hell. And you're just walking up a rainy third degree winds. The weather's terrible.

But for the people listening out there, if you go on YouTube and you watch, just put in Battle of the Network Stars, any of the first 10 episodes, and each one will start with Howard Cosell's voice and a helicopter shot of the Pepperdine Campus because that's where they did Battle of the Network Stars.

And like, that beautiful Pepperdine Campus. And you'll beautiful Pepperdine campus. And you'll see what we're talking about. It's outrageous. But the point is- Like, I don't know that if you went there- Loyola Marathon should have a great team. But if you went to Pepperdine, I don't know that you'd be going,

oh, I'm never going to get anything done because you're actually isolated from everything. By the way, Pepperdine has like great swimming and soccer. And so it's not like they don't have good sports. Volleyball, right? Volleyball's a big one for them. That would make sense. But like, you don't go up to Zuma. It's not like you're going have good sports. Volleyball, right? Volleyball's a big one for them. That would make sense. But like, you don't go up to Zuma.

It's not like you're gonna get in trouble up there. You would have to, I guess if you were older, you would Uber this. Well, then only you'd drink on campus. Right, so you'd have to go, what, roll into Santa Monica and find some dive bars in Santa Monica. Yeah, but Uber's changed everything now. It has, but it's still a hike.

Like when you're still a, like, right, you're a Pepperdine, somebody's paying the bill, but you can still have somebody paying the bill or you're not and still be a broke college kid. So, you know, when you're still a, like, right. You're Pepperdine, somebody's paying the bill, but you can still have somebody paying the bill or you're not, still be a broke college kid. So, you know, when you're younger, you're probably not even thinking of like, how am I going to do this? Like we're trying to break down the social scene

at Pepperdine without really knowing it. But as amazing as it is, it doesn't, my guess is driving around up there that you're still kind of confined to campus most of the time. And it's dry. You're getting your work done. Yeah, obviously when you're older. Most schools are like that. Like I had three buddies who went to colgate and

you walk down a hill and there's like four bars in this little downtown and that was that's how mississippi state is starkville's four bars all like identical all with porches the cotton district well bc was remember marianne's was just the place for years. I don't know if it's still the case, but it was just Mary Ann's crammed with the beer and the taps that hadn't been cleaned in 20 years. I rented a Craig Smith there once. Craig Smith? BC, yeah. Oh, the basketball player?

Yeah, because I lived up the street. What was your bar in Boston? Probably The Place because I bartended there. Oh, yeah. But it wasn't a good i was like in a weird really kind of bummed out i was really broke i've been broke now for like four or five years and i proposed to my girlfriend she said no and so then it was like okay now i'm gonna live in boston and i had the shittiest apartment i actually brought a girl back once and she's like

you're on tv and i was like yeah awesome and uh so that wasn't she wasn't super into the place wasn't going to close the deal it's funny going back I was back in Boston with my family for the holidays we went to Charlestown which is almost always the same every time we go

and that's where I lived for nine years except it isn't anymore now though it is but it isn't it looks almost the same we went to the Warren Tavern at like 1.30 on a Thursday it was packed

but they'll always have like one or two things that are just blow my mind. Like all of a sudden there was a Whole Foods there instead of the Johnny's Foodmaster. It's like, do you got a Whole Foods in Charlestown? Yeah, the idea that that was going to-

That's like insane. That almost broke my brain. But the new thing that I noticed this time was there's a beautiful Starbucks in the big main square where the bank is. And I was like, wow, that, I just would have gotten so much so many columns

that would have been written at that beautiful Starbucks instead of the Dunkin' Donuts. Is that where you lived when you lived there? I lived like right in the heart of Charlestown for eight, nine years. See, I lived like further out because I couldn't afford anything. And I really it really bothered me. I got in Charlestown before it flipped. Yeah, but you had like a real

gig. Like I was only bartending one night a week and it actually didn't pay that well. It was like the worst bartending job I've ever had. I couldn't believe how bad we did. I had the sight I was double dutying. But I was doing the stuff with The Zone and I was, I mean, I'll never forget. They're like, all right,

we're going to pay you a thousand bucks every paycheck. And at that point, I didn't know that paychecks came every two weeks. So I was like, holy shit, I'm going to make 52 grand. i can get a car that works 26 and it was 26 i'm like oh 26 grand and then after and then the whole thing and then the agent was like i'll take four percent i was like what the fuck and um that's how you're an agent right every two weeks so i was so where's that guy i was so broke up until 30 that a lot of people like hey did you miss boston i go if i had had money and been in a better place mentally and

happy and all that stuff like i would have i would have liked it and i'd go to games and that part was cool and everything but i wasn't i was really miserable i know not everybody thinks i'm the happiest person now but i was really like this in the you know you're trying to do this career and you're like, this shit isn't going to work. That was the biggest reason I left Boston because I was in Boston for really from after college for 10 years. And even though the last like year and a half started to blow up, things turned for me. But it still was this place that I just failed for like almost an entire decade. And just everywhere I looked was just things that I was like, oh, I lost that. That was a loss. And I don't know. Sometimes you need

to get away from that. Yeah. Now this is turning into a life talk. No, but I always think these things are kind of important because I had so many moments where I'm like, just go back and get your GC license and, you know, make some money. You'll be able to build your own house in five years. I almost went into real estate in summer of 2000. I was going to give up. I was so tired of not having money. Not having money, man. It was so bad. Do you know that I

used to freelance for YM magazine and for a wrestling magazine? What are they, Young Miss? Young Miss. What the fuck? I had somebody at Holy Cross. Shout out to Chrissy Boyle. She used to run YM and she's like

I had written for the class letter a couple times and it was funny and she's like you gotta write for YM about what guys

are thinking I have like four pieces for YM no way and they paid like 1200 or 1500

that's real money and then the wrestling mags paid like 1000 1200 so it was like I

but I was at that point for like two years or like sure i would i would have sold blood for 500 bucks what did guys want back then that's what it was like it was like 25 things your boyfriend isn't telling you by bill simmons no fucking way where are these i don't know hopefully destroyed oh man we gotta no we gotta find a way hopefully they don't know. Hopefully destroyed. Oh, man. We got to, no, we got to find a way. Hopefully they don't exist. We got to re- There's probably some good stuff in there. What about a remake of this? I don't know.

Even I didn't keep these. Kyle, is anyone still listening to this? I don't know. I'm looking up these young miscovers trying to find this thing. No, that's gone. We're cutting all this out. Ryan, this was great. All right.

Thanks, man. All right. Thanks to man. All right. Thanks to ZipRecruiter. Don't forget to go to ZipRecruiter.com slash BS. Thanks to SimpliSafe. Remember, fellow procrastinators, now's the time to act. SimpliSafe's extended holiday sale ends soon. No contracts, no markups, no complicated installation.

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