The Bill Simmons Podcast - Round 1 NFL Reactions With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: January 13, 2025

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to discuss the game of wild-card weekend: Buccaneers-Commanders (2:55), the Round 2 schedule, the Eagles beating the Packers (20:34), Broncos-Bills, Steelers-Ravens, and Chargers-Texans (35:24) before guessing the lines for the NFL divisional round (54:35). They then discuss the devastating Southern California fires (1:13:55). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producers: Kyle Crichton, Chia Hao Tat, and Steve Ceruti The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's happening? It's Todd McShea and I'm back with a new home and a new show at The Ringer and Spotify. The McShea Show. It's a video and audio podcast coming to you year-round with all my NFL draft information. Big boards, mock drafts, and player movement. Plus, I'll be chatting with some of my best friends in football, including some of your favorite football analysts. During the week, we'll have episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays that'll include discussions about my player rankings, who's rising, who's falling, and who your NFL team should be keeping an eye on. Plus, we'll be reacting each week to the college football playoff polls and giving you previews and picks for each Saturday's slate. In addition, I'll have episodes on Saturday nights with my immediate reaction to the full day in college football every week.

So if you love the college game, the NFL, the draft or all of it like me, make sure to like, follow, subscribe and get ready for the McShay Show on the Ringer, Spotify and wherever you watch or listen to podcasts. What's in this McDonald's bag? The McValue Meal. For $5.79 plus tax, you can get your choice of junior chicken, McDouble, or chicken snack wrap, plus small fries and a small fountain drink. So pick up a McValue Meal today at participating McDonald's restaurants in Canada. Prices exclude delivery. This winter, take a trip to Tampa on Porter Airlines. Enjoy the warm Tampa Bay temperatures and warm Porter hospitality on your way there. All Porter Fairs include beer, wine, and snacks and free fast streaming Wi-Fi on planes with no

middle seats. And your Tampa Bay vacation includes good times, relaxation, and great Gulf Coast weather. Visit flyporter.com and actually enjoy economy. We're also brought to you by the Ringer podcast network. I did not have a podcast for you on Tuesday and Thursday last week for obvious reasons. It was the worst week in the history of Southern California. There was just so much devastation, so much heartache, so much fear, so much terror. And ultimately, everything about it was awful. And some people stepped up, fire department, police department, first responders,

TV reporters on the ground, helicopter pilots dropping water, all of the people in various communities who banded together to get toiletries and extra clothes and all kinds of things people need if their house has just burned down or it's been or they've been evacuated. So there was some good that that came out of some awful and it was as awful as it gets and I'm still trying to wrap my head around it. I wasn't sure that we should do a podcast today. Sal and I have reacted after round one,

really since 2007, and I don't know if we should have done a podcast, but we decided we wanted everything to feel normal again for an hour, so we decided to talk football, and we talked about California at the tail end, but I wanted to just give my best to everybody out there who's been affected by this in some way because I just can't believe it.

And I don't think, I know you can see it from the video and the pictures, but I don't think you can fully believe how awful this is. So hopefully we can get through it. Hopefully we can rebuild it. Hopefully there's a light at the end of the tunnel here, but right now it's hard to see. So anyway, we're going to talk some football. We're not going to start with Pearl Jam. We're just going to get to the five games. Then we're going to talk California at the end of the podcast. So that's the plan. Here we go. We're taping this a little after 8 15 Pacific time. Definitely the worst week either of us have had since we moved to LA. And we're going to talk about all the awful California stuff later.

We'll start with football and then we'll circle back around because there's a lot to cover on that. But we want to hit the football first as weird as that sounds. So we had four really lousy games and then a really good one. Tampa, Washington. Washington was their first playoff game in 20 years and it ends up being a doink that puts it over the top. That did not make up for the other four games from an entertainment standpoint, but really entertaining. I'm wondering, is Washington this season, they're not the best team, but they're the kind of the Daniel Brian, uh, Brett hitman heart.

Like you always have a good match when you're in a, in a match with Washington. They're one of those things. They're not going to win the title, but they've been the most fun team this season. Right. They've been in the most fun. Fast bill with them not winning the title. I Jayden Jayden Daniels, his face is bleeding. I just, I just want to lick that blood right off of them. No, that's good for Joe house.

Uh, yeah, like you said, somber week, shitty week, but, uh, I feel good for Joe house, one of our fricking teams is going and advancing, but he was awesome. Jayden down. He was really, I mean, they were coming after him for that guy to not turn the ball over once with the heat he was facing and just big play after big play. Good for him and good for us from finally getting a good game 36 hours later. House did not have the cojones to actually take Washington in the Ringer Sunday pregame show.

He did, what did he do? Some bogus Tampa over his way of covering his bases. Tampa over 27 and a half points. And he said Washington would win 28-27. Yeah, he was really threading the needle there. I think the Washington fans were believing that they actually had a real chance to win this one. And the line reflected it. It was Tampa by three, but this came down to a couple of plays for me.

So, Washington, they're down four and Tampa gets the goal line stand. And it goes to fourth and five. There's like, I don't know, less than 10 minutes left. And I always think the team should kick the field goal, take the points, make it a one point game. Tampa doesn't do it. Fourth and five's a lot when you're inside the 10. I just didn't trust that they were gonna get it.

I thought it was a mistake. Tampa gets the big stop. They have the momentum going the other way. Fumble. Now we're going back again. Now it's fourth and two, fourth day. And it was like on the 11th, fourth and two, a little more manageable. I was okay with them going in second time, plus there was less time in the game and Daniel's delivers comes through. Right? So now Washington's up three, Tampa goes all the way back down.

They have this great drive. Baker has a scramble. It's second and one on the 11 and there's like less than five minutes left. They run this like QB option run with Baker gets stuffed. Then the next play like fumbled snap, Bucky Irving always tackled four yards behind the line. All of a sudden they're kicking a field goal and it was like, it just like tush push it, you have first down first down goal to, and you have a chance to control your destiny. Then Washington comes back down, two huge plays, that little weird screen class flick play that Daniels made.

That almost could have been intercepted. Yeah. Yeah. But it was a really nice play. They get it. They go down in a field goal territory. Then that awesome third to one by Daniels, which is, that was the play of the game. That's why he's special.

But Sal, like over and over again in the last like five, six, seven minutes of these games, he's just pulling them out. I'd be scared of them if I was Philadelphia. I'd be scared of anyone if I was Philadelphia, if the plan was to play like they did today. But they're not playing Philadelphia, right? They're playing Detroit.

No, and I got all excited. I actually looked this up because I thought it was Washington, Philadelphia before I realized I was confused by the standings. Do you know how many times Washington and Philadelphia played in the playoffs? Uh, has it not happened a lot? I'll say four. One.

Really? One. It was the Mark Rippon year. Um, Washington beat them 20 to six. The one they won the Superbowl. Yeah. Interesting. That was the only time they've ever, um, Washington beat them 20 to six. The one they won the super bowl. Yeah. Interesting. That was the only time they've ever played in the playoffs, which is weird because they play twice a year.

I would, I would have guessed it was like, and they've been in the league this whole time, I would have guess it would have been like eight, seven, 10, I don't know. Yeah. Yeah. Well, they're not going to play again. So that's good. But yeah, that's a, they're, um, they're solid Washington as far as the

coaches go with the fourth and two. I, um, I was with you. I like, just take the points in a lot of these situations. I know they proved me wrong, but the plays that were running for Jayden Daniels weren't great though. They were making them a pocket passer there on like fourth and two and fourth and four. So I was all for taking the points in most of those situations. It's a different story when it's the Eagles and the Terps and

Barkley and if I have Lamar, if I have Henry, you know, if I have Josh Allen. But other than that, fourth and two is still fourth and two. You can kick a field goal. And I was okay with them leaving that field goal on the board too early on. What did you think of Tampa potentially going for a down three with like four minutes left? When it was like fourth and four? That would have been like a fourth and three after they got stuffed minutes left. When it was like fourth and four? That would have been like a fourth and three after they got stuffed twice.

Yeah. It was like fourth and three. I don't like it. That was, that was the play where like there was, uh, the, the disarray at the line of scrimmage, right? Like they f- I never liked the next play after that. I don't know what it would have been. I know there was like easy stuff happening with Evans, but I kind of get it. There's, there's so much to go after bowls for. That's not one of them. Well, especially the end of the first half when he was mismanaging everything and somehow they scored anyway, I thought they should kick the field goal.

And yet when they kicked the field goal, I thought Washington was going to come down and get the game when he field goal. It was weird. I didn't think they should go for it, but I also thought they were going to lose cause they didn't get those, uh, those two plays. I just like saying Vita via bill. I'll say Vita via over and over and over. I tried to order Vita via Peter Lugers.

They didn't have it. Um, I mean, big picture and we know a lot of Washington fans. This was the, this was the official fuck you dance night again. Oh yeah. Yeah. You know, not, it was one thing, it's a cute story. They had a Hail Mary, they got into the playoffs. You know, Dan Quinn, it's a family atmosphere. They have a front office that actually knows what they're doing.

Adam Peters, like they've turned the organization around. That makes them look bad enough, but now you have this awesome playoff win. Now they're playing Detroit, a team that doesn't have, uh, the most awesome defense, at least until week 18, when they look pretty good against Minnesota, but Donald also left a lot of throws. And if I'm watching it, I feel like I can go in there and, uh, and at least match points with the trade. Who the fuck knows.

Right? Hell yeah. Yes. You got a rookie quarterback that didn't, like I said, didn't turn the ball over at all in many instances where he could have. I mean, that's gotta be, it's, you know, I don't know, they might be banged up and the Lions are more rested and everything like that. But I think this for now, now we're talking like a week before.

I think this is closer. They do get screwed with the Saturday thing though, right? They have six days. Yeah. Well, you knew somebody was going to get screwed with the Sunday to Saturday. I guess it would be worse if it was the Monday game. But yeah, first playoff win in 20 years. And like, you know, the Patriots hired Mike Grable this weekend, which was felt like it

was headed that way for five days. But I was getting intel that it was getting a little hairy on Friday night and Chicago was making a run at him. And, you know, and you think like, oh man, if we don't get him and we don't get better, that it was getting a little hairy on Friday night and Chicago was making a run at him. And you think like, oh man, if we don't get him and we don't get Ben, all of a sudden we're looking at the Pete Carroll range of guys. But they get Vrabel, they have Drake May, they have all this cap space, they have the fourth pick.

And they had probably one of the worst rosters in the league if not the worst. They were in a division with Buffalo. There's all these reasons not to believe, but I watch a team like Washington, I'm like, they turned it around in a year. That team was a fucking, you know, shit can. And they drafted the right quarterback. They changed the coach.

They brought in a really good coaching staff and all of a sudden they have 13 wins. So it's not like they're like a nine and 18 that snuck in. Like this team's won 13 times. And the, the, another strike against him was the ownership and there was Defecation in the stadium and we can go on and on and on it doesn't really make sense Dan Quinn's done Nice job with this team. And like you said, this this is just a they call lightning in a bottle with this Jayden Daniels It's a it's terrific. But congratulations on variable. I think that's, that's fun for you. Right. Good news to end the week. Yeah.

It feels like, uh, you need the coach, you need the QB and I can kind of figure out everything else, right. But if I don't have those two things, where am I going? Right. And then you need at least like a solid coach, maybe better than that. And you need a top 10 QB potentially. And now they have the two things and now they can try to build their roster. But I thought what the way Washington did it was the blueprint.

They had a lot of really smart second level free agent signings, like the kind of going after like the B-list guys, like the best of the B-list and they spent a lot of money on their coaching staff. So it seems replicable. The Pats have a really super easy schedule. Anyway, I was, I was inspired by Washington. The difference is Daniel's, he's in his mid twenties, you know, he's in college for nine years, you know, there's a reason he looks like a veteran.

He's almost as old as Joe burrow. I was thinking that with Bo Nicks too. I was like, yeah, maybe I was wrong about all this and the rookies, if they have like 60 college games under their belt and they've all played in like high profile bowls and you know, they don't really get shook, but we'll talk about that game. That's a whole different story. But listen, I think part of you is saying, Vrabel did this with Tannahill. He could do it with Drake May. Isn't that the bottom line?

He's never had an elite quarterback ever. Yeah. And hopefully Drake May can get there. Well, I'm hoping. Now I thought, I mean, I've talked about Ray Bull a bunch of times on the pod. I just felt like he was hands down the best coaching candidate available. We'll see with Ben Johnson, but there's a big difference between calling plays

and actually having to run a whole team and build a whole culture. I think, I thought Tampa-Washington was the hardest game to pick. Who'd you have in that game? I picked it right. Add Washington. I actually won four and one. My playoffs have been terrible over the last few years.

Did you get three and two or four and one? What'd you do? I just, I had all those, I never did million dollar picks this week, but I had all those anchor teasers with Buffalo and Baltimore eight, eight and a half point teases. So Green Bay covered by half point. Um, the, the Tampa covered today, I had a lot of, a lot of trouble with the chargers lost yesterday. I had a lot of trouble with Washington Tampa because I liked the same thing about both teams. I liked their offenses. I liked the way their quarterbacks were playing.

And I thought that both of them were really these close knit teams. You know, I was reading the stories about Tampa heading into the, out of the week 18 and like that Mike Evans play that we were joking about last week about, oh my God, that was kind of risky to go for it, to go for a thousand yards. You have the game, you're like, the playoffs are on the line.

And you read the stories about it and guys were saying it was like the highlight of their careers. Like they all loved Mike Evans and they were like, this record meant a lot to him. He got hurt. He didn't think he was going to be back in time to try to break it. And there was just all this stuff and you could just feel the love coming out of that.

Bill, they love Baker Mayfield. They play hard for him. Um, so I was like, man, this is almost two teams. I, I wish these two teams were playing two other teams so I could pick both of these teams as one of those. Because everything you read about Washington is the same thing. Dan Quinn, he's turned the vibes around. The mood is completely different. And they end up winning the mood ball, I guess, by a doink. I think we felt the same way about Rams Detroit last year. Remember? I watched your place and I go like, why'd I have to square up in the first

round? This is good. Yeah. So, yeah, Baker's great. When he takes off, you have no choice but to root for him. Somehow he's got legs. There's like 200 more rushing yards this year than he has in the previous five, any of the previous five or six. Like it's really, it's spectacular. And Mike Evans just diving backwards for a first down. It's, it is really tough.

Irving runs hard, defense plays hard. Tough to not. It's a good team. Yeah. I had, defense plays hard. Tough to not proof of. Yeah. I had, I had written down cause I, there seemed like they were going to possibly win at one point, I was researching them. They had a case for being the best 2020s NFC team and they still might have the case even now because they want, they're one of the only two NFC teams that

won a Superbowl. They've had four division titles. They were six and three in the playoffs heading into this game today. Over the last five seasons of 2020s, they're 51 and 33. It was like, you would never think if you said to somebody who is the best team in the NSC this decade, I don't think they would have been a top four guess for anybody, but I think they are. It's either them or Philadelphia. They have a better record and more playoff wins. And then the loss today, like, you know, I think they would have had's either them or Philadelphia. They have a better record and more playoff wins. And then the loss today, like, you know,

I think they would have had a chance in round two against whoever they played. But the Mayfield thing, when you think about, he goes to Cleveland, plays for four coaches his first three seasons. He wins their first playoff game with that franchise, right? Since they came back. He tore his labrum

in his left shoulder, second game, 2021, has the year from hell. They ended up paying him to go away, 11 million to Carolina, and go into the Sean thing. And now Baker, he's not a top five quarterback, but he's in the top 10 or 11. And you just think like this whole thing is one of the biggest disaster decisions

start to finish in the history of the league. It's so hard, I think, for us. I don't want people to feel bad for us because we're doing what we love. But we look at football and players, I think, through all different lenses, right? We'd look at them like historically, we look at fantasy wise, like Baker's great, exciting. He's top three or four, five exciting. And it's like, okay, but where does that put him actually, you know, in terms of building a team around him. So I don't know. I don't know if I wanna say he's top four or five

or anywhere in there, but I love watching them and I love everything he brings to that team. And I feel like he's in the prime of his career. Don't compare him to Flacco. Don't compare him to any of these other guys. I hope people don't do that anymore. And I think you're right. They were one of the best teams in the NFC.

I think they get a bad rap because it's the South that they keep winning. But they can't help that. And we make fun of the South every year. Yeah. It's our fault. Yeah, the thing if you're talking about just QB assets, and we always talk about a rookie QB,

how that's the best asset you can have. But they have him, his contract, compared to the other monster contracts where every other superstars make in 50, 55 million a year, whatever they're on the cap for. And I think he signed for like 30, 30 plus a year, something like that. So, um, definitely a better asset. Anyway, uh, that was a great game for. For, uh, for the weekend, because up until that point, it felt like it was the worst weekend ever

for a variety of reasons, real life reasons, the actual games. It was just one of those weekends you're like, man, I used to love round one and this time I feel stupid watching football. Well, here's the thing. Once the college games were really good, I'm like, oh, the NFL is going to suck now, isn't it? We can't just have all the college games are excellent. Yeah, they were very good. And then coming into this weekend, but a lot of people all over.

Can we just accept the fact that we're probably not going to get good competitive games in any sport in the playoffs for the first couple of rounds can all we really hope for is a good final four as sports fans and not like, yeah, tear each other's eyes out, arguing over who has the better system. Like the NBA might actually have the best. There are some good four or five matchups every year, but then they have some finals that suck too. So I think you just have to hope that the final four is good and, and let the cream rise to the top. Yeah. Weirdly, the NBA might be in the best shape for around one this year, because

they have so much talent and they have some teams in the seven, eight, nine, 10 range that the play-ins will be fun. Now you're making, you're mad at me about the Sacramento. Yeah, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to talk about the NBA at all. I was just using it as one of the many examples. I saw your mind go to the Sacramento, Indiana, Minnesota bet we made. How's this team is going to win for the first time in 20 years?

And you're talking about this stupid parlay we have with Sacramento and Indiana. The Sacramento under, Indiana over, and the Minnesota under. And after we did it, Sacramento fired their coach and now they're just pulling games out of their ass, game after game after game. Let's take a break and we'll talk about the other games. I hope you're using FanDuel for the NFL playoffs right now. All customers can get a no sweat NFL same game parlay for the Vikings versus Rams game, just place a three legged and you'll get bonus bets back. If your bet doesn't win, You can do something like take the Minnesota Moneyline, Jefferson,

anytime touchdown Jefferson to get like 80 yards we're saving. Put them all together. Boom. You got a bet. Same game parlay is the perfect way to combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payday, build your own or choose from one of the popular SGPs pre-built for you. And FanDuel's top rated sportsbook app. Get your no sweat, same game parlay on Fandl.

America's number one sportsbook. Visit Fandl.com slash BS Fandl, an official sports spending partner at the NFL. You must be 21 plus in president select states or 18 plus in president DC. Opt-in required minimum three leg parlay required. Refund issues as a non-redrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt, max refund $5 unless otherwise specified, restrictions apply including token expiration,

see terms at sportsbook.finder.com. Game prom, call 1-800-GAMBOR or visit rg-help.com. Get groceries delivered across the GTA from real Canadian superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. All right. So our schedule before we get to the rest of the games,

we have Houston at Kansas City. That's an ESPN game. On Saturday, it's the first one. We need a name for the round two first game on Saturday. It's the first one. We need a name for the round two first game on Saturday. It's not a shaky game, but it's a better restaurant that you know you can probably rent a table for, get a table for like 20, 25. You wouldn't exactly have your wedding reception there, but it's serviceable and solid. It's kind of exciting, but not totally. I don't, I sort of want to insult any possible sponsors who make it, but. Well, Houston's is actually, Houston was in Shakey's and now they're in this one. So it's like Shakey's open like a pop-up, um, you know, and like, uh, somewhere,

you know, and it's like in a cool area, maybe, I don't know. There's still, it's still the first Saturday game. Kyle says the Texas roadhouse game. Texas roadhouses are fun. Yeah, that's good. I was going to say the Bianco pizza game, but I don't want Bianco to be mad at me. Cause Bianco could do like a pizza pop-up, but you might take that personally. Right.

Even though I'm complimenting it. Cause I love Bianco pizza. Yeah. Um, Houston at KCESPN then Saturday night, Washington at Detroit, Sunday, NBC, either Minnesota or the Rams playing in Philadelphia. So we get Collinsworth in Philadelphia. Oh Mike, it's so cold. My nipples are frozen, Mike.

I can't even feel my nipples. Can I feel your nipples, Mike? Cause I can't feel my chubby nipples. I have no feeling, Mike. That's not a night game, huh? So they're doing that three Eastern on Sunday and then Romo Nance get the good one, the great one. Baltimore at Buffalo. So the storylines, I guess, would be Casey going for the three-peat.

It officially starts now. Jaden Daniels and the exciting rejuvenated Washington commanders against the team that's really been America's team this year, the Detroit lions, where they've just been on every week. We like watching them. We know all the characters at this point. Dan Campbell is like the dad in a Friday sitcom. Then I don't know what's more fun, Minnesota, Philadelphia or Rams, Philadelphia, probably Minnesota, Philadelphia, right? For the history of some of the games they've had. I guess it would have to be. I'm a little down on Philadelphia.

Do you feel like Philadelphia is going to make every game shitty now? No matter who plays it. Well, hold that thought for 30 seconds. And then Baltimore Buffalo is the. Great. That's now. No matter who plays it. Yeah. Well, hold that thought for 30 seconds. And then Baltimore Buffalo is the. Great. That's it. That's what's decided. You rarely get this. You get this in basketball sometimes. You rarely get this in the NFL where it's like, we've argued about this all year. I think it's been a fun argument. I don't feel like it ever degenerated anything bad.

I'm still not positive who I think the MVP is. Like I left the weekend.. I'm like, I don't, I, both of those guys were awesome. I don't, I still don't know who the MVP was. They're excellent. I'll, I'll stand by Josh Allen, but again, you can't really be mad at what's going on. If some, some one or the other wins it, I'll say it seems like Lamar has a little more help with Derek Henry, but other than that, they did beat Buffalo. They beat him pretty good. Buffalo beat the one seed.

You can go either way. All right. The, uh, the game before the good game was Packers Eagles, which was a classic Philadelphia win where they're up 10 nothing and their fans are just complaining. And the game has no flow. Uh, you don't really know, understand what's going on. The game, I actually watched with a couple of Eagles fans today, and they're cutting to A.J. Brown.

He's reading a book at one point because he cleared his fist off. He's not getting the ball. Everyone's like, what's wrong with Hertz? Is he healthy? What's going on with him? And they just kind of limped their way to a convincing win that was never in doubt. And they win by double digits. And then you leave the game and you go, what just happened? Are the Eagles good?

I'm not, it's just, it was typical. Yeah. And I hated the, this is the one I'm going to get salty about because it's the one I lost, but I had green Bay plus the points. And I wouldn't say, you know, Washington deserved to win as a road team. Fine. None of the other road teams showed up, right? Like Denver, Green Bay,

you can't make a case for any of the Pittsburgh. But get that kickoff right, man. Just get that right. It's all about momentum when you're on the road. If you're gonna lose a call, if you're gonna lose the opening kickoff, you're really kinda screwed there. And I feel like there were enough replays,

including the overhead to show. Oh, you're going here. Oh, I like this. Okay. I'm not a ref killer. Every time the Chiefs games are decided by something close, I'm like, it's hard to call it regular speed. But if you're able to replay something and you have all those angles and you have that overhead, he had it for like a two Mississippi count. Like is it easier now to just start digging your way through the earth to come out the other end? Is that easier to come out with the ball than it is to come up from a pile above the ground?

I don't know, I don't like that. But anyway, I had to get that off my chest. They've really made it seem like it's now a reality show where it's like season 41 of the challenge. Just put 10 guys in a pile, whoever has the ball ball when we pull everybody apart, they get the ball. I, I had texted you a couple of times over the weekend. I watched football every weekend. I feel like I understand all the rules.

I still don't understand what an intentional grounding is. CJ Stroud, that was one of the biggest plays in that Chargers game. Just seemed like a cut and dry intentional grounding. And they're like, now I got it over the line of scrimmage and he was out of the pocket. I was like, he's out of the pocket. Who cares? He was two feet to the left. How was he out of the pocket?

It just seemed like an automatic, he definitely did an intentional grounding cause he was about to get sacked. So they said it wasn't. And then I always felt like if the guy clearly had the ball in the pile before the, he disappeared into the pile, usually the guy gets the ball back. Of course. But this time they're like, Nope, he didn't totally have yet. It's like, he didn't seem like he had it.

It also goes against all their crap about player safety. Like, Oh really? Yeah. We're going to keep this going past the whistle because you definitely obviously blew the whistle and then that, then this guy got it like torn from his, uh, clutches. So I don't know. Anyway, they, Green Bay didn't score enough to win that game and every receiver was hurt and I

don't know who they were throwing to. So good for you Philly, but they didn't play, they didn't play great either. I don't understand. I've said this over and over again, watching them. I don't understand their offense. I don't understand why it's so slow and deliberate and has no pace and has no pep and just seems laborious at all times. I don't get it. I don't understand why it's so slow and deliberate and has no pace and has no pep and just seems laborious at all times. I don't get it.

I don't understand. We were joking about in the first quarter, we're watching like, here we go, 39 seconds till the next Saquon handoff. This will be 37 seconds. And it's just, they play with no pace. They play with no unpredictability at all. They never try to put any sort of pressure. You'd think like if you have Saquon as a running back with Hertz's ability to run and pass and the receivers they have,

you could almost go no huddle and just put a defense, you know, put them on their back pedal. They don't do anything. They're just like, no, do all your subs, get all your guys in and out, do what you need to do. I don't get it. And for the most part, as long as they don't get in a third and long situation, they're fine. If they're third and three or third and one, they can line up for the tush push on third and one and he can back out and throw it long like we saw or hand it to Barclay. It is a huge, huge advantage. What the Ravens do, what the Bills do, and specifically what the Eagles do with the tush

push and third and short. I mean, because you're going to convert on fourth, but yeah, everything this team does bugs me now, Barkley enough with the sliding down. Like you're an unselfish player. Should you be a social worker? Maybe like score touchdowns. People are betting on you to score touchdowns enough. You sound like the over. I, it's not like you're up one and you don't want to go up eight because

they're going to get the ball like just, just finish it. It's crazy already. So I don't know. I actually rerounded it seemed like the D back had an angle on maybe could have chased them down 30 yards downfield, but yeah, he, he definitely slid a little early it was, there was a couple of moments today with covers and over unders because you had that play you had Matt Collins about to go, he's setting up the bills on the two yard line. Terrible.

Next touchdown covers every tease and adjusted over if you had 41, 42, whatever. And then what was the other one? Was that Baltimore Pittsburgh just ending at 42 points? That felt like that could have been higher, right? Yeah, the Steelers had like 200 yards in third quarter and then there was no points at all. The Chargers Texans game somehow going over. Yes. What were the odds of that?

It was like seven, six. I mean, the first, I don't know when you want to talk about that. One more thing on Herz, though, his three winning playoff games, 131 yards against the Packers, 121 yards passing against the Niners, 154 against the Giants. Like, I don't know if we've ever seen anything like this. I know he's not asked to do that much and he doesn't and they went. Right.

Well, and he's not even like when they're celebrating at the end, he seems on the side. He's such a polarizing guy within the Eagles. Yeah. Like I know a lot of Eagles fans, none of them have a handle on him at all, but yet they've been winning and they've been successful with them, right?

But you watch and it's just, I don't know, there's, there's, when you look at like what we saw from Alan and Mahomes in somewhat similar offensive situations from a weapons standpoint, and they're just so electric and I guess Hertz just doesn't have that level in him. Yeah. When he shoots off to the side, he'll take a hard hit for a two yard gain, right? Like I feel like, I'm like, hey, cut it up. What are you doing? I don't know. I'm not going to, whatever.

He's gone to the Superbowl and everything. But just read a book on the sideline every now and then, Jalen. Come on. Read Inter Excellence, but borrow a copy from A.J. Brown. I was thinking Eagles fans, because the team has been successful, Read Inter Excellence, but borrow a copy from A.J. Brown. I was thinking Eagles fans, because the team has been successful, but they also love complaining about them,

and I don't really blame them, but it's like the friend who's married to the guy that you always feel like they're gonna get divorced, and they're never divorced, but she's always complaining about him. That's kind of the Eagles fans with this team. Yeah, you think they drew it for the Panthers all these years. To a point where you're like, oh, does your team suck? I mean, you keep saying they do.

Did you go 13 and four? Green Bay was kind of the hipster Super Bowl contender this year. Yeah. They were like the alternate pick. I know we had money on them. We both loved Detroit with the one seed and some Super Bowl bets, but then Green Bay was kind of the, well, here's plan B. If the Detroit thing doesn't work out, they ended up going 0 and 6 against Philly and Minnesota and Detroit. And, uh, this was more alarming to me. I'm throwing out the Brazil game in week one, cause that game was stupid.

They're playing it. And I don't understand what that field was in the other games against those three teams, they fell behind by 21 to Minnesota by 17 to Minnesota. They fell behind 21 to Detroit. They were down 10 to Detroit and they were down 10 today, 10 nothing. This was them against any good team. They just immediately spotted 10, 12, 17 points, whatever it was.

And there was a couple of times where they would kind of come back. What changed today was they lost Watson before the game. Yeah. And then they lose two more weapons. So they couldn't even do the comeback thing that Love was pretty good at. I thought Love had a really bad year for what my expectations were. If my expectations were an A minus, I thought he was like a C plus. I agree.

I don't know when, I'm trying to think when we love them. When did we fall in love with that team? When were they peaking? Was it six weeks ago? Because you're right. Yeah, it was five, six weeks ago. But they never really put together good. I guess they were just beating up the crap.

No, they had, they beat up Miami on Thanksgiving. There was that Thanksgiving in the week after. We should remember this for next year because there was a moment where Green Bay looked like the most dangerous NFC team. Pittsburgh looked like they had the one seed locked up. They had already beat Baltimore. They had two game lead. They, I think were 10 and three and it just felt like they were going to be 13, three. They never won again. They were 10 and three. And that was it. I think they lost their last five and just completely fell apart. We can talk about that later. But yeah, those were the two teams that I think really fell off.

And then conversely, Washington came back. I think because Daniels got healthy was probably the main reason for it. And then Houston died and then just randomly their defense came back at some point during that Chargers game, which we're going to talk about in a second. But I think those were, those were kind of the variance teams. I guess the chiefs might've been the other one because the chiefs were looking so creaky there and we were like this offense, they're just going to be able to score 20 points anymore. And then they gradually figured that out. Everything else has kind of went toward what we thought. It's so creaky there. And we were like, this offense, they're just going to be able to score 20 points anymore. And then they gradually figured that out.

Everything else has kind of went toward what we thought. Yeah. It's funny. Like after Saturday, I'm like, well, have we learned anything about the chargers and Steelers other than it's the same team we've been looking at for eight years? Right. You can't really trust them. They, uh, Steelers knuckleballed their way to the playoffs, uh, without a good quarterback and then don't show up.

I don't know what you want to talk about next, but the chargers were just brutal too. But, um, one thing on green bank is I want to move to bills and Steelers. I thought their D was good. And I thought they did a good job today. I thought Jacobs was good. Earl Campbell run his old Jersey coming apart. It's fun.

I like Watson as a player, but I don't think it should be a dramatic difference. I like their tight ends, craft of Musgrave. I don't know what I don't remember. I don't know. Musgrave was hurt or if he played or what happened, but, um, and then they lost dynamite doing the push push, their version of touch push. Hey, I don't want to make excuses for them because they got beat. Probably shouldn't have won, but that kickoff is a huge moment.

You can't, you can't turn it over on the road and you can't miss field goals. Denver missed the field goal. They weren't going to win that game. If you pause button a playoff game and the road team is getting the opening kickoff and fumbles on the kickoff. It's almost like the live bet. You almost want to bet everything on the other team. No matter.

It just feels like the worst element possible for the rest of the game. But the bottom line is Jordan love wasn't good. And there's probably some reasons for it that have to do with the, some of the weapons being gone, but he made some really bad throws. And I never felt like last year, especially in the playoffs, it felt like he was elevating. I didn't feel that way at all. And down the stretch here,

you know, I guess the bottom line, the message is don't fall in love with these quarterbacks too much. Jordan love CJ Stroud, even though we won not as good a year, Drake may, you know, I can go on and on. Come on. Just don't fall in love with these guys. Let's, uh, let's take one more break and then we'll do bills and Steelers. All right.

So I'm lumping bills, Broncos and Steelers Ravens together because this whole season, right. Because we did on teaser. It was the, we call it the anchor tease or the anchor parlay, whatever you wanted. My favorite was either these eight or eight and a half point teases. You could do with them on, uh, on Fandl and basically put anyone else you want, move the line eight points, eight and a half points. It's right around even odds.

And it just, it just seemed like a free way to gain eight points with everybody. It won with Tampa, it didn't win with the Chargers, it won with Houston. It won with Washington. I thought we were going to lose Fandl as a sponsor. I was like, is a, is a favorite ever going to lose again? I didn't agree. And then when Tampa was winning tonight, I don't even know. But yeah, they gave it to us.

Look, there's a lot of storylines for the year. Washington and Jay Daniels, the Lions, the Vikings coming out of nowhere. The Chiefs going for a three-peat. Like there's a lot going on, but this Josh versus Lamar thing ended up being the most fun thing to argue about. And it never, I know, as I said earlier, I never thought it got ugly. I, cause both guys have been great. And what's cool is both guys peeking at the right time. So today, Buffalo rushes 44 for two 10 and experimented with putting like the sixth offensive alignment out there as a tight end and just like fully bald, just like fully balled their way through the first half.

And then Baltimore yesterday, 50 carries for 299. Buffalo had the ball 41 minutes, Baltimore at 39, 33. So two teams that love having the ball, running it down your throats, playing each other with two magical quarterbacks who also in the playoffs run the ball more. This isn't, this is like one of the best games of the decade. I'm so excited for it. It's an incredible advantage. Like I said, these two teams have me even more than like Detroit.

Like I'm wowed by Detroit's offense too. But when you have like Josh Allen, like rolling left, it just looks weird. Variety quarterback rolling left and he could slide slither his way for like seven yards and then Lamar did that. I think he probably had like five of the first eight carries against the Steelers and like, Oh, they're this game's over too. They're done too. So yeah, when it, when they go against each other, I was so nervous

about that Buffalo game Simmons. I'm like, we all need this to complete a parlay. I had a last eight to start it and then anchored with these other two and the orange pants were a killer on the eyes for Denver. And then they scored right away. I'm like, shit, this is what we knew Denver was going to make, make us sweat it out in the first quarter. That was just the law.

There was just too much money. And then I was thinking about if you tease them and Buffalo could win by one, but you still don't cover the teas. There are all these different ways. But then Buffalo was like, we got this. I think combining the two of them, I think they're the two best, how do you stop this offenses we've had in a while. And I'm not ready to talk about them historically. And one of them might score seven points next week, but just when you're watching the moment in these playoff games, now that these quarterbacks don't have to worry about saving their bodies to the playoffs and can actually run and try to do stuff.

Daniels was like this too, with Washington. I just don't know what the move is when it's like third and four. It's like, it's like, you almost have to guess what the play is. Tecmo bowl style, charge Allen. He's still going to stiff arm the first guy, roll out and try to hit somebody's sidearm as he's rolling. And then Lamar is just like, he's like covered in grease. Even if you stop him, he's going by you. So I don't, I can't wait to watch this.

Romo said it. Romo said he's like, you could have a spy on these guys, but they're just better than all the spies. They're faster. They he's like, you could have a spy on these guys, but they're just better than all the spies. They're faster, they have a better, keener sense of the field than all the spies, and it's just tough. And you look at the Steelers, whose defense ended up being just average, right?

But I was thinking, wow, if they can't stop Lamar, if this can't be like a 17-15 type game that they're used to, forget it, who the hell's going to do it? Alan had a play in the first half when he was going around the corner and the guy knew what he was doing. And it was, I think it was a third down and the guy basically beat him to the spot and Alan just went around him, went down the sideline and got eight, took a guy on, knocked him over to instead of defending, like put his Jersey down on the puddle so that Allen could step over it.

It's getting ridiculous. But, but it's just, both of those guys just have these, oh my God, how do you stop this now Baltimore might not have Zay Flowers next week. That's not nothing. Buffalo seems like they have their full team and they really feel like they've, they've every, I don't know where they got this offensive line from that. You know, we did a lot of prep before the year. I remember liking certain things about their team and definitely they had an offensive line was one of the strengths. Now it feels like one of the best three offensive lines in the league.

Yeah. So, um, and James Cook is very good and they don't rely on one guy. It's not Stefan Diggs. Like, Oh, you don't get him the ball. He's going to be mad. And he's you're not, no, you look at the box score. They'll end up having like eight pass catchers. And, uh, yeah.

He said like 15 touchdown catchers this year. Yeah. I guess the difference is Baltimore is built to stop the run. They're really good at it. They're number one in the league. Buffalo is not. So if you're going to say, all right, both of these teams are going to go bully ball.

I think Baltimore has a better chance. Baltimore yesterday as they broke Pittsburgh spirit completely and totally, they had that 13 run, 85 yard touchdown drive where they did not pass, which is just a fuck you. Yeah. Honestly, that's just, you're just pulling it out at that point and just waving it around like a fucking last time. It's like, hey, hey, hey, hey, Tomlin, have some of this. Like it's such a fuck you. It really is. Like not one pass. That's just like, you're like, let's break these guys.

It's, they're off, hey, he's telling Harbaugh like, hey, I was thinking about just calling runs over and over again until we score just to fuck these guys. He's like, yeah, do it. Go ahead. Go for it. So. And Tomlin, I don't know.

I mean, that's six games in the playoffs. He's gone down by 21 or more. I don't know what you think about this guy. And then I look at the quarterback situation. It's like, this team doesn't have a chance unless the moon ball to Pickens works. Has to work like four times a game now for them to even have any kind of chance.

Well, we were betting on them over and over again and they were overachieving, looking great. And the Philly game was when it turned. They got their asses kicked by Philly and we all stayed at the craps table a game too long on that one. It felt like that three days and 11 days, three games in 11 days kind of broke them.

I was thinking about possible excuses for them. The three days in 11 days somehow didn't break Baltimore, Casey or Houston. They all like gained strength of it, but I guess Pittsburgh could blame it. Russell Wilson maybe is like a house guest that just kind of stays too long. It's like fun to have in the guest room for two months. Yeah. Month three, it's just leaving the fridge open and you're like, Oh man, this guy. Yeah.

I got to get off the couch. All right. Tomlin 18 years, the 18 year itch. I don't know if that's, is that a thing? I think it is. Yeah. Look it up. I have one more I could add to that.

Yeah. You called them the best AFC team back like December 2nd or so that might be another one. They were they were the one seed. No. Was that wrong? Yeah you were wrong yeah come on. Well in the moment was that wrong? Sure yeah. My whole point was they're the best team right now December or whatever. They weren't better than Buffalo. I believe. I mean all right okay it's fine I'm not blaming you, but it's fine. I'm going to wipe my tears with my, I went 27 and five and over under his handkerchief. Oh wow.

You have that. So I looked at their last six playoff losses for Pittsburgh. Yeah. Gave up 36 points to the Pats 45 to to the Jaguars, 48 to the Browns, 42 to the Chiefs, 31 to Buffalo last week, and then, uh, 28 to the Ravens this week, which really could have been more if the Ravens wanted to score more. Tom was supposed to be this like awesome defensive coach. We always talk about the ugly 18 to 16 games in, in January, it just goes away.

What happens? I don't know, but I also know they don't have the luxury of what the Patriots did. Right. Because they're not ever going to be in a position to draft a great quarterback. Um, right. So if, as long as the streak gets you, Oh my God, he did it. He went, they went over eight and a half wins again. You went on that.

That's great. Um, and then it's a first round exit in the playoffs. That's not going to change anytime soon, but now you're right. The margins are getting, are getting thick. Like the season is just too long for them. They're losing by too many points in the playoffs. I don't, I don't know what happens to that guy. I don't know what happened to their defense.

I thought the first two months, I thought they had the best defense in the league. Yeah. Um, as the DJ Watt got hurt at one point and it never felt like he was totally the same. They had some secondary injuries, but the first two months they were like the flying around defense and that I call it, who was calling them out? Who was the announcer for that Pittsburgh game? It was, uh, not Collins worth this week. Oh, it's Herbstreet.

Herbstreet. Yeah. It was, you know, he's not exactly like Mr. super critical. He was like calling them out in the first half. It's like, it was a playoff game. Where's the fight from this? Yeah.

Make a play. You kept saying, yeah, something weird happened. I don't know what happened with this team, but whatever we saw the last five weeks was not what we saw in the first three months from them. Yeah. I don't want to say he's losing the locker room, but this is the closest that looks to that in a long time. Would you trade Mike McCarthy in a second round pick for him?

I was, I gotta say, I was a little annoyed that the Patriots signed Vrabel. I'm like, Oh man, Tomlin could be available for them. They just waited like 48 hours. And yeah. For the Pats? Yes. For the Patriots. Yeah.

The Steyrers, they famously had only had three coaches in 130 years or whatever the thing is. Yeah. I don't know. I think they go in for the, after the season meeting with the owner and they're like, what happened this year, Mike? And he's like, I don't know our quarter, we paid $3 million for our quarterbacks. Yeah. That I won 10 games.

So what's the quarterback situation? Not that I care too much, but what, what, what possibly I know what I would do. I would trade the first pick for McCarthy. But then you still have Russell Wilson or Justin Fields and McCarthy. No, no, not, not I'm saying JJ McCarthy. Oh, okay. All right.

Yeah. Not my McCarthy. I was like, why hasn't he traded a ninth round pick for me? I know it's been a tough week, Bill, but what? No, this is a, no, I would trade for Mike McCarthy. No. I was like, what? I'm trading a night-trop pick for Mike McCarthy. I know it's been a tough week, Bill, but what? No. This is a... All right. No, I would trade for J.J. McCarthy.

Oh, gotcha. Interesting. Now, if Darnold shits the bed again tomorrow, he might not be available anymore. Right, right, right. Darnold could go from two weeks ago, we were talking about why won't they just pay him now, and now two weeks later, if he sucks again, it'd be like, well, at least they have GFG. That's not bad. There's not a ton of options for them. That's not a bad thought.

The other guy, they could trade for Joe Milton. I'll send them some week 18 Buffalo Pats game tape. Joe Milton lighting up the Bill's second string, pretending it was the first string. Chargers, Texans. Chargers. This was beyond shaky's right. This was, this was, we don't haven't gone in a while, but if we did, like people will be chucking their mojo potatoes at the screen for the first hour and the,

and the manager would threaten to turn the game to rerun the window. It was AI shaky's. It was AI created a shaky's broadcast. Yeah. Six, nothing charges are up after they just gave away possible touchdowns on two straight drives. The Texans are an absolute mess. Third and 16, they snapped the ball over Stroud's head.

And it seems like it's either going to be a safety touchdown, something great. This is right after the intentional grounding. They don't call. And he picks it up, rolls out. Everyone's charger stops, throws it to midfield and immediately turns it to a different quarterback. And from that point on, the Texans never look back. I had my best bet was the Texans over 19 and a half.

And you were making fun of me. Like how Texans over three and a half points looking. And I, I deserved it. They were terrible. I still don't think I picked the right side. They won 32 to 12 and I still don't think I got it right. I don't know if there was a right side. I think it was two wrong sides.

And Herbert's so weird because he'll throw a 22-yard completion to McConkie. I'm like, wow, that's the best throw of a football I've seen in a long time. It's beautiful. What a cannon. Yeah. Four interceptions later. I think we were going to rank his top 10 bad passes, but they ended up too many. We can't get to it.

So was that for you, is that a Houston is so resilient there that nobody believes in us game or is that a, we might never get there with Justin Herbert game. Oh man. I think it, can I say both? I'm not allowed to say both. You can say both. I'm going to say Houston, primarily? I'm not allowed to say both. You can say both. I'm going to say Houston, primarily Houston. And they scared me last year.

Remember that's what sent me on a tailspin and some others when we bet against them, the Browns were better team last year, right? When they went to Houston and Houston throttled them. I was like, you know what the chargers tend to have? I mean, now you got this quarterback going back to Herbert. He's had, what does he have? Like two teams that had three interceptions and he couldn't, the three turnovers and he couldn't beat them. That's the thing. Everything was going their way and he still couldn't close the game. Five years, zero playoff wins. He's three games over 500. If you include the playoff games, he's one game over 500. I was actually researching quarterbacks who never won a playoff game.

And the best one ever is YA Tittle. He never won one, huh? As much as we heard about him. Interesting. Had some, was in some big spots, apparently never won one. And then Andy Dalton was the other one. Andy Dalton never won a shaky game. Never won.

Oh, oh for five. Um, but the famous one was Stafford. First 12 years, oh, and three in the playoffs, never won anything. So maybe this is a Stafford type thing, but it's really unusual for a guy that's talented to not win. So you have that. And then you have, you know, we used to joke about the Delome. The Delome was, was four picks with a, with the fumble.

And then the Delome, the full Delome, I think was five picks with a fumble. And one of them had to be a pick six or something like that. So I went back and I looked quarterbacks in the last 50 years with, uh, with four picks and a fumble in a playoff game. And it's only 15 and 15, 15, but I think like people used to throw interceptions way more, way more than the old days. I guess. Todd Marinovich had one. I mean, but think like people used to throw interceptions way more, way more than the old days. I don't think they passed as much, I guess. Todd Marinovich had one, Jim Kelly, Richard Todd, Joe Ferguson, Tommy Kramer.

The one we watched together, the first simple we watched together, Tampa, Oakland, Rich Gannon, five picks, three pick sixes. So that was a, I guess the full Gannon is, is a five. Gannon sounds better anyway, I think. Yeah. So only three guys have thrown five picks with an interception, Delome, Gannon, and Kramer. The last two to do it were Brian Hoyer in 2016 and Carson Palmer the same year.

Right. I do remember that. He did the four with the, he had the pick six. I'll say this about Herbert cause I don't want to bury him completely yet, but, um, you know, I don't know that hard balls as psyched as he was a year ago. Right. I don't, I don't know. Well, we could, we could stop the comparisons to Joe burrow for sure.

Fine. Keep comparing them to two of that. That's good. But I don't know if you're, if you're hard ball, what's your thought process now? comparisons to Joe Burrow for sure. Fine. Keep comparing them to two of that. That's good. But I don't know if you're, if you're Harbaugh, what's your thought process now? It's like, oh shit, this is going to take a lot more work than I thought. Right. I think you move pretty quickly into, I got to get this guy more than one receiver. Um, there's a nerd case for blaming the offensive coordinator and the play

calling, but the, you know, the football nerds love Justin Herbert, no matter what he does. Here's the bigger question to me. Quarterbacks you'd rather have for the next eight years than Justin Herbert. So take it to 2033. I'll list them to you and you tell me when to stop. Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow take all four of those.

Right. Yeah. Would you take Jaden Daniels? Uh, sure. Right now, but I'm, you know, I'm going to be hesitant with the whole CJ Stroud thing, but yes, right now, CJ Stroud. I don't know. So toss up for you.

That's close. That's maybe where you got me. Wait a minute. There's not more. That's, that's, uh, There is more. Drake May? No. Come on. Come on. Let's see a little something else. If the charger's off for Justin Herbert, for Drake May straight up,

fuck yeah. What are you talking about? Rather have Drake May in a rookie contract contract a hundred times out of a hundred. You've not a good, whoever said you were a good businessman. Here's an interesting one. Mayfield. Oh, how old is Baker? Mayfield or Justin Herbert. He's been in the league since what?

2017? Dates a lot of years. If you told me four or five, I think it's easier. So you'd go four years, you'd say yes. I think so. Yeah. I love Baker. Dak, you wouldn't say eight years, but if I said four, you would take Dak for four. I think I would, yes. Darnold?

It's so funny how we all have to wait until tomorrow to say. Yeah. I don't want to look foolish. I'd say no, probably. Would you rather have Jared Goff or Justin Herbert? I'd rather have Herbert. Herbert, yeah. Would you rather have Caleb Williams or Justin Herbert?

Herbert right now. Why would I? Yeah. Okay. So that's it. The point of that exercise is as bad as he was in that game and he's never won a playoff game, he's still one of the top 10 QB assets, no matter what your preference is, you're still talking to yourself.

Yeah. Cause well, it'll get you 10 wins and maybe you can get lucky in the playoffs. And they were not lucky or good yesterday. I don't love the adversity piece with him. Like when it feels like when the wheels start coming off, it doesn't get better for him, right? You know, it, it feels when it's going good. He seems great.

And then that's a whole other way. Some of those knows I would rather take some of those guys down 10 than Herbert for sure. Yeah. I'd rather take some of those guys down 10 than Herbert for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Um, all right, let's take a break and then we'll do guess the lines.

All right. So we're going to do guess the lines around too. We're only have three games that have lines. We're going to come back Monday night after Minnesota and the Rams and do a little short, maybe 25 minute pod where we talk and the Rams and do a little short, maybe 25 minute pod where we talk about the game and then guess the line. Because we like to guess every line. It's not our fault they changed, made it a three day round one. I kind of love doing the pod with you, but yeah, they, it was a little tidier when everything was done by Sunday night and also make that game in Vegas, move

everything that when in doubt, move everything to Vegas. What's Glendale? Which game? Oh, the- The Rams Vikings. Yeah, why isn't that in Vegas? It's an easier drive to Vegas if you're in LA. If it's a football game, if it's a bachelor party,

if it's an intervention, just move it to Vegas. It's an easy thought. Get it out there. They love Glendale. They love how like middle of the road between the two teams it is for some reason. It's like if we put it in Arizona, it's perfectly neutral. The NFL just feels like it's the most neutral territory possible. I don't know. It's not the first time they've went to Glendale. I'm with you. Why not go to Vegas?

Go to Vegas. Yeah. Okay. I'll do the AFC games first. All right. Chiefs, Texans in Kansas City. The only reason I was scared of Houston in that, I really liked the Chargers in that Chargers game. Houston had a whiff of nobody believes in us. And then you look at them more and you're like, there's a reason nobody believes in you.

You guys have sucked. Like the only things that would make anyone believe in you are the models on home underdogs during the playoffs and some of the stuff housed it on the show. Like there's gambling nerd metrics that we should believe in you. But from what we've watched from a football standpoint, you guys have sucked. So I don't feel bad about missing that

as a nobody believes in us, but in this game, it's gonna kick up. There's always like a two and a half line that they screw you with, right? Like, oh, I just have to pick the winner here? The Chargers are better than the Texans. So, but until that was the one. You know, the thing with that game though, I really thought the Chargers offensive line was going to be able to handle the edge rushers on Houston.

They've good tackles. And yet over and over again, Houston was coming on the edge and they think they had four saps. completely disrupted them. Yeah. Right, right, right. I just, I just pegged it wrong. Anyway, Chiefs Texans, I have chiefs by nine.

All right. Don't get mad, but I hit this exactly seven and a half. Wow. That's what I said. So I jacked it up because I thought they would not want us to tease the chiefs. And I thought they'd put it at nine so that even if you tease them, you still had chiefs minus three chief seven and a half. They're basically opening the floodgates for a tease.

They've done a weird disrespectful thing for the chiefs and their lines, you know, as much as they can for a 15 win team. And they've kind of done it all season long. The big thing I'm hearing is it seems like it's a disadvantage and Fandl is also treating it as a disadvantage that they've been off for two weeks. Like, oh, the Chiefs are off two weeks and they didn't play anyone week 18. So that's really two weeks. Like, yeah, they do this every year and they win the Superbowl like every other year. So why are we going crazy about it? I can understand it after week 12, week 13 range when we were really worried about the Chiefs.

And it really felt like, what were they, 12 and one? It felt like they could have been easily eight and five or seven and six with five different plays. I liked the way they ended the season up until when they didn't have to play anymore. I thought they were more explosive. I thought Pacheco was, once he came back, that run the ball better.

I just liked how they looked more. And I think they're delighted in this matchup, honestly. I don't think they want, you know, they wouldn't have been afraid of hardball, but the charges well twice. I think that at a point loss in the seven point loss and hard ball going to Kansas. You know, I think Andy Reid gets a little freaked out there, but this they'll slap this team around. I think. The only case would be the Houston pass rush again, Casey's tackles aren't great.

I think the only case would be the Houston pass rush again. Casey's tackles aren't great. Um, some sort of dumb Casey first half where they have three points, you know, 20 minutes into the game and then mixing, pounding the ball down their throat. I don't know. Listen, I'm, I'm teasing the chiefs. I'm just telling you. I know it's been a rough week. You and I and your financial planner, we're going to sit down Tuesday, Wednesday-ish, and

we're going to figure out how much you want to put on the chiefs, Ohio state moneyline file. And so you're- Oh, you're still in on Ohio state. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that's easy. So let's just do it. Not have to worry about anything.

You're not afraid of Notre Dame? No, no, no. It's mismatch. It's mismatch upfront. Not have to worry about anything. You're not afraid of Notre Dame. No, no, no. It's mismatch. It's a mismatch upfront. They can get bullied. Bill's Ravens is our second game.

I had this all week battling back and forth between minus two and half, minus three, and I think I'm wrong, but I have the Bills and Buffalo. Favored by three. Against the Baltimore Ravens. It's exactly what I thought. And I stand by it. Our friends at Fandl have the Bills only favored by one and a half. Ooh, the Tic Tac zone. Yeah.

Did we see a little flipperoo? Oh, you think the Ravens will get the nod? I just, every time we're in the 1.5 tic tac zone, sometimes by Wednesday, all of a sudden it's like, wait a second, Baltimore's favored a Buffalo now. Can we talk about what this means? Like why, how they may have arrived at this? Because it doesn't really make sense to me. Maybe they arrived the same way.

I've kind of arrived mentally. I like the Ravens. You do. I do. I, I forgot to do this before I had this Derek Henry thing I was going to do with you. Go ahead. Let's do it. Which quarterback would you want over Derek Henry?

Oh no. I was looking up, I was trying to think of how many guys were awesome from like the first moment they played in high school all the way through. And they're still awesome now. Like I think LeBron's been like that, right? LeBron was awesome as a ninth grader all the way through. He's been awesome for 26 years. Henry as a freshman in high school at Uly in 2009 rushed for 2,465 yards and 7.9 yards of carry.

He was like 14 years old. He finished his career. He ran for 12,124 yards in high school, 8.7 yards per carry and 153 touchdowns. So he's, I don't know if he's the greatest high school running back ever, but if they, whenever anybody writes that article, he has to be one of the first people mentioned it's like Emmett Smith. And you go through, you have to have Henry in the first couple. Well, week nine against Norwich is junior year.

He says he had the flu, but he only went from like 130. So then he goes to Alabama, they're stacked at running back. He plays anyway, um, second year better. And then third year, 2,219 yards, 5.6 a carry turns pro. And he's rushed for 11,423 yards in nine years. He's had three years where he ran for over five yards of carry. And then another year he was four, nine this last year he ran for five five yards of carry. And then another year he was four nine. This last year he ran for five nine and carry in 1921.

It's the second best year of his career. There's nobody like him. He's a complete one on one. We've never seen a running back who does the things that he does. I can't compare him to anybody we've ever, like there's pieces of like Christian Okoye, Eric Dickerson. I don't know who he is. Yeah. And he's exactly as good as he was when he came in the league. Like there's pieces of like Christian Okoye, Eric Dickerson. I don't know who he is. Yep.

And he's exactly as good as he was when he came in the league. And I don't know how long it continues, but it's weird that we had that one playoffs when we talked about him, when the tight, when the Titans were like nine and eight or nine and seven, and then they made it all the way the AFC title game and it was like, Oh my God, is Derek Henry more valuable than any quarterback? And that was the only time he had a moment in the sun. And now you watch him, moment in the sun. Yeah. And now you watch him, especially in that playoff game. And it's like, are we just completely under 80 Baltimore?

And is this Lamar Henry thing? Are we going to look back at this and think this was one of the most amazing combos we've had in the league this century? Anyway, that's why I would like the Ravens. Well, I think you could be right about all that stuff. I mean, it's amazing. A guy does so well in high school that he's drafted in college

and he does so well in college. The post is like, wow. But how are you this great as a running back for 15 straight years? I know, but his yards per carry went down a couple of those years. But he's unstoppable. I get it, he's awesome.

He was unstoppable. He was a freshman in high school, 15 years later, nobody could stop him. It's amazing. Listen, I can say- Persha Walker slowed down. Fandle had Saturday, highest rushing yards on Saturday. I was like, it's Derek Henry. Why is it minus 125?

JJ's arguing with me. I was like, just stop, just bet Derek Henry to have the most yards on Saturday. He's going to have the most yards for the weekend. What'd he end up with? 186? 186 or something. So yeah, he's great. They're great.

The only thing is, I don't know, like they have to, sometimes they, they don't figure out how to manage the load between Lamar and Henry sometimes. He's four, nine per carry for his career. And then five Oh in the postseason. Usually we always talk about running backs. It's like a shelf life of four years, five years, maybe six years. This guy's going to, you know, he's floating around in for agency and people were like, I might be too old.

And it turned out he was just on a team that didn't have quarterbacks for four years. I think this guy's one of the all time freaks. Like I think Moss was a freak. I think Lawrence Taylor was a freak. We talk about like the freak athletes that we've watched since we've been alive and love football and Henry, it's a short list, but he's definitely on it. He's a one-on-one to me. I'm not going to argue.

I will have to see his like stats in Turkey bowl when his parents played him and when he was like nine years old and stuff, but I'll trust you. Senior year, 13 games, 4,261 yards. Wow. He ran for 4,000 yards. Sign him up. I know, it's stupid. It's really dumb.

Yeah, he's got a lot of wear and tear on him. It doesn't make any sense. Or he doesn't. Or he has no wear and tear because he's a freak. Maybe he keeps going. But it does look like you see, there's like the videos of Lamar from high school, where he has like a couple just freaky. Yeah. You know, uh, he is that one that run into the end zone where he just stops and the guy goes by him and he just pauses and then he goes in.

And it's just like some of these dudes, they just had it when they were 14. Then there's the late bloomer types, even Cooper Dejan. Have you seen the basketball footage of him? Like two hands slams? I don't know. These guys are good athletes. These guys are good athletes. I'm glad you're learning that. I still take one and a half slight.

Sorry. No, I just think, I think Henry is one of the all time freaks since we've been watching football. He's phenomenal. I would put him at the top, top, top freak level of all these dudes. Um, and I, I wonder, is he the key guy in round two? Not the reason I brought that up. Is he the key guy in round two? Not Lamar. Cause the bills, they're medium sized. They're not big. I do feel like you can batter in random and he just softens them up and then Lamar can do his stuff on the side.

But why did you make this line three? If you like Baltimore so much. I was just trying to guess what Vegas would have because I think Vegas really likes the Bills. Yeah. I don't know. Where does the line end up you think? You're going Ravens. Yeah.

As soon as we hang this zoom up, you're putting the Ravens on a teaser with somebody. I know you are. To me, I want to bet them straight up because there's still the Lamar playoff stuff still makes me a whiff nervous. So I wouldn't want to tie it with another bet. I'd rather tease the Chiefs with one of the NFC teams. Mack Hollins had 13 touchdown receptions in high school. Played varsity in ninth grade.

4,241 yards. That's preposterous. I know. It's crazy. I guess he got hurt for like eight games one year in Tennessee, but there's just no wear and tear at all. He's like a car that has 200,000 miles on it that can still go 200 miles an hour. If he went to our son's high school, we'd be talking about him so much our kids would hate us.

Right? Like shut up, dad. Pay attention to me. It's like, yeah, but you got a running back in your school who ran for 4,300 yards. I was on a tech story about this this week and I was saying, it's like the kid in the little league world series game, the Cody Webster kid, who's just bigger than everybody else.

Right. And then that kid grows up and he's, that's the highlight of his life. Right. Derek Henry was probably that kid at age eight and he's still that guy now and he's 30. He's been that guy for over two decades. He still looks like you watch and you go, how's anyone tackling this? All right.

Third game, Detroit home for Washington. Yep. You know where this is going. It's going right in the Vegas zone for me. Detroit by five and a half. Ooh. Wow. I said seven and a half and it's eight and a half. Oh.

Wow. You're going to beat me this week. Wait a minute. Do we even have to do Guess Alliance tomorrow? Yeah, we do. We still have to do it for posterity. You don't have to start your guys. You can be like when the chiefs rest, I'm a rest 18.

Yeah. You can look up some Derek Henry high school footage. You can go over that somewhere. Some of his games at Ulee. We'll talk about our Sacramento bet. This is eight and a half. This is, um, I was trying to figure out why it's even higher than seven and a half, what I guess, but so Tampa was what?

Three and Detroit's eight and a half. I think that's ridiculous. I don't understand that at all with Detroit's defense because they look good on against Minnesota because Darnold sucked and sailed like 10 passes. We now we're now we think Detroit's defense is back. They gave up 40 plus points points like three weeks before that. The over-under is by high, by far the highest so far and, um, at 55 and a half. So I guess they're thinking it could get out of hand with one score, even if it's close late.

Well, this lined up really nicely for the Lions. Yeah. They get the one seed. They get a week off. They get Washington around too. That just pulled out yet another crazy win, but still has a rookie quarterback. Like the leap of just thinking mentally of Washington. I know they want 12 games.

They're a good team, but just thinking about them in the NFC title game. That seems like a lot. Give me, if you're, if you're Dan Campbell, and let's say you get through this game out of the three possible opponents, Rams, Vikings, Eagles, who do you want? I think I'd be the most afraid of the Vikings as crazy as that sounds. Really? And they might lose tomorrow. It's familiarity.

Yeah. Don't you think? Yeah, maybe. Because I do think there's a world where those were the two best teams, not just in the NFC, but the whole league potentially. Withstanding the whole Chiefs playoff pedigree and all that stuff. But what if AJ Brown puts down the book and- Maybe he'll finish inner excellence by then.

He's got a long time. It's got two weeks. I, uh, with the way Hertz looks, I wouldn't be as scared of the Eagles as I would have been four weeks ago. Right. I think. Yeah. I mean, he had 39 yards at halftime.

I know. I just read you the hits as numbers and that he's winning these playoff games. It's ridiculous, but it does bug me that third and three, they got you over a barrel every single time. All right. So we're, we're going to, uh, we'll save the rest of it for tomorrow when we react off. All right. We'll get that up. Two, I'm up three to one. I won the week. I'm up three to one.

We'll do it for fun. What's the, what's the, are we tied now for the season? We were tied heading into the week. Yeah. So I'm up by one. This is great. This could be your first title. This could give hope to Buffalo fans, Minnesota fans, Washington

commanders fans, Lions fans. Let me read you my guess, the Lions record in middle school. I went 16 weeks in a row. How many great high school to their thirties athletes can you think of who were great the entire time all the way through? Cause I guess like in basketball, it's like for me, basketball happens way more easy to figure out. Football happens with the quarterbacks,

but the running backs and the receivers, I would argue it doesn't really, Emmett was like that. Emmett was awesome. Emmett was great. Right? He was awesome. He was a high school college pro guy.

Yeah. But other than that, I don't know. Saruti, are there other guys that I'm not thinking of? How many guys were awesome high school college pros? So he's got to turn his zoom on. Oh yeah, there he is. I mean, Arch Manning, Trevor Lawrence were big, but Arch Manning didn't play. Yeah.

Oh, Peyton's a good one. Was Peyton awesome? Like ninth grade on. He couldn't get over the, the hump though in college. Right? Wasn't that kind of the knock on him? Right. You still put up stats. Yeah, no, he was great.

He just couldn't be Florida. Yeah. I guess Randy Moss, but then Randy Moss had to transfer when he was in college and the college went a little sideways for a second. Mm hmm. Oh, Adrian Peterson, right? But that's a good one. Obviously you slowed down. He was in college and the college went a little sideways for a second. Oh, Adrian Peterson, right? But that's a good one.

Obviously you slowed down in the last couple of years, but yeah, a ridiculous recruiting class. So Rudy, when, when Henry got, when he went, fell to the second round after the Alabama season, did that seem like the right range for you? Or did you think everybody was a big, No, you remember people called that like a terrible pick because, you know, he's like big, was he fast enough? There were people that really didn't like that pick at all.

But the guy was too slow? I don't know. Yeah. Which is weird because I think he did, I don't think his 40 time was terrible, but yeah, like there were people that crushed that pick as a second round pick and, uh, I don't know. It's always weird though with the Alabama running bass because sometimes, you know, like they're just, they play with the best offensive line and yada, yada, yada. That was a knock. Yeah, right. Yeah. The whole thing.

I'm sure the listeners will come up with a couple of them. Yeah, I know. They're going to kill us for missing an obvious one. Well, you know, I was looking at one of those lists where they had the 50 best Tony Dorsett was apparently one of the great high school running backs of all time. And then he was really good at Pittsburgh too. Pennsylvania. So he might be another one.

How long was his, his Cowboys run was probably eight or nine years. So he's another, yeah. Yeah, right in there. All right. Thanks. Suri, who do you like in the title game? Oh, wow. What's the line in the Ohio state?

It's like, is it a six now? What is it? Oh, so I'm sorry. No, it's eight and a half. Yeah. So tease them with the Ohio state. It's like, is it a six now? What is it? Oh, so I'm sorry. Eight and a half. No, it's eight and a half. Yeah. So tease them with the chiefs. You could tease it.

Money. I, I, like I said, we're going to sit down with your financial planner. Okay. All right. Can't be taken. Thanks, Sarudy. All right. Wanna, should we skip parent corner this week and talk California?

We could. Yes. We should mention that as, as we're, we're recording this on a Sunday night and we got notice a couple of hours ago that there's like a severe wind thing coming on Tuesday. So it's hard to say where we're going next, but this was already the worst week since I've been in LA. By far, not even close. One of the biggest natural disasters in American history. And I can't wrap my head around it all these days later.

And you're over in the Manhattan Beach area. I don't know how much you've dealt with some of the areas that were affected when we're talking Palisades and Malibu and Eaton, Altadena were the big four. We knew a lot of people from friends of friends, people my kids went to school with who lived in different parts. And I don't even know how to describe this to people who don't live in California. Like the wide swath of devastation. The Palisades just basically

being gone. Whole parts of Malibu just being gone. Eatin' Altadena. It's one of those things when you see it, when you watch it on TV and it's happening in other areas and it's like, man, that seems awful, but you don't really fully understand it until you live there. And I don't, I know I'll come back. I know everybody bounces back eventually, but, uh, man, it's, it's really hard to even understand how the rebuilding is going to happen and how long it's going to take, and you just see those wide overhead shots of these different areas. And it's just like, it's, it's just so awful and it's just been an awful week. And, and it just feels like it's not going to get better.

Yeah. And that's also part of it. And I'm sorry, I know this goes on and like Maui and other places and we should be thinking about that. But yeah, when it's in your backyard and like people are checking in with me, I'm like, I don't know. I'm good for now. I'm all right for now. I have no idea. And it depends on the wind and somehow, did you know they could predict wind for three days? I didn't even know they could do that. But, um, so we know like there's bad shit ahead and we know a lot of people who got devastated and it's really rough.

It really, I don't want to bum everyone out, but it really is like, Oh my God, you feel like you have so much control over your life. And then, and then you don't, you really don't with like something stupid like this and we don't know how it started and we don't know how it's going to end. And, uh, and that's, uh, and we need football as a distraction and it, it's hardly ranks as important, but, uh, I mean, for God's sakes, I wish we could like talk about this as if it's going on in the past, but it's not. Yeah.

It doesn't seem like it's over yet. We'll see. I mean, we've been here. I've been here since 02 and you've been here a few years before that. And there's been wind events and it's been windy. And I remember, um, over and over again, especially like even taking my daughter to soccer tournaments and it would be like 35 degree, 35 mile an hour winds in Lancaster and stuff like that. For some reason, these winds seemed

a little, they were pointing them out a couple of days before like, hey, this is pretty scary this time around. And then everything that happened was so much worse than you ever, ever could imagine. Even heading through Tuesday, like it was starting the Palisades and then all of a sudden by mid, early Tuesday night here, you really felt like this could go. In a, in a direction you just never could have been in your worst nightmare. Imagine, but, um, first responders, fire department, police department, um, the helicopter pilots drop in the water, all the T all the TV people who were out there braving the elements.

I mean, that one of the things that the things that was really inspiring was how many people were trying to get out there, trying to tell us what was going on. And for a lot of people watching TV, not knowing if it was their neighborhood, their house. And it was, you're just relying on all these people, these Twitter accounts like that LA scanner account. But and it turned out to be just a 10 out of 10, the worst case scenario that we could have had. Yeah.

Yeah, like you said, even the reporters and these firestorms like that are going on like, you know, a hundred feet behind them. It's like, what is going on? And like I said, I wish that the worst is behind us, but then, you know, we have a mutual friend that's a doctor at UCLA and he's like, yeah, man, they have to evacuate this hospital if the, if the storm comes, if the fires come within two and a half miles of this place. And it's right now it's four. I was like, are you

kidding me? What the hell, what does that look like evacuating a whole giant hospital? Like that's, that's my God, that's going to be something that's just even more outrageous and right up there with anything else so Yeah, just you know plenty of go fund me's out there plenty of places to look to help plenty I'm gonna get scammers to that are assholes trying to take advantage of this But just be careful and be diligent and you know Yeah, I'm gonna I wanted to really kind of dive into it and see which ones I trusted and maybe on the next podcast could talk about some of the possibilities.

Some of the stuff's gonna get rebuilt and I'm sure it's gonna take a while. There's some other stuff that I don't know how they, how stuff comes back, houses that were from 1940, 1950 that you would never build the same way and some pieces of California that just had real special characters. Certainly one of the reasons I wanted to live here,

being near the ocean and just some of the coolest parts of the country I'd ever seen. And then on top of it, just, I think losing your house and having no power over that and just knowing all the stuff that you kept and everything's gone. Like I don't, there's very few worse feelings than that. So it's just so much pain and so much heartbreak out here. Um, we tried to do podcasts, tried to talk football and tried to keep

people's minds off it for an hour, but, um, it's really, really horrible. And I really hope we've hit the end of it and then it's not going to get worse. That'd be nice, right? That'd be nice. After all this parlay and teaser talk, let's just get a, let's get everyone safe. Um, well that's it. Best of luck to everybody out there. We're really sorry about everything that happened.

Um, on one of the later podcasts that we do, hopefully this week, um, we'll try to have some, maybe even tomorrow when we come back tomorrow for that last game, maybe we could try to figure out a couple of good things that we actually trust and a couple ways to get the word out to try to help people. I mean, it was just, it's crazy. Your week started with one of the Bella twins twerking four feet from you. I mean, I think that was Monday night. It feels like it was a hundred.

That was 65,000 to make parent corner and, uh, too many terrible things happened. And so anyway, well, we're really feeling for everybody out there. And it's, it's just really heartbreaking. I really come to love LA too. And, uh, you know, it's just, uh, it's just hard to wrap your head around, especially places that you've been to a million times and now you think, well wait a second, what's that going to look like now? But hopefully we can all get through this

and figure it out. So, I will see you tomorrow night. Let's do it tomorrow. Good job by you, Billy. Good job by you. Thanks to Kyle and Saruti and Gahal for producing. You can watch this video on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel as well.

And we will see you on Monday night. Please everybody, stay safe. Must be 21 plus in president select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in president DC. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777

or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here, visit Gambling Helpline, ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.