The Bill Simmons Podcast - Super Bowl LIII Bets and Props With Cousin Sal | The Bill Simmons Podcast (Ep. 477)

Episode Date: February 1, 2019

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to finalize their wagers before Super Bowl Sunday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices...

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Today's fourth episode of the week of the Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. You know what's smart? Doing an extra podcast during a crazy sports week. That's what we did. You know what else is smart? Job sites that don't overwhelm you with tons of the wrong resumes. Luckily, there's a smart way at ZipRecruiter.com slash BS.
Starting point is 00:00:18 They find people the right skill for your job. They actively invite them to apply. Right now, my listeners can try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash BS. ZipRecruiter is the smartest way to hire. We're also brought to you by TheRinger.com, the world's greatest website, where you can be watching videos and pieces and podcasts from Atlanta heading into the big game. We've got The Ringer NFL Show. We have Dual Threat with Ryan Rosillo. We have a bunch of videos, including one today with Kevin Clark and Roger Sherman at an aquarium. Cool shots at fish as they talked about football. I kind of liked it.
Starting point is 00:00:55 So we got that. And then we have, obviously, the Rewatchables podcast, Proof of Life, the most controversial pick we've ever had. We have people thanking us, people congratulating us, people vilifying us. That's fine. That's coming up. And I think we have the Warriors next week.
Starting point is 00:01:13 Yeah, 40-year anniversary. So that's coming. And then if you missed the Porzingis Emergency Trade Podcast, which we did Thursday early afternoon, that's up. That's also on this BS feed. Emergency Trade Podcast, which we did Thursday early afternoon. That's up.
Starting point is 00:01:27 That's also on this BS feed. So there you go. Cousin Sal's coming up. We're going to do our favorite props, make a pick, a million-dollar pick for the big game. But first, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, hectic day here at the old Ringer headquarters. It is now late afternoon, Thursday. We were supposed to put up South Super Bowl props and all that stuff.
Starting point is 00:02:09 We're going to do that anyway, even though we just did a Porzingis Emergency Trade Podcast. The Cuz is on the line. How are you? I love it. I have to tell you, this is my favorite podcast of the year. And then the next one we do is my least favorite podcast of the year,
Starting point is 00:02:23 where you get to gloat about a Patriots Super Bowl victory. Don't jinx me. That's not fair. You're from New York, and you have a lot of Knicks fans, friends. In the two hours since we taped the Porzingis podcast, which we all agreed was a catastrophe, it came out that the Knicks get an unprotected 2021 first-rounder from Dallas and then a top- protected in 2023, which I guess is okay. The problem is that Dallas is going to have Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis.
Starting point is 00:02:57 They're going to be good. So it makes it a slightly less worse deal, but it's still a terrible deal. What was your take? Is it worse? Is it better or worse than our fantasy football deal? Todd Gurley for Marshawn Lynch, Sony Machado.
Starting point is 00:03:15 Oh yeah, the deal that ripped apart our league. Right. That deal was even more defensible, I think. This one's weird because you're just trading, you're trading your franchise guy
Starting point is 00:03:25 who the Knicks fans really love just to create cap space to hopefully sign a bunch of guys this summer, but the Knicks fans are already hip to that point and it didn't work in 2010. So it's tough. You really have to think KD's coming to do this trade. He basically had to have already you know picked out his jersey
Starting point is 00:03:46 and his condo and everything else already is the only way it's justifiable. He's got it. Yeah he's got a weekly spot on
Starting point is 00:03:52 Francesca's show. He's already got it filled out. Yeah I think how about Dallas though both basketball and football pulling off the deals
Starting point is 00:04:00 of the year. Both of them. Oh yeah. And then this one I almost think the Mavs did it I think they were in cahoots with Jerry Jones off the deals of the year. Both of them. Oh, yeah. And then this one. I almost think the Mavs did it. I think they were in cahoots with Jerry Jones, who was a little sheepish about saying that they weren't extending Jason Garrett.
Starting point is 00:04:14 So now that story goes away. That's not a front page story anymore. Oh, you think he hit them up and said, can you guys get me off the headlines? Yeah, maybe something like that. Did you extend Jason Garrett's contract? That happened? What do you mean? No.
Starting point is 00:04:31 Did they announce that today? Because I missed that. They announced that they weren't. Oh, that they weren't? Yeah, they announced that they weren't. But, you know, Jerry Jones always feels bad about it. They really didn't announce it. It's like rumors.
Starting point is 00:04:42 It was reported. I think Schefter reported it, but no one actually came out and said it. But, you't announce like rumors it was reported like Schefter reported it but no one actually came out and said it but you know after that Pro Bowl performance what more can be said?
Starting point is 00:04:51 At some point we're going to have to get rid of the Pro Bowl. I think you and Harry are the last two people on the earth who are still gambling on it. That's it.
Starting point is 00:04:58 It's not funny anymore. It was good when it was like 42-37 but now when the games are like 20-13, who cares anymore? So I went on your podcast. We talked to the trifecta.
Starting point is 00:05:10 We banged out a bunch of great props that you and I negged most of them. What was our favorite prop from the trifecta? What was the one that you loved the most? I like these three. I like Rams to score first but lose was plus 350. That was a parlay kid. Oh, that was a good one. And then Harry had, will there be a two-point conversion attempt?
Starting point is 00:05:29 Yes. It was minus 115. It's already up to minus 145. And then Brother Bri, like under one and a half yards for the shortest touchdown, but that's already up to minus 200. So under one and a half yards, touchdown is already plus 200? I really like that one. You don't like that one?
Starting point is 00:05:51 No, I really do, but I don't like the minus 200. It just happens all the time. It's not a secret anymore. Can we parlay that with anything or no? I think we can find something to parlay with. And the Pats to convert a fourth down is minus 115. I like that a lot. I don't know if it's going to be Brady nosediving up the middle
Starting point is 00:06:08 against Sue and Donald, but I do like that. I think there's a lot of fourth and short scenarios out there. I was looking at all the Pats touchdown bets, and the odds are really low, and especially that bet we were talking about on your podcast, which was you bet. If you think the team's going to win, you bet on the guy to score on the team that you think is going to win.
Starting point is 00:06:30 And you get better odds. But like James White is plus 250 for that. So you bet on James White. He's going to score and the Patriots are going to win plus 250. He's only scored seven times all year. You know? And like Gronk was, I think, plus 230. Gronk scored seven times all year, you know? And like Gronk was, I think, plus 230. Gronk scored seven times all year.
Starting point is 00:06:49 He hasn't scored in the playoffs. Nobody else in the Patriots has scored more than three times this year in the regular season. So it's almost, it's too bad we can't short those bets or maybe take them from dumb people at a Corolla Super Bowl party. Yeah, just show up in the front. You'll get them coming in. I like all the James White props.
Starting point is 00:07:07 I don't know. Maybe I'm late to the party here, but James White to make the first reception is plus four 50. If they get the ball, you know how they like to settle into that offense in a month, some flare route or something. Yeah. What I said yesterday to have the most receiving yards at anyone,
Starting point is 00:07:22 you're going to have between five and 15 receptions. That was also like a, that was a 10 to one odds. You could do that at over a hundred yards against the Falcons. The part I don't understand is why he didn't play more in the KC game. And it really does seem like they go running back by committee. So I don't know if that hurts our James White stats. Well, that's, that is the one problem.
Starting point is 00:07:46 It's a big problem because he's so schizophrenic Belichick with this running game and how he's going to parcel out the carries. That's why I think I kind of think like Sony Michelle under 80 and a half yards rushing is pretty good. I, the more I think about this game, Sony's not a big dude. He's not, he's one of those guys that he's not trucking. He's, you know,
Starting point is 00:08:08 you have the smaller running backs, but they're not trucking the linebacker and stuff like that. He pretty much goes down. Kyle, wouldn't you agree? The first guy pretty much will take him down unless he can kind of sneak by him. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:08:19 Every once in a while, he surprises you. Every once in a while. That was nice. But Sue, the thought of him against Sue really worries me. If Sue,
Starting point is 00:08:27 you would think like, Sue, from a motivational standpoint, the knock on him is the guy's a great talent, but doesn't always bring it to the table. If there's ever a game he's going to bring it to the table,
Starting point is 00:08:38 you have that. And then you have the Aaron Donald part. And we don't have that LeGarrette Blount guy this year. You know, and I worry that they might be able to overpower our running backs a little bit. And the flip side, the Pats have been able to block so well that maybe they
Starting point is 00:08:54 can figure it out. But what do you think, Sal? But 80 and a half yards is 16 carries. I guess he had something crazy, right, against the Chiefs in the first half. What was it? He had 29 carries. 19 carries in the first half. What was it? He had 29 carries. 19 carries in the first half? Yeah, he had 29 carries in that game.
Starting point is 00:09:07 I don't think they're going to do that again. 29 overall. Yeah. You can't tell with him. It was deceiving because it was 29 carries. And I don't know. I felt like he left a lot of yards on the table. There were a lot of holes in that game.
Starting point is 00:09:22 I would have been interested to see what an awesome running back would have done in that game. I'm also intrigued by James White. I'm going to go through some props that I like, but I'm not jumping on, but I wanted to mention them and maybe you could talk me into them. All right. There won't be a
Starting point is 00:09:40 defensive or special teams touchdown. Minus 250. Yeah, you like that one. You forgot about the one against Atlanta. I did. The pick six for Brady. That was such a flash. But I see what you're saying here.
Starting point is 00:09:55 It's minus 250. I'm staying away only because the line's too high. But man, I just think it's really hard to get a defensive or special teams touchdown. Yeah. Maybe in the Superbowl things get wacky. Teams get desperate stuff like that. But that,
Starting point is 00:10:09 that line just jumped out at me. I like this. What do you think? Before you move on from that, they're lying now in a walking boot. McVay. I don't know if he's being truthful. He says he's going to be ready.
Starting point is 00:10:21 Right. That prop kind of, that, that prop stands out a little more if he's not able to reach the end zone. There's no touchbacks, you know, and these guys are eager, these kick returners to run it out of the end zone.
Starting point is 00:10:30 Anyway, it's a super bowl. That's good. I like that. Seven yards in. I want to figure something like that. Do you, do you think there's a chance like day of the game?
Starting point is 00:10:39 They just scratched their line. Do they have a backup guy or no? How did they, how does that work? I read something about them maybe calling Carlos Santos in. Can you sign a kicker this late? In fantasy football, we don't allow it to sign anyone
Starting point is 00:10:51 this late. Can they sign Cody Parkey for the Bears? Is that possible? Can the Bears trade Cody Parkey to them? You do a Today Show after? Where's that South Korean Chargers kicker? Oh, I love that guy. Yeah, that would have been nice. Maybe we should bet against.
Starting point is 00:11:07 What's a Zerline will miss a kick bet? What are the odds on that? I'll find that, but I think that's minus 275 or something. I think I saw that. That he'll miss a kick? A field goal or any kick? Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:22 Minus 275? Yeah. I'll find it, but that's what it was in the beginning of the week. goal or any kick. Yeah. Yeah. Minus 275. Yeah. I'll find it, but that's what it was in the beginning of the week. Yeah. But wouldn't, he's a great kicker though. Wouldn't the, shouldn't the odds be, you should be. Oh, that he'll miss it.
Starting point is 00:11:34 That he'll miss it. Okay. I'm sorry. Yeah. I'm going the other way with it. Yeah. It's like plus 220 or something. Yeah. That's kind of, the guy's in a walking boot.
Starting point is 00:11:42 All right. So I think this game is going to be close, and I think you do too. Will either team score in the last three and a half minutes of the game? If the game goes to overtime, yes is the winner. So I get the last three and a half minutes, and I get any overtime that happens, and the yes is minus 185,
Starting point is 00:12:04 which I wish it was a little lower. I like it. I also like the last score will be a touchdown. It feels like it has been. Just the Eagles scoring. I feel like obviously the Patriots won overtime against the Falcons. Just feel like someone puts it away with a big play. And that's what we watch all summer long.
Starting point is 00:12:23 That big play in the fourth quarter. Well, going through all the Pats games, I mean, can we say a team trends when it's been over the course of 18 years as a Super Bowl thing? I don't even know if that makes sense, but the Patriots, they play close Super Bowls
Starting point is 00:12:39 and usually a team scores in the last three minutes. I think the only time it didn't happen was the Eagles game, the third Super Bowl we won. Right. But in that game, Philly was driving down. I don't know. Even if they're up 21 points, one of the two teams,
Starting point is 00:13:00 and there's three and a half minutes left, they're still going for the garbage time. It's kind of hard to believe that. And there might be overtime. So I like that one. I'm going to parlay that with something else. Yeah, that's a nice parlayable prop there. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:16 Okay. A couple others. Will the game be decided by exactly six points plus 900? So here's what I get with that. It's reasonable the game would be decided by six points,
Starting point is 00:13:31 right? 30 to 24, 34 to 28, 27 to 21. But then if I get to overtime and the first team scores, I win that one too. Right? Touchdown, no extra point, I win the game scores, I win that one too. Right? Touchdown, no extra point.
Starting point is 00:13:47 I win the game. So I thought that 9-1 I thought was a little tasty. I like that. I do like that. Although I, you know, my best, I like betting. You say I think it's going to be close. I kind of don't. I think it's going to be between 7 and 12.
Starting point is 00:14:02 I bet both teams to win between 7 and 12. One's plus 475. One's plus 550. Those cover nice numbers. That's 31-20. Obviously, the 7's a big number. The 10's a big number. Patriots lost by 8 last year.
Starting point is 00:14:17 It's hard to imagine because they had the ball. Yeah, that's crazy. They had a chance to win late, but that fell right in that range last year, too. They don't have an exactly by eight points bet. No, they don't. What do you think about total interceptions for both teams? 1.5. Brady
Starting point is 00:14:31 threw two last week and really should have thrown a third if Dee Ford wasn't offsides. You were saying that. You said if he throws, he looks like he could throw three or four, but it doesn't ever seem to drop. What did he have last week? Two? He had two. One bad one. And then doesn't ever seem to drop. What did he have last week? Two? He had two.
Starting point is 00:14:47 One bad one. Yeah. And then Goff on the other end. Who knows? Goff got it out of his system against the Saints early on. Yeah. It's almost too lucky a bet now, the way balls are tipped
Starting point is 00:14:58 and everything, you know? The thing with Goff, can we all agree that he was a little deer in the headlights in the first quarter of that Saints game? I mean, it was super loud. They fell behind. They were always playing in basically the end zone, but he
Starting point is 00:15:12 certainly looked rattled. So now you get the Super Bowl. The other thing is, and this is something Brady always talks about. It took Brady a while to learn how to handle this, but the break of the halftime show where you get all hyped up for the game., but the, uh, the break of the halftime show where.
Starting point is 00:15:26 Yeah. It's forever. Yeah. You get all hyped up for the game. You're like, yeah, you're headbutting your offensive lineman. The game starts like, Hey, let's go. And you play for an hour and a half. You have so much adrenaline. And then you have this 30 minute halftime. Maroon 5 sucks it out of you. Yeah. The Maroon 5 and Travis Scott come out, and you kind of, you come down, and Brady said the biggest thing he's learned over the years
Starting point is 00:15:49 is how to channel his energies, because it's like a five-hour day, basically, when you include the pregame and everything. So Goff feels like, I don't know. Do you trust Goff to be good for five hours? I was thinking about that. I said, maybe we're not giving Goff enough credit. That was, that's the loudest place to play right there. Do you think the Super Bowl was a bigger... I was thinking about that. I said, maybe we're not giving Goff enough credit.
Starting point is 00:16:07 That's the loudest place to play right there. You're not going to get any worse, more adverse conditions. And being down 13-0, they had thrown the interception. Pretty remarkable that he came back from that. And I know the Saints fell apart a little, and they couldn't really run the ball. Yeah. But that's as big a moment... I don't want to say as big a moment as the Super Bowl,
Starting point is 00:16:27 because the Super Bowl is the grand stage. But I do feel like he can handle a lot After that Yeah I agree I mean if Hecker If that fake punt doesn't work I really do think there's a chance they lose 40-0 It's weird because I feel like the right team won
Starting point is 00:16:41 But I also feel like there's a world in which That fake punt, Hecker slips off his hand or the guy doesn't make the cut right. And the Saints have the ball now on like the Rams 30 and the game's over. You know? Yeah. It's 20 nothing in two minutes and that's it. And everybody's ripping Todd Gurley after.
Starting point is 00:17:02 Why didn't you do more? He's the big go. And we talk about it. By the way, they only scored three there. Yeah. Fake punt. Everyone makes like they turn the game around.
Starting point is 00:17:10 You know, the home team should still be able to hold a double digit lead. That's a fake punt. Yeah, that's very true. I was thinking of it more in the context of, if it doesn't work, if it hadn't worked,
Starting point is 00:17:19 the Saints are at least up 16, nothing. And I think that would have been insurmountable. Yeah. The key drive was that last drive right before the half when they just kind of got their shit together. I think it's
Starting point is 00:17:32 amazing the Saints won, and I really do feel like the Rams might have been better at the same time. We talked about this on your pod yesterday, the adjusted line for the Pats, plus three and a half is minus 215. So you bet $215 to win $100, basically. The plus three and a half is minus two 15. So you bet $250 to win a hundred. Basically the minus the plus three and a half is fun because if you think the
Starting point is 00:17:50 Pats are either going to win or lose by a field goal, um, you got it. I, my thing is the zero line, 69, 68, 69 yard or at the,
Starting point is 00:18:00 at the buzzer doesn't, doesn't, uh, doesn't kill you. Eat your heart off as much. If you have plus three and a half. Yeah. Not to give away what I'm doing at the ender doesn't feed your heart off as much if you have plus three and a half. Not to give away what I'm doing at the end of this pod, but I just feel like
Starting point is 00:18:09 if you think the Pats are going to win, the line's less than three, it's really hard to guess the Super Bowl winner and not cover it when the line's less by three. I'm positive that's never happened in the history of the Super Bowl. I don't have this number, but even when the blinds more than three, I mean,
Starting point is 00:18:28 the lesson to be learned in this is betting the Superbowl is if you like the favorite, bet the line, bet the favorite, giving the points because more often than not, way, way more often than not, they, uh, they win and they cover, um, at the same time. And obviously an underdog would, if they won, they would cover. So I want to say whoever you like to cover. Pat's Panthers.
Starting point is 00:18:48 Pat's didn't cover that. Right. 32, 29. I think they were favored by like four, four and a half, something like that. So there's one time.
Starting point is 00:18:58 I think anything, anytime they were over three, they were two and two and, and, and Owen four against the spread whenever they were favored of, they were two and two. And 0-4 against the spread. Whenever they were a favorite of more than three points. Wait, did the Eagles
Starting point is 00:19:11 score? Because now I'm thinking, I don't know if the Pats covered the Eagles game either. Didn't the Eagles score on the eight-minute, two-minute drive at the end there? No, I'm telling you. Yeah, because they were a favorite. I don't think they... 24-21. Yeah, but I were favorite. I don't think they... 24-21. That was a big game, right?
Starting point is 00:19:25 Yeah. But I think the Eagles scored with like three minutes left maybe. But my point is when it's under three, it becomes ridiculous. Yeah. We saw it happen in the Seattle-Dallas game. And that had to happen because the fat kicker got hurt and they had to go for two the whole time. And that's the only reason Dallas won, but only won by two points. Yeah. All right. A couple more. Now we're getting to the really good ones. I, I like you. I mean,
Starting point is 00:19:59 you should see me right now. I have papers all spread out. It's like a, like figuring out a crime. This is true detective season one right now. I have papers all spread out. It's like figuring out a crime. This is True Detective season one right now for me. Yeah, I told this story on your pod yesterday about the first time we met. We were at the Super Bowl of Bucks Raiders working for Jimmy's
Starting point is 00:20:16 show. And we'd only known each other for, I would say, two plus months. And we were in Daniel's office watching the Super Bowl. And that was the first time I really fully saw your madness. And it's gotten crazier, right? I think there were probably like 70 or 80 props back then. Now it's 300, 400 if you want to shop around.
Starting point is 00:20:35 I know. You sent me this list that I'm holding in my hand right now. It's 20 pages of prop bets. We couldn't have had that many in 2002. Tom Brady under 26 and a half completions. The argument for this is... No. Well, I'm not saying I'm betting it,
Starting point is 00:20:51 but the argument for it is the last eight, nine weeks of the season, he was in the low 20s basically every game. Got to the playoffs, threw a bunch of completions against the Chargers. And I think it was like 34, something like that. And then the Chiefs game ended up at 30. But that also includes the overtime.
Starting point is 00:21:09 So if you're thinking like they're going to try to do this power running game again, it would be hard for Brady to go over 27 unless the running game just isn't working. I'm staying away because I don't want to have... I think you're playing with fire. The guy had almost 1,000 yards combined in the last two Super Bowls. Went crazy, like you said, in the last two playoff games. You can't bet Brady under anything.
Starting point is 00:21:31 Anything. I mean, 299.5 is a massive, massive number for passing yards for a Super Bowl. And you're out of your mind if you toy with the under. I didn't say I was actually betting it. It just jumped out at me. 27 completions seems like a lot. For a team that... Because think of all this. toy with the under. I didn't say I was actually betting it. It just jumped out at me. 27 completions seems like a lot.
Starting point is 00:21:50 He's been through all the scenarios. They played like crap, really, against the Eagles and the Falcons. They went way over in both. Maybe not way over with the Eagles, but way over with the Falcons. What was the one before that? Seahawks, he was over. It's a different Pats team now, though.
Starting point is 00:22:04 This is a team that is going to try to run the ball and control the clock and use play action and chew up 35 seconds. It might be different. It's just the same Brady, though. It's just weird. It's just weird. He's like Tom Cruise. Bad karma. I was watching Mission Impossible fall
Starting point is 00:22:19 out on the plane back from Sundance, and I was thinking out, Cruise is like in his late 50s now, isn't he? Yeah? He made all the right moves in like 1982, and is still playing Ethan Hunt and looks the same. Hair is the same color. I'm sure they color it. Physically looks the same.
Starting point is 00:22:36 And it's like he just defies time. And that's Tom Brady when you see him on the going away party for flying to Atlanta, and he looks like he did 15 years ago. It's nuts. Real quick, I jotted this down because I know you're going to have fun with it, but I didn't know what to make the line.
Starting point is 00:22:52 Who retires first, Brady or Jimmy Kimmel? What's the line? I had Kimmel minus 130. Does Brady have anyone in his life like Babydoll who has a vested interest and just continue to have him do the show for years and years? I guess that trainer. That's right. Yeah, Babydoll's not done buying houses.
Starting point is 00:23:18 Jimmy's contract expires a year from now, right? Yeah. So conceivably, they could retire in the same month. That's what I was thinking. I got to make this kind of almost Red Dead even. I think Brady retires before Kimmel and Here's Why.
Starting point is 00:23:34 ABC has no replacement. That show makes too much money for ABC and it's too risky for them to just roll the franchise over to somebody else. If there was some person looming that we both were like, oh, well, when Jimmy retires, that guy's definitely going to get the show or that lady, I would feel that way.
Starting point is 00:23:57 Maybe it's Tom Brady. Maybe it is Tom Brady. But I feel like... So you think Brady goes fewer than three years? Yeah, that would take him to 44. He'll get another concussion. I mean, knock on wood, I hope he doesn't. But at some point, he's going to have some sort of injury,
Starting point is 00:24:15 something that will make his wife scream at him in Brazilian that he's, you've got to retire. You're not thinking about your family. Do that whole thing. That's how she sounds. I don't know. I hope that's worth sticking around for. Jimmy has Babydoll who's going to be like, you can't retire.
Starting point is 00:24:32 I just bought another country club membership. It's crazy that they have the same voice, Giselle and Baby. Baby's going to get the ABC president and be like, baby, look, yeah. You know, what's if, if Jimmy comes back, we're going to need a lot of money. We're going to need a lot of money.
Starting point is 00:24:52 That's going to be a really big check. So I'm thinking of a number. Mondays and Wednesdays. And that's it. Where do we sign? Repeats 80% of the time. Yeah. I say Brady retires first.
Starting point is 00:25:11 Plus, Jimmy can't get injured. What is he going to get? Get a concussion hosting a late night show? Like Brady can't actually get hurt. I know, but you would have thought this would happen to Brady three, four years ago,
Starting point is 00:25:21 but nothing. I honestly can't believe it. I can't believe he's 41 and he's doing what he's doing. And I don't want to jinx him and knock on wood again. All right, here's the first bet I'm doing. I have $5.11 million to play with Sal in my million-dollar thing nest egg. I mentioned this on your pod yesterday. I've become even more enamored with it.
Starting point is 00:25:46 Sonny Michel, who has one catch in the last eight weeks, who every time he's in, you know the Patriots are running the ball and not throwing a screen pass or a wheel route. The Super Bowl is when you change your tendencies, when you operate under the assumption that the other team thinks this guy's in, well, that means they won't do this, and then you try to flip it on them. I think they throw one pass to him.
Starting point is 00:26:08 And what's great is the over 0.5 total receptions is now plus 110, Sal. Wow. So I am going to put $200,000 on Sony plus 110 that he will get Kyle you writing these down? That he will have one catch in this game. Because he's going to go in
Starting point is 00:26:32 and the Rams are going to be like alright we talked about this at practice when he's in they don't throw to him and they're going to throw to him. How many does he actually have? How many receptions? He's had less than 12 all season. And in the last 8 weeks he's had one and he has season and he's in the last eight weeks, he's had
Starting point is 00:26:46 one and he has not had one in the playoffs and they don't even, it's weird. Cause when, when they drafted him, it was a whole thing about how he was this three down back potentially and how you can throw to him. And he was so great at Georgia with the running and the receiving, but they've just, he lost Brady's confidence a little in the first couple of games. And then that was it. So perfect time to get it back. Because they're going to have trouble running the ball in this game with the Rams D-line. All right, I like that.
Starting point is 00:27:13 And I'll tell you why I like it. I like it because I like my bet, which is Brady over 25.5. And I think now you have to get it at 26.5 completion. So I think if he has 31, 32, as I'm predicting, little Sony can get a half a reception. He can get a half of those. The Brady completion over has been one of the safest Super Bowl props we've ever had. Yes.
Starting point is 00:27:34 All right. It's pretty good. So that's one. It's pretty good. Here's another safe one. Will Gronk get arrested for public urination in a Waffle House Saturday night, 5 to 2 o'clock? I kind of like that. So it has to be Saturday night?
Starting point is 00:27:47 Yeah, well, the night before the Super Bowl, there's always something weird that happens. I'm going to take that one. We're taking a break to talk about To Kill a Mockingbird. You might have heard Aaron Sorkin was on this podcast, Academy Award-winning screenwriter and playwright. He discussed his long career,
Starting point is 00:28:06 all the great things he did, including the West Wing, the newsroom, social network. Well, he has a new play on Broadway. It's an adaptation of Harper Lee's Pulitzer Prize winning To Kill a Mockingbird, which was recently voted America's best loved novel of all time.
Starting point is 00:28:21 It has also become one of the most popular and toughest tickets to get on Broadway. It set the record as the highest grossing American play in Broadway history. It doesn't feature the Knicks, which is a bonus. It's been selected as a critics pick by the New York Times and it's been called one of the greatest plays in history by NPR.
Starting point is 00:28:38 Two-time Emmy Award winner Jeff Daniels live on stage as Atticus Finch Variety said one of the greatest stage successes of this or any Broadway season is not played to a single empty seat. And while it's sold out for the next several months,
Starting point is 00:28:52 tickets would make a fantastic Valentine's Day gift when purchased for available performances this summer or fall. Tickets are available directly through telecharge.com or the show's website
Starting point is 00:29:03 to kill a mockingbird, broadway.com. Check that out. I'm putting $200,000 on this one too. Todd Gurley, over 32 and a half yards receiving even odds. 200 to 200. Yeah, you liked that. You were talking about that. Yeah, talked about that yesterday.
Starting point is 00:29:24 Here's the explanation for people who did not hear it on your pod. The Patriots have had a nightmare time covering running backs coming out of the backfield on screens, delayed screens, wheel routes, all that stuff. And for whatever reason,
Starting point is 00:29:39 two weeks ago, the Chiefs didn't realize this until the second half. And as soon as they realized this, it was a disaster for the Patriots. I'm operating under the premise that Gurley is going to be healthier and way more competent than he was two weeks ago. And if you think about that Saints game, they actually did try to go to him early
Starting point is 00:29:59 and he was just like a spaz. Like they threw him two passes. He screwed both of them up. This guy was the best runner and receiver we had in the league. So. Right. 32 and a half is nothing.
Starting point is 00:30:10 That's. Kyle, how many times do we give up a 20 yard screen pass or wheel route to a running back this year? Like 230? I'd say it's more fingers than I have though
Starting point is 00:30:19 at least. At least once a game. Yeah. So he gets one 21 yarder and now it's like one more screen pass for 8 and then another flare pass for 5 and I've got to 33 so I'm putting $200,000
Starting point is 00:30:32 in that why don't you join me on that one Sal well here's how I see it you're not going to like this but he goes the whole game without a reception except for a minute 58 left in the game the Rams are up 2 at the 35 yard line, little swing past the girl.
Starting point is 00:30:49 He breaks a tackle, gets down to the six and falls down, but daylight ahead sits on his ass and bounce. There you go. I know. I'm sorry. I'm sorry to do that to you, but guys are operating a different skill set here.
Starting point is 00:31:08 We talked about this on your pod yesterday. I think if you think Gurley is going to be back in a big way, there's a lot of value in that. And most of the value is in the receiving stuff because C.J. Anderson, his over-under for receiving yards was like four and a half, you know, he's like 280 pounds. He's not, they're not going to be flaring him out. They don't have, I did see a stat with that or some weird thing.
Starting point is 00:31:34 Four to one odds. The game is delayed when CJ Anderson gets stuck in the Rams tunnel coming out the second half. Good to see it happening. Well, somebody is good. Some running back is going to catch balls out of their backfield. And they only have two running backs. So I think it has to be Gurley.
Starting point is 00:31:54 Here's the other one. I mentioned this on the podcast. All right, I'll jump on that with you. Why not? I think it'll probably take like four receptions to get there, but I'll jump on it. Well, the fear is that he's really hurt. And it might just be, if you do that bet,
Starting point is 00:32:04 the fear would be that he's really hurt. But the thing is, if they're just going to try to run the ball, it's not going to work against the Pats. They're going to have to throw the ball to the running backs. All right, here's the third run I'm doing. Johnny Hecker will not throw a pass. Minus 600. It's expensive.
Starting point is 00:32:22 Can I parlay this with something? I'll look for that I don't know if you can But yeah, that's a winner I can't parlay that with anything? That's gotta be a winner I think you can I'll find a guy
Starting point is 00:32:36 No, no, I'm saying on the podcast Yeah Right now Yeah, sure, I don't know It's just a podcast What do you mean Yeah do it Or you just want me
Starting point is 00:32:50 To pay the minus 600 I think it's a winner For sure I don't What are the odds They First of all Every time they punt
Starting point is 00:32:59 Belichick for two straight weeks Telling his guys Like watch out For the fake punt There's no way They're gonna try a fake punt. Well, just numbers-wise. So what's the comeback on that?
Starting point is 00:33:08 400? The other way? Plus 400? Yeah. I didn't even say. Yeah, plus 400. So you're saying every one in five games he's going to do it. He's not going to do it after he just did it.
Starting point is 00:33:20 He's not going to do it against the Patriots. They have to have another trick play. Yeah. Also, it's, oh, I guess it's will he attempt a pass? I wish it was complete a pass, but will he attempt it? But I'm just going to say this.
Starting point is 00:33:35 If the Patriots give up a pass to Johnny Hecker on a fourth down, I'm going to flip the fuck out because this just happened. So I'm betting this. I am putting $600,000 to win $100,000 on this alright $600,000
Starting point is 00:33:54 do you think Belichick and it's amazing it hasn't come out by now why Malcolm Butler was benched really do you think he doesn't take chances like that anymore? I wonder. I don't even know what the reason is. We can only speculate.
Starting point is 00:34:12 Like, does he bench somebody randomly and then put Patriots fans in a pit of despair for the entire winter, wondering what happened? Yeah, yeah, something like that. Like, who is the guy that just gets randomly sat? It's probably, my candidate would be Chris Hogan because I didn't think he was very good in that last game. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:34:30 All right. Put the Hogan under props. Next one. James White. This is Kyle's favorite, so I'm doing it for the Neff because he's been a great employee and a great family member. My kids love him. He is one of the best family members you have. He really is. He's in the
Starting point is 00:34:47 top three. Top 10 or 15. Yeah, he's top three. You know, both of us love the, if you think a team's going to win, then bet on somebody on that team to also score the touchdown parlayed with the win bet. It's one of our favorites. So I looked at the Pats and I was really trying to figure out
Starting point is 00:35:03 who is the most logical guy that scores the TD. And I was leaning toward Gronk, and then Kyle reminded me that James White does what he does in Super Bowls. Plus, they're going to have trouble running the ball, I think, consistently. And they're going to have to use little screen passes and swing passes and stuff. It's a James White kind of game.
Starting point is 00:35:23 Plus 250, James White scores, and the Patriots win. I'm going to put 200 on that, Sal. 200K. All right. I like that. White plus a TD. I love everything James White. White plus a TD.
Starting point is 00:35:37 200 to win five. There's another bet that I won't mention because I know it's leading to know it's leading to the Gary Russell bet and I don't want to spoil it, but I'm going to mention it after you do that. Okay. And then that's it. I'm done. All right. Give us a few here.
Starting point is 00:35:57 Yeah. Give us what you got. I have a over under 13 and a half million views for the viral video Two Girls, One Cooper Cup which is going to be released Saturday night no I don't even know if that's true
Starting point is 00:36:15 he should do that sponsored by Chevrolet you have Jon Hamm read the Mercedes in the background. I love that. All right. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:36:30 Let's take a break. Crown Royal is doing something pretty cool this football season. They launched a responsible drinking campaign called the Water Break. It's all about encouraging people to hydrate between drinks for a better experience
Starting point is 00:36:39 while they're at the game, watching at home or in a bar. Have a great time. Enjoy some Crown. Don't be that person that ruins it for everybody. We've all seen that guy who drank too much watching the game.
Starting point is 00:36:54 Make the right call. Take a water break. Sal, who made the right call this week? I hadn't thought about it a lot, but it just hit me. Roger Goodell made the right call. He took a lot of crap for not addressing the worst call, worst took a lot of crap for not addressing the worst call, worst non-call of all time. Roby Coleman's
Starting point is 00:37:10 just physical assault at the end of the game. They didn't call it. Saints could have clocked it, kicked a field goal. That would have been that. And Goodell finally did step up and address the Saints and said he apologized and they made the wrong
Starting point is 00:37:25 call. He went from locker to locker, did not miss a player, got them all and he did the right thing. So good job, Roger Goodell. Once again. Yeah. I thought that was awesome by him. They say he's not accountable, but then you hear those stories about just these heartfelt conversations he had with the Saints and their owners when he flew to New Orleans and he just went fan by fan, shaking hands.
Starting point is 00:37:49 Right. Yeah, he's really something. Collecting beads. It was like Mardi Gras all over again, but he's making amends. I wrote a Goodell must-go mailbag, and it was actually the week before I got suspended, or two weeks before I got suspended,
Starting point is 00:38:02 but it was September 2014, and it was honestly like six scandals ago. And that was like, when I was like, we've reached the tipping point, this guy has to go. We've been like six terrible things have happened since then. My right call goes to nephew Kyle on Saturday night. We were at a party for John Hamm's movie. And it was awesome. There were Liam lollipops. Your friend Daniel
Starting point is 00:38:28 was there. The waitresses liked us. They kept bringing us drinks, giving us food, lots of celebrities. And Nephew was really having a great time. Really, really enjoying himself. And then was enjoying himself a little too much. And around...
Starting point is 00:38:45 I put a couple of videos on the Instagram of him dancing. Thanks for that. You look around in the background, it's just a bunch of Hollywood people just having casual conversations. He's like screaming the lyrics to Drake. Kanye West, touch this guy.
Starting point is 00:39:00 So then finally, it's a free party, nothing there. Kyle somehow spends $80. We're still not sure how. He's tipping everybody. $5 bills. Confessed after that he just felt like he wanted to fit in. I'm like, let Daniel and I tip everybody. That's why
Starting point is 00:39:15 the waitress keeps coming over. Daniel's throwing 20s at busboys. So then Kyle gives somebody $40 to let Bobby in one of the
Starting point is 00:39:27 ringer people and now they're in the VIP and then it's time for Kyle to go and he knows it and he makes the right call
Starting point is 00:39:36 he goes back to the place we're staying so we think we're never gonna see him again we're out we're out we're out for a couple hours
Starting point is 00:39:43 we have a whole bunch of people including your friend Rob Stone and all of his Colgate friends and my friend Camp. I'm friends with a lot of those guys. We all go back to our house. It's now like one o'clock. Jabelle Hill is with us with her fiance. We're like,
Starting point is 00:39:57 we have beer at my house. We'll go back. We're all in the kitchen. We're all drinking. The door opens and it's nephew Kyle. He's holding a giant pizza. He has just been on the roof in the jacuzzi eating a pizza for an hour and comes down and doesn't realize there's 15 people there and is delighted and then has a second wind and hangs out with everybody all night.
Starting point is 00:40:19 You know why? Because he made the right call, Sal. He made the right call. He knew to take himself out of the game, regroup, eat some pizza, get in a jacuzzi, and then come back down and socialize. My great call goes to Nathan Kyle. Isn't that great? Thanks. So Crown Royal reminds everyone this football season to take a water break and hydrate responsibly, even if you're in a jacuzzi with a pizza.
Starting point is 00:40:41 I didn't know Domino's had lamb lollipops as a topping. That's pretty good. That's exciting news. All right. What other props do you have? I have a few more. How about this? Pats to score.
Starting point is 00:40:54 The big is high, but the Pats to score a fourth quarter touchdown. This has happened in six of the last seven and three in a row. Wow. I like it. What are the odds? Minus two 25. If we're looking for something to parlay, it's a last quarter touchdown.
Starting point is 00:41:14 Yeah. Maybe we could do that. So could we do a hacker? We do hacker minus 600 with Pat's last quarter touchdown. I think I could find a place to get that in. Yeah. We'll get, what do you think that is as a parlay though?
Starting point is 00:41:25 Minus 600 or minus 225? 600 and 225. Yeah. This is where Sal is. That is like 150. Let me see. 150. Why does that?
Starting point is 00:41:38 I should know this by heart. I know. How would you know that by heart? Minus 600. Minus. Maniac. 25. 146. I'm sorry. I said 150. I feel terrible. Minus 146. How would you know that by heart? Maniac. 25.
Starting point is 00:41:46 146. I'm sorry. I said 150. I feel terrible. Minus 146. All right. So I'm going to dump. I'm dumping my Hecker bet. I'm doing that bet instead.
Starting point is 00:41:54 And I'll put 292,000 to win 200. Okay. No Hecker pass can parlayed with Pat's fourth quarter TD. Yeah. There you go. Here's the thing. You might want to add this. Whose age
Starting point is 00:42:13 will be closer to the total? Belichick or McVay? Belichick 66, about McVay 33. I didn't understand that bet. You don't understand it? It's too much math. What are you talking about? Why. I didn't understand that, but... You don't understand it? It's too much math. What are you talking about? Why?
Starting point is 00:42:28 I don't know. If I go, then the game ends. I have to add. I have to go backwards. I have to subtract. You just know you have the old coach, so you root for points if you're going over. Yeah, that's true.
Starting point is 00:42:39 I don't know if this is going to be a lot of points in this game. One more crossover. Let me say one more crossover. Zion points rebounds versus points scored. He's playing St. John's on Sunday. Versus points scored in the first half of the Super Bowl. Wow.
Starting point is 00:43:01 Oh, the points in the first half are plus five and a half. I think I like the points in the first half. Zion averages 22 and 9 boards, so he's right around 31. I think he'll do that against St. John's, but I could see 14, 14, 17, 14 first half. Wait a second, though. Too much math? No, no, no, no, no.
Starting point is 00:43:19 Didn't we both agree that the second half is going to have more scoring than the first half? Yeah. The Pats have one of those defenses that for two and a half quarters, they figured out everything you're going to do, and then as the game goes along, it starts to fall apart. All right, so you're going Zion.
Starting point is 00:43:34 So if I take Zion, what do I get? I get plus five and a half? No, you're laying five and a half because he averages 31 between points and rebounds. Oh, but he's going to be at national TV for that game. Yeah. The problem is if they win like
Starting point is 00:43:49 90 to 42 or something and he only plays like 20 minutes. Yeah, they will. Yeah, I'm staying away. I like that bet though. Let me find, let me see if there's any more. Tom Brady over on the rushing yards. What do you think it is? Did you see this already? It's two and a half, isn't it?
Starting point is 00:44:06 I saw one and a half. Oh, one and a half. That still seems like a lot. And the under is minus 150. I really hope he doesn't go over on that one. The average is 2.4 yards per game. 2.2 yards per game, 1.4 carries. What's the over under for times Tony Romo goes,
Starting point is 00:44:24 you got to love this Jim they should have a decibel count for him there's also odds on if they're going to open the roof now they're talking they might open the roof wouldn't that be a disaster that's going to delay the game like 40 minutes
Starting point is 00:44:40 by the way the ringers Brian Curtis wrote about the Romo the whole Romo phenomenon today said he's going to easily double his current contract of 4 million
Starting point is 00:44:50 oh his contract 4 million a year ok because there's a prop out there and I kind of have I might have a heads up I don't want to say anything over under
Starting point is 00:44:58 7 and a half plays that he calls just take the under that's all I'm saying no reason to show off plays that he calls. Just take the under. That's all I'm saying. No reason to show off. You made it to the Super Bowl. Is it time for Gary Russell?
Starting point is 00:45:14 You ready for it? All right. Hold on. Let me get a brief setup for the newer BS listeners and the younger listeners out there. We're actually, this is the 10th anniversary of the Gary Russell prop.
Starting point is 00:45:23 Mm-hmm. Right? This is it. Wasn't it Steelers Cardinals? Yeah. Wow. 10th anniversary of this year of 30 for 30, my book and the Gary Russell prop. What a year.
Starting point is 00:45:34 I love it. So year two of you being on the BS report and we're doing a Super Bowl thing. And you say you have this huge bet you want to do, and I'm all excited. It's your prop bet of the year, and the bet was Gary Russell won't score a touchdown. That's right. And what were the odds?
Starting point is 00:45:56 The odds were pretty not favorable. It was minus 175 for a guy that no one really had heard of. Gary Russell was like CJ Anderson. If CJ Anderson didn't do anything in his last, this last month, he kept his job at Walmart. Yeah. He was like a backup halfback,
Starting point is 00:46:14 sometimes fullback. Right. First quarter of the game, Gary Russell scores a touchdown and we're at Jimmy's old house. You guys have all three times, by the way, inside the tent. Right. We're at Jimmy's old house. There's the ball three times, by the way, inside the tent.
Starting point is 00:46:28 We're at Jimmy's old house. There's a hundred people there. And as soon as it happens, a bunch of people are looking at you and it became, it was like, wow, people are listening to the podcast. This is great. So you went down in flames on that bet. You didn't even get to enjoy it for like two quarters. Well, but there's a better story to it at At another Super Bowl party, and this is true, we got an email the following Monday or Tuesday, whatever.
Starting point is 00:46:51 There was a guy who saw that. Gary Russell scores. He laughs. The only other person that laughs is a girl across the room. They end up getting to talking. They're a fan of our podcast. They're talking. They get together.
Starting point is 00:47:05 They're engaged, and they get married. Now this is 10 years ago. Yeah. I don't know what kind of odds we have to put on them still being together. I feel like we need to contribute to the divorce slush fund, but, um, and now they're divorced. Please write in if you're still married or if you're not,
Starting point is 00:47:18 or we'd love to hear from you. And now they're divorced. And in a bitter custody battle. Now they're probably, they have to be still married. This podcast brings people together. It's a happy podcast. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:29 All right. They should email us, though, at themailbagattheringer.com and tell us that they're still together. I'd love to know. Yeah, let's hear from them or anybody who knows them. Yeah. But you want to go this year? This year, I have a winner. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:40 It's been a while. Now, I've had, like, Henry Hynoski. I try to pick some, like, obscure names here and there. Who was the tight end for the Patriots? I don't know. I don't want to say he was Samoan, but he ended up, like, the third-string tight end, like, four or five years against Seattle. I don't remember. All right.
Starting point is 00:47:59 I had him. He let me down. I've been let down a lot of times before. This time, I'm winning. Yeah. Because at 4-1 odds, and you can get as high as 12-1 odds if you shop this around. Patriots fullback James Devlin will score a touchdown. Wow.
Starting point is 00:48:18 Now, I could have gone over 1.5 yards. That's boring. But he has half as many touchdowns as he has rushing yards. The pride of Brown. He benches 500. He squats 670. And he scores this Sunday in the Super Bowl or the Pro Football Championship. I don't know what we're allowed to say.
Starting point is 00:48:38 James Devlin. Between four and 12 to one odds that he will score a touchdown. So I had this marked. Because, first of all, I love it. Good. On the sheet you sent me, it was James Devlin scores and the Patriots win was plus 45 to 1.
Starting point is 00:48:56 Yeah, yeah, yeah. So why wouldn't you do that as the bet? Because you think the Rams are going to win the Super Bowl? I guess that would be safe. I don't want to, you know. I just picked it. I focused on it. You know, benches 500, squat 670.
Starting point is 00:49:11 It's a winner. It's a great one. It's a winner, Simmons. You know it. That and two girls, one Cooper Cup. Two winners. I am doing a variation of that. I am betting on variation of that.
Starting point is 00:49:29 I am betting on James Devlin to score a touchdown and the Pats to win a hundred K 45 to one odds. Wow. What did you start with? You have 5.1 million. What'd you start with? Yeah. And I'm, I'm saving some for,
Starting point is 00:49:39 uh, I'm saving some for my two big bets at 5.1 million to start with million dollar picks. Okay. Um, those two bets. I had $5.11 million to start with. Million dollar picks. Okay. And those two bets happen on a podcast tomorrow? No, they're happening right now. I'm going to tell them to you. Oh, all right. I'm excited.
Starting point is 00:49:53 I don't have a drum, but I would like to hear it. I'm going to bet. Because I might as well blow it out, right, Kyle? Yeah. You did great all year. You owe this to yourself. I've been good, except for one of the playoff rounds
Starting point is 00:50:07 I had some trouble. Pats minus two and a half. I'm taking that. I can't believe it's not three. I really feel like it's going to get to three. I'm not worried about the nobody believes in us potential of this because the Pats have somehow convinced themselves that nobody believes in us potential of this
Starting point is 00:50:25 because the Pats have somehow convinced themselves that nobody believes in them, even though they're favored. I do feel like it is insulting that they're not three-and-a-half-point favorites when we don't know if Gurley's healthy. And it makes me wonder, if Gurley was healthy, what would this line be? Something's weird with that. And I just think, I just like this matchup for the Pats. I think ever since Cup went out, it's been harder for the Rams to move the ball. Gurley not being a hundred percent,
Starting point is 00:50:54 that whole thing is just kind of strange. They really need like Gurley at a hundred percent. Whether he's 80, 70 or whatever, like I just don't think they're going to beat the Pats in a Super Bowl unless he's 100%. And I also think the Pats, they can run the ball, eventually wear down the Rams. I think they'll have trouble early, but as it goes along. And they just kind of found an identity over these last few weeks as this old-school power-running game that can control the clock,
Starting point is 00:51:24 has a really smart quarterback. They can protect. They can block like fucking crazy. This is the best. It's the healthiest they've ever been in the playoffs in this whole Brady era. It's unbelievable. Like, does anybody hurt, Kyle? No, even the inactives for last, the Chiefs game was like, this is amazing.
Starting point is 00:51:41 It's bonkers. I couldn't believe it. And Belichick builds these big rosters and he's so concerned with depth. And this is really one of the only times they really have a healthy team. Even Gronk is healthy. And I just think,
Starting point is 00:51:56 I think that Chiefs game was the game. They easily could have lost. You could make a case the Chiefs have the best team and they screwed that game up. And getting the break with the Chiefs have the best team, and they screwed that game up, and get in the break with the Saints, and then the juju of all the Saints fans rooting against the Rams. Pats have some people in our corner this time.
Starting point is 00:52:14 Yeah. We have Saints fans. We have the Patriots fans. And that's it. But that's more people in our corner than we've had before. We have the fan base of another team in our corner. So that's great. Plus all the people from St. Louis rooting for us.
Starting point is 00:52:34 Right. So three cities in our corner right now. And probably half of LA too. Half of LA. I just think we talk about this all the time, I just think the line should be three and a half. I feel like I'm getting a free point. And if the Rams beat them, so be it.
Starting point is 00:52:54 There's some smaller things, like Talib has been so good shutting down the Pats in the past, but we don't really have a receiver for him to cover this time around. They put him on Gronk before in the Denver playoff game, but if they do that, the Pats are just past, but we don't really have a receiver for him to cover this time around. They put him on Gronk before in the Denver playoff game, but if they do that, the Pats are just going to run at him.
Starting point is 00:53:10 I just like some of the matchup stuff. I also think the Rams, Danny Kelly broke this down on Twitter for us. He wrote down their favorite play with the receivers on the right and how they run the same formation with the three wide receivers over and over again.
Starting point is 00:53:25 Just all these different variations from it. And in my opinion, Belichick has always done well if it's one of those teams, offensively or defensively, where it's like, we're just going to do this one thing and you're not going to be able to shut it down. He always figures out how to shut it down. So unless they're really going to fuck around and bring out some formations we haven't seen,
Starting point is 00:53:48 if they're just going to do that, I feel like he's going to have an advantage. And I think this coaching staff's been really good the last couple of weeks. So I like the matchup. Here's the disadvantage, if I may jump in. I like him too. And I have not had good luck lately. And I feel like I'm chasing against the Rams, but I really did think about it in terms of maybe I could take the Rams here
Starting point is 00:54:10 because I think the Rams are better than the Eagles were last year. I think golf is better than Foles. Maybe he doesn't have the magic attached. I think McVay is better than Peterson. And when they're running the ball, although the Eagles couldn't have done a better job running the ball last year in the Super Bowl. But that said, when was the last time the Patriots played a bad game?
Starting point is 00:54:29 Was it two months ago? Was it the Titans game? Yeah, there was a Titans game. Eight weeks ago now? I don't know what that is now. They're just in it. And it just makes sense to take them because they can play like crap like they did against the Falcons down 28-3 in this game. And they're right there for the last drive.
Starting point is 00:54:46 And all you have to do is have them win by two and a half. They can play like crap like they did against the Eagles, and you're going to have them. You're not going to be out of this game. That's worst-case scenario. You're going to be down, and they're going to have the ball on the last drive. I really like the Patriots here. I don't even think it's going to be that close.
Starting point is 00:55:01 I think it's going to be 30-14, and then maybe the Rams score. I think it's like a 30-21 final. God, I hope you're right. I like your team and I'm sorry because I've had a lot of bad luck. I bet the saints big, big money. And I got my computer stolen outside the Elton John concert last night. So you probably convinced me to take any other team than the Patriots. Uh, it'd be a smart move by you. Wait a second. What happened to your computer? I got stolen. I went to Elton John. I parked in one of those
Starting point is 00:55:28 dumb $10 lots outside. I had my computer in the backseat on the floor and someone smashed the window and grabbed it. And my wife and I got back to the car
Starting point is 00:55:37 and I was like, oh, this shit still goes on, I guess. Yep. And that's that. Gone. You know what was the worst part of that story?
Starting point is 00:55:44 That you went to an Elton John concert. I can tell you Elton John's the only one who didn't steal my computer. God, his voice was gone 20 years ago. He's a legend. His voice is gone? He has no voice left? No.
Starting point is 00:55:57 His voice isn't good anymore? How does he sing his songs? He's like, he can't hit any of the notes anymore. No. Stop it. He's right there. What are you talking about? He's like, he can't hit any of the notes anymore. No, stop it. He's right there. What are you talking about? He's in his seventies. It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:56:12 He broke into my car. That's the point. What was on your computer? I hope like stuff wasn't on there. Don't go breaking my windshield. Damn it. What a disaster. Oh, you must have been so mad. Oh, I was pissed.
Starting point is 00:56:25 I was up till three in the morning changing passwords. We were at the police station in downtown LA, which isn't pretty. I was so pissed. Anyway, I'm on your Patriots. Yeah, this worries me because you've had a tumultuous 2019. We don't have to go into all the details. We lost Super Dave. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:45 There's so much bad stuff. Some other things. Yeah, it has been kind of a... Here's the counter. This is what makes me feel better. Corolla is definitely going to bet the Rams, right? I think so. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:00 So that's good. I'm convinced I'm going to bet the Rams. So Corolla will nullify you. There's a prop out there that minus 260 on it. When we do the podcast Sunday night, you utter the words, I told you we weren't's good. So Corolla will nullify you. There is a prop out there that minus 260 on it. When we do the podcast Sunday night, you utter the words, I told you we weren't that good. Stop it. That's not fair.
Starting point is 00:57:13 Are we going to hear that? Hey, look, I picked the Eagles last year, if you remember. That's true. I didn't understand the line, and I really felt like it wasn't a great matchup for the Patriots. And this time around, I picked the Pats against the Chargers. I picked them last week. And I don't think they haven't played the right team that would be the biggest problem for them.
Starting point is 00:57:38 I think the Saints would have been a problem. Yeah. Because the whole Kamara thing, I have no idea. What would we have done against Kamara thing I have no idea what would we have done against Kamara Kyle's just shaking his head sadly I like that he can be my fantasy guy and that's it he would have destroyed us
Starting point is 00:57:54 oh my god we have nobody on our team who could cover him I don't know what we would have done oh my god that would have been awful so now we have 280 pound CJ Anderson I don't know what we would have done. What do you mean, Kyle Van Noy? Oh, my God. That would have been awful. So now we have 280-pound C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley, who's going to be at an exercise bike hopefully half the game. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:58:11 I like it. So I'm doing $2.5 million on Pat's minus 2.5. Wow. 2.5 minus 2.5. It's a $2.5 million thing. I left a little if I get destroyed during the Super Bowl. That's all. You can make a second half bet. What is the lock it in guys? What are they like? Have they announced it?
Starting point is 00:58:35 They're all over the ramps. I think I'm the only one who has the Patriots. But they read into the line too much. I think they read way into it instead of just staring at the game. They're kind of the same way. Like, wow, this hasn't gotten to three. Someone's trying to pull the wool over the public's eyes. Do we really think Tom Brady's going to lose back-to-back Super Bowls to Nick Foles and Jared Goff?
Starting point is 00:58:56 Yeah. That doesn't make sense. It doesn't seem likely. God, I can't believe you went to an Elton John concert. What are you talking about? I should have made that my crown royal great call of the week. Oh my God. Elton John's the greatest.
Starting point is 00:59:12 I love Elton John. He's done touring after this. He's been saying that for a hundred years. He's 75. He's going to get a residency now and he's done touring. Jesus. Well, I'm going to play Elton during the podcast if we go down in flames with the Super Bowl. I'll play
Starting point is 00:59:29 Mona Lisa and Matt Hatters or something. Do it. Or take me to the pilot. Take me to the pilot so I can leave the country and escape these gambling debts. Hey, if you have Sal's computer out there, give it back. That's bullshit. Yeah, come on. He's a good guy. He's not funny anymore. That's ridiculous. Anything else you got to plug? No, that's there. Give it back. That's bullshit. Yeah, come on. He's a good guy. He's not funny anymore.
Starting point is 00:59:45 That's ridiculous. Anything else you got to plug? No, that's it. Lock it in. It's our 100th show on Friday, if you happen to be around. Wow. And that's 430 to 530 Eastern on FS1. Exciting.
Starting point is 00:59:59 Sal, always a pleasure. I will talk to you on Sunday night, win or lose. Good luck. Let's pull in. One more win. Six wins. You on Sunday night, win or lose. Good luck. Let's pull in. One more win. Six wins. You can do this. We got this.
Starting point is 01:00:09 Good job by you. Good job by you. All right. So before we go to recap the bets, 200K on Sonny Michel plus 110 that he will have. One. Just one catch. Another 200K on Todd Gurley over 32 and a half receiving yards. That was a good one.
Starting point is 01:00:46 Little parlay, 292K to win 200 on no Johnny Hecker pass parlayed with a Pat's fourth quarter TD. That was exciting. And then 100K on James Devlin, 45 to 1, that he will score a touchdown and the Pats will win. And then we're also doing 200K on James White, plus 250. He will score a touchdown. The Pats will win. And then finally, 2.5 million on the Patriots, minus two and a half.
Starting point is 01:01:18 Hope you enjoy the Super Bowl. Root for the Pats. Root for greatness. That's what you should do. You should root for greatness. That's what you should do. You should root for greatness. You might never see this again. A quarterback and a coach winning six Super Bowls together? Kyle.
Starting point is 01:01:33 Come on. Nephew Kyle, my son and I will be watching. We will do a podcast on Sunday night. Thanks to ZipRecruiter. Don't forget to go to ZipRecruiter.com. Slash BS. And that's it. See you on Sunday. On the wayside, I'm a person never lost And I don't have to ever forget

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