The Bill Simmons Podcast - Surprise NFL Playoff Teams, the Post-Lance Niners, Wilson’s Future, and the Least Defensible Trades Ever With Michael Lombardi

Episode Date: August 28, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons quickly hits on some sports stories, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's FIBA presence, and Mookie Betts's MVP case (1:16) before he is joined by Michael Lombardi to discuss the 49ers trading Trey Lance to the Cowboys, and just how big of a "what-if" trading up for Lance was for the Niners in the first place (7:44). Then, they discuss long shot NFL playoff teams (32:09), before talking about Michael's new book, 'Football Done Right: Setting the Record Straight on the Coaches, Players, and History of the NFL,' available September 5th (1:15:39). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Michael Lombardi Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, football, football, football. What's next? This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home

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per 355 mil can so why not grab some Miller Lites today your game time tastes like Miller Time must be legal drinking age we're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. New rewatchables coming on Monday night. Me and Chris Ryan and a very special guest.

And I'll tell you the movie. You'll probably figure it out anyway, because you know it's coming out. But we're doing the equalizer, the first one. So very fun movie to discuss, especially with our special guest. So that's happening. Hope you checked out our new election podcast. It's called Somebody's Gotta Win with Tara Palmieri. We also have a podcast we're going to be announcing on Tuesday. I think that is going to be a big deal.

I'm just telling you, hold on to your seats on Tuesday for this podcast that's going to be announced. Mike Lombardi is going to come on to talk lots of football stuff. We're going to talk about Trey Lance and the craziest trades that didn't work out in recent football history, but a perspective you haven't heard yet. And then we're going to talk about the teams with plus odds to make the playoffs that might actually make the playoffs. We're going to deep dive that. And then we're going to talk about the teams with plus odds to make the playoffs that might actually make the playoffs. We're going to deep dive that. And then we're going to talk about Lombardi's book, which is excellent. And it's a football podcast. So we're not going to talk about the World Cup.

We're not going to talk about France is already out. We're not going to talk about Canada, who's looking like the sleeping giant in this whole thing. It looks like Shea Gilgis-Alexander is going to be the best player in this tournament. Whether that means SGA can bring Canada to actually beat the US and everybody else and win the title, we'll see. But this is a pretty interesting moment for him because he's first team on NBA,

but he's playing on OKC. They made the play-in game. I'm not sure everyone realizes how good he is. They might realize as they're watching the World Cup and he's going toe-to-toe with the Americans, but just in general, watching how great he's been in the Cup so far, I do feel like OKC is kind of having a moment right now where they got to

realize this can't be like a five, seven year process. We have one of the best guards in the world now. And we might be ready to challenge a little sooner than maybe people give us credit for. I'll be interested to see how they approach that moment. Are they going to be careful about it? Are they going to dive into it? What are they going to do? But anyway, we'll see how he does in the World Cup. I love this World Cup. I love watching the games. I love the speed of it. I loved watching Lafayette come behind against France today. Really fun. I think all the games here are on ESPN Plus, so pretty easy, even if you missed it, to just go back and check those out. So yeah, World Cup and then the Mookie Betts thing is the other thing that's on the top of my

mind before we get to Lombardi. One of the most traumatic transactions of my lifetime, I think it's actually the worst Boston sports trade of my lifetime. And you've heard me talk about it on this podcast many times. I think what's amazing about it is that they actually psyched themselves out with the long-term, it would have been 10 years, 400 million, whatever it was. And they just got scared. And I actually think they overthought it, the Red Sox, the owners in the front office, because they looked at all this data and they've talked about, I think Haim Blooms actually talked about this, about offensive players in baseball in their thirties tailing off and tailing off because either their power peaked in their twenties or maybe they started breaking down from injuries or whatever. There's a lot of examples about this. And I actually agree with this logic. If it's like

a first baseman or a corner outfielder, Albert Bell is a famous one. I see it. I totally get it. I think where they whiffed, and where they whiffed in a way that's kind of crazy if you'd actually just watch Mookie Betts play week after week is this guy was one of the most unique and extraordinary and special athletes in the history of Boston sports and was probably the safest bet to go into his thirties and be just as good year after year after year, which is basically what's going to happen here. He is probably the MVP. I think he's the MVP favorite today because after he lit up Boston Saturday and Sunday, it's him versus Acuna.

He would become the second player ever to win the MVP in both leagues. Frank Robinson was the other one. That was one of those records that you just thought it was going to be Frank Robinson and that's it. And look, I don't watch the National League that much. I'll be the first one to admit it.

I do watch some of the Dodgers when they're on flipping channels because they're on at night here. The MVP case for Mookie beyond the crazy stats would be he is like this defensive Swiss army knife where I went to a game he was playing short. He's playing second this weekend. He could play center field. He could play right field. You can basically put him anywhere. So he's so malleable defensively and so elite wherever you put him that it allows you to create all these lineups around him. There's no other player in baseball like this. And of course, the Red Sox never really tapped into it, but I can't even think of had John Havlicek on the Celtics and he was a guard or a forward depending on what the team needed. And that was, he had this awesome career. He's one of the best 20 players of all time. And he made all NBA as a forward, he made it as a guard. And when he played forward, he was a legitimate forward. He was like a Rick Barry, Larry Bird used that way, but then he could also play guard too. And the Celtics over the years would kind of morph the team around the fact that he had the ability to play these two pretty different positions at the time at the highest, highest elite level. And that's one of the things that made him really special.

And that's the thing with Mookie too. Mookie came up as the second baseman, became an outfielder, and he's just the lead at everything he does. And he's such a special guy too. It's just, this weekend really hurt. I gotta be honest. I'm older now, but I still love sports. I feel like I love sports just about as much as I ever did. I love my teams. I love sharing with my friends and my family. My dad was here this weekend.

We watched some Dodger, Red Sox stuff. And it was just like, this is a guy that just should have been in my life for 20 years. I really feel robbed by the whole thing. It's a bummer. I'm happy for the Dodger fans that somebody that a really good fan base gets them.

But at the same time, this was just awful. Really awful. And when you think like, it's not like they didn't spend the money on other guys. The money that should have gone to Mookie eventually just went to Chris Sale and Trevor Story. Just one of the strangest, weirdest, goofiest fuck-ups I can ever remember in sports.

I don't think I've fully gotten over it, and I don't think I've really liked baseball as much since. We'll see when Marcelo Mair comes up. I'm sure he'll hit two homers and I'll be 100% back. But it's just really a bummer. And we're about to talk about another one of the biggest mistakes, the Trey Lance trade, and a whole bunch more with Michael Lombardi. In one second, first, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we're taping this late Sunday afternoon, East Coast time.

Michael Lombardi is here. He has been on this podcast and on the old ESPN podcast many times. We're going to talk a lot of football stuff. He has a new book coming out that we're going to talk about. I want to start with the Trey Lance trade, which really went badly for San Francisco. But I was thinking about in the context of these what-if trades, when a team is really close to winning a title and there can be this what if moment that can either push them one direction or the other,

right? And you think like they had the 12th pick in that amazing draft and then I'm getting nothing out of it. But yet when I was doing all my rankings for the season this year, they have the most talent in the league. So they, they whiffed on that trade and still have the most talent in the league. What if you just cherry picked anybody else from that top 12 and put them in there? It's just, it's kind of amazing how it worked out. Right. I still think they have a chance to win the NFC. They do. I mean, look, they finally, you know, other than Kyle had, when he went there, he had Brian Hoyer that didn't work trades for Garoppolo

that worked and then you know cj bethard nick mullins none of those guys work and now purdy worked and so yeah i mean they've collected this they've done a really good job of collecting talent around their defense the skilled players getting samuel you know trade for mcafree i mean they've done a really good job other than they missed they whiffeded on this one. And I think they got overextended. They kept convincing themselves they had to change the offense when really in reality, McCaffrey trade changed their offense. They became positionalists on offense. Samuels are running back. No, he's a receiver. McCaffrey's a receiver. No, he's a running back. That changed their offense, not Trey Lance. I

think they misjudged that, but they're good enough to recover. That's a good organization that does that. Yeah, I was trying to think other teams that could whiff on this and still win a championship. So obviously my mind went to the NBA because that's the sport I can remember the best. The Detroit Pistons. Yeah.

They have that Darko pick and they miss it, right? And Carmelo and Wade and Bosch are the next three picks. They could add any of them and added them to the team. And they little bit like the Niners got a little cute and they were thinking, well, we already have Tayshaun Prince. We don't need another wing guy. Let's, let's hit a home run here. Yeah. Darko. Oh, his game. Oh my God. He had this amazing workout like Darko and Trey Lance. There's a lot of similarities to, oh my God, this won't be a home run pick. This would be a grand slam pick if we add him and they with it and they still won in 04. And then they had a really nice four year run. But then you look and you think like, man,

if they had gotten Carmelo, it's different. I think the biggest mistake we make in scouting is we just have this ability to project a player that there's no evidence that it's there. You know, it's like a baseball player, you know, we're going to go from a wooden bat, aluminum bat to a wooden bat, and he's going to increase his power. Like that's not going to happen. We know it's going to decrease. And so when, you know, this Lance thing, he never played. I mean, I can still remember we drafted Terrence Flagler in the first round in San Francisco in 1985, and he was a disaster. And after the pick, and we found out about Flagler, the running back, Walsh said to me, he said, you know, you can't take these guys that don't play

and look forward. You got to take these guys that don't play and look back. That was my thought on Mitchell Trubisky, one-year player, Mr. Ohio in the state of Ohio, right? But they don't, doesn't get recruited to go to Ohio State. A quarterback, he gets recruited to play free safety. He's got to go to North Carolina where he doesn't play. Trey Lance, University of Minnesota says, we'll take you, but an athlete, not as a quarterback. And then he goes to North Dakota State and he plays, but is that really playing at the highest level? I think these one-year sensations, where you don't see them and you're projecting them like Darko and all those guys, you make mistakes on them and you convince yourself through your own

bias, oh yeah, he's going to be good, he's going to be good, he's going to be good. There's no evidence that says he's going to be good. Those workouts are tough. I mean, there's so many ways a draft can go wrong. Like even in your book, you wrote about when you guys passed on Warren Sapp in 95, because you had bad intel about off the field stuff with him, you know, not taking him. And he becomes one of the best 50 players of all time.

Marino is another one where, you know, and that's been pretty famously chronicled. So you have off field whisper stuff can be one thing. And then the flip side of that, where, you know, the right workout and you see somebody, I remember Yijin Lan, they're in the Duran Oden draft, Yijin Lan, like posting up the chairs and be like, oh, look at this guy. It's like, can we see this guy play basketball? And these scouts can just fall in love with the idea of something versus what the evidence

actually is, right? Right. Well, you know, I'm, you know, the life of a Sixer fan. Oh, Sean Bradley, we see, you know, and I know he's hurt right now. I mean, unfortunately, but he's going to be great. Okay. Markel Fultz. I mean, literally he came in and worked out and they said it was a horrendous workout,

but we're going to overlook that and pick them first overall in the draft. I mean, sometimes our bias just gets in the way of it. I wish I could live my life again and remind myself in the draft room, you have bias, you haveway, who everybody knew was like a potential generational quarterback. And they gave up Chris Hinton, another first, like you look back and it's like 20 cents on the dollar for this guy who becomes this amazing guy. But I think the thing that was really weird about the Trey Lansing, and I never understood, I remember talking about it on time on my podcast, you certainly talked about it on yours, is they traded up not knowing what they were going to do. I don't remember that situation before. Even when the Bears traded up for Trubisky, and they didn't trade up that much. They moved up one spot, they gave up a third and some other stuff. But what was more galling about

that was that Mahomes and Watson were in that draft and they just completely miscalculated it. This Niners thing was so different because it was such a great draft. There was a real chance somebody might fall down to them anyway. And when you move up like that, you kind of have to know what you're doing. And it didn't seem like they did. And you've talked a lot about on your pod about you felt like Shanahan wanted Mac Jones. And then they spent the next couple of months basically convincing him that Trey Lance was the guy, but how do you trade up to a spot and give up all that capital and not know where you're going to do?

Well, see, I think they did. I think he was in Cabo. He watched Mac, Mac Jones. He felt like, Oh, this guy, the Patriots are going to pick this guy. We got to get in front of the Patriots to get them. They already were in front of the Patriots at 12, but he felt they were going to trade up. And I think his front office, Adam Peters, John Lynch said, no, no, no, no. And it was all over Twitter. You can't trade up for Mac Jones. He's not athletic enough. He's not good enough. Trey Lance, you have to trade up for. That's who you have to trade up for. And look, I think this will go down. There's probably going to be a whole COVID-19 mistake world that we all lived in, right? You know, this was,

you didn't, nobody was on the road. Nobody saw them. I mean, the high school rankings in COVID-19 were all messed up too. The colleges that got high rankings in their- You're talking 2020, not 19, right? Yeah. 2020, COVID-19, I called it, whatever that is. So I think they just miscalculated and they convinced themselves. I can't remember. I sent Kyle a text and I said, look, I'm going to tell you a story. In 1986, we're getting ready to trade for Steve Young. And Bill Walsh walked in the room and asked everybody in the room, Mike Holmgren, everybody, Bob McKittrick, Ray Rhodes, Bill McPherson, George Seifert, all these legendary coaches, would you trade for Steve Young?

And not a hand went up. Now, a lot of them were partial to Joe Montana, right? They wanted Joe, right? And Bill walks out of the room and he says to me, go pick up Steve Young at the airport. I'm not listening to them. Sometimes you got to do what you believe is the right thing to do. And you're the only one who knows the right thing to do.

You know, I say this all the time. They've never dedicated a monument to a committee. When you're asking a lot of people's opinions, you're going to end up diluting your opinion and you're going to make a bad decision. I'm not saying Kyle's got all the answers. But when it comes to the quarterback position, he knows. And I think himself that he took the heat for it he stood in front of him say look it's on me i get that but under behind the scenes christopher sims and i both knew what was going on there and we both were saying it now we were getting killed on twitter certainly but i think

that's what happened and i think it's another lesson for any decision maker out there. You got to really limit the amount of people you evaluate the evaluators. I think sports and television work very similarly in that respect. Cause you think like, uh, the great shows, right? David Chase. Yeah.

Your favorite show, the Sopranos, one of my top three year. I mean, you're like, you're almost psychotic with The Sopranos. You can compare any situation to The Sopranos episode. It's really, I don't know how you do it.

It's really amazing. But David Chase wasn't coming up with the season three season finale. It's like, let me pull my group of nine HBO executives and 11 people in the writer's room and try to decide what I'm going to do with these three storylines. Like ultimately like it's his vision he's doing. And he had like one or two people that he bounced stuff off. That's it. And in sports, that seems like the most successful

model. The more that people come in and, oh, the owner's got some ideas. Oh, the owner's got a son. He wants to get into player personnel stuff. So now these are in the head coach is in oh wait the defensive coordinator has to be involved he's he his buddy coached this guy in college and now you got nine people in there and that's where it falls apart right right yeah i mean orson welles talked about this they asked him how did he get so much authority to make citizen kane because he when he made citizen kane he didn't have to show the dailies to the executives. He didn't have to get approval. He got all the authority to make Citizen Kane without any, any interruption from RK Studios. And the reason he got it is he kept saying no to them. I don't want to do it. And they kept pressuring him. And when he finally made it, they had to accept what

he made. And I think there's a lot to that. Like you get too many people interjecting their opinions. It all of a sudden that you, there's doubt that builds in there. And so he was able to make a movie. That's maybe the greatest movie of all time. I don't know. Right. So it's in the top 20 and because he was able to get away, it's the same thing with trades when you can just focus on, I don't think Pat Riley or Jerry West were the great NBA general managers. I don't think they listen to very many people. I think they make their decisions based on their instincts, having played the game, having been a part of it and understanding it. So when you were in Cleveland, how many people, in the Belichick era, how many people were in that room?

Well, there were a lot. You know, we had, well, we had David, we had the Modell family, Art Modell would always listen to the newspapers, you know, that, that day of the SAP draft, he wanted to draft Tyrone Wheatley because the barber told him Wheatley was going to be a great player. George, George the barber, I love George the barber. He was great. You know, he's an Italian guy, you know, and I made sure that I always talked to George, but you know, we screwed that up. I screwed that up because we didn't have enough data on SAP. We were told it was going to go bad and it, and it was wrong. Now maybe we got lied to,

maybe we got con because three picks later he goes. So, and we, and we had a great opportunity to make that draft still work. And we were sitting there between Curtis Martin and, you know, and another player and Craig Powell. And we just said, okay, we can get another, we'll get them later. And of course we didn't get them. So that's all on us. But what happens is when you get too many people saying, this is what you have to do, all of a sudden you don't have the conviction that you need. Not to compare 30 for 30 to Citizen Kane, but after I came up with the idea and I started developing

it with Connor Schell, nobody at ESPN thought it was going to happen. And we got left alone for basically like a year. And we developed the whole thing and then talked to all these people and nobody blocked us or got involved or anything because it just was assumed it was going to get killed and never happened. And by the time we finally had the meeting where we had to pitch it, everybody, we had every single piece figured out and there was no way for anyone to mess with it. And I just felt like if there had been a couple people at any point in that

first nine months, it probably goes a different way and things get screwed up. So, you know, I think I always feel like for something really cool to happen. A lot of times the least amount of people that can be involved, it's usually the way to go. Sports trades. I think you made a great point with the COVID year.

Because a lot of people have compared Trey Lance to Wiseman. And you go back and you look at that 2020 NBA draft. Wiseman goes second. Killian Hayes goes seventh. Halliburton falls all the way to 12th, who was like lights out, but there's no tournament that year. And Desmond Bain falls, I think, 30th. And

all these things happen that just because we didn't have a tournament to kind of watch these guys at the highest possible competition level, and then they weren't able to work them out in person. So then crazy shit happens. So do you think there had to be a little piece of that with NFL? Right. And there was too much information. Everybody was talking to everybody because you had to call somebody on the phone to get details because you weren't going to see the

player, right? Oh, let me call my buddy over here and talk about Desmond Bain. Let me talk about this player. Let me talk about all of a sudden you've got too many people. I think the key line in all, in any business, whether it's making 30, it's evaluate the evaluator. Who's giving you the information? You know, that's the key is like, we don't evaluate. It's like pro football focus. They just throw those numbers up there and they hide behind this curtain.

And I'm not against it, but tell me who's doing the evaluation. Like, I'd like to know, like, I want to know, like put somebody's name on it. Don't just say it's for football focus. Like, that's okay. Like, you got to evaluate the value because we're all going to be wrong. Like, that doesn't mean it's the Bible. It doesn't mean it's perfect. Like, just tell me who did this.

Is it some guy in his basement in Des Moines who doesn't ever come out except for meatloaf? Like, tell me the guy that does it. I want to know. And I think that's where we tend to believe this. And we're so gullible. We just believe what we hear, you know, because it's the easiest way to does it. I want to know. And I think that's where we tend to believe this. And we're so gullible. We just believe what we hear because it's the easiest way to do it. It's hard to say to somebody, I disagree with that take. It's hard. You get killed out there. But the people that do, especially with so many self-proclaimed experts, if you don't, as Walsh would say, we're all thinking alike. No one's thinking. I think another thing that makes this trade

like a possible documentary someday is just that draft, the top 12, where it's like Pitts, Chase, Waddle, Sewell, J.C. Horn, Sertan, Devonta Smith, Fields, Micah Parsons, Slater are all the next picks. Yeah, and Parsons is a perfect example, right? You know, there was a lot of dirt on him that he, you know, whatever it was at Penn State, like, and none of it was true.

Like, and none of it was coming from the Penn State people. Like, it was like, he was like, if you just go back and watch him, like, oh my God, this guy's great. But all of a sudden, all of this, and then, you know, there's so much misinformation. That's why, you know, if this, and then, you know, there's so much misinformation. That's why, you know, if you can focus and you know, as Steve Jobs said, focus is about saying no to everything.

If you can focus on what your task is, you'll be much better, but it's hard to do in this world, especially if you have any internet connection. Well, the Niners, we mentioned how loaded they are. I did this modified play rank thing basically off the blue chip red chip thing which you've been doing forever and then I tried to figure out honorable mention points

trying to figure out points for positions weighting them how important the position where so quarterback and edge rusher like those are more valuable than linebacker stuff like that I have them with McCaffrey Samuel Iuke Kittle,

Trent Williams, who's the best tackle in the league, Bosa, Hargrave because they signed him, Armstead, Fred Warner's the best linebacker in the league, Greenlaw, Ward, Hufanga, and then Shanahan who's one of the top five coaches. From top to

bottom, it's the most loaded team in the league. They have a crazy schedule. I think it's front loaded in one way and then it gets easier. But for the most part, really Purdy is the only thing that I look at and go, all right, well, that's a concern. But I thought Purdy was okay. They just need like a B minus, a quarterback, right? Yeah.

I mean, they just needed an average point guard. All he's got to do is just get the ball to him. I mean, when you study quarterbacks, one of the stats I think you have to look at that's never talked a lot about is the percent of completion over expected completion. For example, right? You know, Josh Allen, when he was a rookie, was 25% of guys that were open, he missed. Right. Now, last year, it was down to 16%.

So, what Purdy, all Purdy has to do is make the easy throw easy. He doesn't have to make it hard. Get the ball to Debo. One thing about the 49ers, if you break down, if they were a basketball team, they wouldn't shoot very little shots outside the hash marks. Everything they do is inside the middle of the field. And they run with the ball after the catch. The receivers are always on the move. They make one guy miss.

It's a 40-yard gain. Like Purdy doesn't have to be great. He can be Bob Greasy. Hand the ball off, throw it to Paul Warfield, and let the defense carry the day. The other thing I think we don't talk enough about is when you can play from in front as good as they are defensively, then it becomes a different game. Let the defense carry the day. The other thing I think we don't talk enough about is when you can play from in front as good as they are defensively, then it becomes a different game.

You know, that's one of the things that, you know, the Jets never could play from in front last year. Now the Jets only had two turnovers in the last nine games of the season, but the reality of it is. I thought they were the 85 bears on defense. I know that's what everybody tells you. Two turnovers in nine games. Two turnovers.

After this, I think it's nine games or eight games. Nine or eight games, they had two turnovers. After their bye week, they had two turnovers. And so how good can that be? But they never play from the front. They never play from the front. They have Zach Wilson playing quarterback. It's hard to do.

So it's hard to turn the ball over. My point is, when you look at that, Kansas City, you can move the ball on Kansas City. The problem is you get behind Kansas City, and then you turn the ball over. Yeah. You know, Philadelphia, you get behind, you turn it over. San Francisco, you get behind them, and Joey Bosa's, I mean, Nick Bosa's going to kick your ass. He's going to come with you.

Armstead, you know, you didn't mention Kittle. I mean, they got first-round picks everywhere. And that D-line coach, if you rank D-line coaches in the NFL, one through 32, this guy's number one. Right. I thought I did mention Kittle. I had Kittle in there too. Yeah, I had like-

No, no, I mean Kinlaw. Kinlaw. Oh, yeah, yeah. Who's the first round pick? Yeah. Right. Yeah, so one thing with their schedule, they play the AFC North this year,

which I think is going to be the best of the eight divisions. Yeah. And then they have Philly and Dallas and the Giants who, you know, the Giants have now become that they're over under like seven and a half. I think the Giants, I don't know why they're going to take a step back. I don't understand that either. They have some night games too and stuff like that. But if you actually look at the quarterbacks they're playing this year, I was looking at

the quarterbacks. How many, how many really good ones are you playing? They're only, they have Hertz, Lamar, Lawrence, Dak, and Watson. That's it out of 17 games. I'm trying to figure out which team, because every year there's one team that's going to go 13-4, 14-3, whatever, and it's a combination of talent, schedule, whatever. I'm having a hard time trying to figure out who that team's going to be this year

because the normal suspects, their schedules, nobody has the schedule Philly had last year. We all looked at the Philly thing last year. Remember it was like week three and you're like, man, look at that schedule. They might go like 16 and one. If you had to pick a team that was going to levitate above everyone else and go like 15 and two, 14 and three, who would you pick? That's a hard one. I would be reluctant to say San Francisco because you got to be careful with them. Their injury, remember they lose to Atlanta and they got killed by Kansas City during the middle of the season. When they get hurt, they're not the same team. So, and I think Seattle's

kind of a sleeper team in that division. So I think they're going to be much better. You know, I can't, there's no one in the South. There's no one in the North in the NFC. And the Eagles, I said last year, they had a Gonzaga-like schedule, but it's not their fault. They just dominated everybody. You know, I could see them doing the same thing. I mean, they've improved.

They're not any worse than they were last year. And their schedule, I mean, they dominate teams. Their schedule, they could beat it. In the AFC, there's too many good teams for somebody to go for. I know Kansas City won, I think, six of their games were a six point or less. I mean, they find ways to win close games, Kansas City. They're really good. And if Chris Jones doesn't show up, that'll be harder for them. So I don't know if there's a team in the NFC that can separate itself like they did. I mean, think about this, Phil. Minnesota

won 13 games last year. I mean, with a defense that gave up over 400 yards like it was no problem. Yeah. I don't see the separator team because the KC thing at some point, they're pushing it with the receivers. And last year, I picked them to win the Super Bowl and I'm like, you know what, Mahomes, just give them average receivers. He'll make it work because he's got Kelsey. This year, it's like Kelsey and I think one of the top five worst receiver rooms that anybody has. I don't even know if you have to say who would you want in fantasy. I don't even know who I would pick.

So just at some point, they're doing a little tap dance with that that I think they're going to go too far with. Well, let's just take, you know, people say preseason is meaningless, right? And I disagree. There's things you can find out in preseason. For example, last preseason, the Giants, you know, their execution was really good. It was right there in front of us. And I refused to acknowledge it. I just thought they were going to be bad. You know, they were able to, they completed passes in the preseason, their execution was good and it carried over. Last preseason with that receiving core, Mahomes played last preseason and he averaged 8.6 yards per attempt. This preseason, he was at 7-1. They struggled against Arizona the first two drives that they were trying.

They were trying to score. Now, eventually he got him down the field, but I'm with you. I'm not sure they're as good this point of the season as they were last year. I think it's going to take some time. Do they have that guy? They've got a lot of young receivers. I don't count Scantling as being a guy who's going to take a giant step up. Or Sky Moore. I remember the Pats put Brady in this position one specific year in 06. The Rache Caldwell, Jabbar Gaffney here, and Troy Brown, who was pretty done at that point. And Brady, that was one of his best seasons and nobody was open the whole season.

Caldwell was probably their best receiver and he was probably like a C minus. But I do think at some point you can throw the position away to the point that if nobody can get open against a good defense, I don't care how good my homes is. Um, let's, uh, we'll take a break. And then I gave you an assignment. We're going to talk about it. Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from FanDuel America's number one sports book right now, new customers can bet $5 and get 200 in bonus bets guaranteed. Plus all customers to bet bet $5 will get $100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. You can bet anything. You can bet the Packers to win the division. It's like plus 350.

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No refunds, terms, and embargoes apply. $100 off NFL Sunday ticket. Not YouTube TV. YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV. Redemption requires a Google account in current form of payment. Commercial use excluded. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance.

Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention,

and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, so I sent you a text. I gave you an assignment. I separated two groups of teams under the caveat, can't believe they made the playoffs 2023. So I did this last year. It has to be playoff teams that in the odds, it's plus. So I'm fan to all of these are plus odds. And they're separated into two categories,

kind of can't believe it and cannot believe it. So last year, the kind of can't believe it and cannot believe it. So last year, the kind of can't believe it playoff teams that ended up happening were the Dolphins that were plus 142 and the Giants were plus 225.

The I cannot believe it playoff teams were Jacksonville was plus 450 and Seattle was plus 500. So I sent you eight kind of can't believe it teams and I sent you seven cannot believe it teams.

Let's start with that group because I'm really having trouble. Here are the seven. Rams plus 285, Washington plus 310, Indy plus 350, Tampa plus 360, Vegas 390,

Houston 520 and Arizona plus 980 those are the seven if you had to pick if Paulie Walnuts has you in the backseat of a car with a gun on you and is forcing you to make a pick or you're not going to have Brigatoni tonight which one of

those seven jumped out to you well if I got to get the relish from Paulie I'm definitely it's Washington at plus 310. That was me too. Give me the mustard and give me the relish. You know, it tastes good. Washington to me is a team that's undervalued. You know, look, I know Rivera's got his problems.

I get that. But you can't play any worse than Carson Wentz played last year. I mean, their red zone was so bad. The Tennessee game, they dominate the game and they lose. The giant game that they lost in FedEx Field, they're in the red zone twice, can't come away with any points. I mean, they lost so many close

games that if Howell just plays effectively, efficiently, they should be better than 8-8-1. But you have a good quarterback shit detector. Is Howell setting it off? You think he's good? I think he's good. He's got great rhythm. He's got timing.

He can throw. He can move on the run. I think he's good. They've got good skill. I hate their offensive line. That's not a great line, but they can get by with it. They go into Philly, turn the ball over twice and still beat Philadelphia. I wish they would have signed a running back. I wish they would have been in the Dalvin Cook market.

For some reason, they think Robinson and Gibson are elite. I don't. But that being said, they're entitled to their opinion. This is a good team. They were one of the best red zone defenses in football last year. They were one of the best third down defenses in football last year. Like, you can't push them around. They're good up front.

And Chase Young is in his 50s. he's got he's playing for something yeah usually guys that have talent that play for something play good so i that to me jumped out to me that was the one i mean eliminate arizona i can't see that you know can indianapolis with richardson play i don't think indianapolis is good enough on defense to be able to carry the growing pains of the offense. That's what worries me about Indy. I think the Raiders will be better, but I think the Raiders are eight, nine, nine, and eight better. Are they a playoff team? I don't know. They were in a lot of close games last year. I mean, people don't realize last year, and it may be because they changed offenses, but Carr had his worst season as a pro. I mean, in almost every area, interception percentage,

the expected completion percentage, it was the worst he's ever been. You know, he had a high touchdown percentage, but he just wasn't the same player. You know, and they lose games in Tennessee. They lost the Charger game in Los Angeles. You know, they lost so many games where he had a chance to make one throw. Pittsburgh game. Throw the out to Devontae Adams,

we win the game. Doesn't throw it. They were in those games and they sucked on defense. They'll be better on defense, but again, the AFC is so hard. It's hard to really predict which one of these will steal a win here and there. I'm with you on card. I remember texting

you a few times during the season having the Raiders in a parlay or something. To me, I don't know if he's shot, but it seemed like he was shot for that team. I think with the Saints, because they have some good weapons. They're indoors. They have

a better offensive line than I think Vegas had last year. Change of scenery. Maybe he spent the offseason in Rocky Ford and Siberia doing the pull-ups. I don't know, but I'm not counting him out yet. Matt Ryan with the Colts, I was like, I'm out. Matt Ryan's done. There's no way. I don't know if Carr's done, but it felt like he was done in Vegas. I agree with you on that. I'll talk about Washington in a second.

Washington was the team that jumped out with the odds. Indy at plus 350 because of the division. Eight and nine might win that division for all we know. Jacksonville's defense not impressed by it. Tennessee,

who knows? The quarterback, I don't think he's going to be accurate. There's going to be some growing pains, but he's such a physical specimen. Steichen, I thought, was incredible for the Eagles last year. There's a world where they I don't know. They just use him like this shiny toy and they figure it out and they're just kind of hard to play. They have a really, really, really easy schedule.

I'm not ruling them out, but what did you see from Richardson? Anything? I think I saw a Josh Allen type player. I think he... The difference between he and Josh Allen is he's coming into an offense that fits Josh Allen. Josh Allen, it was a work.

And what offense are we going to run here? You know, how are we going to play Josh? It wasn't until the year three that they really nailed that down. And so this kid, I thought he had really good poise this summer and he's going to be inaccurate. His percentage of missing receivers is going to be high. The concern you have, I don't think they have great skill. Who are you worried about? Alex Pierce, you know, you worry about michael pitman like they don't have that you know receiver

and if they trade taylor who's the back like what are they doing there i think the skill around them we're a philly remember now just remember that jaylen hurts is they're nine and eight they go to tampa and they get whacked right and I mean they had that losing streak once they got to the six-pack offense but really the difference between the Philly team in 21 to 22 was the skill level you bring A.J. Brown and you put him on there with Waddle and now you got Dallas Goddard you got great receivers you got one of the best tight ends in football a really good offensive line all of a sudden Hurts who ran the ball average per carry less last year than he did in 21, they're a better offense.

So they don't have that skill around them. I could see them being 8-9, 9-8, because you're right. They don't have a hard schedule. I worry about how good they are on defense. I mean, they're not, I mean, the Philadelphia offense in the last preseason game had their backups. And I mean, they're real backups in there. And the Colts struggled to stop their offense in that first drive i'm with you on i don't overreact to preseason and i don't really watch that much of it but i do love monitoring the

dialogue behind it i think certain things jump out if somebody like o'connell the kid on the raiders which is everybody's like this kid's good like O'Connell, the kid on the Raiders, which just everybody's like, this kid's good. Just point blank. Watch the games. Watch the tape. You hear the teammates talking about him. Everyone's just like, this kid's got it. He's good. That jumps out. Then the flip side, Carolina just seems like a disaster. They don't seem like they're going

to be able to block. They're putting this rookie quarterback behind this line that can't protect them. He's got, I would say, the worst weapons in the league. If you're going his running back, receiver, tight end, skill group, I would say is probably 32nd, and they're not going to be able to block. So I look

at that. That was a team I was like, oh, NFC South, I don't know, any one of those three. And I've crossed them off just from the preseason. Well, I mean, they were good. Last year, they could run the ball. They ran for 350 yards against the Detroit Lions who are going to go to the Super Bowl this year.

Yeah, I forgot the Lions are in. They just destroyed the Lions. They ran up and down the field on them, but the Frank Wright factor. Wright, when he took over in Indianapolis, he had some of Josh McDaniel's staff and then he fired the line coach, and then that line got worse

in Indy every year after that. I don't know. I'm with... James Campin's a good line coach. He proved it last year, but so far, the quarterback's getting hit way too much. The left tackle, their first-round pick from North Carolina State, he's not playing well, and they're right. The skilled players are not, and I don't

think Frank's one of those guys who's got a legitimate guru card as an offensive coordinator. I never saw are not. And I don't think Frank's one of those guys who's got a legitimate guru card as an offensive coordinator. I never saw the guru card. I thought Frank was in the hall of fame. That was the memo I got the other day. The amazing job he did with the Colts where they had a new quarterback every year that he brought in and then apologized for in December. Yeah. And he's the guru from all the off season stuff. You know, it's like a guru card. There's no ruin that guru.

I'm with you. I want to love the Panthers because I think they're a good team. Because we liked them last year. They really came on. They also lost Foreman, who I thought was huge for them, and they lose DJ Moore too. Right. DJ Moore keeps his helmet on. They're going to beat Atlanta. They're in the playoffs.

They beat New Orleans in one of the ugliest games of the year, 10 to seven with no offense. I mean, they're good on defense. They're not elite, but they're good. I think that owner, you know, look, he fires Wilkes. He doesn't hire Wilkes who did a really good job and deserved to be the head coach and put Reich in there. Reich's under a lot of pressure to play that. He's got to, I mean, like,

how did you got that job because you're supposed to be this offensive mastermind. And where's the mastermind coming from? I think Wilks lost his job the week after they blew that Tampa game, which they were 21-0. Tampa, which was a carcass, all of a sudden they can't cover Mike Evans for three quarters. Tampa beats them and goes to round one and gets completely

annihilated. And I think that probably made them go, oh wow, we're way further away than we thought, but they should have beaten Tampa. Quickly on Washington, their schedule is a nightmare. I mean, these are just the tough games they have starting in week two. At Denver, home

Buffalo, at Philly, at Atlanta, at the Giants, home Philly, at New England, at Seattle, at Atlanta at the Giants home Philly at New England at Seattle at Dallas at the Jets home San Francisco home Dallas so that's those are 12 games that they're not going to be favored in right and that's ultimately what's holding me back with them and Rivera Rivera's another one what's the evidence that Rivera's a good coach always had four playoff seasons and three winning seasons. You'll never hear those two things go in a sentence together. Four playoff seasons, but only three winning seasons.

I mean, that's really somewhat remarkable. I mean, look, they got a really good defensive team. Their front's good. This Emmanuel Forbes kid can intercept passes. I mean, they were one of the worst teams creating turnovers in the league. So, look, I think they can pressure you. They're good on third down. They're good in the red zone. I'm with you.

The only drawback for me is if they brought Parcells from Jupiter and let him coach Washington, I would be all in on it. Philly's over-under is 11.5. Dallas is 9.5. Giants are 7.5. Washington's 6.5. It's the first time I've ever looked at a division and thought all four could go over.

Yeah, I think they're all low, right? Like, how is Philly going to lose? How are Philly losing six games, right? I mean, 11-5, 11-6. You know what else is out of whack? Hertz is like 12-1 to win the MVP. And if you look at his stats last year, You know what else is out of whack? Hertz is like 12-1 to win the MVP. And if you look at his stats last year,

I think he was 3,700 passing and like 800 rushing. He missed two games. And then as you know, they probably sat on like eight fourth quarters. Yeah. So I don't even know. He really probably played like 13 and a half games if you take out all the fourth quarters where they had a 20-point lead. And this year, their schedule is harder. And I was just thinking,

couldn't he go for 4,000 and 1,000? And he's got Brown, and he's got Smith, and he's got Goddard, and he's got the best offensive line in the league. Why couldn't he just go nuts this year? Right. I mean, he went from his rookie year, he went from 25% bad throws down to last year, he was at 14.2. That just shows you how much he

improved. So, Brown's going to get open. Now, the only thing that you could say is the injury bug had been part of Philly's history in the past. Last year, they avoided it completely. Now, that creeps up, but I mean, we're sitting here. We can't predict injuries. You know, as Belichick said, we're not a doctor. We can't predict them. So I have no idea. But they're good. I mean, and I think every number in that division is low.

Like, I want to say the Giants aren't going to be as good. But the Giants know how to play the game to where they slow the game down. I mean, the Giants are like Princeton in basketball. They're going to slow it down. They're going to back cut. You're going to say, how are they beating us? And they beat you. They had a good draft. Thibodeau came on as the course of last year went along. They found that receiver in November out of nowhere who I think is going to help them. But I just, I don't know. I just, Dayball, I have a hard time thinking he's going to go seven and 10. They were too well prepared last year. So my final answer on the cannot believe it teams,

I might not take a single team from that group. Cause my whole theory at year after year, it's like I always wanted six new playoff teams when I'm doing picks, right? Six and six, six always go out, six go in. Now we have 14 playoff teams instead of 12.

And it's been steady the last two years. It's been seven, a bit out seven come in. And I'm looking at the last two years. It's been seven have been out, seven come in. And I'm looking at the kind of can't believe it section. And I really liked the teams in this section. So it's Pitt plus 128, Green Bay plus 138, Giants plus 172, Carolina plus 172, Chicago plus 172. This is all to make the playoffs. Denver plus 186. Tennessee plus 198. And New England plus 250. And I have five of those teams in bold.

Yeah. Lombardi. So starting with Pittsburgh. I'll tell you your five. Oh, yeah. All right. So it's Pitt, Green Bay, Giants, Carolina, Chicago, Denver, Tennessee, New England. So what's my five?

You definitely have Pittsburgh because I'm with you on that. I think you're with Green Bay. I think you're with Tennessee. I think you're with Tennessee. I don't think you've jumped on the hype train of the Chicago Bears. And I'll say the Giants since you're 15. So Pitt, Green Bay, Giants, Tennessee, New England is who I am looking at. I got them all right. You did. So we'll go in order. Pittsburgh plus 128. So as you said, the Lions are in the Super Bowl. I don't know if people realize that they're already on the program and stuff because they finished the year so strong last year.

Such a strong ending to the year, right? Oh, of course it's going to carry over. Pittsburgh was seven and two in their last nine and almost beat Baltimore and pick it. I thought was legitimately solid. And now it looks like he's even taken a step up. They had a good draft. They had Watt missing for three months last year.

Warren might be better than Najee Harris. I guess we're going to find out. They got Pickens in year two and I'm just looking at them going, I think that team can win the division. Yeah. And they had a great offseason. I mean, Patrick, people can say well for Minnesota. You know, Tomlin's a great coach. Look, that's the biggest, you know,

when you get that media train behind it, like Detroit, so they both play. This is what I keep telling people. They both play Carolina in consecutive weeks. Pittsburgh goes into Carolina and kicks the living shit out of Carolina. I mean, Carolina can't do anything against them. They win the score.

I think they won by two touchdowns or eight points, but the game was never that close. They kicked Carolina's ass. The next week, Detroit goes down there and Carolina kicks Detroit's ass. Pittsburgh's a really good team. If they would be in the NFC North, they would be the favorite to win the North without a question of a doubt. I mean, they're really well coached. The quarterback didn't make mistakes the second half of the season. Remember that Baltimore game that they turned the ball over three times. My man, MVP Mitch came off the bench in a relief through two red zone touch

interceptions. He couldn't wait to help that happen. So that killed them there. I think they only turned the ball over five times in that nine-game stretch, and three of them came in that game. I'm with you on Pittsburgh. I really am. They might have a chance to have a top-five defense, right? Or top-seven? They'll be somewhere if everyone's healthy. I think it'll be in the top. When I was in Cleveland, Kevin, we played in 1989. We played in the Astrodome. And we were either going to be the number two seed in the AFC,

or we were not going to make the playoffs if we beat the Oilers. And they were great. They had Warren Moon. They had this great team. I wrote about them in the book. It was incredible. Kevin Mack scores with 47 seconds left to go in the game, and we win the game. We get the number two seed.

That's the last time, 1989. That's the last time the Browns finished ahead of the Steelers in the North Central, whatever you want to call it. Think about that. That's the last time it happened. It's the last time. And so, like, they're just physically, mentally tougher than a lot of these teams in the North. Well, you must have loved the Tomlin quote this week.

Oh, yeah. That was Parcells' quote. He just put it around in a different sentence. So for the people listening, what was it? You know the quote. What is it exactly? I've never known a boxer that can win a fight

if he don't spar. That was his theory on preseason. Yeah, I'm going to play my guys some of the preseason games. We got to put some sparring in. And then you have other teams like Cincinnati would always start last couple years slow in September. That's a team...

I love Cincinnati. I was one of the only ones that was all in on them last year. I thought they were going to be in the final four, and they were. It does worry me. The slow starts. Now Burroughs hurt. Tough schedule for them. They're a really tough division. I still think they're going to make the playoffs,

but I do think that division's wide open. Yeah, I do too. And look, I like Cleveland. If not now, when for Cleveland? I mean, really, if not now, when? I mean, Cleveland's really good defensively. They've got, you know, good rushers. They can run the football.

They got the best running back in the league. I mean, they can do so many good things, Philly. I mean, the Cleveland, they just have to win these. Now, Cade York, the problem, right? I mean, he missed another kick the other night. Like, they've got to figure out this kicking situation. I don't know if they're going to give up on a fourth-round pick because the kid's got talent.

Think about this, Bill. Some of the best kickers in this league, Buckner, the kid in Philadelphia, and then the kid in Carlson, right? Elliott and Philly, right? All those guys were drafted. Well, Tucker was, but all those guys were cut and put on a practice squad that the teams took, right? So, you know, Kansas City took Buckner off the Carolinas list. And so, same thing.

Carlson was drafted by the Vikings. They gave up on him early now he makes every kick he think he made a 60 some yarder last night so who's another one who is on what the chargers and now yeah yeah he got the charger jinx remember the chargers couldn't make a field goal to save their life you know so i i mean that's the only concern i have about cleveland cincinnati five and four the last years starting out. They're going to be different defensively because their safeties are going to change. They're going to play. They lose Bates.

They lose Von Bell. They're going to start Hill in there. They're going to be different defensively. I think it's going to... And they haven't really... They don't do much in the offseason. I mean, Zach Taylor is kind of like, I want to rest, get the guys healthy. So I don't think... No P. Ryan. A lot on mixing this year. I don't think you can start slow in the North and come back. I don't think no P Ryan lot on mixing this year I don't think you can start slow in the north and come back

I don't think you can well then Baltimore is another one because Baltimore's defense is already like decimated yeah they're bad I mean they can't cover anybody I mean they've been one of the worst secondaries in a while and Marlon Humphries who's a really good player needs to play in slot not outside I think it's going to be

fun he's out for a while right he's going to be out for a month probably they're not going to, but you don't have an ankle injury and come back and play great corner all of a sudden. I think that's going to be hard. Look, all they talk about Baltimore is they're going to change their offense, change their offense, but they got to run the football. They got to keep that because when Miami had to throw it on them and people have to throw it on them, if you block them, if you're signing Clowney this late in the summer, that means you're worried about your pass rush.

Totally. Yeah. The other thing with Cleveland is just what do we do with last year's Watson season? Do we toss it away? Is that the guy he is now? We haven't seen him be good in three years. And that's my hesitation with them because I'm with you. They have a ton of talent.

To me, Pittsburgh is the safest bet. I really like Pickett. There's been a lot of Desmond Ritter propaganda this season about the weapons. I bet on them a couple times last year with him. I just didn't see it. I didn't see any flashes or anything. Pickett

got knocked out in a game. I thought he took some big hits. I thought he got better as the year went along. And I just like him. Yeah, I do too. And see, the problem is Pittsburgh's offense isn't sexy. Nobody talks about it. You know, they'll throw for, they just win games.

They run it. They're effective. Their offensive line is much better this year. Fireman is one of the best tight ends in football. They can block at the end of the line. You know, they just don't, you know, Pickett was effective with the ball. Look, if they don't let the Jets come back on

them in that game where Zach Wilson has his finest hour, they're going to win that game, right? Remember that was Zach Wilson's finest hour coming on NFL Films next month. I mean, that's a 30 for 30 for you there. They win that game, they're in the

playoffs and nobody would have won a play. They were too physical. I'm, did they win that game? They're in the playoffs and nobody would have won a play. They were too physical. I'm with you. Cleveland has to prove to me that they're mentally and physically tough. I think that's the issue

with Cleveland. Well, and their coach too. How about Stefanski? I don't know if I trust him at all. I certainly wouldn't put him in the top

like half of the coaching circuit. He's probably in the bottom 10 or 12. We just haven't seen it. Well, I mean, you know, I of the coaching circuit he's probably in the bottom 10 or 12 i don't we just haven't seen it well i mean he you know i don't know who he's talking to in the box but when you have fourth in your own inches at your own 25 what do you get out of that like what what could the analytics tell you that tells you you should go for it you only get three more downs you don't get a touchdown you only get three more downs right like why would you do that

well that's too logical. Let's take one more break and then we'll go through the other teams here. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage.

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Green Bay plus 138. And I feel like I'm taking crazy pills with them. I think they're going to be good. I'm kind of in on the Packers. And especially in that division. And if you just give me the Lions over here and the Packers over here. And you're saying with the Packers, well, they don't have Aaron Rodgers anymore. Okay. He didn't play well

last year. They didn't really have Aaron Rodgers last year because he wasn't good. Love's been waiting for this for a couple years. They have a lot of assets on both sides of the ball. It's a team that succeeded in playoff games. They have a lot of first-round picks. I don't know.

I could see them going 10-7. The plus 138, 9-8 might make the playoffs in the NFC. That seems logical. I'm with you. They gave up 34 points to Detroit in two games last year. And if Rodgers would have played half decent in either game, they turned the ball over in the red zone.

And that killed them. Their defense the last half of the season, I think, gave up an average of 17 points a game. They were really good at the end of the year. They were playing good defense. They were healthy on defense. The front seven's really good. They can rush the passer. I mean, they're good and they're, they're young. I mean, other than Preston Smith and Devante and Devante Campbell, Devante Campbell, they're, they're a young defense.

They can run around. Alexander can cover anybody in the league. Their offensive line, Bakari's back. He's good at left tackle. And they've got two young tight ends. But these young receivers, Dobbs and Watson, are really good. I'm with you. All love has to

be is good. You know, it's funny. Packer fans... He's like, pick it. Just be like a b minus and we're good be a decent point guard that's all you can be speeding klaxon a point guard that's all you gotta do just be a decent point guard right of course we drafted him in the first round anyway anyway anyway we'll go no just be gay vincent bring the ball up and some threes exactly you know so like think about this bill it's been it's been since Don Majekowski took a snap and they went from Makowski to Favre, they've had like 11 right? And they're just going to have to find a way to win. Now, the problem is I worry about LaFleur.

Is he going to do something that I don't like? And that's what I worry about. But to me, watching him this summer, I think he's running the offense that best suits love. Their schedule, they play the AFC West. So that gives them Vegas and Denver. And then NFC South, which potentially could be favored in every game,

hard games for them this year at Atlanta, at Denver, at Pittsburgh, at Detroit home, Kansas city at the giants at Minnesota. That's really it. So it's sitting there for them. And if they hit their draft, which is always the hardest thing to figure out with this stuff, but people seem to like their draft. I'm with you. I really liked Watson. I have them down. We crossed off Carolina. We don't need to talk about Chicago

for more than five seconds. Here's my thing with Fields. You've gone even further with it. I just want to see it. Let me see it for five, six games. Let me see games where he goes like, you know, 25 for 36 and throws for 320. I need to see some variance other just when I'm in trouble, I take off and I'm scary that way.

I just want to see it. I'm not ruling it out, but I don't trust it. You're even more dubious. Yeah. I just want to see it. I'm not ruling it out, but I don't trust it. You're even more dubious. Yeah. I just want to see him get good. I think we've carried away that he's this elite thrower. Like just the other night, they're playing against Buffalo. He's two for six. He makes one throw to DJ Moore. It's in the dirt. It's not very accurate. And I want to see him have rhythm to his game. I want to see him process. I don't want to see him like, oh, I don't like it. I'm taking off and running. I admire his athleticism. I'm not disput to his game. I want to see him process. I don't want to see him like, oh, I don't like it. I'm taking off and running. You know, I admire his athleticism. I'm not

disputing that, but I want to see him play quarterback. And the longer he doesn't play quarterback, the more defenses are going to force him to play quarterback. The other thing is the Bears are not good on defense. I mean, I'm just, they're not good on defense. I mean, the Buffalo went right down the field. I mean, Tennessee with their backup, with their starting offensive line and Malik Willis went right down the field. I mean, Tennessee with their backup, with their starting offensive line, and Malik Willis went right down the field this summer on them. So they have to turn the ball over in Chicago. I just would like, I think the expectations on fields is too great.

Lower them a little bit. Can he get to where he'll throw 30 passes a game? Because last year they averaged 22.4 passes a game. I mean, other than the Miami Dolphins in 72, I don't know how many teams just averaged 22 passes a game. I heard you talk about this on your pod and I looked it up. And in the 21st century, it's one of the three teams that threw the ball the least that we've had. And they were behind in every game.

Well, that's the thing. I did some stat where it was like teams that had five wins or less and the least pass attempts. And you would just think, all right, if you're behind, you're going to throw the ball more. And they just,

they wouldn't throw the ball even when it was like 38 to 10. They were just afraid to do it. They don't want to. They know what they have. I mean, they say all the right things, but they know what they have, and they're going to do exactly what you should do, is manage the quarterback correctly.

We have this notion in the NFL that all these quarterbacks are just elite and you just let them out there and play. That's not the case. They all have to be in the right – like, Hurts is in the perfect system. I think Richardson will be in the perfect system, right? Like, all these quarterbacks, if they get into the right system, they really look special. There is a case for fields.

Better weapons this year. Another year under his belt. We saw him throw more in college. I'm definitely not ruling it out. I wouldn't bet on it either. To me, they're a wait-and-see team. After what they did to the Patriots last year, a little scared of them anyway, but,

but he's not going to be the MVP. Like that's what I keep regarding me. Like, why are we betting them for the MVP? All right. So the Giants were plus 172. That was the other one. That one I like because to me, I,

if they hadn't made the playoffs last year, I would even like them more. They kind of snuck in. They were nine, seven and one. I don't think they were, even they didn't think they were a playoff team. Somehow they win a game.

So now it seems like last year was this huge success. And it was like, maybe this was the year, not last year that they were going to make the jump. They just took advantage of a week NFC. They played Minnesota in the playoffs. They have a lot of talent, you know, and they're going to, they can do specific things.

They're incredibly well-prepared. They're really hard to play. They have a really good pass rush. They can cover like the linebackers are probably the weak part of the team, but I don't know. 10 and seven seems realistic to me with them. I just, I have a hard time betting against day ball. Right. I think if they were in the

AFC, we wouldn't have this conversation. I think they would lose out. They would be one of a lot of good teams. But in the NFC, they kind of stand out. I mean, look, when Daniel Jones is running and moving with his feet and using, because he's a good athlete, I think they're a better offense. I think if he's going to be a pure

pocket passer, the game's moving too fast. But when they get his legs involved, like, and he last year they did it. He was their second leading ball carrier. I mean, they use elements of the six back offense in there and they, and that helps Daniel Jones. And I think with Barkley and him, they're better defensively. They, you know, Waller, if he's, they're using Waller as a receiver, which is what you should do, right? Waller's not a tight end. He's not blocking anybody at the end of the line, but he can, he's really disruptive as

a receiver. They're going nuts about, they're going nuts about him in the offseason. That's what happened with the Raiders too. They went nuts about him too. And then all of a sudden he had a hamstring and he had a contract. So maybe the kid's happy now, you know, that he's there and we'll see, but he's a weapon. He's good. There's no question.

I just think to me, the Giants benefit from not being in a great, the NFC is not great. Let's face it. They're not. I mean, the AFC, other than to me, Houston, I mean, you can make the case for Indy. What team could you not make the case for? You can say, well, the Raiders. Raiders look pretty good this summer and Garoppolo wins games. You can say whatever you want about him, but he's a good player. Tell me what team couldn't you make a case for in the AFC other than Houston? Well, Denver plus 186, which Giants I'm on the fence for. So I really have four and a half because I'm not sure what I'm going to do with that Giants spot.

Denver plus 186. I was looking at this hard because as you know, we've talked about this in the past. I love when a team goes from a terrible coach to a good coach. I think that's, and this happened last year with the giants. It's about once a year when just that coaching upgrade feels like it's not worth like three wins.

It's worth like five or six because urban Meyer with Jacksonville, just not having urban Meyer anymore and bringing in somebody that was competent was huge. And I really wanted to talk myself into it with Denver. And I just can't get there. They've already had a bunch of injuries. People seem split on how Russ looks. I didn't love all the money they spent in free agency. It was like Peyton's like, I just want an offensive line. I didn't even really love who they got or how much they spent. They're playing in the same division with the Chiefs and Chargers.

Their schedule's pretty hard in general, and I just couldn't get there. Where do you stand? I know you have a lot of respect for Sean. Oh, I love Sean, but I think Sean's at the point. I mean, last night, Jared stood him. I mean, they killed the Rams, which, you know, I love the Rams announcers.

They're always saying, well, the Rams, we're playing our backups. The Rams have nothing but backups. Let's just put that out there. So you're playing your team. They're always saying, well, the Rams were playing our backups. The Rams have nothing but backups. So you're playing your team. You're playing your team. You don't have a first team at the Ram. You're just playing. I mean, I think they have Aaron Donald's only first round pick on defense.

So they destroyed him. But Stidham was good in the game. I think Wilson has not been good so far. Oh, no. Are you going where I think you're going? I'm going to say if they start slow, I think Wilson's on. I think Wilson's on a really short lease. Now, I know that he's on a really short lease. Sean didn't go in there with the idea that, oh, we're going to make Russell work. You got to fix Russell. Sean went in there saying you got

nothing. You just make the team better, make the team better. So I could see that manifesting itself. Now, look, if he comes out and he plays well, I mean, Sean's going to do everything to try to make Russell play better. But Russell won't move. Russell doesn't want to step up in the pocket. Russell doesn't have the same speed and quickness to get away from people that he wants. And those Russ Cook plays are not cooking anymore. So I'm a little dubious. I'm with you. I think there's

going to be improvement in every phase. I just don't trust Russ to be able to turn it back on. I think Seattle was right when they traded him. When he rushed for 172 yards, very low first downs, it was time to move on. They knew. It's almost like in basketball,

and I remember last year we were talking about it on this podcast when Darren Williams, the point guard, all of a sudden he just wasn't as good anymore and it didn't make sense because he looked the same. His style was the same, but all of a sudden he couldn't beat guys off the dribble anymore.

Something seemed slower about him, but he didn't seem fatter and that was it and it was over and he went from like he was an all-nba player to you know kind of bouncing around and i don't know it seems like wilson lost some sort of that escapability and athleticism that made him really special it just doesn't seem like it's there anymore so then now he's a short guy be now he's basically the baker mayfield syndrome. Exactly. Yeah. And he won't throw it that, you know, it's hard to get it to throw it. How many play actions can you run or all those things he's tried to do it this summer. It's just not happened.

You know, Sean is playing well, he'll run the ball, but I'm just, I just have a sneaky suspicion. I think there's two quarterbacks to keep an eye on that are going to kind of maybe change the, I think Kyler Murray, what they're doing in Arizona. I think Kyler Murray's on a very short leash there in terms of their change in their locker room and their culture. And I think Russell in terms of his talent, even though he's got a guaranteed contract next year, I don't know if that means he's going to be the starter. If he doesn't play to the level they expect him to.

My computer almost caught fire. That's a good one. I'm kind of mad. I'm jealous. I'm more jealous right now than anything that I didn't think of. Could it be Jared Stidham time sooner than... Because we saw Belichick do this with Bledsoe and Brady a million years ago. These coaches who are like, I'm Sean Payton.

I don't give a fuck. I just want to win games. I don't care who my quarterback is. I just want the best one. He's not going to care about past performance. If he's like, Stidham's better, that's it. We'll sort of be out. I like that. We as fans, we don't realize

they watch practice. Everybody says, well, Trey Lance didn't get a chance. They watched him in practice. He did have a chance. They know more than we know. I think Sean knows what we know. I think Sean knows what we know. I think Sean knows. Last two. Tennessee plus 198. I'm just announcing this now.

I'm picking them to win the division. They're good on defense. They'll be good on defense. The year from hell last year, they were 8-3. The whole team fell apart. They got hurt. Their running game, Henry and then this rookie they have who, look, it's preseason

whatever, but the guy did it in college too. He's legitimately good. They're going to be able to run the ball. Their receivers, I thought Burks, before he got hurt last year, I actually picked him up in fantasy. I thought he was coming on, then he got hurt. He got a concussion, but they have two receivers that will at least be able to get on, then he got hurt, he got a concussion.

But they have two receivers that will at least be able to get open, him and Hopkins. And then they have Vrabel. And Vrabel has had a lot of success over the last five years. And Tannehill, you don't have to worry about Tannehill not being the starter. Like that whole Malik Willis crap, you know, all that. I mean, that ain't happening. So, yeah, I mean, look, any team that can go and play the Kansas City Chiefs with Malik Willis, the quarterback, and get a first down in the second quarter and then not get another

one and get the game to overtime deserves their attention. It's a miracle. I mean, that tape belongs to the Hall of Fame. Nobody wants to. That's kind of the greatest coaching job in the history of coaching. To go through that and endure that. I mean, I was like, I sat there and all that night. I can't believe that.

I mean, and they're struggling. And Andy Reid off of Biweek, we know all that rhetoric, right? And it's true. Didn't phase it. Yeah, I like them. Last one is the Pats. So last year I was out. I went under.

I was telling people they're going to suck this coaching thing. I don't know what they're doing. This team doesn't have it this year. And I was pretty adamant. I to suck this coaching thing. I don't know what they're doing. This team doesn't have it this year. And I was pretty adamant. I really liked this year's team. The schedule is a monster. They have the worst schedule in the league. And that's the case not to take them,

not to mention their division stuff. But, and we'll find out when the guards come back. Like, of course they have to play Philadelphia in week one when we have no idea if Cole Strange and Wano are even going to play or not. But defensively, I think they have a chance to be pretty special. And it's weird that people don't realize this yet. Well, their defense was third in DVOA last year.

Easier schedule. But they kind of crushed the draft. And there's a real vibe coming from this team on the defensive front. I know you're wired in on this, but could you smell it? Can you feel it? Yeah, I think, look, you know, it's funny how perception rules the day they're driving in just to beat Cincinnati in that game where they fell behind. Remember this one? And then they come back and Stevenson fumbles the crazy play against las vegas if you take those two plays and just and some of the other crazy stuff but just limit it to those two they're going to make the playoffs yes i mean and that's

what in spite of all the problems they had losing to chicago on monday night disgusting but that chicago game motivated them in the draft They know they had a better team speed. They'd have to play quarterbacks who could move better. The kid from Sac State, you know, is really going to be a good Mayfoo. He's going to be really good. I mean, really good. He played the other night, and he's really going to be a good player. And he'll play within their system and in their scheme.

He's communicating the calls. You know, look, it's going to come down to they got to be able to protect. Their offensive line is in transition right now. It's going to take the month of September to get that going. But if Jones protects the football and doesn't do stupid things and just manages

the game and they run it, they can be an effective team. I don't see why they can't. They're going to get better as the year goes on. I don't doubt Belichick's going to make the team better. Plus, I think the team's, as you mentioned, I think the team's I don't see why they can't. They're going to get better as the year goes on. I don't doubt Belichick's going to make the team better. Plus, I think the team's, as you mentioned, I think the team's mentally tough. They have a 2001 Pats-ish vibe in the following

respect. I think they're going to ask the offense, just don't fuck the game up for us. We can win this game on defense. And the other thing is the special teams is going to be really good. Special teams was awful last year. They're the worst punter in the league. And the other thing is the special teams is going to be really good. Special teams was awful last year. They had the worst punter in the league. And this year, the punters, every pun is in the air for five, six seconds.

They have a great kick returner. They also drafted a kicker who everybody likes. But I think the special teams is going to be a real asset. Yeah, I love that. I love Asante Samuel when he came out and said that Brady's won all the Super Bowls for the Patriots. So my question to Asante would be, in the game against the Rams, how many yards did Brady throw for? Oh, God. The Super Bowl win.

In the second half, I don't even think he threw for 50 yards. Well, let me set the record straight. And I think Brady's great. I got two Super Bowl rings because he's the greatest quarterback of all time. So I'm not disputing that. But it takes a partnership. They threw for 134 yards. They rushed for 133.

Like, it takes three elements of the team to work together. And I think that that's what the Patriots have to do to defeat this schedule. They've got to be, like you said, better in the kicking game, better protecting the football, and not do stupid things with the ball, trying to lateral back. It was very unlike Belichick last year. I agree. It was a bummer.

And it was the whole season we were saying this over and over again. It's like, what is, this is the most un-Belichick-y team I've ever watched. Then you go through the rest of the teams. We don't know what's going to happen with Miami. They're already banged up. Who knows with Tua. Jets, who knows if they're going to be able to block. And then Buffalo, I just,

from a talent standpoint, I just don't think people, I think people seem to rate them at a certain level talent-wise when they're at a different level. They have Josh. So if your argument with them is like, they have Josh Allen, they're going to go 10 and seven every year because they have Josh Allen. I don't have a counter, but you can't tell me like they're loaded all over the ball because they're not. Yeah. I mean, they paid that Oliver like he's a top 10 defensive lineman. He had two and a half sacks last year. And he's a nickel rusher. Like, okay, come on. I get it. And Von Miller, are we sure he's still good? I mean, he was good. Major injury last year. Yeah. I mean, so like, look, the one thing is they've been New England's kryptonite since that win game. New England hasn't

really come back to beat them. So until New England can step up, they won't be able to beat them. We are supported by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV. And if you're a displaced fan like I am, proud Bostonian living in Los Angeles for the last two decades plus, can't believe it. NFL Sunday Ticket, an absolute must have. And now that it's on YouTube and YouTube TV, it's easier than ever to keep up

with all your favorite teams games on Sunday. I'm excited for the four box so that in week one, the Pats are playing the late game and I'm going to be watching four games at once and their four box on Sunday. So it'll be 10 o'clock Pacific time. Here are the choices. Texans, Ravens, probably not going to be one. Bengals, Browns. If I was

the czar of the four box, which honestly they should just hire me and make it, Bengals, Browns would be one of the four. Bucks, Vikes, no. Titans, Saints, I think makes it for me because I really like this Titans team as a possible AFC South team. I'd want to watch them. I want to see the Saints. So there's two. Panthers, Falcons, probably not. Jaguars, Colts. Yeah. I want to see Richardson. I think he makes one of the four TVs for me. And then the last one would be 49ers Steelers, which is a no brainer. That's the best game of the early days. So I would have 49ers Steelers,

Richardson, Titans, Saints, Bengals, Browns. That's a nice four box. Put me in charge, YouTube TV. Thanks to NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV for sponsoring this segment. Truly the best place to keep up with all your favorite teams out of market Sunday afternoon games right now. You can get $50 off your subscription when you sign up at youtube.com slash BS. That is youtube.com slash BS terms and blackout restrictions apply.

Offer ends September 19th. Let's talk about your book. So how many, how many years do you spend on this? Well, I think it's been like a lot of time. I, I, I start, I started this when I got on the team bus in San Francisco and Walsh was doodling Clark Shaughnessy plays. And I wondered who the hell Clark Shaughnessy was. So I would say most of my career, I've been thinking about this and watching it. And I've had moments where I had no respect for some of the older players, too arrogant to think that they could play today, which is completely wrong. And I wanted to kind of set the record straight from my own way. I remember doing an interview with Steve Sable and I completely dismissed Johnny Unitas. And after I thought about it, I went back, I watched it and I just was like, you're an idiot. You really are. Like, don't be like that. And I think that's what this book's about.

So you lay out all these different things about football. And then ultimately, you have your 100 greatest, most memorable players that you split into some sections. When I did this with my basketball book, it was way easier because we had five positions. The stats were a little easier to compare. And you could figure out like, oh, it's the 60s. The points were askew and all this. This is so much harder. How do you compare receivers pre-1990 to receivers post-1990? How do you compare the careers that lasted seven, eight years, then somebody would get hurt and that was it. They were done versus the guys now who can play 15,

17 years. So for you, it just kind of jumped out like there was just some sort of greatness vibe that you kind of centered on, right? Yeah. And I think the rules, you know, the way we like today, like today, the NFL is really hard on defenses. They've shifted the rules so much that it's hard to play defense. You have to be simple on defense. You can't be overly complicated. Back in the 60s, the 50s, the rules favored the defense. So you had to be simple on offense.

I mean, in the champion ice bowl, I mean, Starr got sacked 13 times. I mean, could you imagine what talk radio would have done to Lombardi if he got sacked? Oh, my God, they would have killed him. But when you have to block like this in pass protection? How the fuck can you block anybody, right? So you have to kind of weigh the rules into it too and

kind of flavor that in. And then as you watch the game today, like the best guy for me is like Buckus. People say, well, Buckus couldn't play today because he can't cover anybody, right? They wouldn't ask him to cover anybody. He'd be the blitzer. He would be Parsons. He would just come. He'd line up wherever you wanted to move them around and say, okay,

go get the quarterback. And he was just wreak havoc. Right. And he wreak havoc. He might drop to a zone like Parsons does, but you're not going to ask him to. So I think we're just a little bit too hard on some of these players. And I, and I tried to try to do it. And then I really wanted to talk about the coaches. You know, I coaches, we're all from some tree. We all learned the game some way. And one of the issues that I had in my career was I saw the game a certain way. And when I worked for somebody who didn't see it that way, I wasn't as good as if I worked for somebody who saw it the

way I was brought up. So you are a product of your environment. It's your childhood that kind of develops you as a coach. Well, I like that you sprinkled in. I mean, there's so much history. Part of the problem with football, I think we do a better job with it in basketball. In football, because of fantasy, because of gambling, and because it's so much fun, the 14 hours every Sunday,

I really do feel like we just go forward, forward, forward with football, and we rarely go backwards, right? Like you had in your top 100, Kenny Washington was the first guy. I would say like probably nobody knows who that is. And if you know about him, like you actually did some work. And this was this legendary UCLA player. He's black. He was there with Jackie Robinson.

It was just like just, you know, the school gets struck by lightning twice with these two incredible athletes, but it's a different era and he doesn't have the career he should have. It's a little similar to Connie Hawkins in the NBA. But when you started out with that, I was like, oh, he really put the time in on this one. Yeah. Well, because I felt like, you know, you wouldn't have football in Los Angeles if it wasn't

for Kenny Washington, because the city council demanded that they have black players. It broke the color barrier in football. If the city council didn't tell the Cleveland Browns who were relocating to become the Cleveland Rams or the Cleveland team that relocated there, then there's no chance you would have had football. And so they made them have African-American players on the team. Kenny Washington, it was washed up at this point with two bad knee injuries. Right. It's like Connie Hawkins. He comes in the league.

He's already kind of washed up. And then the league started. That's what happened. It took, really, it took till, you talk about a doomed franchise. Washington's had two of the worst owners in the history of sports. I mean, Preston Marshall wouldn't let anybody in, any black player in until Bobby Mitchell in 61 or 62. He's in the hall of fame, by the way,

how I don't know. And then of course they had the great Daniel Snyder or the lack of great Daniel Snyder. So I think that's really important to understand how you got football in Los Angeles and what had to happen. And I don't think a lot of people know that story. What the league does a bad job of is honoring like the coach of the year award should be called the Paul Brown award.

It should be an honor to Paul Brown. They don't like to go backwards though with that like the nba like really loves to go backwards they bring the guys back all the time they wore the bill russell logo it was brilliant it was great i mean that's what you should do you know if you don't look at your past like you know and i'm talking about going all the way back i mean poor clark shaughnessy we wouldn't have the forward pass if it wasn't for him and he can't even get a sniff into the hall of fame right you had that story about buck buchanan on the chiefs and how he was the first pick in the afl but he was in the 19th round in the nfl and it was like and part of the reason it's not like the afl was you know this wasn't like mart Luther King as the AFL commissioner.

It was an advantage for them. They were trying to beat the NFL and get as many good players as they could. So they saw the potential in grabbing all types of people. It was very similar to the ABA against the NBA where they're like, you know what? Well, you don't even have to finish graduating college. Come here now. And it was like, this is an advantage. We don't have a lot of advantages but it's just it's just crazy to think in the 60s that a guy could be the first

pick in one league and a 19th rounder in the other league because that's how the other league looked at black players yeah no question and al davis was a proponent of that they scattered those and remember now you know colleges weren't letting black guys in so the the swag and those schools were really had great great players, Willie Lanier, they couldn't get into these schools, you know, because they weren't welcome. And so we don't talk enough about that. I think we need to, you know, we really do. And I think that that's really important. And I think people don't understand what the AFL-NFL rivalry was. I mean, Al Davis talked about it, but he's the commissioner of the AFL, and he's going to bust the NFL.

The AFL, they had a rule in the AFL and the NFL that they would not sign veteran players. The veteran players, if the team wanted the veteran, you had them. But the Bills went ahead and violated that, and they signed pete gogalak the kicker so that so al davis declared they went to the mattresses al davis went to me he was cooking in the room he was adding sugar to the for the gravy right he was like clemenza he went to the mattresses okay and he starts signing roman gabriel he signed he signed uh the quarterback at san Francisco. He was signing every, all these players, you know, the John Brody. And, and meanwhile, he's doing this and tech SRAM and Lamar and Lamar Hunt are at the Dallas love

field, negotiating the settlement and getting the settlement to the AFL NFL and the merger, which pissed off out. He was the commissioner and he wasn't involved in any of that. So that hatred with the chiefs carried over for a long, long term. And now you understand why. To me, that's all important part of the history of the league. Al Davis was like,

Mikey, why don't you tell that girl you love her? Yeah, exactly. Whenever I would tell him that, I can still remember the day I walked into his office and said, I think I can get Randy Moss from Minnesota. That's one of the best receivers. Don't you fucking tell me. Lance Allworth was the greatest receiver ever.

Like, I love it. Lance Allworth was a big winner in your book. Oh, he's great. I mean, he's tremendous. I mean, you know, I think to me, those guys that were making, because remember now, to get open back then, you had to get away from press coverage. The corners were huge.

Well, and if you went over the middle, you were going to get decapitated. That was the other piece. You're going to get killed. Yeah, exactly. So, um,

yeah, a couple of things from your book. You had a, you had all Marino part. Now, as you know, for me at, in the moment at the time,

Reno and Elway to me were like same plan. Yeah. Right. And then Elway gets that little bonus of Terrell Davis and Shannon Sharp and the 97-98 team and wins the two Super Bowls. So now Elway's above Marino and he should be because he got the Bulls. But

you wrote how when a team has someone as gifted as Marino, it becomes easy to put everything on his shoulders. As John Madden often said, a great quarterback becomes a deodorant for all that ails the team. Teams take the path of least resistance in every

area, believing the great player can overcome any inadequacies. Miami's team building around Marino, not his play, cost him his Super Bowl. I totally agree with that. Marino not winning a Super Bowl, to me, is a team-building catastrophe.

That was it. And I hold him in the same esteem. Like I got Montana at the top, Elway, and then Marino, like right next to each other, Montana over them. But man, Marino, he should have won a Super Bowl. I don't hold it against him. Same thing for Barkley. Barkley should have won an NBA title.

Multiple. You know, what people don't realize, Don Shule is the winningest coach in NFL history, and rightly so, and he's in my top 10 coaches. They went four years with Marino without making the playoffs. Right. Four years. I mean, like, how does that... He would have been fired

today. Not even in a good division. Not even... Meanwhile, Belichick doesn't make the playoffs, and he's on the hot seat. Meanwhile, Ron Rivera, he's suntanning over here nobody gives him any you know nobody's worried about him it's just to me it's a different marino i think the story i tell about marino in the book about how he got really screwed by a local newspaper and they put out a lot of bad rumors that even his agent marvin demoff couldn't clamp down you know, and for all those quarterbacks to go against them. I don't think there's been a better thrower of the football than Dan Murray. I call him Danny.

I mean, I could watch him all day long. And I was at the game. It shows you I was we play them in my in Cleveland. He he he throws a pass and he reaches down and this is the game he rips his Achilles and he limps off. And I think, oh my God, thank God. He's not going to play anymore. I didn't want him to be hurt. And in comes Scott Mitchell. He throws an interception to Mustafa for a touchdown. And I think, oh God.

And then of course we lose that game anyway, but that was the last play he ever had. I mean, it was sad to watch him. I mean, I saw Jurgensen walk off the field. I've seen him walk off the field, but you're right. There's no way he should be that far away from anybody, but he doesn't have the field. I've seen him walk off the field, but you're right. There's no way he should be that far away from anybody, but he doesn't have the titles. I also think he's, if he had come along 20 years later

with how the rules changed, he's at least paid Manning. Yeah, I mean, he's so smart at the line. In the 80s, 90s, you get the shit kicked out of you, right? If you played 15 years, it was a miracle. Yeah, this trend that you have to move and make a second play,

Dan Marino didn't need a second play. No. He didn't need a second play. He was unbelievable. You were writing about quarterbacks, the three things to look for. Level one, can the quarterback throw the ball through the door? Level two, can the quarterback hit the doorknob? Level three, can the quarterback throw the ball through the door? Level two, can the quarterback hit the doorknob? Level three, can the quarterback throw the ball through the keyhole?

That was your Rodgers case for what stood Rodgers out. I liked how you put that, though. I think you should add level zero, Mitch Trubisky. He can successfully field the snap. I think level zero. The snaps can work every time. Yeah, I mean, that's the... Look, how many games have you watched?

I can still remember some Peyton Manning playing Baltimore in Baltimore, and he's got a third and four, and if he punts it back, Baltimore's going to win the game. And Dallas Clark is as covered as you can be, and he puts the ball in the only place it could be, and it's a first down win the game, but it's a play that kind of doesn't get enough attention.

You had John Hannah 30th, who is the best guard of all time. Yeah. And it seems like it's around the right ranking, but you could also make a really good case that he's still the greatest offensive lineman ever. My favorite John Hannah stat 183 games played 183 games started. The guy was just,

you just, we plugged them in for like the entire seventies and eighties basically. And he was the best at all times. He had Redwoods for, for legs. I mean, I, you know,

it's funny, my initial top, I had them higher and I talked to a people in the, I relied on some of the people in the league that studied this time. And they said, you know, it's the past block. It might've been a problem today. I moved. And he's a guard. If he was like tackles, but I love watching him play. I love watching him play.

He was an amazing guy. So you had Munoz as your greatest offensive lineman. I never saw his uniform dirty, Bill. I mean, the guy never got dirty. Can you imagine he pitched at USC? Could you imagine being a batter in the batter's box at USC and having him wear that little hat on his big head and he's going to throw a fastball down the plate?

I don't know if I'd stay in the box. You had Sanders over Emmett. I'm not going to spoil the whole book, just a couple of things that jumped out. Did you at least think about that one or. You had Sanders over Emmett. I'm not going to spoil the whole book. Just a couple of things that jumped out. Did you at least like think about that one or you just had Sanders? You just felt like he levitated above everyone. I mean, I think Sanders paid a price for where he got drafted.

I really do. You put Sanders on Dallas. What do you think is going to happen? I don't know. Like I've never seen anybody like Sanders. I, you know, the guy who's,

I just watched it. I just was watching it before we started. Tyree killed first play of the Jacksonville game. He's not covered. I don't know why, but he likes Sanders. You know the guy who's, I just watched it. I just was watching it before we started. Tyree killed first play of the Jacksonville game. He's not covered. I don't know why, but he's not. And Tua throws a softball to him. And like, literally, it takes about an hour to get to him. He's wide open and it gets to him.

And all of a sudden, he pivots and turns and Tyree kills at instant speed initially. Right. Like, and he outruns everybody who has an angle on them. And that quickness that he has reminds me of Sanders. Like I rarely see that kind of quickness, but he'll ask quickness and speed. You still have Hill as your number one receiver.

Yeah. I scared to death. I like your case. It's the Steph Curry case. He just, he changes how everyone else is regarded in the game. Watch that play. Just watch that play. First play in the game. Watch that play. Just watch that play.

First play of the game, okay? He lobs it over there, and I stop the machine, and I'm like, I don't want to argue with anybody anymore, but this is the best receiver in football. Nobody can do this. Nobody. I've had more Emmett versus Barry arguments than any other football argument, I think.

And I get it. I just think for a big game, a big physical January playoff game that is just going to be, everybody's going to be in an ice bath after, that's the running back I want. Right. A couple of the playoff games he had,

I know his offensive line was awesome, but they were also going against some of the best defenses of all time. So I felt like it evened out. And that dude, he was just four and a half yards of carry. And it didn't matter. You could have a 15-person box. He was getting five yards. Go back to what we

started this whole podcast about. Believe in what you see and not listening. Think about Emmett. Incredible production in high school. 8,000 yards at Escamba High School. Then at Florida, unbelievable. And all of a sudden, we're not going to believe he's going to be a good back. And when Jimmy took him now, go back and read the clips like, Oh no, he's too slow. Like I talked about it in the book, my, my good friend, Jerry Angelo, who I love to death.

He loved them, but he could, but he listened to everybody talk, tell him that he was going to be too slow. I don't want to spoil the book and I'm not going to say the top five, but you had Ronnie Lott sixth and I gasped. And then I was like, you know what? I'm in easily the best safety I've ever seen. That guy was unlike anybody I've ever watched play football. You could accuse me of bias on him. I don't know if I saw a better player.

I don't know if I've seen a better all-around teammate, motivator, winner, and tough guy. I mean, he played corner, too. Probably like the closest to, not to compare anyone to Russell, but for football, if you're going to say, all right,

who had the most Russell-like qualities for leadership, invincibility, fear of the other team, um, steadiness, um, ability to rise to the occasion in big games. He probably checked the most Russell boxes.

He's unbelievable. And you, you know, it's funny when I tell the story of the book and we drafted Tim McKay or Ray Rhodes said to me, we were all worried about Tim McKay or tackling, which was a concern. And Ray Rhodes said, Ronnie will

get him to tackle. He won't go in the huddle and face Ronnie, not tackling. That's powerful. That's powerful. When you've got a player that good that can change everybody else's play, like Russell. Well, and also he was such a leader that they had that game when he was playing against Charles

Haley's team in Dallas, and Charles Haley's team in Dallas. Charles Haley was having one of his freak-out moments and tried to fight Troy Eichmann. They couldn't calm him down. The only way they could calm him down was to go to the other locker room to get Ronnie Lott to bring him over to calm Charles Haley down. I was like,

well, that's a leader. You're not even on his team. You're the only... All right, here's the big one. This is the thing that made me the angriest. Then we'll go. I thought anyone especially you Gronk, you had 61.

You had 61st. He's the best tight end I've ever seen. You know how important he was to those Pats teams. He was the best blocking tight end of the modern era. He was the most dangerous pass catching tight tight end of the modern era. He was the most dangerous pass catching tight end, probably of the modern era and an incredible big game player.

And my feelings were hurt, Lombardi. I think, well, I mean, look, I love Gronk. You know, the injury factor, I think, was concerning. You know, I mean, he missed some time with that. He wasn't like John Hanna, 183 for 183 right you know but that being said you know it's funny i put a guy in the top 100 who's not in the hall of fame ron kramer who was the first version of gronk yeah i mean the guys the guy was gronk before gronk and so i mean i could you could argue that i look i love gronk he probably maybe deserves to be up another thing i

just felt like there's other guys that you kind of went through i mean like i'm sure i'm going to catch shit for not putting patrick mahomes in my top 100 well i felt like he needed more of a career i think i think rock will age better this is today i think gronk will age better i think the players are like wine do they age really well and i think they willk will age better. I think the players are like wine. Do they age really well? And I think he will age better as we go forward. Some guys don't age as well. There's been some basketball players that that's happened to where they've aged nicely.

You didn't have T.O. in there, right? I think I did. Yeah, I'm pretty sure I did. Yeah. I always felt like with T.O., he's going to age. The stats are going to age great and every year we get away from what a fucking disaster he was

to have on your team. His catch per ratio, I don't think we talk enough about that. Touchdown to catches. T.O. was really good in that area. He got the ball. What's the job of a receiver? Catch it, run with it, and score touchdowns. He could do it.

Here's my case for Gronk, just quickly. This is how I think you know somebody's truly great. If somebody is compared to, let's say, Gronk, like you're watching a game and the announcer is coming up, they're showing a replay, like Pat

Fryermuth, who is a good player. Um, and it's like, Oh, watch Pat. Just remind you, Rob Gronkowski. And I'm on my couch.

Like, stop. No, you're not allowed. They do this with Lawrence Taylor all the time where they compare people to Lawrence Taylor. It's like, no,

no, do not compare people to Lawrence Taylor. Stop. I think Gronk will age better. I think he will. I think, I think the more data we, the more, the. I think Gronk will age better. I think he will. I think the more data we... The more, the further away from Gronk we get, the better he'll age.

I'm sure of that. That's so accurate. I just don't think we're seeing another tight end like him. Right. Because, okay, I just did the blue chips, red chip tight ends on my pod. Nobody lines up on the line at scrimmage anymore. You got Kittle, you got Firemuth, and you got Dallas Goddard.

Don't even insult me and tell me Kyle Pitts is a tight end. He's not. Or Kelsey. Or Kelsey. Or Ingram, who just got a contract. Those guys are not tight ends. They're big Fs. Now, they're valuable.

Don't get me wrong. But I think probably where your argument is, is because they are a dying breed, the line on the line. Why they probably just, because there was a time where they, you had to be an on the line. Why Dick Mackie, those guys.

Well, the guy, the Raiders took, isn't he a potential three down tight end? It sure is. Yeah. He's an old school tight end. And fire moose and old school got her.

So there's still some of those guys, but I think Hunter Henry can be like that if he stays on the field. But look at the value. I mean, Meyer went I thought when I saw Meyer play at Notre Dame, I thought he was going to be a top 10 pick for the same reasons you're talking about Gronk. And then he didn't have a

great senior year. And I just watched him today against Dallas. And I'm like, yeah, that guy's going to be really good. I felt like Gronk was Shaq I've said this before like he was officiated differently because physically he was so dominant compared to everybody trying to defend him that they just let everybody commit interference on him because it didn't seem fair it's like he's 6'6 running a 4 5 40 when he had those white gloves on they look like two toilet seats catching the ball like seriously it was like these huge hands that would just like i mean it is i mean but maybe in the paperback you might nudge him up in the paperback and get him to like 52 when's the book come out september 5th

and what's the title it's called the football done right all right you can hear mike lombardi on the gm's shuffle podcast as well and you can you can see him. You're on this and you're there. They're working pretty hard over there. They do. It's good. Yeah. You know, I, you know, you know, I don't bet and I love it. I just, to me, it's like, I'm handicapped. Like I worked in the league. You're just breaking teams down. It's kind of fun. It really is. I got to say, I might have been the person who tried to teach you. In the mid 2010s, you literally didn't understand one aspect, like not even the point spread. I don't think you understood. It was weird. You were the only Italian who didn't understand how point spread worked. No, I didn't. I didn't. Yeah. So I'm proud when I hear you rattling off futures and props now. Yeah. I'm like, oh, look at Lombardi. Good to see you. Thanks for doing this. Good luck with the book. Anytime. Thank you.

All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks so much to Lombardi. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti as well. Don't forget new rewatchables coming Monday night. The Equalizer. Oh, yeah. And I'll be back on this feed on Tuesday and then Thursday part one of the big two-part preview extravaganza with Cousin Sal.

So that is the schedule for this week. Enjoy the rest of the day. Have a seat on the rewatchables on Monday and on this podcast on Tuesday. I don't have Must be 21 plus and president select states. I don't have to ever forget Tennessee, and Virginia. You can call 1-800-NEXTSTEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-800-9WITHIT in Indiana. 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana, mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, 1-800-GAMBLER.NET in West Virginia, or 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here.

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