The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Annual AFC Over-Unders With Cousin Sal | The Bill Simmons Podcast (Ep. 407)

Episode Date: August 29, 2018

In part one of their two-part podcast, HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal gear up for the NFL regular season by running thru each team in the AFC, they talk odds, sleepers, parlays, and more! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's very special two-part, two-platform episode of the BS Podcast and Against All Ads brought to you by ZipRecruiter. When it comes to hiring, you don't need a high hiring IQ. Sal just got hired. I did. You just got hired. We'll talk about it in a second. ZipRecruiter's powerful technology scans thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience

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incur huge legal expenses, or even lose your job. If you think drunk driving is no big deal, you couldn't be more wrong. Drive sober or get pulled over. Learn more at nhtsa.gov we were brought to you by the ringer.com where we just had pizza day sal i saw it pizza day a special day about pizza there's a whole la pizza scene favorite pizza pop culture and pizza whole thing i like i liked i read the first 11 paragraphs i was uh i was i was I was like, I need more. And then I started getting real hungry. And I'm like, I have to read this later. That's the thing.

We ended up getting pizza for lunch today because we really wanted pizza. Check that out. Check out the Ringer Podcast Network. We're against all odds. Well, part two of this podcast will be running. That's there. Tate Frazier. Yes.

He's back. I'm back. Glad to be here. One time, it's like special. It's like when Brock Lesnar comes back to a wrestling pay-per-view. It's like, oh my God, the Survivor Series. That's Brock Lesnar. He has Against All Odds with Mark Titus,

and he has GM Street on the Ringer NFL Show feed. He got promoted. He doesn't really produce pods anymore. I know. He's a host. Against All Odds with Mark Titus. No, we're taking your feed. That just got announced.

Yeah, right now. It's one chatting podcast. All right. He must not have known he was going to join us today because he wouldn't have worn that shirt, would he? Now he did. What's going on? You have a nice stripe down the middle.

What is that? Yeah, there's a little Jordan shirt. Come on. He's trying. I'm trying to get in shape, so I'm working out every day. All right. On pizza day, no less. It's not pizza day.

So Tate's here, Sal's here. We knew the AFC over-unders on this podcast. And then if you want to hear the NFC over-unders against all odds, Sal's podcast, you can hear that part two. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right. The Cuz is here. Tate's here.

The band's back together. Wow. I love it. I love it. You haven't been on in a while. I haven't seen you in a couple weeks. I wandered over. I power walked to your office about four weeks ago.

Showed up in shirt and shorts and just kind of sat in with the gang for an hour that was really fun sweating like a pig is screaming about how hollywood's disgusting oh it's awful hollywood's awful you're just it's a landmine of spit and feces and it's god knows what else in dreams it's in dreams it's still the dreams the hollywood star and people are pile driving donald trump star and it's it's ho's Hollywood is like a war zone out there. So I go there and I don't even realize that your last day is coming up as a writer. You were one of the OGs. You are now going to be on this FS1 gambling show.

What's the name of the show? It's called Lock It In. Lock It In. And it's me. It's the lovely and talented Rachel Bonetta. It's Todd Furman. Caesar's Palace is Todd Furman. Yes.

And then Clay Travis. So when at what time is the show on? 4.30 to 5.30 Eastern time. We're going to preview the games for the day, and we're going to bet on games, and we're going to have fun stuff going on. There's going to be an interview segment. Monday through Friday.

Monday through Friday, live. Live, Simmons. They do these things live. I know. Even Kimmel doesn't do it. Even when we did it live. Jimmy Kimmel lives. Yeah, it was live. It's not live They do these things live. I know. Like even Kimmel doesn't do it. Even when we did it live. Yeah, it was live. It's not live anymore, but that was, yeah, that's like

a five second delay. I'm going to really F this up, aren't I? What do you think about Tate, Sal having a 9-5 job? Just don't rip the pasty off, Sal. Don't rip the pasty off. Don't rip it off? Okay, leave it off. That's all you're going to do. Sal with a 9-5 job now on top of his other 9-5 jobs. He's got too many jobs

it's great I'm a personal assistant unbelievable so you're going to talk gambling, you're blowing it out gambling now legal in the United States you have covered this extensively on the Against All Odds podcast we've been waiting for this moment for a long time

I feel like we've been part of the journey now I get to screw it all up it's funny like SVP and Stanford Steve get credits. Like we were doing this stuff when Stanford Steve was just Steve. How long? Yeah, you're right. He didn't even have a school attached.

Yeah, he was just Steve. How long we've been doing that? And Guess the Lines kicks off again next Tuesday, right? Yeah. How long have we been doing this? 10, 11 years? The 07 season was our first one, which ironically,

we did week one Lions and then week two was Spygate. That's right. That's right. Not ironically. I think we inspired it. Yeah. I think,

I don't know if Spygate had already happened before we did the week two Lions, but yeah, this is our 12th year. It started, I guess the Lions started when you were just, you were our 12th year. It started, Guest Alliance started when you were just,

you were doing it with your buddy Darren who was down against all odds. And then we started doing it at work. Yeah. And we were at the Jimmy show together. And now it's year 18. Another thing we've done for a long time was this over under stuff,

going back to the Grantland days. Yeah, for sure. This is good. This is, and I prepare, we were talking about how we prepare for this. Yeah. You want to talk, um, and I, I prepare, we were talking about how we prepare for this. Yeah. Do you want to talk, you have it all on an iPad, which is, it was all scribbled out 10, 12 years ago, but you now, what do you do? My biggest ad this year was Google docs. Cause I always found like I would write out everybody's schedule and either capitals for home

and the at sign for a way and I'd put it in just ridiculous. And by the way, I don't know why I wouldn't have had like one of our fantastic interns do that, but I actually liked doing it because- I did too. That's how you work. So now I just screen grab it and I make little notes and then I put it in Google Docs and that's worked out even better.

So I have- You screen grabbed all 32 schedules? I did. I did. This is humiliating, but I watched the second hour of Bachelor in Paradise this morning and screen grabbed all 32 schedules? I did. I did. This is humiliating, but I watched the second hour of Bachelor in Paradise this morning and screen grabbed all 32 schedules and made little notes. Only the first part is humiliating.

I think all of it is humiliating. What are you talking about? It was in my underwear at my house. So I do, I take index cards and I start writing them up in June and I have the team, their record last year. They're over on their total projected total this year, their coaching staff, their schedule, their free agent signings, their free agent losses, their draft signings, and then a little bit of a depth chart

and where they rank on pro football focus, passing and running game. You know, I used to do it that way. It's stupid. No, the thing is, the dumbest thing with football is how much turnover there is from year to year. Yeah. And with very rare exceptions, I think when it's something like Jacksonville's defense last year, and you're like, wow, they added this guy, this guy, this guy.

Like, this is clearly a different team. For the most part, though, it's very zero-sum game-ish. Like, this team adds these three guys, but they also lost these three guys. Sure, yeah. And it kind of, for the most part, evens out. Yeah, if you lose a cornerback, you have to sign a cornerback. Yeah.

Start to. So, you know, I think the thing, I made little marks mentally for things like Mike Williams, the San Diego guy. He didn't really play last year. He was kind of, sorry, he couldn't really go. Now he's back. Add that plus their first round pick.

Now there's a roadmap to a talent change. But for the most part. Yeah, it's not like basketball where there's five starters and one guy really could turn it around. And now you have like. It happens with the quarterback. So like Tyrod Taylor not being on Buffalo this year. I believe it's Tyrod. I believe

it's Tyrod. He wants to go by Tyrod. I being on Buffalo this year. I believe it's Terod. I believe it's Terod. He wants to go by Terod. I'm not listening to him. But them going from him, and he was at least competent enough to make the playoffs, and now they have AJ McCarron and Josh Allen who – Right. It's early. They have Peterman. The early signs aren't great for Josh Allen.

Right. But that's significant. Sure. But if you go from a left cornerback who is in 88 to a left cornerback, who's an 83, like, do we have to waste time talking about that? No,

no, but we will. And there's some new coaches for us to make fun of. There's some old coaches that we were worried we're going to get fired, but they came back. I can't believe they're around. Yeah. So I have to say like real quick that I have the most gratifying moments of

the year for me. I would say like when Christmas shopping is done, when the annual physical results come through and I don't have some weird parasite eating away at my intestines, that's a nice sign. And when I add up my wins and loss total for each team, it comes out to 500. Because I used to do it and I'd be like,

oh my God, these guys have like 18 more wins than losses. So now I have to find nine losses. But it actually worked out this year. And it was so nice. Yeah, because I'd put a win on one schedule and a loss on the other. And it takes freaking ever. But I remember when I had the page two column and I would put the records in and one year it didn't add up right.

And I got a ton of emails about it. Four more wins and losses. Yeah. So every year after that, I'd add it up. And instead of making it even, I would always be off like two wins, three wins. People get so mad. I would take a couple extra wins here. But the thing that is a bummer about doing this stuff is.

He's already out on football season. No, I'm not out. I'm actually It's the third week in August. I'm shockingly in on football. Okay. Alright. I think it's really hard to find the sleepers now. Yeah, that's true. I think there's so much discourse day in, day out, week in, week out.

Everybody knows what signs to look for. I was really psyched because I had the Rams last year as I bragged about every week on this podcast. And the reality is I picked them for really dumb reasons, right? Like they had more talent, but it was really a bet on the young coach hoping he was going to be good, easy schedule. There were some signs, but it was still like, I was surprised as anybody that they had a chance to like,

sure, basically compete for the Super Bowl. And it's like, so all right, anybody that they had a chance to like. Sure. Basically compete for the Super Bowl. And it's like, so, all right. So the Niners are everyone's darling team. So do you want to jump on that? But you're not a sleeper. Right. So you don't want to jump on that bandwagon, but you've heard enough of it. People praising them that you're like, all right, yeah, this is no longer a sleeper.

But they're hearing it too, which makes them not a sleeper. You think they're hearing it? If they're going in a training camp, people are like, yeah, you guys are going to be good this year, man. Full year of Jimmy G. Yeah, you guys could win the division right you're not a sleeper anymore

like a sleeper to me is like the Jets the Jets are a fucking mess they haven't really been good for five six years they have a rookie quarterback we're not sure about their coach

they have a bunch of new guys right if that team made the playoffs yeah we'd be like what the fuck the Jets are five and one yeah

the Jets are seven and three and then you have the whole Teej Teej who could have? The Jets are 5-1? Yeah. The Jets are 7-3? And then you have the whole, Teej, Teej, who could have guessed the Jets would be 8-2 heading into week 11. So who's that team this year? Usually the team jumps out at me, and this year I just had a lot of trouble finding it. All right, we'll go over it.

We have to wait. Yeah. So AFC East, we're going to hit first. We have four divisions and 16 teams to go through. And we have some fun bets, too. It's not just who's going to, what the over-under is, but also like the make the playoff bets we've enjoyed. Make the playoffs division win.

We've lost a lot of money on that. We've lost a lot of money on parlaying three or four division champs together. Right. The Pats and two other teams. And the Pats are the only one that wins. We should just bet the Pats. Right. Pats, Packers, Steelers.

Rodgers gets hurt. And then we'll have a team to not make the playoffs and something stupid will happen. All right. So first team are the Pats. Over-unders, 11 wins. They are 6-1 to win the title. They are minus 800 to win their division.

I got all these lines from the internets. Minus 1100 to make the playoffs. Tate, minus 1100. Tom Brady goes down in like week three. I don't know. That one worries me. Tom Brady's 41 in case you were scoring. Okay, but all right.

So, what? Hoyer takes over. Yeah. Belichick, I had the tiger at this point. Yeah. Hoyer, Tannehill. I'm going to win this. Hoyer, Tannehill, Sam Darnold. Who am I missing here?

Josh Allen. I don't know. AJ McCarron. He's right there. He's right there with those guys. He's still in the best quarterback of the AFCs. I'm going to tip our thing here. You're expected to win the division by four and a half games because the next closest over-under is what, the Dolphins, six and a half or something?

And you're expected to win 11. So you have a lot of leeway. You won 13 games last year. They're projecting 11. If you win nine, you're okay, I think. The defense is much better. I am in the camp of the new defensive coordinator, Brian Flores. I thought Matt Patricia was just overrated

just period and in general like the Belichick assistants McDaniels being the notable exception had been for the most part overrated they added some dudes on the defense not to had towers back they lucked out this fifth round pick the linebacker Bentley

who actually seems like he's going to be really good the front seven is just going to be better. The front seven was awful last year. On the flip side, the receivers are other than Chris Hogan, no Edelman for the first four games. It's like, this is the worst receiving crew they've had since 06, not

Gronk. You're trading, well, you cut Matthews. It was Matthews and Correll Patterson for Cooks and Amendola, which doesn't feel like a good or an upgrade. Well, Decker retired. And Decker retired yesterday or so. Edelman does come back. I'm going to miss Danny Amendola.

You know how much I love them. I was almost in tears talking about him during the playoff run. He's going to be great on the Dolphins, isn't he? Yeah, it hurts. No, he's not. It hurts. I just know he's not going to be great. I know he's going to be Ryan Tannehill throwing over his head.

Yeah. But this shapes up as a typical Pats. Everything's stacked against us, but we're still going to beat the crap out of everyone. Your first round draft pick's out for the year, right? And the second round, the running back they took is already hurt, and nobody knows when he's coming back. Who knows?

My dad is very, very, very, very upset about the Sonny Michelle, Lamar Jackson thing. He doesn't like it? Well, he wanted them to take Lamar Jackson. They traded down from the pick. Lamar Jackson would be your third-string receiver right now. I think he could do anything. I wish we had Lamar Jackson.

But, yeah, 5-1 in the division last year. Your over-under is 11. I would say pass on this. I think they're right around 11. I think it's a pass as well. 10-5 or 11. I would say pass on this. I think they're right around 11. I think it's a pass as well. 10-5 or 11-4 going into that last year. Here's the case for them going over. You could argue they have three of the five worst teams

in the entire league in their division. Sure. You could argue Miami, the Jets, and the Bills are in the bottom five along with maybe Arizona. Who else would you put? You said Miami? How many times can you say Miami? No, let's put them in there again.

The Browns. Did you say the Browns? I mean, I would. The Browns are getting some buzz, obviously from people who haven't watched Hard Knocks closely enough. I think one of the NFC East teams could be awful. I think Tampa, potentially.

Tampa, I think. Tampa, I'd put in those bottom three. But yeah, when we do the NFL wins poll, probably two of the teams that won't be taken are the AFC East teams. 30 teams get taken, two don't. We typically cross off and against all odds, a team like, we're like, all right, they're done.

Right. We wait. Should we just cross Tampa off now? It seems, well, we're going to get to them on your podcast. We'll get to it. The amount of bad juju floating around Tampa

is almost historic. They, their schedule, they play the NFC North and the AFC South. The AFC South is kind of a good draw. I'm not,

like Jacksonville, we'll get to them, but, you know, the people seem to think there's a little bit of regression. Houston offensive line is shaky.

Indianapolis with luck. So that's actually pretty good. As usual, I look at the – you always expect your team to have this monster schedule. Yeah. After you made the Super Bowl. Once again, the past, the schedule is kind of cream-puffy. It's supposed to be the second easiest schedule in terms of strength and schedule, but it seems tougher than normal.

But what's going to be funny is week three at Matt Patricia's Lions, week 10 at Mike Vrabel's Titans. That one I'm worried about a little bit. Yeah, but I think those are games you could get tripped up normally, but Belichick's not going to want to lose those. So if you had to bet over, under, or exactly

11, what would you bet? I have exactly 11. I have that as a pass. Can you bet that? I don't think you can. You can bet what place every team? I have exactly 11. I have that as a pass. Can you bet that? I don't think you can. You can bet like what place every team's going to come in. Like you don't have to bet just the Patriots coming first. You could bet like last year, I bet the Dolphins to come in second.

And it was even odds. I was like, bills are crap. Jets are crapper. And the Dolphins, I think, came tied for four. It was terrible. It would be fun if you could do... Yeah, the Dolphins were third., came tied for four. It was terrible. It would be fun if you could do... Yeah, the Dolphins were third. They were six and ten last year.

They were third, yeah. It'd be funny if you could do horse racing. Exactly. You could do win-play show for each division. Yeah. So who would your win-play show be for the AFCs? I'll find that. I'll find that for us.

I would go Pats one, Jets two. Man, Bills or Dolphins 3. I have Pats 1, Jets 2, Bills and Dolphins both at 5 and 11. Yeah. Well, usually when we agree on something, that's not a good sign. Yep. All right. I'm with you, but if I had to at gunpoint go over or under,

this is not the last time I'm going to use the phrase at gunpoint. At gunpoint, I would... Oh, don't say under. What are you talking about? I'd probably say under. Oh, come on. Brady's 41, and if he got hurt for whatever reason, I think they would really struggle to score points.

I'm also extremely concerned about Gronk, and I just think they tried to get him through the regular season last year without taking big hits. They very rarely sent him over the middle. They need him more this year, and I don't see them unleashing him. Right. But anyway. All right, let's go to Miami.

All right. Miami, for some reason, had the best out of the three teams with the odds. I was surprised. I thought the Jets would have the second best thing. Over under is 6.5. Action is minus 135, which means more people are betting over than under on it. Plus 375 to make the playoffs. Minus 550 not to make the playoffs,

which crossed that one off for a potential parlay, the minus 550. 11-1 to win the division. And for me, this one comes down to, are we sure Ryan Tannehill's even decent? Can you believe this is the seventh year of the Ryan Tannehill? Can you believe he's 30 years old? No, it's year seven of the Ryan Tannehill. He's 30 years old.

Yeah. And every year, like even he had good numbers. Tate, was it last year or the year before? Two years ago. Two years ago. Really good numbers. And yet Moore takes over and we're all like, yeah, that's fine. That's last year or the year before? Two years ago. It was two years ago. Really good numbers. And yet Moore takes over and we're all like, yeah, that's fine. That's

as good or better. We're like, oh, Matt Moore actually. He brings some other stuff. Right. I don't see it. I understand after watching Hard Knocks why they got rid of Jarvis Landry. I think it would be annoying to be around him for like three years. I like him. You don't like him? Bless him.

Bless him. It's like you have OCD with verbal OCD. Settle down. That pep talk was pretty good. Pep talk was good. It was almost like he knew there were cameras there. It seems like from a chemistry standpoint that was their big priority.

Adam Gase, who I think we all like Adam Gase as a coach, right? I think, yeah yeah for the most part yeah he's competent it seems like he clearly said we've got to change the locker room

this culture is not right I don't know what that means for their record but yeah and how much do you hold Jay Cutler against him last year

you know because he convinced him to bring Cutler in so give him 10 million dollars my answer is I hold it against him they had

the hurricane to contend with so that was a crappy way to start the season. Their offensive line coach got into trouble. Maybe it starts off better. But yeah, like I said, Amendola, Philandri, I don't think you're doing Tannehill any favors. I think their first three games are winnable.

It's Tennessee at the Jets and home against Oakland. But if I have to do anything, I'm going under 6.5. I think this is a 5-11 team. I'm going under as well with the caveat that you have to pick which AFC East team is going to sneak to 7-9, 8-8 because it's just bound to happen, maybe even 9-7. It's just bound to happen.

I have a pet peeve. Go ahead. I'm going to say this as diplomatically and sensitively as possible. I feel like for the last 12 years, we've had a hurricane week one NFL season, right? Like over and over again, we've had some and the game's either delayed or not. And it's terrible and it's an awful situation. Right. And it's always in like Carolina or Florida.

So you would think after watching this happen over and over again, the league would say, you know, maybe we'll schedule some road games. Now, Carolina-Miami home week one. It's like the league is just, they figure out all these new and improved ways to shove their own heads up their ass. For whatever reason, those two weeks have become these really dangerous hurricane weeks. Maybe you treat it like snow days in school. Like, all right, you just don't have to play that game. And hey, Rams, if it's 94 degrees in LA, you don't feel like playing, you get that day off too.

So Miami, I just don't see it. Let's go to Buffalo because I don't see it with them either. They're 14 to 1, plus 500 to make the playoffs. Their over-under is six wins, which is plus 145. So people are banging the under. And I really don't like their schedule. It's the first time of many times we're going to do this. They start out at Baltimore, home for the Chargers,

at Minnesota, at Green Bay, home Tennessee, at Houston, at Indy, home for New England on ESPN. That's the first eight weeks. Yeah, that's bad. That is brutal. They don't have their quarterback situation figured out. That feels like 0-8, 1-7 to me. Yeah.

Five of the first seven on the road, as you said. And yeah, they don't have the quarterback set. Ty Taylor is gone. I don't believe in Josh Allen. I know we're going to eat all words here, but I think out of all the new quarterbacks, he's going to be the least impressive of all of them. But I'll tell you what, the Bills screw me every year.

This time last year, they made two late preseason trades. It looked like they were folding up. It looked like this was going to be a rebuilding year, and they sneak into the playoffs in week 17. So that's the case for them, right? Last year was used as their rebuilding year. That was surprisingly good for them, and then now some of the payoffs should happen this year.

I just don't see it. And I would say they have a top five, bottom five quarterback situation. Their wide receivers are not good. I'm sorry. I don't trust Benjamin Tate. I don't love Zay Jones. No, there's no separation there, yeah.

McCoy could be in jail. You know. So that's interesting, right? LeSean McCoy, he has a possible suspension.oy could be in jail uh you know so that that's interesting right LeSean McCoy he has a possible suspension he could be out but he's supposed to play week one so then it's going to be the Zeke situation where you know every single week we don't know if he's going to suit up or play so if you're a team you know you don't know who you're going to have yeah exactly right they were one of those teams even last year when they were winning games that people were just kind of going how the hell is this happening?

It was like winning ugly for Sutter Friday. Wait a second, they won again? Their defense is very good. Their safeties are great. They swat balls. They tip balls. They pick it off. I think their past defense is like seventh in the league.

But that's really the only thing to get excited about with this Bills team, as far as I can see. There's an alternate world where their schedule is different, where I could have talked myself into, well, if they can just get to 3-3, then the schedule... But that schedule is a gauntlet and it's the worst possible thing that could happen. Yeah, six of their last nine are at home, but

they have to get to that point. Even a little subtle thing, like they don't play New England until Week 8 and then again Week 16. History has shown you want to catch the Pats early or late. But especially those first four weeks before... When are they home from? They have a week 16 like history has shown you want to catch the pats early or late but especially like those first four weeks before when are they home for them they have uh they're home on a monday night it's a monday night 29th yeah that's too early to two or an upset you want that game to be there

in september december and then they play the pats in uh week 16 i'm not seeing it now the jets i would go if we're talking about it, I can't believe. You go under on bills? Oh, under. Under six. I lean under. I would maybe say pass. I think they're 5-11, but they've killed me so many years in a row.

We don't have one that I would actually bet until this one. Jets over under six. Yeah. Nice line. Minus 110. So you're basically betting on 110 to win 100. They're 550 to make the playoffs. Plus 1500 to win the division,

which is basically Brady would have to get hurt in September. And then a couple other things would have to happen. 100 to 1. Brady, Hoyer, and the LSU guy would have to get hurt. Explain this to me, Sal. Miami, 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo, 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl Buffalo 150 to 1 to win the Super Bowl the Jets 100 to 1

better odds for the Jets who's betting the Jets who's out there putting money down on the Jets I think we'll learn that more New Yorkers travel to Vegas during the summer is that it? Is that what it is? It must be it must be. Tate the Jets are one of your 7 favorite teams would you bet on the Jets are one of your seven favorite teams. Would you bet

on the Jets at 101? Not to win the Super Bowl, no. But I do like Sam Darnold. I think Sam Darnold's a great right? If you're a Jets fan, you're very excited. That's the way to do it. It looks like they finally fucking lucked out with a draft. That's incredible. For sure. They got the maybe the best guy in the draft at three, which

usually the opposite happens for them. And by the way, Bridgewater, not signing with anyone else, wouldn't mind seeing him on the field. Amazing quarterback room. Yeah. Well, that's the thing. If you have two quality quarterbacks

who are at least competent in a league where a lot of the times these guys play eight to 13 games instead of 16. Yeah. I also really like their schedule. So let's go through this. So first of all, at Detroit, 7-10, the first Monday night game.

Refresh my memory here. Those games are always weird, right? Very strange. The 7 o'clock Monday night game, it's always fucking weird. And I don't like that Detroit team either. Your high school buddy is calling play-by-play. Yeah, it's just everything about it's wrong and some weird play happens or it's like a shutout

and we always overreact to whatever happened. So if they get through that Detroit game and they will be underdogs, then they have Miami at home the next week, at Cleveland, at Jacksonville, home for Denver, home for Indy. They're certainly not going to be double-digit underdogs in any of those games. All those games are winnable, and if they could come out of that

at 3-3 or 4-2, that's now the road to 8-8, 9-7. I'm not ready to call them a sleeper, but I think they're going to be a little bit better. They've been drafting in the top 10 forever. They have some good players. We've seen the dejected Jets fans in the top, you know. Forever. Top 10 forever. They have some good players. We've seen the dejected Jets fans in the crowd. No matter who they pick, they're already crying, slamming their fathers back.

Yeah. I think they have to go six and four to get to their last six. Like, they have two versus the Pats in their last six. They have the Packers and, I think, at the Titans. So it gets a little tough for them later on. But, yeah, let them hold on and they could be a sleeper. So we agree, out of those three teams, the Jets are the safest bet.

To go over? Yeah. Sure. Yeah, I think their seven or eight wins over six at minus 110 is good value, I think. Bills were nine and seven last year. Miami six and 10, Jets five and 11. So really, all you're doing is redistributing

those wins a little bit, and that makes a lot more sense. And Todd Bowles is on the hot seat too. I think he comes out of this. I would say it's more than a hot seat. It's more than hot? What is it? It's on fire.

It's like that Undertaker-Kane fire match. All right. Every time he lands on the floor, the flames go shooting up. I'm not really inspired by any of those. If I had to bet on one, I would bet on the Jets. Yeah. But then you're betting on the Jets, which I wouldn't recommend. In other words, congratulations to the Patriots once again.

Somehow we did it again. Division champs. So we might get nothing from the top two draft picks that does it better. Unbelievable. Pittsburgh, AFC North, they're the favorites. Minus 230 for the division. Minus 450 to make the playoffs.

Over under is 10.5 wins. Their schedule is a little tougher. They play the NFC South and the AFC West. Their extra games are the Patriots at home and at the Jags. You're bummed they're at home against the Patriots again. We're not afraid of Pittsburgh.

Wow. Yeah, we're not. That's not a team that's on my radar. Maybe after Brady retires, I'll be a little more afraid. Wow. Yeah. Shots fired again at Damoshek. You really want to get voted out.

We've been beating them for two decades. It's fine. Their schedule's hard. And that 10 and a half is like exactly, I looked at the schedule and then I went back and I was like, of course, 10 and a half is like the perfect. 10 or 11. 11 feels high, 10 feels low.

And usually their last game of the year is versus the Browns. So you could just add one to the total, but it's not this year, right? So here's the case for them to go over. First six games at Cleveland, home KC at Tampa, home Baltimore, home Atlanta at Cincinnati. Now, one of those games will be the Ben Roethlisberger takes a shit on the field game.

I don't know which one. Looking at those, which one would you go with? The one where they lose like 30 to 3. I mean, something stupid like at Denver or something. The defense steps up and they're not used to the traffic. No, that's much later. I'm looking at first six. Maybe home Baltimore and NBC. He's usually good on TV though.

Maybe that Atlanta game? They get sacked like 10 times. Maybe that's it. One of those will happen, but the ship will be righted and their division I think is also pretty weak. I'm going over here. I think it's more 11 or 12 wins.

According to Big Ben, they're going to be doing a lot more no huddle. I think there's going to be a lot of games where they're up 8-0 to start because they go for the two-point conversion. Yeah, they couldn't do that. Yeah, and teams are going to be out of it almost immediately. 6-0 in the division in 2017. That's probably not going to happen again for Big Ben and company. But they drafted another wide receiver.

There's James Washington. Smith Schuster's great. I know they lost Marty Bryant and obviously Antonio Brown. I just think there's too much offense there. It's way too much for the rest of the team. Their ability to find these receivers who weren't first-round receivers is one of the most spectacular kind of recurring things that I've ever seen. I did a thing on my pod last week about how the Pats have just,

over the years, ever since I was a kid, really struggled from the second to fourth rounds. I saw that second-round pitch. Terrible. And with Belichick, the best one was Deion Branch. Malcolm Mitchell had a cup of coffee where he was really helpful in the simple drive. For the most part, they've just missed. And Pittsburgh's had like seven guys this decade,

including Brown, who's probably the best receiver of the last five years. Not to mention all these other dudes. Emmanuel Sainer still kicking into Denver. I don't know how they do it. I don't know what they look for. I don't know what their science is of it, but I can't, I was thinking the same thing. I was like, wow, they got another one. Crazy. How do they do this? And I like Eli Rogers too. Oh, that's right.

He's still there. Yeah. He's still there. Yeah. The Jaguars scout should just follow the Steelers scout, right? Like a team that never has good receivers like that. Just,

yeah, this is just stay with this guy. Whenever he writes something down, you write something down as well. So the question, the biggest question is rothasberger when is it the old blues mobile joke from 40 years ago when does the blues mobile just completely collapse and the tires go flying and he just has one of those bodies that you know it's

not gonna end well yeah and we did this with peyton manning five years ago he came back in denver like this can't last. Then he throws for 5,000 yards. It's not going to happen again. Then all of a sudden it ended. And he had that one last year when he was awful. I don't know if this is the- It's like the 38-year-old center.

Yeah. He has it. It's a 36-year-old center. Or like a wrestler where it's like you watch Undertaker and you go, oh, man. I didn't realize. But that's fake. I don't know if it's- No, that's fake. You know that's like you watch Undertaker and you go, oh, man, I didn't realize. Right, but that's fake. I don't know if it's – No, that's fake.

You know that's fake. What? Yeah, yeah. Sorry. I'll talk to you afterward. I don't know if it's this year for Roethlisberger, but there were the signs. Mm-hmm.

I mean, this could be – I think some of these teams and the Steelers are one of them that look at – like the Mike Tomlins in year 11 is like, it's kind of got to be this year, right, in a way? Unless you like Rudolph or something like quarterback. You're going to start with that, but I don't know. I think Bell, Brown, Ben kind of has to be this year.

I'm going over for a few of the reasons we discussed, but also this Le'Veon Bell thing I think works in their favor. You had this happen with DeMarco Murray. Yeah. Where it's like, oh, this is your last year. We're running into the crowd. Right, exactly. So they're just going to run him into the ground.

And football is an awful sport. You're going to return punts, too. Yeah. Get back there. How about this? You're going to have 410 carries this year. And 11 wins just even I'm a little worried about the schedule. But somebody's going to be the one seed in the AFC,

and I'm not sure it's going to be the Pats. So who is it? Who'd you go with? Yeah, that's true. Who'd be your one seed pick? The one seed always wins 13 games or 12 games. And if it's not the Pats, who is it? It's either Pittsburgh or an AFC West team.

I have it in the – we can get to it, but I think it's the AFC West winner. If you hopped on that fucking bandwagon – Which one? We'll get there, but, think it's the AFC West winner. If you hopped on that fucking bandwagon, that is... Which one? We'll get there, but man, I'm going to be mad if you... I hate when you hop on bandwagons. So we both go over for Pittsburgh? Both over, yeah.

Have we had a team yet that you would have wagered on? I would say Pittsburgh, and like you, I think the Jets. Both over. Pittsburgh, to make the playoffs at minus 450 feels like something we're going to do and then Roethlisberger

will get hurt in like week three we do it every year I think we have Pittsburgh New England I don't think we've ever won that make the playoff it's always some shitty team

either kills us or some great team completely falls apart we'll let you know ahead of time who we have to make the playoffs you're not talking me into it this year

no what Sal does for the listeners at home Tate Sal will text me We'll let you know ahead of time who we have to make the playoffs. You're not talking me into it this year. No? What Sal does for the listeners at home, Tate, Sal will text me these parlays, and it'll come in all hours, and it'll be like 1.30 in the morning at bank. Yeah. Simmons, Pittsburgh minus 450, Pats minus 600, and Casey to make the playoffs. Lock it in.

Plus 110. Who blows this for us? Yeah. And I stare and I go, well, they're not blowing it. Damn it. You did it to me again.

And then somebody blows it for us. We blow it. We blow it by making the bet. We put our stink all over. Baltimore, who has been on its last legs now for five years, 40 to one to win the title, plus 400 for the division,

plus 145 for the playoffs over under 8 wins there's been action on the over minus 165 what am I missing? well let me ask you which three teams screw you the most in terms of betting for them?

Baltimore 1 A1 would have been always kills me it's gotta be 1 I think Detroit probably 2 Detroit's in there Tampa I was gonna say

Detroit oh Detroit yeah Detroit Baltimore, Detroit, Tampa I think Detroit. Tampa, probably two. Detroit's in there. Tampa, I was going to say. Detroit. Oh, Detroit, yeah. Detroit. Baltimore, Detroit, Tampa. I bet Detroit or Baltimore at home laying four, not a chance. Not a chance. But they'll win by 30 on the road against Cincinnati. A little Jacksonville, too.

Jacksonville certainly didn't treat us kindly last year. They're getting there. Yeah. I hate Detroit. The worst. I may not. You're going to hate them even more now with Patricia, because I know you have a. Well, now I just don't believe in Patricia.

To me, it's like the opposite of Jimmy G last year. Remember when I was betting Jimmy G every week? I'm going the other way with Patricia. I think he's a jackass. Yeah. So their schedule, Baltimore. Very tough. Very tough road.

I mean week two at Cincinnati home for Denver but then it goes at Pittsburgh at Cleveland at Tennessee

three weeks in a row home New Orleans at Carolina home for Pittsburgh yeah and I don't see them getting through that that feels like

three and six going into the bye week yeah their road games outside of division Carolina at Atlanta at Kansas City at Chargers

and at Tennessee. That's rough. That's rough. And they played the first two games in five days. They also have their fan base now. They've served their five years of the five-year grace period with Joe Flacco, where he won them the Super Bowl. And it's like they're disgruntled, they're grumbling,

but it hasn't turned into open disdain yet because there's the respect of the title, the deer antler spray tainted title. And now it's been five years. And now it's like the new hot blonde is right there, the second wife, Lamar Jackson. And you have this old wife that you just hate anymore and you're not sleeping together anymore and you're sleeping in the guest room and it's going to end.

I like this. Yeah, i hope they animate this somehow i'll get the ringer guys lamar jackson but it won't end right away and i think it's going to be a really like negative season where they're just going to want lamar jackson to play and flacco is not going to come out like gangbusters they're gonna be like hey startlet and it's just going to come out like gangbusters. They're going to be like, hey, start it. And it's just going to be a soap opera. The only thing I'll say, the potential upside is this is Ozzie Newsom's final year. So I don't know if that means the players step it up. John Harbaugh steps it up. But he already drafted that Hayden Hurst, the tight end in the first round, who's now hurt for a while. Weird pick when they did it, though, right?

Yeah, but it was an Ozzie Newsom. I think this is all an ode to Aussie Newsom, the tight end. But they do, I think, have their best wide receivers in six years. John Brown's out for a few weeks, but Crabtree and Snead, and they have long threats. But at eight wins,

they've screwed me so many times I would never go over and I would never go under. This is such a pass for me. I had Willie Snead. I drafted him in our Fantasy League last year. Yeah. And I kept him on our fantasy league last year. Yeah. And I kept him on my team for 10 weeks.

And it was just like keeping a cold sore on my lip. I don't think he caught more than four balls. And it was like the same offense, the same offense was exploding. Yeah. And it's like, as soon as he comes back, they'll throw him in. I got to.

So now it's, I keep hearing this thing. I've heard the same thing you just said about the receivers. Like they got Willie Sneed. It's like, I had Willie Sneed last year. He had three catches. I don't know. I keep hearing this thing. I've heard the same thing you just said about the receivers. Like they got Willie Steen. It's like, I had Willie Steen last year. He had three catches. I don't know. I don't see it.

I would go. Their defense is better than we think. Their past defense is ranked fourth. Although I think Jimmy Smith is out a few weeks. Yeah, four weeks. Four weeks. Seven and nine, you win that bet. What do you mean?

Under. Oh, under. Yeah. I lean under, but I can't bet for or against the Ravens. Let's just kick some of these teams out of our... Yeah, if it wasn't the Ravens, I would be all in on the under, but I just know they'll F me over somehow. By the way, the over is minus 165, right?

Yeah. Yeah, because people know with the Ravens. You want to go under there. Cincinnati is 90 to 1 to win the title, plus 750 for the division, plus 400 for the playoffs, over under six and a half wins, which is minus 160 for some reason. They finally got rid of Marvin Lewis. They have a new – oh, no, it's Marvin Lewis.

He's still the coach. What's happening? It's the same. How is he still here? I thought they just hired someone with the same name. That's the same guy? He's won the first coach fired and hired bets at the same time i don't understand it i can't believe they they ran the band back yeah dalton have you seen dalton

this year it's always connecting long no he's got like have you seen him tate he's got some sort of like cool punk punk rock thing going he's trying he's really trying we're happy for him he's wearing kind of funky clothes and he's got some cool haircut now. He looks cool. He loves the Bills, too. They gave him a standing ovation. I was going to say, because they donated to some charity, and he's showing up to events and everything.

And he got him to the playoffs. Yeah, right. Led him to the playoffs. It's a weird thing. Tatum, I'm glad you brought this up. That seems like the natural solution here with this whole thing. You trade Andy Dalton to the Bills. To anybody.

For AJ McCarron and something else. And Andy Dalton gets to go home the one place that's really loved him, the Buffalo. I love that they trade him for McCarron. They held on to McCarron forever for no reason. And then they let him go

and now he's going to come back. People like their receivers. Yeah, they had a lot of injuries in 17. It'll be interesting to see Boyd and Ross and AJ Green play together. So that could be good, but I don't know. I was surprised. I was surprised that Baltimore was considered

to be the consensus second place team and Cincy was considered the consensus third place. I just think Cincy has more talent and I'd be surprised if they finished behind Baltimore. This is my surprise-ish team. Over six and a half is, I think it's hefty big.

It's minus one, what is it? Is it minus 160 or something? Yeah. I don't know. But I would go over. I think this could be a playoff team. I think they get to nine wins. So those first five weeks, they'd have to basically go like three and two, four and

one for it to happen. Nothing conceivable. They got Indy in week one. Well, three of their last four on the road, three of their first four on the road. So that means right in the middle, they'll have a nice home stretch. Which of their skill guys is most likely to be on your fantasy team? Maybe Tyler Eifert. Okay.

I don't know. Only because AJ Green's going to cost too much. Yeah. I don't know. Only because A.J. Green's going to cost too much. Yeah. I don't know. What would you say? I mean, Ross got that. I think John Ross is, I see the bidding in our fantasy auction for him just because he had that one unbelievable highlight last weekend.

Yeah. He does look good, though. It's fun. He made the most of that touchdown. Marvin Lewis, though. You know, so the case for this would be the Bengals actually become a playoff team. And then we get lectured by people on TV and like Peter King's column about this is why you don't get rid of a coach. Right.

These things take time. It's like, yeah, these things, we're not arguing that these things take time, but he's been here for 14 years. This is different. He should have gone by now. Yeah. I don't know. They had their thing where they played the Texans every year in the first round, the very first Saturday game. The shakiest

pizza classic. The shakiest pizza classic. The T.J. Yates classic. The T.J. Yates. And they win that game, and now we don't even get that from them. But I will say, this has got to be plus 350 to make the playoffs. One of the got to be plus 350 to make the playoffs. One of the Bengals ever plus 350 to make the playoffs.

I'd take a flyer on that. Here's the thing. I checked. I know this is true. We need six AFC playoff teams. Yeah. Oh, really? That's the rule?

So that's a rule that they kept for this year. There's going to be six. Oh, wow. All right. And every year there's a sixth AFC playoff team, and we can't believe they're in the playoffs. And's going to be six. Oh, wow. All right. And every year, there's a sixth AFC playoff team and we can't believe they're in the playoffs. And we're going to finish these teams

and the listeners are going to go, wow, Cincinnati slash Baltimore slash the Jets slash Oakland. Somebody's going to nine and seven to make the playoffs and we're going to be in disbelief. I think Cincy and the Jets are two of the better bets. That'll be fun.

I'm going over. I like it. I like them. I don't love the minus one 60, but I like the over for it. And perfect is out the first four games. And then he's coming back. Right.

Perfect strangers on hiatus. Yes. Strangers. It'd be good to have him back. He's learned his lesson. Good for the NFL. We needed him. He became a NFL. After 19 suspensions. We needed him.

He became a pastor, I think, in the offseason. Cleveland is getting a hilarious amount of action. Come on. Their title odds are down to 75 to 1. Who is betting that? Who's betting the Browns to win the title? Who's doing that? Bobby Carpenter was on my podcast of a former Ohio State Buckeye great, Dallas Cowboy,

but he said that the Browns to win the division were 10-1, and that Hugh Jackson to win coach of the year is 40-1. So if you at all like the Browns to win the division, which no one should ever like the Browns to win the division, take Hugh Jackson, because he would win. He would have to win coach of the year if they won the division. But what's

more likely is that they'll go 4-12. I'm trying to think what I would hire Hugh Jackson for after watching these first three Hard Knocks episodes. Would you hire him to screen grab the NFL schedules and put it on your iPad? I should have. I didn't think of that. No.

I wouldn't even have him do that. Sal, this is my seat. I'm in charge. Oh, boy. When you're in charge, when you're in this seat, you can make those kind of decisions. But right now, this is my seat. I'm in charge. Oh, boy. When you're in charge, when you're in this seat, you can make those kind of decisions. But right now, this is my seat. It is.

When we're running your podcast and it's your seat, you can decide the order. But right now, this is my order. Right. What a loser. Who leads people like that? You're 1 in 31. God.

You could have your seat for three more weeks. Todd Haley's just like, oh, my God, I'm in hell. Right. And Greg Williams is like, I deserve this. I did this to myself. Like Haley's just like, oh my God, I'm in hell. Right. And Greg Williams is like, I deserve this. I did this to myself. Like he's accepting of it. I like the new,

the new feature guy, the obese offensive line coach. I love that guy. He's against stretch. What a belly. Let him take, could he be the interim coach once they,

once they ax you? You know, you know, he's one of those dudes that's naked in the locker room a lot too and they're editing out, but he just seems like

he's letting it fly at all times. They shouldn't edit that out. That should be the last frame we see on Hard Knocks next week. You wouldn't see his dick. His belly would hang over it. It comes up with nudity before the episode. Right. I'd look for it.

It would not be one of the 10 worst things that's ever been on HBO. We've seen, I mean, we had the red wedding. Don't be so hard on yourself. Cleveland over under five and a half wins. So that went to six in some shops and only because of hard knocks. What are you people doing? I know. We've seen this how many times before? You guys are so dumb.

Right. They went 4-0 in the preseason last year. And if you look at it, Hugh Jackson had a lot of the same quotes. It's a different team this year it's different chemistry you can feel it everything feels different this team's ready to win it's like he's a fucking used car salesman get out of here

so what's the best case scenario for them Tyrod or Tyrod Taylor starts things off or Baker are you of the are you of the school that if they're absolutely even the veteran starts or the new guy? They should start Taylor. Taylor starts. Yeah, I would

I was looking at that actually. I think the right time for Mayfield if they're going to do it would be the week five. They have a home game against Baltimore and a home game against the Chargers. And maybe that home game against Baltimore is when you do it. And you figure they're one and three or 2-2 then?

Because I think they lose their first two. They're Pittsburgh and at New Orleans to start. I have a prediction for them. This is a prediction I've never made in any of these podcasts we've done. And I don't know what this is. This is a certain type of team, but maybe we could call it the Memorial Chargers team of the year. It might actually be the Chargers.

Because actually the Browns are talented. They've been picking so many blue chippers at this point. By accident, they just have a bunch of talented players. Landry's good. Landry Gordon is a top 10, 12 receiving crew, right? Their coaches are awful. And it seems like this is a season like what the Chargers had last year, where they should go 11-5 but they go

7-9 or 8-8 or even 4-12 like whatever the final total is is going to be 4-8 wins lower than it should be and they're going to be in these games and like let's go back to Cleveland where the Browns were up by 20 what happened and it's

going to be a lot of that and I think they just shoot themselves in the foot all year. You know why? Because they're losers. They really are. They are. They lost every close game last year. They lose in overtime by six. From a gambler's perspective, getting four and a half. No matter any way you turn, they were going to screw you.

Well, they also get penalties. Even in the preseason, they had that whole hard knocks game where it's just penalty after penalty. And then the coach walking around going, we got to do something about these penalties. We need some discipline around here. It's like, yeah, you're the fucking coach.

Yeah, that's you. You're the person who gives the discipline. It's your job. Oh, these penalties. What are we doing, guys? It's like, yeah. As it is now, just actually talking, forget about emotion. Their past defense is ranked 30th.

It's not going to be pretty again this year. And guess what? Josh Gordon has been good in four years. I hate to break it to people, but this isn't like he was captured by an alien spaceship and then he was successfully saved. He wasn't in the room in the basement for four years. He's had real issues and there's no sign he can play four games in a row.

Yeah, right. He just doesn't want to play for this. I don't blame him. no sign he can play four games in a row. Yeah, right. He just doesn't want to play for this. I don't blame him. He just wants to play two games a year. I do like Landry, and I do wish that the Pats had gotten him somehow. Yeah, I'm surprised he didn't end up on the team. He feels like a very Brady kind of just open. 300 receptions a year.

Oh, my God. Yeah. The over's five and a half. To me, it's a stay away, but I would actually go under. I think he's a disaster. I have them at five. Five and 11. I'm leaning under.

I think Hard Knocks, really. When is anyone going to look? The last three Hard Knocks teams regressed. I don't know if you know this. This one can't regress because they have zero wins. But just the way they edit it, and you would think the tight end nijoku was is like one of the best like you think he's uh or that guy juice yeah the juice juice is like uh they're trying to turn him into something like won't make the team or something but yeah it's weird the way they edit it together and we fall for it

every it has been the best hard knocks in a long time a lot of characters a lot of great characters he he's been great. So many moments of just like, wow, how is he a coach? To me, when he breaks the news to his assistant coaches

and they're breaking down game footage, he breaks the news to his assistant coaches that his mother passed away. Yeah, that's sad. And they barely turn back to acknowledge him.

They barely turn back and they're looking at game footage. That was weird. And then he's like, okay, let's keep going with the game. I'm like,

what goes on? Like every facet of this organization is remarkable and and how it'll surprise you you watch hard knocks and you have a feeling like todd haley greg williams the pot bellied guy and like the special teams coach right they're like hey man let's let's meet at 9 30 at that place and just try to figure out how to get through the season. And then they go and they just bitch about Hugh Jackson for like two and a half hours. Like, oh man, he sent me this text yesterday. He's telling me to do this.

I was like, yeah, I already did that three days ago. So anyway. They should have introduced the confessional, you know, like from real world. Yeah, so they have all the guys and just like Todd Haley and he has a confessional. And it's like, we show the scene where like, he's like, Josh Gordon's coming back. And he's like, is he in shape?

Yeah. Right. And he's like, I don't understand why our head coach isn't worried about this guy being in shape. You know? Yeah. It was so funny when, when the running back coach rightly brings up, Hey, you know, uh, I, I know he's injured, but I want him out there.

Like we're, we got to instill some toughness. Sure. And Hugh just takes complete umbrage. Flip that. When you're in this seat, you can make that call, but right now it's my call. It's like, he's actually making a great point. Your team makes a lot of penalties and isn't tough and

everybody misses games. They do such weird stuff with the Browns. They're always like, who was it? Callaway is the rookie? He got busted for he had dope in his car in Marijuana. Didn't tell him. It doesn't tell him. That's great. And then his punishment is he has to play the whole game.

Yeah. Your punishment is you have to play for the Cleveland Browns every offensive play. And that'll make you think twice about smoking grass, buddy. That's how they punish people. We did that. My son, he stole money from my wife the other day. Oh, is this true? And our punishment was we made him play Fortnite for 18 hours.

No, we didn't do this. That did not happen. It's ridiculous. I want to do this. What do you think of this idea? Because I love Ray Donovan. What's his name? Liev Schreiber.

Liev Schreiber. Liev Schreiber. The Emmy winner, Liev Schreiber. The narrator of Hard Knocks. I loved him narrating. I think he'd do a better job as coaching the Browns. Let Hugh Jackson narrate one year and let Lave Schreiber coach the Browns. Des Bryant's here.

Yeah, right. Des Bryant couldn't get open for the last two years at Dallas. No separation at all. Here he is. Let's take one more break. Hey, all this gambling talk makes me think we should probably talk about gambling sites. What about MyBookie?

People always ask for advice. Usually it's what team to bet on this week or me and Sal's case, what team not to bet on because we've been wrong so often lately. This year it's changing though. 2018 is going to be here. The truth is we don't know who's going to win all the time.

But if you think you know, you got to check out MyBookie. They're your best bet this season. They've been in business for years. Great reviews online, mobile site, easy to use, not to mention in-game live betting, the most rewarding player perks in the business. Plus for you fantasy guys out there, you can even bet the over-under on how many fantasy points a player will score each game. Lay down some cash, win big today. You win, they pay. Join now. My bookie will match your deposit dollar for dollar. Use the promo code Bill Simmons when creating your account to claim up to $1,000 in free play. That is M-Y bookie, B-O-O-K-I-E. Don't forget to use the promo code

Bill Simmons when creating your account to claim the bonus. You play, you win, you get paid. All right, we're going to the AFC South, and a team that actually might be a little bit undervalued for reasons that I'm not entirely clear on, Jacksonville Jaguars, 18-1 to win the title, plus 175 for the division, minus 155 to make the playoffs. Over, under under nine wins. And some caveats, their schedule this year,

they played the NFC East and the AFC East. Eight games against, I'm sorry. Yeah, eight games against those teams. And six of those eight teams might be bad. Yeah. There's a chance that three of the NFC East teams are not going to be good. And there's a really good chance that three of the AFC East teams are going to be bad. There's a chance that three of the NFC East teams are not going to be good. And there's a really good chance that three of the AFC East

teams are going to be good. They play home for New England at Kansas City, home for Philly, home for Pittsburgh at Tennessee. Those are their five toughest games. And then a lot of cream puff games along the way. I don't understand this

one, Sal. I actually think they should have beaten the Patriots in the AFC title game. They blew it in the fourth quarter. Why is it only nine? I think they do this. I don't know why it's only nine. All right, so they play a first-place schedule, even though, like you said, the NFC East and AFC East

could be lame. But versus Pittsburgh and at Kansas City. And then London game against Philly, week eight. Which is like London, you throw it out. Weird shit happens. Well, they're the home team in London. They're the home team. Oh, yeah, but we got Sir Blake Bortles.

That's a win. Right. Yeah, locked that one in. I didn't think it was possible. Bortles has fewer weapons this year. Well, the Marquise Lee thing hurt. How is it? Like, Marquise Lee going down in late August,

like, that's huge news. That really might set them back, like, a game and a half because Marquise Lee on any other team, it's okay if he goes down. The counter to that, though, is they didn't really rely on throwing the ball that much anyway. It was like a win 17 to 13 running game defense team.

And I was actually excited about Safarian Jenkins, but then if you look at his stats, because, you know, Patriots, was it a touchdown? Wasn't it? It seems like he sniffed the end zone more times than not, but his, like, yards after catch is one of the worst in the league for a tight end. I don't know. I had him in fantasy,

and it did seem like he had a lot of touchdowns called back. Right. Oh, for sure. For sure. Yeah, one of them you liked especially. But Fournette was a racehorse. Do they feed him again? Is that going to work the same way? You mean feed him food? Yeah, are they going to feed him food?

What do they feed these guys before the game? Well, when you think about it, though, their division's not really that good either. Three straight divisions we haven't really liked that much. But you have two quarterbacks coming back, and one of them's going to do good things for their team. Watson? Watson and Luck.

So they didn't have that last year. Everyone says Houston's offensive line is in the top three worst in the league that we have, and that Watson's going to be running for his life. Considering he just blew out his knee. No, I'm not against the Houston. I don't really have a feel for that one, but it does worry me that he's coming off major knee surgery

and has no offensive line, and people are like, Houston, watch out for them. It's like they can't block. What am I watching out for? Yeah, we saw that with Indomitian Sioux, right? He blew up Deshaun in that preseason game, so he's already taken a big hit. That makes me nervous.

I have one more thing i can't believe i'm saying this what is it bordles really got some high level awesome reps last year played in three playoff games yeah he looked the patriots right in the eye and kind of went toe-to-toe with them for three quarters. Then the fourth quarter, they really didn't want to do anything that would make him kind of ruin the game for them. I just think he's going to be better this year. I think it went from last year, all we heard all season was, oh, my God, if they can only get through Blake Bortles. But he actually was pretty good for them, and now he's actually going to be more confident.

How many times have we said how psyched you were to bet against Blake Bortles. But he actually was pretty good for them and now he's actually going to be more confident. How many times have we said how psyched you to bet against Blake Bortles in the playoffs? Guess what? We lost lots of money betting against Blake Bortles. But I don't think this is a weak division. I think even last year Jags were a few plays away from making the Super Bowl. Tennessee won

a playoff game. So that's the other team. And then Houston and the Colts with Luck and Watson, one of them should be better, right? Compete. I'm going over for this one. I think this is the first one I would bet. Wow.

All right. I'm going. This is a pass for me. I think it's right at nine and seven. I was really impressed by the Jags in those last two playoffs, the Steelers game and the Pats game. Those are the best two teams in the AFC, and they dominated Pittsburgh.

They might be made for the regular season. And like Ramsey, you look at their past defense, like Ramsey and Bouye, I think it was like quarterbacks had a 36 rating against them last year. Their run defense is like ranked seventh. Excellent. We know the formula. I think Bortles needs to, I think there has to be a passing game

to win the big playoff game when they need to. Well, we're not arguing that. We're arguing nine wins. That's right. All right. And the other thing that I like about this compared to what's going on with an AFC West team we're going to talk about in a second, there's a little nobody believes in us here.

Right. Like they basically had the Super Bowl trip in their hands. They messed it up. And now everybody's like, you guys suck. You're out. You're not even going to win 10 games. Like you can build it up. And now everybody's like, you guys suck. You're out. You're not even going to win 10 games. Yeah. Like, you can build on that.

And you can be like, nobody believes in us. I just like it. I think Jacksonville. I'm in on them. All right. Houston, 18-1 plus 185. Over-unders, 8.5 wins. They play that same NFC East, AFC East thing.

And the schedule's kind of all over the place. What I don't like is it starts with at new England at Tennessee home for the giants who are one of those wild card. I have no idea what to expect from them teams. And then at Indy. And that's their first four with like Watson coming back from surgery and this offensive line that everybody thinks is going to be bad. I don't like it.

They have the easiest strength of schedule in the league. I'm just saying those first four, the season could get away from them early. Could be the only four early. Six games versus teams with five wins or fewer. And I like this team over. I really do. Really? I know that's a hefty minus 155.

So you think they go 9-7? I think they get to 10-6. Give me the case. I think they added Tyron Matthew on defense. Obviously, Watt and Morsellis are back. That offensive line is bad. They gave up 54 sacks in 2017. And it's worse this year, apparently.

But I think it's going to be like Steelers territory where they could put up like 38 to 41 a game and then you have to match that. Really? Yeah. I do. Oh, do you remember how spectacular he was? So you're getting a big Will Fuller season you're predicting. Yeah. I think so. Although I think he's starting out injured. Yeah, I think he's probably

week one. Is he playing? Yeah. He and Sammy Coates, same thing. I would say over under for him is eight and a half games. Tate, be the tiebreaker. Houston. I like Houston. I think Houston's my, that's my pick to win that division, actually. Really?

Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, Jalen Ramsey, I hope he doesn't hear this, or he's going to call us out and say some things. He has a problem. One and five in the division last year. I think at least three and three. Well, it did feel like last year,

if Watson going down kind of changed the course of that division in a lot of ways. And then the storm and everything. It was just going to be... Yeah, that was like the year from hell for them. And Romeo Cornell is resuming play calling duties on defense. I'm going under.

I'm going under for them because I like this other team more. I like Tennessee more. Tennessee, 8 wins is the over slash under, minus 115. Division plus 325. Make the playoffs plus 155. You weren't a malarkey guy. Was not a malarkey guy. I thought they underachieved the whole year.

I thought they were very poorly coached. And I'm actually, I think Mike Vrabel was the former Pats assistant to get. I think he's way closer to Belichick than Matt Patricia was. Wow. Interesting. And I like how he spent the last couple years kind of leading to get into big gig. But he was one of those guys at the Pats, was like a top three or four most respected veteran, super smart. And I just like everything he's done.

I like that there was a good nucleus in place that underachieved, but now we've improved the coach. And I also think Mariota, I don't want this to come back to haunt me, but I don't know. I saw enough last year that I could see them going 10 and 6. It's an impressive game against the Chiefs. Yeah. He really was good in that game. Yeah, that second half.

I'm really looking forward to that. What is that? Week 10 against the Patriots? Vrabel, Butler, Malcolm Butler, and Deion Lewis. That's fun on this team. Well, that's the other thing. They have Derrick Henry, but then Deion Lewis was the best Patriot in the regular season.

He literally was the best player on the team in November. The Pats let him go because they don't believe in the regular season. He literally was the best player on the team in November. The Pats let him go because they don't believe in paying running backs. And that doesn't usually translate. Garrett Blount didn't light it up after he left and all these guys that do well for the Patriots. Blount was good last year though. He's a good goal linebacker.

He's pretty good for Philly. I think Lewis is going to be really, really good for them. The thing is they were 5-1 in the division last year. I just think stuff like that levels off when teams are good like this. Davis? The receiver, do we believe in him? I mean, you talk about anyone who's had a fantasy

who just hates that guy. Right? Tate, you like Tore Davis? He's only been in the league like two years. Everybody hates his guts. Yeah, they expect big things. So first four, they go at Miami, home Houston, at Jacksonville, home Philly.

And we'll know a lot more after those first four. I'm a believer, though. I'm going over, and I think this is a bet for me, too. Run defense is solid. I think they gave up like 87 yards a game. That Rashawn Evans is a nice first-round pick defense. But I'm passing here. I say 7-9. Iround pick defense, but I'm passing here. I say 7-9.

I lean on there, but I'm going to pass. They have a fun last five. Home Jets, home Jacksonville, at Giants, home Washington, home Indy. Three night games, so the league is taking them seriously. I like them. And London. Last one, a team I do not like. Indianapolis.

The over-under is 6.5. I mean, honestly, this is a stay away because you're just basically, you have no idea if luck's going to be healthy or not. Division plus 550. Pretty good odds for the fourth best team in the division. You're right. Out of the first three divisions we've done, this is the third. This is the first best division.

Yeah. From a talent standpoint, up and down. Over-under 6. a half minus 170 they have a new coach frank rake weird as from a new coach standpoint because i feel like he's been retired for 20 plus years yeah this is his first gig respected oc tate what do you feel about frank rake he's good there's a good hire i mean especially after mcdaniel's you know kind of left him at the altar it was nice for them to find someone that was a winner, right?

Well, what are they supposed to do? And your band of idiots screwed him over there. They had like three days to hire a coach. Deflate gate redemption, right? That's why he did it. Why did McDaniels... Yeah, he did.

He was sticking it to him. Yeah, smart. Why did McDaniels screw him over, though? Why do I think he did? Yeah. Do you think it was like set like this way from the start or did Pelichek step in? I think he was worried Yeah. Do you think it was set this way from the start, or did Pelichek step in?

I think he was worried about luck. You think so? I do. You don't think someone got in his ear and said, look, I promise you, Billy's on his way out? No, I think he saw it. It was almost like when the Celtics mysteriously, randomly, all of a sudden traded Markel Fultz.

It's like, wow, that's weird. They're going to take him. What happened? Right. A bunch of weird stuff. Well, what he should be worried about is the number 32-ranked Markel Fultz. It's like, wow, that's weird. They're going to take him. What happened? Right. A bunch of weird stuff. Well, what he should be worried about is the number 32 ranked pass defense and number 29 ranked run defense. Like, I don't even know if the Andrew Luck thing matters.

Of course, he's going to be better than Brissette. But that defense is really bad. Their skill position guys are pretty weak. Yeah. Like, their second wide receiver is Ryan Grant, I think. And not even the Ryan Grant, the good Ryan Grant that people know. The other not as good Ryan Grant.

It's Hilton. And like, yeah, why wouldn't Dez? Why wouldn't they sign Dez? Like, luck would be able to handle him. Also, how is Marlon Mack your lead running back in this day and age where everybody has seven running backs? I don't know if he is anymore.

Who is it? That Naheem Hines or something? Yeah, out of NC State. You think he's going to win the starter now? No, it actually is. It's Christine Michael, I think, because they're a starter. Oh, my God.

I think he's first in the depth. I think they're going to be awful. It's never good when Deion Kane got hurt in that preseason game and people were talking about him. He's a six-round pick. Yeah. That's a problem for losing.

He's like, oh, my God. They lost a six-rounder. One thing I like is their tight ends, like Ebron and Doyle, but they invested in their whole line. But I would go under. I think this is a five win team and the overs minus 170, you can get some odds on that. I love the under. We forgot to mention their batshit crazy owner.

Yeah. Jim Irsay. He'll do something. Well, that's why I didn't, that's why I can't believe he won't sign Dez. Like there's a hole there and he, and he's got his demons. Wow. I think that's a borderline bet for me. I know you don't want to do the no playoff thing,

but they're minus 325. If we could just find one other team right in there. Oh, you motherfucker. Come on. You're going to do this to me. Come on. Minus 325? They're going to be 5 and 9.

Why is that so low? Going into week 16, we're at 15. So we could do Pats minus 600, Steelers minus 450. Wrap it up. Who screws us?

Nobody. Put me in. Oh my God. And then you email me in December, hey, so we're going to lose a thousand each on the,

you know, because Indy's going to make the playoffs. Like what? We did that? Andrew Lux gets ripped for 5,500 yards. Yeah. Wow. What a division.

Who would you do win-place show for that division? I go Houston win, Jacksonville place, Tennessee show. I go Jacksonville win, Tennessee place, Houston show. We didn't do the other division. Who would you do for AFC North? Who did I have? Pittsburgh win, Cincinnati place, Baltimore show. We didn't do the other division. Who'd you do for AFC North? Who did I have? Pittsburgh wins, Cincinnati plays Baltimore show. Cleveland, no show.

Cleveland, paradox. Cleveland, sideshow. All right, the AFC West. This is the most fun of these divisions because you can really make cases. Yeah. I wonder what you can really make cases. Yeah. I wonder what you're worried about me taking here. What's the bandwagon pick?

Well, we saw it last year. I even got roped into it a little bit with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The hyped contender who hasn't done jack shit. Right. And now we have the LA Chargers, who people have going to the Super Bowl and who have a top four fantasy defense and all of these weapons and bad luck in close games and if the field goal kicker and um all this stuff and they almost made the playoffs and could have and then they blew it

uh they almost rallied back from this big hole they put themselves in um so much hype for a team that's done jack shit i actually think this is really bad for them for the chargers yeah yeah they were sloppy last year the reason they make the playoffs is they were sloppy they screwed up on special teams they had dumb penalties they're poorly coached well but the kicker too they were one kicker special teams coaching all they could change the special teams a little bit they still have the same coach right they still have the same quarterback who makes crazy throws in the last four minutes of games they should make.

And I don't know how we arrived at them being a Super Bowl contender. They arguably had the worst luck preseason, right, Tate? Like, Verrett's out. Jalen Watkins is out in the secondary. That's the thing. They've already had the bad juju in the preseason. And Bosa, right?

They lost both tight ends. Bosa has like a foot injury that's lingering. Yeah, there's a bunch of guys. Plus 120 not to make the playoffs. Over under 9.5 wins. Minus 120. That's high, 9.5. Division is plus 150 to win it.

They're 16-1 to win the title. I'm just stupefied by all of this. We forgot to mention they play in LA. They have no home field advantage whatsoever. They had to use a silent snap count playing some of these teams. Now, some of the teams they have coming in there at Buffalo, I'm sorry, Kansas City's coming in. We saw that last year, a ton of Chiefs fans.

San Francisco, they'll be flooded with Niner fans. The Raiders will take over the stadium. Tennessee will be easy. Broncos, a ton of Chiefs fans. San Francisco, they'll be flooded with Niner fans. The Raiders will take over the stadium. Tennessee will be easy. Broncos, ton of Broncos fans. Cardinals will be easy. Bengals will be easy. Ravens. So four of those games, they'll have less fans than the Reds.

Well, what's interesting is they go a month without playing at home. They have like two weeks and then a bye and then another week. And that's not including the games at home where they're not at home. Yeah. So it will seem lonely, I think, for them. Yeah, that's true. They go from October 7th all the way through November 18th without a home game.

That said, I think I could see them going like 6-1 or 5-2 before that bye. If you look at those games. Yeah, I circled their home KC at Buffalo at the chart. Rams. Oh, at the Rams, the first three. So if they somehow get out of there two and one, then the next four is home San Fran, home Oakland, at Cleveland, home Tennessee.

Tennessee and London, yep. That feels like they should be five and two, but they'll be three and four. Yeah, right, right. And be like, wow, Phil Rivers, if he just had thrown it to the safety in the end zone, they'd win that game. But maybe too many points again.

Maybe the offense is just too good. If Allen and Williams and Benjamin, like all these guys are healthy. Yeah, Gordon. They play the Chiefs twice. They play the Rams. They play at Pittsburgh. And they're at Denver, obviously, because they have to do that. At Oakland, they're also at Seattle, which we're going to get to on your podcast.

People have just crossed off Seattle completely, which is a little weird. I like them for 10. I go over. I think they get to 10 or 11. I wouldn't go under because I want to root for them. You want to root for this team. When they were out ousted from the playoffs last year, this is the one team I'd rather see than any

other six seed in the AFC and a good kicker could maybe make the difference they got Sturgis Caleb Sturgis so that's who it is this week yep I like the Chiefs more yeah I think I might like the Broncos more really

we'll get to them in a second the case though is could we have three 10 and six teams in this division? We've seen it happen year after year. At least one division. Yeah, the double digit teams.

Could have two 11 and fives and a nine and seven. That might be enough. Tate, your thoughts? Yeah, I just think the Broncos are going to get run over in that division. I really do.

So I think those three teams I like the Chiefs and I like the Chargers. That's tough. The Chiefs, are we doing the Chiefs now? Because they're my number one seed. And I don't know why they're over on those eight and a half. I guess it's asking a lot of Mahomes. But I think by accident this team is going to win like seven or eight games and then he's going to win like three or four more for him.

And I'm not just going off of that long bomb that we all saw in preseason. I think he's solid. I like Mahomes as well. The Chiefs are eight and a half wins. Even money to go over, make the playoffs, plus 115. Yeah. The division, plus 265. Right.

They have first two weeks, they go at Chargers, at Steelers. And then week five, home Jacksonville. Week six, at New England. So not easy the first six, but then it gets super easy the rest of the way. I got to say, I circled from week seven to week 17, Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland, Arizona. They have a tough at Rams game. Then Oakland, Baltimore, Chargers, Seattle, Oakland. It's just not a hard schedule.

No. And I'm with you. I'm a Mahomes believer. I like everything I've read. I like what I've read about how his teammates are talking about him. I like his throws. I thought he looked good in the game last year. I'm in.

And I think they needed some fresh blood. I think the Alex Smith thing, who was really good for them, took a lot of shit, but was really good. I think they needed some fresh blood. I think the Alex Smith thing who was really good for them took a lot of shit, but was really good. I think it ran its course. Only going to take them so far. And I like that everybody's picking the Chargers. And how about that you have a running back who could bail out a new quarterback? Like Kareem Hunt had, I think, 1,800 yards

from scrimmage. That's huge. And you got a dynamite tight end. They're going to be okay. I don't think Mahomes is a downgrade by any stretch of the imagination. And you talk about the defense. Eric Berry comes back. And we know how this team's a different team with Eric Berry. And you talked about the week 7 to week 17.

You like that schedule. They always start out hot. They usually taper off. So if they start out hot again and have a weaker schedule. He's unbelievable, Eric Berry. Eric Berry's another one. The guys when they lecture us. Yeah, right, right, right.

People don't understand how good Eric Berry really is. It's like, why are you yelling at me? Yeah, Eric Berry. Eric Berry's another one, the guys when they lecture us. Yeah, right, right, right. People don't understand how good Eric Berry really is. It's like, why are you yelling at me? Yeah, I know. I'm right here. I'm just watching television. Again, I know. Cancer, ACL, Achilles. Yeah, he's a good lecture guy.

Yeah, so the Chargers are nine and a half wins over, and the Chiefs are eight and a half wins over. And I am just, I'm confused. I'm all in for loading up on them Chiefs. Under is minus, right? Like for the Chiefs, what is it? Then they're like, yeah, they lost Marcus Peters. Like, yeah, he's a lunatic.

Maybe that's a good thing they lost him. You don't have to deal with him anymore. Yeah, they are losing some leaders there. Alex Smith, like Tom Bally and Marcus Peters. Marcus Peters is a leader for what? For having security guards escort him off the field? Yeah. But they have Watkins, right?

They have some nice threats. I think they're going to be all right. I'm tainted on Sammy Watkins because he's burned me in so many different ways. But that was the one I was like, damn it, why'd they sign him? Right. I'm not a believer. Yeah. He runs a great straight line.

All right. So now Denver? I got Oakland next. All right. Over under eight wins. Oh, my God. What are people doing? This is an under, right?

Make the playoffs plus 155. Not make the playoffs minus 190. File that one away. I thought, I didn't think they were very talented last year. Then Gruden came in. He blew up everything in the front office. They had complained about everything. Got rid of a bunch of people.

He's trying to bring in his own people. Hasn't coached in 12 years. I talked about this with Russillo on his podcast this week. I just... It's a very Gruden team, right? It's shaping up. Like, they go out and get Doug Martin, and, like, he's suspended. And I think he's the only player with 100 or more carries

to average under three per carry for two straight years. I don't know. I know Lynch is their guy. I just think they're going to suck. Yeah. Week two to four at Denver, at Miami, Cleveland, they have a chance. But they have a lot of quirky stuff. London versus Seahawks.

They play Christmas Eve. I don't like this team at all. They have a Rams game they have a Pittsburgh game and oh yeah and we forgot to mention the NFC West and AFC West are playing each other so they got San Francisco who might possibly be good

I don't see there's no evidence from watching television watching John Gruden announce that he is going to be a good coach I was never impressed by anything he said. I thought he was the master of the cliche. He hasn't done it in a long time and hasn't been successful really in 15 years since that Super Bowl that we both successfully bet on,

one of our great first bets together. First day of Jimmy Kimmel. After that, it was 500 the rest of the way. It got fired, announced for 12 years, and now people are like, John Gruden, putting a stamp on the team. What stamp? He certainly hasn't done enough. There was 6-. What stamp? He certainly hasn't done enough. There was six and 10 last year.

He certainly hasn't done enough to jump their projected win total to eight and eight, right? No. Why is that so obvious? It seems like he's more intent to just blow the whole thing up and then start over around Carr and whatever draft pick they get. He can blame the previous regime and do that whole thing. And also this Khalil Mack thing.

If he sits for any amount of time. We didn't even mention that. Imagine like threatening to go to the Jets. Like that's like saying, hey, if you don't buy me a ring, I'm going to start dating your unemployed brother who still lives with your parents and I'll meet it. And it may work. Under.

This is a bet for me. Yep. Eight wins. Under. Not make the playoffs. me. Yep. Eight wins. Under. Not make the playoffs. Minus 190. I'm in. We'll figure all this out before we put the pot up. Do we swing the odds?

Once we say what bets we're doing, it makes the odds actually worse because we've been so bad the last couple years. It's gone a few different ways, but yeah. I would try to just, I would try to short all of our bets. Right. Until we prove ourselves. Take people off our scent. Yeah. Here's the case for Denver.

Seven wins is the over. Minus 170. Not a lot of Tate Frazier agreeers out there. Minus 170. There's been a lot of action on the Denver over. And make the playoffs plus 220. Division plus 400.

Their first six. This is the key to the Denver secret sauce. Other than, Tate, would you agree Denver's quarterback situation was one of the most appalling in recent football history? It still is. It's continuous. Still happening. So you're just not buying Case Keenum at all?

No. Well, he's got to be an upgrade a little from last year. Yeah, he's better than Paxton Lynch, of course. He's better than the highest. Case Keenum made the greatest throw in the history of the Minnesota Vikings. He lost to the eventual Super Bowl champ. I call it the greatest catch by Stephon Dix. He won game after.

What is your act? Did Case Keenum go to Duke? What's your problem? No, no, no. I like Case Keenum. I have nothing against him. The only way that I buy into the Broncos is if Chubb and Von Miller, like if Von Miller has 18 sacks again.

That's the only way I could buy into the Broncos. That defense is loaded. Somehow they lost a keep to leave, and I think they're as good or maybe better. Who's going to throw their helmet at people this year on the team? They're going to figure that out. Yeah, now they can't wear the chains. I love the Chubb-Miller thing.

I think the upgrade fromb Miller thing. Yeah. I think the upgrade from anybody that they had last year to Case Keenum is significant. Yeah. Shane Ray, it's a real good pass defense or pass rusher. Who's the third round running back? Royce Freeman. I like Royce Freeman. Yeah.

I like what I've read about him. I thought the running backs were awful last year. And more important, the first six. So if you're talking about sleepers. They could maybe, maybe yeah first of all for a real sleeper tate has to shit on them so we've checked that box um new new qb improving the qb situation great adding a huge blue chipper another good one um first six home for seattle home for oakland at baltimore home for kc at the jets home for KC, at the Jets, home for the Rams.

Yeah. And then at Arizona. Yeah. Can they get out of there three and three, four and two? Until they get to the next stretch. Five and three over the first eight. And then I think they go like four and four. So we're both going over for Denver. Yeah. I have them in nine and seven. Yeah. I like every team in this division. It's hard. This is a tough one to pick. No, you don't like Oakland.

I don't like Oakland, sorry. I like three teams in this division and I thought the AFC South was tough for me. Tate will help us. How low would the Oakland over-under have to go for you to want it to go over? What do you think happened? Just like everyone in Vegas got excited

the team's coming there in a couple years and just went better and better? John Gruden has pulled like a Jedi mind trick on the entire country. People think, A, he's a good coach because he hosts quarterback camp, and B, that he's going to just rekindle the magic. 15 years of no evidence here. I asked my son, 13 years old, who's the greatest running back you've ever seen?

Oh. What do you think he said? Tate, what would you say? And let's say like- 13-year-old son. Yeah, so he's watched football for the last five or six years that he can remember. Is this answer going to sadden me?

I think so. It made me, I was perplexed. I'm going to say Jamal Charles or Marshawn Lynch. Yeah. He said Marshawn Lynch. Was the best running back he's ever seen and then I thought about it I think it is

is that sad who would it be Le'Veon Bell maybe I don't know we need I feel like I had no 50 running back I think I've been alive

a little longer but is Marshawn Lynch the best running back in the last six years that's a good example of like you see in that video

with him you know with the Skittles video yeah kind of lingering in people's minds that example of like, you've seen that video with him, you know, with the Skittles video. Yeah. Kind of lingering in people's minds. That must be it. Do you think your son needs to switch schools? Or what?

Like a tutor or something? What needs to happen now? I don't know. Speaking of kids, before we take part two over to your podcast, let's do a parent corner. Let's do it. You were with your son all week. I was.

I spent four days with my little man we went to orlando to see full sail and go to nxt and all this stuff and then um and then we went to tampa to see two days of games where he somehow ended up with five balls don't ask wow we never caught a foul ball he just has a way of getting balls right um so anyway we go to nxt on on friday the performance center i put this on my instagram but i'm gonna tell the story he's really excited about this wwe has this performance center which they've turned into like their triple a basically nxt which is the kind of the breeding ground for if you do well there that's where roman reigns came from all these people you know all that sure so they built

it like seven years ago triple h it was his idea um i have this whole thing people learn how to do promos they learn how to do entrances they work on the rings they're all in the same weightlifting program it's really interesting i actually talked to him about it he said that he went to see all these different sports franchises and he studied how they did like the medical center and weightlifting, all that stuff. And he's like, why would we have all of our guys doing all these different things as opposed to our beloved Roddy, Roddy Piper era, where they're just all on their own driving around in cars. So they have this whole awesome complex. So my son goes and it's like, we walk in, guys are getting treated um the divas are there getting worked on everybody's lifting weights and he's just like like he can't wait to lift weights so he's so

they're explaining him that he can't but they're showing him how to do push-ups and sit-ups and all this stuff so he's like having a great time and uh and the guy who's like the coach coach matt used to be prince albert remember him oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. So he's like kind of the leader of the thing. So we bring us into this giant room and there's like seven wrestling rings and all these people, there's like 70 NXT wrestlers

and a couple of WWE wrestlers actually. And they're all in different rings working on stuff. And my son like immediately runs in, jumps in, goes under the ring. He climbs the thing. He jumps down. They had these torsos that these guys practice moves on that look like severed torsos, basically. It's just a head and a torso.

So he grabs one of those. He's doing all these things. Dad, can we get one? All this stuff. I'm like, oh my God, you're never, ever graduating college. And so then he does that whole thing. We watch him jump off the top rope and they're joking they're like wow we need to start a junior nxt and he sees they have this

entrance ramp and he's like can i do an entrance and they were like sure so they have the music and what they do is they practice those entrances and you have to practice like how you walk out how you look at the crowd all this so they queue up a song he gets these two wrestlers who are a tag team there these guys with beards and they go up the ramp and people's expectations are pretty low and they don't understand my son's been doing fake entrances in my house for like the last five years and just randomly like turning the lights off. And then all of a sudden music's playing and you're like, what's going on? You have everything but the bearded tag team.

Yeah. He's doing it. Yeah. He said everything but the tag team. So he's been waiting his whole life for this. So all the wrestlers stop. They put on the music, they start playing.

He crawls out. And this was what was on my Instagram thing. He does the Finn Baylor. He crawls out and it goes a little too long. It's like's going on the bearded wrestlers come out they don't know what's going on then he stands up and he turns around he puts his arms out and does like the dip back and then runs into the ring jumps on the top rope and does like the hulk hogan muscle thing and they're all going nuts and he goes to like he goes around to each rope and he lied on the, he lay on the last rope and he started playing with his hair because somebody does that.

Right. And they were going nuts. They started chanting, this is awesome. He's got 70 wrestlers chanting for him. He's all sweaty. And it was like the greatest day of his life. Yeah. That's hard to beat.

I don't know how I top it. Yeah. I really don't. Like you're like, and then like you went to the Rays game and you met Dickie Vitale and you're probably like this is more exciting he's like can we do another entrance so then they're joking about like a junior NXT

like we gotta start that you could be like our Roman Reigns he's taking it completely seriously he's like when would we start like he thinks it's gonna happen why wouldn't they do it well what I was thinking I did say that they should do they should have an entrance contest on youtube that's fun where people were little kids like 12 and under they come up with their own wrestling entrance and do it yeah it is kind of like a modeling exhibition right it's like it's

some sort of runway very performance yeah oriented um like that. But the big thing that came out of it is he really wants a wrestling ring now. A real one. Yeah. Like a real one. He's like, I know where we could put it. I'm like, what are you talking about? We're not getting a real wrestling ring. What are you talking about?

You crazy person. Where does he want to put it? He had this spot in the back. He basically wants to put it over where the basketball court is. Yeah, right. Put it on the basketball court. Oh, man. Do they make basketball courts that fold into rings? They don't, right? Well, if they did, I would probably have to get

one at this point. So, yeah. So, that's my son who's going to be living home until he's 40. I have a somewhat pro-wrestling related parent corner entry too. So, a couple weeks ago, it's my wife and I, it's our anniversary. And the kids are like, it's one of those things where I'm off the whole week, but the kids

start school Tuesday. So we can't go anywhere. Yeah. We have to go close. You're paralyzed. Right. We go to Arizona. We go to Phoenix.

Yeah. And it's 137 degrees. It's a dumb move, but there, anyone out there looking for like a nice deal, like for the summer, go to arizona there are a bunch of resorts where it caught it costs more to stay home than it would to go to these resorts so we went to one there's our anniversary we dumped the kids off with uh jimmy my cousin jimmy's parents it was nice you made kid number four no no no that thing was all taken care of but uh the uh years ago we um didn't want to know what that means.

But anyway, before we go to the resort, before we drop the kids off, we stop by my friend Ken and Harry's house. Oh. Ken and Harry live in a crazy big house. Like crazy big. It has a pool that's almost never been used. It has a basketball court that's less than never been used. Yeah. And then it's got like some

player like a playground like like the authority should be like looking into these guys yeah for more than one reason but they bought the house they don't have kids but they don't have kids they bought it with the playground but they kept the playground it's been years now exactly so they love it there and especially my middle kid Jack Jack Rom. I named him Tony Romo, but it wasn't like any sports. So the joke's on me. So anyway, Jack Romo loves Ken and Harry's house, hates his younger and older brother, and has been telling us how he wants to move out for a few months now.

And live with Ken and Harry? He breaks it to us. He's like, this is the place I want to live. I want to live with Ken and Harry. Are you serious? And Melissa's like, you can't live. I was like, well, hold on a second now. Wait a second now wait wait let's talk this out how often would you go harry's like yeah i could put he can go to school i'll pick him up and you know it's like

they have a dog he loves a dog yeah cool he's not happy at home and i said well how often what would you be all right not seeing us and he's's like, yeah, you know, you could text me once in a while when a dead wrestler from the 80s dies. That's what he said to me. Because I woke him up a couple weeks ago and told him Jim the Anvil Nidar died. Oh, yeah. And he's like, all right, fine, yeah, leave me alone. So that's what I represent to him, the guy who breaks the news about dead wrestlers,

not the one who put a roof over his head for the first 10 years of his life. So I think I want him to live with Ken and Harry. Melissa says, no, that's terrible. You're like the Adrian Wojnarowski Woj bomb for dead wrestlers to yourself. That's your existence. But what's the problem with like a college, a pre-college thing for just a year,

just so that they can gain perspective about how good they have it at home. I send them off to Ken and Harry. To live with Ken and Harry. Yeah, for a year or just so that they can gain perspective about how good they have it at home. I send them off to Ken and Harry for a year or six months or something. Well, what if he just becomes like the third guy in the group with Ken and Harry? I know. Well, that's what my wife is worried about. She's like, they're going to have them cleaning their bong. I don't like this at all. Cleaning their bong. Yeah. I was like, well, there is something to that. We'd have to have ground rules.

But what happens when Ken sues your son? Yeah. The amount of scams that Ken has your son in. He's going to Wendy's, putting shit in his chili. And he's like, this kid wouldn't lie to you. Yeah, exactly. Well, I haven't worked out the kinks, but just in general, I don't mind the idea of sending your unhappy kid off

to your most disgusting friend's house for a year ken is i'm so when we did the pod and ken was sitting there and i made fun of ken i actually stopped myself because i was like ken might sue me for making fun of a podcast defamation of characters send ben send your son there ben and ken i think that's a good match and maybe ben and uh and jack will live there for a year. Well, wait a second. Before we leave this story, what did you decide? Should he live with Ken and Harry? It feels like this is up in the air.

I think we should give it a run. My wife, who's sentimental or whatever, wants to keep the kid around. I know I'm a horrible father for this, but I think it's for the greater good. You just laid out the first 10 minutes of an Adam Sandler movie. Did I really? Yeah, I think you did. Where the middle kid gets so disgruntled at home. Right.

And his dad has these two degenerate friends. I'm afraid the end of the movie ends up like Goodfellas. That's the only problem. He's just driving a car, sweating, cocaine sweat. Exactly. Wow. That was some story I'm

listen what do you think should he go or should he stay I love him to death but I think from a podcast content

standpoint incredible yeah we can hit Harry's we just send him hey listen if you want to hear the NFC

over unders part two of this podcast just go to against All Odds. That is Cousin Sal's podcast. He does it every week, and with the football season heating up, this is really your time. Plus, U.S. Open. Oh, yeah.

U.S. Open expert? There's a lot, yeah. Once again, every time I forget to email you, like, Simona Halep lost in round one. Number one seed. And the odds are always like, the underdog's like 30 to 1. So stupid. And one of the top two seeds always loses in the first two rounds one seed. And the odds are always like, the underdog's like 30 to one. So stupid. And one of the top two seeds always loses in the first two rounds. Take the dog the first three matches.

Yeah. Thanks to ZipRecruiter. Don't forget to go to ziprecruiter.com slash BS. Thanks to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Everyone knows about the risks of driving drunk.

People can get hurt or killed. You can get arrested and incur huge legal expenses or even lose your job. If you think drunk driving is no big deal, you couldn't be more wrong. Drive sober or get pulled over. Learn more at NHTSA.gov. Go to Against All Odds. You can hear the NFC over-unders with me and Sal right after you listen to this one. And don't forget about our old friend, Tate Frazier. Thanks, Tate. Yeah, of course.

It was fun to see you. Yeah, it was great. Don't forget about Tate. One Shining Podcast, GM Street on the Ringer NFL Show. We'll talk to you on Against All Odds. Check it out. I don't want to see them When we start down

Say I don't have A few years with them I don't have.