The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

Episode Date: August 30, 2026

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal and Joe House for Part 2 of their annual NFL over/unders pod. Next up: the AFC! (0:00) Intro (5:44) AFC East (37:11) AFC North (01:09:30) AFC South (01:32:16) AFC West Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Two and five Canadians will hear the words, you have cancer. That's why every step and dollar raised matters. On September 19th, join thousands in Toronto for the Princess Margaret Cancer Foundation Walk. Challenge yourself, friends, and family to walk 21 kilometers in support of life-saving research. Together, we can carry the fire and help create a world free from the fear of cancer. Register today at pmcfwalk.ca. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by the Ringer podcast Network, where you can find a new episode of The Rewatchables coming tomorrow, Monday.

We're going to put up a little earlier tomorrow, probably early mid-afternoon, E.T. It's a good movie. You've heard of it. That's all I'm going to say. We didn't announce a movie this week. Sometimes you don't have to. So that's coming. If you missed the Ringer Fantasy Football shows live draft that we did on Friday,

It was one of the funniest three-hour runs that we've had at the ringer. There's people screaming at each other. There was people ganging up on each other. Sal made about 25 off-the-cuff jokes. People were eating as they were trying to draft. People were ripping stickers off the little sticker thing. Ripping the, it was just everything was in play. Bad coordination, temper tantrums, you name it.

And it all peaked when all of us colluded to completely screw over Danny Highfits who thought he was going to get cute near the end and get a good QB late. And then we just took all the QBs. And now his QBs, I think are Bryce Young, Cam Ward, and somebody, Michael Pennix, Jr. Those are his three QBs for the Ringer Fantasy Football Draft. So it was amazing. It was about as fun as I've ever had during a fantasy draft. Great job by everybody.

Great job by the Ringer Fantasy guys as well. So that happened. I was going to do a big topper for this episode about. the Red Sox Yankees series, but it basically came down to two plays because they split the double header yesterday. The Red Sox lose one nothing on Friday because Raphaelah doesn't list the third base coach. Tags anyway, thinks Ballinger can't throw them out, throws them out, Red Sox lose one nothing. But that was a great old school Yankee Stadium, Red Sox Yankees pennant race game. I love that one.

Didn't like the one as much today where it felt like it was going to be another one-nothing two-one type game. and Raphaelah ends up making this great catch with the guy on first base and somehow the first base umpire who is just atrocious all weekend, just really atrocious, calls it as a bounce catch. So then there's not enough on the instant replay to over it because Raphael is basically bending his glove over. And that opened the floodgates in the Yankees. Well, in this series, 3 to 1.

And now the Red Sox are in a lot of trouble for the playoffs. because they really need to get to the four seed. I've loved this Red Sox season. A little weird today. They brought in Roman Anthony and Trevor Story from Worcester and sent down Anthony Sigler and Mickey Gas, Mickey Gasper, who was the hottest left-handed hitter on the team and the hottest hitter maybe in the league and sent him down.

He comes back in 10 days. But I hope it didn't mess with the juju. Very fun Red Sox season regardless, but always hate losing the Yankees. can only take solace in the fact that the Yankees have won one World Series in the last 26 years. I looked it up. 2009, Obama's first term, year one of Obama's first term. Last time they won, 17 years ago. So congrats on your win in August.

We'll see in the playoffs, guys. Football, Cousin Sal and I did AFC, NFC, overrunners. We taped them all at once. We ran the NFC on this feed on Thursday. We were about to run the AFC feed. So if you notice, we're in the exact same close. And Joe House is still going to be there as our third person. And I had five locks that I loved for the NFC.

And I think I have two for this one. You're about to listen to for the AFC. I like the NFC more. But Fandau is still giving everyone 5, 50% PBTs that you can put basically on anything up until the end of August. And so if you like any of the locks you're about to hit, or if you liked anything from the last podcast like Atlanta under 7 and a half or Tampa over 8 and a half, I think we had five that I really liked. Dallas over, Seattle over, and then what was the other under?

I had Washington under. If you like any of those, throw those into the little Fando thing because that was very nice to them to do that for us. All right, without further ado, the AFC over unders for win totals with me and the causes next. We're going to take a break and then bring in ProJap. This episode is brought to you by one of my best friends in life, NFL Sunday ticket.

Man, I missed it. Kickoff's coming. Yeah, we're getting close. We're within a month with NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube TV. You get every game, every Sunday, all in one place, and it's magnificent. And there's no other way to follow the NFL season. I'm so mad I didn't get YouTube TV until a couple years ago because it's the best. New users that might include you can get NFL Sunday ticket for eight payments of just $30 a month. You heard me correctly. New users, Pay $240 or eight, eight non-cancable payments of $30 a month. First charge at purchase. Availability varies with NFL sending ticket for out-of-market games and YouTube TV for local national games.

YouTube TV required. Terms restrictions and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded no refunds. The American Football Conference. Curious, why do we do this not on Netflix? This is your conference. We did mine. The National Football Conference.

The American Football Conference, more patriotic. Oh, I see. Okay. National sounds a little more sinister at the National Football Conference. You made the right decision. It's like, who took over. Okay, AFC. Old Guard, New Guard.

Old Guard, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar, Burrow. They're kind of here. New Guard, Drake May, Herbert, Boenix, and good Trevor Lawrence, who we've only known for three months. Old Guard coaches, Andy Reed, Harbaugh, Tomlin McDermott. Two of them are gone. Plus Belichick, he's gone too.

New Guard coaches, Vrable, even though he's a little older, D'emico Ryan's and Cohen and maybe Kubiak too. Plus you have Peyton and Jim Harbaugh, somewhere in there. Do you feel like this is like a transition year or this is a

the old guard reclaims everything year? Interesting. I was thinking about it in terms of quarterbacks and who we knock out of our top four And it's been the top four for forever. A half a decade. Yeah.

Right? Yeah. I'm not ready to move on from the old guard. So you're old guard. I'm thinking my homes specifically. And that's sort of the part of the bracket. All right. I am.

Where are you? I still believe in, I'm like a half and half. I'm like half from the old guard. I think especially Lamar this year, if he's just not going to run in the same way anymore, Burrow is an all-time prebut year where he's had three good ones and three eh.

But we'll see what happens. I got a question from Joe from Charlotte. How many quarterbacks would you put on Marino Watch? By my count, maybe three. Burrow for early success, durability probably rules them out. Lamar, in-season dominance,

like a playoff production, and then Josh Allen. So I guess Marino Watch is like the pressure of, oh, shit, I might not actually win a Super Bowl in my entire career. I guess it would be Marino Watch. I kind of like that.

What about your guy? My guy's like 23. Yeah, but he made it in the second year. I know. Well, he repeated the Marino thing. Yeah. Do you feel like Josh Allen is officially on Marino Watch? I like the premise of this.

I feel like we've gone too far with the Josh Allen hatred. I really do. Not for me. I think he's the best quarterback in the league. Well, you try to say he's the best regular season quarterback. I know, I got checkmated. It got, but it's true. it's like.

And he's put up big points in playoff games too. Yeah, who has put up big points, whoever, whatever team he's playing. Yeah. In Josh Allen playoff games, the defense is allowed 32 points per game.

And the visual is of Josh Allen failing in the last drive or whatever it is, which sucks, because that's how you're going to end your season. But this guy is as consistent as it gets. And we'll get to the bills in a second. Shades of going Collinsworth there for a second. Oh, man. I just,

we got an asshole. I just can't believe. I just can't believe that good, Josh Allen. is. I can't believe it. House, are you pro or anti-Josh Allen superstar? Oh, super pro. I love Josh Allen.

I like him, too. I don't like the situation he's in this season. And we're going to do the AFCs first. Buffalo. 10 and a half is the over-under. Minus 1.35 for the division. The Patriots were 14 and 3 last year, somehow not the favorites. Super Bowl 10 to 1 for the bills.

Minus 340 playoffs, 5 to 1 in 1 seed. 13 plus wins. You go plus 250. Under 8.5 is plus 320. Where are you standing on this one? Do you believe Joe Brady? My what if for this one, we're doing what ifs for every team. Losing McDermott for Joe Brady, what if it makes an already super shaky defense much worse?

Interesting. Because McDermott was allegedly a defensive coach. They were not good defensively last year. It might screw things up. I don't know if it could be much worse. I don't know, as far as clutch situations go. but my money's always on them to outscore the other team. Like, I just don't, like, when we do these overrunners,

first of all, the AFC used to be a breeze. We used to just take your Patriots to win it. And then for years, we took the bills. And now we have to think about it, and it sucks. But you have to think in terms of consistency, right? And this guy hasn't missed a game since 2018. They have six straight seasons with 11 plus wins. So why am I going to take two wins away from them?

And it's all because he like pulls off like David Blaine type's magic tricks in the red zone. Like they're phenomenal down low. They will always score. So you'd have them in the 10 win club, which I talked about in part one. Yeah. Where it's just like McVeigh, 10 wins. I think Ben Johnson is now a 10 win club guy. Right.

So Alan, you would say, I really have tried to zag against it last year or two. I thought long and hard about how to do it this year. If you're ever going to do it, this is the year. Right. New coach, we have no idea if he's good. The best thing you could say about them is they got DJ Moore, who as we talked about in part one,

all the Bears fans were ready to drive in the airport. Offensive line is good, although McGovern's already hurt. I don't know. They overhaul the really crappy D, but it's kind of like they painted a crappy house, a different crappy color. And they were like,

look, I painted the house. Bradley Chubbs a decent pickup. I know they got the second round. He wasn't good last year, though. Clemson kid, actually. T.J. Parker, so they're helping good things with that. They'll have decent pass rush with Rousseau and,

and Chubb, but I don't know. They're favored in 13 games. The Pats are favored in 10. I gave them 11 wins. They won 12 last year. I don't think one player does more work for the over-underers for a team than him year after year.

If you just put, pick anyone who's a slightly above average quarterback. Let's put Bowenicks on the bills. Right. Like, are they a six-win team? So if you did wins above replacement for football, quarterbacks? We have it. We have it with the spreads. He has the highest if you were replaced it with the backup.

Yeah. I had their roster. I had 21 points, which puts them fringe playoff territory. I only had two guys that got points on defense. So even though they, and one of them is Benford, who I don't even, not even positive. Their big strengths are Alan, James Cook, who was incredible last year, and then the offensive line. Yeah. I would say they have below average receivers, top to bottom, right? Even the Patriots have better receivers than them now.

They're playing the AFC West and the NFC North, which is rough. Their first five games are reprehensibly hard at Houston to start, Detroit on Thursday night. So four days later, after Houston kicks the shit out of them, Chargers week three, Pat's week four at home, and then at the Rams, Monday night football week five. So what does that record have to be for you coming out of that? Out of five? Texans, Lions, Chargers, Pat's, Rams. Three and two.

It feels like three and two. Give me three and two. Then it gets a little easier. But you know, it's weird with this 11 plus win teams. Like, what was it two years ago? It was two or three years ago where they had to win their last six to make the playoffs? Yeah. Like they always just seem to find the way.

It's pull it off. It says ridiculous how they do it. And, yeah, I don't know. The schedule, they almost. always have a first play schedule. It's weird about that. I want to make fun of the Pat's schedule last year. Look at the extra games. I think I would rather have the Patriots extra games, even with the first play schedule at Houston, at Rams, Baltimore, or at Seattle, at Jacksonville, Pittsburgh. I'd rather have the Pats games. Yeah, it's one of the big things people are discredited

in the Pats with was how we see the schedule last year. Yeah. It's not that hard this year either. Right. It's like there's some people have it. It's really tough to rank the schedule before the season when we haven't seen everybody, but some people think it's like a top five easy schedule again. Yeah. They have five really hard word games. They only play three games indoors, the bills. I was like when they're indoors.

But the quarterbacks they go against, Drake May twice, Goff, Herbert, Stafford, Lamar, Mahomes, Jordan Love, Caleb, and Knicks. Pretty tough. The best thing that for the schedule standpoint is the plus 14 net rest, which is second this year. Which I'm still, how does you believe in the net rest? You've always enjoyed it.

Yeah, no, I think it matters for sure. Yeah. I wonder if we're overthinking some of this stuff now with net rest and regression. And it's like... Of all the metrics, I put net rest like third or four. I know they're supposed to be at the top, but turnover differential. That's way more important to me, like the plus minus on that. Like, I don't know.

You know what I like? You know what my advanced stats are? Can you run the ball? Can you stop the run? Can you throw the ball? Can you stop the other team from throwing the ball? And it's really those four things. Really?

I'm not convinced the bills can stop a team from running the ball or throwing the ball. Yeah. And the schedule is harder. You're going under. I am. I'm going, I'm a slide under. I'm 10. It's not a lock.

I don't love it. But I think their schedule is awful. And they really can't afford an injury to Allen or Cook. No doubt. And I have real questions about DJ Moore, you know, because people, like DJ Moore. Why is everybody so anxious to get rid of DJ Moore? So two teams now that have been delighted to move off him.

He doesn't stretch the field for sure. And that was the problem with the bills. It didn't have like a burner, right? To get, like they're very low percentage. The other thing to worry about what the bills is we talked about these quarterbacks who just stopped running when they turned 28. He turned 30. I think I just saw in May.

What if that stops? New dad, too. That's it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Turning 30.

There's some not running anymore signs. The counter would be he's superhuman. That's it. Unlike Drake May, where I'm terrified, he's going to get hurt. Right. Alan, you're terrified the other guy's going to get hurt. I'm a slight under. I don't love it.

I wouldn't bet it. But I think he has to be in the 10-win club. I have 11. New England Patriots, 10 and a half is the over-under. Division plus 135. Stupifying to me that they have the same, that Buffalo is just much better for a division odd bet than the Pats. it. Super Bowl 17 to 1.

Number 1 c8 to 1, 12 plus ones plus 220. And if you want to short them under 7-5 is plus 380. My what if talked about it on Tuesday. What if A.J. Brown is a 2007 moss-like super boost for this team. We're not asking for five awesome seasons for him. Just give us one fuck you season.

It seems like he wants to do it. There's a world where, yeah, where maybe throws for 41 touchdown. and 13 go to AJ Brown. And what was his over under? I mean, if you get the escalator on the 12 plus, it's ridiculous odds. Their deep threat last year was Booty, who I really liked, and I thought Houston made a smart deal with him.

We traded him for a seventh round pick and a backup safety. That was our deep threat last year. Diggs was the other guy who might get open. He played 35, 40 plays a game. And then we didn't trust one other guy in the team. So I wanted to come on here and be like, this is it, the ultimate regression team. They played Alcorn State 14 times last year.

They're going to go 3 and 14. And I can't do it because I think they could arguably be better on paper at least than they were last year. They're definitely better talent-wise than they were last year. But with the record with fewer wins, like with four fewer wins. I think that's a definite possible. Well, they went 14 and 3. So if they have three less wins, they're still 11 and 6 and hitting this over. Right.

A couple things just to, I don't think, get. mentioned enough when everyone talks about the schedule. They still have Drake Manor rookie deal, just the biggest advantage you can have in football, right? Now, if they're not going to use the money to then give Christian Gonzalez a top five cornerback, you know, for some reason in low-blying, and Kraft's history of, I don't want to say cheapness, so I'll just say cheapness. His history of cheapness,

pretty long legacy of trying to cut corners here, and they always seem to have 50, 60 million of open money and money that they can push, but they never actually seem to spend it. Well, these owners are hurting. You don't understand. Some of them are spending only $140 on it. Right.

Oh, my goodness. Like, go sell 5% of the team for $1 billion, right? The team's probably worth $10. Right. But so the Gonzalez thing makes me nervous, but they have Drake Manor rookie deal. They are one of only eight teams that have the same head coach,

OC, and D.C. from last year. right so they actually have continuity um my fears are because they they they the old line's going to be better will campbell's healthy now we got the kid from utah right yeah they have a little depth they brought him bired from the bears a little safety um veteran guy in the back he's good the the reasons to short them you mentioned the regression the variable scandal what happened is that going to have any sort of carry over to how he performs this season i have no idea and then uh the gonzalez Contract makes me nervous. But how about this?

I have two words for you. Maybe you're not familiar with these. Cover six. Have you heard about cover six? What's cover six? Cover six is a defense that all three playoff teams last year doubled up. Some of them play like 30%. They doubled it up to 60% against Drake maybe.

And it was effective. It's essentially taking away. It's doing a cover two and then four on the other side of the field. And under, oh, read about cover six because you could be in trouble. Those three playoff teams did it against. Oh, they did the thing. they're rushing three or four, but dropping everyone back. And they're always doing it in their second regular season game against them.

Yeah. And it was effective. I don't know why every team doesn't do this. I didn't know it was called cover six. I just knew it was called the defense that works against Drake Bay and last year's Patriots. Yeah, I wonder if anyone else pick up on that. Well, you know what's going to happen this year. AJ Brown will just run down the field and get open and then he'll throw a time.

He's going to say goodbye to the six. And they got Dobbs too. I mean, AJ Brown and Dobbs versus what they had last year. It's fucking bonkers. It's a night and day compared to the receiver. They also drafted this tight end in the, either second or third round, Eli Raredin. Yeah. Who's this like just beast blocker.

And they have just more options than they did last year with lineups and stuff. The Notre Dame. Yeah. Big guy. I have them at 27 points in my roster rankings. And they play the following Shikubis, Rogers, cousins, Murray, Gino twice, Willis twice. So you figure with Buffalo in the past, that's four wins against the Jets and softens. It's just, that was the hard part with the bills. Anyway, I'm going over 11 wins for the Patriots.

Not a lock, though. Over 10 and a half. Over 10 and a half wins. Yeah, 11. I'm going under 10 to 1 half to 10. I think the bills have 11. The Patriots have 10. Okay.

And I am not acknowledging. I have the Pats at 11 and the bills of 10. I'm not acknowledging their Super Bowl appearance. I'm not doing it. That's fine. I mean, you and Hedge. Did you make money from the Seahawks at least? I did.

that I'll acknowledge. Okay. But, I mean, you guys tore, like, he made it in a third last time and Dak Press guys. Like, you didn't make it to the, he didn't make it to the Super Bowl. I likened it to go into six flags and waiting in line for two hours, getting to the very top, and then you're on the whatever, free fall, and you see the drop and you shit in your pants, and you come back down to the bottom. You can only play who's in front of you.

I don't ever remember people doing this with other football teams. But he got scared. He got very, very scared in the Super Bowl. I don't think he was healthy. I know you keep saying that. I think if they lose to the Chargers in round one. In round one? Yeah, last year.

Oh, last year. They go 14-3. They lose to the Chargers. Everybody says, oh, they're young. Oh, they added, oh, look out for this team. Right. But the further they went, it actually makes people not like them as much for this year. Yeah.

Wow. I feel the same way about them as they did with the Bears. I don't think they were a Super Bowl team last year. I don't think the Bears were a 12-win team or whatever they ended up last year. But I think this year was supposed to be the year for both of the teams. And especially when you have Caleb and May in these rookie deals. And, you know, it's the biggest advantage you can have.

So I hope they take advantage of it. I mean, we're completely going to discount. We're going to get to the Texans later. But two pitiful quarterback performances in the playoffs. I'm not discounting it. I really 95% sure he was hurt. and that's where I've landed. I watched him all year and he didn't look remotely.

He said, today, it wasn't hurt. I don't know if you saw it. He said in an interview. It was like, don't let anyone try to make excuses for me. I was awful. I wasn't hurt. I'm going to make excuses. Also, our left tackle was playing on one leg.

Yeah. That's bad. New York Jets, over five and a half. Division 18 to 1. Playoff 7 to 1, 10 plus wins 8 to 1. Last year, they're 3 and 14. There's 6 to 1 have the worst record. year. So they made two straight conference finals in 2009 and 2010.

What? Yeah, way back going with Rex Ryan. I mean, two straight. I think there's been in the last 30 years 120 teams that could have potentially gone back to back, dating back to 96. And I think it's either 29 or 30 have ever done it. And half of those teams are like when the Patriots did it for eight years in a row, and the chiefs did it for seven years in a row. The Jets did this two years in a row. They were in the final four. And then they've not made the playoffs since.

Not even a wild card. Surely they've come close. It's a 14 team playoffs every year in a 32 team league. It's basically 45% chance. Yeah. Never did it. Oh, New York, small market. How are they supposed to?

No one's going to go to point. But what if the Jets aren't dumb enough to tank this season? What if they're just competitive enough that they go seven and ten? Yeah. And now get knocked out of the top five and win a couple games, get their fans excited. And then all of a sudden, the merry-go-round stops, and there's four quarterbacks available, they get none of them. Do you think keeping Aaron Glenn means they're not, it's fine, they're okay with tanking?

To me, it's like, I cannot believe that guy is back. And look, I was rooting for him, and I thought he took a lot of shit for celebrating on sideline when they went to overtime against Tampa only to lose. But this is a defensive specialist that they brought in. And they did not have one interception over 17 games. And it seemed like they quit as the last month of the season. That was one of how many teams just felt like that last month like they were just like, I'm ready to go home?

You can't have the defense quit on you if you're Aaron Glenn. It's like that 92 years, no one's had no intercept. He's a specialist. And they brought him back. It's like you hiring a painter and the guy comes out. the first day and paint your dog and the hedges. And you're like, all right, well, just come back tomorrow. You'll hit some walls.

It'll be fine. I don't understand. Well, apparently he had 22 assistants on last year's staff and replaced 12 of them, including the OC and the D.C. Hired Joe House's guy Frank Rake. That's not my guy. Your guy. You said he was the best coaching in a conference three years ago.

I never said it. He 100% said it. And he definitely said it. He definitely said it. We joked about it and then text read and he got fired in like week 11 in this first season. Not House. Frank, right. Frank,

right. Yes, yeah. That house that must survive. The good news for the Jets, they loaded up in the draft. Three first round picks, the only team, right? And they had the 50th pick. Yeah.

So they had four of the top 50. Mm-hmm. The bad news is the reason they had two of those three first rounders is because they traded their two best players on defense for the first rounders. Mm-hmm. Got to factor that in. But they are going to be better, and their offensive line is going to be better. It might actually be like a top 12 offensive line, maybe.

Yeah. So I have them as a slight over. Yeah, you have six wins? Yeah. Right now I have them at 7 and 10 just because I had trouble finding AFC wins anywhere. I had 6 and 11. The schedule's kind to them for their first eight are against the Titans, Browns, dolphins, and Raiders.

So they could be four and four at the half. Playpoint. That could be the exciting story. Well, it's funny. Titans is week one. Yeah. And then they go Packers, at lines, at Bears. Robert Saligate. And if the Titans were good, yeah, you'd be like, oh, that could be Owen for, and now what do you do? Do you fire Aaron Glenn? Do you say, fuck it, now let's go for the number one pick? But all the buzz on the Titans has been so bad in the preseason. And I actually think they'll probably beat the Titans.

We're going to be overwhelmed in a stupid way by the winner that Titans, Jets. game, I think. Well, we talked about this. Let's not let ourselves do that. We talked about this, tried to remember it. Midway through the year, we're like, let's remember this for next year, the dumbest week one result. And last year was the Raiders beating the Patriots, which just led to all these different

dumb outcomes in our heads that then the opposite happened. That Titans Jets game is a candidate. That's the one. What could be the dumbest result? I look through them. But, you know, if you look at the rest of the schedule, there are a lot of games where they should win if they'd score like 21 or 22 points. I just know with

Gino, so Gino went from Seattle, good, to the Raiders, just pathetic. Jets' offensive lines probably somewhere in between there. And probably enough to win six. Gino was an outright atrocity last year, but they couldn't block for him and he was running for his life. So he's either

washed up or the Raiders thing was really bad. They play Malik Willis twice, Cleveland, Cam Ward, cousins, Bressette, Kyler. Yeah. Maybe you can win six, seven of those.

I have them at seven and ten. I don't feel great about it. We both have the jets over. My God. I know. I just think it's too low. I mean, what were they last year? They're three and 14, but they traded their two best guys midway through the season.

Yeah. And also had, you know, we were trying not to talk about regression too much, but that was one of the craziest things ever, not having an interception. Okay. Miami Dolphins is the last one. a new coach. Let's pour one out for DJ Mikey Mac. That's it. He's done spinning the discs in Miami.

The clubs are quiet today. He landed on his feet. Yeah, he's clubbing it out here. Clubbing it out in San Diego. Miami was 7 and 10 last year. They're over under. It's 3.5. I had to double check that.

I'm like, oh, yeah, you're right. 7 and 10. 15 and 1 to make the playoffs. Worst record, they're plus 220. Good. If you want to zag and bet on them to go 8-9, it's plus 700. I'm going to list their highest paid players for you this year. Have you seen this graphic?

They're somewhere else. Yeah. Tuah 55.4 million? Yeah. Not on the team. Tyreek 28.2, not on the team. Waddle 23.2. Doesn't play for them.

Jalen Ramsey, 20.9? Not in the team. Fitzpatrick, 13. Nope. Zach Seeler. 11.4 on the team. We got one. Welcome.

Bradley Chub 11, nope. And Armstead 10.7. So they're eight most expensive guys that they're still paying. You said Waddle too? Waddle, yeah. Seven of the eight are not on the team. They're paying seven of those guys not to play for them. Six players, 162 million dollars.

The guys are not playing. Malik Willett, they're paying Malik something. I just gave you eight guys. Malik is, what was he, 20? but they could spread it out. Oh, okay. Yeah. Oh, man.

So the only case for them is if you feel like they actually had the worst quarterback situation on one of the top three, Cleveland, Minnesota, Miami, and Willis will actually be pretty good. They're bringing in halfway for the defense. And then could there be some sort of, could they just be this funky run team that five times a year, they just rush for 280 yards on somebody that has a bad front seven and sneak to five wins?

I don't think they want to. It was the problem. They don't. They did the bare minimum. They extended Devon A. Chan, right? Superstar player. Who they could trade in October. And they signed Malik Willis just to have someone back there.

Malik Willis who, did he walk out on practice yesterday? Was that a story? Like, you know, and he takes sacks, this guy. That was a story. He got so frustrated with the offense that he left. Their wide receivers are... I was just going to hit this. Go ahead.

Well, the initial list of who their wide receivers where two of those guys, I don't think, are the wide receivers anymore. Who is it? It's Chris Bell? Yes, he is out. Yeah. Who are the receivers? Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and Tutu Atwell.

I think two of those guys have been nudged out. I don't even, I think they're depth draw now. I checked the depth draw. Wait, wait, let me see the road. Well, regardless. It's Jayland Tolbert, Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Texas Tech. Okay, yeah.

Tutu's fourth. Chris Bell's out. Yeah. Yeah, it's garbage. It's rough. I don't know. Again, you don't want to give anyone two wins, but very surprised if this team had more than three.

Offensive line is actually weirdly competent. I wouldn't say it's great, but it's solid. Secondary is all time. Like, they traded Wado basically for that Chris Johnson, the cornerback. And if he's not good, I don't even know who's covering receivers for them. And it's not like the pass rush is going to be better either. Jets futility, about 2009, 10, 25 years since the dolphins won a playoff game.

And on the season ticket this year, it actually says 20, they crossed the other, it says 26. Like, don't even expect anything this year. Jesus. That's how it is. House loves Bobby Slowick, though. A lot of Chop Robinson that they have to push. This is a breakout ear for chop. Yeah, Bobby Sloke.

Here's the other weird thing about them. And this is why I think there's a real case for the under. They play a lot of good quarterbacks. They have the Drake made Josh Allen combo for. four times. Purdy, Mahomes, Burrow, Gough,

Kaleb, Love, and Herbert. This is with the worst secondary in the league. Oh, my God. So this is going

to be one of those situations where it's like, oh, my QB's playing the Dolphins this weekend. Right. Six of the first nine against playoff teams.

Yep. With all that said, I'm ready to be talked into going over and saying they're going to go four and 13. Now, I want to talk it out.

Oh, I thought we just did. It's either three or four. They're favored in one game. against the Jets. Could they do like a funky running thing three times? Yes, and then, and it's still an under. Three total.

Three and 14 is under three and a half wins. I think it's a battle to the grave with the Cardinals for that first pick. Thank you, right. I think if you're going to go over with the Jets, you're not allowed to also go over with the Dolphins. Right. It's a good way to think about this. 13 draft picks, though.

So maybe in a couple of years it'll figure out. At Raiders, at Niners. home chiefs at Vikings, home Bengals. Basically the Raiders is a must-win game if you're going over. I think if they lose that game, it's a wrap. You're not getting the over on that. House, give us your AFC's thoughts. So I'm in lockstep with the cousin Sal.

The Buffalo Bills haven't lost, well, I'll say it the other way around, have won at least 11 games since 2018. So if Josh Allen's the quarterback and he plays, then the Buffalo Bill is going to win 11 games. I really am intrigued by this New England situation because I think that they're a 10 or 11 win team, but I'm going to sit tight. I want them to start the season off one and three.

They are at Seattle. They're home against Pittsburgh. They're at Jacksonville. They're at Buffalo. If the Patriots come out one and three, I am, the win totals that will be available at that point of the season, four weeks in, market calendar right now. Get in there and jump on Patriots 10 wins at that point. He's still injured. You could see.

You can't, he can't throw, he can't rear back. That's what we're going to hear. One and three. That feels like two and two. Okay. I don't disagree. I'm rooting for one and three. The greatest thing about that, if you had the Pats over,

if they somehow won the Seattle game, you'd be like, oh, my God. Right. That was the guaranteed loss of all of these. Your best price is going to come from them being a little bit, you know, where people have questions for the first month. I do. Yeah. Jets over?

Jets over. Yeah. Dolphins. The Jets have eight new starters on defense. The Jets went out and got Mika Fitzpatrick and David Anyata and all these guys. Crazy. I kind of liked what they did. Yeah.

There's, I won't name names, but there's a couple Jets fans of my life, not fantasy. Like, we're the optimistic about this Jets team. I think it's kind of hit the, you know, if we can just get Gino back to the Gino from two years ago. I do like the tight end, Sadiq. I think he's going to be good. Yeah. More than kid. Yeah.

But we'll see. All right. So NFC, I'm sorry, AFC, no locks for us in this. Nah. You have Buffalo, New England. I have New England Buffalo. And if you do either of those with Jets 3, Miami 4, I mean, the higher money thing would be to do the Pats. Go Pats, Bills, Jets, Miami is probably at least like 5 to 1. Yeah, it's probably 5 to 1.6 to 1 range. We'll do this next week, but Jets third place, I think, is even.

even odds. Really? Yeah. Isn't that good? Yeah, it's pretty good. You have to root from just enough. All right. That's it for the AFC's coming back with the

AFC North after this. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Fandul where the football season begins. Every team is undefeated. That's right, even the Jets. Every fan believes this could be the year that the team makes the playoffs, maybe even lifts the trophy.

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12 plus wins plus 125 under 9 and F wins plus 200 they were 8 and 9 last year my question for you what if Jesse Minter is a massive upgrade over zombie John Horbaugh what do we do then?

Oh that's a good one zombie John he's just like I'm still coaching the New York Giants yeah zombie John zombie John gave that New York Giant speech you play for the New York Giants why did they clip that out I don't know they put that on their social media

It's like you know our wives have Friends that they'll send the Instagram photo They're thinking about posting to make sure that Yeah, yeah And you have to get the approval They should be that way for the football teams of these social clips There should have been somebody in the Giants like no we're not posting that looks like an idiot You gave a pep talk to the ringer staff

And like everyone was just like looking at their phone. You would fire the social media person. I was like, this is the ringer. We work for the ringer. It was like a Will Ferrell speech. Very weird. I drive Don Stratis.

You play for the Giants. And now he's gone. I have thoughts on this, but I'll throw it to you in the Ravens. What if Jesse Minter's good? Yeah, that would help, right? And they have like a 29-year-old offensive coordinator. So it all helps.

Declan Doyle. Declan Doyle. Great name. That sounds like a Showtime show. Yeah. It's like new, new from Showtime, Declan Doyle. Did you... He's a cop on the edge.

Yeah, Declan Doyle. Get that badge. They signed Trey Hendrickson. You say there's no karma in football, but that Max Crosby, how they took advantage of the disabled Raiders. Even the Ravens do that shit every year. Yeah.

This year it hurt. got Trey Hendricksson, but maybe the karma is they lose Tyler Lindenbaum to free agency. And now they have a center out. Yeah. That's tough. Third stringer. Yeah, you always talk about it. Right.

And they'll end up from the brands. Right. So the funniest move they did was extending, and I know you like this, the Zay Flowers. And they gave him just a ton of money. And like, to me, I think the litmus test is they're treating this guy like a superstar. But if NBC was like promoting next week's game, like Baltimore, against, you know, the Chargers, it would be Herbert. And if they put Zay Flowers up, would you chuckle?

If you chuckle, then it's a terrible sign in giving all this money. I think we're at that chuckle point. So I don't know. It's like an NBA with the last guy introduced in the starting lineup. Yeah, right. I'm like, ooh. Right. Yikes.

There's a reason. Who's going to be the last guy for the Wiz this year, House? Trey Young or Anthony Davis? AJ DeBanza. What are you talking about? He's going to be the last guy. over Trey Young? He's the most exciting players

the number one draft pick. I don't think that's happening. Some of you guys. Lamar, since his calf injury, what was it? Right? He 25 yards per game rushing. And that's big. We talk about these guys all going from 28 to 29 years old, whatever.

Really shocking when you look at the pro-reference, pro football reference, the career and watching the attempts in the yards. Right. And I hate to harp on it, but it's big. I mean, on third and four, that was really. a lot of times they're only outlet, like to continue to drive. So trenches were bad, 26 and pass blocking, 28th and sacks on the other side. Offensive line is the thing that probably worries me the most.

Yeah. I don't think it's going to be bad, but I don't think it's going to be good either. They just need to be mediocre. Two things that jump out. Maybe top three is the schedule in the league. First seven. Earlys, yeah. First seven, it's like, how are you not six and one after these first seven?

I talked to Mallory last night because for help for the AFC North. At Colts, Saints, at Cowboys, Titans, at Falcons, at Browns, Bengals. The Cowboys isn't real, but... Yeah. It should be five and two minimum. Those are some of the worst teams in the league. And they were two and five to start last year, right? So...

Good QBs they play, which is another thing I love to look at. This was a huge for the Pats last year because they played no good QBs. Burrow twice, Dack, Josh Allen, Lawrence, Herbert. That's it. basically seven out of the 17 games. I'm all in on Jesse Minter. And my favorite thing to do, I talked about this in part one is the coach

that can come in and do Mike Frable, especially if they're following the shitty coach, Mike Frable following Mayo or Dan Quinn following. Who is the crappy guy? Ron Rivera. Yeah, Riverboat Ron. And it's just so easy. It's like, oh, that's worth six wins.

We didn't really have that. situation, this is worth the new coach hires. But I think the two new coach hires that were the significant ones, this is one of them, because it's like, oh, John Harbaugh was good. He won all those games. I actually think he's going to be a massive upgrade. I thought he was unbelievable with the Chargers last year. That was like one of the best coordinator coaching jobs anyone did.

Their defense was kind of old. They had injuries, and it just didn't seem to matter. They were flying around. And I was won over. As you know, I overreact to social media videos in August. and quotes from teammates about players on their team that are young players or rookies. That video of him singing Eminem

as the whole locker room is going nuts. I was like, I've seen enough. The jury's it. Should Harbaugh have tried that with the Giants? You have the Harbaugh thing I'm one. He's doing Will Farrell. And then you have Jesse Mentor singing for his team and they're all fucking losing their minds.

12 and 5. I'm way over. Way over. So is this a lock? This is a lock. Can I say this is, I'm jealous of this take now? Yeah. If I could change.

Take it right now. I'm locked into 10. We're all friends. No, no, not after this. So you're going under? I'm going 10. Well, it's a good year. It's 10.

It's the playoffs. And then 12 plus wins. There's been some juice on the Ravens, but 12 plus wins is plus 125. I mean, AFC South and NFC South are the divisions. Yeah. The quarterbacks I mentioned. Like I said, and I'm jealous.

And honestly, if you read between, the lines, you talk to, like, Mallor and I were talking about it last night. The Ravens fans was that Harbaugh was driving to the airport status for everybody. It seems like it was the case for Lamar, too. There's a little fuck you with Lamar, I think, this season. Really? Like, oh, you're counting me out. Oh, you think this was a big loss that we lost this fucking clown Harbaugh?

I'm not saying he said this, but I think he's going to have a little, a little ump to him. Derek Henry, oh, you're counting me out. You think I'm old? You think I can't do this again? It's just a fucking, this is a chip on the shoulder team. Interesting. Jesse Minner proving that he belongs with the big boys.

We have a new coach every year that crushes it. It's a lot. I think he's the coach. All right. I mean, honestly, the counting us out, that's the only thing you would go against. Like, what if they're running game is not existing? With Lamar getting older and choosing not to run. Derek Henry finally, the touch is catching up with him.

But other than that, you're probably right. Week 5 at Atlanta. and their shitty defense. Yeah. Collinsworth. I think they're going to have to hose them down. That's an NBC game. Yeah.

Oh, Mike. My guy, the Lamar, anyone who thinks Lamar isn't back. Come on. Come on. I mean, Art the Blank could have signed this guy.

What? He's kicking himself right. Get his camera and Arthur Black and the luxury box. Just beating himself. But win that game, 52 to 10. Then the next week, lose to the Browns. because that happens every year.

I'm really hard, aggressive over Ravens. Seven to 12 is tough. Sinci Buffalo, Jacksonville, Chargers. Yeah. Panthers, Texans. So five playoff teams in a row plus Sincet. Sinci, the sexy team Dujure in the AFC East. Sorry to say Dujure and make you hungry house.

House here's Dujore. He thinks of soup. He thinks of the specials. Yes. What special house? Oh. when you're when the waiter comes over what's the number one thing where you're like oh you mean like it's not on the menu yeah what tonight's special is when he's talking about steaks fish we've we've

covered this territory because it it is special the veal chop oh we have a veal chop tonight we're gonna do it with a little marsalis a little car what if they gave you the pounded veil millionaire billchap billionets phenomenal that's a that's a blind order for me yeah yeah is that a nice restaurant it's like really that sounds awesome I I almost always tune the specials out. You did? Why? You've already decided.

You're like the Ravens. Well, I've already decided on 10 and 7. I don't want to hear your opinions. What's your track record with specials? Like, mine's like 10%. So with that and mine.

It's special to the restaurant. The chef's like, I was excited to make this thing. You got to pretend, you know. Yeah. But you're not even, what do I care? What do?

He almost definitely has different tastes than I do. Well, Sinceree is the sexy team du jour. Yep. Theirover is up to 10 and a half, inexplicably. They were 6 and 11. last year.

Minus 198 for the playoffs, plus 165 for the division, 21 for the Super Bowl. You can super short them and go under seven and a half for them at plus 420, which, which guy in Ringerwise guys

is going to do that? What? It feels the bundle-ish. Yeah, the, we've already covered this. The hard all-down- are shorter. Yeah, I can't remember, yeah.

Nobody came out. Really? 4-20s. that's under set seven and ten so that's a five-week borough injury basically. They could do that. They could do that. My what if for you, never mentioned in all of the,

we love the Bengals, regression, schedule's so much easier, Joe Burrow. What if the Bengals can't block for Joe Burrow again? Because I don't think they're going to be able to. They didn't do it. First of all, it sucks that their defense was maybe worse than their offensive line, which can never protect Joe Burrow. And they decided to put all their assets into defense, all the picks.

But with part of the logic being, if we improve our defense, that makes it easier for Joe. You wouldn't have to be on the field. It's like, right. Does that make it easier for Joe? He's still running for his life when you run plays for him. How is that easier? I would rather have an offensive line. It's bad.

But they did score 37 back-to-back games and lost both. So I think that has to be the concern. But then again, you're right. Yeah, he's played six years. He's made it to the finish line three of those six or whatever as that point. I honestly wasn't playing that well last year before he went down. Yeah. He gave up 492 points last year.

The Super Bowl year, he wasn't his best year either. I want to talk about Zach Taylor because this is the hottest of hot seats. He's number one hot seat, right? If this is hot ones, what flavor of hot is this house? Is this like Armageddon? Yeah, whatever the atomic one, one of the last two or three. Yeah, torchbearer. The only reason I don't think it's the hottest is because they're so fucking cheap,

they would have to do the calculus of paying two coaches. Yeah. Like, how much is it extra is this going to cost? Well, what happens if you promote an assistant in the middle of the year? The interim is an assistant. They just promote the assistant. Now, he had excuses. I don't think he has them this year.

If Burrow makes it or not, I think this is it. I wrote, it's funny. You said hot seat. I wrote make or break coach this year. Sure. Just like, this is it. There's no way he comes back if they don't make it. Also, Burrow has not made the playoffs.

since 2022. And I do wonder if there's a world where Mahomes doesn't get concussed in that playoff game, which he clearly got concussed. And then they left him in to cost the three of us a lot of money. And also led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. And Joe Burroughs has never been in a Super Bowl. Mahomes just makes it again. Like, do we talk about him all differently?

Right. You just become Dak Prescott at that point. Maybe. Way better pass rush, easy schedule. and easy Patriots that schedule that's about it

extra games at Miami at Washington home for KC no short week games right they finally took a center in the fourth round but otherwise

it was all defense they signed Dexter Dexter Lawrence they get him from the Giants their second round traded him basically they gave up the 10th pick in the draft form

right that was it so the first pick was a second round pick this guy has historically short arms they say Cassius Howell, the edge, but he's supposed to also help

third easiest strength of schedule. I have their roster at 17 points. Burrough is eight of those points. He has an eight. Josh Allen was a nine, Burroughs was an eight. Chase was a five. Highest receiver points you can get in my system,

five. Higgins was two. So just 15 points for those three guys. I had the offensive line as a minus one. You could talk to me to a minus two for them. And Lawrence says three points and no other guys got points. And this is like, I take the player ranking thing seriously. I don't know if it always works, but I read all the lists. Like ESPN is a great list, PFF.

They have four good players. I don't understand how we're penciling them in for 11 wins. I don't care how easy the schedule is. I don't see what's different about them the last year. I don't really get the case. I don't normally bite on Cincinnati. I'm always like, yeah, this is a sexy thing. I don't know why I'm going over.

I probably wish I could reverse what I did, you know, you did with the Ravens and Bengals, but I'm going, I'd go over 10.5 at plus 105. Is that their number? Yeah, 10 and a half. Yeah. They play, the only good QBs they play are Lamar twice, Mahomes, Lawrence, and Daniels.

And then they move into the Stroud, Rogers, two times, Baker, Shuck, Bryce and Daniel Jones and his one leg. And then they play Watson twice, Willis, Cam Ward, and Tua slash Pennix. I think what I'm looking at, giving them 11 wins. I went 10 wins, even though I don't even like the team. I just feel like they're going to score 30 points 10 times against the shitty team, right?

Yeah. And, you know, take it for what it's worth. Favoring in 15 games. Yeah. 15 and 17 years. Yeah. For sure. 11 wins seems rich for me considering, a, they can't block.

B, Burrow injury potential. C, how many times, how many games did Jason Higgins play together? together. Right. I was feel like one of them is banged up or Higgins goes out for three, four weeks. So I don't know. Ten wins seems, the under seems safe because if there's an injury to chase or an injury to burrow or an injury

to Lawrence, like any of those three guys, you could say this about a lot of teams, but especially this team, like they have no room for error with their star players. So under for me. Do you don't like flaco coming in in relief? No.

Pittsburgh Steelers, they're over under is eight and a half. Five to one for. the division. A couple of ringer-wise guys kicked the tires on that one a little bit. Playoffs plus 160. 10 plus wins is plus 180.

I would do that over playoffs because I think it's going to be 10 in the AFC. Under 5.5 wins is plus 380. A couple what-ifs here. What if Rogers cannot make it through the season at age 42. Whoa.

Bombshell. Whoa. What if? Is there any chance with Drew Aller that they could still hit the over? The preseason was pretty impressive for our guy Drew. And I don't, yeah, I don't, I don't feel, I feel like they could go nine and eight, even if Rogers doesn't finish the season. What are your thoughts on that?

That's interesting. I do have him playing over three and a half games, the line I made up in my head. I don't know that this recarnation of, you know, Mike McCarthy. And I don't know if this, this isn't the offense he signed up for. this guy throws 30% of his passes beyond, behind or at the line of scrimmage. And they're trying to stretch it out. Yeah, we could cry. I mean, everything was as good as it could be for the Steelers last year, right?

Like, they were 10 and 7. To say they're going to regress two games and break that streak. And by the way, I wish they had a camera on Mike Tomlin when they officially go 8, 9, because that's where I have them here. But yeah, it's all Rogers. Thanks for coming back. But I will not take the fifth as I review his. putrid, putrid stats here.

32nd in success rate, 30 third in air yards, 28th, 3rd, 3 and outs, dead last completion under pressure. There you go. I said it. I feel patriotic. Rooted for the team that he had the good game against or bet on the team that he had the good game against

all the times it happened. Yeah. I felt like I was 0 for 6. How lucky could they get? Burrow was out. The Ravens started 1 in 5, 2 and 5. The Browns were the Browns. There's some injuries on the defense.

Yeah. There's a week 13 game. They go Broncos Black Friday at home. And then the next week's Sunday night football against the Texans. Tomlin's going to be there, obviously. Or it's a Tomlin game. And that is the worst possible defense for a 42-year-olds. Oh, yeah.

Aaron Rogers. I just think they'll be cutting the Tomlin. Kind of be like, all right. So I mentioned the coaches thing with when we were talking about mentor about how this year it's weird with the coaching changes because the ones that I think are going to be significant aren't necessarily the ones you would think. Kind of feel that way about Pittsburgh.

I think my other what if would be, what if Tomlin was kind of watched the last couple years? Their offense was an abomination. They have good players in their defense. Like I had in my player rankings, five guys have points in that defense. Everybody loves their front seven, right? Especially if they can revive TJ,

special teams pretty good. Demel Dean. Their front seven is going to be awesome. Yeah. And him and they got it. Pitman, which I think was important. They got Dowell,

who I've always liked. I feel like they've set Rogers up better than they did last year. Yeah, this team's good. I actually think they're pretty talented. And you're going to go nine, 10 wins?

What are you doing? Well, here's the thing with the McCarthy. He has basically the exact same credentials with the records as Harbaugh. on Peyton. They all won a Super Bowl. They all around the same with the wins.

Like if you, if you hid the names, it just looked at the thing you wouldn't know who is who. Right. I just feel like this is 10 and 7. And maybe even a little bit higher. I think their offense is going to be way better.

He's good at offense. You had him in Dallas. I know. Their offense did shit. Our quarterback throws beyond the line of scrimmage, though. True. So I have to take you through those numbers again? I get it.

And I know they get a wide receiver. Alabama, they're excited about and all that. But I just, I don't like the schedule at all. I feel like they have to go six and three before that mid stretch of Cincinnati, Philly, Denver on Black Friday, at Jacksonville and Baltimore. That is crushing in that middle. We 10 to 15. 10 to 15.

That's it. Cleveland twice, Atlanta, Jones, Shuck, Bryson, Ward. So they have seven bad QB games basically, which is okay. I think they're collapse proof, though, pretty much. because they knuckleball their way to wins. They win these clownish games. That's why I have them at 8 and 9. Zero indoor games for the Steelers.

Outdoors for 4 plus months. I think that's fine. I think that's good for them though. They beat the Falcons week one. At Patriots, Bengals, at Browns, home colts. I genuinely think that's 4 in 1. That's what they're going to have to be

with those other games we mentioned. The problem for them, is they lose to the Browns or have a weird game against the Browns every year. They have week eight, November 1st, Browns, Thursday night football.

Oh, I'm already predicting that's one of the five weirdest games of the year. Yeah, that would be decided by something bizarre. I like this team,

though. I think this is the 10-win team, not the Bengals. Wow. You think the outdoor games help. Although I had the Bengals 10 wins too. I think it'll come down to the matchups.

I think they're going to get the playoffs spot, not the Bengals. kidding. I have the Bengals at either nine or ten, but I think that Steelers get to ten.

I mean, they face the number three past defense right now this year in their schedules. I don't know. I don't know how he does it. I like the vibes. I like everything I'm seeing

from the training camp, and I think Tomlin, I think that just got weird. I think, you know, you're the coach of the team and everybody kind of knows it's ending

and he almost didn't come back the previous year. I just... You say all that, but remember, go back look, year over year, over year, their record in one score games, and the record of the Steelers as underdogs.

Nobody matches Tomlin for that. And they ran that playbook to a T last year. Seven and three last year, one score, plus 12 turnover margin. You know, I just think that's the DNA from that with also having a better offense. Yeah, they could get. The funny thing is they're going to get as far as they did. That's absolutely the furthest. Who they play, Houston, the first round.

And got smoke. You play the outdoor game. And now you got a 40-something year old quarterback who has to get rid of the ball. Yeah, I don't think they're winning a playoff round. I just think there's a path for 10 and 7. And most of it has to do with Cincinnati, but I kind of wish I'd pick for 9 and 8. But I just, I couldn't, I really had trouble finding AFC wins. I was really low on everybody.

Like, I added it up and I was like, ah, fuck, like I'm seven wins lower than I need to be. Don't tip your hand here. You added seven wins to teams. You gave five of the first. We've done two divisions in the AFC. and you have five of those teams at least 10 wins. Yeah, he found the place to give them. He has Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Stency.

Yeah, I'm in the Buffalo. That's 50 wins. And I know he has Houston at 15 wins. I don't think. Maybe I need to move Cincinnati to 9 and 8. Move them to the NFC. All right. Last one is Cleveland.

Cleveland was my favorite sleeper for about two weeks during the part of the summer when you start talking yourself into teams. Yeah. They're over under's five and a half. Playoffs plus 640, worst record 6 to 1. Last year,

they were 5 and 12. They had a harder schedule, a worse roster in the same terrible QB situation they're in now. They also had Miles Garrett and they had Jim Schwartz and Stefansky. What if the Browns bracket gets to get like a C-minus from the QB position? What if Watson has a little. bit of a turn around or Sanders comes in, like just a C-minus, not even a C-plus. Could this team win like eight games?

No, C-minus still gets them to seven games, I think. Okay. I think. I mean, this is a laughable situation. And a mutual friend of ours who hates the Browns said, as this Deshaun Watson signing, handcuffed them more than any other player in any franchise ever for as long as it has. Now, the counter to that is they always make mistakes. anyway, the Brown's ownership.

They weren't going to win anyway. They were just going to fuck it up with somebody else. Yeah. But in terms of like morally corrupt, going in and then signing him and giving them the big money. And then for him to go out there

and say, why am I getting booed? How dare they? It was like, who's going to get booed if you don't get booed? You played 19 games in three years. You've been horrific and they can't move on because of you. And now you're the starter. It's pretty rare. Like you see teams or players like they bum out their fan base.

suck the life out of them. You rarely see the fan base enraged. Yeah. It's the hardest thing to do. Like when the Red Sox traded Mooky Betts, like we were enraged. We really made us mad. This is like a whole other level.

I don't even know. There's no one, right? This is like somebody walking in on their wife or husband just having sex with the doorman. Yeah. And not even normal sex. Like a crazy position house.

Right. Lord. Yeah. I thought House, why. Why? Yeah. Sorry, house.

Yeah. No, but just like, you walk in. on something pretty crazy. Right. What was the movie, The Hangover, when the people are showing up for the orgy?

Not the Hangover, old school. Luke Wilson comes home and his girlfriend is that people are coming up for the orgy. It's like that. The Browns fans are like that level. Not only is their life collapsing. For five years. It's been a five year orgy.

Four years, right? Well, some stuff in their favor. Miles Garrett, turns out he is eligible for the Ewing theory. They won jack shit with them. Great player. They had another, monster. They've had two awesome drafts in a row.

This one was like, they got a new left tackle. Concepcion in Boston. Everybody loves these guys at receiver. They got McNeil Warren at safety. All those guys were top 60 picks. The last draft was Fanon, Judkins,

and Schweringer, the defensive rookie of the year. There was one more, and Judkins. Do you say Judkins? Yeah, they're running back. Yeah. They have young talent anywhere. And I, again, I thought Stefanski was terrible last year. Like, to the point it seemed like he was throwing games, but he might have just been bad. There are offensive lines iffier and no Jim Schwartz, who sadly they couldn't keep or figure out how to have co-

coaches. Yeah, here's why I think your C-minus quarterback thing won't hold up. I don't think the defense will be narrowly as good. They boast, like, having 45 straight games without allowing a 300-yard passer. Guess why? Because Miles Garrett is getting double-teamed. Jared versus a nice player, but it's not going to be the same thing. So you're not buying that.

the Ewing theory. They're going to have to score 27 to win a lot of games, I think. One case for them is how awful their schedule is. I mean, how awfully good it is for them. Rogers twice, Bryce, Gino, Cam Ward, Cousins, Straub, Shuck, Tua, DART, Jones, or all quarterbacks they play. So if their defense is good, they really, there is a path for them to get to 7 and 10, even if they're just handing the ball off every, you know, for four quarters. I have them as a slight under at 5 and 12, and you could even talk to me in a 4 and 13. And the reason is, now it would be the most Browns thing ever

for them to fuck up their chance to finally get a quarterback by having a bad pick. But I just, how are the incentives aligned to do this? Like, we just saw Hazamones, the Bucks. He could have traded Janus for Jalen and picks, right? And tried to be good.

And instead they tanked and they're going to rebuild. And I don't understand that. Well, he's used to being wrong, But they did ask Haslam or he offered it. I think they asked him. They told him it was five and a half. This is over on there. I'm serious.

And he said he would go over. Right. So that's just something else he's going to be wrong about. That's probably what the only thing we've needed to discuss in terms of picking this. So they have Watson for two games at Jags at Bucks. Yeah. Jason Lloyd, who does a good job at the athletic wrote a piece about they're telling, they're telling you all what they think of Shreder Sanders by how they've handled this.

Like they obviously just don't think he's good. Right. And there's no other, unless they trade for, I don't know, Stetson Bennett or Tyson Baygent. Jimmy G's a free agent. Yeah. Talk to me. If you're Jimmy G, do you want to go play for the Browns and get the shit kicked out of you? I'm a slight under.

I'm 5 and 12. 5 and 12 is where I have it to. I couldn't go over on this. House, your thoughts on this division? Yeah, so I am drinking the Cincinnati Kool-Aid. I knew you would. You have to believe that the offensive line, that the idea of continuity, even though they were substandard in execution,

that the guy's returning, that there's an upside to it. That's the only way this makes any sense because you have appropriately criticized that offensive line. And it has been the thing that's held them back because they can't keep Joe Burrow upright. But when he's upright with all those weapons, now I have a view, you and I talked about this before taping today, I think that defense is potentially sneaky good.

It took them a while to get used to Al Golden, who came over from Notre Dame. I'm in on this too. of the season. We talked about this. And the splits for them, the latter half of the season, he did some things that uncomplicated assignments. He altered the scheme. And they all got on the same page. Now, you pointed out, look at who they played. I was in on this theory until I looked who they played. But he won me over for 10 seconds with this theory. And then we went and actually looked who they played. What about you can only play who's on your

schedule? No. I think there were reasons. And it was a very good defense against those shit teams and those shit quarterbacks and this schedule that the Bengals have in front of them, that's what really bolsters the case. I love what you're doing with Baltimore. And I don't really disagree. I just, to me as a brand new coach, I have Jesse Minter in this Baltimore team in the exact same place as Seattle with Mike McDonald. They want 10 games as soon as Mike McDonald arrived. And then Super Bowl the second year, I think it's going to take them one year to kind of get their legs. That defense was so bad last year, that Baltimore defense. That's what let them down more than any other thing.

Jim Harbaugh, the Harbaugh coach and the, and the defense. So 10 wins for Baltimore is good. It's crazy to me that they arrived at 11.5. They were the top win total in the AFC for most of the summer. It just dropped down as we're, you know, everybody's starting to pay attention to 10 and a half.

So I have Cincinnati at like 11 wins, Baltimore at 10, and then I think Pittsburgh's taking a big step back. You have to like really give credence to what, Tomlin did in one-score games. It's not just last year when 70% of their wins were one-score games. It's Tomlin year after year after year. I'm not in on that.

And then Browns in last. I get it. I wonder how much of it is just the franchise and the identity of the city and just weird shit happening year after year with them. 18 years of Tomlin for that. But we're going to find out now that he's not there if it was Tomlin or if it was something deeper. The Trey Andrickson, I know we touched on it, but it's a key piece to this division,

whether or not the race makes the Ravens better. there's the belief that he's 31 years old. He missed, what, nine or ten games last year? You're not getting the best version of Trey Hendrickson. And if that's the case, kudos to... I always thought he's pretty good when you played. Yeah. Well, I wanted to mention quickly Fando's NFL Futures reward stack,

where it's basically, it's a five-pack house, unrestricted, two unrestricted, it's a make or miss playoffs, regular season wins, player milestones. You can do any of those, and you get the 50% profit boost token, aka the P-P-T, P-PT.

That's what I call. Profit-B-B-T token. P-B-T. Part of my speech dyslexia. No. Fandoz is covered. You have until Monday, August 31st,

the last day of August, as it turns out, to hop in on this. I would highly encourage it. That's tomorrow. We've given you a bunch of picks. Yeah. Yeah.

You've given you a bunch of great picks. And what's your favorite? Do we have a player one for the AFC or have we not gotten to it yet? Are you like if you had to do it over? Yours is A.J. Brown, right? Yeah, I would do any A.J. Brown. Yeah.

I'd probably do the touchdowns for A.J. Brown. Yeah. Because I think there's going to be some fuck you touchdowns in there. Be my guess. Does Fandle list fuck you touchdowns? I mean, is it? I search for fuck you and I can find it. Like a six and a half or something for Henry.

Two and five kids. Canadians will hear the words, you have cancer. That's why every step and dollar raised matters. On September 19th, join thousands in Toronto for the Princess Margaret Cancer Foundation Walk. Challenge yourself, friends, and family to walk 21 kilometers in support of life-saving research. Together, we can carry the fire and help create a world free from the fear of cancer. Register today at pmcfwalk.ca. All right.

The most boring part of the podcast and every ringer podcast is the AFC South and the Houston Texans. It's rare we're all aligned on a team. I had to make some moves to be able to get these Houston Betson in a month ago that I don't want to talk about. I love this. Please talk about it. He made some moves. I'm going to talk about it. Talk about it and then think about it. My daughter's boyfriend, Hank, who's a great kid.

but turn 21 this summer, as did my daughter. And Fandole is in Massachusetts, obviously. And there was a couple of bets I really wanted to get in. I wanted, there was UCLA overs. But Houston, the market had not shifted appropriately yet. I can't have my daughter do it. My dad would have no idea how to do it. But Hank, I really trust Hank.

I let Hank log into my Fandoas as me. I get the code to make sure it's me to my phone. I give him the code. He logs in. and I have all this money that I had from last year because I actually hit a bunch of futures last year and he's putting in bets for me and honestly it was the closest I've ever felt to Hank.

It's a real bonding moment for us. A week later, called the boat. It's right it back. We did some more. You know what's great about this for Hank? You know, the groom is traditionally supposed to ask the father of the bride if she could have her hand. Do I have your blessing?

And he's like, oh, no, I have his family. handle password. I definitely have his blessing to take his daughter. If Zoe calls, it was like, Dad, I broke up with Hank. I'm like, hold on. I can't change my password. It's the greatest. Anyway, Hank. Have you told her

she needs to give you a heads up if they're going to break up so you can change the password before? Inside information. She needs, yeah, you need that. She's going to give it to Adam Schaefter. He read. Adam Schaefter. What did you say? What was the weird? I don't know. I don't. You dead fished house.

He met, House met Adam Schaefter a couple years ago. Like a pretty, not that big country club golf thing. That's a very nice charity event. Very nice. And House went up to him knowing that he'd been, Adam Shepter had been on my podcast.

Obviously House is, and introduced himself and I'm at the ringer. I just want to express my admiration. It wasn't like I'm not here to talk for 10 minutes. It wasn't an earbender. I didn't show up with intentions. And I made it clear that I would move right on. I was near the bar.

was a drive-by? He's just dead fished house. Was he on two phones at the time? House didn't tell us this for two years. Yeah, what the hell, House? Why are you holding this in? I've been saving it. He really was...

He didn't need to be so mean to Jed York. So I had to share the story now. Okay. He was really upset about Jed York. I've known House since 1988. This is less than three stories of people who have dead fished house. Yeah. Everybody loves House.

You don't deadfish House. I couldn't believe it. How dare anyone's mean to House? Houston Texans over nine and a half. Yeah, yes. Divisions plus 120. Signed me up for that. Playoffs minus 176.

Thread that in any parlay. Number one seed plus 950. 12 plus wins plus 220. You love this. Best record 12 to 1. Long story case on why I love this, but I'll give you the what if. What if they can semi-salvaged shroud this year? C plus strapped.

Just give me a C plus. Yeah, well, and listen, he was fine except for those playoffs. And those playoff games is what cost him an extension, right? Like, he really should have been recent. Anybody else would have. But then what did he do? Five interceptions, six sacks, no touchdowns, maybe showing up to training camp with the awkward backpack. And like he's about to present his social studies project, that might have heard to.

But other than that, it doesn't really matter. It really doesn't. Like, they get so much pressure from Dinell Hunter and Will Anderson. who they extended, and that's all they kind of need defensively. They're the scariest team in the league, and that's why, as long as they're healthy, they're bulletproofed the rest of the way.

I felt like I was taking crazy pills the entire off-season. The best defense in the league, it's the best. Nobody would argue it. They didn't lose anybody from the defense and added Blankenship, right? So everybody's back. I thought they were probably the best team last year, and Stroud just fucked them in that game.

Why did he fuck them? bad offensive line. They had the worst running backs in the league and they had wide receiver injuries and I just think he lost his confidence as the year went along. Montgomery, not be going to tell my grandkids that I saw David Montgomery

run the ball in the NFL. Your grandkids are going to have your password to say that. Yeah, my grandkids are like, grandpa, I'm on your fiendool. But Montgomery's really solid. They had Nick Chubb last year who just retired.

Yeah. And they had Woody marks, and it was just a rotating, you know, and now they're competent there. They have, wide receivers deeper. They have red zone woes, definitely. And Montgomery should solve a few of those. Really frustrating if you bet on them last year.

I had them Netees to watch them. Collins, the two rookies from last year, they're back. Higgins is hurt, but Noel's back. And then Tank Dell is in the Higgins spot. And then they traded for Booty, who I really liked. And then the offensive line is the question.

It's not great, and it's the one red flag. To me, the offensive line, I'm much more worried about than Stratt. The problem is, I mean, the problem for the rest of the conference in the week, their defense is so fucking good. I'm not really sure it's going to matter that much. Like, they're going to have leads.

They're going to just absolutely smoke teams. In my rankings, I had them at 27 points. I had seven guys that got points on their defense. Anderson, Hunter, Al Shire, Stingley, Lassar, Bullock, and Petrae. And that's not, that blanket ship didn't even get it.

Fair Baron is one of the best kickers in the league. Ryan's, I think, is like one of the seven best coaches. Right. And I think their defense and the coaching and the special teams can carry this. Seventh easiest strength of schedule. First three out of four are home. It's all looking good.

I would put it this way. Is it were you that all in on this? Yeah. It's my only thing that scared like, I felt like as everybody was, getting behind them. Higgins blew out his ACL like the next day almost. That wasn't great. But I also feel

there's a lot of Stroud talk I think they could be 10 wins plus with Davis Mills and he shows he could win games only because you only have to score like 17 points to win some of these games. It's a good point. I like Davis Mills. If I was Cleveland, I would trade my third round pick for him.

And yet they had 404 points last year, which was the second most in franchise history. Here's the thing with Stroud. At least Stroud has done it. At least we know he was good at one point, which was only two, three years ago. And at least we know there were real reasons he wasn't

good last year. They couldn't block, they couldn't run the ball. He had nobody to throw the ball to. Lost his confidence. That's fine. Bills bangles to start the season both at home. We're no lot more after week, too. They own the bills. I think

this defense, I think they thought they were the best team last year. right they're going in this year they're like we're the best team in the afc we're going to go show it so i have them uh it's an over it's a lock for me 12 and 5 12 and 5 is the same i have them they have this georgia tech guard who i think allowed two sacks in 43 games they're shoring up that offensive line as much as they can i got a michigan tight end so i don't know and that that schedule what did we say four prime time they play the jags in london four night road games yes jags in london so That's not awesome.

No teams coming off a by. They face no teams coming off of buys. AFC South goes, AFC North and NFC East. So not awesome. They play Allen, Burrow, Dak, Herbert,

Lamar Love, Daniels, and Hertz. And I'm not sure that's going to matter. They end the season with the Titans, which could be dangerous

for the 12 plus wins bet if they've had whatever quenched. Well, the right hedge if you had, and got that far. All in. I really like the coach,

too. I think he's good. I think they probably, probably should have beaten the pads last year. Like Straub just single-handedly screwed the game up, but we can do anything against their defense. And then eventually the defense realized, like, oh, we're just screwed.

Jacksonville, eight and a half, plus two-tenth for the division, 27 to one for Super Bowl, minus 106 for the playoffs. Really the most dead even of all the playoffs. Full plus wins, plus 360, under seven-and-a-half wins, plus 190. This is yet another turnover regression team.

Everybody's been regressing. for this. It's a regression orgy. Just these regression teams. But what if there's a crazy turnover regression coming for them? And then you pick apart the streak at the end. That eight games, they're averaging 32 a game and you actually go back and

look at some of those games. The only really super impressive one was Denver. Right? And there's some other ones. Like, they played indie twice during that stretch after Jones had already gotten hurt. I can't get there with this team. I don't know. This is the one where my reasoning doesn't match up with my pick at all. And I have them at 10 wins. And last year we sat here and I picked them to win the division. And because Travis Hunter's been great. And Brian Thomas Jr. is going to have a great, oh, what a sophomore year. Neither would happen. And one didn't play. One barely played. And it was terrible. And it was all Jacobi Myers coming in. And Lawrence, like, stepping up like we, no one's business. At the end's gone. Again, I don't know why I'm ignoring the regression here. They had what, six one score games and top.

three and takeaways. But I do think this is just one of my gut feelings. I'm going under because I think Indianapolis takes a tumble. And I think Lawrence has the confidence to get them the double-digit wins at this point. So you're under on the Jags? No, well, is it 10-half? It's 8.5. Yeah, I'm going 10 wins.

Yeah. So you're over. Over. Yeah. I'm under. It's juice to the over. Yeah. I have them at 8, 9.

You could talk me into 9 and 8. You cannot talk me in the 10. My biggest thing with them, you know, this Hunter trade they did, which cost them a lot of draft capital. Like, their draft sucked. I think they had the worst draft in the league. And all the people I know who liked the draft also thought it was the worst draft

that anyone had. The tight end was like 19 catches. Yeah, it was just weird. Yeah, it was not good. They lost ETN. They lost Lloyd. They were playing, I guess, Tudin, hopefully. Keep your fingers crossed.

We talked about him on Tuesday's spot. Below average offensive line, that's another thing I don't like. And then the Brian Thomas Jr. where it's like, no, no, he's doing great. It's like, I had him last year. I'd never taken that guy again. A lot of red flags.

From a roster standpoint, I had them at 15. And that's what's giving Parker Washington a two. I only had three guys on defense that I thought were impactful. And I don't like the schedule at all. They have nine road games plus two in London. So they have six home games in Jacksonville. And then 11 games at all other locations. And defenses they go against this year.

Cleveland, Denver, New England, Philly, Houston twice, Baltimore, Giants, if they're good in a shootout with the Bears. But I couldn't get there. Yeah, again, I don't have a lot to, they have to get to December. Like, that's what they have kind of easier. They end with Dallas, Washington, and Indianapolis. I think they have 35 days between home games because they're doing renovations on their stadium. But I have them winning both London games.

So that's what I'm in the 10. So that includes beating the Texans. Yeah. So I had them getting swept by the Texans, which then puts them eight and seven for everybody else. Sure. And I think there are a 500 team. I don't feel great about it.

I certainly wouldn't make it a lock or anything. I just don't understand the letting E. And then you get Tutin and Krund and then you get Tutin and Chris Rodriguez, has this guy. Do you watch him last year thinking? He's fine. He's a third stringer. Like a run in the middle, third stringer.

The problem for this team is- their run game was so important for them. They have a doofist GM. James Gladstone. We can call him out by name. He's a goofball. He's on the wrong side. Like, all of the draft analysts,

he's picking guys, you know, 30 spots earlier than where consensus has guys. And he's done it for two years. He grossly overpaid for Travis Hunter. He's the single biggest impediment to this team advancement because Colm is good. He's a good head coach. Did he dead fish you? Is that why you're upset? I don't know.

He did a chance. Wow. House was like, hey, you know, I'm doing it. And he's like, hey, nice to do it. Indianapolis Colts over eight and a half. Tale of two seasons last year. Yeah. Number one seed, 25 to 1.

I'm going to rule that out. Under six and a half wins plus 210. Division plus 340. What if Daniel Jones, who blew his Achilles out halfway through last season is not 100% this season. No doubt. How can you pick this team for a winning record if it's Daniel Jones, not 100%.

Yeah. I don't see the case. This is my lock under. 6 and 11. Sorry, Tony Tokens. Tony and all the token family, everybody. Yeah. I'm going under here.

I think you're right. I think we'd have to do exactly what he did last year, which means use his legs to extend plays. And I don't think it's happening. And Pierce just came off. the PUP as far as... That part may be nervous, too. Big contract for Pierce,

hasn't got the surgery after the contract or whatever the timeline was. And now it doesn't seem like he's 100%. I don't know why I'm digging them. They lost Pittman. I'm dinging them for what Jacksonville did, too. They had turnovers in 15 games. They forced turnovers.

So I don't think that's happening again. I think this is a 6 and 11 team. Ravens Week 1, at Chiefs Week 2, Texans, week 3. Yeah. That's 0 and 3. with Daniel Jones on one leg, basically. I think you can keep going.

He shouldn't play. It's worse and worse. It's crazy. I really was thinking about a lock. Should we lock this down together? The other part of it is Lou Anirumo's the second version of his defense. I like it less and less.

The bend don't break? Yeah, the bend don't break. I think it breaks. Yeah, I mean, nine and eight, I'm not going to lock it. Top three tacklers gone. Franklin, Cross, Pratt. I might lock it.

I'm going to keep thinking about it. All right. Their first aid out I do not enjoy. Good offensive line, though. I'm not going to lock it. Like Tyler Warren. Sure. Taylor was great last year.

They get a full sauce gardener season. We'll see if Ward can avoid the concussions. All right. Titans over five and a half. Under four and a half is plus 220. Worst records plus 750. I'm not giving you the other ones. They did bring in Big Shot Bob

Sala, Dayball. What if Cam Ward doesn't have it? What if he just doesn't have it? What if he's not good? The advanced stats against him were horrific last year. But they also had the worst coach probably this decade. He's got to show a little more than once a month doing that thing where he rolls right and he's almost stepping out of bounds, but then heaves it across the field, the coffin corner.

The video game play. Yeah, it's a little bit of like a hell Mary and did that like twice. And everyone's like, oh, maybe there's something there. But yeah, you're right. The EPA, everything, it's way under. Really, like abysmally bad. No good. You can't even compare it to, I don't know, Drake May's rookie year.

Like, if you watch Drake May that year, like, man, this guy, I was really bullish on him after the year. He's running for his life, but he was making plays and seemed like a winning quarterback. And Ward, I want him to be good. We need more good quarterbacks. I just don't know if he's good. And, again, there's a pressure on us to go from a four to a one, the fourth place to a first place. I did put them at eight wins. I do think Wondell Robinson's going to help

and Carnell Tate. Like that'll be as good a wide receiver. Eight wins this year? Yeah, this year, 2026. 8 and 9 happened. Yeah. It's okay. What's wrong? Do you hear this as?

House, he needs help. What? You've Tennessee at 8 and 9? Yeah. Gus Bradley defensive coordinator. You got Salah in there. He's terrible. It's fine.

It's going to be good. Well, 8 and 9. They were at 6 and a half nearly all summer in terms of the win total. And then here we are and it's down to five and a half. Lock me in.

But juice to the over. Franklin Myers, that Denver player is really good. They locked him in. I think the defense will be better. They spent over almost $300 million on free agent 10. So it's six wins is minus 135. And Cous is saying there's a possibility

for two more. And the schedule is... Including that week 18 game that you talked about. Yeah. Right. They drafted Tate and they signed Wondell Robinson, so he's got two weapons. They have the Jets and Giants, too, out of the first three weeks.

That's going to tell the story of the season. That's Sala and Daebel. That'll be fun, for sure. I don't mean to be a dick because he seems like a great guy and Schrager likes him, even if Schrager won't come on my podcast anymore. What? No, he won't. That more dead fish.

It's like team ESPN now. Yeah. Okay. Still friends with them, friendly, friendly, but just won't come on. Meena. Meena's on ESPN. She comes on. Shraig's turned down multiple invitations.

Really? Wow. I'm playing a lot of golf. No kidding. You play golf? You're here? I know. I had for their roster.

I had offensive line two. Yeah. Simmons three points. Stonehouse won. That was really all the guys that got points in this defense. Even Franklin Myers. I wouldn't like it. I wouldn't have put points for it.

Here's the thing, though. Big shot Bob Sala mentioned friend of Schrager. He was terrible on the Jets. Yeah. Remember, like we called him A Kid Salah. We talked about what a fucking train wreck that team was. They didn't have a lot of help. Their defense was always pretty good with him, but, you know.

And then Dayball was a maniac in the giant sideline. So I don't know. I can't get there with this. We're forced to take a fourth place team, and I won't put one in the playoffs like this, but they can go a win and a half over their expectation, right house? Why not? Yeah, that's all.

They basically have to beat the Jets Week one in the Sala revenge game. because after that, if I'm looking for wins at Giants, maybe, at Colts, home browns, one of the Jags games, home commanders, at Raiders. Yeah. Now you're in that six-ish. But you have to win 80% of those. Yeah. I'm going 5 and 12 under.

I don't feel great about it. How's the AFC South talk to us? Yeah, I mean, we're so bullish on Houston and we all bet. them, I'm all the way up at like, you know, 12 wins, the alt win total for Houston. The most important thing for them to me is giving their offensive coordinator, Kaylee, the opportunity to run Stroud out of under center. And that's going to translate into a bunch of opportunities with motion and all kinds of stuff. Like, we didn't see their offense because they thought Joe Mixon was going to play running back for them

until the goddamn season started. They didn't have a plan B. So this is the version of the offense, and I think it really helps settle down the offensive line as well. So that's part of the case for being bullish on Houston. The Jacksonville thing is so fucking weird. They were 13 wins, and the market said, congratulations. We think you're at 8.5 win team. 13 last year, and now here's your win total.

Why don't you get pissed about this? With the Patriots, you didn't like the disrespect? I have no counter. And yet I think it's the right number. number because of this GM stinks. They're not replenishing. They're letting guys walk and they're not replenishing. That's the problem.

The Patriots actually got better. Oh, okay. The Jaguars got worse by any way you want to look at it. They have worse players than they did last year. It's just a fact. I'm mystified by the Colts. I think Stuyken is incredible. And what he showed us over the first seven games last year.

It was like, what a revelation that nobody had the Colts coming out and leading the league and efficiency and scoring and all the rest of it. But I cannot. I will not and cannot, and under any circumstances, endorse a guy coming off in Achilles in this short period of a time. Right. And think that that, oh, that's a Zuber. Their quarterback room with impaired Daniel Jones and Riley, Leonard,

and Anthony Richardson. That's as bad as it gets to. Richardson moved down to third, by the way, on a debt chart. Yes, Riley Leonard's. So I'm under on the Jaguars, the Titans, and the Colts. Yeah. It'll over on the Texans. I think this is a one-horse division.

Right. His house was worried. was taking too many 10 plus 10 plus wins yeah kind of running out you're gonna have a couple here you worked it out but there should be a couple more this there's a way this division might actually be in the running against nfc south for at least wins fewest wins huh i would favor them it's be a good fandle thing 36 i gave you a fc south one and a half wins more than the nfc south who do you take well i have seven and tens all over so i have to take i may have 28 for npsc south so three and half. What would be the number? Three and a half.

36 for, uh, yeah, that's, that's probably the number. You can do this. It's available on family. You can take divisions, uh, and there are odds available right now, division matchups. But not spreads, but yeah, not spreads, that's right. But you can get an implied probability out of it. I love it. I had Hank to, uh, had Hank to, uh, what a scandal. The Browns plus 200 against Atlanta. You did? The head to head. Yeah. Stephansky?

Yeah. Oh, interesting. Yeah. Just like, yeah, it's two to one. That's fun. Figured they'd probably push. Yeah. All right.

And this is our last one, AFC West. Hank is led away in cuffs. Thanks. Thanks, buddy. Thanks for us live. Two and five Canadians will hear the words you have cancer. That's why every step and dollar raised matters. On September 19th, join thousands in Toronto for the Princess Margaret Cancer Foundation walk.

Challenge yourself, friends and family to walk 21 kilometers in support of life-saving research. Together, we can carry the fire and help create a world free from the fear of cancer. Register today at pmcfwalk.ca. AFC West, Denver Broncos,

over nine and a half. They won 11 games last year. Nine and a half this year, division two to one. Playoffs minus 148. 12 plus wins plus 250. What if this? This was actually the best AFC team last year. You have two teams that are probably spent the whole offseason going,

we should have been in the Super Bowl. I think this one, maybe Buffalo, I don't know if Buffalo fired their coach immediately, but I definitely think Houston and Denver were both like, how the fuck did we not make the Super Bowl? I still don't know what happened to Bo Nix. Was it the last play of the game? In the locker room?

It really was nuts. Did we even say anything? Really was nuts. So what are your thoughts this year? Denver was very kind to us last year. Futures was one of the big hits last year. But it was a down year for the division in terms of, you know, Mahomes out there.

They had two score, one score wins against the Chiefs. Chargers got decimated. Yeah, Chargers decimated. The Raiders were the Raiders. This team, I don't know really what to do with them because I think they're very good.

I kind of liken them to the Bears, so I know you love. But it's the same sort of one score lock, you know, turnover lock, 11 and 2 and one score games, one in six in 2024. They trailed in 15 games. They won 14 games and trailed in 15.

Now, I don't want to kill Bo Nix for having that clutch gene, because that's all that means. He trailed and they brought him back. We watch that giant game together. That was insane. I would normally sign up for a five-game decrease. I mean, I wouldn't sign up, but their first six, laughably difficult.

Casey, Jacksonville, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, Seahawks. I won't say which is home, which is away. I think that's three and three at best. But they're playing the Chiefs on a Monday night in KC. Yeah. When, first of all, is Mahomes is like, no, I'm feeling good. Like, it's his first game. It's to be weird emotion there.

I don't know. If I'm playing Atkins City, that's the game I want to play, week one. Really? I want to come right at them before Mahomes is settled and he's back to himself. I don't even know who their receivers are. Yeah. The defense, I think, is a shame. below Houston.

And that's what's going to keep them in games. Like Vance Joseph, they have 68 and 63 sacks over the last two years. I have more stuff for you than everything you laid out. I mean, their defense is really good. It's not top three, but it's probably top six. They had the best offensive line in either conference. Yeah. I got them seven points for the offensive line.

They don't give up sacks. Traded for Waddle. They have two receivers that I gave two points each to, Waddle and Sutton. And Waddle, I think, will really help Bo Nix. And then they have Sean Payton, who's one of the, of the six best coaches in the league. So I can block, I can defend, and I have a really good coaching staff. I'm not as scared about the schedule. Week 10 through 15 are pretty easy. Buy week, Raiders, at Steelers, Dolphins, at Jets, at Raiders. And then they get the Chargers the last

week. I'm, I'm going over. I mean, that's... Oh, I'm not only going over. I'm 11 and 6 and over lock. This is one of my locks. I'm in on Denver. Wow. I don't understand why there's just too much of a foundation here. Like, we talk about, like, Cincinnati, like one injury that thing can fall apart. This team has, like, things can happen and they'll still be okay. And things happened last year and they were okay,

but they really happened. I mean, the one score. It's a little bit of a window team, too. They're in a little bit of a similar spot with the Pats where it's Nick's on a rookie deal. Right. Where you were able to spend this money all these different ways. I really like R.J. Harvey.

I thought he had real moments last year. I want to see more from him, Waddle's a good pickup. He throws short, anything at the line of scrimmage and stuff, he's going to make a big play out of... Our fantasy guys were really bullish on Waddle. They were just like, this guy, talk about bad

quarterbacks. You know, he's put a big stats last year with just absolute crap. So, I'm in. This is my favorite team in the division, and I like the division two to one odds. I already bet that. I have the over. Like, I'm in on this team.

All right. I have nine and eight. I think that's a team. tough, tough or always stretch three and three out of those six. Okay. Next team is the Kansas City Chiefs over is nine and a half division plus 175. They better division odds than the Denver Broncos. Go fucking figure that one. Minus 174 for the playoffs plus 146 not to make the playoffs.

Under eight and a half wins is plus 190. 13 plus is plus 440. They were six and 11 last year. They basically flipped their secondary. They lost McGuffie. They drafted Delane as, what was he, like the six pick in the draft. They moved up. They moved up to get him.

They drafted him in a defensive tackle on an edge all in the top 40. People like Cyrus Allen as a wide receiver's sleeper. Mahomes is allegedly healthy. So when this happened to Brady after the ACO, the 08 season, they still went 10 and 6 without him. And then he came back the next year and there's like this little dark run here of 2009 in 2010 before they rebooted and ran off the next thing.

They were still good. They were like 10 and 6 one year, the 13 and 3 the other year. They had the number one offense. I just don't see the talent with Kansas City. Like I don't feel like there's a foundation. And it's weird to hear people talk about Andy Reid. Like, well, and they have homes and Reed.

And it's like, Reed was terrible last year. year. Their coaching staff was terrible. All the stories that came out from Kansas City was that the team was unfocused, that guys were lazy coming out of meetings and like that it was kind of like, you know, the classic, the players were running the team. And yeah, I don't see it. Like, they sent Kenneth Walker. Okay. Rishie Rice might not be in jail for most of the year. Fine. Were these healthy? Are we sure he's good? Um, it's a lot of like glass half full. with them because they're the chiefs. I would argue this is like

the rebuilding year to lead to next year. Like Kelsey, I just feel like I didn't even give him points. I think it's over for him as an impact guy. And then Chris Jones is but 32, 33. Just feels like they're going to move into this different era. And I think they know it from the way

they treated trading guys and the draft and trying to get picks. I think this is a transition year for them. I'm under. I'm under at 8-9. I feel like I shouldn't say anything. I don't want to get in your way here. But no, and maybe I just have this old man approach to romanticizing the chiefs and saying, I don't blame you. Oh, my God, you could get them to win 10 games and you'll get, that's the over.

You're good with that. And I think when we give our top three or four quarterbacks, it's always still going to be my homes in there. Right. And so I'm going to take the over until he gives me a reason not to. Everything you say is true. But over here is 10 and 7. Yeah, for him.

10 and 7. And you said, what you said is true. Like he thrives when Travis Kelsey's good and fast and not lumbering. And anyone who is Travis Kelsey on your fantasy team or is waiting for the Taylor Swift cutaway knows he doesn't get that 14-yard pass until like the late in the third quarter. Like he's in a dollar in our league this year? Yeah. I think like my wife took him in her draft.

Yes. I'm like, ugh, what is that? Then she yelled at me. She's like, oh, we have to root for a time. I'm like, yeah, I don't know. Take Goddard there. You screwed up. But they, the NFL has a way of doing Mahomes of favor.

and they did it this year. And the rehab bowl against Bo Nix, it's the very last game of week one. So they gave him enough time. They gave him an easy early schedule. First of all, he has a buy in week five. And then what are the first three? I forget now I forget.

It's Broncos, Coles, Dolphins, Raiders, buy. Right. Just trying to buy him as much time as he needs. So maybe they're three in one or four or no. I'm just not ready to close the book on them. I see getting B enemy back as a positive. I know people laugh at that. because we're talking about the old guard and everything.

And I think the Kenneth Walker signing is like solid. We talk about like these, it's overbloded if you take a Super Bowl MVP. Cowboys had one, Larry Brown, right, when he was in the right time against Neil Old Donald. Larry Brown was where my brain was going.

I think this is like, with the, you know, lacking the tight end outlet pass, I think Kenneth Walker on the screen is going to be the outlet and it's going to help Mahomes. And I think it's going to make the offense good enough it's the defense who did okay through the draft.

The second is really young. That's the thing. Week 12 through 17 at Bills, at Rams, both on Thursdays, at Bengals, home Patriots on a Monday night, 49ers, at Chargers, all in a row. Right. I can't get there with it. And it's, it reminded me of the early 2020s,

Pat's when we were giving Belichick all that respect and rope, because he was Belichick. check. And it's like at some point, this is, you get older. Any of the older coaches that you answered your own question with the old guard. I thought Reid was out to lunch last year. And I think he's the most media protected QB in either conference, especially with all the shit that happens to that team off the field.

Well, Shanahan's the most media. Well, Shannon for law, law enforcement and. Yeah. But the read is like, everybody's looking the other way. Is this, he's going to be 70 soon? Like, this is, I don't know. Now, there was six and 11. They had a plus 34 point differential.

That, I think, is important. And they never. And they lost some stupid games. The Jaguars game is the dumbest loss probably the year. They went from nine, one score wins to one. Yeah. They're never in the middle. It's either like 10, 10, 10.

That's the concerning thing to your point. You're going to ride with Mahomes until he proves that you shouldn't do that. Well, he did have five, fifth quarter touchdown, fourth quarter interceptions last year. He was six and eight. He did. And by the way, he got hurt at the closer to the end of the season when it was already done. six and eight. Like he should get a little more crap.

House feels more strongly than I do. Yeah, I'm way out on this Kansas City team. I don't, I mean, this is, you have to do what you're doing, which is say, priors, and that's the case for this Kansas City team. Pryors aren't playing in the secondary for this team. Priors aren't, this pass rush for the, for the chiefs has been worse year over year, and they haven't done anything to improve the pass rush. So you have one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL with a pass rush.

Their defense was the reason that they lost games last. year. The offense was, Mahomes had a pretty good year efficiency-wise. And he ran- His offensive line was awful. And it's not much better this year coming in. Below average this year. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. I get it. But it's always been like that. Mahomes would come back with an ACO.

And like anytime they're in a big game, fourth quarter, he takes off, he runs, he uses his legs. Is he going to do that again? No, if he doesn't, it's done. Is he going to be more stationary? Like Brady, I didn't feel, even though the stats were relatively the same. I felt like it took him two years to get the guys falling around your knees. I just don't think they go one and five in the division again. So give them, if they go three and three, now they're back up to eight.

I think they can get to ten. I think this is all reputation. So what do we do? Would we just argue until one of us can reach to the other? No, we're going to move to the next team. They play a lot of good QBs too. Drake May, Burrow, Herbert twice, Allen, Stafford, Knicks twice, Darnham, purdy.

Chargers, nine and half. I went back and forth on this one the most of all 32 teams.

You did. Division plus 195. I think that's a good bet. I think Chargers and Broncos are good

bets. Like you could argue bet both of those and just try to hit one and hope nobody else beats you.

Playoffs minus 158, number one seed plus 800. Under 7. a half is plus 310. Best record,

14 and 1. They were 11 and 6 last year. Year 3 of Harbaugh, He wins 11 games every year. Yep. I think he's in the 10 win club, which is ultimately why I put him at 10 wins.

Mikey Mac is the new DJ. He's coming in. It's a new DJ. He's going to use some salsa and some disco. He's going to play some Omarian. People like the rookie pass rusher. The bad side, they lost Jesse Minter. They already lost their center.

Their guards suck too. And schedule rest is all time. Warren Sharp had a stroke about their schedule rest. It was minus 24. It was like the highest, the worst they've ever measured for schedule rest. Yeah. I saw a lot of travel,

but this team doesn't have home games. So I think they're like, yeah, get us to the road. I don't think it matters as much. They're them and Deshaun Watson, just playing on the road all year. I landed at 10,

and that's a slight over. I just couldn't pick Harbaugh for nine wins. I really worried about the middle. their line though. Like you lose the center and their guards are both terrible and their tackles are elite. But everything in the middle is awful. And our team's just going to push through the middle at them. Where do you have? I have a middle 11.

And I know they're starting with this bullshit with the Bia Daz being out in the offensive line and they were like, they had the 27th best injury luck in the league. But Slater and all being back, it's all the difference when those guys are right. They're 11 games without those guys. It's fucking crazy. Exactly. It really is nuts. And I have to think, Mike McDaniel, I really, this could be the biggest overreaction in terms of an assistant coming over, a coordinator coming over. But. Well, that's how bad their offense was before. Yeah, right. I like it. I like them winning 11. And I have them winning.

I really want to do 11. I talked myself out of it because of the schedule rest and the center really threw me off. They're starting a rookie at center. Yeah, it's not great. Cole Strange is one of their starting guards. Right. It was so bad the Pats were, the Pats who didn't even. even have a good offensive line last year. It's like, we gotta get this guy out of here because we might be dumb enough to play him.

Just wave them. Losing Minter worries me as well. And they have a schedule. So they go Cardinals, Raiders, first two weeks. Two and O. There you go. And then they have the next seven are just all time. At Bills, at Seahawks, Broncos, at Chiefs, by week, at Rams, Texans, at Ravens.

It's a fucking gauntlet. And then you got to keep your quarterback, You know, upright. That Texans game, you think the Texans are going to be going up the middle and the Chargers? 54 sacks last year, third most for any quarterback. So I just think if they could just pretend, I mean, that's the case for everything. Hampton only played in nine games.

That could help them out a little bit, you know, to get a little bit of run game. I do think Herbert and May suffered from a little bit of the same problem as we got to January last year was like the accumulation of just getting fucking popped. You know? And the fact that the Chargers offensive line was worse than the pads. But at some point, when you're just going back, just assuming I only have 2.3 seconds to throw, I'm about to take a giant hit. At some point, as the stakes get higher and more stuff's going on and the teams get better,

and you're not healthy. Sometimes they were in the red zone a lot and couldn't score, and that's supposed to be where Mike McDaniel is going to turn it around. I don't like Campton as much as some others, but I do think having him the whole year will probably help. receivers I don't love they're fine Herbert's a very sexy MVP pick it's Ladd McConkey

Quentin Johnston and Trey Harris and already a couple of those guys are questionable all right so we're both over for them and then the last team is the Las Vegas Raiders over under five and a half wins five to one to make the playoffs

15 to 1 for the division they were 3 and 14 last year 8 to 1 if you want to go for them for worse record. They improve their offensive line, improve their run game, and they have Mendoza lurking. Plus they have Clint Kubiak. Why wouldn't we go over on this?

Oh, I was going to say this is my most embarrassing pick of all, picking them over. I won't do what I've done in prior years, take them to get a wild card or anything. But I do think they're going to go 7 and 10, I have for this team. And it doesn't have a lot to do with Mendoza. my dumb reasoning.

Like Kubiak, it was a few years ago, but Kubiak and Cousins, that was his most productive year. He had 31 touchdown passes that year. Now, I can only say this with so much confidence for a team that boasts a wide receiver room of Trey Tucker,

Jack Beck, and Malik Benson, which I think only next to the Dolphins is, that might be worse than the Dolphins. But little Max Crosby, karma in there, they spent $308 million in free agency,

that's the second most. You know, they got Tyler Lindenbaum. They got some Colton Miller. They have some good linemen in there. Yeah. I think they're going to be competitive. Yeah. You went over two.

I went under. Oh, you did. After all that. Yeah. I just had to have been five and 12. I couldn't get there. It's safe. You know.

Kubiak, sure. He's going to be way better than the ghost of Pete Carroll. Right. The franchise just seems like a mess. I don't know what's going on with them. Like the Pete Carroll hiring was weird. They spent money, but then they also brought in the worst receivers of all time to play with Mendoza. And then they brought in cousins as a Mendoza stopgap. But Mendoza's clearly going to play by week four and have nobody to throw to.

Gentie, the sixth pick last year was bizarre. I just think the roster is too weird for me. Can I give you my Tom Brady take here? I feel like people have to be reminded that he's part owner of this team. Right. It's so low on the list. And I think it's purposely, it's by design that no one remembers because he's involved in all this other crazy shit. Right. You know, he's doing roasts. He's doing subway commercials when he hasn't had a piece of bread in 16 years.

He's, you know, he's calling, he's going after whatever the fuck, Paul brother. everything's tight leather pant photo shoots. It's all to distract the fact that he owns the Raiders and that's what he's staying away from. So I guess I'm saying, good job by him. He's like the goat of distractions too.

The best defense I've heard of Brady's behavior yet. Yeah. Throw it all out there and the broadcasting, which is his thing. Well, that was the controversy of the first part of the season, right? The broadcasting and him being the owner and was he in on Pete Carroll and pretty quickly,

became apparent he was out on him. That was a big storyline. Does he ever step up and make this offense somehow respectable? Like him himself. Does he ever get that involved somehow? Does it seem like he cares that much? It's crazy. How old is he now?

45. Late 40s. You jump in there? Let me ask you a question about the over-under because they play the AFCs and the NFC West in this division. So what's their record in the... the division. One in five.

I think I gave him two wins. This is the math that makes the most sense for what you're advocating for. I've done this. One in five or oh and six? I totally agree with this. I know where you're going. I gave them two wins. They always have one score games against Denver and I think they pull.

One and five or oh and six. Okay. Let's go one in five. All right. You won't let me go two and four, but that's fine. Bill's Patriots, Rams, Seahawks. Let's go own four for those. Now I'm at one and nine.

Almost beat the Patriots line. Now do the Niners. and the Niners are sitting there as well. I just, if you go to them one and nine for those 10 games, I need to go five and two in the other seven games. And that's why I went under. Jets, Arizona, Miami. And by the way, every other bad team you're playing,

they're like, holy shit, we might win this week for playing the Raiders. Okay. I couldn't get there. I know. I wasn't proud of that. I didn't finish strong there, but I did have them with seven. Listen, I didn't make it a lock. I'm just, I didn't.

didn't really love it either way. How's your NFC, your AFC West thoughts? Yeah, I like Denver to win this division. And mainly it's because the odds are sitting there at two to one. And the way, I think that Denver and the chargers are like neck and neck. And my, uh, the reason I went in direction of Denver is because, um, I match up the units. I think that Denver's defense is the best unit of those two teams doing offense, defense, special teams. I like the Denver defense, the best out of all of them. The schedules are comparable, obviously, because they're in division and the chargers with the uncertainty that's coming into that offensive line.

It's annoying. I'd really like to see this charges all that. It's one time. I might have Hank put it in a bed a month ago and the Chargers for the division before the center injury. You might have. So it's Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs. I'm so far out on the Chiefs.

I'm doing Alt-Unders on the Chiefs. and then Raiders under five and a half because the math you just laid out. That's the way I'm playing this. This is one of my favorite exacts, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders. I think that's how it goes. I look forward to Zoe and Hank

and picture them on a yacht after the Texans win the Super Bowl. And you're like, oh, that's nice. Whose yacht is that? And he's like, it's mine. I took all your money out of the fan doll of the count. We're true. Idiot.

Dumbass. Thanks. AFC locks. So you had which locks. What did I have? I have... Because I had Houston over nine and a half, and I had Denver over nine and a half as my only two locks in the AFC.

So I did seven total. Right. I'm going chargers over. I'm going jets over. And that's it. All right. So you only had four locks total. Yeah, that's it.

Yeah. I had for the NFC, Dallas over, Washington under, Tampa over, Atlanta, under Seattle over. Right. And then you had... I can't remember what that. You had Green Bay? I had Green Bay over and did I have... Were you had some unders?

Well, a bunch of those NFC teams. It was so many hours ago. Yeah, it's fine. We're coming back. Probably a week from when this airs. Week from when this airs. We're going to do guest lines, but we're asking to do our NFL futures draft.

And that's going to be the Sunday heading into NFL season. And you guys on the ringer wise guys, you're going to finish the last two divisions. Yeah, we have two... NFC South and West, one day and Friday. Yes. Yeah. Very exciting.

Chimel changes picks right up to when you guys start the show, the rundown. There we go. We did it, Sal. Yeah, baby. Four hours, 32 teams. Only a couple arguments. One dead fish. One fish, two fish.

One illegal gambling story. We had a whole bunch of stuff. Thanks, House. My pleasure. Thanks for letting me sit in the Craig chair. Thanks, Sal. Great time. Thanks, Gahau.

Thanks, Eduardo. Thanks to everybody at the Ringer. And don't forget to come back on the BS pod and on RingerWise guys and then me and Sal a week from now. Good job by you, buddy. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Sal and House.

Thanks to Eduardo and Gahau. As always, don't forget, new rewatchables coming tomorrow afternoon. E.T. time. Can't wait for that because we did. A really good movie. Like a really, really good one. I'll see you on this feed, probably Tuesday.

Might just be Thursday this week, but I think it's going to be Tuesday, Thursday this week. So I'll see you at some point this week. Must be 21 plus in president in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in president in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Opting and required bonus issued as non-drawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration of max wage or amount. See terms at sportsbook.finder.com.

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