The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: August 28, 2024

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to run through the expected win totals of every AFC team and make their over/under picks. AFC East (2:09) AFC North (30:12) AFC South (51:30) AFC West (1:08:41) Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, we did a podcast five years ago called Break Stuff about the 25th anniversary of Woodstock 99. It was awesome. Eight episodes hosted by Steve Hyden. We turned it into a documentary eventually for the Music Box series on HBO. And now that podcast is available wide. Go search for it on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It is called Break Stuff. Check it out. It's great. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this. It's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside

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This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey and it's on Prime. All season long, watch Prime Monday Night Hockey deliver unreal

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Network, where you can find Against All Odds with Cousin Sal. Yeah. You can find the Bill Simmons channel on YouTube. Go search for it. And we are also brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, where, what is that thing they gave us on FanDuel's app? They gave us like a nice little... Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'll find it.

It's called, what do they call it? It's called Guess the Lines with Bill and Sal, but I think that's got to be a coincidence. You think it's, you. You think that's real? I'm not a conspiracy person. What tab is that under, though? It's right under the Futures Fusion betting odds. Futures Fusion.

Look for us. You'll see a bunch of the props and odds that we talk about on this AFC Part 1 podcast that's coming up. We're also going to be doing an NFC Part 2 later in the week. This is the annual Over-Unders podcast. FanDueluel giving all customers two profit boosts on NFL Futures

starting Friday 830 and going through next week. They let us add a bunch of custom parlay bets in the future fusion. Plus bettors can build fun player props combos using the parlay builder.

My favorite picks will be highlighted on FanDuel and on my social feed and you can boost those picks with the profit boost or boost your own. What is it? So we create these categories and then we bet on them and we lose and it'll be our fault.

And then other people get to join. Oh, that's great. Not in the losing and in the winning. Right, the winning. It's a collaborative. Yeah, we're going to hopefully win. Yeah, let's win this year. All right, let's do it.

AFC over-unders the annual pot coming up next. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right. We're taping this on a Tuesday afternoon in Los Angeles, California, home of two NFL teams, home of Guest Alliance since 2007, home of me and Cousin Sal. We're back, baby. I love it. I love it. I love it.

I gave Nephew Kyle the biggest hug you can even imagine. I think that counts as third base. Yeah, he does have a ton of intimacy in his family. I don't know. Did you handle that all right? He's got it now. I don't know. You're not a big hugging family, Kyle. I did what I had to do. We got through that hug. This is great for me. I was accused of being a half

hugger when I was in situ with my buddy Sully's wife. Really? I gave her a full hug and she's like, that was a good hug because you've always been a half hugger. Yeah. And I was like, that's kind of the deep down most insulting thing anyone's said to me. It's also very weird because it's like, what am I supposed to do?

Throw you in the bathroom? Like, what's going on? You want like a full body? Yeah. So I don't know. I'm not going to like full body hugger. Anyway, shout out to Robin Sullivan. We are here.

Yeah. It's exciting. Football. It's great for you too. You don't have to talk about these nonsensical NBA trades. They're never going to happen. Second freaking apron. You don't have to do the NBA whole thing anymore.

I told you. I'm now more in on the NFL than the NBA. I love it. It's great. I love it. Well, it's a super fun season because we have these rookie QBs. Yeah. We have embattled QBs.

We have a QB in Dallas who doesn't have a contract yet. We have some really bad QBs. It's all over the map. We're going to start with the AFC. What Sal and I do every year is we do the over-unders. Yeah. I feel like we didn't invent over-unders,

but I feel like we were the first content brand to really be like, we're going all in on picking over-unders and this is going to be an actual game. I'm going to say we invented over-unders. We invented them. Fine, I'll take credit. Let me just say this one thing.

Okay, last year, you were better than me, 17 and 15. I was 16 and 16. This guy, Chris Haynes, is a big fan of ours. Happy birthday. We are 25 and 12 over the last two years on teams we agree on, whether they're over-unders. Did we do locks last year? Because I have some locks.

I think we did, too. Yeah. 25 and 12. I was only 17 and 15 last year. It's have some locks. I think we did too. Yeah. 25 and 12. I was only 17 and 15 last year. It's disappointing. I had some bad ones. I might be overprepared, which is usually a bad sign for me, but we're going to go now.

We're going to start with the AFC East, a division that I have stared at over and over again. We have Jets and Dolphin fans in our life. The Dolphin fans are very testing, including John Jastrowski. I love it. I love the back and forth on our text. One thing has changed in this division since we started this two-month process. The Jets have become the favorite.

The New York football Jets, they're now the favorite. They are plus 160 to win the division. Their over-under is nine and a half wins in a 17-game season. A lot of juice on that. Minus 162. Minus 170 to make the playoffs. Plus 850 to be the one seed if you want to get frisky.

I hate that I like it. That's where I've landed. I hate that I like it. They have a ton of talent. I kept coming back to this number, Sal. 7 and 10 last year. Yeah.

Their quarterback last year couldn't win the backup quarterback job on a team with Jared Stenum and Bo Nix. He's the third-string quarterback, Zach Wilson, on that team. That's who their quarterback was last year. Other people played.

I can't even name some of the people they had. But it's just hard for me to believe with a much better offensive line that they spent money on with Brees Hall two years out of the ACL with Rodgers coming back. It's hard for me not to believe that they don't get to 10-11 wins. This is the tricky one, right? There's a bunch that are at 9.5, and you're like, oh, that's easy to go 10, or that's easy to go 9.

I think this is asking too much to go over 9.5 at minus 162. And I know this has now become personal with me and Aaron Rodgers. This is not me, my cousin. We're not giving big hugs like I did to nephew Kyle. You wouldn't do ayahuasca with him? Wouldn't do ayahuasca with him. Ayahuasca? Let's think about it, though.

When was he last good? Let's play the R show. I have all this data. He hasn't been good in three years. And then there's some other old QB stuff. Dan Marino, age 38. 12 TDs, 17 picks his final year. Favre, age 41, 11 TDs, 17 picks his final year. Favre, age 41, 11 TDs, 19 picks.

Right. Manning, 2015 when they won the Super Bowl. He was 39 years old, 9 TDs, 17 picks. But it does get a little better the last decade. Breeze, who I always felt we were betting against every week and who felt like he couldn't complete a 10-yard out. His stats were pretty good the last couple years. He only missed five games when he was 40.

He only missed four when he was 41. Made the playoffs one of those years. He's a guest on Cousin Sal's winning weekend this week, so I'm not going to say anything bad about him. And Phil Rivers, age 39, 24 TDs, 11 picks in that last year. So the recent precedent says it's not crazy that Rodgers will be okay. But in 2022, I think he threw like seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in his last five games

and then lost that game to Detroit. Yeah. Look, I think we're spoiled by Tom Brady and Mick Jagger, that these guys go on forever and they do what they do. And so Rodgers has to do the same thing. Throw Diane Lane in too. She was great. Yeah, throw Diane Lane in.

Yeah, for sure. But I just, I'm not seeing it with him I don't know and also like if you had to bet over under 13 and a half games he starts this guy who might go

on an ayahuasca retreat in Antarctica or host Jeopardy in Egypt I don't know what he's going to do his mind could be elsewhere plus the election coming out don't bet against him

that week for sure I don't know I'm just not I'm just not buying it. Somehow they have like one of the easier schedules, but six primetime games. So I don't know. The league did them a favor. Yeah, it's fairly easy the first few weeks,

and then it gets a little choppy for them. But especially with the San Francisco game in week one that we'll be doing on Guess the Lines on Sunday. That's a game in week 10 I wouldn't like it for them, but I like catching San Francisco in week one. Right. We don't know if IU is going to play. Trent Williams still holding out.

They just could be one of those games. The Jets are completely healthy at this point. They got the Patriots twice, right? They play Minnesota, and they play Denver week five and week four. So they could be like 4-1, five and L after first five in London. They got a hot seat coach, and they're also the Jets. So the case against them, the Rogers age thing, they're the Jets. All the baggage the Jets have, which I think if you really unpack it,

the Jets have had some good seasons. They've made AFC title games. They won playoff games in New England against Belichick. The talent is what I keep coming back to with them. they've made AFC title games they won playoff games in New England against Belichick the the talent is what I keep coming back to with them like I did the dumb talent rankings thing

I do every year they're a great fantasy team I had six of their 11 starters I have marked down as like pink chipper red chipper blue chipper

pink? Hall was pink's the color of a chip a good chip yeah I like to use different colors. All right. Brees Hall is the number one pick in every fantasy draft right now

because McCaffrey got hurt. Yeah. Wilson's the seventh best receiver, the eighth best receiver. Their offensive line I had as like... It's not one of the top five, but it's definitely in the six to ten range. So it's a great spot for Rodgers. And if you're really going to dig him,

you're just going to say Robert Sal. If they'd hired Mark Vrabel, they would have won the Super Bowl, and I get that logic, but if he's just worrying defense, that's it, and it's like, Rodgers, take the offense.

I know nothing about offense. I'm just going to coach this defense and be like fired up guy on the sidelines. They did go 7-10 with Zach Wilson. All right, but they beat the Commanders, the Jets, the Giants last year.

That game was pathetic. Nobody wanted them. The Patriots had hung it up. So some weird wins there. Look, they're not going to be terrible. I think they're 9-18, and that's why I just have them under. One of the things I like about the division bet is you can swing against it.

There's a couple teams like this this year. They could be 4-1, 5-0 after five weeks potentially, and then there's going to be good value on some of the other teams and maybe just zag the other way. But to me, I think there's one playoff team in this division. That's where I landed. And it was them versus Buffalo and Miami, and we'll talk about Buffalo in a second.

But I just think that they had less variables for me. When you have that much talent, what has to go wrong? Basically, you have to have Rodgers go out three plays into week one last year. Or you have to have Salah just be a complete disaster and cost them a couple games. Other than that, I couldn't really see. The turf.

The turf causes so many injuries for Jets players. I just couldn't see a ton of ways it could go wrong for them. I guess I oversimplified it and said Rodgers isn't as good as we remember him. But I think that's fair. He might not be. Right.

Yeah. So nine wins seem more likely than 10. I don't think they've taken the torch from Buffalo. I don't think there's more to dislike about Buffalo. Well, let's talk about Buffalo. Buffalo's over is 10 and a half, which has a lot of juice on it. Now the other way, it's plus 134.

So they want you to think Buffalo's going to live it at six. They're plus 195 to win the division, which at the start of August was plus 160. So nobody's betting that. They're plus 126 to miss the playoffs. They're right in that zone that we're going to cover a little later. There's always one or two teams from like plus 125 to plus like 160 that just don't make it and you just want to grab the right ones they're plus 270 for the wild card that i

thought was tasty and then if you want to get super crazy under seven and a half wins is plus 260 but oh come on last year they were 11 and six and all six losses were six points or less. Yeah. Last five years, they're 58 and 24. And Alan is either the second, third or fourth best quarterback in the world, depending on where you have them. I would probably have them second or third. This is the year we find out how good he is.

Cause the team, they have like 60 million bucks in wasted cap space. They had a bunch of dudes leave. Their safeties are gone. Their center's gone. Top two receivers are gone. They got 60 million in dead cap space. It's all telling us this team's going to suck.

And yet, I don't want to pick Josh Allen to be in single digits. Yeah. And I don't know why you would. I think every year we start this podcast looking for a way to not pick Buffalo. I don't know why we don't want to like it's like that's a little like tom cruise like why do people not want to like this guy josh allen's doing his own stuff i know right of course he solved the feud with you and jeff ross exactly carried a lot of movies back and taught us about scientology of course of course so he's tom cruise we have tom cruise playing quarterback for the best team

in the division he taught us about motion. Did you see that PSA he did with Christopher McQuarrie? Oh, right. Yeah, yeah. About motion on your TV, how you should turn it off so the movie's experienced. Tom Cruise does some good work. You wouldn't bet against that guy, right? I wouldn't. If there were box office numbers, you wouldn't bet they're under.

I'd bet against him in a height contest or a slam dunk contest. Yeah. That's a bet. All right. That's fine. But still going to do it with Buffalo. Look, they've won three consecutive AFC East titles. We want to pick against them.

And I feel like, unlike the others, they needed to win five games down the stretch in a row to make the playoffs. And we all knew they were going to do it.

We all knew they would do it. Because they have this extra gear. They get better when it gets colder. You can't say that for any other team. And they're not the Jets. So I love it. I think replacing Diggs and Davis is additions when it gets colder. You can't say that for any other team. And they're not the Jets. So,

I love it. I think replacing Diggs and Davis is additions by subtraction. Yeah, neither of us like Diggs. Yeah, Diggs will get to Houston later on,

but that could be a mess. I thought this team had a little bit of an odor to them. Good or bad? Bad. Oh. Milano,

when he went out until December. Right. Because that was like, Milano's going to be back. He's healthy. At least they have him. He's so good. He does so many things.

And then now he's out. Right. That pushed me over the edge with it. And I actually have them under 10 and a half because I think 11 is too... They could still win 10. They could still go 10 and 7. So I'm not even necessarily betting against that.

But 11 and 6 with the amount of new blood they have, new captains, all these rookies they're leaning on, all these receivers. Who's their number one receiver? Everyone's like, Shakir, watch out for him. It's like, I've watched Shakir the last couple years. We have no idea if that dude can handle that. He had better stats than Diggs last year. I get it.

It's going to be Keon Coleman, the FSU rookie, and Curtis Samuels. Rookie receiver. I just feel like It's going to be Keon Coleman, the FSU rookie and Curtis Samuels. Rookie receiver. Yeah. I just feel like he gets it done, Josh Allen. It doesn't really matter who's out there.

They get it. They have no room for error for him if there's a four-week Josh Allen injury. Their offensive line is 100% worse. And it's interesting.

I've been going on the team Reddits and 99% of the time it's useless. But then occasionally there'd be a thread where somebody's like, hey guys, what do you guys think? And people just lay out these compelling cases.

And essentially with the Buffalo fans, I think they all feel like this is potentially a throwaway year for them. Where it's like McDermott just gets fired if it doesn't work out. But on the other hand, they're all kind of like, you can't count us out either

because if this guy hits and this guy hits and we have Josh and new assistants and maybe the vibes are better. They're like one play away from making the Super Bowl, right? Like they won a game against the Steelers. That Chiefs game could have been anyone's. Like I don't think this is a rebuilding year at all. They end against New England, the Jets,

and then at New England again. They have your team two out of the last three. Well, can I give you their last two years of playoff games? Yeah. They barely beat Skyler Thompson. They got smoked by Cincinnati. Completely manhandled. They beat Pittsburgh

in round one. Yeah. Chiefs game was close. Choked at home. Choked at home against KC. Right. I just wonder, and I feel this, we're going to talk San Francisco

in part two, but sometimes you miss your window. And that would be my fear with them. Maybe they just got passed by the Jets. I think the Jets have just way more talent. If you line up their roster side by side,

Josh is the only reason to pick Buffalo. So. I think he starts six more games than Aaron Rodgers this year. This is a gutty team. Well, that's the thing.

See, that's why I hate this division because I'm now stuck with Big Shot Bob Sala and Rodgers who hasn't been good in three years.

And now I'm stuck with that as a pick. By the way, I don't believe that you're going on the team Reddit page. This is something your Slack guys

are saying. I do. I go on the team. Kyle, there's no way. No, I go on the team. I have a whole thing. I have an AFC Reddit with all the bookmarks. Really? Well, just because I want to make sure I'm not missing anything. But not with every team.

That might be more pathetic than what I do here. Filling out every single win, every single game for every team. My family won't even talk to me anymore because I know all this nonsense. Look, I'm going to show you. My bookmarks. NFL 2024.

There's my AFC Reddit and my NFC Reddit. And my NFL Reddit. I have under for the Bills. And you have over. I'm slightly over.

So you're going 11 wins for them? Yeah, 11 and 6. So this is not good. So, so far we disagree on the two. Yeah, but that's, we knew we would hate this division. We're going to agree on this next team. The this is not good. So, so far, we disagree on the two. Yeah, but we knew we would hate this division. We're going to agree on this next team. The Miami Dolphins.

I don't know. Over is 9.5. Yeah. Juice on that, minus 134. Their division is plus 210. Plus 950 would be the number one seed. If you want to go 11-plus wins for them, that's plus 160. If you want to go the other way, do under 8.5.

That's plus 166. I wrote for every team, I wrote better, worse. Better was unclear for me with the Dolphins. I couldn't really think of a way they got better unless you're saying Vic Fangio is the defensive coordinator. It was so bad that now they're better off and there's new blood. Worse, they lost Wilkins. Their entire

middle of their defensive line, he's gone. Tua lost a bunch of weight. That makes me nervous. Last year, it was like, Tua's got to get bigger. He's got to withstand. Now, it's like he's back to skinny Tua. Boy, I'm glad I didn't lose that weight I talked about since you were talking about me. Oh, my bad. He gave the weight to you. Phillips and Chubb,

both coming off major injuries. Phillips is playing. Chubb is out first four weeks. Last year, they were one and six against 2023 playoff teams. And their two best receivers got paid. I just don't like a lot when you throw in the schedule. I'm a pretty easy under for the Dolphins. I think sometimes it's hard for us to separate the playoff version

of its team and the regular season. And this is, the Dolphins are the AFC Cowboys, right? You know what you're going to get in January. They were 11-6. They have an owner who thinks he's also the GM? Yes, he's the GM. They have a coach. They're only paying three guys? I guess that

part's true. Their head coach is auditioning for John Travolta's drug dealer in Pulp Fiction 2 or something. What does he look like? Mike McDaniel, the way he dresses. I thought he looked like Brock Landers when we hit the 80s and he's filming the documentary for Amber Waves and he's just wearing the sunglasses and looks like he's just blown a big bowl of something. That's probably better.

Was that on Dolphins Reddit? I didn't see that on Dolphins Reddit, actually. I like that. No, listen. Here's why they're a good team. They have this cheat code in Tyreek Hill who's good for seven free points a game or a 40-yard bomb a game.

That's a free play. Maybe two or three of those a game. A kid a game. What? And a kid, Maybe two or three of those a game. A kid a game. What? And a kid, yes. And definitely a kid by halftime. A lot of kids. But I don't think, like, most are not going to have 20 touchdowns, and I get it.

That stuff is going to catch up to them. But they're a bad January team. They're not good in cold weather. But I do have, they're one of these nine-and-a-halves that I think could get to 10. You really have to make a decision on it. So. I'm not against it. If they get to 10,

they're making the playoffs and there were just other teams. I like better. I still, you know, it's funny. Football is weird. We're, we're in,

we're in the middle of it talking about it every day from September through January. Right. Yeah. And then seven months passed and you just kind of forget shit. And I think Miami is one of those teams where like the last time we saw them, they were rolling over and dying against Kansas City. They wanted no part of the cold weather.

JJ, who we watched a game with, our friend who's a Dolphins fan, I called the JJ couch the dead JJ couch that he just was basically sunk into as the game went on. There's like basically a chalk outline. The outline's still there. Yeah. It was so bad. And now their team is worse.

So why am I supposed to get excited about them? Also, the league's had like another, it's almost like what happened in the Eagles last year. The league's had another year now to kind of figure out some of the shit they're doing. Yeah. I just think the variance for them is shades the wrong way. But this is why I hate this division.

If you told Miami it was going to win the division, I wouldn't be shocked. We just know who's going to be in fourth place. We know who's going to be in fourth place. Points win games, right?

So they led in total offense 40-plus points a game. They led in yards per play last year. I still think that offense is there. I have them as a second-half swimming team because their schedule, they go home Jacksonville,

home Buffalo on a Thursday night too, which is a nice advantage for them. At Seattle, home Tennessee, at Pat's, and then a bye week. But then,

right around week nine, where we go at Buffalo, at Rams, but then the last six games, at Green Bay on a Thursday, home Jets, at Houston, San Francisco, at Cleveland, at the Jets. It's a gauntlet.

And we see these teams, there's two every year that just die when they get to like week 10, week 11. They're kind of a candidate anyway just because of the type of team they have, and it's like a warm weather team. This might be one of your, like you talked about, teams that get off to a hot start, and then you can bet them to not make the playoffs, if you like that. Right. You zag the other way

on them. Yeah. I'm going under. They feel 9-8 to me, and it could actually go worse if something happens to Tua. We're just penciling in Tua now for 17 starts a year. I don't know. Something's off with that team. I got them at 10. So if you're at 9-10.

So we disagree three and around. And I think we're going to disagree here too. The case for them is like the Jets. They're loaded. Like they have Phillips, Baker, Howard, Fuller, Ramsey, Holland all on defense. Those guys are all good. They got two good receivers. They have speed in the two apiece.

So maybe they get out so strong September, October, then they can kind of hold on those last six weeks. I don't feel great about going under with them, but I'm going to do it. I feel awesome about this next team. The New England Patriots, my beloved Pats. The worst team I think we've had since I was a senior in college. The offensive line is so bad,

and all the Pats fans have been talking about it. And then finally, they're on the last game of the year, Sunday night. Collinsworth and Tirico. Drake May has a couple really nice throws. Collinsworth, oh, Mike, oh my God, Mike.

This kid, what he's seeing, how did he do that? You gotta love the Drake. You gotta love it. This kid, he's 21 years old, Mike. And then five minutes later,

he's running for his life on every single play because we have no left tackle. We have no right tackle. And we have no center that can snap a ball. Now, it was the backup center in there, but it is an absolute travesty. They have $50 million in cap space, though,

which I guess you can roll it over like it's a skin in golf. Yeah. But the QB-coach combo is in the bottom three in the league. Like, I would, in my ranking system, I'll do a minus two if the QB or the coach is that bad. I did minus four

for that combo. You don't like that he called out where he basically announced the starter where he didn't have to. Yeah, he's talking about

how May is playing better than Brissette, but we'll see what happens. It's like, okay, cool. So if you don't play May, that means you're telling us

your offensive line is so terrifying that you don't want to put your 20 wing, your old QB in front of it, but now you're just throwing this other guy out of the way. Like, you can't talk about stuff like that. I have something for you. I have a little gift. No, don't get nervous. It's actually a nice

gift. It's somewhere between stupid and nice, and it's going to live in nephew Kyle's garage, I'm guessing, like 10 minutes after this. But this is a pylon signed by Drake May. Really? Yep.

Isn't that nice? Why are you laughing, Kyle? It's a delightful gift. This is great. And then anytime he dives for the pylon and loses the ball, you'll think of me, right? Or get sacked by the pylon. The Drake May pylon. Yeah.

How did you get such a great thing? I know so many people. You're like Red and Shawshank. Unbelievable. Thanks, Sal. No, of course. I love Drake May pylon. Yeah. How did you get such a great thing? I know so many people. You're like red and Shawshank. Unbelievable. Thanks, Sal. No, of course. I love Drake May. And the only thing that matters this season is that Drake May doesn't get hurt.

That he doesn't get put in a situation like what Carolina did to Bryce Young last year where they just threw him the wolves and he got the shit kicked out of him and ran for his life and had no skill position, guys. The Pats have bottom three receivers in the league. Brissette's probably the worst quarterback in the league or in the top three. The offensive line has to be the worst. They're terrible.

I'm looking at some of these bets. First of all, here's a sign for you. Their over is four and a half right now with some juice on the over, which I don't understand. The under for me is my first lock. Worst record, which a don't understand. The under for me is my first lock. Worst record, which a month ago was plus 550,

is now plus 260 on Fandle. Yeah, because of you. You're screaming about how bad they're going to be. It's not my fault. They can't block. When did you really turn up? I feel like you were maybe going over until the Judon trade. Barmore getting hurt.

There was a case for them to have a top five defense, and Barmore went out with blood clots, and he's the best guy in the defense. And once they did that, I think they decided to trade Judon. Yeah. They needed both of those guys to have some push and some better stuff. Okay. But listen, this was not going to be a 10-win team,

so you understand that's probably a smart trade to get rid of Judon, who's 32 years old. Once Barmore went out, it was a great trade. He was not going to resign. I'm not against trading Judon. Yeah. The offense is going to resign. I'm not against Jaden Judon. You got third round. Yeah. The offense is going to be,

I mean, I don't know what the record is for least amount of points. There were some crazy Jets numbers last year where, I can't believe this. We're going to be talking Celtics

week three because you're already out. I have all these. This is why we gamble. I'm going to have, this is how I learned to gamble in college because the Patriots are terrible.

Let me make a case for that. Can I do one more? Sure, go ahead. Under three and a half wins is plus 240. And I think that might be my favorite bet of any future. I looked at their schedule and I honestly cannot come up with four wins. I went through it a million times.

There's a lot of winnable games. If the Jaguars are good, and we'll talk about them in a second, they don't even have— Seattle, Giants, Chicago, Titans. I think Seattle's going to be good. Cardinals, Colts. These are not—

Titans. These are anywhere from six to eight wins, maybe four. Who knows? They go to London to play Jacksonville. There's always a surprise in the division. You know they're going to beat the Jets somehow. I don't think there's a lot of room if you take the under. I think like—

Oh, there's going to be room when I take the under three and a half. I'm still going to have room. Those winnable games. I haven't met five and 12. I could be wrong, but I think they play with a little pride. I'm going under Locke. Wow. The only other person who seems to see what I'm seeing is Lombardi.

And there's this whole Belichick thing to it too, where Belichick... He's a Belichick guy. He's the worst drafter and free agent dude of this decade probably in the NFL. Nobody missed on more picks and did more dumb signings. I fully can see that. But their defense was, for losing Gonzalez and Judon early in the year and not having an offense, their defense kept them in every single game. And now they have Mayo, who's never coached before. Pretty inexperienced coaching staff.

Alex Van Pelt, who's the offensive coordinator, Cleveland fired last year. Right. You know, they're going to have a bottom five or six coaching staff. They're going to be tough to stay in the top 10 defensively. They're going to have no home field advantage either, Sal. People aren't going to go to these games. Oh, he called me Sal.

I know he's serious now. Shit. Sal? What did I ask? Well, just to call me out by name. I'm just like, that's how serious this is. I used your first name. I understand it does seem like

Barmore and then Judon getting traded, and they used eight of their nine draft picks on offensive players, which is not Patriots' way at all. So it seems like they're going the wrong way. Well, and the other thing, they really, they needed a left tackle. They had, I think, like the third pick in the third round,

and they should have traded up and taken the guy that the Chiefs ended up taking, who went like second to last pick in the second round, who everybody's like, this guy's awesome. He's going to be our left tackle for 10 years. It's like, of course, the Chiefs have outwitted somebody again. They kind of did it to the Bills too.

Yeah. If this is where the guy works out. Right. They traded that. Yeah. Right. So, I think this would be rough. You can get them at 100 to 1

for the AFC or 300 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Do you just do the 300 and then hedge once they make the Super Bowl? Or do you do the 100? Why are you doing this to me? Because I have like one year where I'm able to do it.

One year? We've been bad this whole decade. I'm picking you over. I think you get to five. Wow, so we disagree on every single AFC East team. Jesus. Look, I'm going to be wrong about at least half the time. And you have no locks in this division? No, no locks.

I really do have it within a half a game for all of them. All right. I have under Pat's four and a half lock. We'll take a break. We'll get to the AFC North. Hey, football fans, the wait is over on FanDuel. The NFL, it's back. You can start the season with the big return on America's number one sports book, my favorite, FanDuel. You'll get started with $200 in bonus bets, guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest

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Three and a half wins go under. Grab the plus 240 or whatever it is right now and enjoy yourself. Visit fanduel.com slash BS and you can be like me and bet against your own favorite team. That's fanduel.com slash BS. Never waste a hunch.

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Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers,

host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right. We got so into that Pat segment, I forgot to set you up. You're going to do a prop for every division. Yeah. I like this player prop. Tyreek Hill. You heard of him? 13 plus conceived. No. Receiving touchdowns plus 360.

I don't understand this number. Two of the last four years, he's hit this. 13 and 15 touchdowns. Has 119 catches each of the last two years. So 13 TDs plus 360. Yeah. Why not? I mean, if he plays 17 games, he's probably getting that.

Well, that's the whole thing. Yeah. All right. AFC North. This is one that I basically went to the buffet and tried a bunch of different things. So I'm like, oh, the teriyaki beef. I'll put that on my plate. Oh, there's some chicken.

And then at the end, you just go back. You just throw up. No, then you just go back. You're like, you know what I should have gotten is just the prime rib. I should have just gotten that. That's Baltimore. You go and you bounce around. You look for all these reasons not to take them.

And there are some reasons. They lost Patrick Queen. Their offensive line is definitely unequivocally worse. Mike McDonald, who did a great job as their defensive coordinator, is now coaching Seattle. They led the league in turnover differential, which usually shifts back to the middle the next year. They beefed up at cornerback.

Everybody likes the first runner they took. They added Derrick Henry, who's going to be really fun to watch on this team. they beefed up at cornerback everybody likes the first rounder they took they added Derek Henry who's going to be really fun to watch on this team but Sal

their over-under is 10.5 I am going over I'm also taking them for the division at plus 145 wow and it comes down to this

Lamar is 58-19 as a starter yeah like just don't overthink it sometimes when he's healthy they win three out of every four games Lamar is 58-19 as a starter. Yeah. Like, just don't overthink it sometimes. When he's healthy, they win three out of every four games.

Yeah. Sounds good. This division's very good, though. It's very tough. You know, you're not going to run the table on it. You can't go 6-0. It's just too hard-hitting, too physical. I'm with you. If you go under, you're asking for a three-game regression

because they won 13 games last year. But something about replacing the defensive coordinator and your best defensive player, it just doesn't sit right with me. I just don't think... You're zagging. Yeah, I'm zagging. Five in a row. This is crazy. I read that stat. If you agree with the both

of us, then we go crazy. Again, I think they win 10 games. I just can't get them to 11. He's a great regular season quarterback. Fourth toughest schedule in football at KC, Vegas, at Dallas, Buffalo, Cincy to start. So if you want to jump on that to win a division,

you might get better odds by week five if they're three and two or after week five. So I think they lost a lot. You know, Roquan Smith and Lamar Deals bankrupted the team. They lost 15 players in free agency. You went over most of them. I think it's a very competitive division. It almost doesn't matter who the quarterbacks are for the other teams.

I guess the question for me is they went 13-4 last year. Yeah. And I just need them to go 11-6 this year to hit the over, which I think would also be good enough to win the division. So is this team three wins worse? Right. And I just don't see it. Yeah. I could would also be good enough to win the division. So is this team three wins worse? Right. And I just don't see it. Yeah.

I could see two wins worse, but three seems ambitious. Last year in the playoffs, they beat Houston and they had that 17 to 10 loss against KC. They were home, right?

They were home. They scored 10 points at home. They sucked. Right. And it made me so mad, but I don't, I mean, it was.

I think I bet them over 10.5 points. I had a really good playoffs. That was the most upsetting. I just hated it. Yet it felt like there were two, three plays where they could have actually stolen that game somehow. KC didn't do anything the last two hours of the game.

I think you're right. We carry the biases we remember from January. You didn't because you're still going over. But with Miami and Baltimore, and I know you're going to pound Dallas, even though Dak is a good regular season quarterback. We remember what happens in January, but we're doing over-unders. So that's just the September through December. Top five coaching staff.

And if the things that I'm supposed to be worried about are they lost Patrick Queen and their O-line's worse, we've seen teams patch together the O-line. The part that, as I kept thinking about it, you dare Kenry, but then you don't have that good of an O-line. And I was like, so what if he's just getting hit behind the line and you spend $52 on your fantasy league on him? It's like 15 carries for 31 yards. And you're like, oh my god, they can't block. I just feel like that coaching staff will figure it out. They've done it.

They do it year after year. But not the Patriots. You can't patch together an offensive line. I have them at 10. You have them at 11. So they're by weeks, week 14. They're at the Giants week 15. Home Pittsburgh. Home Houston on that Wednesday Christmas game four days later.

And then home for Cleveland. And I think that Wednesday game, the home team must have the advantage. Christmas with no days rest, basically. Yeah, you would think. So I feel like if they can get to can they be 7 and 6 heading into that 4 and then sweep it if they're 8 and 5

they'll go 3 and 1 from a talent standpoint talent everywhere the Zay Flowers you'd feel like he he's not a top 10 receiver but he's at least finally a number 1

for Lamar yeah I hate his guts too because of that January game same kind of thing but yeah he'll do well in the regular season.

All right. We're going for six in a row now. The Cincinnati Bengals over 10 and a half. Minus 120 the action on that. Division plus 165. Playoffs minus 230.

You can take it for number one seed at 7-1. I really tried to talk myself into this one. Which way? Pro. Okay. They played 11 playoff teams last year.

Got better at safety. If you're going to ding them, ding them on bad running backs, probably bottom five, with your team being 32nd in the league with running backs. So bad that there's been some Dalvin Cook

that never looked better. That'd be nice. He's Dallas. Look at him. He used to be good. Sketchy cornerbacks and they lost DJ Reader who was a stud for them. It comes down to this for me. I'm going under because I am more scared of Joe Burrow's wrist

than any other NFL body part including anything on Tyreek Hill. I just can't get over the wrist thing. He doesn't seem 100% to me. I feel like they've been dancing around it. Our Ringer Fantasy guys, they feel like that's like a do not draft list, the entire team.

Because if something's really wrong with Burrow, that's also going to affect Chase. It's too frightening to me. I can't do it. I'm going slight under. Ten and a half. It feels like a nine and eight or a ten and seven. Well, I defer to you because you're an expert in wrist mobility.

I mean, we've said that for years. Yeah, I do. I do know a lot about the wrist. I'm with you. So we finally have. Wow, we did it. Yeah, I think like I love Burrow. When we finally have. Wow, we did it. Yeah, I think like, I love Burrow. When he's at his best, he is top two.

You talked about top two or top three. I love watching him in January, but he's got to be seen as a legitimate risk at this point. He has three major-ish injuries in his career, you know? So I don't know, but it is weird that you look at it, and I'm going to conflict too. It's kind of like this Jets situation. They were 9-8 last year.

Why can't they get to 11 with Burrow? But their backup played pretty well with them. Yeah, but their backup played pretty well with them. Yeah. Brandon was okay. But, yeah, I'm with you. I'm not buying the Burrow buzz cut. Reeder is a big run stopper.

So their offensive line is still in the bottom 10. Every other year they protect them. Lou An don't, their offensive line is still in the bottom 10. Every other year they protect them. Lou Adarumo, we were screaming his praises and that defense just fell apart. It was top five

passing yards allowed. 11 and six, they always get off to a slow start. They lose their first two or two out of three for no reason, right? So could easily lose

three in a division. They have KC, Dallas. I think they screw up somewhere else along the way. I'm going under. Yeah, they start out with the Pats, so we know that they're going 1-0. But then at KC, week two.

Home, Washington, Monday night. At Carolina, week four. And if they're not 3-1 coming out of that, potentially 4-0, but at least 3-1. If they're like 2-2 coming out of that, it gets worse and worse and worse. They have an at Baltimore, at the Chargers combo in the middle

of the season. They're playing at Dallas. They play at Pittsburgh and Cleveland, all the NFC. The case for them, they have some easy... They have New England, Carolina, Denver, the Giants, Tennessee, Washington, and Las Vegas. It's a last-place schedule, right? Yeah.

That's what gave me pause. But it just feels like if the over-under was 9.5, I feel like I might go over on it. But the 10.5, the 11.6 just seems ambitious. It's so high. I also like the wild card for them at plus 190. I just thought those odds would be lower. If the Ravens win the division, you're saying? Yeah.

You're basically betting on the Bengals to be a playoff team. There's a catastrophic one where it's the under of seven half wins is plus 440. Interesting. So that would be the something's really wrong with Joe Burrow bet. Right. I can't get there. So I don't have two quarterbacks. 11's a big number for an injured quarterback.

So I went under on Burrow and I went under on Josh Allen, two of my favorite quarterbacks in the league, but I just don't like the situations. All right, well, we finally agreed on one. Also, not a lot of talent on this team anymore. That's the other thing. Like, I only had five chippers on the team. Burrow, Chase, T. Higgins, barely.

Hendrickson and Stone. And then Taylor's, I think, in that, like, what, 9-13 coaching range. It's a good coach. Right in there. They need the kid from Georgia at 18 Mims to pan out on offensive line because, like I said, you know how that goes

with them. Would you see about how big their offensive line is? It's the heaviest offensive line in the league. I don't really know what that means. Yeah, they have the heaviest and I think Philly's second. Wow. Where it's like almost 1,700 pounds of people on their offensive line. I kind of like that. All right, so we agreed on one. Next one is Cleveland.

I think we're going to agree on this, too. No, I don't think we are. Go ahead. You don't think we are? Well. Over 8.5. A lot of juice on the over minus 138. They are plus 450 for the division.

They are plus 138 to make the playoffs. If you're banking on Deshaun just absolutely murdering them this year, the under for 6.5 wins is plus 300. The under for 7.5 wins on Fandle is plus 184.

They were 11-6 last year. And then the playoffs started. And Houston absolutely beat the living shit out of them. They lost 45 to 14. Their defense was awesome at home and shaky on the road and it feels like they're worse.

Denzel Ward has another concussion. He said five. So you got that. Their offensive line is 100%, no question worse and their left tackle might not be ready for the first week. They tried to trade Amari Cooper. That floated out there.

I never like when that happens. They were six and two in one score games in 2023. Usually reverts a little. Here's the biggest thing for me is no first round picks in 2022, 23, or 24. When you miss a three-year cycle of just not adding anybody awesome, I think there's damage. And my take on this going under is this is the year that a strong trade officially morphs into shape as the worst NFL trade of all time. Wow. Well, this is it.

I think he's unsalvageable. This is the big test, but I will say this. Do you know what his record was last year? He did play a bunch of games. Yeah. It was 5-1 last year. Deshaun Watson was 5-1. Okay. And I don't know which way you want to go with this,

but this team won without Nick Chubb, and they won with four or five quarterbacks. I think they started their fifth quarterback in Week 18. So pretty damn good. And I think it's because of that defense, which you're right, showed up at home and not on the road. for the first two months that was a top 10 defense of the century leading podcast phenomenal right miles garrett defensive player of the year last year you know they re-signed to darius smith at five and a half sacks he's practicing again um i think it's a top three

defense you know they brought in devin bush and jordan hicks so you're in it's a top three defense. They brought in Devin Bush and Jordan Hicks. So you're in. Not only am I in, this is my division winner. Whoa! I know Joe House is with me only because of the number. Joe House is with you? Yes. What else do I need? I don't need anything else.

Oh, man. I'm sorry. Plus 450 is way too high. These teams all beat up on each other. They were great last year. Why couldn't they do it? The Watson thing just seems like it's never been worse. That surprised you when I said he was 5-1

last year, but he was. And Joku's a great tight end. Their receivers, they have Cooper, Elijah, Moore, Judy. This guy thrashed from Louisville. He's been good in the preseason, the rookie. I really like it. Really good offensive line. I'm just worried about that first week,

which is one of their most important games because they're playing your team. My team. And Michael Parsons, and that's the week where their offensive line might be a little dingy. But yeah, I had them as a top five offensive line if they can actually get healthy.

And we'll see. Conklin's coming back. There you line if they can actually get healthy. And we'll see. Conklin's coming back. There you go. I can't get there. I think the Watson thing single-handedly ruins it for me. I just don't. What about Jameis? I look for comeback player of the year.

They're carrying four quarterbacks. But we know Jameis isn't a starter. Like, how many years in a row can he get a chance? Did you know Flacco wasn't a starter? Any guy they put in there last year to win? If Jameis is playing, count me in on betting against the Browns. I love this team. You love this team. I don't know why. I really

do. I mean, I think it's crazy to have them at eight and a half after what they did last year. It's because of Deshaun. They're starters back. You've read some of the stories, right? He's defiant. I haven't read anything. Don't ruin it for me. I haven't read anything about him. I don't know anything about the guy. I think the vibes are all wrong.

Okay. And last year was in everything somehow went right last year, even though nothing was going right. And that never works twice. I have for this year's Browns in the division, not the Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers over eight and a half plus one 16. So you actually get a little plus action on the Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Over 8.5, plus 116, so you actually get a little plus action on the over.

Playoffs plus 194. I think their defense is going to be the best defense in either conference. And I try to talk myself out of it because their schedule is just horrifying. That's it. This gauntlet they have from week 11 on, home Baltimore, at Cleveland, at Cincy

home Cleveland, at Philly, at Baltimore home KC, at Cincy and the Baltimore KC are a Saturday Wednesday combo so the reasons to pick them are that and Russell Wilson Russell Wilson is still way better than Kenny Pickett last year look, he went

what did he go, 8-9 in Denver I guess he didn't play the last couple games for them but they were you know they weren't a disaster

Pickett was a disaster for Pittsburgh I don't like Russell Wilson but the one thing he could do is take a whatever step drop and wing it downfield

and wing it downfield to receivers running fast and he doesn't make turnovers all they need is no turnovers can you just throw it deep this is going to be a team that just wants to win 16-13, 19-16, 17-10. That's who they are. They're the Browns from last year. I have them as over and I have them as a playoff team. Wow. I have them over. I think I have them right at nine. I don't

have them as a playoff team, but I like all your reasoning. I think if these guys stay healthy, like right with Queen and Watt and Hayward and Highsmith could be top five that we've seen. I don't have them as a playoff team, but I like all your reasoning. I think if these guys stay healthy, like, right, with Queen and Watt and Hayward and Highsmith, could be top five that we've seen in a long time. Joey Porter Jr. coming along. They got Dante Jackson from the Panthers for cornerback. Cam Sutton suspended for the first eight games. Yeah, I didn't love that.

But I wish the quarterback were a little better, and I wish that schedule allowed them for two weeks where they can come up for air well one thing is it really seems like they have a good offensive line this year which is different

than previous years but they spent number 20 and number 51 picks on all lines yeah and they seem pretty happy with it

this was another thing that jumped out to me first of all they made the playoffs last year they were 10 and 7 so the over under is they're two less for whatever reason.

They've spent $165 million in cap on their defense, which is $25 million more than any other team in the league. To say they've loaded up is the all-time understatement. On top of the fact that their defense was hurt last year. Watt missed a bunch of games.

Fitzpatrick missed a bunch of games. Cam Hayward was banged up. So if they can get all those dudes together, I just think it's going to be this year's Browns defense. Definitely. Six AFC North games in the final eight. So I have second best division? In your mind?

In the whole thing? Out of either conference. In the NFC North thing? I have one division I like more. You like the NFC North better? I don't want to spoil it. There's one I like more. It's not the A North better. I don't want to spoil it. There's one I like more. It's not the AFC South.

I'm trying to raise suspense. All right. This is the second best division, though. I like, that start is interesting, because I think they've got to go 2-1 or 3-0, right? So at Atlanta, that's the Arthur Smith game, right? Yep. At Denver, obviously the Russell Wilson game,

and then the Chargers, which, well, they're home for it anyway. It would have been home even if it were on the road. So definitely a start that they have to capitalize on. Yeah, I don't even know what the odds are. I'll have to look this up during the break, but the odds for Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincy, Cleveland as the exact order, that's got to be like 20 to 1, right? Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincy.

Pittsburgh is the second one. This is so hard to pick the four. This is the hardest one. We have a couple exact orders we really like. I love, see, I think this helps if you know the first place team and you know the fourth place team and then move from there. So that's

16 to 1. Is it? Yeah. I kind of like that. Give us your prop for this division. What is it? Ravens to score a touchdown in every game is minus 115. In December 2022, the Browns held them scoreless. Oh, they scored three. They didn't score a touchdown. It's happened once in 93 games.

You're getting even odds for something that's happened once in 93 games. I really like it. You know, obviously a lot of talent. You could have bad luck in a rainy December game maybe, but the Ravens score. They get in the end zone. I like it. Obviously, a lot of talent. You could have bad luck in a rainy December game maybe, but the Ravens score. They get in the end zone. I like it. Thank you. I'm trying to think of how that would go wrong.

The offensive line's not great. Maybe there's a game where they just can't get it done inside the 20. Yeah, they might have a couple games where they score 10, but I think they're less reliant on Tucker, believe it or not. The other case against Baltimore that I considered is just that Lamar has had seasons where he'll just miss some games.

And he was healthy last year, but it was in the back of my head. But my two big predictions for this division are the Burrow thing, I don't like the odor of that. And I think this Watson thing's just done. I think he's going to be like the most unpopular player in his city in the AFC by like November. Because I think the team's pretty good. I just don't think he's good. I don't think he has it.

I don't know if he knows how to lead a team anymore. But I don't know if that's the end of their season, if he's not good. The Flacco saved their season last year. If they catch it early enough, they'll get maybe a Bailey Zappi to come in there and save the day. Bailey Zappi. So you have Cleveland as the awesome defense team and I have Pittsburgh.

Alright, we'll see what happens. Oh, you did your prop, so let's take a break. We've got a new segment brought to you by our friends at Yahoo Fantasy Football and it's all about winning. Why do we play fantasy football, Sal? I don't know. To hate ourselves?

No, it's to win. There are no good running backs. With Yahoo Fantasy Football, win in your league, and someone will win $1 million. All you have to do is play in a private Yahoo Fantasy League. Enter the sweepstakes by September 5th. Enter now at yahoosports.com slash Simmons. I love Yahoo Fantasy Football

and especially the new app because easy to use, easy to set up, lets you focus on the game and the fact that there are no good running backs. Yahoo Fantasy Football bringing us this segment to help you win your league. So to kick off our Yahoo Play to Win segment, let's talk drafting. Any last observations before

you're about to be in 19 leagues? Well, you don't get kicked out of this Yahoo League, right? No. I like the leagues where you get kicked out. They don't have the kick out. All right, all right. See, I would do it for 500 grand, but someone gets kicked out.

I don't know, man. So you're out on all running backs. Except Rico Dattel, yeah. All running backs except the Cowboys. Watch out. So are there any running backs you like? Brees Hall, that's about it? Not too many, no. Less? Bucky Irving for the Cowboys. Watch out. So are there any running backs you like? Brees Hall? That's about it.

Not too many. No. Less? Bucky Irving. So spend money on receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends? That's it. All right. That's a good tip. Put those tips to use and create or join a Yahoo Fantasy Football League today.

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I'm sorry, by the way, I didn't have a gift for you for that division. I should have brought a gift for you for everything. Yeah, that would have been nice. I'm sorry. Go ahead. Houston. I would have liked that. I don't know what your gift would have been for this division, but everyone's on

Houston. We skip it because we never get it right. You think it's this division we don't get right? We're getting it right this year. I feel really good about this division. Houston, over 9.5 wins. There's juice on that. Division is plus 105. Conference

plus 800. Number Division is plus 105. Conference, plus 800. Number one seed, plus 800. 12 plus wins is plus 225. And if you want to go nuts and vote them, best record, 14 and one. They made round two of the playoffs last year. We're 10 and seven.

They loaded up. Pass rush is better. D-backs are better. They added Joe Mixon. They're going to be healthier. Their offensive line's healthier. Year two, C.J. Stroud. They had the number one offense in DVOA.

If you're going to go worse, Autry suspended for six games. They had good turnover luck last year. Won't be the same. They have a weird schedule where the first six games are easy. Weeks 12 through 15 are easy. And then the rest of the schedule is hard. I'm going to go here, Sal. I'm going over.

If CJ Stratton is special, which I think he is, I think he's just in the 10-11 wins club from now on that these other guys are in. If he's going to be healthy and you're giving him a good team, he should win 11 games from now on going forward. I'm back in the Houston Texans, not only to win this division,

not only to win the conference, but to make the Super Bowl. Wow. The Houston Texans. The Super Bowl? The Super Bowl. There's one Super Bowl they should have. The Houston Texans in the Super Bowl. I feel like a jackass for taking them under now, but I also kind of love it.

Yeah. You love this act on me? I do. I think Stephon Diggs ruins C.J. Stroud. He's the third receiver. He's fine. Yeah, I know, but he's going to be eyeballing them when he doesn't get like six targets in a row.

He's just running 12, 13 over the middle. He's fine. No, they didn't sign him to be a third receiver. C.J. Stroud is cool. I know. He's one of the coolest CJ Stroud is cool. I know. He's one of the coolest initial names of all time. All right.

I don't want to get into it. His podcast stuff has been great. I loved watching him last year. I interviewed him on Radio Row. He's tremendous. Could play in the NBA. I'm in on CJ Stroud now. I like it.

It took me a while. I didn't trust the Ohio State thing and the fact that his name was CJ. Yeah, you didn't like that. I didn't like it. First place schedule now. It's just a different ball game. Everyone's gunning for you. By the way, if you look at their games last year,

Stroud was impressive. The rest of the team kind of wasn't. It's hard to explain, but just go through all of them. Not too many impressive games. Well, they had one receiver. Dell got hurt halfway through the year. Somebody else, one of the other receivers was hurt, right? They were basically playing with Nico Collins and Schultz.

Right, but the Colts were bad. Like, they took advantage of it. They faced seven playoff teams this year, three in the conference finals last year. So I think this is tough. I know it's easy early on schedule-wise. I'm not going to say they're going to be a bad team. I just, I could see them going nine and eight.

Danil Hunter is a good compliment to Will Anderson. He had 16 sacks, but watch this Stefan Diggs. He is going to be a story starting week two. You're that, you really think the third receiver on a really good team could single-handedly, they'll just cut him.

Is nine and a half the Vegas zone for over-unders? I feel like it's such a trap. Feels like there's been more nine and a half the Vegas zone for over-unders? I feel like it's such a trap. Just like there's been more nine and a half this year than ever before. Well,

so here's the case against Houston. By the way, I'm going to pick somebody else to make the Super Bowl later. I just wanted to get your reaction for Houston

and make Super Bowl. I have a second Super Bowl pick in the AFC. Oh, wow. This is going to be some game. Nobody's ever done it. I researched it. Nobody's ever done it. I researched it. Nobody's ever picked two Super Bowl teams in one conference.

If you go with the can't believe they missed the playoffs list and the kind of can't believe it list, which I told you before, it's like between minus plus 125 and plus 160. So last year, the teams that missed, Jets plus 110, Saints plus 126, and Jaguars plus 160. This year, to miss the playoffs, Bills plus 128, Green Bay plus 128,

Miami plus 128. You're going down the line. Houston's plus 154 to miss the playoffs. They're basically like, come bet on this. And I look at that list. Bills, Green Bay, Miami, Jets, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas. Trying to find two, three teams from that. And I could see Houston.

This is from the kind of can't believe it. Kind of can't believe it, but there's always three of them that make it. Yeah. So, anyway, that would be the case. There's too many people on the bandwagon to the point. For sure. I really like the team, though.

The biggest problem against it is it's a very winnable division, right? And I've gone back and forth with these teams. One other thing I should have mentioned. Ryan's a top five coach now. I mean, has anybody been raved about who's coming to the league as a coach in the last five years everybody fucking loves him so they're

they're basically nailing the QB coach thing it's like the reverse of Brissette and Mayo or Antonio Pearson right right right Gardner Minshew they have the opposite

where they're just like if you're gonna rank both those categories one to ten they have like a ten and a ten yeah and a good enough team

to put around those dudes. I'm in. All right. I'm slightly under. Okay. So I think we still agree on like two. Yeah.

Jacksonville, eight and a half is the over. Division plus 270. If you want to go nuts and have them for 11 plus wins, plus 250. Playoffs, plus 116.

This is my favorite team to discuss in the AFC. They went nine and eight playoffs plus 116 this is my favorite team to discuss in the AFC they went 9-8 the last two years this is your Super Bowl team right? this is going to be

my second Super Bowl pick last year they were 8-3 and fell apart Trevor Lawrence I tried to add it up he had four injuries he hurt his knee his shoulder

his ankle and he had a concussion to the point that even I was out on him even last week when I was doing the pod with Stephen Ruiz was talking about them. I was like, yeah, I'm out. And then I did my final round of research this week.

And I was like, this is just a classic zag team. By low. Just classic by low. Nobody's on them. And if you actually look and you go under the hood and you look at the engine it's like ah they were 8-3 last year and just weird shit happened

they definitely got better they added Eric Armstead they beefed up their defensive line it seems like they lucked out Brian Thomas Jr. at receiver he's the best receiver

Lawrence has had they have a new center they took Buffalo Center you know they were 10th in DBOA last year on defense Jacksonville yeah

and that's before their big guy changed his name. It's not Josh Allen anymore. Josh Allen Hines or something like that. I like it. It's a hyphen guy now. Huge move. And really the only way they got worse was they lost Calvin Ridley, but they replaced him with Thomas.

So the over seems like a gift. Eight and a half. They got to get nine and eight. I think they go 10 and seven. Good. We agree here. Great. And, you know,

the London games are becoming theirs, right? Right. They've won five out of six and now they have Chicago and New England. And they stay there. So, they have a tough start.

This is another one you might want to wait on before you pick them to win the division or something. Although you have Houston going to the Super Bowl, so you're not going to do that. At Miami, Cleveland,

at Buffalo, at Houston. So, you might want to wait. You're right about Armstead. Takes away the double teams from Trayvon Walker and Josh Allen Hines. They're going to be able to rush the passer. They're going to be able to throw the ball. The London thing has turned into one of the

biggest advantages in the league, and especially they're going to be playing Chicago in the pats back-to-back. I'm just penciling those for two minutes. If you give the Chargers an opportunity to beat the home team in London, they would take it in a second, right? They'll be like, we'll take all eight. 14,000 miles, but still worth it. So they were a really good team, Jacksonville, for a year and a half.

Yeah. And then we just dropped it because they fell down the stretch. And there's a Lawrence piece to this season with them that if he has it, we kind of have to see it, I think, this year. He's got C.J CJ Stroud in the division now and that's a potential rivalry that could be really fun. you know,

he's kind of out of excuses. If he's a franchise, they paid him like a franchise could be a huge contract. He's got weapons. They've spent a lot of capital, free agent capital, draft pick capital,

just trying to get him receivers and weapons and Travis Etienne and all that stuff. I just feel like it has to happen this year. And I like their schedule. They end with Las Vegas, Tennessee, yeah, and then Annapolis. That's what I was going to say.

So if they're in it, it's right there for them at the end. Yeah, last five is at Tennessee, home Jets, at Vegas, home Tennessee, at Indy. Yeah, 10 wins feels great. Gabe Davis, Christian Kirk, Zayay Jones and Brian Thomas is a good solid you know it's like no Tyreek Hills in there

but they're all gonna get the job done I think alright we're both over yep next one is Indianapolis a very tough one to figure out they're over as 8.5

some juice on that plus 104 divisions plus 310 playoffs plus 152 if you're excited about them you can also go under 7.5 wins plus 172 on FanDuel about them. You can also go under.

7.5 wins plus 172 on FanDuel. Last year, they were 9-8 with Minshew. And if you're going to say here's how they're better, I really like their receiver as a group with Pittman, Downs, Mitchell, the rookie everybody's going nuts about, and Pierce. Four good receivers as a combo.

Jonathan Taylor, no drama with him this year. Latu is a pass rusher. They drafted him, maybe. And then the Richardson piece. But the Richardson thing, I can't get there. I want to see it. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I'm not going over on them until I see him complete a bunch of passes.

I know it's all there. He's basically like Cam Newton 2.0, whatever you want to call it. But I want to see it. And from what I've seen in the preseason and what I've read, he seems really raw. Not to mention he got hurt twice last year. So Flacco's their backup, ironically. Right. I couldn't get there.

Yeah, I took him under also. So we'll agree on this one. I also, when did these over-unders come out? In like March or something? Yeah. I must have flip-flopped on the Colts 15 times. I'll probably flip-flop during this segment. I'll probably go back.

I might pick them to the Super Bowl. Yeah, you already have them in your Super Bowl. But they were weird last year. First of all, they're 0-9-1 in Week 1 games in the last 10. So count that as a loss against Houston. Their rest advantage goes from plus four to minus 17. That's big. Last year, they won nine games without their starter,

but they also played 10 quarterback rookies or backups. So you go, and I don't want to lend too much credence to the preseason, but I got that same feeling with Anthony Richardson. Like, why are we going so crazy about this? He feels like he's going to have some great moments and some awful moments.

Yeah. And there's going to be times when you like bet on the Colts at home minus four and he just does nine terrible things. And then there's other games when he does like what Fields

did a couple of times for the Bears where he just single-handedly athletically just took over the game. We should come up with a category for guys we wouldn't mind having on our fantasy team

because Anthony Richardson's also always... I see. I think he's too high in fantasy. But still, you wouldn't want to bet him in a game. He's got to be too high in fantasy. He's higher than C.J. Stroud in fantasy, which is nuts. It's bonkers. C.J. Stroud, well, we'll get to him when we do the props.

They end New England, Denver, Tennessee Giants, all cold weather. So, on the road. There's also a world where Latu's not that good as a pass rusher. Taylor's just not the same guy anymore. Two years ago, Taylor never comes back. And I like other teams more in the division. All right, we're both under on them.

And then the last one is Tennessee. The over for them is 6.5, some juice on that, plus 104. Division plus 950 that, plus 104. Division plus 950. Playoffs plus 360. If you want to go the other way, worst record is 10-1. If you want to go under 4.5, wins adjusted, plus 235. They're 6-11 last year. They lost Mike Vrabel, replaced him with Brian Callahan.

Drafted a left tackle. Spent money on cornerbacks. Sneed and Awuze. They signed Ridley. Hopkins is gone for, what, six weeks? Yeah, I think about that, yeah. They got Tyler Boyd, too. No Derrick Henry.

Drop off to Pollard. I don't like it at all. Yeah, I don't either. This is another weird team. You would think they'd be in a rebuilding stage, except they did spend a lot of money. They don't seem like a team that is packing it in this year, but that offensive line is supposed to be like 30th in the league.

It's so bad that it's in the vicinity of the Pats offensive line without being as bad. Yeah. But, yeah, you have that combined with Will Levis, who's probably the bravest quarterback in either conference who just takes huge bad. Yeah. But yeah, you have that combined with Will Levis, who's probably the bravest quarterback in either conference who just takes huge hits.

Yeah. So it's like, all right, they can't block. Mayonnaise in the coffee is brave too. Yeah. And this guy loves

to just take on everybody. Like he's, I don't see him playing 17 games. Malik Willis, they just traded for a seventh round pick. That was funny.

Yeah. Look, they have 14 1 p.m. games. They have one primetime game at Miami, which they won last year. That was weird. They're going to get off to a slow start at Chicago Jets, Green Bay, and at Miami. So where

do you see these seven wins coming from? I don't see it. And I didn't even have an easy stretch for them in the schedule. That week 17, 7-13 stretch, other than that Pat's home game, is a schedule. That week 17, seven to 13 stretch, other than that Pat's home game is, is a nightmare and their division is going to be really good. I had in the better or worse,

um, they lost Braybel and Derek Henry and replaced them with the Hawk to a girl. Really? Nashville, right? Yeah. I didn't see that. I think they lost that trade.

Wow. Yeah. She doesn't want to be known as that anymore. She's now she's being known by her real name. Oh yeah they lost that trade. Wow. Yeah. She doesn't want to be known as that anymore. Now she's being known by her real name. Oh. Yeah. She has a real name? Yeah.

No. And what's her real name? Does she have a real name? Jack doesn't know. Jack's pretending he doesn't know. Jack, come on. Haley something? Yeah, Haley something.

Bill has her going to the Super Bowl. They're at Chicago week one, home jetsets, home Green Bay, at Miami. That feels like an 0-4 starter. That's what I mean. So we're going to get seven wins the rest of the way. They might have some nice fantasy numbers once in a while, but their pass rush, even with Autry gone, is going to be even worse. Yeah, and when I did the chippers, it's Ridley and Simmons and Snead

and Stonehouse, one of their special teams guys, and then we're done. And their QBs are a minus two. I had them for six points total. It was one of the lowest teams. Stonehouse. I think you're just combining your college friends' names. So we have both under six and a half on that. I want to do a borderline lock for that,

but the new coach might not be bad. I was reading about a borderline lock for that, but the new coach might not be bad. I was reading about him. I love Rabel, but they might have actually hired a decent coach. And that's the thing. I probably would have given them an extra win just because of Rabel, but now that he's gone, it's a iffy. He might be good. We forgot to mention the Cleveland section that he's helping out.

Cleveland. The what? In the Cleveland section. Oh, Rabel. Yeah. Alright, what do you have for a prop for this division? We have Jackson in the division. I have Trevor Lawrence, five or more touchdowns, a plus 420. He had five in 2022. He had four last year and sat out, what, a game and a half and was probably injured for more than that.

Plus 420 for five rushing touchdowns. Jump on that, Simon. That seems pretty good. Yeah. I hope he takes it easy and doesn't hurt our over though. I have C.J. Stroud most passing yards in the league plus 700.

And I have a parlay, which you can do on Fando on our little parlay thing. Where do we find that? I forgot that. I'm going to plug the futures thing. Futures fusion. Mahomes and Stroud both to throw for 4,000 yards plus one-on-one. I'm going to plug the futures thing. Futures fusion. Mahomes and Stroud both to throw for 4,000 yards plus one-on-one. I'm going to get Fando to boost that too.

You could do that? You have that kind of power? I'm going to tell them to boost it. I'm just going to tell them. You guys boost this. You boost this right now. Boost this. I forgot to mention when we did the AFCs,

the Brees Hall rushing title was like 9-1 plus 9-50. Yeah. That seems high. Who else is going to win the rushing title? Can I tell you something? You're not doing season leader bets anymore? No, I am. But have you done a draft yet?

A fantasy draft? No. It's kind of depressing. There used to be like six or eight solid running backs. You have to decide, oh, I got to bid on this guy. Or I got to take him. Oh, my God. It It's kind of depressing. There used to be like six or eight solid running backs. You have to decide, oh, I got to bid on this guy or I got to take him. Oh my God, it's their kind of...

Now it's like, no, no, you're nuts if you don't take Bijan Robinson with the fourth pick. I'm like, am I? Brees Hall, same thing. No, no, he's the best.

Like, what happened? I'm in a guillotine draft this year. You are doing well. Well, somebody wrote me in as their partner and we ended up with the first pick

and we took Brees Hall. Yeah. Were you excited about it? I kind of was. Did you get tingly? I like Broussard. Yeah, I got a little tingly. I don't know.

What happened to the running backs? I'm just saying these running backs, it's nuts. Okay. We're taking a break and then we'll do

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this with love. Put on some lo-fi beats and get going with our step-by-step study support. Your weekend will thank you. Small steps today means big wins tomorrow. With Chegg. Subscribe today. You got this. One last thing on the AFC South. Exact order on FanDuel. Houston,

Jacksonville, Indy, Tennessee, plus 650. Would you think about that one? Flipping Jacksonville and Houston? I might do both, right? So what's the other way?

Jacksonville, Houston, Indy, Tennessee. 8-1? 10-1. Wow. Oh yeah, do both. There's some of these you can do both. I think it's pretty safe. Because I don't see any world where Jacksonville and Houston are 1-2 in some direction unless Richardson just becomes amazing.

Yeah. So we need Tennessee to come in last, basically. People really do like Richardson. I hate like zagging against him. But I just think he's... You're asking a lot, man. You're just going to come in. You missed all last year.

Right. I don't love it. You're already sending three teams to the Super Bowl from that division. What are you going to do? Well, here's the fourth. AFC West, Kansas City, over 11.5 wins. Not a lot of juice on that, actually. Minus 112.

Division minus 270. Conference plus 350. Super Bowl plus 550. Number one seed plus 380. 13 plus wins, all adjusted, plus 186. You go 14 and 3, they're plus wins, all adjusted, plus 186. You go 14 and three, they're plus 330. They do that.

How are they better? Might be better at receiver because it looks like Rasheed Rice isn't getting suspended and they added Worthy who just looks like a cheat code and a Hollywood brand. They got rid of Kaderis Tony.

And got rid of Kaderis Tony. And Valdez Scanling. New left tackle the rookie Samantaya that we talked about earlier that it looks like they stole at the end

of the second round last year they had 15 fumbles by people that weren't their QB right their right tackle alone

had 19 penalties their receivers had 34 drops which was third in the league turnover differential was fourth worst in the league. Turnover differential was fourth worst in the league. So it was one of those years

they went 11 and six, everything went wrong and they just, because they have such good infrastructure, pieced it together, won four straight games, won the Super Bowl. It feels like they're better this year, Sal.

That's my takeaway. And I went over. I think 12 and five, 13 and four seems realistic to me. That's my takeaway. And I went over. I think 12-5, 13-4 seems realistic to me. So over for me. I went under but slightly, 11-6. And it's stupid probably to bet against them. They're 9-2 to the over under Andy Reid in the last 11. 10 or more wins in 10 of the 11 seasons.

Their defense is excellent. It's so underrated. They have 57 sacks last year, second. This Steve Spagnola has four rings from being defensive coordinator. You don't hear his name a lot. Maybe I'll say it like four more, five more times, but I'm looking at their

schedule. They have a bye before San Francisco. They're 21-3 after the byes. The only thing I worry about with this team is they saw that they could do it all on the road, which we hadn't seen out of the Chiefs

until last year, right? So they won the playoff games on the road. Do they cut back? Do they not try as... I don't want to say they don't try as hard in the regular season.

Is this something maybe to consider with that? I worry about the Kelsey piece just because he's basically said, I know I have to be ready for four rounds. Right. So he's pacing himself. Someone like I have to be ready for four rounds. Right. So he's pacing himself.

Someone like that, yeah. But I think the fact that their line is definitely going to be better, I think makes some of this easier for them. Their receivers are definitely going to be better. I talked last week on my pod about this Worthy, the way they're using him as he's like this toy for Andy Reid. He's basically like this Tyreek light discount Tyreek. Just send him in all these different weird motion things.

Chiefs won the Super Bowl. They should have the fastest guy on the planet on the team. Right. Let's see what this does. So, part of me wonders if the over-under

is going to come down to that first game of the season against Baltimore. Hmm. Where they're home against Baltimore. It looks like their receivers

are going to be a little banged up for that game. Yeah. And, you know know like Joe House loves Baltimore as an underdog already I just wonder if that's going to be the swing game between 12 wins and 11 wins yeah it's not as easy anymore their extra game is at San Francisco

at Buffalo, Houston they play the AFC North I think the question is what do you see them doing in the division? Is it a 5-1 route or is it 4-2? It might not be because the division's better. The reason, the biggest reason other than I actually think they're weirdly better than last year, but I was looking at the Pats,

the second run of the Pats from basically the 2010s. 2010 through 2019. They were 14 wins, 13, 12, 12, 12, 12, 14, 13, 11, 12. They made three Super Bowls, two Super Bowl losses, three conference finals, eight out of 10 years, right? And they just were like-

I know this is therapeutic. It's fun. The memories are great. I'm really enjoying myself. Some of those 12s were probably under the win total, by the way. But there's just the infrastructure. They had it.

The Chiefs from 18 to 23, so that's six years, 12, 12, 14, 12, 14, 11, three Super Bowls, one Super Bowl loss. Crazy. Two conference finals. And I just think it's stupid to bet against them for any reason unless they tell us it's time, which the 2019 Pats hit that too, right? It was finally, well, I can't bet against them for any reason unless they tell us it's time, which the 2019 Pats hit that too, right? It was finally well, can't bet against them. And then finally,

but at that point, we had won every bet year after year after year. And the Chiefs with Mahomes not even in his 30s yet. I just don't see why you would go under. I think you can, because I think they could be 11-6 and we could be looking at each other like, well, they're the best team going into January. They could still be 11 and six

with that schedule. Black Friday against the Raiders, they'll probably win that. Christmas against the Steelers. They have some weird... They play every game day of the week except Tuesday. That's not a lie. They do. They're trying to squeeze them onto a Tuesday game. I'll tell you this. Super Bowl plus

550. I like it. I haven't gone to the Super Bowl. Well, have we named this? Didn't we say we should just name this fund where you bet Mahomes MVP separately with the Chiefs Super Bowl and every three or four years you'll collect? It has a mutual fund. It's just going to win. I have Houston KC, AFC title game.

Right. And I really wanted to take KC for the Super Bowl. And I'm joking, obviously. I already picked Houston. Right. The three-peat, I couldn't get past it. The fact that we've had the Super Bowl since 1967. Yeah.

And we've had all of these awesome teams. And nobody's won three Super Bowls in a row. Nobody. It hasn't happened once. And I was just like, I really want to take the Chiefs again. I'm just like, I'm not doing it. And I'm sure we're going to hear the rhetoric next week about, oh, they'll tell you they don't care about the three people.

Trust me, they do. They know nobody in history has done this and all that. I just don't. So they're going to try harder? Like these teams try hard, whatever the situation is. Do we think it's all, like, we have to mention Taylor Swift there, right? Well,

we have that too. Well, I just feel like it's just too easy for them to breeze through everything for the rest of everybody's life.

Right. Well, you even think like there was some karma stuff to share with them, like Bucker got in all that trouble, they've had some

legal issues. Sure, right. But we know that doesn't work because the Patriots won three Super Bowls after Aaron Hernandez.

So it's like, throw that out the window too oh you admit he's guilty I'm glad I do think he might have been guilty I looked at the case again so the case for Houston beating KC in the AFC title game or round two whenever it happens for me because I was really trying to think like do I really believe this I don't want

to do like the Nick Wright I'm just throwing crazy takes out. I'm hoping to get aggregated. Sorry, Nick. I really think Houston, if they have the one seed in their home and KC has to go there and it's in a dome and they have their coach,

I could see them beating KC. Yeah. I'm less bullish on them going to Tara Head. So I think part of that Houston case, that's why I like the one seed too. I think they have to get the one seed. I'm going Buffalo

for the conference for that same reason. I think they could do it on the road. Again, coin flip game against the Chiefs last year. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes,

you're not going to convince me that one is definitely going to play better than the other. So you're picking Buffalo to make the Super Bowl? Buffalo's making the Super Bowl. That was your, why didn't you make that pick earlier? I don't know. I thought we were waiting on it. So you're picking Buffalo to make the Super Bowl? Buffalo's making the Super Bowl. That was your,

why didn't you make that pick earlier? I don't know. I didn't, I thought we were waiting on it. But we did the Buffalo odds. So the Buffalo Super Bowl odds. Yeah. 17 to one.

Yeah. Nine to one for the conference. Beautiful. You're in on Buffalo. Yeah. Why not? Wow. You said they have a top two quarterback.

They do. All right. Okay. Anything else on KC or should we keep going? We can keep right. Okay. Anything else on KC or should we keep going? We can keep moving. Okay. The Chargers.

Over. Eight and a half wins with juice. Everybody loves it. Playoffs, plus 118. Division, plus 390. 11 plus wins, plus 220. Last year, 5 and 12 the new coach theory

one of my favorites 2022 it hit with Dayball and the Giants and Peterson and Jacksonville 2023 hit with D'Amico Ryans in Houston 2024 our nominees are Mike McDonald in Seattle

Raheem Morris in Atlanta, Harbaugh in the Chargers, or Dan Quinn in Washington. Kyle Brandt made the case for Harbaugh on my podcast last week. I completely agree. You go from Brandon Staley to Harbaugh, I don't know how many wins that's worth,

but they were 5-12 last year and it's got to be worth at least 4. I am going over, but I'm going a little even more over than that. I have them as a playoff team. Whoa. Yeah. All right.

I do. I think they're a year away. I'm going over also, and I hate it because this is one of the few sexy picks that everybody likes, and I'm going with it. But Harbaugh comes to town. New energy, maybe new fans.

Can they get fans to show up at SoFi can they get a home game an actual home game you have a better chance of going downtown LA and not being freaked out by somebody the only

yeah that's not gonna happen god I drove I drove downtown LA today to come to the studio and it was I was like snake pliscid and escaped from New York

I thought like the music was gonna start playing I'm sleeping over yeah I'm not leaving Gavin is doing a great job you can figure it I don't know about this roster though. That's the only thing. Is it as impressive as like Harbaugh can win games. He could do the rah-rah thing. He can get his players stuck in elevators and say it was an accident when he was really just

testing them. But is this roster better? I guess Edwards and Dobbins for Eckler is okay. And you know, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were injury prone. And so now they have Josh Palmer, Ladd McConkie, the rookie, DJ Chark. Receivers aren't great. But we've seen good quarterbacks and good coaches win with mediocre receivers. Herbert already being hurt made me nervous. Defense is getting a little old. Like Bosa is great, but missed 14 games in two years.

Mack is 33. I had five guys marked on there. Mack was really good last year though. Bosa, Mack, Samuel, James, and Gilman. Their kicker is awesome.

Dicker. Go win them like two games. And their offensive line is much better. I mean, that's a huge part of if you're gonna make the case for them,

they took Joe Alt, top seven pick, Bozeman, they brought him in. and the Harbaugh vibes, which by all accounts, it's night and day. I mean, you have to remember, the new coach theory fundamentally comes down to whoever was in there before was like the worst substitute teacher ever. And just like, you know, it was the first 40 minutes of a high school movie where you had the worst teacher ever. And then the star of the movie comes in.

Right. And all of a sudden the kids are studying and they're showing up for the projects. Yeah. Chains to doors. That's Harbaugh. And it always hits. In football, these teams, we have a salary cap.

They all have drafts. They all kind of go up and down a little bit. For the most part, the talent's around the same. And if you have a coach that's here replacing a coach that's here, we know that it works and they have the quarterback. I'm with you. I mean, listen, it comes down to the Chargers over the last how many years

their most impressive games have been losses. Every freaking year. Four of them. So I think the schedule is going to let them get to at least nine wins. How about this start? Home Vegas at Carolina to start the year. They're easy QB opponents. Teams they're playing that have either,

I would say, a below mediocre or worse QB. Pats, Saints, Carolina, Tennessee, Vegas twice, Denver twice, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, maybe Tampa Bay. That's like most of their schedule. They don't have to play any they play Mahomes twice

you're right I mean their extra games are Arizona New England and Tennessee that's kind of all you need to say but I just wish

it's the second easiest schedule I just wish their roster was a little more impressive they were also minus two Pythagorean last year

which a stat I barely understand where it tells you they were 5-12 but they should have gone 7-10 I don't know Pythagorean last year, which is a stat I barely understand where it tells you they were 5-12, but they should have gone 7-10. Yeah, I can't even say it. Pythagorean. Yeah. Las Vegas, over 6.5, minus 142 on that.

A lot of juice. 10-1 to win the division. I am violently under on this thing. Wow. And I did explore some of the worst record, 14 to 1, under 4.5 wins, plus 340. They have a bottom three coach QB combo in the league. And the history of the interim coach taking over from a disaster coach

works out, doesn't it? And doing okay. And then people are like, you should give him the job. I'm like, yeah, give him the job. And then he's terrible. you should give him the job. I'm like, yeah, give him the job. And then he's terrible. That happens most of the time. The John Gruden drafts, they're still recovering from how bad

those drafts were. And they have three of the best coaches in the NFL are all in their division. And their quarterback situation is yikes. So basically they have a good pass rush and they have good tight ends and that's it. Devontae Adams will be unhappy. It's weird.

It seems like there's some buzz building for them as getting a little sleepy. And I couldn't see it less. I don't understand it. I like them. You like them? What do you like? Tell me what you like. I like them.

Antonio Pierce led them to 8-9. They're not afraid of anybody. They punched the Chiefs in the mouth. You could say it was lucky. I think they get seven wins. I have them as a playoff team. I do. I think their offensive line is good. I think they're going to they could have a great tight end system

here with Mayer and Brock Bowers. Do they have a quarterback that I don't know about? No. You don't need a quarterback. Because I checked in their quarterbacks the last time I looked with Gardner Minshew and Aiden O'Connell. Aiden O'Connell. He wasn't that bad. He wasn't that bad. Aiden O'Connell wasn't that bad compared to who? He beat the Chiefs.

Like CFL quarterbacks? They have 10 home games if you count the two in LA. I think they're in good shape. They got that Christian Wilkins, who you like, from Miami. I do like him. Crosby, Tyree Wilson, Koontz. They're going to have a good pass rush for sure. They're like a gutty team.

They added that Jack Jones from the Patriots. So, I don't know. Jack Jones from the Patriots. He got arrested don't know. Jack Jones from the Patriots. He got arrested. I think it's... Is he arrested? Well, not anymore. Oh.

All right. They have tough stretches, but, you know, Jacksonville, New Orleans. But here's the problem in the end. Your best quality on your team is the pass rush. Mm-hmm. But you have an offense that's not probably going to be able to score that much.

Yeah. And you're going to be behind in a lot of games, which kind of negates the point of having a pass rush. I don't understand that part. I would want a pass rush if I had Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson, not having Aiden O'Connell and Gardner Minshew. And I think I was probably one of the biggest Minshew fans, but the Colts, the receivers they had, and the coach they had, Steichen,

like that's as good as we're ever going to do with them. And they didn't make the playoffs in a better situation. Well, have two great pass-catching tight ends, and maybe that'll help. I think that's what they have. Well, Michael Mayer's a great pass-catching tight end. I didn't get that memo. Rookie tight end, Brock Bowers.

I was going to send you a memo. I want this to be my secret. But I think I have to pick one of these teams to, you know, kind of can't believe it or wherever we have the Raiders in to make the playoffs. That's it. That's my surprise. Okay. So at Chargers at Baltimore week one, week two.

I think they have to win one of those two for you to be alive for that. Yeah. After that, home Carolina, home Cleveland. And then who knows? Front seven is good. Schedule who knows? Front seven is good. Schedule's pretty tough. Defense is good. Week six to 11 is kind of tough, but I like the way they're built.

They play the AFC North and the NFC South this year. I don't see it, Sal. All right. Look, I'm going to be wrong about at least 80% of these. Wow, so we disagreed about as much as I can remember for a conference. Yeah. So my surprise... We're not done yet, are we?

We have Denver? Oh, yeah. We have Denver. Forgot about Denver. Sorry, Denver. Denver is over five and a half is the total. Minus 128 juice on that.

Playoffs plus 590 if you want to go. Every year there's a five to one and up playoff team that actually makes it. That 590, if you want to go. Every year, there's a 5-1 and up playoff team that actually makes it. That went down. That was 8-1 last year. Yeah, there's been some buzz with this team as like, wait, why is that overrunner so low? And hey,

there's been some good Bo Nix stuff. Sean Payton year two. I'm going over, and I also really like 8-plus wins at plus 310, I thought was a fun bet. But offensive line is good. Bo Nix has checked all the boxes, apparently. I think they're going to be able to run the ball.

The wide receivers are so deep, they're trying to trade Tim Patrick, which I didn't understand. I think they caught him. I don't even know. The case against it is they lost those Russell Wilson trade picks, and they waived him

and took a huge cap space hit. But, I don't know. The fact that they went 8-9 last year was like, I thought one of the achievements of the 2023 season. Right.

How did they go 8-9? I would have thought they went like 3-14. Right. And they would have gone 9-8 if we didn't beat them at the game Kyle and I watched that cost us the first pick of the draft.

You shouldn't have done that. Yeah. But we love Drake May. But, yeah, they were a Patriots comeback from having an above 500 record last year. So, I don't know. Five and a half wins seems insulting. I think their defense is going to be bad.

I think their defense is insulting. They should be bottom five pressure D. They lost Justin Simmons, the all-pro one, to Atlanta. You know, 30th ranked last year. They used most of their draft picks on offensive skill players, except for Ellis. They gave up five yards per carry. I just don't see that getting better.

Yeah, you like Corton Sutton. He has had like nine quarterbacks. After a while, it's kind of your fault. They've had no wins at the Raiders or Chiefs since 2015. I didn't like that. They end with Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs. They're on the road three out of the first four to start. Look, I love Bo Nix.

I've seen him live. But I think this is one of my candidates for worst record. I got Denver under. I test drove them as a playoff team, and I couldn't get there. But I just don't think Sean Payton is... There's certain coaches that I just don't see having them having shitty teams. Right? Seven, six, whatever.

I mean, your Patriots didn't do so hot last year. They didn't. That coach was good. Our coach was old and now he's dyed eyebrows. What do you got for your prop? Well, the Chiefs have for the division eight in a row.

They know how to win the most important games. But Crosby, 15 or more sacks plus 250. He's right there. He had 12 and a half last year.

14 and a half last year. 12 and a half in 22. He's got some help with Wilkins opening up the middle. Malcolm Coot's on the other side at eight sacks, so he's to be considered not as many double, triple teams. That's my prop.

I kind of like that. My prop is a complete zag against you and everyone else who pleads in Vegas. I like the under five and a half wins, which is now plus 198. For the Raiders? Yeah.

Five and 12 are worse. Two to one outs. All right. You know what I like betting against? Bad quarterbacks. It was five and five Aiden O'Connell.

There's worse. Come on. There's worse than him. I picked him up on my fantasy team. Aiden O'Connell is not a starting quarterback. He's not.

That's your fault. I'd rather have Zach Wilson. We have to have two quarterbacks in that dumb league. I knowConnell is not a starting quarterback. He's not. That's your fault. I'd rather have Zach Wilson. We have to have two quarterbacks in that dumb league. I know, that was a dumb role. All right, any final thoughts

before we move to the NFC? No, just... So you have Buffalo winning the conference. Yeah, close to 10 to 1. I think that's a good number.

So to recap, you'd like Buffalo to win the conference and Vegas as a playoff team. Vegas makes the playoffs. Those are your two wildest ones. That's it. And mine are Pittsburgh

being the second AFC team. Allen and Burrow not to be in the playoffs. Oh, no Buffalo in the playoffs, you're saying? I don't think I have Buffalo in the playoffs. Oh, wow. Hold on. Let me check to make sure that's true. Yeah, I have.

Just one team from the AFC. I have Casey, Houston, the Jets, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and the Chargers as my seven playoff teams. Yeah. But I might be wrong. It's Jets or Bills in a coin flip. So I think we agreed on probably four of the 16 or five of the 16. That's the least we've agreed on ever.

But those are going to win. That'll have a good winning percentage. Somebody's going to be unhappy. Yeah. All right. We're going to take this to a part two later in the week. Cousin Sal, great to see you as always. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti.

And everyone else will help produce this little show and we'll see if we can do it again. Let's do it again in 30 seconds. Okay. On the wayside, on the wayside, never on the side. I don't have feelings with them. On the wayside, on the wayside, never on the side. I don't have feelings with them. Must be 21 plus and president select states for Kansas and affiliation with

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