The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

Episode Date: August 28, 2026

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal and Joe House LIVE on Netflix for Part 1 of their annual NFL over/unders pod. First up: the NFC! (0:00) Intro (1:30) NFC East (37:08) NFC North (01:06:31) NFC South (01:33:57) NFC West Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Cousin Sal and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Jonathan Frias  NBA 2K27 | Ball Over Everything The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Search free until August 31st. Visit Ancestry.ca for details. Terms apply. This episode is brought to you by NBA 2K-27. We just had one of the craziest off-seasons we've had in the NBA, which is perfect for 2K, because every 2K season can be one of the craziest off-season. The whole league shifted in real life.

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Pick up your copy of NBA 2K 27 right now. Let's go. Let's go. Yeah, baby. Year 20 for us, because... Wow. We have been doing podcast together about the NFL

since the 2007 season. I did the math. That's 20 years this year. Hold on a second. I don't know if we did over and 107, but this is our 20th season together. We brought some special guests. Farah Fawcett is here.

One of the people we had our first crushes on. I think she likes me. She's a little... Don Johnson's going to have a couple of cigarettes. And then Joe House in the Craig Cee. Wow. Wow. Amazing. He looks so much more alive than Don and Farrah.

How did you get that poster? I wore my goat hat because I'm humming on. It's a Joe House poster. To be here with the goats. Is Don Johnson going to be upset when we take the dolphins under two and a half ones? I think he's going to be upset. Joe House is going to chime in after every division and then also be a tiebreaker for us every once in a while. All right.

We don't want to mess with the format too much. But that house is here. We're doing a big ringer fantasy football. draft tomorrow. Fantasy's already quit the draft five times, but we're doing that live on Netflix tomorrow. And this is a two-part podcast. This is the NFC, win total overenders, and then that's going to be live on Netflix. And then AFC will be running on Sunday. We're doing it all once today. This is one of my favorite days of the year. We have some redemption stuff, Sal. I don't, neither of us did that well last year. No, I know. It was an off year for us. A lot of red markings there.

What happened? Because the higher-end stuff, I feel like I did well. And it was like the middle class. Well, that's why this is the best day of the year because we're going to go 32 and 0 after today. And then week one when Cincinnati actually loses the whole first month. I'm like, oh, what the hell happened? Well, so big picture. Everyone has too much information now. Yeah.

This is the hardest. You guys have been doing on a ringer game like show, division by division. You've done a great job of not tipping your hand. Thank you. You and I, the whole summer, really the first year, we've really tried to not tell each other what we're thinking. Yeah. It's like a bride and groomer.

aren't supposed to see each other the day of the wedding, but ours is for like 60 days. House knows some of my stuff. We went over some stuff today as we, as we digested Bianco's pizza from last night. We had a lot of pizza. You don't, you haven't been, you've been healthier. Cutting down on a, I presented my plate to you. I'm like, look, look what I've turned into. I've turned into Bill Simmons. So like half the crust was left. But yeah. Meanwhile, I was eating pizza. I'm wearing a seatbelt now. I don't know what's happened to me. I don't know if I believe that or not. that's just to get everyone off your case. No, I've been wearing it.

You have? Yeah, I've had their witnesses. How's that going? It's confining. That is true. That is the one thing they say about that. It's confining. It's claustrophobic.

Do you wear one on a plane? Only if they yell at me. Okay. So you need to be stored. I just feel like on a plane, it's nothing good's happening either way. I agree. It's not like, oh, that guy who wore a seatbelt got saved during the crash. What about in a submarine?

Oh, forget it. Let's not talk about crashes before we're about to do NFC overrunners. So every year, the Cous and I, we pick the over under totals, which we're getting from Fandall, Fandall Sportsbook. They're getting better or better at the juice at the totals. We're not going to deal. We'll mention if the juices, but we can't do anything about the juice.

There's some minus 135s. There's some minus one thirties. We're talking about some alt lines. They've given us too many options. Years ago, in 2007, imagine if we had alt lines. Like, oh, my God, we lose our minds. But now it's like, oh, this is the cheesecake factory menu. What are we going to do?

Well, you get to the point. You look at it. You form the opinions on the overrunners. And I would say about third week of August, the alt lines start becoming really appealing. And I thought even on the Reardon Show, we're going to do the NFCs first. I think it was the Bundo who was saying how this has a chance to be the one seed in this division because of the two weaker teams. And talking one seat, that stuff we couldn't have bet, I don't feel like 10 years ago. One team for your best record.

Best record in the league. Oh, that stuff. Marty losing my voice. We're only three minutes in. I'm so excited. We set the kid, like the kids are like, oh, summer's over. My wife's like, yeah, they have to go to school. I'm like, get the fuck.

Everybody go to school. Get out of here. I have three team teasers to lose. We have to talk football. Let's get to September. Enough of this. And now we're here. One of the wrinkle.

Yeah. Both of our teams have a chance to be good. You're over under's nine and a half. Mine's 10 and a half. Both of them have been thrown into our arguments about who could win a conference. Your team, dare I say, is becoming kind of the hot, the hot popular pick. Players, no one knew about emerging.

Everyone's talking about that. It's the defense. So we're going to talk about them in a second. We're going to start with the NFC East. Okay. House's division as well. Yes. Yeah.

House is just sad about the Redskins now commanders, but we'll talk about that too. We're going to start with Philadelphia Eagles. Over under 10 and a half, there's. juice on the under. Division plus 130. Feels like that's stayed the same, but the Cowboys' Division odds have dropped.

19-1 for Super Bowl, minus 162 for the playoffs. Under eight and a half wins, if you wanted to go for the everything goes wrong season plus 210. Best record 11-1. They were 11 and 6 last year. We have a little game we're going to play this year.

I had readers suggest that we should do like a, thing. Like basically a what if for every team. So it'll be their best case there. You haven't written an article in 14 years. I meant listeners. Yeah.

Just conditionally I want to say readers. Listeners. But I want to do a what if for each team. Okay. My what if for this team, what if they don't miss A.J. Brown at all. That would be the big reason not to take them, right? Definitely. Yeah.

I'm looking at, you know, when your offense is comically inefficient, what do you do? You fire the OC. Yeah. And you get rid of your stud receiver. Then that should fix everything. But yeah, you're right. He was reading books on the sideline. They didn't use them anyway.

Didn't seem great for Team Chemistry? Yeah. I found the email. It was from Joe from Charlotte. Oh, no, no, Joe for Charlotte. Sean and Patrick. He said my 11-year-old son, Patrick and I are big fans. We fake this segment at home like we're a ringer podcast says.

We play what if pick a player is good or bad. I'm going to extend that out to this. Like, what if they don't miss AJ Brown, I think is a good one. Listen, I did my talent thing with the Eagles. I think they have one of the five most stacked rosters in the league. I don't even think it's arguable. I had six guys in their defense that got points. At five guys on their offense get points.

They have a top three offensive line. They've been there. They win 10, 11 games every year. And the overrunner is 10.5. And I just don't understand it. It seems like people are anxiously trying to push this team out of the double-digit win range and kind of ignoring how loaded the roster is. I don't do you, you hate the Eagles, but do you understand this?

Well, I understand. I don't know why. What are you giving your offensive points based on? Because it's much different from year to year now, right? You have Seekoine Barker at 2,000 yards rushing, went down to 1,100. So were you going to put him right in the middle at 15? That would be a good year. Yeah, I have him like, I mean, he's somewhere between the fifth and ninth best running back?

That's not nothing. We should probably lead with the tush push, which you won't hear me complain about as much this year because they went from like 81% conversion to 64%. Hertz runs a lot less, which I'm going to talk about this a lot where quarterback's turned like 28 years old. That seems like the sweet spot. They're running less. He's already running less. He averages like six and a half attempts. House is also running less.

You're running less? A little bit. Yeah, the runs more, but he's running less. So I don't know where you put this offense. And McCoy Lemon will have to step up to replace Wicks. They're like a receiver short. It feels like.

Yeah, exactly. I actually thought they should trade it for Booty. Okay. I thought he was, I really liked him last year. I didn't enter, I get the Pats were kind of too loaded at receiver, but I thought the Texans kind of stole him.

He made big plays for us last year. Yeah, they feel like a receiver short, big Goddard ear. I just, I love good offensive lines. There's so few of them now. Right. Like Tampa has one.

They have one. You know, Buffalo has one. And I just wonder if that's like almost a cheat code now. But they're D. Carter, Davis, Bon, Greenard. Yeah. Four provol.

DeGine, Mitchell. It goes on and on. It's nice. And the GM, it does, he does, you know, he picks up two guys a year that you're like,

oh my God. Yeah, of course that worked out. But I feel like that offense, I don't know what their identity is anymore. It used to be grind. But can it be worse? They flip the coordinator again.

my argument would be you're kind of buying high on something that everybody's kind of given up on being a... But I always felt like they went too slow. Right. Like they were almost trying to protect hurts and I just don't think they're going to do that anymore. Yeah, for sure.

They play the AFC South and the NFC West in the first place schedule. They don't play a lot of good quarterbacks. They play deck twice, Daniels twice, Stafford, Caleb, Darnold, and Purdy. Sal, I have them over. It's a slight over.

It's an 116 for me. Wow. But I couldn't get to seven wins when I went through it. I just think they have too much talent. I think this is stupid. Yeah, I mean, look, they have one of two teams to make the playoffs in each of the last five years. So that helps. I hate that they have back to back.

They broke that streak of like 22 years for the NFC East, trying not to get them a third division title. I have them at nine wins. They were eight and four in one score games. Yeah. I think they're nine and eight. and I'm going to take the under, the adjusted under. I think you get plus 125 for under 9.5 if you want to do that. Oh my God.

Yeah, I'm going to shove those winnings right off. Big Dumb's. This feels personal. It is a little bit. By the way, I still do this, still do this nonsense. I was told by many people, Al said, there are websites that I'll do this for you. But I put the wins and laws. I'm like, oh, okay, I gave the Phillies a win over Arizona.

So I got to give Arizona loss. I got to go to that sheet. So I'm a maniac with this. But meticulously, I said nine and eight. Yeah, it's more likely to happen if you're holding the paper. That's what you need the paper. Right, exactly. A big thing for me, and not to spoil the rest of the discussion about the division,

but I think the other teams in this division, other than Dallas are going to be bad. And I'm just operating like Dallas and Philly can both go four and O in their divisions. Now, Philly always has the weird Washington game every year. Right. Where is it every year or every other year? It's pretty much every year. There's something weird, and you're like, Philly's a big favorite. You have them in a three-teamer or a two-teamer or some sort of parlay,

and all of a sudden they're down 10-7 in the fourth quarter. You know what happened. But here's one other thing, Sal, before we finish. Yeah. Well, first of all, new O.C., better chemistry, added Jalen Phillips and Woolen. I don't know how they keep adding free agents every year. But I feel like this is like a last harass season for them because they have these offensive linemen that are talking about retiring, right?

This is almost definitely Lane Johnson's last year. They have the Hertz contract. They paid some guys. They have some younger guys that they hit some draft picks, but they're going to have to pay those guys too. They have the Barclay money. I don't think this is sustainable past this year. And I feel like during the season,

if they need something, they're going to go get it. Kitchen sink game for I think a few teams in the NFC. It's weird to say kitchen sink for teams that have had success. But this team, the Rams in a way are all in. the lions, I think, are all in. Like, this is the window kind of closes after this, except for the fact that you're right. They play in the NFC East,

of which I gave one over, and it's going to surprise you which over I gave, but it's not this team. I'm going to be a dick. Is that what you're supposed to do from the Craig Chair? You said Jalen Phillips, he is now on Carolina. They added Greenard.

Oh, I meant greenard. Yeah. I know you meant. I like this, though, the correction. Okay, good, good, good. My bad. Don't do it for me. Don't do it for me.

Don't appreciate it. No, I meant greener. I know. I said Jaylen Phillips. You did. Phillips left. That was really good, House. I needed to be corrected.

I'm old. It's okay. So, okay. So, house is awake in the mornings. That's one thing with House. Way better in the morning. East Coast time? It's midday on the East Coast.

Yeah, he's really awake. Okay. So I'm over. You're under. They play on Thanksgiving. Could swing both of these. Dallas is nine and a half. And pretty straight.

action. Did it start at eight and a half? Yeah. And it bumped up. Last year was the opposite. You were up one and it dropped a win and it seemed like a red flag. Plus 175 for the division. Minus 120 for the playoffs, which I think is one of the single best bets. I just feel like they're one of the

seven best. Yeah, I think they're one of the seven best NFC teams. Wow. 12 plus wins plus 270. I would personally recommend the number one seed at 13 to 1 if you're going to do the 12 plus if you really like them. Best record 16 to 1. Last year, there was 7.9. and one. I hate this.

Well, let me ask you this first. I hate how excited everyone is, including me. What would you consider to be right now a successful Cowboys season? This is a what if? You're in mid-January. We're not even at the What-ifs yet. Let's say it's February 15th. The season's over.

Okay. What's a successful Cowboys season for you? Obviously, you can't say the Super Bowl, but what's like a realistic successful season? Jerry Jones, not a strong. stroke, but now what's underneath, what does he have, those mini, yeah, needs the defibrillator west, palpitations? I think, are we going to give our division picks at the end of each thing?

Yeah, I think, okay. I think nine and eight, and they don't embarrass themselves defensively. That's a success? Yeah, I think so. So you haven't even moved mentally to, we have to make the playoffs? I think, I think that could be enough to make the playoffs in this division. I do say I am really, usually, you know how it is. If I fall out of favor with this team, you'll talk me back in.

You're like, all right, let's see. Let's say they beat Carolina. They beat New Orleans. And like, we have to go through all the schedule. I'm usually in and out on this team four times. I'm never usually in on them in August. I like everything they did in the offseason. I do too.

I hate saying it. I literally liked every move. George Pickens was going to be a headache. They locked him up. Franchise tagged them with a smile, right? Giovante Williams, a miracle thousand-yard rusher last year for them. Good job.

They got him. Defensively, I love it. Malachi Lawrence. Caleb Downs is looking like the best. The edge rusher from Michigan, the third rounder. Everyone loves him. Caleb Downs was the most predictable

everybody going nuts about him in August. You knew it in the draft. It's like, this guy's going to fall four spots too low. And everybody's going to love him and he's going to be awesome immediately. They extend Quinn and Williams. Jones is not going to lose it. this Parsons trade.

If it's the last thing he does, even more than making a playoffs, he has to be able to say, I won this Michael Parsons trade. So extend Quinn and Williams. They sign Rashon Gary. They're doing good preseason. Edvon Miller as like deep, deep, deep backup.

Great. Just in case. When House's team did it, I laughed last year, but then he had like nine and a half sacks, which would have led the team. Bring him in a couple third downs in a big game.

And he's like a consultant too. Yeah. Pass a Rush consultant as well. Preseason, he kicked the crap out of the defending champ. Seahawks. They literally kick the crap out of the Saints in a joint practice. And another joint practice with the Rams, they say at the end of it, they're like, hey, we're running wind sprints, you want to join us? And they're like,

kids, go ahead, go ahead, you do your thing. And you like the coach, too. He was good last year. I do. He's not bad. Wasn't like the easiest year last year, but it seems like the team likes them. And Iber flus held them back a little. And defensively, they were garbage. Absolutely garbage has to get better. And I feel like their defense has not been the same since I watched them with House and you against the Packers in the playoffs in the living room. They lost their home field edge and they lost any kind of defensive semblance. But their new defensive coordinator. He's like he's 29 years old.

I had them at Parker. My player rankings had them at 20 points, which isn't bad. 20 and up is usually around the playoffs. I had the Eagles at 32 by the way. Yeah. Quiet drama-free cowboy season for the most part of the off season. Yeah. Like no, you don't have some weird.

contract hold out or Jerry being weird, nothing like that. My what if for this team was, what if this is the team, people seem to think the Bengals are going to be? Because I do think they're the NFC Bengals. But I think because everyone, it was like, oh, the Bengals, their defense is better. Cool. You made your defense better, but you have a better offensive line and just a better offense, I think a more reliable offense in general.

Yeah. I don't know. I just like, I never really worry about the offense. I guess it is a good comparison. But when DAC plays, I think the number is like 11 plus games. They're top eight offense always. So they're not a problem in scoring points. It's keeping them off the board.

They're moving to a three, four defense. They can move to a freaking one six. I don't give a crap. Just do something different. You got a good net rest edge, third. You get 12 games in a dome. The road games are rough. And you play some good defenses.

Philly twice, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore, Rams, Green Bay. The Giants twice, if they're going to be a good defense, who knows. Yeah. I'm a hard over. Really? Yeah, I'm a fully erect over. My word. Nine and a half.

In front of Farah here? I think I have them for 11 and 6. I did stare at the 12 plus wins at plus 270. I think some stuff would have to go right from a health standpoint, and you'd probably have to catch in that bad schedule. like one or two of those teams in a week where one of their guys are hurt or whatever. But I think it's either 11 or 12.

And this is, we're doing locks this year. I didn't tell you. What do you mean? Slap a lockdown on a pick. Oh, really? Yeah, we do this in NBA. We never really did this for NFL. Okay.

This is my first lock. Over nine and a half Dallas lock. Oh, man. This is so scary. This is just so he could yell at me. He's doing to you. When they're one and three, he could yell at me. He's like, this is your fault, but.

Well, they're not going to be one and three because I open with Washington I'm not spiteful like you. I wouldn't give your quarterback a derogatory nickname and then really push it and stay on pods and probably wear a t-shirt for week one and Drake maybe. No, I got to get that going. You're right. I like being right and winning money.

And Dallas is going to be good this year. And I think there's five teams I like in the NFC and we just did two of them. I have nine and eight and I have the Eagles at nine and eight. So we won't pick our division yet, but we have to make a decision. That's an under? That's an under.

Unfortunately, that's an under. It's better than they were last year. So it feels like an emotional hedge. Yeah. 7 and 10 to 9 and 8. Always a tough schedule. You know, the defense has a lot of work to do. Really a lot.

You know, 511 points allowed, 30 plus and 8 games. Let's get that down. Does that feel like an emotional hedge to you? A thousand percent. Okay. This is the cousin's undersell. Nine and eight. His enthusiasm.

Ridiculous. Full Quinn and Williams season? you also have the Parsons not probably coming back to like week eight and even when he comes back won't be 100%. So there'll be a lot of like, whoa, Jerry did win that trade. Oh, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Okay. Next one, the Washington C words.

Uh-oh. They're over seven and a half wins. Under six and a half on Fando plus 125. Under five and a half plus 220. worst record if you wanted to get really crazy 15 to 1 that's so mean

they were 5 and 12 last year 6 to 1 for the division by the way 7 to 1 for the Super Bowl plus 280 for the playoffs they lost tonsile for the season and I didn't like their offensive line to begin with and there's been if you're actually reading

like the day-to-day reports the big riders are going nuts really rough stuff with the offensive line which normally like not everybody has a good offensive line. But their quarterback is 127 pounds. So the skinny quarterback who got hurt last year combined with nobody can block,

right. I'm out. Man, I have them over. I like them. I think we're correctly sad here. Three in a row, we've disagreed. Yeah. A year ago, we said this is the regression team.

They had a ton of luck, right? The Hell Mary, right? The house against the Bears and all that. Daniel's terrific. They're going to get injury luck. they spent a ton of money on old players last year. This year they spent a ton of money, I think top three, 200 million, and it's a more balanced age-wise.

They were 11 months older than the next oldest team, which is gigantic difference. It doesn't seem like it. Offensive line, that part sucks for sure. But they had seven games with Jaden Daniels. I have them at eight and nine. I think, oh, and Sony-Sty-Sty-Sty-Siles. Stiles is a good pick, right?

Oh, it's a nice pickup. defensively. Style's a good pick, but it also might be, we should have taken Caleb downs, but like week five. Yeah. They got confused.

That's looming. Interesting. How about this? Wes Welker, is their tight end coach? That's a tight end coach. Why is the receiver coach? I don't know why.

I don't know. He convinced them. Plus nine rest advantage. Zero opponents coming off a buy. I see like eight wins here. Three division wins plus Indy, Tennessee and Arizona. They'll win a dumb one over Cincinnati or something.

So I got him at eight. Not only do I have them under seven and a half. It's a lock for me. It's my second lock. Really? You haven't done a lock yet. I didn't know you too. Only in the first division.

Two locks out of you. I have two locks already. God, you can't keep in his pants because. Only doing the end of the house. He's looking at Vera Fawson locking down. This schedule is it. I mean, they start out at Eagles, at Cowboys,

home Seahawks, and then they have to go to London and play the Colts. That could be 0 and 4 before we're even in October yet. or middle of October yet, but I don't see it at all. I was circling the Dan Quinn first coach fired. House was adamant this morning over coffee. No way. They'll keep them for the whole year. But I didn't think he did a good job last year either.

It could be a top five for, well, I mean, so many injuries. I think the fourth most injured team out there. He's not building the roster. Like they tried to run it back after 2024. So you can't fire him for two years. They tried, I mean, Sal made the point. They got, they tried to run back that same oldest team in the NFL that experienced veteran stuff. Of course, they had injury regression.

The other thing was they were horrific in terms of creating turnovers because all those old guys are a step behind everybody. This defense is the big wild card. There's seven new stars on the defense. So the whole season will come down to whether or not the defense, you know, is different. See, House is representing, because he's a DC fan, doesn't want to see, like, a party pooper. Yeah. There's been private conversations with House.

Oh, is that true? It hasn't been this optimistic. I acknowledge. Well, the problem is Tunsell. Like, what a punch in the cock. How about this? Tunsell. Yeah.

What skill guys do you like on the, on the commanders? It's like, Taylor McClorn. Is he the 30th best receiver in the league? You didn't mind Diggs. They have that, what is he from Arkansas? You got Antonio Williams.

God bless Diggs. Yeah, Antonio Williams is good. God bless Diggs. Diggs played 35 plays a game. He's a possession receiver. They didn't have one of those last year. He was disappeared in the playoffs. I mean, in the Super Bowl,

they're running back goes by Bill. And the tight end coach is West Walker. You should be in on this team. I'm out. It's a great point. It's a hard out from me. It's a hard end from Tennessee. Who did you have for this?

Huh? How'd you have for the over for this for your own team? I can't remember what we said on the NFC East show. Eight is a super hard number to get to because this schedule is just a punch in in the dick. You can't remember if you have over or under? Do you want some more coffee? It's on the,

it's on the Rear Wise guy show. I bet I did the over and said eight wins. David Blow, the new offensive coordinator. You remember betting him on Thames? Yeah, we want some money on Blas. All right. I don't see it at all. The other thing I don't like is near the end of the season,

they have at Vikings, at Jaguars, and then the Cowboys. And I just think, unless the Cowboys are like the one seat, like that game's going to actually mean something for the Cowboys. So four of their last five are Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Dallas. They have a stretch week eight, week nine, week ten.

Home Eagles on the Sunday night. Home Rams the next week. And then at Giants on a Thursday night game. That's three in a row. And that's like, that's the one where. It's funny because I look at that 10 to 13 stretch, Giants, Sincerex, Arizona, Tennessee. Like if they're anywhere near four wins at that point, they're an over. Under for you overlock for me.

So I've done two locks. No, other way. You went on, you're under. I'm under, you're over. That's what I said. Yeah, that's what you said. Second mistake of the podcast. It's been a face for 20.

It's Netflix, you know. Chappelle makes mistakes all the time. Netflix is like, what's going on? Where's the true crime stuff? One of these guys going to try to kill each other? Last one, the Giants. The over under is seven and a half. Pretty even juice on that.

Plus 550 for division. They were 4 and 13 last year. They are plus 265 to make the playoffs. Plus 290 for 10 plus wins. I'd probably recommend that. Under 5.5 plus 250. Worst record 20 to 1. First, what if for me?

What if Jackson Dart plays eight games or less? Yeah. Well, guess what? He's going to play eight games or less. So what's your pick, knowing that Jackson Dart will not make it to 10 games this season? Yeah, I mean, he gets heard every other game. How would we analyze two? it like three years ago.

It's like, well, he's not going to make it or, right? And then we were right. He didn't make it. This will be the same thing. Yeah. And I don't know, man, maybe you should pass me on this. I should pass because I just, I just hate this team so much. But I'm going to go on there.

I just don't think they have offensive players who played defensive football. Like Scadabo took out like secondary guys yesterday. It's like, hey, this is a no contact thing. And Dart can't stay on the field. He's going to the tent. He's complaining that they're sending him a tent. like he's been to the 10, 43% of his games. Like, guess what?

The league is not going to go under because of Jackson Dart. You have two concussions already. They're going to send you to the tent. Neighbors at least plays like an offensive player and he can't stay on the field. Give me an over under for those three core offensive players playing together. I'd start and a half. Yeah. All playing a start to finish game.

Together. Yeah. Five and a half? Oh, man. I'd go under. Yeah. Go under on four and a half? Yeah.

I think it's like three, three and a half. is what I would say. I don't know. I don't know. And everybody, there's a lot of pressure on us. We lose our media, sports media card. If we don't take a fourth place team to win the division, I don't think this is it at all.

As you know, I love nothing more than that. Yeah. It's, and it's been really reliable over the years. And every year there's been pretty, pretty reliable picks for that. Last year was a little tougher, but the Patriots were a great example. It was like, they added Vrabel. They spent some money. They finally had a good draft.

It was just the easiest schedule possible. You could see that coming and the odds kind of reflected it. Right. I just don't think there's necessarily the team this year. You're like, you're really jamming and forcing it. I wanted it to be the Giants in like April because they blew chippers on defense. They, you know, they had two picks in the top 12 and some money to spend. But we didn't talk about the biggest reason I don't think it's going to happen.

I just, I'm not, I'm out on John Horriba. Not Harbaugh. Yeah. And I think it's going to. tie into what I do in the AFC too. I think he ran his course there. I'm not even sure he was good to begin with. And I don't think this is like

Mike Vrable going to the Pats or Jim Harbaugh going to the Chargers. I don't think he's going to have an impact like that. And if anything, I think this season might expose maybe he wasn't as good as we thought because of what's happening with the Ravens and then the Giants. They were bad in one score games last year, right?

That famously the Russell Wilson one, they blew to the Cowboys, went to overtime and everything. And then John Harbaugh is going to fix that. No one blows 10-point leads like he does in the fourth quarter, right? So that's what's going to be the fix. We talked about this on the fantasy pod too. It's a classic Ask the Teams fans what their opinion is. Yeah, yeah.

And, you know, like I watch every Red Sox game. Literally since the NBA draft, I think I've seen 95% in the season. And like we have a shortstop Monasterio who's like a feel-good story. He's terrible defense. And if you watch it day to day, so like there was a game, a national game like two weeks ago, and Tom Verducci was the announcer. And he's the national announcer. He doesn't know, but he's like, in Monasterio's been really good defensively. On my Red Sox story, we're like, oh, my God. That's the worst of the year. Right.

But you know, the fans know. He's not watching. And if you talk to any Ravens fan, they were completely out on Harbaugh. They just thought he was bad. Yeah, the Cadery and the coal mine there is how bad he's been on fourth down decisions and has been going on for a while. He's in the bottom quarter of the league. And he's been overly unnecessarily conservative. And now he's paired with Matt Nagy.

Right. We didn't talk about that. Matt Nagy. But, you know, if you go backwards, he's probably getting fired that year when he threw Lamar and Lamar saved his job and gave him the second run. But I've always felt like he was a little overrated. I thought his last couple years,

I just don't feel like he got enough shit for everything. And it really seemed like some of the players were out. on him too. So, yeah, this is a, you know what? Big under for me. Lock me in for this. You lock it in. Nice.

Yeah, I don't want to fall too far behind with the locks. The other thing is no one gave up more big plays than the Giants, 124 big plays. And Dexter Lawrence's productivity tiled off a little. He had like five sacks, I think, last year. It's because he was double-teamed more than anybody else. Yeah. They're giving up big plays, and the guy who was double-teemed all year is gone now. So that's it.

So that's what's going to happen. Toughest road slate in the league. Rams, commanders, Texans, Eagles, Colts, Seahawks, Lions, Cowboys. That's another reason. The schedule is brutal. Rough. Five and 12. And then they end the season at Cowboys' Home Eagles.

And I think both of those teams are going to have something to play for too. Yeah. And then the other question, we haven't talked about this yet, but it didn't apply to Washington. But as these teams get into December, if they're out of it, how do they start handling that? We don't really have tanking in the NFL, but I feel like we're going to have a form of it this year. Well, we saw it with Jackson Dart, right, when they were out of it. Like, well, we're going to keep them out of these meaningless games. So, yeah,

that's the closest you'll get to that. Or maybe you decide Jackson Dart's not sustainable as the starting QB. We got to maybe think of another one. Okay, so for the division, you have... I have two nine-win teams and the Cowboys and Eagles, and Cowboys have better plus number to win the

division. So that's my team at 9 and 8. To take it. I have both the Cowboys and Eagles going 11 and 6. So I'm going to have to recommend the division for the Cowboys. I'm leaning that way for the plus 175. Good for you. Don't get mad at me, please.

I have Cowboys over 9 and a half lock. And I have Washington under 7.5 lock. You have giants under 5.5 or 6.5. What do we go? No, it's bigger. 7 and a half. Yeah. That's a lock for you.

Yeah, I'm doing a plus adjustment. House. Yeah. We're giving you 90 seconds for each division go. I am super bullish on the Philadelphia Eagles this upcoming season. It hurt me in my heart because I have too many Eagles fans in my life, and I really detest it. But the way this division is shaking out, the step backwards.

Washington was poised to make a big jump forward after last season and these injuries that we're seeing an offensive line, and especially tonsils, just such a gut wrench, gut punch. Bummer. It's a gut wrench, gut punch. Wow. The rins are going to suck. The Giants are going to suck, suck.

This is it for Harbaugh. This could be like a P. Carroll, Vegas, like, leaning more that way, where it's like, oh, they got P. Carroll, credibility. I love that. I love that. Yeah. And Dallas is going to be better. I have them in exactly nine wins because of the question marks with whether or not that

defense really will translate. But it's an Eagles division. I'm on Eagles overs and all the rest of it. Okay. I guess I have to stick with Dallas for the division. Yeah. I do think the Eagles. are going to be really good.

Okay. That was the NFC East. We're in good pace, 35 minutes. We're going to take a break. We talked about Farrow and other things. We're going to take a break. We're going to come back and we're going to do the NFC Nord.

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Man, I missed it. Kickoffs coming. Yeah, we're getting close. We're within a month. With NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube TV, you get every game, every Sunday, all in one place. And it's magnificent. And there's no other way to follow the NFL season. And I'm so mad I didn't get YouTube TV until a couple years ago because it's the best.

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has gonorrhea for sure just for being next to did he give her that cold sore well we took a smoke break for don and don't still just he just continued to smoke I think how we're staring at me. NFC North. Hardest division of the eight, right? It's tough. You could really make a case for, there's people making cases for the Vikings.

There's a lot of people making case for the Vikings. We're going to start with the Detroit Lions, though. A sexy summer team. People really excited for them. They're over under, shocking, 10.5. I thought it was going to be 9.5. I don't, did it start a 9.5 for now? Yeah, it was for a little while.

Bumped up. Divisions. plus 160, Super Bowl 8 to 1, playoffs minus 205. 13 plus wins plus 270. You're better off doing best record of plus 8.50. Under eight and a half wins is three to one. There's a couple of these that hit every year. And if you had the Chiefs last year and you had them under even eight wins,

that was like plus 400. In November that, right? Yeah. I have two what ifs for you and you pick which one you want to answer. What if this is the Jamir Gibbs, holy shit. 2006 Tomlinson season. What if this is the Dan Campbell farewell season? You can go either way.

Pick one. Interesting. I think this is the do or die for the Dan Campbell kneecap biting experiment. I really do. We talked about like three teams in the NFC. I think this has to be due. I know the injury luck. This is completely opposite of what we're going to talk about with the bears.

Because they were like 31 in injury luck. 32 or 32 in fumble luck. It's all that crazy stuff. And they have, I'll take both at once because Gibbs should be better dropping Montgomery, right? So it should get a lot of those goal line carries.

Good for you if you have the number one fantasy pick. But it's going to be a reversal fortune. Can they not be the number two injured team in the league? Like, it doesn't, that's what we have to get past. It already started up bad because they lost Arnold

than they have a shaky secondary to begin with, which is the big fly. New offensive coordinator and hopefully better health. In my roster rankings, I had them in the 30s of 31. Their offense is fucking loaded. 31. 31 points. A lot of points.

Okay. One of the 5.30 points. Goff, 5. Gibbs. 3 could be a 4. St. Brown 4. James and Williams was like an 1100-yard receiver last year. The Porta, hopefully, healthy. Their O line is above average, two points for that.

And then defense, Hutchinson, Campbell, Joseph and Branch. And the rub against them is, well, Joseph and Branch are going to be hurt to start the season. Then you look at the schedule, Saints Week 1, at Bills, Jets, at Panthers, at Cardinals, buy. Only one of those teams are going to be able to throw on them, which is the Bills. I think if they get out of that four and one, that over becomes more realistic. I like the bounce back. you talked about this on the NFC North Pod. They're underdogs

in three games. Yeah. Against the spread. They get to play the AFC East and the NFC South. The AFC East, Dolphins Jets, NFC, South really probably three bad to almost bad teams. I'm a slight over. I'm 11 and 6.

Okay. And I know it's popular. I know it's a sexy pick, but I think the schedule they get to play Chuck, Gino, Bryce, Bissette, Willis, Panics or Tua, Cam Ward, who's been a disaster in the preseason, Kyla Murray, Jackson Dart, or wherever his backup is.

Wow, when you put it that way, it's interesting. I mean, because I think they're going to be a good team, but it's going to win 10 games, which puts them under, right? 10 and 7 for me. It's a tough one. The only thing I disagree with you saying is like an above average offensive line. They couldn't protect golf. They were like 31st.

They had injuries. They had injuries. It's a little better this year. And they're still, they're moving Penny Sewell to the left side. Miller, their first round picks are going to be on the right. side. They've at least spent money and assets trying to fix it. And last year they couldn't.

Exactly. So they could get off to a strong start. You said it, Jets, Carolina, Arizona, New Orleans, and four of the first five. We could be looking at like a five and O Lions team and then saying, oh, my God, why didn't we dump more? The problem is they always lose one of those dumb ass games, like on the road. They'll have like 17 points with four minutes left against, like, Carolina. It's like, what the hell is going on here?

I have Gibbs two plus touchdowns in this game, and it's not even close. One of the reasons I really like the over, because I do think they'll go four in one or five and oh, whatever. So now that becomes easier. If I have to get to 11 wins, now I only need seven. Three months to do it. You can also really zag against this at the end of the year because week, 17, week 18 is Bears Packers, both road games. So if they're 10 and 5 or 9 and 6, I feel like you can get out of that or you can hedge those games. Right.

But I just think they're going to be good. I think they have too much talent. And whether or not this is kind of the make or break Dan Campbell season, I think they have one more in them. Usually these windows are four, right? They had two years ago, it's like they're big. They almost made it. But this feels like a four-year window to me.

And Gibbs is spectacular. I mean, the skill positions, when you compare them, so the other teams we talked about, like they have a top five wide receiver. They probably have the best. best running back. Right. They have one of the four best tight ends.

And they have a quarterback who every year throws for 4,500 yards. Protect golf and they should be fine. And I think too much is made of, oh, Ben Johnson left and this offense can't do it. Well, they were plus 66 point differential for a fourth place team. That's insanity. And they beat Ben Johnson twice. Right. So they'll be okay.

Are you pro or? I'm very pro on Detroit. They went nine and eight last season. With all of that injury, bad injury luck. And they had a top 10-ish difficulty in terms of schedule. This schedule is the thing that sets it up for me. You mentioned the division that could, if they can go three and three in their own division, you can go through that schedule and find the eight wins to get you to 11.

So it's a good over for me. A lot of indoor games too. Miami's their outdoor game until like the Bears in January. Like that's their only outdoor games. I would have locked it, but I do wonder with the injury juju with them makes me, makes me nervous. It just seems like they've had bad luck now for a couple years here. Packers over nine and a half division plus 260. Super Bowl 22 to 1. Playoffs about as even as we get here, they're minus 16 to make it,

minus 102 not to make it, 12 plus wins plus 270. Under 7-5 wins is plus 260. There's a couple of these, a couple of the old unders for this division. If you figure all four of these teams can't be good, who's going to have like the year from hell or whatever. this is a 7-10 win candidate. They were 9-7-1 last year. Little fluky because they knew they were in the playoffs with two games to go. Yeah. My would have for them is they lost their last five games last year post-Parsons injury, right?

Right. He's not coming back to week nine. What if that's just who they are, a 500 team? Yeah. I think there could be 500 until he gets. I mean, I like this team a lot, a lot more. Really? I'm so interested.

And we kill the floor. And he's killed us on three-team teasers and parleyes and everything. He's like, I've killed you too. Yeah, we've killed you. I feel like to blow those Bears games, that second one, that was like England, Argentina. Like, they just played on their heels. Like, that's perplexing if you go back and watch that game. You have the conversation with Mina.

Jordan Love, I think, a lot better. Not just statistically when you look. And I feel like they had seven of the same receivers and they got like five of them. It became too confusing between the wicks and the Dobbs and Now, so they settled on Jaden Reed and Justin Watson. And those guys, of course, have to stay healthy. But I think that's the best of the bunch. Tucker Kraft.

So you think they weeded out. Yeah, I think he just got too distracting. Like, I don't even know what the robs is. It had seven swing men. Oh, here we go. Christian Watson. Christian Watson. What did I say?

Justin? Justin? No, you're good. That's right. Thank you. I appreciate it. I did know that. Yeah.

I know. Yeah. So you think they picked the best three because I would argue Dobbs is the most reliable of all the guys that. I just don't trust Christian Watson. You know why? Because they've had him in fantasy and so have you. Right. And guess what?

The red flag is next to him by week three, or he's out or he's coming back. The challenge flags? Every flag. Every flag's next to him. Listen, when the ball's in the air and he gets separation, there's probably no one better, right? I mean, Tyreek Hill's gone. So Christian Watson, I got that right, right? Is the one, I don't know.

They might not even be the best, too. I just think it got cluttered with having like five different options. and now he could he could zone in. So they're only down to Watson, Reed, and Golden, who I had last year on both fantasy teams, so they never, ever threw to. Gannon's the D.C., which I liked. Lefleur every year is a top 10 offense,

so that's a positive. I really went back and forth on this, and Tucker Kraft, I love, I assume he'll be 100%. I did like a better and worse in my notes for how I thought the team was better than last year I thought was worse. the worst, like, really made me lean under. They lost the obbs, who I thought made big catches for them.

Their offensive line and their defensive line in both trenches, they really lost, like they're but now below average on both sides. That's just a fact. Parsons probably not back to a week, eight, week nine range, maybe even for your Dallas game. Not only are, they only have three receivers left. It's a position they've spent a lot of assets on over the years. Yeah.

Like, I think Watson was a first-round pick. Golden definitely was. But just in general, they're always over and over again, spending stuff. They only have three left. It's okay to have three receivers. No, I know, but I just feel like they've spent a lot of assets on it, not to mention the Parsons trade,

which left them without a first-round pick. Lefleur, even though they gave him a contract, I still feel like he's in limbo. Jacobs got in trouble, had a thing in the off-season, not great. their special teams always sucks. I had them at 22 points for their roster, which usually throws me toward the playoffs, but I couldn't get there.

I'm under. I'm 9 and 8. I think they're 9 and 7-1 last year. I think they're 9 and 8. There's a team I like more in this division than them. Okay. And I did not want to have three playoff teams, so they were the loser, 9 and 8.

But I don't feel great about it. I have them at 11.6. I think the Jacobs thing is... That feels like a lot. Jacobs is troubling, for sure. He's going to miss time. But Marshaun Lynch, is not a bad Marshawn Lloyd before you jump in there.

And Marchion Lynch. Forget it. No, he's not going to do anything. He's decent replacement. They have Zaire Franklin who had over 640 tackles in four years. Dubundo said he couldn't cover, like literally anybody in the NFL. It's okay. The numbers are there for tackles.

The other thing is the NFL has a way of course correcting here. So they know Parsons are going to be out two months, a month and a half, whatever it is. Three out of first four, Falcons, Jets, and Vikings. So we could have a similar situation to the Lions where this team is four and one. They don't have to do a lot.

You know, and he was concussed down the stretch there. When they were like nine, four, and one, he was concussed like the last three weeks, Jordan Lobb. I think there's a real O and two chance for this team. Really? At Vikings week one, at Jets week two, followed by O and two, complete panic. Should we fire the floor?

Well, I'll go back to hating them if that's the case because I'll have them to win both those games. It's weird. This Vikings game in week one at Minnesota, I feel like, is going to determine the over-under. They win that. I think they get to 10. If they don't win that. I'm dying to know who your team is and there's only two left in the division. There's more.

They added more. That's Goodell. He's always up to something. So you're over. 11 wins for them, huh? 11 and 6. A favorite in 13 games. You've had a complicated Packers relationship.

What do you mean? There's been years where you've like really loved them. Oh, yeah. We bet on them in the Super Bowl last year. Yeah. Yeah. During the season, they came out. The way they started off the season on both sides of the ball, they were incredible.

They were definitely, I got some money down after they kicked Washington's ass in week two on Thursday night. They humiliated Washington. They were incredible on both sides of the ball. But the way the season ended, I feel like there's a hangover. You lose a playoff game the way that they did. When you manufacture a goddamn playoff loss the way that they did, you don't, you don't, We don't, we don't thought they were firing the coach after that. They should have.

They should have. Can I give you one of my favorite theories? Sure. Social media clip waiting to happen. Can't wait for Eduardo. Put this thing on, Eduardo. Sports City cluster theory. What the hell is?

I mean, walk you into October. The Packers are one and three, and everybody's panicking with the Bears game coming on, October 11th. That feels make a break for them. buck season about to start. Everybody's like, what the fuck did we get this, Yonis trade? This is terrible.

Brewers, after a great season, just getting bounced. Oh, no. They didn't even make it to October. So they're like, oh, my God, our brewer season's already over. And now Packers must have been game. And it's just like all colliding.

And maybe there's just a blizzard that day in October for the first time ever in Wisconsin. My old call Drew Bates, Chip Kane, just sending me long, incoherent text about how bad it is. But I just, I just, I think all this stuff might be interesting. It might be together. Badgers 2 and 7.

All right. Badger, yeah, the badgers are going bad. All right. I like them. I don't know what to say. Okay. Chicago Bears over nine and a half is the over under. Heavy juice on the over plus 115 on Fandual.

Division plus 340, Super Bowl 31, playoffs, dead even basically plus 116 for the playoffs. 12 plus ones plus 360. Under 7a plus 210, there were 11 and 6 last year. People are just spooging regression all over this team. Regression, regression, regression, regression, regression.

That's it. Nobody can talk about the bears rationally because... That's your impression to me. The regression. 45 seconds. It's just regression, regression, regression. Regression.

Here's another stat. Here's another stat. They did this. They did this. Counter. Go ahead. I'm all in on Ben Johnson. I think he's 10 wins.

Every year I don't care what's going on with this team. And I look at it this way. So they go 11 and 6 last year, make the playoffs, have a couple miraculous Caleb moments. They shouldn't have been a playoff team last year, right? If they had just gone 8 and 9 or 7 and 10 but had a couple upsets and really showed like signs and it was like, oh, this year, here come the bears. Watch out for these guys.

And instead they threw everyone off the scent because they had, They won like three or four weird games. I think this was supposed to be the Bears year. I'm over. I think they go 10 and 7. And I'm a fan. They didn't have a couple of comeback wins. They had six wins in the last two minutes where they were trailing.

That should mean something, though. It does. It does. I don't want to get on quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Bo Nix, who came from behind and won. That's a clutch gene that you should be very happy. everyone in the Indiana area should be very happy that their team had, I'm sorry, Chicago area

that has the Bears to win. Caleb Williams almost 4,000 yards, which is unheard of for any Bears quarterback. House thinks he's going to go over this year, right? Listen to the Writers guys, that's one of his big but that is regression like no under. Plus 22

turnover margin. Like that's, if you look at Warren Sharp, how he outlines us, no one who wins the turnover margin at the top is anywhere close. in the second year. Add to it, they weren't really great in the non-turnover drives. So Caleb Williams,

this is nice. I appreciate his stretch routine. He doesn't get his black fingernails. Really, that doesn't affect them at all when he's stretching. By the way, Antonio Brown had some choice words for him today.

That was tough. That was tough. Set it down, Antonio. You usually holds himself there. I don't know. I got over an eight and a half, but under nine and a half for the bears. I have him at nine and eight.

Nine and eight. Yeah. So I have Chicago in this division, and you have Green Bay. Green Bay is basically where we differed. I just think that last year was year one, Ben Johnson. I feel the same way about Vrable. Now you have the staff, you bring it over. Everybody's kind of learned the habits from last year.

I think they have a lot of skill position talent, right? My big fear, if you're going to pick them apart, I mean, the regression rate, obviously. is a nightmare. But the left tackle, they have the worst left tackle in the week. Right. The defense is a little sketchy, but I do think they can win some shootouts. I had their roster at 24 points. I think Johnson's a top

five QB. They had that net rest rank. They're number one. They're plus 15. It's the second highest for any team since 1990. Courtney, you're here, Warren Sharp. Who told us that Shadur Sanders' 15-minute sideline interview was basically Frost Nixon.

Listen, we steal enough of the stats. We should go out. No, we love one short. At Vikings week 18. Yeah. It's interesting. They go Packers Christmas, but that's home. Yeah. Lions home at Vikings week 18. And that's probably going to decide this. That's a lot. I'm, I'm zagging the other way against all of the regression crap. And I think the bears are going to be, I think their offense is going to be top seven, top eight. Wow. I think they have an awesome coach. And I, I, I,

I'm just not betting against Ben Johnson. DJ Moore might have been, I mean, yeah. They could, they drove, that would, DJ Moore was a drive-in to the airport. The entire fan base was ready to drive him to the airport. And I loved, love, love, I thought Loveland came on. Kraft looked at Gromkin in the first eight games of the year, first four or whatever. And then Lovelin down the stretch, he looked like he was the best tight end in the league. I just think they have a lot of weapons.

The dude's guy, I think people a little bit too in love with Luther Burden, who's like going to start out questionable. Yeah. I just, you know, first place schedule now, six toughest schedule. You mentioned some of their, you know, Christmas, Green Bay Thanksgiving, Detroit. To me, it's like, I really feel Ben Johnson's a good coach and he's going to, they're going to get better eventually. But he locked his door at the end of that season, like, oh, my God, that couldn't have gone better for me, especially with the things that I had nothing to do with. I mean, if they have 16 fumbles and lose only four of them, I get it.

I get it. It's a special kind of reaction. But I wonder now if we're too upset. obsessed with all of these things and it's and we're just turning it into baseball with like, oh, it's on base is 300 and that just means. Oh, listen. I am definitely. It's a pretty small sample size.

16 fumbles is not like 160. At Panthers week one, home Vikings week two. I think they're two and oh after that. And after that, I need to go eight and seven. I get 10 wins. They give the safety Kobe Bryant from Seattle a big deal. Tough, tough for Kobe. The secondary is a little.

This is four months. Yeah. The secondary worries me. But they might not play somebody who throws the ball on them until week seven. I'm not locking it in, but I just think it's going to be a little tougher. Last one's Minnesota. They're over as eight and a half plus four, 30 for the division. Super Bowl 41, playoffs plus 140.

If you want to get nuts and go for them for 11 plus wins plus 240, they were 9 and 8 last year. And it's just bizarre to me that people, it seems like more people, like the Vikings than the Bears. Yeah. I just think that's abjectly insane. I don't get it at all. I did my player rankings. They had one guy on defense who got points,

Van Ginkle, one. O'Connell gets points. Jefferson. The slightly above average offensive line, might give them two points there, but this all comes down to Kyla Murray and my what if for you is,

what if Kyle Murray kind of sucks? Why wouldn't he? Why the hell are you? The Card does paid him to go away. Yeah. And then it's like, Kyle Murray, who knows? It's like, I thought we went through this already.

He signed for $1.3 million. Half the ringer employees are making that. Here's the thing. Had no other offers. Even kind of sucky, Kyler Murray is better than what they had at quarterback last season. They had arguably the worst quarterback group.

Carson Wentz played professional football for his team. And Brasmer. Maxi Brosber was out there. In Michigan hero, JJ McCarthy. I know. That's the worst quarterback room. Okay. But if you put, you could analyze what metric you want in a quarterback.

And I think his EPA is like right in the middle, like 16th or something. That's the thing. He's like an advanced stat. It's like, it's better than you think. It's like, okay, so I guess I didn't watch any cardinal games by whole life. So he's right in the middle for a, that's fine. He doesn't run at all. You're definitely not getting the 2021 version.

Can't throw over the middle. Can't throw over the middle. He's not going to get the best out of Justin Jefferson if all the stats hold up. He's just a horrific fit for Justin Jefferson. Anything. Throw in the deep ball. Downfield is 10%. He's like 31st out of 33 qualified

quarterbacks in downfield. So what are you getting? You're getting a guy that hopefully won't hurt you, even though he did hurt the Cardinals many, many times we saw last year. Can I read you some stats? Remember the 2021 playoffs when they played the Rams? That was their only playoff game. I picked the Cardinals over the Rams,

and I think they lost like 44 to 10. Monday night game. And Kyla Murray completely fell apart. Since then, next season, three and eight as a starter. Year after that three and five. Year after that eight and nine. Year after that two and three, he's 16 and 26 in his last 42 games.

Like, we have this in basketball. I'm sure the advanced stats are favorable. This is fucking Zach Levine. This is Russell Westbrook in the 2020s. This is Bradley Beale on House's crappy Wizards teams. Like, I'm glad the advanced stats look good, but we all fucking watch the games, and this guy's not a winning quarterback.

And you can't tell me in this division that you're going to win. nine games of them. I don't believe it. I don't think their defense is good either. It's like Flores, Flores, Flores, is like, no, they don't have enough talent. Blitz heavy, Flores. They lose Hargrave. They lose Jonathan Allen.

Jonathan Greener gets traded. They're, you know, depending on this Caleb Banks, this defensive tackle, who has like foot issues and stuff. They have a rough stretch. I penciled in at Detroit, Buffalo, at Green Bay, at San Francisco. That's weeks 8 through 11. I don't think that guy. I think we're making Max Brasmer jokes around

Thanksgiving again. I honestly, it's weird because in basketball it's the opposite. People remember everything and hold everybody, every playoff game against everybody. And in football, we just get amnesia. Right. Like, we're just looking forward and trying to figure out stuff. And we just kind of forget what happened. Yeah.

Kyler Murray, the Cardinals, not only did not, they were paying him, what, 40 million a year, 50 million a year. And paid him to go away. Oh, yeah. And then it's like, oh, I don't know, KOC, quarterback whisper. He's the quarterback whisper? he just had J.J. McCarthy, who was a complete piece of crap last year. He was terrible. He says he's elite, J.J. McCarthy.

I don't know if we can go by that. You can't be the quarterback whisper if your last quarterback that you drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft completely bombed. Right. That means you're whispering, but nobody's listening to the words. Yeah. So I'm under. So you're way under. Is this a lock?

I'm under. I have them at seven. So that's under, what's this number, eight and a half? The number is 8.5. I am under. I'm happy to lock it down if you want me to, but I... I'm not going to force you. There's other stuff I like that.

Yeah, I don't like this team at all. Yeah. So we're both under. 9 and 8 last year feels like they're a game where it's the only reason I'm not a lock for this is what House said. Their quarterbacks were so bad last year that even if Murray can be just not a bottom 10 quarterback, it's impressive that they flound. They had to win what? Their last five to go nine and eight.

Like I still really don't understand how they did it. I mean, that Detroit game, they kicked Detroit to ask. Detroit needed that game to have any shot making the playoffs. So they play the NFC South along with everyone else in this division. And they play the AFC East. That helps all that. And that means they get dolphins jets. That means they get the three South teams.

That's kind of. maybe where you go with, like, how they could sneak to nine. It's just a great coaching performance. Yeah. Kyla Murray's history was always, Rahim talked about this on your NFC North Pod. Really good first two months of the season. Mm-hmm.

Falls apart. I just don't see it. I also don't think people even remember what Kyle Murray plays like. Right. Like, they think of him as a scrambling, exciting guy. That guy's been gone for four years. Yeah, that whole, that session of his life. I don't think so.

They're favored in eight games, so I think they go on. under that. It's a possible tank candidate, too. I wanted to throw that out there. The under six and a half is plus $2.90. But like, if it's just not going well in November, do you just, or do you throw McCarthy back in? Do you see what you have there?

Well, we saw it last year. They won their last five games. That's how they got to nine wins. They were a tank candidate last year. That's not in the DNA. He's a sneaky first coach fire to Kevin O'Connell. I totally agree. I don't put him top three, but he could, you know,

they get off to a slow start. that middle of the schedule is rough. Because he could do the whole thing of guys keep giving me these quarterbacks. Like, why don't we keep San Darnold? You fired the GM that made a lot of these decisions. Like maybe look in the fucking mirror. All right.

NFC North, you have 90 seconds house. Yeah, so this division, every team finished with a winning record last season. I think we're going to see the exact same thing this upcoming season. I'm slightly more bullish. You're going nine plus wins on every? Yeah.

Yeah. I wonder if we get Fandold to do that a parley. Every team the NFC North will win nine games. I'm slightly more positive on Minnesota than you guys are. The fact is what we've been talking about. There's a floor to the number of wins out of

this division because of who they play. Every team should have sort of built in six wins. So when you talk about Minnesota, six wins because they get the dolphins and they get the Jets and they get the NFC South. And then a team like Minnesota, they have Washington on their schedule towards the end of the season.

Like, you can go through and find six wins for every one. And then you're pushing up. So if you're starting from a six win floor, getting to nine wins is not that difficult. And we have good positive cases for all of these teams in terms of the skill, even if, you know, that bears defense take a step back

and this Vikings defense isn't going to be as good. I still think that we're going to get to nine for every one of the teams. Wow. I think this is my number one pick for a division that will have a tie that will fuck with all of this. Oh, yeah.

Well, they have one last year. Where the Vikings go like 8, 8 and 1. But they also knocked down the Packers, and the Packers are 9, 7, and 1. Yeah. But yeah, I'm predicting the thing. All right, so your division winner is who? Green Bay Packers, 11 and 6.

Wow. I'm really surprised by this. Yeah. I have the Lions at 11 and 6. So you think the Packers, where were the odds on that? That is plus 260. you like for that.

I have the Lions at plus 160. I can't remember division in a while that had the favorite was plus 160. What I mean? It's pretty high. Like those are the, that's the best odds plus 160 out of 14? You can't remember. You were Patriots that are forever.

The bills even before the Patriots got. Usually at least somebody is like minus 110 or plus. Oh, I see. Yeah. You know what I mean? Plus. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We're all between like plus 160 and three to one. Okay. That's it for the NFC.

North. Quite a division. I think the most action-packed, most arguments. I think it's the most fun to do the place finishes. You can go in any direction. I would probably go Lions, Bears, Packers, Vikes would be my four. I would let you pick

four division orders. I'll book them all. Because I think it's that hard. Make it all you can eat buffet. There you go. Okay. All right. NFC South. the bane of our existence, just has brought us,

whatever the opposite of joy is, unhappiness, despair, disbelief, year after year, and on pace again, we talked about how you could go over nine on all four NFC North teams. You could go under nine

on all four of the NFC South teams and talk yourself into it. First one is Tampa over eight and a half, plus 175 for the division, plus 140 for the playoffs. 10 plus wins is plus 175 as well. 11 plus wins plus 340. Keep that in your back pocket.

They were 8 and 9 last year in a year where I would argue most things went wrong. Baker Mayfield had seven injuries. They lost their left tackle. Wide receiver injuries across the board. Mike Evans got hurt at the worst possible time, came back. It was just a mess. Defense was weird. Weird season.

felt like Bowles was going to get fired, they really collapsed. Didn't fire Bulls. What if they fired Todd Bowles eight months ago, would you feel better about this team? Wow. Well, can I backtrack a little? Yeah, because I have a little NFC South preamble here.

Okay. And I'm going to blow my wad on the whole division. First of all, it's despicable. And I hate it. And I hate that we have to do futures for it because I don't want to have a bet on. Case in point last year, Buck should have won a division.

I don't know how they did. Carolina, into a division title losing week 18 somehow and getting to eight and nine. And then Rahim bragged about it how he had Carolina. But meanwhile, he had 19 other bets over the course of the year. Doing laps to this Carolina went ridiculous. This NFC South is, they should call it the NFC DMV because it's, it is the DMV. It's visiting the DMV watching these games.

It's tedious. What does that do for your DMV house? The different DMV. Okay. Oh, yeah, no, yeah. The one that way you have to wait in line. tedious, inefficient, it stinks like piss. This is the NFC, DMV,

and why do we have to knock ourselves out trying to pick a winner? When they don't even want to win outside of the division, they win 35% of their games over the last five years. I saw that. It's by far the worst, right? The three of us have to pick a team to friggin win eight or nine or, God forbid, 10 games.

I have all four teams at seven and ten. And God bless me, I figured out a way, and it wasn't that hard to do. I did it game by game by game. So let's talk. I mean, there is many, many reasons to not give any of these teams more than seven wins or less than five.

So you want to stop with Tampa Bay? Yeah, let's start with Tampa. All right. I think they're, first of all, maybe I'm a little harsh on them because they did win the division four years in a row before this. And Bakerhead,

you talked about that as injuries, bicep shoulder, oblique. This is why they won't give him the extension. We were talking about it for MPP on our Sunday night pods for three weeks in a row. And then by the end of the year, he was body parts for falling off. I loved it. People kept them out of their top 12, like quarterback rankings.

I said, this is despicable. What are we doing? They have a new OC in Zach Robinson. That's a fifth OC in his many years. Like you said, they lose Mike Evans. I think it's a little better with Kenneth Gainwell, right? Bucky Urban missed some time. I still like that offense that Ruben Baines a stud from Miami's a little banged up to start the year.

They get Vita Vaya who threatened to hold out. their favorite in nine games, but I still give them seven wins. Like they were 0 and 6 against the AFC North under Todd Bulls. You didn't mention they lost Mike Evans. And Mike Evans, yeah. So that's...

I don't love the cornerbacks on this team, and I'm not a Todd Bulls guy. But Gainwell, I thought, was awesome last year for the Steelers. Their front seven, they nailed the draft. I think they... If I gave points in my player rankings for drafts,

Bain is like... That was a miracle he fell to them. Their front seven is going to be really good. Like it's going to be get after the passer, kind of dangerous good. And this Ted Hurst they took, is a receiver in the draft who seems like he's actually going to play. And I like their receivers before that.

I like Ted Johnson. I thought he had some moments last year. Like Bucca, who got hurt halfway through the year. But I think they have firepower all over the place. I had their offensive line for six points. I had them as a top three offensive line. So they have that. the running game with Irving and Gainwell together.

There's guys I like on the defense. I had four guys on the defense with them. The problem is they play some good QBs. Lamar, Burrow, Caleb, Love, Gough, Dax, Stafford, Herbert. They also play some horrible QBs. Two Atlanta games, Bresset, a Cleveland game, Aaron Rogers, Bryce Young twice,

Shuck twice. I'm all in. Really? Not only do I have them over. over eight and a half. Don't be all in on any of these teams. Kidding me? Over eight and a half.

I'm making it a lock. Wow. I think they can go 11 and 6. I have them 11 plus wins is plus 340. I think this team is actually going to be good. I'm in on the bucks. I think they nailed their draft and I think they're going to be healthy

and they're in a shitty division. You are a glutton. I know. A glutton for punishment. I broke the news to house this morning. And guess what? started debating bets. We started going through it.

They're the best team in the division, but it doesn't mean they have to win any more than seven games because they're the toughest three-hour watch in all of football. They're four and 12 in primetime games. I think they're one under bowls. They're one and nine since Baker got there.

It's despicable. The red zone defense. The red zone defense is just awful. Anyone gets to the 10. Just don't even run another play. You're in. I don't know. I think their front seven is going to be good.

I think they're going to be good. also here's another thing this is how much thought I've put it in Tampa so at Bengals week one we'll talk about Bengals in AFC but you can probably guess I'm zagging on them next three games all at home

in September Browns Vikings Packers let me walk you through your memories of what happens in Florida in September it's fucking hot this is like Lombardi I always used to talk about this these games in Carolina or Tampa in the first three or four weeks of the season

where it's like 95 degrees on a Sunday or it's 80 with like a ton of humidity. The Browns, they get the last of Sean Watson game ever. That's a win. Kyler Murray the next week and then the Packers. I actually think they could be four and oh heading into week five against your Cowboys on Thursday night.

Talk to me about December. That's when they lose their games. That's fine. That's when they blow all their games. That's cool. Well, they do. And we're going to talk about the Falcons in a second. and I think the Falcons are going to be bad.

So that's two wins there. But I'm in. I really like this Tampa team. They bit me hard last year. I get it. What was that Thursday night against Atlanta? If you could give yourself amnesia for last year, yeah.

I feel like you'd feel better about Tampa. They're the best team. They have the best roster. They definitely are better than they were last year. Yeah, sure. So the question for me is Baker, is he just the guy who gets hurt every year? Yeah.

He's had a lot of injuries. He's been banged up a few different times. Who is it back up? Jake Browning. Yeah. I'm looking at the Kansas quarterback. Jaylen Daniels is funny. They have Worf's back.

Everybody glosses over that. Like we just made a big deal about Tunsell and Washington. Worf's one of the best left tacklers in the league. They didn't have them last year. That's true. Saints over 7.5 plus 270 for the division. Plus 198 if you like them for the playoffs. Under 5.5 wins plus 250.

There was 6 and 11 last year. What if they played Shuck all last season? Do they win the division? we all love sure yeah well were they six and eleven you said last year

yeah yeah could they go eight and nine to win the division yes I think that's the answer I was going to pencil them in for eight wins but then I thought

seven and ten for everyone is funnier and also not great off season right we got you know Camara's banged up Olave already

well they paid they paid for ETN right at the end I don't know if he's a 48 million dollar running back but he was 10th in our league

in fantasy points last year Yeah. Jordan Tyson, that's not good. The wide receiver for Arizona State. He did that pick. No good. Yeah. It's so funny when they take these receivers who couldn't stay healthy in college.

And they take them eight, the Saints did in this case. But these guys are top 10 picks. And the draft guys are like, if he could stay healthy. It's like, well, we have a whole track record. He can't. Then he gets to the training camp. Guess what? He gets hurt.

Right. Right. Was anyone shocked to see that Jordan Tyson is hurt? No. This guy, I think this can be a whole thing. He was fun to watch when he was on the field. Yeah. He had like two of those training camp things where I'm losing my voice.

He's getting emotional. I know. I'm really upset about Jordan Tyson. But he had like two training camp moments where he'd be like, oh, my God. Whoa, look at this guy. Got hurt. Right. I just want to say, because I have no other platform to do this other than probably this podcast,

I love Deshaun Vele. He was my favorite random receiver last year. I had him in fantasy. And he was like a god. And then he got hurt. But he was like, I just keep an eye on him. Ken Tyson or Lave stay healthy is a big question mark

with this team. My guess would be probably not. Brandon Staley is still the DC. They just, they have no blue chippers on D. It's basically Chase Young's resuscitated body and that's it. Yeah, I mean,

I had 10 sacks and 12 games last year. I just, the tradeoff was tough for me to reconcile is number three dead cap money, which doesn't, that's really tough to all. Versus number two, easiest schedule.

And they have nine home games instead of eight. Right. So nine in the Super Dome. Yeah. Falcons, who I think are going to stink, they play, so they're at Lions at Ravens first two, so they're going to be O-N-2. We've moved on to the Falcons?

No, no, this is the Saints. He's going through the schedule. Raiders Week 3. Falcons, Week 4 is... She'll let me know what he's doing at all times, right? I'm just giving me the Saints. No, I got you're good. Week 4 Falcons is the Hurricane Katrina anniversary game.

They're not losing that. Right. Vikings week five at Giants week six. That just feels like three and three, right? So at that point, the over and under is seven and a half. Can I go five and six the rest of the way? Yeah. But the Saints.

Shuck worries me because of, he just took huge hits last year. He's like a little Jackson Dardy-ish, less blue tent, but just completely fearless. I don't even know how they're. backup is. Yeah, I think it's, I'm wonderful if we're giving him too much credit because he went like 15 and 2 on teasers for us. But it's like 30th in the red zone.

He's rookie. You know, it's hard. I'm changing my pick. I had them as an over eight and a half. No, you can't change. No, I'm doing it. I'm doing unders. Really?

I have them at seven wins exactly seven and ten. So that's under. That's it. Seven and ten. I can't go eight. I just, seven and ten. She's probably going to get hurt.

It's the easiest thing to do. Everyone's at seven and ten. Crazy thing with the Saints. their home schedule is incredible. They only play one team with a win total forecasted to be better than eight and a half. They play, you know, Minnesota's sitting right there at eight and a half, and Green Bay is at nine and a half. They played two or Pennix twice.

Brissette, Deshaun or Sanders, Dart for his backup, Kyla Murray, Cousins or Mendoza, Rogers, and Bryce Young twice. Not bad. I'm changing my pickback. I'm going over. Oh, my God. Over eight. What the hell's going on here?

Back over. Yeah. Lord. I changed my pick back. If I tell you the backups, I tell you when the backups are, you might change again. Spencer Rattler, Zach Wilson. Spencer Rattler's still there. Go back on there now.

Can I pick the seven half exactly? What is, what are the hats for seven and a tie? You say there'll be a tie. It doesn't count. See, this is, but this is the thing. The end of the season when it's like we're doing the total. It's like, oh, my God. this Saints over.

I hate this. I almost might let you make the pick for me here. Are you over in them? How's your remember? We haven't done. We do it Monday. Well, do it now. Okay.

I'm under. I like them at seven and ten. Seven and ten. It's just too much open question with the defense. I'm not there. Defense is bad. One more thing, and I meant to give this to you before you're on with the fantasy fellas there.

Taysome Hill retired. Yeah. That's probably, That's a win. There it is. That'll be the extra win they don't get. Okay. But fantasy Hall of Famer?

Like really like... I think so. Incredible. Most added drop player ever, you think? More conversations about his eligibility than maybe every player. More fights. More fights. He swung weeks.

Yeah. There was playoff games that he felt like... Right. True fantasy Hall of favor. Yeah. All right. Atlanta Falcons, the over under seven and a half plus $2.90 for the division. under five and a half wins is plus 220.

Last year, there were eight and nine. My what if for you is, what if this is actually somehow a worse QB situation than Cleveland? Wow. What if this is our number one worst QB situation? Because here's the situation,

Tua, who got paid to go away by Miami because he literally can't play football anymore. Competing against Michael Panix on his third torn ACL, who hasn't even really started scrimaging until this week. And Tua couldn't win the job.

He was competing against nobody. It was like he was playing tennis against a big backboard and couldn't beat the backboard. I don't, House asked this today, why didn't they just keep cousins who they're paying anyway?

Why not just keep cousins instead of like, oh, we can get Tua for $1 million? Yeah, because he sucks. This is going to completely ruin them. I'll give you some Michael Pennock stats. Four and eight as a starter career. 12 TD6 I&T.

22 for 80 rushing might be the least athletic quarterback in the league and has a bad knee and they're dying for him to get back like Stefansky's like you're ready can you play crutches

that's it um Stefansky is basically the only thing that's good about what they did here's what's bad the QB situation they took Pearson Walker their two big first round picks

a year ago pass rushers we're going to have speed on the edge We're going to be a different Falcons team. Pierce was stupid. Dunn. Well, he's, Pierce is out for the year towards ACO. Walker got suspended through week eight. Those guys are gone.

They lost all the other guys that they had. They have the worst front seven in the league. They have no wide receiver pass Drake London. Their offensive line, which was always top five, is now no longer top 15. I think this team's a dumpster fire. This is, I have them going four and 13 this year. This is my biggest lock out of all the over-enders.

I had Falcons. I couldn't be, it's a fully erect under lock. Another one. Sorry, Farrow. I just can't believe how bad. Like, I can't believe it's seven and a half. I think it should be five and a half. Like, how do they have,

don't have the worst thing other than the Cardinals in the NFC? Because it's the NFC South. They can't put anybody that low because there, these are, there's wins all over the place. They could be the dumpster fire and still go three and three. in the division. I agree with you. Also, their schedule is weirdly hard. Here's who they play for quarterbacks.

Love, Lamar, Burrow, Caleb, Purdy, Mahomes, golf, Daniels, Baker twice. With a shitty defense, they're going to go to at Steelers Week 1. I'm betting the Steelers now. I'm just telling you. Home Panthers, at Packers, at Saints, home Ravens, home bears,

home 49ers, at Bucks. And they're playing the Bengals in Week 9 in Madrid. They might be 0-8. Interesting. It gets easier towards I think December. It's there. Cleveland, Washington, Tampa, New Orleans and Carolina. They have the division games and plus Cleveland in Washington.

Week 10 chiefs? They might be 0 and 10 heading into their by week. I think they're going to be awful. Look, this is tough for Stefansky, right? Two-time coach of the year. Morris is out. That's the other thing. It's like, oh, Stapansky. Stapansky was terrible last year.

We were complaining about him the whole year. The Browns blew these games last year. I don't think he was terrible. He was a classic. Are we sure he's good coach last year? I mean, his best win was when he was coaching from home with COVID. when they beat the Steelers in the playoffs. But he also has these, like, shiny toys on the top shelf

that I don't think either of the quarterbacks could reach with Bijon Robinson and even Kyle Pitts like broke out a little bit. Yeah. And obviously Drake London. So Kyle Pitts broke out a little bit just enough to get him a contract. That's right. That now he's going to go back to be Kyle Pitts. Yeah.

Has, can you name a single receiver other than Drake London on the Falcons? No, because I knew Darnall Mooney was on the team for a little while, but he plays for the Giants now. Yeah. It's like Dodson or something. right? And that Zacharias... Drake London,

just double-team him. Yeah. He probably doesn't even make it through the year. I just... Zachariah branches any Georgia receiver they like.

Also, here's another thing. Not only they're going to suck, week three, Thursday night football, week four, Monday night football saints, week five, Sunday night football,

Ravens. Why are they giving us the Falcons of Nankans? It's a lot. It's stupid. They can't consult anybody in this. Of all that, Bejohn,

Bejohn gave us, that's the most fascinating thing for fantasy. Where does Bejon go this upcoming season. He's not on my team. I agree. Not on my team.

You have number three tomorrow. You're not going to take Bejan? Is that right? I don't want anybody in the Falcons. All right. So you just have splines seven and ten? It's fine. Seven is under, right?

It's under seven and a half. So I'll go on. Wow. A violent violent. Johan Dotson is on this team. Olomede is a case. This is the fifth string wide receivers from Washington. They have all these days.

I've seen both of these guys. They did a nice thing. They drafted the brother, the Tarrell brothers or cornerbacks? This is fun. It's fun to watch. They're going to stink. I feel the strongest about this, about any NFC team. Last one, Carolina, over six and a half,

division plus 340. So if you think the NFC South is going to, everybody's going to suck again, might as well grab the plus 340 from Carolina. Plus 245 for the playoffs. Don't do that. Worst record is 15 to 1. Super Bowl is 80 to 1.

The what if for them, Sal, is what if they've had too many injuries already and this is shaping up as a bad juju season. They've already lost both tackles, who I think will come back, maybe October. They lost their third receiver. They lost Nick Sportin, who they paid money for. And it's just, this felt like the team when training camp starts, and it's like, uh-oh, this happened.

Uh-oh, this happened. They weren't good. It's fine. You could say it. They weren't good. They had a minus 69 point differential for a division winner. And by the way, what's their earth? Can you imagine they're a division winner, not many changes.

They're over under six and a half. It's because they were disgusting. There was seven and three in one score games. They have a third toughest strength of schedule this year. They don't know what to do with Bryce. They didn't even give him an extension or anything. They didn't. If anyone needed a 50-year guarantee to check out to see if he's good.

And I don't think that he is. He's 31st in EPA. What do you need to see? You know, I have them seven and ten, but I felt like they're as lucky as you could get as the team was. So I had them at 7 and 10 as well because I really like the Rams playoff game they played. I thought they had a couple games last year where they threw some punches. We watched that at Shakesy.

They threw some punches against good teams. We also, House and I sat next to Jalen Coker. Yeah. The Bob Cousa game. Love Jailen Coker. And he was talking about how he was really mad. He felt like they could have beaten the Rams. And he wasn't like saying it.

Like he was serious. Right. So I'm slight over for this. You talk about three, three, we have to watch them three primetime games too. Two on the road at Philly and Akrine Bank. I wrote about this once, back when my fingers worked like 20 years ago, the backhanded compliment scale for starting QBs from one to 10. 1.0 is shrugging helplessly.

I think that's Cleveland and maybe Atlanta this year. Right. 2.0 is, I mean, he's not a train wreck or anything. 3.0 is you could do worse. 4.0 is you could definitely do worse. 5.0 is, I'll tell he's not bad. 6.0 is, throws a good deep ball.

I will say that. 7.0 is say what you want about the guy, but he makes plays. Baker Mayfield. 8.0. It's not pretty, but he's pretty effective. Number 9.0 is you could make the playoffs with this guy. And 10.0 is, look,

if the Ravens can win a. Super Bowl with Trent Delford. Hit it, Paul. My question for you is, where is Bryce Young in this? Is he a you could do worse or is he you could definitely do worse? He's an 11.0. When the hell do we see Kenny Pickett? I would add one too.

You're at Shrugging Help Us Life for Bryce Young. Look, again, very lucky. Give him seven wins. Let him fight it out. Week 18 with everyone else. I know. I'm no fun with this division. I'm sorry.

But you're not going to convince me a better future on it. better and worse, year two of McMillan is probably the one better. They have five guys on their defense that got points for me. Brown, Phillips, Horan Jackson, and Morg.

They have a great punter, Blackshear. Pretty good special teams in general. Good for him. So that feels like they'll steal a winner too. I wouldn't do it as a lock, but I got a lock for them. I like their second round pick.

This guy, Lee Hunter, is from Texas Tech. They call him the fridge. I'm excited to see him. The fridge? The second fridge? It can't be the fridge. We had a fridge.

House hasn't eaten today. You just been wondering. I'm sorry, House. 90 seconds on the NFC. Shouldn't have done that. I would advise everyone if you like the way that these guys have been talking to get on the Fandall Sportsbook where you can play division exact order. If you believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to finish first and the Atlanta

Falcons are going to finish last, you just swap Carolina and New Orleans in the two three position. Both ways are better than 10 to 1 odds. That's a nice way to make some money. for America. Better than 10 to 1. Atlanta first, I mean,

Tampa first, Atlanta last, bet both ways, Carolina and New Orleans. I'm trying to help America here. I am sooner able to figure out the equation on the blackboard and goodwill hunting

than to fucking pick a one through four. But do it. You got to do it. No way. It's such a bummer because when I do the prep and there's like, I love the worst to first

as you talked about earlier. You can't force it. I tried to force it a couple times the last two pounds. I'm not doing that anymore. And then the, oh, this division sucks. I'll talk myself into a team that has the worst odds and he just can't. Least wins by division. Last year, the NFC East was 27 wins.

Yeah. That was the worst. 24, AFC South, 25 wins. 23 was NFC South, 27 wins. And then the AFC South and 22, 23 wins. So that's the lowest we've had. So you think 28 wins for this division? Yeah, 7 and 10s across the board.

I'll pick, you want my worst to first? I'll take New Orleans to win the division. That's fine. Okay. That's it. At 7 and 10. I have a hard, hard, hard lock on Tampa. And I think they win this easily to the point that week 17, 18,

they got week 17 Rams, week 18 saints, that might help the saints over. Right. If Tampa's just like, ah, we're the three seed. We're not doing anything. Okay. that's it for the NFC South. We made it, Sal.

We got through it. We did it. Never again. Next year. Hey, quick break for Fandle, our friends. Let's do it. NFL is so close to being back. Fandall has you covered all season long.

They have an NFL futures reward stack for the NFC. So, backstory. I tried to get our friend Christian. Happy birthday, Christian. Yeah. Yeah, this weekend. Yeah, the CEO. Great job.

We love him. He's been a great friend to the ringer. Love everybody at Fandul. We tried to get them to do like a Black Friday type thing for Friday. This is so smart. I wish I thought of this. We couldn't totally do it, but they're doing it anyway because they have an NFL futures reward stack. And it's for the NFC.

And you can do five profit boost tokens where you get a 50% PBT. So like, for instance. Speak English. You get a nice little discount on the... Yeah, basically. Like if you like my Tampa case for plus 170 or whatever they are to win the division, put that in on the fando with the PBT, they'll add 50% to it. Any of the stuff we've talked about so far, which will go through the locks at the end of the podcast. And they have player milestones.

They have regular season wins, make miss playoffs and two wildcard things. You have up to five. Player milestones. This is one you did on the NFC North Podhouse. that Caleb over for passing yards. What was it like 3,700? It's 35, 75 and a half. I couldn't recommend that more highly.

And he beat that by like 400 yards last year. Yeah, he almost did for 4,000 last season. Schedule is harder. They're going to be in more games. Their defense isn't as good. He's going to have to throw. I thought that was a great one. Receivers are better.

Good one. Regular season wins. You can use either of the ones, Sal and I did. Make or miss playoffs. I really like Dallas to make the playoffs. I think you do too. but I would also do Tampa and then you can do

whatever you want with any of the other ones. Fando has you covered right now all season long. Listen to all of our future picks. Make sure to get into the action yourself. The PBT five-pack expires. At end of the day, Monday, August 31st. You have five days house.

You'll be back in D.C. You can jump on all of these. You know I'm going to be on all of them. A five pack. Yep. All five for five. Show us your five-pack. It's right here.

after the pizza. Ten slices of Bianco going right into the five bag. Nathan once again beat you. Oh, he's a dominant pizza consumer. We ordered Nathan Hubbard. Too many pizzas and Nathan always brags about how much pizza you can eat.

With good reason. There's one sad slice left after all these things and Nathan's like, I'm done. I've tapped out and the thing was there for five minutes. We're like, Nathan, really? This is just, they're going to throw this out. a long time. Yeah.

And he just kind of sadly reached over and finished it off. He was about to get on a flight too. Yeah, he's probably destroying some airplane bathroom right now. The NFC West. Okay. Wow. This is more like it. This is good.

Let's go. Come on. Some good arguments here. Yeah. We'll start with the L.A. Rams who are prohibitive Super Bowl favorites. Plus 500. Nobody else is lower than 10 to 1. 11.5 wins.

minus 145. 12 and a half wins under is minus 145. So Fando has them pegged basically exactly at 12. Divisions almost even odds minus 115. Playoffs minus 550 plus 410

for the Rams not to make the playoffs house. Yep. Do you stare at that at all? Yeah, I mean, at that price. We'll talk about the case for that. Best record plus 330. Under 9 and a half wins plus 360. they were 12 and 5 last year.

I think they lost the five games by 11 points here and everything. And they're over under, again, they need to get basically to 12. But what if for you? What if, let's go big picture beyond the gambling. What if they don't make the Super Bowl this year? Yeah. Like, to you, is this make or break, do or die it has to be this year? I kind of think, I feel like Matt Stafford, why the hell isn't he?

in a coffin debate. Like, how is this not happen already? And yes, in that regard, yeah, it's got to be this year. How many years can we hear about back surgeries, spinal fusion? That sounds like an ugly term. It doesn't matter. Like, they extend them for $55 million. And now they have the offensive MVP.

Yeah, you got them right. He won it. Overdrig maybe. And the defensive MVP from Miles Garrett. Like, I hate it because the last six weeks, I put together 157-page document just to tell you that, the Rams are going to be as good as everybody says. So you think they will?

I do. Yeah. You're talking, you're going to talk us out of it. Go ahead. Last 30 years. Only the Patriots have been big favorites like this and actually won the Super Bowl in 2018. Every other time the team fell short,

they added McDuffie and Watson. They added Garrett, obviously, and probably Aaron Donald, which I think has been overrated by everybody because if he plays, it's going to be in the digs, 30 plays a game type thing. Right. In the playoffs, it'll matter, I think, more than it does during the regular season. Here's what's worse about them.

Offensive line is unquestionably, I think shaky is fair, right? Depth, they don't have it. Pooka had, we talked about this on the fantasy pot I did on Tuesday. Puka had just the weirdest nine and ten months you can have. And then it was like, no, no, I'm fine. I went to rehab and then walked through a glass door at Michael Rubin's White Party. It's been fun. I don't know what to make of what's going on with him.

Stafford's 38. I did this when I had Pelliserra on two weeks ago about 38 and up. It's basically 10 seasons that somebody's really come through. Yeah. I don't like the Australia game to start the year. It makes me nervous. And then they had the 13th pick in the draft. Mm-hmm.

And took Ty Simpson, who's not going to play. Don't love him. Special teams, always bad. Always seems to cost them too. games. Allerick Jackson, is it going to get suspended? Not suspended? That's their left tackle.

I had them at 32 points for their roster. They play FC West, NFC East. They have the most brutal five weeks of anyone to start the season. 49ers in Australia. Giants on Monday night at Broncos, at Eagles, home bills, just to kick off. I couldn't get to 12 wins with them. I'm under.

They lose the OC, right? Michael Floor. Yes, they lost him too. I just, I can't. Devante Adams can be 34. I just, this blue chippers all over the place. The one thing that screwed them was the special teams. And I feel like that's the easiest thing to fix, right?

If you had one unit and they bring this guy in Bubba Ventrone is now their special team coordinator who sounds like an 80s jobber, right? It sounds like he's going to lose it. Bubba Ventron sounds like Tony Barbierre would bring to the draft. Bobaventron's in town. I don't want to get too excited. He might be a jobber. Because he was the special teams coordinator for Cleveland.

Guess what plays Cleveland? Yeah. Oh, my God. They were terrible. Yes. I'm not going on there. They figure out this offense. Corum and Karen Williams at 2,000 yards combined in 19 touchdowns.

They do the two plus tight end set better than everybody, right? I just, you know, I know top five hardest schedule, but I don't think I can't put this team under 12 wins. I got them at 13 and 4. Okay. You said blue chippers everywhere. I would counter and Zag the other way and say it's a top heavy team with a couple guys that worry me. Adams is right at the range when ride receivers do this. Pucco we talked about.

Stafford at age 38. He gets rid of the ball so fast. I know. It doesn't seem to matter. I was between 11 and 12. I just like the I like the juice better for under on Fando is plus 125 for the under 11 and a half. And I like another team more in this division is really what it came down to. Really?

But this seems to me, we've seen this happen in football before when there's this much smoke being blown up the asses of a team. And one bad thing happens or somebody gets injured or they lose some game, they shouldn't lose. And that's all anyone talks about. It becomes the biggest story. I just feel like there's such a big spotlight on this team. I still have them in the playoffs.

I still think they're going to be one of the seven best teams. But weren't they the scariest team last year? Like, weren't they the team you didn't want to play forever, right? Even with Seattle got lucky in the regular season game and that could be on either way. You look at Byron Young, he's the other edge. He had 12 and a half sacks. He had 29 quarterback hits. And now he's going to have free run at these quarterbacks with Miles Garrett probably would be double team.

And I think the secondary will be better because Miles Garrett does double team. Schedule is really rough. Are they still favored in like that? By the way, this division plays. the AFC West and the NFC East. Right. So you get the three good AFC West teams and the Eagles and the Cowboys. So that could be five tough games, not to mention all the other stuff we said.

That O-Line allowed 23 sacks, I think, which is still the least. So somehow they do protect him. Because he gets rid of the ball. And then there's McFey. The Ty Simpson pick was just so weird. Yeah. I'll never understand it. If you've, like, on the one hand, you're going,

all in for Garrett. And on the other hand, you're like, we've got to think about the future. You just traded all your picks for Bows Garrett. It's also totally fine to have that mindset. Why would you use a 13 pick on a guy that everybody projected to be, was third round at best?

I don't like those. They could have had Ruben Bain. Yeah. Right. Yeah. And Stets and Bennett's a backup, by the way. If you look at the depth chart,

he's number two right now. I thought that was so weird. So you're over. Okay. I'm going on. I can't put this on there. Seattle Seahawks is over 10 and a half for the defense.

and champs plus 220 for the division. Please mark that one. One of my favorite bets. I don't understand how they are two to one odds to win the division and the Rams are dead even. Go figure. Playoffs minus 2.15. Number one seed plus 650.

Best record 8 to 1. 12 plus wins. I have in bold plus 155. 13 plus wins is plus 280. Okay. I haven't done this the whole podcast. What are we? Hour 40 in?

Six hours, 12 minutes. I haven't talked about the New England Patriots yet. Oh. You did talk about the Red Sox. Yeah. And something about the Wizards. That was your first interjection I didn't like. New York Patriots, we win the Super Bowl the second time.

They beat the Panthers, right? Uh-huh. O'3. End up winning the Super Bowl in 0-4 as well. And between 03 and 04, what happened? Everybody's like, eh, Colts. It's Colts here. Here it comes.

Colts, Colts, Colts, Colts, Colts. Colts. What happened? The Pats, I think they won 21 straight over the, over the two years, which was a record. They put together the back-to-back, like 14 and 2, 15 to 1. I can't remember it was so long ago. That went in and put the Smackdown on the Colts again. I love that it's a very rare occasion where somebody won the Super Bowl and is also the

nobody believes in us team. Wow. Just an amazing spot for them to be in. They win the Super Bowl and it was like, eh, Rams, Rams, Rams. These guys brought everybody back. Everybody. Not everybody. Well, they lost Wollin.

How about the Super Bowl MVP? They lost Walker, but they drafted Price from Notre Dame to be whatever. But when I did my roster, they had the most roster rankings, most points 38. I had seven guys in their defense that got points, which is by far the most. Not to mention their special teams are awesome. Dixon and Sheid both got points for me on that. they have one of the best receivers in the league, if not the best. I think the price thing we talked about in the fantasy.

I think he's going to be good. I don't think they're going to lose anything. And then McDonald was the best coach in the league last year. This is a team that should have gone 19 and no. The games they lost, they easily could have won. They kind of blew. And I think they're better than the Rams. I've felt this the whole summer.

It's not a Zach. I genuinely think they're better. And I love that everybody's saying the Rams are better. I think this is perfect. I think there's a real back to the game. back case for them. Maybe I'm just bored with hard knocks because they spent like 20 minutes on Sam Donald's spiral.

Yeah. The other day. I was like, all right, enough. But my counter is how the F did this team win the Super Bowl. Sam Donald went from 12 interceptions to 14 interceptions. He was the most turned over player in the NFL last year. They're over under with seven and a half. This is remarkable what they did.

Here's who has an over under seven and a half wins. The Steelers, Buck, Saints, Colts. Would you bet any? of those to make it past a divisional round? I mean, that was one of my big best last year. We won all kinds of Seahawks futures. I just don't know. You know, the second most giveaways,

first team to have zero turnovers in the playoffs. It was a miracle that they had all these giveaways. They were awesome. I think McDonald's great. I really do. I think that's the difference. I think he's the best coach in the league. Top three offense, top three defense.

You could say whatever you want. You could explain it away. He is great. 15 and 2 on the road in the last two years. They don't take any games off. They play hard for him. They have a real home field advantage. I just think it's tough to do.

They lose the Super Bowl MVP. All the quarterback coordinators left with Kubiak, which is kind of a big thing. I don't know that he could do it again. That's the biggest. But I would argue he created this template that they're going to continue to use. No, he took that with him. No, he didn't.

Okay. All right. They lost three-starring defenders, too. Here's another thing. Yeah. So their schedule, which is hard, but not quite as hard as you would think it would be, one of the best things that happened on them. They're playing the Patriots in the first game. The Patriots aren't going to win that.

I love the Patriots. We're not winning that game. We're not winning that game. Who cares? It's a Super Bowl loser going back playing the Super Bowl winner. Like, we're not winning that game. But later in the season, maybe we can go in there. But that's just like such a bad spot for the Pats.

They play the Chargers at home. They play the Cowboys. that's a Monday night at home. They play the Eagles in mid-December right around when the Eagles start doing weird shit. And then they're at the Rams, but it's week 18. They might not even need the game. They might really need the game.

They have six prime time and five are at home. So that definitely helps. There's some shit teams on this schedule too. But I just... So you don't think 14 to 11? Like, that's where I have them. I have them 11 and 6. Still good team.

Well, the over's 10 and a half. So there you go. It's good over. I have them at 13 and 4. and I like the 13 plus wins at plus 280. I like the 1C at plus 650. I like, I'm bullish on all of these. How about,

I think it's going to be surprising every time they lose. Sure. What about Terry and Arnold karma? I didn't love that. I don't get it. But how is that didn't stop the chiefs as they had 14 weird things happen over five years.

No, I get it. I just don't know. I don't believe in football karma anymore because the chiefs like defied it. Well, why? I guess kind of the Patriots did too since we had a double murder. on our team. Oh, yeah.

You said that guy. I didn't. And we're going to see with the Ravens with the Max Crosby thing because that was ridiculous too. But why do you do? Why the Lions have to cut them

and then another team could just get them and it's fine? I just think there's no honor in football. Okay. They lost their second rounder, Bud Clark, who wasn't supposed to start but it was like important

for their backup stuff. Really, if price can be 95% what Walker was, and the Seahawks fans, I think all really liked Walker, but also done 100% trust him because he was never, he'd just have some weird banged up

in some way. Charbonnet's a little hurt too, right? Charbonnet's a little hurt. So if price is a bust, I don't think he's going to be. I'm just saying how Darnold wasn't all that. It was a remarkable run, but statistically it was improbable.

And yet, they did it. Yeah. That's the, I'm going to walk you through this really quick. There's a world where they're 10 and 0, after 10 weeks. Wow. I think you make a case they're favored

in every one of these games. Pat's week one, at cards, at commanders, I think that's 3-0. Chargers, 49ers at home, they're going to be favored in both of those.

At Broncos on a Thursday night, might not be favored on that. That's week six. Chiefs, Bears, home, Cardinals home. At Raiders, week 10. Then the buy.

And the buy. Yeah. I think they're going to be 9-1 or 10-0. I have a mate and two, but. I think I'm taking, crazy pills with the Seahawks. Their roster is so fucking loaded.

And the only thing you can say is, oh, they won last year. They're going to, it's the year after. It's like, nobody's picking them or talking about them and everyone's moved out of the Rams. I think they'd see it and notice it.

Good team. We more or less agree. It's an over, right? Yeah, but you like the Rams one. I do. There you go. See, put that on your bulletin board, Mike McDonald. Cousin Sal, year 20.

Sam, Cisco 49ers, over nine and a half. Division plus 340. I would not recommend that. Super Bowl 17 and 1. 12 plus ones plus 230. Playoffs minus 134. Not to make it plus 114 house.

Under 8.5 wins plus 190. If you're really banking on the year from hell. Last year there are 12 and 5 and nobody understood it as it was happening. What if we already know this is the year from hell team? You can argue there with the year from hell team. last year. There's no preceding. Let me give you some stuff.

Go ahead. Kyle Shanhan, terrible car accident, covered up. We still don't know what happened and got a severe concussion. Right? Bad start.

Big, little scandaly over there. Jed York, owner in a trailer park in Ohio. Say it without laughing. Allegedly paying for a prostitute had that happen. Ricky Pearsall, they lost for the year.

George Kittle, tore his Achilles in 2006, in January. he's just going to come back and be George Kittle again. He's in his early 30s now. Fred Warner coming off a really bad knee injury. Is it knee injury or ankle? It was knee, I thought.

McCaffrey, they struck oil with him last year. There's a lot of advanced stats against him. They're rolling the dice with Evans and Debo together. Two guys that... They didn't want to sign Debo. They're like, well, please, what do we have to do? Please, we can't do this. And they have an electrical substation that might be fucking up all their players.

next thing. I'm out. Let's talk about that electrical substation. Yeah. Why can't they move? It's a practice facility. Let's see what happens. Maybe everybody's wrong. But move for a year.

It can't cost too much money to move this place. If I'm on the team, I would move the practice. Just move it. Move it to a trailer park in Ohio, whatever you have to do. Buy your own trail. Maybe he was scouting locations. That's what I would have said. If he was smart enough, I was looking at Ohio.

It's not that far from San Francisco. Yeah, yeah. Short flight. Here's my counter. I think they're bulletproof with these injuries. It's very fair. They had 74 player injuries before week one last year. Yeah.

And they were still, they could have won the division. They were playing Seattle. What was the week 17? Like they were up right to win that division. So they would have been in the mix. It's a very weird, very weird, what happened to them. Listen, this is not a lock for me. I did a very tiny under at 9 and 8.

It's plus 115 on Fandoz, so there's a little juice on it. But they're going to be. 10 and 7 or 9 and 8. I had them at 11. I have them 11 and 6. Yeah. I would not do that. Miami, Arizona, home for Denver, I think could be three wins outside of that Rams game.

They travel more than anyone else. I'll say that, like 38,000 miles, which has never been seen before. I had the roster at 26 points, which says they're going to be a playoff team, but doesn't account for the fact that they're in a division with probably the two best teams in the conference. O-Line's a little above average. Defense should be okay. Shanahan, assuming he's recovered from his mysterious car accident, is still a top five or six coach.

I guess the question for me, can they be three and two after five weeks? At Rams in Australia. Dolphids, Cardinals, Broncos, all at home. Right. At Seahawks. Feels like that should be three and two. Three and two.

If you're three and two at that point, now I need to go 8 and 5 the rest of the way to get there. I still get to play the Falcons. I get the Raiders, get the Giants. I get the Cardinals in Week 18. They're home against Washington. Minnesota. Minnesota.

Yeah. Winnable games for sure. Yeah, I'm probably wrong. But I just, when there's this much bad juju before we're not even too weeks away from the season, what else is going to happen? And then everybody's like, stribling looks great. He's going to be an impact guy right away. When are rookie receivers impact guys?

What does that happen? Well, would you say Ted McMillan was a... Yeah, as the year went along, but it took a while, and it was really, like, down the stretch. They need him, like, in week one, to be seven catches, 100 yards. Yeah. Like, somebody's going to pay 20 bucks for him in our fantasy arts. You guys talked about it fantasy yesterday, the day before,

purdy quietly, like top 10 whenever he's healthy. He's really good, you know? So they have, like, 70% pre-snap motion plays, and it's still to give Shanahan. credit has not been solved by these defenses. I might change my pick. Well, you don't want to get all these top heavy wins, but we get to Arizona next and we could just bombs away on them.

What do you think, Kess? Has might swing my pick here. I like the San Francisco 49ers for 10 wins. I like them over this upcoming season. That schedule has too many built in. Them getting Washington and the Giants. I think I'm going to change my pick. you get the 10.

And then, and Shanahan always, I mean, what Shanahan did to the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, that's like a reminder. Right. You know,

he can come in and scheme against excellent teams. Mac Jones. I really wanted to hold strong hair and I just can't. It's okay. Ten wins for them. We'll tee off on the Cardinals

and it'll all make sense. Right. Can I figure I had to pick them for 10 wins but not make the playoffs? Maybe I'll try to do that. Hold on. Can I do that? Sam,

Rands. Oh, I can do that. Okay. I've done 10 wins but missed the playoffs. I love this. I was up to like two in the morning the other night, meticulously go, and then you're like, I'm going to change my pick here. What do I know? Hey, listen. You can do it. It's America. Playoffs plus 114 to miss. So I'm going to go over, but they're 10 and 7 and they're in a tiebreaker with somebody that I'm in.

The tiebreaker will be with Dallas. Dallas. I was just going to say that. Yeah. Yeah, so if they lose at Cowboys Week 10, that's going to cause them. That's the playoff spot. There we go. Favorite in 12 games. Shanahan's. beat the hell out of Dallas. I have under us... Last year, last year I lost...

The money I lost last year on Futures was multiple Niners' bets on the Under. They went over and then the Chiefs, which killed all of us. The Chiefs like that, talk about Netflix true crime. That could have been like the Idaho killers. The 2025 Chiefs,

just murdering everybody who loves division. I will do no division parleyes this year. I only made one parlay. To win the video? Oh, really? But you'll do this first to fourth bullshit? But those are like big odds. I'm saying like in the past, you would,

you would call me like on August 20 and be like, hey, Simmons. Doing a cousin's number station. What? I don't like this at all. Hey, Simmons. If we do bills, chiefs, Rams, all for the playoffs,

plus 112. Who fucks us? That's, what is that? That's you committing a burglary. It's like a heavy brother. Yeah, it was very breathy. But we would do these three teamers.

To make the playoffs. We're always in the chiefs were like, well, throw them. They're going to make it every year for the rest of our lives. And then they went six and 11. Yeah. We called it the KCD, right? Like a CD, like a CD, like you save for the future.

The reason I brought that up, I think Houston and Seattle both to make the playoffs is my favorite one of those. That's like plus 120 on Fando, something like that. Just Houston and Seattle. will make the playoffs. Put your profit boost token, 50% add on that. I just don't see how that gets fucked up.

Like, CJ Strad would really have to turn into Deshawn Watson level collapse. You have 30 wins between those teams. Yeah. It would take a lot. Yeah. I think House is nodding.

Well, it's because we talked about this some on our gambling show. The direction the league is going where defense is becoming much more sticky than year over year. And you just named two of the best defenses in the entire NFL. And that's been a recurring theme for me with these features is defenses and offensive lines. And if you have a really good version of one or both, I'm in.

And in this case, Seattle has an above average offensive line. And I think the best defense in the NFC. I think Houston is the best defense. All right. Last one. Arizona Cardinals. Over three and a half. These are really tough historically when teams are just supposed to be.

be bad. Division, they're 100 to 1. Playoffs, they're 20 to 1. If you want to bet them not to make the playoffs, it's 71, so don't do that. 70. So I have to borrow $7,000 from you to win 100? Yeah, I'll give it to you when you leave. All right, thank you.

Worst record plus 250. Last year, they were 3 and 14. Yeah. This year, if you're picking them to go under, you're going to say they go 3 and 14 again. And my question for you is, what if they start out 0 and 11? Do you still feel good about the under 1st?

or three and a half. It's great because they're going to start out 0 and 11. There's an 0 and 5 thing on Fandall a number for that, for them to start 0 and 5, and I love that. Doesn't Fando have the bet where it's like who's going to be the last

team that has a win? Yeah. Can you find that for us house? Yeah, House, please. That's a good one. I think it's Arizona because they go at Chargers, Seahawks, at Niners, at Giants, home lions,

at Rams, at Cowboys, at Seattle, Rams, at Chiefs. I have them one in 10. Yeah. Are they going to be getting less than seven points in any game other than the Giants game? No.

The Giants will probably be like plus four and a half. They're not favor in any games, right? Zero games. Look, this is a stupid, stupid franchise. Not billionaire seeking out a hooker for $140 stupid, but I mean, to draft a running back who was already banged up with a draft cap, first round draft capital, when you don't even have a quarterback, first of all, that running back is going to be wasted for at least two years. They ran him 14 fucking times.

Awful. In the first preseason game. And he looked awesome, by the way. And you don't. But you don't have a quarterback. Like, you have to at least have a quarterback sign. Instead, you have Jacoby Brissette who holds this team hostage for most of the summer. He's like, hey, I'm one in 11 with you guys. You definitely need me back. You see what I could do in garbage time, right? That's why my stats aren't completely miserable. You know what it is with Percette.

I can't believe. That was so bad with us two years ago, but he was pretty good in garbage time. That's all it is. It's fine. They had all those games lost before he did it. They were 0 and 6 against the NFC West. You can't lock a three, though, because you have to be, you have to give them two wins then. But here's the thing. I went three and 14.

I did it as well. Yeah. But you're not going to lock that? Killer division. I'll lock it. Yeah. Zero games played the toughest schedule. I don't see how any of this works out for Michael Ford. Oh, and by the way, Nate Hackett, Private Eye is the OC, our guy. We should have mentioned that sooner.

The love pick was just malpractice. I know everybody likes him, but it's fine. They're like super deep at running back because they also signed Tyler Alger for some reason. Right. So it's like, hey, we have some awesome running backs. It's cool. Every other position is below average. Yeah. The coach didn't believe it.

What was the OC who said, yeah, he's a rookie. What do you say about love? Yeah, he's a rookie. And, oh, I'm excited to see James Connor and Alger compete. Like, it doesn't even get... I had them for roster rankings. I had them for six points. And McBride was three of them.

Baker, I gave a two. And I gave Marvin Harrison a one. I'm not... Probably him or Wilson is a one combined, maybe. Right. But I just think they're going to get smoked. I mean, Sharp did these... Oh, pretty colors.

Sharp did these graphs for some of the teams. And it's the wind total projections. And they're just all at the top for 11 weeks. It's the hardest schedule on the league. Yeah, because they don't have to play them. They can't play themselves. They can't play themselves. Yeah, that's why this has been a hard, I think, summer to figure out all this stuff.

Because sometimes the hardest schedule in the league, you want to a team, like, give it to like San Francisco. And then it's like, oh, yeah. Right, but they're going to go 0 and 6 again because they can't go 0 in 8. Yeah, and in the division. I don't know what it admits. I mean, the best thing you can hope for is like Carson Beck steps up and looks good for next year or something. I'm going to make my annual plea.

Maybe I'm going to look at my camera for a second, but then look back and so. Go back. You have your own thing. Where is it? My camera's there. Your camera's there. We're just going to get fucked three Sundays this year where there's two games in the afternoon window. one's a blowout and the other is the Cardinals losing by 38 points in the second quarter.

It makes me so mad. There should not be one situation this year where the Cardinals are one of two games in the late window. Right. We have to at least have three. Protect us. Protect us, NFL. Don't just leave us hanging in the toilet with no toilet paper with the Cardinals. Wow.

Just wondering, hey, can you give me some toilet paper? Right. Like, think about us. Think about the fans. Yeah, Spar Square. How about this? I'm going to use your camera too. No, use your camera.

Your camera is right here. Yeah. Goodell petition the Cardinals to move to, like, Arkansas so they can play the 10 a.m. Pacific time. Oh, yeah. Move to the East Coast. Yeah, so we can put them with the garbage games there. Can they switch with the AFC team that we like in the East Coast? Yeah.

The Bills. Yeah. You put the bills on the West Coast. That would be amazing. Pass 90 seconds on the NFC West. I have the Seattle Seahawks winning the division at 20. 12 wins right behind them, the LA Rams right behind them, San Francisco at 10 wins. And Arizona to win worst record, that's the correct play for sure.

It's between them and Miami, you'll be able to hedge it out at the very end season. Because we're going to have the tanking stuff too. Yeah. There's been like three quarterbacks everybody's going to want. That's exactly right. So other than Arizona, good division. We're going to see great games in between those two teams, those three teams. They always, you know, round robin it between the three of them.

So you're just not scared of. the San Francisco bad juju at all. I mean, 10 wins. That's the step backwards from last season. You have more wins for the NFC North or the NFC West? I think I think I'm dead even, although I might have added a win with San Francisco. Oh, yeah, you screwed up on my map.

Come on. Okay. So I think that's a fun thing for Fandals. You could do that one division more than the other, and West is a good place to start. I was trying to get them to do NFC, like, biggest, the part of the most wins in one division, least wins in the other division.

Do you think the NFC West has the most wins? I think I did. I lost that one of 60 sheets here that I can't find. But yeah, well, I have the three double digit. Because the most wins, I had this. I had this somewhere. The most wins. I have 39 for the NFC West.

And yeah, 37. So I had trouble getting to 40 wins in any division in my laying it all out. Last year, the winner was the NFC West with 41. That was the most wins. In 24, the NFC North had 45 wins. Wow. 2023, the AFC North had 43.

And then in 2022, the NFC East had 43. So history tells us we're between 41 and 43, basically. And I couldn't get to 40 anywhere. So maybe it's this one. Who knows? Okay. To recap, let's recap the locks. Are you only in two locks?

I think I had two, right? Yep. You had Arizona. Cardinals under and Giants under. Those were your two. To me, I think if we were going to do a playoff parley, let's do it not make the playoff parley. Every year we do it to make the playoff parley and then it seems like two in four and

we can work on that for part two. I have Dallas over nine and a half, Washington under seven and a half, Tampa over eight and a half, Atlanta under seven and a half. Seattle over ten and a half. I'm calling it right now. That's going to be five and oh. Wow. Yeah.

Okay. Vando, put that put that on your site. My five-team parlay of win total overs and unders. Say it to my camera now. Bandle. Okay. And we think the NFC champion is going to be? The LA Rams.

I have the Seattle Seahawks. I will say. I thought long and hard about picking your team. But I felt like you were going to walk out and not do part two. It's so funny. If I had taken Dallas, I think you would have left. I have Dallas. You're like, you motherfucker.

How can you do this to be? Dallas is a three-seat over Seattle is my first round pick and have the Rams beating the Packers and the NFC championship. The only thing we know for sure is Tampa will be the fourth seed. Ready to play either Seattle or the Rams. Tampa already is getting five points in the wildcard game, even though they haven't played in the end. That's the only line they have, playoff line that.

House, what was your favorite luck? The Atlanta. I'm so super out on Atlanta. That's it for part one, which we were happy to do live here on Netflix. On Sunday, we're going to have part two, which is going to be the AFC, same format, same strategy. We're going to take a break.

Maybe get some drinks. Thanks to Gahou, thanks to Eduardo, thanks to Fandall, thanks to everybody behind the scenes at the ringer. Thanks to Don Johnson, still smoking the same cigarette. Thanks to Fara. And I will see you for the AFC campaign. Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas and affiliation

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