The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: August 29, 2024

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to run through the expected win totals of every NFC team and make their over/under picks. NFC East (2:04) NFC North (25:52) NFC South (46:44) NFC West (1:02:54) Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, we did a podcast five years ago called Break Stuff about the 25th anniversary of Woodstock 99. It was awesome. Eight episodes, hosted by Steve Hyden. We turned it into a documentary eventually for the Music Box series on HBO. And now that podcast is available wide. Go search for it on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where we can find Against All Odds with Cousin Sal. We're presented by a fan dual sports book as well which is giving all customers two profit boosts on nfl futures

starting friday 8 30 through next week they let sal and i do a bunch of our custom parlay bets you can find it it's a link called futures fusion and then our names are there yeah it's your dream if i told you 20 years ago we'll just be making bets for somebody when we were sitting in like Jimmy's office. So we're kind of doing that anyway. I'm like, no pets. Yeah. For nobody.

It's pretty great. Yeah. If you would have said, you know, we're going to be a futures fusion one day. I mean, what the hell is that? Is that a new Asian place down the block? I don't know. Futures fusion.

I love their chicken. Anyway, check out the Futures Fusion tab plus bettors can build fun player props combos using the parlay builder my favorite picks will be highlighted on FanDuel

and on my social feed Sal will be doing a bunch of that as well and you can boost these picks with the profit boost or boost your own you can watch this podcast on Bill Simmons channel

on YouTube and we did AFC on Tuesday I almost picked two teams to make the Superbowl from the AFC. I backed out at the last minute. I took Houston over Casey. Sal had Buffalo.

We disagreed on almost everything. We'll see what happens with the NFC. That's coming up next. The annual over unders podcast. First, our friends from ProJet. all right so here we go you've been dreading this all summer. The NFC East for the annual Bill and Sal of the annual podcast. We'll start with Philadelphia. This is the most defensive. I was thinking about it.

This might be the most I'm rooting for the Cowboys since the Romo years. I'm so defensive about this Cowboys team and the love for the Eagles. All right, we can get to it. I just don't know. Let's start with Dallas then, even though they have the second best odds because that's stupid. So many people were betting their under during the summer that it went from 10 and a half to nine and a half.

They made history. I can only remember like three times in the last 20 years, the over under for a team. They actually had to move it. They never want to move it. The masses or asses is Thomas Jefferson or someone important like that. Did he say that about sports betting? I don't remember him being a big gambler.

Over now, nine and a half wins, which has some juice on it. Minus 144 for the division. They're plus 175. Conference 8-1. Playoffs, 196 to make it minus. Plus 158 not to make it. Number one seed seed plus 800. You can go for the year from hell for the Cowboys.

Under 7.5 wins. Alt adjusted plus 320. Why would you do that? Why would you do that? Last year, they were 12 and 5. Yeah. And then the playoffs started and they turned into the Cowboys. They lost 48 to 32.

Okay. Got the Green Bay thing going. We're doing over-unders though, right? We're doing regular season. So if Dallas wins 10 games, you win the over. Sign me up. Sign me up. 10 games also means playoffs.

36 wins over the last three years. You're going 12, 12, and 12. Now all of a sudden you're going to go under? Why? Because the Eagles are better? Like we signed our blue chipper, C.D. Lamb. That's the scariest player in the division. Maybe in the conference if McCaffrey's hurt. I love what they're doing. Mike Zimmer's a DC, you know, and I get it. People are freaked out because it's been 21 years since you've had a

repeat winner. But I don't understand all this hatred for Dak. He puts up 4,200, 4,500 yards. How many have they won in a row at home? Like 16 games or something crazy in the regular season? 16 straight at home. Talk me out of this. I don't know why we're going under here. You think there's hatred for Dak? I would

say it's gone the other way and he's been quietly the most overrated quarterback in the league. Quietly overrated? Yeah. Because he doesn't win playoff games. We usually try to judge our quarterbacks by that. We got to figure out what we're doing here. Are we doing over-unders or are we doing what happens in January?

Regular season Dak is fucking awesome. Well, why don't you go this crazy about Lamar? You love the Ravens. It's the same situation. Not really. Lamar's won two MVPs. 58-19 as a starter. Dak was second in MVP votes last year.

People are dumb. Put him up there. So the case for it, you got a new rookie left tackle, Guyton. You have high-end talent. You could argue you might have the best receiver in the conference and the best defensive player in the conference and the best defensive player in the conference right you have a franchise quarterback that's about it i'm out of i'm out of positives negatives you have the worst running backs in the league now i know we've discounted

the running back position and we should you know it's like we we can find anybody go after our punter too if you want you have the Pats backup running back as your starter from 2023 now as your starter Zeke Elliott

um Bland's out for eight weeks that wasn't great not great six to eight weeks but four of those quarterbacks are not great in those first six weeks

but go ahead Dak contract fiasco I'm gonna say that's you never solved it and you some of the dumbest cap space stuff I think we've seen the last ten years with this team DAC contract fiasco? I'm going to say that's, you never solved it. And some of the dumbest cap space stuff I think we've seen in the last 10 years with this team, where it's like, you're just telling me how great DAC is,

then why didn't your guy give him a contract? But we extended him after his leg injury. So I don't know why. Yeah, but the way it's structured, the cap hit for him this season is suicidal. It's almost as bad as Denver getting rid of Russell Wilson and just taking the hit. You're not deflecting any of it.

Jerry overpays, but it's a little bit of a problem when you've got a quarterback, a wide receiver, and an edge rusher who want to be the top. Who are going to make $150 million between them? They all want to be the top eight at their position. So what do you have to do here? It doesn't seem sustainable. I was saying on the pod a couple days ago

that I do think we're going to look back at this cap era where people are paying three guys crazy amounts of money and being like, well, we got to. And I think the returns on it are going to be pretty dicey. Probably. Because you're taking away so much from other positions to pay the three dudes. There's more stuff I don't like. be pretty dicey because you're just, you're taking away so much from other positions to pay the three dudes. There's more stuff I don't like. Um, Mike McCarthy, lame ducks.

Has there been a lamer duck season? You, the owner comes out and says like, ah, I kind of like people in a contract here. It puts a little pressure on him. Like he's poo pooing the possibility of, and you have Belichick and you have Mike Vrabel just looming over the entire season. The moment things go wrong which you know you're at

Cleveland week one it's a not that hard first four weeks at Giants on a Thursday night and then kicks in with at Pittsburgh

Detroit bye week at San Fran at Atlanta home Philly home Houston. It's a lot of good teams all in a row. Always six primetime games.

Always teams gunning for them. Always going to be like that. You got seven non-one o'clock afternoon games. Yep. Including two Thursdays. Tough stretch in mid-October. I agree. Gets a little easier near the end.

I'm going under. Okay. I'm going to leave. I'm going under. Okay. I'm sorry. I'm leaving, Kyle. Take my microphone. I'm so insulted by this. I really am. It's less with Dallas. I have one team coming out of this division and it's not Dallas.

There are other divisions I like more. It's not you. It's me. Okay. I think you're It's me. Okay. I think you're worried about the wrong things. Who cares if it's Rico Dowdle or running back? What's the threshold? He's not going to get two touchdowns and 400 yards. A running back now, if he or she gets 800 yards and six touchdowns, it's fine. Female running backs?

Lots of female running backs. Look at your team. 800 yards, six touchdowns, it's fine. Lots of female running backs. Look at your team. 800 yards, six touchdowns is the threshold. Why are we going crazy? Does any running back scare you other than McCaffrey? You literally have one skilled position guy plus Jake Ferguson.

Just the best. Your second, third receivers among the worst in the league. He gets to 4,500 yards no matter what. Offensive line is in the worst in the league. He gets to 4,500 yards no matter what. Probably worse than the league. Offensive line is in the worst shape it's been this decade. Right? It's like a B-minus now.

Used to be like an A or an A+. Yep. B-minus is gone. B-minus is probably fair. Defense. The Lawrence Parsons combo. Got that still. D-backs should be good, although Bland's out. Zimmer for Quinn, I think he's more suited for this defense to look over it.

The last time we saw the defense, they were getting absolutely video game torched by the Packers. So why are they better? What's different about it? Well, you love the Ravens, despite their pitiful playoff performances. But when we do over-unders, we have to crap all over the Cowboys. I'm so defensive.

I'm so defensive. As you know, I'm a narrative guy. Yeah. I've been accused of it over the years. Yeah. It feels lame duck, McCarthy, guys looming. He would have said this last year. Season's not going right.

He was a lame duck last year. I just don't like the vibe. All right. Bet under don't like the vibe. All right. Bet under. Watch what happens. Well, I am taking the under. Well, don't go crawling to me for money when that happens.

Don't you dare do it. Philadelphia, their over is 10 and a half wins. Oh, yeah. Dallas used to be 10 and a half wins until so many people bet it, they had to adjust it. Minus 148. So juice on the over. Division minus 140, which has been, they had to adjust it. Minus 148, so juice on the over.

Division minus 140, which has been, they were plus division, right? Right. Wasn't Dallas the favorite for a little while? Yeah. And then it flipped. Philly's the favorite now. Just like the AFC. Minus 300 for the playoffs.

You can get them plus 450 for the one seed. And I completely agree. It's been too much of a shift toward Philly. People throwing away what happened down the stretch last year. 11-6. They lost six of their last seven. They got killed by Baker Mayfield. The

chemistry was so bad. ESPN didn't even wait until the week. Usually it's the week of the new season when they write the whole piece about all the bad chemistry. They didn't do that. They did the Sirianni Hurts giant feature about it two weeks ago. I like some of the stuff they did. I think they're better. They brought in Fangio. Their coaching situation last year was pretty grim on both sides of the ball. Saquon Barkley, angry the Giants gave up on him. They flipped Redick, who's holding out now and

seems like a, God only knows what that dude's doing. And they brought Huff from the Jets. I don't know why the Jets just didn't keep Huff, but that was good. Spent a bunch of free agent money and capital on D-backs and strengthened that. And their offensive line,

I know they lost Jason Kelsey, but it's still a good offensive line. It's still massive. And I think Hurts was hurt last year. That's the other thing. I had Hurts futures. I had him on both fantasy teams. That dude was not fucking healthy for the last two-thirds of the year.

And it just feels like a comeback year. Well, I can't say anything. But they lost six out of the last seven. I get it. But I also took Jacksonville in our AFC pod, and they died too down the stretch. I appreciate that. I'm just saying.

And GM is the best in the game. He really does. He plays these Jedi mind tricks. They got the receiver out of Washington. They got Dotson for nothing. They knew when to get rid of Redick, who might not play football again, as you mentioned. They have awesome receivers.

Barkley is good for them. Barkley is a top six running back. Okay. But they score from the three-yard line anyway. Okay. Like, I never liked that running back before. But they score from the three-yard line anyway. It doesn't matter with the tush push. I just think they have a lot of time, man. You're going to say he's injured.

I want to know why they went one and six down the stretch. And if you listen to Jason Kelsey and some of these guys interviewed, you read between the lines, they're like, these teams figured us out. 49ers figured us out. The zero blitz kills hurts, you know? Yeah. We're kind of showing hurts. You know? Yeah. We're kind of showing our plan right there to them.

They went, you know, they had a weird, I know the loser in the Super Bowl was supposed to drop off a little bit, but it didn't work that way. They had such a good first half. And then it eventually kicked in anyway. Then it kicked in. It was weird.

They went from 70 sacks to 43. They weren't the defensive force that they were. I think 10 and a half is way too high, much like it is with Cincinnati. It's weird. They went from 70 sacks to 43. They weren't the defensive force that they were. I think 10.5 is way too high, much like it is with Cincinnati. I'm going under here, and I don't think they make the playoffs. And I know, I know I'm biased here. So, how about this? I think we're both right. I think one of these teams doesn't make the playoffs, and I'm going to say it's Philly, and you say...

I mean, I think it's Dallas doesn't make it. You think Philly doesn't make it. All right, we're both right. Good. But I think one team comes out of this division. One of these teams is going to be a letdown. One of these teams is going to be the one. Every year there's a first take team

where first take starts and it's the thing on the bottom is like, can Philly season be saved? What's wrong in Dallas? And it's going to be one of these two teams. And I just don't know which one it is. All right. I told you which one it was. If you don't want to listen, that's fine Dallas? And it's going to be one of these two teams. And I just don't know which one it is. All right.

I told you which one it was. If you don't want to listen, it's fine. I think it's going to be your team. I don't know what. The Saquon, I don't know. I'm so down on running backs,

but they just don't scare me. You hear like, Saquon's coming to town. Like, I don't know. Would you prepare a lot differently? We're going from seeing Saquon with terrible quarterbacks

and no offensive line to Saquon with a good offensive line. Is it good? I mean, they had this Juergens who's replacing Kelsey. Is that like 45 snaps at center? I get it, but this center, and I know Jason Kelsey was awesome, and he was the leader of the team. He was basically ordering people

around. I know how good he was. But the center position, it does seem like the center gets hurt, and they're like, they've moved the left guard to center, and they're still fine. It's both important and unimportant depending on the team. I refuse to believe that just because they don't have Jason Kelsey, the Eagles offense is going to fall apart.

They have two awesome receivers. They have a top six running back and their quarterback two years ago was one drive away from winning the Super Bowl. Unlike your guy. I don't know what to say. My guy doesn't make it, but the Eagles scored nine points

in a playoff game and everyone's like, no, no, they're back. They're going to win 12 games. All right. Well, one thing we can agree on, neither of us probably like the rest of this division.

I really, really wanted to get Washington into the playoffs as one of my playoff teams. They fit all the criteria. New coach theory. They had the Ron Rivera BNR me combo. Just legendary bad coaching. They brought in the criteria. New coach theory. They had the Ron Rivera-Biennemi combo. Just legendary bad coaching.

They brought in Dan Quinn, who's not Newt Rockne, but he's competent and better, and you had him, and he's solid. Jaden Daniels seems like he's going to be able to play right away. 24 years old. There's some good bets with him. I think he's 6-1 to be Offensive Rookie of of the year and Caleb's plus

one 20. And, and you know, they might, they might have a good offense. They're over a six and a half. I feel pretty good about going over on it. Playoffs plus three 10 is where,

uh, where I got off the train. They're four and 13 last year. And it just seems realistic to me. They had a lot of draft picks, new coach, Jaden Daniels over Sam Howell, who's a turnover sack machine. They had a couple of lines. They got added Wagner and Luvo.

Their turnover differential last year was minus 14, which was the absolute worst. And the biggest thing is the organization. New owner comes in, brings in Adam Peters and a whole bunch of people. They actually like are trying to care about the right things unlike last year where it was like just the Poison Factory.

Yeah. So the vibes will be good. I like the Poison Factory. I just don't think they have enough talent. If they have to rename the stadium. The Poison Factory would be good. I just couldn't get there

from a talent standpoint. They don't, like if you're just looking at like kick-ass guys and even let's say Daniels is a kick-ass rookie QB. Yeah. McLaurin's good. Josh Allen, Luvo Wagner. It's a, it's not a long list. I just don't think they have enough talent to make the playoffs. I like the over. I had to take a chance on someone and I did it with the Raiders and the AFC. This is my

playoff team in the NFC. I know Joe Hayes hates my team. I know. And I just think Jaden Daniels is going to be so good. And I'm going to take that six to one to an offensive rookie of the year. And I right sitting right here gave out the offensive rookie of the year last year. So I'm going to hit it again. It's a great bet.

It's, it's one of those, we look at stuff that it's like when we talked about Jacksonville and the AFC thing where it's just like, people just aren't on it. And there's been so much Caleb buzz, and he's on hard knocks. He's the number one pick. Oh my God, what an incredible situation. Much like Bryce Young last year, same thing.

And even if he's good, Daniels might be even better. He is a special talent, Bill. He's a special kind of talent. And I think with Cliff Kingsbury in there, an offensive coordinator, not head coach, bring him in there. I think he's right there. He has three road games,

Daniels and his first four. So it's going to be a little bit of a learning curve, but they're winnable. Tampa Bay giants, Cincinnati and Arizona. I think they're going to be the team. Like what's going on with Washington. This is RG three all over again.

He better be careful. I was running all over the place. That kind of thing. Took a couple of guys away from the Cowboys are going to be productive. This is RG3 all over again. He better be careful while he's running all over the place. That kind of thing. Took a couple of guys away from the Cowboys. They're going to be productive. So Armstrong and Fowler. And they're playing dimes.

They're playing dimes twice. Yeah. Playing Watson, Bryce Young, Russell Wilson, Levis, Carr, and Baker Mayfield. So the case against them and why I didn't want to take them is their defense on paper what they were last year. There's no scenario where if you're saying who are the four worst defenses in the league not the conference. Washington has to be mentioned. And

I just don't think their defense is good enough to get to 10 wins. But the fact that they play a bunch of crap or mediocre quarterbacks would help them. I just don't think they have the defense. The offense, I think their destiny is going to be the red zone team. They're going to be super fun. McLaurin will have an awesome year.

Daniels will have some scrambles. And that's kind of who they'll end up being. I guess I think they win these coin flip games more than they lose them. But you're right. That pass defense was bad. I think they allowed 35 touchdowns. The defense is... I don't know who has the worst defense.

Honestly, who has the worst defense? I mean, Arizona's not going to be great. Giants might not be great. Tennessee, maybe. They're one of the first ones mentioned. So they're at Tampa week one and then home Giants week two.

And if they could somehow beat Tampa, then they're going at Cincy week three, a team that I like less than you. But there's a case. They'd have to add Arizona week four. I don't like Cincy. Neither of us like Cincy. Right.

Yeah. So I think they would. They lose in the first few games. I think they would have to go three and one coming out of those first four. Yeah. To realistically be. That's going to be a big story.

All their Philly-Dallas games are later. They have Philly week 11 at Philly-Dallas games are later. They have Philly week 11 at Philly, week 12 home Dallas, and then week 16 Philly, week 18 at Dallas. They should have been Philly twice last year.

And they always seem quite tough. Yeah, they like to play them, but yeah. I just, I didn't see enough talent on their side. I bet we agree on the Giants.

They're over a six and a half. I don't know why it's six and a half. I can't really come up with any reasons. Plus 116 if you want to go over minus 142 for the under. Worst record, plus 850. You could go under 4.5 wins adjusted, plus 235. Last year, 6-11.

They allowed 85 sacks. They somehow had the worst offensive line in the division when Washington's offensive line was getting their quarterbacks almost killed. They traded for Brian Burns in one of the weird trades of the year where they paid a second rounder to get him, and they could have just signed somebody in free agency if they wanted to pass rush. And they added neighbors, who I think everybody loves.

But he has a bottom three quarterback in the league. Yeah. Danny Dimes with DeVito as the backup. Still there. And they lost Barkley. I don't see any scenario where this team gets to six wins. Much less seven. We agree on this one.

Did you watch the hard knocks the Giants won? I didn't. I liked it better than the Bears one, even. I know it went back to March and everything, but you see the inner workings of the front office and everything. And it was fun how they tried desperately to trade up with the Patriots to get that. You know, I'm glad you brought this up. They wanted a quarterback.

Kyle, don't turn the TikTok camera on. I was on some threads about this because they offered the Pats first, second, and third rounders in 24. Right. But then in 25 too. Right. And that was their offer. So maybe the Pats could have even gotten like a second rounder in 26 or something.

It's a pretty big haul, man. Because you think they could have gone down to six. And let's say they took one of the left tackles latham or alt i forget who was available right it's just like all right at least now we have our franchise left tackle then they would have one of the top picks in the second round one of the top picks in the third round but then going forward for this year you'd have the giants number one pick and the giants would have taken drake may who wouldn't have been able to play this year with no offensive line right right and then you have the top three, plus the Pats were going to be bad, plus two top

picks in the second and third rounds. Like, the moral is Drake May better be fucking good because that was a lot. And you have a signed pile on that you're going to want to turn. Dude, there it is. The signed pile on is right over there. I love Drake May, but man, he better be good because that was like to be able to have two first round picks from the Giants

plus two seconds and two thirds. That's a shitload. Joe Shane, you could tell how disappointed he was when the Patriots like, no, we're good where we are. And then the whole next episode is convincing themselves that Danny Dimes was their man all along. Yeah, he did it two years ago. That's what I love most about it. But yeah, you're right. I mean, Dable man all along. That Danny Dimes, yeah, he did it two years ago.

That's what I love most about it. But yeah, you're right. I mean, Dable lost 50 pounds. That's good. Now he did it. I don't, some people I just like when, I liked heavier Dable. I don't like skinnier Dable. Yeah, I thought he, I just liked when he was angry and fat. Yeah, the main thing though, I really do think he's going to be terrific.

Like I'm in, I'm all in. But it did make me blink. It's a lot. It's a lot they're passing up. But yeah, you're right. I don't know if I'm the last holdout with the Danny Dimes. I don't think that he's good, but I did want to blame the offensive line more than normal because it was so atrocious for so many years.

And that's why the neighbors pick was kind of a waste, I think. They don't know what they're doing, the Giants. Yeah, that's part of it, too. That's at least a big part of it. What is your favorite prop from the NFC East? Cowboys' highest scoring team, 10-1. I won with it last year. Oh, wow.

They hit last year. Won with it last year. So the case for They hit last year. Won with it last year. So the case for it is they play the Giants in Washington four times, which might be two of the worst defenses in the league. Right. I actually looked at that. They got like 170 points from those four games, I think, or 172. That was the first game.

Crazy. Yeah. Yeah. In the 40s. Yeah. I think there's only like three or four teams that can win this. So they get 10-1. Wow.

So this is going to be a bigger fantasy year for Rico Dowdle and Dalvin, Dalvin cook. Then I thought, and Zeke Elliott would kill for Dalvin cook. You would kill for him. What other 2018 running backs can you get? Why do you care about running? Can you get Tomlinson?

What's he doing? You know, our, um, our concession stand guy is new too. I mean, I, what,

what, what do you care? What do you care about running backs? Yeah, they never mattered. Who needs running backs? They have mattered. They don't anymore.

Who needs anybody in a third and three? All right. We, my favorite prop of all these props is Giants under four and F wins

plus 235. Raheem has been on this for a couple years that the alt-unders and the alt-overs, if you like a team, really like them. If you really don't like a team, really don't like them. And just get 2-1 or 3-1 odds

on it versus just like banging. I have a couple more later that qualify that too, but I don't see it. The Giants fans hate Danny Dimes. They're going to have no running game at all. And neighbors by week five, if he's even still playing, because God only knows, Dimes sends one over the middle. Here's another one, because you brought it up earlier.

Plus 12 turnover ratio. That's probably not going to continue for the Giants. Another reason they should be bad. Well, we're not aligned again. We only have three divisions left to find some common ground. We're going to take a break. Football's back. No better place to get in on the NFL action

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Moving on to the NFC North, leading with the Detroit Lions. Their over-under is 10.5. Juice on that, minus 132 there. Plus 130 to win the division, which is kind of shocking because I thought they'd be a minus. Plus 550 for the conference.

12-1 for Super Bowl. Plus 480 for the number one seed. Plus 950 for best record. If you want to go 12-plus wins, plus 15 best record if you want to go 12 plus wins plus 152 if you want to go 13 plus wins plus 240 they were 12 and 5 last year look at all the bold wow look how much I love the Lions me too um this is bad I mean we could disagree on everything except I think we have the Lions winning the next six Super Bowls or something so are the Lions better than last year when they were 12-5? I would argue yes.

Laporta healthy. Laporta missed a big chunk of the middle. What did he miss? A couple games. He was playing hurt. I forget, but now he's healthy. Gibbs is back. They signed DJ Reader.

They tried to beef up the D-backs, drafted some cornerbacks, and just really tried to take care of that-backs, drafted some cornerbacks, and just really tried to take care of that. Not a lot of weaknesses. And then on top of it, 14 out of 17 indoors. They played three outdoors games. And only two cold weather.

It's all lined up for them. You go, and then I'll go. All right. Well, they were 12-5 last year. And some people think they should be 13-4. I guess there was some shenanigans in that Cowboys game. I don't remember it. The game you cheated on? I don't remember it, but let's give them.

I mean, if they won 13 and it's 10-1⁄2, you're really going to think they're regressing, and I don't think they are. I think Campbell's team is built perfectly, right? So when you put the ball on the field, it might be different. But you said they had only those two cold weather games. They start Rams, Tampa Bay, at Arizona, Seattle. I don't think you have it written down,

but the last undefeated team, I think it's like 7-1 or something. I looked at that one. I like the Lions there. 5-1 in primetime last year. They're not afraid of anyone, like any situation. Goff is still going to be underrated. Like you said in prime time last year. They're not afraid of anyone in any situation. Goff is still going to be underrated. Like you said, they improved the secondary.

I just like this team a lot. I really do. They got the Alabama kid. They traded up in the first round. Sewell's a top offensive lineman. Agnell's a top center. They bring Zyler in. Top 12 guard. Yeah, I had their O-line rank as top 5 O-line.

And I think that's... Do you have them go in the Super Bowl? Because I do. So I did some research on this. I was trying to find some Lions doppelgangers in the 2024 Lions because they went 12 and five. They had a three-win jump from the year before.

They won two playoff rounds and then they lost the conference title game to San Francisco. Stupid. Josh Reynolds. 34 to 31. So it came close. Two ounces away.

So are there other teams that fit that profile? The 2019 Chiefs went 12 and four plus two. They were one seed. Lost that stupid game to the Pats,

the D4 game. The next year, 12 and four, two seed, won the Super Bowl. So there's one. The 2012 Seahawks first year of Russell, Hustle, and Bustle, 11-5, plus four wins that year.

Five seed, lost that tough one in round two to Atlanta where they took the lead and then Atlanta hit the field goal at the end. Next year, 13-3, one seed, won the Super Bowl. Year before, San Francisco, 13-3, the first hardball year, plus five. Two seed, lost that really tough game in round two to the Giants by three. Next year, 11-4-1, two seed, lost the Super Bowl to Baltimore, the game we went to, the blackout game. They were down three, inside the five.

So they were right there, but they were right there. And then the last one I had this is a weird one but the 05 Bears 11-5 plus 6 two seed lost to Carolina in round two like that crazy game

29-21 I think we won money on it and then the next year 13-3 one seed lost the Super Bowl to Indy 17-29

because they lost they put their score first but so the case would be the teams that. You did your homework. The teams that jumped. Yeah. And then had a tough playoff loss, but not too damaging.

And then came back strong. And not a Super Bowl loss. Because the Super Bowl loss. And not a Super Bowl loss because that's a different category. But they got the taste. But now they're. Right. I have them winning everything.

And the play. The whole thing. I think they win the Super Bowl. Interesting. I have the Bills over the taste, but now they're... Right. I have them winning everything. And the play, the whole thing. I think they win the Super Bowl. Interesting. I have the Bills over the Lions, but... I have the Lions over the Houston Texans in the Super Bowl. It's my Super Bowl pick. That's great.

I love it. Everything went their way. Even Ben Johnson staying. Their offensive coordinator, who did a great job and it's like well they're definitely going to lose him oh that'll suck

they're going to lose him and Aaron Glenn guess what they didn't lose either of them they kept their awesome coordinators so you have them and Campbell

this is probably a top four coaching staff situation I think they have the fewest holes that's the thing that's what I kept coming back to

what do you want to do and they can score. And then Gardner, Johnson, they lose. That's fine. And then what if Jamison Williams is good? Right. Very solid. So, I'm all in.

I love the only thing that worries me about this team is just that Green Bay is in the same division and whatever Green Bay's ceiling is. But we're going to know pretty early because they have the Rams at home on a Sunday night. Home Tampa, at Arizona, and then home Seattle heading into a Sunday night. Home Tampa. At Arizona. And then home Seattle. Heading into a bye. That feels like 4-0. Yep.

At Dallas, week five. That'll be the game of the week. At Minnesota. Home Tennessee. Possible 7-0 heading into at Green Bay at Houston week nine, week 10. And I think there's a chance they're 7-0 heading into those games. I love it. So to your point about the Lions, the last undefeated bet, they had the best odds on Fando, plus 650.

Niners are plus 750. Eagles, 10-1. Chiefs, 10-1. Miami, 12-1. Bengals, 14-1. Still good. I'm just typing that down. Jump on that.

That's a great one. Let's get on a flight to Arizona. Lions. Put that in. You know the other thing thing i was trying to think as you know i've said it before in the pot i'm a narrative guy oh yeah it's the most fun if the lions are really good and actually have a chance to win the super bowl it'd be fucking amazing they haven't won anything since 1957 it's kind of why i put the bills on the other side so it's

like a no no no see this That's some crafty handicapping. I'm not a narrative guy. I would never say that. But maybe you are deep down a narrative guy. One of my good friends is a narrative guy. So I've learned a lot about narratives. So Lions Bills. Yeah.

Three. We almost got it last year. Lions Bills, like four weeks after the new president takes office, it feels like this could be the end of the world. That could be it.

That's it? I'm going to buy some soup today. Soup and some Chef Bayardee raviolis that last for three years. Well, we better bet that to win if it's going to be

the end of the world. Hold on to your fucking seats. Lions-Bills. I wish I had picked that. I have Lions-Texans that'll probably end up being Lions-Chiefs. But yeah, I think this Lions team's really good.

And honestly, they probably could have won the Super Bowl last year. Yeah. If they somehow steal that Niners game. Josh Reynolds. Yeah. Ridiculous. All right, let's talk Green Bay. Overs, 9.5 wins.

The most suspicious over under on either side of the conference. I have no idea. Why isn't this ten and a half? Vegas zone. Last year they started two and five and then they went seven and three down the stretch finished nine and eight. That includes one of the worst losses of the year, that Bryce Young game that I think all of us got

annihilated. It was the one good Panthers game. Some of their odds, plus 200 for the division, plus 800 for the conference, minus 158 for the playoffs, which feels like that's a nice one to throw in a parlay

with somebody else. I find it hard to believe they wouldn't be a playoff team. You can go 12 plus wins for plus 250. Last year, they beat Dallas in round one, lost in round two

to San Francisco by three a game. They probably should have won. They're better at safety. They signed McKinney. They drafted a couple people. New defensive coordinator. They're going to have better injury luck. The injury luck was terrible last year. It's a young team that has a lot of talent. They did lose Aaron Jones. They added Josh Jacobs, but, uh, very young. I think there's

seven receivers make as much as a CD land. And I think they have the most popular four person wide receiver core. Most popular? Well, just like people are in on the Packers receivers, Watson and Dobbs and Wicks, and people like, they like those dudes. The case against them is everybody likes them. And that's really it. That's it.

It's like, it seems too easy. They played so good. It was so hard to get an interception out of that guy last year. I think it was like 18 touchdowns, one interception over his last seven games. But I do want to say this. October 29th, 2023, the Vikings beat them 24-10. Love is 24 for 41. It was one of those games where he threw one interception but could have had four.

What were the live odds on Jordan Love becoming the highest paid player in football history six months later? Yeah. Yes. From there. Like, he's good, and I like this team, and I'm betting them over,

but how many games do you have to win to be the highest paid in history? He won 10 games. Can you win five games and be the highest paid ever? He was really good. It's very ever? I know it's very strange. I don't see a lot of holes either. They start in Brazil against Philly, Indy, at Tennessee

and Minnesota. Can I test drive a theory for you about that Brazil game? Sure. And I was thinking of doing this for the Tuesday pod before the season starts. Because you know in fantasy we had the D&D do not draft list. Yeah. I'm going to, I think I'm going to do like a little mini manifesto for myself of just

things I'm not allowing myself to do this year. And one of them is to just not bet on any of the overseas games. Oh. Brazil, London, Germany. I think I'm just out. I think it's too random. Too many weird things happen. I never feel good about it.

The time zone and something's always weird about it. And I'm never like, oh man, I'm so glad I bet that London game. That was so much fun. It's never fun. It always sucks. It's always weird. And I might just be out.

You don't like this because you'll bet on anything. No, I have to. You were betting on Korean tennis this summer. How dare you? You weren't betting on Korean tennis? Korean Little League team, but no, not tennis, no. Why don't we, we kind of did this with the Thursday night games, right? Right.

Not out-out, but not betting. The only thing, where I settled on those Thursday games was putting them in kind of mild teases to try to get a jump on the week, but not to have too much on it because they're too stupid. Remember that one game when Fields just went bonkers? There was one Thursday night game. It was like Fields' best game of the year.

He just looked like he was Lamar crossed with Josh Allen. Yeah, there's a million examples. And that seems to happen like eight times a year on Thursday night where just one team or the other just doesn't show up. But that's my point. I think the Thursday nights are more wonky than the, at least everybody's on regular rest. That might have been my next manifesto thing is

I might be out on Thursday nights unless it's like some sort of tease situation. That's fine because it's three days rest. That makes sense. But I don't know. And I don't think I'm not betting anyone after their biggest win of the year anymore. Yeah. When somebody goes in, it's like, oh, my God. And they're doing the interviews.

I'm out. I'm not betting them. You have to. I'm going to make a list. I do think, though, it's overstated with the flying overseas and everything. Because the planes are super nice. The only thing I take from Philly flying to Brazil is Jalen Hurst is definitely getting a nap on a Tuesday. What's wrong with that?

Like, he's definitely going to sleep on the plane for a few hours. So, it's not a negative. Yeah, they're in these massive charter planes. So, this is an interesting one because Green Bay in week one, that Brazil game, on a Friday night. So, there's all kinds of reasons not to bet it. And I know I'm going to bet it, but I do feel like that's going to be the, usually the overreaction games on a Sunday. And when we do the pot on Sunday nights and it's like, Oh, here's the overreaction game. This happened. And do we believe in this or not? It's going to

be on a Friday this year because whoever loses that game is going to be the overreaction team. Right. If Green Bay loses like, Oh, told you young team, is going to be the overreaction team, right? If Green Bay loses, it's like, oh, told you. Young team, not going to happen. And same for Philly if Philly blows it.

And it's probably not going to be close, right? Which will lend more to it. Yeah, it'll be like 38 to 10. Yeah, yeah,

yeah. That's what we should do. Minus nine and a half both ways. They have a couple hard stretches in their schedule that made me nervous too.

Like they have, they have four prime time in a row starting well they have week seven week eight week nine houston at jacksonville home detroit i don't love that but then they go week 11 at chicago home san fran thursday night home miami thursday night at detroit sunday at seattle monday night home New Orleans. That's fucking weird. Like they don't play a normal Sunday afternoon game for five weeks.

Yeah. It's a lot for this kid. I don't like it. I mean, he's the highest paid in the history of sports. He should be able to turn it around. I didn't mind who they lost in free agency.

Aaron Jones, Savage. And they really did. They needed a better defensive coordinator. So they did that. I'm just writing down Locke for that. I'm locking in Green Bay over nine and a half. Okay.

Chicago. Sexy. A sexy over pick. Over is eight and a half wins. So much juice on that. It's minus 160, which I think is the most juice of any of these overs. Sounds right.

Division plus 340, playoffs plus 104. You could go 11 plus wins plus 210. You can zag the other way, do under six and a half wins plus 320. They added Caleb Williams. And they added the first and ninth picks in the draft, the Dunesay and Caleb.

Sure. They added Keenan Allen. They have three really, high-end receivers running backs are worse pass rush 100 worse and so is their pass rush no doubt offensive line not great i couldn't get there you went under under. Yeah, I went under. Wow. We must be the only ones. We agree. Too many people on it.

It's a fixed line, boy. And I'll take the plus money all the time. Totally. Right? I mean, when was the last time a rookie quarterback was expected to be over 500 or make the playoffs? What'd you say to make the playoffs was, even? Yeah, pretty much. Yeah. I don't see it. He could was even? Yeah, pretty much. Yeah.

I, I, I don't see it. He could be eight and nine and have a good year. Right. And they have, they have the first half is kind of easy. Yeah. But then that all of a sudden, like from week 13 on at Detroit on a Thursday night at San Fran at Minnesota on a Monday night, three weeks in a row, right. As the QB hitting the rookie wall part of the season. Home Detroit right after that.

Home Seattle on a Thursday. So they go home Detroit, home Seattle four days later. And then they finish at Green Bay. That's a fucking gauntlet. I mean, that feels like one in five to me. So they would have to be. Six of final eight against a division. Yeah, that's a lot to ask.

And then they have some other, like, all of their road games at Houston, at Indy. They're playing the Jaguars in London, at Arizona. I don't see it. For them to go 9-8, I would be really impressed. I really wanted to get there with them because I needed a new playoff team and I just couldn't.

Yeah, new offensive, new defensive coordinator. Just a lot of new pieces coming in and out. And I don't think they're ready. The fans are more excited than the team's going to be good, I think. Right. And what do we know about Eberflus? What have we seen that got anyone excited? He's okay.

I don't know. I think like... He seems like he's fine. If you want to talk about... I think here's a better bet. For him to win coach of the year is 10 to 1. Because if they make the playoffs, which you get for even odds yeah whatever but abr flus they make the playoffs i think he's gonna win coach of the year and he'll have gone from three wins to seven wins right to

10 or whatever 11 so um that to me is a better bet if you're pro bears but i'm just not i loved uh jim harbaugh at 10-1. They're both 10-1, right? Yeah. Because that's like, if the Chargers make the playoffs, he's winning the work. It's a wrap. Minnesota is 7.5, plus 134 if you want to go over on that.

They're begging you to do it. They're under for 7.5 is minus 168, which I think is the highest juice on and under. Worst under 5.5 wins is plus 176 if you want to do that. Worst record is 13-1. So they added Aaron Jones. That's a positive because their running backs were bad last year. By the way, the case on your doesn't matter if you have good running backs.

Look at Minnesota's running backs last year. They were awful. They killed them. Here's how they're worse. They had that Jordan Addison DUI thing that he might even get suspended during the season yeah terrible terrible cornerbacks

like the probably the worst cornerback situation in the conference and then you know they drafted J.J. McCarthy with a top 10 pick and

I like the pick and it seems like he was doing well but he got hurt so now you're getting nothing you have this season where you get a top 10 pick you get nothing from it I don't like that I like the pick, and it seems like he was doing well, but he got hurt. So now you're getting nothing. You have this season where you get a top-ten pick, you get nothing from it.

I don't like that. And their quarterback is Sam Darnold, who's just not good at football. So to me, this is an easy under. I mean, the off-season mojo, McCarthy injury, their third-round pick died. They had two DUIs, one for Addison, one for one of the coaches they had a torn acl for offensive lineman even this like brian flores stuff like the last couple of weeks like just weird stuff cursed all over the place which is weird because two years ago they won every one score game with cousins so you would think the curse was going to move around this is

just a lot to overcome i don't know why you you'd be expected to get them to eight games, which is plus money if you go over. Yeah, that makes sense. Plus 134 for eight. Yeah, I'm going under here. They also led in forced fumbles last year, something that goes back and forth every year. And they call Kevin O'Connell KOC.

I don't know if you're all right with that. Do they really? They do. Yeah, we learned. Tate and I talked about that. Fucking bullshit. Yeah, I know. You got to call that out.

They have played London Jets in London, which is considered a home game. Would you say their first seven? Because they got that Giants. They're at the Giants week one. Yeah. But then they're home San Fran, home Houston.

Then they're at Green Bay. Then they have to play the Jets in London. They get a bye week. And then they're home San Fran, home Houston. Then they're at Green Bay. Then they have to play the Jets in London. They get a bye week. And then they have to play home Detroit at the Rams. That could be either 0-7 or 1-6. I'm going to recommend something. That Giants-Vikings game, whoever loses that could be the last winless team. So jump on that.

I think that's also around 10-1. Someone there? Giants-Vikings? I'm going to look that up while you give us your best NFC North prop. winless team. So jump on that. I think that's also around 10 to one. Someone there. Giants. I'm going to look that up while you give us your best NFC North prop. All right. Well, it's bears,

no playoffs. It's not fun, but it's a minus one 28 bears, no playoffs. I just think there's more, more in that division and offer. I don't think there's going to be three, but I do like our first to four. That's my favorite first to four in that division.

Lions, Packers. Oh, that's our favorite bet. That's the best one. What was that? We put that on the- Six to one. Six to one. So it has to go Lions, Packers, Bears, Vikings.

Exact order, six to one. Yeah. So I'm not as confident in a one or four in any other division. I love the Lions coming first. Love the Vikings coming fourth. If you want to flip-flop the Bears and Packers, I don't recommend it, but I think that's seven to one. So if you want to hit both of those.

And you, me, and Sal. I'm Sal. You're Sal. Yeah. He's a narrative guy. He's not a name guy. You, me, and House and Hench. Yeah.

We all jumped on that. We did Detroit for the Hench. Yeah. We all jumped on that. We did Detroit for the one seed. Yeah. That was five to one. We did a group bet on that. We've done pretty well on those group bets. Yeah. I'm fine with loading up on Detroit because I think it's Super Bowl or bust for them,

and I think they're ready for it. So, okay. Last one on this team, by the way. New England, five to one. Tennessee, plus 750. Carolina, plus 8 way. New England 5-1. Tennessee plus 750. Carolina plus 850. And Minnesota is plus 950. There's a lot of options.

I don't think any of them are going to win only two games, but I think everyone's going to be right around that four win. You might be onto something with that Minnesota idea because if they lose that Giants game. Go get it. They're not winning another game until week nine in Indianapolis. Tough quarterbacks. Yeah, they're not favored remotely in any of those games.

That's a good one. Plus 950. All right, we're going to take a break. At Wealthsimple, we're built for whatever you're building. Built for Jane, who wants to break into the housing market. We're built for Ted, who's obsessed with what's happening in the global markets. And built for Celine, who just wants to retire and explore the world's flea markets. So take a moment and think about what you're building for.

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advisor to learn more. All right, it's time for the NFC South. Sal, I have an announcement. The NFC South is back. Oh, you love this division. I forgot. It's back. It's so bad. This is an absolute all-timer of a train wreck. So least wins by a division the last five years. Last year, NFC South, 27. Year before, 2022, AFC South, 23. 21 was AFC South, 28, which is pretty high, actually. 2020, NFC East, 23.

In 2019, NFC East, 24. So the lowest number is 23 wins for a division. And I think it could be in play with the NFC South. I'll do you one better or the same. This will be, if there's no 10-win team, this will be the first time a division failed to produce a double-digit-win team three years in a row in the history of football. Wow.

I mean, the bigger question is, could it produce a nine-win team? Yeah. We might have four under 500 teams. So the first one is Atlanta. Atlanta's favored to win the division at minus 145, and that's moved up, right? Wasn't it? I think New Orleans was a little friskier before people realized that.

I can't wait to talk about that. Well, they got Judon. They added a couple pieces. So their over is nine and a half wins, minus 142. They're 11-1 for the conference. They were 7-10 last year. And if you want to get frisky,

12 plus wins is plus 240. New coach, Raheem Morris. So, they do qualify for the new coach theory. They also qualify for the new quarterback theory. Yeah. Because they went from Desmond Ritter They also qualify for the new quarterback theory. Yeah. Cause they went from a Desmond Ritter was cut today. Yeah. Cut today.

Yeah. So that's the thing with the Falcons and jets, the teams, they had a quarter, the guys that had a quarterback last year, either cut or third string. That's how bad it was. Uh,

we'll see with cousins, how he's moving. They added Simmons and they added Jude on. If you're going to ding them on anything, they got nothing from the 24 draft. They spent the eighth pick on Pennix, got nothing out of it, unless Cousins gets hurt, and their third round

linebacker is out for the year. Out of their draft where they had top eight picks in every round, they only ended up with one guy. What do they call, not the Milton Berle and just pull out enough to win, but I feel like they're just toying with everything. Like, yeah, we got this division.

We don't even need a quarterback. We'll draft Pennix. Right. We'll whatever. We don't care about any of this stuff. We know we only have to win eight games to win and take it. So we have, this is something we talked about with Raheem and JJ and House on our Wise Guys thread. They're minus 14 45 for the division,

but it doesn't make sense to bet that until week four, right? Because they start Pittsburgh, which might have the best division in the whole league and the best defense in the whole league is we covered in the part one at Philly and then Sunday night Casey could be on three. They could be one and two or on three coming out of that. And then it gets fucking easy.

They have a really easy stretch from week four to week seven, week 11 and week 18 is a cakewalk. mean it's a fucking cakewalk they play nobody they have the easiest schedule in the league yep so after that first three weeks we would recommend that's when you bet that's what you're doing you'll probably if they're one and two you'll get at least even odds right probably maybe 150 depending on what the other teams are but you're right fandle has 13 teams projected under eight wins. Atlanta plays eight of them. Unbelievable. And so many bad quarterbacks.

Name a bad quarterback. Atlanta's probably playing them. So I'm going under. Nine and a half wins is too rich for my blood. I don't think they can get to 10. They feel like nine and eight, eight, nine, and that's still going to win the division. It might even be a case where in week 17, week 18,

they might have won the division already. They're locked into the four seed and it's like, let's play Michael Penix for two games. Or, you know, they're playing. They're going to lose stupid games along the way. But nine and eight is, like I said, plenty, I think. Really good offensive line. Bijan Robinson, who's going to be the second running back

taken in any fantasy draft. And then we'll see with Cousins. I am a little dubious of Cousins. And I took Rodgers as well as these older guys coming off in Achilles. I never loved Cousins that much to begin with. But Cousins had, before he got injured, had 18 touchdown passes. It was the most in the league. Yeah.

So. Remember we were talking about how the Netflix show kind of gave them a new mojo? Yeah, so we're going under with Atlanta and picking them to win the division. I think that's a first for the over-unders. Next one is Tampa. Tampa over 7.5 wins.

Juice on that. Minus 150. Plus 290 for the division. Plus 152 to make the playoffs. Last year they were nine and eight. They beat Philadelphia and then they lost in round two to Detroit in a very, very, very close game. They lost Shaq Barrett and Devin White. They lost their offensive coordinators, now the Carolina coach.

Their offensive line is a little better. For the most part, it's a team that overachieved last year in a division that wasn't good. And now the schedule, which from week two to ten, is among the toughest stretches of any team in there. They play Washington week one. I couldn't get to eight wins with them. I have them under seven and a half.

I think I have them at eight. Oh, no, I have them. Yeah, I do have them at eight. So you have them all over here. They're such a weird team, aren't they? You look at them. Why should they have won nine games last year?

And why should they have beaten the Eagles and been a couple of plays away from beating Detroit? And they kind of have these same guys, you know, they tag Antoine Winfield. Yeah. They re-sign Levante Davis. It's all the same.

They re-sign Mike Evans. Will Golston, Evans. They give Baker a hundred million dollars. And then it's like, well, maybe he is a top 17, 16 quarterback in the league to make the playoffs right there.

I don't know what the defense will look like. They gave up 260 yards passing, which was the most last year per team. But then they held the Eagles to nine points. So it's so strange, but you're right. They face all four conference championship participants. So it's a tough one. For the listeners, they're at Detroit, home Philly, at Atlanta, home Baltimore, home Atlanta, at KC, home San Francisco.

That's all in the first 10 weeks. And then later they're at the Chargers and they're at Dallas. They have four primetime games. I don't know why, but they do. Somehow their schedule is way harder than Atlanta's, and it doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Also, they don't have a ton of talent. I'm under for them, and I'm under for this next team,

New Orleans, over 7.5 wins, pretty fair odds, minus 122. So you're under everyone in the division? Well, we'll get there. You're going to go over Carolina? So far, I have three unders in a row. pretty fair odds minus 122 you're under everyone in division well we'll get there so far I have three unders in a row under 6.5 wins Alt is plus 184 under 5.5 wins Alt is plus 320

this is my favorite bad team to go against I think they're going to be an absolute train wreck this combo of Dennis Allen, who has the best, worst coach fired odds, or first coach fired odds,

I think he's three to one. Derek Carr, I was talking to somebody from New Orleans who lives there. Do you realize how unpopular Derek Carr is with New Orleans fans?

Like, he's like public enemy number one. They can't stand him. So their home games, like they play their first game of the year is home for Carolina, right? And he's like public enemy number one they can't stand him right so their home games like they play their first game of the year is at carolina is home for carolina right and it's like oh we'll chalk that they're one to know if they fall down three nothing and he throws a pick they're gonna be booing the whole fucking game right like they hate their car so you have that and then you have dennis allen whose first coach fired odds are 7-1.

So they brought back a coach QB combo that doesn't work. They lost Ramzak, but they spent their 14th pick on a tackle to try to replace him. Dennis Allen, career record 24-46. He's 22-49 versus the spread. I just think they're going to be awful. Yeah, but they were, they were this last year and they were nine and eight. Right. And so I have them over. I get them. I would not put a single dollar on this because you're right. I think the analysis starts and ends with Dennis Allen, Derek Carr combo. And I don't even care what the other combinations are for

quarterback coach in a division. Did I call him Dennis Allen or Dennis Quinn combo, and I don't even care what the other combinations are for a quarterback coach in a division. Did I call him Dennis Allen or Dennis Quinn? Keep it either way. I called him Dennis Allen, right? I thought about calling him Dennis Quinn. Who's Dennis Quinn? You're thinking Dan Quinn. But there's buzz around this Clint Kubiak,

the 49ers passing coach, who's gotten along well with Carr, so maybe things are a little different. They have the third easiest schedule. They played one projected playoff team in the last six games. And they start Carolina at Atlanta, Dallas, and Philly. I don't know. I just feel like if you're not Carolina, you have a decent chance to get to eight wins.

That's the other way to look at it. Well, they drafted Kool-Aid, people like him. Cam Jordan's healthy. They added Chase Young. We'll see how many games he plays. Right. He needs to kind of be great early, Chase Young. They finally said goodbye to Michael Thomas.

Maybe they'll be all right. I'm going hard under. I'm intrigued by the under 5.5 wins plus 320. And I think they're going to suck. And I also think this next team's going to suck. My fourth under in a row. That's right. I did the quadruple under.

Can you do that for the division? Yeah, you're damn right I can do it. Because if you add up, so Carolina 5.5, New Orleans 7.5, so we're at 13. Tampa is 7.5, so now we're at 20.5. And then Atlanta is 9.5, so it it's 30. So it's 31 wins. Vegas is saying the over under for this thing is 31 wins. I just read you all those stats.

We've gone as low as 23, 24 wins in a division. I just think we're going under with everybody. Let me ask him. Did you add up your wins and losses for? I don't. I think that's psychotic. Well, you're not a serious person. No, that's not psychotic.

That has to add up. You can't have 20 more wins than losses. No, but I think this division is going to be the punching bag for everybody. Yeah, it always is. That's where we're going. So let's say Atlanta wins eight. I have them under two. I'll give you Atlanta nine and eight.

I'll give you Tampa seven and ten. So now I'm at 16 wins. I'm going to give you New Orleans five wins. I'm at 16 wins. I'm going to give you New Orleans 5 wins. I'm at 21. And I'm going to give you Carolina 3 wins. 24 wins for the division. I'm calling it now. Bill Stradamus.

24 wins for the NFC South. Mark it down. I said Fando made that a bet. Look at the other conferences too. Exact wins for a division. New bet. Fando's never thought of that. You can do exact wins. Oh, for a division. I bet. Fando's never thought of that. You could do exact wins.

For a division. I know, you could do it for each team. The NFC South will win 24 games. Wow. And so three years in a row, under 10. Yeah. I'm with you. I don't... Well, here's the good news. New Orleans is going to be awful. Here's the good news with the Panthers. They may get to keep their number one pick

this year. Like, they could have the worst record. Last year, they didn't get to pick it. They had to give it up. Well, Panthers over under is five and a half. Yeah. Worst record is seven to one. Under three and a half wins.

Alt is plus three 40. If you want to get frisky last year, they were two and 15. And the only case for them winning more than two games is because the rest of the division is so bad. They have new coach Dave Canales that nobody seems to believe they hired. He bounced around and was offensive coordinator

for Tampa. It was like, cool, okay. They spent money on the O-line. They drafted a receiver. They traded for Deontay Johnson. They drafted Leggett. They added Clowney, which feels like a trade piece in week seven. Clowney for Burns, basically. Yeah, they lost Burns.

They lost Lubo. And you made the key point. The Bryce trade just depleted their picks. Yeah. They took all this draft capital, and it just moved to Bryce Young, a guy that we don't even know if he's a starting quarterback or not. This is a historically bad team. They've averaged five wins the last six seasons.

And they're paying three coaches. They're paying three coaches. And they saved the Bears. The Bears were... Right. Nobody was more bummed out than Bears fans. They single-handedly rejuvenated an entire city. And poor Bryce Young.

I mean, he was sacked. You said they spent a lot of money on offensive line. 65 sacks last year. Yeah, and a 33 quarterback rating. I just don't see it for them. They have zero primetime games. No one's expecting anything. Yeah.

This Jonathan Brooks is already a little banged up there, the running back from Texas. I wonder if that's the want game for week one, though. Carolina at New Orleans. At New Orleans, yeah. And it's like, Carr picks six. Mm-hmm. Boo!

Right. Shot at Dennis Allen. Announcers talking about, well, you know, Derek Carr, not exactly Mr. Popularity around here, but his teammates like him.

Hot seat. Yeah. Hot seat Carr. And then Dennis Allen, split screen of the two of them on the sidelines. Bryce Young, some fever.

Carolina's 1-0 and then they don't win again for a month. Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. Like, how do you go over 5-1 when they're not going to be favored in any game? Are they favored? Maybe home for Arizona, maybe their favorite. Anyone who thinks they're going to win six games is a lunatic. Okay. You don't think they're going to win six, do you?

No. No, I got them under. Somebody's like, you know who I think could go 6-11? Carolina. No. It's like i got them under yeah somebody's like you know i think it would win go 6 and 11 carolina no it's like why don't go against us what's our record when we agree yeah that right 25 and 12 they traded dj moore the ninth pick of last year's draft jaylen carter the 61st pick of last year's draft caleb Williams, and a 20-25 second for Bryce. That is just a catastrophe. It's so bad. It's a tough franchise.

It's right there. I know, with the Vikings. Four-unders. I also, in my rankings, I only had them with two chip guys, Brown and Horn. It's like a pink chipper. Yeah. So there you go.

The NFC South. I'm going under across the board. 24 wins, Sal. So nobody has to win the division. You have the Falcons winning now. Maybe 8-9. They might Milton Berle and be like, ah, we only need eight wins for this.

It's so crazy. Yeah. But you're right. Wait on them because they might have a bad record after the first three. I have an interesting prop. Fandle is all over this stuff, I have to say. And it's not just because they pay us in flavored seltzer.

LaCroix. Chris Lindstrom, first team, all pro guard, plus 235. They have all pro odds. Look at these. What the hell? You're going to love it. You're going to love this. All pro bets?

All pro first team. Christmas. Go get it, Simmons. Who are the receivers? You're going to love it. You're going to love this. All pro first team. It's like Christmas. Go get it, Simmons. Who are the receivers? I have to look now, but I mean, Tyreek Hill obviously is a fan. I don't think that. I think you're making this up. Did I make that up?

No, no. It's there. You're making this up. What? It was there yesterday. What state are you in? No, you missed it. I'm in the state of California. No, yesterday. What state are you in? You missed it. I'm in the state of California. No, no. What state are you looking at?

What is it? I always do Massachusetts so I can see my bets. Massachusetts? Yeah. Wait a minute. I'm not an idiot. All right. I believe you. I swear. I believe you. We don't have to argue about it. My favorite prop is, God, so many for this division.

Now I'm mad mad I can't find this. This is a bummer. Oh, man. My favorite prop is the one I'm going to make FanDuel create, the over-under of wins for this division. And I'm going to make them boost it, and we'll go under. Well, just bet all four under. Yeah, but that's fine.

Yeah, but let's do, maybe the over-under is even higher than I thought. Maybe it's like 20, maybe they'll make it 31 and a half for the division. No, well, so it's fine. Do an all-under. Let's add. So it's five and a half, it's seven and a half.

I did that already. It added up to 31. Okay, sorry. 20. Yeah. I don't think it did. Did it? Did it?

Seven and a half, five and a half. Yeah. Oh, all right. People get to hear us do math i like it two middle-aged guys do math here in the bs podcast i'm not narrative i'm not math but i know the cowboys win division we're gonna take a break and do uh the nfc west y'all afraid of ghosts how about ghost peppers It's the moment you've been waiting for. The ghost pepper sandwich is back at Popeye's. A buttermilk-battered chicken breast served on a brioche bun with barrel-cured pickles.

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All right, the NFC West. We did the least wins last five years by division. Here are the most. Last year, AFC North 43. Year before, NFC East 43. NFC West 40. AFC North 38. NFC West 38.

So last two years, 43. This is my number one division. I like all the teams in it. Yeah. I think there's going to be wins coming out of it. And you like to take your team out of it. If you can only watch games from any division. Well,

we have an attachment to this division because we, they just fuck us over and over again with the schedule. It's just a fuck job. Detachment. Yeah. We've 11 early games and two late games. So it's like, all right,

Arizona and the Rams. I guess I'm going to study every play of this. But I do feel like we watch a lot of this. And I enjoy every team in this division. Don't you? I do. I think I'd go AFC North, though, if I had to not watch the Cowboys and just watch every...

Yeah, but the AFC North has Deshaun. And I don't want to watch Cleveland. I just don't want to watch Cleveland's offense. Okay. And I'm not sure I want to watch Pittsburgh's offense either. No, I not their defense. So, we're going to start

with San Francisco. Their over is 11 and a half plus 126. They're begging you to try to go 12 wins for them. Minus 158

if you want to go under. They are minus 190 for the division. They are one seed plus 490. Best record 9 to 1. If you want to get super crazy and go alt-under 8.5, say they're going to have a losing record for the year, that's plus 360.

If you want to go the other way and say they're going to win 13 games or more, that's plus 235. Last year, they were 12-5. They won two playoff games and then lost in the Super Bowl in overtime. And the Super Bowl hangover is real, Sal. I believe it. I'm under. Me too.

And it's really Super Bowl hangover. IU called out. McCaffrey heard already. Trent Williams hold out. Stolen McCaffrey. And Debo, who really hasn't been like a super-duper impact guy in two years. And Purdy with some weird preseason stuff already and some picks and some

and I don't like the Vox. They need too many good guys to be good to get to where they are. I know that wasn't eloquent at all. No, I know what you mean. They lose Chase Young. They lose Eric Armstead. They lose Eric Kendrick, Ken Law, Joseph Day. I think that calf injury is a real thing

for McCaffrey. I'm staying away from it in any fantasy league. I'm not just saying that so that people on their bid. And yeah, you know, calves and hamstrings are terrifying. Yeah, no good. Because it seems like they're coming back and they just don't for another month. And Trent Williams just seems to always hold out. And so this is a, this is an issue for them.

They have one of the worst rest schedules, I think, in the league. Minus 21. If not number one. Yeah, I read that down. And Hufang is coming back, but might not be 100%, probably until like week five, week six. Greenlaw's coming back. They face all three teams they met in the postseason.

I think 12 is a lot. You know, you got two division losses. You got KC, Dallas, Rams, Buffalo, Chicagoago miami detroit they're not a bad team i don't think but 11 12 is too many the reasons to get excited i guess are they beeped up their pass rush a little bit um but that's really it it's the same team as last year with with a lot of salary cap decisions and probably the last year with the purdy rookie contract and being able to have that advantage. You know, it's interesting.

If they lose that Jets game on Monday night in week one, which that line's dropped now. It's plus four, and I was mad I didn't bet it at plus four and a half. But I think the Jets can go in there and win, especially with all this weird stuff with the Niners. Yeah. At Minnesota week two and then at the Rams week three. Like, there is, like, they could start out one and two

and people wondering what's going on. But then they get the Pats home, Arizona home. Yeah. There's a little bit of relief in there. A little bit later at Seattle, home KC, home Dallas week six, seven, eight. And then it gets hard again in the week 11, week 12. Yeah. Two Thursday, two Sunday, two Monday night games.

You didn't mention this. Brandon Staley is the assistant head coach now did i make you laugh do i make you laugh he's back he is back i did forget to mention that yeah they they're another one that gets super weird at the end of the year where they have like the sunday night game the thursday game the monday night game like you know and they also had that big bullseye week after week combined with the Super Bowl hangover. I hate their road games. You just go on down the line.

They're just playing some really good offenses on the road. They're at Miami. They're at Arizona. They're at Buffalo. They're at Green Bay. Even at Tampa. At Seattle. They may be able to throw at the Rams. Minnesota's the only bad road offense they're at Arizona, they're at Buffalo, they're at Green Bay, even at Tampa. At Seattle, they'll be able to throw at the Rams. Minnesota's the only bad

road offense they're going to have. Their defense also is weird. They were like third in the league in points against with 17, but they were terrible on third down. We always talked about that last year. We always thought their defense was suspect. Detroit should have beaten them. And then KC was able to move the ball on them whenever

they wanted. I had them in my player rankings. They were second. They were 38 points. And they have good players all over the place. Studs all over the place. And a great coaching staff. Should have a good pass rush, but... But we're...

Exploited this year. The McCaffrey thing is terrifying. Mm-hmm. Yeah. And I don't know where he goes in fantasy drafts, and I don't know how he affects that over, but it has to be worth two wins. So, all right, we're both under on them. Yeah. And I don't know where he goes in fantasy drafts and I don't know how he affects that over, but it has to be worth two wins. So, all right, we're both under on them, but I still think

they're probably 10 or 11 wins. Like we don't think they're worse than 10. I don't think they could be terrible. Just, just, just by the name recognition of these guys stay healthy. LA Rams over eight and a half Juice on that, minus 152. I think people just like betting overs. Division, plus 330. A little tasty if you're really excited about San Francisco not being that great. Playoffs, minus 105.

You can go 11 plus wins, plus 225. They were 10-7 last year and barely lost to Detroit in a game they easily could have won, 24-23. They signed a much better batch of defensive backs. They spent money on their offensive line, but their left tackle's out for at least week one. Yeah, Jackson. They lost Raheem Morris as defensive coordinator.

And then what was the name of that guy they had who was the best defensive frontline guy of all time what was his name uh aaron aaron rogers aaron now it was aaron aaron carter and aaron donald they lost that guy yeah he's gone he's not on the team no and they're like now we're replacing we have some young guys but it's like so that was my hesitation with them. And their schedule is really hard, and they play a bunch of awesome offenses. But I still have it over, Sal. I have it over. I think they get to 10 wins.

Coaching, quarterback, skill players, receivers. It is tough to bet against McVay. It really is. I thought they were going to be one of the worst teams last year, and they always seem to have a rookie jump out. Now, Pukunuku is a little banged up. Banged up, yeah. Stafford, too. Stafford, of the worst teams last year and they always seem to have a rookie jump out now puka nakua is a little banged up yeah stafford too stafford that was my case last year i was like this guy's got like spine surgery and everything but if he makes it you know you got your boy jimmy g as the backup but you mentioned jonah jackson's out but he gets the

most out of his players mcveigh and i do have them to win the division and what'd you say plus 330 yeah so do you wait a week on that because they're at detroit week one so maybe you wait a week and and I do have them to win the division. And what'd you say, plus 330? Yeah, so do you wait a week on that? Because they're at Detroit week one. So maybe you wait a week and then grab it. Yeah, I could wait. But then the Niners or the Jets. Right, if the Niners lose,

they might move anyway. Yeah, Michael Flohr's a new OC. Chris Shula's a new defensive coordinator. I just, I'm a McVay guy now. It was really, really tough. Me too. Last year was so inspiring. It was just give him tough. Me too. Last year was so inspiring and it was, it was just give him like

six or seven good players and somewhat of a pass rush and just be able to block a little bit. Yeah. He's fine. And one of these rookies, like I said,

always seems to step up. Jared Verst, the Florida State, the defensive end. I think that's my defensive rookie of the year pick. Ooh, I like it.

Yeah, so I'm definitely over for them. I'm intrigued by the 11 plus wins plus 225, but the juice isn't great enough. But I love the playoffs bet. The playoffs minus 105 bet. And I was trying to knock out three playoff teams

because I tried to knock out the three in the AFC, the three in the NFC. So in the AFC, I knocked out Cleveland, Buffalo, and Miami. Those are my three. And then in the, in the NFC, I knocked out Tampa and I knocked out Dallas and I was going to knock out the Rams as my third one, because I didn't want to knock out Detroit, San Francisco, Philly, Atlanta, Green Bay. I was like, I got, somebody's got to, I guess it has to,

and then I was like, you know what, fuck it. So I only, I only knocked out two. Yeah, that's what I did. Yeah. I don't feel good about it

because I know there's going to be three, but I'm not going to overreact and just bump the reins. It's fine. You went under in all four NFC South.

Nothing matters really anymore. That was great. That's going to be remembered as one of the great, Nick Wright is going to be in awe of that I can't wait I can't wait for Nick Wright's feedback

I I really like this next team the Seattle Seahawks man I couldn't get they're over 7.5 they're plus 172 to make the playoffs they're plus 210 for 10 plus wins

seven to one for the division and uh i have this as a healthy over i think at least nine and i'm not opposed to the 10 the plus 210 i really like this team easy schedule first couple weeks they go den Denver at the Pats, home Miami, and that could be a 3-0 coming out of the gates. New coach theory kicking in full throttle with Mike McDonald, who I thought did an awesome job with Baltimore last year.

We're just watching the couch. I never try to go completely overboard with the coordinators unless it's like a Lou Amarillo that Cincinnati year. The stuff they were doing with Baltimore with all the injuries they had was nuts yeah so he's going from p carol to him they also have the three receivers i think have to be in the running for best three receiver combo and then they lucked out with that 16th pick they got murphy to just put in the front of the line because everybody was taking offense and this guy just falls from basically eight spots this guy you

can put right in it was exactly what they needed um plus you think last year where they had JSN and then Witherspoon two first round picks are now in year two yeah I just think they have a lot of talent I like the team I couldn't figure out how they got worse I have the better and the worst and I was like how did this team get worse? It just seems like they're plus healthy. Kenneth Walker, who a lot of people are in on, like he might be awesome this year. I don't love, I don't have a strong feeling on this. I did go under.

Really? I have a hot take here. I think Pete Carroll was a very good coach. I watched Russell Wilson. They won all those years with him towards the end. Even last year, a little fraudulent. They were 9-8. They had a minus 38 point

differential at 9-8. So just kind of like, this Mike McDonald might be good, but I don't know. They were 31st and 3rd down defense. They got a ways to go. They have 5 of the last 8 on the road. But that was the problem with Pete Carroll last year. I think the defense, he just couldn't crack the defense anymore.

That used to be like his specialty. Are we not looking at backup quarterbacks enough? Like there were 66 quarterbacks last year. And now you got Sam Howell. And Geno's already got a little bit of a hip injury. Sam Howell threw for almost 4,000 yards last year. What college? He's in the pros.

Did you know that? I know. That is nuts. That's my000 yards last year. What college? In the pros. Did you know that? I know. That is nuts. That's my favorite stat last year. I just think they took a little step back, but I'm not crazy about it. Over for them. And then I have Arizona

is our last team in the conference, or division, and I'm over for them too. Really? Yeah. I did the four runners in the NFC South and the four overs, or three of four overs in the NFC West.

Over a 7.5, plus 124. There's juice on that. Worst record, they're 16-1. They were 4-13 last year and had a nice feel-good end-of-the-year stretch. Offense is going to be super duper, duper fun. Kyler Murray healthy, full season for him. Marvin Harrison, the, I would say, the most anticipated rookie receiver in 20 years

from where he's being drafted in fantasy leagues. Did you see that stat? Yeah. In the ESPN drafts, he's the highest rookie ever drafted. I think Heifetz brought up a good point. Is it going to be better than Puka Nakua? Is it going to break the record? That sounds great.

Maybe he'll be even better than that. That would have to break records. They beefed up their D-line, including with first-rounder Darius Robinson. They beefed up their O-line. Year two of Jonathan Gannon. You know what I was thinking? Well, you go on Arizona. Why are you against them? I just

think it's way high. I don't think they're going from four to eight. And I just look at the schedule. I think they could lose five out of the first six. They start at Buffalo, Rams, Detroit, Washington, at San Francisco, at Green Bay. So you're confident in them going. I mean, what are they going to get out of that?

Two and four? That feels like two and four. And then they have to get six and I can't do six and four the rest of the way? 6 and 6? I don't know I don't think they're getting it

They were such a weird team They were 4 and 13 But they beat the Cowboys Figure Figure they'll split the Rams games Because they always do Alright They'll win in Carolina

And beat the Pats So that's 3 They'll win one of those home games Against Chicago and the Jets I just think that they're probably By the way the other thing With the NFC this year We should have mentioned this earlier they'll win one of those home games against Chicago and the Jets. I just think that they're probably, by the way, the other thing with the NFC this year,

we should have mentioned this earlier, is the NFC has the extra home game. Right. So they have the nine home games. So can they go five and four at home and then steal? They just have to steal three road games? One of the weird things is like people pretend Deshaun didn't play last year. I told you he was 5-1. Murray was 3-5 last year.

He played half the season. You know, so, I don't know. Maybe they're better. They did get better at certain positions, but they have back-to-back road games three times this year.

I don't feel super strongly about it, but I feel like they can get to 8-9. I liked what I saw down the stretch last year, and I do think they have they have I really like their offense. And 8-9. All right. I liked what I saw down the stretch last year, and I do think they have...

I really like their offense. And we didn't mention James Conner. I think their offense is going to be hard to play. They'll be fun. Usually those teams... But if you think, like, how many bad teams are in the NFC, right, the entire NFC South,

Minnesota, possibly Chicago if things don't work very well. Washington and the Giants. Maybe Washington, definitely the Giants. That's half of the conference. Oh, yeah. Right. So is Arizona? And none of these quarterbacks have gotten hurt yet.

So you're right. I just don't like that stretch, that first stretch. So what's your favorite prop? I'm going Fred Warner over one and a half interceptions. Interceptions are lucky, but he had four last year, plus 126. Gets his big mitts up there. Seems to corral on every

three or four weeks. I mean, what page of Fando is that on? Like, page 7 million? You gotta look deep, man. You gotta dig. Fred Warner? I didn't realize we were going that deep. Jesus. I mean, Rams to win the division, I think, is. You got to dig. Fred Warner, I didn't realize we were going that deep. Jesus. I mean, Rams to win the division, I think, is maybe my weirdest of all. Plus 330. Yeah, I will say, and I don't even know if I'm going to bet it,

but I would say the Rams division odds are probably the juiciest odds. But my favorite is the juiciest division odds of any division we've done. Yeah. We're just like them being plus 330 just seems too high. But I think playoffs minus 105 is my favorite. Rams. For Rams. Rams for the playoffs. There's just not enough teams.

So I have for the playoffs in the NFC, Detroit, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Atlanta is the four seed. Just put Atlanta in the four seed now. Yeah. Just put them in concrete. And then I have Green Bay, the Rams, and Seattle as my three wildcard teams. And I have your team out. I have Washington, Green Bay, 49ers as the wildcards.

Okay, so you have Washington in the Seattle spot, basically. Yeah. Okay. All right. What else did we leave out? Anything? I mean, we left out a lot, but we're going to save it for Guest Alliance. Yeah, so we're doing Sunday, we're going to do Guest Alliance.

We're going to do all of our favorite NFL futures. Don't forget, we've put a bunch of those futures now on Fando. What's that thing called? Futures Fusion? Futures Fusion. Futures Fusion. Yeah. But out of everything. I got so drunk last night at Futures Fusion. We were doing fireball shots. Bill was slumped over again at Futures Fusion. Yeah, I had to do an Irish goodbye at Futures

Fusion last night. Wait a minute, I'm trying to order an Uber to Futures Fusion. It's not popping up. They woke up. Come on. Yeah. All right. That's it. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing.

Thanks to Steve Cerruti as well. Jack Wilson. Gahow. We are going to be back on Sunday with Guest Alliance. I already sent you

my guesses. Yes. It's our 18th season plus our favorite futures. And then football season is upon us. The best time of the guesses. Yes. It's our 18th season, plus our favorite futures. And then football season is upon us. The best time of the year, Sam. Good job by us, Billy. Good job by you, Sam. I don't have feelings within.

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