The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Anthony Edwards Moment, the Lions Bandwagon, and NFL Playoff Picks With Rob Mahoney and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: September 6, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Rob Mahoney to discuss the FIBA World Cup, including Anthony Edwards becoming the cornerstone for Team USA, America's struggle with centers in international play, the exciting Team Canada, and more (1:53). Then, Bill talks with Peter Schrager of Fox Sports and NFL Network about Detroit Lions hype, Aaron Rodgers anticipation, and more sleeper teams (29:32), before running through their NFL playoff predictions (54:54). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Rob Mahoney and Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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as well if you have some last-minute drafts before Thursday, the big opening night. Travis Kelsey, we just found out he hyperextended his knee. We talked about the Chiefs-Lions game a little bit

with Peter Schrager coming up later. We didn't even know about the Kelsey thing. So could this be the year from hell for the Chiefs? Bad sign. No Chris Jones?

Kelsey's already kind of hurt. We'll see if it means anything. So anyway, Peter Schrager coming up later and then Rob Mahoney to lead off as we're going to talk a little world championships, Team USA. Do people realize that USA might not win this tournament? Because that might be where we're headed. We're going to talk about all the things

we learned from that team. Also new rewatchables we put up Monday night. We did Lost in Translation, Me and Amanda Dobbins, 20th anniversary of a really, really great movie. So that is what I got for you. Let's bring in Mahoney, here from TheRinger.com. He's now a pop culture guy. He's fairly a sports guy. He's been on our Prestige TV podcast, breaking down the return of Justified,

which was really good. You guys landed a nice spot with it, right? Very good. Enjoyed it a lot. But look, am I not allowed to dabble a little bit? Are we not a sports and pop culture website? We are, and there's nothing going on, which is why it's so exciting.

The FIBA World Cup got really interesting when the U.S. lost to Lithuania, who then summarily got spanked by Serbia. They're out. They played one of the best games of this whole tournament, and they're out. But I've been really fascinated by this USA team. It's really easy to catch up.

The games are on super early here on the West Coast, but it's easy to go on ESPN Plus and just rewind and zip through them. The big revelation, which everybody has been talking about, was Anthony Edwards becoming kind of the guy on this team. And you could feel it in that Lithuania game when they really needed some baskets. And this is what happens in international. You're just kind of like, okay, everybody looks at the one guy.

All right, you got to do stuff. Were you prepared for how close he was to mid-2000s Dwayne Wade? Just kind of that 06 playoffs run Wade of you're not really a point guard, but you have the ball all the time. You go by anybody you want. You're not an incredible outside shooter, but you're good enough and you could just get contact and bounce off people. I had never really thought of him in the Wade context, but you're good enough and you can just get contact and bounce off people. I had never really thought of him in the Wade context, but that was my big takeaway.

Well, especially against international level competition, right, where the athletic gap for Edwards is even bigger than it is in the NBA. And normally when we see slashers like him, again, a guy who's so explosive off the dribble, who can get to his spot so easily, they don't always translate that well

to international play. But he has just enough of a jumper to keep people honest. He's been consistent enough from the mid-range to really punish some teams. And man, just with the way Team USA tries to get up and down in transition, it really plays well for him.

But to your point, he's been their best half-court weapon to date. It's not really even close. And they're going to need a lot more of that. Because otherwise, I don't know, Team USA's half-court weapon to date. It's not really even close. And they're going to need a lot more of that because otherwise, I don't know, Team USA's half-court offense has been maybe as gummy as we should have expected given the track record with some of these teams

in previous international competition. But they're going to have to pull it out against some pretty tough competition and certainly tougher than Italy, who we saw them dispatch pretty easily early this morning. Yeah, they're still favored on FanDuel. We need the Wednesday games to know, I think, what the matchups are going to be.

But USA is minus 180 and Canada is plus 360. Germany plus 850, but Franz got hurt. They were looking a little more dangerous maybe than they are with the semi-injured Franz. The Canada, I can't wait to talk about the Canada piece of it. But with the Edwards thing, did it change your feeling? Like, does any of this affect how you feel about the upcoming season? Because Edwards, I think, is the only guy in this team that made me maybe rethink a little in my head

what the ceiling of that team is. I don't think Minnesota is going to win the title. But, you know, could he become one of the seven, eight best guys in the league like what happened with SGA last year, where all of a sudden it's like, oh, alright, if you're making any top ten list, SGA has to be on that list.

And I was wondering, could that be a possibility with Edwards? Where do you stand on that? I think if it was just this, if it was just FIBA, I would be a little bit more skeptical about the long-term prospect. But because we've seen this arc from him going back, especially kind of the back half of the regular season, some into the playoffs and his progression, reading the floor as a playmaker, kind of being more, to your point, in a lead guy context, whether that's point guard or even as a dominant ball handler or not, all that stuff is really promising. They still have a lot to figure out, obviously, in Minnesota in terms of making all the pieces fit just so and all these bigs and kind of figuring all that out. But the fact that he can be this kind of player and worst case scenario, you can fall back

on having the most dynamic creator on the floor. It's a pretty nice floor to have in a really crowded Western conference. So I don't know how optimistic I am that they're going to reach their maximum potential, but they could level out as just being consistently better than some of these other teams out West just because of him.

We saw the flashes with him defensively, and he's had a couple stretches in these games where he's just like, I'm going to absolutely torture this guy I'm just a way better athlete and I think that's been startling too right? On ball he's always been pretty sensational

off ball I think we can politely say he can get a little sleepy at times and you still see that some with Team USA but they switch so much more in international play than the Timberwolves do and so that really, you know, when you think about why Tumuse plays the way it does, so much of it is just like

maximizing the talent and the athleticism they have available. And that's kind of like most accentuated through players like Edwards, who can be on the ball as much as possible. Don't have to worry about trailing cutters and working like the backdoor stuff quite as often. He can just do what he does best defensively. And that should be a really dogged, get into your jersey, really make your life a living hell kind of ball denier and ball stopper. And that's a really fun player to watch. Can he be that all the time in a system that doesn't switch?

I have my doubts. And that's where we need to see him really grow up as a defender and kind of his awareness and his IQ need to come along a little bit on that end. But he's, he's such a great athlete. His instincts are really good. And God, I mean, so many of these, these guards in international play just don't have the ability to get past him at all, or really even keep their dribble alive against him sometimes. He's hitting every checkpoint you'd want to hit. Now he hasn't had like the, you know, crazy playoff moment yet,

but when you think he's 22 years old, but if you're going to be a special basketball player, you kind of want him to be special in this tournament, even though he's only 22. And I think, read it between the lines and the quotes and just from some of the whispers around, I don't think they expected him to be the guy on this team. And I think they've been pretty honest about that.

I don't think they want to come out and say, look, we thought this was going to be Brunson at the end of games, but they've said it in so many different ways. And I do think they felt like Brunson was going to be the crunch time guy. And you spelt it in Lithuania. Lithuania, they played lights out. They make every three super physical. They, they finally put a little dent in the Reeves hype, which was, and you know, I'm the

number one Reeves guy who hates the Lakers, but they posted them up a couple of times. It was like, Whoa, what's this? Are we seeing this next year? Um, everybody's kind of gone up and down, but I think Edwards has been the big winner. What else have you noticed from this team using your NBA brain, watching it? Like, what did you see that made you, like, tilt your brain a little bit? Well, I think we have to talk about the bigs issue, right? This kind of long-term trajectory

of who Team USA brings along to play center and backup center and even power forward at times. I think those conversations are pretty related. Jaron Jackson Jr. I think has had some sensational moments defending the rim, like attacking in transition, getting stops in transition. But we're seeing the difference between defending in the NBA and defending in international play. And in particular, I think we're seeing such a departure, but you know,

from an era where we're used to the elite defenders also being elite rebounders for bigs, right? It's like, bring Dwight Howard, bring Anthony Davis, we'll make the rest work, which is like the most dynamic collection of talent in the tournament at forward and guard. Jaron Jackson Jr. And if you want to stretch it out, even to, you know, the Draymond Greens of teams past, you know, Miles Turner was center for Team USA in the previous World Cup. These are guys who defend really well and who are kind of you know all nba level defenders but aren't necessarily rebounding that well and lithuania took such advantage of that where yunus valentine is just like throwing walker kessler over his shoulder and scraping down

these boards and at some point the usa will get punished by that in a more meaningful way you know obviously they're going to be able to run up teams like Italy. I think Germany, even for as good as their bigs are, Tyson and Mo Wagner have been pretty good in this tournament. But as a team, they don't offensive rebound as well. But you can see kind of what the formula is

for beating the Americans now. And you do have to hit a lot of threes like Lithuania did. But if you can attack the glass and you have the size to beat a team that's running really small across the board right now, you've got a shot in these games. They have done so much trial and error with the bigs, really going back to 04 when they first started having trouble with that team. But that team had Duncan. But then I remember when Love played crunch time in 12.

Yeah. And even though he wasn't, we weren't thinking of him as like a quote unquote center back then, but he did get the rebounds, right? And they've tried all these different ways.

Like they always talk about how Chris Bosh was like the perfect international big. He's not the craziest rebounder either. They tried, what was it, two years ago or four years ago when they had the Miles Turner and Javale McGee.

And that one didn't work. It makes you think. America just doesn't produce guys like a Jonas Valanciunas, which it's not like he's one of the best 40 players in the league, but there's a specific international,, big, these super physical, just kind of bowl you over. And, and Jackson,

who was defensive player of the year, like he kind of didn't know what to do. He got in foul trouble immediately. Um, but I thought Kessler would be somebody that might be able to handle him. As you said, like Jonas just threw him over his shoulder and took him for a ride. So it is the one weakness.

The good news, I guess for the U S is not sure Canada is going to be able to do that. They play a little more like America and Germany is not going to do that either. So they just might not see that type of team again. Lithuania just got waxed by Serbia. They're out. So, you know, if you're, if you're saying like, that's your, your biggest weakness, not shocking. The rebounding is more concerning to me because if they play another close game, there is going to be a couple moments. Can you just grab a board? Who's doing it?

I think that's why Kerr was playing Hart so much and then Hart stopped rebounding too the last couple games, but I think just Hart's ability to do that off ball, those flying in rebounds and stuff like that, they really needed it. So I don't know what the long

term answer is. Who is the guy we have for next year? I don't know who they add. Well, to your point, we've been outsourcing center play in the NBA overseas for a long time. I mean, even just thinking about who were the all NBA centers this year, all three international players of the guys to even receive votes, Bam Adebayo and Brooke Lopez, I think, were the only American players to receive votes. Bam just went on a long finals run. He wasn't going to show up for this competition. He could be back. He would definitely be helpful.

Brooke, that did not go so well. I think he played in 2020. Yeah, 2021. Didn't go so well, which is why you're already starting to hear about the courtship of Joel Embiid, right, who theoretically could

be eligible if you wanted to as an American citizen now to play for the U.S. He could also play for France, and that's why France losing in such embarrassing fashion in this tournament is maybe like a disaster scenario for the Americans because if they get really desperate and really go hard at

Joel, I think the US could really use a guy like him, needless to say, the reigning MVP. But if Steve Kerr isn't sprinting through an airport or holding up a boombox outside Joel's house or making some impassioned plea monologue in the rain,

I think we have failed as a nation. We need to get actual bigs on the floor. And that's the guy, unless you want to call up Nick Claxton, you know, that's kind of what the drop off is at this point. Can I zag? You laid out the MB thing perfectly.

Ball stopper. I think, I think Steve Kerr likes, he likes the Edwards is about as ball stopper as it gets, but even he's been pretty good with moving around. I'd be interested to see if they just abandoned that and they were like, we're going to bring in a bead. Who's never been able to play like that in his career.

Like if they thought that was enough of a concern that they'd have to act, actually change what seems to be the, the goal of this team is a lot of movement, a lot of rewarding people who can play off the ball on the ball. That's why Brandon Ingram struggled. Feel bad. Every year on the, every time we have a tournament in the American team,

there's always the one guy in the, when you see in the bench, you're like, yeah, that guy's miserable. He might be making an injury soon. And this year it's Brandon Ingram. Who's just like,

I just, can I, can we play the offense where I have the ball? I'm not, I'm not Carballo Anthony. From a center standpoint, though, I think Bam would be the

kind of band-aid solution. Who's not the most incredible rebounder either, but that's probably where this lands. Because I was trying to think, Devin Booker's definitely on this team. To be clear, the big boys usually show up for the Olympics in ways that they do not for the FIBA World Cup.

And so everything we're talking about, the center position, some of that stuff is papered over or has been in the past by the fact that Team USA always had LeBron or Kevin Durant on it for the most part. So you know what? It's pretty easy to rebound

when you're playing those guys at the four. And we'll see kind of what the forward positions look like for Team USA. But do you know who was on the select team for Team USA this time around? Who's the young crop of bigs who could be up and coming for this group? Who was it? Tell me. Chet Holmgren, who has not played an NBA game

yet. So interesting prospect down the line. I don't know about for Paris, but certainly as part of the program. And Nas Reid was the other center. My guy! You know, if you want to go the opposite of the ball stopper direction, I guess throw Nas Reid out there in kind of the DeAndre Jordan

role player center mode that we've seen from Team USA in years past. I'll tell you this. When Jonas was feeling it in that Lithuania game, Nas Reid would have at least tried to take a real issue with it. Yeah. My guess would be Bam definitely. Yeah. Booker definitely. And then I think Tatum in the Durant spot. And this team's going to have to decide like at some point, if you're one of the

older stars, do you turn it over to the new crop, right? Durant's been basically part of this team since 2010. He's in his mid thirties now. I don't know why you would need Tatum and Durant. And I think they are going to be loyal to, to some of these dudes, but we know like Bobby Portis isn't going to be on the Olympic team and Josh Hart probably won't either. And then they're going to have to figure out some sort of point guard, you know, what they do with Brunson, Halliburton. What if somebody else wants to play? The bigs will be the hardest thing to figure out, I think, though.

What else have you seen just from, oh, I'm surprised by this. As somebody who watches NBA basketball week after week, I wasn't expecting this. Anything else? Other than Dennis Schroeder becoming the best point guard in the world? That's a funny thing, though,

because I do feel like, in terms of how the Americans defend players on these other international teams, they usually do better with the Dennis Schroeder type. The guys they know are usually a little easier to handle than... I think it was after the Lithuania game, Anthony Edwards tipped his cap to number 22.

If you can't even name the guy you were guarding, it's usually a sign that maybe you weren't completely plugged in on the scouting report the way you might have needed to be. But overall, I think it's just such a different scheme of competition between who can dominate.

A player like Dennis Schroeder in the NBA cannot dominate. But on a one-game stretch against one opponent who will not see you again until potentially the out rounds, he can be great. Jonas Valanciunas can be great. These are guys who, in an NBA context, are pretty exploitable.

And yet, you can see how differently Team USA thinks about the schematic of their team relative to these guys. They have loaded up on guards and wings, the kinds of players who are really useful for adapting over a seven-game series.

But if Jonas Valanciunas comes into a game and just wrecks the first eight to ten minutes of it and completely changes the course of it, that's a very different outcome, right? Like, that's not a seven-game problem anymore. And so to see some of these guys who have really popped for the other international teams, like Daniel Tice, he's been a huge player on the international stage

in a way he just like literally will never be. You know, I think you can have your moment. Pat him on the back. He's come a long way. But the Americans have to do a little better

reconciling those kinds of threats. And it's not as much of an issue when the utmost superstars are there on the competitive stage. But when your best players are, you know, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Brunson and Mikael Bridges, really good NBA players, guys who don't quite have the margin for error of your absolute superstars, you got to do a little bit better with some of these one-off threats.

You're guys in the Patty Mills mode of just like, who could go off in a random FIBA game at a given point in time. You got to do a little better with that if you're the Americans. Yeah, it's really a tournament like Jordan Clarkson's like the perfect guy for this tournament. He's like, oh God, he's got going. What's happening? The biggest issue I see, there's two

games left. They're playing, I guess, either Thursday or Friday, probably Friday and then Sunday I think is the final. There's two scenarios where they won't have the best player in the game. And one is Canada. Yeah. And the other is Slovenia.

And they're playing each other. I mean, the Bogdan Bogdanovich erasure that's happening right now. Have some respect. Yeah, that's true. He did destroy Lithuania. But SGA is going to be a fascinating one because you know no surprise he made first team all NBA but

at the same time it is a tiny bit of a surprise I think that some people not realizing like oh Luka is the best part in this tournament Luka is the best part in this tournament but for all the stuff SGA does and can do you know it's really not much of a difference.

He gets any shot he wants. Who stops him on Team USA? Is this the Anthony Edwards moment? Is this the, oh, you didn't realize I could do this if they end up playing them? Because I feel like it might be.

That would be a sensational matchup. Bridges would be the other one, right? And we've seen them throw heart at some of those guys, at least to start games too. And maybe if it gets more competitive, someone like Bridges would be the other one, right? And we've seen them throw heart at some of those guys, at least to start games too. And maybe if it gets more competitive, someone like Bridges shifts over, man, Ant would be a really fun matchup.

You just worry about the amount of screens that Luka goes through, exactly the kind of pressure that's going to put on your Jaron Jacksons and your Paulo Banqueiros and some of those other guys to step up in those situations. But they'd have a good shot. I think I would love to see the Edwards matchup on Luka specifically.

SGA is different, and Canada really overall is a different kind of threat because they're really the only team left in the field, and maybe the only team that was in this tournament to begin with that actually has the kind of depth that Team USA has, and that's where we see in so many of these games

as gummy and awkward as Team USA's offense And that's where you see in so many of these games, as gummy and awkward as Team USA's offense might look at times, they just explode on these huge runs when the second unit comes in a lot. Like Tyrese Halliburton

just has them gunning out of the gate. They're so good in transition. Their pressure defense is really good. I mean, Halliburton almost outscored Italy's bench by himself.

And that's kind of the differential between some of these matchups. Canada, though, has a lot of NBA talent. A lot of rotation guys who are coming in off the bench, who are filling out their lineups, who are just quality NBA players. And we've seen, if you can have

that kind of talent base and a star like Shea, that's a pretty good formula to meddle in these kinds of tournaments. And that's the trajectory that Canada's on, needless to say. but they might also be on a trajectory to just upset the Americans outright. Well, speaking of Canada, one of the big revelations

of this tournament, Dylan Brooks. Given away by, you know, Memphis was just like, we're good. Who wants them? Please, take them, anybody. Then Houston comes in, they pay him 80 for four. Nobody knows who they're even competing against.

Seems pretty weird on paper, but you know, Udoka goes in, wants no part of James Harden. He squashes that, brings in Van Vliet, who's just a grinder, you know, overachiever guy. Brings in Dylan Brooks with this huge chip on his shoulder. And then you watch Canada and it's like SGA and Brooks. Like this is the best backcourt like SGA and Brooks, like this,

this is the best backcourt in the tournament and Brooks looks awesome. And you start thinking, Oh, that, that four for 80, maybe not as crazy as it seems. Cause there's not a lot of guys who have been in big games who can defend, who can, who just aren't afraid. And, uh, we, I don't, I don't even know why I'm saying this, but I was like weirdly happy for him. And I was probably one of the people writing him off, but you never like to write people off when they're 25. Maybe he'll learn from that experience, but it did make me think with Houston. It was like, okay, they kind of nailed that draft.

Shangoon grew to 6'11 out of nowhere. Nobody was expecting that. Jabari Smith looked amazing at Summer League. And now you have a real backcourt. Maybe that Rockets team will be fun. But were you surprised by Brooks? Or were you like, oh, this was here all along? I mean, with a player like him on the trajectory he was on,

I think you're always worried about just the tailspin straight out of the league at some point. A guy who shoots with that kind of volume and has that kind of confidence. I've always been a bit of a Brooks booster. I really value what he does defensively. I really value, especially for a young team, or in this case, a very Canadian team,

a guy who brings a lot of edge, a guy who has that kind of intensity, a guy who has the kind of on-ball defensive chops we're praising with Edwards and with some of these other elite defenders in the tournament. So the fact that he can bring that to this mix, I think is incredibly valuable.

The fact that he's going to bring it to the Rockets, I think is going to be pretty valuable. You're going to want to pull your hair out sometimes, no matter when you watch him, but he's been just what Canada needs. And I think there will be nights where he's just what Houston needs too. And we'll just have to see kind of how that comes out

over the grand scheme of the season, how everyone is feeling about the Dylan Brooks experience. But he has a lot to give. He has a lot to take off the table sometimes too, but he does have a lot to give. Yeah, it's the old table test of taking forks and knives off,

putting forks and knives back on. You don't know if the silverware is just moving around. You know, this is the last piece, and then we can go. But the U.S.-Canada game, I think is really going to be a great sporting event. And I don't know when the finals are.

I'm really hoping it's before football starts on Sunday. I believe it is. I believe it's an early start. Yeah, good. Because that game is going to be fascinating. And, you know, I think it's a big moment for SGA. Guys like Kelly Olenek, who have always

been these annoying playoff guys who can just out of nowhere hit six threes in a game like he did against the Wizards that year. So you have that factor. It's an interesting R.J. Barrett moment. Can you stay out there in crunch time? You know, there's been some games when he hasn't even been out moment. Can you stay out there in crunch time? There's been some games when he hasn't even been out there.

And then just SGA in general, trying to put his real stamp not just on the tournament, but be like, hey, I'm one of the best players in the world and watch out for OKC this year. And then on the flip side, all the USA plots that we mentioned. I think that's an amazing game. It's really

one of the best international games we've had in a while, right? It would hypothetically be an amazing game. I feel like this is where your nationalism is subconsciously coming out because this happens every international tournament Canada shows up to. We get ahead of ourselves, penciling them into the final,

penciling them into the semis. And then they blow it. They always blow it. And I'm optimistic that they can change their stripes this time around. But I simply refuse to indulge any Canada hypotheticals until they show up in the actual game

and compete in it. But I'm hopeful. That matchup would be amazing. And it's been, I don't know, decades in the making at this point. We've been waiting for an actual USA-Canada rivalry type game. Oh, yeah.

Well, here's the other thing. No Jamal Murray for them. No. So you just add him, obviously, US is going to have more guys, but the Jamal Murray SGA backcourt in the Olympics is going to be unbelievable. By the time people hear this, Canada-Sylvania is early morning on Wednesday, and maybe Canada gets knocked out. People are listening to this going, look at these jack-offs talking about Canada-US. Canada's out. It's possible. It's unfortunately very possible.

And the Andrew Wiggins flirtations continue too. I don't know if you saw him tweeting out some Canadian flags in support of this team that he has kind of refused to play for over the years for various reasons. But hypothetically,

if Canada decides they don't actually need a multi-year commitment from him after all, he could be added to this team as well. So the incredible talent base for Canadian basketball right now, hopefully we'll get an incredible result from all that talent for really the first time

in their program's recent history. Well, even Canada has Lou Dort just kind of over in the closet. They're like, can you go grab Lou Dort for eight minutes? And he just comes out. This is one of the better 3 and D guys. Great stuff.

I can't wait for the rest of these games. Between this and football, content was dead. We're recapping Justified every week. We're back, baby. We're so back. We're ranking NBA players this week. I demanded to be in the rankings. I'm still so upset that James Harden got to 19

in the last batch of the rankings. I demanded to have a vote. So I will be voting for our NBA rank this time around. I don't think he's going to make 19 this time. Where will Peyton Pritchard be on your ballot? Peyton Pritchard will not be on the ballot. Reeves was, you know, kind of

inching toward the top 10 for me. But then after watching Lithuania, just work them like a speed bag. I think he's going to be dropping to the 60s.

It gets really interesting once you get past like the first seven, eight guys. Oh yeah. And you move into that LeBron, Ja,

Anthony Davis, like all these dudes where you can make cases that they could go eight, they could go 15. You start weighing in the age and all that stuff. So I'm excited to vote.

Nothing makes people madder than ranking NBA players. Like literally nothing. You can't do anything on the internet that makes people more mad. Rob Mahoney, we can hear in the Ringer NBA show this week. Definitely.

We're getting back into our normal Ringer NBA show form shortly, but back into a kind of a group chat adjacent formulation this week with me and me're getting back into our normal Ringer NBA show form shortly, but back into kind of a group chat adjacent formulation this week with me and Varyer on there. Great. Thanks for coming on. Good to see you. Thanks, Bill. The NFL is back and the best place to celebrate is

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Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day. All the gang's here.

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You can find him on Good Morning Football. You can find him on Fox for the 47th straight year for you on Fox. Yeah, 15th straight year, Bill. And I think we're going up against you guys now. Fan duel in the mornings on Sunday. Let's go. What a battle.

Lions playing Thursday night. You're all in on this team. You've been talking about it all summer. And sometimes, you know, sometimes you get too excited. Other times you're dead on, but you just feel like this team's going to be this offensive juggernaut. I guess we're going to get a nice glimpse on it Thursday night, especially if Chris Jones doesn't play, but tell us, just give us the bullet points. What do you love here? I think they're going to be the number one offense in football this year. I think the

offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson is a mad genius and he's not from the same tree as the rest of the mad geniuses. He doesn't come from the McVay, LaFleur, Shanahan branch. He's not a Gruden guy. He comes in almost on his own. And this was the hottest offense in the league at the end of last season. And it was one that obviously rolled up all those wins at the end. They missed the playoffs. He would have been a number one head coaching candidate from all of these teams had vacancies. He pulled his name out of the conversations, 37 years old, smart guy,

understated guy. And I don't think he's a familiar name or face to most of America, but he spent the entire off season in the lab and building. And if you remember last year against the Packers in that week 18, it was just a taste, but it was like second and 17 up for in Lambeau fourth quarter calls a hook and ladder, you know,

last year in a big game on a third and eight calls Penny Sewell in motion. And they go to Penny Sewell on a pass play different kind of offense. And I think we're used to seeing when we talk about these high forward often, I think they're going to be using players in a lot of different ways, positionless, if you will. I spoke with Brad Holmes, the GM, on my podcast that I do the season with Peter Schrager. I thought it would be generic. This dude was gushing about Jameer Gibbs. This was back in early July before all the fantasy hype started to go. He said, when we were drafting Jameer, we were worried

when we traded back that weer, we were worried when we traded back that we wouldn't get him at 12. We wanted him so badly. And what we view in him is an elite positionless weapon, which means you could play wide receiver. You could use him out of the backfield. We might use him as an H back. We can do a lot of different things with them. And I think they view that offense as a lot of pieces and chess pieces that they can add in all different ways together. And they were just rolling. So that's the McCaffrey model. That's the McCaffrey model with Gibson. Absolutely. I think the McCaffrey model, I think the Debo model, if you want, is the way. And David Montgomery is a really good running back. They had a good running back room

last year. Remember, they had DeAndre Swift and they had Jamal Williams who had 18 touchdowns on the ground and they blew the whole thing up. And they're like, we'll go with Montgomery and Gibbs. And they think they got better in the running back room. That's the offense. Counter. Counter. They had two high first round picks.

They didn't really seem like they improved their defense that much in general. And that was the rub last year. I mean, if people are going to pick them to be a possible fringe contender and all this stuff, are they going to be able to stop people from scoring?

Because on my scorecard, the answer is no. Yeah. And you look at the teams in the Super Bowl, the Eagles and the Chiefs both gave up 35 points or whatever in the Super Bowl. I think when it comes down to it, you got to score points in the league these days. It's not going to be that team. That's the number one rated defense that immediately you put into the Super Bowl. Offense matters more than defense.

And that's how I see it. They added Jack Campbell. People rolled their eyes. 18th overall pick out of Iowa. That's the number one rated defense that immediately you put into the Super Bowl. Offense matters more than defense. And that's how I see it. And they added Jack Campbell, who people rolled their eyes. 18th overall pick out of Iowa. They like him. They like their linebackers. And then on the defensive side, they got Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Got a little bite to him.

And they got this guy, Brian Branch, who for Holmes, raving about what Gibbs is going to bring to them. Holmes, who I think is a really smart evaluator, is like, we were shocked Branch fled out of the second round. He's our starting safety. And then you add that to a defense that last year had an Aiden Hutchinson and had Houston on the outside.

Like, they feel really good about their defense. Whether or not they can stop a team when it matters most, we'll see. But I almost think that's secondary to what their offense is going to do. I think they're going to put up a lot of points. So there, the line against KC on Thursday, it's floating.

It's like around six and a half, but there's like a Chris Jones, people kind of just staring at it. And if Chris Jones doesn't play, and again, I'm not a huge fan of this Lions team, and I think there's been way too much hype, but if Chris Jones doesn't play, what an incredible way to start the season for them, right?

Because they got Seattle at home in week two and you don't want to go down 0-1. Then you play Seattle and all of a sudden, Geno hits lock eight. You're down 7-0. It's like, wait, I thought we were going to the Super Bowl. We're all set upstairs 0-2. But it feels like without Chris Jones,

we could see the offense kind of get unleashed. We've seen the road teams in these opening night games. Sometimes we'll just get super frisky. Chiefs did it with Kareem Hunt that one year when they came into New England. We're like, let's just go put up 42 in that opening game. The Lions have the possibility of just pissing down their leg, right? There's a chance we get there Thursday night and it's 38-0 and it's what are we doing? I today had to pinch myself and we're recording this on a Tuesday and I'm like, holy shit.

The NFL could have picked anyone to kick the season. They chose the lions for years on Thanksgiving. We've been pleading. Can we get any other team on Thanksgiving to start? Like, why are we committed to the lions? It's such a, they chose the lions.

This is rare air, rare territory for them. As, as Mike's Francesco say, rarefied air. Like that's what this feels like to get that rarefied air, to get opening week, be picked by the league and say of all the teams, we're choosing you.

And I think they're worthy. Can I go counter on that? I love when you go counter, let's go. They had Thursday night game. They have a Thursday night game week four at green Bay. They have a Monday night game home Vegas. Their Thursday Thanksgiving,

the early game against green Bay. And they have a week 17 at Dallas on a Saturday night. That's pretty brutal for 17 games. And you're in five different places, you know, that aren't just the, like we were talking to, I think it was Atlanta has the schedule where they just play at Sunday at one or four o'clock every single time for four straight months. I'm like, I think I'd

like that if I'm a football player, uh, like these big marquee we're on TV. Here we are again. Like we've seen that go sideways. Sometimes a million times we see it year after year where the league's like, this is the T how about Denver last year when they were put on prime time, I think the first four weeks of the season. And by the time they were playing uh the colts on amazon on a thursday night we're like please no more like we're good like we're done boycotting we're done we're done with denver yeah well at least the lions are gonna be fun like even if they're not as good as we think they're gonna put up points i think they're gonna put up like 30 points every game i love watching this this offense in the summer even hearing the stories about how they're

using gibbs and again i you know, everyone does their Super Bowl picks. Not everyone has to do playoff picks. On Good Morning Football, they really put us, they pin us down. They're like, you need to put playoff picks. And it's very, look, I know the algorithm. Here's the algorithm, Bill. And if you want to be in sports media

and be like the popular, you just say everyone's great. You say this, I think, put some respect on this team's name or don't be surprised when this team does. At some point, only seven teams make it out of each conference. And I think the Lions are going to win the NFC North

and I'll put my name on it. I think this is the year for Detroit. That might be a kiss of death, but I feel like I've got pretty good intel on all these teams and I'm fine putting my name on it. So every year, half the teams that made the playoffs the year before don't make it. And one of the cases for the Lions is like,

okay, we got seven spots this year for new playoff teams. I couldn't get to seven with my playoff picks. I could only get to six. I wasn't happy about it, but I'm higher on the Giants, I think, than most. So I gave Green Bay that NFC North spot, and there's a variety of reasons for that. But I like Green green base team. I think their schedule is amazing.

Um, I'm a believer in the Jordan love, uh, that, you know, it's no on the hype side. It's not Kenny Pickett level. No,

like where, like some of the Kenny Pickett quotes, I'm like, Oh my God, could this guy potentially heal cancer someday? What's going to happen? Um, but they,

you know, they, they're getting some decent hype. And I think having that Rodgers black cloud has been nice for them. So if you had to make the case for the Packers, I know you're Detroit, but make the case for the Packers for us that I'm right. What is it? Ideal situation for a young quarterback.

If you were to draw it up, you'd say, of course, we wish we had the luxury of three years in the lab and three years of learning with no pressure he's a first round pick they traded up to get him um so if you're throwing anthony richardson into the fire at 21 years old and saying week one just go and that's the least ideal situation for a player how about three years learning under a hall of fame quarterback who has whatever anyone wants to say about rogers he was very good to j Love. He could have held a grudge, but he learned from Favre that that's just not the way to do it. And from all the conversations I've had, Rodgers really took to Love and Love was taken under his wing and learned everything from him. And same coaching staff, consistency. And Mark Murphy's the president of the Packers. He had a little throwaway line in one of his press conferences that I thought was really interesting. He goes, well, we're finally

going to see Matt's offense, which means Matt LaFleur. And it's like, Rogers for years would be like, okay, I'll take your information, but let's meld it with what I can do and what I see and the audibles at the line. And it's worked in it. And that's more like QB under center, more play action, all stuff Rogersgers didn't want to do. And in the real time, this is what we're changing it to. And I'm going to do what I'm comfortable with. And trust me,

in a way that maybe sometimes the coaching staffs would bristle in the past where it's like, no, no, I got it. Don't worry. Jordan Love's going to run the Matt LaFleur offense, whatever that is.

And he's going to run it like a robot almost because that's just what he's been trained to do. And if I'm not mistaken, the LaFleur offense is a lot like the Shanahan offense where you've got a lot of different run concepts. You've got Bakhtiari, Rashawn Gary, these are Jair Alexander,

these are superstars. So like, these are real, really good players on, on green Bay. My counter to that is, I don't know. I don't know anything about Jordan love.

If like you were to tell me, name me five facts about Jordan love. Can you tell me about Jordan? Love doesn't have pressure situation. Can Jordan Love make the... I don't know. And we have to see. And they're the youngest team in the league on paper. So I'm going to stay away. But gosh, would that not be frustrating for the rest of the NFC North if Rodgers finally exits stage left and they just step right in and their new guy wins a division title right after him? It's a great storyline. I also, there's so much hype for Detroit

that I would say Minnesota and Green Bay has got to be a little in the nobody believes in us zone, right? Right. Who's picking either of those teams

except for me? And sound like Minnesota, which I thought was a pretty fun zag. Here's the Minnesota argument. The offense is what it is and I know they won a lot of close games.

You and I, a million dollar picks. We lived and died with it, but Flores is a significantly better defensive coordinator than what it is. And I know they won a lot of close games. You and I, a million dollar picks. We lived and died with it. But Flores is a significantly better defensive corner than what they had last year. And their defense is supposed to be much better. So if they won 13 games and had a home playoff game without Brian Flores calling the shots on defense,

you'd like to think that they can do better on D. I just think the schedule is difficult. And I think Detroit is significantly better than they were last year. Yeah, it feels like that whatever happened last year, it's hard to imagine them even coming close to that. They were 11-0

in one-score games or whatever that was. Even if that turns into five and six, they're... Did we talk about the quarterback on Netflix? Did you think that changed the narrative on Cousins at all? I feel like he comes into this season and people are like, you know what? He's corny.

He loses big games. I fucking like Kirk Cousins. Do you feel like after that series, people are different? Because I feel like all the talk right now, no one's tearing him down. They're like,

Cousins is one of those guys. He's getting a lot more respect than he was before doing that series. It does seem like he was the big winner of that series other than people realizing how hurt Mahomes was in the playoffs in those last two episodes. Mariotta was the big loser of that series, other than people realizing how hurt Mahomes was in the playoffs

in those last two episodes. Mariota was the big loser, I think. And actually, if you're to make the case for Atlanta as a playoff team, it's just watch that quarterback series. Like, oh man, they were in a lot of trouble at that position last year. I just, I can't get there with

Ritter. I just can't. That's exactly right. And, you know, it ended in a cloud of mystery when Mariota wasn't there. And like, we still have kind of a mystery on what really went down there with the injury, but I go back to Cousins and, you know, I see all these quarterbacks around the league and, you know, it's like, I don't want to do that. It doesn't want to take attention away from the team. Like, was there any better public relations or commercial that one quarterback could do than what Cousins got. There was so much goodwill around Cousins. And I think now it's like Cousins in a contract year,

he's a warrior, he plays hurt, and he's a really likable guy and he's a student of the game. I feel like that was the best thing Cousins could have done last season was to put it all on film and have people kind of get to know him at a different level.

And I think that's a commercial for the show, if anything. Yeah, those documentaries, and I've been involved in a few where it's completely changed what people think of somebody or it gets them rooting for somebody that they've never thought of. Like we just did this G League documentary

and there's a guy in it, Gabe York, who's like scrapping. He's 30 years old now. Yeah. Yeah. And I'm getting texts from people who are just like, hey, what's the Gabe update?

And it's only because you spent two hours watching this documentary and you're living with them. But I do think you're right. Cousins had such a kind of crap reputation. And I don't know, a lot of people watch that documentary, whether it was good or not, I think is a different debate. But I think for the NFL, it seemed like it was mostly positive,

especially the Mahomes. I didn't learn a lot about Mahomes, but the audio of him combined with, uh, you know, it just gave you a different insight to like, oh yeah, these guys are like really hurt when they're hurt. It's not like, it's just not an injury report. Like these guys are compromised and playing through it. I'll tell you, you talk about like, whether it was good or not. I know that, you know, obviously there's, there's levels of access and what they're going to let in. It's funny with hard knocks. Um, you know, obviously there's, there's levels of access and what they're going to let in. It's funny with hard knocks.

Um, you know, the jets, they've had crazy ratings and that could be a result of writer's strike actors, uh, strike and people just looking for entertainment. And,

you know, the fact that Rogers is in it, the jet said, they're not going to show players get cut. And, you know, on Tuesday night's episode, they,

they go into the meeting where they, they show these undrafted guys making the team. And I came out on Good Morning Football. I'm like, that's not hard knocks to me. I want to see the player get his ass cut. Like, let's show like that's where it's at now. It's like, we don't have to do this. We don't want to.

All right. So that might be a thing of yesteryear where we see the ugly side of football and maybe the ugly side of hard knocks. I do think Rodgers is the number one, number two, number three, number four reasons the ratings were up because however you feel about him, he is really compelling in that format, right? He's like half full of shit. The team does seem like they really respect and are interested in his opinion on everything. He's playing to the cameras because he's so shrewd with all this stuff. So even that part's fun.

There's like a meta element to it where it's like, oh, come on. You're just doing this because the cameras are on. But he's also really good at it. And he's funny. Every year we watch this show and the guys don't get that, the reality part of this, where it's like, oh, I'm actually performing on camera. And most people don't get it. And it's the ultimate window into, into like what they want out

there. So Rogers is like fully aware. So here's what we're going to show. And I don't think Rogers is final approval, but I think the jets and NFL films are working on what comes out and gosh, for all the kicking and screaming the jets did going into this thing. I couldn't imagine a better commercial for Aaron Rogers than these past. Every single person who watches this has texted me and like, he's, he's pretty likable. I'm like, well, you weren't tweeting that two years ago. You know? So yes, it's like, this is a, been a very good public relations experience for Aaron Rodgers. And I think it's authentic in how much he does love being in New York. Uh, just talking to people who are in his world. And then also at the jets, it's like, this guy is a ray of sunshine

every single day. It has not turned South yet. And we're now entering the season. We'll see how it goes. Yeah. One of the reasons I've had, like last year I was locked in and this year I'm having so much trouble figuring out what's going to happen. There's a couple of teams I love and a couple of teams I'm completely out on that. I'm like, I know I'm right on this, but then there's this middle and it's like the Lions, it's the Jets, all these teams where it's like, I could really

honestly see both sides, even Atlanta with their schedule and their ability to run the ball on their offensive line. And they made the defense a little better. We both like Arthur Smith. Like, yeah, I could see them getting there, but I just don't know with Ritter. With Rodgers, there is a case like the dude was hurt last year and that's why he didn't play well, and that's it. And we're going to watch him kick ass this year, and we're going to say, oh, he was hurt last year. We should have known. What were we thinking? Oh, we're so stupid.

There's also a case when he looks like he did last year, and we say, oh, you know what? Yeah, if he doesn't have awesome offensive line play, and he's not getting the shit kicked out of him. He's good, but when you bring in these other variables, not as good. I don't think there's a right or a wrong on this because we have no idea if the Jets O-line is going to be good, and we have no idea what he's going to look like

heading into age 40. So I don't know. I'm open to all outcomes with that. I know, and we're two years removed from the Packers offensive line being completely decimated and him still winning an MVP. I think his ability to get, get rid of the ball quick to spot coverages, to make adjustments to the line makes it okay. That if the offensive line isn't exactly, you know, the Cowboys in the nineties with Mark Stepnoski, uh, blocking for him, but you know, Makai Becton is not going to be the lead topic on many sports shows or be a guest on any

podcast, but at right tackle, this is a guy, his first seven games in the league a few years ago was the most dominant rookie offensive lineman this sport has ever seen. He would just be swallowing guys, got injured, put on a ton of weight. He hasn't played in two years and he's now down to the weight that he wants to be at. And they announced him as a starting right tackle. If he's a turnstile and Greg Rousseau has three sacks week one on Monday night football, like this could be a long season and Rogers could start popping off on them and it could really go down South. If Makai Becton is okay. And if Dwayne Brown can play and stays the whole season healthy and gosh, they get

anything out of the interior offensive line. They are really good. Their defense was number four overall in the league last year with Zach Wilson and Mike White at quarterback. Now you add Rogers in at quarterback and you add, you know, Dalvin cook at running back still very good. And, and defense McDonald is a, almost like a waiver at 15 overall, but it's a first round pass rusher that's coming in. And I like this guy, Tony Adams, who hasn't gotten any pub, but he's a undrafted safety from last year. You put them on your list. My breakout players.

You put them on your 10? Yeah. And I do a 10, 10 breakout players. He's number nine. And again, I do defensive players. I do guys, it's not just fantasy stuff, but I don't just throw shit at the wall. And it's like, when you hear from enough coaches at the jets that, Oh, Tony Adams in the same conversation as sauce Gardner and DJ Reed and Quentin Williams, Tony Adams, undrafted safety out of Illinois. They're like, we love what he brings came in last year when the Marcus joiner got hurt and, you know, led us in a lot of ways in the final weeks of the season. And we're super, this guy was such a standout last year as an undrafted rookie. He didn't even play in some of the preseason games

this year. So again, this is what happens when you're a good team. You get names and names and names, and it's a second and third tier guys. And I don't think Rogers is going to let them lose and just be a complete bus this year. I just don't see it. So I'm in on the jets and I've heard you and Sal and I understand if you're questioning Sal, he hasn't had the best time management skills and there have been some real head scratchers the way he handled

the quarterback situation last year. But I think Rodgers covers all of those wounds and I think that Robert Sal is an excellent defensive-minded head coach and let Rodgers and Hackett

do the offense. We'll take care of the defense and at the end of the road, I think the Jets are a playoff team. I don't know why, but I just feel like it's Miami or the Jets and it can't be both.

What about Buffalo? Miami has all the same stuff, right? If Tua just give me four straight months of two and I just think Miami's going 11-6, give me seven Tua games, I'm not as sure. For some reason, I just feel more confident

in Miami in that variable than the Jets because I know what Miami is. I for some reason, I just feel more confident in Miami in that variable than the Jets because I know what Miami is and I love the Vic Fangio piece. Ramsey, they're saying he's going to come back like beginning of December, but, you know,

they'll speed it up and I'll be like, oh my God, week eight, he's out there already. And I don't know, I just feel like they're a safer bet and I can't explain it.

It's like a gut thing. No, you saw it. You know, they added Tyreek last year and they had Tyreek and Waddle. They had two of the fastest guys. Mostert's one of the fastest players in the league. They are a track team. And on defense, they're a track team. Jalen Phillips coming off the edge is a track

athlete. These guys are as fast and as quick as you could be. Obviously, the Tua thing is a major if, and we always say, well, if he can be healthy. What you're saying is he's not going to get concussed. If Tua is not concussed, are we okay? And I think he's put on the way. But we've had other guys in recent NFL history, like Brandon Cooks, it looked like his career was over. Yeah. And he's still out there playing. And then he's had like four straight thousand

yard seasons. So I don't, the concussion thing's weird because it can cluster and then they do preventative stuff or whatever. and then all of a sudden it's not an issue anymore. What did you make? And I know a little bit with talking to the Dolphins folks, but like when Tua bit back at Ryan Clark a little bit,

I think that was the first time we have seen Tua have some edge to him publicly. But apparently that's Tua. Like he doesn't take shit and as much as people pick on him and he's a pinata on the internet and you said it in fantasy drafts, people take Tua and it's like, we'll enjoy that for three

weeks. Tua put on 10 pounds. He didn't want to put on 10 pounds. Everyone told him for his safety, put on 10 pounds. He did it. He did the work. He worked his ass off this off season. And you know, does Tua look a little thick? Yeah, he looks a little thick. He's got a big ass. He's always had a big ass, but that's how he's built. He's also a pretty proud guy. And I think at some point, there's a breaking point when all these other quarterbacks, whether it be Herbert or Burrow, are going to get these crazy contracts. He's fighting for a new contract too. And I think he bit back at Ryan Clark, but it wasn't at Ryan particularly. It was more at all of us in the media and saying, you know what, everyone, just watch your tongue. I'm going to do something this year and I'm ready to go.

I put too much work in to hear you guys talk shit about me. As a Pats fan, I'm more scared to go against them than the Jets. If he's healthy, I just don't want to guard those receivers. That's a fucking nightmare. You've owned the Jets uniform for decades so you're not scared of going into MetLife.

The Dolphins always have success against New England. I have to think of this Jets team as almost like a clean slate. And I'm thinking of it like the Lions is a clean slate. These are logos that we don't expect to be talking positively about. And I think, you know, for better or worse, and maybe I'm just a product of doing a daily TV show, I'm all in on the Jets and the Lions. And again, I can regret saying that in a couple of weeks when we actually see the football. But going into the season, I feel pretty confident in both those squads well so last year what the hype stuff i'm

trying to remember broncos and i stupidly got all in i was all in on like so you missed that but i but it wasn't just you it was a ton of people that were in on the broncos i'm trying to think what were the other the other hot teams going into last year i think everyone was really in on miami with you know tyreek and the addition and they and they they lived up to it. They were awesome out of the gate. Philly lived up to it too. Yes. Because that was another one where the odds moved from like plus 180 to win the division. And it was like, even by the start of the season. That's the first time in my memory where everyone's like, if you look at the schedule, the Eagles have a really manageable schedule. And I was always like, all these teams are good. You

can't predict it based on strength of schedule. And I always like, all these teams are good. You can't predict it based on strength of schedule. And sure enough, the Eagles just absolutely walked through their regular season and then did really well in the playoffs. That's the case for New Orleans.

You just look at the schedule, you're like, oh my God, they're not playing anybody. Let's take a break. I want to talk about out of nowhere teams. We are supported by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV. If you're a displaced fan like myself, NFL Sunday Ticket is an absolute must

have. It's been in my life, I think for the entire 21st century. And now that it's on YouTube and YouTube TV, it's easier than ever to keep up with all your favorite teams on Sunday afternoons, especially when it's one of the time zones when there's a million games at the same time. You can watch four preset games at once on multi-view. So week one, I got to give you my picks. These would be my top four games for multi-view. I would go Bengals-Browns. Can't wait to watch that one. Can't wait to see how Burrow looks. Titans-Saints. Interested in both teams. I picked both of them to win the division. So instantly I'm going to feel bad about one of them, but I really want to check out both of those teams. I got Jags-Colts. I want to see the Jags offense and I want to see what Anthony

Richardson looks like. So that's a staple. And then the best one of the early games, Niners-Steelers. I'm all in on the Steelers team then the best one of the early games, Niners, Steelers. I'm all in on the Steelers team. I'm kind of all in on the Niners too, but this could be, who knows? Could be a Super Bowl preview. Thanks to NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV for sponsoring this segment.

It's truly the best place to keep up with all your favorite teams at a market Sunday afternoon games, like my beloved Patriots playing one of the late games against the Eagles. And right now you can get $50 off your subscription when you sign up at youtube.com slash BS. Terms and blackout restrictions apply. Offer ends September 19th. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.

Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research.

And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right. So the I cannot believe they made the playoff teams. If you're just judging it based on just Fando odds, like plus 300 and up, basically.

And you're looking at this cluster of Rams, Washington, Indy, Tampa, Vegas, Houston, Arizona. Heifetz just, we found Aaron Schatz moved DVOA to a different home. Yeah, it's a new network. We had him on as a guest. He was great. Yeah, it's on FTN.

And his DVOA projections had Tampa to win the NFC South. And I was like, well, there's something I've put zero thought in, right? Just zero. Because it's like, oh, Baker, Mayfield, and Trask, post Brady, they were

awful last year. No chance. But then I started thinking like, all right, well, we've seen this every year. Last year we had Jacksonville plus 450 and Seattle plus 500, both make the playoffs. So if I gave you Rams, Washington, Indy, Tampa, Las Vegas, Houston, Arizona. I have one more team you didn't mention. Who? Chicago.

Okay. Chicago. So if I gave you all those teams and I told you four months from now I'm going to be telling you one of those teams has made the playoffs, who would you pick? Chicago Bears. This is another hype. You're like a hype addict. I'm not a hype

addict. You're like drinking hype Kool-Aid. I'm not. And I'm not a Justin Fields like, oh, Justin Fields. I think this team is going to be significantly better this year. I think DJ Moore is a major addition. I think they got better on the offensive line. They actually spent money to build that offensive line up. And I think their young defense is pretty good.

And I know they lost the last 10 games of the season. So I'm not like totally idiotic here and not self-aware of what I'm saying. But I think they have a chance to win four, five, six more games based on the fact that they were so terrible last year. And they add a lot, personnel-wise. And this is Fields' year three, and you've got to think he's been through as bad a surrounding situation

his first two years in the league as anybody. And now it's finally like things have gotten a little better, and I kind of like their team interesting one i can't get there with i can't get there with fields no you know what i like i don't really so there's that other group of the kind of can't believe it's and i have five from that group and i actually don't have any from the cannot believe it group and i know I know I'm going to be wrong. It's going to be one of those. But it's kind of in the middle ground. But Tennessee and New England, I think, are the two.

Because the Tennessee thing, they've just been written off completely. And I don't fully understand it. They're 8-3 and they just got decimated by injuries. I think they're better this year. I know Tajay Sharp, I know you've spent a couple segments on him during the preseason, but he has a chance to be this electric rookie. Just this change

of pace guy with Henry. Tannehill's another. You mentioned Cousins, how people are just kind of done with Cousins. They're like, I've been there since 35. That's Tannehill. You're right. Tannehill's another one where it's like people, now he's just done. He's gone. He had no receivers last year, no offensive line.

And their offensive line is going to be the, you know, that'll be what does them in if it doesn't happen for them. But I still feel, I trust Rabel. You got to trust Rabel. I think they had a record number of players dressed for them last year. I think they had something like 89 players

dressed for them during the season. Never a good sign. I know Michael Lombardi talked about it with you, but it's one of the greatest coaching performances. He's not overestimating that. When they went to overtime with the Chiefs in Arrowhead with Malik Willis and absolutely no offense. Vrabel had them in even better to me was

week 18. They're playing the Jaguars for a division title with Josh Dobbs, who was called up two days ago. They are a couple plays away from winning that game. So Vrabel gets into coach. He is one of the best coaches in football. Players love playing for him. Um,

I just don't know if they have enough horses to get in them and the loaded AFC this year. And you're, you're higher. You're a Jags believer. You're buying the Jags. I am just because of offense. Like Peter,

Peter King had them predicted as his number one seed, which means you're all the way in on that offense. I'm not all the way in and I don't really see it. I like their offense. I like Press Taylor, their offensive coordinator. I had him on my podcast earlier this season and he was talking about the things that they could do with Trevor Lawrence that are even different from last year.

And when you add Calvin Ridley, who was a legitimate number one wide receiver a couple of years ago, and you say, okay, we'll just drop him into an offense that was as good as any towards the end of the season. It's very easy to get excited about him. Now, here's the thing. They got some big wins last year against the Cowboys with some interceptions from Dak that were like deflected passes. They had the Tennessee situation at the end. The Chargers just absolutely just decomposed in the wildcard game.

They had some good wins last year. And I know Cousin Sal wasn't as high on Doug Peterson as others might be. But I think the coaching on the offensive side of the ball with Peterson and Press Taylor, I feel like that offense is going to perform. It's going to be on the defense if they can stop someone at the end. And I'm in on the Jaguars also as division winners, not going to the Super Bowl or anything. Well, you've heard me talk about my guy, Kenny Pickett. There was a thing this week, as you know,

I monitor the dumb preseason articles and all the quotes from the teammates. They named Kenny Pickett as a captain in year two. And I'm going to give you two quotes. One about people who weren't surprised that he became a captain in year two. And I'm going to give you two quotes. One about people who weren't surprised that he became a captain. One was left tackle Dan Moore. The way he approaches each day, the way he grasped the offense,

he really has a voice. I talked to a lot of guys about it. Kenny has it. I don't know what it is, but he has it. There's one. Center Mason Cole indicated he would have been surprised had Pickett not been named captain.

We knew it all along, Cole said. He's been a leader since he got here. It's cool to see him have the role. I'm buying everybody's Kenny Pickett stock. I'm all in. I like the way he finished last year. We rode them a couple of times, the billion dollar picks. What am I not seeing with this picket thing?

It just seems like he's going to be really good for them. The Steelers are going to be really good. They finished last year wrong. Why have they only gotten one-tenth of the Lions hype? It's interesting because they finished as good as any team in the league and he won games at the end of the season that we're like,

Kenny, we need an 80-yard drive against the Raiders on Christmas Eve. I'll go and get it. You know, we need you to go and do this against the Ravens in a big game in Baltimore. He went and got it. Like, I'll go get us that win. Um, I love Kenny Pickett, but I didn't coming out of the draft. I had no feel for it. You know, 19 other teams passed on them. It wasn't like Kenny Pickett was this hot prospect. It was that weird draft year two years ago where no one wanted any of the quarterbacks. And Mike Tomlin is sitting there at 20th overall

who had eyes on Kenny Pickett his entire time at Pittsburgh. If you've ever been to that facility, the University of Pittsburgh practices right next to the Steelers. The guys go in the hallways. They see each other. I used to work at Dave Wanstead at Fox. He's like, we were at Pitt, but one of the best things was we would take the NFL guys and just say,

hey, meet Shady McCoy, meet Aaron Donald. You're almost at an NFL facility every single day when you play at Pitt. Kenny Pickett was playing in front of Mike Tomlin. So for Tomlin to draft him, it obviously shows you. So he saw stuff. I saw it. I saw it. I know it. I'm biased. Kenny Pickett's an Ocean, New Jersey guy. He's a Jersey Shore guy. I love everything about his moxie and his attitude. He walks in, he's got swagger. He's not one of these guys who's going to talk the talk. He just kind of walks and leads by example. And those guys absolutely love playing for him. You add to the fact that there's not this huge veteran presence on that offense. So he has a chance to be that voice. It's Najee, who's in

his third year. It's George Pickens in his second year. Deontay Johnson's a young guy. Friar Moots, a young guy. So he is the leader. He comes in there and that defense is going to always be good. They're always going to show up. TJ Watt is healthy. Again, there can only be seven teams to make the playoffs. If you're saying you're high on the Steelers, well, you can't also be high on the Dolphins, the Patriots, the Ravens, the Jets, the Bills, the Chargers. That's the struggle with this thing. I did my playoff picks for Good Morning Football.

I have the Steelers as a wild card. I have the Ravens not making the playoffs. That's crazy talk. It's crazy talk. It's not that crazy. Their defense isn't that good. Thank you. And they're also in an awesome division.

So I have three playoff teams in the AFC North. Did you go with the Browns? I do. I'm going to read it to you right now. Let's go, dude. Here's what I have. People are going to think I'm drunk. I have the Pittsburgh Steelers as the one seed.

Let's go. I love it. You study this. You always talk about I've been on vacation I've been studying and then you come out and you have a take

it's not just I've been studying here's the Chiefs as the one no Steelers as the one I have the Chiefs as the two seed I have them same record

12 and 5 for both okay I have Miami as the three seed at 11 and 6 I have Tennessee at the four seed I love this.

Cincy, first wild card. 11-6. I think it's a rocky year, though. I think people get nervous the first month. And, oh, God. Uh-oh. And then they rally. Cleveland as our 6th seed.

Let's go. And New England at 9-8 in a a 5-team 9-8 tie that they somehow win to get the 7th seed. No Chargers. No Jets. No Ravens. No Bills.

No Buffalo. Yeah. Yeah. We're getting frisky. Hell yeah. Listen. You gotta bump out 6 or 7 teams from last year.

You just have to. There's only seven rooms at the end. That's it. This is it. This is like the Giants made the playoffs last year. Nobody fucking saw it coming, but this is what happens. I'm telling you, if there's a chat GPT or there's an algorithm to go viral, you just say, oh, I think team X is going to make the playoffs. Well, if you do think that, that means team Y isn't making the playoffs. Can I give you my seven real quick in the AFC? Let's rattle them off. Yeah, let's hear it.

Okay. I like the Bengals as a one seed. All right. I like the Chiefs as a two seed. As my three seed, the Jaguars. I got the Jets winning the AFC East. That's my four seed. Five, I go Bills.

I think go Bills. Six, Steelers. And then seven my home run swing that you know you always got to throw it out there one team is going to

come from nowhere I've got the Denver freaking Broncos making the playoffs a lot of people have them though that's not they're popular

here we go I'm telling you I would follow that man I'm telling you Sean Payton I've said this before to you I wasn't tight with Sean Payton for ever like he's got his people Jay Glazer was one of his. I'm telling you, Sean Payton, I've said this before to you. I wasn't tight with Sean Payton for ever. Like he's got his people. Jay Glazer was one of his guys. I'm like,

eh, not my cup of tea. He's, you know, he's older than me. He's not my style. I've got my own young coaches. I always try to, you know, talk with Sean Payton's just not gonna be my guy last year. We're paired by marriage to do this Fox show. I'm kind of like, all right, we'll see here. Sean Payton's gonna give us Parcells stories. Here we go. I freaking love the guy. I was ready to walk into traffic for the guy. Every day we went to this Fox show,

it was like a pep talk in the morning and then on Saturday night he would check in. He's like, where are we going to dinner? We're doing this as a team. And for years,

we never went out to dinner for Saturday nights. We didn't do like that. You'd get into LA and you'd tuck yourself into bed and you'd watch some college football games. Sean Payton's like,

no, we're going out as a team. It's us against the world. What's ESPN's ratings. I want to know their ratings. I want to get better than ESPN's. Who the hell watches that CBS show? Let's be better than that CBS show. Like this is what Sean Payton brings.

It's just like relentless energy to compete. And I got to think that there are a lot of those young Broncos players. They haven't been in the playoffs ever. You know, 2016 was the last time they went. Peyton Manning was the quarterback and he is shaking things up. He is rattling the cage. There's been some uncomfortable conversations there, including with the quarterback, I'm sure.

And I just believe in him. And I spoke to him this weekend and the topic of all topics, you'll love this. We were talking about Jimmy Buffett. He's a big Jimmy Buffett guy, right? Jimmy Buffett passes and Jimmy Buffett's a diehard Saints fan, was at the first Saints game ever. So I just send him a quick like condolences, whatever, you know, you do that when someone dies that you're like, are you really that close of friends with him? I don't know, like thoughts and prayers, whatever I said to him, like for Jimmy Buffett and hits me up and he's like, I've never been so excited. Like, I really love what we've got.

And, and gosh, like this feels right. Like it feels right. So I don't know. Look, is their offensive line gonna hold up? Who knows? Could this fall on its face? Maybe. But when you're talking about, you know, pick seven teams,

I'll go with Sean Payton over a lot of these coaches in the AFC. It's a great argument. And as you know, and I've talked about it a couple of pods, the new coach theory just works every year. And I looked long and hard and I was thinking about them and that if it's a nine and eight quagmire, could they get it? So you went, you went Patriots though, huh? I did. I think that defense is going to be excellent. And I, I really do feel like this is a prove it year for Belichick. This is in an I don't want to go down like this kind of year. But the Peyton thing.

So they win the Super Bowl in 2010. Yeah. I knew you were going to bring this up. So I want to ask you to throw it back in. You come with receipts. Well, they're five and seven in the playoffs since 2010. Yeah, they've had some really weird games. They missed the playoffs four times in nine years they had some

dumb losses Minneapolis Miracle you're talking the you know the Rams the pass interference some crazy losses man right so and I look back at all those Saints years and I'm like what so Sean Payton like what makes him special as a

coach and it's points it's scoring points It's scoring points. It's putting up big offense. And I don't see it with this Denver team. I don't really like any of their skill position guys. I think if you're going to rank their receivers, you would put them in the bottom third of receiver rooms.

The running backs, like Javante Williams, he had a real injury last year. He's not going to be 100% this year. And the Wilson piece, I don't get it all. So here's where I have them pigeonholed. Slow start.

They figure out the Russell Wilson piece by like week eight. Stidham's sitting there. House in our keeper draft last night, he spent like nine bucks on Jared Stidham. Yeah, he's like, I'm in on Stidham. I think he's going to be the QB by November.

And I could see them as the late bloomer, kind of Steelers last year, slow start. Figuring out. Oh, he figured out. But I think it's going to take two months. I don't think it happens right away. So that's how I talked myself out of it. And I think ultimately,

he'll build the team that he's used to having, but it's going to be next year, not this year. They're going to be pissing vinegar, though. Like, they're going to... He gets these guys in a lather and gets them going. They are going to be ready every week. I get it, but that Wilson trade's a disaster. They gave up so many assets and got nothing back. Here's my Wilson insight. Oh, okay. I'll tell you when... Oh, okay. No, I'm excited for this. Stop the presses.

No, I'm excited for a zag on russell wilson be ready i don't think sean took the job because of russell wilson it wasn't like hey i'm getting i'm getting sean took the job because it's a denver freaking broncos it's a legendary franchise and the owners offered him somewhat close to 20 million dollars and it was like yes let's go and do this let's go and do it that's fine um but it it's a, we trust you. Here's a lot of money. This is a rebuild. We don't have to win the Super Bowl next year. Can you actually build us a real football program? This is not something that just happens in 23. Okay. But new owners, so they're coming in and they want to go take a big swing. I said it

to him. I feel like it's a super max contract. It's the first one we've seen with coaching and it might, it might screw some of these owners over. You talk about Deshaun Watson's contract for what, for what Peyton got. Now you've all these young coaches who are coming to their owners and being like, well, why should Sean Peyton make that much more than me? So he changes the landscape there, but the owners gave him a giant check and they're like, we're in on you. All right. So he comes in, he's all in, he's excited. Um, let's see about Russell Wilson. The two of them had very little to know with each other. He coached him in the Pro Bowl a couple years ago,

so he was fine. Drew Brees lives in San Diego, and that's where Russell Wilson lives. The two of them have this relationship. And through Brees, Russ and Peyton started talking. They go to the NBA playoff games together. They go to the Nuggets games together. And then I think that they're really, really in a good place right now where Sean Payton, though not coming to Denver to coach

Russell Wilson, it wasn't like that was the shining thing. He's excited as hell. And Russell Wilson has gotten his body in shape. I'm hearing 10 to 15 pounds slider. And I know everyone comes out of training camp in the best shape of their life. But in this case, it's a different body type for Russ where, you know, Sal always jokes about the rumbling, bumbling, stumbling Russell Wilson. But like, yeah, I think Russell's going to be mobile this year. And that's the hope. Oh, that would be a bonus. Well, then you take that. 45 million a year. I would hope we'd be able to move around. list that isn't anywhere on the fantasy list. And Matthew Barry is not going to mention him and none of the, you know, Danny Heifetz and those guys aren't talking about Greg Dulcich is there like do everything tight end, the second year guy to UCLA. I think Sean, I think Sean's got a big piece for him in the offense, use them in a lot of different ways. And they've got a lot of young talent and they've got a quarterback who's won a Superbowl and has been through everything together.

Look, I think that Denver with Sean is going to be a relevant team this year and I've got them in the playoffs, but if they just miss it and they're nine and eight and they're eight or nine, I think they're one of those squads that say, okay, in any other year, they could have made it. Let's take a break and we'll do the NFC quick. All right. So I gave you my AFC playoff teams, and now I'm going to give you the NFC playoff teams that I picked. Okay. And when I get to the last team, we're going to talk about them. Here we go.

Number one seed, Philly. Number two seed, San Francisco. Number three seed, New Orleans. Schedule related, that's it. Okay. Number four, Green Bay. Highest wildcard, Dallas. And then I have Seattle at nine

and eight in the sixth seed. And the New York football giants as the seventh seed at nine and eight. Here it is. I think they're better than they were last year. Okay. We talked about it a little on the over-unders, but

to me, this is a day ball pick. I just think, to me, he has moved into that Tomlin, Vrabel kind of area where it's like,

I just don't see how you're going to have a losing record unless like catastrophic injuries happen. You're just, you guys are too well coached. And

I like some of the stuff they did with their defense and the Wink Martindale stuff where it's just like, they have like a fucking million D-backs now. They have a pass rush and a million D-backs. And there's going to be like, what, two, three games? Somebody will rush for like when Carolina just ran for like 300 yards against Detroit last year. They'll have two or three games like that where we'll be like, oh my God, they ran the balls down our throat. The Eagles did it to them every single time they played them.

We look awful. Oh, wow. The Giants. But they're going to get to nine and eight and they might even get to 10 and seven. This is your team. What are your Giants takes? I've got the Giants in the playoffs as well. Yes, here we go.

I've got the Giants in the playoffs as well. But at the great sacrifice of another team, here are my seven playoff teams. Number one seed, the Niners. I think they are the one seed. Number two, the Eagles. Number three, I also have the Saints as a three seed hosting a playoff game for the Lions. I've got the Lions winning the NFC North.

And then it gets a little frisky. I like the Vikings to make the playoffs. Some late Vikings buzz in the prediction circles. I think the Brian Flores addition is, you know, they were a good team as was and then you get Flores in there. I like the Seahawks a lot.

I almost had the Seahawks if the Niners weren't so loaded. I'd have Seahawks as a division winner. And then I have two of the Giants, which means I left the Cowboys out of my NFC playoff picture. Wow, this is like me leaving off the Bills.

Listen, this happens every year. We have shockers. Some team is like, there's a chance that the Bills don't, this happens every year. We have shockers. Some team is like, there's a chance that the Bills don't make the playoffs. I'm sorry. And there's a chance the Cowboys don't. So what's the case for Dallas? Because, I mean, Dallas has an awesome defense.

Sure do. So how does it go wrong with that defense? I think Dan Quinn is a NFL head coach up and down and wherever he wants to go and is an awesome leader of men. And that defense is legit. I don't know how you let Kellen Moore walk out that building as offensive coordinator.

They were the fourth ranked offense last year. I think in Kellen's four years, there is OC. They were the second ranked offense. I think they put up the most passing yards. They put up a top five rushing offense every year. I think they're going to miss a few guys there. I think Dalton Schultz will be missed.

I think Zeke Elliott will be missed. I think kellen moore will be immensely missed And this is nothing against mike mccarthy as it looks like it's a zero-sum game and you're saying well you must be saying I just I mean you're telling me that okay kellen moore put up those huge numbers as offensive coordinator and they're going to Improve with him out the building and in in la I think they're going to really miss his presence I don't think they're going to score as many points as they did in recent years. And I think that offense takes a step back. And so if that's the case, I think the Giants are very steady and they're loaded in every

position. And I think the Giants got better. I'm going with the Giants over the Cowboys this year in the NFC East. Can I imitate every Cowboys fan right now? We've owned the Giants for six years. I know. They have. Fuck you, Schrager. Typical Giants

bullshit. Listen, this is all going to come down to this Sunday night game. Week one. You're right. We'll see. But like if the Giants can come in and actually handle Dallas and do well and win that game, I think you're going to be right. And in general, I

like both of them as playoff teams, but I do think, I was trying to think, who's going to be the, oh my God, what's going wrong with that team team? Which we have every year. Last year was the Rams. We knew by the end of September, we're all looking at the Rams going, oh, oh no. Whoa, we were way wrong on this team. I find it harder to believe with Dallas' defense that's going to happen, but I also could see one of those weird years where it's like,

man, the Pythagorean theorem has them at 12-5, but they're headed for 9-8. It is conceivable. They're not a 5-win team. They're one of those 9-10-win teams that just missed the playoffs. It's like a season-went-to-hell kind of thing. Yeah, and it's one of these deals where TV win teams that just missed the playoffs. It's like a season went to hell kind of thing. Yeah. And it's, it's one of these deals where,

you know, TV networks would cry in their pillows over this. The T the ratings do great when the Cowboys are good and they're always on prime time and all this stuff. I think they made a really interesting decision, letting Kellen Moore walk out that door. And I think everyone just kind of brushed over. It was like,

ah, we'll shot and we'll come in. And Mike McCarthy's an offensive coach. I'll be fine. You know, Kellen and Dak were really tight. Kellen was Dak's backup for many years

and then he was his quarterback's coach and he was his offensive coordinator and Dak has been a really good NFL quarterback. Do you tell me that you give him this confidant, this guy that the two of them have been together forever,

then suddenly he walks out the door and now Dak's going to take a giant leap and be even better? Well, maybe. And maybe Kellen Moore was holding him back. I don't see that as the case. I,

to me, Dak is a, what do we got here? Guy too. We'll see. Cause I had a giant span. I was, I caught a giant span that I know who's really dialed in and is usually right.

And last year was telling me we're going to be better than people think. And I was, and I was like, what do you think of this week one? And he's like, look, we can get to Dak. This is it. Dak doesn't like to be hit. Dak's not good when he's pressured. And we can get to him.

He was like, we're going to win week one. It's happening. We are going to get to him. We're going to make him uncomfortable. And he does not like to be uncomfortable. And it's true. Like Dak's, I think what people think, and we talk about this all the time, but what people think Dak is versus what he's actually been, it's two different conversations. I love, I love Dak in certain moments, but like, if you're just looking at, okay, now pick your top five quarterbacks in the league. Dak's probably not on that list.

And then if you're saying, he's definitely not on that list. What do you mean? So then if you're taking away a really trusted offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach and you're saying we're better off without him, well then, okay, I got to see it first. That's it. I got to see it first. I don't know what this offense looks like.

Is CeeDee Lamb... He's talked about as a number one. If you're going to rank him against the other number one receivers, I don't think he's one of the 10 best. He's talked about it like that. He's considered that way. I mean't think he's one of the 10 best. He's talked about it like that. You know, he's considered that way.

I mean, he's a very good player. I worry about Brandon Cooks holding up for a whole season because of the concussion stuff we mentioned before. And then Pollard has always been in this situation where he's like this glorified, awesome luxury.

He was amazing. He's a Ferrari. But now he's like, do you have 300 carries and 75 catches in you? By the way. Or is Deuce Vaughn going to be somebody who can step up for them? I don't know.

You're going to get excited by this. It's a little bit of a tangent, but it's Cowboys related. I hear Zeke looks amazing. I'm not kidding. I hear- On the pats. Yes. And I hear that he's in the best shape that he's been in and that he has been the leader.

I've got, you know, your listeners might roll their eyes at, oh, I've got stories about like people in New England are telling me that Zeke showed up and it was like, all right, really good meeting, really good work. And then in the few weeks he's been there has immediately become like this veteran leader where it's like, Oh shit. Like Zeke Elliott's been in a lot of big games and has been a star player everywhere he's been. And he has taken this team and kind of this offense under his wing as like the veteran

leader. And Ramon Dre is the number one. Don't get me. Don't get it twisted. Zeke Elliott's going to be very important to the Patriots this year. And I think the Cowboys might miss Zeke Elliott quite a bit. Well, and he also saves some miles on Ramond Dre. He's a good goal line guy.

But you're right. There's a definite different vibe to this Pats team. And the question is going to be the offensive line, which is why I had them. I was ready to pick them to win the AFCs. And the offensive line stuff really makes me nervous. And we'll see how it goes. I think they're going to do some more RPO stuff to kind of take a little

heat off that and just move fast and go quick. But this week one matchup for them is a disaster. It's like literally the worst team they could play with offensive line questions. But I'm with you. The vibe's different. Last year was

just not... Tom Curran wrote a great piece the other day about like, last year was just not a Patriots year. And can they at least get their identity back of, we don't beat ourselves.

We're really well coached. We're smart. We maximize the people we have. We're tough. We're gritty. We stay in games. Like, can they get that back back or was that just attached to Brady? Last year was their worst year in recent memory. And they're that Bengals crazy Ramondre fumble away and the Jacoby Myers play away for making the playoffs. So as bad as they were, as bad as they were and as no receivers

that they had, like I put them on my breakout list and I've talked about them with you over text. Like, Pop Douglas, Pop Douglas is going to be a thing. This is a six round pick, you know, out of Liberty and he's five foot eight. But like, they really like Pop Douglas.

They really like Zeke. They really like the other rookie out of LSU, Boutte. Like, they like these guys. And that's a lot more than they had last year. And then you add in Bill O'Brien. I think the Patriots are going to be significantly better.

But there are only seven rooms at the end. This is true. Is there a guy you're looking at as an elevating into superstar status guy, if you had to bet? Is it Lawrence? Lawrence seems like the odds-on favorite for this question. Well, the national conversation, I think you're going to start putting Lawrence and Herbert in that same Burrow, Mahomes, Allen conversation, and Jalen Hurts, of course. But if we're talking who's going to step up and be in that next year, I think Kenny Pickett is that guy this year. I

think you mentioned it. I think they're going to win a lot of games, and I think Kenny Pickett's going to be excellent. And then on defense, I really like Jalen Phillips from the Miami Dolphins. He is a pass rushing demon who was just getting started at the end of last season and kind of is the leader there. I think he's going to step up and be in those defensive player of the year conversations. So MVP this year, I'm so torn. I might go way off the board. I talked about this with my podcast producers. I was like, this might be that weird year where if Christian McCaffrey has a thousand and a thousand and the Niners win a bunch of games, all those quarterbacks kind of cancel each other out. And it's like, let's give it to a running back. So I might go Christian McCaffrey, my MVP, just because I think so many

of these quarterbacks are going to put up big numbers and have big years. And unless, unless we get some like crazy breakout season from a quarterback we didn't expect, like we got from Jalen Hurts. I don't know why you would put one over the other. And I don't think we're just going to, by default, give it to Mahomes or Allen if they don't have the same kind of seasons they've had the last couple of years.

I have Hurts. I think it's the best odds. I think it's still 12-1 on Fandel. But I think that Philly offense is going to be the best offense in the league. And I think that's... You think it's going to be Detroit, it sounds like. I love Detroit this year, but I don't think Jared Goff's winning any MVP awards.

But I love... I think he's going to have 4,900 yards rushing, 12 rush TDs, the same kind of efficiency stuff he had last year. He was awesome last year. He was. I think he stuff he had last year. Like he was awesome last year. He was. I think he'll be better this year. By a,

by a large margin, they have the best offensive line in football and the best offensive line coach in Jeff Stoutland. And they, Maya Lata,

who they just gave a huge deal with, had never played football before and they grew him into a dominant tackle. They are so good on the offensive line that they

can get away with some things. Um, my only fear with Philly and it's not a, I still have them winning the division and being great. Last year, they got really great production from Jason Kelsey, from Lane Johnson, from Brandon Graham, and from Fletcher Cox. They're four veterans.

They're bringing them all back and they're all back like, Old guys. Yeah, we've covered football a long time. And it's like, can they do it again? And last year was amazing that they all stayed healthy and all played such big roles. But you're kind of banking on them again as these other young guys start coming up in the ranks.

Philly's going to be good for a long time. I'm just curious to see if all four of those guys can make it from wire to wire and still produce. I thought they were excellent last year and just getting Jalen Carter, who I think everybody thinks is the best guy in that draft, just adding him, not to mention all the other stuff they did. They didn't really lose anybody.

And they, you know, they, they took their chance with running back to not spend money at that position, which is kind of the way to go. I mean, that's what, that's why I thought it was so weird. Like Gibbs better be fucking awesome for Detroit for them not to take defense at 12 and 18. And they better think it's like a game changer. Yeah. And like DeAndre Swift goes to the Eagles and he's had a great camp and it's like, shit, DeAndre Swift was in second round pick and has been really good in the NFL. The Eagles didn't take such a major dive letting Miles Sanders walk off. They got, you know, Rashad Petty and they got DeAndre Swift and they like Gainwell. So they've got three guys. It's not like they're just going out there

and they're suiting up with no running back. Well, and that's also a position where you can, if you're panicking in October, you could just trade a third rounder for Tyler Algier or something like that. I think it's always easy to grab a running back. I love that guy. That guy got thrown out of my auction yesterday.

Went for nine bucks because people are like, oh, that's the guy that ran for six yards of carry for like two months. Thousand yard season as a fifth round pick at a BYU. And now we're going to take a running back eighth overall. All right.

Yeah. All right, Schrags. Say hi to the good morning football people for us. I will. We're having you on a tunder in the season. But I thought this was good.

I like when we disagree. It kind of when we disagree. I think this is a weird season. I don't feel great about it. I've scaled down my future bets. Really, Pittsburgh is the thing I like the most, but other than that, I think this is a really hard year. Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, and Bills at AFC East is a a conundrum and you and I could not be more opposed on how it's going to go. And AFC North. That's the beauty of this thing. I think you do a lot of work.

You talk to everybody. You know everyone. And I do the same. And it's like, all right, we should all have the same outputs when we get to September 5th. And we don't. And that's the beauty of it.

And also the 17-game season, it's so long that it just feels like each team is having five different seasons during the season. My's so long that it just feels like each team is having like five different seasons during the season. So my teams, I like quarterbacks. I like offensive coordinators and I like coaches and that's how I usually go by. And I know that's insulting to all the defensive coordinators in the world and all the defensive. In today's NFL, I think you need to score points in this marathon of a season. Shregs, great to see you. Thanks for coming on. Thank you,

bro. Great being back. All right, that's it for the podcast. Don't forget, new rewatchables went up, Lost in Translation with me and Amanda Dobbins. Don't forget to check out all of our football content on the podcast on TheRinger.com and TheRinger Fantasy Football Guide as well,

plus all the rankings that we're doing this week. Steven Ruiz's QB ranking's already up. Shil Kapadia's trade value coming. We're going to rank players. Plus all the rankings that we're doing this week. Steven reasons, QB rankings already up. She'll Kapati is trade value coming. We're in rank players. Check all of it out of the ringer.com. Thanks to Steve Cerruti and Kyle Creighton for producing this podcast. And I will see you on Thursday. Million dollar picks,

Superbowl pick, probably some team USA stuff and a lot more. Can't wait. I want to see them on a way. USA stuff and a lot more. Can't wait. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas

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