The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Best College QBs With Todd McShay. Plus, the Irresistible Jags, the Resistible Steelers, and NFL Week 4 Picks With Joe House

Episode Date: September 26, 2025

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Todd McShay to catch up on college football QBs before discussing the NFL “Cut the s***” QBs and Drake Maye (3:33). Then, House joins Bill to make their Ringer 107 picks for the week and close with a Ryder Cup discussion (01:02:46). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Todd McShay and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Paid endorsement. All right, Todd McShay is here. It's been a while. Good to see you. Good to see you, man. How are we doing? How are we feeling about football season so far? College football seems like a B-minus.

NFL's like a B-plus? I think it's going to go to B-plus for college football this weekend. Oh, good. Yeah, it's a big weekend. We've got, obviously, we've got Penn State and Oregon. we've got Georgia and Alabama, we've got LSU Ole Miss. So there's like nine games with ranked teams that are, it's a pretty wild slate. But it's been a frustrating year, man.

It's like taxi cab confessions for me coming on with you. I've been like tiptoeing around it on my show because I'm trying to be careful. And there's some young quarterbacks that I think are playing at a really high level. The veterans who I was, I came into the air is like screaming at everybody. This is the golden age. We've got all these last year's class was subpar. This could be closer to two years ago in 2024 when we had six drafted in the top 12.

Yeah. And then the season starts and it's like Nuss-Meyer's struggling. Clubnix regressed. Arch is not who we thought he was. Sellers gets injured and it's kind of up and down. So it's been a little frustrating. So I'm here to talk about it with you. All right.

Let's go rapid fire because I went back and I found your newsletter when you basically did, like, your top 15 heading into the season for, like, a mini mock draft, right? You clubbed Nick first in the mock draft at Clemson. They're one and three. There's, like, there's possible, like, are we sure he's going to finish the season as the starter kind of stuff happening? Like, yeah, I mean, we've seen this before. Sanders was won at one point last year on some of the boards and he fell to the fifth round. But were you shocked that it turned out this badly this fast?

Yes. Yes. And I'm like here to freely admit it. I spent some time at the Manning Passing Academy this summer, kind of, you know, just talking to people and getting to know who he is as a guy and he's everything you stand for and a leader and just a great human being and attacks the process. And we saw last year, because the year, back in 20, 20, 23, he was, it was kind of disappointed. And then last year as the season progressed, like he started to carry. Clemson, as they got on that run late in the year. They obviously got to the A.C. Championship game won that. Got to the playoff. Even in the loss to Texas, he did some really good things. And I remember sitting there in Tibido, Louisiana, with the general manager.

And he hasn't, like, he didn't quite dive into the quarterbacks yet. And I'm like, he's not there yet, talking about Clubbed. But I think he's ready to take that next step. And so far, it's been really disappointing. He lost

his top receiver in the first game, like the first quarter of the first game against LSU, Antonio Williams. Williams comes back this past week and he just, he doesn't look comfortable in the pocket. He doesn't look comfortable with his reeds. He's panicky. It's not at all what I expected. And it's, it's disappointing for Clemson fans, obviously, it's disappointing for NFL general managers who thought like me he could take that next step.

And so you look around the landscape, right, and not to shift gears, the thing I'm most shocked about because I didn't have him on my preseason ranking, so I'm not sure if you'd even bring him up. Dante Moore from Oregon is the best passer of the football in all of college football. He's he's what the NFL is looking for. And the problem with Dante was he came out and he wasn't like great in the elite 11 stuff and all of that. He went to UCLA and that thing was a mess. I think he started five games. Transfers last year, we don't hear about him reports out of Eugene this summer is like he's in a quarterback battle has not established himself and then he comes into the season and you got and the reason I've been slow to bring him

up and I finally talked about what I saw on tape on just the show yesterday. Yeah. The reason I've been slow is like I have a responsibility right and I talk to general managers and what I don't like is head coach is calling me in the college football and saying well you got my guy in the first round and he's not ready yet and he so I'm really careful with these young quarterback. especially. We've seen that from Trent Richardson to Trubisky to Mark Sanchez, like the 13 starts and inexperienced guys, it's not working. And so I don't want to like jump, you know, jump in head first and be like, I'm all in on this guy, but I'm all in on this guy. Wow. Okay.

Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State. None of them are good. None of them. And so I'm saying this before Penn State this week, it'll white out night game, happy valley, all of it. And it could, you know, it may not go perfectly. But when you see it and you know it, like it's just there. His ability to drive the ball down the field, he reminds me like he's just a smooth criminal throwing the ball. He's got some parts of like Jordan Love.

He's got some aspects of like CJ Stroud at his best. He's got some Baker Mayfield to him. Catchable ball. driving it down the field, using his eyes to see the whole thing and manipulate defenders. He's just the best pure passer in the country. And I can now say that after four games.

Could you see a world where he's the number one pick next April? I absolutely could, but I hope he's not. I hope he's not in the 2026 draft. For him, not for Oregon, even though obviously Will Stein is that a tremendous... I mean, Will Stein came in there kind of a relative unknown

as the offensive coordinator of Oregon. Yeah. he had he look what bow knicks did under him but remember bow bo necks was kind of a laughing stock in NFL scouting circles at auburn that well now it's circling back i hear you i hear you but he's the 12th overall pick he played really well his rookie year so i'm just saying but but what he what willstein got and then what he developed him into is the 12th overall pick then he gets dylan gabriel who's not nearly as talented as bow nix and not nearly as talented is dante more and he's a third round pick and won the starting job.

Pickets out. Shador's on the sideline watching during practice. So another year with Will Stein, I think, would be the best thing for Dante Moore. But if you're asking me right now, based off of a tiny sample size and four starts at Oregon, I think he's tracking to be the number one overall pick if things continue to play out. Yeah. That's why I wanted to jump the gun here and get that in there. Well, the four you had before the season, and I love these lists because it just

shows you like we're you're trying to not you just everybody we're trying to predict kids that are 1920 21 22 right and yeah who the fuck knows what's happening with them off the field they might have like some girlfriend break up with them they might have some roommate they don't like you just don't know it's like all the variables in place but you had club nick first you have nussmeyer fourth you had cellar sixth and you had mendoza 15th and then penn state quarterback hours not in there Metteer, who people have gotten excited about this season, the Beller quarterback, Carson Beck. We got to talk about the becassants.

Yep. And then Dante Moore. And then we didn't mention Arch Manning, who got the most attention of everybody before the year. But now, I mean, there's no, I mean, you didn't think he was coming out to begin with. You were pretty adamant. Like, he is not coming out. This will not happen.

But now there's no way he's coming out anyway, right? Yeah, I tried to warn everyone starting back in May. You know, and I have a great deal of respect. of relationship with the Mannings, and I can absolutely separate, you know, business from friendship. And even Archett is best on tape last year just wasn't ready. Yeah. And there were some things, some warning signs that you saw on tape, right?

And Sarkeesian, there's a reason that the Mannings chose Steve Sarkeesian, right, in Texas, because he can kind of mask things and develop quarterbacks better than the vast majority of people in college football. You think that's a huge reason why they picked them? I think the developmental aspect of it. And Texas is resources and everything that the program has going for them. But I'd be lying to you if I told you, I thought we'd see this. I mean, from the mechanics to the lack of certainty and decisiveness as a thrower to just the flat-out misses,

he's got a long way to go. And I'm not saying he can't. And we saw Jaden Daniels was a third, fourth round prospect going into his final year at LSU. He was considered like a fifth, sixth, seventh round guy when he came to LSU. So, like, Cam Ward was a fifth round. If you polled NFL scouts like Pete Thamble does for game day when he polls NFL scouts for, you know, Cam Ward was a fourth fifth coming into last year. He's the number one overall pick.

Even September, there was no chance. He was not on anybody's. radar to go first. No. You know what? I think a big piece of this is because I was watching, I watched that entire first game Archmany had. He just couldn't have been more impressive.

And you think about the hype that comes in. I was trying to think, is there another sport that we have where there's more pressure on somebody who's 19, 20, 21 years old? Maybe, I mean, you would know better, but maybe the NBA when a guy comes out of high school. Yeah, but the thing with the NBA is they're, even if they come in after one year and they're 19, they're always going to a baby. bad team. They're not in a situation where there's like spotlight expectations, title chances at stake, any of that stuff. You kind of come in and it's like a bonus if they're good in the first

couple years. Like Anthony Edwards when he went to Minnesota, nobody remembers like what team he was on that first year. It's like, oh, he might be good. This is great. You have a situation like some of these guys that come in where not only are they being discussed in like the best possible ceiling of whatever could happen when they haven't even done anything yet. But then you also have like these giant, giant games, all the discourse about it. You're going to a stadium with 80,000 people. And I just feel like when it craters, it feels like it would crater the most in college football for Cuba.

Arch is an economy right now in Austin. Like, yeah. When you, I can't remember a guy who hasn't been a true starter coming into a year where it was like Heisman favorite, like for, like Fandool, you know, like these are, these These are not places that lose money. Number one overall picked by a lot of people who didn't kind of weren't in the know, but a lot of people who were highly respected in this space. And meanwhile, you didn't even think he was coming out.

No, no. What about the Manning history and the Manning's devotion to process and development? And Eli going back for his fifth year and Peyton going back for his final year at Tennessee. Like, what about that told anybody that he would be coming out after this year? Right. But it was a perfect. store and even talking to people in a circle right like that weighs on a young man all of that attention he can't go to the convenience store and grab a bottle of water and a candy bar without

like people like filming him and taking pictures so like you're thrust into all of that and by the way you may not be quite as talented as some people thought and your mechanics and the way you trust it's not there yet so it's been and and text is coming off the college football playoff. They're talking like, oh, well, that was, that was cute with Quinn Ewers last year. But, uh, but now we got our guy national championship in the state of Texas. Like, I can't imagine more. And about the back of his jersey says, Manick.

Well, how about first game, Ohio State on the road, 80,000 people? Matt Patricia, right? Yeah, and I placed it outside of Michigan, nobody goes and wins. Like, it's just, it couldn't have been a, a harder setup for, for a young man to walk into. All right. So you had Nussmeyer fourth and he brings a lot of stuff to the table that I personally like that I feel like at some point I'm going to translate that there's some leadership

charisma stuff with him that I was overvalue when I just kind of floated into college football and I'm like, oh, that guy seems like. But it's been disappointing for him too. So what's going on with him? It has been so far. Of all the guys who have struggled, I'm still hopeful with Nussme. Meyer that he's going to kind of start to put it together. He's got some new faces around him.

He's got four new offensive linemen. As you know, their best one was drafted by the Patriots, Will Campbell. By the way, I've enjoyed it. I've enjoyed the Will Kingbler. It's a little bit of a bully. That was a fun five-month, you and I going back and forth and just watching your whole mindset change on that. Listen, I got, I didn't decided not to get freaked out by somebody's arms being a half-inch

shorter than they should be. Or an inch or an inch and a half. Whatever it is. I just decided not to freak out. Anyway, I interrupted. No, no. Nussmeyer plays the game neck up better than any other quarterback in the country. What made Nussmeyer so enticing and intriguing last year was his aggressive style.

But it came with, you know, it came with some of the mistakes and some of the, like, the critical moments or he was trusting it too much. or overly aggressive. And so I've now seen him kind of overcorrect where it seems like it's very clear. LSU now has a defense. They didn't have one last year. LSU has a semblance of a run game, although not great,

but they didn't have it all running. One of the worst running games of a Power 5 school or Power 4 school in all of college football last year. So he has been trained by Brian Kelly and that staff that, hey, you don't have to carry this team like you did last year. And so he was trying to play within the construct of the team. And I think it's leading to a little bit more like hesitation and not as like John Mateer.

I don't know if you've watched him at all from Oklahoma. Let's talk about him because he seems like another one who's gaining steam. He's a he's a lunatic. Yeah. And I know he's got the hand injury. And so now it's a setback and he could be out three, four weeks. But I suspect he'll come back and it will be right back at it. I mean, he's, he's a different cat.

You talk about, like, the work ethic and the competitiveness. I remember there's this play against Texas Tech last year. I'm watching Washington State before he transferred. Texas Tech, fourth quarter, up like 34 to 17, midway through the fourth quarter, pick up a first down, let's run out this clock, let's get out of here, right? He picks up the first down and goes bolting towards this left sideline, gets tracked down, cuts, and at that point, it's like, come on, John, just step out of bounce, right? Yeah.

cuts back inside, takes off. He runs like a 4-5. He looks like a full-back. I met him in person. I'm like, no, where's John? Like the mannings, the manning's brought in like a guy, a full-back to catch some outlets. He's got these huge legs.

But he cuts back in running like a 4-48-450 and goes darting down towards the end zone. Two defenders come converge on him. And I'm watching it, like sitting here in my office with my remote, and I'm like, just go down, just slide. and he looks up these two defensive backs and starts stiff armoring them, both of them. And I was like, oh, this guy's built different.

He's just a competitive lunatic. So who's the comparison to him? Because that seems like an unusual and a phone quarterback. I think he's a faster Baker Mayfield. He's got a good arm, but Baker's got a stronger arm. But he plays with that urgency and that excitement and that like, just like there's no throw he's not, he's no throw that he's afraid to attempt.

Yeah. So it does get him into trouble, a little bit like Nussmeyer a year ago, but he does so many things in terms of driving the ball down the field and showing up in clutch moments. I, like, if he comes back and plays the way he was playing prior, and he bet on himself, it was like Flacco that year with the Super Bowl run. Yeah. Totally bet on himself.

He could have gone to Wisconsin. He could have gone to, like, he had all these different offers. He looked at Oklahoma and said, I got to show that this style works in the SEC, and I get to prove it. And by the way, outside of maybe Florida, I don't know if there's a team in the country that has a tougher schedule.

They play five ranked opponents to finish out the year. And that's after Texas. And that's after they've already played Michigan and Auburn. So he bet on himself, and so far he's shown it. And if he comes back and plays the same clip that he was playing,

I think Mateer's going to be a first round draft pick. High first round, mid first round, or lower first round? I could seem more like a Jackson in dart range, you know, like mid-late, you know, I think, I think there will be some intrigued that he's not the tallest guy. He does, his mechanics are kind of all over the place, so he leaves four or five throws on the field. The teams fall in love with the guy. They fall in love with the person. The guy. And what he can be if we, if we drill in some of the footwork stuff

and all that. Like, yeah. Tell me about Sellers and Mendoza, because you had Seller's 6 and Mendoza 15. before the year. Mendoza's had a little climb, right? He has. He's played really well. Let's start with sellers. I think a lot like Dante Moore, but even more emphasis for me.

The same with more sellers and Mendoza. They can all be eligible. They can all come back and be in that 2027 draft, okay? Yeah. Sellers is the furthest away development-wise. I've already said, Nussmeyer is the best in terms of neck up.

Dante Moore's the best pure passer in all of college football. Is that a rating for you, neck up? Do you have like a... I think it's going to have to be from now on a neck... I like my neck up rankings. I don't know what the scale would be. He's number one neck up in the neck up board. But Sellers is the most physically gifted of all of them.

He does things like athletically and then throws he makes that are just like very few people can do that. But like we said some of the same stuff about Anthony Richardson, right? Oh, boy. Too soon. No, I know. I know. But I just, I'm very hopeful that whether it's at South Carolina or if you transfer somewhere, whatever it is, that Sellers comes back for another year. He had the injury, kind of a setback for just a minute. This is such a weird sport, by the way, that you've done this now like three times.

There's just in the last 20 minutes where you're projecting like, you know, wherever he is, wherever he transfers next year. Like, this is just the sport we have now where we, we've done. have no idea. No, no, it's not, I'm just saying it's like, we have no idea where this guy's going to be next year because that's just, this is ring around the rosy now. It's not, it is. It is. And honestly, here's like, just take away like my love for college football and like the game and the sport and all of it. Just as an NFL evaluator, what would Bo Nix be without that transfer? Oh, so you're pro. I like this. You're pro ring around the rosy. What would

Cam Ward be if he didn't go from incarnate word to Washington State to Miami? What would Jaden Daniels be if you stayed at Arizona State and came out early? Carson Beck right now. What about Carson Beck? So it's not always the best

fit, and we can get to Beck in a minute. That was the right fit moving from Georgia to Miami. For some of these guys, like go be in a more of a pro-style system. Go get a new fresh set of coaching and put your eyes on something different.

um go develop in the second place jaden daniels was ready when he came in man bow knicks was ready but the ceiling like i had a second round grade on bow i'm not i'm just not the biggest fan but but you can't tell me he wasn't ready right all these guys are coming in with 50 60 starts you know yeah and they're they're more ready and it goes back to the parcels stuff from years ago you can tweak the numbers a little bit but parcells was on it like be a college graduate, be a starter for three years, have 20, have 30 starts,

have a bunch of wins. So I just think it's important experience. It's why I hate sitting here on your show, which is going to have more eyes and viewers, unfortunately than mine. But like, but seriously, like, and saying Dante Moore is the best. Your show is doing great just for the record.

Thank you. I appreciate it. And then we're loving it. But I hesitate, and that's why I've been hesitant to, come out and say this stuff. But more is the best. And Sellers is the most gifted. I love it. Well, yeah, I trust you completely. So when you're, when you go all in on somebody, I'm just, I just follow you. You did it last year. Yeah. Yeah, I mean,

you nailed the draft last year. You're red hot right now. You got to keep the momentum going, right? We got to take a break. And then I want to finish this and talk about some NFL guys that I have a fun gimmick for. The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by Fandul. It is one of the biggest weeks of the year, Fandall is turning into a mega, full-on celebration. Fandil Boost Fest, every day,

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RG dash help.com. Call 8887-89-777 or visit CCPG.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday ticket. My friend, NFL Sundays are back. You won't want to miss the action.

NFL Sunday ticket and YouTube TV, another friend of mine, lets you catch every game, every Sunday, all in one place. And now get NFL Sunday ticket month to month and cancel any time. Head to YouTube. slash BS and sign up now. Local and national games on YouTube TV, NFL sending ticket for out of market games, excludes digital only games and commercial use. If you cancel YouTube TV, you will lose access to NFL Sunday ticket. Terms of Bargo's device and content restrictions. Apply. Commercial use excluded every month. Renews every month during the 20, 25 regular season cancel anytime. We didn't talk about Mendoza. What are you seeing? Indiana QB. I'm seeing a guy that's found his home. Again, he can come back for another year. I don't know that he's going to, like, he completed all but too

passes against Illinois, right? He comes out and, and he kind of was like a little bit up and down. They were trying to be vanilla and not show what they were doing. Frankston, Schenetti, I know you love my guy, Mensch. Steve Mench. He is the great line of

the RCF, the resting Signetti face. And that's who he is. He's just kind of crusty, but he pops off. But Signetti wouldn't let Mendoza go to the Manning Pass Academy to Summer. He wanted him there in the bubble working the scheme it's rPO base it's all like quick decisions fast eyes and so

when you get done with 30 throws in a game maybe only seven or eight are like NFL style throws that you can start to create a catalog on so he's going to have this high percentage and the numbers are going to look great but when you dig into him he's six five he's 225 he's got mobility he's got a good arm. He can be inconsistent. And so I want to see as the season progresses and the schedule gets harder. But there's talent there. And I've talked to some people in the league who are like, yeah, like I see more third round. I've talked to some people like, you know, if he puts it all together, he could be first round. So to me, he's kind of like top 50 right now. And it's a wait and see. But I really liked him coming out of Cal last year. And I was hopeful that he would get off

to this kind of start. And Carson Beck, like, what happens with this? Like, what, as the, give me the ceiling and give me the basement. I had to quit Carson Beck for a minute. Like cigarettes? Yeah, like cigarettes. I had to like put the box down and like, and come back later. Nicotine gum to get rid of them. Yes, like Nicorette, whatever it was.

So I just, it was frustrating to watch him at Georgia because it felt like every throw the weight of the world was on him. Right. And he was overthinking. And he was making his, even on the completions, making his receivers really work. And nothing felt. smooth. He didn't look relaxed and playing free and easy and all that, right? And then the season ends. And then it begs the question, right? And I have sources and I talk to him. It's like,

Georgia's got money. If Georgia really wants him back, and Gunner Stockton, their starter now, who's played really well, like he's not setting the world on fire with physical tools. But they were like, yeah, thanks for your service. Go ahead. You can transfer to Miami. They didn't put up a fight. And then it's like, all right, now he's got, he's buying Lamborghini. and then the Lamborghinis get stolen and he's dating a Cavender twin and then he's doing whatever he's doing to break and all the headlines, all the noise

after a frustrating year last year year is just like, of course you went down to Miami and of course you're doing all this social media like stop. So I quit him. I gave myself a few months off Beck but then like two weeks before the season starts I started getting reports that hey now this guy like he's at home

players love him. He's there early in the morning staying late. He's part of this grind. He's leading this grind, and he loves this system. He's decisive, getting the ball out. He's kind of leaned up a little bit. He's moving around better. And I'm like, yeah, we'll see.

And then that first game against Notre Dame, I was like everything they were saying is true. He looks like he loves the game again. He's playing light and free and easy. So I've been really encouraged because you've got to remember coming into last year, it was Beck as the number one prospect. I think when Thamble did that, that first one for game day, when he pulled all the scouts,

he had the most votes. He was a top 10 pick. And so the talent's there. And now we're starting to see him play at that kind of level again, which is fun to watch. It's almost like you just laid out a sports movie.

Right. Right. Like he just let everything go to his head and just lost his mind. It's like an 80s sports football movie where the guy has to like find himself. But he found himself in Miami, which is weird. Yeah, he just found himself in an alley one morning

and decided he's got to peel himself up and bring himself back and it's the comeback story. Inspirational music for him. Yeah. All right. Then do we need to talk about the Baylor QB or the Penn State QB or do you want to move to the NFL?

I like the Baylor quarterback. I think he's maybe like if he continues to play at this rate, it's awesome to see. The reason I love Sawyer Robertson so much is because I was at that Manning Passing Academy. I didn't know much about him. He's a transfer in. He's cousins with Jared.

Stidham. Like he's like he's got a cool backstory, baseball player, all that. And then he comes out and we've got sellers and Clubnick and Nussmeyer and all these great quarterbacks that are out and he's and they're doing okay

in these like drills. It's like Friday night lights, you know? It's like the purest thing left in football. There's no cameras. There's no television there. There's no sponsorship. It's just guys out throwing at night.

And, you know, a beautiful night in Tibado, Louisiana. And this Robertson kid who's 6'4, 225 comes out and he nails it's like this competition like all 12 throws or whatever it was and he just kind of walked back like nothing nothing to see here and i was like hmm i got to pop in this guy's tape and then he comes out and it's like 400 yards each game and he's keeping this baler team and that's not very good in tough games so i'm excited for him as is probably a backup quarterback and all that um but drew aller to me is the most a confounding prospect i get like the you know the national

list and blesto list all the scouts put together NFL teams uses it as a resource and talk to scouts everyone's got a first round grade on him it seems like like high grades he's big he's competitive i like it but he's strong he sees the field all those things but he's not mobile and he's slow with his feet he doesn't win big games and he's not accurate bill he like there's some kind of visualization thing with him got receivers running away from him he just doesn't trust his throws. And if you're not mobile and can't run around and you're not accurate, why are you a first round prospect?

Yeah. I think you watch the game on Saturday night and text me. And I want to get your opinion when you watch Dante Moore in his first level of competition and mind you, just nine starts going into Happy Valley Whiteout. But just watch him as a passer and then watch Drew Aller as a passer. And let me know what you think. Okay. So neck-up scale, Nussmeyer still winning.

Yep, he is. His tools aren't elite. Like, I see it. He doesn't have the great arm and it doesn't have great size and all that stuff. But neck-up, he's a winner. Who's the neck-up scale all-time winner? Is it Brady? And, well, I mean, we didn't know that coming out.

Oh, true. So it has to be college only. So if anyone you've ever evaluated, who wins the neck-up board? Andrew luck. Andrew luck. Yeah. Smart enough to retire. That was like he was neck up to the end.

Too smart. Why am I doing this? Too smart for the colds. I made enough money. I'm done. All right, NFL QBs. So Sal said something on the ringer gambling show on Wednesday that I really liked about these quarterbacks.

Sal's a trip, man. He's always on one. He's a trip. He had his cut the shit QBs where these QBs where you're just like, cut the shit. Are you good or not? Can you just tell us one way or the other? And Trevor Lawrence is obviously the number one of that. Of course.

A lot of drops for him this year, a lot of stuff that wasn't his fault. I still don't. I bet on them twice and probably going back for thirds this week. Inside the 10, I just, your guards up, you're waiting for something stupid to happen. Every once in a while, he'll just miss a guy completely. You're like, what just happened there? And then all of a sudden, he'll run like a gazelle. He'll nail somebody in stride.

Yeah. And it would be fine if it was year two, but it's not. So what is it, year four, year five now? It's year five. Yeah. I think it's year four or year five. I think it's year five. So where are we, Trevor Lawrence?

I don't know. Okay. I know he's not what we thought he was coming out, okay? So you've given up on that version. And when you go through different coordinators and obviously the Urban Meyer thing was a disaster. And so there was some recovery. and we saw some glimpsons and some flashes and you thought he's going to be okay with Doug Peterson

and then that this is year five by the way year five okay um and I like Liam Cohn like I think I think he's gonna get the most of them I think he's a I think at his best he's a good quarterback who you can't trust to be consistent enough and they're going to have to be great around them even though usually that guy's like the game manager he's just going to make some mistakes

and miss some throws that you wouldn't expect and he's going to create some plays and do some things. But I can't envision. Here's what I try to do sometimes with these guys. Envision a world with the quarterbacks that are in that league where they go head to head and it's some kind of shootout and the game's on the line in the fourth quarter where he out duels Mahomes, Josh Allen,

or Jalen Hertz even, if they can get that off. And Justin Herber, Joe Burrow, he's healthy. Like, I just don't envision that world. So maybe he gets him to a 9-10 win season playing really well if he goes on a run. But like now we're in the playoffs. And I'm looking at a matchup between him and Burrow or him,

him and him in Mahomes, him and even Herbert who doesn't win the playoffs yet. So, like, I don't know. It's just, it's hard to imagine he's ever going to take that next step. Well, it seemed like he was in a good spot with Brian Thomas.

And then they get Hunter. You're like, well, like, out of the weapons, Thomas has been a mess this season. I don't know what's going on that, dude. Yeah, he's, believe me, I've done a lot of research on it because he's on all of my fantasy teams, basically. And it's one of those things where the Jaguar fans are mad. It's a whole thing.

And then Hunter, who they thought was going to be, you know, early 90s Dion, it just has not been the case early. And that might have been too ambitious to begin with. But they give up a lot. Like, Mason Graham's doing really well for the people around. right really well yeah they traded out of that and now they get two first next year yes yes you could have you could have just stayed at six and taken or set i think it was it was five but they were like tyler warren was on there who ends up falling all the way to 14 right mason graham was the easy pick

they're two good tackles like uh membo who i think is the jet's been outstanding yeah thanks i think has been good with the saints like there was a lot of good shit going on and they trade everything to move up for hunter who doesn't seem like he has he yet so anyway, but it might have, that might have been Lawrence's chance to have the right supporting cast. I'm not sure he has it. Yeah. That would be the only defense I could think of for him. Yeah. It's just like there's too, there's too many excuses I feel like we've made. I'm right. I'm right on the ledge and I just keep, I keep on to walk it back, but I don't know that I'm going to get to a point where I don't want to just jump off

the Lawrence ledge. No excuses for me. I'm out. I've been out for, I've been out since last season. How do we explain C.J. Strout? I'm shocked by that. I mean, the offensive line is probably how we explain it. It's a dumpster fire. It's a top four worst offensive line in either conference. It's horrible. So it's hard.

When you have a quarterback who lives in the pocket and needs not a lot of time, but needs enough time, it's frustrating to watch because we all saw the ability. It didn't take some like super scout to figure out how talented he was. But it's hard to watch because you know it's there. and and I really like Ryan DeMiko Ryans and I really like that organization I think but like they can't get the offense and they in the off season

they just shipped off that offensive line like not good enough let's start over like if you're in the O line room like basically get out of here and so but now it's like not any better you know and so that I have to believe that that's leading to a lot of the problems I know he misses Tank Dell a lot you go back I did some I don't have the research

in front of me. But if you go back, like, whether it was Jackson Smith and Jigba, who had, like, equal or better production than the star first round wide receivers, Alave and, Garrett, whether it was, who was it? Oh, was it in Booth, Mecca and Buka? It might have been who is just as productive or more productive than Marvin Harrison, Jr. Like, he's a, he's a slot receiver guy. And so I think missing that kind of like type of guy at the slot hurts him a little bit.

But I really do think it's the offensive line is at the crux of this. We don't need to talk about Kyla Murray as a cut the shit guy because he's playing after we do this. But I gave up on him two years ago. On the flip side of a non-cut the shit guy, Herbert, who I've been probably

more dubious of them because it always bothered me that the nerds were always so excited about him and always like basically rating him by his potential instead of the results, which I've talked about a million times. I think he's been incredible this year. Does he seem any different to you or is the situation different? Where is he right now in your eyes? He seems different. Okay. That's how I feel as well. And if I go back to that draft, was that the borough, Tua. It was Tua. Yeah, It was Herber versus Tua. And for me, it was Jordan Love. I remember fighting with Kuiper.

I'm like, Herber's the most talented. I'll give you that. But I also sat in a meeting at Oregon with Christobal there. And it was like the protection they had for him. I think it was me and McDonough. And I've got to remember. It was either me, McDonough and Spielman, Chris Spielman,

or might have been Levy and Greasy. I can't remember. But we sat in this meeting and all of a sudden, like Justin Herbert's a star and they're undefeated, I think, at that time. And we're there to like, it's a showcase game. And we're the number two crew. And there was a big SEC game that Herbie and Fowler had. And so we get this game and Oregon's kind of rolling.

And he comes in and like he kind of lets the offensive linemen talk for him. He sits in the back of the room. Yeah. And I've been doing that for like eight, nine years at that point. And like the quarterback comes in. And he goes, you know, and you get to know him. And it always concerned me because it was kind of like so much talent. And then you blame Christobal and like they were run first.

And then he gets to the NFL and it's like, I just don't know if he's got that like, you know, that like what like Brady's an all time prick. So is Peyton Manning. So like all these guys. Like you hear some of the real stories behind the scenes. It's not about the commercials and the front. Yeah. Like they're like, they're brutal to be around.

And I didn't, I just wondered if Herbert would ever be like that. And now I'm starting to see a little bit of prick in him. And it's good. And I think Harbaugh's empowered him. And I think Harbaugh, it's not necessarily the mechanics, the footwork, the scheme. For him, it's, it's the way he, like the confidence that you can't help but have when you walk out of a room. And Harbaugh is crazy.

Like I have so many stories. But like, but when you're in that foxhole with him, you'll go. to war. And so I think it's like if they, he infected Herbert in a good way with some of that. In a good way. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. I'm seeing a different guy and the way he's carrying himself on, off the field, all of it. So I'm hopeful hopeful for him, but I still like Jordan Love a little bit more coming out. We'll see how that all plays out. Yeah. So, but now who would you rather have Herbert or Jordan Love? Ooh. Early this season, Herbert. And it takes a lot for me to say that. Up coming into this season, I was like, it took a few years. And I'm not, I'm not fighting with Kuiper anymore,

but I wanted to jump into the screen and be like, hey, Mel, what's up now? You know? Well, you had the neck upscale. I remember it was my podcast that Trent Delfare came on like 15 years ago and told the Mark Sanchez story. I forget what draft were all the QBs in that draft. And he was like, if you were going somewhere and you had your car keys on you and somebody he was going to drive, you toss him to Sanchez. And that was his way of saying like, that was Stafford's year. Was it Stafford's year?

Yes. Yeah. So he made the case like Sanchez is a car keys guy. And I was always like, that's like a different scale I think the car keys. So you're saying Herbert was low in the car keys. Yeah. In Oregon, you wouldn't have been like, you know, here the car keys, but he was sitting in the third row of like the

Lincoln Navigator, you know? He was going to sit back there but super talented. you know always yeah i i got to say i bet against them in week one and week three and um he just was just breaking hearts if you had the other side uh but it got to the point especially in the denver game where i started to feel like he was going to come back and make make plays that play he made Denver was killing him that whole game i mean i think they had 29 pressures yeah they were all over him that last touchdown he had was just an amazing play i thought that was probably the best

play of this season. And I never question his toughness. Like he'll take hits and keeps coming back. You know, the other one we should talk about, who I guess

isn't going to cut the shit guy anymore because he's had real playoff success. But I, you know, I thought golf was so good on Monday night. I don't know how bad Baltimore's defense is.

But even that like, that backbreaker throw he had to St. Brown on fourth and two, it was fucking perfect. And he just, he was playing with so much confidence.

I was really impressed. And I love seeing him do it without Ben Johnson because I think a lot of people and myself included question like how much is this is kind of manufactured. It fits perfectly. He's a play action guy. The run sets of all those things. And to see him doing it now and then they, you know, it was the first game, right? Where they came out and they struggled. They looked awful.

Yeah, it's Green Bay. Green Bay, yes. And then to see like, yeah, that was just a, that was a blip. Like we're back to what we are. Oh, yeah. I really liked him in that draft and I had him as the first quarterback but I always kind of thought

the ceiling was lower with him and to see where he is and then when a guy like McVe who I think we all have a ton of respect for kind of just discards him after having success and going to Super Bowl it's like something's up here you know and so to see him

make that move and to pick himself up and to have the success he's had I just pull for golf And I'm excited that he's doing what he's doing. But he is significantly better now than he was as a prospect coming out. And when he was in his early year or two. Yeah, it's funny. I felt prey to their offensive line isn't the same.

You can't lose coordinators like that. When I was thinking about them as a playoff team, how good are they going to be. Completely missed it. I'm usually good at this specific stupid thing. It's a very stupid. This is usually my domain. Yeah, it's my stupid niche.

But like, I totally miss the, them getting pissed off that everybody is like, yeah, with Ben Johnson, how your offense isn't going to be good anymore. I think that's like a real fuel for them. I think they really took it personally in the offseason. And Dan Campbell specifically, that should have been easy to guess.

But you could see it on Monday night with the way they played, how they finished the game, the stuff they said after. I just think they were like, fuck this. Like, it's, yeah, Ben Johnson was a good coordinator. but we're really good.

It wasn't about our offensive coordinator. Fuck off. Yeah. It's like a passion project for all of them. Yeah. For Campbell, like Campbell getting involved in it. Like,

it's pretty wild to see. Yeah, because they take after him and his mentality, as great as the play calls were. But like, some of those, the fourth and two is like not an easy call there at midfield with no, no,

50 left. You knew they were going to go for it. Yeah. But it wasn't like a no brainer. No, he's, he's wild. He's,

But, like, it works the vast majority of the time. And he trusts his group and his group trusts him. It's pretty cool to watch. Like, he's, I don't know how many other guys in the NFL you would, if you were to kind of draft head coaches. Yeah. And with an organization, like, he'd be on the very short list, I think, truly. He's, so I was ranked when I do my little player rankings.

I rank the coaches. And I downgraded them this year because they lost their, I had them above average, but not like top 10. Oh, I was worried. I was legitimately word. But I think he's, this is a big, no, no, no, no, I'm really good. And I know I'm getting old when, when Kelvin Shepard now, like, when I was, I was like, oh, he's a coordinator.

Like, he wasn't in my first two or three years of evaluating players. He was like, year seven or eight. I'm like, no, he's a quarter, he's been in the league. How many years coaching? Like, it's, yeah, it's wild to see, but it's pretty cool to see, too, a guy who you saw as like a 19, 20-year-old kid, you know, trying to make to the NFL and now where he is, like, it's just, it's wild. Yeah.

That is one of the stages of getting older because one of the first eye-opening things is when somebody's son is playing like in baseball and you're like, oh, my God, Fernando Tatis Jr. Right, right. But when it's a grandchild, that's when you're like, ah, just put me out, put me in a fucking home. Yeah, I know. I'm worried that that hasn't happened yet that I'm aware of. But I'm worried about that. What do you think about Jackson Dart?

I want to get your opinion. As you know, I eat up all the off-field, how the team feels like he leads in the locker room and him in the meetings and hard worker. He checks all those boxes, got the charisma. I thought they should have gone to him last week. I thought that was the perfect game. But I know Wilson had a big game against Dallas.

Of that, yeah. I get it, but he, but when Wilson sucked in the first part of that game, I just, like, they brought Darden and I was like, oh, I wonder if they'll just keep them out there. And it was like, they didn't have the balls to do it. This is the right time, though, because they have an easy game next week. So, Chargers will be hard. But I think you had to do it. We set the over under before the season started at week six.

So it went under. Interesting. I had a fascinating conversation. And one has nothing to do with the other here. I had zero to do with Jackson, Dark, Giants, Dayball, all that. But I'll never forget, I'm in Mobile, Alabama. It's the first day. Practice hasn't even started yet.

And Mention and I are doing some interviews before with some general managers. And Daibol comes in and grabs me and is like, hey, I'm just getting caught up on the quarterbacks. You know, the season just ended and coaches then get involved in the process. He's like, what do you talk me through? And this is like a three, four minute conversation. He's like, who do you like? I've never told this full story before. Oh, great.

Who do you like? What do you think? And I went there. I was like, you know, I don't know that Chador is the right fit for you. I, you know, Cam Ward's probably going to be the first quarterback taken. I said, if I'm being honest, the guy I want to see with you, and I want you to have a chance to develop is Jackson Dart. And this is Jackson Dart was kind of considered like a second rounder coming in that week of this senior bowl. I was like, I was like, you're picking at five.

I'm like, so, like, it's not going to be at five, but like, and I don't, maybe he's there in this early second. I was like, maybe you guys have to move up for him. It was like, just totally, just spitballing, right? And he hadn't got, he just came off the East West Shrine game and Shador was there, but Shador didn't play. And so he's like, all right, he's like, good to know. And he just walked away.

And then, like, we went through this whole process. And then it was like Jackson, yeah, they might like Jackson Dart a little. So it was cool to see that he thought the same thing of Dart. And I'll never forget watching Dart. It's a 161 clip reel where the PFF ultimate where you marry it to our game tape and you can break it up any throws from 10 to 20 yards

whatever you want. It's a versus pressure clip reel that I watch for all these top top quarterbacks. Every year I do it. And the 161 plays for him is when I fell in love. And listen, he does not have a big time arm. And I think that's the thing that was kind of lost and all.

Like he can't drive it down the field like Josh Allen, like Mahomes, like some of those guys. It's adequate, but he's got to be on time. But watching him in the pocket, as I'm watching Shador and Cam Ward, and they're bailing and drifting and, like, extending and kind of laxadais. And then I watched Dart every play is like urgency, climbing the pocket, sliding over, throwing down the field. And you know how like Josh Allen, when you watch him?

It's almost like the chaos calms him down. Yeah. That's how I felt. So I'm like, he's not as tall as Josh Allen. not as mobile. He certainly doesn't have the arm. And I'm hesitant to say it at the time, but I was like, screw it, you know? He reminds me so much of Josh Allen, not the physical traits, but the way he carries himself, the way he is with pressure around him. And so I'm excited. Like, I know that a team isn't very good. I know they're playing the charges week one and

maybe they can bounce back against the Saints with Dart and his second start. But I'm excited to see what happens here because I think this is a marriage that, like, is perfect for both of them. It's funny. The Giants might not be that bad because that Chiefs game, I was thinking, I wish I had talked about it more on Sunday that, that defensive touchdown that they should have had where the guy Mahomes stripped the guy back. But I do wonder what happens if that happened. If they get that play and they score combined with Wilson just, you know, completely shit in the bed. He was just awful. But they do have a pass rush.

They do have a pass rush. Neighbors is a problem. on. Yeah, and their receivers as a whole are not, like, they're, they're better than what we've seen. And Scataboo, you know, I don't know. I kind of like them. I wish the paths had taken up. He's a maniac, man. I like him, too. I don't know.

I can see in the Chargers 3 and O, smoke blown up, Herbert MVP, there's six, six and a half point favorites on the road. Everyone's going to have them in a tease. Like, to me, that's, it is an all-time stay away. I would not bet on either team in this game. And who knows with Dart? The crowd will be into it right away when it happens. All right, we got to do it.

Actually, one more thing, quick. I said before the year, I thought Alan was the best QB in the league and people got mad at me. Why are they mad at you? Because of the Mahomes. And I was like, I'm sorry. Alan is the best quarterback in the league right now.

Alan is the best quarterback in football. And he was last year. And I don't know why, just because Mahomes has the three titles. And he's still like, If I have a fourth quarter, he's still probably the guy if my life dependent, I would probably take. But Josh Allen week to week for a season right now, the player he is, I don't see how you could say he's not 1A and Lamar's 1B, but I would have him over Lamar. But do you agree with that, though?

I actually would, and I'd like to disagree with you, it would be more fun. I always try to, you know, kind of like before, I try to ask myself, who do you want to face the least? Like, who's the biggest problem? And it was Mahom for the longest time. And I'm on, like, he would be second on my list. But if you're asking, like, who's the guy that, like, creates the most problems for me? If I'm a defensive coordinator, if I'm an opposing team, it's Alan. It's the, it's the physicality.

It's the mobility. It's the driving the ball down the field, the amount of field you have to cover. And look at, like, we all talk about the chiefs and their lack of weapons and all that. But, like, are the bills that much better? I mean, Curtis Samuel was a healthy scratch last week, you know? Yeah. I don't know. I think James Cook is really good.

He's certainly better than anyone on the Chiefs, but from a receiver standpoint, receivers, I mean, yes. Yeah. And I just think he's the hardest one to play to back up your point. Like if it's third and five on the five-yard line, you just have to be like, he's probably going to do a QB draw and we probably can't stop it. We're going to have to keep more people in. And now he's got the sides open.

Yeah, but maybe he won't. Maybe he'll wait. Maybe he'll roll around. I just think he's hard to split. And then the other piece of that is, if you switched him with other people's situations, what would happen to that team? If you put him on Kansas City right now, I feel like he'd figure it out at least as good as Mahomes has tried to figure it out

these last years. But I don't think, to me, Mahomes could absolutely take it back. Worthy's coming back this week. Rice comes back, I think, week seven. And there's a world where all of a sudden the cheeps are fun and explosive. But the reality is they haven't been fun and explosive in two years. Yeah, more than two years now. Two plus years.

Like that, I don't know. Okay, let's talk Drake, May. Let's go. We'll end with the Pats. We'll end with our guy, Drake. I thought the Pats played really well last week, except for the five turnovers. Right. 26 first downs.

They were in all the right spots. They dominated the game. I think they had a, like, it was like 349 to 101 yards the last three quarters. I have no idea how they lost the game. It was one of the stupidest losses in recent Patriots history, but I, I just. Ball security, right? Yeah, Drake does one dumb play a half, right? He does.

And so, so like, you look at his passing efficiency. He's actually further along than I thought he would be as a passer. Yeah. Like, just I, I even remember going like that. game live last year. I'm watching before you got the head injury. And it's like, man, the way he's carrying himself and the mobility aspect. Like, he's going to be just fine.

I really like this is better than I thought in his rookie year. And then he has made a jump. And they don't have great supporting cast around him. But it's good enough. And you're seeing that, like, he's going to keep getting. I think they're going to wind up being the most improved team in the National Football League. from what we saw week one against the Raiders to what we see in like weeks 10 through 17.

I really do. So I agree with you and I don't know if I'm up being a homer but I like genuinely believe this team has the pieces to be a good team as the year goes long. Yeah, a good team. Like good team. Like in the hunt.

Yeah. Yeah, in the hunt at the end, but maybe they don't make it. Maybe they make it and they get knocked out. But I think this year's critical for May to continue. kind of on this trajectory and start cutting out the maybe five, six plays a game that he'd like to have back. Maybe cut that down to one or two.

Yeah. And like you said one turnover. But like start chipping away at that a little bit because the good is really good. And their defense is, is significantly better than a year ago. And like I just, I like this team, but I know what it is. But it's huge. This first year with Vrable is huge that they, that they, that they, they progress.

And then next year, I think they become, with another offseason and with the draft and with a couple moves and free, like, I think they could then be, be serious in someone you have to deal with. Yeah, the being one and two after three is tough because I don't think the Raiders are very good, but the Pats just gave up a bunch of big plays. Gonzalez comes back this week, which I think people have underrated how important he is. What did I read? I didn't actually, like, Breers, Albert Breers said something like,

there wasn't a hamstring or what's the what's the oh really yeah there was something look that up there was something about where he was beyond the hamstring or insinuating something i don't know i thought yeah so just find that we'll have to both find that out after that that albert brier always start in trouble jesus but he's good man uh the uh i think i could see so we're aligned i could see like around week 10 week 11 i also think this team is going to have upset over somebody at some point over the next four or five weeks. Because I do think they can rush a passer, they can move the ball. Some of the offensive stats are pretty good, like some of the advanced stats, you know,

that don't really count the multiple turnovers per game. Well, that's the thing. Like when you take away those, those, that handful of plays every game, he's actually been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the National Football League this year, which is wild. I just think once a game, he's going to have a play where he's understores. and he tries to be a hero and something dumb happens. Josh Allen did won a lot of games doing that forever.

Forever until last year. Yeah. Truly until last year. Last year was the first year where he actually was like, oh, he's protecting the football. He's not making those mistakes. So it might be three, four years down the road before he completely like turns the corner on that.

The more frustrating one was having booty in the corner and just not doing the little al-upe lob pass to him and it's an easy touchdown. Instead, he's trying to fire it through somebody and he gets tipped. That's like three years from now. He's laughing that over. It's a touchdown. I think, I hope people understand he is a pup.

Like, he has not played a ton of ball. You compare his starts come out of North Carolina and that system he was in to like what Jaden Daniels had and what some of these other guys have had, Bo Nicks, certainly. He's learning on the job, which considering the results pretty good, you know? Well, tell the freaking Boston media that. I mean, I don't think Reprehensible. I was there last week.

I mean, that it's like, everyone just got so spoiled. Yes. And it's, it's always been. And if it wasn't the Patriots,

it was the Red Sox during our childhood. I mean, they just, they'll run people out of town if they're not careful. That's the problem with people around here. Isn't he like Roman Anthony right away? Roman Anthony was immediately the best part of the Red Sox.

Why is that Drake Bang? Everyone should be. Jake May, everyone, excuses for them. They'll probably play this on one of the shows. Listen to these two shitheads making excuses for Drake Mae. It's like a whole segment

on it. Yeah. Yeah. Drake May is good. Anyway, all right, McShay, so every Saturday, you do a live YouTube show with Munch for your podcast. Outside of doing the draft nationally, like at the site, like it might be my, like the

most fun, my favorite project I've ever done is the Saturday night show. And it kind of, we just kind of stumbled upon So you're coming on We break into the late in the games Like the Georgia game is going to be the one And Penn State Oregon. So we'll break in with like five

Seven minutes left and we'll just react I'm looking at the big screen over here And it's just a mess And then we'll reset and we'll do a recap of the whole day And this week we've got like nine, ten games We've got to recap But we'll probably be on two in the morning this week So it'll be fun Eastern time

We love Avenue. It's great to see you It's been great man I love it here and I'm excited about what we're doing. All right. Thanks, man. This episode is brought to by Tron Aries. For the first time, the captivating world of Tron breaks out of the grid. Aries, a highly advanced program, journeys into our world on a dangerous mission, marking humankind's first encounter with AI beings. Featuring an electrifying original soundtrack by 9-inch nails. Tron Aries is a must-see movie event,

filmed for IMAX and made for the big screen. Experience it only in theaters, October 10, tickets now. All right, we're going to talk NFL and Ryder Cup with our guy Joe House. Ringer 107, we're 5 and 10 through three weeks. It's a bad start. I'm not scared. I'm not rattled. This is the first week I've

actually liked this week for. Listen, it lit a fire under me. I got to be honest. I feel a little like the Atlanta Falcons after that Panthers 30 nothing shut out. We've had bad luck. Our worst pick, actually, ironically, was the Falcons, which we had in a parlay, and they lost

30 to nothing to the worst team in the league, Carolina we're about to talk about. But House, am I right to say week four looks delightful, looks enticing? It's the first time I feel like, oh, okay, I feel like I have a handle. I like some of the matchups. Let's go. Yeah, it does set up with some semblance of normalcy, I guess I'll say, because I think we've gotten the overreaction out of our system now. And the underreactions.

But you're both of those, the overs and the unders. I mean, the Falcons fired their wide receiver coach and they're working on better communication with Michael Panix. What are you and I going to do? Don't fire me. Who can we fire? They also move their OC from the booth down to the field, which is another one.

Sometimes it's a moving the deck chairs in the Titanic situation, but even if you look at the stats from that game, it's kind of hard that did not seem like a 30 to nothing game if you just examine all of what happened and i and carolina is going to come up later because i still think they stink and i'm willing to make our money back here are the stayaways for this week i want to zoom through this a little bit because we got a lot of rider cup to talk to rider cup on the east coast great i have a lot of thoughts stayaways rams colts um i'm staying away unless you like it i don't know what to make of this colts team they feel like the rabbit team this year

it's Rams three and a half at home. I don't like the line. If it was Rams 2.5, I'd be intrigued, three and a half a minute. It's a fair number. We are going to, I think, transact on another team involved in next week's Thursday night game, which is, to me, the most compelling reason to stay away from this Rams Colts game. The Rams go from this game to Thursday night hosting the San Francisco 49ers.

short work week for both the Rams and the 49ers, and that's a crucial matchup for those teams. So I like the idea of staying away. I think it's a fair number. Three and a half seems fine with me. Good, good test for the Colts. This is a good referendum on who these Colts are. House, remember when we took the Niners and Ringer 107, minus two and a half? And then Mac Jones, they were driving and it seemed like we had it. It was minus one and a half. It was minus one and a half. And then Mac Jones threw a terrible pick and then they scored and then he took a safety in the end

zone and they were down too and then Mac Jones then drove them down so they could win by one and we didn't win. We'll have a chance to talk about the Niners in context but they have still abominable special teams. That safety by Mac Jones was a special teams

safety because the dumb ass punt return guy field of the punt at the goddamn two yard line. It was like a 65-yard pun is like let me let me get field position right here all right get just get out of the way just let the ball bounce in the end zone dopey next day away is bill's saints which is uh it's over two touchdowns so it'll probably land who knows somewhere in the 16 to 17 range um the saints offense is just decent enough that uh there's back door stuff like you look at the advanced

stats like they're not reprehensible they can move the ball if it's like 31 to 10 they can get one late. If you had come in on fire for the Saints, I would have gone along with it. I don't, I don't hate this spot for them. I'm not going to bet on them, but I don't hate the spot. Dolphins Jets, a complete stay away. There's a mild case for the Jets just because they really could be two and one. But there's also a mild case for the dolphins because they're 0 and 3 and if they're ever going to win a game, this would be it.

And they showed some fight and they're on 10 days' rest. I don't want to find out. Justin Fields for Stua. it's a no thanks across the board. That's fine. That's a fine Monday night game. Just sit back and enjoy. Don't have anything on it. And then last but not at least,

the Broncos laying seven and a half to Cincinnati. Yeah. And Bo Nix has just been awful. He's cost us money. He's made me scared for my futures. PFF ranked him. I think the 35th out of 36 quarterbacks who have played football this year. not good

I really want to put them in a parlay or talk you into some sort of tease on Sunday and I'm just I can't until we see Bo Nix have three hours that look half decent so we're going to stay away from that I have put the Broncos in a tease but no way I'm laying seven and a half

that's a preposterous number even though the Bengals really bangled the hell out of that Vikings game I mean they just bangled that game a guy in the Vikings scored two touchdowns who wasn't on offense true story He did that.

A defensive guy. He had two touchdowns. If you had him in fantasy, it would have been like a huge day. All right, two games that I think are stayaways. But I'll let you, if you got super excited about it, I'm willing to have the combo. Eagles minus three and a half over the bucks. It's in Tampa.

No Mike Evans for Tampa. It's time for his annual hamstring injury. Yeah. It's like we have Halloween on October 31st. We have Thanksgiving. We have Mike Evans with a hamstring. No Godwin probably. Worf's might play.

I just want to stay away unless there's something you like here. No, if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had better health in any of those areas, I mean, Baker continues to be banged up. And, you know, always halfway through each game, we see him with a limp. If they had just a tiny bit better health luck, I would be all over the bucks. They have been tremendous in this spot against the Eagles year over year. Ask any Eagles fan. Tampa plays them super tough.

They always, for whatever reason, because of the way the schedules turn out in the way that Tampa and the Eagles have fared well in their divisions. It feels like they play a lot. It's almost like they're, yeah. That's right. It's a stay away. I agree with you. You know, I was doing a bunch of homework trying to get our mojo back this week.

And I was giving, I was assigning teams records, not when lost records, but actual win. actual loss, and then just the number next to it, which meant it's an either-or game. Sure. Tampa's actual record is zero, zero, and three. Sure. They have a convincing win yet. There is some stat out there,

like the first team in modern history to win, you know, on the last drive or second to last drive, some crazy number like that. And Philly is two on one. All right, we're staying away from that. And I don't want to stay away from Chiefs, I don't want to bet on it. But I also don't want to bet on it.

Chiefs plus two and a half at home against the Ravens. What's your lien on that? I'm interested in your Ravens. My lean is the Chiefs. They're begging you to take the Chiefs. I think that Ravens run defense, it's just going to be bad for the whole year. So you're right, but who the hell runs the football for the Kansas City Chiefs, right?

And then from an explosive play standpoint, it just feels like Baltimore can at least put up points against anybody and they're going to be in the 25 to 30 range just because that seems to be what they do and then can the chiefs get there and it just Casey is just mediocre in every single

offensive category like give me anything give me yards per play but what's weird is I think they still have the eighth ranked offense by EPA and then every other stat is in the middle Baltimore's defense 30th rush 31st pass 25 yards per pass 30th

first down they're both one and two obviously one of these teams are going to be one and three my lean is the chiefs and i feel like on sunday i'm going to talk myself into a tease with them getting eight and a half is where this is going to land i actually kind of like that that's not i mean let's compare notes on sunday um the thing with the raven's defense is they cannot put pressure on anybody because the injuries to van noi and matabouquet up the middle um and we saw that we saw Jared Goff just enjoying the comfort and peace of a quiet pocket and he absolutely picked

that Ravens defense apart. I think ultimately that Ravens defense will be fine and we kind of went through a version of this last year if they can get the restored health. But I think at this stage of the season it makes sense to stay away. Let's just enjoy the game. One

thing I was thinking with that so the Ravens defense died in that Bill's game in the second half, right? And it died in the second half of that Lions game. And I was wondering if there was a Cousin South special, maybe looming. Well, the problem is the Lions won the first half and one was it tied or did they were up at the half? No, I'm saying for this week. Oh, okay. Like the Ravens take a lead and then the Chiefs come back. So Ravens would first have Chiefs second half and

it fits every sort of character of these two teams. The idea of these two teams, over the years. Like, the Ravens are historically great in the first half of games. And the Chiefs have been a second half Dynamo, just like, you know, that's the Patrick Mahomes story. So if you want to do that, I'm not against it. What angle I like about this house, if you're going to take

the Chiefs is the Ravens could go one and three and then immediately Texans home, Rams home, biweek, Bears home at Dolphins, at Vikings, at Browns, home Jets, home Bengals, home Steelers, at Bengals, Pat's at Green Bay, Week 17. Like, they might, this might be the last

in they lose for three months. And we've seen them do this. We've seen them do this. Eight and five last year. And then they didn't lose any more games. Just finished out the season with a nice run. Slightly in chiefs. I also wonder the Giants might be a little better than maybe we think.

And maybe that's why the chiefs, even though it was a little ugly last year, they still did win 22 tonight. But I just feel like after this game, we're going to be like, oh, okay. And we'll know a little more. I'm leaning cheats. You know that Baltimore to win the first half, Kansas City to win the game? What is it? Plus 8.50.

Oh. It would be worth a couple, couple, couple dollars. It might do a sprinkling. Okay. The Possible. Packers at Dallas, minus six and a half, the money line could go in any part of that we want to do. Green Bay is a little banged up.

Detroit's defense might be the worst defense in the league. I'm sorry, Dallas's defense. It's in the running for worst defense. And then Green Bay's offensive stats, even after that weird Browns game, when they went against that juggernaut, there's still

seventh past, third runs, second yards per play. And it just feels like they're going to light them up, the Parsons thing. And yet something scares me about the straight up. So we'll have to talk parlay in it. No CD Lamb. Dallas looked dead after CD Lamb. It just seemed like they had no chance whatsoever. There's no case for Dallas in my opinion,

but I didn't like how the Packers looked last week either. That's the only thing that is worrisome is that there's no case for Dallas. And I can't imagine anybody out there betting on Dallas. No case. When we sit down and wake up, I mean, when we wake up Sunday morning, the splits are going to be like 85% of the tickets on the Packers. And this number has just held tight at six and a half. Like no movement at all at six and a half. I mean, everyone got excited about Caleb last week,

and rightfully so, he made some good throws. But then if you watch the highlights, these guys are wide open. They're open by like five, six, seven yards every pass. He had hours to throw.

And he had hours to throw. That is by far the most comfortable he's been as a professional in terms of dropping back. Okay. starting to get a little more serious here. Texans Titans. Texans minus seven and a half.

Only as a parlay here. Yeah. It's a kitchen sink game for them. They're 0 and 3. Season might be over anyway, but in the AFC South, who knows? And they're playing this Tennessee team. Pick a stat on offense.

They're 32nd. Just name a stat. I'll be like, oh, no, actually they're only 30th in that one. They stink. And the Callahan tire fires, you nicknamed the Dumbo two weeks ago. It could be the last one for him. Houston's defense is probably at least the top 10 defense.

Gave up 14 to the Rams, 20 to the bucks, 19 to the Jax. They're good. It's a good defense. There's nothing wrong with the Houston defense. This is how many points are they going to score a game for Tennessee. Yeah. So I don't want to mess with the number. Let's just take the Texans on the money line and put them in a parlay.

They're one leg. I like that leg quite a bit. Browns, Lions, Brown's getting nine and a half. And I would be all over this, except their left tackle, DeWan Jones is out and their right tackle, Conklin is questionable and they can't really score to begin with. But man, the defensive stats for them, what they did to Green Bay last week and just what they've been doing in general,

their first in rush, fourth and pass, first in yards per play, third in sacks, first and first down. Baltimore ended up with 41 on them, but that was a weird game. It wasn't a 41 point offensive game. And then Detroit has a really good offense, too. But Detroit coming off Monday night, just everybody blowing smoke and Dan Campbell proving that it wasn't all about Ben Johnson. They just have this awesome win.

And it just, it has all the makings of a stay away. And that's what I think we should do. Yeah, I don't disagree. I think that the number is crazy. Nine and a half is an insane number. It's too high. It's way too high. Yes, exactly.

Three points, three full points too high. You cannot say enough about this Cleveland Browns defense. You've got to give it up to Jim Schwartz. They had the purse. They figured out what they did wrong last year. And the pass rush is back. And it's ferocious. They have played Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love,

and they get pressure on all those dudes. The only reason why we're not going to fire on this is because we can't bet on Joe Flacko on the road. I don't think to get any points whatsoever. I like Judkins, too. Me too. And they established the run pretty effectively, but that's the injury to the offensive lineman is a bummer in that respect. They made a great trade.

The Travis Hunter trade was awesome. And they ended up with Graham, who, I don't know, their front four is just really good. I was really, really impressed by them in that Green Bay game because we had, I can't remember how I bet Green Bay. but I was nervous in the second quarter because it was clear their defense was disrupting everything Green Bay wanted to do.

Giants Chargers is another one that looks like a let's be careful out there. Giants six and a half point underdogs at home. Jackson Darts starting, Andrew Thomas back in at left tackle. And that Chargers O-line, no Slater who's out all year. But then Bechtin looks like he's out.

Their center, Bozeman might be out. Right. They're riding high off these three wins. and a lot of Herbert love, but I thought they had a ton of trouble protecting Herbert last week. And this Giants defense, if the crowd's fired up about Dart,

this feels upset-ish to me. The Giants defense is 28th past 31st rush, and the chargers are second and pass, but yet their offensive line worries me. It feels like a stayway, but I do like the Giants. I don't want to bet on a rookie quarterback in his first start against...

And that's why we're not doing it. Because we're 5 and 10. We can't do a rookie QB. I mean, Harbaal's 4 and O against the spread against rookie quarterbacks. Ooh. Just throw a stat of me? Yeah, well, if I was...

Because I was considering, you know, do we do something with the Chargers? I did the teaser that America should not do, which is the Chargers down to one and a half and the Green Bay Packers down to one and a half. I did it. Oh, Jesus. Or a half, whatever it is.

I did that. I did that. I told America not to do it. do that on Wednesday's show, just because I did it. That was my public service announcement to everybody. Do not tease the chargers and the Green Bay Packers together. Don't do it. That was like the bad idea jeans commercial.

That tease. I agree. So she asked me, have non-protected sex that I said, when's the next time if I'm going to be in Haiti? Remember that commercial with her own? I remember. It was one of the classics. Bad idea, jeans.

I think that tease is a bad idea. Okay, the likelihoods. I have five. Tell me, I'll just, I'll say what they are, and then we can go to them. Raiders, bears, Jags, Niners, Falcons, Washington, Viking Steelers, Pat's Panthers. Is there anything we don't have out of those five that you liked? No, no, those, so when you sent me the notes, some people, some people accuse us of being, you know, I'm too agreeable. But, like, the whole point of this is us collaborating and trying to find games that work.

We're talking about beforehand. We're trying. You're too agreeable. The fuck. I mean, like, we argue all the time. I did talk you out of week one, the Seattle Seahawks, you know, against the 49ers. You had that on the list. The problem is we've been agreeing on bad picks.

We're five and ten. Bad picks. We're bad at this. I almost want to guarantee a four and one this week, but I'm not going to put that. Don't you. Don't do that. I just want to say. I have hit my same game parley

each of the first three weeks on the Sunday pregame show and I am two and one on the Sunday pregame show with my best bet so good we'll bring some of that magic here I'm trying I'm trying let's see here I am Raiders Bears Raiders by one and a half

Bears coming off we looked way too good last week game Raiders coming off we didn't look good at all game so there's a double zag that I like it's a loser leaves town match I think if either of these teams lose I find it hard to believe they're going to make the playoffs. The Raiders going one and three.

They're going to go eight and five down the stretch. They're just going to be two up and down. They're pretty healthy, though. And apparently Bowers is fine. I didn't love the way he looked. He didn't look good against Washington. The Bears had this miracle game where they play this really limited Dallas team

and Lamb gets hurt in the first quarter. So it's not like, I think that could have been a shootout and it just that got taken off the table. They have a bunch of secondary injuries and all the defensive stats for them are really bad, including they are last in the league in yards per play allowed.

And Vegas's offense, I don't know. So put a pin in this one because I'm not all the way there yet and the reason I'm not all the way there yet is because we had two consecutive crappy Gino games. Now, we anticipated that they were going to have, I did at least. I said on this show and other shows that

I thought that it was a bad spot for the Raiders coming off of that Monday night football game against the Chargers in the previous week. Just a tough spot for them coming east out here for a one o'clock game. The compelling reason to invest in the Raiders here is because he's back home in that dome. His splits in a dome are so much better. And, you know, they are showing something in terms of offensive potency. that guy Tucker was unstoppable. He had two giant

place. Yeah. Listen, this is pro sports. You have a shitty week. You recommit during the week in practice. We got to get it. And this is why we do this with the season. We go down, we go up. This feels like a bears come back down,

Raiders go back up. I like the price. I think this line should be two and a half. Okay. I don't know what, How do the bears only, how is this in the tix-tack zone? The bears fucking suck on defense. And they're on the road.

Why do we think they're... So anyway, I feel like we're getting a free point. And if the Raiders lose this game, their season's over. Next one, feel more strongly about this one. Jags plus three and a half against San Francisco. No Bosa. No Kittle. Pierceall and Jennings questionable.

The Niners have had just a slew of injuries already. We're going to have a... Mac Jones with a sprained. PCL or a slightly injured Brock Purdy at starting QB. Scary special teams, as always, for San Francisco. And this is,

the cousin I talked about this on Sunday, I like how Jacksonville looks. I think they're defense. I think they have a pass rush. I think they're causing turnovers. Like, they're doing shit. You are correct. And offensively,

plays are there. Guys are open. Like, they're just not stupid shit's happening with them, but they remind me a little of the paths where, like, you can see the potential of what's there. I just think they're, I kind of like the Jags. I got to be honest.

I mean, just in general, not even this game. I just kind of like them. Yeah, I agree with you. I like the spot and I like the number and I like the Jags to win this game outright. Because I think the Niners, this is the angle that I'm particularly invested in, is them looking at their division game on Thursday against the Rams and saying, look ahead. We have to come into that Thursday night game as healthy as possible. And so if Purdy, in any way, shape, or form shows, you know, distress or, you know, he's not moving well, get him out. It just doesn't make any sense to, you know, rush him in and push this one all the way through.

And you hit on the key, I think on both sides of the ball, Jacksonville has, like, has a spine. They have an identity. the thing that they keep doing is self-sabotaging. They need their goddamn receivers to catch the goddamn balls when Trevor Lawrence hits them in the hands and Trevor Lawrence needs to do better at hitting them in the hands. His accuracy is still in the bottom third of the league, but they lead the league in terms of drops,

drop percentage and so forth. So, yeah, I'm... How about this? They should be 3-0. They beat the Panthers. They completely gave away that Bengals game that they should have won, and I don't know how they didn't win,

and then they beat the Texans last week. But I really like that one. I think the line's too high, too. I think it should be one and a half or two and a half. Yeah, we're in agreement. The only thing you would say we worry about is are Jacksonville's defense numbers somewhat illusory because they've played offenses

that are, you know, not top notch. Joe Burrow getting hurt. Right. C.J. Stroud and whatever is in a team of the terrible offensive line. But, all right, next one. Falcons, Washington, Falcons plus one and a half. Atlanta coming off a horrible loss and Washington coming off in the easy win.

The big thing here is your team is just banged up. Yeah. No McLaurin, it looks like you have a bunch of defensive injuries. Daniels might play, might not play. Equer's already gone. You have a bunch of just no-name receivers. I mean, running backs. And, you know, the Atlanta, the stats are pretty,

with three games is like enough of a sample size. The stats are pretty good with them. They're first against the pass, fourth yards per play, second, first down is allowed. I think there's something there with them. The question for me is, why did it look like you guys had never had a practice on offense last week, and did you fix that? I'm going to bet on the talent. I think they can win the game out right.

Well, the difference is Pennix on the road versus Pennix at home and all the communications issues, all of the things that we cited at the top of the show about things that Atlanta did to figure out how to, how. to make the communication work better, bringing the coach down, the offensive coordinator down to the field, fire the wide receivers coach, you know,

we got to get the plays in quicker. We have to have Pennix. All of that should work better at home. And they have shown us a kind of class. What they did going into Minnesota and being able to establish the run and they just ran the ball with the two-headed monster of Alger and Bejan Robinson.

And, you know, they got to get Pennix throwing the ball to those receipts. in the end zone, I think they're committed to it. This is the game in which they're going to possibly have some success. It hurts my feelings to go against Washington. But, man, that secondary is so depleted across the board. So the spot is correct for Atlanta.

And that's counting Latimore, who's still playing. Oh, my God. Fake thugs. Fake thug. Falcons have the Bucs beat. This is one of our ringer 107 losses. and they fucking blow it down the stretch. That was week one.

Multiple ways. They blew it multiple ways. Week two, they spanked the Vikings. Spanked them. Week three, really stupid Panthers game. They fall behind 7-0. They just stopped running the ball. I don't know what they were doing.

And I think they bounced back. I really like the Falcons plus one and a half. Let's go to Ireland. There's a nice angle there also for teams that get blown out by 30 or more. Oh, yeah, I saw that. They cover like nearly 70% of the time the next

game. How about this angle? Conspiracy Bill. Looking at week six, Bill's Monday night football. So Atlanta plays the commanders and then there's a week five by and then the bills.

I think the league wants the Falcons to be two and two heading in that Bill's game. It's a little more fun. Coming off a win. Okay. Maybe get some calls. That's fine.

Viking. Steelers in Ireland, it kind of frightens me how much I like the Vikings in this game because their quarterback's going to be Carson Wentz. But I love the Vikings. And I think part of it is because I watched that entire Steelers, Pat's game, every play. And I just do not think the Steelers are good. And I can't believe the Pat's lost that game. I cannot get over it. I started preparing myself after I listened to you and Cousin Sal on Sunday night. For this pick. That you were, yes, like it violates all your rules. It's a Sunday morning game.

It's the first game in Europe. No. One of my first rules is don't bet on this game. Don't bet on the game when you wake up and an hour is already gone by and you're down to nothing. And then there's a Carson Wentz rule. I mean, there's some amazing rules that we are going to violate because I think that the template that they showed us last week against the Bengals is eminently reprimanded. repeatable against Pittsburgh.

Super repeatable template. That defense blitzing Aaron Rogers into oblivion. He is the worst quarterback in the NFL under pressure. His completion rate, his accuracy, everything goes down. He is immobile, and they do not have any safety valves on that offense to let him get the ball out and protect him. They're cooked. I like the Vikings. I said to Sal last week

I really only feel like Rogers can do two things anymore like the gets the snap quick throw like bubble screen or right over the and he has that and he has that three steps back quick throw back shoulder play and nothing else I just didn't see one other thing that he could do here's the other thing Minnesota's run defense isn't good which might be a problem certain weeks right

it was a problem against Atlanta. It's not going to be a problem against Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh's running game is bad. Bad. Rogers bad against pressure. Minnesota loves pressure. Pittsburgh should be 0 and 3. They should have lost the Jets game

and they should have lost the Patriots game. And I just don't think they're good. Here's another thing. Jordan Addison back from Minnesota. Yeah, I love that. This happens right around week three, week four, week five guys pop back in and you kind of forget.

It's like, oh, your left tackle who is suspended for steroids. Now he's back. I forgot. Addison being back for them is a big deal because now you can actually throw the ball in Pittsburgh, which the Pats did. Pat's had 26 first downs in that game.

Let me just say this out loud so that we're acknowledging it. It's Carson Wins as the quarterback of the Vikings. We wake up Sunday morning. And he's playing at 6.30 in the morning Pacific time. We wake up the morning and we turn the game on and Pittsburgh is up 17 to 3 and you're like, what the fuck is going on here? Listen, it's why I'm going to wake up at 6 in the morning,

so I don't have to have that experience. I want to watch every play live. All bets are off in Ireland. You just never know. The other thing, I mean, Pittsburgh's defense, super gettable. I mean, I'm not saying that Wentz is the guy that's going to get them, but I do like Jordan Mason. I like what he showed us.

And he didn't have to play the fourth quarter against the Bengals. Highsmiths still off to the Stewards. Another angle I like, Craig Horlebeck and the fantasy football guys are going to be there. Craig, big Steelers fan, about to shed some Irish tears. Watching Aaron Rogers

backpedaling for his life for three hours. You can drown those tears in a delicious Guinness and a Jameson. That's what I recommend. Jameson and a little Jameson and then a little Guinness. Last one, Pats, minus five and a half or minus 250 against the Panthers.

There's just abysmal stats for the Panthers here about dogs after a money line win the next week is really bad. Panthers hurt on the offensive line. Gonzalez is going to be back for the Patriots on defense. Carolina's offense 30th yards per play. Their defense, 32nd in sacks, 30 second in QB hits, 30 second in hurries,

and 31st in tackles. Oh, that sounds wonderful. The Pat's offense, 8th and first downs, seven passing? They moved the ball up and down the goddamn football field against the Steelers. Here's the thing. Let me just say this also. Another thing I'm going to say out loud for us to hear, we're not going to be

pussies. We're going to lay the fucking number. We're going to go ahead and lay the five and a half. We're going to do it. We're grown-ass, man, we're trying to win picks on this show. The number's five and a half. It's to me a little light. If it was seven, I might like tap the brakes, but there's nothing instructive about

the way that Carolina handled Atlanta. There are no takeaways from that game that inform what's going to happen in this game. The inside rush ability, the Patriots have a pass rush. It is a good pass rush. Barmore and Milton, what's Milton's last name?

Milton Williams. Milton Williams. Were you just about to Doris Burke me and call him Mr. Milton? I got that close. I got that close. I love that idea of them getting Bryce. young off his spot. Get that man moving and then good things happen in terms of

turnovers. I want to go ahead and lay the five and a half. If they can't win by seven against his Panthers team, this season's going to be awful. But I really think the Pats, I had McShay on before you. McShay was saying the same thing. He thinks the Pats by like week 10, week 11, there's going to be something there. I really think there's something here with the Pats.

And I thought they should have won last week. The other thing is to that point, the handicap for last week was correct. It was a good handicap on the Patriots. They just turned the fucking ball over five times. Let's just not do that this week. We fumbled on the goal line and we threw a goal line tipped pick. Let's not do that. All right.

So it sounds like we have five picks that we like. No parlias this week for us. We're just doing five straightups because the fifth one right now would be Raiders, bears. and we could run from that one and do... Yeah, that's the one we put a pin in. I'd rather just do a money line parlay. Okay. So you want to do like a Packers-Texans money lines parlay?

That's the one. Let's go to Texas where the Texans are, you know, sending Callahan home, Tommy Boy Callahan. All right. Well, you know what? Let's take a break. We'll figure out what we'll do. We'll come back.

We'll do our ringer 107 picks. You're going to break down the Ryder Cup for us and tell us how to win money and better against our country. With the RBC Avion Visa, you can book any airline, any flight, any time. So start ticking off your travel list. Grand Canyon? Grand. Great barrier reef? Great. Galapagos? Galapago. Switch and get up to 55,000 avion points that never expire. Your idea of never missing out happens here. Conditions apply. visit rbc.com slash avion

and now it's time for a special part of today's episode it's brought to you by NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube TV two things I really like

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House and I just, we just did a 25-minute break. Poor Gahow and poor Eduardo were just sitting there pouring gasoline on themselves, like the people in airplane, as we just debated, tried to figure out odds, trying to figure out what our parlay was going to be. and I think we ended up in a right place because we had to obey House's edict that we had to be men, put chest hair in our chests,

for me to act like a guy whose birthday it is and just got on the pat straight up. Happy birthday to you! Thank you. Just to go pat straight up minus five and a half. So here we go. The Ringer 107 for week four,

we are five and ten. Hopefully we're 10 and 10 after these five picks. We decided not to do the Raiders bears. We talked about a lot. If we were 10 and 5, I would bet on Gino Smith, but we're 5 and 10, so we can't. So we are going to bet on the Jags plus three and a half against the very, very, very banged-up San Francisco 49ers. Both House and I like the Jags, just in general.

We're not going to apologize either. We think they're pretty talented, correct? They are talented. They have to stop self-sabotaging. Well, we're taking the Falcons plus one and a half against your beloved Washington, see words. And we're doing it because we're five and ten. And if we have to bet against one of our favorite teams, we're going to

do that. Not a great spot for your team. Speaking of self-sabotage, yes. We like the Falcons with a bounce back. We're going to Ireland for a 630 PT start, Viking Steelers. Both of us absolutely love the Vikings minus one and a half. This is a rule breaker special. We are breaking the rules.

We're breaking the rules of don't bet on this game ever. Don't bet on a game that starts before 10 a.m. on a Sunday. And don't bet on a game with a bunch of drunk Irish people. Don't bet on Carson Wentz. I'm 25% Irish. Don't bet on Carson Wentz. Another rule we're breaking.

But bet against Aaron Rogers. And bet against a fraudulent Steelers team are two really good rules. So we're taking the Vikings minus one and a half. We're going to bet the Patriots straight up minus five and a half at home against Carolina Panthers. We think the Pats are better than the record. I think the Panthers are probably a little worse than their record. Well, they've only won one game. yeah they're one and two and they should be minus one and four we're going to take the pad straight up

and then this is what we debated we threw in a bunch of people in this we really wanted to put the packers in a parley we did we tried so hard we wanted to figure out a packers Texans parley but the minus 120 rule for ringer 107 the bed has to be minus 120 or better from an odd standpoint and we just couldn't make it work we turned to our old friend Patrick Mahome in the Kansas City Chiefs. We are doing the Packers minus two and a half against Dallas, a team that will not have CD Lamb

that would be going against Michael Parsons and we do not think they're going to be able to move the ball that well and we expect a Green Bay bounce back. So minus two and a half and we're putting them with the Chiefs Altline on Fando plus seven and a half. Yeah.

Close Chiefs Ravens game. I had to talk you into it. Something scared you. Is it the Ravens offense scared you? What scared you? That's literally it. The Ravens' offense is incredible.

Speaking of self-sabotage, if Derek Henry stops fumbling, you know, the crucial moments of the game when they're driving to go up by significant margin. I was hoping that we could figure out a way to get the Chiefs by eight and a half,

but seven and a half is satisfactory because the Chiefs at home don't lose by margin. Xavier Worthy back. Yep. I mean, really, the Chiefs are going to get blown out by double digits at home and go

one and three to start the season? I don't think so. Ravens defense is bad. The chief should be able to run the ball, some Pacheco. I feel okay with this house. Those are a ringer 107 picks. I hope we turn it around. Today's ringer 107 brought to by Fandle.

It's subject to change. Okay. Let's talk about something you are passionate about. The Ryder Cup. You've been just putting more and more money on the other team that's not America? Over and over again, You bet as the foreigners keep winning PGA tournaments and you would just sprinkle more and more

rider cup money in them. But now you're going to the Ryder Cup with our buddy Nathan Hubbard and you're going to root for America. Do people know you're a turncoat? What's the deal? Well, I've been public about the fact that as a rational better, when I'm trying to help all of the birdie buddies out there put a little bit of green U.S. dollars in their pockets, the rational bet is on Europe.

And Europe at the moment is getting on the Fandul's sports book. Let's see. I think they're plus 160, right? Plus 170, right? And the U.S. is minus 150. So your take is you feel like this is basically 50-50. That is my take. And the foreign side, the bad guys are plus 170 and a 50-50 matchup

where they have a more experienced team. You pointed out on the Ring and Gambling Show, yesterday. It's basically the exact same team as they had in the last Ryder Cup except for a twin brother switch. Yeah, if you took the picture of 2023 and the picture of this year, it looks the same. Same team. I wanted, it's like nothing, nothing is different. I want to explain on a point you guys made that I thought, I've been thinking the same

thing because this is such a hard ticket to get and it's so expensive. And everybody is like, Rider Cup in New York, this is going to be crazy? And it's like, is it going to be crazy? And it's like, is it going to be crazy? because did you see the U.S. Open tennis crowd? Yes. Yes, I did. Similar kind of, oh, you really need connections and some money to get here.

And oh, here's what's that drink to have at the U.S. Open, the honey glaze or whatever it's called? Yeah, that's right. With $38. And right, yeah, $38 drink. You should get an overpriced sandwich from David Chang. Just kidding. I just want to make sure he's listening.

That's a Chang. I just want to make sure he's listening. Overpriced short-ripped sandwich from Chang, $39. But anyway, that's just kidding, check. That's going to be the vibe at this thing, right? Are normal people going to be at this? There will be, yeah, you know, some folks, and they did, you know, offer up a set of tickets.

But, you know, the early movers and the bulk of it, I think was folks moving in on expensive ticket packages. It's all people like Vino from CAA. be there wearing a vest. Speaking of, where's my hat? There we go. I have my Bino.

Yeah, there we go. Yeah. He'll be there with some snazzy vest, shaking hands. But it's going to be a lot of that. It's going to be a lot of people that we know. Poor Bino. Guess what?

People like us don't make a lot of noise at golf tournaments. I mean, you know, it depends on how many things ahead. But we're not like, you want people like the J-Bug circuit in 1995 at this thing. That's what you need. You want like hardcore people in their 20s who are like,

I'm going to fuck with that. That fucking guy from Germany. I'm going to fuck with that guy. Tiro Hatton, right? You know, Tiro, you piece of shit. Fuck you. All right. So give us some bets that we should do this weekend with the cup.

Well, in the first place, yes, the Europe price remains attractive at plus 170. They announced the first four matches tomorrow morning. It is this alternate shot. It's going to pour rain tomorrow morning. So it's like, isn't it now? I don't know. We're going to see, you know, the weather forecast is iffy indeed. It's been, it rained today out there.

The four matchups are bright, the lead off is Bryson D. Shambo and Justin Thomas. So we're going to coming out with bangers up against John Rom and Tyrell Hatton, speaking of. And the line on that match is Rom and Hatton plus a hundred, 100, so even money. And Deschambeau and Thomas are plus 130. I love the ROM hat and combo. Yeah, and that's like one of our best duos. That's not a good sign for us winning the thing when we're not even favorites in a match where we're throwing those guys out. I don't know whether or not it's one of our best duos. It's an enormous unknown. What's our best duo in your opinion? What's the one you're counting on the most? In this foursome format, which is the alt-shot,

our best team is Scotty Sheffler and Russell Henley. Russell Henley, deadly short game specialists. And Sheffler, you know, will put them in good position. And, you know, unsurprisingly, that team is favored by a good margin over Ludwig Oberg and Matt Fitzpatrick. The Sheffler-Henley team is minus 165. If you want to lay that, I'm not mad at you. I think that's a perfectly fair price. Should have put that with the Packers.

There's nothing stopping us. There's still time. Yeah, I mean, you can build any kind of parlay. I already parlayed the Europe to have the first day lead with the Georgia Bulldogs. That was like plus 223 tomorrow on the Fandu a sports book. You can't do any shenanigans with Bringer 107 because Sheriff J.J. gets upset. He just wants to know what the rules are. I don't know.

I'm not mad at J. And you like that, what was the other one you like? Just for the, there was one, what was the, I'm blanking. There are, there are some, there's one golfer you love. There's, there are some matchups. Yeah, there are some matchup. So Victor Hovlin is matched up in, you know, who will win more points in this tournament? Victor Hovlin or Cam Young.

Cam Young was favored at minus 148 and Hovlin was like plus 110 or something like that. Hovlin has played every single session of the last two Rider Cups. He played all five sessions in 2021, and he played all five sessions in 2023. And, you know, that the Euro team comes in with analytics saying, yeah, we think that Halman's a good investment. So I just think for Cam Young, he's the king of New York. He was born and, oh, I don't know where he was born, but he was raised out in the Hudson Valley. His dad was a golf pro out at Sleepy Hollow, and he as a kid won a tournament.

at Beth Page, and I think set the course record. So he has, like, good, good vibes at Beth Page. But that price is crazy to me for a rookie. Baby Doll is going to be there at Rider Cup, to no surprise. I wonder if there's, so all I have to do is go find the smoking area. That's where Baby Doll will be. Find the smoking area. Also try to find the odds on Fendell for amount of hours,

baby was at the Rider Cup this weekend compared to a amount of, of ours who's in L.A. for Jimmy's show. What did he need to be at Jimmy's show for? The Ryder Cup is favored by 38 hours. More details to come on Sunday's pod. I'm backing baby on this one. What do they need to be at the show for? His work was done.

The fact that there's a show, that's the work. That's what Baby Doll is there for. Jimmy's on the show. Is there a show? Yes. My work is done. Where's the golf tournament? I can't do a Baby Doll accent.

Baby. Come on. I got to meet Carson Daly. He's hosting a Ryder Cup thing. He did. He did host one. Yeah. Baby's very excited for this.

He really feels like this is this is going to be a special weekend for America. I'm a little more dubious. There are some unbelievable home field advantage Rider Cup stats, at least for the last six or seven.

So that is tense. Hence the thing. I'd be surprised if we won. Wow. I would. I would be surprised. Why? I just think that foreign team, the one thing they haven't done lately is come on our turf and take the cup.

I thought what Sal said about how the draw 10 to 1 and Europe gets to keep the cup, that's an interesting one. But I would bet they raise the trophy bet for Europe, which I think was like plus 125, something like that. Here, let's look and see if that's changed any. Because then you're covered with the, stupid draw, because they could always play for the drop. To lift the trophy,

USA minus 140, Europe plus 124. So that's like closer to the implied probability of those odds. Yeah. Yeah. So you're going on Saturday. People should know if they run into you. You love buying drinks. I hope to be

going from hospitality tent to hospitality tent, just helping myself. I don't plan on. Is there a signature drink? That's a great question. I don't what would it be? Like a Bethpage. Yeah, I'm sure.

Bethpage spritzer? Probably, probably, yeah. Bethpage splash? I haven't done any of that research yet. Patriotic punch? I'm not planning on buying any of any drinks, spending on my own money on that. Let Vino buy you drinks if you run out. Vino, yeah, come through, baby.

He'll have, I guarantee he'll have a really nice Riter Cup, 2005 vest. All right, House, have a great time. I really hope we're 10 and 10 next. time I talk to you. You and me both. I'm knocking on wood. Good job by us. Good job by us.

See you later. All right. Thanks to Todd. Thanks to House. Thanks to Gahua and Eduardo as well. Don't forget prestige TV task Sunday night and then new rewatchable is coming Monday. So you have four days here to watch this thing. And I will be back on Sunday night with the Cuzz.

And we'll talk about some of the, we both went to Jimmy Kimmel's show on Tuesday, which was fantastic. Just a great experience, but we'll talk about all the stuff that happened on Jimmy this week, and we'll talk about Sunday night football and college football and a whole bunch more. Enjoy the weekend. I'm off to enjoy my birthday, and I will see you on Sunday. Must be 21 plus of President's Select States for Kansas and affiliate. with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus

in President of D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 100 gambler or visit RG-Helfthelp.com. Call 188-789-777-7. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit MDGamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here.

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