The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Case for K.C., Strongest NFL Opinions, Chet’s Injury, and Westbrook’s Future With Peter Schrager and Chris Mannix

Episode Date: August 26, 2022

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Peter Schrager of NFL Network and Fox Sports to declare definitively whether they are in or out on a range of NFL topics, including a Rams Super Bowl Hangover, Trey Lance, Russell Wilson, the reloaded Bengals, the new-look Chiefs, the Raiders, and more (1:40). Then, Bill talks with Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated about Chet Holmgren’s potential season-ending injury during a pro-am game, the Thunder’s expectations for the upcoming NBA season, and a proposed Lakers-Pacers trade (58:32). Plus, did the Celtics offer Jaylen Brown for Kevin Durant? A boxing update, and more (1:17:46). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Peter Schrager and Chris Mannix Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, we put up our 250th movie for the rewatchables, Descent of a Woman, but all 250 movies are available on all platforms. You should also check out youtube.com slash Bill Simmons. We put together like a 13 minute video of all the movies we've done with some clips from some rewatchables podcasts. Check it out.

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Kevin O'Connor popped on there today to talk about the Celtics. I have not been on that podcast yet. I will definitely be on that podcast within the next, by the end of August. I'm just barreling in there and complaining about something or touting something. We're going to talk Celtics a little bit later, actually, with

Chris Mannix. We talked about the Chet Holmgren injury, talked about the Lakers and the Beverly trade, and then some boxing too. That's later. Coming up first, Peter Schrager playing a little game called Plant the Flag for the 2022 NFL season. Just what are your opinions? You got to triple down on them.

And it's late August and it's time to talk football and it's time to have some real thoughts, some real intuitions. So I have some flags I'm ready to plant. Trigger did that as well. It is all next. First, our friends Peter Schrager is here from the NFL Network and from Fox. He's going to be joining us on Million Dollar Picks this season. We're going to talk about a lot of different NFL storylines. I didn't tell you what I had planned today.

I'm dropping it on you. Going in blind. I mean, I haven't seen you or your podcast in a month. I thought you were doing The Masked Singer for a while there, but it's nice to have you back in the flesh here. Tell me, what are we doing? I'm excited. We're playing a game called Plant the Flag. I think there, I wrote down a whole bunch of 2022 NFL subplot slash debate slash questions that I feel like there's no middle ground. Okay. It's be on one side or the other. You can't, you can't hedge. You can't like dip your foot in the water. It's just, there's too many things where it's like, all right,

where do you stand? It can't be both. You got to go one in the water. It's just, there's too many things where it's like, all right, where do you stand? It can't be both. You got to go one or the other. One of my favorite things in sports media right now is they could arguably maybe possibly be really good this year. None of that. No arguably possibly maybes. We're not doing that. You could make the argument.

Don't be surprised if. Yeah, we're not doing that. We're planting our flag. I'll start off with an easy one for you. The Rams, a team that we've spent a lot of time talking about on this podcast. You're a flying coach with McVay. Rams Super Bowl hangover.

Plant your flag. Believer? Concern? Or are they going to be as good as they were last year? You can't do the maybe possibly thing. Concerned. Concerned. Me too.

Is that a shocker? Knowing that I lie in bed and spoon with McVay all night? My only concern is that it was so difficult for them last year to do what they did and they did it. And the thought of doing it all over again, I wonder if they realize that it's going to take all of that and more to do it. And I don't question the coaching staff and what they can do. And I'll tell you, Sean went on his honeymoon after they got married in June and read like 11 books.

One of the books he read was Phil Jackson's 11 Rings is what it's called. And it was like the book, and that one really signed to him. And he's like, came back with like, and their whole mantra right now is, write a new chapter. And like, that's what everything, write a new chapter. But gosh, it's so hard. And to see them all do the banquet circuit and to see them all, you know, get their kudos and then Whitworth leaves and Aaron Donald's thinking about

leaving and Stafford was- And Mc and Aaron Donald's thinking about leaving and Stafford was thinking about leaving. I just, I have picked the Rams to go to the Superbowl three of the last four years. I picked them to win the Superbowl before the season last year. Like I feel good. I can put myself in the back. I am telling you as, as much as I love them and I am, and I, and I think they've got all the talent in the world there. And I think what they do is, is first class. I don't know if I can plant my flag and say that. I don't think there's at least a little bit of a concern of, can you do it all over again? Because last year, what they did down the stretch

was pretty miraculous with the injuries that they had to succumb. So offensive line's worse. We can say that. Running game, I don't feel awesome about. I don't think it's, you could say maybe it's a draw from last year. I don't feel awesome about. I don't think it's... You could say maybe it's a draw from last year. I don't think they improved it. It's hard to imagine Cup having

the same season he had last year. He had one of the greatest receiving seasons in the history of the league. Like, just running that back again, staying healthy, doing that for 20 games. Little far-fetched. Odell really brought them something extra. Now they're saying Allen Robinson. Allen Robinson, completely different player than Odell.

Who's the undrafted guy everybody's excited about? McClutchin. Yeah, so could McClutchin do it? I don't know. Well, let's see if McClutchin makes the team. Yeah, let's see if he makes the team. That's not a sure thing. I think he's been great and he's been leading the preseason in receiving yards, but he's an undrafted rookie at a Montana state. Let's slow down. Yeah. And their schedule, there's a couple stretches in that schedule.

Now, on the bright side for that, and we forgot to mention Stafford, who now shoulder and elbow. There's two parts of the arm that he throws football with that we're now concerned about. On the flip side, the division's weaker. And Trey Lance, who we're going to plant our flag on Trey Lance in a little bit, but to make the case that NFC West is just taking a free fall down and maybe it's just going to be way easier to win that division.

I'm concerned. I don't have this finalized yet. We've got to mention that AFC West is one of the divisions they're playing this year. NFC West and AFC West, yep. So, I have them as a wildcard team. And I think that's where I'm going to plant my flag.

I don't feel myself wavering on that. We'll get to the Trey Lance piece in a second. But I just think it's going to be a harder year. Maybe it's 11-6. I think they win the division. I think they 11-6. Maybe it's a little rocky. I think they win the division. I'm not saying that they can't. I'm just saying the Super Bowl hangover, yeah, that's real. It's just it's a different team. Maybe Robinson, look, at the last drive of the season, after Odell goes down and Stafford's under center and he looks to his right

and it's Ben Skrull neck at wide receiver. It's Bryson Hopkins at tight end. It's a one leg advanced Jefferson. Cause he was playing hurt at the other wide receiver spot and it was Cooper cup. And it was like, all right, we're just gonna have to win the game with wheel routes to Daryl Henderson and Cooper cup, Cooper cup, Cooper cup. They did it. It was amazing. It was an unbelievable win. It was a miraculous win. And the, you could very much argue that the bucks win was a miraculous win. And you could very much argue that the Bucks win was a miraculous win after almost giving that one away. And then of course the Niners game, if Tartt intercepts that pass, who knows? So for me, I'm not saying that they can't do it. I'm just saying to write them in

pen as repeat champions, I'm not there yet. Me neither. All right. Well, let's go to Trey Lansdowne really quick because this feels like a yes or no thing to me. The Niners, who I think just have a shitload of talent. You go through their team and they have to have a top four or five top to bottom roster. They figured out the Debo situation. They were right there last year. It's like a little hunger chip under them. But the Lance thing is the big variable. Where are you planting your flag on Lance? I'm not planting a flag on Trey Lance this year. I don't know enough yet because as much as everyone sees a deep pass in preseason to Danny Gray and against the Packers, you're like, oh, 86 yards are good. And you'd like to think, oh, well, if Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are willing to get rid of Jimmy, they must be all in. I also hear dispatches from practice that he is inaccurate on some days and that the defense owned the offense on some days. What I will plant my flag and they'll be in it to the end because of how good the rest of the team is.

He doesn't have, he just, he can't be the reason they don't go. Like in other words, don't mess it up for us. It's year one. I think they have very high hopes for him moving forward. But for the first year, he's the full-time starter. Rely on the run game. Rely on Trent Williams, the best offensive tackle in football. Let Bosa and Armstead lead the way on defense. Let Freddie Warner do his thing. They are, pound for pound,

maybe the best roster in football. The question mark is that quarterback spot. And he can do it with his legs. We know he's got a big arm. I just wouldn't put too much on his shoulder. So I would say I'll plant my flag that the Niners will be relevant and it will be a playoff team and all that. But I cannot plant my flag that Trey Lance is going to be Mahomes in his first year as starter. I don't see that happening just yet. So we see it the same. I'm planting my flag on, they will figure out how to win with the things that he's good at and limit all the stuff that he's either inexperienced at or not good at yet. They will construct some sort of

machine around him that he can't really hurt them and most of the stuff he does is additive. I do not think he's Mahomes. I don't see a situation where like Trey Lance's and his MVP odds went down on FanDuel. People were betting it. That's where I'm like, I'm out. That's not happening.

But I think he could have games where they're just going to try to get him the lead, put him on the offensive, basically, where you're always in third and three, third and four, and teams aren't going to know if he's going to run left, run right, quick passes, stuff like that. But it's not going to be Mahomes. There's also some other departures that are important. So obviously, Kyle Shanahan's the head coach and he'll be working with him, but Mike McDaniel was very important on that offense. He's in Miami now. They don't have an offensive coordinator by title, but their quarterbacks coach is Brian Greasy, who was doing Monday night football last year and has never called a game in

his NFL career, has never coached an NFL game. And that was the hire. And now Shanahan had him and his father had him. And it was like, we trust Brian to do this. But to me, first-year quarterback, first-year quarterback coach, there are other important guys on that offensive staff, whether it be Rich Scalandrello, who's back at Kentucky, or whether it be Wes Welker, who went to Miami. There was a lot of changes on that offense. It just seems like it's a lot. And it's a lot on Kyle Shanahan's shoulders to say, okay, first-year starter, all these new coaches, go out and replicate what you did.

It'll take some time. I think they're going to be a lot better the second half of the season than they are the first half of the season. Well, and as great as Trent Williams is, the offensive line is worse than it was last year. So it's not a real concern, but there's not the same offensive line.

So, um, I'm okay with them. I have them as a playoff team. Let's stay with the NFC West for the next point, your flag, even though he's now in the AFC West, Russell Wilson.

Yeah. This is a great plant. The flag. It is. You're either buying that the last couple of years where everyone else's fall and Pete Carroll's fall and Russ, it's going to have the eye of the tiger on a new team. They're going to unleash him.

And they, you know, Javante Williams, Melvin Gordon, he's got a couple of receivers of the, they did lose Tim Patrick. Um, and it is going to be like when Manning went to Denver,

like when some quarterbacks have switched teams in that first year. And it's just like, Oh my God, Brady Stafford. Yeah. Brady. Plus he's not drew lock. So I get all of that. It's just like, oh my God. Brady, Stafford. Yeah, Brady. Plus he's not Drew Locke.

So I get all of that. I just think that the Wilson that we remember from the 14-15 range is gone. And the reason I think that is because that's what the stats say. We've covered this a lot. Stephen Ruiz has been on this on the Ringer NFL show. When he doesn't scramble,

he's not the same guy and he doesn't scramble anymore. As he's gotten older, he just doesn't move around the same way. So what do you get? You get this 5'10 pocket passer who doesn't make teams worry about his legs on the side. I don't think those last two years were an aberration. I just think that's who he is as a quarterback now. And I think he's going to be a little disappointing for Denver. I think people are still thinking of him as this franchise awesome QB. And I don't see it anymore with him. So I'm planting my flag on that. I'm looking around my Brooklyn apartment,

looking under all the William Sonoma stuff we got for our wedding. I'm looking for a flag. I'm in. I'm in on Wilson. I think this guy is lifting them up already. You're in. Okay. I'm planting the damn flag. I think Russ is going to be great this year. And Nathaniel Hackett is the new head coach. This guy is brimming with energy and he's the anti-Vic Fangio, who's a great defensive coach, but is of a different generation and a different ilk. This guy just is like Pete Carroll reincarnated, but it's youthful energy, exuberance, all this stuff. In comes Russ. Russ has been unbelievable this summer as far as getting with the young guys, setting

the example early in, last one out, the whole thing. And I think that market, Denver, is a football town. And they have been devoid of football since 2016 when Peyton left. They are a fine NBA and they won the Stanley Cup and you can talk about the Rockies, but when the Broncos are working, that is a football town and I feel like they're ready.

It is a boiling pot right now and Russ is going to get them there. I feel really confident that Russell not only is going to have the Broncos playing relevant football, I think he's going to be in the MVP conversation. I'm that high on them. See, this is why this is a great plant the flag

topic. So I see that world. If you're telling me all of a sudden Russ from five years ago is back, I'm there. But then my question is what happened in the last two years? Why didn't he play that way? So the way you're saying he's going to play in Denver, he just chose not to play that way in Seattle the last two years? No, he had really good weapons in Seattle. Yeah, he did. And last year, he basically picked the offensive coordinator. He said he wanted Shane Waldron. I get all that stuff.

I think they come here and it's just fresh blood. It's new. And I feel like that is exactly what everyone needed in that situation, including the Seattle side. I feel like that thing had been done. And it situation, including the Seattle side. I feel like that, that, that thing had been done and it wasn't just Russell. Bobby Wagner's no longer there. KJ Wright's no longer there. They they're turning the page in Seattle. And I think they were in this weird transition phase.

Denver has been building for four years and has been adding guys, you know, like Sertan last year and like Cortland Sutton, and you can name all the running backs you want. And I think their offensive line is solid. I think Denver has a really good roster and was a quarterback away. And they got one of the top quarterbacks in the league this off season. So I feel good.

I feel like he comes right out of the gates and it's like, oh shit, the Broncos are back. They're relevant. All right. So that was my next point at the flag. If you had to pick a division with three playoff teams, who would you take them? I think AFC West. I think they're the best by far right now. And I might say they could do all four, but the new format was seven teams. You can get a division

winner in three wild cards. We can go through all the teams in that division, but I think Denver's legit. I think KC's legit. And I think the Chargers and Raiders both can win nine games, even with the division opponents. I think that division is that loaded. I would, I would go with that division. So the other candidate is the AFC North, which leads me to the next point,

the flag. Okay. I, I'm more in on Cincy this year than last year. And by the way, I wasn't all in because they cost, you were there for million dollar picks. We were up 21 to three.

We got crushed. We had a thousand things in the parlay. What about the Tennessee game? Nine sacks! Cincinnati just murdered us until the Super Bowl. We were finally able to get it back. But I think more, you know, there's always that you lose the Super Bowl,

you go backwards. Like that's a recurring thing. I actually don't feel that way with Cincinnati. I think they tech, you know, there's always that you lose the Superbowl, you go backwards. Like that's a recurring thing. I, I actually don't feel that way since then. I think they're loaded. Burrow be two years after the, uh, the knee surgery.

Um, I'm just all in on this team. I think that experience is valuable for them. People say like Buffalo has the best top to bottom roster in the league. And man, you go like, go look at like the 12 best players on bottom roster in the league. And man, you go like, go look at like the 12 best players on every roster. Cincy's top 12 is better than Buffalo's top 12. You could argue Buffalo's

deeper. I'm just in on Cincy. So I guess the question would be then, well, we'll start with Cincy, but the question for me, if you get three teams out of that division, then you have to talk yourself into Pittsburgh, which we'll do later. But are you, are you in or out on Cincy? I'm in on Cincinnati. And, and we talked about it on good morning football this morning too. Like now can they handle being the hunted? Cause last year their schedule was cake this year. It's going to be a lot harder in the Superbowl champion, the AFC champion. And you know, last year, Joe Burrow was still coming off an ACL that first half of the season. And they clicked in the second half. I got a text from somebody who's been at the joint practices, neither on either coaching staff, but someone neutral at the Rams-Bengals joint practice this week. And they're like,

Jamar Chase is absolutely amazing. And what he did last year, he's been in the lab working this whole offseason. You add him with Higgins and with Boyd, the window might not be that big for them because the Bengals are going to pay these guys. Eventually, all of them are going to want to get paid. This is the year you've got everyone coming back. They added on the offensive line, Lyle Collins and Karras and the kid from Alex Kappa from Tampa. And like, I feel like they're going to be back. And they're not one of these teams that got lucky and got, you know, they went and they beat Casey twice. They beat the Ravens twice. Like they, they did it last year and they won in tough situations. And quite frankly, I don't think

Burrow is one of these quarterbacks that like reads the headlines and is like, oh, I'm too famous to, to suddenly, you know, be, be putting the work in. I, I think Cincinnati is going to be tough, tough to beat this year. You said the schedule is tougher. I don't know. It should be tougher on paper. Five road games against playoff teams. That doesn't include in New Orleans,

which is a different deal. Ian Book isn't playing quarterback for them this year. AFC East, NFC South. Are there two divisions? It's fair. I'm okay with the AFC East, especially like, I don't know what people are thinking with this Jet stuff, but you go first four weeks,

Pittsburgh, at Dallas. Dallas is really now, we'll get to them in a little bit. At the Jets, home Miami. They have the at Baltimore, at New Orleans combo. Atlanta, at Cleveland, no Deshaun. So they get them at least once early. Carolina home.

And I don't know. I just, I wasn't that scared by the schedule. And I also think like they learned some stuff from last year, right? Like Higgins is a legitimate, he's a really, really high end number two. Yeah. Who would be a number one on half the teams in the league. He's a beast. I didn't, I went to the AFC championship game in the Super Bowl and I'm there at warm-ups. Higgins is like 6'4 and is just an absolute monster. And then Chase is so electric. Those two guys with Burrow, if they're healthy, they're very hard to beat. Well, and then Mixon,

who I think was probably one of the five best running backs last season. And it seemed like the more they used him, the better they were. They made their offensive line better, as you said. I'm just all in on them. I guess the question would be Pittsburgh, but we can... I don't even know how you plant your flag on that.

Can you plant your flag on Kenny Pickett? Well, Baltimore, we're going to do that later, but Pittsburgh, could that be a Jimmy G team or no? I'm not going to say no, but I know that they feel pretty good about the room right now as much as it seems like they have two quarterbacks which means you have none like Trubisky's been great in camp and Pickett's been outstanding so it's been great

in camp or confident Trubisky is their guy right now and I you know I this when Pickett is announcing the starter I'll regret saying this but like I know that Trubisky has played very well in camp this summer. And I think that he's going to be the week one starter and they're happy with him and Pickett's been exceeded expectations. So I don't know if you want to add Jimmy G in, you know, late August or early September into the mix. Cause we agree. San Francisco is going to wave Jimmy G. I think so. Cap wise. They'll have to.

Very similar to the Cam-Mac Jones thing last year where why would you have the old guy hanging around? You need to start fresh with the new younger guy and it's his team

and that's it. And like Jimmy hasn't, I don't know how much I can reveal, he hasn't really been in the meeting rooms. He hasn't really been, it's not like he's,

he hasn't done anything wrong, but it's been totally Trey Lance's team. To even have Jimmy around right now is almost like an impediment. He's like a lame duck almost. Yeah. So if it's not Pittsburgh, where does he go? You could say New Orleans.

You could say Miami if Tua just shits the bed completely. But there's not a lot of options for him. I don't know. Giants maybe? I don't know. I don't have a team for Jimmy Garoppolo right now. And I don't think as much as Seattle seems like that's a need, they seem like they're pretty dug in on their two guys.

Every quote out of Pete Carroll, it's like you think that they're going to Canton, Geno Smith and Drew Locke, the way he talks about them. I haven't seen it, but I don't have a team for Jimmy G. I was thinking all along, I thought Mayfield to Carolina made sense. And if not that Jimmy G, but I don't have a place for Garoppolo at the moment.

We're gonna take a break and talk about the chiefs. Hey, NFL kickoff still a few weeks away, but you can get it on the action right now. I'm Fando sports book with their NFL super win bonus right now. Anyone who places at least a $50 Superbowl winner bet. We'll get $5 back for each win. Your team has during the regular season.

If you stay tuned in this next segment, I'm going to make the case for the Kansas City Chiefs for this exact bet right here. I think they're 10 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, but that is the team I am planting my flag on. I'm going to make the case in one second. There's also a ton of other futures markets available. Team win totals, division winners, player props, worst record. We're going to talk about that in a second. It's so much more. No better place to get ready for the football season than on FanDuel America's number one

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Connecticut, 888-789-7777. In Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, 1-800-GAMBLER. In Michigan, 800-270-7117. 1-877-770-STOP. In Louisiana, 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help in Michigan. 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. Tennessee red line is 800-889-9789. And in West Virginia, 1800-GAMBLER.net. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.

Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research.

And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right. New segment, starting with the Chiefs. That is my number one ride or die plant by flag team. I think with the Chiefs, you either have number one ride or die plant by flag team. I think with the Chiefs, you either have to say they're going to be better or they're going to be worse, but you can't say they're the same because they're not because Tyreek Hill is no longer on the team and they're shifting what they want to do offensively, at least a little bit. I think from by all accounts, they got pretty spooked by how defenses were just playing them last year and just kind of daring them to

run the ball. And they weren't really equipped to run the ball that Hill couldn't really block. Kelsey can't really block. And they just, Cincinnati and a couple other teams definitely stumbled on some sort of recipe that they have now fixed. I am planting my flag on the Casey will be better real estate. I said this on Tuesday's pod. The offensive line, which basically, it's the first full year together, but for the most part, they're together. They invested heavily in it.

They struck oil with their center that they drafted. And they've just- Creed. They either have the best offensive line in the league or the second best offensive line. And for me, Mahomes plus time is the scariest thing in the league. And I don't really care who his receivers are

because if he has three to five to seven seconds to throw every play, guys are going to get open and he's going to find them. And there's also a little bit of that whole just incredibly embarrassing playoff loss. There's some Burrow Herbert buzz. Josh Allen.

The little Josh Allen. There's a little bit of the Rocky IV running around on the mountain, trying to see how high you can go with the parka on to the Mahomes season. I'm all in. I'm going to pick them to win the Super Bowl, and that's my team. This is the stuff that Kansas City Chiefs fans have been looking for because, Bill, I'm in the same boat. Oh, no.

I'm taking my flag. We never talked about this. We're aligned on this. I almost don't like the fact that you did all that spiel because that would have been my spiel. And I'll go even further with it. Mahomes is a different cat. And I've gotten to know him a little bit. And this offseason, I spent some time in Kansas City.

This guy watches everything. And when I say watches everything, I mean, he watches what people say. He watches how teams are reacting, how other teams are responding, but he's taking notes on all of this. And there've been analysts out there who have said that the chiefs are going to be the fourth place team in the AFC West. There are others who have crowned Josh Allen as already, you know, the top player in the league. And like Mahomes has been sitting back there and waiting and watching. And this room of wide receivers is not Tyreek Hill. It is a variety of guys. And Juju, prior to the injury, he'll be fine, has looked amazing as a number one guy. Marquez Valdez-Scantling,

who quite frankly, Rodgers lost trust in because he wasn't running the right routes at times. He wasn't always there. Mahomes, different type of person in the huddle. I think that's going to work. Sky Moore, the rookie, excellent so far. Justin Watson out of the University of Pennsylvania who can't- Fantasy sleeper. Justin Watson, who wears number 84, has been a beast in practice. And then you add all the different big men at tight end with Kelsey and Fortson and, and Noah gray,

like there are weapons and Pacheco number 10, the new running back from Rutgers. Like awesome. This is the type of team that everyone's going to discount and say, well, is this the year they fall off a cliff? And like my home, isn't going to let it happen.

And I, I trust my homes and Andy Reed, and maybe I trust them to a fault, but all the reasons you said, and they might have the best young defenders in, in Nick Bolton at number 54, who's right there playing the linebacker spot, their second round pick last year.

And they believe that they've got, you know, in luxurious need and 32, the safety, they've got a great young defensive backfield. You know, everyone's reaction was how could you not sign the Honey Badger? And there's a reason they don't re-sign the Honey Badger.

They think that they've got- How about a little Frank Clark comeback year? Frank Clark comeback year. Chris Jones is somehow still back. A little Chris Jones playing in the right spot for the whole season? I'm telling you, they are very bullish on themselves in that building,

but not in a boastful way, but just that, yeah. You guys talk about Tyreek all you want, and good luck to Tyreek, but in that building, but not in a boastful way, but just that like, yeah, you guys talk about Tyreek all you want and good luck to Tyreek, but all that stuff, they've been stacking the chips. And I feel like they're, you've seen it in the preseason games, their lights out.

And I know it's just preseason, but Mahomes doesn't have to play in these games. I think there's a bit of him and Andy wanting to show the world like, all right, all right. Doubt us. You should doubt us. Go for it.

And I, and I'm not going to be one of those people to do that. Who's had the most wins the last nine years? Chiefs. 103. The Pats had 103. Obviously, Brady responsible to a lot of them. Seattle, 94.

Green Bay, 92. Pittsburgh, 91. New Orleans, 90. Those are the only teams that have averaged 10 wins for the last nine years. KC, the Tyreek thing, I think threw people off. Kyle, turn the TikTok camera on.

Not the real camera. Turn the little TikTok camera on. TikTok camera. I think there's a lot of Curry 2022 Warriors parallels here. Talk about it. Where it's like,

in a way, this team makes more sense for Mahomes the same way that 22 Warriors, just building it around him and just all these guys who know how to play with him. I love Ty Rico for the Chiefs. I respected him. I feared him.

I thought he was one of the most incredible deep threats. He terrified teams. He tilted the field. He won games. He won games. He won games. The Chargers Thursday night game, he won that game. I'm also a results guy.

You know, he played three playoff games last year, 285 yards, three touchdowns. He, in the regular season, 1,239 yards, nine touchdowns.

You can replace 80 to 90% of those stats. I, if I'm the Chiefs, I would much rather have the money on the offensive line and protect Mahomes and give him time and I can find receivers. We're in the receiver boom of all time right now. Can find receivers and running backs all over the place. And I think that's, I just like how they tilted the structure, how now they're going to run the ball more, which is going to make it a little easier for Mahomes to find seams downfield versus the way it was before. And I'm in. I think this is the best team. The communication lines in

that building are wide open. So anyone can walk into anyone's office and it's a very open place. And I will tell you that Patrick Mahomes was not shocked when they traded Tyreek Hill. Patrick Mahomes was not finding it out from a tweet. Patrick Mahomes was not finding it out from a tweet. Patrick Mahomes was not finding it out from a bottom line ticker. So I assume there were conversations had and like, Hey, here's our plan. Just so you know, this is what we're doing. And I'm sure Mahomes was like, gosh, that sucks. Like my guy. Yeah. But we'll be fine. We'll be okay. Like we'll figure it out. And they may regret trading him, but to get all those first round picks to add, I mean, you got to, we talked about Nick Bolton, this Carl Laftis, this rookie who is, you know, he was playing water polo in Greece less than a decade ago. He's a first round pick out of Purdue. He's been amazing, this training camp. He's a rookie. Well, that's another thing for the case with them.

Like you have that one good draft heading into the next season on top of the talent. It seems like they crushed a draft. They crushed a draft every year. And Brett Veach runs one of the best front offices. And it's like you add Carl Laftis, you add McDuffie, the corner that they got out of Washington. They've got players. Pacheco is going to play a role. Sky Moore is going to play a role. And my whole point is this is not one of those deals where Mahomes is going to feel like his hand is tied behind his back. They love Tyreek. And to a man, everyone in that building wishes nothing but the best for him. But he wanted $30 million. They weren't going to be paying him that. And he turns 30 soon. They weren't going to...

And you could argue they're cutting their losses at the absolute perfect time. Is Tyreek Hill going to be better this year? I don't know. I would imagine it's a long shot to say he's going to put up better numbers and be a better player with the Miami Dolphins than he was with the Chiefs. Okay. We're aligned. They're 10-1 to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel. They are plus 650 to be the number one seed in the AFC,

which I thought was a fun bet. And they are plus 155 to win the division, which I think the odds have maybe dropped. Maybe that's like plus 150 now. But to me, it's them or the Chargers. And we might as well do the Chargers now. Everyone's in on the Chargers. Everyone's in.

Does that scare you? Yes. Is your hand shaking as you plant the flag? What do you do? What do you do with the Chargers? Colin Coward, I was watching his show. He has the Chargers as the third team out of 32 in the NFL. Chargers have made the playoffs once in the last nine years.

Justin Herbert, for all his wonder and his greatness, has not been to the playoffs yet. This is year three. They added players on defense. They have a very good team, but I'm going to wait and see. I'm not putting all my chips on the charters and I'm not saying I don't believe in Staley or I'm not saying that I don't think that they can get it done in a big spot because Herbert hasn't done it before. Herbert can do it. He will do it. Herbert was amazing in that week 18 game against the Raiders. He threw 17 times in the final drive and got them to overtime. Herbert, not a problem. But that's a funky thing, man. And to suddenly

crown the Chargers before they can even get over the hump, just based on Khalil Mack and JC Jackson, a couple acquisitions, I'm not going there yet. I haven't seen it in the big spots yet. And they lose too many games in too many weird ways for me to suddenly say the bad juju's gone. And the coaching thing last year was a real issue for them. First of all, Staley's a defensive coach and defensively, they were getting torched for most of the season. Not a great sign. But then the end of the game stuff, the fourth and short stuff was alarming. I actually think that team probably cost themselves more success than any other team last year other than maybe minnesota well we celebrated that stuff early like they beat kc in kc and we were like holy shit i love this

then they then they play the chargers on a thursday night game play the chiefs on a thursday night game late in the season i remember we were on million dollar picks all in on the chiefs for big and the chargers kept going for it on fourth. And we're converting. And we're like, we're alive. And then Mahomes will take care of it from there. I spoke to Brandon a bit this offseason. He knows. He's a defensive coach. And what happened last year on defense was unacceptable.

And that's part of the reason they not only got J.C. Jackson, who's excellent, and Khalil Mack, who's finally healthy, but also this Sebastian Joseph Day, the big man inside from the Rams, who, not a huge name, played next to Aaron Donald, but is a really good player. They believe that they've addressed it on paper, but I got to see it. I did a part of my over-preparation for this year

was I tried to come up with a scoring system for who had the most talented rosters, which I'll reveal in a later podcast. Yes. The Chargers were shockingly high. If you're just talking about good to great players, if you're only

marking down those guys, they're in the mix for most talented roster. Just in terms of being top-heavy, a little similar to the Rams last year. Corey Lindsley is the best center in football. Rashawn Slater was really good at tackling. Positions you wouldn't even think.

They're loaded there too. Asante Samuels kid. Awesome. They had two offensive linemen on my list. They had a couple secondary guys. The Mack thing, I mean, he just, by all accounts, the last couple of years wasn't there.

I think it was a good flyer, but I do worry that people are penciling them in. All right. My plant the flag for them is too much hype and it makes me nervous. I'm with you on that. I think they could easily go to the playoffs and get over the hump and we'll be like,

all right, obviously look at their roster and they've got a good man as the head coach, but that's a loaded division. And I don't see a ton of experience in that room that's like, hey, follow me. I'll take us over the hump. I've won those big games. And quite frankly, I'm rooting for them. I think that fan base deserves it. And I like all those players. They're like Eckler's awesome guy and Keenan Allen's cool as shit. And Herbert is as great as it gets, but like, I got to see it first. A little bit easier schedule than Casey,

but whatever. Uh, next one, next plant, the flag going, uh, back to the NFC. I'll make my,

my case quick. Kyler and Cliff. I'm out. I've taken my flag and I put it in the garage. I'm out. I don't think they're going to be good. The Hopkins not playing the first six games thing I think is alarming.

Everything about the contract, the offseason, the way they lost in the playoffs last year. And I think it's just going to go badly this season for them. And I'm completely out. I do not have them. I was trying to figure out every year, obviously there's five, six, seven teams from the previous playoffs that don't make it right. It's always between five and eight. I went back the last couple of years. So last year,

seven teams were new. And the year before, seven teams were new, just since they did these seven teams. So you really have to look hard. What five to seven teams are you just going to push out? Arizona to me and the Pats were two of the no-brainers. I just don't think they get back. And if anything, I think you could even move the other direction and wonder, should Cliff be considered a long shot for the first coach fired bet? It's got an extension.

I know. But I'm just saying, how bad could this go? I think actually Cliff, how bad could this go? I think actually Cliff, you know, throughout the whole Kyler thing with the independent study, he never buried his quarterback and Kyler to a man's like, Cliff's not the issue. You know, that's that, that it won't be a Cliff and Kyler thing between the two of them. It'll be whether the whole thing just blows up in their face because it just wasn't meant to be. But like, I'll say this, and here's some of the lines

that you're getting out of Cardinals camp. Like, who? We're getting lines out of Cardinals camp? Something you hear out of the media. Is it, please don't look this way? The media availability, but like, Zach Ertz didn't have to come back. Like, J.J. Watt didn't have to come back.

These guys, a lot of the veteran, Rodney Hutchins could have retired. What are they going to get? Seven games out of J.J. Watt? Come on. Well, we'll see. That team's going to stink. A first rounder for Hollywood Brown? I'm out. I think Hollywood's going to get seven games out of J.J. Watt? Come on. Well, we'll see. That team's going to stink. A first-rounder for Hollywood Brown?

I'm out. I think Hollywood's going to be good. I do. Are you planting your flag on the cards? It feels like there's... How about this? I'll plant my flag on the cards. Don't do the arguably, questionably, maybe.

I'm not. You got to go one way or the other. I don't think this is a combusted season. I think they can get back to the playoffs. In fact, I'll say it. The Cardinals are going back to the playoffs. Wow. Plant the flag, baby. So you have three NFC West playoff teams. Yes. Okay. Completely disagree. Vegas. Are you in or out? Talk about top heavy rosters. Holy mackerel. I mean, their offensive line is... Thank God the Bears are in the league for them.

Their offensive line is either second or third worst. Couple great receivers. Great receivers. And tight end. One or two difference makers defensively, but overall, I'm not doing backflips about the defense. I think Chandler Jones and Crosby are a good combo. Yeah, there's two.

They get to the quarterback. You got two? Yeah. The defensive backfield's better than it was. Okay. I'm out. Somebody's got to lose in that division. I think that's the safest bet.

And also the fact that they, last year, made the playoffs, and I need teams that aren't going to make the playoffs after making it last year and I think that's one of my logical picks. So I'm out. I'm planting the flag on no playoffs for Vegas.

My only thing would be this. What Carr did last year with literally a special teams coach as an interim coach and scotch tape and that was something special. Now you add Josh McDaniels and you add Patrick Graham and you add all these new England guys, Mike Lombardi's

kid, Mick Lombardi is working the offense for the Raiders, which I love. Um, they brought also Daron Harmon, Jacob Johnson, Brandon Bolden. There's this like, all right, Patriot Southwest feel, which McDaniels has gone above and beyond to say, no, this isn't that this isn't that. But like, there is this feeling of, all right, you take Derek Carr, who's been kind of out there in the, in the hinterlands and you put them around a bunch of winning coaches and a bunch of winning players. Like, and then you add in Devante Adams.

It's a pretty darn good mix. I believe four teams in the AFC West will make the playoffs. I think that they will make the playoffs as well. I'm going all four teams from the AFC West. Wow, I'm out. Again, we disagree. Here's the problem with the Raiders. They really whiffed on the last few drafts, not counting this year's draft. But they hit on Max Crosby. I guess you could say they hit on Jacobs. He's been okay. It's a running back. I don't know. Yeah. It's a first round running back. I mean, that's always tough. But for the most part,

just a catastrophic first, second round, third for who ended up on the team now. And it's like, I learned this with the Patriots when Belichick whiffed on a couple of drafts in a row and you're like, oh, we only took four guys in 2016 and none of them are making a difference four years later. That's when it adds up, that third and fourth year after the draft. And I just don't think their drafts were good enough. So top heavy, but I don't see the depth.

They had Cleland Farrell, who was a fourth overall pick on special teams on plays last year. That's what you want. Leatherwood. Leatherwood, We'll see. They drafted dudes who never even played it down for them. What was that running back that they traded

to Lin Bowden? They traded to Miami right before the first season. Kentucky, Lin Bowden. Then obviously Henry Ruggs. He's never playing again. That was another one. He's a first-round pick. He's 12th overall pick. They took him over CeeDee Lamb. That's a tough one. They got this kid, Zamir White, who's a running back out of Georgia, who's going to play a big

role. I think he's very good. And I think Devante Adams, and I go back to when the Giants traded away Odell Beckham, and I was on TV being like, well, the Browns just got Odell and they've got this. And an NFL GM who I respect called me and was like, find me one example of a team that made a big trade for a wide receiver and it made any difference at the end of the season. And I'm like, well, and I can't think of one. I really can't. So the Adams thing to me is a lot of that is him and Carling, but he's so damn good. He's so damn good.

Well, that's going to be put to the test this year with him and Tyreek. Two of the highest profile trades at the same time. Here's our example. With the money. I like the Raiders. I don't love the Raiders. I think McDaniels is a really good offensive coach. What Carr did with Gruden, who was maybe operating

from a different playbook than what McDaniels is coming in with. I think Carr's mentally capable of taking that Patriots offense and making it even better with what he's got out there. Kyle and I were ready to drive Josh McDaniels to the airport by the end.

I know. I remember. The second and three fullback dives. And, yeah, I was good. Thanks for everything, Josh.

I had a great time. Loved it. Really appreciate it. It was time to go. Plant your flag on the worst team in the league. Uh, what do you got for me? I got, I got the Houston Texans. Interesting. Okay. Make the case. Just don't have, I just still don't think they've got all these draft picks. They're going to be good in the future. They're going to build. I just don't know if they have enough talent on that roster. And maybe this is a freezing cold take. And when they make the playoffs, I'll be the one having to defend this. But I just,

Davis Mills, the third round quarterback who is very good last year. Is he ever going to develop into Trevor Lawrence or any of these guys like Mahomes or Allen? I don't know the ceiling on that. And then you go position by position. It's really rough. They have one of the four worst rosters in the league. There's no way to fight it. I like Lovey Smith, but... Yeah, it's tough. I don't know. It's a tough conference. They might have struck oil with the rookie running back though, Pierce. Oh, I like Pierce. He's good. Yeah. I like that he just won the job after week one.

They didn't play him. Week two, did not play. I have a... So, on FanDuel, the Texans are plus 350. They're the favorites for worst record. Are they? Okay. I didn't look at that. I understand it. Atlanta was second, 4-1.

Seattle plus 750. I think there's some Seattle kind of sneaky... I think Seattle might be better. Could be 9-8. Yeah, they might be okay. Hey, I think Seattle might be better. Yeah, there's a sneaky... Could they grab the seventh playoff seed?

Oh my God, I can't believe it. Jacksonville's 9-1. Jets 9-1. Carolina 9-1. Some sneaky Carolina case there as well. Carolina's going to be better than that. They'll be a lot better than they were last year. The Bears, who started out at 10-1,

have been bet down to plus 750, and I can't believe they're not one of the two favorites. The Bears are fucking abysmal. They are hopeless. What they're doing to Fields... Kyle, turn the camera on! What they're doing to Fields is an absolute travesty. Jason Goff has been ripping them the shreds

on our full go-pod. Worst offensive line in the league. Quarterback on his second offensive system regime, that whole thing. The talent's just nowhere to be seen, just anywhere. They have the worst skill position guys. It's either them or Houston

for worst skill position guys in the league. And if Pierce is good, it actually might be Chicago with the worst skill position guys. I don't see it at all. I don't see how they get to three wins. So plus 750, that's like,

there's actual value on that. So that's my point. Yeah. I don't have any great feeling for confidence in the Bears. I just think that they've got enough talent where they'll win some games, but you're right. I could see them at the bottom of that. But look, the Lions have been fun on hard knocks and they've got a lot of fight in them and they covered 11 times last year. And we saw about 20 games that we were involved in where they either won or lost by a point at the end. But if you're taking Lions versus Bears, is it a slam dunk that the Lions are losing to the Bears? I don't know if that's the case. Here's your big game. My birthday, September 25th. Let's go. Houston at Chicago, week three.

Whoever loses that game, I think is in the worst record driver's Chicago. Week three. Whoever loses that game, I think, is in the worst record driver's seat. So technically, you could bet Chicago plus 750. And if you think Houston's the other team, just bet Houston and the points in that game. And you're covered both ways. And you could have some fun with that. Who did you and House have? Lions last year? And it was the second worst team? It was the right pick. It came down to that Jared Goff, Minnesota, just a complete disaster all over the place. Crazy.

The other team that I just don't know what we're getting, and I think there's a lot of optimism in my market for them. I don't know what we're getting from the Giants this year. This could be like there's a lot of holdovers from an old regime. They have zero dollars, and they're very injured. It's tough. I was in, but now I's tough. I was in, but now I'm out.

I was in as like sleeper potential, but I just don't think they have enough talent. I just don't see quarterback being tough. New coach who doesn't have anything,

you know, he inherited all this. So like, they still have Jones, they still have Saquon. Like, from what I hear, and again,

fantasy football, do what you want. Like, Saquon is going to be a beast this year and that's great. But I've heard that for a lot of years, but the returns do you want. Saquon is going to be a beast this year and that's great. But I've heard that for a lot of years.

But the returns do sound good from Saquon this summer. A couple more quickies and then we're going to go. Can you win a Super Bowl with Lamar this year, yes or no, playing your flag? I'm playing my flag, I know, because I think their receivers are... They're not the worst receivers in the league, but probably top five worst.

And I just don't think they have the weapons for him this year. I think the rest of the team's really good. I actually have them in the league, but probably top five worst. And I just don't think they have the weapons for him this year. I think the rest of the team's really good. I actually have them in the playoffs, but at some point you're going to need to score points. And I just don't think they have enough weapons. I don't know if you need wide receivers with that offense and it might be for, uh, you know, fool's gold with what they do, but like they'll throw out Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely the rookie tight end. They'll put them out there. They'll put two running backs back there and they'll run with Ricard as the blocker. And they'll say, okay, we don't need to scale. Marquise Brown is a good receiver. He really is the first round pick. And everyone thought he was the first round pick. They didn't know how to use him because that's

not their offense. So everyone's concerned about the receivers, including you. And that's fair because at some point Lamar's going to have to make a big play, but Andrews is really good. And they've got guys out of the backfield who make big plays and that's not their offense. It's a Greg Roman, run the ball and get a lead and let's protect the lead. And let's let Lamar do his thing. I'm not as concerned about the receiver thing. And I think Rashad Bateman could be pretty good. He's a first round pick. Like that's the hope. Well, he better be pretty good. He's the best receiver on the team. I know. Yeah, it's tough.

They're 20-1 on FanDuel, and Cincinnati's 22-1, and that makes no sense to me. Yeah, I don't see... I think Cincinnati is a much safer bet to be a successful possible Super Bowl contender. I also, I'd like to see how this contract thing handles itself before week one. It's very peculiar, and I've been around all this stuff for years.

This one might be one of the weirdest in that, as we've noted everywhere, Lamar is representing himself. He wants guaranteed money. And the Deshaun Watson deal set Lamar's like how the hell are they going to let them pay him all of that guaranteed? And I don't get that with my MVP and my playoffs every year. Like, and Bashadi came out at the owners meetings and was like, gosh, like we did not expect that from Cleveland. And I think there's a lot of teams around the league saying Cleveland, what the hell do you do?

Yeah. You screwed it up for everyone. And I don't know what, what, what plays out before the season. And if it's still hanging over as we start the year, I don't know what plays out before the season. And if it's still hanging over as we start the year, I don't know if that's a great thing or if that motivates Lamar. I don't know how he's wired in that kind of way, but it could have... Joe Flacco said, I'll run the season

out and let him to a Super Bowl title. Maybe that's Lamar too. I'm not saying I'm planting my flag against him. Twitter doesn't work that way. I just feel like when you have, and he responds on Twitter. He's not one of these guys. Like, um, I'm a huge Lamar fan and I think he deserves everything he wants to have, you know,

come to him. But I don't know if this team with all that youth on defense is super bold this year. Cause there's a big injury luck argument with them that they had the worst injury luck last year. That turns around all that stuff. I get it. Quickly, Tua, in or out? Where are you planting your flag? As you know,

I'm out. I'm out. Warren Sharpe's all the way in. Warren Sharpe's like, this is great. Look at his deep ball. I'm out. There's a large... I'm not saying Warren Sharpe is playing to Twitter at all or playing to Dolphins fans. I will say there is a there's a large that i'm not saying warren sharp is playing to twitter at all or playing to dolphins fans i will say there is a large fan base of people who are looking and seeking for two defenders and they will champion you like if you go on good morning football and

you say like i'm actually in on tua you're gonna get a lot of love from people online like there is a strong to a nation out there i need to see it first. I don't know. He's coming off injuries, coming out of college. I'm like, all right, let's give him a couple of years. It's hard for me to plant my flag on Tua having not seen any evidence of it over the first couple of seasons where I'm like, yes, he's damn good. He belongs in the same conversation as those top guys. Multiple injuries. Doesn't seem like he can really move around that much. And from what we saw from them last year, they seem terrified to have him throw anything more than these short, quick stuff.

And now they have built this team of racehorses around him. I'll say this. I'm just really dubious. If I had to bet one way or the other, I'm going to bet that it will not work out. Now, if it did and he was awesome this year, great, we get one more good quarterback. But I just, I don't see it.

I think they're going to be very competitive. And I think McDaniel, now here's my spiel on McDaniel. It's like he was with Matt Schaub in Houston when he had his best years of his career. He was with Robert Griffin when he had his best years, with Cousins when he was coming out with Washington. Then he was with Matt Ryan in Atlanta. And then he was with Jimmy when he was in San Francisco. So this guy is a quarterback coach.

He's the guy in their ear. And alongside Kyle Shanahan, it's gotten the best out of these players. Tua will get the maximum out of his own abilities learning from McDaniel. The greatest version of Tua we will see with this guy in his ear and coaching him. The question is, what is the maximum for two?

I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. Last one. Which one of these bays are not going to make the playoffs? Because I think one of these three and possibly two, but definitely one will not make the playoff. You can get green Bay,

Tampa Bay, or San Francisco that plays in the Bay. One of those three are going to miss the playoffs. Where would you plant your flag? I'm going to say they're all making it. And I know that's not fair. I'm going to say they're all making it, but I just think the divisions,

NFC South, if anything, the Saints might challenge Tampa. And then I think NFC North is a down year again. I don't see the Vikings knocking off the Packers just yet. So I know this is the easy way out. I'm creeping toward Minnesota. I know. It's just the first year. I don't see the Vikings knocking off the Packers just yet. I know this is the easy way out. I'm creeping toward Minnesota. I know. It's just the first year.

First year coach, first year GM. Well, last year's coach was in a coma, so I think they're going to be better off. Does he have a pulse and can he stand for four straight quarters? That's going to be a win. They went from 3-1. They were basically plus 3-10 to win the North, and now it's plus 2-40 on Fandle, and Packers are minus 3-1. They were basically plus 3-10 to win the North.

And now it's plus 2-40. And the Packers are minus 155. So there's been legitimate Minnesota action. By the way, Jefferson. Oh, they're awesome. Recovered Adam Thielen. The Cook-Madison combo. Irv Smith Jr.'s back.

Cousins has put up at least stats every year. There's a legitimate case. They have good players on both sides of the ball. I would say it's an above-average roster. Look, they're a very, very, very sexy Super Bowl pick because the NFC is so down this year and the NFC is so wide open. And you do with the math and you're like, great home field advantage,

new coach, new fresh optimism, great defense when healthy, got the receivers. I get it. And they might. I went from being down on the packers at the start of camp to now maybe leaning towards packers out of the nfc just from what i'm hearing not about dubs and not about uh justin watson but about the way the offense has operated and it's it's not going to be what it was obviously davante adams leaves but hearing great things about you know how they're using aaron jones remember they paid aaron jones

a lot of money. Well, they're pushing the Jones-Dillon combo. Jones and Dillon. Oh, it's going to be defense, running game, and a smart QB. I get it. I know. Their receivers are bottom 10, at least.

Minnesota is minus 110 to make the playoffs. I don't know. The Cousins thing, we talked about it on my Tuesday pod a little. I just, the Cousins versus Dak, other than the fact that people just default toward not liking Kirk Cousins, they just don't like him.

Yeah. The stats are the same. The performance is the same. The problem is we've all bet on him and he's all, and he's just kicked us in the nuts. All of us. It's tough.

It's hard to shake. Let me give you a team before we wrap in the NFC that I cannot put my finger on. I don't know what to do with the New Orleans Saints this year.

Yeah. Well, that's on the Ringer Gambling Show. That was their big bet. It was like the over-unders eight and a half, bet the over. Look at them,

the NFC South, that's around three to one. You're betting on Tampa with the offensive line falling apart. Brady's 45. Godwin, who knows when he comes back. There's just not the same kind of weapons offensively for them.

A little bit old. They kind of stacked the team for the last two years. So there's cases. New coach. But it's Winston and Andy Dalton. I know. I just can't get around it. Such a good

defense. Some weirdness. Alave, very good rookie. Michael Thomas is going to be back. We don't know about Kamara. That's the weirdness, right? Kamara and Michael Thomas. How do we know Michael Thomas? I know. Everyone's penciling him in. It's like, what happened to him last year? He didn't play.

Where was he? Well, he had an injury and he didn't get it taken care of in the offseason and he shows up week one and he's like, I'm still injured. Sean Payton's like, all right, you're still injured. Can't play. It was a disaster. He hasn't played in two years. Well, don't forget the other

piece of this and people gloss over this. It's like turned into into a yeah but the sean payton to dennis allen and it's like well dennis allen he was there he was you know he was their defensive coach sean is like and i'm working with him on fox and we had a weekend together recently like this guy he how do you want to put it different is it one of the four best coaches in the league all right what do you think what was dennis One of the four best coaches in the league. All right. What do you think? What was Dennis Allen's lifetime record

as a head coach? Oh, probably sub 400. Eight and 28. Damn. 22%. Damn. 22% winning percentage.

And people are like, well, Dennis Allen, you know, he's been there. It's like, Dennis Allen was fucking awful. We were delighted to bet against him

every week. But his defense has been really good with this team. They're going to be the lead dogs. It's not going to be led by the offense. He was a horrible coach. Forget the head coach. Peyton was like a salty mother you know what. He lived and

breathed at New Orleans. Just being with him at this Fox thing, Sean Peyton walks in a room and starts talking. You've got NFL legends left and right. And you know, it's Charles Woodson and it's Michael Vick and you've got, you know, Mark Schlereth and like Sean Payton starts talking and all heads turn to hear his stories. Like that's a huge personality and a huge identity. Removing that from the room to your point is Pete Carmichael and Dennis Allen going to be able to be like, all right, we're going to go beat Tampa because that's what we do. We mother F Tampa. And that's how Sean Payton operates. It's never the same after somebody like that leaves. It's just not.

It's not the same. All right, Schrager, good morning football. How's it going with the new host? Oh, it's great. Jamie Erdahl and Jason McCourty. They have been awesome. We're in our training camp right now, but every week we're getting better. And I think our show is pretty damn good. Are you allowed to tell the McCourty story about Mac from a year ago or no? Just that McCourty was rehabbing. I will tell it. I don't think he told it on air. I'll tell it right now. Really quickly for you Patriots fans who are down in the dumps and crying, here's a good story. Well, the Taekwon Thornton injury did not go great. It really hurt my feelings. But anyway, go ahead. We were talking MVP in June. I don't feel the same way now.

McCourty was rehabbing and Jason wasn't with the Patriots anymore, but he was rehabbing last off season up at somewhere in New England. And Mac Jones was there also. And every single day Mac Jones was there and McC And every single day Mack Jones was there and McCourty going down to play for the dolphins last year, came out of it long before they even started training camp. It was like, that guy's beaten Cam Newton out for the job. That guy's a dog. That guy's got it, all this stuff. And like the Miami guys were like, really like Mack Jones? Like then he's like, Oh no, this guy's a different deal. Like this guy is. And, and, and sure enough, he had him as the number one seed 12 weeks into the season. I mean, there's a lot to like about Mack Jones. I just don't know if the rest of the guy is, and, and, and sure enough, he had him as the number one seed 12 weeks into the season.

I mean, there's a lot to like about Mac Jones. I just don't know if the rest of the situation is, is good right now in new England. Kyle, did that story make you feel better or worse? You know, I'm, I'm fine. I'm just going to keep pretending that none of this is happening. I just going to keep replaying that clip that I keep replying to on Twitter, where Peter said on a good morning football Football that we're the only people in sports media who care about Mac Jones.

So that's where I'm at. Where's that flag? Can I hide under it? Alright, Peter Schrager, good to see you. We'll see you when the season starts. You're the man. Can't wait for the Masked Singer. You're going to be awesome. Thank you. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe. Because what you do, others will do too.

Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Not at all. Trains move quietly, so you won't hear them coming. You won't hear them coming. See, safe riding sets an example.

Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really? Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinks.

What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. All right. Our old friend Chris Mannix is here from Sports Illustrated, The Zone, whole bunch of places. OKC, every time I think the NBA is dead, at least until mid-September,

something new happens. Chet Holmgren out for the year, gets hurt playing in Seattle, which I thought was one of the spookiest, weirdest pieces of NBA content in a while. Seattle's so excited to get the NBA back. OKC took their team. Czechos, he's playing in a stupid pro-am game. Doesn't seem like the floor was responsible for the injury, but he's trying to block a LeBron shot. All of a sudden, he's out. He's out for the year with this Lips Frank injury, which I always thought was like four to six months.

So Conspiracy Bill's looking at this and wondering, did OKC look at this and think, if this guy's out until like February, let's just scrap it. We'll get one more kind of tank here and bring him in as a full rookie. What was your read on how they handled this? Well, it did surprise me

that we saw out for the year when we're still in August. I thought they might leave it open-ended and say, we'll update whenever and people can interpret how they want, how long that foot injury usually lasts. And I don't think this team is capable of doing the kind of tanking that we're going to see San Antonio do. Houston might do it again. I mean, there's just too many teams out there able to bottom out before OKC could even get into that mix.

And if you remember, one of the reasons they were so bad last year was they shut guys down. They shut Shea down. They shut Lou Dort down. They didn't play their best lineup most nights in the second half of the season. Even without Chet, with Josh Giddey back and healthy with Shea and Dort and some of the guys, they're not a playoff team, but they're probably 10th or 11th in the Western Conference. That's going to make you 6th or 7th overall when it comes to drafting. I guess that's surprising. Knowing Sam Presti and knowing that organization,

I just think they're playing the long game with him. They'll say to Chet, look, this is the year we work on your body you know this is the year right and you know bill like in like january the pictures are going to start to surface of chet looking like you know schwarzenegger you know in the upper body like he's going to put on like 10 pounds of muscle in his upper body people be talking about him getting something out of this year i I do think if he winds up having a really rapid recovery, is it possible the door gets opened up again in February or March? Maybe, but the way I saw it was this is a team

that's going to just work on his body all year long that knows that missing a year is not a career killer. Ben Simmons did it. Blake Griffin did it. Joel Embiid did it. None of them are having any kind of long-term issues physically anyway as a result of it. I just think they'll use this as a redshirt year for Chet Holmgren and make him physically stronger going into year two. Well, you made the key point. This does kind of, it doesn't whip their

hat into the ring, but it's a soft toss into the Wambanyama sweepstakes. Because right now in the West, I'm looking at the standings. The only ones we know for sure don't care about this season are San Antonio and probably, probably Utah. Because Utah still has good players. They still have Mitchell. They still have all these weird veterans. And unless they start getting rid of some of those guys pretty soon, they traded Beverly last night to the Lakers, there's still a chance they could be confident. Or at least 30 and 52, 32 and 50 type stuff. San Antonio, we know, is tossing it in. Portland seems like they want to be good.

And then the only other one you would say is Houston, but Houston has some really good young talent at this point. And I think those guys are going to want to play and want to be whatever. And then you look on the west side. I mean, I'm sorry, on the east side, really, it's Indiana. We know they don't care. And we know they're probably going to do some sort of Turner-Heald separately or together trade. And then maybe Charlotte if Bridges doesn't come back and Hayward has another injury. I could see them being terrible. But other than that, we don't have a lot of tanking teams this year. No, you're right. And all you have to do if you're Oklahoma City is get inside that top three to give yourself the odds to do it. I know Shea just signed that contract, but how many years can you tell him just wait one more year?

How many times can you do it? I think this is the year they have to try to be as competitive as possible. With this group, I watched Giddy at Summer League and I know it's Summer League, but he looked great. He looks like he's going to take a step this year. Dort is an excellent defender.

Shea, I mean, offensively, he's really... I just don't see this team being as bad as three or four of the teams that materialize. I'm with you. Indiana's probably going to dump everybody, and San Antonio might win five games. I mean, that's a team that could be biblically bad this year. So I think Oklahoma City would really have to try

to get into that bottom tier. And I just don't think they have another year of trying in them. They've tried two years in a row to be really bad. I'm not sure how many times you can go to that well with the players you have on the roster.

Well, Philly did it how many years in a row there? Four? Yeah. Cost Hanky his job at some point. And even, look, it said Jerry Colangelo riding, riding herd to the rescue to go trade for Ish Smith to make it a more competitive team out there.

I just, like, I know that, not that Shea is bothered by what's been going on the last couple of years, but this might be the year that bothers him. I mean, Chet, as good as Chet might be, he wasn't going to be great this year. He was going to be a player that had some key moments, was part of the rotation.

I don't know that he would be a huge difference maker in his rookie season, not the way he's physically built. So if you're Oklahoma City, you've got to at least try early on to make a run at the play-in. And if it turns out in March you're way off, then maybe you shut guys down.

But early on, you've got to try to get in the mix. Or, I'm going to flip that on you, maybe this is the time right now for teams to start kicking the tires on Shea's availability. Because you think all this stuff being offered for Mitchell, allegedly, whatever, and then these teams, the Wizards, the Hornets, the Knicks, I don't know what to believe with

the actual offers, but there's clear, there's a pretty major Mitchell market. Cavaliers are supposedly in it. Shea's a pretty good backup plan for that. He's still young. I think from a talent standpoint, as much as I get Mitchell and he has more of a playoff record, but I just don't feel like Shea's that far behind him as an asset. I think they're pretty close. If I was doing my trade value listing, Shea's in the ballpark of Mitchell. And I do wonder, could a couple of those teams audible to him? They could. I hadn't even thought of that, of Shea being available. How many games will we have played for Oklahoma City since that trade? give them 25 to 28 minutes right away. There's some other teams, like we didn't mention, Orlando might be a possible,

they might just be a year away, but I think they have so much talent offensively, it's hard for me to believe they're going to stink. And then, you know, there's always one random team that we didn't expect, right? There's a team that goes south for either because of an injury

or the mix isn't right. I got to say, I think the Lakers, and every time I'm critical of the Lakers at all, people just assume it's because I can't stay in the Lakers, which is true. I can't stay in the Lakers. But the variable with them of if everybody's healthy, what are they? And we did this the other day on the pod. They're either a seven, eight, or a nine seed, best case scenario. But then you throw in the injury factor with Davis and the age injury factor with LeBron. The floor for them, I think, is lower than people realize, right? And to me, that's like kind of, and it's not like they can

tank. I don't think they have their pick, but that's like the one other team I would worry about from a being way worse than maybe people would think standpoint yeah they they are an ad injury away from being in that kind of play-in mix in the final third of the season where we're below the play-in yeah i mean like the 11 to 13 mix which is where you don't want to be like so so the second this beverly trade went down you know, my initial reaction is there's got to be a deal close for Westbrook. Like you can't put for, for basketball and personality reasons, you can't put Beverly and Westbrook together.

I mean, can you imagine, forget the fact that hate each other, but you put them on the floor together. Like you play the biggest, the greatest shell defense in the history of basketball. You're going back to like the, the fifties and sixties with the kind of defense you're history of basketball. You're going back to the 50s and 60s

with the kind of defense you're playing when those two are out there. The only option I can think of is Indiana and some combination of Heald and Miles Turner in exchange for Russ in the two first-round draft picks. And if you're LA, don't you have to do that right now? Not that Taylor Horton Tucker had any bright future anymore. He clearly took a step back last year. But you trade away Horton Tucker.

You take on Beverly. He's a win-now type of guy that you're bringing in. LeBron extends for a year. Beverly has a lot of playing experience. He's a proven playing veteran. At least he tries. At least he upgrades your defense. And that was a big problem for them he tries. He's a proven play-in veteran. At least he tries. At least he's, you know, he upgrades your defense. And that was a big problem for them.

Sure. It's 34. Yeah, but like, you gotta, but I just look at this team saying like, look, if you gotta give up your two firsts to get healed and Miles Turner, now you gotta do it. You just gotta do it.

Push all your chips in. And I'll be honest, like, I like healed a lot with this mix because what shooter has ever not thrived playing opposite LeBron James? They just all have over the course of his career. Miles Turner, not the physical banger that AD's used to playing with,

but he can play the five, and that's going to make AD happy, and he can space the floor a little bit. Neither one of these players are perfect, but they seem to make sense for how the Lakers are going to want to play this year. Suddenly, your shooting issues aren't quite so glaring. Suddenly year. Suddenly your shooting issues aren't quite so glaring. Suddenly Patrick Beverly's offensive issues aren't quite so glaring. I just looked at that trade and beyond like the obligatory Twitter jokes you have to

make about Bev and Russ playing together. It's just now you got to do it. Whatever it takes to get Buddy Heald and Miles Turner off of Indiana, even if it means both firsts at the end of this decade, to me, you got to do it. Counter. Why does Indiana have to do it? Because I think the Laker fans are trying to will this trade to happen, right? If Westbrook, who even within the last year of his contract is still $47 million. And the last 12 years of NBA history tells us if you're trying to dump a contract of that magnitude, you either have to buy it out like you used to do with John Wall, or you have to give somebody picks just to take the contract off your hands. Miles Turner's worth the first round pick on his own. He's making, I think, 18 million bucks. If they took him into December, they could shop him around and they would get a first round pick for him. Same thing for Buddy Heald. He's at like 20

million bucks, something like that, 23. If they were just trying to shop him for an expiring and a first, they could do that now. They could do that in December. So the part I don't get, unless you love those Laker picks, unless you're saying, I just think this franchise, this organization under this owner is completely incompetent. LeBron gave them a life raft when he just wanted to live in LA and sign with them. But other than that, you look at from like 2013 on and this franchise over and over again, he's just made the wrong choice. Even the Davis trade, the amount of assets they gave up for him, probably didn't have to give up that much. Everything else they've done is just completely haphazard. We want to buy in on those picks in 27, 29. If I was Indiana, I just wouldn't want Westbrook. I would pursue, I would either split those assets up. I wouldn't be crazy about

trading Heald because for what you said, I think shooting is more valuable than ever for all the obvious reasons, but he's pretty pretty relatively cheap movable contract. He's produced. And I just wouldn't be fired up to take Westbrook off the Lakers' hands. I would even want more than that. I would want two unprotected, maybe something else. But what you said, I think, was the important point.

Clearly, something's going on at the Lakers because LeBron extends, right? And then it does take a rocket scientist to put two and two together with like, he extends. Quickly, they trade for Patrick Beverly, who's a win now guy. And now Westbrook's the next piece. And if you're trying to drive Westbrook out or get him to eat, worst case scenario, take a buyout, bring in the guy that he's feuded with the most for the last 10 years. That's a start.

I just don't think they can buy him out because he's the last trade asset they have. They can't buy him out. What are you going to do? No, you can't buy him out. If you're Indiana, you do. You just waive him if that's what it comes to. Yeah, like what Houston did with John Wall.

Yeah, if you get what you want in the Westbrook trade, whether it's the two first plus swap rights or something else, I don't know, whatever asset you can extract from them, once you get that, you just cut Westbrook. And then we start a different conversation about

who the hell would actually sign him on a new deal. The motivation for Indiana, to me, it's pretty simple. You're never, ever, ever, ever, ever going to get a player the caliber of Victor Wembayama to Indiana. You're never going to do it. It's bottoming out.

So you just have to bottom out. You have to make this trade as fast as possible before the season starts. Yeah. You have Halliburton on a rookie deal. You can sign him down the line. You already moved off Brogdon, which was a competitive piece for a bunch of spare parts.

You're just all in. You're whatever the... Well, how about the Halliburton thing they said about we think he's our Reggie Miller?, how about the Halliburton thing they said about, we think he's our Reggie Miller. Great. That was... I like Halliburton. I think I'm probably in the,

at least the front row or maybe the closest backseat in the Halliburton bandwagon. But Reggie Miller, I was like, Jesus. Let me ask you this. 20 years of Reggie Miller. The Halliburton love intrigues me.

I mean, look, I think there's a lot of people, and I'm not saying you, but a lot of people that loved Hallib not saying you, but a lot of people that loved Halliburton that watched like three Sacramento Kings games over the years

and were like, oh my God, this guy's great and just crushed the Kings front office for doing the deal that brought back Sabonis. I kind of like Fox and Sabonis, not to talk about the Kings here,

but to me, the Kings are a sneaky get in that play-in mix, maybe even the last playoff spot team this year, Fox and Sabonis stay healthy during the day. I mean, Halliburton's fine,

but I'm not ready to anoint him as any kind of even a consistent all-star. I'm not ready to go there yet. I thought it was a very fair trade. I think the frustrating thing, if I'm a Kings fan, is I just think Halliburton had slightly more value than Sabonis. So to put in Hal Burton with Heald for Sabonis, to me, that trade seemed a little lopsided, but I'm with you. Fox got unleashed by that trade.

He was a different guy and they were actually kind of fun to watch down the stretch. And that's a team when people talk about the Lakers, they have to be, they're definitely a playoff team. And the counter is like, are we sure? Like LeBron's missed 20 plus games last three seasons. Davis is not exactly the picture of health. He's not Carl Malone. And Sacramento is going to be better.

There's a couple of teams that are just unequivocally going to be better. On the Indiana thing, if that trade did happen, you asked what happens to Westbrook. I think he's out of the league. I don't say that. I'm not saying that in the Skip Bayless way. I just think he's the rare kind of guy where if you're a tanking team or a lottery team, why would you bring him in? All he's going to do is try to play 40 minutes a game

and put up stats and make you more competitive. If you're a playoff team, I can't think of a playoff team that he would be additive to. He's not going to want to come off the bench. He doesn't play defense. He's not really a good shooter. And it's over and over again, we've seen the best possible scenario for him are like these seven, eight, 9 seeds where he plays 40 minutes a game. None of those teams are going to want him. So I do think there's, like if that Indianapolis trade happens

and he gets bought out, that might be it for him. Yeah, and if you recall the statement that Thad Fouché, his former agent, put out there, like he was all but saying, like you can't, you got to find a way to make it work in LA because he knows what the rest of the league knows, that it's a hard sell to bring in Russell Westbrook to your team.

When you think about Westbrook's post this contract future, you start to think about who are his allies out there? Where are the landing spots? Like Charlotte at one point, you could say maybe because of Jordan, the Jordan brand, all that connected to Westbrook, but they're not looking for someone to take the ball out of LaMelo Ball's hands. Like they want like the Ishmith types, the Isaiah Thomas types who will come off the bench and be happy with 10 to 15 minute stints, you know, every other game that you're giving them. The Knicks, that ship has sailed with Jalen Brunson. You're not putting him on that team.

And after that, I mean, I've thought about this question for months now, and I can't think of one that makes any sense. I mean, to your point, if you are a tanking team, Westbrook is still kind of capable of winning you five more games if you put him into the lineup, because if you give him the ball, he'll be high volume produced and he'll sneak out three or four wins. And why would you want to do that? Like, what is the upside for you long-term to adding him to the mix? He just hasn't made that role player turn. And without the benefit of maybe doing it this year with the Lakers, which I don't think he was going to do, but at least open the door for that. It doesn't, he doesn't bring a lot of value to any type of team.

So the parallel, it's weird, is probably Iverson in the late 2000s. When Iverson hit that point of his career where he wasn't like Iverson anymore, but was probably still an asset if he was willing to accept, I have to basically change in my head who I am. And he just couldn't do it.

And he had a really unhappy time in Detroit, an unhappy time in Memphis. I think he played six games with Philly and he was out of the league. There were other reasons for that. Obviously, he didn't take care of himself off the court. But I do think that sometimes guys can only be one thing. And even Wade, you saw Wade near the end. He really struggled how to move into a different phase of his career.

And then in that one last Miami season, he kind of finally figured it out. I don't see it with Westbrook. Let's take a quick break. I want to talk Celtics and then boxing with you quick. All right, coming back. So the KD thing's over and people out there are still saying the Celtics offered Jalen Brown,

Derek White in a first. Like that was the best offer. I think Sham said this on some radio station. In general, I think there was a feeling that that offer was extended by the Celtics. I'm not confident that they made any offer. And I didn't know what you heard. And I think sometimes when teams talk, you can kind of talk around each other a little bit and maybe you're talking names,

what would it take? And if somebody says, you know, we need this, it's like, whoa, that, you know, but do you think they actually made an offer for Kevin Durant? Because I do not. I don't know. So I poked around this a little bit and I don't know that there was, you know, an email

or a text message, which is how a lot of this happens when you do make formal offers between Sean Marks and Brad Stevens or Mike Zarin and Matt Ricciardi, who was over in Brooklyn at the time. I don't know that that over in Brooklyn at the time. I don't know that that actually happened at the same time. I don't know that it matters, right? If you're the Celtics and you are seriously engaging the Nets on a Kevin Durant deal, and you know and everyone knows that Jason Tatum is off the table, then you're talking about Jalen Brown. So it's kind of semantics. But that's my question. Did they seriously engage? Because I don't think they did. I think the deal that was proposed or was put out there as a Celtics offer, whether or not it was formally offered, if Brooklyn came back to Boston and said,

let's do this, to me, Boston would have done it. I think they would have made that deal to pair Durant and Tatum together over the long term. I don't think they were ever going to go Marcus Smart. I'm even skeptical they'd be willing to throw in a Grant Williams into the deal. I think they were just going to say, look, we're going to, and not to call Jalen Brown a lowball offer, but we're going to make a bare minimum type of offer that will be considered. And then we're going to sit on it forever. And again, I don't know that it matters if it was as specific as Shams has reported. But if you're talking Kevin Durant and you're not talking Tatum, you're talking Jalen Brown, and both sides very much know that. So in your favor for that argument would be Stevens finally gave an interview about it.

And he didn't 100% deny that Jalen was being bounced around. We also, I think there was a piece with the owner, with Wick, with the fact that they courted Durant six years ago and he didn't come. Then he went to Golden State. Who owns Golden State? Joe Lacob, Wick's former minority partner. Then there, I think, you know, there were real rumors that the Warriors were at least kind of lingering around this Durant thing.

They can deny it now, but I think Lacob was very intrigued by a reunion and the possibility of a dynasty. So the Celtics know that. I think a lot of this was just driven by the two owners. I don't think, if you go through the organization, like should we trade for Kevin Durant? I don't think the Celtics organization would have said yes for what the cost was. And I don't think the Warriors organization would have said yes either for what it would have cost for the fact that he's 34, some of his previous stops. The part that concerns me is that the Celtics didn't come out in a real way and say Jalen wasn't on the table because it just feels like we're leading toward him leaving two years from now because they can't extend his contract to a certain point. The meteorites deal is coming.

He's going to make way more three years from now. And it just feels like this is heading toward a two-year window with him. And I don't see any other way to look at it. I don't either. I think that's a legitimate concern within the Celtics about what Jalen Brown will do as an unrestricted free agent. Will he? I mean, there are two things to be concerned about. One is, does Jalen want a bigger role?

Like Jalen has been an excellent team guy the last couple of years. But I'm sure that Jalen believes that he can be Jason Tatum, or at least on some level, be close to what Tatum is doing. He started the season coming off the COVID couch and dropped 50 on the Knicks. He's got that ability. And the other part of it is you know the money and say i want full max over four or five years and i gotta believe and i don't know the landscape right now in 2024 but i gotta believe there'll be somebody out there willing to give a 26 27 year old jalen

brown a four-year max that's not a huge risk in today's NBA. It's just not. Yeah, but if we were his agents, we would tell him to try to roll it over to the summer of 2025 when the cap spikes. Yeah, I'm sure. Yeah. However they want to do it. The max that summer might be 65 million bucks a year. So he's making 25 now. We're rapidly approaching the day when... No, a million dollar a year players. We're getting there. Like in the next, what, five years or so,

there'll be million dollar a year players. 82 million per season guys. I'm just saying, like, I don't... Jalen's not taking a hometown discount to stay in Boston. That's for sure. And if he believes that he could thrive in a bigger role,

he might head another direction. I think that's a legitimate concern. That's partially what may have motivated the Celtics to engage the Nets on this Durant deal. I don't even think it's partial. I think there's a real fear that two years from now, either he'll want to do a one-year extension and try to time it for the meteorites thing, or he'll want to do a one-year extension and try to time it for the media

rights thing, or he'll just leave. But it's interesting that these teams get handicapped by making smart deals with players for under the backs. It's actually, in a weird way, short-term, it's great, but long-term, it really does. I think that's the biggest reason why the Spurs traded Murray. And there's probably going to be more guys down the road. And then on the flip side, you have a situation like Washington with Beal, where they're kind of stuck and they just have to give them $250 million, even though he's not a

$250 million player. So I'm sure they're going to hash all this out in the next cap thing. But I do think it's a real fear for the Celts. It is. And look, now we start talking about Boston and what they are. It's not the same thing, but I have

some kind of deja vu of 2018 where it was alright, here comes Kyrie Irving back. Here comes Gordon Hayward back. Remember, we put them on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Here they are. They're one of the teams to beat in the Eastern Conference. Remember, we put them on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Here they are.

They're one of the teams to beat in the Eastern Conference. Now, it's not quite the same because Irving and Hayward stepped back into a team that went to a conference finals. There was a real split in where guys were in their careers. But this is a team of a lot

of guys that want to play. I'm sure that when the season starts, everybody will be singing kumbaya. They'll be saying, look, Malcolm Brogdon will say, I'm happy being a role player behind Marcus Smart. Danilo Gallinari, sure, I'll be Al Horford insurance for 25 games during the season. But these are guys, all of them,

the incumbents and the incoming guys that are used to playing significant roles. And the juggling act that Emei Udoka is going to have to do is going to be really interesting to watch, especially as we get into December and January when all the good vibrations from September, October are gone. That to me is the most fascinating part of this team now with Durant off the table. They need to take care of the Grant Williams contract before the season starts, which I think I'm pretty optimistic they will. The big thing for me is Horford. And how realistic is it to get anything close to what he did last season again, to get a

100 game Al Horford season where he's playing for eight straight months and you're relying on him the way you did in those last couple of playoff rounds, especially against Milwaukee, who they're going to have to go through. He's a year older. He had a year off before last season. So now he's got all the miles from last season, all the miles from his career.

And that's the one thing, like big picture. I'm okay. Like the team they put together, Brogdon coming off the bench, I'm actually okay. I think he gets it. He's done it before, and I think he understands the opportunity. I think they're a guy short.

I don't trust Horford, and I don't trust the Time Lord being able to stay in the court. We just haven't seen it. Every year, something's happened. So that's what worries me. I'm just thinking Milwaukee. I'm thinking Milwaukee, whether it could be early May, it could be late May.

I don't know when we're going to see him, but we're going to see him, and we're going to see Giannis with a huge fucking chip on his shoulder. And do we have enough guys to play that team? I would disagree with that. Milwaukee would be at the top of my conference power rankings right now. I'm not as concerned about Horford as you are for a couple of reasons. One, I do think that year in

Oklahoma City, he learned some things about taking care of his body. He's changed some of his habits, physical workout habits that have helped him maintain where he is right now. I'd peg him at 60, 65 games during the year. I mean, he's going to get a lot of rest. I mean, that was the reason Gallinari was brought in. Like, just basically to drop him into the rotation as Horford Light and give Al even more time off.

What you're saying is a legitimate concern the Celtics have. I just think they're going to ease him throughout this regular season. Then you get to the playoffs, you start off three games off in between games. It's less concerning if you can get him to the playoffs at close to full strength. Now they know home court doesn't matter

since it didn't matter for them at all last year. Whatever, be it four seed, five seed, we've lost our home court. So you have Milwaukee at the top, right? Right now. I did too. I'm curious to see what James Harden looks like when he comes back.

I hate looking at social media clips, but he looks like he's working. He looks like he might have slimmed down a little bit. Like, you know, that's a dangerous team if Harden is close to what he was during that first year in Brooklyn than what he was all last season year in Brooklyn than what he was all last season.

Agree. All right, before we go, Anthony Joshua. So Raheem Palmer from The Ringer and I, we were talking about this. It was like, who is the most disappointing 21st century boxer for what the talent was? And Raheem said for him, it was Zab Judah. He's just always disappointed how that played out. Joshua, when you think about where he was five years ago, total package, really seemed like had a chance to have a special career. Now you look at him in 2022, loses twice to Usyk, comes back in the ring, has one of the weirdest

post-fight things we've seen in a while that did not look great for him long-term. In general, I bet on Usyk. I don't believe in Joshua. I just feel like it'd give me more chances to bet against this guy. Raheem and I were talking about it. Who is his

doppelganger? We were saying he's basically Dwight Howard. He's Dwight Howard for boxing, where everything's there, but something's missing. What's missing with him? Well, it's not what's missing as much as it's what left him back in 2017. People point to the Andy Ruiz fight as being the fight that changed Anthony Joshua. It happened before that. Vladimir Klitschko changed Anthony Joshua. That was his defining moment.

He won the World Heavyweight Championship. He dethroned the best heavyweight of the previous generation. That was a true changing of the guard moment at Wembley Stadium in front of 85,000, 90,000 people. But how that fight ended has haunted Anthony Joshua throughout. Vladimir got knocked out, but before then, he put Joshua down and he hurt Joshua. That fight was awesome. Joshua, as he has done in fights before then, including Dillian White, which was his statement win prior to that, he engaged. He got up, he engaged, he battled, and he scored a knockout. But he quite literally left that fight

and told people around him, I don't want to fight like that anymore. I'm not going to have a long career if I fight like that anymore. That's the day or the fight that took away the killer instinct that Anthony Joshua had. You look at the numbers, Bill, the sheer numbers. Before the call of the Usyk fight, I was looking at the raw numbers. He went from being like a 60-40 power puncher up to Klitschko to being like 65-35 jabs after that. He tried to become more boxer than brawler. And when he was given opportunities to engage, he didn't take them. I mean, look, you go back to the ninth round of the Usyk fight. There were a couple of times there I thought even as great as Joshua fought, he let Usyk off the

hook. If he had just swarmed him and thrown punches and let his hands go, I thought he could have found a way to at least put Usyk on the canvas and maybe staved off what happened in the 10th round of that fight. I just don't think he has that killer instinct that he had prior to Klitschko. Now, I don't really agree with him being disappointing because at the very least, the fucking guy's out there fighting people. I'm so sick of all these boxers out there declaring themselves Hall of Famers. I'm a two-division world champion. I'm a four-division world champion. I belong in the Hall of Fame. Anthony Joshua fights tough fight after tough fight every single time out. He had the option before fighting Usyk the first time of just dropping that belt. He would have had two

other belts. He wouldn't have to go in with a guy that just won two fights earlier, the undisputed Cruiserweight Championship, and knocked out his pal Tony Bellew. He could have dropped it. He could have passed on the rematch and taken an easier fight and still made a boatload of money fighting Tyson Fury. At least he's out there doing it. I mean, this goes down a rabbit hole, but today's boxers don't fight.

They don't take on the toughest competition. You can't say that about Anthony Joshua, who in my mind, still even with these losses, has the deepest resume of any heavyweight in boxing. That was, I didn't think that was possible. And Anthony Joshua would offense. That was incredible. The degree of difficulty was like a 9.8.

You pulled it off. And look, because I keep going back to like, I mean, Ali had five losses in his career. Anthony Joshua right now has three. I'm not comparing the two as far as fighters goes, but you're telling me that if he goes out there, which he's going to, and knocks out a couple stumble bums on the European circuit, he's not going to

be right back up there next summer in the conversation for a fight with Deontay Wilder in the conversation for a fight against Tyson Fury. He's 32 years old. I think the pathway back is still there for Anthony Joshua. The pathway is back for me to bet against him again, the way you just laid out.

A couple tomatoes, and then one more big fight. Wilder is a good example, though. What does Wilder have left at this point? He took a lot of hits. We're going to learn a lot. He's fighting Robert Heleneas in October. We're going to learn a lot. He's fighting Robert Heleneas in October. We're going to learn a lot about Wilder in that fight. Heleneas is

this close to washed. He's still credible because he knocked out Adam Kovnosky twice in the last two years, which makes him a legitimate opponent for Deontay Wilder. But Deontay Wilder, even at 80% of what he was, should flatten Heleneas. But Heleneas can crack. He's 6'7".

He's a big guy. He can throw bombs. And if he catches Wilder, and Wilder doesn't have the passion, that's what worries me about Wilder. You can't just decide to get back into boxing because you like it, and you want to make some money, and people still want to see you. You've got to want it. You've got to be hard after it.

I remember the reason Tyson was finished at the very end wasn't just because of his age and eroding skills. He didn't want it anymore. He was just out there collecting paychecks at the very end. That's what worries me about Deontay Wilder, where that fire in the belly that got him through the Olympics, through all those early tests, through Fury in the first fight, in two great, great fights against Fury in the last time of it. I wonder

if he still has that passion for the sport. Is Usyk a generational guy for you or is he one level below? He's one level below right now, but if he can find a way to beat Tyson Fury, he's up there. He becomes the greatest fighter of this generation. I mean, the cruiserweight tournament, nobody knows who these Cruiserweights are, but they were great fighters. Like, Cruiserweight Division is a way station for boxing. It's where you stop in on your way to heavyweight. But that Cruiserweight Tournament,

he ran through some good, good guys, from Marco Hawk to Marius Bredis, all throughout that tournament. And he turns around and just flattens Tony Bellew right after Tony Bellew flattened David Hay in back-to-back fights. So he needs one or two more wins at heavyweight to put himself in that Mayweather, Pacquiao, Delahoya category of the great fighters of this generation. There's a little Hopkins feel to him where you just don't know how he keeps doing it. There's times in every fight

where it feels like he's in trouble for 20 seconds, but there's some sort of boxing savvy, some natural DNA for what to do when the chips are down a little bit that I think that's what makes him special to me. That ninth round, it looked like he was going to get knocked out. And part of it was Joshua not totally realized the moment, but then the 10th round, Usyk comes back and he honestly, it's like he gained strength from kind of staring at death's door for a second there. And he's better the next round.

I would love to see him fight Tyson Fury. Would he be outweighed by what? 60 pounds? 65 pounds? He came in around 220 for this last fight. Fury, I would imagine, is in the 270s, so 50-ish pounds. Right, so 50 pounds. Oh my God. Look, I would favor Fury in that fight significantly because Fury fights like a true big man. One of the only guys in boxing that fights like a big man. You watch back his fights. How he drains you is every time there's a clinch,

he puts that 6'9", 270-pound frame right on your shoulders, parks it there, and leans on you. So you're holding up your weight, and you're holding up his weight for four or five seconds, three times around. That wears on you over the course of a fight, and he'll do the exact same thing to Alexander Usyk. But Usyk's going to have a game plan, man. He is going to have an excellent game plan and he is going to make that a competitive fight. That guy is that talented. He's going to

find a way to make you think during that fight that he's got a chance to win it. Yeah. 2022 has been like a C minus D plus boxing year so far, but I think 23 could be amazing. There's a lot of stuff. We're heading toward a lot of fights that I'm stopping everything to see, basically. So I can't wait. All right, Mannix, we can hear your podcast in the volume, Sports Illustrated,

occasional DAZN. Sometimes you're on location. Other times you might be pretending to be in location, but you're a busy man. I always appreciate when you find the time for us. You got it, man. Anytime. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Schrager and Mannix. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing. Thanks to Steve Cerruti and Dylan Berkey as well. We will be back on Sunday with yet another Bill Simmons podcast.

See you then. On the wayside On the first sun Never lost it I don't have To ever forget