The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Case for Tompa and Million-Dollar Picks With Peter Schrager. Plus: Casey Affleck on Sports Movies.

Episode Date: February 5, 2021

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Fox and NFL Network’s Peter Schrager to discuss the looming QB carousel in the NFL, a Super Bowl preview, and Bill’s Million-Dollar NFL Picks for Super Bow...l LV (3:00). Then Bill talks with actor Casey Affleck about some of his films including ‘Good Will Hunting,’ ‘The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,’ ‘Gone Baby Gone,’ ‘To Die For,’ his new film ‘Our Friend,’ and more. They also discuss their favorite sports movies (1:09:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Coming up, they aren't just the red hot million dollar picks. They aren't just the smoking hot million dollar picks. They're not just the smoldering hot million dollar picks. They are the hotter than the equator million dollar picks. It's all next. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all.
Starting point is 00:00:22 We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way if you were wrong.
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Starting point is 00:00:59 Here's what you have to do. Visit FanDuel.com to download America's number one sportsbook. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too.
Starting point is 00:01:34 Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious.
Starting point is 00:01:55 You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. Anthem performance at the Super Bowl 30 years ago. I remember watching this in college. I have it as the second greatest National Anthem experience of my life. I still have Marvin Gaye at the 83 All-Star Game for NBA and Philly first, Carl Lewis third, and Whitney second.
Starting point is 00:02:59 So there you go. Anyway, really good podcast. Go check that out. Don't forget to check out Sports Cards Nonsense as well. Rewatchables, we have potentially two Rewatchables podcasts coming next week. I'm just flagging this now. One of them has a very special guest who happens to be famous. So there you go on that.
Starting point is 00:03:18 Don't forget to check out the Ringer NFL show because they're going to be coming probably right after the Super Bowl, much like me and Sal will be. If you want to hear Kevin Clark and Nora Princiati. Kevin Clark did a great job on Slow News Day. Did a whole bunch of interviews this week. If you like that show, you can check it out on our YouTube channel or on our Twitter, as you call it. That's it. Coming up, Peter Schrager, our good luck charm, million-dollar picks, and then Casey Affleck, who's somehow never been on this podcast,
Starting point is 00:03:48 talked about a whole bunch of movie stuff. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, taping this. It is 2 o'clock PT on Thursday. The Good Luck Charm is here. Peter Schrager from Good Morning Football from Fox. Now he's just known as the Good Luck Charm. We have had one of the great runs, I think, in the history of podcasting. Last three weeks, 7-0 on my big playoff bets for million-dollar picks.
Starting point is 00:04:33 9-3 against the spread. Picked all 12 winners of the actual games. Made $3.271 million fake dollars. You must be getting stopped in the street in New York, just constant attention for this. It's crazy. I live in Brooklyn. There's hipsters with a little mustache,
Starting point is 00:04:52 and they have their own typewriters at home that they use, and they're stopping me. They're screaming from the streets about million-dollar picks. In all honesty, I mean, Mark Maron did Louis C.K. twice, and those were epic. You had Kevin Durant. Those were solid. Serial, the original serial.
Starting point is 00:05:09 Podcast history. I think we're in there, man. It's Mount Rushmore stuff. This is how I feel. And the best part is each week we've talked it out. We haven't necessarily agreed, but at least we've gotten to a good place where I felt like my angle was strong. The Super Bowl is going to be a beast.
Starting point is 00:05:24 We're going to get to it in a second. We have a lot of props and stuff too. And I'm going to, we'll bat it around. I have a specific angle I think I'm taking, but there's still time for you to talk me out. Before we do that though, let's play a little QB carousel. We had McVay finally got rid of Goff last week, last weekend, which I think we had predicted on this pod. This is probably not looking great for Goff. Now Watson might be out there. The Raiders might want somebody. Garoppolo, just let's stop the carousel for one second. Tell us what's going on. All right. Let's start with last week. I wasn't on the million dollar picks,
Starting point is 00:06:00 but this was happening throughout last week. It was reported out there, but I don't think enough really got enough press about it. So McVeigh checks into a resort in Cabo last week, Cholino Bay. That might be where you guys roll. I've never heard of it. It's one of these top high-end resorts in Cabo. He gets in the villa. He's texting me from his villa during the NFC Championship game. He's watching. He's with his fiance. They're having a great time.
Starting point is 00:06:28 Tuesday, Matt Stafford rolls in and checks into the same hotel. This is on Tuesday. Wow. Now, from what I'm told, Drew Brees is at this hotel. Sean Payton was at this hotel. Andrew Whitworth was at this hotel. And there was nothing nefarious going on. But the second these things start heating up, McVeigh and Stafford are in Cabo at the same time on the grounds of the same hotel. So they're not allowed to really technically talk and they didn't from what I
Starting point is 00:06:56 gather. But when this thing started coming together, it became obvious that this was the guy that McVeigh had his eyes on, not Watson, not Rogers, not – like, Stafford is who he wanted. So he's going way hard at it with the Rams front office, and they love Jared Goff. And he's saying, like, look, Jared Goff, we had a nice run. We're not getting any further than we are right now. And the two of us, it's run its course.
Starting point is 00:07:21 It's obvious. He kind of strong-arms the front office and says, like, let's make this happen with Stafford. Now, on end of it the lions they've had their their they've had their 11 years with stafford they never won a playoff game he was injured this year they want to start complete rebuild their number two in the in the front office at los angeles was a guy named brad holmes who is the new gm of the detroit lions they hired him. Holmes drafted Jared Goff. And believe it or not, and I know people will scoff at this,
Starting point is 00:07:49 is a huge Jared Goff fan. Loves Jared Goff. And is like, wait, Jared Goff, we can get him for Stafford and they're going to give us two first round picks? If you're of the belief that you like Jared Goff, think about this trade. Not only do you get a quarterback you like that's 25 and has been to the playoffs
Starting point is 00:08:03 and has been to the Super Bowl and all this stuff you also get two first round picks usually you would have to trade two first round picks for a former number one overall pick who's not washed up so Holmes is like all right we gotta Carolina gets involved right Carolina offers a very sweet deal one that might have involved a top 10 pick from this year which would have been back to back the seventh and eighth overall pick if the Lions kept their would have been back to back the seventh and eighth overall pick. If the Lions kept their seven pick, they'd get Carolina's eighth pick and maybe Teddy Bridgewater too. So now there's some offers. Denver calls, Indianapolis calls, Washington calls. And I'm told the Washington deal was really strong, all for Stafford. And at the end of the day,
Starting point is 00:08:41 Stafford was like, I'm thinking I want to go to San Francisco, Indianapolis or Los Angeles. And the Lions were so sensitive to not ruin this relationship because the way it ended with Calvin Johnson, the way it ended with Barry Sanders, that's not how they want to start this new regime. They're like, let's work with Matt Stafford. Let's make this happen. And the fun, weird inside connection to McVay and Stafford that predates any Cabo festivities. When McVay was in high school, he was a high school quarterback. He was like a running option quarterback. And the rival high school had another running quarterback, a guy named Chad Hall.
Starting point is 00:09:18 Chad Hall went to Air Force, ended up playing in the NFL. He was with the Niners when they went to the Super Bowl. He was with the Eagles for some time. And is now the wide receivers coach in buffalo and it's like really highly regarded chad hall sean mcveigh tight since high school buddies they're all in the coaching world it's them of those deals chad hall's sister is kelly stafford so mcveigh has known matt stafford for years through chad and it's his sister so Stafford and McVay have known each other they've been in the same social circles this thing comes together and from a football standpoint he's all in and I spoke with him throughout last week I spoke with him this week
Starting point is 00:09:56 and it's basically like are we living or are we existing it sounds like a Matthew McConaughey quote or something but it's this is it put it on me's on me. I'm the one I want to, I want it Stafford. I want to get rid of Jared Goff. You can put it all the pressure on my shoulders and let's ride. And at the end of the day, Detroit was like, we don't want to piss Stafford off. We think we like Jared Goff and that's the trade there. There's been some good pieces about it too, especially on the ringer.com,
Starting point is 00:10:22 a great website about the, about the Rams, just basically looking at this model of how everybody builds a football team and saying, fuck it. We don't value first round picks. We value right now. Um, we'd rather get known quantities. First round picks maybe aren't as valuable as everybody seems to think they are in the NFL. It's no different than what happened in basketball and in basketball, it's kind of run a mock people now, you know, they're, they're not just worried about two first round picks. They'll give away like seven. They don't care. Um, it's either going to be a beautiful disaster or they will have stumbled upon a new
Starting point is 00:10:57 way to do this. Not the only way to do it, but a way, you know, or they're just like, fuck it. We don't value first round picks. I kind of wish the Patriots had in valued first round picks the last four or five years. Cause we didn't really make any good ones. That's the point of it, right? The Patriots are always picking in the back quarter of the draft and it's hit or miss at that point. Once you get to like 20, the difference between the 20th overall pick and the 60th overall pick is really dealer's choice. And, you know, talking to the Rams guys,
Starting point is 00:11:23 Clyde Edwards, a layer went 32 um deandre swift went like 36 they got cam acres at 52 and they liked cam acres like and that's just what it is and in the draft if you are convinced you are a playoff team and you believe in yourselves and say okay we're built for playoffs we got ramsey we got donald we've got of course now stafford. We've got all this high-end stuff. We don't plan on having a top 10 pick. So what are we valuing if it's a 23rd or 24th pick every year? We don't really care. By the way, not much different than how Belichick handled it
Starting point is 00:11:56 when he would trade out of the first round every year, but he would trade for multiple picks and not current assets. Who knows if this deal will be considered a home run, a triple, double, single know, current assets. I get, you know, who knows if this deal will be considered a home run or triple, double, single, or strikeout. I guess for me, I would like it more if Stafford was 30 or 31 instead of 33. I liked it for Detroit.
Starting point is 00:12:16 I thought it was smart. You know, I really thought it was an inventive deal. They're not going to be good anyway. I think Goff's worth a flyer, not too crazy. What happens, to me? This has no effect on the white. This was its own trade. Now you can't say,
Starting point is 00:12:29 Whoa, Watson, how many picks is he going to get? You can't compare them. That's what everyone's saying. It's oranges. Yeah. The Watson thing.
Starting point is 00:12:37 He's got a no trade clause. And, you know, I was trying to think if I'm running the Texans and Watson, the way players can put pressure now through social media, they can also they can also say, I'm just not going to show up for the season. You can't really mail in a football game the way Jimbo Slice mailed in those Rockets games before he got traded to Brooklyn, James Harden. But if you're Houston and you're already a shit show, you kind of want resolution on this. You also have some awesome suitors, you know, and you have the Jets and you have the Dolphins. And if the Raiders got super excited, you have mystery team X,
Starting point is 00:13:17 God only knows who's out there. I would assume they're trading him. And I actually think it's the right move. What do you think is going to happen? A couple of things here. So first of all, everyone you're mentioning, anyone who says like, well, we haven't picked up the phone, they're lying, everyone has called. And everyone has been told to a man by Nick Casario,
Starting point is 00:13:37 the former Patriots front office guru, who's now their first year GM, who, by the way, signed a six-year contract that makes him one of the highest paid GMs in the league before even doing a single deal. He has told them he is not for sale. This is as of February 4th. He's not even entertaining Watson offers. So anyone who's putting all those trade machine offers together, it's almost premature to do it because the Texans are telling everyone he is not for sale we're going to work this thing out so then it goes back to well what the hell went wrong and from all accounts I get it happened because people would say well they traded away his best receiver no he signed
Starting point is 00:14:17 a five-year extension worth a hundred something million after they already traded away DeAndre Hopkins so chronologically that's not why he's upset. What he's upset is there were conversations with ownership multiple times, and he was given word that he would have input on some of these hires. And he didn't. He did not have input. And by the way, he should have had input. Well, that's the question, right? And I spoke to another executive who put it this way. He's like, in another year, if you wanted to say come on now like you're a player where the phone do you know how easy it is to get on zoom for two hours and interview someone it's not that you don't have to take a flight you don't if he if
Starting point is 00:14:55 he gave you a list of three gms and three coaches you could have interviewed him you could have and that's what i think is so like it's not lazy but it's almost like just inconsiderate to tell him we are going to value your opinion and you are going to have input and then to not even get on the Zoom. Now, the name that keeps popping up is that Robert Sala is the guy that that Watson hypothetically suggested. And Sala didn't get invited to interview on a Zoom with the Houston Texans. Do you know how easy it would have been for McNair and whoever else to just say, all right, we're going to interview Robert Sala as one of the 15 candidates that we've interviewed.
Starting point is 00:15:30 Wait a second though. How many guys in the league actually are at the input level? And I'm not saying, but, but I mean, input, not like, Hey, tell us who we should hire as a head coach, but like, Hey, Deshaun, we're looking for a head coach. Like, we just wanted to talk to you about it. Um, and just, just keep you in the loop on that. Like, I don't think it's that hard to do. How many it's like my homes it's Watson. Are there three other guys? You know, it's like, I think Larry Fitzgerald has a significant voice in Arizona. Honestly, I don't know if all these quarterbacks like, like Brady,
Starting point is 00:16:08 Brady didn't have much say in new England. Brady had zero say. I mean, as I'm saying, if Brady doesn't have it. But I think Manning had say in Indy once upon a time. I think they, they ran stuff by him, especially like with free agent signing stuff like that. But like, you know, the other Manning, Eli, I don't think he had a say in who was being quarterback.
Starting point is 00:16:25 I don't think it's very rare. I don't think they do give, and Roger certainly wasn't involved in the floor. Like, I don't think they do that that often. And that is why this was to say that you're going to bring in Deshaun. And then to not, I think he was really insulted. And, you know, Cal McNair is not his father.
Starting point is 00:16:44 He's been, he's inherited this team. And I think this is going to have to be one of those deals where they have to really try to repair this thing. Because the next step is, all right, it's a March. And now this quarterback carousel starts going around and Indy finds a quarterback. And Washington finds a quarterback in Denver. And now suddenly the seats are getting filled. Then the draft comes and maybe the Jets take a quarterback in Denver, and now suddenly the seats are getting filled. Then the draft comes, and maybe the Jets take a quarterback. Well, there might be five QBs in the first, what, 16 picks?
Starting point is 00:17:11 Yes, and Carolina might take a QB, and suddenly these seats are getting filled. Houston, if they don't get anything for Watson, well, then we're in real trouble. And the new CBA is interesting because one of the small fine print things that someone called out to me was you can find these players for years and they used to do it for holdouts. And then at the end, I'm like a pat on the back. They'd say, all right, here's your money back. We signed a new extension. We figured it out.
Starting point is 00:17:32 The new CBA, apparently, you're not allowed to give that money back. Like if you hold out and you are fine for missing practices and missing workouts and missing whatever else, the teams by the CBA are not supposed to give that money back to the player once he does show up. So if they really want to play this hardball, and it's a dangerous game, the Texans can find him up to something like $3 million before the season starts for missing things, and then they still have the franchise tag three times after a five-year deal. So he signed that contract five months ago.
Starting point is 00:18:05 I am so fascinated how it plays out, but like they're right now, not listening to offers. They're confident that they can work it out with them. All right. So we'll do QB carousel quick. You just have to give your pick. I'm going to give you a team. Okay.
Starting point is 00:18:16 And you can say a player or you can just say rookie for who you think their quarterback is going to be in September. Okay. San Francisco. By the way, hold on. Before we do this, let's do it. So when I shout out the teams, if you go like seven for seven, it'll be the most amazing YouTube clip of all time.
Starting point is 00:18:36 You'll be like fucking, you'll be like Yuri Geller, like putting a spoon on your nose. Yeah. Okay. All right. 2021 September. The quarterback of San Francisco will be? Jimmy Garoppolo. Okay. All right. 2021 September, the quarterback of San Francisco will be Jimmy Garoppolo. Okay. New England.
Starting point is 00:18:53 Mack Jones, rookie Alabama. Oh, I was going to, you could have just said rookie. Okay. Mack Jones, Washington. Washington will have a rookie quarterback. Houston. Deshaun Watson. Miami. Tuatunga-Vailoa. Okay. Indianapolis. Carson Wentz.
Starting point is 00:19:20 Carson Wentz? I don't know. I don't think so, but I think that's fun. Washington? Did we do Washington? We did Washington. There was a report out today that, that the Eagles have gotten calls on Wentz. I'm not, you know, I don't think it's the league is batting down the doors for Carson Wentz, but I would be intrigued to see if Frank Reich did make a call.
Starting point is 00:19:42 I mean, they have a giant hole at quarterback and they got a really good team. Indianapolis is fascinating to me. They went after Stafford and did not land him. Bears? Bears is really interesting because I heard they want to be super aggressive. I just don't know who's out there besides Watson
Starting point is 00:19:57 that they're going to go after. So I'm going to say rookie with the Bears. And then Carolina, I guess, would be the last one. Rookie again. What veteran didn't we mention? I think we're good. Let me ask you this, though. Darnold is interesting.
Starting point is 00:20:14 How about the Chargers call Houston? Herbert straight up? Herbert straight up for Watson. We'll throw nothing else in. That's such a good trade. It's my favorite fake trade. I actually had an argument with somebody recently about it because I actually think the Chargers should not do that. I think for what Herbert showed this year on a rookie contract, I think that's the single most valuable thing you could have in football is the cheap quarterback. I would much rather have that
Starting point is 00:20:36 as great as Watson is. I would rather have Herbert, but it's a great fake trade because if I'm Houston, you're giving me Herbert for Watson. Done. Let's call it in. I don't need anything else. You don't even have to throw in like a seventh round pick. Herbert was so good this year. So good. He was so good. He might be better than Watson by next year.
Starting point is 00:20:55 Like he's that good. Watson's really good. The question, I think Schefter tweeted it out, which is interesting. If you're Jacksonville, do you trade the first overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, for Deshaun Watson straight up? No. No. Because I'm putting him in the same situation he was in last year.
Starting point is 00:21:17 Yeah. Deshaun, by all accounts, by all football metrics, had an awesome season and he went 5-11. Yeah. At some point, if you're on a bad team, that's just what, and he went 5-11. Yeah. At some point, if you're on a bad team, that's just what your record is going to be as a quarterback.
Starting point is 00:21:28 You're going to be 5-11, 6-10. It doesn't matter how many cool things you do. All right. We are going to circle back after this break, and it's time to talk
Starting point is 00:21:37 about the Super Bowl. Let's go. And inch our way toward the Million Dollar Picks. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention,
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Starting point is 00:22:50 let's talk about this game. I've thought about it. I've stared at it. My initial take was chiefs minus three layup. I don't want to go against my homes. I don't want to go against Kelsey. I don't want to go against Tyreek Hill. All the things we talked about two weeks ago,
Starting point is 00:23:03 as we were crushing another week of million-dollar picks. Been staring at it for 10, 11 days, thinking of worst-case scenarios. I can't get past the Chiefs' offensive line. I'm just going to walk through this for you and America. Left tackle, Eric Fisher. Gone. Right tackle, Mitchell Schwartz. Gone.
Starting point is 00:23:29 Right guard, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. Is that how you say it? Yeah, you nailed it. Right guard, he's gone. He opted out before the season. Left guard, I'm going to have trouble with this one. Kolekio Asimeli? You got it. Close enough. Left guard, he's gone.
Starting point is 00:23:45 Four of the five guys they thought they had before the season are no longer on the Chiefs offensive line. Mike Remmers, signed offseason as a backup. He's now our left tackle. Quick Mike Remmers background. Signed with Denver as an undrafted free agent in 2012. Played for eight different teams in nine years, six of those teams cut him from either their 53 man roster or practice squad.
Starting point is 00:24:10 He was the right tackle who got torched by Von Miller to the Superbowl as has been recounted many times. That is Mike Remmers. Now this year he is not allowed to sack in 2020. Andrew Wiley, who is a guard and kind of like a borderline backup fill-in guy, is now the right tackle of the Kansas City Chiefs. And then Stefan Wisniewski? Two-time Super Bowl champion. Waved by Pittsburgh this season.
Starting point is 00:24:43 Picked up by Kansas City in late November. Signed off the scrap heap. He's their starting left guard. And the more I think about this, I think of this makeshift, pretty crappy offensive line. I wasn't that impressed with their offensive line when these guys were healthy. I thought they had a lot of holding penalties, a lot of, you know, just in general, it was always like,
Starting point is 00:25:02 eh, is this the same offensive line as last year? And now you're going against this Bucs team that has Todd Bowles, who I think has been one of the breakout stars of these playoffs, going to do a bunch of blitz, disguise blitz, pressure. Oh, suddenly there's not pressure. He's got the two awesome linebackers, David and White. He's got the front four. Now that our guy V is back,
Starting point is 00:25:25 that's going to be able to potentially just do the four-man rush every once in a while. And then JPP on one of the sides, wherever he decides to line up, I don't think they're going to be able to block the Bucs. What do you think, Schrager? Okay, let's go through that offensive line again. Remmers has been a journeyman.
Starting point is 00:25:43 He's been good this season. He's been good this season. He's been good this season. As a right tackle, which is the inferior tackle position when you have a right-handed quarterback. Filling in for Schwartz. All right. Nick Allegretti will be at left guard.
Starting point is 00:25:55 He's been good this year. He's been solid. Austin Ryder was their starting center last year. He's still their starting center. He's the only incumbent. Wisniewski, who was cut by Pittsburgh, was their starting left guard last year in the Super Bowl. So he's no stranger. And Wiley's been solid. And I go back to this. They've got one of the best offensive line coaches in the league
Starting point is 00:26:15 and Andy Heck. And this team adapts and adjusts no matter what. We've thought about it 30 times that this is going to be an issue. When Duvernayif opted out i thought that was going to be an issue didn't miss a beat when damian williams opted out didn't miss a beat they lose clyde edward tolair for a month they don't miss a beat i this team is one of those squads that are champions and their whole entire deal is adjust and adapt now i love j, and he had the quote of the week. First of all, I don't know about you, Bill, but I feel like there's zero buzz around the Super Bowl whatsoever this week. It just feels like...
Starting point is 00:26:51 I can never, in a pandemic, I never know what the buzz is. It's a pandemic, so there's no one down there. So there's no, like, media blitz. It doesn't feel wall-to-wall, and yet I think it's the best Super Bowl maybe in two decades on paper. Like, I'm so excited for it. Me too. And JPP was asked about Mike Remmers,
Starting point is 00:27:06 who he has faced multiple times at regular season games. And he's like, who? I don't know who that is. I've never heard that name before. Is that who their tackle is? And he laughed. And I'm like, I need that. I need a little bit of that.
Starting point is 00:27:18 Like, just give me something. That is old school. That's not Lovefest, Gronk and Kelsey telling each other how great they are all day long, and Brady and Mahomes just waxing poetic on the other the Buccaneers defense is not nice they are a mean group Vea does not smile I've interviewed him multiple times Vita Vea has never had a grin Sue is Indomitian Sue he's still the same guy as much of a polished image he's had and Jason Pierre-Paul wants to wants to destroy. So they've got this front four
Starting point is 00:27:45 that is fantastic. The linebackers are great. And yet Kansas City doesn't miss a beat. And I've never seen them all of a sudden have an offensive line collapse. Mahomes throws the ball too fast, gets it out of the pocket so easily. And Andy Reid is aware of their issues on the offensive line. And I am confident in that team that they can adjust. Is that a good enough counter to all those injuries? I'm going to give you an example of when their offensive line was barely holding on and borderline collapsing last year in the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:28:14 It's true. San Francisco pressured him that whole game in a very similar situation to this year, I think, where they have good pass rushers, disguise blitzes, all kinds of things, and can play some tricks. I really like this Tampa defense. And even last week at the Packers,
Starting point is 00:28:30 they end up, they give up 26, but like their secondary is banged up. All those guys are back now. Yeah. Jamel Dean is an interesting name. He didn't play in the first game. He's their fastest defensive back. He will be healthy.
Starting point is 00:28:42 Again, not a household name, Jamel Dean, but they have him and he can keep up with Hill at the very least because, remember, Tyreek went for 203 yards in the first quarter last time they played and ended up having two touchdowns in the game and did a backflip into the end zone in their building. So I think Jamel Dean's a huge addition, and Winfield, from all accounts, is going to play, which was a late scratch last time they played Green Bay. So there's a couple things I don't like for the Chiefs.
Starting point is 00:29:06 One is I really worry about their offensive line. Two, I don't think they run the ball very well. And I've just never really been impressed by it. And I think with this Tampa team, I think they're going to have trouble running the ball up the middle and around and doing stuff like that. I also think you can run the ball on the chiefs, which is not a controversial opinion. So you look at this and you think,
Starting point is 00:29:31 if I'm picking the chiefs here, I'm doing it because it's like, oh, Mahomes can't go against Mahomes. This is how, one of the ways you get in trouble with football gambling year after year, where you basically do the, I don't want to bet against this guy strategy. Um, Rogers has been like that for years. I'm green bag. I don't want to bet against Rogers. Meanwhile, the other team is better. Couldn't
Starting point is 00:29:53 you make the case? Tampa has more talent. Like if you're just going to say who has the 12 best guys on each team, who has the better 12 best guys? I think Tampa's 12 best is better than Kansas city's best at this point. Okay. So that's depth. That's quantity. Let's rank them. Let's rank the top 10 players in this game. I would go Mahomes one. Yep. Kelsey two, Kelsey two, Brady might say, you might say Hill three. They have the top three. And there might be a world where you give Tampa like nine of the next ten. That's fair. But if you're going one, two, three with those three guys, and you assume that Tyron Matthews is going to make a big play,
Starting point is 00:30:35 Frank Clark's going to make a big play, and the defense can do their own, what if Hill and Kelsey just go bonkers again? Which they can. They did it last time they played them. They're not letting Hill go bonkers this year. That's the one thing. I know, but it was a fuck up. If they didn't learn from that,
Starting point is 00:30:49 Tampa doesn't deserve to win the Super Bowl anyway. I just think they're going to Belichick the Hill thing. They're just going to be like, you're not beating us. Three guys on them and let Sammy Watkins and McCall Hardman beat them. Let Watkins, Hardman, let your mediocre running backs. Yeah. We're not going to let Hill and Kelsey beat us.
Starting point is 00:31:08 So I look at these two. I looked at three games that I thought, what are like the doppelganger games for how to beat this Chiefs game? It came down to these three. Kansas City 31, Carolina. KC 33, Carolina 31. Do you remember that game though? That game was crazy. I watched it. It was a crazy game. Kansas City 27, Tampa 24, Kansas City 22, Cleveland 17.
Starting point is 00:31:33 Yeah. All right. So we're going to throw out the Tampa game because I think they're a different team than they were in my homes with them up. I don't think Tampa's defense is the same. The Carolina game, Carolina had 31st downs. Yep. McCaffrey basically is the only game. McCaffrey was amazing. 76 plays. Oof.
Starting point is 00:31:53 They had nine drives. They only punted twice. 38 minutes time of possession. McCaffrey was basically 151 yards and 28 touches. Teddy was 36 for 49 for three, 10, two TDs. And what happened?
Starting point is 00:32:09 My homes was just awesome. And he throws for three 72, four TDs and Carolina misses last second. I think it was a 67 yard attempt at the end. They went for it. Almost got it. Yeah. This bucks team compared to that Carolina team and some of the same stuff. Can they run the ball?
Starting point is 00:32:26 Can they have long drives? Will they have a quarterback that controls the clock? Can they convert third downs? Can they make plays on third and seven, third and eight? The answer is yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. Like I'm not the first person to say this. You don't want to pump more than how many times in this game if you're Tampa twice. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:44 I mean, yeah. If you're pumping more than how many times in this game if you're Tampa twice? Yeah. I mean, yeah. If you're pumping more than twice, you're in trouble. I would say the combo of turnovers and punts can't go more than three. That's fair. Yeah. So the Cleveland game, Cleveland 17, KC 22. Cleveland 21, first down, 60 plays. Two turnovers, eight drives, zero punts.
Starting point is 00:33:04 Eight drives. One of those drives, the guy, two turnovers, eight drives, zero punts. Eight drives. One of those drives, the guy, and I count this as a turnover, the guy fumbled it out of the end zone. Higgins. But they had long drives. They ran the ball. They controlled the clock, I think, with a way inferior team. They rushed for 22 for 112.
Starting point is 00:33:20 They kept Hill and Kelsey, 16 for 219. But, you know, no Mahomes for the fourth quarter. I think if Tampa wins this, it's a cross between that week nine Carolina game and that week 18 Cleveland game. Long drives. They can't be choppy, weird Tampa. They got to make some third downs
Starting point is 00:33:39 like they did against the Packers in the first half. And the difference is they can't have turnovers in the second half. That's the recipe. Let's go back to Saints-Buccaneers divisional round. Remember, Saints were controlling that game, and Jared Cook has an all-time gaffe. Chiefs don't make those gaffes.
Starting point is 00:33:58 Let's go back to last week. Rodgers is in the red zone, and it's all right. We got four shots from the nine-yard line. Incomplete on first down, incomplete on second down, third down. He doesn't run. He throws it and then they kick a field goal because they're not sure. And essentially LeFleur, whether he would say it or not, is like, well, we gave you three shots and you didn't get a yard.
Starting point is 00:34:17 Why should I suddenly think you're going to get it from the nine yard line now? The Chiefs always convert those. Like these are little things, but you have to remember, when you say, well, the one reason is Mahomes, the one reason is Mahomes is because he's that amazing, and we have never in our long history of watching him, three seasons as a starter, he has never not shown up. Even in that Super Bowl last year, where for the first three quarters,
Starting point is 00:34:41 it looked like he didn't have his A game, he had as good a fourth quarter in a Super Bowl that anyone's ever had hitting the wasp play is one thing but the watkins pass was amazing and his elusiveness i feel like i can't in good faith go with you betting against patrick mahomes in a huge game not until i see him lose one of these at least one in some situation other than the afc championship game a couple years ago where it was his first big playoff matchup with Brady. And he heated up. He heated up pretty hard in that one.
Starting point is 00:35:10 Chiefs run rush defense. 31st DVOA. It's not great. They are, according to Bill Barnwell, the worst team in the NFL at stopping opposing rushing attacks in power situations like third and short or fourth and short.
Starting point is 00:35:27 Tampa rushing by the week, 29 for 142 against Washington round one, 35 for 127 against New Orleans, and then 24 for 76 against Green Bay. Not quite as effective in that game. Why wouldn't they be able to run the ball, control the clock against the Chiefs? Take out Mahomes. Let's talk Tampa offense versus Chiefs defense.
Starting point is 00:35:49 Why wouldn't they be able to have long drives and keep Mahomes off the field? That's the Otis Anderson theorem, right? That's what the Giants did to the Bills. 0-7 Giants. Yeah, both Giants. Yeah, that was Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs that year. But it's run the ball and just keep them off the field and just convert on
Starting point is 00:36:05 third downs. You have to be really disciplined to do that. And the Bucs were really disciplined throughout the playoffs doing that. Are they going to be able to be disciplined enough to say third and four, third and six, third and five, we're okay getting in those situations as long as we're ticking time off the clock. I don't know, because in the second half last week last time against the Packers, that wasn't the case. And Brady was throwing ducks all over the clock. I don't know because in the second half last week, last time against the Packers, that wasn't the case and Brady was throwing ducks all over the place.
Starting point is 00:36:28 Like, you... That is going to be there. Cold weather, physical game. Yeah, that's true. That's true. But the little pass, the little dink and dunk to Jones and Fournette will be there. It always is. It's whether Brady and Arians are going to be disciplined enough to say,
Starting point is 00:36:44 hey, if it gets us to win, we're good with it. I don't know if this, if Mahomes is coming out and scoring and doing this, that they're going to be willing to say, all right, we need to slow down the pace. We're not going to get a track meet with them because on paper, everyone looks back to last year's Colts and Texans wins in the regular season over the chiefs.
Starting point is 00:37:02 And the Colts ran the ball like 40 times for 138 yards. And then the Texans did the same thing. And they said, okay, that's the blueprint. No one has been able to duplicate it in 20 attempts since. They just don't. It's hard. Even the 49ers last year had a lead. They tried to abandon that thing once they got into the fourth quarter. It just happens. You want to be able to put the game away, and that's when you get in trouble. Again, on paper, of course, Fournette, 35 carries for 165 and two touchdowns,
Starting point is 00:37:32 and we win 28 to 21. I don't see it happening that way. FanDuel betting as of Thursday a.m. Are you getting excited for this game, though? I mean, I cannot wait. I am. FanDuel betting. Percent of bets on Kansas City, 67%. Really?
Starting point is 00:37:51 Percent of money on Kansas City, 80%. I don't like this if I'm a Chiefs bettor. Moneyline bets, 47% on KC, 53% on Tampa. And then over under pretty much all the money is on the over. It's like 73, 74%. Everybody likes the Chiefs. This line's going to go to three and a half, I think, by Sunday. I think they're holding off right now. You can get value.
Starting point is 00:38:22 You can get Tampa on FanDuel at basically even odds. You don't even have to pay a vig on it. But where have the looked a little too good? The previous round team is one of our gambling manifesto rules. The Chiefs looked fucking awesome last round against that weird Buffalo team that couldn't run the ball anymore and
Starting point is 00:38:39 was missing a couple key guys. The nobody believes in us factor. It's a little bit there with Tampa. Yeah. Nobody thought we could win four straight rounds. People thought Tom Brady was old. Everybody said this, Mahomes is the next dynasty. Well, here's the dynasty right here.
Starting point is 00:38:55 It's Tom fucking Brady. Yeah. Rule number six of the manifesto, don't pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it can win. I think the Bucks could win. Rule number 10, when in doubt, gravitate toward the pick that would screw off the most gamblers and experts. Seems like the Chiefs.
Starting point is 00:39:12 And then rule number 16, take one last look at the quarterbacks, which we're going to do right after this break. What's the feeling of fall? It's finally catching the sunrise. And not because you woke up early. No, you woke up nice and late. And you know what? The sun waited. Then you went and got what you love from Starbucks. The new pecan crunch oat latte and new baked apple croissant.
Starting point is 00:39:40 And enjoyed that warm apple filling and those nutty flavors with rich brown buttery notes while the sun rose just for you. That's the feeling of fall. And it's only at Starbucks. Tom Brady, 43 years old, capable of playing really well in football games against good teams for stretches. We have not seen the all four quarters version of Tom Brady. Here's the case for him being good on Sunday. It's basically two games. You have the,
Starting point is 00:40:14 the lead, the huge lead up. Then the game starts. It's ugly. It's choppy. Everybody's got too much adrenaline. And then around midway through the second quarter, it starts to heat up. And then it stops and we have a
Starting point is 00:40:28 40-minute Super Bowl halftime, which Brady knows. And Brady has talked about this, about part of the key of playing a Super Bowl is knowing just how fucked up of a game it is and how you have to peak in the second half. I think you can make a case because it's two half games.
Starting point is 00:40:44 That's actually good for Brady. He, he, it's not like I need to put together four quarters in a row. It's like first quarter is going to be first half is going to be weird. I just don't want to turn the ball over. We're going to run the ball. Be careful. I'm going to take advantage of my tall receivers of I'm not making a mistake. Second half. Now it's like, now I got my adrenaline going. Now I just, I'm 90 minutes away from my seventh Superbowl. I think he locks in. I think this is the best version of Brady in this game. I actually think it's going to be way different than that green Bay game. Your thoughts on this prediction.
Starting point is 00:41:18 I think you're right. I think Brady's awesome in this game. I also think as much as it was banged over our head over the last two weeks, not enough is being made of as we lead up to this thing, that it is a Buccaneers home game. Yes, sir. It is a Buccaneers home game. And I've spoken to sources on both sides of this thing. And when I tell you that it is the Chiefs fans travel and there's going to be red in there, and that's all great. There's 7,500 healthcare workers going to be red in there and that's all great there's 7,500 health care workers going to be in the building from the NFL most of them from the Tampa area you have all of the Tampa
Starting point is 00:41:52 local folks who have access to this that are going to go because the Super Bowl comes once every 10 15 years to Tampa Bay and you know there was like a goof of a story but i could tell you and i mean this seriously the buccaneers wanted to be able to shoot those cannons like the ones that they do at the games and they made a big deal out of it and the chiefs like highest up at the chiefs were like that's bullshit they're not allowed to do that they didn't earn that like you guys get so then for a week it was tit for tat whether they can blow the cannons or not. It turns out the NFL sided with the chiefs, but like psychologically, you know, the bucks are leaning into this saying,
Starting point is 00:42:33 they were worried about the cannons. Like we might have something here. They're worried about our cannons. Forget what we can do. Like, look, the chiefs are traveling Friday. I love, I love that piece of this. Yeah, no, they travel Friday. It's like, okay, boom, we're in the Super Bowl. You don't usually have a week to get your feel. You get to work out at the stadium one day. You get to know the whole hoopla. Now, you could say, look, it's just another business trip, just another game.
Starting point is 00:42:57 Chiefs, that's what it is. They're used to this. But Brady is sleeping in his bed the night before the game. I'm sorry. You say what you want. When you get to sleep in your own home before a game and you get to just say, all right, I'm going to drive my own car to the stadium at three o'clock tomorrow and we're going to play in the Super Bowl. I think that is a giant advantage. And as much as we were like, oh, you know, we roll our eyes,
Starting point is 00:43:18 first team ever to host a Super Bowl. I don't think anyone's talking about it right now. And it's huge. It's huge. I couldn't agree more. And, you know, heading out of the last break into this one, talking about the quarterbacks. For Brady, he knows. He's already the GOAT.
Starting point is 00:43:36 That's fine. Winning the one without Belichick, I would argue he has more incentive for this one than any game he's played in since that Seattle Super Bowl. Where it was like, the Pats hadn't won a Superbowl in 11 years. Um, maybe it was a fluke. Maybe they were never that great all along and they win that one. And so, and you see Brady jumping up and down after the Malcolm Butler thing. He's never going to care about a win from the last 12 years, more about winning that game right but this
Starting point is 00:44:05 one all the different legacy shit that goes and i've just been thinking like whatever that dude i can't even imagine if somebody was like hey we figured out the hemoglobin from four-year-old children in the tampa bay area might give you a little more adrenaline brady would be like put in a fucking milkshake i'll drink it let's. He'll literally put anything in his body that would help him win this game as long as it didn't get him suspended. The nobody believes in us slash we've never
Starting point is 00:44:34 been here before. I want this more badly than I've wanted anything in my life. You go on down the line, right? Sue never won a Super Bowl. Evans and Godwin. Gronk has a fuck you to Belichick because he clearly has issues with him. Gronk has a fuck you to Belichick because he clearly has issues with him. Fournette has a fuck you to the Jags.
Starting point is 00:44:49 You go on down the line, they have 25 guys, all the guys in the secondary. Devin White. David, who's slogged away on all those shitty games. Nine years. This is the greatest moment of their lives.
Starting point is 00:45:01 This is like they're three hours away when they're... The Chiefs won last year. They already did this. There is no way this game means as much to the Bucs, to the Chiefs as the Bucs. It might mean 98% as much, but this is the single most important night
Starting point is 00:45:15 of everybody's life on Tampa's sideline, except for like two people. Todd Bowles. Arians. Arians. All the way through. And they're home. Like, I feel like that has to be mentioned as an advantage. Arians Arians All the way through And they're home Like I
Starting point is 00:45:25 I feel like that It has to be mentioned As an advantage The Brady effect Can't be Discussed enough On this team So they're a shit team
Starting point is 00:45:33 For the last decade They never go to the playoffs All that stuff And I was getting Texts from Folks who work for the team Around August Being like
Starting point is 00:45:41 You should see Devin White at practice He's unbelievable Because Brady's Talking shit to him And Brady's getting practice. He's unbelievable because Brady's talking shit to him and Brady's getting into – like he's lifting all of them. And so the story I got from this past weekend, I think Levante David retold it on a podcast he did with like
Starting point is 00:45:55 Brian McFadden and Patrick Peterson. Someone sent me the clip because I was like, yeah, I was talking about it. After the NFC championship game, I believe it was Jadon Mickens who returns kicks for them, was crying at his locker because he was overjoyed with the opportunity to go for a Super Bowl. And apparently Brady walks up to him and is like, what the fuck are you crying for? And he's like, we have a Super Bowl to win, dude. We don't cry over NFC championship game wins. So this is the demand and the standard that Brady has. And last year,
Starting point is 00:46:27 I remember speaking with Brady. I did a sidelines game for NFL Network when they played the Bills. And I got to speak with Brady in one of those production meetings where, you know, all the announcers are like, we talked to Tom on Friday. Well, I talked to Tom on Friday and he was like, I don't have anything against Jacoby Myers. I have nothing against Nikhil Harry. You're asking a lot from rookie receivers to play at the standard that I demand. So when everyone sees me barking at them, it's not anger at them. It's that it's so frustrating for me because I know the standard and we're not reaching it and there's nothing I can do about it.
Starting point is 00:46:58 He gets to this team. They're all so good, so hungry, and they're so loving. So like Arians is like, Brady, take a Veterans Day off if you want. That didn't fly up there. Arians told JPP, you don't have to practice at all this year. Like, just come when, like, I got you. Just be ready on Sundays. And the other piece is Alex Guerrero's there every single day with a Buccaneers logo on his jacket, sitting there on the field at practice. Like, bring whoever you want whatever you need tom brady we're going to embrace it we're going to make it easy on you and we are going to
Starting point is 00:47:30 be grateful for your presence and i think he's trying to give that favor back like i want to show you that you can win and have fun at the same time do you see the there was a meme this week where they took a photo of him for like the cbs specialty shoot and he did the shrug shoulders like having fun like brady's shrug shoulders, having fun. Brady's shrugging and giggling before the Super Bowl. It's a whole different deal, and I think they all feed off it. They don't want to lose this for Tom Brady. They respect him so much, and I think they want to win for him too.
Starting point is 00:47:57 He's one of the greatest and one of the most special team sports athletes of all time, and also, more importantly, one of the most competitive. And him pulling this off. I think he gets it. Some guys, they can play their whole careers. They don't think about the big picture stuff.
Starting point is 00:48:15 And even Brady's been on the record as what's your favorite Superbowl. I went the next one, this guy. And it really changed. I think over the last 10 years, he's crafted his entire life to succeed at football. It's all he cares about. And I think the TB12 thing has kind of bled into that a little bit
Starting point is 00:48:29 because he's so passionate about how his lifestyle choices have led to the extended success he's had as a great football player that he really believes in that stuff. Like, it's not like, it's a little Tom Cruise-y, but I think it's authentic. I think he gets this. He understands if I do this, now I have to be mentioned with like Jordan
Starting point is 00:48:55 and Ali. There's this whole other level, this extra room in the nightclub of the greatest ever. Is he on the outside of that nightclub right now? What's the list? I don't think people think of him on the Jordan level yet. Jordan, Ali, Federer, who else are we including in this list? Tiger?
Starting point is 00:49:19 Tiger was there and then they kicked him out of the room and they moved him to the next room. Federer, he's the greatest tennis player ever on one hand, but on the other hand, like a lot of people went toe-to-toe with him and beat him, so he's probably on the list with Brady. Brady's, some people have looked him in the eye, and they've beaten him. You know, I think the difference with Jordan,
Starting point is 00:49:37 that nobody was able to beat him when it really mattered. So I think with this, like, it's all going to depend if they win and how he plays. I think they're tied together. If it's like a Peyton Manning kind of Super Bowl win where it's like, eh, he didn't do that much, but all these other good things happen. But I don't think that's what's going to happen. I think he has a lot of weapons,
Starting point is 00:49:59 and I think this Chiefs defense isn't that good, and I think he's going to do a good job this weekend. Let's flip it on its head, just for argument's sake. Cause that's what we're doing. Second half Brady from Packers game. Well, no, my homes is coming into this game. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:14 And what if he beats Brady? My homes has his whole life ahead of him. He's going to go down as like the best quarterback ever. Does this not, does this not put a stake early in the ground and say, i've already beaten him so they can't hold that against me like if you want to think real long term say my homes is there for 10 more years and he's got plans of winning all these super bowls i'd be brady don't bring brady's name up it's as if brady beat montana straight up like right to me this is my homes at 25 saying here's my second and i've already
Starting point is 00:50:46 you know beaten brady at 25 in the third year of my career i it their third year starting well that's why this is such an awesome game it's amazing all right well i think i'm gonna take the bucks plus three and here's why you can go to sleep saturday night knowing you're you're this flawless record million dollar picks the whole deal yeah and you're gonna say okay i've plus three. Really? You can go to sleep Saturday night knowing you've got this flawless record, million dollar picks, the whole deal, and you're going to say,
Starting point is 00:51:08 okay, I've watched Mahomes and Kelsey, all these playoffs, and I'm going against them. Yes. For two reasons specifically. One is that I think either team
Starting point is 00:51:20 can win this game. And I'm getting the three points. And my goal is to cover the spread. And I get Tampa plus three. And I think this team can win this game. And I'm getting the three points. And my goal is to cover the spread. And I get Tampa plus three. And I think this is going to be a close game that I think Tampa Bay is actually going to win. But if they don't win, I still think it's going to be close. I don't see a scenario where the Chiefs, you know,
Starting point is 00:51:38 blow them out or anything like that. I think Tampa has too much talent. That's one piece. The other piece is all the stuff we talked about. The incentives, the fact that they're home, the fact that I think they're playing really well. And then I just think they, I think they match up really nicely with this Chiefs team. I think they're going to be able to run the ball on them. I think they're tall receivers are going to be able to make plays. I think Brady will be meticulous about not making mistakes. He will
Starting point is 00:52:03 feel less pressure than anybody in this situation who's ever been in this situation because this is a fucking tense Super Bowl. And I don't know. I keep going back to that Cleveland game. Even before the Mahomes injury, Cleveland was kind of going toe-to-toe with Kansas City there. And they could move the ball and they could do things
Starting point is 00:52:22 and they could get a little pressure. And I was pretty telling. I don't know how good this Chiefs team is. I guess they were down 19 to three before Mahomes got hurt. But they came back, though. Remember that? Well, but that was what was it at that point? Like 1911?
Starting point is 00:52:40 Yeah. But the guy fumbled it out of the end zone. I don't know. They had drives in that game. I know. And they didn't even go to Kareem Hunt in the beginning for some reason out of the end zone. I don't know. They had drives in that game. I know. And they didn't even go to cream hunt in the beginning for some reason. They were like avoiding, they ran the ball. They were like almost six yards of carry with a, with Chubb and hunt.
Starting point is 00:52:56 So the Kansas city defense does though. Okay. You've got 32 Matthew who's always there. And then they got this 38 Snead who makes a play every game. He's a rookie fourth round pick with Jerry Snead. Like he will make a play in the. He's a rookie. Fourth round pick. LeJarius Snead. He will make a play in the Super Bowl. And you're going to be like, who? He is good. No, that guy is good. I'll give you that one. They're opportune. They can be run on shore. And Bill Barnwell can do the analytics and we can, I mean, it's all there. And the
Starting point is 00:53:15 football outsiders guys can give you their ranks. When the Chiefs defense needs to make a stop or needs to make a play, they do it time and time again. And it's like, Ben, but don't break with them. And they don't give up the big play.
Starting point is 00:53:28 They haven't since Spagnuolo got there. I'm going to go through some props. You're going bucks. I think I'm going bucks. You're so disappointed. We've disagreed on a couple other of these. I'm not, I like it.
Starting point is 00:53:42 We should disagree. The, all of these picks are based on my I like it. We should disagree. All of these picks are based on my theory that the Bucks are going to win this game. Devin White, 50-1 for MVP and JPP, 80-1. I wouldn't bet those. I just wanted to flag them. Could this
Starting point is 00:54:00 be one where everybody on Tampa's offense is kind of amorphous. There's no breakout guy and it actually goes to JPP because he had three sacks. Yeah. I would do the JPP over Devin White. Cause I think he's going to get to the quarterback. I was thinking with the Devin White one, a pick six or something. Yeah. He shuts down Kelsey. He gets a pick six. He has a strip sack. Yeah. 51. That's not terrible. Two defensive players. Is he not like the most fun player to watch in football? But isn't that a good guy to
Starting point is 00:54:27 throw on Travis Kelsey? Like somebody who actually athletically could hang with him and dismantle him a little bit? Yeah. He could definitely run him down. So could David. They're both two of the fastest linebackers in the sport. Playoff Lenny is 30 to 1 for MVP.
Starting point is 00:54:44 Potentially. Props. Six and a half punts seems high high under that's what i was thinking all right we're gonna mark that down brady plus 296 i'm sorry brady's over under for uh pass yards is 296 and a half. That seems really high to me. It does. Especially if my thesis is going to be the Bucs are going to win this game. They're going to win the game by, they have nine drives.
Starting point is 00:55:14 They control the clock. They have 37 minute time of possession. A little like they, so I don't see him throwing 300 in that. Fournette's over under is 48 and a half. Tyreek is 94.5. Kelsey's 98. If you want to do Kelsey 110 plus,
Starting point is 00:55:30 do a little alternate prop on FanDuel, plus 142. I mean, every game it's 110 plus. Every game. Unless he gets hurt, he's getting a... Someone brought this up to me today from another team. A guy texted me, like, you know what? Because of their offensive line, don't be shocked if Kelsey
Starting point is 00:55:45 uses a blocker a lot. I'm like, no, fuck no. That's not what they're doing. Gronk is 31.5 and Brait is 30.5. Yards? Yeah, for receiving yards. Kind of like the Brait one
Starting point is 00:56:01 a little bit, just because it does feel like Brady likes Brait. He finds him in weird spots, but I like him more for a touchdown prop. It seems like that's like, that's like three catches. That's tough. How about JPP gets one sack plus one 40. Oh, I think JPP has a huge day. I think he might have two or three sacks. Okay. Um, Casey, total penalty yards, 39 and a half. That's two holding calls, a pass interference, an offsides, and a legal man downfield.
Starting point is 00:56:31 What were we talking about with Cousin Sal on Monday, though? Like, you don't want to bet. Who wants to bet on penalty yards? I'm just throwing it out there. We don't have to bet on any of this. That's actually an interesting point, though. If the strategy is to rush Mahomes, I think we'll know very early.
Starting point is 00:56:45 The ref is Carl Sheffers, who's pretty, he throws flags. Like, if Mahomes takes an early hit from JPP, who's going to be on 11, or Devin White, who plays at this crazy speed, and they go a little hot, and it's, do they, is there a Jordan Rules deal where Brady or Mahomes, they're throwing flags, and it's 15 yards here or there for late hits and unsportsmanlike.
Starting point is 00:57:05 I have the bet for you. Roughing the passer. Just one. Plus 155. I like it. That's one of my favorite ones. I'm going to mark that one down. Because you figure Brady and Mahomes, they're always going to err on the side of caution with both guys, right?
Starting point is 00:57:21 Absolutely. Will there be a missed field goal in the game? Yes, plus 125. Yes. Feels like the Bucker thing is almost preordained. He'll hit it from 58. Right. Like something weird will happen.
Starting point is 00:57:39 Missed PAT, yes, is plus 230. Speaking of Bucker. A Bucker missed PAT is yes, plus 230. Speaking of Butker. A Butker missed PAT is yes plus 470. What's amazing is that for years the Buccaneers had such kicker issues with Aguayo and all their guys and Matt Gay and now they're the team with the reliable kicker of a suck up.
Starting point is 00:57:58 There's some Fournette stuff that I'm intrigued by because it goes along with my theory that if the Bucs win or come close to winning, partly it would be because he played well. Is that not an incredible story though? They ended up going 1-15
Starting point is 00:58:14 and they cut him because they're like, eh, we don't have room for you on the roster. It's annoying. It happens in basketball sometimes where the buyout guy is all of a sudden playing crunch time. You're like, what the fuck? How'd they get this guy? Cause he just grabbed them off for net 70 plus yards is plus two 65, 80 plus yards, plus three 70, 90 plus yards, plus five 50,
Starting point is 00:58:37 100 plus yards plus seven 50. How much do you think they're doing? I mean, that's your strategy. If you believe in it, go with a hundred. 70, 70 or 100. 70? 70 or 80. 70 seems realistic, right? Plus 265? I'm going to mark that one down. All right. Fandle does same game parlays.
Starting point is 00:58:53 I think they're very enjoyable. I'm going to read you a couple. Let's do it. Scotty Miller scores and the Bucs win. Plus 729. Does Scotty Miller, followed by everybody in America making jokes about how Brady only throws the white guys. So you get that as part of the
Starting point is 00:59:08 parlay too. Oh, of course. Scotty Miller, of course he's going to throw to him. This one I like a little more. Tyler Johnson scores a touchdown. Bucks win. Plus 1329. Have you noticed Tyler Johnson's always lurking in big situations for them?
Starting point is 00:59:23 Third downs. He loves them on third. I'm going to mark that one down. Where's the Byron Pringle prop bet? I know he's having a game. Oh, you like Byron Pringle. I can find that for you. He's doing something. Brady scores a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:59:38 Buck's win is plus 7-7-7. The only reason I mentioned that is because that seems like good luck. 7-7-7. And it's his seventh ring. And he's never scored a rushing TD in the Super Bowl. I could see the Brady one-yard rush over the top, sure. Nine games,
Starting point is 00:59:55 zero rushing touchdowns in the Super Bowl. So that would have to be. There's only one scenario. How about Brady catching a pass? Is that one of them? I did not find that one. Gronk scores. Bucks win. It's I did not find that one. Gronk scores. Bucks win. It's 5-1.
Starting point is 01:00:07 I can see Gronk scoring. Fournette, 60-plus yards. Bucks win. Plus 303. If you're going by your strategy, that's absolutely. That's a no-brainer. Fournette, 90-plus yards rushing. Bucks win.
Starting point is 01:00:20 Plus 846. Well, what do you like more, 60 or 90? What's more likely? I like the 60. I could see him going like 17 for 68, something like that, because I do feel like they're going to use Ronald Jones a little bit. Fournette scores
Starting point is 01:00:36 the first TD of the game. Bucks win. It's plus 16-12. Tampa scores a defensive or special team's touchdown. Tampa wins. Those two things have to happen. Plus 11-22. Pick six. Fumble return.
Starting point is 01:00:52 It'd be monsters. Special teams. Call out your guy. Who's going to do it for Tampa? Who's the guy? Is it White? Devin White jumping the Kelsey pass, reading it. The strip sack.
Starting point is 01:01:03 The JPP strip sack picked up by Sue rumbling in. Sue, that beat of Veya just blocking. Yeah. Secondary dude or the pass that's a little behind McCole Hardman and bounces up in the air and the safety takes it down the sideline. I kind of like that one. Carlton Davis pick six. All right, go for it.
Starting point is 01:01:23 And here's my favorite prop. This is a three-team same-game parlay. Brady under 296.5 passing. Fournette over 80 yards rushing. Bucs win. Plus 998. Almost 10-1 odds. It's a great
Starting point is 01:01:42 bet. If the Bucs win, I feel like both of those other two things happen. Okay. Can you throw in the defensive touchdown and make it a four team parlay on that one? Oh yeah. Let's do that. And I'm going to get you the Pringle odds.
Starting point is 01:02:00 We're going to take a break and come back and we're going to do the controversial million dollar picks for the Super Bowl. Hey, you can celebrate the 55th edition of the big game with exclusive 55-to-1 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. If you've never tried FanDuel before, new users can bet on either team and get 55-to-1 odds when Tampa plays Kansas City.
Starting point is 01:02:19 $5, win $2.75 if you pick the winner of the big game. On February 7th. We are going to be breaking this down. Not just the big game, but all the props as well off of FanDuel. Coming up on Million Dollar Picks, FanDuel has a range of betting options. We're about to go through all of them. It's easy to place your bet faster in a game.
Starting point is 01:02:38 If you see a trend you like, download the FanDuel Sportsbook app. Use promo code BS to get started. FanDuel Sportsbook promo code BS. Must be. FanDuel Sportsbook promo code BS. Must be 21 plus. Present in Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, or Virginia. New users only. Must wager on designated boost market.
Starting point is 01:02:55 $10 deposit required. Max bonus $2.75. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Schrager asked me to look up Pringle scores a touchdown.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Schrager asked me to look up Pringle scores a touchdown. Chiefs win plus 577.
Starting point is 01:03:12 It's a great deal. Pringle scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl. It's the one sure thing. I love Pringle. What? Make the Pringle case really quick. I love Pringle. He was the one who caught the coolest pass last year
Starting point is 01:03:22 for Mahomes against the Colts. And then this year against the Bills, made about three big plays. They love him there in Kansas City. I could see Andy concocting a way to get number 14, or 13, 13, Byron Pringle, a touchdown in this one. All right. It's time.
Starting point is 01:03:40 And look, we don't always agree when the good luck charm Peter Schrager's on Million Dollar Picks, but that's part of the fun of this. We talk it out. Maybe we don't always agree when the good luck charm Peter Schrager is on million dollar picks, but that's part of the fun of this. We talk it out. Maybe we don't land in the same place, but I use him as my sounding board. He makes me think about things, maybe back off a couple of things, whatever. To recap, we are up 3.271 million for the playoffs.
Starting point is 01:04:02 We are up 2.339 million for the season. 7-0 in the playoffs with big playoff bets. 9-3 against the spread. We have picked all 12 winners of the actual games. First bet. $750,000 on Tampa Bay plus three even odds. Go for it, baby. Tampa, they win, they lose by
Starting point is 01:04:28 three, I push. They lose by two or one, I win. Second one, we're going to bet 10K at 170 to one odds that the final
Starting point is 01:04:44 score of the game will be Tampa Bay 30, Kansas City 23. I like it. That's the exact score. Tampa scores three touchdowns. They get three field goals. They punt twice. KC,
Starting point is 01:04:58 they either two touchdowns, three field goals, or three touchdowns and a missed extra point in a field goal sure Or 23 there we Go prop bets we're Going to bet 25k Six and a half punts Under minus 110
Starting point is 01:05:15 We're going to Bet 25k on a jpp Sack plus 140 We're going to bet 25k that There will be a rough in the passer call. Yes. I see it. Plus one 55.
Starting point is 01:05:29 Jeffers has to keep them in line. We're going to get bet 10 K. Tyler Johnson scores bucks. Win plus one 33. We're going to bet another 15K. Brady scores. Bucks win. Plus 777.
Starting point is 01:05:51 I love it. It's in the stars. Maybe they go Philly Special to Brady. That's the one thing he has on his resume he hasn't done. Let's go. We're going to do 50K on Fournette. 60 plus rushing yards. Bucks win.
Starting point is 01:06:15 Plus 303. We're going to do 10K on Tampa. Tampa scores a defensive or special teams touchdown. Bucks win. That's plus 11. And we know the guy. We know it's Devin White.
Starting point is 01:06:32 We know it. We know the guy. And then we're going to do 50K on this parlay at plus 998. Brady under 296.5 passing yards. Four net 80 plus yards. Bucks win. Plus 998. Brady under 296.5 passing yards. Four net 80 plus yards. Bucks win. Plus 998. If that hits, that's an extra 500K.
Starting point is 01:06:51 That's great. And then just because it's the Super Bowl, we're going to bet on the under as well. Okay. We're going to put 50K on the under 55.5, which is minus 105. Okay. And that's all we have, except...
Starting point is 01:07:08 What about my man Pringle? Are we getting Pringle in there? No, Pringle's your bet. I'm not doing any Chiefs bets. I don't want to root for one Chiefs thing. You ever been in Vegas and your friend, like you're hot at the roulette table and your friend's like, just put one on 16.
Starting point is 01:07:20 You're like, no, no, it's my money. No, okay. I thought you were going to let me throw one in there. And then last one, just because you're pushing so hard for Pringle, we're going to put a 20 K on Pringle plus three 40 that he scores a touchdown in this game. You're a great friend. Thank you. And that's it. Those are the million dollar picks for the Super Bowl. We'll see how we do. I guess we had one big bet. So we need Tampa plus three to win. And that will be, we'll go eight and oh and play off big bets if that hits.
Starting point is 01:07:53 Plus all the other ones. We'll see how we do. I don't mind that we went against each other. I thought it was a healthy, it's a sign of a healthy marriage. It's great. There was some discourse back and forth. You made some points.
Starting point is 01:08:04 I made some points. If only politics could be so like this. It was great. There was some discourse back and forth. You made some points. I made some points. If only politics could be so like this. This was great. If only politics and real marriage could be like this. Trust me. Yes. Yes. Yes. Peter Schrager. Enjoy Super Bowl weekend. Thanks for being on Million Dollar Picks as always. Thank you.
Starting point is 01:08:20 This was a great ride. Good luck to your Tom Brady-led Buccaneers. By the way, you know what Tom Brady's favorite Super Bowl is? The next one. Let's go, Tom Brady! One more time, you and me! Pats! Woo-hoo!
Starting point is 01:08:34 Thanks, Peter Schrager. your free time with PC Express Online grocery delivery and pickup. Score in-store promos, PC Optimum points, and more free time. And still get groceries. Shop now at pcexpress.ca. All right, we're taping this on a Thursday. Super Bowl is a couple days away. Casey Affleck is here. He has a new movie coming out, which we'll talk about in a second. But most important question for anybody who grew up in New England and Massachusetts. Are you rooting for Tom Brady? Hell yeah. Okay, good.
Starting point is 01:09:11 Absolutely. Do you have a history with Tom Brady? I have a, yeah, I've got a long, long love affair with Tom Brady, but I don't think he knows about it. Just it's one sided. I mean, no one has done more for New England sports, I'd say. I mean, some people have, Larry and a few others. Russell, yeah. He's in the top four.
Starting point is 01:09:35 Yeah. Probably. I mean, he saved the Patriots. You grew up in Massachusetts. The Patriots are the black sheep. Yep. I was very young. I mean, Tom's been playing since the early 70s.
Starting point is 01:09:46 So I mostly remember winning. Yeah. We watched the Malcolm Butler Super Bowl in the same room at Kimmel's house. I brought Kornheiser there. Your brother was there with Matt Damon. The Patriots had hit a point where it seemed like those three Super Bowls that they had won were a mirage. And now we're back to being the bad luck Patriots.
Starting point is 01:10:10 High recatch, all these things. It's like, oh, we're just going to come close and get kicked in the nuts. And then all of a sudden things flipped and it was complete chaos. And we won three more Super Bowls. So there you go. Yeah, there you go.
Starting point is 01:10:20 And those were good times, man. The Sox were winning. Patriots couldn't be beat. Wow. Great. Great. I had two kids born in 04 and 07. I mean, everything was just clicking.
Starting point is 01:10:34 I had, my wife was pregnant during the 04 World Series. So we called my daughter the Miracle Fetus. And then my son, she was pregnant with him in the 07 World Series. So then I was thinking, like, should I just keep having children? The Red Sox will keep winning the World Series. But then they won two more anyway. I stopped at two, but it just kind of kept going and going. You did, what was that SNL one you did?
Starting point is 01:10:56 You did the Dunkin' Donuts, the fake Dunkin' Donuts one with the, I mean, it was like the perfect use because I always feel like you and your brother and Matt Damon, three of the best dialing it up Massachusetts accents ever. I was glad they took advantage of that in a sketch. That was really fun. I wasn't I wasn't very good at SNL. That was the first time I'd done it. And I just I just I haven't been in a lot of comedies either.
Starting point is 01:11:21 I don't they just sort of let me do it. And I remember thinking, like, I don't, they just sort of let me do it. Um, and I remember thinking like, I don't think I'm really killing it here, but then, uh, doing that skit, that was a pre-recorded one. And, um, I sort of felt like, oh, I can do this. It was more like working on a movie or something, you know, you can do it 15 different ways and start over. And, uh, um, that was a lot of fun, you know, going backwards to when you were in Goodwill hunting. Cause I remember I love that movie and I was watching the director's commentary and it, I think your brother was one of the people on the commentary, but he was talking about how
Starting point is 01:11:57 you're basically ad-libbing all this shit during the movie. So that that's not that much different than SNL, right? Well, you know, on SNL, man, you have to stick to the cue cards a little bit. I mean, a few times I would misspeak or say something different or whatever. But mostly you got to kind of stay with the program. But then when you do those pre-recorded things, those little short films that they make, then you can do whatever you want. That was a lot, especially with that character. That was a lot like Goodwill. I don't know why
Starting point is 01:12:32 I ended up making up all my own lines in that movie. I think I mostly just felt like they had written themselves all the good lines. I was like, well, fuck you. I'll just say what I want then. I only saw this once, but I remember there was a scene with you in the baseball glove
Starting point is 01:12:47 and Ben was explaining how they had no idea you were going to do that and they were trying not to make each other laugh in the scene. And that scene was the one that they kept in the movie, I think, right? Yes. It was a long time ago. I can't really remember, but I think that was in the movie. And at a certain point, if you're hanging out with your friends and you're making a movie, if you're lucky enough to do that, you know, you've got 15 hour days. There's a lot of downtime. Pretty soon, the things just evolve into trying to make each other laugh, just trying to entertain one another. And Gus Van Sant, the director, likes that kind of thing so nobody was cracking the
Starting point is 01:13:26 whip on us and saying like get back to the script you do this through that so we spent a lot of time you know just kind of horsing around well going backwards i think you did this whatever that that what was that the afi thing that that honor matt damon and you told a whole story you told a whole thing about how him and ben just used to torture you because you were literally the younger brother and you were just, you were just tortured by those guys for years and years and years. I don't remember telling that story, but I do remember thinking like that was in a show to give Matt a lifetime
Starting point is 01:14:00 achievement award. And he was probably like 43 at the time or something. I'm not taking this seriously. I think I had a few photographs put up and doctored behind me on the thing just to make him look bad. And I told some story. I just did it. I said whatever I could to try to embarrass him.
Starting point is 01:14:18 I don't remember saying that they tortured me. You know, they were pretty good. Although the first time I ever met Matt was, tell this story, we took the same bus to school. I was in second grade and I had a girlfriend named Kamala and her older sister was a girl named Kafi. And she was in like seventh grade with Matt. I didn't know who Matt was. I was a much younger kid. But we waited on the same corner and we got on the same bus. But because this girl who I really liked was sitting next, you know, she wanted to sit with her sister. So she went to, she would sit with her sister. So then I would go sit with her, which ordinarily someone at my age would not have been allowed in the back of the bus to sit, you know, with the older kids. Um, and at the time I was really into karate. Uh, and I was going to Fred Valari school of defense. I was like a yellow belt or something, you know,
Starting point is 01:15:13 I was eight, nine years old or something. And, um, so I was wearing my gi to school, which I thought was pretty cool. And, um, and I sat down there on this, on this, uh, school bus, school bus in the back there. And Matt said, oh, so you're a yellow belt, huh? And he said, I'm a black belt in street fighting. And Matt was not a black belt in street. Matt's never been in a street fight. Matt's never been in a fight as far as I know.
Starting point is 01:15:40 So that's one of my favorite stories about him. And I might have told that story at AFI, but I don't think that was as close as he ever got to torturing me. He's a pretty gentle, sweet guy. It's crazy that you've known him for that long. Because you make Good Will Hunting and obviously grew up with Ben and then you've known Matt since you were in second grade. And then somehow Cole Hauser gets pulled in as the fourth guy and just tries to fit it.
Starting point is 01:16:07 Cause he knew those guys went from dazed and confused or school ties. One of those movies. And, uh, and just kind of gets pulled in as the fourth honorary person. Right. Yeah. And he was a little intimidated about doing a Boston accent, which isn't that hard to learn. And he could have done it, but I think he just thought like everybody here is like really,
Starting point is 01:16:24 really is from Boston. that hard to learn and he could have done it but I think he just thought like everybody here is like really, really, he's from Boston and so he just, he had a bunch of lines in the movie but he kept either giving them away or he would just say like, I think my character's drunk in this scene. Kind of slur his words or put his head down on the table. Ended up not saying anything.
Starting point is 01:16:39 It was effective. I was living in Charlestown when you guys were making that movie. When Damon was on the podcast, I told this story, but I'm going to tell it again. They had an improper Bostonian cover story about local kids making a movie. And I remember reading it. I was like, oh, the guy from School Ties. Oh, the old man from Dazed and Confused. And it was just like, I hope that makes it. And then a year later, a year and aused. And it was just like, I hope that makes it. And then a year later, a year and a half later,
Starting point is 01:17:10 it became what it became. And I can't imagine you were expecting anything close to that. You filmed that mostly in Southie, right? Yeah, we filmed it mostly in Southie. And yeah, we did a little bit in Toronto. They forced the production to shoot some of the interiors in Toronto. I had done, the first thing I ever did was called To Die For, which was how we met Gus Van Sant.
Starting point is 01:17:38 That was also set in New England. And it was a true story about that teacher who had a relationship with her student and persuaded her student to kill her husband. And I knew Gus from that. And we stayed pretty good friends. We're still very good friends. And so he called me up when I was I'd gone back to school after I did that movie. And I was in school and he called and he said, hey, I read this script. I haven't finished it yet, but I read it. It's by these two guys. Is Ben your brother?
Starting point is 01:18:11 And I said, yeah, yeah, he's my brother. You should finish the script. It's really, you know, and he liked it, and then he ended up doing it. So I knew that, you know, Gus was a great director, and I knew that he was just going to do a good job with it. So I didn't think like, and I had Robin Williams in it as well.
Starting point is 01:18:29 Yeah. So there was some sense that it was going to be a good movie. Um, but yeah, I didn't think that it would be, I don't think anyone imagined it would be, uh, so popular. To Die For was a, a weirdly crucial Nicole Kidman movie. Cause it was really well received and it's a good movie and I think it has some legs, but I think that was the movie after that she became like an
Starting point is 01:18:49 A-plus list star. Before that she was like a movie star who's married to Tom Cruise, but it seemed like her career was different after that. And that was a really cool movie too. It was like black comedy, a little bit different, but now I think that's the kind of movie a lot of people have tried to rip off over the last 25 years.
Starting point is 01:19:05 Yeah, it's true. Gus, Gus Vincent is one of those directors where people steal him like he'll he'll do these movies. They're sort of considered like people like them a lot, but sometimes they're considered too arty or something. And then everyone steals it. And Nicole had done Dead Calm, which was a pretty cool Australian movie. And she was fantastic. And it's true, she was sort of in Tom's shadow just because they were married, which wasn't really fair.
Starting point is 01:19:31 And she wanted that part very badly. I think someone, Meg Ryan or someone was going to do it. And then Gus ended up casting Nicole Kidman. She was fantastic. I mean, then she went on to be you know, she had a long, great career.
Starting point is 01:19:46 Yeah, that was... She's incredible. It's funny. They showed an old SNL that she hosted because sometimes they'll show the old ones at 10 o'clock at night and it'll pop up on the DVR. And it was one that she hosted in 93.
Starting point is 01:19:59 Stone Temple Pilots was the musical band. And her monologue, the whole monologue was about people in the audience asking where tom cruise was and it's just like hey that's great but where's tom cruise and so you think like i think to die for after that it it probably flipped when when ben and matt were were uh living in la and writing good what you must have gone to visit them a couple of times, right? What were you doing? You know,
Starting point is 01:20:27 after high school, I was still 17 and I mean, a friend of mine drove out to LA, uh, you know, I wanted to be actors. I didn't know, we didn't know anything about LA. I didn't have an agent and,
Starting point is 01:20:36 and, uh, just kind of came out here. My brother was in school out here. I knew a couple other people living out here and i spent the whole year auditioning i didn't get anything and then the end of the year i got that movie to die for after that i just thought you know that wasn't a lot of fun being in la auditioning so let me i'll just go back to college and you know go do other stuff um and they moved so uh i was living in massachusetts
Starting point is 01:21:02 those some of those guys me and some other friends, including those two, we all live together and, and, uh, city called Somerville in Massachusetts. And, and that's when they were,
Starting point is 01:21:15 they were working on it. Then they were trying to get it made. Um, so yeah, I was around. Wait, hold on. Where,
Starting point is 01:21:22 where in Somerville? I gotta know. We lived in Davis Square. That would have been my guess. Like one of those big old school houses that were kind of semi-broken down, but the plumbing still worked? Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:21:34 Mostly it still works. Mostly. Every two months the plumbing goes haywire. Yeah. So when Ben, when that whole thing took off and those guys became like massive, massive celebrities and you're watching it from the side, did it make you want to be famous or did it not want you to make you not want to be famous? Not at all. Yeah. I mean, you know, you can't complain. Those guys should never complain about, you know,
Starting point is 01:22:01 anyone who has that, you know, if you don't want that you can quit and pretty quickly people forget about you yeah um but uh it isn't always uh fun uh and from you know being next to it i could see like i don't want this i think they like it more they they wanted that more we're less bothered by the kind of invasions of privacy. They didn't seem, they didn't mind that, you know. So, but it didn't, you know, I was young enough to see sort of other people go through it early on to see sort of like what was good about it, which was that it creates opportunities. You want to be an actor, you know, you get famous. Well, then you get to work with a lot of great people. And there's also downsides an actor you know you get famous well then you get to work with a lot of great people um and there's also downsides too you know but uh for whatever reason it it wasn't something that i was craving yeah because with your career you'll if you even if you go and look at like your mdb you'll just disappear for like two years and then you'll come back and and
Starting point is 01:23:01 then all of a sudden there'll be the you know like you look at all of a sudden you're in all the oceans, 11 movies. And then, and then in 07, you do the, the, uh, assassination of Jesse James and has legs. I think that's now considered one of the best movies of that decade by a lot of people. And I don't know if that was the case when it came out. I think it was respected. You obviously did well. You got nominated for it. But I don't think that was the consensus
Starting point is 01:23:39 coming out of 07. Like, oh, that's going to be one of the decade's movies. Now it seems like that's a consensus. Yeah, that's true. I mean, it's funny how that happens that i that movie was kind of a bomb warner brothers you know uh they had really good people there running warner brothers at the time and but they just couldn't fit that into what the studio was it wasn't a part of like it wasn't like other movies that they kind of market and um so it was a tough one and it didn't do well and uh but it has now since because it also was a western so people you know some people like westerns some people really love them a lot of people just aren't interested at all
Starting point is 01:24:18 so it was hard to market and also brad pitt dies you know two-thirds of the way through or something like that so it was kind of like a lot of people that were going to see a brad pitt dies you know two-thirds of the way through or something like that so it was kind of like a lot of people that were going to see a brad pitt movie and then i kill him and they're like we still why are we still watching you're like it's in the fucking title what do you think he was gonna live at the end um it didn't do well it has become uh recognized you know andrew dominic who made a movie called Chopper before that, he has a movie about Marilyn Monroe coming out. It isn't out yet, but I've seen it and it's unbelievable. Just great. So he's an incredibly talented guy and he works on these movies. He doesn't just crank them out.
Starting point is 01:24:56 He stays with it for two years, editing it and refining it. And I think they get to a point where they aren't just the kind of thing that pops immediately, but then people, they learn over time that it's they're great it's an amazing movie and it's a i'm still i still have cable and direct tv i'm i'm old but you know so we that's why we have a podcast called the rewatchables because a lot of times just flicking channels like oh this movie i'll jump in it didn't seem like that would be a rewatchable movie but i feel like it is because it's so different and there's also like a million fucking people in it it's you know it's like it's just like every actor like oh that guy oh hey whoa
Starting point is 01:25:35 and it just kind of keeps going and going when you uh when um when you're working with your brother were you was that something you wanted to do? Were you nervous about it? You know, your big brother's directing you. Like, what were the things that concerned you heading into that? I wasn't too concerned. I mean, at the time, he hadn't made anything. And so no one really thought that he was going to make a good director. Because usually, for whatever whatever reason people tend to
Starting point is 01:26:05 doubt instead of believe right out of the Well people kind of written them off too because he'd had a couple bad movies and they're like Affleck he's out. Yeah it's true and I think that's why he wanted to direct just because he was having a harder time maybe you know people have all kind of
Starting point is 01:26:22 ups and downs in their career and he was not having a good run as an actor but I knew that he was a really smart guy and had good taste so I had already done Jesse James in fact I was shooting it in Canada and he came up to the set
Starting point is 01:26:37 to visit and he said hey do you want to do this movie and I think that he probably had I not just gotten the lead in a Warner Brothers movie he wouldn't have been able to get it made with me hey, do you want to do this movie? And I think that, you know, he probably, had I not had just gotten the lead in like a Warner Brothers movie, he wouldn't have been able to get it made with me. So I think he kind of thought like, oh, shoot,
Starting point is 01:26:54 maybe Casey can get my movie made. And so then he put me in it. And I wasn't concerned, but we did fight a lot. But just in the way that brothers do, you know. Sometimes you work with a director, you know, it's a pretty, it's a pretty charged relationship and you can fight a lot and you end, I usually end up like, you know, really having a good close strong bond with the director. But, but in the, but in the middle there, while it's happening, it can be, it can be difficult,
Starting point is 01:27:21 but you just met the person a few months ago. So you're not really going to just like start yelling at each other. You know what you want? You're still trying to get along. And, you know, we'd known each other forever. We were very comfortable fighting. So we were just sort of, as soon as we started disagreeing about the smallest things, they were just turning into a big fight. And I, looking back, you know, I think people thought like,
Starting point is 01:27:41 these guys really aren't getting along here. But that's just how we relate, you know, I think people thought like, these guys really aren't getting along here. But that's just how we relate, I guess. I knew him a little bit back then when he was making that. And one of the things he told me that made me think the movie was going to work was he was fanatical about using real Boston people as
Starting point is 01:27:58 the extras and the little side pieces and stuff like that. He had the same thing that always drove me crazy about Boston movies, where they sometimes didn't seem authentic enough. There were, it's better. I think certain cities are like this. I think Philly's like this. There's, there's maybe Chicago's like this a little bit. If you're going to set the movie in there and really root it with the real people, the people who are going to like live and die there and have the kids that then grow up there and they live and die there and then they have kids.
Starting point is 01:28:26 I have to feel like those are the real people. And I think one of the smartest things he did with that and the town was to cast real people that seemed like they were from Boston because they were. That's one of the reasons I really like that movie. I don't know
Starting point is 01:28:42 why people who make movies in Boston more than in other places they really like to do that i guess that they feel like there's a there's a strong sort of like a sense of place they're still nowhere in other places they've been more homogenized by whatever culture whatever it is and um but in boston there's still a sense of like oh this is in boston these people have still have accents and they still there's a sense of like oh this is in Boston, these people still have accents and there's still a sense of like what it means to be someone who lives there that is changing but it's
Starting point is 01:29:11 just as like the city has been gentrified so much over the past 20 years but other movies, you know when we did Manchester by the Sea Kenny did the same thing he cast a lot of people there he also mixed in a lot of like theater actors and stuff.
Starting point is 01:29:27 Cause he comes out of that world and they blended in perfectly. You know, there are people I'm like, wow, Kenny, where'd you find this person? He's like, Oh, she was on Broadway last year. I'm like, she's amazing. She seems like she's been living in Lynn for 35 years. Yeah. So, you know, I've thought a lot about why so many movies are in Boston I think it's a couple things I think it's the accent
Starting point is 01:29:48 the fact that the downtown you have these identifiable pieces I think for the viewer who's not even there there's just things they know like they get water oh there's water around the city they know oh there's Fenway Park and the Sitco sign oh there's like the big park it's Fenway Park and the Sitco sign. Oh, there's the big park.
Starting point is 01:30:06 It's kind of condensed in the right way for a movie. Then you've got the little side pocket towns. Whereas if you set a movie in Philly, I think it would be probably... I don't have in my head what Philly is. I wonder if that's a piece of it. I also think just a lot of people who came to Hollywood
Starting point is 01:30:21 have some sort of weird Boston tie. I don't really understand the math of that. There's a lot of people from, I don't know. Yeah, because it's, you know, far. Yeah. How did they get here? There's a lot of people from Massachusetts working, Mindy Kaling, John Krasinski.
Starting point is 01:30:38 I mean, the list, Errol Morris. I don't know. For some reason, it just goes on and on and on and has for a while. But more recently, it might be because there's been a big tax incentive. They want movies and TV to shoot mass shoots. So they give them a big break on the taxes. So that means that there's tons of productions go there.
Starting point is 01:30:54 They end up hiring local. Those people get a few breaks and then they're like, hey, I'll go give it a shot in Hollywood, you know, and they go out. So then there's a lot of people out here or we're just like super, super talented. I don't know. Right. One or the other. Or, or maybe the cold weather and the, and the, uh, the, all the tough sports losses, maybe push people toward being more creative as some sort of outlet. Well, I'm talking way back now. Now maybe the next generation is so much happier with sports. Maybe that's, maybe it's going to die away. People will be less creative. Well, you know, one thing is, man,
Starting point is 01:31:26 when I go home, I find that a lot of those people just, they're people that mostly it's people who have just moved there. You know, that like Cambridge where I'm from just didn't used to be all young urban professionals. It was people who have been there for many generations. And just in my lifetime, that's changed completely.
Starting point is 01:31:44 That's a bit of a bummer. I know that life has changed, but it is still, I wish that when I was there playing at the park with my kids and stuff, I was seeing like the kids, people who I knew and grew up there with, just not that way anymore. So, yeah. Yeah, well, I lived in Charlestown for like 10 years
Starting point is 01:32:03 and the grocery store downtown was Johnny's food master. It was grim. I went back there like a year ago and it was now Whole Foods. And I was like, oh, there you go. So long, Johnny. Nothing against Whole Foods. I just thought it was kind of telling that- You hate Whole Foods. Well, Johnny's food master, you're holding up the 75% ground beef, like kind of see if it talks back to you. You mentioned Manchester by the Sea, which you won an Oscar for,
Starting point is 01:32:33 which I think most people know. That movie is incredible. It's also grueling in a way that I would say only a handful of movies I've seen in my life. Like that scene with you on the hill with Michelle Williams. That's one of the toughest four minutes I think I've ever spent in a movie theater. You know, and somehow, and we'll get to the movie I have coming out now,
Starting point is 01:32:58 which also has some really tough moments. But like what, after you finish filming a movie like that, what happens to you you mentally and physically? Because I got to imagine doing the same takes over and over again with something that serious and profound and whatever. That's just got to take something out of you. The whole movie took something out of me for sure. Sometimes you go and you do a movie and you give it your best shot,
Starting point is 01:33:27 but it's just not that taxing. Whenever I've talked about movies being hard, I just hate that. I hate the way I sound. It's something about it that sounds like I've worked too many other jobs to sit here and say that acting is a hard job. You know what I mean? I've done a lot of stuff that is actually hard. But that was hard.
Starting point is 01:33:51 And, you know, it, I don't know, every scene in that movie was that Kenny Lonergan wrote such a good script. It just did, it did a lot of the work for us. And he's also such a, just a like bizarrely brilliant guy
Starting point is 01:34:21 about people's behavior and about storytelling and that he's just a master at it. And so those, those, the movies that he writes and directs, they just work really well. He really touches, really moves people. I just don't want to take any credit for it. It's just not, it was just something that when I read the script, I cried and so did everybody else. And the same thing happened when you saw the movie. And there were a lot of really good actors in it.
Starting point is 01:34:50 Lucas and Kyle Chandler and Michelle Williams, all these people. And they're all great. But I, you know, all the credit has to be to Kenny, who's just a genius. And, you know, I was listening to Will Ferrell was on your show. I can't remember when it was, but I listened to him. And he was talking about how he was thinking in the future people will watch. You know, he wondered whether or not people would watch movies or they would just watch their favorite scenes like on YouTube or something, you know, like people just go in and sort of watch like they'll return to, you know, they've seen the movie once, then they'll just like look up their favorite scene on YouTube and watch that again and enjoy it. And they won't, they won't sit and rewatch movies over and over. And I was thinking how I don't have any scenes like that in my whole career. Like I've met when I go to do like, sometimes you go to a talk show, and they want to show one clip of a
Starting point is 01:35:36 movie you've done. I've never been in that position and had the clip be any good. And I always wondered like, why does my anytime I'm in a movie or something, that the, you can't find one scene on its own that's very good. Some of those movies have been really good, you know, but Will Ferrell, every single one of his scenes is great. Like, if he's in a scene, it's great. It's going to be funny. You can show it and watch it for two minutes and you'll laugh, you know. I just don't have any of those. Well, you have dramatic versions of those. You don't have like the hilarious versions of those. I definitely don't have the hilarious versions of those.
Starting point is 01:36:11 And I'm not sure that the draw every sometimes I watch a few scenes sort of out of context and movies. I just think like, well, that's not that interesting. It's just never that impressive, except the one time in my whole career was the one scene I did with will ferrell which is like you can watch that scene out of context and it works so i i you know i think um that like movies like manchester and scenes like that scene with michelle even those there's and the way that kenny tells stories it's hard to lift one thing out there's something else going
Starting point is 01:36:41 on that he's doing that is sort of carrying the audience with him. And that's why that movie ends up being so devastating. It's because it sort of moves you in a way that's totally unexpected. And it's done like magic by Lonergan. Well, and then you also have Damon's the guy who wants to make it and he can't make it. And gives you this part and produces it instead. This guy you've known since you were in the second grade. And what was, I remember when he came on and we talked about it, there was no like,
Starting point is 01:37:10 fuck, that should have been me or any of that stuff. He was like literally so happy that the movie worked out and that you were great in it. And he's had his own like incredible success. And it really did seem genuine, you know, where I wonder like some people like deep down, like, fuck, that part was awesome. I wish I wish that had been me.
Starting point is 01:37:27 But I didn't feel like he was like that at all. I thought he was genuinely happy for you. Yeah, I think he probably was. He's had a lot of success. I don't think he's. Yeah, he's doing fine, Matt Damon. He's all right. That guy.
Starting point is 01:37:40 What do you think that director's a genius? I've asked this question a couple of times on podcast to actors. Cause he strikes me as a particular there's he's a one of one. He's like a unicorn. I don't feel like there's anybody else like him. There's some statistic about peep directors, 98% of directors or 90% or something. I don't know what it is. Make one movie. Uh, and then there's like, uh, you know, the rest make, or make more than that. And it's because most people, they go and make one movie uh and then there's like uh you know the rest make or make more than that and
Starting point is 01:38:08 it's because most people they go and make a movie then they uh it's no good you know it just turns like it's easy to you know the the skills that it takes to get a job as a director are sitting in a room and sort of getting people excited persuading them that what you're going to do is good that's a whole different skill set than actually being good as a director, you know, and he is someone who has that second skill set. He really, you know, in a way that other people don't, he hasn't made anything bad. Talking about Kenny Larkin, he's made three movies, and they're all amazing. So people should just throw money at him. The industry, it got together and thought
Starting point is 01:38:48 how do we want to save the movie industry? Let's just give all the resources to the people that make the best stuff that really reaches people. He'd be at the top of the list. He's batting 1,000. So yeah, I think he's a genius. I remember the Ruffalo-Laura
Starting point is 01:39:04 Linney movie, which I think is one of genius. It's because I remember the Ruffalo-Laura Linney movie, which I think is one of the best movies of that decade. I know I've now said this twice about two different movies, but I love that movie. I really do. I think that movie just shouldn't have been as good as it was for how kind of simple it was, but it's not simple, which is why it's such a cool movie. So I was always following him after that.
Starting point is 01:39:23 And then he made that Anna Paquin movie that they argued about the length. And I don't think they even really settled it. And you can buy the one director's cut on Amazon versus the one that shows on cable. But that movie is, that movie will reappear every once in a while. And that movie is also really fascinating. And that was like, what, five years before Manchester. So my point is, i'm glad it worked out
Starting point is 01:39:46 in a big way for him because you could see the talent i wonder though i would love to see what his version of like an eight episode tv series is because a lot of his stuff is long anyway with a lot of different characters that's what that's what i would love to see somebody throw money at him with you know that'd be great that would be amazing. Here's some money, mate. Give us eight, like almost like with David E. Kelly when he does the Big Little Lies type things. It's like seven episodes.
Starting point is 01:40:10 Here's some money. Get some actors. Go. That would be neat. The movie you made, which is coming out now, even though you made it like two years ago,
Starting point is 01:40:24 Our Friend. It was initially My Friend. now it's Our Friend. Like you probably filmed that one, 2018? 2019? 2019. Yeah. So you did it two years ago and now it's finally out. It's in this weird pandemic world where it's released on demand.
Starting point is 01:40:39 There's no theater. It got held. It was supposed to come out a year ago. You've never had an experience like this. When you you think about this movie what do you remember about it now it's been two years um every movie you know when it's over and then you have to talk about it a little bit later when it's coming out it's hard for me to kind of you're in such a different place like you go to make new movies like summer camp you know're in such a different place. Like you go, it was a big new movies like summer camp, you know, it's such a like contained little experience. So you go show up,
Starting point is 01:41:08 you make it and then you leave wherever you're shooting and go back to your real life and you kind of leave it all behind. So it's hard, but yeah, after a couple of years, it's even harder to remember. I think that, you know, I had a great time with Jason Segel to go to Johnson is great in the movie. It's a true story. And it's a nice message, which I like. It's not really why I like pick movies, but it is what I like about this movie. I just thought like, this is something that whether it turns out and it's good or it's not, it doesn't matter. In the end, it's going to be something that i feel like i agree with that like the spirit of the movie is just is just right um and i've done a lot of movies where
Starting point is 01:41:49 i thought that they were great characters but it was like a lunatic or a serial killer or a sass or someone and i go like you know i was younger and i just wanted to play that part or i liked that it was dark material or whatever and um i don't know, these days I've been thinking, you know, trying to find things more, I kind of like the spirit of the movie. And Our Friend is one of those, because it's about a guy who has got nothing, his life feels totally empty. He feels sort of aimless and depressed, and he drops everything to go live with his friends whose lives are in crisis because the wife is dying of cancer.
Starting point is 01:42:38 And so he sort of puts everything from his own life aside, and he goes to take care of these other people. And by doing so, he kind of rediscovers things that he likes about himself. And, you know, sounds sort of hokey, but like, I just love that sort of message about, you know, being of service to other people and how it sort of is good for everyone. And it's a real life story. And you don't play the friend, you play the husband.
Starting point is 01:43:02 So for people listening who haven't seen it, Jason Siegel's the friend who I think has had a really interesting career. I did a podcast with him last year and I really enjoyed it. Like I really love talking to him. Back when we could do podcasts where the two people were in the same room.
Starting point is 01:43:17 Now everything's on Zoom. But I thought he was excellent in this movie. I thought the three leads were all really, really good, but he kind of, if he doesn't do as well as he did in that part, I think the movie falls apart. You know, every movie has like that one, there's the one performance that if it's almost like in sports, you know, like the bucks this weekend, like if Fournette sucks, I don't think they can win. Um, in. In your movie, if Jason Segel's a C+,
Starting point is 01:43:48 the whole movie falls apart because you have to buy that this guy, his life's in crisis and he's going to give up all this stuff, but I'm also kind of worried about him. I just thought he navigated it really well. By the end of it, you just bought all the relationships.
Starting point is 01:44:04 He's a really good actor. People just think of you as the stuff that all the relationships. He's a really good actor. I think people just think of you as the stuff that you've done. So he's done a bunch of comedies. He did a bunch of like Judd Apatow movies, which are also great. And he did a bunch of like TV stuff. And so they don't think of him as fitting in in a more dramatic role.
Starting point is 01:44:19 He's great. And there's no reason he shouldn't. And he'll do more of that. And he's a lovely, lovely guy. Sports movies. like no one will let me do a sports movie or a comedy because they just think i'm the guy who does the manchester by the sea or jesse james or whatever that's your fault though i feel like you could get this stuff done i can't i've tried i tried to do a movie i wanted to make a movie about those two yankees in the 70s who traded I remember that. Fritz Peters said to Mike Kekich? Kekich, yeah.
Starting point is 01:44:47 Such a great story. You bought the rights to it, though. I wrote the script for Warner Brothers, but MLB is notoriously difficult giving their permission to use the names, team logos, all that kind of stuff. So there came a point, it was
Starting point is 01:45:03 a pretty sordid tale. I think it was an interesting story because it's really about the salaciousness aside of two players trading wives, families, dogs, houses, everything. That stuff, you know, notwithstanding. By the way, for people listening, he's not kidding. That's literally what happens. They traded their lives for each other.
Starting point is 01:45:24 These two pictures of the Yankees. Everything, wives, kids, houses, the whole thing. That's literally what happens. They traded their lives for each other. These two pictures of the Yankees, everything, wives, kids, houses, the whole thing. Yeah, it escalated. They failed. They did it like they were swingers one night. They sort of like spent a night with each other's wives. Then they kind of fell in love. They tried to make it stick. They tried to keep it a secret. And the story ended up breaking in a really interesting way, because at the time, women were not allowed to cover they weren't allowed in the locker room female journalists to cover these to cover the team but the Yankees were kind of they were in the basement and the Mets were very were having a good
Starting point is 01:45:56 season and some of the better journalists wanted to go cover the Mets and one of them who had been traveling with the Yankees for a long time bailed to spend the season with the Mets. And there was a woman who tried to cover the Yankees and she wasn't allowed into the locker room. She was kind of like barred. And so when this story came out, people heard about it, but it was not covered because at the time, journalists, it was kind of gauche. You weren't supposed to talk about players' private lives. Right. And not the way it is now. So things were really different.
Starting point is 01:46:33 And that was just considered like kind of gross. But this woman, it was treated so terribly by being, she wasn't allowed to cover the team. So she thought like, okay, well, I'll write about this. And in ladies home journals, she wrote a story about these two players trading families. And then the story broke, and then it became national news, and Johnny Carson was making fun of him every night on TV. And it was really the first time that that happened,
Starting point is 01:46:56 and in part it was because none of the other journalists wanted to be scooped, and it was in part because Watergate had happened, and Woodward and Bernstein were heroes, national heroes. And a lot of the sports journalists wanted to feel like they could be heroes too, that they could write about, they could be investigative journalists, not just cover the games. And these guys were traveling with the team out of an era of like Mickey Mantle, those Yankees, and they would see all kinds of stuff. That was the cover it up era. It was the cover it up era.
Starting point is 01:47:25 It was the cover it up era. They were all doing drugs. They were doing drugs during the games. They were doing drugs at night. They were all fooling around and having affairs. And none of it was written about. And so suddenly the journalists thought, hey, we can write about this. It's big news.
Starting point is 01:47:39 We get our names in print. And then they did. And so it sort of got blown open and the yankees were embarrassed uh they canceled family day that year for one thing good idea yeah and um and these guys these they one of the couples tried to make it stick fritz peterson um and suzanne uh tried to they stayed together forever for the rest of the, they're still together. And the other couple broke up pretty quickly. They broke up right away.
Starting point is 01:48:10 It just didn't work. So it was a really fascinating story. I thought it said a lot about the times. It said a lot about like the social landscape. It was also right when the Yankees had been bought. Steinbrenner wasn't even allowed to go to the stadium. But like everything in sports was changing. The reserve clause was going to be overturned so these guys could negotiate collectively.
Starting point is 01:48:30 At the time, players were like in the offseason, they're selling car, used cars, you know, because they weren't making any money. And the owners didn't want to pay them. Steinbrenner was brilliant because he came in and said, pay them, make them stars. You know what I mean? Give them a fortune. Make them stars. We'll make them wear suits. We, make them stars. You know what I mean? Give them a fortune, make them stars. We'll make them wear suits. We'll make them shave their faces. We're going to turn them into these household names and they are going to sell jerseys.
Starting point is 01:48:55 They're going to get people in this. They're going to be, we're going to televise it. He sort of saw the future of it all. That led to Reggie Jackson. Yeah. So it sounds like baseball, swing, or ice storm. I mean, that's the kind of sleazy side of it, but there's a lot of art to it.
Starting point is 01:49:13 It was also the birth of the modern family. It was like divorced families can work. They can break and come back together. And at the time, it was such a taboo. Everyone was humiliated that they were in this like broken family. Truth was they had, you know, at least Fritz and his, and his wife had a really happy family. So I love that story. I've tried to make a couple others. I got one about the chaplain of the 49ers and the Golden State Warriors right now, which we're, we are writing.
Starting point is 01:49:41 Oh, so you're, you're really trying to do, you, you want a sports movie. You want this on your resume. Yeah. I mean, I love sports. I grew up wishing I was a professional athlete and having no shot in hell. So here I am just trying to like, you know, to make a sports movie.
Starting point is 01:49:57 I got to say, I loved your brother's basketball movie. I thought it was really good. And it's been on cable. And first of all, they nailed the basketball movie. I thought it was really good. And it's been on cable. First of all, they nailed the basketball scenes. Because I judge movie first, but then also you have to get the sports scenes right or I
Starting point is 01:50:13 really get upset. And I thought all the basketball scenes in that movie were really authentic. Usually when they make basketball movies, they always fuck those up or there's the one guy in there. What's your favorite sports movie? So it used to be Hoosiers in the natural for a long time, right? Yes.
Starting point is 01:50:33 And now I've seen all these movies so many times that now it's just weird for me. Like probably Rocky III is probably my favorite sport. Just in terms of like if all of them were on at the same time, what would I gravitate to? It might be Rocky III. probably my favorite sport. Just in terms of if all of them were on at the same time, what would I gravitate to? It might be Rocky III. What about you? I think Hoosiers and the Naturals are, I would have said that. Those have got to be the best.
Starting point is 01:50:53 I don't get sick of them. Also, I think Moneyball is rarely talked about, but it's fantastic. Totally agree. I think Moneyball has been the best one of the last 10 years. Warriors kind of growing on me. I think that was really good.
Starting point is 01:51:09 It's an MMA movie. I'm counting it. But then going back, it's funny. Longest Yard came out 46, 47 years ago at this point with Burt Reynolds. I still think that movie's good. That's about as far back as I'd go. But I was watching Rollerball with James Caan probably, I don't know, two, three months ago.
Starting point is 01:51:29 Those 70s sports movies are really fun to rewatch, like North Dallas 40, Bad News Bears I watched with my son. It's so politically incorrect. People would have like a fucking stroke if it happened now. I think probably my favorite inappropriate one is Fast Break with Gabe Kaplan, which I don't even think they're allowed to show on cable. Yeah, he basically, he goes to Vegas. He brings this kind of ragtag group of people
Starting point is 01:51:56 who don't belong in college and tries to turn this basketball program around. So you have how many sports movie possibilities here? Three? I've got this one about earl smith who is the chaplain of the um uh he wrote a book called death row chaplain and it's about his time on um uh working in san quentin i played baseball in san quentin a little bit i played a baseball team and we would go up and play the prisoners in St. Quentin. This guy started that program. And he was, in the 80s, he went
Starting point is 01:52:28 and got a, he was shot six times in his face and neck when he was a young man. And he was in a coma. And he came out of the coma. He decided to sort of get his, go straight, stop dealing drugs and stop gangbanging and stuff and go become, go to seminary, become
Starting point is 01:52:44 a chaplain and he and he went to san quentin at a time when that prison was in terrible terrible shape uh and he showed up there and he and he was hoping that he was going to save some people um and he was frustrated no one was really he couldn't get traction with any of the guys there he felt very he felt like he was not helping anyone and then he decided to start a baseball team inside the prison as a way of bringing people from different gangs together it worked and it's lasted until now they still have the team there the organization um it was interracial it was uh it was everything that people said it wouldn't it couldn't possibly be. And he then left St. Quentin,
Starting point is 01:53:27 and he went on to work for 49ers and Warriors. That sounds promising. It's great. And so that's in the works. You know, best prison sports movie ever? Tell me. Jericho Mile. Richard Pryor. Jericho Mile. Richard Pryor.
Starting point is 01:53:45 Jericho Mile. Michael Mann's first movie. Guy, Peter Strauss is a guy, I think it's on Amazon and I promise anyone listening,
Starting point is 01:53:56 you will not regret running the Jericho Mile. Peter Strauss is in prison and he runs around the track every day and somebody kind of sees him and is like, wait a second,
Starting point is 01:54:04 that guy's going pretty fast. This coach, bring him in. They're like, he could probably actually qualify for the Olympics here. But you got to do it on a professional track. But he's not allowed to leave because he murdered somebody. The inmates come together. They build him a track so he can try to qualify. I won't spoil the ending, but it's fucking great.
Starting point is 01:54:24 Michael Mann's first movie led to Thief, led to everything else after that. That was it. It was a TV movie. So Brian Dennehy's in it. Brian Dennehy, all these different people. What leading actor sports movie performance are you the most jealous of
Starting point is 01:54:39 and wish you had been cast in instead? Moneyball? Moneyball's a good part. Yeah, Moneyball's a great part. I mean, Redford was like, you know, in his 40s playing a kid who's like 16 or something.
Starting point is 01:54:52 They used some good shadows in the early Glenn Close scenes. It's like darker. So maybe he could be cast as that. I don't think that would go over these days anymore, but he pulls it off. He's the legend, the greatest.
Starting point is 01:55:10 What else? I wrote a review of when I was writing for ESPN.com when Damon did that rugby movie, Invictus, and the guy that he played was like this mountain of a guy. He was like six foot five. And I was like, Damon's like five, nine. He's playing this huge guy. And David emailed me.
Starting point is 01:55:29 He's like, I'm five foot 11 motherfuckers. Like half joking, but half serious. I'll tell you right now, he's joking by about three and a half inches. That's how much he's joking. But it's true,
Starting point is 01:55:41 man. It's hard to find actors, all these athletes. And these, you come with these cross, these great sports stories. And the guy's huge to find actors all these athletes and these you come with these across these great sports stories and the guy's huge and actors are all five three and i don't know why so i want to do the josh hamilton story i wrote a script yeah great story the kid he was like junior in high school and he was six five you know 210 pounds he was just like, just a bizarrely like big athletic dude at a very early age. So hard to cast that one. That's a, I love that story. It just kind of went south. The movie ends when he gets back into baseball. He, you know, he wins the home run derby. He's, he, the, this is a guy who had been thrown out of major league
Starting point is 01:56:25 baseball for three strikes rule. You know, he violated the substance abuse rules. They, they threw him out for good and then they let him back in. Um, beautiful story, um, about redemption, but then sort of his life then sort of fell apart a little bit after that. Uh, so it's, he almost had to make it right when he was redeemed. Yeah. Here's what we don't need anymore of boxing movies. I think we're good for about eight more years.
Starting point is 01:56:54 Yeah. It seems like every great actor, they feel like they have to do one. You've got to put that notch on your belt that you got in amazing shape. I'm in the best shape of my life. I trained with this guy for three months and I did it. And I played like Rocky Marciano or something.
Starting point is 01:57:11 I'm good with those. The whole time they're just thinking about the poster, you know. Totally. And how ripped they're going to be. Yeah. We're good. And meanwhile, on the flip side, like there's been like barely any hockey movies, which I don't understand.
Starting point is 01:57:22 Like Slapshot came out in 1977 and it's still the godfather. It's like nobody's even made a run at Slapshot since. There's been a lot of basketball movies, but they're almost always like the coach trying to save the kind of ragtag group of whatever. At least Ben's movie flipped it where the guy had his own problems. Football has been a mess, but you know, there's this sweet spot. I'm going to say like that 91 and 93, like a movie like Rudy, which I think was 93, which I think Rudy's really good. I think Rudy's held up even though the real Rudy is super annoying. I wish they just made more of those. Maybe now we're in the streaming era, maybe
Starting point is 01:58:00 Netflix, Amazon, those places, it's like 20 million. You get a sports movie and everyone's going to see it. Well, you know, soccer. I mean, so now people worry so much about selling their movies overseas and they say, ah, no one cares about baseball overseas. No one cares about American football overseas. You know, but soccer, you know, there was a story I really loved.
Starting point is 01:58:22 I wanted to make about a kid who was a refugee in Africa. And he played, he was living in his refugee camp. And all he was, they realized he was great at soccer very quickly. And they kept sort of like, you know, bumping him up, traveling him around and playing in other camps. And the whole time he was just looking for his parents because he was an orphan he ended up being uh finally the playing in some like un game and then the galaxy spotted him and they brought him to the united states and he still could hadn't found his family uh and then he put himself through school in the u.s and then he went back to africa and he found his mom really beautiful story that's one you might be able to tell now but you're right people there's
Starting point is 01:59:04 also a kind of irreverence in a lot of sports movies that like right now doesn't doesn't fly call it political incorrectness or irreverence there's a certain you know thing that um uh it gets tricky and um yeah i don't know hockey that's why i watch a lot of the 70s 80s ones with my son who's now 13 like his one of his favorites and one of mine too is Bad News Bears of Breaking Training, the second one, when they steal the van and drive to the Astrodome. And it's like a bunch of 13 year olds. It's just like, it was just never happened now, but it's just fun to kind of relive those. But I think you're right with like the casting part is why so many of these stories can't
Starting point is 01:59:42 happen. Like Hakeem Olajuwon, his story is amazing. It's a hundred percent a movie. Like he's playing soccer in Nigeria and somebody sees how good his feet are and they convert him to basketball. Comes over here, he's at the University of Houston. But like, how do you cast that movie? He's this seven foot gazelle.
Starting point is 02:00:00 You're not finding an actor, you know, at least like Ali is about as far as you could push it when they got Will Smith. And even that, it was like the Ali shadow hung over. Ali was such like an indelible character. It was hard to even think of somebody playing him in a movie. Yeah. I mean, I got this theory that anyone can be an actor. People always, you know, we've worshipped for a while now sort of movie stars and as it's sort of it's a rare, a rare talent.
Starting point is 02:00:24 And there's some people like will smith who are just incredibly watchable and likable and charming and talented but i i there are other people who have never been in anything and they're just amazing in movies and i think it's because it's the director knows how to to help them along and make them make it work so and it might be that you know you just have to find a guy who's seven feet tall and have a really, really good director and just you get a fantastic hemological story. Well, the Safdie brothers did it with Uncut Gems where it was supposed to be Embiid and then he couldn't do it.
Starting point is 02:00:59 And they got KG and they I thought KG was really good in that movie, whatever. They tapped into his charisma and made it work. And I really felt like it was, he was acting. It was good. Yeah. Well, I support your quest to come up with,
Starting point is 02:01:14 um, with the next great sports movie. I'm always worried. We're just going to run out. Last thing I'll mention before we go. Um, my wife is a big crier. So we watched this movie,
Starting point is 02:01:24 your new movie last night, but I didn't tell her what it was about, and she had no idea. And sometimes when she cries during a movie, I'll always look over, and I'll just start laughing, and then she'll get mad, but she'll be crying. So I didn't look at her the whole movie. And then it ended, and I looked at her, and
Starting point is 02:01:40 I could hear her sniffling, but it wasn't major breakdown. And then I looked at her and she was like, and it just freaking waterworks. It just all hit her at the end for some reason. It's an emotional movie. I think what's interesting about a movie like this in this day and age, in a movie theater, everybody tries to be kind of cool.
Starting point is 02:02:02 You're around all these strangers. You're going to all these strangers. You kind of, you're going to rein yourself in when you're home. You just kind of, you are who you are, right? I thought it was a pretty gut-wrenching movie. And well done.
Starting point is 02:02:15 Thanks, man. I don't cry though. I'm a cyborg. I was just, I basically just laugh at my wife when she starts crying. But even I was touched. What's wrong with you?
Starting point is 02:02:23 I don't know. I'm a kid of divorce. You know, we're all dead inside. Good luck with that movie. Thanks, buddy. Have you ever had Ham on your show? Oh, yeah. He's been on, huh?
Starting point is 02:02:38 Yeah. What, you get along with him? I was just thinking about who could play people. Yeah, he plays on my baseball team. He plays. So him and I He's been on a few times One of the things The last time he was on
Starting point is 02:02:52 We were talking about how his sports movie Mortality rate was about to run out Because he's like a really good baseball player And it's like you You've got Well I mean for an actor You've got to You've got to do this now.
Starting point is 02:03:06 Like you're going to hit a point where it's not realistic anymore that you're like the, you know, Dennis Quaid and the rookie. Yeah. Where Dennis Quaid was probably like 49 in real life and it was really pushing it, but he was playing a guy who was like 39 in real life.
Starting point is 02:03:19 So it was okay. But I think with him, he's got like a year left. No, he doesn't. He's passed. You think he's passed? It's expired. Yeah. It's expired. I think he Ham, Ham's got like a year left. No, he doesn't. He's passed. You think he's passed? It's expired.
Starting point is 02:03:26 Yeah, it's expired. I think he did Million Dollar Arm. Yeah, I produced that with him. That's how we got to know each other. No way. You produced that movie? Yeah. Huge movie on airplanes.
Starting point is 02:03:36 Thanks for bringing that to me, buddy. Huge, huge. I appreciate it. Good looking out. Thanks for bringing me that. Everybody loved that movie, and then people just saw it on demand and on airplanes. And it's just like one of those things. It went on the weekend against some other monster movie.
Starting point is 02:03:52 And it just kind of went away. It wasn't that good. Pretty decent. It was like 15 minutes too long. I'm kidding. It was great. It was great. It looked really beautiful too.
Starting point is 02:04:02 I loved it being in India. I thought it was 15 minutes too long. My big argument at the time was like, if I'm taking my son to this, it can't be more than two hours. Yeah. Like my son, this is a movie that like an eight-year-old kid could see, right?
Starting point is 02:04:16 And no eight-year-old kid wants to be in a theater for two hours and five minutes. Yeah, you got to get through that story a little bit faster. That's true. But Hammy could do like a guy who's gone to fantasy camp. Like an older man who goes down to fantasy camp
Starting point is 02:04:34 and rediscovers. Ham had one good year when he played with us. He hit 400. That was his best year by far. Really? So what is this baseball team? Can you tell? Is this an LA baseball team of Hollywood people? And it's like fast pitch? It's not Hollywood people.
Starting point is 02:04:49 It's fast pitch. It's not Hollywood people. It just happens to have me and him on the team. But mostly it's made up of like guys who are real athletes. I started it about 10 years ago. It was like the LA Park and Rec League. And we were awful. We got beat there.
Starting point is 02:05:04 We put the, we got a little bit better and like third year in we won that thing guys wanted we won la city there then people wanted to step it up to the wood bat league which we did wood bat league jesus oh yeah and um we we got demolished uh we have not yet won that uh league. But we've had some good showings. The first season, we lost. You know, most games we were mercied. You know, it was like we play like seven innings. We usually lost by, you know, 14 runs after the fifth.
Starting point is 02:05:36 And they just called it off or something. Second season, though, we did a lot better. And my batting average hovers around 100. What position are you? Third base. So a hundred, I'm trying to think of what Red Sox player. No one has ever had that bad an average and stayed in the game. Terrible average third baseman.
Starting point is 02:05:56 I don't know who that would be. Uh, I had one year where I hit 300, but I only played like three games maybe. But Hammy's done, Hammy's better. He plays first and he did have one year where he hit over 400. I think all that is behind both of us now. But next time you have an idea for a sports movie, don't bring it to John. Call me up. I'm going to bring it to you. And if you ever want to start a triple-A baseball team in the Hollywood area
Starting point is 02:06:26 that we call the Hollywood stars I'm in, I've always felt like that idea could work. Put it in Van Nuys, 15,000-seat stadium. I just feel like people would go. I love it. It's not going to matter that it's 108 degrees in July. People are still going to like it. They're still going to have a good time.
Starting point is 02:06:42 That's part of the fun. What was that team? Who was that guy who started that really kind of rough around the edges club, like minor league club in Portland or somewhere? He had a book. There's a book written about them.
Starting point is 02:06:55 That's a pretty good story. I don't know that one. Well, good luck with your movie. It was good seeing you. Thanks, man. Good luck to Tom Brady, and thanks for coming on. Okay. Thanks for having me. All right. Thanks to Casey Affleck. Thanks to Peter Schrager, the good luck charm.
Starting point is 02:07:10 Hopefully the million dollar picks will take it to the finish line. We'll be back Sunday night on this podcast. Talking with cousin Sal and breaking down the big game. I might drag my dad into this at the end of the pod to see what his feelings were. My dad still hasn't landed on the Brady thing. I've never seen anyone more tortured by anything that's this stupid in my life. But we'll be back Sunday night. Enjoy the game.
Starting point is 02:07:34 Enjoy the weekend. Stay safe. See you on Sunday. On the way.

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