The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Curious Clippers and More NBA Head-Scratchers With Rob Mahoney. Plus, a Complicated Week 18 in the NFL With Peter Schrager.

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Rob Mahoney to discuss how hard it is to get a feel for NBA teams at this point in the season; they discuss the Nuggets, Clippers, Cavaliers, Warriors, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Mavericks, Celtics, Bucks, Suns, and more (1:35). Then Bill talks with Peter Schrager of NFL Network and Fox Sports about the encouraging news regarding Bills DB Damar Hamlin, all of the interconnected Week 18 scenarios, favorite NFL matchups, and more (39:28). Finally, Bill gives out his Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 18 (1:27:47). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Rob Mahoney and Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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That's your hint. Stay tuned for that. Coming up on this podcast, Rob Mahoney and I are going to talk about a disappointing Thursday doubleheader that kind of personifies where we are in the NBA right now and how disjointed everything is. We're talking about Kawhi Leonard, favorite teams in the West and a whole bunch of topics. And then Peter Schrager, as always, coming on Thursday to talk about the NFL. And it's been quite a week to talk about the NFL. To say the least, that is all next. First, our friends from Pro Jam. All right, taping this part of the podcast, it is 8.30 Pacific time.

We thought we'd be taping around 9.30 Pacific time. The Nuggets and Clippers foiled our plans. This was blowout Thursday. Rob Mahoney, I was very excited about these games tonight. Celtics, Mavs, Luka was on a hot streak. Nuggets, Clips. Are the Clips where they looking? The Nuggets are

my favorite West team. Two blowouts. What does this mean? What point in the regular season are we at right now? Oh, great question. I think we're at the destabilization point. The league has been so topsy-turvy. Obviously, there's been a lot of talk this week and over the last couple weeks about Donovan Mitchell scores 71 points. There's like a 40-point game every other day at this point. But on a macro level, teams are sliding all around the standings. Up is down, down is up. We can't get a feel for who any of these teams are. During halftime, the TNT crew was talking about the Clippers and the fact that because you don't play Kawhi and Paul George on a regular basis, whether injury or management or whatever,

it's just hard to get a feel for who you are as a team. I would argue there's a lot of teams who are playing their guys who aren't faring much better as far as knowing who they are. It's just been very difficult this season to get a read on almost anybody. Yeah. And there's so much offense, which I talked about on my Tuesday pod. I know you guys talked about it on Ringer NBA show as well. There's so much offense. There's so much volatility with the threes. And then there are these blown leads that we're seeing that like last night, the Bucks-Raptors

game, the Bucks are up 12 with like 72 seconds left and the Raptors tied the game. Like that has never happened before. So no lead feels safe. No game feels both safe or unsafe. And you end up with situations like tonight where the Celtics are just killing the Mavericks. And yet I'm watching third quarter nervous as a Celtic fan

because I've watched too many games where somebody can piece it back together. But just from a statement of the West today where you had the Mavericks kind of stink on TNT and then the Clippers, I told you before we hopped on today, I was really excited for this Clippers-Nuggets game because I think the Nuggets have the best team.

I really wanted to see what was going to happen with this Clippers team. And it really feels like they shit the bed. And now I'm thinking like, I'm even more resolved where I was before where I just think the Nuggets are the safest bet in the West, especially when you consider the two trades or the one trade and the buyout guy they can get. I just like their foundation the most. Their floor to me is the highest. I wish I could come on here and disagree with you about that.

I've been increasingly coming around to the Nuggets and especially as you look over the course of the season, they're a team that has a pretty clear trajectory, a pretty clear arc as far as they do feel like they're building. They do feel like they're gathering momentum. Take even this game, you know, a complete

blowout. But part of the reason it's a blowout is because the Nuggets' second unit went out there. A unit that earlier in the season was a total disaster. And I'm sure they will have bad games going forward too. But like Bones Highland looked great. You know, like Zeke Nagy has had great minutes and great

sense for them as a backup five. Like, they've been able to piece things together along the way. What about my guy, Chanchar? I'm not going to give Chanchar too much credit. Blocko Chanchar, good job.

Tonight and tonight only. Like that guy. He can be a good player sometimes and a very frustrating player sometimes. No, that is true. But, you know, and I say that in context of, obviously, you have Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

who are coming back from their respective injuries. And it's like, those guys are only going to get better. And the fact that this is where the Nuggets are right now, showing us that they can just wax a potential contender, at least at this stage in the season, it's hard to argue with that. Yeah. One thing I like to look at at this point of the year anyway is,

can you survive if your best guy isn't scoring? Or if your best guy's not having a good game? We saw with the Mavericks tonight, if Luka's off, or Luka's banged up, or he's not shooting well, and they're playing a good team, it's pretty much hopeless, unless they make like 20 threes. There's really no plan B

other than let's hope the threes go in. Denver can win these games with Jokic where he had two points at halftime. It was one for five, but it still felt like he was all over the game, which is one of the reasons I'm so high on these guys. They have so much variance in a good way. The Celtics have it a little bit with Tatum and Brown, where it seems like one of those guys is always having a great game and sometimes both. But you saw it tonight, Tatum, triple-double. I didn't love that he was looking at the scoreboard to see if he got the 10th assist. We don't do that with the Celtics,

Jason Tatum. We don't care about triple doubles. We care about wins. You're above fraudulent triple doubles. Yeah, we're above that stuff. But they'll have the, you know, the next night Jalen could have 37. And I think as a combo, one of them are always on. Milwaukee Giannis has kind of, yeah. Did you notice, I don't know if I've heard this anywhere else, but a friend of mine like a week ago was like, there's a lot of talk right now about Jokic, Luka, Giannis. It's like kind of quiet on the Giannis front. I could see him ripping off some games and then Giannis ripped off all those games. I do wonder, Giannis' radar, we always think of him as this guy who doesn't say that much, nice guy, just pretty even keel. But I do think his tentacles are out with that stuff, where he's like, oh, they're talking about this guy a

lot. They're talking about that guy. Do you believe in that theory with him? No one is above it. There's not a single NBA player who is above it. And Giannis is one of those guys who is about all the right things, and yet he's prideful. He knows how good he is. He knows the attention that other players get. And more importantly, I think he knows the state his team is in. They're not giving him a lot of help

at the moment, especially with Drew and Chris in the position that they are physically. So there's no doubt that by the end of the season, he's going to be a formidable force. The Bucs are going to be a really good team and a tough out. But at the moment,

he's going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting like that in ways that, as you mentioned, Jokic, for example, just does not with the way his team is set up. Yeah, and Embiid's another one. Now, maybe now that they have everybody back, they can sneak by without some Embiid games. But Embiid was in this situation

where he was having monster games over and over again. Cleveland is a team that I think has the kind of variance we're talking about in a good way. Garland can go off one night. Mitch can go off one night. They can get some defense.

They might get the random Kyrus-Libert game. But I do like how their position position too. And then you look on the West, all these miles that the Warriors are accumulating without Curry, I think have been weirdly valuable for them. How so? How do you mean valuable? They're just getting,

they're basically forcing these dudes to play in these positions that they're not going to have to do when Curry comes back. But I think they found out some stuff about Jordan Poole, both good and bad, in the last week. And I think in the last three games, he's had at least one massive screw-up in the last minute of each game. But on the other hand, he's had the ball a lot for better and worse. And when he goes back, he gets demoted to being the sixth man who plays 25 minutes a game. I actually think all the experience he got was good. I think it was good for Clay too.

I thought Clay really found his footing the last 15, 20 games and not, not having the Steph security blanket. I think sometimes it's a good thing. Yes. Clay has looked really good pool. I agree. It's just being like force fed vitamins effectively in terms of like getting

these high usage reps. Yeah. The guy I worry about is Draymond. This is a lot of responsibility and a lot of mileage and a lot of wear and tear that you're putting on a guy that is indispensable to your team. And yes, he's not the one

who we think about when we say, okay, obviously Jordan Poole is the one picking up a lot of the scoring while Steph is out or Clay is popping off or even some of the bench guys are having really good nights here and there, but the load Draymond has to carry to keep that team functional right now is what I worry about.

And he's... He gets his 7, 9, and 8. He's the weirdest box scores. It's almost like... I always felt that LeBron should be the 27, 7, and 7. You know, we go, oh, he got a triple double. I just feel like you get a LeBron, it's a 27-7-7. The Draymond is like an 8-8-8 or like a 7-7-7 or something

where you just hit three of the things, but you still have single-digit points. If you look at the West, Memphis had a big week. Nice little run where they won the three and four days. Adams and Triple J got going. Triple J had a big game today. Monster game. They're starting to show some signs.

Still feels like they probably have a trade to make, but I said on Tuesday, I still have it. If you're telling me who's going to make the finals, my money would be on Denver and Golden State with Memphis lurking as the third team and then a drop-off. Who do you have? Who do you have as your top two

and then your lurker? I agree Denver is one of the top two. I think Golden State is the other one by default. They're still just way too good when Steph is out there. For lurker, I got to admit, I'm compelled by the Pelicans. Wow.

We're still learning a lot about them. Obviously, we haven't seen them at full strength, basically, at all this season, but Zion has been so good. And more importantly, when I think about Memphis, I think about them matched up with those other two teams. The way Jokic inverts the floor is very

stressful for Memphis' defense and what he's been able to create for other guys and like I just think about Aaron Gordon for example a guy who's been totally activated this season just feasting based on his strength even against a defender as good as Jaron Jackson Jr. just like by powering his way inside like I had that vision in my mind of

even a defense as great as Memphis just having a really hard time with everything that Denver can throw at them the Pel Pelicans are just like, they have physicality. Wait, can you go back to the Grizzly thing for a second for the Gordon point? So what would they need before we talk about the Pelicans? In terms of Memphis? Yeah, because like Verno's pretty convinced they have the assets and the willingness to make a trade because this is Ja's last rookie salary cap year before it jumps. And assets and the willingness to make a trade because this is

Jha's last rookie salary cap year before it jumps. And if you're going to make the move, you make it now. This is a competitive advantage for them. So what do they need? Who is it? Is it like an Ananobi type? I mean, pretty much every team in the league could use an Ananobi type, right? But like a defensive swingman who's just a physical, can shoot some threes. Maybe he's your third scorer, but he brings Mikael Bridges, like those type of guys. Is that what they need?

Yeah. I mean, I like, if anything, the Ananobi model even better than a Mikael Bridges type model, just in terms of someone who's more of a 3-4-5 defender than they are necessarily like a 2-3-4 defender, if that makes sense. Just with a little more brawn who can hold their own in those kinds of matchups. It's a weird

thing to consider about a league that is so perimeter-oriented that you might want more brawn at this stage of things. But when you think about who the breakout stars are right now, especially on the younger side of the bracket, it's guys like Ja. It's guys like Zion. It's very straight- at the basket oriented. I want as much physical resistance as possible, not just in terms of length and activity, but the guys who are not going to get bumped off

their spots. All right, back to the Pelicans. So make the case, other than that Trey Murphy continues to be the wild card. I Was not expecting my guy Herb Jones to basically get shut out by the amount of good swingmen that that team has. I think some of it is just the matter of, we've seen them in all of these improvisational forms with players out of the lineup, and in particular, Brandon Ingram out of the lineup,

and just making their way, just trying to fit, just plugging guys into holes. And they've consistently found ways to at least make it work on a somewhat regular basis. And having all those tools, having all those options behind what still might be one of the most unstoppable

physical forces in the league in Zion is pretty compelling to me at this stage. And I think that has as much to do with the Pelicans as it does looking at the rest of the West and saying, what else is there right here now? What else am I supposed to be sold on and really confident in when the Clippers are getting blown out

by 40 points on national TV and the Grizzlies, while great, might still be a move away. They might just be a team that's kind of in that position and until we see it, I'll believe that trade when it happens and we can talk then. Yeah, you think with the West,

Jokic is just the matchup nightmare night after night after night. There's really no way to attack him. He'll just be like, oh, you're doing it this way, then I'll do this. These, oh, you're doing this, then I'll do this, guys.

Luka's like that. Curry's a version of that where he's just so hard to play and how they use him that there's just no real way to be like, we're stopping this. We got this. Memphis is the only one who's like the conventional old school. Here's what we have.

We have a bunch of shooters. We have this guy who's going to attack the basket. And the more physical resistance you can put against that guy, the better off you might be. I think they need a little more variance, especially with the bench scoring. I keep trying to think about them in a playoff series.

Let's say Triple J has one of his 3-for-10 games. Dylan Brooks is being weird. They're down 3-2 in a series. Who is your variable guy? Who's your guy out of nowhere? Who's your guy that put up 20 in the first half

that I wasn't expecting? And those guys are available. Like even if they went a little smaller than the Ananobi like all-in kind of trade, they're still like those Jordan Crawford type guys that might be available, right? Especially if Utah decides to be a seller. You mean Jordan Clarkson, you mean?

I mean, Jordan Clarkson, my bad. That's the second time I've done that. I'm turning to Eddie Edelman. Jordan Clarkson, yes. Those guys are available. I think where it gets tricky is balancing all of the constituencies you need to accommodate in Memphis.

Memphis is getting a little crowded. Obviously, you want the ball with Ja as much as possible. If you're not trading Dylan Brooks, he's going to have the ball whenever he wants to effectively. Might be a reason to trade him. I think a pretty decent one. And we're seeing lots of reasons this season why Jaron Jackson is a guy who you want to facilitate

his growth as an offensive player. And that goes far beyond him being the spot-up guy while Ja drives. He has a lot of versatility and variety to his offensive game that's just starting to bloom. And we've seen them, since Desmond Bain has been back, he hasn't quite looked as good as he did earlier in the season.

And you want to keep cultivating that. A guy who is a 20-point scorer at stages in this season, how do you take that away? And yet, it's like like how do you take that away and yet it's like how do you have all of that and bring in another mouth to feed for an offense that as it stands is like pretty good

but not great yeah we were talking during the Dallas game how many guys on Dallas would crack the Celtics rotation a very bleak thought I spun that at you and you just got bummed out. You became sad.

Luka obviously would crack it. Finney Smith would probably get the Hauser minutes. Dinwiddie, I just don't think bumps White, Smart, Brogdon, and who am I missing? White, Smart, Brogdon and

who am I missing? White, Smart, Brogdon. Yeah. I don't think he bumps any of those guys. Christian Wood I don't think plays. Now you could argue maybe he gets the some Horford minutes. I don't know. I just don't I don't think the Celtics would want him or use him.

They don't really need what he does at all. You know? Bullock, Bullock, no. No. Tim Hardaway would be the other option

if I'm giving away the 15 Hauser minutes. Dwight Powell, no. Lincoln, no. And Bertans, no. That's pretty bleak if you're Dallas because that's

one of the best teams in the league and you have one and a half guys that can play for them. Some of that is just straight up like talent for talent. The Celtics are one of the more stacked rosters in the league. Some of it is just the styles of play are so polar opposite in terms of what they're asking of those guys. I think you could honestly do a similar exercise on the other way, where it's like Dallas is better with Dinwiddie than they are with even Brogdon in that role, right? If you were asking Bro like Dallas is better with Dinwiddie than they are with even Brogdon

in that role. If you were asking Brogdon to do what Dinwiddie is doing, basically iso-create and bulk pick and roll when Luka's out of the game, it's not really his strong suit either. So it's just what those two teams are asking of their players are totally different. And I think we're seeing

some of the limitations of the Dallas model, certainly. They're not going to look great when they're having multiple rotation players out with injury, and they're certainly not going to look great when Luka also sprains his ankle in the first half and isn't moving so well. But the Celtics just have a lot of fail-safes. They have a lot

of stuff built into the way they play where they're going to punish you. If you sprain your ankle in the first half, there's nowhere for you to hide against the Celtics. And that's not because they're going to ISO you. They you sprain your ankle in the first half, there's nowhere for you to hide against the Celtics. And that's not because they're going to ISO you. They're going to put you in the blender. They're going to keep you moving. They're going to engage you and force you to move

and really challenge your mobility and your awareness and your state. That's hard. That's hard to keep up with. It's what makes the Celtics one of the more formidable teams in the league right now and what keeps Dallas kind of searching over and over for answers

and basically begging Lukadev 60-point nights to bail them out of some of these games. What also is what makes the Celtics so frustrating? 27-12. 6-7 in their last 13. They have 16 10-plus wins, which

they're one of those teams, like, if you're going to bet them, you should just bet, like, the double figures win for them because 66% of the time that's going to happen there there's now this is mostly coming from my dad so i'm not going to say celtics fan base is freaking him out but my dad's freaking out a little about the coach so we had our first economist ma do you think he'd ever come back conversation we kind of drove it yeah we test do you think he'd ever come back conversation? We kind of drove it. Yeah. We test drove it a couple of days ago after that. Okay. See game when they lose by,

you know, 35 to no SGA. We just, we gave it a test drive. It didn't really take, but we felt like we had to do it. Um, he's a rookie coach.

And I think the one thing that drives me nuts about him is the no time out thing. Just because I call me crazy, but I just like when coaches do what works for the other coach that are really good, like Spolstra or Steve Kerr, the coaches that, Rick Carlisle, the coaches that have just won a lot of stuff. And usually they call timeouts when the game's slipping away, they have some sort of sense of, whoa, whoa, hold on, hold on. Let's stop this. I don't like the direction this is going. And he's trying to invent some new way of doing this where it's like, no, I'm actually going to trust my guys. And the guys are like, we like it. And I'm like, I can point to 10 examples this season where this

was an absolute catastrophe, like the Lakers game in LA. So I know he's a rookie coach, but I do sometimes I do worry it's like having the sub. He's not inventing something new here. This is a very Phil Jackson thing to do. Phil Jackson would still call timeouts. This guy will not call them.

Just zero timeouts. He won't do it. I will say for most teams, I agree. If you just went to the NBA Finals, you should probably be able to bail yourself out. I think that's a reasonable expectation. So you're pro no timeout. Okay.

I'm not pro no timeout. I'm pro character building lessons. And sometimes you got to take it on the chin a little bit. Well, I hope when we get to the playoffs, he's going to have some sort of feel. I still feel like the coaches that know how to use those timeouts as a weapon when

they have a lead, it always works. I'll never forget the Pacers-Celtics series in 05 when the Celtics had most of the best guys and Carlisle, he would get this lead and then he would just protect it. It was almost like watching a soccer team

that was up a goal, just figuring out how to like protect the ball. So I still feel like Tom Elsmeter. I'm not going to panic yet about Joe, but I did have the first conversation about it. It's on record. Yeah. Wait, let's take a break

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This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. Western teams. The Suns are still the favorite on FanDuel, but I think that's just because there's been money bet on that. Denver has moved up. It was 7-1. It was 6-1. Now they're plus 440.

And they should be the favorites. Gold State's plus 460. Clippers plus 470, Memphis plus 550, and then the Pelicans have moved up to nine to one. And that's really it. Those are the only teams that I think are in the mix. I guess circling back to the Clippers for a second, should that team be in the mix? And not just because of the continuity stuff of not being able to get these guys playing all the time, but just like, is this working? You know, like I think they have too many guys, my too many guys theory, which Daryl Morris scolded me on when you're in Houston. I was just like, you have too many guys. He's like, that's ridiculous. It's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. How can you have too many guys? It's like, well, there's 240 minutes in an NBA game and you can only play five people at a time.

And if you have 11 guys who love to play, not awesome. And I do feel that with the Clippers. They don't seem like a happy team watching them lately. And then on top of it, you don't know where Kawhi or Paul are coming from. I also don't love their guards. And I think guards are the most important they've ever been with the way the style of the game

and the way the leagues have gone. And I would say they're below average on the guard standpoint. What else do you like or what else do you not like about this Clipper team? I mean, they're confounding. And some of it is what you're talking about. On paper, they do have too many guys. And you could see that from the preseason perspective. I wrote about this for The Ringer, about having the ability to feel through the season and figure out which guys fit and which ones don't. You can make trades, you can consolidate, there should be lots of options available to you.

And yet I don't feel like we've really had like a, a very like clear answer of like who their preferred players are. You know, there's, who's your five. There's been stints when like, you know, Robert Covington,

who could be an important part of this team is just like totally out of the rotation entirely. Obviously, they've had to do all kinds of things just to accommodate not having Kawhi or not having Paul George at any given point in time or not having John Wall at any given point in time. He's been managed a lot this season, too, in terms of his health situation.

So it's really hard to get a feel for that. I think what makes me pause about the too-many- many guys thing being a problem necessarily is that by and large their defense has been good. And that's where I would expect if there were a too many guys problem it would be guys like yes, they might hunt shots. Yes, there

may be offensive problems. But defensively if the attitudes are bad, that's going to show in the bottom line. They're not going to guard if they're not bought in on the idea. And the fact that they're still pretty solvent offensively gives me some hope that there's at least

a level of buy-in there and a level of like, okay, we have the pieces we need, we just need to figure it out. That said, there's a lot to figure out. There's just so much more that the Clippers have to sort out between now and the start of the playoffs

than any other team in the league. And they're not giving us much reason beyond just the talent on paper to be confident in that theory at all. Who is your favorite five? Would Zubats be in it? I think Zubats is in it.

And Kawhi Paul, obviously. I think Batum is in it. I think he's a pretty important connector for them. You need that ball movement. Beyond that, it really is, I think, a night-by-night thing. Norm Powell is so up and down in terms of his shooting. I could see you wanting the defense of a Terrence Mann

or just that chaotic energy on a certain night. Honestly, if I had to say, which Clipper have I been most impressed with this season? Luke Kennard has been surprisingly pretty good. I was going to say say he's my fifth guy for that five-some. We agreed on the first four.

I didn't think I would get here. I think Zubats and Luke Kennard. Yeah, I'm with you. I think he's played really well. And the stats back it up, too. You look at... They only have two lineups that have played more than 100 minutes so far.

And the Paul George, Morris, Jackson, Zubats, Conard, they're plus 10.8 per 100. And then the other one has Kawhi in it with Morris. The Morris part, that's another one where it's like, do you really need Morris too

with all the stuff you have? I don't think they built the right team for 2023. I think if this was 2017, Interesting. you know, where it was a little less guard oriented,

I just think the guards are so important now. And I don't think the John Wall thing has really worked for them because, yeah, I want shooting around those guys and teams just play

five feet off, you know. So what do you see as being the differentiating points between 2017 NBA and today's NBA that you need to accommodate? The pace and how important guards are. And I think there's just more

good guards now. We have, every year we've just added Garland, Halliburton, Trey Young, all these dudes. Like Brunson's emerged as a guy. You go on down the line and even the guys who are young and aren't really anything yet, like Jade and Ivy, he's still 20 years old and fast and can have the ball

and can go by people. Indiana has Nemhard. We just didn't have guys like that six years ago. These dudes that can just go by people. And I do feel like a lot of these times I'm watching these games and it's coming down to the guards. There's the rare exceptions, obviously, but you see these games sometimes where it's like

Darren Fox versus Ja. And it's just like, it almost feels like tennis. Wait, I had one more thing before we go. Did you see this Kawhi? They ran this Kawhi stat today that he has a 743

winning percentage. Overall? In the regular season. And then the playoffs, it's like 80. But I locked this away a while ago because I was always fascinated by the winning percentage stat and I never understood why it wasn't a bigger deal. Regular season

and playoffs combined, there's only four guys ever and I don't know if Kawhi qualifies for this because I haven't seen the combo stats, there's only four guys ever, and I don't know if Kawhi qualifies for this because I haven't seen the combo stats. There's only four guys ever who are 700 and higher. Magic Johnson, Bill Russell, Tim Duncan, and Larry Bird. Wow. And Magic was the highest at 728.

That's regular season and playoffs combined. So I think Kawhi is close, but it did make me think like, I think it's the strangest career of all the great players, right? He was the best guy in 2019 for our title team. He was also a finals MVP in a series that had LeBron on the other team.

Every year his teams have been good, but yet he's missed like crazy amounts of time too. It's almost like the, it's like the parallel would be Bill Walton if Bill Walton played more 45 years ago, but there's really missed like crazy amounts of time too. It's almost like the, it's like the parallel would be Bill Walton. If Bill Walton played more 45 years ago, but there's really nobody like him. I think he's going to retire and we're going to have a lot of trouble putting the career in their perspective.

It was like, was he, he kind of was as good as like he was on that LeBron level for a couple years, but he couldn't sustain really any of it. But yet, I still feel like maybe he's on that level.

I don't know. He's the most confounding guy in the league to me right now. He's going to be the ultimate like, do you value peak or longevity guy? Right?

Like, if you purely value who is this guy at his absolute best, he could probably go toe-to-toe with a lot of the greatest players in NBA history.

Ceiling-wise, yeah. Yeah, ceiling-wise. It's just, and we may need a third categorization for him because it's not even like peak and longevity there's just like an availability question where you almost can't compare his win percentage stats to those guys just by the sheer number of the games played the sheer consistency of those games played and more importantly what those games mean you know if you are a an every night superstar presence and your team is winning 70 plus percent of its games, that is a franchise altering development. And Kawhi Leonard can still be a franchise altering player.

And he wasn't that for the first four years in San Antonio. It didn't really happen until 2016. No. And I mean, that's a whole nother way in which Kawhi is a phenomenally weird player to consider is you still hear a lot of noise about his exit out of San Antonio and what happened. And he's one of the only players, at least in that superstar position, to be a finals MVP and then just walk away from a championship winning team in the fashion he did in Toronto. Just an incredibly strange case in almost every historical respect. And then you have some pretty crazy what ifs with him too. It's like, what if he doesn't get hurt in 2017

because they've really gotten toe-to-toe with him? What if San Antonio doesn't trade him to Toronto and he goes another direction? What if the Celtics said, fuck it, we'll trade Jalen Brown for a year at Kawhi, we'll see what happens. What if he was a career Indiana pacer and never made it to San Antonio in the first place?

Right, the George Hill trade. That was a good one. Then the Lakers one is the other one where it looked like it was going to be him and LeBron together. And maybe they go get Davis in a year. And instead, that's not how it plays out. Wait, what was the chronology of that? Yeah, Kawhi didn't work out, so then they traded for Davis.

That sounds right. Yeah, but maybe they could have traded for Davis anyway. So you have that. And then with this Clippers thing, you have that one year where it really seemed like they were probably going to win the finals. They seemed like the safest bet in 21. That was when he goes down.

And we end up with Buck's sons. And then we end up with that fork in the road. I forgot to ask you about the sons before we go. Barkley was saying blow it up today on TNT. That was the first time even KOC, who I think is the blow it up GM of the entire world.

I feel like when KOC says blow it up, I'm ready. Hashtag blow it up. I need KOC's approval. Barkley just threw it out there. And I was like, whoa, what would that even look like? And who are you blowing up? Because Booker to me can never be traded. So for the Suns to blow it up, is that Aiton? I don't think Aiton has the kind of trade value to even make that worth it. Is it Mikael Bridges? Are you blowing it up to make a three for one? Or are you blowing it up to just reboot

and throw it away this year? What are you doing? It's not good that you have to ask the question, right? I think that's indicative of where they are. And a lot of that, to me, if you ask what are the fundamental problems with the Phoenix Suns, obviously we know Chris Paul at this stage of his career

is pretty limited in what he can offer you and especially limited when Devin Booker is out. He's not capable of carrying these lineups in the way that he used to. For me, a lot of it falls on Bridges and Aiton. Those are two guys who at this point in their careers, you want to be able to step up into bigger roles

when the situation calls for it. They can kind of do it sometimes. I think Bridges more effectively than Aiden. This has been a really dispiriting season of watching DeAndre Aiden play basketball, to be totally honest with you. And the problem with that is exactly what you outlined.

Everyone in the league knows it. These teams are playing against him. They're seeing him kind of float through some games, not really assert himself, have opportunities where he could be dominant but just doesn't. Everyone in the league is clocking the same things about DeAndre Ayton that we are, and those teams are not

going to give you tons of stuff in a trade for him. That's just really not going to happen. And yet Bridges is the guy you would probably want to hold on to. So I don't know how you navigate that. I was a big Ayton defender. This season's been concerning.

It reminds me of the centers I grew up with in the 80s, like the Joe Bear Carroll type guys where it's like they're getting their stats.

It's fine if you're not actually watching it. If you're watching it, like, there's something slightly missing and it doesn't seem within the team,

it doesn't seem awesome either.. It doesn't seem awesome either, but on the other hand, you know, would he make sense for a team like, uh, like one of, one of the lower level teams, I guess Detroit couldn't do it cause they're trying to tank, but, um, I don't know what they do because they're 2018 and the West is wide open. And I think if, and you have a new owner, by the way, who's, why does he want to blow it up? He wants to go for it. He'd probably like, you know, he's in that mode,

like what Cuban was like in the early 2000s. Let's go, let's trade for Juwan Howard. Let's trade for Antoine Walker. He's probably more privy to that. I think I keep, I've said this a million times in the pot. I'm going to say it again. Them not taking Hal Burton was just a crippling decision. It really was. That's one of the big draft what-ifs we've had in the last 10 years.

Because he was sitting there and he'd already fallen a couple spots where it was like, whoa, why hasn't anyone taken Halliburton yet? And then he lands in that Phoenix spot and they take Jalen Smith who last two years. But even you just think that one decision and they take Jalen Smith who last two years. But even you just think that one decision and they've made some good ones, but that was a bad one. That one decision, it's a completely different scenario right now. They didn't book her in Halliburton. He would change the complexion of their entire team and shout out to Tyrese Halliburton. I mean, but Tyrese Halliburton has become that guy who like there are GMs, assistant GMs, scouts who are going to be up at night for the next five years thinking like, why?

Why couldn't I convince the right people in the room? Even if you were a believer, why couldn't you sell the right people that he was your guy? Because he's proving to be exactly that kind of player, a guy who could be a perfect pivot piece for them. Right. And going from you've been to the NBA Finals, you've been a really good team, you've tried to make this work with, you know, a slightly more veteran core in Phoenix.

Yeah. But now it's time for the Devin Booker, Tyrese Halliburton era. You know, like now we are transitioning to that version of our team. And that would have been a hell of a thing to watch. It's a shame we won't get to see it. Who do you have right now? First team all-NBA. I did this on Tuesday.

Jokic, Tatum, Durant, Luka, and Mitchell. And then I had second team, Embiid, Jalen, Giannis, SGA, and Ja. And I'm already regretting not having Giannis on first team, and I think I have to rethink that. But I, like, does Tatum get bounced then?

Does Durant get bounced? You have two forwards on first team all NBA right now. And this is a fair conversation to have. We're almost at the midway mark. You have two forward spots. Who gets it? It's the ultimate three guys for two spots thing. It's really hard to bump Durant with that, with how incredible he's been as a two-way guy. I don't feel good about it. I would almost say bump Tatum. And I can't believe I'm saying that because I thought Tatum was the MVP. But what Giannis did the last three games,

like I don't know how he's not first team all NBA. I mean, is there any kind of positional negotiation we can do getting Tatum into the guard spot? Like, is there any eligibility there given the murkiness of Boston's rotation? Yeah, I guess you have more flexibility with the Jalen piece than the Tatum piece.

You know, because the only certainties are Jokic and Luka. And you have those three forward spots. And then that other guard spot, that could be Mitchell, that could be Jalen Brown, that could be SGA,

that could be Ja, like who knows? And even Halliburton's kind of lingering. I think this is going to be, you can feel it coming three months from now. It's like one of those Oscar seasons where there's so many good best actor people and it's like, oh man,

we're going to be really legitimately fighting about this. It feels like all NBA is headed that way. Just too many guys are having great seasons. It's going to be, everybody's going to be rolling. And I can hear the Embiid stuff already. I know I'm going to start getting the texts. You realize Embiid's averaging almost 34 a game, right?

How is he not first team on the NBA? It's like, alright, sorry dude. He's playing against Jokic. He's generational talent. I just think this is going to be super ugly. So right now, you have to pick Tatum, Durant, Giannis. Two spots. Who would you pick? We're like at the 37 game

mark now. I would pick Durant and Giannis. I think I would too. God, Tatum. Tatum, this isn't on you. It's not your fault. You did nothing wrong. Giannis and Durant are two of the best 20 players of all time, having

great seasons. What can you do? All right. Yeah. Rob Mooney, good to see you. We can hear you on The Ringer on Bayer Show. We can read you on TheRinger.com. And I'll talk to you soon.

Thanks, Bill. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe. Because what you do, others will do too. Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Yeah, be safe. Because what you do, others will do too. Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all.

Not at all. Trains move quietly so you won't hear them coming. You won't hear them coming. See, safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up.

Give what up? Really? Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinx. All right, taping this. It is noon Pacific time on Thursday. Still some variables in play for these Week 18 games. We got some good news today about DeMar Hamlin.

He has to win the game in writing. Seems like the doctors are pretty optimistic. So the three-day, whatever you want to call it, it feels like it's winding toward maybe a decent conclusion, Peter Schrager? Hey, what's up? Look, we all were up Monday night. Personally, I host a morning show, so I wake up Tuesday morning hoping for the best, and there was no real update.

Wednesday morning, no real update. Thursday morning, no real update. Our show was extended an extra two hours each day because we might be getting news so we're talking three sleepless days waiting for something a glimmer and then as we're leaving on thursday from the show and we're kind of just like you know at this point exhausted mentally emotionally and just praying and hoping for the best. The doctor's had a conference call and it sounds like he's got not only, uh, what the doctor said, not only is, is, uh, his cognitive things working, but there's someone home and it's like, and it's amazing news bill. And I'm like on cloud nine right now, because it's been a really strange 72 hours of questioning, you know, all the things that go into professional football, but also

how we cover it as a media and what's appropriate and what's not. And gosh, the core thing is just you want him to be okay. And at the very least, we know that he's still here. And it's an amazing, amazing piece of news to get midday Thursday. Yeah. I thought everybody walked the line in the right way because there were so many different ramifications just from that game not being played that it was hard not to think about some of the stuff, but it also

didn't feel right to talk about it. But now it's Thursday and we still don't know if they're ever going to play this Bengals-Bills game. My guess is they probably don't. What's your gut? Probably no. I don't think so.

Obviously, I'm not speaking on behalf of the league, but I think that after COVID, I remember what they said. If we ever miss a game because of COVID, it'll go to winning percentage as opposed to the usual protocols and standings where everyone plays the same amount of games. Now, COVID, they didn't miss any games. They got through it, and it was standard. But once you put that in place there, you could always go back to it.

Now, the questions that were emerging the last couple of days were, well, how is that fair to Buffalo if they were the one seed when this went down? How is it fair to Cincinnati? All those questions, it's like the only thing that I've heard, and that came from a pretty good source, was that there was talk of if there's an AFC championship game and it's between Buffalo and another team, then perhaps it's at a neutral site.

And then it's, okay, so hey, they're not getting the buy. Yeah, that's too complicated. You know what one I thought was really interesting that I don't think they're doing, but that whole idea of if they really wanted to play that Bills-Bengals game or replay it or pick it up where it left off, however you want to do it, to make week one of the playoffs be the NFC games

and Bills-Bengals, and then make week two of the playoffs just the AFC games and then basically lose the Super Bowl bye week. I was like, if we're just trying to do the most fair scenario, that seems pretty fair. But on the other hand, I don't think any of these teams are really going to care, challenge this. Who's going to be the dickhead who's like, wait a second, this isn't fair to us. We almost had a guy die in a Monday Night Football game. People are going to roll with whatever the league decides, I think. I think there's also this feeling that Kansas City

lost to Cincinnati and Buffalo. Why should they be the benefactors of this? And that comes from the fan voice, but there's also a league voice where it's, is there any way we can make this work so that it does feel right? It was funny. Someone texted me a suggestion like, Andy Reid has hosted the last four AFC Championship games. Buffalo went into their building this year. Shouldn't Andy Reid just say, hey, wouldn't he be a hero if he was like, I'm giving Buffalo the one seed? You know what? No.

The Chiefs are not going to give the one seed away. It's not their job or duty to do it. The other suggestion was. Well, also, people can go in Arrowhead and win anyway. It's happened a congenital times. It's not the most terrifying place. If you want to nullify the advantage that you get from having a bye and having a home game, do you expand the playoffs

to eight teams? I hated that. I thought that was ludicrous. I don't like it either. If you really want to try to figure out a fair way to handle that Bills-Bengals game, you play it in two weeks. But I don't think anyone wants to do that. And I don't think the players on both teams want to play another game two weeks

after the whole thing. This is all fine. Just play it out. The game's void. The seeds are going to work out the way they're going to work. And if they take care of business, they'll play in three weeks. They'll play the divisional round against each other again. I guess the most interesting, just from a football standpoint, was the Bengals-Ravens game, which felt like it could have potentially meant something

if the Bills won on Monday Night Football. And now it doesn't really mean anything. And now the Ravens are in this weird spot where, and we'll talk about it when we are trying to figure out some of our picks later, like, you know, there's this scenario where

the Ravens could lose to the Bengals and then the Chargers immediately have nothing to play for. So now you look at that next game where the Chargers are playing the Broncos. Chargers are going to arrest everybody. So if you think the Bengals are going to beat the Ravens, it makes sense to pair them up with the Chargers are going to arrest everybody. So if you think the Bengals are going to beat the Ravens,

it makes sense to pair them up with the Chargers to lose. So you usually have these week 18 scenarios where it's like, well, if this happens, then this could happen. But it's even more in flux than ever. I think the one thing that's definitely, the Bills aren't just locked into the two seed. I think some people mistakenly thought they didn't know they didn't need to win.

No, they have to win. They have to win if they want to be the two seed. And they'll also know Vegas beat KC on Saturday. Yes, that is, yep. But I wonder, like, what have you heard? I just can't imagine how you play football six days. Yeah, look, I'll tell you this. After that, you that after like now that we kind of really know what happened, or at least I feel like we know 95% of what happened.

The guys, Hamlet's heart stops, right? He's getting CPR within a minute. It's probably one of the best aggressive CPR. 10 minutes in front of them of someone pounding on his chest. So that's why they were so upset. Because it was unclear as we were watching.

Why they looked so horrified. Yeah, what made this different than the typical like Josh Sweat going down on Sunday and all that stuff. And their clear vision, all of them on the field. And I was told some guys were sick afterwards watching CPR being administered, but not just, hey, aggressive to revive their teammate who didn't have a pulse on the field. Which you would only even know what that looks like from TV and movie shows. And I've spoken to clinical physicians. That is defined as trauma.

That is a real life trauma. You watch that and it's like you're witnessing something as horrific as you can imagine, and you witnessed it, and you witnessed it with others, and that is a traumatic event that they all went through and have to have flashbacks to and have to see, and that's real scarring stuff for them. And you're asking, how do you turn the page?

And I was talking to, I've spoken to all the Bills, several of the Bills coaches, but I was talking to one of them on the offensive side of ball. And he says, it's this crazy dynamic of I on the line for the Patriots, I've still got a game plan for that. While on the other breath, I'm totally messed up by what's going on with Hamlin. And I'm sure the Bengals are, they can't be feeling awesome either. Like they were on the field, they saw it. And you know,

that that's why part of me wonders if like on Friday, the bills and the Bengals is like, we're not playing this week. We need another week. What do they do? They had a walkthrough on Wednesday, the Bills. They had a walkthrough on Wednesday and I was told a lot of it was conversations and they're supposed to have a full practice Thursday, Friday, but I'm with you.

One of the cool things that came of this, and you're a parent of a youth athlete, two of them, And you just hope that the coaches not only are great leaders, but that your kids are in great hands and that they care as much about your kids as you do out there. And one of the things that I love- Especially in the moment when you have to make quick snap decisions. Is that McDermott told Taylor, and I don't know what's out there. What's not, I've spoken to both those guys that McDermott told Taylor, I've got to go to the hospital and be with this guy. And Taylor, without even a question said, no, go do that.

And then Taylor's captains, including Joe Burrow came to him and said, Hey, there were different locker rooms. Can we speak with the bills captain? So Taylor comes out of the locker room, goes to the bills locker room, mcdermott who he's dealing with hell mcdermott comes out and he's like is it cool if our guys come and chat with your guys and then out comes josh allen and burrow and allen and the captains are basically like we're not playing this are they and they're like no we're not playing this the coaches were all like yeah no we're not playing this so whether the league wanted them to play i don't think anyone in the league was like go out there and play that's not the story but the fact of the matter is these coaches,

I don't know 20 years ago if they weren't like, everybody stay fresh. Say what you want. Oh, wait a second. I would say 10 years ago, they're continuing to play. Stay fresh. Stay focused.

I said this on Tuesday in the pod. I think social media has completely changed the equation with this stuff because they at least have the ability to go on Twitter and to sample size reactions. And now we know Twitter is a horrible place a lot of the time, and it can really send you down the wrong holes,

especially if you're only following people who agree with everything you think and all that stuff. But in this case, you have a lot of football media people who are pretty impartial. A lot of current players who are watching. And current players and former players. And everyone was saying the same thing.

Do not keep playing. And there's no way they didn't have somebody. I don't think Goodell was looking at it, but there's no way somebody that didn't report directly to him wasn't like, I'm going to look at Twitter to see what people think. And when it's 100%, people are like, stop this. No more. Don't play tonight. That had to affect what they thought. But I think you're right. I think in 2009, they keep playing. Totally. I do. Or they at least go out there, rack on the field and start. But like these two guys, and it's funny, it's these two guys because I've always talked to these. We did Flying Coach together, and I get laughed at a little bit when I'm like, oh, I'm friends with this coach.

But one of the things I do in my job is I'm one of the guys who actually talks to the coaches. And it's not just on X's and O's because I can't speak that the way that I'd love to speak that. I just can't. So it's a lot of human stuff, and it's storylines. And whether you're a listener and you like that or you don't like that, it's fine. But one of the things I've said about these two guys always is that in-game management and you and I have talked about why you give the ball to Trent Taylor on an end around against Kansas City when it's fourth and one. But I'll throw Kingsbury in this mix. I'll throw a lot of the coaches that everyone says, get rid of these guys like emotionally.

And I think on a humanity level, like they really connect with their players. You know, Cliff had a guy on his team, a player, unfortunately passed away this summer. And it's like, OK, I got to go to work the next day and kind of talk with it. And it's more open and honest and vulnerable. Hey, let's not take out the balls today. Let's discuss how we feel. And that is impossible to imagine 15 years ago, impossible that McDermott would say, we got the Patriots on Sunday, but let's, let's not worry about that. We've got mental health

specialists and we've got, uh, you know, multiple doctors that are on hand. And if you have something to talk about, talk about it. I thought New York giants was really interesting. You know, Joe Shane and Dable, Joe Shane helped draft Hamlin last year. Dable was a coach last year in Buffalo. And they brought over Isaiah Hodgins, who's having a great season. Matt Brita, who's been great. John Feliciano, all these ex, Nick McCloud, who's in the same room. There's like seven ex-bills on the Giants. So Dable started off yesterday by saying, we're not talking football. We're not doing any of it. Let's have a little roundtable discussion and everybody just, we're here for each other. And I love that. I think that is what should be going on. And whether it's in your workplace

or whether it's in professional work, it's taken a long time. And maybe it's post-pandemic, maybe it's social media, maybe it's whatever. But I think football really did take a back seat to the mental health of this whole thing. And now they're told, all right, it's got, but I think football really did take a back seat to the mental health of this whole thing. And now they're told, all right, it's got to click in. And I'm curious to see

the output on the field on Sunday. Totally different situation. But I remember after 9-11, like even three days after it was like, are we ever going to have, ever going to have sports again? Like I just say, it just seemed like everything was over. We're going to be going to games and paying tickets and drinking beers in the stands. Like that, that world's done. What this new world we're going to.

And then, you know, after a few days, I think you take a step back, people calm down and they're like, we need life to be a little bit normal again. And it feels like that will happen this weekend where football is such a big part of everybody's life. On Tuesday, Wednesday, it seemed inconceivable we would watch football.

Or be able to talk football. It wasn't a good time. Can I make a parallel to your other world in the pop culture world? Like I was thinking today on Good Morning Football, we started talking about, you know, the implications of Lions-Packers. And it felt a little bit like when Gilbert

did the aristocrats joke. Or when had rudy giuliani come on snl and say like it's okay to laugh again like that's what i felt like again it's not 9-11 just talking football yeah yeah just talking normal scenarios yeah yeah i think once you do it and now that hamlin i you know knock on wood it seems like it's on the path back yeah it, it's okay to talk football. You and I can talk stupid. I didn't even look at the games until this morning. It didn't feel right? It didn't feel right and also no idea what was going to happen

and it was just like, I don't even really care. And then today, especially getting the news about Hamlin, then you start thinking, all right, there's some interesting things happening this weekend, right? There's not just like the different things, this could lead to this and all the rock, paper, scissors stuff, but even stuff like, could the Steelers make the playoffs? Could Aaron Rodgers pull this off? What happens if the Lions make the playoffs? That would be one of the great Lions moments of the last 50 years just beating the packers i saw the stat today no team has made the playoffs since 1970 bangles with like virgil carter uh since starting off one and six and the the lions can do it they just need the rams to upset the

seahawks and they need to beat the packers can we talk about that ram seahawks game let's do it we saw mcveigh there's been a couple games this year since their season ended they don't have a first round pick where it just seemed like he was kitchen sinking it and really into it I is it fair to say he doesn't there's not a lot of love loss with Seattle and the Rams it's a rivalry it's at least a rivalry, right? Yeah, it's a rivalry. There's respect with the coaches. Sure. Bobby Wagner's the key in this one in that he absolutely despises the Seahawks and the organization and the fact that they cut him after 10 years there. And he was very vocal about it this week. So if there is any extra oomph in it, it's that.

But like you've always said, this is the zombie Rams. This isn't Aaron Donald and Cooper Cup and Stafford. This is a collection of pieces. And if Bobby Wagner can rally them, that's great. But it's asking a lot. Could this be McVay's last game? Okay. So let's talk about that. Let's talk about that. I would have told you a month ago, no way. There is no way this guy is going out with this season. And I don't think it's his last game coaching. I don't.

I just think he is so burnt out. And I'm not speaking on behalf of him, but I'll say as someone who speaks to him often, this season has been really tough on him. And I'm talking mentally, emotionally, all of it. And it's paired with real life stuff. You know, his wife is Ukrainian. Her whole family is over there. he's dealing with that as well he didn't really have a break because he got uh married over the the off season and then he got the honeymoon and came right back into things and

with all these injuries and with all of this he's poured in his himself into it obviously and i think he's he's just spent so i don't have any insight on whether this is last game but i will tell you this. He needs a long vacation after this thing, and he's going to think things through. So there's a feeling that there's a chance that, you know, whether it's he doesn't coach next year or whether that he's taking a couple months off

before we get to the combine, like whatever it is, or before we get to the draft. Yeah. This guy, you know, he's going to take some time after this season and make some decisions about his life, not just his coaching career. You know what I mean? Rams are six and a half point underdogs to the Seahawks. The Seahawks did not look good for two months. They looked good last week. And did they look good because they played really well or because the Jets shit the bed? I know. And the Jets were asleep that whole game. You could see it like

the first drive, Walker's just like dancing by people. And it was like, this Jets defense was like a top three defense for most of the year. They're not even tackling anymore. And which leads me to the Salah question about, you know, could this be his last game? So you have a bunch of coaches that I don't think people, and especially because this is all we would have talked about in week 18. Yeah, we would have done this otherwise. And the Hamlin, that whole situation just took over everything for three days and it should have. But I think that I, like, are the Jets going to have another coach? I think Salah's safe.

You do? Yes. From good intel, I think Salah's safe. They've lost five to have another coach? I think Salah's safe. You do? Yes. From good intel. I think they've lost five straight. I know. I think Salah's safe. They lose to, uh, who's the Skylar Thompson. They lose to him this week. Six straight.

Yeah. They, they win, they get eight wins and you would have said you would have signed up for that anyway. If they lose, they would, they finish with seven wins. I think you would have said you sign up for that. I know it wasn't the way they wanted, but I believe Salah is safe. What if Sean Payton and Tom Brady come to the Jets and were like, we're a package deal, two years?

Yeah, I don't know what Woody Johnson would say about that. He would probably want to listen to it. But I also think that's probably unlikely. What's your Sean Payton intel? Sean Payton intel. You spent some time with Sean Payton. Yeah, I spoke to him for a while this week too about it all. So here's the breakdown.

So he's under contract the next two years with the Saints. And the way the league rules are written, if you're a player and you want to be traded, you usually get permission to go and have your agent go and field a trade for you. The coaches are different. Coaching, you have to first get permission from the saints and kind of work out compensation before you can even meet with

the guy. So it's kind of a hurdle. Oh, interesting. You can't even talk to him? You're not supposed to. Now here's the difference. Mickey Loomis is one of Sean Payton's best friends for 25 years going back to working with each other. Mickey could go ahead and say, hey, we're good with it. We're not going to be upset with this. You can talk with Sean Payton, but that would take the Saints to say, go ahead and you're allowed to do it. You also have to think of compensation. What's it going to take? I've heard at least a first round pick for Sean Payton.

So that team has to be willing to do that. Um, Peyton is, has said he obviously, this is how his analogy was. It was awesome. And he told me, uh, on the podcast that I did with him and says, you know, you've got this, this stadium, a NASCAR race is going on and you hear the engines, but you're like, you're like right outside the stadium. And he goes, that's how the season had felt for me. Like I miss being in the car a little bit. Like I hear the, I hear it going. And I brought up John Lynch, who I used to work with on his crew at Fox. I was his sideline reporter. And I said, when Lynch took the job with the Niners, he like, you know, texted, I think me and Kevin Burkhart and whoever else on the crew and was like, hey guys, I just missed the scoreboard. I love doing the TV, but I missed the scoreboard of it all.

I think Sean Payton misses the scoreboard. The question is, is he going to go somewhere for the sake of going somewhere or is it going to be the ideal place? And I was like, quarterback matter, owner matter. Do you need to bring your GM? He's too smart not to have the quarterback, right? There's no way he'd be dumb enough to go to a team that doesn't have a quarterback. I think he might have enough. Hooper's is not

a good word. It's like what you use for the Greek warrior. Self-confidence. Enough self-confidence where, hey, I could go, and I'm just naming places, but I can go to Houston. I can go to Washington. I can go to the Jets. I can go wherever. The quarterback will come to me. I'll figure it out and we'll be fine. I don't need to worry about what I inherit. Now, you look at Houston. They got the first overall pick. Then it's like, are you coming there to draft Bryce Young or are you coming there and you're saying, all right, I'm bringing Garoppolo or I'm bringing Brady with me? Houston's fun. Yeah. There's a lot of different places. Denver.

How about Washington? Washington's intriguing, especially- What about Bezos, Sean Payton, and Tom Brady, the new three musketeers? You said it, not me. And does that happen over the next few weeks? Probably not. So does Sean Payton then say, well, that's a possibility down the road, or none of these jobs are ideal for where I want to live. I can wait a year. I think the same opportunities, amount of opportunities will be available next year than they are. Except there's always, there's always the one monkey wrench coach firing that we had no idea was

going to happen. It happens every year. Yeah. Last year there could be one of their, like it could be the chargers who all of a sudden they just get upset in round one in Jacksonville. And they're like, we didn't like the way this is. They're like, they're like, we didn't like the way the season went.

Yeah, we didn't like that. We're out. Sean Payton, come on in. Who knows? So I think my long and short, and it might sound very long, is he'll listen to everybody. And I think he wants to get back. I don't think he's taking the first thing that's offered to him.

So I think he's going to take his time. And if the team isn't willing to let him take his time and let him do things his way, then I think there'll be an issue. You know, your NASCAR analogy reminded me of when nephew Kyle decided it was sober October. Okay. And he wasn't going to go out.

And like on October 7th, I think he walked by the frolic room and smelled a Marlboro Light and that was it. He was back in. He got hired by the first team that looked at him. He heard the Van Morrison on the jukebox and just drifted in. Kyle said it was 21 days until the NASCAR race pulled him in. Turn on your camera.

Get that TikTok camera on. Let's take a break and we'll talk about some of the games. All right. So we're going to talk about million-dollar picks. Last week, we went one and three on the big bets, and the big mistake was

doing Dolphins money line plus 126. Dolphins plus two and a half covered. I got greedy. I still don't know how the Pats won. I still don't understand how the Pats are eight and eight.

I guess you could look at the quarterbacks. The best quarterback that they beat out of those eight was Jared Goff. They beat Zach Wilson twice. They beat Skyler Thompson. They beat Trubisky. You go on down the line, it's like they have not beaten a real quarterback. And you have this Bills game this week where Josh Allen, I think, officially owns them. They've had no

answers for him. The only time was a 40-mile-an-hour win was the one time they had a semi-answer for him, but I do think as good as this defense has been, especially statistically, and I do think the offense has done them no favors,

this is a different animal playing this Bills team. Is it? I don't know. Well, just with a mobile quarterback who can throw the ball. I mean, any other week, I'd say, of course, the Bills are fighting for everything, but I don't know what version of the Bills we get.

Right, we don't know. Yeah, we don't know. So do you even touch it or do you say... I think you stay away. Yeah, I think you have to. But the interesting piece of it is... Bills need it. If the Pats win, they're in. Yeah, the Bills still need it for seeding.

And then you have the Steelers that I just think are a better team than the Patriots who might not make it because it took them too long to get their season going. And I guess if you're the Steelers, you can still say, look, this season was a win. We lost a lot for two and a half months. We had injuries all over the place. By the end of this season, we were one of the 10 best teams in the league. And Pickett's a real guy. Pickett's a guy that has won in big games

and is tough. They won their last four road games. They went into Baltimore on a Sunday night and it was Pickett, Pickens, and Jalen Warren, three rookies leading the way. Like it was an awesome win and it's been an awesome season. The rest is just, last week going into week 17, you and I were like, all right,

we're taking the Steelers no matter what. And then we watched that Sunday night game. Even when they were down 10, I think I texted you. I'm like, I still feel okay. I feel like they're going to be fine. That's what you want from a young team. And whether they make the playoffs or not is irrelevant at this point. I mean, it'd be an awesome story, but... Well, our friend John Jastrzemski points out that this week's rat line is Steelers minus two and a half over the Browns. I know, the rat line. Makes no sense why it's not three. It doesn't smell right. There's something off about it. There's a scenario where you can bet the Bills just to win. You can bet the Jets to beat Skyler Thompson and you can bet the Steelers to win and it's plus 327. Now, the other way to go is you

just bet the Steelers minus two and a half, but if you're in on like, I think the Steelers to win and it's plus 327. Now the other way to go is you just bet the Steelers minus two and a half but if you're in on like, I think the Steelers are actually making the playoffs. We're going to go into Sunday night and they're going to be the seventh seed. That's your scenario. It's plus 327. They would need all those things to happen.

All realistic. If you go one by one, the Bills killed the Patriots five weeks ago, destroyed them. And the Bills could also come out like a house on fire on Sunday and be like, we're winning this one for number three. Super emotional. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We've seen that. See, the Jets is the second piece of that. They've lost five in a row. I have no idea

if they're playing hard for this coach anymore. They certainly didn't seem like they were last week. And the Dolphins need the game. There's a scenario where if the Pats lose- They're in, if they lose... They're in. If they win. They're in with Skyler Thompson. Sure. So to me, it feels like Dolphins-Jets is a stay away. And I think Bill's-Pats is a stay away.

I think so too. Steelers is not a stay away. I think they're better than Cleveland. Rat line. I know it's a rat line. Rat line. New term. Rat lines?

I use it every other sentence. Rat line. So you could either go Bill's-Jets, Steelers, plus 327, or Steelers minus two and a half. The one that's not a rat line is Jaguars minus six over the Titans. I think it's a good line. I think it's fair. The Titans, last six weeks, they've lost six in a row.

They're 32nd offensive DVOA and 30th defensive DVOA. So by all calculations, they're the worst team in the league the last six weeks. Same span, Jags won five of six, 12th offensive DVOA and eighth defensive DVOA. Now the Titans have a bunch of guys coming back. Derrick Henry's back. What else? The offensive line's in slightly better shape. The defense has a couple of big players coming back. And here'srick Henry's back. What else? The offensive line's in slightly better shape. The defense has a couple big players coming back.

And here's the other little wrinkle here. You know, Jacksonville's the 32nd market, so no one hears a peep they complain about. But, you know, Tennessee rests all their starters last Thursday. They said, we're going to give the NFL, you know... An Amazon shit sandwich. An Amazon shit sandwich. And we don't care because we're resting them.

They rest them. The schedule comes out. The Jaguars played Sunday, played all their starters, gave the NFL a product. And the schedule comes out. Okay, Jaguars on six days rest. You have to play Titans. Five days.

Yeah, you get five days rest. The Titans, you get 10 days. We're going to play this game Saturday for a division. I mean, every advantage went to the Titans on that. And they got the rest. And they've got now, you think those 10 days or We're going to play this game Saturday for a division. Every advantage went to the Titans on that and they got the rest and they've got now, you think those 10 days or whatever it is and you add the extra five days that they got because they didn't play anybody on Thursday.

Seems like Tennessee gets a bit of an advantage on that. Except that their quarterback is Josh Dobbs. Yeah, I can't. We have Josh Dobbs and Skyler Thompson determining playoff matchups this weekend. We've had TJ Yates play against Connor Cook in a playoff game, I believe, in the past. Yeah, I can't. We have Josh Dobbs and Skyler Thompson determining playoff matchups this weekend. We've had TJ Yates play against Connor Cook in a playoff game, I believe, in the past. Yeah, true.

So we've been here. Jags could get a wild card if New England, Miami, and Pittsburgh all lose. I think the Titans are done. Okay. It's in Jacksonville. It's in Jacksonville. I think Jacksonville's been pretty good.

I don't trust them completely. And there's a chance the Titans hang around and do variable stuff. But Josh Dobbs, he wasn't even on a team two weeks ago. So I want to put Jacksonville in a tease. Okay. And we either put them in a tease or a parlay.

It could go a variety of ways. I think looking at the Bengals against the Ravens, who now doesn't seem like they really have anything to play for now that the division is off the table. Can we talk about Lamar? Let's talk about Lamar. The biggest question mark that no one's allowed to ask about because everyone gets very sensitive when you question what's actually going on with Lamar. Let me ask you, is it a question mark? I think you can kind of read between the lines and understand what's going on, right? I don't think it makes sense.

It seems like Harbaugh seems like he's checked out. He's like, I've given up trying to figure out this guy. They don't know. It's like a Kawhi Leonard situation all of a sudden. And it has to tie to the fact that they didn't take care of him with the money. Look, they tried offering him a $200 million contract for the season, and he didn't want to go into it then. So, look, this doesn't come from the Ravens, guys.

I know there's an overall, not frustration, just kind of a feeling of, well, Lamar is Lamar, and that's Lamar. I disagree. I think it's frustration. I'm curious to hear. I want to hear from the team, though, because at some point the players look to you and say, okay, bro, I get it. But, hey, we're all playing through pain right now because that injury at first, and you've spoken to different orthopedic experts, everyone's pain tolerance is different, but that injury was supposed to be, you know, if it is what they said it was, it's two to three weeks. And then maybe you rest and you come in the playoffs, but like, there's no guarantee Lamar's playing in the playoffs. There's no guarantee. He hasn't given them that word. And, you know, he's working with the team doctors. So I'm sure that you're hoping that things are tracking right.

But like you could tell by Harbaugh and some of the other people who are speaking, they're just like, it's almost like, hey, we don't know. When he says he's ready to go, we'll go. Let's say we were Lamar's best friends in the world. Kyle, turn the camera. We're Lamar's best friends in the world. And his need doesn't feel a hundred percent. He's got no receivers. And it's a game where there's seven

point underdogs in Cincinnati who has a much better team. And he's not a hundred percent. And he has no contract at the end of the year. And he's like, I don't know if I should play in this game. I think I'm going to be in a worse spot career-wise and everything else health-wise. There's not a lot of upside other than doing this for my teammates, but I might not even be on this team in three weeks. Should I play? For week 18, I would say as my friend, I would say no. Now the question is a week from now in the wildcard round. Yeah. in the playoffs you're playing. Does that change?

Are you? Well, what is this? Like a college bowl situation? I don't know. It's like the seniors are just like, I'm out, I'm going to the draft cup. We have, this is, I mean, Lamar is as unique a player

that we have seen when it comes to these contract things and when it comes to it. I don't think he's, no, he's definitely injured. The question is, is he going to be able to play? Is he healthy enough to play in that week? it, I don't think he's, no, he's definitely injured. The question is, is he going to be able to play? Is he healthy enough

to play in that week? And if he doesn't feel healthy enough, is Lamar going to say, you know what, screw it, I'm going to play. It's the playoffs. This is the most interesting story of the week.

And no one can talk about it because everyone gets so sensitive. It's Kawhi. It's Kawhi all over again. And there's also so many, he doesn't have the agent. He doesn't have the marketing guy. He doesn't have,

so you look to the teammates and they all love him so it's like they missed the last few weeks last year and that was unfortunate they missed the playoffs like this would be two years in a row that he didn't play the final month of the season and they are in the playoffs and you want to say 99 he's going to be out there but i i have grown to know that to guess lamar jackson's maneuvers at this point in year four or five, I'm not foolish enough to say he's absolutely playing in the playoffs. I don't know. The reason it reminds me so much of Kawhi is there's a mystery. The team is clearly annoyed, but not being too public about it.

But you can tell. Well, they desperately want him there to play. And they want him to play and they need him. And then from Lamar's standpoint, you mentioned it. He's atypical as a superstar because he doesn't have this connective tissue to the media. There's no leaks from him. Nobody knows what he's thinking,

which is very similar to what the Kawhi thing was like. Kawhi, remember he had Uncle Dennis? Remember the guy's name was? The uncle. And it's like, I do talk to a lot of agents and the amount of shit they talk on Lamar, it's like you got to to a lot of agents and the amount of shit they talk on Lamar it's like you gotta try

to funnel it out because all those guys are like he could be making a hundred million dollars off the field with endorsements you don't see any commercials

with Lamar Jackson he's an awesome talent it's true and he just he doesn't he doesn't do it he doesn't do it and he doesn't have an agent

why isn't he in commercials he's got no commercials Baker Mayfield had three commercials he was on the cover of Madden and it was like, that was it. You don't see Lamar doing anything. That's really weird.

I think the whole vibe on the Ravens is really weird. Calais Campbell, it seems like he might play. That's why it's tough doing this on Thursday. I think he makes... That is like a three-point difference if he's out there. That's at least one drive that keeps going because he's not playing. But I think it's so hard for them to move the ball.

It is. And it's like, if Dobbins and Edwards can get going and Huntley can move, Huntley moved a little bit. He was running the ball. Well, too. It's like,

you can get to 16 points, but you can't be winning in a shootout again, you know, and that's not their style, but they're not going to win a game. That's, you know, 30 to 20 or,

you know, 24, 21. They're going to care about the game, the Bengals, because who knows? Those Pats, same time. They're going to know the Pats at least have this defense that can keep them in on it.

I would love nothing more than Lamar suiting up on Sunday telling us that this whole thing is moot and Lamar going out there and running for 180 yards and throwing for 220. I would love nothing more. And I would be backing on the Ravens and I'd be like, hell yeah, Ravens are fun. Lamar's out there and running for 180 yards and throwing for 220. I would love nothing more. And I would be backing on the Ravens. I don't see it. And I'd be like, hell yeah, Ravens are fun.

Lamar's in that conversation, but I don't know. I have no confidence that that's going to happen. I really like the Bengals and the Jaguars in a tease. And I know we've been steering clear from the teases. I was going to say, what about the overnight tease where it's all ruined by the first day if you get the first leg of it on Saturday? And then the other end of it is you're halfway there

and you wait. Like, are you okay with that? Just from a... I'm totally okay with that. You're okay with that. All right. The Jaguars line seems a whiff too high just because of the variable factor,

but I really do think they're going to win. And I just can't imagine Josh Dobbs winning a do or die, lose or go home playoff game when he wasn't on a roster two weeks ago. I know he looked okay in that Dallas game, but that was like a low stakes whatever game.

That was over in five minutes. It's going to be a little different with the Jaguars coming after him. The Jaguars make me nervous. I think it's important to say if you're going to bet on them, like this makes me nervous. I don't totally trust them, but they have won five and six.

I think we jumped all in on them when they played the Eagles in the rain and they just could not even compete. But this is a different team than that. So then Packers-Lions is the other really fun one. Do you want to even pick that game? To me, that's one of those,

I just love both teams and their stories right now. Well, I think the line's too high. What is the line? So the line right now is four and a half. It's in the Vegas zone. It's in Green Bay. And I really genuinely believe the line should be Green Bay by three. And there's this extra half, one and a half points. JJ said this to us when he was texting us about it today. He's like, I just think Rodgers gets this one. There's this Rodgers kind of aura that's really a past performance thing. Even during this win streak, he's had some good throws.

He's also had some bad throws. I wouldn't say he's been lights out. They've really won it because they've run the ball really well and their defense has played better. And on the special team side, they've actually made a couple special teams plays. They've been great on defense and special teams. Kills them usually. Killing seals, sure.

Yeah, does it this year. There's also this feeling that the Packers, for whatever reason, they lost to the Giants twice. Hakeem Nicks catches a big deep pass. And then another time, Brett Favre loses at home. When those Packers are the one seed in the playoffs they just don't win but when they're the sixth seed they get right when they're scrapping tears when they're scrapping um the other part of it is of course earlier in the day and a lot of seahawks fans i'm trying to think

of the psychology of it why they're so pissed but i hear a lot from seahawks fans that they got screwed and the feeling is that the, although they might want to be able to be knocking the Packers out of the playoffs and that's motivation. If the Seahawks win the Lions, suddenly a whole bunch of motivation or just the wind could be knocked out of their sails that they've been eliminated before they even take the field. How that's a disadvantage for Seattle. I'm not exactly sure, but Seahawks fans are pissed by this. I don't know. Dan Campbell's guys are going to fight. They're too young not to know this would be cool to knock out

Rodgers, but it certainly does. I bet you the line changes by a lot once the Seahawks beat the Rams if they do. Well, what do you think the Sunday night game should have been? You know what? I think it should have been Titans-Jaguars, and you can laugh me off this thing. It was a win-in. I 100% agree with you. I think it should have been Titans Jaguars and you can laugh me off this thing. It was a win.

I 100% agree with you. I think they should have gone. I think that would have done this Saturday. I would have done the Seattle Rams green bed at Trey combo. I like that. I like that. You just have it all wrapped up in one day because of the different time windows.

But I, I don't know. I felt like the, the still the, the winning of a division and winning in is so pure that I think we'll all watch it anyway. I know you don't want to put that product from Tennessee on the field, but watch.

They'll play it Saturday night. We're all going to watch. And Derrick Henry will probably gobble up 200 yards and we'll be like, this is a pretty good game. Right. Or it's 38 to 10. There's a Rams-Lions scenario plus 883. If we're thinking just for fun underdog parlay.

Rams somehow beat the Seahawks. I don't see the Rams. I want to believe that the Bobby Wagner storyline and McVay gets... I think there's just so much more on the line for Seattle. There's only one game... They lost their best linebacker. Yeah, Jordan Brooks is out.

There was a game in 2003 that the Arizona Cardinals played the Minnesota Vikings in the final week of the season. Cardinals had nothing going for them. Josh McCown was their quarterback. There was no reason to play. And the Vikings just had to win it in. And the Cardinals beat them in Arizona on the final play to a guy named Nathan Poole. And it's like, that's the only one I have where a team that had zero to play for went and just beat a team that had everything to play for. And I'm sure there are other examples. Well, no, there was an example last year. Colts and Jaguars.

Yeah. Although that was more of a Wentz. Now Wentz is out of the league. That happened fast. Wow. Boy, did that escalate in the words of Ron Burgundy. Brick killed the guy. Carson Wentz is out of the league. How about the Command commanders last week they

get so many things first they announced a new mascot week 17 it was this giant right and they get eliminated then the rivera press conference i don't even blame ron that is such a franchise top to bottom sure i blame him but like how is there not a pr person or an executive during the week saying you know there is a chance we get eliminated here? For him to not know was stunning. Well, every last week of the season, there's some stupid upset. Like the Jags Colts last year. Somebody's tease just gets set on fire.

And last year, it was the Colts somehow not winning. Insane. That just absolutely demolished I would say 75% of the gambling world. That one though, young team, one win, they have everything to play. So what's the version of that this week? I don't know. I would look at the

Eagles and Giants and I would say the Eagles are an absolute lock. There is no chance the Eagles are losing that game. Because the Giants just aren't going to care. They can't go up. They can't go up. They can't go down. They're already in the playoffs. So it's not like, hey, young guys, go put on some good tape.

We have more football to play. To me, the Eagles are a guarantee. They are going to win that game. All right. So cross them off. Bears, Vikings. I was thinking about the Vikings in a tease, too, even though I haven't loved how they're playing.

But at the same time, like no field. No field. And Chicago, like some legitimate draft stuff now and play for them, right? Yeah. Like them winning this game,

if I was a Bears fan, I would absolutely lose my mind. We've seen this happen sometimes with the New York teams. Like the Knicks have done this a couple of times. The Jets have done it multiple years. That's how they lost Trevor Lawrence. It would actually be irresponsible

for the Bears to win this game. One monkey wrench team I was looking at was the Raiders. Let's go. Raiders Chiefs Saturday. Plus nine and a half. I was so impressed with them in that

49ers game. I thought they went toe-to-toe with them. I thought the 49ers played pretty well. Raiders just made great plays. Like Stidham had a couple of plays where the Niners did everything right. And they fucking crushed him as he was throwing it. And he still made a play. So I, I think the Raiders might actually be like a sneaky,

decent team that just had some bad luck and some weird things happen. And then the Chiefs just love letting people hang around and hang around and hang around. A couple of thoughts on the Raiders. Interesting to see how that team responded when everyone in the media, including myself, was pretty disappointed with how things were handled with Derek Carr. And I did get sources tell me that there are people in that building who predated McDaniels and Ziegler who weren't thrilled with the way it was handled. But there was no one in the building who was saying that Stidham didn't deserve a chance. From everything I was told after the fact, Stidham's been lightening up in practice.

He knows McDaniels' offense. Josh trusts him because they were together in New England. He was Josh's guy in New England before they went to Cam Newton. There's a lot of love for Stidham in that building. And the way they all responded, including Devontae Adams. You get the feeling that they all kind of knew that maybe Carr's days were done and it was time to at least roll out Stidham

before the season was over. I thought Carr looked shot this season. I think this could not have gone worse for Derek Carr, the way this all played out, especially with Stidham, how he played. And then... Those guys, when they start, when they don't want to get hit anymore

and they start checking down and just trying to scramble away from contact, it's usually a bad sign. Yeah. And they're talking. Yeah, it does happen. Curry can run. He made some money.

Like, there's no shame in it, but he wasn't the guy he was last year. No, and his contract's interesting. Three days after the Super Bowl, he's guaranteed $40 million. So, assume he won't be on the Raiders. The question is, can you trade him? I don't even know if anyone's up to trade him.

I think he's in that kind of Matt Ryan zone. Like Matt Ryan leaving the Falcons last year, where he's a name. There's past performance, but if you actually watched, didn't seem like you had it anymore the raiders there's an adjusted line on fanduel where you can take them to plus four and a half and they're plus 168 mind you the chiefs need this game for the one seat how many weeks in

row can we watch them fuck around the other thing is there's some records here and i don't know if they they could be like what is it 430 for my 430 for Mahomes, and I know it's in more games, but it still counts. He would break the all-time passing record list, and then Kelsey with 113, which is doable, or 117 would have the all-time single-season tight end receiving yards list, which I don't think anyone's hanging banners over that, but it's a stat. They could be, if they're up early, they could be looking to not just take the foot off the pedal.

Knowing they have a bye the following week if they just win, they could be looking to air it out with Mahomes and put on a show here. Jags lines up to six and a half. All right, get in on it now. Let's get to Jags in before it gets even higher. The only other, when you're just talking about underdogs, Patriots. Patriots. If you just want to get fired up about the defense and that,

but I wouldn't bet against the Bills. What about David Blau, who looked good last week against Atlanta? David Blau against the Niners. Any shot? Cliff's last stand? I don't know if that's true, man. Do you think Cliff at some point was like, hey, those hard knock cameras,

can we pull the batteries out of those? Did you watch this week's David Blau? No, I can't watch. It's painful. David Blau was doing magic tricks for Cliff and Cliff looks mildly interested. It's like directed by Noah Baumbach. It is.

It's like Adam Driver shows up as the offensive coordinator just screaming at people. It's pretty brutal. Got a deck of cards doing tricks and Cliff doesn't even seem that into it. Jesus. What about Washington and Sam Howell plus seven?

No, I can't watch that team. All right, so who's going to be the surprise team then? All right, we got Tampa, who says they're playing their starters. Yeah, I'm not doing the nobody cares games. I need some sort of incentive from somebody. There needs to be at least one. Oh, my God. I do think Stidham fits the bill.

I'm with you. It's, you know, Mahomes has some personal stuff. Yeah. They can lock up the one seed, but it does have the makings of like, and the Raiders are up 10-0. Yeah. And that happened last year.

You could get last year, a similar game. The Chiefs found themselves like down 10-0 to the Broncos and you and I were all in on it. We're like, what the hell? And they pulled it out because I think Vic Fangio had some questionable clock management at the end with Drew Locke. Questionable. That was his entire

thing. All right. We have for Chiefs Raiders announcers. Do you know? Is it like Louis Riddick and Steve Levy? Who do we got? Steve Levy, Louis Riddick, and Dan Orlovsky. Let's go. Could you hear Steve Levy's voice

going, and Jared Stidham has given the Raiders a 14 nothing lead. Okay. All right. Let's just say this. I think Eagles win. I know that's not shocking, but I like them to win by a lot. That's their 14-point favorite.

Thanks, Shrakes. How about this? I'll give you a Bengals, Broncos minus two and a half over the Chargers, where the Chargers might have their second string in for that game. Jaguars minus six,

Vikings minus seven and a half, four team tees, three to one odds. Yeah, let's do it. That's our big one. Bengals, Broncos, Jags, Vikes. And Eagles. You want to throw the Eagles there? No.

Then we could do just the Steelers straight up, even though it's a rat line. And then if it loses, we can have fun with what a rat line it was. Where are we at for the season? This is week 18. Of course, we go into the playoffs, but I feel like it was. Where are we at for the season? This is week 18. Of course, we go into the playoffs, but I feel like we're going to end up even for the season going into the playoffs.

We're down 889. Last week was tough. That Dolphins game was a big swing for us, which I feel like we had. Dolphins hurt us last couple of weeks. Yeah, Dolphins burned us. Steelers were good to us, though. No, maybe we're at them again. All right, Shregs, good to see you.

Next time I see you, it'll be playoff time. Yeah, baby. It's our time. Every three years in a row, we've done really well. John Madden used to say, football doesn't matter until after Thanksgiving.

For million-dollar picks, we start in the playoffs. Let's go. You don't think there's any sort of a Rams-McVay? No, no, no, no. Nothing? Stay away from the Rams.

Don't touch the Rams. Okay. All right. Good to see you, Schrags. Bye, bud. All right. So I'm taping this part. It's past nine o'clock Pacific time.

You just heard me and Schrager talking about wondering what the ramifications were going to be of the Buffalo Cincinnati decision. Well, now we know. They have this whole neutral site thing they've announced, and it's going to affect million dollar picks. It's also going to affect the playoff seating. Basically, if Casey wins, that guarantees that they're the one seed and that they would host the AFC title game against anyone other than Buffalo. If Buffalo loses, we're done.

We don't have to think about this again. If Casey wins and Buffalo wins, and then they both make the AFC title title game I guess that game's going to be played at a neutral site now this is important for million dollar picks because now Buffalo we know they're going to have to try this week not that we didn't think they were going to try anyway Buffalo can be the number one seed if Casey loses then we don't have to worry about the neutral site thing

if Buffalo and Casey both win Buffalo's the two seed we get all the neutral side stuff. If Cincy beats Baltimore, and both Buffalo and KC lose, Cincy becomes the two seed,

but they cannot become the one seed, but they would not have to play KC in Kansas City in the AFC title game. That would also be a neutral site game. That is really complicated. I don't even know if I explained that correctly.

The bottom line is everyone has to care this week, which is what we want from a million-dollar pick standpoint. So here we go. The million dollar picks for week 18. We're going to start off with the Pittsburgh Steelers. John Jastrzemski calls this a rat line. I agree with him. I almost think it's deceivingly deceiving. All right. What does that mean? How can something be deceivingly deceiving? It's deceiving in the sense that, wait, why is this line only two and a half? What am I missing? I'm going to stay away. But maybe that's why you shouldn't stay away.

I'm going to judge it on this. I think the Steelers are really good. I like their defense. I think they have a great coach. I think it's been a great story. They've been rags to riches during this season. I believe in Kenny Pickett. And I think the line should be higher. I think the line should be three and a half. So I'm going to grab the Steelers minus two and a half. We're going to bet $500,000 on that. Next one. So I was going to do teases, parlays, all this stuff. I abandoned that.

I'm just going straight up. 500K in the Jets. It's plus two right now. This is basically a bet against Skyler Thompson. This is a bet against Robert Sala. Schrager says he's safe. Who knows? I just know the Jets don't want to lose six in a row.

Talent standpoint, they're pretty even. I think when you remove two in that quick pass offense from Miami, on top of the fact that their defense, the Bradley Chubb trade, they gave up a first round pick for him. I can't think of three things he's done all season. It feels like their defense is going the wrong way. And I just, either team can win. I'll take the points.

Jets plus two, 500,000 on that. Next one. We're gonna do a little tease with the Bengals, who we now know has to win playing the Ravens. Tease them down to one and a half with the Jaguars against the Titans. Now, I go into that Jaguars-Titans game fully knowing that it's a little bit of a trap. Vrabel's been in this position before where he just scraps it together. But Josh Dobbs was not in the National Football League three weeks ago. So maybe Vrabel's revenge on us will be that the Jags will win but not cover. I don't care.

I'm teasing them down to even. I'm betting $500,000 on a Bengals-Jags tease. Lions-Green Bay, got to bet on this game. My theory is this, whether the Lions have something to play for or not, and odds are they won't, that's actually a nice position to be in. It's like, you know what? This is our playoff game now. Let's knock the Packers out of the playoffs and send Seattle in if Seattle beats the Rams. I'm assuming they're going to beat the Rams. Seattle doesn't beat the Rams.

Even better. Now the Lions and Green Bay, it's do or die. I just think this line should be lower. This is a three-point line to me. I still don't know. Green Bay, you know, they won a couple games against bad teams. They had that Miami game where all of a sudden, too,

it gets hurt. It flips. Green Bay's back in. Everyone's like, oh, don't let Rodgers in. And they looked really good against Minnesota last week. But Minnesota also, they lose their backup center. They're in their third-string center. It just felt like their offensive line collapsed,

which is why we're not betting the Vikings this week. They have no offensive line anymore. The Bears don't even want to win. I don't want to bet the Vikings. It just feels like a tight game to me. I think the Lions can score. I think they have cheap touchdown potential. And we're going to take the Lions plus four and a half.

I know I'm taking Jared Goff and Lambeau on a must-win game. I'm aware. 500K on that. And then last but not least, we're going to do a little 50K underdog parlay, adjusted line. We're going to take Washington. We're going to bring them down to plus four and a half against Dallas.

And we're going to take the Raiders down to plus four and a half against the Chiefs. Just guessing that these games are going to be close. Plus 529 for those. And that's it. Those are the million dollar picks for the last week of the season. Week 18, we are down $1.15 million for the season.

Hopefully we'll be in the positive when we get to the playoffs. Until then. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Rob Mahoney. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Thanks to nephew Kyle, Kyle Creighton, as always. And I will see you on this podcast on Sunday night.

Go Pats. Go Crossroads. I want to see them on the wayside never run Say I don't have feelings with them On the wayside On the wayside never run Say I don't have feelings with them