The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Knicks Stay Alive With Rob Mahoney and Joe House, Plus NFL Offseason Intrigue Rankings With Albert Breer

Episode Date: May 30, 2025

Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House and Rob Mahoney to react to the Knicks winning Game 5 in New York to push their ECF series against the Pacers to Game 6 (2:30). Then, they discuss OKC eliminating t...he Timberwolves in the WCF, what an OKC-Pacers Finals would look like, and SGA’s scoring ability (44:35). Finally, Albert Breer joins to talk about NFL offseason subplots (01:07:36). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Joe House, Rob Mahoney, and Albert Breer Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Get anything delivered on Uber Eats. www.ubereats.com The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 It's the Bill Simmons podcast. We are part of the Ringer podcast network where you can find the rewatchables, a great podcast. We did Heaven Can Wait. We wrapped up Big Ass 70s Month. On Monday, you can find that podcast on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel. You can also find it as a video podcast on Spotify. We already have next week's movie that we're doing. We need a Kyle Branagh, it hadn't been on in two months, and we needed to do an action movie. And naturally, it led us to the Steven Seagal movie that we haven't done yet, that we have to do, Out for Justice, the most important Steven Seagal movie
Starting point is 00:00:36 in the catalog. That will be coming Monday. There will be some laughs. So you have the whole weekend to watch it. Fandl, we did Taylor F Taylor fade this week and it actually hit. Jalen Brunson over 30 and a half. So you can check out, they have same game parlay stuff for this weekend that you can check out on a FanDuel sports book. So coming up, I went live after game five Pacers-Nix with Rob Mahoney and Joe House and then brought in Albert Brear to talk about all the NFL stuff that's happened over the last month since the draft.
Starting point is 00:01:10 Things you might've missed if your head was buried in the NBA playoffs. So that's all next. We'll take a break. We'll bring in Pearl Jam and then Joe House and Rob Mahoney all next. You're listening and watching the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel, our friends, America's number one sports book and they've made it easier than ever to get in on the action during an NBA playoff game even after tip off.
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Starting point is 00:01:57 for additional details. Must be 21 plus and President-elect states, game prom call 1-800-GAMBOR visit rg-help.com All right. Starting the BS podcast here with Rob Mahoney and Joe House. Are we sober house or we buzzed? Where are we? Late night house. We'll see what the cards give us groggy, like a little letting it loose house. Unlike night house. Let's see what the cards give us. Groggy, like a little, letting it loose house.
Starting point is 00:02:46 Unlike Andrew Nemhard today. We're doing this live on YouTube. I thought this was going to be an awesome game today and New York had other ideas. A couple of the Pacers had other ideas. Did New York figure anything out today, Mahoney? Or did Indiana just suck? I think they figured out how to play defense like they had something to lose. I think there's games where the next defensive problems are personnel based, are schematic.
Starting point is 00:03:13 That's been the case in this series to some extent. In this game, I didn't think they changed a ton. They changed some. Mostly they just played with actual intensity, especially on the perimeter to the point that it did feel like the Pacers kind of forgot for a while that they were allowed to move into the direction of the basket. Like it was all side to side, it was all handoffs up top. Once they, you know, Ben Mathurin came in and decided to cut and they decided to drive a little more, the game changed a bit, but I thought the Knicks perimeter defense pressured them out of a lot of their stuff and they deserve a lot of
Starting point is 00:03:41 credit for that. What'd you think, House? The Knicks did the thing that's most important in basketball, which is make the shots. They started off by the making of the shots in the first quarter, and that had the effect of keeping the Pacers from running. So we had two quarters from the Pacers where they scored less than 25 points. They scored 45 points in the whole first half. 23 points first quarter quarter 22 points second quarter Because the Knicks did the making of the baskets Bill Simmons
Starting point is 00:04:11 and Indiana stunk Not a good game for them It's pretty tough when Ben Mather and saved you from having like a 75 point game, which is where we're headed Yeah, and and the stats reflect how bad it was, but it was even worse watching it. Neesmith was one for eight. He only played 15 minutes, by the way. They seemed like they were limiting him
Starting point is 00:04:34 with that angle probably, and that, I mean, Jalen Brunson feasts every minute that Neesmith isn't on the floor. Yeah, and once they kind of realized maybe the game was a little behind them, they started a little more careful. Uh, num hard was three for eight. It felt worse. Three turnovers Turner. Yeah. 24 minutes, five points, four turnovers, and a couple of like really just awkward offensive moments,
Starting point is 00:04:59 25 feet from the basket where he's like trying to dribble against Mitchell Robinson. Like there's one time he just kind of fell out of bounds. Um, it was like, I thought the biggest thing the Knicks did today, other than pressure Halbert and just make it more difficult for him on defense was, uh, they felt like they were attacking miles Turner Rob. Yeah. Like, Oh, you're going to have bomb coming at you completely. And he's been beating up on their smaller defenders, all series against
Starting point is 00:05:24 mismatches. And they were swiping really well to kind of dislodge him. They were fighting for position much more effectively. You mentioned like on the perimeter, there's times where Miles Turner looks like a great athlete and then there's times where it looks like one of his legs is like a dramatically different length than the other and he can't quite move in any kind of like fluid manner. They brought that side out of him to the point that like Mitchell Robinson at some points was pressuring Miles Turner up to half court. Like they just
Starting point is 00:05:49 wouldn't let him move at all, much less get into that little handoff game. Yeah, it's weird. The Miles Turner free agency tape is going to have to be a carefully edited 20 minute highlight tape house. But I think the 20 minute highlight tape will be excellent. It can't have anything to do with Carl Anthony Towns. I mean, I think Kat has, has found the, the opposing center that he's most comfortable with in the entire NBA. And it's a version of Kat, you know, that man going to the rim with, with ferocity, relentless ferocity and his, you know, making himself into a true New York Nick.
Starting point is 00:06:27 You could see the crowd get super fired up every time he went to the, to the rack and bang, turn her out of the way and, and, you know, got his and really he and Brunson set the tone in the first quarter with that intensity that they brought and they controlled the flow of the game in the first quarter and it was weird that the Pacers didn't Really have any kind of retaliation. I mean the closest we got was that ten points with four minutes left in the third quarter Yeah, and then they kind of got there again in the fourth quarter, but really they just never got there Mahoney Yeah, but to that point with cat it was really telling that this series for him has become not really a post-up series, not really a three-point shooting series. It is drive past
Starting point is 00:07:10 Miles Turner, drive past Pascal Siakam. Pacers have nobody who can stay in front of him so long as Kat can stay out of foul trouble. And granted, you know, he had about three or four dumb fouls in this game. I think he easily could have been called for five or six, you know, shove here or there that just didn't get whistled. And maybe this game is very, very different, but he definitely showed up. Brunson definitely showed up. Like those guys had to deliver and the depth also did. Like honestly just might be the best Landry Shamett playoff run we've ever seen from him. Has there been a Landry Shamett playoff run? This is the thing. He tends to be the guy who comes into the playoffs and just immediately disappears.
Starting point is 00:07:45 Like way too small, gets boxed out of series, too streaky a shooter to really make a difference. This guy was like freezing TJ McConnell in the lane, like kill dribble on the baseline, completely stalling out the Pacers offense. The pressure that Shaman and Delon Wright have brought to the series, I think has been like a really meaningful thing, which is crazy to say. McConnell was another one who sucked tonight. Um, the really everybody in the Pacers you look through, Matheran has 23 points and they scored 94 as a team.
Starting point is 00:08:16 That's pretty rough. Um, the town's piece of it. I still feel like anytime a team isn't just completely attacking him on defense house, especially once he gets to four fouls, I would just go at him every play. Cause I just feel like law of averages. He's just going to foul somebody. It was funny to hear Van Gundy, uh, on this three man team we had tonight.
Starting point is 00:08:39 And we've had all through the playoffs and both conferences, just poor Kevin Harlan, his usage rate is all time low. He's basically like McHale Bridges in those games when he has six shots in 48 minutes. Um, but it was funny to hear Van Gundy just openly saying like they shouldn't put towns back in. He's just crazy enough to get a foul here. Cause I thought the same thing. 0.6 seconds left.
Starting point is 00:09:01 That's like just enough time for him to foul somebody on a pick. Uh, but for the most part, I think this series has been a win for him. An enormous win and all time when I mean, in the same way that we were observing Julius Randall, you know, kind of, uh, a rebranding for himself by the excellent performance he had for the Timberwolves, uh, in, in the West. I know, but look, for the most part, like who saw that coming, right? And you had to do some research. You had to go back into your basketball reference Bill Simmons database to compare him to some
Starting point is 00:09:35 greats. The 19 and 9, yeah. Him and Elgin Baylor, him and the greats. You had to do that. He made you do that. Julius Randall made you do that. But now he's going to make Charlotte give him a weird free agent offer and that's going to be the only one he gets.
Starting point is 00:09:47 That's undoubtedly true. But Townes also, this is like a version of Townes that I don't think anybody could say, we've seen this from Carl Anthony Townes in the playoffs. Like this is the Eastern Conference Finals for Christ sakes. It's very impressive to me. I like how hard he's playing. That's the big thing for me is like, whatever, the stats are going to come and go, the shots are going to come and go, but he really seems like he fully gives a shit, which I think is, and I felt that way last year with him too in the Western Finals too. So we've at least gotten over that hump with him. Mahoney. I think he's had great responses, right? It's like he's been embarrassed a couple times in
Starting point is 00:10:21 this series, especially defensively like we were just talking about, played off the floor in fourth quarters, taken out of the rotation for critical stretches, like Mitchell Robinson kind of taking his spot a couple of times. And then you get a huge response in crunch time. Then you get this response to the Indiana win. I don't know that you can ask a lot more of Townes than this. He's on a bad knee right now,
Starting point is 00:10:42 and he's still driving all that much. He's still relatively holding up defensively, again, give or take all the fouls. And credit to M2 gets to kind of punch it through with that final possession before the Pacers took everybody out. It was like Indiana couldn't pull down a defensive rebound. Josh Hart gets it, reroutes it to Towns. Pump fake drive, finish over Matheran, shrug off everybody. We're going home. He deserves that kind of moment with the series. He said, yeah.
Starting point is 00:11:06 And the Knicks were like dying to let the Pacers back in the game in the third quarter and the Pacers weren't, but there was like a six minute stretch where it just felt like the ball was flying around off everybody. It's funny. You mentioned the towns playing with a bad knee. Not sure how bad the knee was because it felt like he was doing a lot of stuff out there. That's true.
Starting point is 00:11:27 I had the hockey game on the smaller TV as I was watching the basketball and I was just thinking how funny it is. You're on the, you're at the playoff basketball game and like Carl Towns cutting it out with the sore knee. And then you go to the hockey game and guys like they have just divots in the side of their heads. They're funny with just broken hands or broken orbital bones. It's just, it's just funny how different the sports are house.
Starting point is 00:11:49 And classic tips. I mean, with, with his, with, with the knee, he had the most minutes of any Nick on the floor, 36 minutes. And he, uh, got the most attempts up, 20 attempts. So, you know, I thought it affected his shot a little bit was the one thing I noticed it, but the barreling to the basket thing, I kind of feel like the, the knee piece didn't matter, but I don't know.
Starting point is 00:12:13 I've changed my opinion on that trade a hundred times since they made it, but now I think Nick's won the trade. That's where I've landed today. After, after watching Julius Randall a couple of times against OKC. Big win for the Nicks. Can I ask you a question? I? I've already taken a shot at tibs, but I think you coached a great game. I honestly think that that Him getting four guys on the bench double digit minutes At this stage of the playoffs. I mean we are we keep exclaim out loud, we're shocked by the Shammet revelation,
Starting point is 00:12:46 but really Dillon Wright and the Shammet and McBride. And I think the move of heart to the bench, you still getting the 34 minutes out of him. Yeah. I think we gotta tip our hat to tibs here a little bit, Mahoney. Completely. Maybe he should have been here all along. Maybe they should have been playing this way.
Starting point is 00:13:02 They brought in Dillon Wright and Landry Shammet a little later in the season, but once they did, maybe those guys should have been in the rotation. That's fine. We can talk about that. I'm sure to encourage positive growth. This is Tom Thibodeau and we're meeting him where he is, which is in a moment of desperation, started turning to these guys and really found something with it. Like I don't even think it's just a minutes thing in terms of keeping the starters minutes down. I think having those guys in for meaningful runs where the Knicks are winning on defense, where they're creating all this energy, where they have the momentum.
Starting point is 00:13:31 To me, that's taking a lot of pressure off of OGN and OB, Mikhail Bridges, Josh Hart too. You really don't even dwell or notice on the fact that like those guys can't hit threes right now, aren't really hitting a lot of shots because the Knicks are winning with this defensive energy. Yeah, that's a good point. Their bench. guys can't hit threes right now, aren't really hitting a lot of shots because the Knicks are winning with this defensive energy. Yeah, that's a good point. Their bench, I guess, Hart, two for two for eight from three. And the Knicks, the Pacers seem super happy to give them as many as you want.
Starting point is 00:14:01 It's a weird thing for me. I agree that Tibbs coaching a game tonight. I also think it was reprehensible that he didn't ever try to figure out how to use his bench during the season. I remember doing a podcast after that. Nick's felt the game in Boston in like February where he's just playing the guys, huge minutes in this game that ultimately they're really going to be the three seed or the four seed. And it's like, what are you doing?
Starting point is 00:14:19 And I think the next fans in my life, they're, they're just apoplectic that it took until this series losing game one to then now experiment with all these different lineups and lineups that really haven't played together all season. But in a way better late than never, I guess, because it's definitely helped them. Um, I don't know. I we've, we've seen Shamett for a few seasons here. I refuse to believe he's like a late bloomer as a playoff asset.
Starting point is 00:14:50 And there's been a bunch of teams that have given up on Shamett just for the record. But he's out there. And again, like these lineups are lineups that I would never choose to put on the floor in a must-win playoff game, right? Like lineups that should not work, that should not make sense.
Starting point is 00:15:04 But I think it speaks to the fact that like, New York's needs right now are less for explosive offense and more for where are they getting that defensive intensity? Who are the guys who are really gonna pressure, who are really gonna play up? And Wright and Shaman have both done that, McBride always does that, and playing those three guys together
Starting point is 00:15:20 shouldn't be a thing, but it's a thing, and it's working in the series. Yeah, and make Indiana turn the ball over and make Albert not as comfortable, which they managed to do. Indiana had 20 turnovers tonight. The Knicks were re out rebounding them by 10 for most of the game. And that even got a little bit. Um, but I guess from the next side, they were 28% from three and they won
Starting point is 00:15:43 handily good sign for them from the Pacer side, they were 28% from three and they won handily. Good sign for them. From the Pacer side, they had 20 turnovers and it still felt like they were going to make a run, even with like five minutes left with no, literally nobody playing well except Matheran. I was like, ah, I still feel like they might get going here. Uh, it was a bad Halliburton game. You know, a lot of smoke, including on this podcast and all of the ringer podcasts about the big leap He was taking and how great he was playing and it just felt like he was flustered from
Starting point is 00:16:10 The get-go with all the pressure my guess is that he'll be fine in game six Yeah, I mean and that this is one of those I looked at the tape I can't believe how bad I was I'm gonna do this this this and this and it will be a different Albert It would be my guess he was the making the big leap and then he took the big shit and that happens sometimes. We saw SGA, the MVP of the league and what was it? Game three, you know, lay a big fat egg. It happens. When you start talking about like top 20 guys, top 15 guys, top 10 guys, once we go higher up the list, what, what separates the top five,
Starting point is 00:16:44 top seven guys, like you noticed that one SGA game when he wasn't very good in game three, but for the most part, every single playoff game, he's been between 30 and 38 a game and consistently scoring and consistently getting his shot. And you just always know you can count on him. You know, when you go through all the best guys in the league, that's usually in place, which is why even with somebody like Edwards, people are so disappointed that, oh, what happened to him in second half of game four? And why did he seem so comfortable?
Starting point is 00:17:13 Because there's, he's being held to a certain standard. I feel like Halliburton had at least was knocking on the door of that level. So for him to suck tonight is just like, that's not great. And now he's going to take it tomorrow on the shows. There's going to be a lot of, they need Tyrese Halliburton to step up. He's going to be the step up guy tomorrow. Who was that? Who was the step up guy heading in? Who was the voice you just did?
Starting point is 00:17:36 That was my generic ESPN voice. It was all the collage of the voices. All, every one. I want them to have a segment called step up where they just, each of them just screams at the TV that somebody needs to step up. And then at the end of the segment, they all just look at each other, and they tell each other to step up.
Starting point is 00:17:53 Why are you stepping on our content? This could easily be a Ringer hottest take style podcast. 10 minute segment, anyone in the world, you know? Like world leaders. Who needs to step up? The new pope, anybody. Like it could be. The Who needs to step up? The new pope, anybody. Democrats need to step up! Wow, what an idea.
Starting point is 00:18:09 Lord have mercy. They definitely actually do need to step up. But, Parma Plus's main screen needs to step up because I can't find Mission Impossible. Whoever's doing the UI on those things definitely needs to step up. It's a disgrace. Well anyway, I think Tyrese, but long story short, Tyrese Halliburton might need to step up.
Starting point is 00:18:27 Yes. There is a version of a Tyrese Halliburton game where he shoots seven times and is still awesome. He's done that before plenty of times. This was not that. I think it was, it was distressing how little he was even looking at the rim and the times where even he would turn the corner on the Knicks defense. And it's just like, he's, he, it looks like he's waiting for the breakdown to make it an easy
Starting point is 00:18:47 pass for the layup that frankly has like been there for the last three games or so. But if you're that guy, if you're a top 20 guy, you are the breakdown. Like that, that's your job to create that and to capitalize on it. And the fact that he wasn't really looking to score for, I would say at least two, maybe two and a half quarters, it just wasn't enough for where the Pacers were. How's, do you think it's cause Michael Imperiali was there? You think he was psyched out? It's one thing to play in front of Chalamet, Spike Lee, some of the stars, but
Starting point is 00:19:14 when Christopher's in the house, I don't know, it's a different level. Anything is possible. You don't want Christopher going to the trunk. That's for sure. He is Paul. Paul is dead, right? Paul Walnuts is dead? I believe so.
Starting point is 00:19:28 That would have been the next move, is to put courtside just all the Sopranos characters, the living ones, just all in a row. But some of the key ones are dead, but I still think that would be a little intimidating. Maybe get all the mafia movies. Can we pour one out for Miles Teller, though, who was next to Timothee Chalamet,
Starting point is 00:19:44 couldn't even get the broadcast shout out. Like he was just the normal guy sitting to the side of Timothee Chalamet. That's Miles Teller. Tough beat. He's in Top Gun Maverick for God's sakes. He's in Whiplash. He's been in some big movies. He was just in a movie that led Apple TV. He should have at least gotten a Chiron. That's what I'm saying. He's at Chiron level at bare minimum.
Starting point is 00:20:03 I agree with that. My son was I'm saying. He's at Chiron level at bare minimum. I agree with that. My son was admiring Chalamet's fit. He likes the Chromeheart and Nix pants. We thought it was a great job. He thinks Chalamet's done a great job with the fits during the games. I'm not gonna bring him in later for a fit thing. Brunson, 6-4-9 in the first quarter, laid the smack down.
Starting point is 00:20:27 I had in the Taylor fade by my weekly prop, I did over 30 and a half, because I thought Brunson was gonna have a big game. I think he finished with like 34. But one of the reasons I thought that was because I didn't think Towns was gonna be good in this game. So whatever they got from Towns, I wasn't expecting. I'm not positive.
Starting point is 00:20:42 The Pacers were expecting either. But this Brunson thing, his eyes just light up from towns. I wasn't expecting. I'm not positive. The Pacers were expecting either, but, um, this Brunson thing, his eyes just light up on Nemhards. You mentioned it before, Rob. It's like the Nemhards Pacers and then the non-Nemhards. When he sees Hal Burton, it's, he looks like house passing an Arby's. Hey, hey, no, that's a compliment house. I know I'm glad that was an excited grow. Hey, it was a stomach growl. It was, I met somebody else who loved Arby's and I always bring you up when somebody else likes Arby's because you're my number one person. Do you know each other?
Starting point is 00:21:14 We should. I just feel like it's almost like houses apart owner and Arby's even though he owns nothing, but I've invested enough believe me. Believe me. Thank God for Arby's. Anyway, Jalen Brunson, Rob, go. I don't know how to come back from Arby's. No, look, there really is only one pacer who can guard him in this series. He's currently kind of injured clearly,
Starting point is 00:21:39 at least being held back to some degree. I thought it was a sign of, it was representative of Indy's desperation that Ben Matheran was not only like the only guy who could score, but the only guy they would even trust to guard Jalen Brunson during critical stretches of the second half. Like they gave him that job too, because like Shepard can't do it. Nemhard cannot do it. Those guys have no impact honestly on Jalen Brunson. And they're good defenders who fight through screens and can be very effective against any other kind of scorer.
Starting point is 00:22:10 But for some reason, Jalen Brunson can just kind of bump them off. He can shoot right over the top of Nemhard. They don't bother him at all. And so if we are watching which injuries are real and which ones are exaggerated, Carltony Towns, clearly good enough to drive and still be a dominant player in this game.
Starting point is 00:22:24 Aaron Eastman has to be a fully operational member of the Pacers rotation if they're gonna slow down Jalen Brunson at all Well the recipe for the Knicks to come back from 3-1 house If you're doing the 2004 Red Sox, don't let us get one. Don't let us get to whatever Kevin Moller said It's easier to do it when you have five and seven at home You win five you have five and seven at home. You win five, you have to go on the road and take six. But when the Celtics tried to do this last round, no Jason Tatum, zombie, poor Zingas, Sam Hauser and a sprained ankle and the Knicks played the best game they've had and were completely healthy.
Starting point is 00:23:01 This, uh, this Pacer situation, Niece Smith, not healthy, this, uh, this pacer situation, knee Smith, not healthy Turner and Nemhard coming off terrible games, Pacers bench, not doing that. Well, how burn coming off a bad game and weirdly some pressure for a team up three. Two. Um, what do you think the line is for the series now house? Don't look. Oh, this is a great question. Yeah. Uh, the Pac a great question. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:25 Uh, the Pacers are definitely still favored. Let me think about this. Uh, plus for the, for the Knicks, the Pacers are favorited minus two 20. Rob, I can't remember if you know how to do ads. I'll let you have a guess if you want. I'm going to say they're more than that. I think it's probably more of like a minus five or six hundred. Oh, look at the big balls on Brad.
Starting point is 00:23:53 Minus three seventy for the Pacers. What's the difference? We are right in between the two of us. Well, the Knicks were minus five today, which jumped out at me immediately because I thought it was going to be like a minus two. So Vegas obviously and Fandl and everybody else probably liked some of the metrics that were going. I do think they saved Neesmith a little bit. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:15 This is one of those you feel it out. Oh, I didn't realize Miles Turner was gonna be hot in this game. Ooh, I didn't realize Walker was gonna make three threes. But none of those things were happening and Carlisle was like, was going to be hot in this game. Ooh, I didn't realize Walker was going to make three threes. Um, but none of those things were happening in Carlisle was like, all right. I'll save my guy for a, for Saturday night. Here's the, here's, oh, I'll save this. We're going to take a break for the podcast.
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Starting point is 00:26:28 Order now. Alcohol in select markets. Product availability may vary by region. See app for details. Um, here's the best thing about tonight. We get a game on Saturday night now. I'm so happy. It's like we weren't going to basketball for a week.
Starting point is 00:26:43 Yeah. What are we going to do? I'm so happy. I'm going to order Arby's. How about that? I will have the meats. Me and Jalen Brunson will have the meats. The Jalen Brunson thing that I wanted to observe is that the, you know, it's a very stupid observation that I made at the top of the show, but they created their force of will. They dictated their pace by the high percentage shots that Jaylen Brunson gets and takes.
Starting point is 00:27:09 And the same thing is true of, of towns. I want for the record to say out loud, I tailed the Brunson wager, the Brunson prop bill, of course, my, my, uh, my token, my, I'm going to, you know, cash that in, um, but it my token, my, I'm going to, you know, cash that in. Um, but it was based on the idea that towns might be compromised. He wasn't compromised, but it was based on that. And we also had as a narrative, Nick's aren't going to go out like this. This, not this, this next team with this Nick's fandom, what they've
Starting point is 00:27:40 done in these playoffs, they're not going out with the whimper. They're going to come home and show pride. JJ John Distremski made a great case for why the Knicks would show up and show out tonight. And they, they, they did that. And I do think, I mean, let me get your guys take on this. I've said this a couple of times and I think it's, you know, reasonable argument. I think the Knicks have the best five in the East and you know, that doesn't necessarily mean they're the best team in the East, but I think they have the best five in the East. We heard about this on the phone today because the plus minus stats for the
Starting point is 00:28:16 five man units do not back this up. And yet I don't think you're wrong. Well, I think this is why I think you're wrong. Uh, which five are you talking about? Cause I think there's, you know,'re wrong. Which five are you talking about? Yeah, you know like is that the Mitchell Robinson five or the Josh Hart five? It's definitely the hard five But you know the stats say it's the Mitchell Robinson. I understand the better one. I get it I'm not I understand the point but I just you know when they they have six they have six guys They have five and a half guys because what you get out of Mitchell Robinson is half a game. You get 20 minutes or you know, uh, you get two thirds out of a, out of a minutes wise out of him.
Starting point is 00:28:52 Um, but I, I, I would stack this next five up against every other five in the, in, in the East. And I think that's an element of, of why we're sitting here at this point with a game on Saturday night. Can I give you another element? Let's hear it. This is going to make Rob feel awkward, but this is really how I think that's an element of why we're sitting here at this point with a game on Saturday night. Can I give you another element? Let's hear it. This is gonna make Rob feel awkward.
Starting point is 00:29:09 But this is really House's love language. I'm terrified of whatever you're about to say. I honestly have no idea. I hope it involves Frank from White Lotus. No, no, no, Frank is not involved. You know, if Indiana wins one more game, we're gonna have an Indiana versus Oklahoma City finals. But if the Knicks win the series, we'll have the Knicks in the finals.
Starting point is 00:29:31 And if you've noticed from ratings and interest, it's a little more interesting nationally when there's a New York team in the finals. I'd like to bring you back to the year 2002, game six, Portland Lakers. I'm sorry, game six, Sacramento Lakers in Sacramento. If Sacramento wins, we're going to have a Sacramento New Jersey finals. And David Stern was like, not on my watch. This is not happening. We are not letting this happen.
Starting point is 00:30:07 And we did not get a Sacramento New Jersey finals. And I'm just, I just, I just, I'm being, I just be careful. Let's be careful out there for game six. If you're wagering, just be careful. Put two fouls on Neesmith pretty quickly. I don't know. Conspiracy bill. I'm not going to dress up like conspiracy bill, but it just.
Starting point is 00:30:28 How sweet the 2002 game six. We've talked a lot about over the years. I'm just saying it's in the back of my head. It's in the deep recesses of the back of my head. Well, I guess when I remembered it, when, when Dallas won the effing lottery two weeks ago on my birthday, I remembered that 2002 game six. Weird things happen.
Starting point is 00:30:48 Miracles happen. Weird things. Miracles. It's true. Miracles. NBA miracles. Miracles. Like Aaron Newsmith having three fouls six minutes in the first quarter.
Starting point is 00:30:57 Some miracles can happen. You just never know. So we'll have this, this Indiana game Saturday night, which will be, I'm trying to think if there's been a bigger Indiana game since the 2000 finals, I'm going to say no. Right. I think the only thing that would even come close is when they had a chance to upset the LeBron calves, you know, like they were in some of those series and
Starting point is 00:31:20 had some pressure packed games. Right. They never had a chance to, if we win this game at home, we go to the finals. I don't think they've been in that situation because I was thinking during the Pistons when they're 03 or 04 range, they played the Pistons a couple of times. But yeah, I think what was the game where Teysha and Prince blocked Reggie Miller from behind? The chase down thing.
Starting point is 00:31:44 But this is the biggest Indiana Pacers game I think since the 2000 finals. Game four, ironically, the Kobe becoming a special player game in OT after Shaq founds out. So we'll see. I guess my question if you're Rob, if you're Rick Carlisle, how many, how many Pacers do you trust right now? Because we always see the number starts dropping as the playoff series goes along. How many of these guys do you actually trust? I thought in this game you could see his patience
Starting point is 00:32:15 being tried with Obie Toppin, especially in the first half. Obie is making some- Will you try to dribble through the two guys? You know, that's not gonna get you on Rick Carlile's best side, I would say. I thought TJ McConnell had some bad, momentum halting plays that, but you kind of have to play him. Like Tyrus Halliburton needs a rest at some point and Nem Hard hasn't been good enough
Starting point is 00:32:33 to be your backup point guard on any kind of full time basis. Like is Thomas Bryant going to have to continue to play? How bad is that Tony Bradley hip? I cannot believe I'm talking about Tony Bradley in the Eastern Conference Finals. Who would have thought that Tony Bradley hip injury would be a I'm talking about Tony Bradley in the Eastern Conference Finals. Who would have thought a Tony Bradley hip injury would be a game six subplot? But you know what? The Thomas Bryan minutes are that bad.
Starting point is 00:32:50 That it becomes a subplot. And so, yeah, I think the guys who are definitely gonna be in there, like Shepard is gonna be in there. He's earned the right to have some minutes. He plays conservatively enough. I think he's gonna be in the mix. Matheran, clearly, over the last two games, has been one of the Pacers best players.
Starting point is 00:33:05 I'm a little worried about Nemhart at this point though, because in order to not play those bench guys, you have to stretch the starters more. And Neesmith, we'll see what state he's in physically. Obviously Siakam and Halliburton, and I think Turner on a good night, which these have mostly been good nights for him. You wanna play those guys a lot.
Starting point is 00:33:21 Andrew Nemhart didn't just struggle tonight. He struggled now for like a week. It's been- It's three awful games in a row, three awful games in a row, shooting like 20, 23, 24 percent over those three games. Like and doing stuff like drives to the layup to get a layup, but then kicking it out when like there was one place specifically where Jalen Brunson was the only guy who could come over and try to stop him. And Brunson was coming and he kicked it back out to the corner.
Starting point is 00:33:46 It's like, just lay it up, just get two points. I think he's got some. He's playing basketball. That's what I was thinking. I felt a little yipsy. Very concerning from that perspective. Well, I'm going to make you a once in a lifetime offer right now, both of you. Um, as you know, Zach Lowe and I cleaned up on New Smith Island.
Starting point is 00:34:04 It's been a revelation for us. Just unbelievable how it worked out. It's been, sorry to everybody, we had to turn away in the condo projects. Jaris Walker Island. I did buy some property. Not tonight, during the season. Every time he's played, I liked him. And it's gotten to the point where I don't really understand why he's not playing more because I feel like he's at, I'm sure, listen, I haven't watched nearly enough Pacers games as the actual Pacers fans, I'm sure like, Oh my God, this fucking guy thinks Walker should play more.
Starting point is 00:34:38 I don't know if I'm right or wrong, but I like when he's out there and I think he does good stuff and I wonder if we see him more in game six instead of the Thomas Bryant minutes. Do you just go a little smaller? It's not like what's Robinson, he's going to hurt you on the offensive boards, but it's not like he's going to be posting up whoever it is. They don't post them up. And I wonder if they just try to go small. Cause Walker's a dog.
Starting point is 00:35:00 Like he'll, he'll, he'll fight anybody and fight for position. And I don't know. He seemed really comfortable shooting a couple of those threes tonight. I thought he was playing hard. Am I crazy, Rob? You're not? Well, here's the thing.
Starting point is 00:35:14 If you are crazy, we're crazy together because I have been on the, could Jairus Walker be a playoff X factor for the Pacers? It sounds like you've just bought a plot of land. Look, the land has been bought. My financial manager has said, like, I am ruining his professional reputation
Starting point is 00:35:29 if I continue to buy land on Jarris Walker Island. Wow. I didn't realize. I saw some lights on down in the island. I didn't know who else that was. I'm a believer. You know, these lights are pretty bright, though. These now crucial must-win games to get you to the NBA finals I thought he played pretty well in this one and and again like he's he's gonna make some spotty decisions here and there if he
Starting point is 00:35:52 Tries to do too much with the ball, but I thought in this game. He was kind of in that nuggets championship season Christian Brown zone of like you go to that spot and you stand there and if you dribble the ball we Will take you out of the game and you're going to try hard on defense and you're going to fly around. And he was like, he brought some of the athleticism that I thought, you know, if you're taking OB Toppin off the floor, cause you don't like some of the choices he's making, you bring in Jairus Walker and you're getting some of it back. Maybe not OB Toppin level athleticism, but some real pop and some length. How's she calling your broker or are you too overextended with the three wizards rookies
Starting point is 00:36:24 when you bought all the stock? I mean, the Bob Carrington Island, Bob Carrington. I have, I have a J green. I mean, you know, uh, Johnson, AJ Johnson, AJ Johnson. You gotta remember what his name is. If you're going to have stock in the island, what about Johnny Bryant? Are you, are you leveraged on him? No, no, nothing.
Starting point is 00:36:43 And he never bought any, any, uh, property on Johnny Davis Island? No, no, nothing. And he never bought any, any property on Johnny Davis Island. No, no, I, uh, he called in fake fire alarms for Johnny Davis Island, trying to get the island shut down. I, I, yeah, I, I, I can't say out loud what I, what I really prayed for, but, yeah, even though it's late night. Um, house, are you with us on Walker or no? I like it. Look, uh, I would be interested in getting some of the, um, what's it called?
Starting point is 00:37:12 Second spectrum. I want to see some of the data about him on towns. I'd like to see the idea of him on towns because towns is too comfortable. Why are you, why are we letting him? Yeah. Like that's what I'm saying. Like a smaller guy should just get in and try to make Townes basically bowl him over.
Starting point is 00:37:30 Yeah, yeah. Just, I mean, he's got the athleticism. I feel the same way about Toppin. Why isn't Toppin trying to defend Townes? Now, maybe that's true. Maybe there are some matchups there that I'm not like catching as they're occurring in real time. And you certainly don't want Obie top and feel like he can take 10 effing field goal attempts in 18 minutes. That's not permissible You don't get 10 Obie. You don't get 10. You don't get more than you know Tyree Tallahburton, okay, please Can I speak for the second spectrum stats real quick, uh, about
Starting point is 00:38:06 Jarius Walker on towns? He's not ready for all that. That's too much. That's, that's kind of it. Like that's the rotation. I mean, well, oh yeah, I think Siakam is going to continue. He's, he's gotten some chances. He honestly has not done any better than Turner has.
Starting point is 00:38:22 Um, I thought it was the problem with the Pacers in game six is there's some, a couple of foul trouble guys that they don't really have plan B's for. See, Ockham is one of them. Nie Smith, I think is another one than Halbert obviously, but, um, I don't know. I mean, I think we know the way that the Pacers guard downs in this series and it's, you make him a defensive liability or you foul him off the floor.
Starting point is 00:38:43 Like those are really the two options for them. And they've been pretty effective both throughout most of this series. It's just when he does manage to stay on the floor, he can get by Turner so easily that it creates problems everywhere. Can we go pick a picture on the Knicks for a second? Because I feel like I've watched six months of Knicks playoff games at this point pretty intently. Don't ask why, but I really enjoyed that pit, that piston series. What do you mean? Don't ask why. It's good basketball. It's fun. It's interesting.
Starting point is 00:39:13 Are the Knicks, we always talk about good hangs, like we even called the Amy Poehler podcast, good hang. Are the Knicks a good hang? It's just for casual basketball fans who don't care. You know, obviously other than the betting pieces, but is it fun to watch this next team? Cause I can't, I haven't really totally decided yet. I, I find myself more aggravated by them than enjoying them with towns, like all the facial expressions and him calling Brunson, um, the cuts to Tibbs. He has the same look on his face all the time. It just looks like he's trying to pass a kidney stone. Brunson's never smiling.
Starting point is 00:39:48 All that the bridges, the fact that nobody seems to realize that every time he goes to his spot and jumps backwards and everybody forgets that that's his jump shot every time. Mitchell Robinson just bowling guys over from behind getting offensive rebounds. I just find myself frustrated watching them and I have no skin in the game. I think I've seen too many Knicks games, Rob. I think they're pretty fun.
Starting point is 00:40:11 Honestly, I think this is a cat litmus test to me because you're right, some of the personalities on the court are not the most emotive. Like, oh, Gianninova, you're not gonna get a lot out of during the game. No, blank slate. But I enjoy the cat experience, the ups and the downs, the dramatic turns.
Starting point is 00:40:26 Like I am here to see like every night, can this guy stay on the floor? Can this guy get out of his own way? Can he be the all NBA caliber player? He proved to be this season that we all know he's capable of being. Can he be that when you need it? And those have been some of the most satisfying moments
Starting point is 00:40:41 of this Knicks run, are the moments where cat steps up. I think he's right, Hess. I agree, how about this? I fucking love this Knicks run are the moments where Kat steps up. I think he's right, House. I agree. How about this? I fucking love these Knicks. I'm into them. Wow. Okay.
Starting point is 00:40:50 I'm glad we're talking about this. Great time. I think, cause I think I'm bitter about the Celtics thing and I think that's tainted. I just, I'll just put all cards on the table. I might still be bad. Go ahead, House. Especially when they're at MSG. Um, especially when they're at MSG, I think that they have engendered this love and, and, you know,
Starting point is 00:41:14 being reminded of what a great venue, like historic, presidential, president important basketball has happened at MSG presidential, presidential, all of them, all the Ps. Probably a president there. All the Ps happen at MSG. But it's been a really fun ride watching this team who I think, you know, the off season stuff was a goddamn miracle. How did they get Mikhail Bridges and Carl Anthony Towns? How did they do that? They traded every asset they had. That's how they got them.
Starting point is 00:41:47 It was effing worth it. They're in the Eastern Conference Finals in year one, and I think it's like a three year run. And they can, I think, yeah. I mean, the combination of where they are. See, I feel like everything's on the table. You could tell me this is Tibbs' last game at Coach on Saturday. You could tell me they is Tibbs' last game at Coach on Saturday.
Starting point is 00:42:05 You could tell me they're gonna have Giannis next year. I'm ready for anything with them. This is the East, though. You know, like, there's that thing where you write your name on the SAT and you get 200 points. You play in the Eastern Conference, like, that's 14 wins.
Starting point is 00:42:16 41 wins. I think you're gonna be all right right there. Yeah, that's a good point. I will say one thing. Their offensive efficiency all season was so good. House, I agree with you on MSG, and it's fun to have the celebrities there. I will say one thing. Their offensive efficiency all season was so good. House, I agree with you on MSG and it's fun to have the celebrities there. I will say this. I have noticed this over and over again, the people courtside around the area,
Starting point is 00:42:33 a lot of people on the phones. And I think the Knicks fans have to really police. I'm not saying it's not like the Chalamet guys, but there'll be somebody shooting free throws and you'll see behind and it'll be in the front row. And it'll be somebody shooting free throws and you'll see behind and it'll be in the front row and it'll be six people Just texting and it's like you're at game five of the fucking Eastern Conference finals And you guys have a reputation as being some of the best basketball fans in the earth and you're sitting on the wood Get off your fucking phone
Starting point is 00:42:57 Well, plus your phone it could be Mitchell Robinson shooting in which case it's a hazard You gotta be careful. I get hit by a field goal. All right, so who wins game six? It's in 48 hours. Pacers. Pacers. I don't think I'd bet it. Either way, I think it's a stealer. Should we wait to see who the refs are?
Starting point is 00:43:21 It's something I'm definitely gonna do on Saturday. Did we get a Tony brothers? Tony brothers? What's wrong with Tony? Calls a solid game. Now I need to think about it some more. The extender? I'll say this.
Starting point is 00:43:37 I think it'd be really tough to beat this Pacers team three days, three games in a row with how one of those games they're're gonna have a really good offensive game, one of those games Carlisle's gonna figure out something. But I think I'd probably lean Pacers because I just think their style, especially at home, I believe in it. But it does, the knee spent 15 minutes today does scare me a little bit.
Starting point is 00:44:03 It should, I think that combined with them are being this bad. Like that's, that is a little bit spooky, but Turner will be better at home. Turner will be better. How about better home today was dying for the random TJ McConnell. I'm just going to take over a quarter for six minutes, but he did the opposite. Um, but he has that in him, which they need. Try and think from a Nick standpoint, probably hitting a bunch of threes.
Starting point is 00:44:28 Brunson has to be around 30. They need something major from towns and they need the bench guys to be decent would be the recipe. You guys both talked about OKC and you're on podcast this week, but why do you think people are so begrudgingly careful about calling them a great team? Because they're young, I think, mostly. I think people are always hesitant. If they just don't fit the profile?
Starting point is 00:44:52 Yeah. I mean, profile-wise, they're closer to the Iverson Sixers or something. But if you supercharge their defense and also supercharge Allen Iverson, and that's not a formula that we're used to like wrapping our heads around, you know, a defense first team that is this defense forward in the modern NBA is, is a bit of an anomaly on this stage. I told house this on the phone today. They've played nine playoff games at home. They won eight of them by 51, 19, 43, seven, 32, 36, 15 and 30.
Starting point is 00:45:28 And they lost one game to Denver and game one, they're up nine with three minutes left and lost the game by two. This is about as dominant of a home team as we've seen through three rounds. And I think that crowd, I think they're young guys are more comfortable at home to begin with. It's usually when they go up eight to 10 and their defense takes it over. I just think like, I was saying a house, I really regret not just banging the blowout odds for every game because we should have seen it. Because especially the history of the playoffs, young teams like this built around
Starting point is 00:45:55 a talented guy, they usually kind of kick everybody's ass like this. And I wonder like even watching the game tonight, I'm just hard pressed to think either of those teams have much of a chance, right? I mean, look at the way the Pacers responded to Nick's level defensive pressure. And think about the decisions that sometimes Cat will make on the move or OG or McHale Bridges will make on the move as they try to navigate
Starting point is 00:46:18 through the lane and they're trying to make those connecting passes you have to make. I don't see it. I think the Thunder should and will be a heavy favorite against either of these teams. They deserve that. They are a great team. They're an all time team kind of like hiding in plain sight. All that is a hundred percent true. And I will be banging hard every one of their home games
Starting point is 00:46:40 and playing alt spreads and everything. But on the perception question, I think, you know, it's right to think about this whole season in context. The league kind of has a role in this. Like the league isn't out there promoting SGA. It wasn't back in October. We were looking at- We said this all year.
Starting point is 00:47:04 We've all done it on our, I remember doing a whole monologue about this, about, you know, LeBron and Curry, we love those guys, but it's time to start pushing the new dudes and they're just over and over again, hinging on LeBron and Curry on these Saturday night ABC games. It's not like they didn't know. Okay. See, it was going to be good house. They're over under was like 61 wins.
Starting point is 00:47:25 The thing that I shared with you, we were talking earlier. I'm interested in Rob's opinion. Um, SGA didn't help himself in the Olympics. Like, remember the, the, the Olympics did sort of, you know, give everybody a, a big burst of basketball in August. And it was high level basketball. The competition was incredible and it took an amazing like end of legacy kind of game by Steph, another career defining legacy defining game by Steph to put
Starting point is 00:47:57 them to night night and SGA in Canada was forecasted to make a nice little run and they made a run again right to the toilet because they stunk. They stunk bad. They were not good. Jamal Murray was horrendous. SGA and Lou Dort, I mean they were loaded. That Canadian team was good and they always are better. They always are. I feel like I've been waiting. They always are. Yeah, my entire adult life for Canada basketball to be a real minted thing.
Starting point is 00:48:26 And it's just, it never pans out. No matter who's on the roster, they're always quite talented. It's an incredible pipeline of basketball ability and skill and development. And for whatever reason, they just do not play well in international play. That's why they're not good enough to be our 51st state, Rob. Wow. Okay. This is why we keep projecting their resume. Step up Canada.
Starting point is 00:48:43 Step up. That's why we keep projecting their resume. Step up Canada. Step up. So SGA in 16 playoff games this year, 29.8 points a game. And I think that even would have been better, but that a lot of these games have been blowouts. He's playing almost three minutes a game, more than three minutes a game, less than he did last year in the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:48:59 He's now at his last 26 playoff games. He's at 30 a game. Which look, the stats are a little skewed. It's a little like late nineties baseball steroids, just cause the pace is different, points are up. But if you're a guard scoring 30 a game for a long sample size, I think that might even go up in the finals. And in some of these games, just getting any shots he wants in the biggest moments, it's
Starting point is 00:49:26 really, really impressive. What he did those first three rounds was as impressive as, I don't know, anything I've seen from a two guard in the last 25 years. It's up there with any of Kobe's playoff runs. I don't want to put it with the Wade 06 because what Wade did in the finals especially, that was just him by himself just willing them. But it's way up there. I don't think he's a finished product yet.
Starting point is 00:49:54 Do you, Rob? It feels like we're still like 90% there. He's a different player than he was six weeks ago. His development through these playoffs has been a huge story and part of the reason they're here is his ability to adapt to the variety of defenses that have been thrown at him. Like you would think if you're someone like Shea, you've seen everything, but you kind of haven't until you get into these seven game dog fights over and
Starting point is 00:50:15 over against dramatically different teams. I think he's aced kind of all those tests. Like he's had moments where this game in crunch time, maybe I don't love the shot selection, this game, maybe the percentages aren't there, but on balance, you just see the line going up and up and up. And from a founder perspective, what more could you ask for than that? There's been some revisionist history house. And I even might've been guilty on it on this pot a couple of times recently.
Starting point is 00:50:39 No, just, I think we all liked the trade when it happened. And now it seems like the worst trade of all time, the Paul George and the SJ and the picks, but when it happened, we were all like, that's amazing. Nobody, the Quippers were dead in the water. This was the way that they could get Kawhi Leonard, who had just won the finals MVP for Toronto. And basically they're trading all this stuff for Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. And they didn't want the Lakers to get him.
Starting point is 00:51:04 And Balmer was an owner for five years and he had to do this to keep the Lakers from getting Kawhi Leonard. And also like this made them the favorites to win the title in 2020. So they gave up a lot, but I, to me that it's not as bad as the Durant trade, which I think when they, when the sons did that one, we were like, man, that's a lot. I get why they did it, but holy shit. And you have no outs now after this trade with the Clippers, it was like, they had one, one way now you could argue.
Starting point is 00:51:34 Should they have played poker with Kauai and just been like, look, we're about just signed with us, we have all these assets, we're going to be able to keep building around this and just kind of talk them into it because it didn't seem like I want to play with the Lakers. But I don't know. I, I, that trade, it's easy to say five years after the fact, that's a complete catastrophe because it is, but I think the reasoning behind it was, was solid. What do you think, House?
Starting point is 00:51:58 I thought it was a worthwhile gamble at the time under the circumstances and in the context and you just kind of laid it out. But the, you know, the, the real animus there, uh, driving animus to driving force was Balmer trying to do something with that franchise. Like, right. Invigorate, not even reinvigorate them, invigorate them, invigorate. Exactly. Right. And that's fair.
Starting point is 00:52:21 Like he, he's the owner. He's the guy with the money and they are trying to do a thing. So they try, they had to pay a price for it. It just turned out that the price exceeded what they, um, imagine. And that that happened. And SGA was turned out to be a, oh, I think a way better player than anyone expected, even though we all liked them. Yes.
Starting point is 00:52:39 Um, and they also nailed the picks, Rob, which like you look at all the picks new Orleans got or no, the Orleans got from the Lakers and it's sometimes you know, the picks sometimes you don't like they took Jalen Williams at the 12th pick, right? And he's the second best player in the team. They tanked for three, four months in to get the Chet Holmgren thing. But they also had to get the ping pong balls in the top three, which is how it's going to test.
Starting point is 00:53:05 Doesn't always work even after you spend the whole year trying to lose. Oh, it's true. So there was some luck with them. They made an awesome trade and the Jalen Williams pick was great and they were lucky to get in the lottery. They smartly took Chad. Everything they did was super smart, but that trade, you know, I don't think you can look at it and be like, oh my God, that's the worst trade ever.
Starting point is 00:53:28 I would, I would go the other way. I would say that's like one of the best trades ever. Turning Paul George into all the stuff they got. All they gave up was Paul George. All the stuff they got back. It shouldn't be discussed as worst. It should be discussed as best. Of incredibly worthwhile gamble for the thunder, given their circumstance to recoup all that for
Starting point is 00:53:48 Paul George. And they knew they had to get rid of Russ too. Yeah. And for the Clippers, I still completely get it. You put yourself back in those circumstances, it still makes sense to me. Like the premise still makes sense. It's a great trade. I think honestly, like that trade has been amazing and we've spent, I would say, the last maybe 18 months or so debating on and off. Do the Thunder need to make some kind of move? Should they cash in some of these picks that they've stockpiled for another player? Is Jalen Williams going to be a good enough second star?
Starting point is 00:54:16 They made the big trade to get Shay and they did not make the big mistake of trading away and disrupting what, as we're saying, is clearly a great team is clearly a championship worthy team. Like they invested in that project and they're fucking there. Like they are right there on the precipice of doing everything they set out to do. It's amazing. It's an amazing what if, cause if they lost to Denver, like I do think they'd be cashing in some chips. I mean, yeah, the sliding doors for them is what if Aaron Gordon doesn't hurt his
Starting point is 00:54:46 groin, I still think they probably went by 20, but I think that Denver team with healthy Aaron Gordon was Michael Myers. And they just were not, you were, you know, I think once Denver fell behind 15 in that game, they kind of knew. And that's been, I think you and I were talking about this today has the thing that's special about this OKC team behind the obvious stuff is they really do break teams during a series. And they, in all three series, the team they're playing against hit a point and
Starting point is 00:55:16 you could really feel it in that Minnesota series was 26 to nine. And it's like, this game's over. You're not coming back against OKC. Their defense is too good. It's, this is a wrap. You know where it's like, this game's over. You're not coming back against OKC. Their defense is too good. It's, this is a wrap. You know where it's going and you can kind of feel the energy from Minnesota go sideways and you know, they had limitations in that the Connolly thing was, I think. As the series went on, even, even more disastrous than we could have predicted. But the type of team that should be able to hang with them, unless you have somebody
Starting point is 00:55:43 like Jokic is a team that plays like Indiana. I just don't know if they have the horses, but the up and down pace, like let's get into track meet that 128 to 126 Minnesota game four. That to me is the model of how the Pacers can hang with them. But there's a reason the okay. See is minus seven 50 on Fandl to win the title right now. reason the okay. See is minus seven 50 on Fandl to win the title right now. Minus seven 50 house.
Starting point is 00:56:06 That's, that's like the biggest sense. You you're talking like warriors. I don't know. 2018. I am nothing, if not a creature of recency bias, you know, right in the, right in the, in the kisser, but the Pacers have no chance. They, I, this, that's a four one series because the thing that
Starting point is 00:56:34 okay. See did to Minnesota, which was strangle them like a Python when they go all the way up to the free throw line and say, Oh, you want to bring the ball up. Um, go ahead. When they go all the way up to the free throw line and say, Oh, you want to bring the ball up? Um, go ahead. Good. He's like, and they, and they, they start like, Hey, like, you know, mini trapping. Forget it. No chance.
Starting point is 00:56:54 They like saying is Indiana can do the flip side to okay. See it's not like, okay. See has like a real point card and you could try to do the same thing, but I just think okay. See his defense is better. Rob, who do you think, okay, see his defense is better. Rob, who do you think has a better chance from what's just, I'll give you either side. Nick's okay.
Starting point is 00:57:11 Nick's or Indiana going to the next round. I think there's no question Indiana has a better chance. The only way to beat the thunder is to be unbelievably precise with your passing. And you know, you have Tyrese Halliburton has these amazing 15 assists, zero turnover games. Overall, it's an incredibly low turnover offense. I suspect that would change if they meet in the NBA finals. I think the pressure ratcheting up is gonna be a totally different thing.
Starting point is 00:57:35 And it speaks to what you mentioned, Bill, about the way that the Thunder break teams, the way that they kind of break your spirit. I think a lot of it is game one, you go in, you think you know what they are, you see it, it's tough. You think, okay, we're going to go back, we're going to look at the film, we're going to figure out where the holes are. You look at the film and it's like, there kind of are no holes or they're vanishingly small. And whatever, however you think playing against the thunder is going to be, they are so much
Starting point is 00:57:59 faster and more frenetic than you anticipate. And so by the time you get to game three, it's like, I just don't think there's anything here. Like I don't know what the mechanism is, again, short of, as you said, having Nikola Jokic on your team, a guy who can see over the top of that entire defense and try to make 99th percentile passes out of it. Short of that, I honestly don't know what you do.
Starting point is 00:58:21 That's not to say that they're unbeatable. I just don't know what the formula is. Yeah, they cause turnovers that you see in like an eighth grade basketball game of just like that's long lab passes that just get picked off for a done. I'll give you one case for Indiana that I thought was interesting. I looked this up. Um, there's been 10 teams ever that have won 10 playoff games and averaged at least 28 assists a game. Here are the teams. The 85 Lakers won the title. 33.7 assists a game, by the way.
Starting point is 00:58:56 82 Lakers won the title. 84 Lakers went to a game seven in the finals. 80 Lakers won the title. game seven, the finals, 80 Lakers won the title. 86 Celtics won the title. Number six, all time Indiana. 86 Houston made the finals. 19 warriors should have won the title, made the finals. 87 Lakers won the title and the 17 warriors won the title. Those are our 10 teams that did that.
Starting point is 00:59:26 And that made me think like, maybe this Indiana team is a little more, uh, rare offensively than we're giving a credit for. And then they stink tonight. And that's that. That's why I waited 53 minutes to redo that list. It's all ready to lead with that. If they want tonight. Here's the thing we saw value and effort out of Minnesota. Um, you know, last night that you, you can try and score with Oklahoma City that your best bet is to like Score with them because they go they go gaps, you know where where they're just a little too happy We're taking shots that are just like comfortable and they'll go a couple minutes without making a bucket
Starting point is 00:59:57 I mean she can always always always get to the lane get inside the lane and and you know get a floater off or get to the to, get inside the lane and, and, you know, get a floater off or get to the, to the rim if he wants to. But, uh, we're old. We've seen a lot of great scores. Shea's way getting way up there for me. Way up there.
Starting point is 01:00:15 I can't believe how easily he gets whatever shot he wants, no matter how much the defense is throwing stuff at him. Like, you know, Kobe was more in that Jordan side of, and I think Wade was a little, Wade would just either go to the basket or he would shoot. He didn't have the three point shot. Uh, he was so athletic. He could always figure out a way to kind of bounce off people and get in. Shay, the way he navigates, it's honestly like watching a hockey player, the way
Starting point is 01:00:40 he kind of skates around until he gets what he wants and then he gets a shot. He wants, well, if you're going to do that, I'm going to say Gretzky. Like he moves that way. He moves angles. Like he has shoulder tilts to getting off his stuff where he's avoiding contact. And then the footwork to finish. And he always finishes. He always finishes the, the, whatever the great move was, which most guys,
Starting point is 01:01:06 this is Jason Tatum, was his biggest issue. He'd have these great moves and he wouldn't finish half the time. Shea finishes every time. He finishes every time. Crazy good finisher. Like the way that his length and the way he extends around the basket
Starting point is 01:01:17 is so hard to counter. The mid-range game is basically unstoppable no matter what your size is. Like there's not a lot you can do. And you can have the conversation about the way he's officiated, but he also plays through contact to shoot. This isn't James Harden pulling up through your arms
Starting point is 01:01:31 and throwing the ball literally straight up in the air. He is playing to complete plays, and he honestly will convert a lot of and ones, or kind of would be or should be and ones in a lot of cases. Yeah, I don't feel, when I was complaining a couple times about how he was being called, I don't feel like when I was complaining a couple of times about how he was being
Starting point is 01:01:45 called, I don't really blame him for some of the calls. It's just for whatever reason, reps gravitate towards certain styles. And for him, he has that way of when he drives, he can throw his left arm out. And they usually think it's a foul. Sometimes it isn't, but I don't think that's the reason. I mean, to me, it's the footwork and just his hit the herky jerky stuff, the stop start, his stop start stuff is the best. I feel like it's even gone up a level in the playoffs.
Starting point is 01:02:13 Um, I just have not seen a lot of guys like him. I really think like this start to finish year for him, they have a chance to go 84 and 18 for a season, which puts them in this whole like highest possible level of dudes. And he's just 32 a game night after night. And it's not like, Oh, he had that 75 point game that skewed his average. Every night it's 32, 38, 31, 35, 37, 29, 39. And it's just the steadiness of it, especially on a team where you kind of don't know who else is going to be steady
Starting point is 01:02:47 offensively. Like they haven't shot the ball well from three, all playoffs, Rob. And it hasn't mattered. No, I mean, they'll have select guys who will pop off here and there, but the defense is so good and Shay is so good. And I think in enough games, uh, Jaylen Williams has been so good that that triangulated together is enough to be an incredibly dominant potentially historically dominant playoff team. Like I think what you described about Shea being that rock solid as a score, like he
Starting point is 01:03:12 doesn't have these Tyrese Halliburton games. He doesn't even have the off Jaylen Brunson games where he'll shoot six for 19 from the field or whatever. Like it's just always going to be there. And the fact that you could bank on that every night as a team gives you immense freedom to play guys like Alex Caruso and stretch them as far as you can, like relative non-scores play guys like Lou Dort, even more than you would otherwise be able to get away with.
Starting point is 01:03:35 Have the odd game from Chet or he, you know, can't quite hit from three and isn't a factor offensively in the way you would want, but who cares because Shay has 39, like I think you just have so much you can make up for when you have those two things as your two tent poles. Shay putting in 30 plus, a defense like that, it's incredibly tough to beat. We say this every time a team, they have it obviously in the former games, but we always say you immediately start talking about how long could this go? Could this keep going? How many could they get? This feels like the safest bet to have like two in a row or three in a row since the Warriors.
Starting point is 01:04:09 Let's not get too far ahead of it. Because I still feel like they're probably going to be better next year. Everybody comes back. The only thing I could see changing is if they traded Lou Dort because they had to move some money around, but it's going to be the same team a year old or not. All of their young stars aren't even close to their primes except for Shea. So we'll see. I'm sure they're licking their chops, hoping this Indiana New York game goes seven and more and more people are playing semi-injured. Do you have a TV show recommendation for House once basketball ends for five days?
Starting point is 01:04:42 I'm here. I'm trying to figure it out. Everything's ending right now. I think we're about to check out Stick, the Owen Wilson golf comedy on Apple. I'm excited for that. I'm excited to see what's going on with Stick. That's right in my wheelhouse.
Starting point is 01:04:55 There we go. Got some stuff next month. The Bears coming back. Oh yeah. Can I say out loud that the last season of the Bear bored the shit out of me? I think it was a transition season. It's funny. You definitely can say it out loud that the last season of the bear bored the shit out of me? I think it was a transition season It's not I can say it out loud. It's also not a show that was meant to be binged
Starting point is 01:05:11 Yeah, it's a two. It should be to house. I have a show for you. I'm listening It's the the the Mormon the mom the mom talk moms on Hulu. Whatever that show is the reality show Yeah, it's the mom talk moms on Hulu, whatever that show is, the reality show. Oh, it's a reality show? Yeah. It's these mom talk moms. It's not a real high swipe show. It's, it's like Mormon, the Mormon something. Let me ask a question that's delicate on live YouTube.
Starting point is 01:05:35 No, no, no, be careful house. How much menopause is involved? No, they're younger. They're all like young Mormon women. Hold on. Is this the secret lives of Mormon wives? That's what it is, House. Hey! But wait, are they on Mom Talk?
Starting point is 01:05:51 They're on Mom Talk. They're Mom Talk. No, not on Mom Talk. They're called Mom Talkers. Mom Talk? What is that? I was watching with my daughter. This is her new favorite show. The mom part of TikTok. My daughter is hard, so I'm watching bad television shows like this again, but, uh, there was a swinging scandal house. Oh, I'm in. That's not a scandal if you're Mormon.
Starting point is 01:06:10 Oh, well, it was a scandal because no, well, that was the thing. It's it's it violated the religion. It also violated some friendships and there was some healing to do the Mormon. Like they, you know, um, some stuff was house. Let me tell The Mormon, like they, you know. Okay, I'm gonna stop. Some stuff was, let me tell you, it's in your wheelhouse. Okay, good, good, all right, I'm here for it. And then it's episode four, I'd be like, it would be cool if you guys all went on vacation
Starting point is 01:06:34 and then played games where you guys got into fights with each other, and of course they'd do that. So anyway, for me and my daughter, it was really a win all the way around. So that's my recognition. Is that what it's called? Secret lives of Mormon something.
Starting point is 01:06:47 Okay. Yeah. There you go. I don't get the categories in TikTok. I don't know if they're cranking out the secret live show at Rob's house. Secret lives of Mormon wives. That's what that's the title. Secret lives of Mormon wives. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:07:01 Okay. I have died inside during this segment, but we live on. We're going to be reborn tomorrow. Just get 40 minutes out of your wives. Yeah. Okay. I have died inside during this segment, but we live on. We're going to be reborn tomorrow. Just get 40 minutes out of your life. We might not have basketball in two days. That's fair. I remember trying to talk house into Laguna Beach 20 years ago. Mission accomplished.
Starting point is 01:07:18 Well, because he was already watching it. Didn't really have to bend my arm. Yeah. All right. Rob Behoni, are we gonna see you? When are we seeing you on group chat? Well, the good news is now that we have a Saturday game, we're gonna have a Saturday group chat.
Starting point is 01:07:31 So, tune in for us on Saturday night. Let's go. Let's go. We'll talk gambling. All right, we're recording this part of the podcast. It is late Thursday morning, Pacific time. I needed a Massachusetts guy on. It'd been a while.
Starting point is 01:07:43 I don't know. I've had a few over the years, but we got Albert Brear from Sports Illustrated. Also haven't talked football in a long time on this podcast. Haven't talked football with you on this podcast ever. And I sent you a text and I said, come up with a gimmick. I don't want to know what it is. Maybe it's a gimmick. Like you're buried in the NBA playoffs.
Starting point is 01:08:04 Stuff's happening in the NFL that you're probably not paying attention to. I'm here to tell you what that is. What gimmick did you come up with? That was actually exactly it, Bill. Oh great. I spoke to your gimmick that, that, that, yeah, you might be buried in the NBA playoffs. And so we're going to get everybody caught up on what's happening in the NFL who hasn't
Starting point is 01:08:23 been paying attention. And I got a sneaking suspicion. So we're going to get everybody caught up on what's happening in the NFL who hasn't been paying attention and I got a sneaking suspicion a couple of these you probably you probably paid some attention to but I actually had trouble narrowing it down to five, but I think I have You could do an honorable mention at the end if there's a couple honorable mentions like My honorable mention we did start like Jim mercy is passing. I think, you know, we should give some, uh, give some mention to that. And then Trey Hendrickson's contract situation. I didn't know if that was interesting enough, but that's still ongoing. Um, we'll save those for the end.
Starting point is 01:08:57 Come in with a bang first, and then we'll save the honorable mention for late. The other thing is like over the last 48 hours, I did learn what pink cocaine is. So I got that too. So this has been on a few of my past fan text threads. I also did not know what pink cocaine is, but I'm old. Yeah. Yes. The pond digs already. Is it a yacht scandal? Is it an embrolio? What is it? I mean, I don't know if it would, I mean, it's not like it's up there with like the love boat, you know, um, in Minnesota 20 years ago, that, that I think still a gold standard that probably put, I'd probably still put this behind like the SS Beckham and, um, in 2016, right. Right.
Starting point is 01:09:39 Right before the playoffs, but maybe it might be number three in my time covered in the NFL as far as boat scandals go. Yeah. Vrabel, Pat's coach, Mike Vrabel, the new most important coach of my life, he was just basically like, we're not talking about this and yadda yadda did a little bit and we'll see if the story does. All right. So let's go top five biggest things do first and then we'll do honorable mention.
Starting point is 01:10:03 So the biggest thing that has happened during the NBA playoffs, NFL related, that you think I should care about because I'm paying attention is what? The Steelers didn't sign a quarterback. What are they doing? They are pretty confident that their quarterback is going to be Aaron Rodgers. And I do think that there's like, I think there's actually some decent reason here for people who want to listen to it. And I think this goes back to like how you manage everything in the spring and trying to get their work done. And I think the logic for both sides here was
Starting point is 01:10:41 if he signs April 1st, and look, he's got personal stuff he's dealing with he's traveling and if he signs April 1st and says okay guys like I'm gonna go away for the next two months and when I'm back I'm back but like I got I got some personal stuff I gotta attend to I gotta I'm I've got travel planned. What you're inviting then is then whenever you start the off season program, you get into OTAs, anytime the media is there, it's going to be, where's Aaron? Where's Aaron? Where's Aaron? And so I think both sides wanted to avoid that. And so that's part of it. And then I think the other end of it, and this is like to me, almost the more interesting thing. I think Aaron was really affected by the way
Starting point is 01:11:25 his trip to Egypt was covered last year. And so going through all of that. Can we go backwards? How was it covered? I don't even remember. Well, if you remember, so he skipped the mini camp. The Jets had their mini camp at the end of June or in the middle of June last year
Starting point is 01:11:39 at the end of their off season program. And Aaron had been like pretty much a full participant in everything that they'd done up until then. Then he skipped the mini camp. It was something that they had predetermined he was going to do. But Salah said to him, okay, that's fine, but I still have to find you and I still have to hold you responsible.
Starting point is 01:11:59 I still have to say, this isn't an excused absence because we have to have a standard for everybody. It became like a two or three-week story. When they hit bumps in the summer and early in the fall, it continued to be a story. The sense I get is that Aaron was frustrated by that, and he didn't want to go through that again. I think part of the logic here for the Steelers,
Starting point is 01:12:21 for Aaron is just whenever you're in, you're all in, but not until then. And so I think the logic here between the Steelers and Aaron is like, okay, like once you show up, like we need all of you, bud. We need you all the way here. And so Aaron's taking care of everything he needs to take care of now.
Starting point is 01:12:43 And when he shows up, I do think he'll be all in. And again, I think a huge part of this is marked by what happened with the Jets last year. Can I recap your seemingly logical explanation? Yeah. So Aaron Rodgers was upset that when he left the team to go to Egypt during a time when all of his teammates were actually around and accountable to play for the Jets, that people covered that like it was a news story because he was the quarterback, the most famous person in the team. And he didn't like how that played out.
Starting point is 01:13:14 Because it was his news story. Yeah. So he didn't like that a news story was a news story. And now he is doing this, I don't know what I'm doing yet, but then he's also Showing up on Pat McAfee just a pining on stuff and kind of doing it every once like if I'm on the Steelers And I thought this guy I I thought Rogers was didn't want to get hit anymore last year I don't know how you felt Did you feel like he wanted to get hit anymore because I didn't know I think that there's an element of that But I think if you go back and you watch you see pieces of it
Starting point is 01:13:44 Like I'm telling you just pull up like a 10 minute highlight of their game against the Jaguars which nobody watched because it was the Jets and the Jaguars at the end of the season But if you pull up like a 10 minute YouTube highlight of that game at the end of December, you'll see it's like all still there You'll be like wow, like that looks like Aaron Rodgers in 2011, you know I mean, I didn't realize he was able to pull that off against the tanking Jaguars. Yeah, but it does look good. I'm just telling you, like, I understand. But like there were some real, there was like some high level shit in that game.
Starting point is 01:14:16 And then he and Devante Adams, they it it it's really it's it's all there. You know, so, you know, I So I think what's maybe most interesting about this whole thing to me is where the Steelers are and that they are so leveraged for right now. TJ Watt wants a new contract. He's turning 31. Minka Fitzpatrick's turning 29. I mean, Cam Hayward isn't on the back nine.
Starting point is 01:14:41 He's, I mean, basically walking to the clubhouse now. Like he, this is probably his last shot. They trade for DK Metcalf who's a third contract guy and has had some injury issues. This is a team, if this group's going to win, it has to be right now. I think a big part of the Steelers logic,
Starting point is 01:15:02 and I felt like all along they were going to be a contender for whatever big name quarterback became available, is Kirk Cousins a swing for the fences? I mean- I've been waiting on that one, by the way. Yeah, and to me, that's the thing with Kirk. It's like, Kirk is more, you may be more likely to hit a double with Kirk
Starting point is 01:15:21 and less likely to hit a home run, if that makes sense. Where with Aaron, maybe you and less likely to hit a home run, if that makes sense. Where with Aaron, maybe you're more likely to strike out, but at least you're swinging for the fences when you've been really average at that position since Ben Roethlisberger retired. So you're basically only in the torn Achilles recovery, old quarterback business at this point? I mean, what else is available though? I mean, if it wasn't going to be Stafford, right? Like, and I think Stafford was the most logical answer for a lot of different teams, you know? And the Raiders and Giants were really in that one. The Steelers dipped their toe in it.
Starting point is 01:15:55 Like, there just aren't that many options, you know? So it was a bad year to be looking at quarterback in the draft, especially, you know, if you didn't have the first overall pick. And the veteran options, again, like there were a lot of, I mean, the Rams, when the Rams, when the Rams made the offer they did to Stafford, back in March, it was with it in the back of their head. This guy doesn't want to leave Los Angeles
Starting point is 01:16:21 and this guy doesn't want to play for anybody but Sean McEvoy. Another feeling. And the Giants, and the Giants had the, yeah, want to leave Los Angeles and this guy doesn't want to play for anybody but Sean. And the Giants had the same sort of thing in the back of their head as they were pursuing them. Raiders too was like, yeah, we're really going after this, but this guy's going to wind up back in LA. So if you take Stafford off the table, then it really is.
Starting point is 01:16:43 It's Cousins, it's Rogers, and then, I mean, now after that you're talking about getting into like Joe Flacco territory. There just wasn't a lot out there. Just all probably washed up guys. So the Steelers died in the last month of the season. And one of the people, one of the reasons they died is T.J. Watt died as the season went along.
Starting point is 01:17:04 And the last, I don't know, 35, 40% of the people, one of the reasons they died is T.J. Watt died as the season went along. And the last, I don't know, 40, 35, 40% of his season, he just didn't seem disruptive anymore. And I know they, you know, maybe under the radar are blaming, the Russell Wilson thing got weird. Team wasn't that good to begin with. The schedule got really unfavorable for them down the stretch, etc. etc. But like, I'm looking at Fandoll and they are over eight and a half wins. Yeah. Which with in the Tom and era for me is just the blind. I don't even have to look at that checking it.
Starting point is 01:17:35 Uh, that's plus one 25 on Fandl cause all the action has been on the under, which is now minus one 45. Um, I don't know how much that's just because Basin Rudolph's the quarterback right now. But could it also be what happened to them in the last month, the last season and the fact that you can point to a couple AFC teams and go, well, that team's going to be, the pats are going to be better. The jets are going to be better. They're in the same thing with the Ravens,
Starting point is 01:18:04 the Bengals, they might fix their defense. We'll see with Hendrickson. Browns might actually have a little more stability at quarterback. AFC South is going to be better except for Houston. You go on through and it's like, maybe this is going to run out this year. I'm just starting my homework and it makes, they make me nervous. They're there. So like, I would, you know,
Starting point is 01:18:25 I would say like they're, their offensive line should be a lot better. Like, and they've actually drafted. Okay. If Troy Fittanu, you know, works out for them at tackle, you know, they've got Broderick Jones, that's two first round picks at tackle. They should be a strong, Zach Frazier might be the best young center in football.
Starting point is 01:18:39 Like they, they have a chance to have the best offensive line they've had in over a decade. And then if DK Metcalf comes through, and I know I'm talking a lot of if over a decade. And then if DK Metcalf comes through, and I know I'm talking a lot of ifs here, right? Like if DK Metcalf comes through, if TJ Watt is himself again, if, I think if it's Patrick. If Aaron Rodgers is still alive. Right, so like there's all of these ifs,
Starting point is 01:18:57 but if you're them, like what's your other choice? You know what I mean? It's either, it was either this, like take this big swing at quarterback and try to get it right and try to squeeze a championship run out of this core that you've had together for the last few years, or blow it up.
Starting point is 01:19:12 And like, that's why I look at this as like, that's, it's the one team where you look at it, I was like, that's a team that, like that's a really worthy swing. Because now at least like, you're taking that swing with TJ Watt and Fitzpatrick and like some really great players they've had there for a long time. I don't mind this swing if I'm the Steelers and look like I think people there would tell you
Starting point is 01:19:35 that the Russell Wilson thing undermined so many things in the last month of the season and that a lot of that building really wanted them to go back to Justin Fields. And it was something where, I mean, Tomlin was kind of, again, all on his own on that one. And I think it's part of the reason why Tomlin likes Shador, like he likes Shador going into the draft. But I don't think Tomlin wanted to,
Starting point is 01:20:04 I don't think he wanted to press that button again at quarterback after what happened with Russell at the end of the year last year. So there's some dynamics there where it's like, I mean, there's some stuff that happened at the end of the year in games where it was just like, man, like if we were just average at that position or we were just running the running things as they were supposed to be run, we might have been okay. And like, so I think their thought is, if we can get like 80 85% of what Aaron Rodgers was three years ago, like we might have a Super Bowl team, which you can argue whether they would or not. But I think when you when if you're them, and you're looking at it with this group of players that you've had for the last few years, and this might be your last shot before you really like go through like a real reset,
Starting point is 01:20:50 then it's worth taking that swing. Well, philosophically, they just feel like they're one of the teams that have decided it doesn't make sense to spend a lot of money at quarterback unless the guy's awesome. Yeah. And we can patch this together, put together the rest of the team around and try to get to 10, 11 wins every year and then hope we can cross our fingers. Here's the issue for them. I mean, if, if I asked you on Fandl right now, who had better odds to make the playoffs, the Patriots or the Steelers, who would you say? Well, because you're asking me, I know it's the Patriots. Yeah. I probably could have framed that better. I should be better at
Starting point is 01:21:24 this after 19 years. Yeah. The Patriots are plus 158 and the Steelers are plus 164. Now a lot of that has to do with this schedule. This schedule the Patriots have is it's comical. Yeah. Like you're like, is this real? Where are they? Oh, there's Buffalo. Okay. There's, but you go through it and it's like, they're favored apparently in 11 games games I think it is. I think it's 13 of the 17 right now or 12, something like that. Anyway. Yeah. Well, we'll see with Pittsburgh. All right.
Starting point is 01:21:50 What's your number two thing? So my number two thing, the Cowboys a year after Jerry Jones famously used the phrase all in actually pulled an all in move and traded for George Pickens. And this one is really interesting to me because they're another team where, like all the things you said about the Steelers, I think sort of apply to the Cowboys, right? Like, is this group that they have right now
Starting point is 01:22:13 going to be good enough? And like, is there something that you can do to try to put that group over the top? And so I think the answer was, like we gotta get Dak Prescott some more help. And so that when they went into the draft, they looked at it like, we either want to come out with a,
Starting point is 01:22:31 come out of this with a lineman or a receiver. And I think if Tedder O and Macmillan who went eighth to the Panthers made it to 12. Yeah. Like maybe that would have been a consideration, but they were sort of looking at it as this mosaic. It's like, well, we still's like, well, I think there were a handful of receivers they were considering in trade,
Starting point is 01:22:50 veteran receivers that they had studied and they had talked to teams about. McMillan's gone, they like Tyler Booker, they just lost Zach Martin, they draft Tyler Booker, and then on the back end, they go and make the deal for George Pickens, which here's the most interesting thing about it to me. I'm cracking my neck as we get ready for this discussion.
Starting point is 01:23:11 So this one, so the reason, one of the main reasons the Steelers got rid of George Pickens is because like the issues with him a lot of times have come out, come down to his role in the offense, the direction of the offense, and how much he's getting the ball, which is normal with a lot of receivers. He's very over the top with it,
Starting point is 01:23:35 which makes him worse than most with it when it comes to that stuff. And so when they traded for DK Metcalf, the thing was it was like, he plays the same position, not that they're just receivers, the thing was it was like he plays the same position, not that, not that they're just receivers, the same receiver spot. The same running a straight line down the sideline position. The ex receiver position, right?
Starting point is 01:23:51 So they're both ex receivers. Okay, so now you got to figure out a way to play them together. And now George Pickens is in a contract year. So do you think if he goes through a two or a three or a four week stretch in the middle of October with say three catches and Is he gonna be okay with that just because we got another receiver? Is he as we discussed earlier the quarterback situation might not be to George's liking Right. So to say the least so is he gonna be okay?
Starting point is 01:24:22 Is he gonna be okay with if he wasn't okay with it before, now in a contract year with $100 million on the line, is he suddenly gonna be okay with, no, that's fine, I'm okay, DK Metcalf's on the team now. Okay, so that's part of the logic for the Steelers and moving off of them and saying, we're gonna be better off with Calvin Austin
Starting point is 01:24:43 and Roman Wilson and whoever else. Well, can I interject one thing here? But when he started the Thursday night, that last play of the game against the Browns, when instead of trying to go for the hill Mary, he just chose to get in a fight with the D back that he'd been waiting to get in a fight with for an hour, that to me is like, it's the beginning of the end, at least with George and Pittsburgh, that was such a weird place. So there's that, but like, and there's the beginning of the end, at least with George and Pittsburgh. That was such a weird play. So there's that, but like,
Starting point is 01:25:07 and there's the lack of effort blocking sometimes, all of that, right? Like, so like that all exists. Okay, so if that whole thing was gonna be a problem in a contract year in Pittsburgh, who's one of the highest volume receivers in football as far as targets go? Well, CD Lamb. Right. So like, is this now going to be okay with him? Again, he's in a new place.
Starting point is 01:25:32 He's with new offensive coaches who are in their first year truly running the offense, because Mike McCarthy's gone now. And he's not getting the ball with all that money in the line. He's suddenly going to be okay with that. Like that- So you don't think they're going to take care of him as part of this deal? Cause that was my assumption. Not right now they're not. I mean, they're going to see how it goes.
Starting point is 01:25:52 And like I said, like everything's going to be in May and June. Like, like it's all, it's really easy for everybody to have their arms around each other and say, this is all going to work out May and June. It's a little different to project these things in September and October. They still have the Micah Parsons thing
Starting point is 01:26:09 floating around out there too. I know one thing that they had discussed with George and his people was, are you comfortable going into the year without a new contract? The answer was yes. If they go into the year, but you can look at that both ways, right? Like is it, are you going to get a super motivated guy who's going to be out to
Starting point is 01:26:30 prove to everybody he's team first? Maybe. I think the people in Pittsburgh would tell you what might be more likely is if he's not getting the ball a month or two into the season, you could have a problem. So that's sort of. Like we also have a, we have a 30 year, maybe even longer, um, sample size with receivers like this who aren't getting paid or aren't getting the contracts they want, then aren't getting the ball enough and kind of how that's going to go.
Starting point is 01:26:54 I just, to me, like from afar, yeah, it's just like a typical Jerry Jones move, but it's a shine. It's another shiny new toy. It's like when, when the bark box comes from my dog every month and it's like, Hey, it's a newspaper. It's another shiny new toy. It's like when, when the bark box comes from my dog every month and it's like, Hey, it's a newspaper. That's a squeaky toy. And my dog will be excited about it for 20 minutes. And then moves on to the next thing.
Starting point is 01:27:12 That's how he's been in free agency almost every year. I thought they, I mean, running back to me was a way more important. They, the running backs murdered them last year. They addressed that to the offensive line is in close to where it used to be. Yeah. Um, and I don't see any scenario where they're one of the top two teams of the NFC East. So you're just going into a season, knowing you're number three and maybe even worse if the giants are a little bit better right away than people think. So I don't, I do not feel good if I'm Dallas.
Starting point is 01:27:40 Yeah. And, and that division, by the way, you've seen the schedule for that division. They're playing the NFC North and the AFC West so brutal. It's the worst one of all the schedules Yeah, yeah So so I mean it's gonna be really interesting and I think a lot of it for them is counting on Brian Schottenheimer as a culture builder that he'll be able to build the right environment but I I always go back but I always go back to like I I don't,
Starting point is 01:28:06 like the idea of like the, the, the receiver, that the Steelers, that Mike Tomlin is ready to get rid of, like the history of that's not great, you know, like when, when Mike Tomlin, I mean, back in 2015, 2016, like, did anybody think of like Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell as bad guys It wasn't until they were gone really, you know, or it's disruptive in some way disruptive at the end like Bell got disruptive at the end, but it's check Generally when when when the Steelers are ready to walk away from a guy for those sorts of reasons or a guy who has that sort of? background
Starting point is 01:28:43 Generally, it doesn't work out for the next team that gets them. Dallas is, you could get, and they're over under is eight and a half, playoffs not looking great. I'm down on them. What's your third thing? Derek Carr retired, which I feel like this, maybe because it happened on a Saturday,
Starting point is 01:29:00 kind of like flew under the radar, you know what I mean? But it's one of a number of quarterback situations. I kind of grouped this together. This is cheating a little bit by me, but the saints, the Vikings, the Browns, like I, there are, it feels like a few teams where the quarterback situations are going to be really interesting. Um, and or Macabre. What's the, or, or, or grizzly.
Starting point is 01:29:24 I don't know what the right adjective is, but there's going to be some tough ones. I mean, I throw the Viking. I am hesitant to throw the Vikings in there. Don't be hesitant. We don't know if JJ McCarthy can go for a tour at ACL is going to be good. And who knows? And the reason, the reason I throw them in there with the other two is because the expectations are so high there.
Starting point is 01:29:41 Like if you're a player on that team, that's a 14-win team last year, like that's not the type of team that like can throw the year overboard in the name of quarterback development. So, you know, what does that look like? And, you know, I know like JJ fought through a lot last year, he lost a lot of weight, like, and he had a lot of ups and downs,
Starting point is 01:30:00 like coming back from that injury. And, you know, obviously at the second follow-up surgery is more of a cleanup. He's in a much better place right now. And I don't think there's a better place in the league for a young quarterback to be, especially because of what they did with their offensive line and signing Ryan and Kelly
Starting point is 01:30:14 and Will Fries and drafting Donovan Jackson and getting Christian Derrisaw back, obviously it'll help a lot. But the Vikings are the one where I look at it and it's like so much much is going to hinge. I mean, that could be a Superbowl team if JJ McCarthy has a great year, or the quarterback position could really hold them back. Well, plus especially you had cousins for a few years there who, regardless of how you
Starting point is 01:30:38 feel about him, was still a significantly above average quarterback. Yeah, and Darlow played really well. Then you get Darlow for four months last year, who was excellent. And now you have a new guy who God only knows coming off ACL. Yeah. So I got to look at those three teams. Like I, the saints to me, I mean, like Tyler Shuck, Spencer Rattler, I mean, Jake Handers hurt now.
Starting point is 01:30:58 Well, can you explain the salary cap piece of it? Cause wasn't it in a weird way, a great thing that Derek Carr retired? Cause I think the saints were going to suck either way. So does that help them? It was one of the more bizarre endings to a career I've seen in 20 years covering this. I mean, it started with, if you go back to the end of the season, I think like Kellan Moore Kellan Moore committed but didn't really commit to Carr as the starter in the introductory press conference. Then there were some whispers that Carr wanted to trade and some teams sniffed around that. They sniffed around and it smelled like sewage.
Starting point is 01:31:40 They're like, oh. Then there was, well, Carr wants a raise because to affirm, like, this is my team, then. Oh yeah, we gotta confirm that. He was just so good the last two years. Let's give him the car keys. Then after that, they convert his contract,
Starting point is 01:31:59 which basically means he's on the team without really consulting with them, which they can do. It's a contract mechanism, but it basically locked them in where it converted. It took like basically, you know, 95% of his, 98% of his salary and turned it into a signing bonus. So they F themselves for this season with how they did that,
Starting point is 01:32:18 because they didn't think the season was gonna go on. Yeah, they had that, and that restructures, that restructure pushes the cap money forward, but it basically locks them in with the team. Now, where they are saved by this is that they they don't have to spend that money now. Now they they sunk a 10 million dollar roster bonus into him. And part of the separation agreement is he gets to keep the 10 million dollar roster bonus. But it's a buyout. Yeah, for the most part. And now they move on. And we'll see. I mean, Tyler Schuck was in college for seven years.
Starting point is 01:32:50 He was at four different schools. I've actually, I've heard he has, I think it's four degrees, which is pretty wild. But like he was he was Justin Herbert's backup for two years at Oregon, which gives you an idea how old he is. And then you have him competing with Spencer Rattler and you see where that goes. And that looks like, is this a full reset year for them
Starting point is 01:33:15 where they're in the mix for one of the quarterbacks next year? Obviously there's a quarterback who could be in the draft. I don't think he will be in the draft, but a quarterback who could be in the draft next year with a very famous last name that has ties to that organization. Why don't you say that's the number one I could see them tanking once we get to November NFL team that we have. I can't even think of another one that would be a bigger suspect.
Starting point is 01:33:38 Yeah. I mean, like they, I'd have to think about that one. I mean, I don't know how many teams there are that are like just outright in that position and need a quarterback might wind up being in that position where they're not very good. And you never know like the way these things are going to, going to play out. And Kellen Moore is a first year coach, obviously can't afford for them. It's, it's hard for him to be number one.
Starting point is 01:34:01 Cause like, even if you look at a team like Tennessee, they just got their quarterback, right? So it's not like they'd be like, Oh, I hope we suck. Carolina has a quarterback. Chicago has a quarterback. Cleveland would be the only other one, right? Vegas should be competitive. I think more competitive with Gino as a quarterback.
Starting point is 01:34:18 So yeah, I mean, Cleveland would be the other one if that thing crashes and burns, they just took two. Um, yeah. And the only other one I can think of is the Colts. Yeah. Yeah. It's probably an AFC South team that will be have the number one pick next year. It'd be my guess.
Starting point is 01:34:33 The Colts have the Colts cook. The Colts, the Colts are interesting because that could be, I mean, obviously with, with new people, with a new owner, a new principal owner in charge. And then like the GM has been there now for, Chris Ballard has been there for, this will be his ninth year there, and they really haven't accomplished a ton. If he's in trouble, then maybe the coach is in trouble.
Starting point is 01:34:55 It could, if things get off to a bad start, it could get messy in a hurry. He's good at telling everybody how well he's doing though, Chris Ballard. It's going great. I like it. He seems like a lot of people love him. And every year it's like a victory lap about how good their draft or for agency was.
Starting point is 01:35:12 And then, you know. Yeah, it's hard cause like, I mean, like they, it really, while Luck was still a quarterback, it looked like it was really going in a great direction. And then, you know, you have the surprise retirement. Um, two years ago, and that was, that's the thing is like, it had been a crutch for a while and it can't be a crutch anymore. It's been way too long.
Starting point is 01:35:34 No, you look at that division. Cause I think Houston's, I really liked Houston last year. So Houston might mean that not enough. I've been making me really nervous, right? Not enough people are talking about how I think Houston could bounce back in a really big way. Oh, make the case. So like, I think Houston's got a top five defense.
Starting point is 01:35:55 And I think with the level of like, the young core players like Will Anderson and Derek Stangley, and they bring Denil Hunter back, and they've got a lot of nice ancillary pieces on defense too. Really good coach. They've got the defense where they want it. Part of the reason they traded Laramie Tunsell was because they felt like the culture in their offensive line room was broken,
Starting point is 01:36:22 and that they weren't able to match the culture they built on defense on offense. Interesting. So they trade Laramie Tunsil, they bring in a million different tackles to try and fix it. They draft the kid from Minnesota, they bring in Trent Brown and Cam Robinson, they just throw a bunch of darts to tackle. They bring in a new offensive coordinator from the Rams,
Starting point is 01:36:39 and Nick Kaley. They take two wide receivers from the same college? Right. Who I think have a chance to be really like, if you look at the history from that school, like a lot of guys from that school come in and produce right away. So it wouldn't shock me like as like complimentary pieces to, to Nico Collins,
Starting point is 01:36:56 if those guys are playing pretty well right away and you have CJ Stroud, I, I look at it and I'm like, a lot of people have totally forgotten about them. I think they have an elite defense. And if your problem is offense and you've got CJ Stroud to build around and you're bringing in a coordinator from the Rams, who I think is really capable
Starting point is 01:37:15 and has both like the Josh McDaniels and Sean McVay background, and you play in a weak division, and like as much as people thought they were not the same last year, they were down by one point going into the fourth quarter of the divisional rounded arrow. I was just going to, I was going to say that that's well, that chiefs game is the best case for that. They're actually going to be good this year and they're a little, little closer than people think. The other case would be the division. Right. Right. So like, like it's, I think we look at it like it was broken because our expectations were so high after CJ's rookie year, D'Amico's first year. And I'm, I, I just don't know that teams are looking at that. Like, I don't know if people are looking at that team enough and saying, you know
Starting point is 01:37:58 what, like there's still a lot of like really good stuff in place here. And if the young quarterback bounces back where CJ was doing incredibly high level shit in 2003, like that could be a dangerous team. Now, do they break into the Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, do they break into that tier? You know, Cincinnati could get back into that tier. Like maybe, maybe not, but I think they're like, if you look at like the teams in the AFC,
Starting point is 01:38:26 they may have the best chance to do it of the teams that are right below that. So the division odds, do you know what their odds are for that division? Houston's gotta be an overwhelming favorite, right? So that's what I thought too. Went to Fandel, they're plus 115 when they have C-South. I don't know who else you would bet in the AFC South
Starting point is 01:38:44 unless you wanted to really talk yourself into Jacksonville. I was going to say, is there like a lot of belief in James Gladstone and Liam Cohen now? I don't know. Or is there belief that that trade might, we actually might be like, wow, Travis Hunter's like pretty good, but holy shit, they gave up a lot for that guy. He's not jumping out of my TV.
Starting point is 01:39:04 I can't wait to watch him, but I just, I think Jacksonville's problem, like under the last regime, you know, the, and this is where I think, like there's some cleaning up that needs to be done is like, they paid a lot of good players, great money. Like there are guys, there are there are guys in that roster that they paid, like their franchise players when they're just pretty good. Um you put Trevor Lawrence on that list? Because that would. I mean you could. I think they pay Walker a little to play left tackle after he played for like 15 minutes for them. Tyson Campbell at corner. I mean Christian Kirk is gone, but I think he'd be another example of that.
Starting point is 01:39:41 There was just a lot of examples of like, I mean, you could even, you could even like argue that, that, that Walker is one of those guys, you know what I mean? Like, so like, are they just, do they just have like a collection of pretty good players and they don't have like the types of, they don't have like Houston has Will Andrew, like I said, Will Anderson, Derek Stingley, Nico Collins, CJ Stroud. I mean, they have an identity of this. Right.
Starting point is 01:40:06 Like how many players on Houston's roster? Like if you rank the two rosters, Houston Jacksonville, how many Texans would you have to go through to get to the first Jaguar? Oof. You know, all right. Why sidetracked it? You have two more on your list. Yep.
Starting point is 01:40:19 So number four, Caleb Williams is in the news again. And this is an excerpt from, I think, our mutual friend Seth Wecker-Sham's book. It was, for those who missed it, before the 2024 draft, he and his dad had looked at the idea of forcing their way out, I guess what you would call it is pulling a needle high, and had their eyes on the Vikings.
Starting point is 01:40:45 And the Vikings had actually researched Caleb too. That was of course the draft they took J.J. McCarthy in. So like this has become like a little bit of like a firestorm in Chicago. And I think it's sort of, I think the first signal of like what's to come for Caleb there. And I think he is signal of like what's to come for Caleb there. And I think he is such a high end talent. Like when you, wait, when you say what's to come, you mean venom and disappointment?
Starting point is 01:41:13 And just, no, like just, just the level of like the training wheels are off. Now the excuses are gone from a scrutiny standpoint. Yeah. Like, like now it's like, you have to start playing well. You know, we've seen the year two jump. I mean, this might get you excited about Drake too, but we've seen the year two jump where I'm more excited. I mean, I mean, but you look at it like Patrick Mahomes, MVP of the league, um, his second year,
Starting point is 01:41:36 Lamar Jackson, MVP of the league, his second year, Joe Burrows, and the, and the super bowl in his second year, Josh Allen, 10 wins and in the playoffs in his second year, Drake may is going to be in the second year. And so, and so like you look at all of this, right? Like, and so like, is, is Caleb going to take that step? And I think, I think this is like a, like this, this is a scrutiny that Caleb's going to be under because they fix so many things.
Starting point is 01:41:58 They drafted Colston Loveland 10th overall Luther burden with their second pick. They traded for Joe Tooney and Jonah Jackson to play guard. They signed Drew Dahlman from Atlanta to play center. They hire Ben Johnson, which is a huge part of it. They removed every excuse he had. Coaching, offensive line, weapons, whatever. He has everything now. He has, and you look at it and it's like, this is a, this now looks like they should be able to get a very clean read on what Caleb can be. And it was interesting because I did a little reporting on this last week where I kind of
Starting point is 01:42:32 asked around what they've been working on with Caleb and the stuff that they've been working on was really how you carry yourself as a franchise quarterback and how you have to, the command that you have to have to be a franchise quarterback and how you have to, like the command that you have to have to be a franchise quarterback and a couple of the examples that were brought up to me, they watched tape of him taking sacks and how long it took for him to come off the ground. Basically, the point they were trying to make to him was,
Starting point is 01:42:56 last year was a tough year, we understand your offensive coordinator gets fired, then your head coach gets fired, your offensive line wasn't very good, we get it. It's like, but if you're lying on the ground, you know for an extended period of time You're not picking yourself up off the ground. That's gonna resonate with the rest of the team That's a sort of thing that's gonna let and so it's like you need to be you need to be popping up off the ground after Hits another show them Drake show him Drake may tapes of him popping off the ground during his 120 sacks
Starting point is 01:43:24 Probably be a good probably Probably be a good example. Yeah. Another thing they said, but they showed tape like early in a game of him and the motions coming from the right and he's looking through the left. And so like there's little things as far as like command, like we want you to be the commander of the offense.
Starting point is 01:43:40 And so, like so much of what they're doing right now is we're trying to make you the guy and we're going to give you every tool to make you the guy. And we're going to tell you how you have to carry yourself as the guy. And so, um, you know, I think you know what though, this is going to take a big jump. This is why we spend so much time talking about this position because what works and doesn't work is so complicated and has so many different factors in it.
Starting point is 01:44:05 And all the stuff you're talking about is what I believe in the quarterback position. It's not just about your arm strength. Can you move around? Like you really, you were a leader of men. You're, you have to be the most charismatic guy in the team. You have to make those guys believe in you for, you know, 12 months a year. And the guys that fail are always the guys that fail that test. I remember Brady saying, I remember talking to Brady about this way back
Starting point is 01:44:30 when I was covered in the Patriots. By the way, who Brady put the most thought into this out of anybody. But go ahead. Yeah. And he said to me, the only way I can show my toughness is availability. The, that's the only way I can, at that position, the only way I can in this tough, in this, this game where everyone's tough. So the only way I can prove my that position, the only way I can in this tough, in this game where everyone's tough. So the only way I can prove my toughness
Starting point is 01:44:47 to the guys who are really out there in the trenches is to be available and to be the first one into the huddle and to be the first one up and to be available to them. And I think that was sort of the point with like, you have to be the first one to pick yourself up off the ground too. Cause no matter how hard you got hit, someone's probably hurting worse than you are
Starting point is 01:45:03 out there on that field. And like, even like the thing about the motion, right? Like, is it going to be like that guy who's coming, you got hit, someone's probably hurting worse than you are out there on that field. And like even like the thing about the motion, right? Like, is it going to be like that guy who's coming, that receiver who's coming in motion, right? From your right and you're looking left, is that guy going to follow you after that happens? You know what I mean? Like, or he's, is he going to see that and say, what, what is this kid doing?
Starting point is 01:45:20 You know, so it's little stuff like that, that I think they're trying to do to empower Caleb and, um, and yeah. doing. It's little stuff like that that I think they're trying to do to empower Caleb. That's really interesting. I think that stuff is really, they're trying to empower him to be the leader there. I even think the way he handled the backlash, the Seth thing, I think it was yesterday, he stood up there and he stood in front of the media and said, like, look, like he took the bullet for it. He said, look, like when I was coming out,
Starting point is 01:45:52 me and my dad were looking at everything. My dad, you know, as any parent would, would like just, we were just investigating all of our avenues. Once we came and visited the Bears and we got to know the organization, we felt differently about it. But of course we looked at the history.
Starting point is 01:46:06 To me, he could have hid from that. You know what I mean? He could have just said, I'm not talking about it, it's in the past. But the only way to kill that story is to stand up there and answer the question. So I thought that was a pretty good sign for maybe him maturing a little bit and growing into the leadership role. I mean, that of the most,
Starting point is 01:46:25 I mean, that market for football, like that's one of the more pressure packed markets in the league. Yeah, certainly among the hungriest. Yeah, if the story's true, admit it's true, and then nobody's gonna talk about it anymore. It's funny though that a lot of the stuff heading toward that draft,
Starting point is 01:46:40 when people were trying to say what they were concerned about with them, and nobody could fully articulate it, and then the way this story blew up over the last month, it's like, it's kind of what they were concerned about with them and nobody could fully articulate it. And then the way this story blew up over the last month, it's like, it's kind of what we're talking about. We know you have the talent. There's more to that position than just talent. Are you going to figure out that part?
Starting point is 01:46:55 And that's it. I mean, even Anthony Edwards was taking shit during this OKC series about people didn't like how he handled the game five loss. They didn't like that. He disappeared a little bit in game four. And it's like, there's just a different spotlight of how you're getting picked apart when you become the guy. And that's part of how it goes.
Starting point is 01:47:14 It's funny. You mentioned the, the getting yourself up fast. And cause there's a social media video of all the hits Brady took, especially early in his career, um, which were, there's one, I think it's the Colts he's running, he's scrambling on the right side line and just doesn't see somebody and he just gets like annihilated. Like it's a video game and he gets right up like that. But he was always passionate about that, which was what was so scary about the ACL
Starting point is 01:47:39 injury member, cause he didn't get up that time. It was like, Oh, this is bad. He's not getting up. Sometimes you pick up things on these things, covering them in really stupid ways. And this is one example for me. So, you know, when I was, when, when I was covering the Patriots, when I was in the beat,
Starting point is 01:47:55 you know, my roommate is one of my best friends from college and he was coaching. He was a limited earnings coach at Northeastern before they dropped football. And we were living in the North end. And so like he and I would, would talk about all these things. And I remember him like, it was awesome. Like, you know, when I watch football with him, like he would actually come and watch with me when I would like watch the Patriots games over again. And he said, you know what the difference with Brady is?
Starting point is 01:48:20 And I'm like, no, what would you say it is? It's like, it's that he lets the plays develop. It's like, if you watch other quarterbacks, they get rid of the ball, he is so willing to take the hit. This was before the ACL. But he is legitimately watching him. He was saying to me, he's like, he is legitimately giving the receivers an extra second to get open.
Starting point is 01:48:38 He's giving everything an extra second to develop because he's willing to take a hit that the other quarterback won't. you know, and I thought that was such an interesting piece of insight and I think it matches up with what you're trying to say on Brady. And I think the guys, the guys recognize that too. You know what I mean? Like the receivers recognize that too. The guys who, cause that's going to help them out. That was the amazing thing about Drake May last year.
Starting point is 01:49:01 Yeah. He was always willing to hold the ball for an extra second to the point where we're like, dude, we're going to go three and 14, like maybe just get rid of the ball, but he didn't want to. And I think that speaks to what you were talking about. The concussion at the end of the year where he was getting a bounce. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:49:17 But also like Rogers last year, I didn't feel like he wanted to keep the ball. I thought he wanted to get rid of it. I don't think he wanted to take hits last year. What's your fifth thing? keep the ball. I thought he wanted to get rid of it. I don't think he wanted to take hits last year. What's your fifth thing? So I was, I had like tush push here, but I'm so freaking sick of talking about that. I'm done with it. Well, I will say I did love the Eagles owner getting all aggro about it.
Starting point is 01:49:37 I like when those guys get aggro in those meetings and he really seemed like he was like challenging the manhood of all the other owners, which was like hilarious how he approached it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think, you know, calling the other owners a teenager was, was, was an interesting, interesting strategy to take. I think, I actually think the bigger thing to come out of that meeting is the discussion on the play mat, playoff format changing and the- Let's fucking go. I was hoping you'd bring this up. So like, I don't think enough people are talking about this.
Starting point is 01:50:07 When they first brought it up in the meeting in March, they had probably five or six votes. So for people who don't know, you need 24. Well, you gotta explain what the big tweak they wanted to do was. So they wanted, they wanted, they wanted, so you still get in the playoffs automatically if you win your division, but they want open, but the lions proposed open seating.
Starting point is 01:50:29 More or less, it would mean everything. Like, you know, you're seated purely by record. But the genesis of this explain the Vikings week 18 thing, because that's, that's where this really starts. So I like, so yeah, it's the Vikings, the Vikings in week 18, we're in a war with the lions. They, I like, so yes, the Vikings, the Vikings in week 18 were in a war with the Lions. They lose, they have 14 wins and now they got to go on the road. It's the most violent game of the year, basically. Right. And they got to go on the road and we, and
Starting point is 01:50:54 the wild card round and play a Rams team that rested everybody in week 18. And lost what, four, four more games than the Vikings. Yeah. And like, I think they had 10, I think they had 10 wins. They were 10 and seven, yes. They were four games worse. But I think the nuance to this is that people think this is about fairness for the league and it's not. It's about games in week 17 and week 18 being compelling. The Rams are actually the example of why, the Rams are what scare. What the Rams are actually the example of why, the Rams are what scare,
Starting point is 01:51:26 what the Rams did scare is the league. Because the Rams didn't have nothing to play for in week 18. If you remember, they could have played to avoid the Vikings. So they could have been the third seed or the fourth seed. Sean McVeigh makes the conscious decision, it's more important that my guys get the rest
Starting point is 01:51:43 than play for the third seed. So I'm gonna set everybody down. They lose to the Seahawks. I was on this podcast saying, I couldn't believe they're playing this this way. How would you want to have like, this is nuts. You're going to end up playing the Vikings or the Lions. That's crazy. Why would you want to do that? So that scares the league because it paid off and because now you have a team and the NFL, they're very cognizant of what's happened in the NBA,
Starting point is 01:52:06 and they look at each of the 272 games as pieces of real estate that they can sell. Are we making those pieces of real estate as valuable as we possibly can? If you have the format they have now, I think is fair in a lot of ways because of the scheduling formula and the way that works, but you have these games at the end of the season now,
Starting point is 01:52:27 where it's like, screw it, we'd rather get the rest. And it's good. But how does the 18 game season tie into this? And that's what I was gonna say is like, this is like, so they're projecting it forward and they're saying, this is gonna get worse. Right. Like it just worked for the Rams
Starting point is 01:52:42 and this now is going to get worse if we don't do something about it. And so if they have open seating, there will be more to play for at the end of the year. The problem is the scheduling formula. In the NFL, you only play 14 teams over the course of year. Of course, you play three teams in your division twice, and you only play 11 teams in your conference.
Starting point is 01:53:07 So the schedules are so wildly different. I use the example of the NFC East. So the NFC East plays the NFC North and the NFC West this year. The NFC West plays the two South divisions. You could argue an 11-win season by the Eagles is more impressive this year than a 13 win season by the Niners, right? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:53:32 The Niners have played eight games against those two South divisions. It's the reason the Niners over under is like three wins higher than it seems like it should have been because their schedule is ridiculous. It's a joke. Yeah. than it seems like it should have been because their schedule is ridiculous. It's a joke, yeah. And so like you had the Ram COO, Kevin Demoff stood up in this meeting, you know, last week and basically said to the room, guys, we need to decide what we're trying to do here.
Starting point is 01:53:55 Are we trying to be fair? Or are we trying to make the games at the end of the season more compelling? And that led to like more big picture talk where I think the scheduling formula is going to come under some scrutiny, are we doing this right? I think the scheduling formula I think is mostly fine. But that's the big picture things
Starting point is 01:54:18 that they're going to be looking at. Was it possible that it would be fair to have just have open conference and no divisions? I mean, was it possible that it would be fair to have every, like, just have open conference and no divisions, right? I don't, I don't, I do not like that. And like, just, but, but, but if you, here would be the idea you play, what you play every team in your conference. So you have 15 games in conference.
Starting point is 01:54:38 And then if you're going to an 18 game schedule, you play three games out of conference every year. I, like, I don't, I'm not wild about it. Basically you do two divisions instead of three. You play everybody in your division twice. That's 14 games. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. You deconstruct the divisions altogether.
Starting point is 01:54:56 So you have a 16 team division. You'd play 15. Yeah. That's, I don't know about that. I mean, it's, it's one solution, but I, like, I, but I, the point is like, I don't think they're going know about that. I mean, it's one solution, but the point is, I don't think they're going to do that. But the point is, I think this is the big picture of thinking that's coming out of it.
Starting point is 01:55:13 I saw on the way out of the meetings, a team president say to somebody else, hey, I want to be part of the scheduling discussion. It's going to be a big picture topic for them over the next couple of years. And I think it's going to have way more of an impact than what everybody was focusing on last year with the last week with the Eagles, because it could, you know, they could lead to some structural change in the way
Starting point is 01:55:33 that all this stuff works. So I, well, think about this last year, Tampa was 10 and seven. They're the three seed, the Rams were 10 and seven. They're the four seed. The Vikings are 14 and three, five seed and Washington's 12 and five, six seed. So, you know, if it's within two wins, I get it because that can be really comes down to, Oh, my division was way harder than yours.
Starting point is 01:55:56 We had to play the other, other conference division. I think when it gets to like more than four wins, like did they talk about the possibility of you have to be three wins better than the team you're playing in round one to have the home game? Yeah. That was one was like, do we have a marker where it's like, if there's a three game gap or a two game gap, then like then, then that's a stipulation in there. Do you like that?
Starting point is 01:56:20 I just feels like too arbitrary for me. I don't know. I mean, there, there was another one where it was like you have to be plus 500 if you win your division you have to I've been saying that for 20 years Yeah, you have to be plus 500 did to get the automatic seat otherwise you're in the pool with a wild you have to be nine and eight or Or better seven and two or whatever it is. You have to have some sort of over 500 record, right? So they had they discussed that which I that makes some sense to me too.
Starting point is 01:56:46 I just, I think, you know, when you're in a league that only plays 17 or 18 games and you're not playing everybody, it's just the records aren't the same. The records don't mean the same thing. And so I don't know that there's a really simple way to, to take care of it. Yeah. If you go through the previous seasons, yeah, that like, so in 2022 Tampa was eight and nine posting the 12 and five Cowboys in round one. That's where it gets stupid.
Starting point is 01:57:18 And they beat them, right? And by the way, they won. Right? Yeah. Well, the Seahawks, you remember the Seahawks in the, the, the Beastquake game, the Marshawn game. That's the famous one. Right.
Starting point is 01:57:30 Right. So they beat the Saints. And I think if I remember right, the Saints were like 11 and five that year. It was like Breeze and the prime of his career and they had to go all the way to Seattle. Yeah. They were like, yeah. So if it's 17 game, it's 17 game season and it's three wins higher than the other team. I kind of like that.
Starting point is 01:57:47 Cause then if you're trying to make stakes for week 18, I think that's one way to potentially do it. I don't know if it solves every problem, but I thought the fact that the Rams that you made the key point earlier, the Vikings are in this absolute war. Right. And then they have to go play the Rams the next week who have just, you know, been on vacation for a week. And coming off the wildfire thing and they're playing and the game was weird in Arizona. Like the Vikings were dealing with all of these strange circumstances. Yeah, right. Right.
Starting point is 01:58:15 And it was like, and, and, and, and it, but I, again, like, I think that's what's scared. What scares the league is like, if that really worked, that means more teams are going to consider it next year. Like you don't see it in 18 games. You could do it for the last two games of the season. But even that, like even this coming year, don't you think some teams are going to look at what the Rams did and say, like, we need to consider that.
Starting point is 01:58:34 If we're locked into a playoff spot and we're just playing for, you know, a single, a single spot in the seating. Yeah. Like maybe we are better off sitting all of our guys. And if you watch that game, you go back and watch that game, the Rams looked like they were shot out of a cannon. Like it went, and the Vikings looked like they were dead legged.
Starting point is 01:58:52 So I think, you know, like that's, that's what scares the league about it. And I think it's, it's something that's gonna be part of like the big picture discussion going forward. Can you explain to everybody in 40 seconds why we're going to 18 games? Cause you know the answer. Yeah, it's cause of money.
Starting point is 01:59:07 I don't need 40 seconds to explain that. But why would the players agree to it? Because it's eventually going to be shoved down their throat. And like, I think for the players, it's as much about like, how do we, how do we get as much as we can for it? And I would say like my argument, if I were a player, if I were the union,
Starting point is 01:59:26 what I would want is you need to get me to free agency quicker. Instead of it being four years on rookie contracts, you need to have it be three years. Because if you think about it, the difference between 16 and 18 games, that's eight more games that you've got to make it through to get to free agency over four years, right? Plus playoffs.
Starting point is 01:59:47 And you're talking about the most violent game, right? So that's a real thing that, you know, if I'm looking at it, I'm a player, I'm like, you got to get me to free agency quicker. The problem is, in the NFL, is that the union is controlled by the older players who, is that going to be a priority for them to get a 22, 23 year old, a free agency faster? Generally, historically it hasn't been the priority for them.
Starting point is 02:00:10 But I think that that's what you would, if I'm the union, like, I think that would be one of the first things I would ask for is you have to get more of my players to free agency faster and maybe even like you, you look at franchise tags and those sorts of things, is there a way we can loosen the reins on those as well? So the older players wouldn't want that to happen because they're competing with those people in free agency. And then you have a league that 80% of the people, their careers are what? Three years or less, four years or less.
Starting point is 02:00:37 It's the dichotomy of the league. So they can't, they can't go on strike because you just lose the season and I've lost my earning power for one of the four years, basically. Right, right, right. That's exactly it. Like that's like the dichotomy of it is like the rank and file and the NFL is making less than a million dollars a year and like is probably going to be out of the league within a couple of years. So they've got to take every dime they can get while they can get it. And yet the guys who are controlling the negotiation are the 1% of the 1%. And yet the guys who are controlling the negotiation are the 1% of the 1%. All right.
Starting point is 02:01:05 We're wrapping up. So apologies to Jim or say in a Trey Hendrickson's contract, but you do have to give me 25 seconds on Drake May, who's really the only thing I have going for me now. And those are the Red Sox, Club, Roman Anthony. I would say the best thing I could say is like the new staff's gotten in there. There was a lot of things broken last year. Josh's offense is pretty complex. He has worked on simplifying some things.
Starting point is 02:01:30 He studied the college game a bunch last year to try to make it a little more user-friendly. But the best thing I can tell you, the most encouraging thing I can tell you is that they have not needed to game the offense up to make it work for Drake May. He has looked like a professional quarterback in the meeting room and on the practice field at this point. And they got him a left tackle who's already sworn to protect him with his life. Game of Thrones style. Like that lady, what was her, Brianna, Brianna or whatever it was.
Starting point is 02:02:01 I can't remember who it was. There was somebody who tried to top it later in the draft too, who said that they were going to lay their life down for the franchise. I, there was, I don't know if that's going to become a trend now. Like who can go more Braveheart on like. I've consumed all the Will Campbell content and I'm here for him. I love how all he wants to do is protect Drake Bay. That's his job in life. If you Google it, there's some really good
Starting point is 02:02:25 like LSU weight room content that you'd really like. Like I haven't watched it. Come on. Okay, all right. Yeah, all right. I don't care that his arms are an inch short. I'm all in on Will Campbell. All right, so you can read it.
Starting point is 02:02:35 Read Albert on SI listeners podcast as well. Great to see you. Thanks for coming on. All right, thanks Bill. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to House and Mahoney and Albert and Gahal and Eduardo. You can watch this as a video podcast on Spotify. You can watch it on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel as well.
Starting point is 02:02:52 Don't forget new rewatchable is coming on Monday. We're doing Out for Justice, the Steven Seagal anti-classic. This is an unbelievable movie. I can't wait for you to watch it this weekend. We will be me and Kyle Brandt coming Monday night for you on that. And then we're selling on Sunday. Have a great weekend. I will see you on Sunday.
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