The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Longest NFL Day Ever, Cowboys Fever, Incompetence Galore, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: October 7, 2024

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal after what seemed like an endless day of football to discuss the Cowboys' last-minute win over the Steelers, another dismal Patriots performance (1:28...), the Ravens winning a shootout vs. the Bengals, Jets-Vikings, Bears-Panthers, another encouraging showing from Jayden Daniels, and Giants-Seahawks (20:16). Then they host an NFL Week 5 Incompetency Draft (38:05). Finally, they guess the lines for NFL Week 6 (1:03:30) and close the show with Parent Corner (1:23:21). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Coming up, not even a lightning storm could stop me and Cousin Sal from staying up late doing a podcast that's coming up next. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gang's here, you're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this. It's game day.
Starting point is 00:00:25 All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious.
Starting point is 00:00:40 You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time.
Starting point is 00:00:57 Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lights today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't.
Starting point is 00:01:18 And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey, and it's on prime all season long. Watch prime Monday night hockey deliver unreal plays. The biggest goals can't miss moments. Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL's best. They're all on prime prime Monday night hockey. It's on Monday. It's on prime. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network.
Starting point is 00:01:47 I have a new Rewatchables coming for you on Monday night. We did Poltergeist. It is part of Scary Month on the Rewatchables, and you can watch that one as well on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel. We're also doing a live episode of Silence of the Lambs tonight, actually, because it's officially Monday on Broadway in New York City. So we'll run that next week in the rewatchables. You can find all that on the YouTube channel. You can find all the clips from this podcast on my YouTube channel, the Bill Simmons channel, videos, clips, me stammering,
Starting point is 00:02:22 me looking super tired because Cousin Sal and I stayed up very late tonight and I'm on East Coast time. We're going to talk about it in a second. Guess the Lines, week five review, lots of stuff next. First, our friends. I wish we had a Les Pepe song. I wish we had a tired Pearl Jam song. We should have gone maybe like black or something,
Starting point is 00:02:42 but let's bring it in. Pro-Gam. All right. The longest day in NFL history is over. Sal, as you pour it, I'm exhausted. I'm on the East Coast. Sal, we had 13 and a half hours. No. No, 16 almost.
Starting point is 00:03:20 16 and a half hours. 15 and a half hours? What's 930 to 1 o'clock? Yeah, we're in the 16th hour. I can't do math. I feel like I'm an air traffic control who worked a double shift staring at screens all day and now I have to do it again on Zoom for an hour. But yeah, it ended great. I know, congratulations.
Starting point is 00:03:35 Jets Vikings feel like it happened about 100 hours ago. I'm a little groggy, but you are out of your mind excited. The Cowboys have stolen one. They win in Pittsburgh, a 15-play drive that included a fumble that went backwards and landed on the 40-yard line. Then they get stuffed. You have fourth down. You run a pick play.
Starting point is 00:03:58 And Tolbert, who seems like he's about to have a heart attack 30 seconds earlier, somehow makes this great catch in traffic. You win the game. And more importantly, Dak, not a lot of those for Dak over the years. No, um,
Starting point is 00:04:11 zero. No, I don't think that, I mean, I was planning on being miserable. I thought this was going to cap off a Mets Cowboys back to back six and a half hour. First of all,
Starting point is 00:04:20 you were funny yesterday because you texted us and you're like, I'm on the East coast. I'm going to be able to watch the London game at a normal time. That's your text voice. And then you forgot about, you didn't count for a lightning storm that would keep you up to 1.30 in the morning. But that was so good, man. I mean, we deserved it.
Starting point is 00:04:38 We had like 445 yards to their 220. We outplayed them almost every facet of the game. Yeah, it's true. Very exciting. Fields threw for 134. The Steelers didn't even rush for 100 yards. Pickens was three for 26.
Starting point is 00:04:55 How many? Did you double their yardage? 25 first downs. Yeah, you almost doubled their yardage. 4-4-5, 2-2-2. And you know what? More than that,
Starting point is 00:05:04 you're never going to hear this probably again, McCarthy outcoached Tomlin. He really. He did. 4-4-5 2-2-2. And you know what? More than that, you're never going to hear this probably again. McCarthy outcoached Tomlin. He really kind of did. I mean, not just that last drive. That last drive, why they used that timeout, I have no idea. That was a cat and mouse game why Tomlin called that timeout. But just the play
Starting point is 00:05:20 calling. I was proud of McCarthy. Dak had his couple of picks, but just the way he got up and down the field was just a chef's kiss. I can proud of McCarthy. Dak had his couple of picks, but just the way he got up and down the field was just a chef's kiss. I can't say enough. You're bringing the ball. I went into the game. I picked Pittsburgh.
Starting point is 00:05:35 Once there's an hour and a half lightning delay, I don't feel bad about any pick. I'm in Boston. I could have hedged against the Steelers, but I did not expect out of all the things to happen for you guys to run the ball. Enrico Daudo, the 20 for 87. The Steelers don't look like the same team to me
Starting point is 00:05:54 from the start of the season. They've had a couple injuries, but they didn't have the same oomph. You know, we knew their offense wasn't going to be that great, but defensively, I just felt like they got lucky with a couple bad Dak throws. But other than that, I didn't feel like there was a ton of pressure. TJ Watt, we heard from a couple times. But for the most part, it kind of felt like you guys were doing whatever you wanted.
Starting point is 00:06:15 And Dak seemed really comfortable the whole game. I didn't think it was a good sign for Pittsburgh at all. Well, I think they get out yardage most games, but they keep you out of the end zone. So they kept us to 13 for 59 and a half minutes, whatever, more. But yeah, you're right. They should be moving the ball better at this point in Justin Fields, especially against a second-rate defense. I mean, we had guys in Overshawn.
Starting point is 00:06:36 We had Tyrus Wheat, Carla. I could name guys you'll never, ever hear of again on defense. But they didn't do it. They couldn't get downfield, which was great. It was really a team effort I haven't seen from the Cowboys in a while. Oh, you're so proud. It's like you just watched Harrison hit a grand slam. You know, it was as you're watching it, you are thinking,
Starting point is 00:06:56 or at least I was thinking, like this is kind of a perfect offense for the Cowboys to go against. Yeah. Because they just have these hodgepodge defensive backs and they're just dying to be thrown out. But the Steelers are the exact wrong team to do that. You know, you're playing you get the Lions next week.
Starting point is 00:07:12 Pretty sure that secondary is going to be in a little bit of a different shape next week against Goff and those receivers. I watched football all day. I watched everything and the Steelers and the AFC North in general, I just don't know what to make of it.
Starting point is 00:07:27 Because the Steelers, they win. There was a moment today when it seemed like Cincinnati was going to beat Baltimore. When it seemed like if the Steelers won tonight, they were going to have a two-game lead after five weeks. And now everybody's bunched together again. But it just feels like they missed a window. But I'm not sure they're that good either.
Starting point is 00:07:44 Yeah. I mean, you want, I was talking to house about this on ringer pregame show. And he's like, his big pick was the Steelers. I said, that's fine.
Starting point is 00:07:51 But any team who scores 20 points has a shot, right? Yeah. Against this knuckleball offense. Cause they're only going to put up about 17, 18, 20 points a game. So that's why I felt good.
Starting point is 00:08:03 But yeah, the fact that they're not in sync as they should be is interesting. Yeah. They've gone 18, 18, 20 points a game. So that's why I felt good. But yeah, the fact that they're not in sync as they should be is interesting. Yeah, they've gone 18, 13, 20, 24 last week against the Colts, 17 today. So they are who you are. I forgot you did the Ringer pregame show today. Yeah, maybe.
Starting point is 00:08:19 So you've been going, and that was even before the London game started. So this is the longest stretch of media, longest break you've had doing media in the same day? This is it. So I guess now it's Monday. I don't mind it, though. Let it go.
Starting point is 00:08:35 It should be all day. It should be the second you wake up to the second you go to sleep. In fact, I'm going to sprint upstairs after you say good job by you, and that'll be that. I don't think I've been on the East Coast for a London game. It's kind of great. Yeah. Because normally when you're on the East Coast, and we both grew up here, so we were used to it forever.
Starting point is 00:08:56 And then we moved to the West Coast and football started coming on at 10 o'clock. But the London game was always this 6.30. You always woke up because you were a psycho. I would kind of wake up at some point, somewhere in the first, second quarter, and somebody was always up 17-0. That's just how the London game goes. Like, ah, 17-0.
Starting point is 00:09:16 Rich Eisen's getting guys' names wrong. And you're like, ah, it's the London game. This time, I got to watch it the entire time. And as it led to Viking 17, nothing. So I actually got to actual feel for how it goes. And it, it, it,
Starting point is 00:09:31 it just is a long day. I mean, especially like this Monday night football or Sunday night football. Even if it ended at normal hour, it's still midnight or it's still like 1145. It's very dark on the East coast when these night games start, right? It's always weird. Like when we go back to do Kimball in Brooklyn
Starting point is 00:09:48 every September, October, it's like, oh my God, the Monday night game doesn't start till 8.50. It used to start at nine. Remember when we were growing up, it was at nine. Right. It was almost like 9.10. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I do feel like, I don't know if we just get older
Starting point is 00:10:03 and we're used to being in routines, but I felt out of whack the whole day because I didn't have my West Coast routine. Like I had the four TVs on the multi-view. I didn't really get to see enough of the Indianapolis-Jacksonville game. I didn't know when to have my coffee. It's like, when do I have my coffee?
Starting point is 00:10:20 Usually I have my coffee right after the late games, but now it's like, we're between the early and the late games. What do I do? It was pretty fun though. You probably blew off church too, which was odd for you, right? I did blow off church.
Starting point is 00:10:30 Because of the London game. Okay. Let's play a game of, is it time to believe? Is it time to still believe in the Cowboys? We'll start there. You're three and two. You're a game behind this weird C words team. That's four and one
Starting point is 00:10:46 that's scoring 34 points a game for a month basically, but also hasn't really played anybody. Are you, are you back in? Are you believing again? So what do I, what does it mean? If I believe, do I believe they can make the playoffs and then blow it like they do every January? Yes, I do. But it has less to do with them than it does with what the league has presented us. Which potential seven seed am I afraid of in the NFC? Who would you be afraid of? Seattle or Chicago? Who's going to grab Arizona?
Starting point is 00:11:16 Who's grabbing that seven seed? Green Bay? I'm in Boston. I thought FanDuel would have your division odds yet. They don't have it yet. I would assume you're still favored, right? Or close? Or maybe the Eagles are favored?
Starting point is 00:11:30 I think this win helps. But yeah, it was the Eagles, right? Yeah, so... They don't have it up yet. To answer your question, who are you afraid of? This NFC playoff picture is super weird. So there's only one undefeated team. Minnesota's 5-0. There's only one undefeated team. Minnesota's 5-0. There's only one 4-win team.
Starting point is 00:11:48 It's Washington at 4-1. Detroit's 3-1. Then the following teams are 3-2. Seattle, Green Bay, Chicago, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Dallas. And then Philly and New Orleans are 2-2. So that's five...
Starting point is 00:12:05 That's 11 teams that realistically think they have a puncher's chance, including everyone in the NFC North. So A, I don't know who you'd be afraid of. And B, you should probably be afraid because there's seven spots for 11 teams. Well, we only kicked one team out, right? The Panthers.
Starting point is 00:12:21 And I think we kicked the Giants out. So they have to actually go away because we told them to. I think we have to re-invite the Giants back. Oh, no. Maybe to like a cocktail mixer or something. I don't know. They look pretty good today. It's so weird.
Starting point is 00:12:33 They are such a weird team. Daniel Jones, every two years, has a weird road game, right? We should have seen it coming. Everybody hurts on offense. Ridiculous. Daniel Jones is awesome. All right. More is the time to believe.
Starting point is 00:12:46 Our offense is back. We were all upset the first two weeks about how sloppy and disjointed the games were and the quarterback, the fantasy numbers. This was the first day where it really felt like, you know,
Starting point is 00:13:02 there's some exceptions, but it really felt like teams were moving the ball. They're having drives, running good plays, zipping the ball around. It was way more entertaining football today. I thought so, but I thought that last week, too. We had some early games, 10 a.m. out here, where it wasn't like 7-3, right? There was a lot of scoring in the early games last week. I'll say you might have a whole different category for this,
Starting point is 00:13:26 but I think the rookie quarterbacks all being decent now obviously helps the offenses, right? Where those were just duds week one. So I think they are back. I think they gave us a month of the offensive lines not being in sync and whatever else. Yeah, I'm going to say they're back for the most part. Well, I was just looking at our fantasy scores
Starting point is 00:13:47 in our knockout league, which I'm now 0-5, which I don't know if you want to talk about that now or later. Did you lose that? Somehow lost today, even though Damoshek started fields over Joe Burrow, who had 38 points. Dagger. But I had the most points in the league. He had the second most.
Starting point is 00:14:04 But you look around and some teams were in the hundreds again. It felt like those days of fantasy where you might not even see that anymore. All right. Is it time to believe number two? Teasers are officially dead. We're just all banned from doing them. Are we there officially? Yeah, we are. The two teaser teams today were
Starting point is 00:14:25 Seattle and San Francisco. It was like, don't do those. One of those two teams is going to F you. And both of them did. What can I say? I mean, yes, this is despicable. What can I say because you teased them? Because I teased them and I'm
Starting point is 00:14:41 going to do it next week too. I need a Colombian drug lord to threaten my family's life before I stop doing teasers. But what is the number now? It's the, oh God, like seven plus point dogs are seven and two outright. Five and a half plus dogs have 13 straight up wins. It's crazy. Enough already. Were those,
Starting point is 00:15:07 those were the two biggest lines, right? The late, the four game. Niners and the Seahawks, yeah. Those are the two biggest lines. Other than the Chiefs. Yeah, I think that. Yeah. Yeah, those are the two biggest
Starting point is 00:15:18 and they went down. Please don't do teases unless you're teasing a team the other way, which I did last week with the Titans on Monday night against Miami. All right. So we covered that. The Patriots are the worst team in the league.
Starting point is 00:15:29 Oh, I knew this was coming. Why did you know it was coming? Because I'm a Patriot fan. What? What is it? Because we've lost four straight. You're in Boston. You're emotional.
Starting point is 00:15:40 I get it. You think they're the worst? Oh, yeah. I think them versus Miami was the battle. Well, at least for the AFC, for who's the worst team in the AFC and the Patriots won. And they're the worst team in the AFC.
Starting point is 00:15:53 We'll see. I don't know. I can't remember if they played Carolina this year, but that's the anti-cream of the crop. That's the spray of cream at the top. The Patriots are awful. I have some thoughts about this later that I'm going to save for the gimmick
Starting point is 00:16:06 that we're doing later. But I think that's official. You do go to Tennessee. That's winnable. That's about it. I don't know. You go to Arizona. Yeah, it doesn't get easy after this.
Starting point is 00:16:20 All right, I'm going to do some of my Jacoby Brissett material now. He has not hit 700 pass yards yet for the season in five games. He's at 696. Wow. He's on pace for less than 2,500 yards, which is something out of the 1960s. He's averaging 139.2 pass yards a game.
Starting point is 00:16:42 How many touchdowns do you think he's thrown this year? Five games? is it one, two touchdowns and one pick and 17 sacks. But the good news is he's, he's good with his legs. Oh no, he's not. He's rushed for 51 yards total. He's on pace for less than 10 touchdowns this year, less than 10 touchdowns in 2024. He's played every game, all the games. They've had multiple times in the red zone and inside the other teams 40. I've never seen anything like this. And it's the most divisive Patriot argument
Starting point is 00:17:16 since Brady Bledsoe, even though it's like the dumb version of it. Because there's people who's like, the line is so bad, you can't play Drake May yet. You can't, you're yet. You can't. You're just throwing him. He's going to die. But if you watch the games, part of the reason the lines are so bad is because Brissette
Starting point is 00:17:33 can't throw the ball more than five yards downfield. So the teams move up. And it's basically like if you're playing a video game, it's like the other teams are basically in goal line defense. They're just all the way up. The safeties are 10 yards off the line. They're just completely unafraid of him. So yeah, they can't block because there's 11 guys coming
Starting point is 00:17:52 because they know that this guy can't throw over the top. He throws it out of bounds. It's the dumbest thing I've ever seen. It's one thing, like I'm glad they're losing. I bet all the unders. I want them to get another top three pick, but I don't understand why you wouldn't want to have a quarterback who could at least
Starting point is 00:18:05 give you a chance to compete. And he seems like a nice guy. We've talked about him before, but he's just not a competent starting quarterback. Like, play Joe Milton if you don't want to play Drake May. Go sign people off the waiver wire. Go get Tyler Huntley. There's got to be five
Starting point is 00:18:21 more of those on the waiver wire, right? Go get one of those guys. Frustrating. I'll tell you what. I have three words for you. You deserve it. You do. That's fair. You do. I mean, you had the greatest of all time for two decades. This is like, I would think like, it's like Bill Gates. If he's
Starting point is 00:18:38 going to be reincarnated and he's like he becomes like a cockroach in Malaysia. It's like, all right, that's fair. Come on. What are you going to do? You had the best and now you have the worst. He's not even the worst. We'll get to the worst a little later. He's up there. Well, you're not paying him a zillion dollars.
Starting point is 00:18:54 So that's nice. There are some fan bases. The receivers are open. You know what's crazy? The Pats are 1-4. I honestly think they could have beaten the Niners last week. They could have beaten Seattle. They lost an OT, but they had the ball with a chance to clinch it. And they should have won today. And it's not just Percet.
Starting point is 00:19:10 The coaching is awful. It's just awful. Like they had, they're down five. Maybe they're trying to tank. So if they're trying to tank, congratulations, because it's working. But they're down five with like, I don't know, two and a half minutes left, two minutes left. And they get, of course they have to get a false start on fourth and 10.
Starting point is 00:19:27 So now it's fourth and 15. Yeah. Unlike the 20. And they're like, yeah, let's go for it. Jacoby Brissett, the guy who literally can't do anything.
Starting point is 00:19:35 Let's, let's see if he can complete this. Just kick the field goal. You'd all three timeouts. Like this is like basic football one-on-one shit that the coaching staff can't do over. They fucked up the end of the first half. So the part that scares me is because we went through this with the Celtics in the mid nineties where it was like, no, no, it's a marathon, not a sprint.
Starting point is 00:19:55 We're trying to build something long-term and it was like ML Carr, but ML Carr was trying to win the whole time. And then like near the end, it became, no, no, he was trying to lose. I was like, no, no, I was going to the games. He was trying to win. The Patriots are trying to win these games. They're just incompetent. I think it's so bad to take the number three pick, take a quarterback, don't put an offensive line in front of him. Now he can't play the whole year. So he's just basically red shirted this year and the team sucks anyway. It makes me mad. It's frustrating. I know you can't like it for sure. And I don't know.
Starting point is 00:20:27 I guess there's this new Huntley's back there, but is it going to be that much better? You think? I guess you'll pull out a close game here or there. Maybe there's nobody. There really isn't a lot. There's not a lot. Like I look at Flacco. I'm like, everybody should have that guy.
Starting point is 00:20:40 That's spectacular what he does for that team. You know, even though they came up short. But this is not enough of them. Let's take a break for the podcast. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with FanDuel, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers can bet $5 and get $300
Starting point is 00:20:59 in bonus bets if you win. You heard me correctly. The FanDuel Sportsbook Guide gives you everything you need to place live bets on the NFL in one place. So when you get a hunch me correctly. The FanDuel Sportsbook app gives you everything you need to place live bets on the NFL in one place. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, check out their latest stats, view live play-by-play. So much more on the same page
Starting point is 00:21:13 where you place your bets. All you have to do is visit fanduel.com slash BS to join today. You'll get started with $300 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. Never waste a hunch. Make every moment more with FanDuel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. You must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC.
Starting point is 00:21:35 First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too.
Starting point is 00:22:05 You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal
Starting point is 00:22:19 and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. So more is the time of weave. Do you believe in the Ravens yet? They've stolen a couple games. Yeah, I do.
Starting point is 00:22:33 40 wins. Do you see the outrushed opponents by 750 yards this year already? In five games? Is that what it is? 100, 110, or 125, 150. Yeah, I can add. 150 yards per game more.
Starting point is 00:22:45 You nailed it. You said they're a must watch. What'd you call it? A must four box or something? I said I tweeted Lamar as the king of multi-view. He's just got to, at least regular season,
Starting point is 00:22:55 he's got to be on. He's too excited. Yeah, and you could hate the team and you could hate everyone on them for what they've done to your fantasy team, like Mark Andrews and Flowers
Starting point is 00:23:04 and Justin Tucker, these guys, but they are a must watch them and for what they've done to your fantasy team like mark andrews and uh flowers and justin tucker these guys but they are a must watch and they're i don't know i feel like they're more dangerous how they did it today than if they have like a 10 point lead because we see how they struggle to hold leads but um good luck keeping them under 35 or 30 you know right in there because they have different ways to beat you. And Derek Henry, you could forget about him for like a half hour. And it's like, oh yeah, there's a 35-yard run. They have that at their disposal. They have a weakness, which is you can throw on them.
Starting point is 00:23:33 And the Bengals threw on them over and over and over again. There's this, I was looking at the play-by-play after the game. Starting in the third quarter, I think there was like six or seven straight touchdowns just passing back and forth before that Burrow interception. But they couldn't stop Burrow. Burrow was getting whatever he wanted. And it was just a horrific, horrific Bengals loss, which we will talk about in our next segment that we have.
Starting point is 00:23:59 But if I had to pick an AFC team, I would still pick the Chiefs, but it feels like the Ravens have the most answers, especially with the Bills starting to slide back. The Bills were the rabbit team. They look good after three games, but there's a lot of holes with the Bills that we can discuss, but it feels like Ravens.
Starting point is 00:24:19 And the Texans are kind of, they're not knocking anyone's socks off, but they're quietly four and one. They're going to be five and one after next week. And socks off, but they're quietly 4-1. They're going to be 5-1 after next week, and it just feels like they're headed to 12-5, 13-4, and we're not going to understand it. But their quarterback's just fantastic. They have a pass rush.
Starting point is 00:24:39 There's enough there that I would bet on the upside with them, don't you think? I think so. I want to see this Nico Collins injury, because that seemed like two different games when he went out, right? For the Texans. So that's what I have to see. But the Ravens are right there. Here's the thing with the Bills.
Starting point is 00:24:54 I know everyone wants to kick them to the curb because they had a weird game today. McDermott, whatever. Two weird games. I'm looking at that division, and they're minus 220 to win that division. The more I look at it, I think nine and eight takes it. I'm not impressed with it. I mean, your team went over. I don't think the Dolphins clawed back,
Starting point is 00:25:13 and I think nine is now optimistic for Aaron Rodgers' Jets. Yeah, the Bills on Fandor are minus 220, and the Jets are plus 340, and that seems out of whack because I think the Jets could easily go 9-8 and somehow get the division. You know, the next one for Is It Time to Believe, how
Starting point is 00:25:35 wide open do you think the NFC West is? Because the Niners are 2-3. Yeah. And Arizona once again came back and did some stuff. Just after last week when we counted them out. And Arizona once again came back and did, and did some stuff where just after last week when we counted them out and then Seattle's three and two, even though they looked awful today, but talk about nine and eight could take a division. That feels like a nine and eight thing.
Starting point is 00:25:56 So the Rams are one and four heading into a buy, but they're getting cup and Nakua back and I'm not writing them off yet. Like they're 15 to one on FanDuel to win the division. I'm not writing off the Rams yet, as bad as their defense is. No, you can't. You can't write off any of those teams. And it is a little bit weird that the Niners are 2-3, right? I didn't get this wrong.
Starting point is 00:26:13 They're 2-3, and they're favored at minus 115 to take that division. I know they play Seattle Thursday night, but Kyle Shanahan's becoming a master at blowing double-digit leads in the fourth quarter, which wasn't really their thing back in the Super Bowl year and the last few years that they've been dominant. And obviously, McCaffrey is a big part of that, as good as the backup's been. But yeah, no, you can't count any of those teams. Arizona looks good. He's not on special teams. Special teams has murdered them this whole season. He's not on the defense
Starting point is 00:26:48 messing up some of these drives when they just need to stop. I'm sure they're trying to blame McCaffrey, but do you feel like it would be that different with McCaffrey? Well, I think if you're talking about closing out with double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. Yeah, you're right.
Starting point is 00:27:03 You're right. Oh, I had on the Houston is a time to believe. Remember we talked in the Futures pod about could Houston be the one seed? I feel like that's still in play. When you think with the KC receiver injuries and really probably nobody else in the AFC. I wouldn't rule out that one. Is it time to believe Aaron Rodgers might be
Starting point is 00:27:26 smaller case washed, not all caps washed? Aaron Rodgers, I think you could believe that like three times every week and then go back to not believing it, right? He looked like he had a debilitating injury today and then came right back on the field. Yeah. And his body language suggests that he doesn't want to be there a lot of the time.
Starting point is 00:27:50 Right. But then it's like, Oh, he's yelling at the ref for one of the worst throws we saw all day at the end of the game. So in that regard, I'm like, Oh,
Starting point is 00:27:59 he's back that, that Aaron Rogers is back. But I'll say the hopeful thing is he recognized that Garrett Wilson, who everybody told us we had to take in the top six picks in our fantasy draft. I have him in two leagues. He did hit him. How many receptions did he have? Did he have 10 or more?
Starting point is 00:28:15 I thought he had 12. Oh, 12, right. Yeah, he had 12. That's promising, but talk about a team that's out of sync. Should be a lot better than they are. I ran up to take a shower when Rodgers went down because I thought the game was over. It was like, they're carrying him off. It's done. And then I came back down and my daughter's boyfriend was like, oh no, no, they was a rough in the kicker call. And now Rodgers was headed to the boot
Starting point is 00:28:40 and just came back in. And then all of a sudden the Jets were driving. I was like, what just happened? And then they showed the ref in the kicker, and it was the worst ref in the kicker call probably in the history of football. It was really bad. Worst case scenario, what's the other one? Like running into the kicker, but it's a five-yarder? Yeah, that's five, yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:01 Yeah, I mean, he threw 54 times. And on the other side, I don't know how much you want to talk about the Vikings but Sam Darnold made that a very winnable game he was 14 for 31 and he seemed worse I know he his last drive was probably pretty good probably his best but um I don't know maybe he might be a little banged up too I thought he took a hit in the first quarter and was never the same which of course the announcers didn't notice. I had that for the next, is it time to believe?
Starting point is 00:29:30 Is it time to believe Sam Darnold and or Derek Carr are turning into a pumpkin soon as we head toward Halloween? Oh, good timing. Sam was 14 for 31 today and airmailed at least eight, nine throws. And Jefferson got pissed at one point. And then he made a couple near the end to basically save the game. But both of those guys, like the Vikings are 5-0.
Starting point is 00:29:51 I'm not going to shit on Sam Darnold. But yeah, you watch a game like today and you're like, I'm still not going to trust this in January. I'm just not. Yeah. I think everything kind of has to be perfect for them to be perfect, right?
Starting point is 00:30:04 Like Aaron Jones went out early and their offense was different. But he's Aaron Jones. That happens to Aaron Jones. Yeah, right. But an injured-ish Sam Darnold was asked to do more and really couldn't.
Starting point is 00:30:16 I mean, if it wasn't the Jets, such lethargic offense, they would have been in a lot of trouble. But they get the leads, man. They were up 10-0. They did it again. Got a couple plays. So you would have Darnold turning into a pumpkin over Carr?
Starting point is 00:30:31 Who would you pick? Get to pick one for a pumpkin. Oh, we got to see Carr tomorrow. Yeah. I'll say Carr just because I feel that's safe. What's he going to do? The last one is a time to believe. The rookie QB is Caleb and Daniels.
Starting point is 00:30:50 Yeah. And Bo Nix, no? You don't want to throw him in there? I don't. I started Caleb in one of my leagues because of this Carolina matchup where they had the worst pass rush in the league. Pass rush?
Starting point is 00:31:06 Oh. Worst pass rush in the league. And a bad pass day. I was like, this seems like a perfect matchup for Caleb. And of course it was. He looked great. Yeah. I'm still not 100% sold.
Starting point is 00:31:17 I want to see them with a fierce defense, like how they hold up, because I don't think they can block. Daniels looks like he's going to be an MVP candidate now. Yeah. Especially because we don't have MVP candidates.
Starting point is 00:31:30 It's basically him and Lamar. It was Brock Purdy until he lost that game today and Josh Allen is free-falling. So I don't even know
Starting point is 00:31:37 who the MVP candidates are but Daniels has to be in there. jumped to second. He's plus 600. Mahomes, they still keep him steady at plus 270 and Lamar Jackson's plus 600. Mahomes, they still keep him steady at plus 270. And Lamar Jackson's plus 650.
Starting point is 00:31:47 But yeah, Jaden is now a sizable minus 210 favorite for offensive rookie of the year. And he looks so poised and everything. I don't want to make too much out of it because he beat up a fraudulent team, who I'm sure we'll talk about in a minute. But man, he looks good. He looks good.
Starting point is 00:32:06 And Caleb Williams looks like that Bears offense is weird when it's clicking, right? It seems like everything's going downhill. And I'm very impressed with actually both of them, Daniels especially. But after a month for them to be where they are is pretty cool.
Starting point is 00:32:22 So the last one I have, well, who would you bet on right now with MVP? Because we talked about this when Alan looked like he was the prohibitive MVP favorite after three weeks, and we were like, this never works. There was that Russell Wilson moment. Yeah. What was that?
Starting point is 00:32:39 Four years ago, and people were like, Russ has never won an MVP, and this is his year after like four. Every year there's a guy after three, four games, we get all excited. And then it just flips in two weeks. Um, if you had to bet on any of these dudes,
Starting point is 00:32:54 would it be Stroud? Stroud fits a lot of the model. Cause they're going to be there. One or two seed. Yeah. And he was, I thought he was spectacular today, even though I know the points maybe didn't reflect it,
Starting point is 00:33:03 but I thought he did a lot of great stuff today. And when they lost Collins, you know, they, they, and they didn't have their started. They basically didn't have Mixer or Collins and he kept them hanging around that game.
Starting point is 00:33:13 Right. I think you have to take Stroud at six to one. Cause he does fit that, you know, what do you need to be like a top two seed and maybe they don't get, maybe they don't get first, but they should get second. I, on the other hand, have to take Dak motherfucking Prescott
Starting point is 00:33:28 at 25 to one. Wow. No, no, no, no. I won't do that. Those aren't bad odds. I'm going to stick with Josh Allen. I still think by default the Bills are going to have a hefty win total, and I like it at plus 750.
Starting point is 00:33:43 Daniel Dimes at 201. Is he up there? Wow. Yeah. He's my next is a time to believe. That was an awesome game he played today. And I had I had Seattle. I had a first half game bet on Seattle.
Starting point is 00:34:00 And the Giants, the game should have been over in the first half. They were dominating. They had a stupid turnover right in the goal line. But Dimes was awesome. Dimes looked like the Dimes from two years ago. And they didn't have Malik Nabors, which was one of the reasons I thought Seattle was going to have it
Starting point is 00:34:16 because Malik Nabors was their whole offense. All of a sudden, these other receivers got involved. Some random running back that I guarantee didn't start for anybody. He probably had 100 yards, maybe more. Tyrone Tracy, everybody picked him up Saturday night in their fantasy league, and he had 129 yards. But I thought Dimes kind of
Starting point is 00:34:33 controlled the game. And he was in Seattle. I mean, Seattle, they're missing dudes all over on their defense. They were a little fraudulent maybe to begin with, but I thought Dimes was the best part of the field. I wish I could be smarter about these games i wish you and i could talk like friday and be like all right this was like five and a half six and now neighbors is out and he's the only one who could stretch the field who the hell single terry's out of whatever he's a running back but
Starting point is 00:34:58 who was gonna who were you afraid of on the giants at this point oh and it jumped to seven the line i wish i could see that i'm ooh, there's nice value in that. No, I always have to go the other way. Seahawks teaser. And then, but you're right. They could have won this game by three touchdowns. If they call that a different, I feel like if there's another angle
Starting point is 00:35:15 on that one yard plunge that went 99 the other way. Yeah, they might've had the touchdown. Yeah, they could have won this game. It could have been well over in the third quarter. Well, here's why week four, week five is so much fun. Because now you look back at the Giants games and we crossed them off. We were like, they suck.
Starting point is 00:35:32 So they lose to Minnesota 28-6 in week one. Turns out Minnesota is a 5-0 team with a really good defense and the Giants weren't ready for it. Week two, they lose to Washington 21-18. And the takeaway from that game is, why didn't they have a backup field goal kicker? Basically, if they had a field goal kicker, they win
Starting point is 00:35:52 the game. Week three, they beat Cleveland at Cleveland. Week four... What? They should have beat Dallas. That's what's coming next. Yeah, they lost to Dallas and easily, easily, easily could No doubt. They should have beat Dallas. That's what's coming next. Yeah. They'd lost the Dallas and easily, easily,
Starting point is 00:36:08 easily could have won. They could have. And then they went in Seattle like that. The giants might actually be pretty good. And this was their hardest stretch of the season. So they have home Cincy, home Philly at Pittsburgh, home Washington.
Starting point is 00:36:22 And then they're going to London for at Carolina Week 10. But they might get to 5-5 after 10 games. It's not inconceivable. I think the NFC East is going to be bizarre. No, I know. Yeah, I'm nervous about
Starting point is 00:36:38 when we play them again. I think they could split with Washington and Philly. They played Philly tough last year. Wandel Robinson is making TikToks in the locker room, getting screamed at by Daybolts. It's a fun team all of a sudden. So I think the Giants aren't in pole position for Belichick anymore.
Starting point is 00:36:57 Oh, really? It's like Jacksonville now. I think Steven Ruiz, I think he was right. They do have division odds up now for that. What is it? Give it to me. It's still Eagles plus 130, Commanders plus 200,
Starting point is 00:37:11 Cowboys 260. You're Giants 20 to 1. Take the Giants and the Rams. Now, we said Washington last week. Remember when we did that a week ago, Washington was plus 360? Yeah, we change our mind all the time. But we were just saying that's good value,
Starting point is 00:37:25 and now it's 2-1. Yeah, now it's down to. The last one for Is It Time to Believe is, I know the Bengals, and we're going to talk about it in a second, that they blew that game, but the Bengals offense, like the Burrow stats,
Starting point is 00:37:38 and the two receivers going, like the Bengals offense is back. That's like the fantasy offense, where it's like, I'm just getting Burrow and I'm getting both receivers. I think that's what we're going to get the rest of the way.
Starting point is 00:37:52 Yeah, five touchdowns and close games for Burrow. I'm with you. Something's just not right otherwise. What do you have? Just to Higgins and Chase, it was like 280 yards. But yeah, he's on fire.
Starting point is 00:38:09 Just can't win. Now it's time for today's Player Bundles segment presented by State Farm. Though it's tough to crown the best play in football history, no one can deny the magic when the right two players work together to pull off the unexpected. I'm not just saying this because you're here, but one of the first great football plays I ever saw was the Pearson play. Oh, look at that. Stalback to Pearson. Watched that one with my dad. Seemed like he pushed off, but I didn't know any better. I was like, fine.
Starting point is 00:38:40 But that was like what considered to be one of the original Hail Marys, even though it wasn't really a Hail Mary. But you had stopped back. What was your best combo? Was it Aikman Irvin? There's been so, I mean, yeah, I think it would have to be Aikman Irvin. Mine is Moss Brady. Moss Brady 07 or mid-2010s Brady Gronk would be my 1A, 1B. Moss, Brady, 2007
Starting point is 00:39:07 was one of the greatest sports experiences of my entire life, right until the end. Are you going to cry? All the way through. It was so much fun. That first step, when they were in FU mode after Spygate,
Starting point is 00:39:18 that was the most fun I've ever had as a football fan. I loved it so much. We just unleashed Moss. Please give Jacoby Brissett to Mario Douglas a chance before you lock in on a It would be Jalen Pope
Starting point is 00:39:31 who was wide open for the touchdown except Brissett sailed it almost over his head. That's your guy. Well, you know what else is better together? Bundling your home
Starting point is 00:39:40 and auto insurance with the personal price plan from State Farm. It's a personal price plan that you call the place so you can choose the right coverage at a price that's right for you. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can bundle and save with the personal price plan.
Starting point is 00:39:52 Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. Okay. Des Romo is my favorite. Des and Romo. Let's restart the ad. Start the ad over. Yeah. Des Romo. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference.
Starting point is 00:40:20 Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. TD and your small business go together like... T.D.'s small business account managers have in-depth business banking expertise,
Starting point is 00:40:58 so they can give you the advice and resources you need to make your day-to-day easier. So if you're ready to meet your small business match, we're ready for you. Visit td.com slash small business match to book an appointment with one of our advisors. All right, we're going to do a week five incompetency draft because there was a lot of incompetency today.
Starting point is 00:41:21 And I'm going to give you the first pick. Who do you have? All right. Okay, I am going to take for this, I'm going to give you the first pick. Who do you have? All right. Okay. I am going to take, um, for this, I'm going to take my aunt Chippy because she's always leaking. She's 84 years old. God bless her. And it, oh, did you say incontinency? No, incompetency. Oh, I thought you said incontinency. People being incompetent. Oh, my list is going to be very different from yours. No, no, no. She's fine. She's fine. Oh, if list is going to be very different from yours. And Chippy's leaking? No, no, no. She's fine.
Starting point is 00:41:45 She's fine. Oh, if she listens, I'm in a lot of trouble here. No way she's listening. She loves Browns talk. All right, let me start it off because I don't know why the shit has hit the fan with these Browns, but the Haslams. Literally. Yes. Dee and Jimmy Haslam.
Starting point is 00:42:03 Yeah. I'm not blaming Stefanski anymore for having Deshaun Watson in there I refuse to think that he thinks this is a winning formula and I don't even know why the Haslam's are doing it they know they can make the playoffs without him they did it last year I know they have to pay him a lot of money I think you may have hit on something I don't know if you met it meant it this, but are they playing him in the hopes that he gets hurt? Now, salary wise, that wouldn't matter. They're still on the hook
Starting point is 00:42:29 for all of it, even if he got hurt. But maybe they're just like setting him up like Tony Soprano set up Feech Lamonna, right? Remember he's like, yeah, I want him to suffer. That's the best. It's so good. That might be what's going on here,
Starting point is 00:42:46 but honestly, just start anyone else and you could probably win a lot of these games. I mean, when the QBR number is in the 7, 8.3 every week, enough already. What are you doing to these fans? These are winnable games. Well, first of all, they're not a playoff team. And I think it's way more fun to have Watson
Starting point is 00:43:05 being like historically bad every week. Like the tweets are really fun. Austin Gale always has these tweets about through, through five weeks, this is the worst offense in Cleveland. Through five weeks, this is the worst offense since 2018. He, uh, he was 15 for 28 today for 125 yards. They were one for 13 on third down, and they averaged 3.6 yards per play. Said 17 starts, and he's never thrown for 300. He was my first pick. Never thrown for 300 for them.
Starting point is 00:43:36 What do you think is going on? What do you think is going on, honestly? I think he's the most disliked local NFL player by a fan base that I can remember. Has any fan base disliked a player more than this? Who are the Deshaun fans in Cleveland at this point?
Starting point is 00:43:54 This guy's literally ruined your entire decade of football. I don't remember a guy holding a city hostage for a single sport like this. I think there's probably, you can name a bunch of basketball players that stuck around a little too long, maybe cost some team,
Starting point is 00:44:11 but this is just bizarre because you have last year to compare it to, and they had four quarterbacks, maybe even five by the time it was over, and they made the playoffs. So yes, they're stuck with this contract. They're never going to dig their way out in the next five, seven years, whatever. But yes, they could also make the play. Not this year. They're not making the playoffs this year, but what the hell did
Starting point is 00:44:33 Jameis Winston do that they don't want to put him in? I mean, it's outrageous now. So there's three possible theories. You asked me what are they doing? Yeah. One is the sinister theory. They're hoping he gets hurt. Two is he's a sunk cost. So the moment you punt on this, you've basically ruined the next two, three years of your team anyway. You just have him on the bench sulking. He's going to be such a cancer that you almost feel like you're better off just having him out there praying and hoping that the talent comes back and you turn it around. And then the third
Starting point is 00:45:13 thing I think would be just sheer stubbornness that this owner, he's just like a crazy rich guy. No, no, he's going to be fine. He's going to be fine. I was watching some 2019 Texans tapes yesterday. It's going to come back. It's not going to be fine. It doesn't seem like it. It doesn't seem like he has any zip on his throws anymore. Nothing. It doesn't seem like he cares.
Starting point is 00:45:37 Nothing really matters, you know? And I even gave him a little bit of a pass last week because he had two big plays called back, but then he goes right back to being 2024 Deshaun Watson. Frame him like Feech is what I say. I'll make the t-shirts. It's a really weird thing to have a sunk cost on a team. We had it on the Celtics with Vin Baker
Starting point is 00:45:59 when it was just clear he wasn't going to be able to play, and then you just go to the salaries, and you're just like, oh my God. We're not getting out of this for three more years. It's almost an entire presidential term. There's no outs. We can't trade him. Just play him again. Maybe he'll get better. So it feels like they're still in the maybe he'll get better stage, but he's not going to get better. Can Stefanski make a statement and be like, listen, I'm a two-time Coach of the Year winner. You people don't honestly think that I think this is our best path to winning, right?
Starting point is 00:46:32 Like, just future employers, please know that this is, I have a gun to my head here, and this is all hassle. Well, it's like first year at JKL. It's like Daniel had to do a bunch of stuff that ABC wanted him to do and he didn't get to follow his vision for the show. Oh,
Starting point is 00:46:50 okay. All right. All right. Yeah. That's what, yeah, that's, that is what happened.
Starting point is 00:46:53 I think, I think that's what happened. Feach, Daniel. Yeah. Uh, there are no outs. I don't know what they do.
Starting point is 00:47:04 And, um, I, if I'm a Cleveland fan, I don't know if I'd be able to watch anymore. What's funny is six weeks ago, you pick Cleveland for the playoffs. Either Watson
Starting point is 00:47:19 will come back or he'll suck and they'll just put in somebody else and this is still like a 9 or 10 win team. But nobody ever predicted the scenario. Watson is still going to be awful and they're just going to leave him in every week and that's how it's going to go. And the defenders, you talk about the city
Starting point is 00:47:35 hating him. The rest of the team has got to be done with them. The defense is good. I know that they've progressed to the mean now. I think they're like 13th or 14th in the league. That's because it's three and outs all the time with the offense. Like the defense can't be dynamite like it was. I know Miles Garrett has two foot injuries and everything else, but. All right, I'm going to go.
Starting point is 00:47:55 I'm going to take Kyle Shanahan for all the reasons we talked about. The Niners are two and three, which is inexcusable. They've had two of the worst losses of the season. They're 0-2 in the West. They're 0-3 in the NFC. I disagree with their strategy stuff, especially in the fourth quarters. They just do dumb shit.
Starting point is 00:48:14 And they just are super sloppy and have so much talent. And especially when you're going all in and doing the IU extension and some of the other stuff they've done where they're basically like, this is our window we have to win. I know extension and some of the other stuff they've done where they're basically like this is our window we have to win. I know it's early in the NFL and I know we're going to zigzag a million times
Starting point is 00:48:31 but sloppy is always a bad sign. And they seem super sloppy. I think Purdy, he had two picks today but I think Purdy's actually kept him in some of these games. He's really like I think he's, I just think he's been really good. I'm with you.
Starting point is 00:48:48 Unlike the Browns, the Niners have a quarterback who's too good for the team to be two and three. You know? Yeah. Like he's, he makes good throws. Yeah, definitely. The stats don't back up how, like, some of the stuff he's doing and how he's keeping plays alive. And I don't even think their offensive
Starting point is 00:49:04 line's been that good. Right. So. I'm with you. That's a good one. Yeah plays alive. And I don't even think their offensive line's been that good. Right. So I'm with you. That's a good one. Yeah, Shanahan. I don't get it. All right, you go. All right.
Starting point is 00:49:13 Okay. Incompetency award. I'll give mine to Jason Garrett during a weather delay. Oh, boy. I'm so glad you brought this up. That was something else. That team just ad-libbing for an extra hour. They had 12 people and were somehow completely taken aback. It was their basically their podcast.
Starting point is 00:49:32 It's like us right now. They need another 12. Exactly. They need 24 people. And you really got some insight because I'm sorry, Jason Garrett. I wish I didn't hate him so much, but I don't need Jason Garrett breaking down Sean McDermott wish I didn't hate him so much, but I don't need Jason Garrett breaking down Sean McDermott's coaching decisions. Like you were the worst. This is like a dog reprimanding a human for peeing in the bushes.
Starting point is 00:49:54 I don't want to hear anything you have to say about coaching. So there you go. It's like now to talk about some poor treatment of women. We're going to bring in Ted Bundy. Yeah. Here he is.
Starting point is 00:50:08 Come on, Ted. Yeah, Garrett. I thought it was so funny that Jack Collinsworth ran out of material and they couldn't go back to him. I don't know, maybe it was the lightning delay, but maybe Jack, Matthew Barry had his one fantasy pick. They just had the four people in the studio just going for like 40 minutes.
Starting point is 00:50:27 I was dying. I thought it was so funny. They're like, Jason, do you have any Romo stories? He's just smiling and laughing and looking at the McCourty brother. I was dying. That was great.
Starting point is 00:50:42 An hour and a half. If they knew ahead of time that that was going to happen, what do you think they would have scheduled? I was dying. That was great. An hour and a half. Yeah. If they knew ahead of time that that was going to happen, what do you think they would have scheduled? I don't know. I don't know. You know, just show Chris Collins we're talking to the coaches or something. I have no idea.
Starting point is 00:50:59 Something. Here's an idea because this kills on social media. Just show different locker room speeches. Those are always great. Let's look at what Harbaugh told the Ravens after the game and show that and then come back and Jason Garrett could just be smiling like a baby. But I feel like they could have. It was just really funny.
Starting point is 00:51:19 Okay. Sean McDermott. Can't believe it took this long to get to him in Buffalo. 2020, they rallied back somehow. They're on the three yard line, 32 seconds left and just need to get it to overtime. And Houston has three timeouts. And anyone who has ever played a video game knows, run the ball three times, make them use all of their timeouts. They're going to get the ball with about 11 seconds left, no timeouts, hopefully on like their 40, and there won't be enough time to do anything. What do they do? Allen just chucks it downfield three times in a row. Houston gets the ball back. Stroud plays it perfectly. Fairbairn hits a 59 yarder and
Starting point is 00:52:01 Houston wins the game. Some of the worst coaching we've seen. Even Doug Peterson was like, wow. Wow, that was dumb. Wow. I couldn't believe it. He owned it, McDermott, right? He said he blamed himself, which is good. Did he own it?
Starting point is 00:52:19 Oh, yeah. No, he said it was poor coaching down the stretch by me. That's on me. But he did say it. But I think what these coaches have to realize is Oh, yeah. No, he said he's like, it was poor coaching down the stretch by me. That's on me. But he did say it. But I think what these coaches have to realize is everybody's kicking 60 yarders on the other way. Right. So even if you were normally going to go for it, take a chance by your five or 10, just know that everybody's one first down away. In fact, I get annoyed with announcers now where they're excited by a 55-yard field goal.
Starting point is 00:52:45 It's like, all right. We used to be when we saw someone flip a bottle and it would land upright. Yeah, the guy in the Vikings made two of them today, and it was like he'd just shown up in the league yesterday. Very strange. So, Allen was 9 for 30 for 131 yards,
Starting point is 00:53:02 and Buffalo was 3 for 14 on third down. And they're like, let's just chuck it from our own three. Really grim. What do you have? I'm going to go. All right. You know, we've talked about this.
Starting point is 00:53:16 The NFL schedule makers. The 405 start. Let's say you have a quartet of afternoon games. Two of them start at 425. 405 start. And let me tell you something. Almost always, one of those two 405 starts, there's a touchdown within 35 seconds.
Starting point is 00:53:35 Yeah. And we can't catch our breath from the great endings. 7-0 Raiders in five seconds. 7-0. And Kyla Murray scored early, right? And the other one. Missed both of them. And I know we could live bet,
Starting point is 00:53:46 so it's not as bad as it used to be, but you lose a lot of value in like the Arizona when they score, and then they go behind and your head starts playing games with it.
Starting point is 00:53:55 Make it 4-15 and 4-25. 4-15, that makes a world of difference instead of 4-05. I have some advice for our beloved friends at YouTube. Yeah. One of my favorite relationships. They have to fix it. So the multi-view, if there's the one game from the
Starting point is 00:54:12 earlies that's bleeding into the late games, I need to be able to multi-view that. And that happened with the Ravens. Couldn't watch the Ravens, but multi-view with the late games. They just need to fix that. Right. So the 405, so you're saying there's two kickoffs before the two main kickoffs. And you want to see those? Yeah, I only have one early game left. And I have all the late games. Just give me a new multi-view. Can't be hard.
Starting point is 00:54:36 Yep. Zach Taylor, I'm picking in the incompetency draft. They have four losses by 15 points. They completely choked against the Chiefs and the Ravens. Today, they got a gift of an OT fumble recovery from Lamar. Yeah. Who is fantastic today. And that somehow shotgun snap off the face
Starting point is 00:55:01 and it looked like yet another like dumb late game Lamar moment. We were like, God, why can't he figure out this, this one little piece. They get the ball and they played it to say they played it safe would be an understatement. They just basically ran in 10 guys three times in a row to set up like a 54 yarder for McPherson. And bad hold, he misses it. The Ravens get the ball back. Henry runs down. And they win. So, Zach Taylor is 10 and 21 now in the AFC North. Did you know this?
Starting point is 00:55:36 Is that what it is? The three teams he has to beat every year. He plays twice a year. He's 10 and 21 now. Wow. That's not good. It's not good. You know what else is good? 21 now. Wow. That's not good. It's not good. You know what else is good?
Starting point is 00:55:47 Go ahead. Yeah. Last playoff team to go one and four and then make the playoffs. Washington in 2020. Apparently the odds are 5.6%.
Starting point is 00:55:57 For the Bengals. 2020. That's with the new. Yeah, but that. Okay. So yeah. So that includes obviously this extra team and everything. Yeah. Well, I don't even remember that Okay. So, yeah. So, that includes, obviously, this extra team and everything. Yeah. Well, I don't even remember
Starting point is 00:56:08 that Washington. Oh, yeah. I guess I do. No, I think it should be Zach Taylor, but it should be a dual entry with Lou Anarumo because I had him written down like this guy was the greatest defensively, right? Like, oh, my God. I think I liked him because he was Italian, but 30th in the league in scoring
Starting point is 00:56:24 defense now. Like 30th. They have to be better. I mean, 520 yards versus the Ravens. As good as the Ravens are, you shouldn't in a must-win at home allow 520 yards. What Sopranos character is Lou Amarillo where it's like he was really good in the early seasons, but now it's like, wow, I'm ready for this guy to get whacked. Maybe a little Artie Bucco. I don't know. The Artie Bucco. Hey, I got some great view for you today. Have a seat. I got a great wine to go with it.
Starting point is 00:56:54 Ladies, let me take these menus. You won't be needing them today. I'm going to just draft two in a row here. Robert Saleh, who's now 20 and 36. We make fun of him every week. Just going to mention that. He's still one of the 20 worst coaches of all time by winning percentage, if you want to throw that out there.
Starting point is 00:57:17 The Doug Peterson-Trevor Lawrence combo. These guys, even when they win, it feels like a loss. What the hell? They just can't help themselves. Like, classic first quarter, they turn it over on downs because of course they do, right? They can't help that.
Starting point is 00:57:31 Then they get inside and I'm watching with Zoe's boyfriend and I'm like, watch this, watch the Jaguars, watch how stupid they are. It's like first and goal inside the head. I'm like, watch this, this is going to be amazing. And they end up, they do the three terrible plays and now it's like fourth and goal from the head. I'm like, watch this. This is going to be amazing. And they end up, they do the three terrible plays. And now it's like fourth and goal from the two. And Peterson actually was like, I can't do it again.
Starting point is 00:57:51 And he just kicks the field goal. Like he finally, even he, even he's seen enough on fourth down. Um, and the Colts were just dying to give away the game. And the Jags finally took it. They gave up an 85 yard touchdown to Thomas. Lawrence actually hit two long throws, but that team, even when it's their day and they should be winning by 15,
Starting point is 00:58:10 they're still pulling it out. They're staving off Joe Flacco at the end and they're barely winning this Indy team that was dying to just roll over for them. It's mystifying with them. First of all, I couldn't believe it. Trevor Lawrence has two interceptions this year. I would have thought it was seven.
Starting point is 00:58:27 I would have guessed 11. They didn't cover. The line was two and a half all week. It shot up to three and a half. So if you were, you know, and I was, and a lot of people bet that they won by three. Ridiculous. Why is it?
Starting point is 00:58:41 Defensively, they have the Josh Allen who changed his name. They have Javon Walker. They should be all over teams, right? And now you have Tank Bigsby in there. What the hell is that? Yeah, he looked amazing. 13 carries for 101 yards. Why aren't they winning games by 17? Especially games where he could have been fired, like you said, Doug Peterson.
Starting point is 00:59:02 This would have been 10 in a row if they lost this, and now he gets to go to London. Oh, even so. Yeah. No, I, no,
Starting point is 00:59:10 I think if they lose, I think that's it. Oh yeah. That, but he'll go to London now. Yeah. For his two games. Do you have any other picks?
Starting point is 00:59:16 Cause I have, uh, I just have another scheduling thing. WNBA schedule makers head to head with NFL Sunday, three weeks in a row. Uh, you could see ahead of time the schedule, guys,
Starting point is 00:59:27 girls, whoever. I don't know. I wanted to watch those games to be honest. We have money on them. WNBA had this amazing moment this season
Starting point is 00:59:38 to get as many eyeballs as possible on their most important games and stuck to the schedule that they did 15 years ago when it was counter-programming and completely blew it. And I actually wanted to watch those games and there's no way I'm watching anything other than football on a Sunday. No, you can't.
Starting point is 00:59:56 They have, you know, the days like this isn't rocket science, like Friday night's going to be your awesome night. The ratings have been great on that. Wednesday night is another awesome one. You're not going against anything. Tuesday night. And then try to figure out a Monday, Thursday, and maybe some Saturday. Just squeeze some windows in. But don't go...
Starting point is 01:00:15 You have a chance to blow this league out and make this really kind of a pretty mainstream league. It's not going to happen going against the NFL. Okay, so the question, just like it is with the stubborn Browns owners, is why? Why are they doing this? Who's telling them they should do this? It's TV money and it's ESPN because ESPN wants that programming on a Sunday. That's the reason.
Starting point is 01:00:39 They need some kind of programming? They need to go to ESPN. The NBA was in the same situation 40 years ago with the NBA Finals, which were being tape-delayed and yanked around. It really hurt the league. And CBS was like, whoa, what do you expect us to do?
Starting point is 01:00:53 Take off Dallas? We're not going to do that. We're going to take off Dukes of Hazzard? Fuck you. And then finally they figured it out. They started putting the games on primetime on CBS. And it was the Bird Magic Finals in 84 and the league took off
Starting point is 01:01:07 and the WNBA is blowing it. And they have to fix it. No doubt about it. These games should be on not against football or if you're going to do football, try to do it so that, alright, Monday Night Football starts at 8.15 Eastern Time. Then put a WNBA game on it. Put a playoff game on it at 6.
Starting point is 01:01:23 So you're getting all the casual fans who want to like the league. I don't, I don't, I haven't even looked. I can guarantee you game two or three of the NBA WNBA finals is next Sunday. I really wanted to watch those games today. I'm like, we have the links bet. I'm like into this. The Liberty beat the Aces. Like ridiculous.
Starting point is 01:01:45 Next year they had, I get it. They didn't know what was going to happen to the Liberty beat the Aces? Ridiculous. Next year, I get it. They didn't know what was going to happen to the league and the Caitlin boom and all that stuff. I get this year, you can make excuses, but next year, there's no excuses. They have to figure it out. I'm holding the feet to the fire. You got another one? I have the NFL concussion
Starting point is 01:01:59 spotters because it seemed like Josh Allen got knocked out. Just knocked out. They showed replays and his head hit the turf as hard as you can hit it. And it hit it so hard. He, it did the bounce back almost like a knocked out boxer when the boxer and they go,
Starting point is 01:02:16 man, that like the ref will just stop it. If the guy hit the head hits it twice, he goes out and then he comes back in and it's like, yeah, they think he's sprained his ankle. It was like, we have replay. Would it like Kristen Winsky, our friend who, who's been the big, like he was going nuts.
Starting point is 01:02:33 Right. It was like, just no question that something bad happened. And by the way, he sucked the rest of the game. So I was, I was saying the same thing. Like, Hey guys, there's cameras, there's angles. They're showing replays. They're showing everything. You're not going to get around this.
Starting point is 01:02:47 If this is protocol, you got to test this guy. You can't just throw smelling salts underneath them. And that's that. So, yeah, that was a bad one. How about this? We've done what? We've done like 13 incompetency groups. And we haven't mentioned referees once.
Starting point is 01:03:02 I'm not going to. I don't have any major complaints today, but that's pretty amazing for 2024. Yeah, the refs, I agree with you. The refs haven't been that bad. I'll do some quickies. The Bengals field goal holder, Joe House, on million-dollar picks, instead of doing Packers minus three,
Starting point is 01:03:20 pushing me to do Packers over 26 and a half. They're on 24 for two hours. He loves them. Yeah, I'm never doing that again. House is like, I just want to bet the spreads. To me, the over-unders are roulette. It's like, play roulette. It's been black eight times in a row.
Starting point is 01:03:36 Bet red, bet red. And I just feel like it's fucking random. I'm not doing that again. Well, the good thing is you can get lucky with a defensive touchdown. No, House could fuck off. Seattle's defense was the only team to give up 17 plus to New England. Got murdered last week by Detroit. Gave up 175 rushing yards to the Giants today.
Starting point is 01:03:57 Mike McDaniel, I just want to shout out Lombardi nicknamed him the Dish Jockey two weeks ago, and it's his best nickname since the Clapper. And the Dish Jockey, he was spinning today with uh huntley with the 15 points against new england who's missing 100 guys and then uh our guy raheem palmer i'm putting him in the incompetency draft texas during the browns game i'm done with this stupid Browns team It's like Why were you not done with the Browns? Like I get staying away from Washington
Starting point is 01:04:30 But you're really betting on Deshaun Watson? Come on Raheem That was my rat line I thought why the hell Washington hasn't punted in three weeks Why is that line only three? Browns haven't gone over their team total Forever
Starting point is 01:04:42 Jordan loves Pota Will Levis. He's in there. Gardner Minshew, the Raiders were dominating. It felt like the first 40 minutes of that Broncos game. They drive down. He throws a pick six and the team completely falls apart and ends up getting benched for Aiden O'Connell. He ate a booger too while on the bench.
Starting point is 01:05:02 I don't know if you saw it online. So that wasn't even his worst moment. You know, I saw that on TV and I was like, I hope that that sure looked like he was eating a booger. Yeah. So that's what it was? I mean, that's what they say. I mean, it's from the nose to the mouth. Yeah, I think
Starting point is 01:05:18 that's what he did. Maybe it was salt. And then DK Metcalf, Hench said he has eight fumbles in his career. I thought it was nine since 2019 or something. Yeah, for a receiver. That's spectacular. Horrible. I have a couple more.
Starting point is 01:05:33 You mentioned Levis. Well, Levis, I just throw him in there. He didn't even play this week, but how could he still be this bad? We saw these three guys, these three rookies, pick up the game in less than a month, and Levis is still throwing the sidearm into the teeth of the defense.
Starting point is 01:05:49 Who else do I want to say? Big favorites in the NFL. We covered it, but okay. You're done kicking our ass in Moneyline parlays. Can you just beat teams like the Panthers and Raiders and just give us a chance to win money?
Starting point is 01:06:04 Please. Please, out there. Can we just give us a chance to win money. Please, please out there. Can we just go back to some stability? Yeah. The stability of two favorites between six and a half and eight and a half points. And just, can I just tease them and win both sides, please? How about we'll ease into it. How about just that the two biggest favorites every week don't lose? How about just one of them loses?
Starting point is 01:06:25 Let's do that. Let's start there. Can you imagine? I remember I was doing these underdog parlays two years ago. None of them were hitting. If I was doing that this year, we would have been up a kajillion units. After decades of shaky hands caused by debilitating tremors, Sunnybrook was the only hospital in Canada who could provide Andy with something special. Three neurosurgeons, two scientists, one movement disorders coordinator, 58 answered questions, two focused ultrasound procedures, one specially developed helmet, thousands of high-intensity focused ultrasound waves, zero incisions. And that very same day, two steady hands.
Starting point is 01:07:05 From innovation to action, Sunnybrook is special. Learn more at sunnybrook.ca. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe.
Starting point is 01:07:38 It is time for Guest Alliance, week six. I think you're going to beat me because I guessed these 12 hours ago. I don't know. I don't know. I was off on a few. Thursday night,
Starting point is 01:07:51 a shockingly important game. 49ers at Seahawks. And if the Niners win, both of these teams will be three and three. And if the Niners lose, they'll be two and four
Starting point is 01:08:03 and the Seahawks will be four and two. Wow. Niners lose, they'll be 2-4 and the Seahawks will be 4-2. I think the 49ers are favored. I'm going to say 49ers by 2. All right. You edged me out. I was like, hey, let's start the week with a perfect 1.5, which
Starting point is 01:08:17 is my favorite. You said 2. It's a full 3. Oof. They didn't like what they saw with the Giants. Three on the road. Yep. The Seahawks are missing people. And I'm not ready to write them off yet because they can throw the ball.
Starting point is 01:08:33 They didn't do a great job of it today. But they had a bizarre game plan today. Their running backs only had seven carries. The Giants were just controlling the ball. It felt like the Seahawks kind of panicked when they got the ball. They were like, we can throw on these guys. And they just kind of got away just controlling the ball. And it felt like the Seahawks kind of panicked when they got the ball. They were like, we can throw in these guys. And they just kind of got away from who they are.
Starting point is 01:08:49 You mentioned the Metcalf fumble, but yeah, that offense should be way more in sync than it is. The one thing I'll say about this line is, don't the Niners, doesn't it seem like they need all the days to get healthy? Like Kittle doesn't practice on Wednesday or any of these guys. Thursday game might be tough for them, especially
Starting point is 01:09:05 going to Seattle also. I'd like to thank Juwan Jennings, who I've had on my bench for three weeks, and then finally I was like, you know what? You've earned it. I'm going to start today, buddy. 1.9 points for him. The Sunday mark. Oh, we got to go London game. We're back in London.
Starting point is 01:09:22 Is Rich Eisen still there? Does he just stay there? He doesn't leave. What happens? Jags Bears. This is something. Technically a Bears home game. Yep. This is something. Something
Starting point is 01:09:41 really, really horribly incompetent is going to happen in this game. And I have a lean on who it's going to be, but I think the Jags have to be favored. I'm going to say Jags minus one. Damn it. Oh, we tie. Okay, I had one also.
Starting point is 01:09:57 It's the Bears minus one and a half. Oh, Jesus. A lot of love for the Bears. So why do you think that is? They definitely have a little bit of a pass rush. There's no question. And they can throw the ball against bad defenses. I would say those would be the two things
Starting point is 01:10:18 I would like about them. And what's the, if any, you know, what kind of advantage do you give spread-wise to the Jaguars in London, even though it's not technically their home game? Half a point? Because they're there, they win there, they're very good there. Yeah, I would say half a point to a point. They're used to going there.
Starting point is 01:10:41 And so the Bears on a neutral field are that much better then. I think that line flips. It's a weird one. Sunday's marquee game. Kudos to us. We finally have a Ravens-Washington meaningful football game.
Starting point is 01:10:55 Surf War. I can't remember this ever happening. It's a good one. Is it? When were they even good at the same time? Like 2012 maybe?
Starting point is 01:11:04 RG3. Yeah, yeah yeah maybe like right around there it's in Baltimore I had the Ravens by 3.5 oh okay good I get this I said 4.5 it's 6.5 oh my god I'm way off way up there there's cheap touchdown potential
Starting point is 01:11:22 listen Washington's going to be able to throw on Baltimore just period that line's too high yeah they just don't respect them Jesus. There's cheap touchdown potential. Listen, Washington's going to be able to throw on Baltimore. Just period. That line's too high. Yeah, they just don't respect them like they do the Bears. They're only laying three to Cleveland. Washington, the ball doesn't touch the ground when you watch Washington. It's just like completions. They're all over the place, and they have speed.
Starting point is 01:11:39 I like it. Watchables. Saints-Bucks is a watchable kudos to the NFC South what a turnaround what a rehabilitation I'm excited
Starting point is 01:11:50 to watch this game I have I'm done I'm done with the South go ahead give me your number I didn't say it to bet on it
Starting point is 01:11:58 but I like watching it I had fun on Thursday night I enjoy watching the Falcons I feel like I've watched every Falcons game I have Saints minus three. We're going to split it.
Starting point is 01:12:08 I said two and it's two and a half. What's fun about it? The NFC South, I get it. Whoever should win doesn't win. We get it. Tampa should have won that game. If you don't finish the game in the last two minutes,
Starting point is 01:12:23 then that means you lost it. Yeah, yeah. I get it. It's fine. I'm just not interested anymore. Why couldn't I have just enjoyed my Mets and not watch that game? That set me on a tailspin, that Tampa loss.
Starting point is 01:12:38 Lions at Dallas. So I'm going to change my pick on this because I would have said Lions minus three, but since you won and look confident, I'm going to knock that down by a half point and say Lions favored by two and a half in Dallas. Good by you. I said Dallas minus one.
Starting point is 01:12:57 I'm still a delusional, hopeful fan here, but it is Detroit by three. You get that. My original guess was the right guess. Yep. And that's not a little high. That's not a little bit high. I know they're going to throw on us. I know. You had a lot of guys I've never heard of
Starting point is 01:13:15 on defense. Yeah, and don't expect them to make a name for themselves. They played well against Pittsburgh. This is a little different than playing Justin Fields. Well, you remember in Dallas last year, these two played, right? I think they played well against Pittsburgh. This is a little different than playing Justin Fields. Well, you remember in Dallas last year, these two played, right? I think it was a Saturday night, and there was a controversial call against the Lions that I'm still upset about.
Starting point is 01:13:34 I still don't think they got that right. Very, very upsetting. Fairly watchable. Eagles home for the Browns. And I just don't see how the Browns can't be in the Vegas zone now every time. So I'm going to say Eagles by four and a half over the Browns. I went high. I went seven.
Starting point is 01:13:54 It's eight and a half. Eight and a half. Oh, Lord. Oh, that's absurd. I don't know for this. Should the Eagles be favored by eight and a half over anybody? Well, they definitely have the rest advantage from the bye. And, you know, all right.
Starting point is 01:14:12 How many points did the Browns score? 13? I don't think the Eagles should be favored by that much over any team. What if the Browns score? We were wondering if their coach was going to get fired over the bye. Now they're 8.5 point favorites. That seems weird. 13, 16, 15, 18, 17.
Starting point is 01:14:33 So if the Eagles score 22, the Blackjack Browns. Blackjack Browns, 17th day. Gross. That's it. Packers are home for the Cardinals. Weird Packers game today.
Starting point is 01:14:49 They have this tight end that I picked up in all my leagues, and he was a delight today. He's turned into Rob Gronkowski. Crap. But Dubs didn't play. Watson's hurt. Go figure. So they're down to basically the two receivers and Kraft,
Starting point is 01:15:04 but it didn't really matter against the Lions. I think you said pull the Levis, right? You don't usually win a game like that when you give up a pick six. It's like a 99% chance. Oh, I have
Starting point is 01:15:19 a baseball playoff nitpick. They put the win probability at the top now. Yeah. Yeah. Who is that for? Like morons? I don't know.
Starting point is 01:15:32 Who's that for? Like, haven't, haven't we paid enough homage to the nerds that we now have to have win probability? It's like, Oh, the Dodgers are up eight,
Starting point is 01:15:42 nothing in the ninth. Their win probability is 99%. It's like, oh, is it? It's really likely they're going to win? The Mets came back. They were only 10% win probability. It's like, do we need win probability to describe a comeback? We need a stat to say
Starting point is 01:15:58 that something was awesome? Who started this? A couple bad things about it. It's really stupid. Yes. There's so many other stats I'd rather see than win probability. It was down things about it. Just fucking watch the game. It's really stupid. Yes, there's so many other stats I'd rather see than win probability. Oh, it was down and then it was up. They were there at 3%, then it was 70%. Who cares? Also, it can't be great
Starting point is 01:16:13 for viewership. Like, if you're telling the viewer, hey, the Phillies have a 93% chance of winning, the viewer might be like, oh, alright, I'm gonna go put on the Liberty and Ace it. Why do I have to watch? So it's not psychologically the best idea. Baseball doesn't want their fans to have any sort of natural reaction to watching.
Starting point is 01:16:32 It just has to, you just have to, it's all AI now. Yeah, it's all AI. It's like, oh, I really wish the Phillies could come back here, but the win probability says we only have a 2% chance. Yep, they're done. ESPN loves that more than anything. I hate it. I don't like it either.
Starting point is 01:16:48 I don't get it. They have it in like the second inning. It's like, ah, 75% chance to win. So there's 22 more outs. I don't even believe it, honestly. A million things can happen. I don't even, and in the NBA, I hate it the most because like we see someone overcome a 17-point deficit
Starting point is 01:17:03 three times a week in the NBA, right? Yeah. Somebody's down 17. They hit five threes. How are you making that 95%? Like stupid. Dumbass. The worst.
Starting point is 01:17:13 I hate when probability. You just don't like it because you don't understand it. You're an old man. I understand. I understand. You're an old, old man. Yeah. Let's just, how about this?
Starting point is 01:17:23 I won't, I won't watch the game. Just, just text me what the win probability is I'll get super excited like oh they're up to 88% I need to watch the game anyone tells me a win probability
Starting point is 01:17:33 at a party I smack them in the face and I move on to the next guest that's a great point when have you ever had a conversation with anyone
Starting point is 01:17:40 in a social setting where it's like hey did you guys see the Colts win probability it's like 78% right now it's like, hey, did you guys see the Colts win probability? It's like 78% right now. It's like, what? I thought it would have been
Starting point is 01:17:48 like 67. Is that just 78? Hold on, I'm going to tell Bobby. Everybody's going to do this to you now. Hey, the Colts are 78% win probability now.
Starting point is 01:17:57 I thought it was going to be like 65. What the fuck are we doing? Zoe's boyfriend's going to hit you with this tomorrow. Who is? Zoe's boyfriend's going to do this to you now tomorrow. Now everybody's going to hit you with this tomorrow. Who is? Zoe's boyfriend is going to do this to you now tomorrow. Now everybody's going to hit you with win probabilities.
Starting point is 01:18:10 Bill Simmons eviscerates win probability. It's over. What's my win probability? He's old. He's stupid. You know what? We're four. All right, you have four. I have four.
Starting point is 01:18:24 We haven't guessed this one yet. Nephew Kyle, we want win probabilities after every pick. You know what? We're four. All right. You have four. I have four. We haven't guessed this one yet. Nephew Kyle, we want win probabilities after every pick. You understand? From now on. My win probability is 53% right now. Guess the line. Because I could give up if it gets to 75. I could walk away.
Starting point is 01:18:39 There was one of the Mets games. It was like 2-0 in the seventh. And the other team had like an 89% win probability. It was like, nobody trusts a single reliever on any baseball team. How do you have an 80% win probability? You're a 2-1 lead. I want to see a 1-0 in the third inning.
Starting point is 01:18:56 That's when you really want to see it. They did it after that incredible Alonzo homer. It's like, oh, what was the win probability when he hit that? It's like, oh, it was 96%. It's like, cool, can I also just enjoy the Pete Alonso homer? Because that was really cool. Do I need a stat? Yeah, you got a number
Starting point is 01:19:11 covering his face as he's rounding the bases. I like stats. I'm into stats, but the win probability is too far. Fucking send it packing. Packers, home for the cards. I said Packers by four. Oh, shit. You get it. I said five and a half and it's four and a half.
Starting point is 01:19:30 Ooh, my wind probability is up to 56%. It really might be. Chargers at the Broncos. I don't know what, I don't know who's going to be playing for the Chargers. They've been on a bye week and they've had a bunch of stat, a bunch of starters out. I hit this exactly. Yep. for the Chargers. They've been on a bye week and they've had a bunch of starters out. I hit this exactly. Broncos are not bad. This feels like a one and a half-er.
Starting point is 01:19:54 Yeah, I said two and a half. It's two and a half. Chargers favored, right? That's what you had. I had Chargers one and a half. Yeah. Yeah, it's Chargers two and a half. Yep.
Starting point is 01:20:04 Is Denver poor man's half. Yeah. Yeah. It's two and a half. Yep. Is Denver poor man's Pittsburgh? I said to our buddy Gus, huge Broncos fan. I was like, the fucking Broncos are going to be nine and six after week 16. And we're all going to be like, how did this happen? How are they nine and
Starting point is 01:20:22 six? Let's go through their wins. And each win's terrible. Did he agree? I mean, through their wins. And each win's terrible. Did he agree? I mean, I wonder how Broncos fans feel about it. I think they're like, shh. Yeah. Don't tell anyone. Yeah, very weird.
Starting point is 01:20:38 I mean, the defense is better than I anticipated. I mean, Peyton's got them going in. Boehner's got better, too. I don't know. Who do you think has the best defense right now? Well, the Steelers had allowed like eight points a game before tonight. Well, I don't think they have the best. I don't know who it is.
Starting point is 01:20:53 No? I don't think they're the best defense anymore. Patriots? Definitely not. Let's keep going. Steelers. Wait, who is it? You buried the lead. I don't think there's a best defense.
Starting point is 01:21:07 Oh, there's not a best defense. I think it's Kansas City, actually. Yeah. If I had to trust the defense to make a stop in the fourth quarter and just get the offense back on the field, I'd pick KC. Yep.
Starting point is 01:21:20 Steelers at Las Vegas, and I'm going to say Steelers by three. Yeah, we both got this. It's exactly three. Poop Fecta, Texans at the Pats. Texans, I mean, they have to be at least six, and I'm going to say six and a half over the Pats. Yeah, you got it.
Starting point is 01:21:44 I went light on it. I said five and a half.5 over the Pats. Yeah, you got it. I went light on it. I said 5.5. It is a full 7. That pass rush is going to be a big problem. This is not a game to start Drake May. Well, you know what's a big problem? You're going to win because favorites of 7 or more
Starting point is 01:21:58 haven't won in like 13 years or something. So congratulations on the W. They're not going to win. The Patriots' win probability went up to 80% once they set the line at seven. It seems impossible. Colts at Titans. I'm going to say Colts by one and a half.
Starting point is 01:22:21 Come on. I said two. It is one and a half. I don. I said two. It is one and a half. I don't like the way you're reading it. Like you are reading. You're actually reading it off. I can't see anymore because it's 2.19 in the morning. My eyesight's blurry.
Starting point is 01:22:36 I'm going to make the letters bigger. I need to hit all three to tie you and I'm going to definitely get one wrong. Colt Titan seems like the kind of game Raheem is going to bet as his wisest pick on the Sunday Ringer pregame show. The Souths are really tough. This is the week for Will Levis.
Starting point is 01:22:52 Raheem can't quit shitty teams. Yeah. Falcons at Carolina. Speaking of shitty teams. So I don't think the Falcons, I mean, I don't think the Panthers can be getting less than four against any 500 and up team. So I'm going to say Falcons by four in Carolina. That's a good way to look at it. I said three and a half.
Starting point is 01:23:12 So, of course, you get it. It's five and a half. Oh, I lose again. Yeah, you know, I am done. Unlike Raheem, I'm done like singing songs about bad teams. Like all week, I'm like the Red Rifle teams. All week, I'm like, the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton, 60 points in two games. This is a
Starting point is 01:23:30 bad team. If I have to circle it in the pool and get lucky, I'm not going to brag because it is just luck. You know what I was looking at today because I was in Boston going through the FanDuel and I had a bunch of time until the game started.
Starting point is 01:23:46 The really bad teams, so the three worst teams are Carolina and New England and maybe Miami without a quarterback. And, like, the Bears were three and a half over Carolina. The Pats were, like, Miami was two and a half point favorite. But you figure law of averages, if you're, like, a two and 15 or a three-14 team. Oh boy, my computer's going to run out of battery soon. Uh-oh.
Starting point is 01:24:11 Speed this up. Lose probability is up to 19%. You're good. But you do the minus 13.5 line on the favorite or the minus 17 and a half. You just go for a blowout. Yeah. But the shitty teams get blown out all the time. And you get like, they're like five to one, seven to one that there's going to be a blowout. Yep.
Starting point is 01:24:34 So I was thinking that so that the Bears hit and the Miami didn't. But yeah. The minus nine and a half. Yeah. What was the Bears line? I forget. You have no juice in your computer. Yeah. What was the adjusted? I I forget. You have no juice in your computer. What was the adjusted?
Starting point is 01:24:47 I was like, you probably got 5-1. No, the adjusted was probably like 4-1, 13.5, something like that. Sunday night, Bengals at Giants. I'm going to say Bengals 3.5. Yeah, we both had 3.5. Boy, this was shaping up as a
Starting point is 01:25:03 bad... This is all of a sudden a good game now. That is a good game. That's a really dangerous game for the Bengals, especially if they have neighbors back for the Giants. Yeah. With the receivers we saw today, I feel like they could throw the ball. I love calling the Bengals.
Starting point is 01:25:17 You know that, Bill. You know it. Oh, my God. This is the league neighbors. Is he for real, Mike? Is he for real? Just as. I might do the icky shuffle right here in this booth.
Starting point is 01:25:29 I don't know. The probability of my pants right now is like 85%. Bills at Jets. I am going to say Bills minus three we split it it's two and a half I said two
Starting point is 01:25:50 congratulations another win at 2.30 a.m. for you I'll tell you what that's a fascinating Aaron Rodgers game
Starting point is 01:25:58 yeah is everyone going to be back on the Aaron Rodgers train after they pull this out and something stupid happens we're going to be talking all week win probability is very high that people will back on the Aaron Rodgers train after they pull this out? People are going to be talking all week. The win probability is very high that people will be talking about Aaron Rodgers this week. What's your Mets state of mind before we do Parent Corner?
Starting point is 01:26:15 You know, I mean, you're used to rooting for October baseball, and it's freaking brutal, right? And you just want breathing room, right? So when you're up 1-0, you got another night that you don't have to agonize. Of course, the game's going to suck, but two, splitting Philly is all we could have asked for.
Starting point is 01:26:34 I feel like we're in good shape. It's been a lot of fun. And it dovetails into my paracord or so. It's an emotional rollercoaster. There's no way to properly explain it or convey it to people who don't care. So it's an emotional roller coaster. There's no way to properly explain it or convey it to people who don't care. And it completely submarines your entire month for as long as the team's in there. There's nothing else that really matters. You can't really function.
Starting point is 01:26:56 Every game is a heart attack. Um, it's, it's, although I guess the games are shorter than during the Red Sox heyday. So maybe that part is a bonus, but, uh, yeah, it's just debilitating. There's no, there's no other way to,
Starting point is 01:27:09 there's no other verb. It's a weird TV thing too, because the directors are, play a huge role in the emotion of it. Like, yeah, just the close-ups of the fans. Cut to the fans or,
Starting point is 01:27:20 you know, we're not there yet in October. Well, pitchers blowing on their hands and you see the smoke and everything. Everything is so nuts. Yeah, I don't wish it on anyone. What do you got for parent corner? All right. So, I mean, this parent corner would
Starting point is 01:27:34 have been a little more effective before the filthies tied up the series 1-1. But Thursday night, when Alonzo hit that home run and it barely went over the fence, but only he knew it was out opposite field. And it was a top two med home runs in terms of excitement and emotion. I put like Piazza's post 9-11 home run up there, just probably still first, but hits it. It just
Starting point is 01:27:56 clears the wall. And my sons and I were jumping up and down like lunatics. And we'd FaceTime Archie at college and I'm running around the living room like the ultimate warrior. And I stepped on the dog a couple of times. It was crazy. And I was thinking, I'm never going to forget this. And I don't think the kids will forget it either. And then I was thinking, how many moments do I have with them that they'll never forget? Oh, 20. Like 20, like big moments where you found not like, Hey, that was fun when we went to, uh, the grand Canyon when I was 13, like not that, but when she leaked all over us, we were like high-fiving and stepping on dogs. No, but I
Starting point is 01:28:40 think there's about 15 to 20 that they'll remember with their dad because it's immediate, right? There are nice moments that come, you know, like when, I don't know, if mom comes home and announces she got a promotion in American Express, that's nice. Dad says he has Disney tickets. That's nice. But sports wins are quick. They're immediate. And in this case, surprising and so emotional.
Starting point is 01:29:03 And I just want to thank sports. Had the Cowboys lost tonight, I would say sports could go to hell. But I think it's just so impactful and puts together these moments that I wouldn't have been able to create otherwise with my kids. The dog could have done without it. But thank you, sports. That's good. Thank you. You know, I agree. I knew I couldn't articulate it well. It's certainly a huge part of me and my dad over the years. I got a bunch of columns out of it, and it was a big part of my perspective on stuff. So I totally get it, and you're right.
Starting point is 01:29:36 You have a couple of those, and you remember where you were. You remember who you were with, where you were sitting. Yeah. Nothing really like it. Even music, if you share a musical taste with your kids and even if you take them to a concert,
Starting point is 01:29:48 the event is big, but there's not one, here's the announcement, here's the big moment. You know what I mean? Yeah. Just can't compare it to anything. That's a great call.
Starting point is 01:29:59 I have a slightly similar one because I haven't been able to really put my son in parent corner because all of the parent corners, I'm really not allowed to put in the parent corner at this point now that he's driving and just the things that are happening every week I just can't there's the unedited parent corner that would be amazing dark web parent corner um sadly we can't tell any of those stories but um so you know I'm in Boston and we're doing this live show in New York city
Starting point is 01:30:25 tomorrow, but I was in Boston for the UFC thing. And we both love Pereira, the, the, uh, UFC guy. He's I've never really had a completely favorite UFC guy, but Ben also loves him and we just love him. I bet on him every time I put, I put him with like every football team. And, uh, and he was, he was FaceTiming me after every round. And this was like, he's fighting Roundtree who, you know, has this, he's got this Joe Frazier no neck. Did you see it? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:30:55 He's got this no neck kind of Joe Frazier left, right, left. Yep. And just as immediately, and I knew it from the YouTube clips. I knew I was a little worried for Pereira for this one. But then that first couple rounds, and it's just like, fuck, he's got to like figure this dude out. And all the fighters I've ever liked in my life, they just, you know, Hopkins was great at this. Chavez was great at this. Chavez was great at this. Like they just, the, the, the fight goes along and they just kind of, they're just picking little clues and then they're closing the distance and figuring out. So you could see in the third round, he started to figure the guy out and then he just
Starting point is 01:31:34 demolished him. And we were FaceTiming after, and it was like, I think this is the first thing we've had together. Cause he doesn't, you know, he's like, whatever he, he likes the team sports, but doesn't really care. He just bounces around. But Pereira is kind of our guy. So now we're just all the way in. So he beat Roundtree. That's great. And I just think he's
Starting point is 01:31:56 my first real favorite UFC guy. I've liked other guys, but not like this. I thought you were going to say he was your son, Pereira. You did a test or something. No, he was great. And did you think, I thought he was losing two rounds to one, actually. I don't know
Starting point is 01:32:11 what you and Ben, did you think that would have evened it up? We thought he lost the first two rounds. Yeah, and it's like, you never know with UFC. They had a couple of the fights before were a little dicey. One of the women's fights was really bizarre. And Aldo won. We thought he won. But were a little dicey. One of the women's fights was really bizarre. Although we thought he won.
Starting point is 01:32:29 But this one was like, shit. He's got to win the last three. But you could see the other guy was wearing down a little bit. that's the thing. One of the things with Pereira is he always seems the same. He comes out. He just stares the dude down, right? His eyes, he's like Michael Myers. Like he's
Starting point is 01:32:49 completely still. It's like, we're doing Silence of the Lambs tomorrow and I was researching it and Hopkins was saying about how he played Lecter. He thought it'd be really scary if he was just still. He's like, still people are the scariest. So if you watch Silence of the Lambs, like she comes around and she sees him in the cage and he's just standing there and he's like still people are the scariest so if you watch sounds of lambs like she comes around she sees him in the cage and he's just standing there and he's not moving some of the best horror movie villains are like like michael myers was like that too where he's just like in the doorway like and prayer it's like he's like that as a ufc fighter he just stares you down and looks at you and it's like the most evil looking fucking... Who was the guy in season two?
Starting point is 01:33:25 Richie Aprile? Richie Aprile, yeah. He had that scary look on his face. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, he was good with that. But then you watch the fights and he's in the same shape the entire fight and he just figures it out.
Starting point is 01:33:37 You could see in the third round, he's like, I'm going to move a little closer. Anyway, it was really fun to share. Do you think if you... I mean, this doesn't apply to anyone probably listening, but if you don't like sports and you want your kid to think you're cool, I would say
Starting point is 01:33:52 take up watching UFC. Yeah. Well, especially the under 20 generation. Yeah. Oh, this ties into the other part of my parent corner. You can start clubs at my son's high school and he started a UFC club. Oh, wow. And the other part of my parent corner. You can start clubs at my son's high school, and he started a UFC club. Oh, wow.
Starting point is 01:34:07 And 80 people signed up. Really? What's involved? He just runs it. They have like a two-hour, like they talk about UFC. But it's not physical, right? No, no, no. They're not fighting.
Starting point is 01:34:22 It's like a fan club. They'll be fighting. He'll change it. He'll get them to fight. That's true. it's just yeah no no no they're not fighting they're just it's like a fan club but yeah UFC is like massive he'll change it he'll get them to fight that's true no one better probably turn in a fight club in the basement of the school
Starting point is 01:34:31 but yeah UFC Pereira awesome I don't do the the real pronunciation where they say like I can't do it
Starting point is 01:34:40 I'm just my speech impediment I can't you can't say it can you Pereira's fine no the can't say it, can you? Pereira's fine. No, the win percentage of me saying that right is about 12. Win probability? No, I'm going to try.
Starting point is 01:34:51 Yeah, win probability. All right. That's parent corner. What do you have to promote? Anything? Against all odds, we go over pro and college football. There's going to be a little hockey talk this week. Hockey starts and then basketball, as you know.
Starting point is 01:35:06 Through the ringer with Tate on Wednesday. Cousin Sal's winning weekend every Friday. Ringer pregame show on YouTube TV and FanDuel TV. No Mets games for you. What's that? No Mets Phillies games for you. What do you mean? Going there? No,
Starting point is 01:35:22 I don't know. I'm hoping well, if they play the Dodgers or Padres, I don't want to get ahead of myself. I'll be going to those games out here. But, yeah, it's just touch. Well, if they win, they're playing the Dodgers or the Padres. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I'll be hitting those.
Starting point is 01:35:35 Oh, I'm giving away a brand new 50-inch TV. Hit me up at TheCousinSal on Twitter and post a picture of your crappy TV setup, and the worst one wins. And this is coming out of my thing and that's it. What? What? I did a contest. We talked about
Starting point is 01:35:55 this. I want people who have bad TV setups. But how shitty does the TV have to be? So just whatever the picture that you decide looks the shittiest? If you want to be in on send pictures. So just whatever the picture that you decide looks the shittiest. If you want to, if you want to be in on it, you could,
Starting point is 01:36:07 you could decide to. Yeah. I've already got like 25 entries. There you go. Cuz, it is 2.33 in the morning. I can't believe
Starting point is 01:36:16 we're still doing a podcast. East Coast time. It's fine. Your time. As always, good job by you. Good job by you. Better job by you,
Starting point is 01:36:23 Billy. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Cousin Sal. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti as well. Don't forget about Poltergeist on the Rewatchables on Monday night. Don't forget about the Ringer Movies YouTube channel. Don't forget about the Bill Simmons YouTube channel.
Starting point is 01:36:40 So, bad news. I'm not going to have a podcast for you on Tuesday. I am coming back on Thursday night. That's going to be the next podcast. So I will see you then. Enjoy the week. I don't have feelings within. On the wayside, I'm a person never lost. I don't have feelings within.
Starting point is 01:37:17 Must be 21 plus and president in select states. For Kansas, an affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and president in D.C. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org
Starting point is 01:37:38 or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.