The Bill Simmons Podcast - The NBA’s Big Shift, Best NFL Future Bets and Mega-Million-Dollar Picks With Howard Beck, Michael Pina, Benjamin Solak, and Raheem Palmer

Episode Date: November 10, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Howard Beck and Michael Pina to discuss some NBA big-picture story lines (2:08), before Bill talks to Benjamin Solak about the end of the Belichick era in New England (42:01), and some of their favorite NFL future bets (52:00). Then, Bill is joined by Raheem Palmer to discuss NFL Week 10 games before making the Million-Dollar Picks for Week 10 (1:29:27). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Howard Beck, Michael Pina, Ben Solak, and Raheem Palmer Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, football, basketball, almost two hours. Man, this one's loaded. Next. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking,

I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way. If you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like to catch your pass, same game parlays, highest scoring game across the Sunday slate, offensive TDs, the next drive. They have so much stuff, it's crazy. The app is safe and secure and easy to use. And when you win, you'll get paid instantly. Plus, look out for FanDuel Squares this season. Here's what you have to do. Visit fanduel.com.bs to download America's number one sportsbook. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and

listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste.

Picture this. It's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious.

You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like.

90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Hope you checked out the rewatchables we did on Monday. We covered Robin Hood,

Prince of Thieves as the first installment of, wait, that movie made how much money? Theme week that we're doing. I always have to raise my voice when I do that part. We have an unbelievable one coming on Monday.

It's an older movie, but, you know, CR has been doing Wayne Jenkins on the pod for a while and there might be a new character to rival Wayne Jenkins. We'll see. It was early. It was test-driven on this podcast to big success. We'll find out how it goes long-term, but very excited about this one. It was a really fun one. So there you go. Hey, audio books are on Spotify now, especially if you're in America. And if you're a Spotify premium customer, man, you get like, it's like over 200,000 books. The cool thing is it's 15 hours a month that you get. So if you try out a book and you don't like it, just move to the next book.

You can use up 20 minutes of your 15 hours. I think it's one of the best things the company's done since we've been a part of it. So check out audiobooks. They are now available on Spotify. Coming up on this podcast, I'm going to talk to Howard Beck and Michael Pina. Three big things we've noticed from the first two and a half weeks of the NBA season. And then our guy Benjamin Solak is going to come on and talk about best future bets going forward for the NFL season. Last but not least, Raheem Palmer came on to join me for million dollar picks. This is the week. This is my favorite gambling week of the season that we've had in NFL. So we're going to talk about that, make some picks. It's all next. First, our friends from ProJab.

All right. We're taping this. It's middle of the afternoon before the two Thursday night games. So if anything crazy happens, don't blame us. Howard Beck is here. Michael Peen is here from The Ringer. We are going to talk about one big thing that each of us has noticed about the first two plus weeks of the season. Howard, I'll start with you.

We don't know what the other person's big thing is. We're just going to throw them out. Howard, throw it out at us and let's talk about it. This was the hardest part of the assignment, was trying to anticipate, not overlapping. In the text, you said big picture, and my brain immediately goes to the biggest of big pictures, but it also coincided with a little bit of chatter on Twitter today. So it's appropriate. I have been fascinated by, written about, and talked ad nauseum about in recent years, whether the era of the super team and then partially as attached to that, dynasties are just over. And it's way too early in the season to determine anything about anything, in my view. But it's interesting where the trends are going.

It was highlighted today by this, um, series of tweets. Kyle Newbeck does a great job of covering the Sixers. Wondering out loud. If, if the way the team is defending, I wonder he's,

this is him tweeting. I wonder if the Sixers will be better served looking for a well-fitting role player to at the deadline rather than hunting for a star. And of course we all know Daryl's always star hunting. Matt Moore, uh, comes back with, they're going to trade for another another start it's going to fuck things up and it'll be unfortunate we're in a quote you need to play team basketball era right now i thought that was interesting to which seth part now our friend the analytics expert uh writing at the athletic says in general

i think we over index on the one team that happens to have won the most recent title as the example of, quote, how you have to play. But I agree with Matt that the last five to eight years of playoff basketball have illustrated the shortcomings of a stars and scrubs approach, which led me back to my general view or assessment of the last five to eight years in general anyway, which is things are different. Things are different. And look at the two super teams that are attempting it right now the Clippers are trying it too early to you know judge it Harden's played only a couple games it's not too early it's late it's late enough to judge it you were you were down on the Harden Clippers before they even had Harden you were like killing them even the concept they

might not make the playoffs anyway go ahead and why and then we have the Suns no Suns have been banged up we still don't have proof of concept because there hasn't been enough time yet of their three on the floor. But part of this is the limitations of doing this exercise now anyway in a time and an era where it's so hard to fill out the rest of your roster. So you don't have any room for error because you have all maxes and minimums. You are so top heavy. And so the Suns are top heavy and injuries are undermining them right now. Maybe it'll work out. The Clippers are super top heavy. And I will disagree with you, Bill, in the sense that I think there's

still a possibility of things working out. I'm not bullish on the Clippers at all. I don't believe in what they're doing, but there's still a possibility of it. Those are the only two teams that are even trying it. And I should just say, a super team to me is at least three stars. It's three top 20 to 25 guys. It's not two, it's not LeBron and AD. And we haven't had a super team win at all since 2018 with the Warriors. Otherwise it's like Kawhi and an ensemble, LeBron and Anthony Davis in an ensemble, Giannis ensemble, Steph ensemble, Jokic ensemble. And I think that that's two things. One, super teams may not be viable now, especially because of the new CBA. And two, I think that maybe, I don't want to say the end of anything, but for now, I think that really endangers the

idea of a dynasty. And I know, Bill, you've thrown out the idea that the Nuggets could become that because they're young, they're under contract, all this. But shit happens. And we're already seeing it. Jamal Murray's got a hamstring that's going to knock him out the rest of the month. And I'm not saying that dooms their season, but stuff always happens. And it's just hard to sustain. So anyway, that's, that's been on my mind. And the series of tweets today just kind of like crystallized this idea that maybe this is just where we are for a while. Man, that was almost like a Ted up. I think it's really interesting.

The question here is about the CBA and its impact on how you can build your team, right? And how you construct your roster in terms of how many superstars, how many max contracts you can afford. And going forward, that's basically going to be impossible so um i think that there's a difference between also like super team and an ability to build a dynasty because like i do think that the denver nuggets could be a dynasty calvin booth has spoken publicly about not necessarily angling to win the title this year but trying to win three in the next five or two in the next four, whatever it is. So from that perspective, it is really interesting. I mean, teams are just under extreme financial pressure, I think, going forward with the second apron. And we'll see what happens with the Phoenix Suns. As you said, they're top heavy. We'll see what happens with the Clippers.

I'm slightly more bullish on the Clippers than I think anyone who covers the NBA right now. Apologies, Bill. It's just a terrible take, but keep going. But yeah, you kind of see also because of the CBA teams sort of going all in right now that wouldn't otherwise. Like the Celtics are a really good example with the trade for Chris Tapps-Porzingis and paying him with the extension. Drew Holiday, they trade for him. He's an unrestricted free agent, but they're probably going to extend him.

And obviously they give Jalen Brown the biggest contract in NBA history. So what is the shelf life of that team and that core? I would assume that it's like a two, three-year max window, probably not even that long. So that aspect now that I think that helps with this strategy. I was thinking about it last night because the Celtics lose that game to Philly. And Philly's just, you know, you could credit Nick Nurse for some of this, but I really do feel like whatever Harden was doing to that team from a flow standpoint and just his moodiness and just never knowing what you're going to get from him game to game

and the fact that he doesn't play defense and just little things that seem to matter in basketball. Removing that and just replacing him with Rocco and Nick Batum, who are whatever, they're ninth man, 10th man, but they're two long guys, right? They're two guys you can throw at Tatum and Brown. And then most of the hardened shots go to Maxie and some go to Tobias Harris and Oubre gets some. And there's this distribution of the assets that the team just made way more sense to watch. And I wonder this whole, what Howard was talking about of this Hollywood movie way of doing stuff where it's like, just get your three stars and then just get a bunch of that guys

and you got a movie. I don't know if that works now. I think the league's too deep. You watch Minnesota, they're bringing Nas Reed off the bench. That guy, Nas Reed would have been a top three guy for a team 15 years ago and he's like their seventh guy.

So depth seems super important and I would rather have the Philly situation of basically two potential all stars and then depth versus three, what Phoenix is in with the three guys and then cross your fingers that they can play. But meanwhile, poor Matt Ishbia,

the coward he's, he's all in on the old model, but I think he's probably late on it. Right. He's not only late on it, but it was like, it's even the Durant deal. Right.

That was the more defensible or, or the more obvious of the two plays. Right. Like they didn't exactly give up anything or a lot to get feel, but like the more obvious one was if you can get Kevin Durant, you do it. But the amount of assets they gave up, like they've mortgaged their entire future.

We thought it was catastrophic for the Brooklyn nets when they sent all this stuff to the Celtics for Garnett and Pierce. What the Suns have done to mortgage their future and the Clippers, we have two teams now that are objectively in worse shape in terms of future assets than the Nets were at the time of that infamous deal. And listen, there's still upside potentially for these two current teams. But if they both crash and burn, the consequences could be much more catastrophic than what the Nets were dealing with

in the aftermath of that one. By the way, you mentioned the Timberwolves. They kind of meet my definition of three stars. If Anthony Edwards is going to be a star this year, and if we consider Gobert is still a star and cat, I mean, they're Howard. We don't.

I don't know if we consider Townsend star either, but that that's a team that has like the depth across the board. I mean, I would argue what McDaniels did against Boston the other night. I would probably put him a higher on the power rankings. I was, I've never seen anybody guard Tatum like that before. Not even Miami.

Peak Miami guarded him like that. So we're kind of... I don't want to spoil my big picture subject here, but we're kind of stepping on it right now. Should I just give it up? Yeah, just go. Just dive into it. Okay, so I previewed this season with a column that had 20

increasingly bold predictions, and one of them was Minnesota finishing with a top three record in the Western Conference. They look really good right now. Number four in net rating, five and two. I still think that it's possible they finish top three in the Western Conference, but I

wanted to take this one step further and ask you guys if we should consider them a bona fide title contender right now. I'm there. I did this on Tuesday in the PowerPo. I had them fifth. And I think it's, I put it in pen, not pencil. I'm there with them from a size defense standpoint

and whatever is going to happen with Edwards over the last six, seven months. I mean, there's contenders and then there's like, are these guys a finals favorite? And I just feel like Denver is levitating above everybody else. The Celtics, as soon as they fix two bench spots

are probably the two. But I think Minnesota is right there underneath, right? With gold, I had them with Golden State and Philly. Those were the five. And then we'll see who else joins. But to me, Minnesota, I think they're there. What do you think, Howard? Well, look, positive sign that the chemistry seems sound-ish. It's early. Positive that Gobert is now talking about like, yeah, this is the best I've felt forever physically. Back concerns and whatever that were, I guess, hampering him last year.

That matters because it felt like Gobert was maybe starting to trend, even before he left Utah, even before the trade, it seemed like he was maybe trending downward as that supreme, the walking top 10 defense is what we refer to him as, right? You plug him into any team, they're a top 10 defense just by Gobert being there. And it seemed like maybe that was over based on age, mileage, wear and tear. But if he can do that again in this context, and they can have it figured out between him and Cat, Nas Reed, plug and play with those guys. Don't forget about the best player in the league, Nas Reed plug and play with those guys Don't forget about the best player in the league Nas Reed Best player in the league Nas Reed Right just a percentage point ahead of The per 100 king Nas Reed

He threw Was it last night the pass he threw He had this incredible pass the other day too He was in transition dribbling up the court And then like he's Yeah it was the lob to Anthony Edwards, right? Yeah. They do.

They have a really interesting mix of high-end talent and depth, which is the really, really tough thing to do right now. Because eventually your high-end talent makes too much money for you to have any depth whatsoever. Which, again, this is the argument against dynasties. Eventually, whether it's the Nuggets, whether it's like way too early to talk about the thunder but the thunder of all this cool young talent eventually you have to pay guys when you have to start paying guys you have to start losing guys um anyway timberwolves contender right now i i'm gonna pump the brakes i'm just gonna say like like we have there were too many warning signs with this team even before cat went down and cat's entire career is one big flashing warning sign uh so i i feel like the bar for them to prove to us that they

are legitimate should be higher based on their own track record and and and frankly cat's track record as their centerpiece for so many years and i know ant edwards is essentially the centerpiece for so many years. And I know Ant Edwards is essentially the centerpiece now, but Cat looms large in this picture and you can't just wave him away. And you can't wave his, his seven, eight years away. I would say just the, the recipe here is best defense in the NBA, which they are. And I think is totally sustainable throughout this season because of how Gobert has played. He's averaging over 13 rebounds a game. The field goal percentage at the rim when he's the closest defender is just microscopic. He looks vintage.

He looks like he was when he was winning Defensive Player of the Year awards. Him, and then just having a guard who looks like, I don't know if this is hyperbolic, but he looks like young Dwayne Wade with a three-point shot right now.

That's what Anthony Edwards is. He's 28-5, 50-40, 85 shooting splits. I think most of that is pretty sustainable throughout a regular season for him. And it's more than the numbers, though. It's just how he's processing defenses. The game is very... It's much slower this year you can already tell than it was for him in his first few seasons where you know i know his long two shot rate is really high right now through a few games but like when he does turn those shots down and he's patient um uh and he's like waiting for cutters along the baseline or or different um opportunities to open up and a player sometimes he gives it up and moves and gets it back and attacks from a different angle. That's the type of stuff that like super duper stars do. And the fact that he's already doing it at this young age, this early in the season,

showing real comfort with Jaden McDaniels, with Mike Conley, with Gobert. He threw a lob to Gobert the other night when last season he basically never even looked at Gobert when he was rolling down the paint. So I just think these pieces make so much sense. They have so much depth. They have space. They have so much size. And they match up really well with the best team. I mean, they beat, they spanked

the Denver Nuggets a little while ago. And they beat the Celtics. Yeah, they beat the Edwards piece. The decision-making still makes me a little nervous because they should have lost the Celtic game in regulation. Missoula calls a timeout and actually sets up a play. Maybe the game goes differently, but he heats up in a way that reminds me of the best players of all time. I feel totally comfortable saying that. He takes over games

for three, four minutes in ways that remind me of the best players I've ever seen. And Howard, we're the two old guys. I don't think that's nuts to say when Edwards is feeling it on both ends for three straight minutes, it's way, way up there. It's at a different level. To me, that's why they're a real contender because they have somebody who can elevate like that. Shea can do it, but he can't do it on the other end. And Shea's a good defensive player, but not... Edwards was like, he imprinted himself on that overtime in a way that I thought was pretty unique. So you throw that with the other stuff. I'm with you, Howard, on Towns, though.

He's the fart in the church of this team right now. I would say that one of the reasons why people are skeptical about this team is obviously their offense when Towns is on the court with Gobert. So far, 118.9 offensive rating. Extremely good. The Denver Nuggets this season are 118.4 just for some comparison and some context. And they're doing things on defense that they just never have done for like half a decade. They're not fouling. They're grabbing defensive

rebounds. They're getting back in transition. So... When you can protect the rim and you can defend the two best perimeter guys in the other team, that's like 97% of the battle. What we're talking about ties into mine. So let's take a break and then we'll go into mine.

Score early this NFL season with FanDuel, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get $150 bonus bets when your first $5 Moneyline bet wins. I am putting up a special bet on Friday that's going to be from FanDuel. We're waiting to see some of the lines, but you can listen to Million Dollar Picks with me and Raheem later. We love the Ravens in a tease, just as a spoiler alert.

Join on the action of FanDuel. Live same-game parlays. Find bets in the new Explore tab. Parlay Hub, just the best. Visit fanduel.com slash BS. Kick off the NFL season. FanDuel, official partner of the NFL. You must be 21 plus and president

in select states. $5 pregame money line wage required. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. All right, so here's mine. And it ties into what Pina was just talking about with

Minnesota. I think size has become the most important thing in the league. And think about how different that is from where we were in, you know, even 10 years ago or a team like the Warriors could go 73-9 or the Miami Heat winning 27 games where it's like centers, whatever, just grab whoever. You look at the best teams now, the teams that I think have a chance to win the title, just go through them.

Not only does Denver have Jokic, but they also have Gordon and Porter. Calvin Booth talked in the KOC piece about it. He just cares about length. He wants just like size all over the place. The Celtics have Porzingis and they have Tatum and they have Brown and they have Horford

and they're just kind of long all over the place. Philly's got Embiid and now they have all these long wings and they're just kind of a bitch to play now. Golden State, I don't think totally counts with Looney and Draymond and Wiggins, but they can at least fight it off. But you saw last night with Jokic where he just, Jokic owns the Warriors now. I don't see what they do with him going forward. Minnesota, we talked about not just go bear towns and read the fact that they always

seem to have two of them out there, but then McDaniel's on the wing and his ability to guard basically anybody of any height. Milwaukee's got Giannis and Lopez. Phoenix is a no. Lakers have AD and LeBron. Their size was one of the reasons that they got to the final four last year. And then this is one of the reasons down on the Clippers. Just night after night, they're not going to have the size or the ability to protect the rim or just do all the things you're going to need to do when you're playing all these teams. So Howard, I wonder like,

are we back in the eighties now? Is this Samson, Elijah, Juan Parrish of McHale time? Or are we, is this the new wave version of that with threes? Is that where we're headed? It's really fascinating. Now that Porzingis, knock on wood, knock on everything, that he stays healthy.

Is this really effective player who is much more of the new age big man, right? He's great at, he can shoot three, like he'd do other things. But primarily, shoot threes, so he's going to pull the other center away. Blocks shots. Porzingis versus Embiid, to the extent that Sixers-Celtics has been a thing for a while now, it actually did hit me at one point. It's like, oh, wow, we haven't had a big man thing in a while. Oh, wait, Embiid versus Jokic last year. They only played each other once because Embiid was out the second time,

but their head-to-head because mvp race was a big deal their rivals of a sort because of the mvp races of the last couple of years they don't play each other enough but i was like well no we like that was the first step toward us getting big man rivalries again and the big men mattering enough that we actually get like it for the longest time it's been watching you know durant and lebron go at each other steph and and whoever you want to plug into the into the equation two centers going at each other we could actually get excited yeah how about the dwight howard that part of it feels like a throwback well dwight howard with the five six straight first team ombas or the year that Andre Drummond made a third team all NBA, like the center thing was dead. It was over. It was dead. It was so dead that the NBA made all-star ballots, two guards, three front court guys. It took centers off the ballot and

bring the old ballots back. We're ready. Let's have centers back in the ballot. I think we have enough again. But the interesting thing is this, whereas back in the day, like it was about, you know, Elijah one Ewing morning shack smits, whoever David Robinson, and they were, they were definitely defensive forces, but you played through them that like the, the value of size in the NBA once upon a time was if you got a really big, really strong dude who could, who could get really close to the paint no one's going to be able to stop him from scoring and now it's a variety of things right yokich is not the classic scoring center but he could certainly score at a high level but his playmaking is what makes him truly elite and bead is is kind of a hybrid of old school and new school porzingis is a shooter slash rim protector um Towns. They're all in different towns.

Yeah, they're just in different forms now. Part of the evolution of the big man is that it's now resulted in you've got all these different versions of a really impactful big man. And they're not all doing it the same way, but that's kind of the fun of it. So yeah, they're really relevant again. And watching them go at each other actually matters now in a way that it hasn't mattered in a long time. And Pina, the other piece of this, even the bad teams and the mediocre teams have a guy, right? Houston's been one of the most fun league pass teams this year. Oh, yeah. Shangoon is like a real, this is really happening now, like in a real way. I don't know how he grew

two inches, but he's impactful. The Kings who suck right now, they have Sabonis. Memphis has Jaron Jackson, who at least, you know, he's not, he doesn't rebound like the normal centers do, but, but you go through the line and it's almost like if you don't have, this is why I'm so suspicious of Phoenix. Like, I just don't see Nurkic being able to battle these dudes night after night after night and stay healthy. What were you going to say about this? It's not only the size at the center position, and the Spurs are another team, by the way, that they're playing Victor Weminyama at the four with Zach Collins. And I think that it's about having fives and big fours who can shoot, who can put the ball on the deck, who can drive, who can create plays, all that pass vision, and defend multiple

positions. That's what it is right now. And I think that's really important. Size will always matter in basketball. But the thing that's really interesting to me that touches on this is just kind of the combination of that with the death of the old school point guard, like the 6-2 traditional pass first guy, where you look at the spurs as this really interesting example and i don't know if this is going to work probably won't but they

just completely are punting on the point guard position with jeremy sohan i hate it you look you look at the the oklahoma city thunder are just huge at every position because josh giddy is like 610 or whatever it is. And I personally look at the Thunder and I think it's great that Chet is playing at Chet who's looked fantastic. He's playing at the five. He can space. He can do so many amazing things with the basketball. But I look at how the Spurs are playing with Wemba Nyama and putting him next to Collins or Bassey or whoever, and they'll play Wemba Yama at the five sometimes and he looks great, but I want to see another big next to Chet too. And someone who's,

who has some skill. I don't know who that is right now. But if they can bring someone in just cause they're a little small in the front court. And when he comes out of the game, I mean, they, they sometimes they just have these really small lineups and they get beat

up on the boards. But that's just really interesting to me. And Phoenix, to what you said about Nurkish, they're going to be in a little bit of trouble potentially, but that's another team that just has totally punted on having a point guard. I don't know if they'll do that for the entire season. It's kind of come back to bite them already

with just like their turnover rate and how they can't. Especially in the last 30 seconds of a game, like the inability to guess who's good in the last 10 seconds a point guard who knows how to go into the corner and get the ball and take a foul make two free throws yeah so even i'm watching like the orlando magic i'm i know sruti's on this call i don't mean to blow smoke up your ass sruti but like they're probably going to win the title in 2027 like they look so incredible they're built for the future the title in 2027. Like they look so incredible. They're built for the future. They have guys who have skill at every position.

Yeah. Anthony Black is like has size. He was guarding Luca on post-ups and not getting completely destroyed. And he's not huge. He looks like he's 12 years old, but forcing turnovers and, and Suggs plays up a position. He's like the smallest guy on the court sometimes.

So I think size is like size plus skill has always been where the league is trending towards. And we might be hitting a point this season where we're here. Yeah. I wonder, as we were watching centers getting phased out in the early 2010s, and they're like these relics to the way basketball used to be played. Somebody like Mozgov. Mozgov wouldn't play one minute of an NBA game now. Like, I just think he'd be too tall and clumsy.

Roy Hibbert. Yeah, Roy Hibbert, guys like that. It reminds me of, like, I actually like watching the WNBA games now. I like the style of it. And one of the things that changed about the WNBA over the last 25 years was, you know, they were big. They had like that Samson Olajuwon kind of set up for the players. And it was just kind of clumsy and the shooting wasn't good enough. And then you watch over the last 10 years, his slashing kick drifted into that league. It completely changed the style. And I think we're seeing it here with the big guys where those Roy Hibbert types are gone.

And all these new guys that are coming in the league are guys like Chet, who are seven feet, but have learned how to either shoot threes or play with the ball at the top of the key and just things that we don't see anymore. And then the other thing, Howard, the revelation for me with Porzingis was like, House was telling me he did this last year in Washington, but I never trust House. He was like, if you put a smaller dude on Porzingis, he will bring that dude's ass down into the paint and he will jump hook right over him. I was like, all right, we'll see. Anytime somebody puts somebody small on Porzingis, he goes at them. Same thing for Tatum. The Celtics are trying to punish teams that do that, at least in theory when they're playing well. But just the versatility of these dudes, even somebody like Vucevic,

who is he even a top 10 offensive center anymore? I don't even know. But he's somebody who in the right matchup could have 35. So it feels like you can't compete for a title now unless you have somebody who can at least trade punches with one of these guys right or at least i was gonna say or at least protect the rim like i i think because i think like gobert in the right circumstances could have already been the backbone of a of a contending team but i don't know that Vuc could have been. In fact, I'm certain he could not have been. And I think it's the problem for, I had this, this like broad question. And I think I remember even having this conversation with a couple of people at Sloan, I think a year and a

half ago. And, and I, this came back to not haunt me, but like, I got the answer to my question, which was, can a team built around a primarily offense first center, in this case, Jokic, win a championship in an era where what you really needed out of the center position more than offense was rim protection and mobility that allowed you to defend away from the basket and various places on the court because of the era that we're in and all the screen and roll and all the need for bigs to be able to guard a lot of area. Could you build a championship team and a respectable enough defense role and all the the need for bigs to be able to be uh to guard a lot of area could could you could

you build a championship team and a and a respectable enough defense around a guy like yokich well a few months later we we had the answer but the mini version of that is the kings with sabonis because i don't i unless unless the kings could go find like an aaron gordon and and a contavious caldwell pope and everything, I'm skeptical of their ability to make those steps forward. And I do think choosing between them, like, all right, Embiid can do both. Jokic is just such a phenomenal elite offensive player in so many ways, playmaking, scoring,

that it almost doesn't matter that he's not your prototypical rim protector. He just has to play passable defense and they've got all this size elsewhere. So you've got to, it still matters who you've got around you, right? All that said, I think Vooch is the obsolete version of this. He can get you your 20 or 25 points.

He's never going to be – we've seen it. We've got enough years of him in Orlando and Chicago to know that is not the model that is going to get you anywhere in the NBA. Well, yeah, what I was going to say is that just beyond your, your quote unquote front court, like having size everywhere, like Aaron Gordon,

we keep bringing him up. He's the reason why he was the big advantage that the Denver Nuggets had in the NBA finals. Like there was no answer for him. And he had so many gravy buckets where he would just duck in on Gabe Vincent. You couldn't put anyone on him who was smaller. And the Miami Heat was just a roster full of guys who were smaller than Aaron Gordon, or he would take them down to the block. So I think that just having as much size as possible... Before the

season, I wrote about the Clippers and just how optimistic I was before they traded for James Harden. And one of the things I wrote about was how maybe they shouldn't be targeting another ball handler. They should be targeting an eight ball right now but having as much size as possible so you aren't vulnerable on those post-ups from guys like aaron gordon or jason tatum or whoever kawaii leonard um on switches and mismatch because that's what the playoffs are now anyway as well it's just a lot of mismatch hunting um so yeah it's just it's an interesting phenomenon. Your offense better be just unbelievable if you're not going to have this stuff at this point. For Phoenix to win four straight rounds, you're talking Booker and Durant averaging 60 points a game combined for two months on top of the fact that the no point guard piece, you got 12 fouls from Eubanks and Nurkic. Who knows if Nurkic is even going to make it to December. That guy's injury history is terrible. I like Minnesota. Somebody

texted me today that Minnesota to win the in-season tournament was 22 to one. And I was like, that's the perfect team to win the in-season tournament. A tournament that nobody is even sure we totally care about, but I could potentially see that happening. If you're betting on the in-season tournament, you need to reevaluate your life. I'm just going to say that to any of the listeners out there. Listen, I'm going to reevaluate it right now and I'm betting on it. Have you seen Shangoon yet in person, Beck? I have not. I have not. And I think I missed the Rockets

all of their trips through here last year they haven't exactly been a high priority to see in person me neither I haven't seen him yet I'm dying to see him because there's definitely some Jokic I hesitate to use it Jokic is on another level

but there's some discount Jokic stuff with him the passing which he always had the footwork, and I just think he's really hard to play against. He seems really confident now. They have the right team around him, at least for a young up-and-coming

team. Pina, do you have them in your predictions for any sort of, like, I'm psyched for this team or anything? Shingun, I have... I'm working on a Shingun profile right now. So I've had a conversation with Shingun,

Ime, Raphael Stone, a whole bunch of people that should be coming out next week hopefully. I'm obsessed with him. Have been for a couple years now. And when I heard that he grew two inches, I was just like, this is just absolutely incredible. And he looks, if you just look at obviously the numbers are kind of eye-popping right now,

but defensively, his mobility, his strength, he just looks like a different player. That entire team looks incredible. I mean, he has a real point guard with Fred Van Vliet. Dylan Brooks gives him this moxie on both ends. I think they're top 10 in offense, like top, I think they're fifth in net rating, right? Just like a crazy thing right now where email Ducca would probably win coach of the year if the season ended tomorrow. But he looks,

he looks amazing the way they're finally playing through him. And he just allows all every other young piece, like their role is way more clarified. Like Jalen green goes five for six by in the three point last night he's not taking these like crazy contested step back long twos on every other possession anymore um so i just think he's really smart and like baby yokich is kind of i mean he looked up to yokich growing up that was his idol um he's not as as the size isn't there which is a big part of yokich's dominance in the post and and on those short roles but at least he's not as as the size isn't there which is a big part of yokish's dominance in the post and and on those short rolls but at least he's tall enough he's at least tall enough now

oh and they got six nine this didn't work but at 6 11 this now works yeah and he's super crafty um he's got that like shot put shot from the the free throw line that's like going in every single time now. So he's got touch, uh, and he's making the pass that like, won't get you the assist, which is something that he always used to do. Um, so he's just really sitting the floor really well and he's still super young. I think he's just turned 21. I want to say, so the fact that he's in his third year, they drafted him when he was like 18 years old. So the future is amazing and the present is just beautiful. Well, the defense was so bad with him last year that even

he definitely was something last year. There was no question. It was like, alright, this guy's going to be something. But it was like but what is he? He's just going to be one of those good stats, bad team guys. Beck, one of the great things about this, OKC had it. They had him. They traded the pick. They traded it to Houston and did one of the great things about this OKC had it They had him

They traded the pick They traded it to Houston and did one of those tradebacks And grabbed assets thing And this guy is like the most OKC guy ever Like can you imagine him on OKC They just could have easily Had him and Chet next to each other On this crazy weird team

They already have that I love watching That's the dream right there He's literally the perfect guy to put next to Chet on this crazy, weird team they already have that I love watching. That's the dream right there. That's the dream right there. He's literally the perfect guy to put next to Chet. Bill, Sam Presti could go out right now and buy 72 more Alperin Shangoons because he has all the picks until the end of time. If they need a Shangoo, if they need an anything,

they could just go shopping anytime. Howard, Howard, Howard. There's only one Shangoon. Let's not get crazy right now. Yeah, he's not being rip-kid. I guarantee it. It's only one Shangoon. Let's not get crazy. Yeah, he's not being rip-kid. I guarantee it. It must drive Presti crazy. He's like,

I fucking nailed this. I have 200 million picks. We have an awesome team that might actually win like 48 games. And Shangoon was right there. And I can't believe we fucked that up. But that's how you know a team is really good at assessing talent

is when you can point to something that was a mistake where we could sit here, oh, man, they got it. They'd love to have that one back. And yet you look at their roster and go like, no, man, they're fine. Like, yeah, maybe they'd be better. But like also eventually, again, you can't pay everybody. But actually, one other quick thought as I was at the Garden last night for Wemby Mania, which ended up being sort of a dud. Just for that night, Wemby is not a dud, but it did not live up to the hype.

There's too much hype for him to live up to. He can't possibly do it every night, and the garden's different. Howard, are you saying that Wemby's overrated? Is that what you're saying right now? Wow. By the way, so that champ broke out, I think it was in the third quarter. He goes to the line, fourth quarter. And I've been there for a lot of different chants of various degrees and various themes and levels of insults and profanity.

It wasn't that bad. It lasted only a couple seconds. It wasn't that loud. It wasn't that bad. But it was still striking. Like, whoa, folks, come on. Like, hold on. Do you realize who you're?

It's fine. It'll be a fun little footnote eventually when he becomes like a five-time MVP. Can I say something on that though? Yeah. I don't blame the Knicks fans for any sort of bitterness after the century they've gone through. When they lash out, I'm like,

you know what? I get it, guys. It's fine. But also it's playing to type, right? This is kind of what we expect of New York fans to be edgy. They're going to boo all their own draft picks. It's fine. But also, it's playing to type, right? This is kind of what we expect of New York fans to be edgy. They're going to boo all their own draft picks. It's fun. It's part of just the landscape.

It hit me at one point last night before the game talking to people about Wemby. And then somebody said, you know, and blah, blah. And Chet Holmgren's name came up. And I realized, like, man, poor Chet Holmgren. Like, he not only injured his whole rookie season when he could have been getting maybe this kind of buzz and he's like, he's put on some, some weight and muscle and everything since then he's probably better off now having red shirted the year essentially. But if Wemba and Yama had come over one year later,

we would be all like buzzing about like, did you see what Chet Holmgren did last night? Cause that dude does a lot of really amazing shit. And like, he is also really tall and really long and has guard skills in the body of, of a center. Um, and is really fluid and, and just moves with a ball.

He shoots the three better than women Yama at this stage. Like we would be talking about what an alien Chet Holmgren was in, instead of women Yaman. He's like almost, maybe it's to his benefit that he's kind of like in the shadow almost at this stage.

And you left out, he's a competitive motherfucker. That's what I like the most about him. He's kind of a badass. Like, he really is feisty. I love watching him. I'm with you.

I think if Wimby's not in this season, we're talking about Chet, we're talking about Shengun, we're talking about the revamped We're talking about Shengun. We're talking about the revamped Philly team and then probably Ant, right? Who else? Those would be the four, Pina? I'd have to think. Case and Wallace just dominant, shooting like 78% at the rim.

I'd have to think about that. Those are all really great storylines for sure. Cam Thomas just sprained his ankle, averaging like 35 points a game. There's one for you. But no, that's probably what everyone would be talking about. Absolutely. I think Barry and Mahoney,

one of them was talking about Cam Thomas yesterday and was saying he's the perfect guy where he can be the number one guy in your offense and put up stats. But if he's the number eight guy in your team, he would also put up the same stats. Exactly. Depending on what minutes he's, he's like exactly the same player in any situation.

I thought that was a good way to put it. All right. We got to go. Um, good to see you guys. I'm glad we started. I liked our three big things. I feel good. Thumbs up, thumbs up for this segment, but good to see you guys. I'm glad we started. I liked our three big things. I feel good.

Thumbs up. Thumbs up for this segment, but good to see you guys. Thanks. Thanks, Bill. Thank you. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me,

I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey. And it's on prime all season long. Watch prime Monday night hockey deliver unreal plays. The biggest goals can't miss moments.

Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL is best. They're all on prime prime Monday night hockey. It's on Monday. It's on prime. It's on Prime. Alright, the man, the myth, the legend,

Benjamin Solak from the Ringers here. You can hear him on the Ringer NFL with Shiel Kapadia. You can hear him on the Ringers Philly Special. You can watch the play sheet. And you're not a fan of the New England Patriots, but I'm going to ask you this question before we do the assignment that I assigned to you. Should Bill Belichick be fired

just from, as a neutral observer, knowing nothing, having no attachment to the team, just from what you've seen from the preparedness, the personnel, the game management? Is this a good coach anymore? Because this is something that people keep asking me and I don't know how to respond. No, he shouldn't be fired.

He should be told that if things don't change, he's going to be fired, right? So I think that right now what you've seen obviously isn't good. This is not a well-coached team. I think Barnwell had the point earlier in the season where he was like, listen, the Patriots' special teams is one of the worst in the league.

That's how we know we're in trouble. Belichick's special teams unit isn't playing that well. So it hasn't been a well-coached team, but you have a large body of work with Bill Belichick being a successful coach.ached team, but you have a large body of work with Bill Belichick being a successful coach. And again, like there's not a lot of defensive coaches in the league

who successfully like install new game plans, come up with solutions. And he's still one of them. And so I would say no, but one, you tell him, hey, like you have to relook at how you do your staff.

We're not going to do like your sons and your buddies anymore. You have to get more serious about this. Right. The other thing is, should Belichick be fired? Even if you think yes, no, because you can get an owner to trade for Bill Belichick. All right.

You should not be firing Bill Belichick, letting him walk on the street when there are plenty of guppy owners out there, guys who want a big name, big splash, go convince you Josh Harris just bought the Commanders. Why don't you go trade for Bill Belichick? Right. Even if you think you want to get rid of him, don't act like you want to get rid of him and see if you can get draft capital for him.

If they fire Belichick, he'll be snapped up tomorrow by some team and that'll have been a waste. I think they need to work the trade market if and when they plan on getting rid of him. So I agree with you. And that's what I've been telling people because there's a feeling that

this Indianapolis game in Germany is going to go bad. Yeah, I saw this. They're not going to let him back on the plane? They're going to leave him in Frankfurt? He's going to have to get home on air Lufthansa? I don't know what it's called. I find this very funny that the Germany game is the one we've all set our sights on. Well, there's the bye week after it. If it's a rock bottom type of game, I've heard... I get some Pat's info from time to time. I don't know if Belichick and Kraft are like, you know, playing poker on Monday nights together at this point. I don't I think it's a pretty terse relationship. I wonder, is he just at the point we have you have grandparents? I'm sure that you've kind of hit you've watched it different stages. Right. And at some point it's like, hey, maybe grandpa can't drive us the five hours on the trip to Washington, D.C. Maybe one of us should drive.

Like you just, you hit points. I'm sure I'm going to hit a point like that pretty soon myself because I'm getting old. But I just wonder like, is it possible at this point, because I don't think it is, for him to do everything anymore? Because the personnel stuff specifically dating back to the last two Brady years and then going all the way through, it's just been bad.

They've had bad drafts. They've had bad free agency signings. They've emphasized the wrong things. They've spent money in the wrong places. And so there's that piece. But then also just from a game-to-game standpoint, the delay game at the worst possible time, the fumble at the worst possible time, the special teams play at the worst possible time, the third and four that just,

it just doesn't have a feel of a Belichick team anymore. It hasn't for a while. Yeah. And, and the thing that I always take for granted when I talk about Belichick, that I have to remind myself and pause and stop and make sure I qualify is I think he's still generally got the goods. I just saw him be such a smart coach for so long that I can't imagine that all evaporated yesterday. But if he individually just doesn't have the fire, if he just doesn't have the interest in it, it doesn't matter whether he has the goods or not, because he's not going to like being a coach of an NFL team takes an exorbitant amount out of you independent on are you calling plays, not calling plays, defense, offense, how are you preparing?

Like, no matter what, it just costs a ton. And so if he doesn't have a fire in his belly, I don't want to do the John Gannon, do you have a fire in your gut thing? But if you don't, then it's just a hard position to kind of, I don't want to say coast on, because coast is probably too critical of a word, but still just kind of like not go 110% on. And that's partly on Belichick and then also it's on ownership to be able to say

like, hey, you're a great coach and you could still be a great coach, but if you're not willing to do the like, figure out how to make Mac Jones feel better on the sideline thing, that's a lot of what coaching is. It's having a 23-year-old, 24-year-old who's pissed off about something and it's a little bit unreasonable and you got to deal with it, right?

Like Mike Tomlin with George Pickens, you know, it's Stephon Diggs, Sean McDermott. It's part of his dealing with players. And if that's just not something that grandpa wants to deal with anymore, then it's just going to be tough for him to do the job, even if he would have the goods otherwise. If he's just not in it, he's not in it. Well, I remember when

Phil Jackson took over the Knicks and he wasn't working that hard, so that was one problem. But he also, his philosophy of what basketball was, the sport was shifting and he didn't see it, right? He was trying to run like he wanted to put it in the triangle and he wanted to do things that worked in the 90s and the 2000s. I don't feel like Belichick has hit that point. But I don't think he's as innovative as he used to be.

This is the most innovative football coach of all time. Even when you look at something like drafting Gronk and Hernandez together and what he used to be. This is the most innovative football coach of all time, even when you look at something like drafting Gronk and Hernandez together and what he wanted to do with those two guys. It was pretty revolutionary. The stuff they were doing defensively in the early 2000s was revolutionary. There's not a lot of revolution

happening with this team anymore. When you look back at some of the drafts, man, that 2020 draft, where it's only three years later. Yeah. Duggar, Uche, Anthony Jennings, Asi Asi and Dalton Keed in the two third round tight ends who I don't think caught a ball between them.

The kicker who they immediately had to wave because he had some weird shit in his background. Yeah, he had a Marshall kid. Yeah. Michael Anwenu. But it's just, you go through and it's like, okay, so we got Anwenu and Duggar out of that.

Cool. Uche's good too. Like, I think like... Yeah, but he's going to be off the team. They're going to, you know, he's going to be gone in a year. And then the next year they got Barmore and Romandre out of it. So they're getting like, they're getting two, but they're also missing over and over again on receivers, on corners. They're moving backwards and up, but they're also missing over and over again on receivers, on corners.

They're moving backwards and up, but they're not getting these impact guys. And you look around the league, and it's like Baltimore's impact dudes that they drafted in the top couple rounds, right? We passed on Lamar a couple years ago. They just haven't landed the impact guys on top of all just, I don't know, just the sloppiness. There's no other word sloppiness. That's what I watch week to week. It's a two and seven team that honestly could be five and four with a couple of plays. And I wouldn't feel great about it, but the sloppiness is what's killed them. And that's the thing is like, I I'm getting guff from the rest of the staff. Cause I still have the Patriots a lot higher than the rest of

staff on our power rankings. And it's because I watch it and I'm like, OK, well, they're like one or two little edges away from like winning a lot of these games. Belichick used to be the king of little edges.

And absolutely, like, especially when you look at the draft history, the free agent signings, it feels like the little edges thing is being lost because he like that first Dolphins game,

they walk out with like three safety defense and they kind of punk to a Mike McDaniel for a couple of drives. And you're like, oh, yeah, this is what it used to look like. I used to do stuff like this, you know, but against McVay in the Super Bowl and come out with game plans and little bespoke designs. It was sick. And then by the second quarter, McDaniel, Tua, they corrected.

They caught wind in their sails and Belichick and the Patriots just had no way to capitalize. Like even when they get one little edge, they can't fully finish the job the way they used to. So I don't know. It's a very dissimilar Patriots team to a Patriots team that we're, we're used to seeing now there's still like, right. Like Kyle Duggar and Jabril Peppers is like all of a sudden and everything that everybody ever wanted him to be five years later. So it's like flashes of it.

And that's why it's hard to fully sell on it. But yeah, it looks a lot different than he used to. And they had bad luck. You know, Gonzales,'s still like flashes of it. And that's why it's hard to fully sell on it. But yeah, it looks a lot different than it used to. And they had bad luck. You know, Gonzalez, who looked like an absolute star, he gets hurt. Judon gets hurt.

Yeah. They've had some bad wide receiver injury luck. But yeah, when, as I'm watching it, and especially the Mac Jones piece of it, and it's like,

I just don't think anybody would be a good coach with Mac Jones. You know, and I don't, nobody's going six and four, seven and three with Mac Jones and these receivers. But on the other hand, Belichick was responsible for the receivers. The reason I wanted to lead with this is just,

I feel like this is an important moment. This is the greatest coach of all time. And if you don't think he's the greatest, he's one of the three greatest, but I, the resume is probably the greatest. And I don't know, I'm old enough to remember when this happened to Landry and Chuck Knoll and even Don Shula. And sometimes you kind of lose it. You get older. Some of the philosophies you have, like you mentioned, the inability to connect with Mac Jones, that's a real thing. Belichick's 71 years old. I guarantee he doesn't understand the Mac Jones generation of players. So I feel like this game, I do feel like if it goes horribly, I don't think he'd get fired, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a step down or this would be his last season with the Patriots or something like that.

So I'm honoring that. I hope just whenever the Belichick era in New England gets the nail in the coffin, it is not Gardner Minshew in Germany who puts it in. That to me is inglorious. Isn't this how this ends though? This is how it ends. These things never end well. It's not like, oh, he rides off in the sunset on the shoulders of his players. It's Gardner

Minshew in Germany. I want it to be like CJ Shroud or something. So like in 10 years from now when he's still good, we can be like, oh, in that one game where he, you know, knocked Belichick off the pedestal. If it's Minshew.

Yeah. I know you're a Minshew guy, but me, I can't, I'm not into that. That's, that's, that's not epic enough for me as a finish.

I, whatever happens, the, the resume will be the resume and the legacy will be the legacy. But, um, it is just weird to watch a Belichick team. That's this kind of messy.

All right. I brought you on to talk about best future bets, and we're going to talk about that through the context of what we think is going to happen in the league. Future bets can go division. There's on Fandu, you can bet best record. You can bet conference.

There's over, under stuff, things like that. But let's start with the AFC because I think the AFC is more fun where you have five, eight, you have 11 teams that can conceivably make the playoffs. I'm including the four and four Chargers, four and four Texans, and four and four Jets, who probably won't. You also have this Buffalo five and four, Cleveland five and three, Pittsburgh five and three. There's only room for two, maybe only even room for one if somebody gets hot. Who are you looking at as the best

value team right now in the AFC? I do like Ravens plus 320 to get the one seed. Right now, they have the same record as the Chiefs. The Chiefs are favored for that at plus 115. Both of them are a two-loss team. When you go on your luck, Baltimore's had a fairly easy

strength of schedule to this point. It's about to get way harder. So about to play their entire division a bunch, right? Second hardest schedule left according to unpredictable, whereas the Chiefs are, I think, 15th. Yeah, 15th. But Baltimore also, when you go into some like the luck numbers that you look at in terms of like penalties and turnover EPA, Baltimore's actually been an oddly unlucky team in terms of their defensive takeaways. They've had a couple of key ones, but in general, haven't had a ton of defensive turnovers. Can do more there. Offensive turnovers have been unlucky. Lamar

has at least one fumble in the pocket a game where you're like, dude, just hold two hands, Lamar. So they have stuff that's actually held them down a little bit in power rankings when you go and you start to try to draw out some of the luck plays. A couple injuries too, especially in the first quarter

of the season. And that's the second thing. They've been extremely banged up on the defensive side of the ball. There have been musical chairs back there, and they're trying to get back to full strength, and then someone else will go down, what have you. Over nine weeks, Baltimore has played better ball

than Kansas City, frankly. I'm not worried about Kansas City, but Baltimore has played better ball. I do think that the divisional schedule is worrisome. You know, I don't know if they're going to be able to sweep the Bengals

and sweep the Browns. But with only... Are you counting this weekend's game against Cleveland as worrisome? Yeah, 100%. Even with the Cleveland's offensive line being in shambles? So, the Ravens' pass rushers,

like, and they've been playing great. I don't want to make too much fun of them, but I can't only... I can't only put so much weight on Jadavion Clowney and Kyle Van Nooy in 2023 as big, scary threats. The thing is that this Browns defense is legit a game-winning defense,

a takeover defense. When they're at their top, they are suffocating at really, really impressive levels over the last decade of football. The first team that kind of actually a little bit embarrassed them this year, got on them, was these Ravens. And now they're seeing them for the second time this season.

And I wouldn't be surprised if we get an extremely spirited effort out of them. So, I do like the Ravens in that game, but AFC North, man, I mean, it's been a slobber knocker forever. I'm not counting my chickens there until they hatch. So, I do like Ravens plus three 20 first year in AFC. Uh,

but I understand why there's, there's, there's some pause there. I'm willing to believe in the, in the talent, believe in the upside, believe in how well this team is playing. It's the best team I've seen in the AFC this year.

I, one of the things I like about them, um, it seems like they have answers for whatever type of game is going to unfold. And that's what I worry about with Casey. Cause I don't see the same firepower with them this year. I'm not, it seems like they have answers for whatever type of game is going to unfold. And that's what I worry about with KC. Because I don't see the same firepower with them this year. I'm not the first person to make that point.

But it just doesn't seem like guys are open. And it seems like it ebbs and flows on Kelsey. And if they can get some crazy play from their running backs. But for the most part, they're just not explosive. They don't seem fast to me. Baltimore still feels like they're scratching the surface. I actually feel like the room for them to get better. And even somebody like Zay Flowers, who I have on two fantasy teams, I feel like he has a level to go up. He jumps off the TVs when you're watching him. It feels

like they're running the ball better. They just seem like the most complete team to me. Honestly, I think Cincy is a better kind of complete team bet to me than Kansas City right now. But we've learned all these years not to bet against the Reed-Mahomes infrastructure. But I just like Cincy's upside more than Kansas City's this year. There's no shot at Mahomes, no shot at Reed. But even last week, they were like, our defense, man, our defense won this game.

It's like, no, no, you won the game because the ball slipped out of two of his hands on a wide open touchdown that would have tied the game. You're going to lose an OT. That's why you won the game. It wasn't your defense getting stops. You got a ridiculous fumble touchdown. They should have lost that game. So I just I have them third behind Cincy

and Baltimore just in my head. You agree with that or you still have Casey second? I think I still have Casey second. I'm worried about Cincinnati's receiver health, right? T didn't practice this week. I didn't practice today. Jabbar did practice today. Again, he's got the soreness. My entire line on this Bengals

passing attack through the season has been like, all right, you're surviving with this extremely fast time to throw and these shallow targets. And they've gotten much deeper down the field and much more like the Bengals of old last couple of weeks. But the thing about those five, six,

seven weeks of playing that style of football, is it accrues an enormous amount of hits on your receivers, right? It costs a lot out of your guys. Jamar got injured on a ball 50 yards down the field. I know he didn't get hit like, you know, within five hours line of scrimmage,

but in general, this is a very wide receiver dependent. And Collinsworth called it out on the play. Yeah. Collinsworth was like, oh, he's going to field the next day. He was like, that man will hurt in two days.

And he did. Jamar's part of his locker room. Like, man, this is killing me. So I'm very pleased for Collinsworth. But in general, this is a very wide receiver dependent offense. Obviously, Burrow is the driving force. But when you're so much spread and shred, you need multiple receivers who are really good threats.

And if they have constantly banged up Chase and banged up T, that worries me a little bit for this team. So the Bengals over the last few weeks have looked exactly like the team we expected them to. They've looked terrifying. I'd like to see it a little bit more. And I'd especially like to know about the health of the receivers before I fully put all my chips in the middle. One of the ones that I love is the Bengals to win to make the playoffs, which is

minus 290, something like that, but just to parlay with something else. I think I want to wait now to see what happens in this game on Sunday on that one with the receivers. If you're going to take out both of those guys or they're going to be compromised in some way, I don't know.

I don't know how much I trust them to equal one out against the hottest quarterback in the league. Texans might get Stingley back for this game too, which is going to help normalize their defense a lot. It's been a big problem for them. Texans-Bengals is one where

I'm very, very interested to see the results of this game, even like win-loss, how it affects the playoffs, what have you. There's a big heat check for Texans-offense, Bengals-defense. Bengals-defense have been lights out last few weeks. Texans-offense, obviously, bad game against Carolina, but generally really impressive unit. Going to learn a lot

in this one. I'm very excited for that game. Can we talk people out of a possible tease there once and for all? Yeah, to throw the Bengals in a tease for any reason? I love a Ravens tease. Get that down to a pick-up. I do not want to touch the Bengals-Saxons tease. No, sir. Give me more Titans plus seven and a half in my teaser legs this week. Who do you like with a Ravens tease, just out of curiosity? Because that's going to be a topic with me and Raheem later, because I'm dying to tease them with somebody

and it was going to be the Bengals and now I have an open spot. Yeah, I like that the Titans tees at plus seven and a half going against the Buccaneers. Tampa's defense right now is about as big of a funnel defense as we have in the league where they're extremely good against the run and extremely bad against the pass. The Titans are in

a spot where obviously like historically been, been a heavy run team, but with Levis, they're very clearly opening the passing game up a little bit more in kind of like a, let's see what the guys got sort of a situation. But you have talented enough receivers and Deandre Hopkins in Traylon

Burks, if he's available in Kyle Phillips, who Levis was working with nicely this past week, where you think, all right, this team can, can actually work pretty well in the passing game. I wouldn't be surprised if that game ends up still one score game the whole way.

Titans are going to be extremely tough on defense in general. So Titans plus seven and a half, I'm putting that on a leg with Baltimore. I think I have that already if memory serves. Yeah. I was staring at Denver bringing them to almost 14 points in Buffalo. Buffalo had another team meeting today. It was

just like, man, Denver's been pretty good since that 70-20 game. And Buffalo's gone the other way. And that's just to get that to 14. Let me throw this one at you. The New England Patriots' worst record in the league, 10-1 right now. Oh, wow.

I just want to talk through it. They're 2-7. I think they're going to lose to Indy this week by week. The tough one's going to be there at the giants. Um, maybe Tyrod Taylor back for that one. Home chargers at Pittsburgh, Casey at Denver,

Buffalo. Oh, home Casey at Denver at Buffalo home jets. It feels a little three and 14 ish. The way the season's going, um, 10 to one seemed like pretty good value. I guess the fear would be Carolina's 1-7 right now.

Yeah. So I looked at these numbers earlier. I liked the Giants a little bit. It was plus 300. It's plus 280 now. The Giants, like you said, maybe tie rod for that game. We don't really know exactly

where tie rod's at. Tyrod, the line from Brian Dable was that we're unsure if he's going to play again this season because of the ribs injury. So they're not committing to anything. They're not committing to anything. If this team is going to play Tommy DeVito for multiple games intentionally, I'm going to find every way to fade them that I can.

One of which would be worst regular season record. The Giants are the team that I like for that. The Patriots, the Patriots would have to want to intentionally tank because they have just like more, a lot more talent. I know they don't have a ton of talent, but they have more talent than like the Panthers do and the Giants do with the injuries the Giants have. So they'd have to want to tank.

And so if we feel good about like Belichick might legitimately get left on an airstrip in Germany, then it's probably a good look now as opposed to later after the Colts game if they decide to blow things up. They have the worst record in the AFC, though. That was the only thing I was like, man, I think they're the worst team in the AFC. So if I'm getting 10 to 1 odds, who the F knows? Your team, Tennessee, that you mentioned earlier, they're 3-5. And you look at their schedule

and yes for playoffs for them, what do you think it is? Oh, man. Plus 2... No, AFC. Plus 3-10. Plus 9-20. Holy Moses. So, they go

Tampa. They're at Tampa at Jacksonville next two weeks and then they have home Carolina home Indy they have we've seen Mike Vrabel do weird shit before

they're at Miami home Houston home Seattle at Houston home Jacksonville I was trying to figure out could they get to nine and eight

because nine and eight might be the seventh seed in the AFC because all these teams have to play each other constantly and it's like, could they go

six and three down the stretch? It seems conceivable plus 920. I feel like, I feel like 10, you gotta be 10 and seven in the AFC.

You think so? I don't think nine and eight cuts it. I mean, like if we're talking nine and eight, then that's the Jaguars and the Texans probably.

That's at least three of the AFC North teams, I would say. That's Bills and Dolphins in the East. And then in the West, that's Chiefs and maybe Chargers. That's at least three of the AFC North teams, I would say. That's Bills and Dolphins in the East. And then in the West, that's Chiefs and maybe Chargers. That's like 10 of the 16 teams if we're talking about a nine-win team. Hold on.

Let's walk through that, though. All right. I'll concede Baltimore, KC, Jacksonville, Miami, and Cincy. I'll get into 10 wins. Yeah. Do you feel good about Cleveland with their quarterback situation, their offensive line going, you know know they're 5-3 right now getting to 10-7

like that's 5-4 I could see them going 5 I could see them going 4-5 I could too I'm saying I said one of I said three total in the AFC North I think one of Steelers or Browns

will be a 10 win team I think honestly you've had the Chargers in there and I don't see any way the Chargers get to 10 wins you watch them Chargers are a 9 win team Houston's not getting't see any way the Chargers get to 10 wins. You watch them? Chargers are a 9-win team.

Houston's not getting to 10 wins. Jets aren't getting to 10 wins. I gotta be honest. I think Houston's more likely than the Titans to get to 10 wins. I love this Texan team, man. I'm in. I gotta be honest. Not only do I not think Buffalo's gonna get to 10 wins,

no playoffs is now minus 102. I know. It's, they're spiraling. How are you? Holy shit. Are you, are you fully cashing in on the Bills,

you know, season Armageddon? Are you waiting for like really, really, really the bricks to start falling before you start cashing in? Because that was your big take coming into the preseason.

I'm going to give you my answer right after the break. Wow. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer.

Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers,

host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. TD and your small business go together like... TD small business account managers have in-depth business banking expertise, so they can give you the advice and resources you need to make your day-to-day easier.

So if you're ready to meet your small business match, we're ready for you. Visit td.com slash small business match to book an appointment with one of our advisors. All right, we're talking about flow bills. So worst defense in the league last five weeks, according to DVOA. That's not a small sample size. Five weeks is a lot. It also matches the eye test. Allen doesn't look 100% to me. I don't know what the percentage is, but he doesn't look 100. I think the deep throws have

been really weird by him this year. In general, the vibe seems a little off. The players' meetings are a red flag. If they get to 10 wins, it's going to be like what you and Sheil said before the season where you were like, I don't really like this Buffalo team, but Josh Allen just gets to 10 wins. And that was it. You just went chalk on it and it was the right move. But he would have to single-handedly drag five more wins out of this team. And you look at, they got this sneaky Denver game this week. It's a little sneaky. It just looks easy. People throw a Buffalo in a tease. They're back on track. Home Jets. Then this gauntlet.

At Philly. At KC. Home Dallas. At Chargers. Home New England. At Miami. There's five wins in there. Potentially.

But there also might be three wins in there. What do you think? They have to go 2-0 over their split. Broncos and Jets. To then go 500 over the home stretch. And then end up 5-4. So you think they have to be 7-4 heading their split, Broncos and Jets, to then go 500 over the home stretch and then end up 5-4. So you think they have to be 7-4 heading into that gauntlet? Yeah.

I think they will be. But man, it doesn't feel good, does it? To feel that, to think that. I have to trust the caliber of offense. This has been one of the top offenses in the league all season by most metrics. Bills fans say,

oh, they're only good against bad defenses. That's not true. They've been good against all defenses. This is going to be a and this is going to be an offense powered team. Sean McDermott keeps talking about complimentary

football defense got to get off the field and it'd be nice if they could steal a turnover here and there and get a stop here and there. But with the amount of injuries they've accrued, it just has to be an

offense powered team. And so long as they get away from the turnovers, they're seventh right now in turnovers per drive. They should be OK. So you got to trust that that noise is going to go down and that the offensive And so long as they get away from the turnovers, they're seventh right now in turnovers per drive, they should be okay. So you got to trust that that noise is going to go down and that the offensive numbers

and the offensive production is going to hold true. That's what we know about football over large samples is that offense is king and turnovers are noisy. So it should be fine. I don't love the players meetings. That worries me. It'd be better if this was like a Chiefs team or a Bengals team that had been to the peak

and they had a lot of trust and a lot of faith. This is a Bills team that's kind of near the end of the rope in terms of how often they've been close and not quite. And so there is a little bit of, you know, energy in the powder keg right now.

And you're worried about this thing really exploding. I can't take credit totally for this one, even though it was one of my big takes because I had no idea they would lose like three of their best guys on defense, including Milano. It gets a little goofy when

that happens. I was also wrong on a lot of shit. Do you have one more AFC future before we move to the NFC? AFC, yeah. I wrote Bengals down at plus 320. I wrote that's to win the division. I think that that's worth looking into. Oh, that's a long shot. I like it. I prefer the Ravens. Like I said, I had Ravens plus 320 to win the division. I think that that's worth looking into. Oh, that guy's a long shot. I like it. Yeah. I prefer the Ravens.

Like I said, I had Ravens plus 320 to win the conference. I was looking at season-long production. I do think that it was an interesting conversation right now

with to lead the league in receiving yards. You have Tyreek Hill is minus 125 and then A.J. Brown is plus 360. It's currently a two-horse race.

We're starting to look at NFC now as well. Do you know, off the top of your head, do you have any idea how far apart those two players are receiving yards wise? Do you have a guess? Well, I have both of them on my fantasy teams. That's a good day.

Aren't they pretty close? They're 70 yards off. They're really not far off. And the Eagles aren't winning games like they won last season where it's multiple scores and we just sit on the ball in the second half.

Brown's going to continue to be used at an extremely high volume. I do think that Hill being minus 125 and Brown being plus 360 is wrong for the fact that this is pretty much a two-horse race at this point. You're risking yourself from injury.

Like, sure, CeeDee Lamb or Stephon Diggs could go thermonuclear, but that'd be a legitimately historic run. I like Brown plus 360 as the lead league in receiving on FanDuel to get over Tyreek. That's not explicitly AFC, but that'd be a legitimately historic run. I like Brown plus 360 as the lead league in receiving on FanDuel

to get over Tyreek. That's not explicitly AFC, but I was surprised to see Tyreek Hill's number that big. You know, I have, I went all in on the Philly

offenses in fantasy, as you know. So I've had a vested interest in just their offense succeeding. It's funny how when things don't work out for them, they just, somebody says in the headset,

just fucking throw it to AJ Brown. And then he has, what, three routes or four routes that he runs, that's it. Four. Four routes, that's it. And they're just like, run AJ Brown. We're like, curl and slay out, dig and go. Run AJ Brown eight down the sideline.

Right. And by the way, it always works. And it's one of those things, like we had this with Moss in 07, when it was just like, just throw it to Moss. Like he's going to catch it or it's going to be a PI or something will happen. He is unstoppable. Yeah.

They threw that third down as like third and fourth and five that they threw to him late against the Cowboys when they could have ran the football and take a little more time off the clock. Throw a one-on-one ball to him and I had no shot as well covered whatever and Eagles fans are real pissed and then after the game Sirianni said we like that play for us. That's a high percentage

play. And he's not wrong. He's a bad bro. The way that they use Brown is astonishing and honestly infuriating. At least with the Dolphins, it's cool. The Eagles, they're just like, ah, big man run far. We'll throw it near you. Just shove a corner and catch

it. And it works every time. Can I introduce you at all in Denver to make the playoffs a plus 1300? No. I did my dalliance with maybe the Broncos make a playoff in the preseason. I'm done. Well, that was the new coach theory

that was a really compelling theory from Shields. Shields was like, I have no real other reason with the Broncos other than it's a new coach. But now we saw that with Antonio Pierce last week. So I feel like it's been vindicated in some ways. I don't know, maybe D'Amico Ryans, if they can get to like 9-8,

that might vindicate the new coach theory for this year, even if they don't make the playoffs. I'm a believer in Texans' playoff run. My ties are the Texans. That's the team that I think has a shot still to push for the division and push for the last wildcard. I like the Tex the Texans. That's the team that I think has a shot still to push for the division and push for the last wild card. I like the Texans team. Plus 250.

I think that number is not good enough. Two weeks ago, it was a little bit better. Plus 250 is probably accurate. I don't know if I would take that. But all together, this Texans team, they can score with a lot of teams. And defensively, they're getting talent back. And they're young teams. And defensively, they're getting talent back.

And they're young teams. They get better week over week. I think the Texans, I wouldn't be surprised if we're looking at like, oh, all these teams have locked down the division and we're there in week 15. It's like the Jaguars have an 85% chance to win the division because the Texans are just sitting

on the front stoop knocking, asking the Jags to drop the game. Well, if they somehow can beat Cincinnati this week, which seems actually somewhat conceivable if two receivers are going to be out for Cincinnati. T. Higgins, by the way, officially out. Rapp just tweeted it while we were chatting. Oh, shit. Okay.

Their next three after the Cincinnati game, they're home Zona, home Jacksonville, home Denver, and then they're at the Jets. Yeah. So, I mean, they could they're at the Jets. Yeah. So, I mean, they could legitimately be like seven and six or eight and five coming out of this. I just, I worry about them on the road. To me, they're like home Texans, road Texans

are just two different beasts. And they're about to play some really good defenses, right? They're going to get the Jags, who are one of the top defenses right now by a lot of metrics. They're about to get the Jets. They're going to get the Browns. They're going to play the Titans twice. So, I really like this offense. I think CJ defenses right now by a lot of metrics. They're about to get the Jets. They're going to get the Browns. They're going to play the Titans twice.

So I really like this offense. I think CJ Stroud's doing a lot of big boy stuff. I think he's going to look good against these top defenses. It's the line and the receivers and some of the ancillary pieces that I'm worried about. I think that with the defenses they face, I don't want to be too over leveraged on believing in these Texans, but they are fun

to root for. I'll tell you that. They don't really let you parlay the props for playoffs on FanDuel, but if I could parlay anything, it would be the Jets and the Chargers not to make the playoffs. The Chargers are minus 162 not to make it. It's a little too

much straight up, but I also would totally condone it. I just don't think... The Mike Williams thing was just massive. And every week, they just look like their offense has been dented. And on top of it, I don't like their coach.

And I just don't see a scenario where they go 6-3 down the stretch. I don't think it happens. They have pretty dramatic offensive line liabilities and pretty dramatic coverage liabilities. As everybody knows, I love their quarterback. I think Herbert's great. I think he's played great this season overall. It's not been his best season, as everybody knows, I love their quarterback.

I think Herbert's great. I think he's played great this season overall. It's not been his best season, but he's been really, really good. He's played great. Oh, interesting take from Ben the Soccer Mom. I said it's not been his best season, but overall he's played well.

He's played great. You said great. How about, can you downgrade it to well? He has played great. I'm positive of that. Oh, stop. It's not his best season. Come on. I said he had a bad stretch there. It's been for best season. Come on. He had a bad stretch there.

It's been for weeks like three to five, three to six really rough. Ah, it's only 40% of the season. Yeah, exactly. I only have two. Cool. But I can't trust this Chargers team

because of the pass protection liabilities and the coverage liabilities. They just have way too many gaps to be a real, legitimate, actually good team. And you've seen that now over too many games. And you didn't even mention the coach.

All right, NFC. Yeah, he's not doing great, too. So your team, a sneaky eight and one, but the schedule is going to get a little harder down this stretch. How are they a sneaky eight and one? Well, because you could tell me they could be nine and oh, you could also tell me they could be six and three. And all the Eagle fans in my life, I've never seen a group of people more unhappy about an eight-1 team. They lost to Zach Wilson. It was very embarrassing. It was embarrassing to my betting account.

Oh my goodness. I lost to Zach Wilson's Jets, my mom's team. If I could have beat one team this year, it would have been my mom's team. Lo and behold, we lost to the Jets. It was like four turnovers. It was a disgusting game. To start the season, they were playing more teams close

than they should have. They've definitely rounded into form in month two, kind of in the second quarter of the season. And as to be expected with a new OC and a new defensive coordinator. They're a little bit more balanced, a little bit more under control. They know where their bread is buttered. They're a better team than they were. That

being said, they're not going to go 6-0 over this stretch, right? You can't go Dallas into Kansas City, into Bills, into Dallas again, into San Francisco, into Seattle, and just walk out unscathed. So we'll see how they rebound to some losses. We'll see how they play some tough teams. They're obviously very good.

They're obviously in control of the NFC. So long as they don't drop too many dumb games, they'll be in control of the NFC when they come out of the stretch as well. Plus 145 for best record. I would not recommend it. And I'll never personally recover from Hertz's 3rd-9 throw in the Jets game

right at two guys who flipped a coin to see who wanted to intercept it. The best record bet that I kind of like, and this is best record. This isn't just one seed. The one seed odds are going to be lower. But the Lions of Detroit

are 10 to 1 out of the best record. And you just look at their schedule and it's like, all right, Chargers, Bears, Packers, Saints, Bears again, Broncos, Vikings, Dallas, Minnesota. And then that's the schedule. The only game that they're probably

going to be underdogs in is the at Dallas game and the question is now that they're healthy I think they were banged up for a couple weeks there now that they're healthy is

is there like a 13 and 4 potential with them I think I feel like I'm higher on them than most people where are you I have lines written down for potentially best record as well

when I was doing prep for this. They have the sixth easiest schedule the rest of the way. Coming off of it, they had a top 15, top 16 above average difficulty schedule to start the season. They also get golf largely in domes, like at home and in domes over the rest of the way, which just when you start talking about late season Lions,

you just try to find the cold weather games where golf has to throw in like eight mile power winds and you know that they're not gonna be able to throw the ball that well. They're largely protected schedule wise in terms of where they're playing. So they have the potential to just keep pouring points, pouring points and pouring points. This is also going to be a team that I don't envision a Dan Campbell coached Lions team coasting in December. I don't envision that. This is the Lions' first time

being a good team in a long time. They're going to milk it. They're going to juice it up inappropriately. So they also, I think, know what home field means for them because of Goff's home road splits. You go and look,

there's a few quarterbacks in the league that are affected as more home on the road than Jared Goff is. And when we talk cold weather, especially, they know what it would mean to be able to play the Eagles, be able to play the Niners in their home stadium, as opposed to potentially playing on the road. Well, how about not playing in round one too? Yeah. You get that one seed, you miss round one, home, home, Goff's super protected. And the roadmap would be the Breeze 2009 Saints team. There it is. They never had to leave a dome.

Great. Yeah. the there aren't like home field advantage from a betting perspective not necessarily what it was five ten years ago ford field man lions fans will go out for a for a a home team lions team that's in the playoffs they've been waiting for that for a long time when brian johnson decided not to take a head coaching job and uh took the the lions uh oc job retained that 2023, he gave a great quote where he was like, we want to put a home playoff game in Ford Field. We're very oriented on it. He was like, I want to feel what that environment looks like.

We care a lot about this fan base. And so they're going to be going out for a top record. If they smell blood in the water from the Eagles, they'll push. And so I do think Lions 10-1 is a good luck for best record. They're plus 600 for NFC as well. One of the things I like about them, I feel like Laporta is going to keep getting better

I traded for him in one league I had him in another but I just feel like that's I think that guy has it as a real weapon especially as it gets colder December January type of stuff I don't know about Jamison Williams yet it seems like they run like the one play a game for him but compared to what I think

they thought they were getting versus what he's shown so far who knows but you know they have seen proud I just they don't help me in there yeah they don't trust him right yeah no I mean he's he's had injuries and he's had drops problems get the gambling suspension like there's just a lot of disconnect there I think which I really really wanted them to

push for a receiving option at the deadline and they didn't golf loves Josh Reynolds congrats That's awesome. They get Donovan Peoples-Jones as a late-round guy. I don't think that's the field structure game changer you needed. So it's on Laporta, who I agree Laporta's looked great. My number one takeaway

from Lions camp when I went there was like, alright, they're going to throw this by the ball a lot. They've loved him a lot. And then they're getting Gibbs activated. Potentially David Montgomery in the interior offensive line back from injury this week. Full-strength Lions with that rushing attack and with Gibbs being more involved as a gadget weapon, the way they talked about preseason, there's still a lot of meat

on the bone for them offensively. Totally agree. Who do you have in the New Orleans versus Atlanta death match to see who gets to host Dallas in round one? I did a bad thing. I had a lot of Falcons futures coming into the season. And two weeks ago, it was...

Offloaded? Saints bets? No, no, no. So I looked at them. I had Saints plus 200 two weeks ago. And I was like, you should just take it.

Just take it. But I've been defending the Falcons tooth and nail to shield. He's gotten under my skin. And so I didn't take the Saints bets. I didn't hedge. Oh, no. And here we are now.

Saints, big favorites. Falcons, big dogs. I mean, like, I'm not take the Saints bets. I didn't hedge. And here we are now. Saints, big favorites. Falcons, big dogs. I mean, like, I'm not going to touch this. I do think Falcons plus 210 is a nice price, but I'm obviously not going to take it and I'm not going to endorse it.

Once you lose to Will Levis and Jaron Hall into Josh Dobbs off the street in back-to-back weeks, I can no longer full-throatedly believe that you are a serious team. And so the Falcons have the infrastructure to win the South. They have the infrastructure to beat the Saints.

They have the infrastructure to win no matter if it's Heineken or Ritter playing. But I've been saying that for a month now and they continue to lose games. So at some point, I run out of faith. You could have a YouTube video of all the terrible plays the Falcons have done inside the 10-yard line. And I think the

video would be like seven and a half minutes long. I've never seen anything like it with this team. If somebody gets tackled on the two-yard line, which happened last week, and of course I had money in the Falcons, I'm like, oh, they're not going to score. They're going to figure out a way to go

backwards, and it's exactly what happened. Yeah, I remember I want to say it was like week five, week six. And I was like, yo, the Falcons are 500, but they're like 24th right now in red zone efficiency. And they're like eighth in the league in turnover rate. So once that normalizes, they're going to be fine. And now they're like 30th in red zone efficiency, like fifth in turnover rate. It got worse. I thought Arthur Smith was supposed to be like this offensive genius. How are they so bad inside the 10-yard line?

Here's what's really frustrating. When coaches are between the 20s, they just run their usual stuff, right? They run their classic stuff, and their classic stuff is really good. Now, the smart coaches will pull something out of their bag, like the 45-yard line, and catch defenses by surprise. Like, nice little change of pace. Once a coordinator gets inside of the 10, Arthur Smith in particular, that's where he's like, oh, nice little change of pace. Once a coordinator gets, like, inside of the 10,

Arthur Smith in particular, that's where he's like, oh, time to do tricky things. It's like, no, you have a team full of rhinoceroses. Right. Even, like, people say, oh, they give the ball to Algier too much.

I don't mind that they give the ball to Algier. Algier's a big guy. Stop with the Kaderil Hodge touches. Stop with the Johnnie Smith touches. Turn around, put the ball in the belly of the back. Be bigger than the other guys, which you built the team to do. And it works great between the 20s. Why do you stop when you get close to pay dirt? Desmond Ritter, when Ritter was starting, had one of the highest pass rates inside the red zone of

any quarterback in the league. He's a third round player, man. Just get the ball to the big guy. It's crazy because they do have the most talent but the saints are going to win the division can i interest you in a chiefs lions saints all to win the division parlay on fandle that's plus 105 oh plus 105 who kills that lions chiefs saints well Saints, but now I'm giving you them at plus 105 odds. What would have to happen for the Lions and Chiefs not to win their divisions? You'd almost have to have a Mahomes injury. I even feel like

if Goff got injured, I still feel like the Lions would win. I mean, the most legendary Josh Dobbs season you've ever heard of. It brings the Vikings to the promised land. This Vikings team is so tricky to figure out. They might legit make the playoffs as a seven seed in the NFC. Would you say their odds? Their yes

is plus 104 now. It's basically even odds for Josh Dobbs to make the playoffs. That's such a funny thing on defense where like the first few weeks of the season, Brian Flores, their DC, long-time head coach of the Dolphins, walking out here with like the weirdest defense you ever saw.

Their rate of sending at least six men on a pressure is more than tripled out of second place, right? And then their rate of sending only three men on a pressure is double that of second place. They're bananas. They are a kitchen sink defense, all or nothing. And for the first three, four weeks of the season, it was like, hey, that's kind of cute.

That's cool. Like, you know, make the best out of what you got, chicken salad, whatever. We're nine weeks in, they're like top 10. This isn't cute anymore. It's actually working. It's chaotic and it's nuts and it's liable, but it's working. And so defensively, they have teeth. They beat bad quarterbacks because they terrify them. And then offensively, Kevin O'Connell, man. I mean, just Justin Jefferson down, Kirk Cousins down, just lead a game-winning drive with Brandon Powell and Josh Knox.

They had one receiver last week. Something to see, man. It really is. It's great. I would actually have O'Connell for Coach of the Year right now because I'm dumbfounded by what they did. One thing on New Orleans, they're 5-4. Quarterbacks, they're going against the rest of the way.

Sal pointed this out to me. Dobbs, Heineke, Goff, Bryce Young, Tommy DeVito, or Tyrod Taylor, probably not Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and then Heineke again. It's the all-time bad quarterback souffle, which we have seen year after year is a recipe for a team to go 11-6 or 12-5 and you can't believe it happened. So, yeah. Easiest schedule left by Impredictable's numbers

is the Saints. But here's the tricky thing. The easiest schedule to this point in the season was also the Saints. Right. And they're 5-4 with some nail biters. And so it's like, all right, they have an easy schedule.

They should be fine. Dennis Allen defense, do whatever. But also like I've watched a lot of Derek Carr and I don't like trusting Derek Carr. It doesn't feel good. Well, that's why this Minnesota game this week, what's Flores going to do? He's going to send the house after Derek Carr

every single play. And guess who doesn't like having the house thrown at him? Derek Carr. We've seen it. I would be not the least bit surprised if it hit halftime and it's like three to six and Scott Hanson has not cut to this game once. It's just been carnage on both sides of the ball defensively. I like your Giants plus 280 for worst record, but can I tempt you at all with Rams at 26

to one? Yes, you can. I can. Oh, I can offer you Rams wrapped in bacon. Yes. Because I was on Rams are going to be really bad

this year preseason because I was like Stafford's coming off this elbow injury. He's coming off this back injury. He's not going to be able to play. They're going to put him in bubble wrap

put him on the shelf. They've been thinking about trading him. They don't know about the contract. They want to move forward to the future. And then Stetson Bennett stepped away from the team. Okay, they don't have a QB2 now.

Stafford walks out. They're playing pretty good. Pukunuku is a sensation. All right, I called that one wrong. Well, here we are at the halfway point, and Stafford's got a thumb injury. And I don't know if they want to bring Stafford back out here and continue to push.

Maybe they're trying to go for an early first-round pick. The Rams own their first-round pick. They have it. They can use it. If they lose games, they get the pick. Another team doesn't get it. It's been years since 2016 since they have it. They can use it. If they lose games, they get the pick. Another team does it. It's been years,

since 2016 since they have this. And so we'll see. If they are putting Carson Wentz out on the field, presumably they're trying to stay competitive, but this is Carson Wentz. And they lose three games and we'll see what they do.

Bye week this week, home Seattle. At Arizona, is going to be the swing bet for this. Because if they lose to Seattle, it's going to be the swing bet for this because if they lose to Seattle, then Kyler Murray beats them. Then they go Cleveland,

Baltimore, Washington, Saints, Giants, Niners, I mean, they can throw away the last six. All right, before we go, give me one more NFC future. I wrote down Cowboys 500

plus 500 to win the division, which is not like, it's just too big of a price. They should be closer than that. I don't think they're going to win the division, but I was surprised to see that just too big of a price. They should be closer than that. I don't think they're going to win the division, but I was surprised to see that that number was that big.

I'm not going to, I'm not going to take that. I'm not too, too concerned about that. Christian McCaffrey, lead league in rushing touchdowns plus 300. Dallas was plus 20,

or I'm sorry, 20 to one for best record. I wrote that one down. I wouldn't bet it, but I thought like, all right, there's a world where they beat Philly in the next

game and maybe Philly goes, you know, somebody goes 13-4, the other goes 12-5. I don't know. 21 seemed like decent value. They need, I think, a little Philly implosion, which you can look at because Hertz has this knee thing that's going on, so it's not like there's no shot for it.

You mean the thing where he looks miserable every time he runs for 10 yards and has to walk back to the scrimmage and limps? Objectively limping all of the time. I've noticed the limping. Yeah. I think that some Eagles fades make sense.

Cowboys plus 500 to win the division to me is the safest one. I think it's a reasonable one. I do like Christian McCaffrey lead league in rushing touchdowns, which is plus 300. He's second on that odds right now. Raheem Mostert is two touchdowns ahead. He's got 11. He's plus 190. But A-Chain's coming back.

A-Chain's coming back and Jeff Wilson is back. So the running back room is at full strength. Raheem's obviously played great. They are... I'm not convinced he's going to be a short yardage back for them. He's going to be the goal line back for them. So this is all who scores way out from distance, right? When they get these big long runs and they certainly trust Raheem,

but I think they're going to get A. Shane to be a lot more active when he comes back from injury. So I wouldn't be surprised if Raheem's numbers get cut down. Well, we know for a fact, Niners get the ball inside the five, their final way to get the ball to McCaffrey. It is rushing touchdowns. So you worry a little bit about receptions, but in general, they're very willing to hand get the ball to McCaffrey. It is rushing touchdowns, so you worry a little bit about receptions,

but in general, they're very willing to hand the ball off to McCaffrey and let him chug along. And so I do think McCaffrey plus 300 lead league in rushing touchdowns. I would say with Raheem's

numbers cutting down, that's a market worth looking at from a couple different player perspectives. McCaffrey's my favorite. All right, we're going to go. What is your number one cheese for Thanksgiving week?

Oh, man. To bring one cheese to somebody's house. one cheese for Thanksgiving week? Oh, man. To not bring one cheese to somebody's house. So I'll be honest with you, Bill. I'm trying to not put on as many pounds this season as I have previously. I've had night cheese twice

the entire season. One time it was diet baby bell, which barely even counts. It's not even real. Come on. So Thanksgiving, I guess I treat myself. But I haven't been buying

too many cheeses recently. I'll go. I'll get a good. I'll go something good. But I haven't been buying too many cheeses recently. I'll go. I'll get a good. I'll go something good. I'm seeing my pops for Thanksgiving. And he's coming off. He had a heart attack earlier this year. And so we're trying to not bring high cholesterol things.

Maybe I'll sneak in something good. Okay. That was a boring answer. I thought you were going to go with like an Irish cheddar. Like an aged 20 years Irish cheddar. Something like that. I'm off the cheese, Bill. I'm moving on. I'm growing up. I'm maturing.

I don't like this. Ben Solak, thanks for coming on. Good to see you. Thank you, Bill. Metrolinx and Crosslinx are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert, as trains can pass at any time on the tracks.

Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. After decades of shaky hands caused by debilitating tremors, Sunnybrook was the only hospital in Canada who could provide Andy with something special. Three neurosurgeons, two scientists,

one movement disorders coordinator, 58 answered questions, two focused ultrasound procedures, one specially developed helmet, thousands of high-intensity focused ultrasound waves, zero incisions. And that very same day, two steady hands. From innovation to action, Sunnybrook is special.

Learn more at sunnybrook.ca slash special. All right, Raheem Palmer is here. You can hear him on the Ringer Gambling Show. You can see him on the Ringer Wise Guys on Sunday, my favorite Sunday show. He's feeling good because the Sixers looked good last night. Yeah, I could see it. You're just like beaming.

Yeah, most definitely. I mean, after the Phillies disappointment, it's finally good to get somebody who's winning games. So it's great. At least you're fun to watch this year. Unlike the two-man game of just everybody standing around. It was a much harder team to play as I'm rooting for my own team, but we can talk about that another time.

You're going to help me do million-dollar picks. Last week, I won $240,000. I'm only down 1.69 million for the year. This happens to me right around week nine, week 10, week 11. There's always like a week of the year for me where I'm just like, man, I like a lot of games this week. I I'm seeing the chessboard I just feel really good And usually I open up When that happens I really like this week Raheem This is my favorite week of the year

I've had a lot of trouble Like just getting a handle on stuff Trusting bad QBs Being on the road With like oh yeah Zach Wilson I'll just do it This week

I'm in Where are you on this week in general? I'm solid on a few totals. I mean, it's NFL, so I never really love anything. It's just one of those things to where it's just like, I end up liking a couple of things

and then if it goes well, it goes well. But it's the NFL. It's the sharpest market in the world. Well, you're not as optimistic as me, but I'm going to raise your optimism as we go. Have you done this year for the most part? Are you a little up? Are me, but I'm going to raise your optimism as we go. Have you done this year for the most part? You're a little up, you're a little down, you feel good about the performance, sideways? My second halves in my lives are incredible in every sport. You've seen some of the tickets I'll show you. My second halves in my life,

they're just unbeatable. But my full game stuff is just up and down. Well, you and I are aligned on the Clippers to win the NBA title at 13-1 on Fandle being the single dumbest bet maybe in the history of futures. I just can't believe, like Fandle, just move that to 30-1. You're fine. Try to get more action on it. The Clippers aren't winning the title this year. They aren't. And, you know, I was like the president of the Clippers fan club, like for the longest.

I couldn't quit them. But when you add Harden to this team, they already struggle in transition. I mean, they're 19th in transition points added, and then they're 28th in turnover rate. They just have too many ways that they can lose a game, and then you have to deal with the injuries to Kawhi Leonard. So they're not winning anything. And they lost a lot of size on the perimeter. And I don't know. To me, their plus 200 have missed the playoffs. I really like that bet. I don't know if they're one of the eight best teams.

So I'm not going to go that far just because I do think some teams in the West took a step back. You look at the Kings. They look awful. So it's just... And the Lakers look awful. So I think they'll get into the postseason, but they're going to collapse at some point. Are you sniffing the Rockets a tiny bit here yet? Ime's doing a good job.

Ime's a good coach, man. I saw it firsthand. That guy knows what he's doing, and he gets guys to just give professional efforts on both ends. And Shang-Goon's a real guy now. Dylan Brooks. Dylan Brooks shot six times last night. Right.

Because what will happen is he may pull him after. He won't say anything to the reporters. He won't say anything in front of the team. He'll pull the guy into the hallway and he'll be like, look, man, you're going to shoot six times or you're not going to play. We're not fucking around this year. We actually have a chance to be good. I'm intrigued by the Rockets.

I don't know what the playing odds for them, but we could talk about basketball another time. Million dollar picks. I asked you to the Rockets. I don't know what the playing odds for them, but we could talk about basketball another time. Million dollar picks. I asked you to bring two picks. I'm going to throw seven at you, and we're going to whittle this down, but I think I'm going to open up this week. The first one, Solak and I talked at the top

about this Colts-Pats game in Germany. I think the Pats, for whatever reason, the market is still suspicious of just closing the coffin on the season and the team in general. They're just bad. And actually, I think the Colts have been a little friskier than maybe people give them credit for. I know it's Germany. I know there's a big Pats audience. But to me, it's a miracle this line isn't Colts by three. Right now, it's Colts by one and a half. And I really like the Colts. And I'd be surprised if the Pats won the game. How do you see it? So this is an under. I like the under on this game. I agree with you on the Colts. I just think when you, like, this team reminds me of last year's Tampa Bay Buccaneers,

where it's just you had sharp money coming in them every single week, and it continued to stink. And people just continue to buy into the mystique. They did it with Tom Brady last year. They're doing it with Bill Belichick this year. So I agree with you on the Colts. Okay. I'm going to put them in bold.

Lions Chargers. Well, this is the tough one. Seems like there's a ton of money in the Lions. It's at the Chargers, which doesn't scare me because I think there's going to be 45,000 Lions fans there. And I just don't think the Chargers have the home field advantage. So my first question is, if this game is in Detroit, is the line Lions by four?

I think it is. So why am I getting a discount of a point and a half in LA when the Chargers don't have a home field advantage? Second thing, Lions coming off a bye and they're healthy. We haven't seen them healthy in a while. I think they had some hard games early on in the season. They were banged up.

Now they got all the weapons back. They have a running game again. Their offensive line is in better shape. Solak and I were talking earlier. I actually think they're a dark horse. You want to think about them for best record and some, some long shot futures. Like they're interesting because they might go on a run and I don't believe in this chargers team at all. You guys had, when you did the Monday show, JJ was really high in the chargers against the jets. And I was like,

that's crazy. I don't think the charges are good. As it turns out, Zach Wilson was like, I got you, JJ, I'm going to do this for you. I just don't think the Chargers are good. And I look at like, to have this line under three is like a miracle. I love the Lions. So talk me out of it. I can't talk you out of it. When you look at this Chargers offense, their 20th in success rate. And you look at, since they lost Mike Williams to a torn ACL, they lost Joshua Palmer.

That offense is a mess. They scored 13 offensive points the other day, and they got three fumbles. I mean, they recovered all three fumbles, so they just were lucky. So I think this is a smash spot on the Lions. If there's one thing that I would be concerned about, it's still that Lions passing defense. But I agree with you.

Under three, I like the Lions. Okay. So we have two. I hesitate to bring this up because it the Niners minus three over the Jags in the early part of the week I was like oh Jags at home

Jags plus three that'll be a nice one then I started thinking about it McCaffrey's back Debo's back this Niners team this is a nice spot for them to maybe send. They've kind of been shoved off to the side, right? They're five and three, the Purdy, all that dialogue started. And it's like the Niners now don't seem like they're in the conversation in the way that

they were four weeks ago. Now they got everybody back. The kind of style that they have offensively seems like a style that Jacksonville's had issues with, like that zone running game and stuff like that. And I like the Niners spot here. And it makes me nervous, but I also don't think the Jags really have that great of a home field advantage. It's like, oh man, we're going to Jacksonville. I don't think it matters. So this just feels like one team's really good and the other team's not as good. Why not lay the three? What scares you about Niners minus three? What scares me about this game

is that my model makes this a pickle. Oh, okay. That's good information. But there's going to be sharp money on both sides of these games. So sharp money already hit this when it was below three. And I think that was the right move

when you get Trent Williams back, you get Debo back, you got a healthy Christian McCaffrey. I think it was the right move to play it under three. But if this goes to three and a half, I think you're going to have Sharps on the other side as well.

I'm personally staying away from it just because I just got the sneaky feeling that Jacksonville was better than what people think. But I'm not mad if you take it under three. So how does your model do it if like they lose, Jacksonville doesn't than what people think, but I'm not mad if you take it under three. So how does your model do it? If like they loot Jacksonville, doesn't have their left tackle for Ford for again, the first four games of the seasons. Right. And then he comes back and it's just like two different teams, basically. Like when we see this a lot with football,

where it gets to week nine, week 10, and it's like, all right, this team was this for four games, but now they're kind of this. So how do you reconcile that with the model? My model is at the team level. So I do have to make a lot of manual adjustments, but it's weighted towards more recent data as well. Got it. Yeah, but then I have priors in. So just because football is such a small sample size,

I still have stuff from last year. And so it takes into account of everything. All right. I'm going to take off Niners Jags. I like the Niners, but it's one of those where you're like kicking yourself after no matter who you take. There's some weather issues as well. It's supposed to rain out there as well. Titans at the Bucks. Titans are getting one and a half. We talked with Ben about, you know, we've seen Vrabel do stuff like this,

where it's like, oh, that team looks dead. They come back. Or, oh, that team's overachieving. It feels like they're in an overachieved spot if Will Levis is way better than what they were getting with Tannehill, which it seems like he is. He can throw the deep ball. He got Hopkins going.

And I don't think Tampa's good. Like, the fact that they just couldn't stop Houston at all down the stretch of that game, even when Stroud had the ball with 50 seconds left, the game's done and Stroud still brings them down and scores again. I don't know what's happened to them, but I think this is a nice spot to just grab a team

that I don't feel like is totally out of it yet, especially in the AFC where nine and eight could get a seven seed versus a Tampa team that I just don't see it. What do you see with this game? So I hate Tampa as well. And I faded them last week and I got burnt because the kicker got hurt. So that was very frustrating for me, like extremely frustrating for me. But I think the biggest thing is that this Tampa defense isn't what it was. I know Jamel Dean, he got banged up last week. He had a concussion. And I think that led to the Texans driving the field and scoring that touchdown.

The biggest thing is with Tampa is that they tend to run on early downs so much and it just puts them behind the eight ball. The tight neither one of these defenses are any good at all. So it's hard for me to trust Will Levis in this spot against a Tampa defense that's going to blitz a lot. When you look at his passing rate and under pressure, he's a 74 passing rate under pressure. When he's clean, he's 113. So Tampa doesn't generate a lot of pressure, but they're going to blitz a lot. So I don't know what to do with this game, I'll be honest with you.

Tampa, 21st in DVOA. Tennessee's 19. But the thing I like about Tennessee, I feel like if they get the lead, you feel great, right? If it's 10-3 Tennessee, you're like, all right, here we go. Now they're going to start running Henry.

Now they'll play action, go deep. I think I might talk myself into Tennessee in this one. I think it's a good teaser spot. I mean, you know how House loves to play those teasers, and then you have a low total of 39. So those points are even more valuable

in this situation. Interesting. So we could potentially put them that could be the team to go with the Ravens because I am teasing the Ravens this week. We got to find a second team for that. Okay. Steelers, Packers. I think the Packers stink and they're poorly coached and they beat the Rams last week because the Rams didn't have a quarterback and the Steelers who are five and three, even though they could have lost all of those games. I'm just a believer. I just think they get the shit done. And this is a good coach against a bad coach. And I just think they're better. And this will be the week people are

like, holy shit, the Steelers are going to go 10 and seven or 11 and six. I can't believe it. What scares you about the Packers, if anything, in this game? It doesn't like The Steelers stink. They're 5-3, and they've been out-gained in every single game this year. They're basically winning with voodoo. Listen, you can't question voodoo, Raheem. You should know this. This happens. This was Minnesota last year. We kept waiting

for it to turn. It never turned. So I think you can... I mean, I just don't... From a numbers perspective, I don't want to lay the three with the Steelers, but the Steelers are likely going to win this game the same way they do every other game. Like the Packers, they stink. Like Jordan Love can't throw a five yard out.

And like they were struggling against the Rams with Brett Whippen last week. So I can't be mad at you for taking this pick, but just from a numbers perspective, I have to stay disciplined and stay off of it. I think you're going to have sharps on the Packers. Can I give you one more thing to wet your beak on this one? Yeah. On the road in Pittsburgh against TJ Watt, Tomlin, the crowd, the whole thing, and I'm going to war with Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur.

Those are my two guys in that atmosphere. Just think about that. I'm going to end up talking myself into it. Next one. New coach theory still in effect with the Raiders playing the Jets. The Raiders right now, the line is plus one at home. They are home dogs against Zach Wilson, who is such a disaster that Robert Sala was asked

to comment about why he's still starting Zach. And he basically said, I don't want to talk about this. I'm just, it was like watching somebody on the stand who saw a murderer and just was like, I plead the fifth. I just, this is a rare chance to bet against Zach Wilson again. I don't know how many more of these we have. And I actually think the Raiders, the coaching situation obviously just murdered their season. They've talked about it openly.

They've talked about it as openly as I can remember a team being like, yeah, we hated our coach. It was so, they like, did you see that quote where they asked Devontae Adams, why were you smoking cigars after you won this random game? And he's like, because it's been miserable in here.

And this is the first time we've all been happy as a group. I read stuff like that. And I'm like, wow, why isn't this line Vegas by two and a half? I am grabbing the plus one unless you talk me out of it.

You can't do, you can't bet bait Aiden O'Connell against this Jets defense. The Jets have the best unit on the field. It's their defense. How dare you besmirch my guy, Aiden O'Connell. Did you see him in the first half last week just throwing darts? I did. Throwing BBs?

He looked good in the preseason, and he looked good against the Giants defense, but this Jets defense is for real. Max Crosby against Zach Wilson? It's ugly, but I would have to take Zach Wilson here. So you think the Jets defense can single-handedly beat the Raiders? This is one of your picks. It's not my pick. Yes, but I think they have the best unit on the field. And I think you're getting value on the Jets because of

what happened last week. Because of the primetime spot, because the new coach. I just think there's no reason why they should be a pick. Well, I'll give you a couple of reasons. The Jets, since week two, they scored 10 points against Dallas. They scored 10 points

against the Pats, 20 against the Chiefs. They put up 31 against Denver. That was their biggest offensive explosion. 20 against the Eagles where they got four turnovers. 13 against the Jets in a game that really it should have been seven and the Giants blew the game at the end and then six last week. How did they even get to 14 points against the Raiders? It's the Raiders defense. So that's it. Yeah, I think I mean, this is a

defense where the Jets should be able to run all over it. I think the Raiders 30th and Russian success rate on defense. What about the new coach theory? It works for one game. Jets should be able to run all over it. Like, I think the Raiders, 30th and Russians, I can't believe you're talking me out of this. What about the new coach theory? It works for one game. You might be right. All right, the last one I had.

Man, you really just took Aiden O'Connell to woodshed there. You basically said there's no way he can win against the Jets defense. You're right. Jeff Saturday last week only worked for one game. Broncos plus seven and a half at Buffalo. I love it.

Okay. Do you want to go through all the reasons or no? Well, I think the biggest reason is that when you look at Sean McDermott, he basically has like a governor on his offense

to protect the defense. And then when you look at what the Broncos defense has done, weeks one through four, 32nd in DVO way. Now they're 17th in DVO way. So they've improved drastically. By the eye test too. They just seem like they're playing harder and getting stops finally.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills defense is going the opposite way. They lose Trey White. They lose Matt Milano. Like, they lose a bunch of guys, and they've gone from third in DVOA to 32nd. They can't stop a nosebleed. Yeah. So you like the Broncos, the plus seven and a half,

or do you think that's a teaser? I like the Broncos. I wouldn't tease it just because, I mean, I'm really strict on the Wong teaser rules. Yeah. But I do like the Broncos plus seven and a half. Okay. So we have Colts, Lions, Steelers, Broncos, and some sort of Ravens teaser. I told you to bring two picks. Did we use one of your picks yet? No, we didn't even talk about them. I have a total. Well, I actually have two games for one. And then I actually have three picks. But let's go with the Saints Vikings under 41 and a total. Well, I actually have, I mean, I have two games for one and then I actually have three picks, but let's go with the Saints Vikings under 41 and a half.

Okay. This is the year to under. Unders are 83, 52, and one, 61%. You and Warren Sharp had a good conversation about this. Yeah. Pretty weird. Like, just like,

it was an aberration that just turned into the season and you guys laid out all the reasons why. But I really like this under, I mean, when you look at, you know, both of these teams struggling in the red zone, Vikings 23rd in red zone TD percentage, Saints 28th. But you look at this Vikings offense, there's no way in the world the Saints are going to let Dobbs just roll to his right and find open receivers all game long like Arthur Smith and the Falcons did. The entire offense is basically in the hospital. Justin Jefferson injured. KJ Osborne concussion. TJ Hockinson, rib injury. Left tackle,

Christian Derisaw missed the last week's game. He could be out. Cam Akers is now out for the season and they can't run the ball. Alexander Madison, 3.6 yards per carry. And the Saints are like top 10 in every defensive category. DVOA, EPA for play, success rate. So I just don't see where the points are coming from. And honestly, I like the Saints as well. Minus two and a half. It's up to minus three on Fandle, unfortunately.

I still like that under though. I still like the under. Can I talk you into adjusting the under, which you're allowed to do on FanDuel to like, what number would get you titillated? 48 and a half, 46 and a half. So I'm not big on,

on teasing totals, but if you're going to tease a total, I think you want to, you know, we're doing a money parlay. Oh, we're doing a money line. Saints money line.

And we'll do some adjusted under. So how high do you want to go? We could tease it to like a key number, like a 44. I mean, if you want to tease it to 49, I'm good. Like, I mean, getting those key numbers are key if we're going to tease it. Okay. So we can do Saints money line with under 48 and a half is plus 109. I love it.

Okay. Yeah, I love it. I like it too. The other pick I had was the Ravens, which I know you had already. Okay. So who are we teasing the Ravens with then? I think we could go with, I like Seattle. I think this is a

great spot for Seattle. Like I would either go with Seattle or I know you said you like the Titans, but I think the Seattle Seahawks are just, this is a prime bounce back spot, especially if they got blown out last week. Washington is on their second straight road game. They should have lost to you guys last week. They should have. So Washington sucks because I watched it firsthand for three hours. I guess my only fear with throwing Seattle on a tease is what is going on with Geno Smith this year? And can they block? I mean, you know what I always say. It's only so long fake dogs can pretend.

I just never thought Geno Smith was that guy anyway. So I mean, but this is the defense where he should be able to bounce back. So you like Raven Saints? Yeah. I'm sorry. Raven Seahawks as a tease. Yeah. I mean, look at who he's faced the last two weeks.

He's faced two of the top five defenses. Baltimore has the number one scoring defense in the league. And then before that, he played the Cleveland Browns. Okay. So we have that line is now six and a half. Beautiful. Okay. Alright, it's time.

So we're dumping the Titans officially. Okay. Yeah. Definitely Seattle. But I'm saying just in general, no Titans money this week. Yeah, I just don't have a good read on the game. Yeah. All right, here we go.

Million dollar picks for week 10. Down $1.69 million. And as I said, this is my favorite week of the year. We're opening up. We are going, what do you think, 400K a game? Yeah, why not? Let's go big. Why not, 400K a game? Yeah, why not?

Let's go big. Why not? 400K a game. First one, Colts minus one and a half in Germany against the decrepit Patriots. I can't believe this line isn't three. We're grabbing the extra point and a half. Lions minus two and a half at the Chargers. Can't believe this line isn't four.

Getting value there. Love the Lions. We're both all in on the Lions. Are you worried about them for the one seed at all with your team or no? Because you got the Eagles, Cowboys, Lions are going to be the three. I think the Lions have a real shot at getting the one seed based on their schedule.

Yeah. Good value on that right now. Next one. You didn't condone this. I forced it on you. Steelers minus three Packers. This is a straight shorting of the Jordan Love-Matt LaFleur combo because that is about as sloppy of a team as we've seen this year.

And I'm just going to bet this Michael Myers infrastructure, whatever's going on with Pittsburgh, six to three. I guess one thing we could do with that is we could... Nah, I'm not doing first half Packers. See, I think you're right. I think you're right.

I'm not disparaging your pick or saying you're you're right. I think you're right. I'm not disparaging your pick or saying you're wrong on this because I think Jordan Love really stinks. I'm just being disciplined for the number. But I think you're dead right. I think there's just no way the Packers win this game. You don't think...

Could this be the game that the Steelers actually win the first half? That is very possible. Because it's plus 110 for them to win the first half in the game. possible. Because it's plus 110 for them to win the first half in the game. I guess that's not good enough value. It's not great value, but the Packers have lost the first half in like

every single game except for the Falcons game. And, you know, Desmond Ritter was like 0-11 in first halves. I'll stick with Steelers minus three. I hope we don't get screwed like we did with CJ Stroud last week, kneeling down up to, it was the right move

it just hurt my feelings next one, Broncos plus seven half at Buffalo this is a live dog, I mean you could talk me into the money line with this too and we'll see if the Bills have to have another players meeting in a week but we both like the Broncos Broncos just two teams

since the 70-20 game I actually feel like they've been pretty solid We'll just have to have another players meeting in a week, but we both like the Broncos. Broncos, just two teams. First, since the 70, 20 game, I actually feel like they've been pretty solid and they can run the ball too. Then this is your one. And I love it. Saints money line going against the Vikings,

a banged up Vikings team. And then we're going to T we're going to take the adjusted under to 48 and a half. The combo that is plus one Oh nine saints money line saints under 48 and a half. The combo of that is plus 109. Saints money line. Saints under 48 and a half. And then last one. Ravens tees. Ravens against the Browns. Browns offensive line banged up.

Ravens are much better. I don't know how many points Browns score in that game. Ravens tees with the Seahawks and Raheem loves the Seahawks in a bounce back spot. So we're putting 400K on all of those. This is my biggest week of the year, Raheem. Yeah Seahawks in a bounce back spot. So we're putting 400K on all of those. This is my biggest week of the year, Raheem.

Yeah. I don't know. I hope you're as confident as I am. I'm confident. But one thing I will say, next week we're going to sell the Ravens. This is a preview for everybody else because the Ravens play the Bengals on Thursday night football.

Oh, okay. This is the last week we can buy the Ravens at a good price. All right, Raheem, we can see you on Sunday, 8 o'clock Pacific Time, 11 o'clock Eastern Time. You, JJ House, and Cousin Sal

banging it out. Who's your favorite out of the three? Have you decided yet? It's definitely Cousin Sal. It's Cousin Sal because, I mean, he's the only Cowboys fan.

The rest of them root for losers. Right. I forgot that part alright good to see you Raheem good to see you too alright that's it for the podcast thanks to Ben

and Raheem and Howard and Michael thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti as well have an awesome weekend don't forget about

Ringer Wise guys on Fandle TV on Sunday enjoy the weekend. I don't have feelings with them. On the wayside, I'm a bruised soul. I never said I don't have feelings. On the wayside, I'm a person never lost. I don't have to be. Must be 21 plus in president select states.

FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Thank you. Indiana, 1-800-522-4700, or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana, mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, 1-800-GAMBLER.NET in West Virginia, or 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York.