The Bill Simmons Podcast - The NFL’s Coaching Carousel, and a Round 2 Breakdown With Peter Schrager and Joe House

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Peter Schrager and Joe House to react to the coaching news around the NFL, before previewing the divisional matchups and making their Ringer 107 picks for the ...week (2:14). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Peter Schrager and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Post your job today at https://www.linkedin.com/simmons The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by Expedia. You gotta love a good deal, whether that would be a quarterback on a short, low-risk contract who performs like a top-tier starter or Expedia's bundle and save feature, which allows you to combine flights, hotels, and cars into one package
Starting point is 00:00:15 for impressive discounts. Not just that, but if you remember, you can book an item now, add select items later, and still enjoy bundled savings. I mean, I think of this from a parent standpoint when I know that I have to go cross-country to go see my daughter in college.
Starting point is 00:00:33 And if I could bundle all the stuff to one thing, when I know I'm going back anyway, now that is a winning strategy. Book now with Expedia. The Bill Simmons podcast presented by Fandall Sportsbook. We are also presented by the Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchable on Tuesday. We do What Lies Beneath.
Starting point is 00:00:57 We have a really good movie coming out on Monday. Good meaning that we've been dying to do this one for years. So stay tuned for that. You'll be either pleasantly surprised or horrified. It'll be one or the other. This is my fourth podcast of the week. It's our first week on Netflix. We remain on video,
Starting point is 00:01:15 and you can listen to us on Spotify as well, and you can find us on any podcast platform you want. We will be going live on Sunday right after the fourth playoff game of the weekend, which is Rams Bears. Cousin Salon Obie here should be around 7 o'clock. We will be live on Netflix. for that and you'll be able to listen that one right after coming up here uh we're going to have
Starting point is 00:01:37 peter strager come back we have joe house still here we're a carcass from last week we got killed on picks it's fine we're going to talk round two we're going to talk coaches a whole bunch of other stuff next let's take a break pro gym and then boom let's go the bill simmons podcast is presented by fandul fendos got it all same game parlays quick bets for jumping in live they have your way go check out your way You can build the bet that fits your play, your way. Plus, don't miss out on the NFL playoffs. One of my favorite times of the year all month long. Download the Fando app or head to fandole.com slash BS to get started.
Starting point is 00:02:15 Get ready for the playoffs. Let's go. Must be 21 plus president select states, 18 plus in D.C., Kentucky, and Wyoming. Gam, call Win a hundred gambler. Visit RG-HALP.com. Call 88879-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, recording this late afternoon Pacific time. Joe House here, as always, as we continue the carcass.
Starting point is 00:03:03 That was our Ringer 107 pick season. I like it at this point. I'd rather with picks either be terrible or good, and we've been terrible this year. Peter Schrager joining us. He's been doing media, I think, for 48 straight hours. I've seen them on every ESPN channel. Just Tom and Harbaugh. He's just on rinse, lather, repeat.
Starting point is 00:03:22 Tom and Harbaugh, Tom and Harbaugh, Tom and Harbaugh. Why was this such a big deal? Which one? Both of them? Just the combo of it. It felt like this end of an era, start of a new era thing. But meanwhile, neither guy had won a playoff game. Well, Tom and I had won him. He lost his last seven.
Starting point is 00:03:40 Harbaugh hadn't made the Super Bowl since when? 2013. Yep, since the Superdome. And yet it was, everyone was reacting like this. Like, do these guys have anything left in the tank, in your opinion? to be Super Bowl winning coaches. Interesting because as everyone was doing flips on my ESPN networks today, and hello to the Netflix audience.
Starting point is 00:04:02 I'm happy if you're watching Emily in Paris. I'm here now. This is good. As everyone was doing flips about the Harbaugh, someone in the NFL, a very trusted source, texted me and goes, I could have sworn you were all doing the same flips about Pete Carroll last year when the Raiders hired Pete Carroll.
Starting point is 00:04:22 And they thought that that was the culture guy and that was going to bring stability. And I said, it's a little different. It's a little different in that Harbaugh is 11 years younger than Pete Carroll. And in this case, like, he is what the giants actually need. Such turbulence there over the last five, 10 years. And this is almost, I don't like saying, I didn't want to say this on air on television
Starting point is 00:04:47 because it's almost goes to like a dark place. But John Mare is sick. like John Mara, the owner of the Giants, is sick in a way that in this move is like him putting his flag down saying, okay, whatever happens over the next however long, like we know this franchise is at least in capable hands. And we know that John Harbaugh is going to at least instill stability and install a professionalism and a culture of discipline winning Giants football that is what those fans have always known. whether it be Coughlin or Parcells or even Dan Reeves. Like there's always been that, that senior voice, that leader,
Starting point is 00:05:29 that guy who's been there, done that before even getting there. You mean the fans over 18 years old? Yeah. I mean, that's... Sorry, I hate the Giants in SOTUS House. No, just they haven't been good in 11 years. I've been fine with it. I've enjoyed it.
Starting point is 00:05:48 It's like, oh, the Giants fans are so used to this. It's like, there's. There's Giants fans in high school who have no recollection of anything good happening with this team. So it's been a while. I guess this is my point. And the counter to Harbaugh, which there's many, like I'm telling you, my phone lights up when I go on these ESPN shows with people in the league who are like always just quick to tell me I'm wrong.
Starting point is 00:06:08 So as I was praising the hire and saying why this doesn't necessarily work for seven of the nine or not seven of the eight teams, Giants made sense. Giants need this. That franchise needs this. someone said he's 63. He doesn't call offense or defense. He's, he lost the locker room this year in Baltimore
Starting point is 00:06:27 of a bunch of 20-year-olds who he didn't connect with anymore. And oh, by the way, for Mr. Special Teams coach and CEO, they blow leads more than any team in the fourth quarter. So what exactly are you getting? And I'm like, all valid, all fair.
Starting point is 00:06:40 The Giants, fan base, and franchise needed this guy at this moment. Well, you left out that the hiring of coaches didn't seem like it was one of his strong suits either, other than Mike McDonald's, who was awesome for him and a big reason why they were succeeding and now you're seeing him in Seattle. How, so you nervous of how about being in your division?
Starting point is 00:06:58 Yes, definitely, especially with that Giants roster. I mean, on both sides of the ball, there's talent. I've enjoyed the ineptitude. And the thing that from the perspective of a Washington fan, they still have that GM, thank God. That GM is still sitting right there in the chair. Somehow he survived over all these years of ineptitude. But here's the thing, man.
Starting point is 00:07:19 they needed an adult and they hired an adult. Like that's the thing that's been missing. Dayball is awesome. And honestly, it's impossible, but the best move for the Giants would be to hire Brian Daibald as the offensive coordinator. That would be a team that would honestly be.
Starting point is 00:07:38 Well, don't laugh. Like, so Daibol is actually interviewing or doing this on Thursdays. He's interviewing for the Titans head coaching job tomorrow. And I think Eagles actually makes a lot of sense for him. But Mike Kafka, who was the interim coach and the offensive coordinator last year.
Starting point is 00:07:52 Like, I got it from pretty good people. Like, he's still in the mix as an offensive coordinator for the Giants. The rare, like, all right, so I was offensive coordinator, new head coach. And I was the interim head coach, but I still might be the O.C because Dart actually showed a lot of flashes with him. Everyone in the morning was like Todd Munkin's going to be his offensive coordinator. Well, Todd Munkin is interviewing for the Cleveland job on Tuesday, I believe, for the second time. It might be the Cleveland Brown's head coach.
Starting point is 00:08:15 So slow down with putting in who's going to be the coordinator as. But these hires, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, are almost as important as landing the plane with Harbaugh. I just said, I thought they were sloppy the last couple years. And I thought the stuff with Lamar
Starting point is 00:08:31 and the relationship was just strange. Guys, one of the best five quarterbacks in the league and everything about it seemed choppy and weird. I thought they blew just, I mean, how, how,
Starting point is 00:08:42 so many times did they blow games that we bet on? I mean, that's true, although I would push back, gently on the notion that they were sloppy last year. There were some regular season losses. Last year they were good. You're right.
Starting point is 00:08:55 The hallmark, but like they were one play away, and they were absolutely as talented, if not more talented than the bills. They just, you know, because they threw away a stupid Raiders game in the early part of the season last year. At home to Minchu. Ended up having to go on the road to Buffalo,
Starting point is 00:09:12 and it was a last play of the game, you know, kind of situation. And that's been the tale over the last half decade with this. Baltimore. My thing is it increases their floor. Right? Totally agree. Now it's like if they, if Harbaugh had been in charge of last year's team,
Starting point is 00:09:29 they probably don't have the record they have. I like that he's an adult in a city that's needs adults and needs, you know, figure heads. The whole, there's a couple cool meta, Brian Curtis sports media stuff. Oh.
Starting point is 00:09:46 The people that were, the people that were on it. were Ian O'Connor, who's not necessarily a Giants Beat writer, right? Like Art Stapleton, who's the local like New Jersey.com writer. And, you know, you've got guys who we, you know, don't typically get the day-to-day from.
Starting point is 00:10:06 And it was like, this is an old school coach, and he's got his people. And as we're tracking everything, what I loved about it was that in real time, it wasn't the 48, hours, let me show you how they got them. People were like, all right, they're at dinner at a restaurant in East Rutherford right
Starting point is 00:10:24 now. Or Chris Mara went and flew to Harbaugh's home and sat with him. Like, the chase was fun. This was like a cool ride for Giants fans. And as much as Joe Shane gets shit on and as much people think, Joe Shane landed this plane. And I know Money talks
Starting point is 00:10:40 and I know that maybe Harbaugh wasn't going to have 10 other opportunities. But to get Harbaugh to agree to do this before meeting with Tennessee, which from all accounts, we're going to offer them the world also. No state income taxes, no pressure. Cam Ward could have been an opportunity that was interesting.
Starting point is 00:10:57 It was pretty cool to watch this in real time from a media standpoint and not the usual players who are saying, here's what the latest is. Ian O'Connor, like, dusted off the old notebook and was like, all right, I'm going to be up to one in the morning working on this. Paul Schwartz from the New York Post was like, I'm going to be on this.
Starting point is 00:11:14 It had a kind of old-school chase to it. And from the journalism standpoint, from the spotlight or from whatever, it was like, all right, there is a place for media and this. And those Giants beat reporters did a great job on this one. And there was a piece about, I read on Sports Illustrated about the dinner and the wine cellar. In East Rutherford, a Mediterranean restaurant. That house, you would have liked it. They went off the menu with the dinner.
Starting point is 00:11:37 Oh, you know how I feel about off menu. Some stuff that wasn't normally on the menu. I think the hard about things fine. We'll see. We'll see how it goes. he's hitting that mid-60s. It's another young team, and if he had trouble clicking with the young Ravens,
Starting point is 00:11:52 I don't know why that would change with the Giants. So the Ta-Man thing was way more interesting to me because he's younger. I think he's a better coach than Harbaugh, and I think there are real reasons why he didn't succeed, which basically stemmed to the fact that they threw with a quarterback position for seven, eight years, ever since Big Ben started to fall apart.
Starting point is 00:12:09 I guess the question with that one is, he seemed to discount the quarterback position and never really even like when they could have drafted Jackson Dart like there was stuff in the draft they could have done. It feels to me, House, like he just needed a break. I'm excited to have him on TV. I don't know if he's going to be as good as everybody seems to think he's going to be on TV. I reserve judgment because I think he's coming back to the league.
Starting point is 00:12:33 Those guys always scare me. But it's like, I'll do TV, but I don't want to be too hard. But what's your dream scenario for Tomlinhouse? well TV for sure this upcoming season God we need that and you know we did a draft cousin Sal I saw that yeah and you know
Starting point is 00:12:52 the possibilities range from you know the new head of the defense department Department of War all the way to Fox and I think Fox is probably where he'll land but honestly BS you just raised a point that I am fascinated by and I have to ask Pete
Starting point is 00:13:09 because Tomlin will never tell the truth what was going on in the front office of the Pittsburgh Steelers over the last decade? Mike Tomlin didn't miss out on drafting Jackson Dart. It wasn't 100% his decision. The only quarterback they drafted was a tiny person with tiny hands. Why did they do that? And how have they missed over, like there's been good quarterbacks for eight years now? Yeah, but they were in quarterback, you know, purgatory because of the draft spot.
Starting point is 00:13:41 they never had that top 10 picks. When they took Coney Pickett at 20, it was like, all right, like he watched Pickett every day at practice because they share a facility with University of Pittsburgh. There was a comfort level there. But I can't blame him. Now, look, they had the 20th pick, I think, this year in the draft. They passed on them.
Starting point is 00:13:56 They took a defensive lineman. But, yeah, they passed on Jackson Dart, Shador, Tyler Shuck. Like, could they have taken one of those guys? Sure. Tyler Shuck was a tough on that. I mean, he went to the 40th pick. Yeah, but I think in his heart of heart,
Starting point is 00:14:11 They knew they were all in, and I had a good feeling that he had an assurance that Aaron Rogers was the quarterback this year. So again, I... That's fine. They could still take shock. I mean, we just watched... How about Perel Edmonds over Lamar Jackson? All these are fair.
Starting point is 00:14:27 I just felt like... I know he wasn't in charge of it, but he also had an immense amount of power. I'm sure they didn't want him to leave the last five years. And at some point, you got to slam your fist down and be like, I can't do this again with shit quarterbacks. What are we doing, guys? Help me out. What's interesting is the stuff that came out afterwards is that he handed his papers and he said,
Starting point is 00:14:49 I'm done. He walked away. And it sounds like the Steelers were willing to run it back maybe one more year and have that conversation. So whereas Harbaugh was flat out fired by Steve Beshati, who by the way, the best hour press conference I've ever seen. I love that. Give. And we don't have enough of him on television. He should be on a microphone more. But that said, where that's a firing, this one, Tomlin gives his papers in and says he'll do it. And he goes out with dignity. And he tells the team and you get the story today that everyone was crying and standing ovation, the whole thing. He's got two more years left on that contract. And as pleasant and as amicable as that was, the Steelers are a business.
Starting point is 00:15:27 And they're not just going to let him go anywhere. So he's going to have to sit out at least one year. And then next year, there has to be a trade to get him. Now, he was making more than $20 million a year to be. to be the Steelers head coach. And he's got two more years left on that. So, like, it's a, he's walking away in a place where I don't, I don't think he wanted to hear the noise anymore.
Starting point is 00:15:47 I think he wanted a break. I think he wanted to have a fresh start. And the media deal, I worked, obviously, with Sean Payton the one year he was away. You know, Mike McCarthy and I did the draft together this year when he was away. And it's amazing that these guys still, like when Peyton was gone for that year, he might not have said to any vitriolic things or done. made gone viral but like watching games with him like he is just he was just peppering everybody in that green room what are your thoughts on bryce young what are your thoughts on justin herbert
Starting point is 00:16:17 do you think that charger's job would be open like he spent that whole year navigating the landscape and getting as much what do you think of david tepper is that a guy i could work with what do you think of that like those were the questions i would imagine if tom one takes a year off next year will be a fact-finding mission and he will be the mike frable hire of next season where he He was away for a year, and now he will have all the information he wants. So should I have done this after I left ESPN House? Take a year? Just taking a year and just done the Fox Sunday NFL show, just branch on those guys and
Starting point is 00:16:49 been like, I don't know what I, I don't know what I have long term yet. Steak dinners. It just sounds great. A whole year's worth. It's basically like a gap year. You're like, honestly, I feel like you owe me. Because I would have been, I would have invited myself to at least two thirds of the courtship. I mean, scarcity is the most valuable sort of attribute, right?
Starting point is 00:17:10 And look at the coaching cycle we're in right now. There's still, what, six jobs to get filled? Eight. Eight. Eight. And there's not exactly Ben Johnson and Mike Frable on the market. And we're talking about teams are going to be fighting over Jeff Halfley and Jesse Minter.
Starting point is 00:17:27 No offense to those guys. But that's where we're at. Also, I would add, with the gap year and the year away, like Bashati said something interesting. He said to John Harbaugh, hey, you're 63, you like to travel. Your wife, you know, you guys are in your 60s and your daughter's in her 20s at law school.
Starting point is 00:17:47 You like, use this year because five years from now when you're 68 or 10 years from now when you're 73, you won't be able to travel like you want to. You won't want to do these things. Tomlin walking away now, perfect time, come back refreshed, and truly already will be the bell of the ball for the next head coaching opening.
Starting point is 00:18:06 It's tough because if you're a Steelers fan, hard to feel good about the rest of the decade. Right? Tom, it's like, okay, guys, we'll see it later. It went all in this year. Yeah, this is like the guy selling the house that he knows that there's all kinds of shit in the basement and there's black mold in the bedroom.
Starting point is 00:18:24 And the neighbors are about to do construction and there's 90 things that are about to happen. And he's just like, I'm out. I wish everybody the best. Thank you. And he's just gone. I'll be interested to see where he goes. Not just for football, but for TV.
Starting point is 00:18:42 What do you think? Well, first of all, we have too many people on every show to begin with. So it's not like, oh, man, they need one more person on this show. I do think Fox could use, could maybe use a little Botox. In injection? I thought Fox was pretty brutal this year. I didn't really understand. I know Shrags.
Starting point is 00:19:03 I know you Shriggs is good a saying. This is tough for Shriggs, but I feel like the mix is kind of gotten stale on the Fox show. So I think that would help. NBC. When Jimmy left, NBC.
Starting point is 00:19:17 There's a coaching seat. Well, NBC, I think, the Sunday night show. NBC is interesting because then you could do the whole big announcement at the Super Bowl with 50 million people. You could roll out Tomlin. Oh, we got the Olympics. We're going to bring Tomlin, the Milan.
Starting point is 00:19:30 Like, he could be the shiny new toy for a little bit. But most times they go in the studio, whereas I don't actually enjoy it more if they knew how to do the games. And I know that games are really hard to just get thrown into, but I think that would be really fun to hear him break down different stuff. Well, this is, we've talked about this every time this happens, the Pat Riley NBC factor of you just grow in stature in the year off. By the time it's 12 months from now, it just seems like you're the biggest prize imaginable. maybe House's commander's job will be open by then. Well, I don't want to divert us too much,
Starting point is 00:20:06 but this Brian Flores defensive coordinator thing really has my attention. You like it? And would that be a head coach in waiting potentially if this Washington team does not perform up to standard? They just got rid of, they just parted ways with Cliff because they felt like,
Starting point is 00:20:23 hey, can we have people who are going to be here for a few years? Why would you then hire Flores for one year? Oh, no, no. It would be for longer than one year because he's the next head coach. That's not awkward or anything. Yeah. That doesn't. Come on. What do you think of, what do you think of 30-year-old David Blow who's never called a play at any level? I'm not worried about that because we have lots of evidence. You know, every one of the most successful young, offensive-minded coaches in the NFL were here in Washington at one point. And they were all young. They were David's age. So let's go ahead and take a swing.
Starting point is 00:20:57 I've gotten to know him a little bit. He's, I mean, significantly younger than me, which is alarming. But, like, I don't think anyone expected him to be an offensive coordinator, but he is outstanding and, like, is one of those guys. Him and Davis Webb, who we both, we all watched, are both, like, these, like, quarterback whispers now. And they're basically saying Jaden and him had a great relationship. Let's just elevate him and let's go.
Starting point is 00:21:19 It's great. Listen, after Concanipple comes in age 20, does the BS pod for 75 minutes. Like, everything's just happening younger and faster these days. days. Third year a coach sounds great. They all grow up quickly. Yeah, everybody, maybe it's the internet gets everybody going on. Can I use that to throw out a name for the Cleveland job that's getting a lot of heat right now? Before you, hold on, before you do that,
Starting point is 00:21:42 I can't think of anything worse than the Cleveland job. I would rather not have a head coaching job. I would say, I would rather, I would rather just pass. Why do you say that? That's not true. I think they're terribly owned. I think they have not figured out their quarterback situation at to have this Deshaun thing hanging over them. And I just think that there's seven other teams I would rather be for the next five years
Starting point is 00:22:05 in the FACC hands down without even blinking. How am I going to turn things around in Cleveland? Good luck. Go ahead. I know there's a lot of former Browns employees who listen to this podcast. They're grinning right now at that whole comment. That's not why I did it.
Starting point is 00:22:21 No, no, no. Who's the worst franchise? They were in the last 13 years. They had one year and a third. 18 years where they were competent. Congratulations. Still a good defense. What I would say is we're talking about the young,
Starting point is 00:22:37 like that's the team that goes and swings for that super young coach because there are no expectations next year. They have this really good rookie class, whether you like Shador or not, he's part of it. But besides him, it's Schweringer and it's Fanning and it's Judkins. And they got all these guys. And it's a blank slate. So the two names that,
Starting point is 00:22:57 are getting a lot of buzz with them and comes from good sourcing. Grant Udinski, 30-year-old offensive coordinator of the Jaguars, and Nathan Schillhouse, no relation to Joe House, who is the number three on that Rams offense, who's 35 years old and used to coach at Iowa State. So, like, those two guys might not get to look anywhere else, but they might be the next head coach of the Browns, or they just go super young and say, screw it,
Starting point is 00:23:28 let's just go with a young, fun vibe. And by the way, Watson's stuff follows off the books after next season two. So there's a silver lining to all this at some point. I'd say I'd rather hire Mike McDaniel than any of those dudes. I think the McDaniel thing you could really talk yourself into it if you started it long enough, because Tua was just not a quarterback that you could do anything with, on top of all the injuries they had the last couple of years. And it was a weird situation to begin with.
Starting point is 00:23:55 I would rather, at least there were some proven stuff happening with him with DJ Mikey Max spinning his tracks. Let me ask you guys, because this was a good debate I have with someone today. Would you rather be the head coach of like the Cardinals or the Browns? Or would you rather, if you're Mike McDaniel or your Cliff Kingsbury, there are so many amazing offensive coordinator jobs open right now. So Detroit's offensive coordinator job is open, Philadelphia's, Tampa's. Are you better suited going to one of those teams with a,
Starting point is 00:24:25 established quarterback, the chargers with Justin Herbert, crushing it for a year. Or do you say, you know what, a head coaching job only comes around so often. I got to take it head coaching job because I don't know if anyone's going to have to choose between the two, but there's a lot to like about those coordinator positions. And there's so many negatives to some of these head coaching jobs. I have a take on this, but House, let's say you're a 32-year-old. You're not a red-hot coordinator, but you're definitely respected during the interview process. Would you grab the first head coach job that you could get and talk yourself into it?
Starting point is 00:25:00 Or would you play the long game and try to build your, basically build your fortitude for a year from now, basically, versus like grabbing something? Yeah, the credibility, the qualls. Yeah, I absolutely adore the Detroit opportunity. I think that's amazing. And that would be my absolute number one first choice without hesitation or reservation. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:25:24 over like Arizona head coaching job with no question with doubts at quarterback but here's the thing shrags no quarterback who's the quarterback who plays quarterback for for the cardinals can i be new coach conciliary for a second yeah please let's do that that's fun this is good who's your quarterback who's your owner that's it you can figure out everything else but if you if you're oh for two with those two things i'm out Arizona who's been a fucking bigger disaster than them other than them other than Cleveland, right? Arizona's, it always goes wrong with them. Jets would like to be included in the conversation. I'm saying out of the ones that are available. The Jets have a coach, at least for the next couple months. Raiders are kind of interesting. Yeah, but I would much rather have the Raiders job because at
Starting point is 00:26:08 least I have a quarterback in that scenario, right? And I have an owner. Is assuming Mendoza? Yeah. At least I have somebody that I can talk myself into. Okay. Okay. And Mark Davis, who's been a bad Raiders owner, but he's been a good WMBA owner. It's not like he's completely incompetent. Whereas the Browns, and he spends. And, you know, when he hired Pete Carroll a year ago, we were like, that makes sense. Pete Carroll, maybe he can re- Kelly. That's great. Yeah. We thought you, and Gino, like, that was a good risk, a good gamble. Yeah. So I look at it, like, I just wouldn't do those organizations unless they had this awesome quarterback. I'd be afraid to do the Tennessee one, too, because I think they're a mess too. Oh, I think their quarterback is good. But you
Starting point is 00:26:50 But you have KM Ward. That's what I mean. So with that one, it's like QB organization. All right, I can talk myself in a KM Ward. I'm sure Harbaugh probably heard stuff about the organization that made him be like, oh, I'll do this Giants thing. Biggest, longest NFC franchise we have, right? Them are the Bears?
Starting point is 00:27:10 Who's been around Longer? Yeah. Those two? Packers. I'm talking about it to my ass now. How do you rate the dolphins? Good question. I think that's a bad job.
Starting point is 00:27:20 job, right? That same thing. Organization QB. Well, I don't have a QB. Steve Ross has been not as bad as the Browns owners, but he's in the running. They've never won a playoff game. Yeah, they haven't want to playoff game in this century. So you're going to just walk in as a 30-year-old guy with no QB and turn that around? Probably not. I'd rather go to Detroit, build my shit up like Ben Johnson did, and then wait to strike for the, for the, like, if you're 30 versus when you're 32, Like, what's the difference? Think about the guys like, what was that guy? Rob Chisinski.
Starting point is 00:27:55 Yeah. Who took that Brown's job? The Browns couldn't find a coach. And they're like, all right, this guy. That guy's career was over after that. Like, nobody was hiring him after that. I wouldn't want to be that.
Starting point is 00:28:05 I wouldn't want to be like this is a career ender that I took this job. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to by Fandul, the divisional round. I call it round two. Where the NFL's best takes center stage and with everything on the line, Fandul is turning on playoff mode. More boosts. means more way to level up your playoff bets
Starting point is 00:28:24 than all customers are getting a profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day waiting for you right in the app. Fando will make some fast, easy, and fun to get in on a playoff action when your bet wins. You will get paid instantly. So visit fando.com slash BS and grab your profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day.
Starting point is 00:28:45 You must be 21 plus President Select States or 18 plus and President D.C., Kentucky, Wyoming. Opt and required bonus issued as non-drawal but profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wage, or amount, see terms at sportsbook.fander.com. Gamprom call 100 gamble or visit RG-dash-Help.com. Call 8887-8-89-777-77 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.
Starting point is 00:29:08 This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn. If you've ever hired for your small business, I've done this once upon a time. You know how important it is to find the right person. That's why LinkedIn Jobs is stepping things up with their new A1stown. A.I. Assistant. So you can feel confident you're finding top talent. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com slash Simmons. That's me. Then promoted to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates. That's LinkedIn.com slash Simmons to post your job for free terms and conditions. Apply. So each franchise is different. I've spoken to a lot of these candidates
Starting point is 00:29:48 who are interviewing for them. And it's funny, they're all on Zoom right now until they're they can meet in person unless they're fully out of a job. And like, I guess I haven't, like, Brady's very involved with the Raiders one. Oh, I think I'm allowed to say that. Like, Brady is, he was at this fanatics event. He was at phone, so phone calls from a St. Bart's yacht. That's what I'm saying. He's a fanatics event.
Starting point is 00:30:06 He's at Bakers. Yeah. But this fanatics event at the Intuit Dome. Hold on. I'm talking to Alex Cooper. I have to call you back. Alex Earl. Late.
Starting point is 00:30:14 And then all of a sudden, he's, you know, he's on a Zoom, you know, and he's very engaged and dialed in. Very engaged. It's great. That was interesting. I'm glad he's engaged. He owns a part of the team. He's leading the interviews.
Starting point is 00:30:26 All right. He's playing a big role. I was like, all right, so what's Aikman's role in Miami? Well, once they hired the GM, apparently John Eric Sullivan, who's the Packers GM, or was the Packers number two,
Starting point is 00:30:37 is now their GM in the, he's running the show, but Aikman's on these calls also. The, you know, each team is different. Like, who's in the room and who's got the voice? So I think owner and leadership and corporate,
Starting point is 00:30:51 structure and org chart are almost more important than quarterback. We'll figure all that stuff out. But give me a stable franchise where I know who I'm reporting to and I have some sort of base. Like that to me is almost more important than the quarterback. So would you say the giants are a stable franchise? I would because it's family owned. And those guys. So stable but incompetent?
Starting point is 00:31:15 Potentially the last couple of, yes. They've not had, they've not been competent the last few years. 10 plus years is incompetent. Stable with a lot of swings and misses. It went to the playoffs three years ago and won't a playoff. They were like eight eight and one or something that year. I get it. Come on.
Starting point is 00:31:33 Come on, Shrags. So, House, you're with me? On what? Organization QB if I'm over to, no way. Of course, yeah. I feel like we've had this conversation already. So the Washington job from two years ago, I think, has become more interesting because House ends up with Dan Quinn and Jane.
Starting point is 00:31:50 Daniels, right? Coach and QB spot available in that draft. Pat's end up with Rabel and Drake May, who easily could have both been the Washington picks. And then you have Ben Johnson who ends up a year later getting matched with Caleb, but potentially could have had the Washington job. It's like you could write a book about how all these like sliding doors, right? They were on the airplane. Oh, they were on the plane. That's right. And they read on Twitter an Adam Schaeffer report that he was withdrawing his name. And they landed in Detroit and found out that, oh, wait, he's actually going back to Detroit and they flew back home.
Starting point is 00:32:27 I mean, that could be Ben Johnson and Drake May right now. It's just weird. There's all these variables where it's like, whoa, way, oh. You know what the difference between those teams and quarterbacks is in Washington? Washington played an NFC championship game last year. You did. I did. So I'm okay. I'm pretty good. Amazingly worked out for everybody. Ben Johnson waits a year. Ends up with Caleb. Becomes a cult hero in Chicago. If they win this game this weekend,
Starting point is 00:32:56 probably doesn't have to buy a drink again for the next couple years. I think he's had a profound impact on Caleb. I based that just studying the locker room speeches and the demeanor of everybody. Yeah. The last one was one of the best ones last week. And then the very big. And then the very thing was a miracle that nobody hired that guy for a year. How about the fact he was with Cleveland last year? Yeah, just like, what was as a coaching special teams or something? No one thought to hire him the year before. Like, it's actually amazing.
Starting point is 00:33:28 So worst job is what? Cardinals? Cardinals is tough. Cardinals is tough. That's an uphill battle in a lot of ways. You're in a division with the Rams, nine, or Seahawks. You have no quarterback. Facilities are not.
Starting point is 00:33:43 Facilities are not with the other team. have like you're dealing with Jed York who spends like no tomorrow Stan Cronkey one of the richest men in America and then that Seattle franchise with the you know the Allen family money which is just insane so it's an uphill battle from the start you think the card knows you think they feed people on the team charter or is it one of those like just chips and spring water and soda I mean that's that was the Dan Snyder playbook yeah that's one of the things they do this is one of my favorite things like finding out like the cheap owners like some of the tricks they do Or if you want a T-shirt, they take it out of your paycheck, that kind of stuff.
Starting point is 00:34:19 Or like the one less bus where it's like some teams will have like a lot of buses. And the other ones, you're like crammed onto the bus. Like you can cut corners every single way. I think the Cardinals job and the Browns job are tied for worse. I kind of like the Vegas job. I do too. Yeah, I think, you know, the fourth-place schedule next year. The chiefs are going to be a mess.
Starting point is 00:34:40 Who knows what about the Atlanta job? I love the Atlanta job. You like the Atlanta job too. Why do you love the Atlanta job? Because I think they have a lot of good players. I really thought that was the best team that didn't make the playoffs. The funniest thing about the Atlanta job is that we basically have to say something nice about the quarterback situation for that to be as appealing as we. You just talked about it, right?
Starting point is 00:35:02 We intuit that that's an appealing job because of all of the talent on both sides of the ball. But they're going into the season with who playing quarterback. I think Pennix is a right-off. I know. insane? Penix is right up. So you'll appreciate this because I know you guys love like the corporate like how this doll. Okay, so
Starting point is 00:35:22 Rahim Morris thinks he's keeping his job. They lose that game. He ends up getting fired afterwards. Everyone's shocked. It turns out that that was weeks in advance. They'd already hired a consultancy firm that had already done all the work. Now this consultancy firm it's called sportsology.
Starting point is 00:35:39 They gave Arthur Blank like a book of recommendations on how he should build his franchise how the corporate org chart should be, all this stuff. And then Arthur Blank is like, you know what? I want Matt Ryan involved. Matt Ryan and I was involved. They do an interview for a couple other guys, but it was really Matt Ryan's job, head of football operations. And now sounds like Matt Ryan's the loudest voice that's going to be deciding all this stuff. It's like, it's just honestly nuts. I mean, the Brady thing is nuts too. These guys have never had
Starting point is 00:36:09 any sort of organizational anything. They were just quarterbacks. But, well, well, well, They've been there. They know the franchise inside and out. They know the market. You know, it's... They were the... I'm less dismissive than you. Bill, you're the same guy who hates the blue shirt,
Starting point is 00:36:28 khaki pants mafia. That you work for? What is that? You know what that is, right, Bill? Yeah. It's any of those middle managers. Yeah, the middle managers. The former giant company I used to work for it.
Starting point is 00:36:41 Well, no. I don't even know if it's that company. It's any company. They just show up in waves like coyotes wearing blue shirts and khaki pants. Office space. And they have generic notes for everybody. Hey guys, here are generic notes. You missed work yesterday.
Starting point is 00:36:57 I wouldn't say I missed it. So now you got Troy Aikman and Tom Brady and, you know, Matt Ryan, who are like, I actually have done it. It's, I actually respect that too. It's like, Matt Ryan, you've been on the set of CBS for the last two years. We need your thoughts on how to rebuild our football organization. From top to bottom. Come on in.
Starting point is 00:37:16 Go out. Here the car case. Please tell us what to do. I don't understand. I don't think this is that hard. Like the fact that Vrable was sitting there for an extra year, I almost feel it's probably like us with the Ringer 107 Picks house. We just stare at too much information and like you're the brain breaks.
Starting point is 00:37:37 And you can't just like step away from it and look at stuff logically and be like, I'm taking Trevor Lawrence against Josh Allen. What am I doing? I have to ask Pete, did the Titans put out some bad words about, did they let, you know, some whispers? Because that there was acrimony that led to that split. And Brable was always the, you know, we understood from our side of things. It seemed like he was the one that that should have outlived that situation. Yeah, in hindsight.
Starting point is 00:38:08 In hindsight. Well, not even in hindsight in real time. Let me speak first. Shregs is reporting that. I don't know if he wants to do or not. But he's a big outsized personality alpha. And some people don't want that in the building. I don't think Washington did either.
Starting point is 00:38:24 Like you get that guy. That's like your guy. The whole culture is coming from him. The Patriots don't care because they had no culture. Their owner is 85. Yeah. And they were like, fine, take this. He was there.
Starting point is 00:38:36 Yeah. And they knew him. Whereas like Washington. Why didn't you mention Washington? Because Washington hired Peters. They had, they had the, new ownership. I think Peters and Braves could have co-existed?
Starting point is 00:38:48 No, but they didn't necessarily need the awesome. They were together. But they didn't necessarily need the one-man culture show. They wanted to do like this group, group thing where a bunch of people are in and Dan Quinn fit back. Survival for these executives is always in the equation. And it's why Belichick got one interview. And it's why a Vrabel isn't for everybody.
Starting point is 00:39:13 because you're handing the keys over to Vrable. And I give Elliot Wolfe, who preceded Mike Vrable as the GM, a ton of credit for saying, you know what, bring it on. Reading the rim. Yeah, like this could save my job also if we start winning, because at the end of the day, it won't. And then today, you know, Joe Shane could have very easily argued for a 33-year-old defensive coordinator
Starting point is 00:39:36 because that means he's going to be the biggest voice in the room. Joe Shane is no longer the biggest voice in the room, but knows what's best for the franchise is to take. hand the keys over to a 63-year-old, and he's going to say, I'll do my job the best I can, but this is the new face of the franchise. Well, he wouldn't have had a voice if he didn't go for that. Can I just read you, Bob Kraft's house? No way you saw this. Bob Kraft gave an interview a couple days ago, and one of the things he talked about was Gerard Mayo's firing, and he said, he was talking about how tough it is, and he said, I would say that was one of the one or two
Starting point is 00:40:07 hardest decisions I've had to make, because the fire guy after one year, and by the way, It was very expensive because it was not only his contract, but 25 other coaches. It's the worst financial implications since we've owned the team. Oh, I'm sorry, Bob Kraft. You're like a freaking multi-billionaire. The team's worth $8 billion. You print money. We spent 50 million unspent money this year.
Starting point is 00:40:30 You're complaining because you hired the wrong coach. You had to fire him. I love Bob Kraft. Thank you for bringing us six Super Bowls. But come on. You can't complain about how expensive it was. You're the fucking owner. You've printed money from this team.
Starting point is 00:40:43 for 30 years. Just stop. We're going to take a break. We're going to go through the four games. We only have four. We have some great subplots. I can't wait to talk about them. So quick break. At Medcan, we know that life's greatest moments are built on a foundation of good health. From the big milestones to the quiet wins. That's why our annual health assessment offers a physician-led, full-body checkup
Starting point is 00:41:08 that provides a clear picture of your health today and may uncover early. signs of conditions like heart disease and cancer. The healthier you means more moments to cherish. Take control of your well-being and book an assessment today. Medcan, live well for life. Visit medcan.com slash moments to get started. All right, we'll go through the games in order, fellas. Same scenario as last week with the Bills, who are now one and a half point underdogs in Denver. And this all comes down to what is your appetite for betting against Josh Allen? Last week, it seemed like a great idea. I stand by the pick. I feel like Jacksonville lost the game in the first half, but they're hit a point in that game where every third and seven, you just felt like Josh Allen was
Starting point is 00:41:52 getting it. And it felt really dumb to bet against them. So House, why is this different this week? Why would this be different in Denver? Because Sean Payton is not Liam Cohen. I mean, honestly, the thing that we miss in the handicapping of that Jacksonville game is we did not spend enough time thinking through. We're so dismissive of McDermott. I think somewhat justified, like, the touchdown with a minute left that gave the other team the ball back with a chance to tie. Probably not the best decision in the highest leverage moment. So, and he's got a lot of those on his resume, but respectfully, respectfully, because I am a hugely M. Cohen fan. He just wasn't, he just wasn't up to it. I mean, you know, he botched the play calling.
Starting point is 00:42:42 And that Jacksonville team did exactly what we asked to them. Go run down the Buffalo's throat. Keep doing it. Never stop. Run, run, run, run, run, run. And instead, we're giving the ball to Trevor Lawrence. Now, good. I'm glad that we're continuing to build him up.
Starting point is 00:43:01 He is your franchise quarterback. Next season, they should be good again. But it's the playoffs, motherfucker. It's time to go win the football game. take advantage of your advantage. The advantage was the run game, and they didn't bite down hard enough on it, and they lost because of that, in my humble opinion.
Starting point is 00:43:20 So that's the question for me, Shregs. What do we throw out the result last week because Jacksonville screwed the game up, or is Buffalo in 2006 Pats mode, where they somehow made the AFC title game with Brady and Rishay Caldwell and Jabbar Gaffney and Ben Watson and Lawrence
Starting point is 00:43:40 Maroney and it's just like how did this happen? I look at the bills who now are down to Shakir Brandon Cooks who was in the league
Starting point is 00:43:49 six weeks ago Samuel who just came off IR banged up Kincade I think McCall Hardman I saw yeah
Starting point is 00:43:56 and Dawson Knox post some running backs Shavers out no Gabe Davis Dave Davis out and now they're missing two safeties and
Starting point is 00:44:08 No poyer. And no Harrison. Honestly, house. The line should be Broncos by three. And you're getting a point and a half just because of Josh Allen and it sucks to bet against Josh Allen. That's it. I can't think of another reason other than Bo Necks just shitting the bet in this game, which is the other thing you have to think about Denver.
Starting point is 00:44:27 Oh, shit. I took Bo Necks against Josh Allen. Why did I do that? I also, I saw a good, and they were underdogs to start the week. Now they're favored. They were the first number one seed in the AFC ever in the divisional round to be an underdog at home. They are the second ever since, and the only other one is the Eagles in 2017, who Carson Wentz had just gone down with the knee injury, so no one believed in foals. There's no reason that the Broncos should have ever been underdogs.
Starting point is 00:44:58 Now, they're favored by a point or whatever. The disrespect is out of this world for Bo Nix. And you've got to think, full two weeks, but really three weeks. because of that week 17, that week 18 game. Trey Lance. Yeah, that was an exhibition game. Been resting. Home field advantage out of control.
Starting point is 00:45:15 Besides the Jacksonville game, they didn't lose at home. So on paper, and they've got a Super Bowl winning head coach and Sean Payton, who is a master motivator and doesn't let these guys take their foot off the pedal. And they're healthy. And they're all healthy. Healthy. So it seems like their biggest problem is like Patrick Certain is awesome. Who do we put them on?
Starting point is 00:45:35 There's nobody left on the bill. Right. How do we use this advantage? We don't even have a number one receiver to throw him on. I say all this and I'm with you because you and I have rode the Mahomes train all those other years in the playoffs. And it was always the right move. This guy is Superman and it's his time. And he's been knocking on the door for years and the path is clear.
Starting point is 00:45:59 I can't pick against him, dude. Wow. Wow. I mean, we can get into the X's and those. I was expecting. I spent a year with Sean Payton and this guy's bill for this moment. Nope. Didn't do it at all.
Starting point is 00:46:14 I mean, you know the game plan. The bills just have to be close in the fourth quarter. And then let Josh be Josh. Hang around. That's it. That's the game plan. It's a fun game. Alan has five playoff losses. Ford of Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:46:30 One to Deshawn Watson, and who was good. Wild card round. That was an overtime game. It was like baby, Josh. crazy lateral. Yeah. An old timer.
Starting point is 00:46:41 My fears for this game from the Denver side other than Josh Allen. I thought there were some weird game management stuff with Peyton this year, as good of a coach as he is. And I think culture setter, motivator, all that stuff. There was some overaggressiveness at times, some just kind of do the thing you should be doing. To me, like I love RJ Harvey Harvey 90 plus yards. rushing in this game is plus 400
Starting point is 00:47:09 on Fandle. After watching that Jacksonville game where they should have had 200 plus yards in that game. I think they average 7 yards of carry. I just like just feed RJ Harvey have Bo Necks doing some design rollouts like just fucking run and keep the ball and don't let Josh Allen
Starting point is 00:47:25 have it and have these long ass drives. Then on top of it no safeties Cortland Sutton 30 yard pass reception plus 195 I like him hitting one. I think Denver's just it would have to be a collapse on their part combined with Josh late
Starting point is 00:47:42 right yeah so it'd have to be like that Jaguars game where it's half time you're like fuck they blew it they left all the shit in the table now I know where this is going they've also like Chicago have won a ton of one score games in miraculous fashion
Starting point is 00:47:58 and as we've seen time and time again sometimes that that stuff wears down towards the end of the season and it doesn't happen in the playoffs. So, you know, they've won all these games. They were winning at home. That Jaguars loss was real. They got beaten in their building.
Starting point is 00:48:13 And a lot of these guys, they're young still. Now, they played Buffalo in the playoffs last year. Bo Nix, they threw for 140 yards and completed 55% of his passes. But that was in Buffalo, totally different circumstances. I don't know. Is it their time? Might be. Or it's not.
Starting point is 00:48:30 Broncos. Yeah. I mean, that's, this is the fact. fascinating piece of it to me, right? If they run, then they don't need very much from Bo Nix. And if the bills play their standard like, you know, too high and they take away the explosives and they throw the to the sky's coverages, right? I mean, because McDermott is a good defensive coordinator.
Starting point is 00:48:54 Bobby Babbage is there, his call on the D. And like, he's really good too. Yeah, like they can throw a defense at Bo Nix that will sort of bottle him up. But if the Broncos can establish the run that you don't need very much out of Bow Nicks. You just need them to really not turn the ball over. Now, Bill, I heard you on with Sal and you said, you know, you're kicking yourself. But then again, the outlier is the Eagles Chief Super Bowl last year where we all took Mahomes because we're like, on paper it should be the Eagles. Did you not?
Starting point is 00:49:25 You took Philly? I took my homes. And the lesson I learned from that is if literally the only reason I have, is the quarterback and I don't want to bet against them that's not a good enough reason. Well, then you're taking Denver. I think I'm leaning toward Denver House.
Starting point is 00:49:43 Where are you leaning? Unfortunately, I already bet on Denver. I like Denver. I understand exactly the harm that I'm putting myself in front of. You and I have been terrible. Terrible. It's fine.
Starting point is 00:49:56 Everyone has a bad year from time to time. I still don't think that our analysis of the Jacksonville situation was wrong. And the Packers wouldn't listen either. We should have hit both of those. I mean, we should have had a minimum been three and three across the six games. You had New England pegged perfectly. Yeah, and then I threw the dumb under.
Starting point is 00:50:15 I know. It's my fault. I told us not to do that. I know you did. We took the, we had the Panthers figured out. That was a good angle. Stupid Packers. They had that game in hand.
Starting point is 00:50:25 Let's ask Shregs. We moved on too quickly. Who is Green Bay trading Matt LaFlor to? And what will he fetch it in return? so he could be a head coach somewhere. That's a good idea. He still doesn't have an extension. Now he's going into the final year of his contract,
Starting point is 00:50:38 which none of these guys do. Still doesn't have an extension. Oh, really? Yeah. They didn't fire him, obviously. Right, because they can get something in trade. New president, Skyhead policy, who's trying to put his imprint on things.
Starting point is 00:50:52 And the truth of matter is this. It's like they're talking about a deal. LaFleur is not one of the higher paid coaches. Like, there are some head coaches in this league that have been hired in the last few years. that make significantly more money than him. So he's got a point too. The question is, can we win without you?
Starting point is 00:51:08 Or do we just suck it up and pay the extra $6, $7 million that you think you need? That's going to be one that they have to decide. But time is ticking. Like, you're going to do this win. So I don't know. I think he stays, but I could be wrong. All right. All right.
Starting point is 00:51:23 House, Bo Nix, 25 plus yards rushing. Love it. Harvey plus 90 and the Denver money line. That's 12 to 1 is the same game partly. Let's go. that's it. That's how we're playing it. I mean, well, I'll take the L. It'll be the second week of going against
Starting point is 00:51:38 Josh Allen in the year that the AFC is the most wide open. It's been in his entire career, and he is the best quarterback in that conference, and here we are going against him. Two straight weeks. A weaker team than they were a week ago.
Starting point is 00:51:53 In a game, they should have lost. He's more banged up than he was. I just can't, I don't think they have enough. This is disrespectful to Denver to think that somebody can go in there with Shakir and Cooks and Samuel. So the thing we didn't talk about was could James Cook actually cook in this game? Because Jacksonville shut him down. Well, Denver's defense is really good too against the run.
Starting point is 00:52:17 And healthy. I just think this is a bad spot for Buffalo. And it's this, to me, if I had to pick the narratives, Buffalo wins. The narrative is, oh, my God, Josh Allen, this is your superhero. The other version is Denver just kind of controls the game. game beats them and then we turn into a they're not doing right by Josh Allen and we do that whole thing. Why didn't they get a wide? Yeah. This is their fault. They wasted a great John out, Josh Allen season. All right. So we're going to go Denver minus one and a half. I honestly think
Starting point is 00:52:48 that line is, is, I think this should be Denver by three. Okay. Then definitely take it minus one and a half if you can. Next game, Seahawks seven over the, uh, depleted 49ers who are, just losing guys left and right and are under attack by electromagnetic rays at their practice facility. Is an article ever gone more viral? No, it's amazing. Kiddle out. We've lost him.
Starting point is 00:53:14 Trent Williams playing, but just as like, I'm just not healthy. I don't feel great at all. Gave up six pressures last week. Yeah. I'm just not doing good. Seattle, two-week rest. Well, major news today. Killed this team.
Starting point is 00:53:31 And yet the Sam Darnold comes out of nowhere with a weird abdominal injury. Middle of the day on a Wednesday, Thursday. At practice. What are we? Come on. He's running with the theragon. It's listed as an oblique. And Clint Kubiak said in his press conference,
Starting point is 00:53:48 who's the offensive coordinator, that Drew Locke took a lot of snaps with the ones. Certainly. And I was with Orlovsky today in Bristol. And I'm like, I don't know enough about like each injury. I'm like, oblique. he's like horrible for a quarterback. Horrible.
Starting point is 00:54:03 It hurts to run. Every throwing motion, like it's as bad as one of the arm injuries. Well, that's why we have drugs, shrinks. That's what I said. That's something you can just shoot up.
Starting point is 00:54:13 That's why we have tore it all. I don't know. Can you get it? I have a question for you, House, Sam Darnold versus Drew Locke. How much of a drop-off is that for you? If I have a better defense,
Starting point is 00:54:25 I'm just going to run the ball and I barely ask my QB to do anything. So no joke. what do you think the line will be? Let's play guess the lines. What will the line be if Drew, Drew Locke has announced Saturday morning as the quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks?
Starting point is 00:54:39 I think it drops to Seattle four and a half. Yeah, five and a half, four and a half. Yeah. I think we go to the Vegas. Only a point in a half. Yeah, like two and a half. That's the difference between Donald. Because I don't think for this game.
Starting point is 00:54:53 So one of my ideas, you'll love this house, was a parlay with this game. I'm out. go ahead. Seattle Money Line under 49 and a half. No, sir. No, no thank you.
Starting point is 00:55:10 No. I mean, the bet I would really, we're not allowed to do this in the contest, but Seattle Money Line with Kenneth Walker to rush for 60 plus yards plus 109. Like that. I like that. We'll bet that.
Starting point is 00:55:21 I'm going to bet that. I'm not bet. The contest? No, but in real life, yes. I'm going to be talked out of it over the next four minutes. I just don't want to take the Niners.
Starting point is 00:55:30 I don't see it. I don't, I just can't wait how many injuries they had. We just did this. Yeah. I thought they got dominated. I thought that game should have been like 30 to 3. 174 yards of offense. It was the least.
Starting point is 00:55:45 Couldn't do anything. Kyle, a Kyle Shanahan offense has ever had. And by the way, if I'm Seattle and I'm their fans, like this is it, man. This is now lined up to win the Super Bowl, right? But wait, look who they'd beat. They'd have to beat, let's say hypothetically.
Starting point is 00:55:59 They're arch rival Niners. and then their arch rival Rams in their building. An absolutely beatable Rams team playing their third straight playoff road game, a team that they know really well. And then AFC, like, are they scared of any of those teams?
Starting point is 00:56:14 Like, they have the best unit of any, I sound like I'm a Seahawks fan. I'm just like, I just feel like this is laid out for them. They could easily fuck it up. But if I'm a Seahawks fan, I'm like,
Starting point is 00:56:24 holy shit, we might be able to win the Super Bowl, like for real. Our defense could just dominate the Niners, this round. We go to the next one. We get the Rams at home. Fine. And then we're going to play Bo Nix in the Super Bowl or, you know, this Pats team that has the youngest team in the league or Josh Allen with no receivers. Like I like my chances against anybody.
Starting point is 00:56:46 I want to try and make a case for San Francisco. I want to try. I want to see what you think about this. So first of all, it's not like Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers had an infinite amount of time to prepare for the Eagles defense. And yet he looked at Vic Fangio right in the face and said, eat this, big boy. Robinson, deep, over the top, twice in the first half. Nobody had him on the bingo card. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:17 Trick, trick plays. Reverse sky bang is what that play was called. Yeah. I have some ideas for that one. How's he trying that tonight? The circumstances are so upsetting for that. Scott, Netflix just canceled us. No, they encourage that.
Starting point is 00:57:41 But the question is, he knows Mike McDonald very well now, right? He's very familiar with what Seattle's bringing to the table. He's seen it. They had over the course of the two games that they played, played 17 drives on offense that were non-neal downs. Of those 17 drives, nine of them reached, they were inside the Seattle 40-yard line.
Starting point is 00:58:08 17 drives, nine of which landed inside the Seattle 40-yard line, and they scored a grand total of 20 points over those two games, right? There were missed field goals. There was blocked field goal. There were turnovers, all inside that 40-yard line. So there is a demonstrated ability for San Francisco to kind of get into the scoring zone, but they couldn't capitalize in any way, shape, or form. Again, I'm just trying to make a case here to make sure that we're thinking it through.
Starting point is 00:58:42 There's a couple more manifesto rules here for this, but where of the nobody believes in us team? That's the Niners and all flashing colors and neon. That's rule three. Rule six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe they have a chance to win. I can see them winning. I don't think it's inconceivable. More because the Seahawks offense, I could just see throwing a turd sandwich out there.
Starting point is 00:59:03 And it's just being like a 10 to 7 game in the fourth quarter or something. It was four months ago, but they beat the Seahawks in Seattle week one. Yeah. They've done it. I don't trust the Seahawks offense at all, right? If you can just like limit JSN a little bit, then they're going to have to run the ball. They have been running the ball and they've been doing it successfully. Like the last four games, they established the run.
Starting point is 00:59:25 That's why I like them heading into this podcast because I think they can run on the Niners. But then there's the win and doubt gravitate toward the one pick that screws over the most gamblers and experts. That's a Seahawks tease or money parlay. That's the logical bet. Everyone has it. I might even have it right now. I might have already done it. But people are just like, oh, cool, I can move the Seahawks down to one and then I'll do other stuff.
Starting point is 00:59:50 And that makes me nervous. Kyle Shanahan, to House's point, is a mad genius. And whether or not you think he's good in the late stages of a game or a Super Bowl or a big spot, no one prepares and out schemes these defensive coaches better than Kyle. So you're banking on Kyle and Purdy, who's been outstanding the last few weeks, with the exception of the Seattle game. And you're just thinking that they're going to find a way. Again, this is not X's and O's.
Starting point is 01:00:16 This is purely you're betting on people. And you're betting on Kyle Shanahan to out coach Mike McDonald and. And you're betting on the nobody who believes in this factor. And the nobody believes in us. But I would say this. There's one other thing you're betting on. Sorry to interrupt you. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:00:32 The Mike McDonald's, we've seen it a couple of times. The underwear gets a little tight for him. This is his first playoff game. Right? This is his first playoff. I'll take the points. And I don't know if I 100% trust him. Anyway, go ahead.
Starting point is 01:00:51 San Francisco has playing completely free. They don't blink. San Francisco's not wearing underwear anymore. They're just fucking free ball in it. You can tell, Bobby Salas swinging that baby maker every which way. And they are, I don't think there's more of a nobody believes in us team that we've had
Starting point is 01:01:09 that might actually be able to back it up in a while. And I would add, you know, they were pissed as hell at the leak. And I, by when I tell you, furious at the league that they chose ratings and the thought of a
Starting point is 01:01:26 Chicago and L.A. market Sunday night. It's fucking outrageous. It's over doing what's right and what's fair and what seems to be integrity of the game. Health and safety. All this stuff. You would think you wouldn't want a team playing on six days when they can play another team gets
Starting point is 01:01:42 eight days. So all that. But guess what? Jed York, John Lynch, Sala, Shanahan. They the players going. Hey, the league doesn't want us. The league doesn't think we're a big enough market team. They don't want us to be good. We're getting screwed again. We're getting screwed. And the players, they hear that. They respond and they galvanize. Now, whether or not that plays out on the field, that's a different question. But I know that the motivational tactics are at play here.
Starting point is 01:02:09 Well, and when you go back to that last game, Trent Williams didn't play in that game, right? Nope. Yep. Kittle played, but Kittles been in and out all year. And they, I do feel like they can replace some of his production. Oh, Tongass is a stud. Get every Tongus. He's good. Now. Pierce saw this week, they're hoping.
Starting point is 01:02:30 Pierce all goes. Fred Warner is not ready yet. He'll be ready there hoping next week. I don't know. House, he might have won me over in this one. Straight up or with the points. No, the plus seven.
Starting point is 01:02:43 I just don't. Yeah, we have to make a pick. I like this teams playing on a short week. like the 49ers against a team off the by, nine and six against the spread in recent memory. Also like the third time play, I feel like that always gets weird in some way, but I like the, I don't even think,
Starting point is 01:03:04 I mentioned this couple weeks ago because I always text Danny and Mina about the Seahawks. I don't even think they fully trust the Seahawks. Like the people that have watched them week and week out, I don't think they trust their offense. So you're throwing in this same darnal abdominal thing that we know about on Thursday, which is like, okay, they're not going to do them.
Starting point is 01:03:21 that much, but they're still going to need them. We know he's heard. They plan 48 hours. They play on Sunday. It's clearly something. Not to be so obvious. So number one seeds, favored by seven or more, 21, 25 and 1 against the spread. Just keep doing it.
Starting point is 01:03:38 I mean, we can just keep pounding the trends game. And the part that I mentioned earlier that it is so lined up for Seattle, so lined up for the next couple weeks that it almost makes you nervous. Well, maybe we take the points. for this next game I have a featured bet and it's a featured bet from Fandall's sports book because they have turned playoff mode on
Starting point is 01:03:58 Fendell's got it all they have same game parley as quick bets for jumping in lives offers to boost your winnings every game day and my Patriots are playing and they wanted me to do a three-teamer same game parlay which I was happily obliged here's where I land it
Starting point is 01:04:15 because I have to have the Pats winning it and we'll talk about the game in a second Remandre Stevenson over two and a half receptions More and more as the season went along He's gotten better as a receiver Drake trusts him There's a couple where he's like in trouble And he dumps it off to him
Starting point is 01:04:33 They'll have a design wheel route for him I just feel like he's getting three And then Drake for 225 plus passing yards Everyone's terrified of this Texas defense After that Pittsburgh game I have some thoughts on that But anyway, that total price right now is plus 370. You can use your 30% SGP profit boost token.
Starting point is 01:04:55 Can't even higher payout. Tail my bet. Trust me. Don't throw away the last 18 weeks. Tail my bet. Make your own bet on another playoff game. The possibilities are on this during playoff mode with Fandle. All right, Patriots favored by three.
Starting point is 01:05:12 No Nico Collins, it looks like. Likely out concussion protocol. He can't have a concussion in playoffice. Five days later. That's nuts. I don't. It's like the playoff concussion protocol. Let's not do that. Let's not do that. Here's where I became confident about the game, guys. Josh McDaniel, a little press conference this morning, just raving about the Texans defense. These guys are the fastest defense we've seen all year. They don't make mistakes. We're going to need our best offensive game of the year to compete in this one. Just doing the just doing the butter up routine. I'm like, I don't believe that for a second.
Starting point is 01:05:49 I agree with all that, by the way. It's a zone team. I'm persuaded. I think they think they could throw on them. And I just, I've seen them do this before. They rave about the other team and then they, meanwhile, have five things up their sleeve. I think they're going to move the ball. How does New England score on this Texans defense bill?
Starting point is 01:06:09 Drake May. A couple big deep shots to Bouté. We've seen the Texans get beaten by deep shots that happened to that Chargers game. Yep. Riley Leonard. We saw Rogers. And now it appears. We saw Rogers, because a lot of times they're just rushing forward.
Starting point is 01:06:25 We saw Rogers with opportunities to run where he didn't because he's old. Drake Day will run. And I just think the paths are way better than the Steelers. But that Stalers team, in hindsight, maybe we should have predicted this house when we actually made our picks. But the Ravens game was the Super Bowl for them. The moment they, and they still almost had a chance, it was 7-6. They still had a chance. on the wrong side of the analysis.
Starting point is 01:06:52 They just ran out of steam. Well, they just weren't good enough offensively. They were not good enough. That's right. I was pushing you guys hard to pick the Steelers that day for the Ravens game. I felt vindicated. And then I picked them again to beat the Texans. And I felt like an idiot.
Starting point is 01:07:06 The big issue with the Pats is the left side of the line. And Campbell not being good. He's taking some heat. He got a little salty in an interview. But I also think that there's stuff you can do. You can put an extra tight end on there. could roll coverage away from Will Anderson. There's things in place.
Starting point is 01:07:23 Shragues, what do you think? I've seen the Texans defense up close now twice this season. Seattle for a doubleheader Monday night football, they lost the game, but they crushed Sam Darnold. I think I picked them off three times, and they were in the back field the entire game. And then I was at Monday Night Football. I am blown away by all three levels of this defense
Starting point is 01:07:45 that I am going to give you the biggest hyperbole of all. this might be like the 2000 Ravens. They might not need to do anything on offense. They might just win games 13, 10, 16, 13. We might wake up the Monday after the Super Bowl, and it's freaking Will Anderson on a float at Disneyland. This defense is that good. They're that fast.
Starting point is 01:08:08 And I just don't see how, you know, I just don't see how the Patriots score enough to beat them. And the only way they lose to the Patriots, and I know they're a young team on the road playoffs, is that their quarterback holds them back and their offense just isn't good enough and they give the ball away because if they just protect the ball,
Starting point is 01:08:25 I think you're underestimating this defense in a serious way. I think it's historically good. Definitely not underestimating. But my question is, this Texan's offense going against the Pat's defense, which was really, really good last week and is healthy and is a different defense with Milton Williams. I don't think they're going to be able
Starting point is 01:08:43 to run the ball in the past at all. Is that going to be a worse matchup then Drake May, who's been one of the best players in the league all year, a really good offensive coordinator, playing at home, cold weather that they're used to. Houston plays in a dome, all of these other factors that go into it, that Houston defense would have to overcome all that. They were able to do it on Monday night. But that game, like Pittsburgh blew that game. They were in it. They were in it. Like Stroud was like broken. What makes you think Stroud's not going to be broken this week? What do you think, Cass?
Starting point is 01:09:13 it really comes down to how many plays do you think that Houston defense can make because I don't see a scenario under which Houston establishes any kind of offensive rhythm whatsoever. The difference between. Especially with Collins. Agreed. It's like, oh, we're replaced with Christian Kirk. Christian Kirk has bounced around for three years.
Starting point is 01:09:38 Get out of here. I don't think we're properly rating the significance of Milton. William's. I mean, I know you, Bill Simmons, understand the difference. I've been saying it all year. He left the defense and everyone could run on us. Yeah. So, so when he's in the, in the lineup, uh, 3.8 yards per carry for opposing running backs. That's the second best run defense in the NFL at that rate. They give up 83 yards. The high running back rush when Milton Williams was in the lineup was 58 yards. And he got hurt in that game. That's how that running back got to 58.
Starting point is 01:10:15 Yeah, Marx is over as 55 and a half, and I think it's dropped four yards during the week. Don't you feel like Rush for them? He has a season-ending injury every game and then just plays the next week. Yeah, then it's fine. Right. You have to, he misses four carries because he's in the blue 10,
Starting point is 01:10:31 four to six characters. And they have Chub as the backup. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball at all. And I think Stroud is going to be in a lot of trouble. Keep going, House. Well, I mean, that's it. I just want to make the case for the New England defense. and how the version of this defense,
Starting point is 01:10:46 Gonzalez was a full participant in practice today, Thursday. Tonga's back. How do you say his name? Chris, Kyris, I don't know how to say it. Tonga, Tonga, the defensive tackle. We call them Tonga. That's part of the run defense as well. And I think that they can get a little bit of a pass rush going as well.
Starting point is 01:11:05 They were in Justin Herbert's lap all game Sunday night. No doubt. Also, Shraig, some manifesto rules this week. And you just laid out one of my favorites. This is the number one rule. But where have the looked a little too good the previous round team? This is textbook with the Texans D. Texans D was awesome, all season, right?
Starting point is 01:11:28 It was one of the three. They went up a level against this Pittsburgh team that offensive line wasn't good. They didn't head mech half. That's about it. Rogers was slow. That's as good. is that's as good of a situation as they're probably going to get. Texans offense was not good against the bills,
Starting point is 01:11:46 but they sack Josh Allen, I think, nine times on a Thursday night. It's Thursday night. And they won. All right, that's one. Chiefs, chiefs season on the line in Arrowhead. Texans' offense, nothing special. Stroud made a couple of plays. They eliminated the chiefs with their defense.
Starting point is 01:12:03 Like, the defense travels. And what's interesting is I'm the same way. But offensive lines do not travel. That's suck. Fair. And their line in the Steelers game didn't travel. It's not going to travel on New England. I think there's also, we look at those logos,
Starting point is 01:12:17 and I think you said this, because I covered, I was in Foxborough for about three of these. And the Texans always with Matt Schaub and with whoever else used to go up there to Foxborough in a divisional round game on a Saturday night, and they just get the shit kicked out of them by the Patriots.
Starting point is 01:12:30 And we know that visual. Like it always happened. I would say, this particular group of Texans, they have been to the final four of the AFC, the last two years. So it's not like they're just this neophyte team
Starting point is 01:12:44 that's going in with wide eyes. Like they've banged on the door. They took the chiefs to the wire last year. They did. And the year before that, they took the Ravens with Lamar to the wire.
Starting point is 01:12:53 And if it was for a couple of plays, they could have won that game. So they're not this group of just wide-eyed guys that are like the old Texans where we don't belong in the same field as Brady. If anything,
Starting point is 01:13:02 they've got more experience than this Patriots team when it comes to big games. I want to hear from BS, the recipe on offense because part of the reason why I was bullish on the chargers last week, the case I made, that defense was excellent. And that was the first top 10 defense that the Patriots had
Starting point is 01:13:21 faced in quite a while, maybe the entire season, depending on the metrics you want to use. Yeah. And this defense is an entirely different class altogether. Like, one of the props that I'm already on is Drake May over 35 and a half rushing yards. I don't know if it's going to still be there. I like that one. It might go even further up. Scramble yards. Of 40, of course.
Starting point is 01:13:43 And those scramble yards are what were really the only thing available to Aaron Rogers. But the problem for the Patriots is because Houston doesn't blitz and they don't have to blitz. They just put four-man pressure. They take away the middle of the football field because their linebackers can all go back. And you're saying to the Patriots, you know, who's going to beat us in the middle of the the football field. When we have that, we're going to take that away from you. And I absolutely adore your remandre play. So that, that's one of the ways, right? Yeah. He's, he's, he's been built in. I like his yardage. I like his reception overs. But let me hear the recipe from your perspective.
Starting point is 01:14:25 All right. The viewers probably noticed there was a little edit there is because the power on my street went out and I lost power for like five minutes, right as I was about to answer House's question about why I thought the Patriots could move the ball on the Texans. I don't know if that was an open. I wish I had a better answer than this. I really believe in Drake May. And I felt what he did in the second half of that Chargers game against, I think, a good defense where he just kind of figured it out as the game went along. I think he got out all his like rookie, rookie sea leg playoff rookie sea leg stuff.
Starting point is 01:15:04 And I don't think he was happy with how he played. All the dialogue all week was Drake's got to be like just like. slightly nudging him. And I think he's going to love playing in this game against Houston. Like I think that I think he likes this shit. It's like, oh, this is the best defense. We've seen teams move the ball on Houston. And I don't, the 2000 Ravens, I get it.
Starting point is 01:15:25 You can, that feels like a little bit over and over reaction tricks. I know. It's hyperbole. I know. Yeah, after a Stewards team that we've seen other defenses do that to, you know. Browns. I just like the, our defense. chances against their offense as much as I think the reverses.
Starting point is 01:15:45 So they'll patch it together. The McDaniels have one crazy play, Henry will be involved. Drake will use his legs to save some plays. That's what Rogers couldn't do last week. He didn't save any plays, you know. I have a bethouse that you're going to absolutely love. Love or hate? No, this is a Fandole prop.
Starting point is 01:16:08 Okay, great. I'm going to love it. First half of the game is a tie. Why? Why though? Patriots. No, this is for Ringer 107. First half of the game is a tie.
Starting point is 01:16:19 So it's like 3-3-66-0-0-7, whatever. Patriots win. 17-1. Wow. Wow. So you're just rooting for like a 3-3 first half and then do it. I thought those odds were great. Now you're talking about it.
Starting point is 01:16:38 We got to do it. This is my favorite bet of the entire. second round. CJ Stroud to throw a pick minus 125. Fine. He doesn't throw a pick. I'll be disappointed.
Starting point is 01:16:50 So Shrags is in on the Texans. There's a bunch of manifesto rules against you, including the law of Lombardi. Your guy Lombardy. Bad offensive lines don't travel. Just throwing that one out. We're just throwing out the dome team outside. We're just throwing out C.J. Stroud looked like he was
Starting point is 01:17:09 having a legitimate meltdown last week. It's only going to be worse. Obviously, I have to take the pads. But I think the line's fair, and I like the minus three. How do you agree? I'm fine with it because I can't come up with on the offensive side of the ball for Houston. A way for them to get 14 points? There's no rhythm.
Starting point is 01:17:33 I might just play on the pregame show. You guys watched Monday, Jalen Petrie, like a scud missile on ever. every single. I mean, they were, there was not a second. They were amazing. It's Christian Kirk and it's, you know, it's all these guys. Yeah, Petrie was amazing. That's, absolutely like. It was like Shrags went to the Boogie Nights set during
Starting point is 01:17:54 filming a Spanish pantolones. And he's like, you don't understand this, Dirk Diggler. I was there. I was there. This guy is the best porn star I've ever seen. He was too. Am I Scotty in the corner? He would go doggy style. He goes straight up.
Starting point is 01:18:09 He really, he really was that. though. You think Dirk was the goat? Pete's right. I mean, Roller girl. Roller girl did say he was the goat. All right. Last game.
Starting point is 01:18:22 The most fun one. And the one I actually feel the most strongly about bears, bears getting three and half at home against the Rams. Can I set the table for you and your listeners? Just go. Just cook. Oh, let's do it. So a little bit was made out of it.
Starting point is 01:18:35 And Stephen A actually hit on in a touch. But like that handshake and all that mother. F, mother FSA from Ben Johnson, did not go over well with the McVeigh tree, if you will, and around the league. Mike LaFleur is Matt LaFleur's little brother. He's the offensive coordinator for the Rams. And Sean's best friend in coaching is Matt LaFleur. So when you do the utter disrespect and the brazen locker room video where you're saying,
Starting point is 01:19:06 F the Packers, F that coaching staff. And the social media team clicks go, send it. out in the world. And then the next day, when you've got 24 hours to really think about it, to say, no, I'm fine with what I said, and my owner's got my back on that too. It's the stuff that, I know you and Sal were talking about,
Starting point is 01:19:26 we're talking about, it's the stuff that I live for. It's like, this is the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, actual personality's involved. And, like, I think McVeigh wants to kick the snout out of Ben Johnson. And I think Ben Johnson,
Starting point is 01:19:40 who's beaten McVeigh the last two times when Detroit played the Rams has no problem with that. I'll beat the snout of you. Like, I love these two guys. Two young alpha offensive minds like going at it in this game. I can't wait. Wow. Shregs got it legitimately aroused.
Starting point is 01:19:55 I'm right there with them. I love that shit so much. And Shregs, you just put the hairs on my neck. No, I did get a nice haircut. Put the hair. Let's go, man. In a league where every coach hugs the other coach.
Starting point is 01:20:08 That's right. They give the jerseys. Great effort. Great effort. Tua loses to the Steelers on a Monday night game and is seen there hugging Jalen Ramsey, trade in a jersey. Like that's the stuff that this is the opposite. These guys do not like each other right now.
Starting point is 01:20:23 And I think that's great. What's your take in the game, has? So I can't get past the Bears' terrible run defense. That's the starting point for me. I love that for you start. It might be the ending point as well. well. The ability of the Rams to establish the run, I think like all of this stuff with the weather and everything, we're just overdoing it. I'm just not going to like use that as a element.
Starting point is 01:20:56 But for sure, it's the case like the Rams can run the football. They have one of the best run block, win rate, you know, percentages across their number two in that. All three of their guys Jackson, you know, he's playing at McClendon. It looks like they're getting Kevin Dotson back. They're hoping. That's a big deal. They haven't had him since Seattle. He's big. He's big. He's huge. I mean, he's huge for their run.
Starting point is 01:21:26 But they've been doing this two-headed run monster here with some success over the last, like, you know, six, seven games. And this is the way that they keep their defense off the field. because of defense since week 13? It's a kind of trash. I don't want it to be a shootout kind of scenario where the bears have the ball in the fourth quarter and they need to go down to tie or win.
Starting point is 01:21:55 At some point it feels like that luck will run out, but who the hell can say when? Who can say when? Well, here's the thing. The bears have won in crazy fashion. They have won games in the wildest ways. and the Rams have lost games in crazy fashion. Like that Seattle game, the San Francisco Thursday night game,
Starting point is 01:22:13 the Carolina game. Yeah. So like it's the... Philly? Do you say Philly? The polar opposites. That was the craziest. No doubt.
Starting point is 01:22:22 The cold weather thing is interesting. So you could say, you know, it's going to be eight degrees. And the Bears play in that. And that's just what they are. And like the Rams are a warm weather team. I would argue Lake Coram went to Michigan. Karen Williams went to Notre Dame. Puckus went to BYU.
Starting point is 01:22:36 DeVante. Adams played at Green Bay. Like, Stafford's a Detroit guy. Like, I don't know. He's at least an NFC North guy. Yeah. Like, he's played in Chicago when it's cold before. 100%.
Starting point is 01:22:48 So I don't know if I make as big of a deal that is it. Bill, what do you think? Rule number eight, but where of any aging Q being cold weather? By the way, by the way. A busted finger, right? A finger that's real. Uh-oh.
Starting point is 01:23:04 Rule number 12. But where of any team that celebrated the previous weekend's playoff victory. Like, they just won the freaking Super Bowl. That's the Bears. There is one of those. We have one of those in this game. Rule number 13, don't dismiss the nerd evidence that the nerd evidence is absolutely overwhelming.
Starting point is 01:23:20 So that goes both ways. Bears run defense that House mentioned. Can we talk about how bad the Rams special teams is and how that's going to be the demise of their season? In eighth degree weather, is there ever better, better blueprint for getting your season fucked up? God. I'm in on the bears. Stafford and freezing cold,
Starting point is 01:23:47 Rams special teams, and the Bears have just done this too many times that I'm tired of watching. I think they're going to be able to throw on them. The 8 degrees thing is meaningful. It's going to be freezing cold. The Rams are a fucking dome team. And I know they have the profile
Starting point is 01:24:03 that can do outside and run the ball and all that stuff, but I just feel like the bears are, it's like a legitimate Michael Myers, situation. You have to be up 20 points before you feel safe. The Packers were up 20 points or they're up 18. They basically
Starting point is 01:24:19 didn't get up to 20. I just think this has all the makings. I can see it in my head that Collinsworth, Torrico. Oh, Mike. Just going nuts. Just the shots of the Bears fans freezing. Yeah. Bears fans just loving it.
Starting point is 01:24:36 Them cut into the Rams and them being like, Jesus Christ, I've never been this cold in my life. Like, you say Stafford was from Detroit. They played indoors in Detroit. They played in the NFC. They played in Lambo and it's overfield. I get it.
Starting point is 01:24:50 But he lives in L.A. I go back east when it's cold and it takes me like two days to, I'm just freezing the entire time. It's a real thing. The Edwards thing really wears me. Yes. How about the left tackle? They have their left tackle.
Starting point is 01:25:05 It played a great season. He's injured. Is he definitely out? Right now he's trending that way. The hook is great. I like that this could be Rams 2717, and I could still get a hook at the end and steal one with the Bears.
Starting point is 01:25:20 And the picks have been terrible all year and it would be more fun to root for the Bears. That's really my case. The Rams going road game last week, road game this week, road game looming next week, I think is unless San Francisco can somehow win. So there is this other weird scenario
Starting point is 01:25:37 where Rams can win. Niners win. And then all of a sudden, They'll know that going in because they have extra rest for completely unnecessary reasons. When the Rams won the Super Bowl that year, they were the five-seed and the Niners were the sixth seed. Same thing happened. They hosted them at the NFC championship game. Well, can we do worst-case scenarios for each side?
Starting point is 01:25:59 Because I think this is the perfect game to do that. Okay. Worst case scenario, you bet the Bears, you can't stop the Rams running game. They just have the ball the whole time. We're passing game. Three and out. Rams back. Pooka makes his.
Starting point is 01:26:12 one 50-yard play that he broke three tackles. You can't get the ball back. And you're like, we just want to get it to the fourth quarter. And then it's 27 to 10 and you never had a chance. Right. Is that the worst case scenario for the Bears? Just the Rams on the field, 39 minutes of possession. Do you know what team scored the most points in the wild card round?
Starting point is 01:26:31 The Rams, like they score. Yeah. They're going to score. Can the fear is that they come out and they just put up 40 on you. When they don't play good defenses, they average 32. and a half points. They scored 27 points and 11 of their 14 games,
Starting point is 01:26:46 the Rams. Worst case scenario for the Rams. A couple dumb things happen. Stafford pick, miss field goal, block field goal, some sort of kick return,
Starting point is 01:26:58 something. And it's just frigid. And it's close late. And Caleb starts heating up and you have the Rams minus three and a half and you're like, fuck.
Starting point is 01:27:09 You bring out the thick kicker. This is, This team has done this seven times. It bears them the seven times, the 19 weeks schedule where they've had these crazy comebacks. I just, I don't know how you can bet again. This feels like the last hurrah for them because then they go to Seattle the next week.
Starting point is 01:27:28 But I don't know. The hook, I wish this line, if it was two and a half, I'd like the Rams, the three and half, I feel like it's an extra point house. What do you make of a few of the Rams assistants interviewing for head coaching jobs this week. Oh, distraction. Distraction. Distracting.
Starting point is 01:27:45 So you have to weigh that against the Ben Johnson hatred, which one, which emotion is going to carry the day. They might hate him, you know, in obviously a football sense, not personally. Yes, yes, of course. But he has run the ball and done whatever he's wanted with Detroit's offense the last few times they've played also. Can we talk about the Rams last two months
Starting point is 01:28:08 would be my other thing I wanted to bring up? where yeah, Carolina last week, Arizona, week 18, whatever. The Atlanta game they lose. They lose the Seattle game by one. The Detroit game is back and forth. They end up winning by 7, 4134. Arizona, the other game, throwout. Carolina, they lose by three.
Starting point is 01:28:29 Is there like a ton of evidence this is a juggernaut kind of team at this point? I would say none whatsoever. Would you argue a beatable team house? Of course. The Panthers almost be. them. Like they were one play away from winning that football game, the Panthers. So last piece of my case. They deserved it. They deserved it. Last piece of my case. What if Caleb went up a notch? What if he actually went up a level over these last couple weeks? And
Starting point is 01:28:56 like that fourth quarter was actually like, this might be closer to who he is now versus like this guy who takes two hours to warm up. Like what if he just comes out and he's really good in this game? What if he's just awesome in this game? It's conceivable, right? Yes. Of course. And we know the bears can run. I mean, you know, they've demonstrated against defenses at least as good run defense-wise as this Rams team. You know, if Ben Johnson gets any kind of a weakness, it's what he did to that Philadelphia Eagles. He's like, oh, I have an advantage here.
Starting point is 01:29:31 Yeah. Let me just keep running the exact same play for 260 yards on the fucking ground. Let's see how that works out. And they just beat him. Last week, Coker, 9 for 134. Macmillan, 5 for 81. And the other thing is Loveland's turned into an absolute monster in the last four weeks. I just, I really like their passing offense.
Starting point is 01:29:54 I think they can throw on the Rams and keep the game. Even if the Rams score on them, I think they can come back and score on the Rams. And my whole thing is like if, if you feel like either team can win, you got to take the points, right? It's totally fine. I'm not getting your way. The other thing you have going for you is like the first bet I made this week was Seattle, Rams, Moneyline Parlay. And then I put Indiana with it as well.
Starting point is 01:30:19 So, you know, you know how this is going to go. I'd feel like either team can win this game. Bears plus three and a half. That's my last one. Shrags hates it. I hate it. I forgot one bet that I really love from the Texans game. Drake made to have the most rushing yards in the game plus 4.10.
Starting point is 01:30:38 Okay. More than RemaMondres. That could be like 47 yards could be the most run. It's great. It's great. It's plus 4.10. I got it. I got to take a break.
Starting point is 01:30:49 He had 66 last week. What's the over under in that game? What's the total? Well, that was one. This is my last thing talking about the picks. Over under is 40 and a half. Patriots, Texans. House, we could do Pat's Money Line under 51.5.
Starting point is 01:31:05 The game would have to do 52 points to beat it. Why is he doing this? No. He hates these bets. No. No. House, what scenario does this go to 52 points? It doesn't fucking matter.
Starting point is 01:31:16 What scenario did the Chargers and the Patriots not get to 31 points? How did they not get to 31? It doesn't matter. You just don't do totals? You're done? No, we do. We do totals and we lose because of it. It's one of the reasons we have a 40 and 55 record in 1-07.
Starting point is 01:31:35 Honestly, I think the parlay is like if you took out the, parles we're being damned here 500. Yeah. Like we're on the correct side many times on these parley. Today's Ringer 101 7 brought to by a Fandul. We're picking four playoff games. House would not allow us to do any parley.
Starting point is 01:31:53 We went against Peter Schreger's advice. On all four games, I think. Is that true? No, I was with you on Seattle. Broncos minus one and a half over the bills. When the only cases don't go against Josh Allen, and you can't come up with a single other reason to take the team.
Starting point is 01:32:12 Sadly, you've got to take the Broncos, and I actually think that line should be minus three. Next one, 49ers plus seven over the Seahawks. We're all lined on this one. Lines a little too high. Don't know about this startled abdomen thing. Haven't loved the Seahawks offense the last couple weeks, and third time these two teams have played,
Starting point is 01:32:34 which usually leads to something wacky. Next one, Patriots minus three. over the Texans. Some people are asking how are the Patriots going to move the ball against the Texans D? I ask,
Starting point is 01:32:45 how are the Texans going to move the ball in cold weather in New England against the Patriots D? Low scoring game. I just think this is a quarterback's game
Starting point is 01:32:55 at some point. This is Drake Mae versus C.J. Stroud. Pick carefully and then last but not these bears plus three and a half against the Rams.
Starting point is 01:33:04 Shraigs was horrified by this pick. House kind of liked it. I think I talked them into it. Two things here. I think either team could win. I like the hook, and I think the bears are going to be able to move the ball.
Starting point is 01:33:18 So I actually like the over on this. I think what was that game you played last year house? Was the Washington Philly game? What was that like 52 to 30? 55 to. Oh, yeah, yeah. Usually cold weather games don't do that. Yeah, it was an LFC championship game.
Starting point is 01:33:31 Cold weather games tend to bring that down. So, yeah. All right. And wait a second. Wait a second. that was today's Ring 107 brought to by Fandall. Odd subject to change. What do you got, Shanks?
Starting point is 01:33:43 I was going to tell you you're still on fire. We were talking about this two weeks ago. Your Peyton Manning O.J. Simpson mailbag question was one of the... You're still in your apex moment here. You're still on fire. It's a re-apex. That's exactly right.
Starting point is 01:33:58 You're on Apex Mountain and the re-Apex with the sliding doors and the whole thing. I'm telling you, on fire. Whatever you're doing. Do you agree with that house? That modern OJ would... I miss the mailbag. I did it. Yeah, it was within the last 20 hours.
Starting point is 01:34:12 I'm trying to catch out. Tell them what the answer was. If the OJ car chase happened again, who would be the athlete that could compare the most to how we felt about OJ in 1994 when that happened? And my answer, after offering Serena Williams and Charles Barkley, I forget who the third one was. Oh, Jason Kelsey. Kelsey.
Starting point is 01:34:33 But the answer is clearly Peyton Manning. fame, being shocked that it's happening. My mom would care. I think he's the answer. And then House, he's like, they would break into even the Oscars. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:34:50 Super Bowl, Oscars, name an event. Stranger Things season finale? Every event. They would be interrupted. Peyton Manning is in. Who's in the car with Peyton Manning? Who's in Alcala?
Starting point is 01:35:04 Is it an Austin Colley? Dwight. It's probably Marvin Harrison, actually. Oh, God. I got to look around. Hope he's that here. I'll say that. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:35:17 So you agree with that answer, Shregs? It was amazing. You're on fire, dude. Please, whatever you're doing. No carbs, no sugar. Just keep it going. You're on fire right now. You're kicking ass, and I love being a part of it.
Starting point is 01:35:27 I'm going to see him in three weeks. Oh, that's going to hell. I'm telling you right now. Yeah, House and I are going back for Bob Coosy's court retirement at Holy Cross. Naming Ceremony. Yeah. College of the Holy Cross and Woodson. It's the weekend of Super Bowl.
Starting point is 01:35:40 We don't care. Are you really going to go Super Bowl weekend? Yeah. It's Bob Coozy. It's the fucking Cous. I'll be back in time. No, we'll be back for the game, but we're not going to,
Starting point is 01:35:51 I don't want to go to Santa Clara and have the electromagnetic rays being shot at me. I care about my tendons and my ligaments. No Super Bowl week for you at all? No Super Bowl week. Oh, that's a disappointment. It's going to be a Holy Cross weekend.
Starting point is 01:36:07 Hassell Jacko. We're back. Jalen Coker. Yeah. Maybe Jalen Coker will be our fourth house. Should we ask him? None catches last week. It's either him or Gordy Lockbaum, one or the other. Triggs, Coos is 97. It's unbelievable. It's still killing it.
Starting point is 01:36:25 He was so old in the movie Blue Chips, and that was 30 years ago. He's the absolute best. And one of the reasons we love being at Holy Cross 30 years ago is we had this Cousie Heintson legacy of, it was just so cool that they won the NCAA title and IT. It was a big part. And now it's like so many years ago. I don't even think the kids there probably even realized those guys went there.
Starting point is 01:36:47 So yeah, we're going back. I'm going to miss you in San Francisco. We usually have a good hang during Super Bowl week. I'm a little sad. I mean, San Francisco, Santa Clara, it's all over the map. I don't know what to tell you. You love Super Bowl, though. There's nothing more you love than saddling up to a minority owner and a TV exec.
Starting point is 01:37:07 And then a retired quarterback, just like being able to just move around. You, I've seen you in action. You, me, Mike Tariko, and Bryce Young in a conversation last year. Yeah, that happened last year. That was great. That was really fun. All right, guys. Well, I mean, that rivals this, this appearance by Lena Dunham on Netflix.
Starting point is 01:37:26 I'm on with Lena Dunham and Bill Simmons. That's amazing. Hello. I forgot about that. Look at Lena. House, you're in Ringer Gambling show on Saturday. Shrags, any more TV this week for you? Friday morning. I'm on Get Up.
Starting point is 01:37:41 That's tomorrow. Yes, in a couple hours. Oh, Jesus. Go to Bed Triggs. Thanks, guys. Thanks to Gahau and Eduardo as well. Don't forget, I'll be back here live on Netflix on Sunday night after the Rams Bears game. You'll be able to watch and listen to that on Spotify as well. Enjoy the weekend. Enjoy the gambling. Great to see you guys.
Starting point is 01:38:16 Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino. Or 18 plus in president, D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Game problem, call 100 gambler or visit RG-HallHareG-7-7-7-7.com. Call 88879-7-7-7 or visit ccpgagmaging.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit Gamblinghelplinema.m.m.org. Or call 800-327-50-50 for 24-7-support in Massachusetts. Or call 8778-8-Hope-N-Y or text Hope N.
Starting point is 01:38:47 In New York.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.