The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Resurgent Knicks and NFL Playoff Picks With Mike Breen and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: January 8, 2021

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by broadcaster Mike Breen to talk about an optimistic start to the Knicks season, tales from the broadcast booth, and more (3:30). Then Bill talks with Peter Schrager of Fox Sports and NFL Network about Bill’s NFL Playoff Gambling Manifesto and to preview all the wild-card games, before Bill gives out his Million Dollar NFL Picks (44:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Playoffs are coming and we have it covered on the ringer, not just on this podcast on Sunday night, following the final game on Saturday night and the final game on Sunday night, the ringer NFL show will be going alive. Make sure you subscribe to the ringers YouTube channel. That's at youtube.com slash the ringer. Make sure you're following us on at ringer NFL on Twitter, Saturday night,

Kevin Clark, Ryan Rosillo coming on right after Tampa, Washington, and then Sunday night, Kevin Clark, nor Prince Yachty coming on right after Tampa, Washington. And then Sunday night, Kevin Clark, Nora Princiati coming on right after. Steelers, Browns, and me and Sal will be coming on Sunday night as well. Stay tuned. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel.

Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks, and then zag the other way. If you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like to catch a pass,

same game parlays, highest scoring game across the Sunday slate, offensive TDs in the next drive. They have so much stuff, it's crazy. The app is safe and secure and easy to use. And when you win, you'll get paid instantly. Plus, look out for FanDuel Squares this season. Here's what you have to do. Visit FanDuel.com slash BS to download America's number one sports book. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit RG-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. And listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states.

Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit RG-help.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it.

Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age.

We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where I did two other podcasts this week. One was the Rewatchables Bridesmaids. Did that with Mina Kimes and Mallory Rubin. And then Ringer Dish, Dave Jacoby and I broke down episode four of the Challenge Double Agents. We're doing that every Wednesday night if you like the challenge. Speaking of Ringer podcast, the real ones on the Ringer NBA show with Logan Murdoch

and Rajah Bell, they got Tim Duncan as a guest this week. I've never been more jealous of another Ringer podcast. Tim Duncan does new interviews. Well, they got him. He came on and it's really good. Go check it out. Check it out on the Ring Around BA show. And then Ring Around NFL show this week, as we mentioned at the top, they're going live

after the games on Saturday and Sunday. Coming up, we're going to talk to Mike Breen about the resurgent Knicks and what it's like to broadcast games during a pandemic. And we're going to talk to Peter Schrager. He's going to help me do million-dollar picks for round one of the NFL playoffs. What we are not going to do on this podcast is talk about Trump.

If you want to hear Trump stuff, go to Higher Learning, go to the Press Box, go to the Bacari Sellers podcast. All of them did great jobs this week. Yesterday was a new low for a guy who has repeatedly given us new lows. Yesterday was one of the darkest days in American history.

And I'm still kind of reeling from it. And I have nothing interesting to say about it other than we just got to get to the finish line and try to move on and try to figure out how to rebuild all the stuff that's been broken over the last few years. So that's it. Pearl Jam. All right, Mike Green is here, the voice of the 2021 Eastern Champion New York Knicks. Hey, if you're calling for finals tickets, get in line, pal. I mean, I might have some if it goes to a six or seven game, but there's no way for a couple of games.

It's been a crazy last 10 months for you as a broadcaster. I'm guessing things that you weren't expecting out of all the things that you didn't expect last 10 months were the Knicks to be as good as the Nets through the first three weeks of the season. This makes no sense. I really felt they'd be improved just because of the coaching change, just Tom Thibodeau I'm so high on, but not like this to the point. The last telecast I did, I looked at Clyde Frazier, I think, on the air, and I said, who are these Knicks?

It's unbelievable. It's so much fun, but it's also so sad because, as you know, Knick fans are as loyal as any fan base in any sport. And for them to finally have a good team and not be able to go to the garden, I am praying that at some point this season, they'll be able to go and watch him play in person. And it's the kind of team they would like, because it's just a bunch of hardworking dudes who gave a shit,

which is, I think, intentionally put together. You know, they brought in Leon Rose and World Wide West and Tibbs, and they seem like they're pretty devoted to building a culture. They didn't go chase free agents. Gordon Hayward was the only one they really went after. And then the price went way out of whack on that. And then they were just like, you know what? We like the guys we have here.

There's guys with good pedigree. We're going to try to build around these guys and add people who play really hard. Even somebody like Rivers who has bounced around, has been in big games and has a real swagger to him. But this team makes sense to me when I watch it. When did it make sense to you as you were watching it?

Well, you could see even in the preseason, guys that I've watched before play differently. Maybe not like enormous jumps out of the screen at you, but you could see they were playing differently. And I mean, you know, this so often in terms of when you acquire players or get players, what time of their career are you getting them? Because they're not ready sometimes to do certain things. Isaiah Thomas said one of the great lines years ago, the hall of fame, Isaiah Thomas, when he said, young players define their games by how many points they score.

And that's so true. And to this day, there still is, obviously, exceptions. But for so many players, they want to establish themselves. And really, he talks about, as you go later on in your career, you establish your game or establish your name by how many wins your team has. And just look at two guys like Julius Randall and Alfred Payton. Okay. If you asked Nick fans last year, who are the two guys they wanted off the team? They may have been one and two, but these guys, neither one of them have ever been to the post-season. Now you get a coach who comes in who's so demanding and has, you know, the pedigree and the track record, all of a sudden your agenda is changed. You don't want to, you know, score 25 points a night,

even though Randall is. You want to win basketball games. And so much of it is about the timing of when you acquire a player. Well, and they have pedigree guys too, right? And that's why as I – and I've been fascinated. I've watched a lot of their last five games because I've been fascinated by Randall, who I really liked in college,

who I thought, you know, it was Embiid and Wiggins. I thought Embiid was the most talented guy. I did the draft that year. But I thought Randall was going to be a reliable 2010 guy. And I remember the Celtics, it was basically between Smart and Randall for that pick. And I thought Randall was going to be good. He breaks his leg with the Lakers.

He's on those weird Laker teams. He starts bouncing around. And then eventually I kind of gave up on him. I just thought he was a black hole who had, was on a bunch of bad teams with a bunch of mediocre to worst coaches. And now it's too late. But as it turns out, not too late. I never saw the passing from him. I mean, the thing that's shocking, and I'm sure you feel the same way as you're announcing, like the all-around game for him this year, I don't know where it came from. Where do you think it came from? It's tremendous.

And I agree with you. The rep was starting to be, Guy could put up empty stats for any poor team. But you still, to score 20 points a night, no matter who you play for, you have to have some real ability. And now when you bring into a coach that demands that you make the right decision, you make the pass, and it's not just, he's not just telling them.

He is drilling that into them. Guys see the game a different way. Alfred Payton was telling a story the other day how if he's running a drill or running you know the set place and he doesn't like i'm talking about thibodeau he doesn't like the way it's run he will run it 100 consecutive times until it's in your head so they haven't had that before i've heard the word demanding from every player on the roster multiple times when they're being interviewed and and again not every every player wants to be coached that way.

And coaches like players, a lot of it is fit right now with this team, with this roster, he's the perfect fit because he's an elite coach. If he has those guys who want to follow him and want to do what he says. Well, so he's got Rando who he's unlocked. Barrett who I never gave up on, you know, he comes in as a rookie. The team's got a million point guards, terrible situation. And then the bubble, they're not in it. Obviously the pandemic ends the season early. He doesn't even get that last

20 games to try to get, you know, his stats, get a sea legs a little bit. But, you know, I remember Nash is close to him and Nash was always telling me that kid's going to make it. Cause he really gives a shit. Like, you know, I remember Nash is close to him and Nash was always telling me that kid's going to make it because he really gives a shit. Like he is going, whatever his deficiencies are in his game, he'll keep working, working, working at him. I think what we're seeing this year is a guy, he'll have games when he just can't make a shot, but he's going to play hard. He's going to do stuff. He's going to affect things on both sides. I just think he's a keeper. I really like him. I do too. I don't know if he's going to be a perennial all-star or a three or four-time all-star. I don't know. But he's determined. That's the word I use for him because he's got

that work ethic. Last year, he played a team that had horrible point guard play and zero perimeter shooting. Impossible for him to succeed. Plus, he had a Julius Randle who kind of did the same things that he did. It was almost impossible for him to succeed last year. This year, you just see a different, more confident player. He's still only 20 years old. He's going to be fine. His shot is better. He still has to cut down on the one for 10 three-point nights,

but he's going to get better because he's got the, he's got the determination to do it. And it feels like they've unlocked Robinson a little bit too, who I think everybody liked, but you know, he falls in the draft because people aren't sure about his maturity, things like that. I've heard good things about him the last couple of years, but you see him, he's somebody that can play in crunch time as a shot blocking five against

good teams. And he can rebound in traffic. He can protect the rim. He can do little screen and rolls and things like that. So when you watch them in crunch time, the team actually makes sense, especially if like in the case yesterday where Rivers comes in and just has a heat check in the fourth quarter.

I feel like they're not going to really tinker too much with this. I think, and I said this before when it didn't work out for them in the offseason, that it was like, hey, Knicks fans, this is actually good for you. You're not getting these free agents. You're not getting the marquee dudes every year. You got to build like, you got to build from the ground up. You got to build a culture. You got to build around a coach and you got to kind of rejuvenate these dudes that have

pedigree over like constantly hoping Carl Anthony Towns is going to be available or maybe Devin Booker. Like you just got to get out of that. And it feels like they finally snapped out of it. Right. Yeah. To me, the number one priority this year was get to a point where you win more games. That's number one. You had to win more games. You can't have another season where you win more games. That's number one. You had to win more games. You can't have another season where you win 22 games or 25 games in an 82-game season. So you win more games. You start to show, okay, this team competes. When you go play them, they're a tough team to beat.

You're always going to be in a fight. So now opposing players now start to see, okay, this franchise is in the right direction. And just as importantly, agents are now seeing it and hearing from their players. Now the message gets out, boy, the Knicks are on the right path. The Knicks are, they're a pretty good place to go because regardless of what anybody says, and I know I'm a lifetime New Yorker, so I might not be completely objective, but that is still the number one venue for players on the road to go play in. It still means go play in that building.

And eventually when you build it back to a point where it is a destination that you have a chance to be on a really good team, I think they've got a chance to really take off again. The reason I think this is smart, the way they're doing it, the reason why I think it can work, I saw it happen. You know, I love to bring everything back to a Boston team. I saw this happen with the Celtics in 2014 and 15 and 16, where they make that trade for all the Brooklyn picks. They basically got the team, they get rid of Garnett and Pierce, they trade Rondo and it's like, Oh, all right, it's time to tank. Here we go. But they also had Brad Stevens who is, you know, he's going to build a culture. He's going to get guys to overachieve. And they really started putting something together and they had certain types of players. And he had the ability to

take somebody, I don't know, like Jay Crowder, who seemed like just this added dude and Rondo trade. And all of a sudden he's a valuable dude, Evan Turner, a guy much like a Julius Randall type now, like a high lottery pick, great pedigree, who hadn't really made it. All of a sudden, he comes in. He looks pretty good. And so on and so on. And they built a team that overachieved

and became a place that other people want to play. All of a sudden, we get Al Horford in 2016. We haven't signed a free agent in 20 years. You know? Then you get,

then all of a sudden, Kyrie the next year is like, cool, Kyrie trade. Gordon Hayward's coming. And then you start getting people. And I think what you said, that's the key. And that's the thing most teams miss is build the culture. Start winning games.

Start overachieving. And then people want to come to that. But to do that, I mean, you bring up Brad Stevens. And that exactly was the key. Same thing with Thibodeau. It's just it makes a difference. I remember years ago, Billy Packer was being interviewed. And one year, Billy Packer, of course, the great college basketball analyst, he worked NBA games for the playoffs for CBS.

And I had him on a talk show, and I asked him what was the biggest surprise from the NBA game. And he told me the importance of coaching. He goes, I had no idea how much more important a coach is in the NBA than it is in college. He said a coach in the NBA makes more decisions in one game than a college coach would make in probably two weeks worth of games in terms of in-game decisions and adjustments. And I'll never forget that. And I've always felt that throughout. This is now my 29th year calling NBA games. I'm not saying that a great coach can take a talentless team and win a title. That's not going to happen.

And an average coach can take a team loaded with talent to a title. That can happen. But when you have a great coach that's going to maximize your team's ability and maximize potential, it's all the difference in the world. And I really believe that Thibodeau has been and is an elite coach. Yeah, it's funny. I loved him in Chicago. I thought year after year, some of the stuff he did, especially with how they were afraid to spend money and some of the financial decisions they made with their roster, which really undermined them. And they had a lot of bad luck. The Derrick Rose thing was just horrific luck, you know, um, goes to Minnesota and for that one year, at least he turned them into a successful team. And that was a team you look back now and it's like, I don't know if towns is a real franchise guy. We certainly have our answer with Wiggins, uh, Butler's on there, but for the most part, you could argue that team overachieved.

But when he went to the Knicks, I just wasn't sure if his style worked anymore because the league has changed so much the last seven years, you know, and you think like, even that, that when we were in, uh, the Miami, Indiana series that we both worked and how important Roy Hibbert was seven years ago. And being able to play Roy Hibbert and David West together and things like that. And now the league is just different. And it's so much more about spacing and threes and offense. I didn't know if he'd be able to adjust to it. But it seems like his style still works.

That's my takeaway from the first three weeks. Well, his style is still preaching play together, share the ball, help each other. And that's still, you know, it's still the most beautiful time to watch basketball is when five guys are working together and are just kicking the butt of the opponent because their ability to work together. You know, people always ask me about what's the favorite championship or

what's the favorite finals that I've called. And there's always the game seven. I'll never forget the first game seven I did in 2010, 2016. Those games seven are phenomenal. 2013 with the Spurs and the Heat. But one of my favorite teams of all time was that 2014 Spurs team that came back the next year and just, I mean, sliced up the Miami Heat in those finals. That was the best passing exhibition I've ever seen in all my years watching basketball. And when you share the ball, when you've got five guys working together, it just not only looks beautiful, but it's so effective. But the key this year for them, like if they started 0-6, lost a couple of close ones in a row in six,

now guys are wondering. But when you start and gain some victories and now there's what he's saying works, that trust factor just skyrockets and it makes all the difference in the world. And I think one thing they're going to be really careful about is to not always have stories being leaked about,

hey, they might be interested in this guy. Well, this guy, I think they're going to be really, really careful about these are our guys to share where we have no illusions. We're going to try to make the playoffs with this group and we'll worry about next summer when it happens. But I, I think that's a trap that some of the big market teams have fallen into over and over again, where it's constantly, there's some Apple being dangled far away that you end up concentrating on that versus just, this is how I feel with the Celtics right now. It's like, I just want to refer Tatum and Brown for the next 10 years. Can you sign me up for that? I don't want to hear, stop sending me like James Harden trade rumors. Like I have two guys I love rooting for who are awesome guys on and off the court. That's it. Just they're off the table. If, if, if people don't think that that has an

impact on a player's head and, and his performance, they're out of their minds. And the Knicks are going to do because if Randall keeps playing like this and say, Oh, be top incomes and he starts to play well, there's going to be rumors of him being dealt all the time. And that has an impact on players. I mean, look what has happened over just in the past couple of years, how it could destroy teams in terms of how guys, there's no question, some guys can deal with it, but a lot of guys, are you kidding me? The human nature of this is so undervalued so many times that when you see your name in a trade rumor and you think, okay, I'm, I'm living in LA and playing for the Lakers. I might be going here.

And that plays with your head. And I couldn't agree more. And, and I think, I think they, well, I shouldn't say they've learned from that because for Leon Rose, it's his first time doing this job,

but he's not talking very much. So there's not going to be leaks from, from the front office coming on stuff like that. Those guys aren't talking at all. And I think it seems like they're trying to replicate a little like what Calipari did in Kentucky, right? Like they even brought Kenny Payne over as one of the coaches. I forget the name of the other assistant coach that they brought.

Johnny Bryant. Johnny Bryant. They spent real money on two guys because, you know, I think part of what they're trying to do isn't just build a basketball team. They're trying to develop people. They're trying to develop people. They're trying to develop personalities. I think one of the things that's always impressed me

with that Kentucky thing over the years is those guys are only there for a year most times if they're good, right? It's a very close-knit group regardless, and it really does feel like a culture that Kyle Perry built, and I think they're trying to build it with the Kn regardless. And it really does feel like a culture that Calipari built. And I think they're trying to build it with the Knicks.

And you bring in Thibodeau, who's a tough, demanding coach. So you have to know that the players you bring in are going to be okay and be able to deal with them. John Calipari is a tough, demanding coach. And there's no BS to Cal.

He goes at them, but he also treats them like men. So you know these guys that they can deal with Calipari. They can deal with a Thibodeau. Same thing like an R.J. Barrett. Mike Krzyzewski, for as smooth as he is and his great reputation,

he's a tough, demanding coach. So R.J. Barrett, he's going to be able to deal with a guy like Tom Thibodeau because they've had it before. And those guys want to be coached, and they want to be coached hard if it means that they're going to win basketball games. Well, what

a time for New York sports right now. The Mets swinging the big Lindor Carrasco trade. They have an owner who's finally spending money. Looks like the Jets are going to end up with a quarterback. The Giants have a little momentum. Brooklyn is interesting even though, you can attest to this.

I was going to ask you this anyway. There was a little buzz about, oh, the Brooklyn ratings have been better than the Knicks ratings for the first week. It's like, stop. It's a Knicks town. The Nets are never taking New York. It's never happening. There's too many Knicks fans. They're not switching. Just explain that to people.

Hey, there's always one team. I'm a huge Mets fan. Crazy. I was almost going to, after the trade came up, I was going to cancel my appearance today because I needed to go out and celebrate because I was fired up about my Mets. But even as a lifelong Mets fan, it's a Yankee town.

I mean, the Mets are great, and the fans love the Mets, and when they're good, the city's a buzz. But it's a Yankee town, and it's the same thing. Always be a Knick town. Now, the Nets, you know're good, the city's a buzz, but it's a Yankee town and it's the same always be a Nick town. Now the Nets, you know, they are fun to watch. And those two players, they're as, as talented as an offensive duo as the league has. And that includes LeBron and AD that includes any of those guys. It's, it's amazing what they can do. And it's going to be fascinating to me. They're one of the real fascinating teams to watch because how is that going to play out during the course of a year with these two guys who are both alpha dogs, you know, and then the rest of the team, are they going to stand around and watch?

Can they incorporate them? It's going to be a great watch and they should be one of the premier teams in the league, but it will always, always. The bummer for what you do for a living is you can pick up on some of this when you're there. You know, like that, like the Brooklyn stuff, the Kyrie KD thing, the which bench guys aren't happy. You're sitting courtside. You can actually get a vibe for some of this stuff. I think when you're, when you're doing it remotely, you're basically, you're in the same situation I am at this point. You're just guessing on TV. I, that's the part I really missed about, and we're going to talk about the bubble after the break, but the bubble was so great but not being there uh i

really missed the the vibe of some of the things i really wish i could have gone to some of those games and i know you're behind like you're in plexiglass and in a bubble or whatever you were broadcast from but at least you were had a somewhat of a vibe there's there's so much you miss it's it's incredible and i've i've learned that very quickly doing some of these games at home you know i've always people ask me around the draft time about what do you think this player what do you think that player and i always say i've never seen him in person so i'm not going to even evaluate him until you see a guy in person and you see his body language and you see how how hard he plays um it's for me it's impossible to evaluate and it's it's been a challenge trying to call games off a monitor

because there's so much normally you pick up that's just not there yeah you've missed you've had a couple where you thought the ball went in but it it was an air ball that hits the net there was there was calls you didn't realize happened because, you know, you're just watching a monitor. That's why I'm wearing these now. It's it was a Rockets game. And the corner we were looking at was it was right like in the corner with a plexiglass attached. And Eric Gordon takes the three and I confidently say, Gordon, for three, it's good. Eric Gordon from downtown is like a second of silence. And Jeff Van Gutti goes,

Mike, it was an air ball. I was watching. That was hilarious. I realized I needed glasses, number one. And number two, it's not the same as when your court's up. All right. We're going to take a break, then talk about that quick. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember.

You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event,

or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. So a couple of fun things have happened to Mike Breen, broadcaster, over the last six, seven years. One is that basketball is just, I think, it feels just bigger,

but it's also being captured in these little sound bites and YouTube clips and TikToks and Instagram clips, things like that. So a lot of your calls seem to have this shelf life, you know, like my favorite Mike Breen call ever, when Curry hits the 40-footer to win the game, you gave it the double bang, which I think, I don't know how many double bangs you've given. It's really, you're bestowing a double bang.

How many have there been? There's three? What were the other two? Well, one was just in the bubble. Luka Doncic hit the shot at the buzzer. Oh, yeah. Yes. Three in the playoffs. And the other one, believe it or not, was,

was an Eric Gordon one. It was the game against the Lakers. It was just one of those games that even though it was a regular season game, you know, they were throwing haymakers at each other and it was such a big game for both. And Gordon, the Rockets were trailing and Gordon hit a three pointer, like out of nowhere with a shot clock. And it wasn't, again,

those aren't anything I planned. It just was like, you get caught up. It's the accumulation of a, a thrilling game. And it came out three. There've been three. Well,

so, so you're living on with that stuff, but now my son who's 13, who's been playing 2k really really it saved him during the pandemic. He's really into it. And for some reason has decided to, as he's playing these games, it's like it's you, but like with a dash of Mauro Ranallo, just a dash. So he'll make the three and be like, bang, bang, my God, bang.

And it's like Mauro more or less had a son. But the bang really translates in the video game generation. And all his friends are doing it. But when did you first start doing the bangs? Was that like at the beginning or did you add it mid-career? No, I started it when I was in college at Fordham at the college radio station. I started yelling it when I was a Fordham fan in the stands, when a Fordham player would hit, cause I'd go to all the games, you know,

it's my school. So if a Fordham player hit a long distance shot, and there weren't threes back then, um, I would, I would yell bang as a fan. And then I started using a little bit on the air at Fordham. And then I was doing these high school games of the week, uh, first for a radio station of the Kipsey and then Sports America, and I would use it. And then I stopped using it for a while. I didn't know if it worked.

And then I went back to it again. But as you know, I'm not the first one to use it. Johnny Most used it. Now, I didn't know that at the time when I started using it. And one year I'm doing a Celtic game, and I get word through Howie Singer, who's the longtime producer director for the Knicks on MSG, just one of the great pros in the business. Howie told, he was friends with Jamie Most, Johnny's son, and Jamie told him and Howie told me, passed it by.

So the next playoff game, when I said three for a Celtic three, I paid tribute to Johnny, you know, the old Johnny Most used to say that as well. So he did it. There were a couple of other guys, Steve Holman, the Hawks announcer has used it. Jay Howard, a former Spurs announcer has used it. But back in the day when I started using it, you'd never heard of any other local announcers. They didn't have that back then. So I'm thinking it's original. It turns out it wasn't, but it's, you know, it's, it's served me fairly well, but I have one story for my, my oldest son, who's now 29. One year I'm walking up and he's in his room and I hear him and he's like

doing fake play by play of a Nick game. And when I walked in, I said, Hey, I said, let me hear it. Let me hear some of it. And he's like, no, dad, I don't want to do it. I said, no, just, just let me hear one call. So his call was, it was Alan Houston was on the Knicks at the time. He goes, Alan Houston, what's up the three. It's good. The Knicks win. The Knicks win. He did John Sterling. You know, you said the Johnny most bang thing. You triggered like a weird memory, repressed memory of listening to something games. He didn't do it with the gusto you did.

It was more like a bird from three bang. Right, exactly. It was like the low-key monotone bang, but you have the excited bang. Right, exactly. I just save it for the end. Part of it is, for me, Bill, is at the end of the game with the crowd, when the crowd's there going crazy, you can't have your voice way up here for a long call. Very few voices can do that. I don't have one of those deep baritone voices that I can do it. So the big moments to

me, the more concise call, the better, because you want to bring in the crowd sound. I think that always enhances a great call. So bangs in one syllable word, you can't get more concise than that. So to me, it worked in a big of, of being able to be short and quick and then letting the crowd take over. So the greatest game you've done is still game six Spurs heat 2013, right? I mean, that's the best, that's the best non Boston basketball game I've ever been to. Um, I would say that and that and the game seven in 2016, because what it meant to Cleveland.

Yeah. You know, that city that was so desperate. Again, the series was three, one Golden State was up. And then all of a sudden it turned. So those two are definitely up there. Well, you got to call the block in the 2016 game. And then you had the incredible Ray Allen shot, which I think we all knew it was going in like a second and a half. I, even as he was getting ready to launch it,

it was like, Oh my God, this is going to go in. It was, it was the weirdest thing. Collectively, everybody kind of felt like it was going in. I mean, you have headphones on, you probably don't remember that, but, um, I just felt like it was going in. Well, the beauty of, you know, for years, whether we played in Seattle, Milwaukee, Boston, Miami, I would go to the arena. I always go to the arena really early, two and a half to three hours before the game.

And one game that he played in, that when I got to the arena, he wasn't already on the court shooting and in that spot often. So the arena, he wasn't already on the court shooting and in that spot often. So if there was anybody that was capable, talk about, you know, muscle memory, he must've taken a hundred thousand shots. He practiced that shot. He practiced the back pedal corner three. Right. It's it's so it was not a surprise that he was able to do it. The thing is, though, and still to this day, if you go stand in that corner, there's just no room.

And so many players, when they catch, take that step back before they go. That's why there's so many out-of-bounds calls on players along the sideline. And it's more narrow than it seems from the television when you get up there. And his ability to just plant his feet, it was all muscle memory. So in the bubble, the people that I knew that were at some of these games, especially in the last couple rounds, said they were incredible. And it's a weird thing to talk about and be like, oh, my God, you won't believe it. Because it's kind of sad that we have to play in a bubble.

There's a million things going on with the country and it's not something people want to brag about. This was an incredible experience. But at the same time, the basketball and the intensity of it and the way the benches were locked in almost like Final Four style and kind of trying to replace the energy

and not having fans there. It really did feel like there was something special about it. What do you remember now that it's been, now that we're a few months away from it, like just that whole experience? Well, the first thing is like five minutes before the game, and this includes a finals game,

you're sitting ready to call an NBA finals game, and it's so quiet. You just hear guys warming up. That was just so strange, so surreal. And it's so quiet. You just hear guys warming up. That was just so strange, so surreal. And it was the same thing afterwards, except for when the Lakers won. At the end of a finals game, end of any playoff game, game ends, buzzer sounds, guys high five, dead silence, there's nobody there. It just, it was so weird. But once the ball went up, and I think one of the reasons the bubble worked so well was because the games mattered so much. I think if you had to have a whole regular season, the seeding games,

if you remember the seeding games, there were some bizarre results. I mean, obviously they were getting acclimated, but the games didn't mean as much. They were just kind of trying to get in condition. There were some awful games in the seeding games. But once the playoffs started meant something, there was something raw about how hard they were going at each other.

And it just made you think of a lot of these guys. This is why they fell in love with the game so much. Because the competition, you know, the desire to beat your buddy in the park, it was almost like the same thing. It reminded me a little bit about when you go down to the park and there'd be that a game that that guys were just going at each other there were no other distractions nothing else except the game that's all that

mattered and i couldn't believe how how well the the brand of ball was so good once the playoff started again uneven before but so good when it it started. And my concern for me personally was, are you going to have the same energy without a crowd? It was no problem doing those games in the bubble. Well, you have the headset on anyway. If anything, you're trying to tune out the crowd sometimes. I don't think people realize how hard it is to hear when you guys are announcing those games.

When it gets really, really loud, you can barely hear the person next to you through the headset. how hard it is to hear when you guys are announcing those games, when it gets really, really loud, like you, you can barely hear the person next to you through the headset, you know, if it's hitting certain peak levels. So from that, from that aspect, it's probably like a distraction that's taken away. Although I like sometimes to do, you know, you have the headset on and say the mic's on this side. I like to take the headset off on one ear just to get a of what the building sounds like when you call on the gang um because you do that it drowns i mean the headsets

now are they're unbelievable how they cancel the noise yeah so to kind of a feel of just how loud the place is if you remove one one side it's uh it gives you it's still to this i've been doing it a long time bill and i still get chills on on big games when the place is going crazy. There's nothing like it. Absolutely nothing like it. Well, especially you made the key point about the finals. I think, and I was like you, I, I love to get there early. I loved watching the guys warm up and, you know, there's hundreds of people on the court or in the first few rows,

and they're watching these dudes, and there's people from all different countries, and there's, you know, Spanish broadcasters and broadcasters from France and Japan, and it just feels big. It feels like an event. It's like we're in the finals, you know, and I think the Super Bowl can do that a little bit too, but where it just, it just kind of feels bigger things, slow, the pace of the game's different, the halftime's

longer where it doesn't feel like a typical game. I, that would have was always struck me that finals energy you get. And especially before like a game six or a game seven where oh my god my first finals you know six i remember walking out on the court and seeing all these people i i was overwhelmed like my nerves shot up and i was nervous enough going in didn't sleep the night before and now you see all these people and you realize the magnitude and i was nervous early in the game. And I had gotten one of the executives that told me, hey, listen, you're calling a finals game now. It's different than any other game. You're going to have a lot of casual fans. And you have to make sure that they're understanding what's going on. And I'm like, they don't understand. No, you got to make sure. You might have to explain

things more. So now I have this in my head. I'm nervous enough. The crowd is there. So I start the game and I'm thinking about casual fans. And I might be exaggerating here, but I think I said something like, here's a foul. He's going to, he's now going to go to the free throw line. He'll take two shots without any defender. You know, it's something so, so stupid in terms of obvious.

And Yubi, I was doing a game with Yubi that year. He could sense that I was so nervous. And after the first time out, I'll never forget this. He grabs my arm and he says, hey, kid, just call the game like you always do. All right? You'll be fine. And that completely settled me down. And right after that, I went in and just started calling the game.

But the way he grabbed my arm and the way he's like, he was coaching me. It's one of the coolest memories I have. What was, what was the most intense? Was it like the last two minutes of that 2016 game seven?

Just from an intensity slash, you could hear the fear and apprehension in the crowd. Cause that's another piece of some of these big games and that, that warriors game seven is so fascinating to rewatch because it's really terrible. The last five minutes terribly played, but incredibly dramatic. Nobody can make a shot. It's actually there's like too much pressure and you could feel it and sense

it, but can you sense it when you're announcing it? Or is there too much going on? Oh no, that's such a great point. It's so true. And it's impossible to put into words. I mean, you know, the tension that you can feel it's so palpable, how you can feel the tension. You can feel the pressure in those games. That meant 2016 game seven was like that, like the last five minutes, 2013 game six was the same thing. Yep.

It was so much going on in terms of, you know, LeBron desperate to, to, to get that back-to-back championship and San Antonio, not that they were celebrating, but they had it in the bag. It was,

you know, the ropes come up the whole thing. There was so many things. It just was, we had the fans who left, who are now coming back in. It just, um,

what about the ropes? They were bringing the ropes out. Right, right. So it's just, you know, at those moments, you do, you get goosebumps. And from my standpoint, you don't want to get so overhyped where you just hyperventilate

when you're making the call. And that takes a couple of times of going through it before you know it. I think the first playoff game I ever called that went down to the wire, my voice was probably way up here. You just, you get so, you hyperventilate and you get overwhelmed by

the emotion. And then slowly but surely you kind of get used to the big moment and get a little more comfortable. But that feeling that your heart pounding, that never goes away. Before we go, I think you and Van Gundy really need to push the envelope this year on the instant replay reviews. They they're out of control. I don't know why they're doing it.

I Jeff, every year it goes 10% further with his disgust for them, but man, I just don't get it. I don't, I don't understand the risk reward for it where sometimes these games have such a great groove and then they just stop for five minutes as we're trying to decide whether something was a block or a charge for, you know, in super duper slow motion. It's like at some point, what's, what's the point of this? And then you guys have to fill time the whole time. The whole thing is just weird. I don't like it as a fan. Yeah. It's, it's taken on a life of its own.

I understand, you know, sometimes it can be important, but at the most important time of a game, it completely stops the momentum. And that's the most beautiful time for a fan. That's the most exciting time. You know, it's like if you watch the end of a Stanley Cup playoff game, the last two minutes, it's just, even if you're not a big hockey fan, you're on the edge of your seat, and you're like that in an NBA game,

and you're on the edge of your seat, and then all of a sudden review, okay, okay, and then another review, and it just kills the momentum. So I know they're trying to tweak it. I know they're worried about it might be too much, so hopefully they'll come up with something to make it a little bit easier to do at those end of games, because it's, you know, I know each call is important, but the game is, is coached, played and reffed by human beings who make mistakes. Come on. It's, it's not going to kill everything. I'd really noticed it when we, the first three months of the pandemic,

and then the last dance was happening. We were just trying to get content. So we were doing podcasts about old Michael Jordan games. And I was watching a lot of the nineties bulls games and the flow of the last five minutes was just better. It just was. And it really, it really built to stuff and the tension really grew. And the only thing that was really stopping it was the timeouts. And I didn't miss the replay reviews at all. And there were only a couple of times in any of those games where there was even a call that you would go, eh, they probably would have switched that one. But you know, if it's foot on the three point line, or if it's that shot went in after the shot clock expired, I get it. You can also review that really quick. When we start litigating, whether somebody's body had completely stopped as he was taking a charge, that's when.

Anyway, I hope they fix it. The one problem is going to be is that, you know, something that, say, they have in place as a replay in a huge playoff game, in maybe a seventh game of a series or even a finals, and they don't go to it and it's clear. And if they would have gone to it, then you're going to have the uproar because they say, hey, we have the technology now to do it. We have to do it. So, I mean, I see both sides, but I'm more leaning towards the more we go along,

we can't add any more to it. We've got to, I think, maybe take back because it does hurt the momentum at the end of games. Well, Mike Breen, I really hope I get to see you in round three or round four this year. I hope life has become normal enough by July that I can point to you on the court on one of these games and we could just be like, holy shit, we made it. Life is normal again. I mean, there's like a 20% chance.

Or maybe even get to shake hands after we see each other. Elbow bump. or maybe even get to shake hands after we see each other the elbow bump i pray every night for that bill every night because i mean i've always you know the fans i've always understood a guy had a line about a month ago and i can't remember who it was and he said fans are the oxygen of sports and it's so true uh i've always appreciated them, but not as much as I should have. And their absence has shown me just how important they are to what we do and our enjoyment of sports. Well, you can feel it during these regular season games because there's, I think the blowouts are, it's 25% of the games are blowouts with this kind of empty arena thing where a team can just check out with no repercussions, right?

Nobody's watching anyway. It was like, ah, shit, we're down 20. All right, I'm done. And you're seeing teams check out in second halves in ways that I don't

really feel like we've seen it before. And, you know, fans are holding you accountable one way or another. Fans are good. I'm still pro fans. Except the Knicks have come back from 18 and 15 point deficits in the second half in their last couple of games. There are exceptions to that.

Right. That Utah game, it looked like that was going to be a grim one. And then all of a sudden you look and it's 85-80 or whatever it was. All right. So I'll see you round three. The pandemic will be over. Celtics-Knicks conference finals. It'll be great.

I can't wait. Thanks for coming out. It was good to see you. Billy, great to see you. Thanks. At Pennzoil, we have one job, pioneering a motor oil so advanced, you don't have to think about your motor oil. Instead, you can think about how your engine sounds,

how your stomach feels as the RPMs build, how your wheels hug the curves, and how, with the Pennzoil Platinum up to 15-year, 800,000-kilometer protection guarantee, your adventures will be many. Pennzoil. Long may we drive. Available at your local Canadian tire. Enrollment required. Keep your receipts. Other conditions apply.

See Pennzoil.ca slash warranty for full details. This episode is brought to you by Coca-Cola Creations. You love the taste of Coca-Cola and love the cookie crunch of Oreos. But what happens when the best drink and the best cookie in the world get together? The best becomes besties. Try the new Coca-Cola Zero Sugar Oreo Limited Edition.

Besties for a limited time. Taste it while it lasts. Copyright 2024. The Coca- it lasts. Copyright 2024. The Coca-Cola Company. Copyright 2024. Mondelez International Group. All right. Peter Schrager is here from Good Morning Football on the NFL Network,

as well as the Fox coverage of the football playoffs, which start this weekend. Every time you've come on, I've done pretty well on the picks. So that was really the, the, the biggest deciding factor is like, we did well last week. We're going to do it again. Wanted to go through some gambling manifesto rules with you before we get to the six games. We have six games. The goal used to be to go 11 and O against the spread. Now it's 13 and O, which feels unrealistic, but we're going to try anyway. The Playoff Gambling Manifesto, last time I updated it was three years ago. I grabbed a

couple rules. Rule number three, don't talk yourself into a nobody believes in us team. I know the team. Well, acknowledging that, be careful of the nobody believes in us factor because we saw it happen last year with Tennessee, Yeah. But you can't talk yourself into it. It has to organically happen. So do you have an idea who that team might be? Yes. And I could tell you on the record that the coach has already referred to his team as that. Ron Rivera is leaning into it saying, what do the experts know?

No one's given us a shot. What do the experts know? That is your nobody. And they're so young and they're all buying in. So his whole thing is no one wants us to win the NFL. You know, all the experts know that is your nobody and they're so young and they're all buying in so his whole thing is no one wants us to win the nfl you know all the experts what the experts never get it always right so rivera is fully fully leaning into the nobody believes in us mantra i feel like he's hit big on that before in a panther season in years past so he understands the power we're seven eight and one one year and i know I think it was either Skelton or Lindley

they played in the playoff game, but they were an under 500 team and they won a playoff game a few years back with the Panthers. It was all about nobody believes in us. That's a great example of rule number three. Don't talk yourself into nobody believes in this team. I will not be talking myself into Washington because Alex

Smith can't move. Cleveland and Chicago were the other two candidates. Cleveland cup in a second rule number five, but where of the, everybody believes in us team, which unfortunately is the team I like the most right now. The team we talked about extensively last week, the Buffalo bills. Absolutely. Everyone's believing them. That feels like there's no doubt. The only thing with them is that it's an early saturday noon start the first time they've had a home playoff game since 1996 you almost want to make sure they come out fired up ready to go it's one of these deals where it's like all right are they gonna wake up on time early game east coast i know they got fans but it

it just seems like it's right away here we go you know yeah are you you dealing with a little domestic distraction in the background this is fantastic for fuck's sake what a pro you are do you hear that this is great do you understand what this okay to take it right to parent corner for you right here this is a brooklyn apartment we've got two parents working from home we've got a four-year-old working on remote learning and i'm just trying to get some peace and quiet to do a podcast with a legend like yourself. You just want to do football picks. I'm not worried about the Buffalo everybody believes in us yet. But I am worried about it next week because I think they're going to look good this week. Rule number six is

don't pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe it can win. That leaves us with Chicago, Washington, Indy. Mark those down. And another one, right? There's another one. Which one? There's a team out in Los Angeles that we believe that they might be able to win. Yeah, but there are three and a half points. I think that's attainable.

Rule number eight is beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they subscribe to the TB12 method. That's hilarious. Rivers and Roethlisberger, two old QBs in cold weather unless they subscribe to the TB12 method. That's hilarious. Rivers and Roethlisberger, two old QBs, and it's going to be cold this weekend. Freezing in both locales. You're right.

Okay. Put it down. Mark that down. Rule number 10, when in doubt, gravitate toward one pick that would A, screw over the most gamblers and experts and B would definitely go against the single worst gambler, you know? So, um, I think one of those picks would be indie winning outright, because I think everybody, including myself later in this podcast is going to put Buffalo in a tease indie winning outright would screw that over. But I think the bigger one is the Saints.

I just want to flag the Saints because they're in, a lot of people have them in teases and parlays. It's later in the weekend when people start chasing money and start trying to chase the easy, safer bets. And I feel like the Saints could be the, and it would be like, oh, Trubisky, he sucks. He's never going to win. That's the fifth game of the day.

It's right when people are really starting to chase. And I do feel like that could be a screw-over team. What do you think? Look, are we going to go into that game in more depth or do you want to just get right into the Saints right now? We're doing it in one second. There's a whole theory on the Saints. This is all or nothing for the Saints.

And I almost wonder if they put too much pressure on making it all or nothing this week. But let's keep going. Rule number 11 is don't ever talk yourself into a terrible QB ever for any reason. We have a lot of terrible QBs. Yes, we do. Trubisky, whoever's going to QB the Rams, Alex Smith. Rule number 13, it's before you wager on a team, make sure Marty Schottenheimer not involved. Herm Edwards, Wade Phillips, North Turner, Andy Reed, who I guess is now off a rule

number 13 because he won a Super Bowl. Yeah. Dan Quinn. Okay. John Fox, Jason Garrett, anyone named Mike, anyone described as Andy Reed's pupil and anyone with the last name Maura, make sure any of those people are not their head coach. I think we're okay. You're great, but there's an amazing connection here. North Turner's son, Scott Turner, is the offensive coordinator in Washington. Oh, that's great.

And Marty Schottenheimer's son, Brian Schottenheimer, is the offensive coordinator in Seattle. Is there genetics involved? So let me think about this. I feel like it should transfer generations because I do have, yeah, I think that could be maybe an addendum to rule number 13.

Well, the great thing is I'm going against both of those people. Rule number 15, don't try to be a hero, just try to win money. That's a very important lesson. Don't try to be a hero. Just bang out wins.

Just, you're a baseball player. Just go two for four. Just get on base. Rule number 16, take one last look at the quarterbacks. And rule number 17, Just bang out wins. Just, just you're a baseball player. Just go two for four. Just get on base. Rule number 16, take one last look at the quarterbacks and rule number 17. This is an important one. There's plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach. This is the Blake Bortles theory. Blake Bortles that one year he was in the playoffs.

Everybody was so excited to bet against him. It's like, you don't, you're going to have your chance. It's going to happen. You don't, it doesn't have to be this him. It's like, you're going to have your chance. It's going to happen. It doesn't have to be this round. It might be next round. So in this case with Jared Goff with a broken thumb, you don't have to rush to bet on him this week if he ends up being the starter.

They might win. Then you might get him next week. So just be careful. Play the long game. Any other rules before we get to the picks? Or those all sound good to you? No, the only thing is the fans versus no fans in a playoff

situation. Does that play in a rule? Some of these stadiums have them, some of them don't. Home field matters, home field doesn't. The Superdome is the Superdome. The Superdome with no fans is not the Superdome. Those things kind of lurk. It used to be you never win a playoff game there.

Well, the last two times they hosted playoff games, they lost. And this year, it's a 4 o'clock on a Sunday and there's no fans. So two things with home field advantage. Just lessons from the year. It seems like the altitude mattered. There were a couple times when teams went to Denver

and it did seem like it affected them. Or same thing where it's like 85 degrees and they start wilting when they're in Florida or Tennessee, things like that. We're not going to have to worry about that. Um, from, from like a, a locale standpoint, I think it would matter if it's turf, right? If you have a, like if you have the chiefs on turf, that's a good thing for the chiefs, like certain fast teams. I think Buffalo would be really good on turf, right? On turf. Yep. But that's really it. I don't, I don't, other than that, I don't think the fans I'm with you,

they won't play a big, you know, the twelves in Seattle play such a huge role in the playoffs. Pete Carroll's never lost a home playoff game with Seattle, but again, fans not there. What does that mean for what they, I mean, It's all stuff that you can play tricks in your head because it affects the other team too. That's a good one to mention because if it was the Rams going to Seattle and you either had injured Jared Goff or John Wolford

going against the 12th man and the noise and dealing with all the stuff that comes with being in a huge playoff game in a loud locale, I'd be way more nervous to take them than I would be just to take them in a neutral site. All right, we're going through all the games. We'll do them in order. And, uh, we're starting with Buffalo Indy.

Buffalo has been the hottest team in the league for 10 weeks. Number one in weighted DVO way. They've scored 303 points in their last eight games, 37.9 points a game. They fourth, the DVO DVA overall Indy's 10th, the Indy thing. So I, I, I really kicked the tires on this because there's a lot of Indy as, Oh, that line's too high. And I think it probably is too high because they know a lot of people like Buffalo. So maybe the line should be four, four and a half. I think it's an extra two points because they know people like Buffalo. They were trying to talk to sentimental thing too.

Yeah. Indy only played three top 12 defenses this year. Okay. They scored five touchdowns total in those games. Their points in the second half, Chicago, six points. They scored Baltimore zero Baltimore, Pittsburgh three. Those are the 3 top 12 defenses they played Buffalo as the 12th defense

I think it got better as it went along now you throw in cold weather Rivers it's going to be somewhere 36 37 degrees on Saturday Rivers 1 and 3 in the playoffs when it's cold I don't like Rivers anyway he would really bum me out to talk myself

in the Colts 6 and a half and then Phil Rivers does Phil Rivers stuff and then you're going He would really bum me out to talk myself into Colts six and a half. And then Phil Rivers does Phil Rivers stuff. And then you're going against a Buffalo team that I think we both feel like is the best team. I've been on the podcast twice this season. I was really excited in week 13. And last week, I was ready to jump through a wall for them. A couple injury updates.

Again, we're recording this on a Thursday. I think Diggs goes. I don't know if Cole Beasley goes. I don't know if that's a huge deal. Cole's important to them. It's a deal. Cole's had some games when he was the best receiver on the field. It's a deal. And he's also been in the playoffs and is one of those veteran

guys. Buckner on Indianapolis, very good player, disruptor, hasn't practiced much. I think he's going to tough it out and he will play. So you keep that in consideration. To me, it's all just, is this going to be the year for Buffalo? If they can just come out of the gates and do what they've done every game in that first quarter and just put their foot to the pedal, they'll be fine. They'll roll.

They'll be okay. It's whether or not the jitters come out. And I don't think, I mean, they've beaten New England twice and they beat Miami last week when a lot of people were like, are they gonna be able to, they pounded them. And then the biggest game was the Pittsburgh game on the Sunday night or Monday

night where they played them and they absolutely housed them. I don't see them having any jitters. I feel like the fans, this was the quote I got, which was kind of like cheesy, but slash I loved it. And I think I might even say like, these fans haven't seen this team yet. And then the response is, well, this team hasn't seen these fans yet.

You know, like they're about to go nuts. Like this thing is so bottled up and they are so excited to see this 2020 Buffalo Bills team that that momentum, it just might be, even if it's seven, it's like, you know, 300, like the 300, uh, you know, the 6,700 might as well be 50,000 from someone else. That's how loud these guys are going to be and that they just roll on Saturday. One thing I like is that I think if you think of them as the best team in the AFC, which I think they are right now,

this would be like a, you know, the best team would get a bye. This would be a round two home game. The round two home games tend to be more blowout-y. Yeah. You know, and I'm just looking at it like, if we really think this is the best team in the first game, it's usually like a 38 to 20, a 44 to 17, that kind of stuff. I also really like Rivers if the Bills are up like 10

14, 17 late. I don't think Indy's like a come from behind garbage time touchdown team. Because six and a half you start worrying about oh Buffalo's up 13 but Rivers gets the touchdown with a minute left. I'm not as worried about that this time. I don't think you fear Rivers at all and this is no

insult to him and whatever you want to say about his career and his history. Jonathan Taylor had 250 yards on the ground last week, and Quentin Nelson might be the best offensive lineman in football, and Kelly up front, and they are awesome up front, so if you're in a one-score game or a field goal game,

they can grind it out, keep Josh Allen on the bench. That's why, if you're Buffalo, you need to get out early, And I think they will. I think Buffalo's going to roll. And I don't think it's going to be a problem. But this team can run the football and they can eat clock. And that's a problem. Right.

And that's the thing with the Colts. We know the recipe, right? Colts come out, 40 seconds of play. They run the ball. Josh Allen's not on the field. He comes in three now. Oh, Indy, another seven-minute drive. It's 10-3, two minutes left in the second quarter.

Where's this Buffalo offense? Oh, they really missed. I know all the ways it's going to go. I just come back to playoff manifesto. So the cold weather games, do you consider that win that he had as the cold weather one in Baltimore on that that, but that win that he had as the cold weather one in Baltimore on that one? Cause I was at that game. It wasn't like it was frigid

temperatures. I'm picturing the other ones where rivers just as a shell of himself. There was one, there was one where he beat Cincinnati in the playoffs like six years ago. It's true. It's a wild card. You went from way back. So rule number six, don't pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it can win win I don't think Indy can win And I'm just not taking a team In the playoffs with seven points or less If I don't think they can win I don't think they're good enough

And I think their record And some of the stuff they did this year Is a little shifted By just the schedule they played The Baltimore game, what was the 24-10 game? That was a really, 10 game? That was a really illuminated game. They scored the first touchdown.

They couldn't, they couldn't do anything. Couldn't move it. And that was the one where there's the, the fumble or the pick and then rivers got, got jumped over. Like it was bad. And then, you know,

this is their defensive coordinator. Matt Eberflus is interviewing for all these jobs. Like he's a hot name. I couldn't, I couldn't tell you much about him other than, you know, his resume and what people say about him. This is one of those games. If Matt Eberflus

can somehow stop the Buffalo Bills, you are a head coach. That's how this goes. You are a head coach. If he doesn't, then it's probably, I don't know, if a defensive coach is going to get a job after losing in the wild card round. It's that important for a head coach. This could be that game.

I don't know if they've got, I don't know if they can scheme up a way to stop this amazing, amazing Buffalo offense. No Beasley scares me a little bit. I still feel like we'll see him, though. He might. He might. I just, he hasn't practiced. He hasn't been out there.

And I just, I fear that it will be no Beasley. But they're really good. I don't know if they need him. We're going to take a break. Then we're going to do the other two Saturday games. What's the feeling of fall? It's finally catching the sunrise. And not because you

woke up early. No, you woke up nice and late. And you know what? The sun waited. Then you went and got what you love from Starbucks. The new pecan crunch oat latte and new baked apple croissant, and enjoyed that warm apple filling and those nutty flavors with rich brown buttery notes while the sun rose just for you.

That's the feeling of fall, and it's only at Starbucks. All right, second game of the weekend is the one that I have had the toughest one trying to figure out Ram Seahawks. Rams are three and a half point underdogs in Seattle. Seattle was fifth in DVOA, but 16th defensively. The Rams were, I think they were ninth. They were 10th offense, fourth defense, 30 special teams. Mark that one down Rams since week six, averaging less than 20 points a game. You could make an argument that they have a crap QB and a crap special

teams, which is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs. Week 10, these two teams played. Rams won 23-16. Week 16, they played again. Seahawks won 20-9. The last six quarters, the last six quarters of Rams Seattle, the Rams have scored of Ram Seattle. Yeah.

The Rams have scored 15 points total. Yep. And with all of that said, not even knowing who the quarterback's going to be. I feel like this is a three-point game, and I like grabbing the half point. I think the Rams defense can keep it close. I think they just match up well with Seattle.

They can take out Metcalf. They'll play the two safeties back. They're going to put Jalen Ramsey wherever Metcalf goes, he's going to go. They're going to make Seattle run the ball. I don't think Seattle's

a very good running team. And I think they hang around. And then I don't know what happens, but I think McVay is very capable of creating a game plan that just makes sure the offense doesn't lose the game, which is what he did last week.

Exactly what he did last week. Exactly what he did last week. Here's how I look at it. They lost to the Seahawks two weeks ago. They had an early lead, bad interception. They had four goal line opportunities in the second half, got stopped, and then things got out of control. You look at that and you're like, all right, well, of course, that's how it goes.

That's football. But they don't have any lack of confidence that they can stop this Seahawks team. They've sacked Russell Wilson 11 times this year. Historically McVay beats Pete Carroll. He's only lost twice to him. It was this game.

And then the Thursday night game last year where Zerline should have made a field goal and the Wolford golf thing. I'm saying this again on Thursday. I think Wolford starts. I do. I think if golf can go, maybe you see him in there as well, but I think Wolford they're riding this thing see him in there as well. But I think

Wolford, they're riding this thing and they are hot and they're only worried about this game. They're not worried about off season storylines. And what's it mean if you start Wolford over? They are so dialed into this week that I think they're believing in Wolford. And I think DK Metcalf, the last two times he's played Jalen Ramsey, four catches, 43 yards. I don't think they're scared of Metcalf. I don't think they're scared of Russell Wilson. And I think no fans riding a little bit of momentum with Walford, I think they might win this one outright.

The other thing with Seattle is their offense, after that first four weeks, just hasn't been the same. It hasn't. It does seem like defenses have changed how they play them. They just don't want to get beaten deep by Wilson. That's exactly right. They'll give him anything else. I think the last big game they had was against Arizona, though,

when they lost 37-34, which was a crazy shootout. And that was the Buda Baker game where he came back. But Jamal Adams wants to play. He says he's going to play. If he's got a torn labrum, which I don't know, that's a serious injury for a hard-hitting safety. These are little things that you don't think of, and then the game starts, and you're like, wait,

why is Jamal Adams playing like that, and he's not running all over the place being fearless? Maybe he is fearless, but that could be a career-altering injury if he gets hurt again on it. There's a lot of signs pointing towards don't count out McVay and these Rams. And even if it is Wolford, he had a third and 10 last week

where he was shifty. He moved the chain, did something that Jared Goff simply cannot. And that read option that they were running with him is something that just does not exist on film. And it's nothing the Seahawks have ever prepared for. And it's a whole other wrinkle.

He's not even in the same stratosphere as Russell Wilson. But I tell you, one game with McVay scheming it up, I wouldn't doubt it. The manifesto would say, what the fuck are you doing? Why are you doing this? You're going against Russell Wilson with John Wolford.

The case for it would be he's not any... Goff is just as big of a disaster in most of these big games anyway, and at least he can move around, scramble. They'll have one trick play in them. I I'm almost more worried about some of the special teams issues they've had

than Wolford making the worst play in the planet. But I do think they're gonna be able to run the ball a little bit. And I'm just not sold in the Seahawks. I don't think they've looked that good. 12 and four. I know. You know, it's a 12 and four that nobody feels that good about. I don't even think the looked that good. 12-4. I know. You know, it's like one of those deals.

It's a 12-4 that nobody feels that good about. I don't even think they're Seahawks fans. I got accused. I'm not accused. You get the whole, oh, you're New York-based, you're East Coast-based. I watch every Seahawks game. I just, you don't, I saw them lose to the Giants.

I know they blew out the Jets. I know they won last week, but it felt like the 49ers with nothing to play for took them to the wire. Like, they haven't been convincing 12-4 that you've seen from Seahawks teams in the past. I like getting the extra half point. If this line was

2.5, I'd be a lot more nervous. There's also a Rams money line under Parley. The under is 42.5. That's plus 331. I don't think they're going to score a ton of points. That I was looking at. Yeah, this feels like, what? 17, 16, 19 to 17. 23,

16 maybe. I don't think either team's looking to score a ton of points. I think, of course, the Seahawks would love to pour it on there and it's not going to be able to. Number one defense in the league. Number one scoring defense in the league. Best defensive player in the league in Donald. And Ramsey owns Metcalf. He has

historically. So it's where you get in the points from it's a, it might take a pick six. It might take something like that, but that's what the Rams did last week. All right. Next one, bucks, Washington. We don't have to spend a ton of time on this one. Gibson isn't a hundred percent healthy. Um, Tampa has the second offense. I don't think, I don't think they've solved anything. I think they have at least figured out. We have to make a couple of explosive plays every game that I think this will never be the offense Brady wanted, where it's just, they he's 35 for 42 and they get 30 first

downs. This isn't the offense, but it's an offense that can make four 40 plus yard plays in a game potentially. And that's I think they're kind of embracing that now, right? Yeah, look, they've gotten fat on some really bad teams the last few weeks and that's OK. And I think Brady finished the season with some insane numbers, you know, forty five hundred yards and 40 touchdowns at forty three. And that's fine. The Washington team comes in here hobbled banged up you and cousin sal talked about it alex smith looks like he could barely walk on sunday night i think he goes just knowing alex like he'll go but i i don't know i wouldn't be shocked if he saw heineke at some

point it's just it's gonna be a huge huge huge challenge for them to score points washington i think they can get to brady and it's the method that you know. Big, great defensive line. Hit them around. I just don't know where Washington is scoring points in this one. Alex Smith's last five games. God bless Alex Smith for even coming back. He threw for

162 yards last week. The week before, 57. 296, 149, 166. If you look at his QBR, week by week going backwards, 31.1, 7.9, 38.7, 24.7, and 33.5. He's been sacked in those games 5, 7, 8, 11 times. He doesn't scramble. That's the thing.

It's like, so you have this quarterback who's not mobile, but also isn't really known for like, you know, singing the ball around. Yeah. I just think the Bucks defense is a front runner defense. It's a, it's a defense that on the right fantasy week could have the seven sacks and

the pick six and the, the three interceptions and shit like that. It's a front runner defense that I think if Washington falls from behind, I don't know how they move the ball. They only scored 20 points last week against a Philly defense. That sucks. Third string. The whole storyline this week has been Chase Young and Montez Sweat

and Kerrigan, and they're going to do exactly what JPP and Osi and Tuck did, and they're going to get to the corner. That's exactly what Tuck did. And they're going to get to the quarter. That's exactly what Philly did and Brandon Graham. That's how you beat Brady. What you're not realizing is Devin White's amazing, the linebacker on Buccaneers. Shaq Barrett's awesome. Sue, JPP, Levante David.

There's a very proud front seven. And Todd Bowles is going to attack Alex Smith because he might be less mobile than Tom Brady. My question to you is in the broadcast booth, Tony Dungy calling Tom Brady's playoff game. How do you see that going? I'm just trying to remember all the times we beat Tony Dungy in a playoff game. I can't remember if it was double figures or not. I'm not worried about that piece.

To me, this is the easiest game of the week. I don't see how Washington gets to 13 points. They would need an offensive touchdown. And I don't see how Washington gets to 13 points. They would need an offensive touchdown. And I don't see how Tampa scores less than 20. They're going to get a couple of big plays. The Mike Evans thing, that's the only red flag. Because if I were them, I wouldn't play. I think he's going to play.

I think he'll go. I do. I think he'll play. The initial returns that I'm hearing are a lot better than what you saw on Sunday. They're dialed in. I don't think Tom Brady's going to lose in the first round again. That was last year with a different storyline. I think they're dialed in.

It's no insult to Washington. Very good season. Great story. All due respect, I just don't see the offense scoring enough points. And if you look at the history of the lousy playoff team, kind of upset in the apple cart and be like, oh my God, a seven and nine team just want to play off game, all that stuff. It's usually a team that could at least move the ball offensively, right?

Matt Hasselbeck, the beast mode game, they scored 41 points in that game. They, they actually could move the ball. Sure. Washington can't move the ball. And that's the difference. Washington is not going to be able to move the ball in this game. In my opinion, it's hard to really legitimately rally around Washington after what you saw Sunday night in a must-win game against a team that was openly tanking and had

guys who do want to be there. Yeah. Uh, Sunday. Oh, before. So those three games on Saturday, Buffalo Indy Rams, Seahawks, Bucks, Washington. I always like when I look in the playoffs, I like to look at everything and like there's usually one chalk game. There's one chalk day and then there's one wacky day. Okay. I don't think this is the wacky day. I think the wacky day could happen on Sunday. Rams beating Seahawks.

I think this could be the more conventional. Rams beating Seahawks would be, I think it would be like a table turner for a lot of people. It'd be like, holy crap, Wolford just beat Russell Wilson But you're saying you're not taking that game You're saying it's going to be less than three and a half I'm saying Even like the scenario of them winning

It's not crazy Wouldn't it be something that would shock people If they win that game it'll just be an ugly game It'll be 17-12 It'll be wow It'll kind of suck to watch. You're right. You're absolutely right. But you go to these Sunday games and we have Baltimore, Tennessee, we have St. Strabisky and then Cleveland, Pittsburgh. It's a wild day. No coaching staff. That feels

like the crazy day. It's a fun day. Okay. So you agree with that? Yeah. Sunday, Baltimore, Tennessee, which I can't believe this is the first game. This should have been the third game. They should have flipped Steelers BrownBrowns with this game. I don't know. Why would they do that? It's so good. I don't know why they haven't yet. It's not like you can flex out, I guess, because the networks are different.

This one's the only ESPN-ABC game. It's already been assigned. And then Al and Chris are going to be on the Sunday night, so they couldn't flex it. Okay. Baltimore's favored by three. In Tennessee. In Tennessee. Baltimore, seventh at DVOA. Tennessee

is 14th. They have the fourth offense, the 29th defense. Tennessee's given up 30 plus points eight times. It's going to be cold there. It'll be around 40 degrees. These teams played last year in the playoffs. You might remember. Tennessee

beat them up. They played in you might remember Tennessee beat them up. They played in week 11, Tennessee beat them in overtime, beat them up. The narrative is Tennessee owns Baltimore. I'm going to pick that apart for one second here. So that week 11 game, I watched it. Baltimore had a Pittsburgh game looming on Thanksgiving four days later. And I always think that's a really tough, that Sunday game when the other team is about to play, when the team's going to play four days later,

I always kind of mark that one down with a grain of salt because it's hard. Those guys are like, you know, it's a huge game, but then they have another huge game four days later. They had no Calais Campbell, no Brandon Williams, no John Brown. Des Bryant actually like caught passes. Ravens had a 21-10 lead in the third quarter. They had a first and goal in the last two minutes to win the game. And they called some shitty plays, but they should have ended the game.

It should have been over. They lose the coin flip. Tennessee comes down. Tennessee wins an OT. I think it's going to be different this time Couple things They were up 21-10 And Lamar threw a terrible interception Terrible

And it changed the entire game You said John Brown You meant Hollywood Brown It's fine Huge difference maker for this one Yeah, my bad. I got my brown space there. But knowing the aggregators, as you call them,

we would be hearing about it for six weeks if we didn't address it. The deal that he has right now is... And then Lamar, say what you want. I've done a lot of work on Lamar the last few weeks because they played these terrible teams and they won three games.

Everyone's in the red hot. He had COVID-19. He was in bad shape. They played Cleveland. He runs to the bathroom. Everyone thinks he's crapping his pants or whatever. The truth was he had severe cramps because he was battling the coronavirus. They fluid him up, comes out there, completes that pass. Baker comes all the way back. They go and get the win in overtime or at the end of regulation whatever it is he's been lights out since and they think in baltimore like a like it clicked and this is a it's not that it's anything against but like he's finally himself again and he is playing carefree and this is the lamar jackson we saw when he was at his very best last year if you remember the first time they played this season, they had that weird thing where the Titans were warming up on the Ravens logo before the game,

and Harbaugh came over and was like, get out of this, and then Vrabel played Vrabel tough guy and was like, no, you get out of here. Then after the game, there was a handshake slash not handshake. These teams hate each other. And the Ravens have such vitriol towards the Titans, the way the Titans loom over them. I think the Ravens are going to come out a little differently this time

than they did the past two. I like when a good offense goes against a bad defense. Tennessee's defense is awful. It's awful. So if you're worried about Lamar, Lamar's in the greatest possible situation in this game where he should play well.

He's on good momentum and everybody's like, including myself, oh, they've only played bad teams. Tennessee, one half of their team is bad. That's the team that he's playing against. The Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, that's the defense has to worry about that. Their defense is better than it was in week 11. It just is. It is. They're flying around. They, I mean is better than it was in week 11. It just is.

It is. They're flying around. They, I mean, again, it was Cincinnati, so it's hard to do a gauge on it, but Cincinnati had won two straight games. I think,

um, Brandon Allen went one for 11 on third downs at a zero quarterback rating. Like they destroyed them last week and they're playing with such confidence and they're playing with such a juice. I, they want this game really badly. And it has nothing to do with Lamar's legacy. And if he loses, then he's suddenly 0-3 in the playoffs

like again one week at a time they hate the Titans they want to beat the Titans and I don't know if the Titans can stop them I think it sets I actually think Baltimore can win this game by 10 plus and I think it sets up next week them being becoming playoff

manifesto the beware of the looked a little too good the previous round team. Because I'm still not sure they're good. They would have to go to Kansas City. Yeah, people are like, oh, Baltimore, Lamar's figured it out. And then KC beats them by 17. I don't know.

I honestly don't know. I feel like they're rolling right now. And the Ravens, it's a weird year. This could be where everyone crowned them last year and then they got just smacked around by the Titans. This could be the, where everyone crowned them last year. And then they got, you know, just smacked around by the Titans. This could be the year where a year later it was actually, this is what they needed. They should have won seven weeks ago. Their defense is healthier and better than it was seven weeks ago. And Lamar is playing better than they did seven weeks ago. Here's the other thing we didn't mention. I just want to mention

this quick. I think JK Dobbins is really good. I don't think that's a controversial opinion. They were very careful with how they used him. He only had 134 carries this year for 805 yards. His last six games where he was, this were his carries per game, 15, 11, 13, 14, 11, 13. He still averaged he for yards, 70, 71, 53, 64, 77, 160 last week, every game he's like between five and eight yards per carry. And it passes the eye test too. He's kind of unstoppable. And I wonder, like, I do think teams think about this with rookie running backs. They want them to peak now the right time. And could you see like a 25 carry game from him? Cause I think it's conceivable. Yeah. And Mark Ingram, who we love and is a great personality and is a good leader in the locker room was a healthy scratch. A few of these games, like I,

this is now the passing of the torch. It's Dobbins. Gus Edwards can run the ball and their offensive line is a bunch of angry guys. They move the line. I'm with you. I don't know if they can win, if it's going to be Lamar having to go blow for blow, 35-35, Lamar, here we go. I don't know. I honestly don't. He did it against Cleveland,

and that was really the only opportunity he had to shut some of his critics up. I don't know if it gets to that. I honestly think Baltimore takes care of business. No crowd is helpful, too. And the fact that it's cold, I think is... I also think being takes care of business. No crowd is helpful too. And the fact that it's cold, I'd think is... I also think being on the road might help them. I mean, there was so much pressure last year. I know these Baltimore folks, they were already booking tickets to the Super Bowl. This was the team. It was Lamar. It was this great ride. And it was such a letdown

that Saturday night. I feel like they're the hunters now. They're not the hunted. And the fact that they're on the road, it could actually be good for them. All right. Going to take one more break. Two more games. Prime Big Deal Days is coming October 8th and 9th with exclusive savings just for Prime members. Involuntary deal squeals can happen,

like the deal on new running shoes squeal. The deal on a new blender squeal, or the infamous deal on a new massager squeal. Save big on electronics, fashion, and more this Prime Big Deal Days, October 8th and 9th. Last two. Weirdest one of the day. Saints are up to nine and a half against the Bears. The Saints finished the year first in DVOA. Chicago is 15th, 25th offensively,

which seems, I would guess 38th, even though there's only 32 teams. The Saints have seven double-digit wins this year. So if somebody's favored by a line that high, I would like to see that double digit win number be a tiny bit higher than seven, but whatever. I do think they bumped this line three,

three, three and a half points because of Mitch, the line should be six, six and a half. Vegas was like, cool. How about nine and a half? Go ahead.

Bet on Mitch. We dare you. Dare you. Also no Roquan Smith for Chicago, it looks like. Huge. Huge. Because he's the one who chases Kamara. And the NFL didn't do them any favors with this, but it kind of worked out in their favor. I reported last week that with Fitzpatrick and with Kamara and Cup, the NFL told me and sources high up there were like, we're not scheduling games based on COVID-19.

So the Saints could very well play on Saturday and Kamara can't play because of the COVID-19 stuff. They're playing Sunday. So he hits the 10-day mark and he'll be fine as long as he passes all these tests. Here's the deal with my fear with Chicago. And Nagy is a good man and a good coach. They were all in last week with the pep

talks all week and the motivation of like, Aaron Rodgers does not come into our building, does not beat us. We need to win and get in. We're not relying on the Rams. We're taking care of business. We're empty in the bag. And they lost what, 35 to like 14 or something. So you did that. Now, can you get back up this week and be like, all right, but this is the playoffs and this one even matters more than that one. It's very hard for me to see how in six days they're suddenly going to totally change and then go back to that well

and get these guys ready to go beat the Saints. Yeah, I mean, Green Bay killed them twice. So maybe the motivation is like, look, we can't beat Green Bay, but every other team in this league we can beat. We've got these guys. The best thing to have for motivation is these two teams played in week eight.

26-23, New Orleans won an OT. They didn't have Thomas. They didn't have Emmanuel Sanders. Foles was quarterback. They fumbled three times, got all three fumbles back. And it was just like a relatively close game. I remember watching it because I think I had the Bears' money line. And I felt like the teams were like, not even, but it wasn't like a mismatch.

So now it's not enough points. I watched it back recently. It was on. Foles had a drive at the end of the fourth quarter and like got them into field goal range and they hit it and they go to overtime and then the Saints win. That's what it is. The Saints, it's like, is it Super Bowl or bust? And every year we say it, like, I really think this is, this is it. And to go back in time,

I don't know if the Saints thought Drew Brees was coming back. I think there was actually some thoughts that maybe Tom Brady would be their quarterback this year, this past offseason. Pro Bowl comes around and Brees is like, I'm coming back. And I guess the Saints are like, all right, I guess you're coming back.

And they were like, let's just go all in on this season. And they have the 32nd most salary cap space going into the offseason. They lose Trey Hendrickson, who had 13 and a half sacks as a free agent. go all in on this season and they have the 32nd most salary cap space going into the off season. They lose Trey Hendrickson who had 13 and a half sacks as a free agent. Jared Cook's a free agent. Anzalone's a free agent.

PJ, like it's one of those deals where I feel like they're not just all in, but like they're all in on this season and this post season. And gosh, to lose again at the Superdome third time in a row to end a season in a playoff game to the Bears and Trubisky, it would be an epic, epic loss. Kevin Patra at NFL.com

has this little tidbit about the Bears. Let me hear. Nagy has called play action for Trubisky at a 35.2% rate, highest in the NFL per NextGenStats. The Saints have allowed 11 TDs on play-action passes this season, tied for sixth most in the NFL. They allow a 100.6 passer rating with it

compared to 77.8 without play-action. So he's making the case, the Bears play-action the shit out of this game. Maybe they can get some momentum. The counter to that would be, it's Mitch Trubisky. Look, there was a lot of momentum going from Trubisky

up until last week, and then it kind of went kerplunk. And he, again, they're not dealing with contract until after the season. I would look at Mitch Trubisky like I did last week and say, this is your career, buddy. What is it going to be? No fans in the stands.

So much pressure on the Saints to get it done this year. Literally, this is the true, true house money team. No one's picking the Bears this week. That's what they've got going for them. Nagy could say, hey, Mitch, just relax. Go have fun and see what we can do. I just don't know if I see it.

If they had Smith in this game, would you feel better about it? Yeah, because he could at least try. I mean, you saw Trevathan trying to cover Marquez Valdez's scantling last week, and Rodgers just waited one extra second and had him. I don't know how you chase Kamara around without Roquan Smith. It's funny. This seems like such an easy pick.

Just be like, stop overthinking this. Just take the Saints. They're home. It's Trubisky. And something about it scares me, and I can't explain it, but I guess we'll have to go back to it. I obviously am not taking Trubisky. I just don't feel good about the Saints at all. It's hard. At last year, Kirk Cousins was Trubisky, right? Comes in there and beats them in a playoff game. And you're like, but I think that Vikings team was significantly

better than this Bears team. I guess my question is, let's talk this out for a second. It's because I would think it would be the garbage time cover. That's what's frustrating about this is the Bears winning, the Bears losing 33 to 26 and they cover 33 to 24, some stupid thing. What is the garbage time potential of the bears? They're down, they're down 15, right? They, they have to go 80 yards. And it's that number 11 Mooney who makes like one great play every game. I don't know if he's going to be even available to play at an amazing catch against the Packers. Um, I'm not sure his status right now, but they don't have like, is it the Cordero Patterson out of the'm not sure his status right now, but they don't have... Is it the Cordero Patterson out of the backfield for the

900th time? I just don't know. Sad Allen Robinson packing his bags. Right. He's like, I'm out. I'm afraid. I just don't see it. And then the other thing that would worry me taking the Saints is just the, oh my God, Drew Brees looks so old game. It's possible. He's indoors though. It's like

friendly confines. I, I would fear picking him on the road in Lambeau or even in Seattle. But you know, then if they win the next two games are in new Orleans and I don't fear him at home in new Orleans. This is one of those where you're nervous about it. Then you take them and then the saints go up seven. Nothing.

You're like, Oh, this is awesome. I'm only two and a half points away. Last one is Cleveland, Pittsburgh. Cleveland is getting five and a half points in Pittsburgh. Pitt finished the year eight, the DVO at Cleveland was 18th, 25th, uh, defensively. It's going to be 40 degrees. Yeah. There's some amazing Pittsburgh stats. Now that we have this season over, they were 32nd in rushing yards. They ran as a team for 1,351 rushing yards.

3.6 yards per carry. 32nd. 32nd, yep. 322 first downs total. That's 26th. They had 81 rushing first downs. That was 31st. Against playoff teams since week seven.

They beat Tennessee by three, beat Baltimore by four, beat Baltimore by five, lost to Washington by six, lost to Buffalo by 11, beat Indy by four, lost to Cleveland by two last week, although that was a weird game.

I'm not confident that they are seven points better than any AFC playoff team. And as nervous as I am about taking Cleveland plus five and a half when I don't know who's coaching them and I have to back Baker Mayfield and this seems like a pretty bad matchup for them and Pittsburgh owns Cleveland. There's a million reasons not to take them.

The five and a half is pretty enticing because I do feel like this is a three-point game. All right, let's unpack it a little bit from the other side of it. The Browns likely will not be practicing at all in person. It's all going to be on Zoom this whole week. All right. Their head coach, Kevin Stefanski, can talk to them on Zoom. Is not allowed to have any contact with them on Sunday game day.

Can't have any contact as far as pep talk or halftime. Can't be involved with any communication. Their best offensive lineman, Joel Batonio, not playing. Kaderil Hodge, who's an important part of their offense, not playing. And their head coach is going to be Mike Prefer, who's a special teams coach, whatever. He's great. He's fine.

Special teams coach. I'm not sure he's going to be able to make halftime adjustments. And Stefanski calls the plays and is the guy in Baker's ear, and he's not available to do that either. That's going to be Alex Van Pelt. I just feel like it's just too much. You're asking too much from a team that has no playoff experience, and it's been a great ride.

I don't see how they muster up the ability to keep this close against Ben and Tomlin. As bad as the rushing game is, as bad as they've looked, it's just such an uphill climb, and that's no shame to them. It's just shitty timing with this whole thing. I don't know how this works, where Baker says, I don't need my play caller. I don't need my head coach at halftime.

We're going to roll with Alex Van Pelt and we're going to be just fine. So, Stefanski had created such a great blueprint for Baker game to game. Really eliminating all the stuff that he's bad at.

I guess the counter could be if you're just going to try to run the ball in the Steelers and slow the game down, control the clock. And then on defense, um, Hey, just, just go hit Ben Roethlisberger. Just hit him. Just, just try to make a play guys. Like how complicated does this game plan have to be? I don't think Pittsburgh's that complicated to play. They can't run the ball. go hit Ben Roethlisberger. Just hit him. Just try to make a play, guys. How complicated does this game plan have to be? I don't think Pittsburgh's that complicated to play. They can't run the ball.

They can't run the ball, and Cincinnati two weeks ago beat the snot out of them, right? So you're like, wait. I mean, coach is great, but we still have our players, and we can still do it. Tomlin, Roethlisberger, I'm going to say Cam Hayward is up in that conversation. It's just like veteran guy.

TJ Watt, I just, I don't see this one being one where they're biting their nails late. I can't. I just, it's coaching matters in this league. And with him not there, and I even explored it with the league. I was like, is there a way, you know, outdoor dining in New York, you can sit in a bubble,

you know, and you can maybe communicate. They're like, no, it's not fair. That's just, we've had our rules, we're not changing our rules there will be no Stefanski communication. But can he prepare the whole week though? Yes absolutely. So you're getting 90% of it though. You get the

first 15 plays for sure and then what happens in the second half when you need to make adjustments and Baker is looking for his guy, I mean again Van Pelt might be able to step up and this is real nitty gritty like what happens in a locker room, but Stefanski's the one in his ear all the time. Stefanski's the play caller. He's not just the head coach.

I feel like it's such a big deal. And to not have him out there as a blanket of security, and especially in Baker's first playoff game in Pittsburgh at night, I just don't see it. So are you telling me you honestly believe Stefanski's not going to be texting the offensive coordinator in this game? You really believe that?

I'm a purist. I am employed by the shield. I don't think there will be any violations. How would they even know? You know, there was that thing with Mora a couple years ago where he was on a cell phone and they found out. I don't think these guys are checking their cell phones during the game and I honestly don't think the league would

stand for it. It's a great call. I honestly was questioning them. There's got to be some flexibility, some leeway. The Browns haven't been to the playoffs in 17 years. It's COVID. They're trying their hardest here. They didn't do anything wrong, but the league is not going to bend on it.

Whether they get caught, I don't know, man. Is there someone monitoring the pocket of Alex Van Pelle? I don't know. It does increase the nobody believes in us factor with the Browns. It's massive. No Olivier Vernon either, by the way, who is their defensive leader. So, yeah, there's literally nobody that believes in them. And I don't even think Browns fans.

My fear is that the Browns are like, all right, it's been a nice ride. It's been good. Let's look towards next year. How about the fact that the Steelers trailed in the last five games in real ways? Even the game they won, they were down 24-7. I know. I know. They're not great.

They're not great. I just think it's the other way. I think it's too big a mountain for the other team. Okay. All right. We're going to take one more break. We're going to come back with break and we're going to come back with the million dollar picks

for round one. Hey, football fans, I got the perfect way to make the playoffs even more exciting this week and it's called a same game parlay bet. They're only available

on FanDuel Sportsbook. They let you combine multiple bets from a single game for an even bigger win during wildcard round. You can combine the money line,

the over-under, player props, all-in-one parlay. Best of all, FanDuel is letting you place a same game parlay bet, risk-free. All FanDuel customers, you can get up to $10 back on your bet if you don't win. It's one of many ways to win on FanDuel. Easy to register, easy to deposit, easy to find your bet, fast withdrawals when you win, a range of betting options, player props, futures, find whatever bet you're looking for. FanDuel has all of them. They even have the highest scoring team and lowest scoring team of the weekend,

which is one of my favorite bets. But it's easy to place your bet fast during a game if you see a trend you like, especially if you think like you watched Washington in the Bucs for five minutes and realized that Washington's

not going to score. If you haven't already, download the FanDuel Sportsbook app. Sign up to get started. Use my promo code BS at signup. Promo code BS at signup. If you're a current customer, you're all set. Go check out Same Game Parlay.

It's only available on FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm going to give you one of their million-dollar picks. Must be 21-plus, present in Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa, Tennessee. Refund issued as non-returnable site credit that expires in seven days. Max refund $10. Terms apply. See sportsbook.fandle.com for details.

Gambling problem? Call 800-522-4700 in Colorado. 800 bets off in Iowa. 809 within Indiana. 800-GAMBER in Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois. 800-889-9789 in Tennessee. 1800-GAMBER.net in West Virginia. All right, before we do million-dollar picks,

Fando has highest scoring team and lowest scoring team. Ooh, I like it. Of round one, which I think is really fun. So highest scoring team, you got Baltimore plus 470 as the favorite. Buffalo is 5-1. Saints 5-1. Tampa 7-1. Tennessee 9-1. Pittsburgh plus 850. And then it starts getting goofy.

Baltimore plus 470. If you're thinking shootout, there's a reason they're the favorite. But I kind of like Buffalo at 5-1 because I don't see how Indy stops them. No Beasley could're the favorite, but I kind of like Buffalo at five to one because I don't see how Indy stops them. No Beasley could be a problem, but Buffalo just seems like a guaranteed 35 points

against any decent or less defense. I think, what was it, Warren Sharp on your podcast said they have the most first downs ever in history. They don't punt, they don't stuff. Like, if you believe in Buffalo, you got to keep your foot on the pedal. I agree. And I don't know what the Raven don't know what the, what the Ravens, if they have to get in a shootout, if they want to score a lot of points, or if they just want to

milk the clock with Lamar and Dobbins, I think that Buffalo is the better pick there. Well, and also the Ravens could have those scenarios where they thought they were going to score a touchdown. They had to settle for a field goal, that kind of stuff. Lowest scoring team. Washington is plus 480. The Bears are 5-1. Browns are plus 650. Rams plus 650. Indies plus 850. Seattle's plus 950.

After that, I don't think any of them would happen. Washington plus 480. I was kind of shocked by those odds. Not big enough? I don't see how they get to 13 points. Yeah. It's going to be tough to muster our points and if it's alex smith he can't move well very well and if it's heineke it's tyler haneke um i look at i look at that uh that seattle team though i i don't know it seems like value wise there's a chance they don't explode for many points and at the value number

i'm gonna you know regret so seattle's value number, I'm going to regret saying this. So Seattle's 10-1? Yeah, I'm going to regret saying it when Russell Wilson throws five touchdown passes. But just value alone, if I'm saying that I think the Rams' defense locks up Metcalf, there's certainly a value to that. That's plus 950, my bet. Well, Alex Smith and Heineke.

It seems like a once-in-a-lifetime situation. This is a dream, huh? Okay. The million- dollar pick. So we're going to do, we're going to do a couple of bigger bets. Okay. And then we're going to pick every team

in the eternal quest to finish undefeated for the playoffs. Let's go. Never have for me. I've come close. I think the fact that they added two round one games is going to make it almost impossible. First one, million dollar picks.

By the way, we are down $932,000. Won $480,000 last week. I will be in the positive by the end of these playoffs. First one we're going to do, we're going to do a tease. And it's a little, you know, it's a little easy on paper.

It worries me that people like Joe House will be doing this tease, but I'm still doing it. We're going to put 550,000 to win 500. Okay. On the Buffalo Bills, tease down from six and a half to a half point against Indianapolis with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tease from eight and a half down to two and a half. Both teams have to cover those spreads. Buffalo just has to win by a point.

Tampa has to win by a field goal, 550 to win 500. What do you think of that? I love it. Let's go. I love it. Next one, we're going to parlay Baltimore. I'm not going to do it at minus three though. I'm going to nudge the line

down to minus two and a half. Love it. Which is minus 130. Okay. Parlay that with New Orleans, the money line, just to win the game, which right now is

minus 500 for New Orleans. Okay. We're going to parlay those together. Baltimore has to win by three points or more. New Orleans just has to win the game. That is plus 103. Do you want to get greedy? I feel like New Orleans doesn't just have to win the game. That is plus 103. Do you want to get greedy?

I feel like New Orleans doesn't just have to win the game. I feel like New Orleans could win by a few points. All right. Stop trying to tempt me. I'm trying to get, I'm trying to take it. All we have to do is New Orleans just has to beat Trubisky. Okay.

Just to win. I'm trying to catch up here. I'm going to put a 300 on that at plus 103. Okay. I like it. I'm going to put a 300 on that at plus one Oh three. Okay. I like it. Then we're going to put 50 K on Buffalo to be the highest scoring team. Five to one Washington would be the lowest scoring team at plus four 80.

And then we have to bet a hundred K on each game. So here it is. Buffalo minus six and a half Rams Plus three and a half Let's go Bucks minus eight and a half Baltimore minus three Saints minus nine and a half Sadly, gotta do it

And then we're gonna disagree on the last one And we can text each other Cleveland plus five and a half I'm not scared by COVID Stefanski and Olivier Vernon and Baker. I think they can run the ball and I think Pittsburgh plays down to their competition. Whoever they're competing against,

it's three points in the fourth quarter. I'm not sold on Pittsburgh at all. And even if they're up double figures, they can't run the ball to protect the lead. Do your thing. You go for it. I love it. Mike Prefer, head coach. He's going to

hang in there. Less than five and a half. And last one is we can't do Rams money with the under, right? For a tiny parlay? Let's do a little one. Like a sprinkling? Like a touch. Like a sprinkling? Alright. We'll put

33K on the Rams money line with the under 42 and a half at plus three 31. If it goes down just to respect ourselves, I'm going to get you a Wolford Jersey. We'll wear it next week and you'll be rocking that Wolford nine everywhere. So the one that worries you is the, is the brands. The Browns one is concerning.

And then I don't know if I'm just drinking the Kool-Aid On John Wolford and the Rams And I don't want to lead you down a bad path That one, who knows, Russell Wilson is a pretty good quarterback Well, we don't have a ton on that one Alright, Peter Schrager, look forward to seeing you Are you covering any of these games or no? No, I will be watching them and enjoying And then commenting on them all Monday morning

NFL Network Alright, great, great to see you as always I hope we do well in the Million Dollar Picks Thanks for the help I'll be texting you, thanks Bill Bill. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Mike Green. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Enjoy the football games. Please stay safe and we'll see you on Sunday night. On the way.