The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Somehow Alive Packers, Zombie Bucs, Won’t-Die Pats, and More Improbable Week 18 Playoff Scenarios With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: January 2, 2023

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to discuss the Steelers’ comeback win over the Ravens, Dolphins-Patriots, the Packers earning some respect by beating the Vikings by 24 points, Ea...gles-Saints, the Buccaneers pulling off another come-from-behind win to save their season, Raiders-49ers, and more (1:53). Then they guess the lines for NFL Week 18 and run through all the wacky scenarios that could occur after the season finale (44:18). Finally, they hit on some other non-NFL topics before closing the show with Parent Corner (1:12:49). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:26 It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to
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Starting point is 00:02:47 with a Sly Stallone movie on Monday night. You could probably guess what it is. Not too hard to go through his IMDb and figure it out. One word movie month starting Monday night with Sly Stallone.
Starting point is 00:03:02 So there you go. This is the first podcast of 2023. We're going to be cranking out content all week on The Ringer. This is our time. It's movie Oscars time. It's football playoffs time. It's basketball starting to heat up,
Starting point is 00:03:17 getting closer to the all-star break time. NBA draft. You can listen to The Ringer's NBA draft show with KFC and Kyle Mann. A lot of stuff going on. A lot of stuff. And unfortunately for me
Starting point is 00:03:30 and fortunately the Patriots are somehow alive. And now I have to talk myself into the Patriots potentially going into round one and beating Buffalo. I'm going to do it.
Starting point is 00:03:38 By Thursday I'm going to talk myself into the season. We'll walk through it right now with our pal Cousin Sal. It's all next. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we're taping this.
Starting point is 00:04:08 It is 835 Pacific Time. Just watched these Steelers beat the Ravens on Sunday night, which added to all the playoff scenarios we have for Week 18. Sal, they did something really mean to us this year. They have not announced the schedule yet for week 18. What the hell? I don't fully understand it. They gave us two games Saturday.
Starting point is 00:04:28 We know Chiefs Raiders is Saturday and the nightcap is that Tennessee Jags game, which I predicted would be Sunday night, but the league is so embarrassed by the prospect of Tennessee making the playoffs that they moved it to a different day, but still prime time-ish. But why don't they,
Starting point is 00:04:41 what do they need to know? They know everything they need to know now. Nothing's really, I guess they want to wait to see if Buffalo has to play for the one. That game might mean nothing, right? Because I guess their ideal scenario would be if Bengals-Ravens was for the three seed, and then they could put that on Sunday night next week, right? But if the Bengals win tomorrow night, then they're done. That's done.
Starting point is 00:05:07 Yeah. Right. I don't know. I don't know what they're doing. The other one that's confusing is Packers-Lions, which seems like, oh, just put that one on. It's basically a loser leaves town, but it's not because Detroit needs a win plus a Seattle loss. So if Seattle wins, then Detroit basically has nothing to play for because Seattle's making it or Green Bay's making it.
Starting point is 00:05:27 I don't know what they do with that one. They could basically put Seattle and the Green Bay basically at the same time on Sunday in the afternoon, but I don't know how they figured this out. I feel like we're going to end up with that crappy Jags-Titans game. Well, no, that's Saturday night now. Oh, they definitely said that Saturday night? Yeah, they gave us a little taste. Two games Saturday. One's Kansas City Raiders and one's
Starting point is 00:05:51 Jaguars and Titans. So that's definite. That's definite Saturday night. Yeah, you're right. So I don't know what they're going to do now. The one thing about Green Bay-Detroit is you know Detroit will play their starters, right? You don't want to be in a situation where you're going to have one team just like slow it down and play their backup.
Starting point is 00:06:10 So that won't be the case for that, even though it might not mean anything for Detroit, but it's kind of messy. They might've gone two or three weeks too long this year. It does feel like the seasons shifted and turned 20 times. Let's talk about that Ravens-Steelers game quickly. I think you could make a case the Steelers are the fourth best shifted and turned 20 times. Let's talk about that Raven-Stewars game quickly. I think you could make a case the Steelers are the fourth best team in the AFC. Wow. They're 2-6,
Starting point is 00:06:32 but they're 6-2 in their last eight. But even the 6-2, I felt like they could have snuck out at least one of those. Their defense is good. They know who they are. They can run the ball. Najee Harris was fantastic tonight. And they look like they struck oil with Pickett. I would take Pickett right now.
Starting point is 00:06:48 He's solid. You know, I had a miserable time watching them last year with Big Ben. And if you look at it, they probably don't score that many more points. I knew the final score of this game would be 16-13, 16-14, or 17. That was somewhere in there. What was it? It was 16-13.
Starting point is 00:07:04 It fell in the four scores that were absolutely in any possibility that it could fall in. But yeah, man, he's good. He throws hard. He rolls left and throws. He's got pickings.
Starting point is 00:07:16 It looks like a stud. And I don't think, I don't know that they score a lot more than they did last year, but they're so much more enjoyable to watch them move the ball than Big Ben's terrible team. That said, so they'll be a seven seed.
Starting point is 00:07:28 Who are they going to go? They're going to go to the Chiefs and lose again. They're going to go to Cincinnati. Cincinnati, I guess, could be good and go to Buffalo and get walloped. I don't know. I don't like that seven seed for any of those teams. Your team, the Dolphins or the Steelers are the only possibilities, right? Well, the Chiefs, I think there is a recipe
Starting point is 00:07:46 to keeping a playoff game close against them, right? The Steelers are probably better equipped than the Patriots, but very similar blueprint. Good defense, run the ball, kill clock, keep Mahomes off the field. You know, I think Pittsburgh is just a better team than the Patriots
Starting point is 00:08:02 right now. The Patriots, I don't know how we ended up here, Sal, where the Patriots are 8-8. They're somehow alive. My dad's getting excited. He's like, who knows? Play Buffalo, could end up playing them in consecutive weeks. Two weeks in a row, yeah.
Starting point is 00:08:18 The defense is, since week three, is number one overall DVOA. And they've been really good. They have seven touchdowns. And over and over again, they've been able to not just keep the pats in the games, but actually have been more of a scoring weapon from time to time. But somehow I was prepared for this team to go seven and 10.
Starting point is 00:08:35 I was thinking about who would be like the ninth pick in the draft. And now I have to talk myself into just them being in round one and just becoming a good fan and just not looking at the glass half-empty stuff, like the worst offensive coordinator we've had since Dick Corey.
Starting point is 00:08:52 None of that stuff. Just the positives. How good the defense has been. That we can run the ball. That Mack throws a nice deep ball. I just got to get my head wrapped around it. Yeah. You got it.
Starting point is 00:09:01 You're wrapped, man. You're already wrapped. I heard it. I heard the whole unwrapping right there. And your defense is good. They somehow score a lot. Don't they have like nine touchdowns your defense? I think it was seven plus a couple special touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:09:14 I'm just going to add. Oh, okay. So that's what it is. Yeah. Not non-script. We have seven defensive touchdowns though. Yeah. Okay. And two runbacks. Well, the one today was crazy because it felt like Miami had that game. It was 14-7. Pats can do jack shit.
Starting point is 00:09:29 And all of a sudden, Bridgewater throws the pick six and gets hurt on the pick six. Right. And in 10 seconds, the game's completely different. Yeah. And then Skyler Thompson comes in. For a second, I was like,
Starting point is 00:09:40 oh, Skyler Thompson's not that bad. But that's a tough spot to throw him in a home game. It felt like the home crowds mattered today. Did you feel that way? I thought it mattered in the Niners game. That definitely mattered in the Packers game. It mattered in this game, the Pat Stauffens game.
Starting point is 00:09:56 Even the Ravens game, the crowd was great. I think the Steelers are a better team and the crowd kept the Ravens in it. Well, I thought so too. But then when, like the key is when you hear like Friar Muth catch a pass and how many Muths do you hear? And I don't know. It's kind of lively, I thought.
Starting point is 00:10:10 But yeah. Yeah, it did seem like there were a couple of Steelers fans. They do travel a lot. When you do that Muth thing though, I never know what does that mean for how many people are actually at the game? Because that's like the loudest sound you can hear, right? The boo.
Starting point is 00:10:22 Yeah, I guess so. It could be like a 100 people and it sounds... That's true. It sounds huge. And they could be booing. You never know what it is. You really don't. Well, let me get your honest opinion on the Pats
Starting point is 00:10:32 because I can't look at it objectively anymore. I don't think the Pats are good, but I know their defense is good. But offensively, I just know when they get to the playoffs that I just know what's going to happen. It's going to be all the same shit. I've been watching for four months. Am I too negative on this team?
Starting point is 00:10:49 You might be a little bit, but what do you mean good? Like they're as good as any seven seed should be, right? If you end up nine and eight, that's probably about right. Before we did the season, right? We did our totals. By the way, you're killing it. I don't want to give you any credit at all, but you are kind of killing it. I think both of us did well when we did that over or under before the year.
Starting point is 00:11:06 I think both of us have a chance to get to over 20 wins. I have a chance to go like 22 and 10. Yeah, and I'm like 11 and 7 or something. This guy, Chris Haynes, shout out to him. He keeps track of all this. We're better than that. God forbid Kyle keep track of something like this. No, he would never do that.
Starting point is 00:11:22 No, I thought I was like 18 and 6 and you were like 16 and 9. Is that where you are? With some stuff decided today. Yeah, no, we're doing really well. Yeah, but anyway, so we had to decide between the Dolphins or Patriots. Didn't have to decide. They could have both gone over. Weren't they both 8 and a half?
Starting point is 00:11:38 I think we argued on the pod. It's like, all right, you got to, it's one or the other. You can't have both. Yeah, I took the pats. I went under on the the pats I went over in the dolphins and you did the opposite yeah and we're right there we're right there with each other so that's the thing I think that's where you are I think you're a seven seed you're
Starting point is 00:11:53 a nine and a team you're decent offense not explosive at all and as good a defense as most teams except for like maybe two or three yeah that I guess the real question is, does the seven seed even matter in the AFC? You could argue maybe if Baltimore is the six seed,
Starting point is 00:12:10 that might not matter as much either. It feels like four teams plus Pittsburgh, I think will at least be a bitch to play. But then you go in the NFC, and if Green Bay gets the seven seed, that is just a different animal than Seattle. I've been poo-pooing and dismissing Green Bay for weeks.
Starting point is 00:12:27 And look, they caught some stuff happening that Minnesota, they get that special teams play. It looks like it's going to be a touchdown. Guy gets tackled at the one. Minnesota's the ball first and goal from the one. They run a terrible play. Then they run another terrible play and their center gets hurt.
Starting point is 00:12:46 And when their center gets hurt, it felt like the whole game changed. They end up getting a field goal instead of a touchdown. Kickoff return. All of a sudden, they're down 7-3. And you just knew right away. I was like, how do I lie bet to get out of this? You couldn't even do it. But it does feel like the Packers, they at least have
Starting point is 00:13:02 a little swagger back now. And defensively, Jair Alexander was unbelievable today, but defensively, they at least have a little swagger back now. And defensively, Jair Alexander was unbelievable today, but defensively, they had a little bit of a pass rush. Now, I don't know what to say. I'm proud of you. You said it right. You're one of the few people in sports media who could say, oh, that was a come on.
Starting point is 00:13:17 Will you come over my house and teach me how to say pass rush? Well, and then the Giants is the sixth seed. I don't know. Not an easy team to, crush. Well, and then the Giants is the sixth seed. I don't know. Not an easy team to play either. So I feel like all the five, six, seven seeds in the NFC are dangerous. And then you get to the AFC. Well, we thought the Chargers were going to be.
Starting point is 00:13:35 Yeah. A couple of weeks ago, we thought Chargers could sneak in as the seven. And if you're the Chiefs or the Bills, whoever's the two, you don't want to play them. Now it's not as imperative to get the, obviously the one's great and you get a bye, but the two is going to go against New England, Miami or Pittsburgh. Not as
Starting point is 00:13:51 terrifying, I think, as the charges. But yeah, Packers have come on and I don't know what it is with that Vikings team. I don't know if we'll ever see anything like it. They're a 12 and 14 with a minus 19 point differential. I couldn't believe that. Yeah. They're the embarrassment. Like the bears have three wins, but the Vikings to me are the
Starting point is 00:14:10 embarrassment of that division. So weird. For these seasons are so long now. Like I made a list of who seems healthy, healthy or healthy ish, a little depleted or just plain unhealthy. And I had five teams in the unhealthy group. Philly, Minnesota, Miami, Baltimore, and Tennessee. Where all five of those feel like they've had so many injuries
Starting point is 00:14:34 that it's starting to actually crater their season. Philly's the surprising one. But Philly is just, you know, they lost Josh Sweat today. I don't know when he comes back. I had him too.
Starting point is 00:14:44 I know where you're going with it. I mean, I had him on a bunch of Moneyline parlays. I thought that was so easy. I only did one tease and I swore all week I wasn't going to do a tease with them. And I woke up this morning hungover and I was like, I don't have enough action. I'll do a Falcons-Eagles tease. Let me get that. The Eagles won't lose.
Starting point is 00:15:00 Minshew. Minshew mania. The Minshew maniacs. I don't know. We're going to have a meeting tomorrow to decide if we're going to continue the Minshew society.hew mania the Minshew maniacs I don't know, we're going to have a meeting tomorrow to decide if we're going to continue the Minshew society oh really? he was so bad today
Starting point is 00:15:10 he was awful he was not good, I don't know why you don't expect that team to not score and we'll go over because now they have a game against the Giants and basically the Giants back up right? I mean they're not going to it's going to be Ty Taylor in there, right? So we'll figure that line out.
Starting point is 00:15:28 And this is just a bummer that that keeps it going. I know the Eagles are going to win next week. I know they're going to get the one seed, but boy, did they look bad today. Well, it seems, I asked our Philly special guys, Shio Kapati and Solak, like, what's going on? Like, it was pretty clear early in that game it was going in a bad direction. I was like, what's going on? Are they going to clear early in that game. It was going in a bad direction.
Starting point is 00:15:45 I was like, what's going on? Are they going to fucking blow this? And they basically said when they don't have a pass rush, the whole team falls apart, which is you could feel in that game. How did they say, did they say it right?
Starting point is 00:15:54 Or did they say like, they said pass rush. Yeah. Wow. They got it right. They nailed it. Um, but yeah,
Starting point is 00:15:59 it feels like we've had a couple teams peak a little too early and they might be one of them. Now, if you're looking at the NFC, I mean, anybody would say San Francisco seems like the safest bet. Meanwhile, they have a guy who had never started before five weeks ago. But San Francisco seems like the safest bet now. To me, and I think you're right. I think we're both right.
Starting point is 00:16:19 The season went a little too long. But it's also why now people are screaming, Philly fans especially. You see why Jalen Hurts is the MVP? And it's like, no, I think because the season is so long and because Mahomes is making it look so easy and coasting through these games that he has no interest in covering,
Starting point is 00:16:35 I kind of think Mahomes should get it. I think like in a 17-week league, you can't sit two and three games anymore. So that's why I would give it to Mahomes. Well, if Hurts wins again and he finishes 14-1 for the season, basically, and they lose the two that he didn't play, I feel like his case is better than it was a week ago.
Starting point is 00:16:57 But I think you're right. I think Mahomes is going to win. They don't have odds up yet. No, they don't have the odds up. The Super Bowl odds, at least on FanDuel, everything's cluttered now. We have Buffalo's basically 4-1. KC's plus 450. Philly's 550 now, so they dropped to third. San Francisco's 550, so same odds for both. Cincy 8-1. Your team's 10-1. And then it drops off a cliff to Tampa 22-1. By the way, anyone who wants to bet Tampa to win the Super Bowl,
Starting point is 00:17:26 I'll book the action myself. You'll take it? Yeah, just bet it through me and Sal. Tom doesn't have three. He doesn't have three wins in him? No. Chargers 24-1, and then Vikings 27-1, and then the Packers all the way down there at 31-1.
Starting point is 00:17:40 Yeah, I was looking at that. The best odds are the Chargers. Because those odds haven't moved since last week. But, I mean, you could argue they're going to be favored in round one. Right? They'd have to win four games in a row. But 24-1 for the four games, I think the odds are better on the 24-1 than the four-team parlay of the Chargers winning four times, right?
Starting point is 00:17:59 Yes, I think so. That's the only one where there's a little bit of value left. And then Green Bay, if you want to get excited about that one. Yeah, Green Bay is the only one that's going to change after next week. It's either going to be off the board because they don't make the playoffs or you're going to get substantially less than 31-1. That's basically a five-game parlay because you're betting them to win week 18 and then four games in a row.
Starting point is 00:18:19 I don't know. I'm not ready to get that excited about the Packers, but they certainly do look a little friskier than they did. They looked like they were dead. What was that, four weeks ago? People were talking about whether Jordan Love was going to come in. Oh, my Cowboys were killing them. That would have been it. That would have just been it. Did you end up hedging your Panthers bet? You put it out there. No, I looked at halftime. Could have just hedged with Tampa.
Starting point is 00:18:45 But you made the key point because we were debating it. Even if the Panthers won, it didn't necessarily mean that they're going to win the division because they still have to beat the Saints next week. Right. Let's talk about that stupid game.
Starting point is 00:19:00 The fucking zombie Bucs, they're down 14-0. They're down 21-10 in the fourth quarter. Carolina scores. It's 21-10. Tampa just rips off the three-play 75-yard drive. Mike Evans on your championship-winning fantasy team, who's been dead for three months and just went nuts today.
Starting point is 00:19:21 But Carolina had that game 90 different ways. I mean, they had a fumble where Darnold, he wasn't looking, and the snap hit him in the chest, where I swear that's like the seventh time that's happened to him. And they just basically, Tampa didn't screw up, and I am not any more sold on Tampa than I was a week ago. Are you? Here's one thing that concerned me as a team fan.
Starting point is 00:19:46 As a doubt. I might play them. Almost definitely going to play them. Yeah. The quarterback sneak for the score. Evan stuff. Sure. Terrific.
Starting point is 00:19:54 I mean, he should be scoring all year, but that quarterback sneak and think about it. It's really underrated. I know it was all the Patriots offensive line, but Brady's quarterback sneak in New England was the greatest short yardage play in the history of football. Not to get three yards, but to get close to two or one and a half. And now if that's back, at least if he has the confidence to run that, that's just a little weird tweak of a thing that makes me think that offense could be back.
Starting point is 00:20:21 I mean, they scored 30. And really, like you said, they looked dead to rights. But that stupid play got me nervous. Well, counter. We knew the Panthers were going to be in trouble because they didn't have J.C. Horn. And the cornerback they did have, who was experienced, Henderson,
Starting point is 00:20:36 just sucked today. And it just felt like, it wasn't just that Brady played well. These guys were open all over the field. Like, the Panthers couldn't. What did it take? Bowles and Leftwich took them almost three quarters to say, we should just chuck it.
Starting point is 00:20:54 What are we doing? Let's just throw it. They were trying to do that weird short year. You're like New Year's Lenny. New Year's Lenny wasn't doing it for you. But the thing, thinking about the matchup against your team in the playoffs, I could totally see you guys
Starting point is 00:21:08 going up like 14-3 or 21-6. And then it's like, oh, you got it. And then all of a sudden here comes Tampa. He's done this now, what,
Starting point is 00:21:17 eight times this season where they've been down and they've kind of just come crawling back and he's made some throws. So, it's weird. I don't think they can win the Super Bowl,
Starting point is 00:21:26 but I also wouldn't want to see them for one playoff game just because we've watched them do this again and again and again. Damn it. I know it. We're going to be like a touchdown favorite or five and a half or something like that. It's going to sting even worse than anything. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:21:39 Did you allow yourself to seriously think about you guys winning the NFC East? What if the Giants try in that game? Dayball's a badass. What if he's like, fuck it. Let's try to win the game. I did have some Giant fan friends saying that, and we're not going to go over the line for another
Starting point is 00:21:57 few minutes, but it does seem by the line that they're not going to try. They're not going to. And if the Eagles defense can't shut down that second string Giants offense, then they definitely don't deserve it. But yeah, they'll play at the same time. The Cowboys will play Washington, who's out of it. So that helps.
Starting point is 00:22:14 But I don't know. I think you see a lot of backups by the second half of those games. Yeah, I made my guess for that game, assuming the Giants wouldn't care. But I bet they do a rope-a-dope and try to pretend that they might care when they actually don't. Let's take a break, and then I want to go through some quick Week 17 stuff,
Starting point is 00:22:32 and then we'll do guest lines. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me. I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey, and it's on prime all season long. Watch prime Monday night hockey deliver unreal plays. The biggest goals can't miss moments. Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL is best.
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Starting point is 00:23:45 was Purdy versus Stidham. Where just year after year, it seems like these two kids, they just seem to go head to head like this and go nuts. So I wasn't totally surprised, but we had Stidham
Starting point is 00:24:01 on the Patriots. I thought there was a 0% chance he'd ever have a good football game as a starter. He was awesome. Like, he was awesome. I thought he was fantastic. He was awesome if you weren't going against
Starting point is 00:24:15 the best defense in football. Right. And he was. Like, 365 yards. No one does that. Three touchdowns. Well, the thing with him, he actually stood in the pocket he took
Starting point is 00:24:25 hits and i think i thought car was afraid to get hit i i think that was one of the many reasons why the raiders were like you know what let's move on it just i i thought i want to say he played scared but it just he was playing like a finesse quarterback stidham was like i'm gonna take hits i'm gonna scramble i'm gonna try stuff. I'm going to play like my entire life depends on this game. And it worked. And they hung around, they hung around. And I thought that was a really nice little test for San Francisco and for Purdy, right?
Starting point is 00:24:56 I thought the Raiders are that great, but they're decent. And they kept hitting them back with haymakers and the Niners had to kind of kept creating offense. And I thought that was a good win for them. Crowd was into it. And if you're the Raiders, you're totally vindicated by that weird Derek Carr decision. I had the same stuff written down. The 49ers needed a game like this, just like the Cowboys junk win against the Texans, but they went 98 yards, right? And won that game and same kind of thing against the Eagles. Okay. It's Gardner Minshew, but they came back. Brock
Starting point is 00:25:23 Purdy didn't have that. He didn't have a game. We would have gone in there. Our analysis in the playoffs would have been like, have we seen Brock Purdy down 10? What does he do? Well, now we have, right? And the offense, the way it's run, helps a lot, right? And the defense, too.
Starting point is 00:25:38 They were back against the wall, too. They had a cruddy game and still came up with a good stop at the end to win. Bosa created the interception. Just ridiculous. He shoved him. What'd they call it? Shopping cart? I forgot what they called when you shoved the guy right into your roller skate. Purdy threw the interception
Starting point is 00:25:58 but 284 and won a game that he was down double digits. It's huge. It's a good one. We have... I mean, Derek Carr, this is the worst day of his professional career, right? He wasn't even on the field, and this was the worst. It's pretty bad. It's pretty tough
Starting point is 00:26:13 for his free agency. You know, and whatever team ends up signing him, and somebody will talk themselves into him, and I don't know. If I'm a fan, I'm like, well, wait. What happened in Vegas? They sucked when he was the quarterback and then somebody
Starting point is 00:26:30 the Pats traded with the seventh round pick for a sixth round pick. That should be his thing. What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, guys. You want me? Who wants me now? Let's go. I thought Vegas... I think there's like five teams that easily could have been like a six or
Starting point is 00:26:47 seven seed if like five plays have gone differently this season and Vegas is one of them Atlanta is another one I think there's a world where Atlanta easily is like nine and eight right or nine and seven right now Carolina was another one Pittsburgh could have two more wins
Starting point is 00:27:02 you know the Pats could have three more wins or losses either way depending on how you look at it but there's a bunch of teams in that middle that in New Orleans New Orleans is another one right if they win that Tampa game that stupid game that Dennis Allen blew they're in control of the division right now
Starting point is 00:27:19 yeah all those teams you named like had eight or nine or ten games that could have gone any either way you couldn't look away right the raiders had 14 of those i think they only had one bad game against the saints where they struggled to get like three first downs or they got shut out but they they really are like a combination of uh like it's like a car crash where a gender reveal is happening at the same time it's like oh that's nice but oh should i look i don't know if i should. I definitely shouldn't bet on it because I'm going to be on the wrong side.
Starting point is 00:27:47 49ers minus four on a teaser. Thank you. But yeah, so it's very strange. They'd never disappoint in such a big team. So you had the Niners teased minus four? Of course. Everything was looking too easy. So you thought that guy was running it in and you're winning.
Starting point is 00:28:05 Well, when we're up seven, the Raiders wouldn't score at the end either. I mean, I guess I was lucky to be back in it. They were down 10, but for God's sakes, I didn't think they played for me. They played for McDaniels. That's the one thing we're not talking about. They stepped up for McDaniels. Yeah, I feel
Starting point is 00:28:19 like that team's quit on him this year. I don't know where that narrative... They've blown some games, but I never felt like... team's quit on him this year. I don't know where that narrative, they've, they've blown some games, but I never felt like, like what's happening with Indianapolis right now, where they've, now they're quitting on their second coach. Sure.
Starting point is 00:28:31 But I felt like they've hung around. I want to, another four team tease in real life where the, the key piece of it was Miami had to somehow, there was Miami plus eight and a half. They're down nine. I needed Skylar to bring them down and either get Miami plus eight and a half. They're down nine. I needed Skyler to bring them down and either get a field goal
Starting point is 00:28:48 or a touchdown. And he actually did it. He pulled it off. So those four team teasers are like three to ones. I bet one quarterback will still be in the league in three years. Let me hear the four. Who are they? Skyler Thompson.
Starting point is 00:29:04 You had Bridgewater. you had Bridgewater. You had Bridgewater. All right. Okay. I had the Chargers, so I had Herbert. Okay. All right. All right.
Starting point is 00:29:15 That's good. And then I forget the fourth one, but they all hit. It's respectable. But then the Eagles somehow smartly didn't put... Oh, what was the other one where it went backwards? The Panthers. That one covered. Yeah, I think that was the fourth one.
Starting point is 00:29:32 That did cover. Yeah. So Miami gets three concussions in the same season. It doesn't seem like last week was their fault, but it does feel like the karma from the whole thing sunk their season. They're somehow not going to make the playoffs. It's kind of a stunning collapse. I was trying to think like,
Starting point is 00:29:51 imagine if the Cowboys, you know, loss, what are they lost five in a row, six in a row, five in a row, five in a row. Oh,
Starting point is 00:30:02 and now they're not going to make the playoffs. Probably. It would be like the biggest, like it would lead all the TV shows on Monday. Right. Oh, row. Oh. And now they're not going to make the playoffs probably. It would be like the biggest, like it would lead all the TV shows on Monday, right? Oh, sure. Oh my God, Cowboys. What are they going to do? What's Jerry going to do?
Starting point is 00:30:12 Because it's the Dolphins. People are like, yeah, whatever. But what a colossal fuck up by them. They had it. Yeah, we were talking about our over-unders, right? If you had over eight and a half, and what did you say? They were eight and three,
Starting point is 00:30:24 and now they're eight and eight. That's awful. Commanders is a bad one too. They had a, they were like seven and five and needed, it was eight, seven and a half or eight
Starting point is 00:30:33 or something like that. But yeah, the Dolphins, I don't want to make head injury jokes, but for God's sakes, I mean, could you be more unlikely? They brought,
Starting point is 00:30:40 I think they just, they brought the tent to Bridgewater. I'm not even making a joke here. Did you say it was like sitting down and they brought it over him? Oh my God. What is going on with this team?
Starting point is 00:30:50 And why would Skylar Thompson want to step up in this role at this point? So they beat the Texans right after Thanksgiving. And in December, they lost to the 49ers, the Chargers, the Bills, and then that Packers game.
Starting point is 00:31:06 And what's crazy is, look, I don't think the Packers are going to make the Super Bowl, but if they did, it's going to come down to that Tua getting concussed in that game was this fork in the road in both conferences. Because the Dolphins, I thought, were going to win that game. And if they win that game, they're in the playoffs. We're not even worried about who the seven seeders and they have seeds already wrapped. And then on the other side,
Starting point is 00:31:30 the Packers, they're out. If they lose the dolphins game now they're in, and it's just like five things have changed. And the Packers are a more dangerous seven seed than anybody who would have made it right. Washington, Seattle,
Starting point is 00:31:41 Detroit, like they're better than all of those things. Yeah. That was a big, a big turnaround for sure. And the game before that was Buffalo, right? That was Seattle, Detroit, like they're better than all of those teams. Yeah. That was a big, a big turnaround for sure. And the game before that was Buffalo, right? That was the Saturday.
Starting point is 00:31:49 Yeah. Like they could have won that one. Yeah. That was, that was that one. They probably look best out of any of the four that you mentioned the last month. A couple more notes.
Starting point is 00:31:58 I think day ball has to be coach of the year, right? The only other contender was Shanahan who was 12-4 with three quarterbacks. Pretty impressive. Your guy McCarthy, we're not allowed to vote for him, right? It's 12-4. No, but I'm looking at his resume.
Starting point is 00:32:16 When we talked about this last week, he's way far from being fired. He just has two regular season wins in the last two years. He would have to lose to Tampa 40-10. And then he's going to fire. But Dayball, they're 9-6-1. I still can't name
Starting point is 00:32:32 three receivers on the team, even though I watch football every week. Dayball saved Danny Dimes' career. And I got to say, I'll admit defeat on the Danny Dimes thing. My whole philosophy on QBs were like,
Starting point is 00:32:49 he kind of should know after three years, right? If it's not there after three years, it's not happening. And I think that's 19 out of 20 times the case with quarterbacks. And he seems like he's the 20th. Where not only do they have to resign him now, I actually think he'll be in demand. I think multiple teams would want to have him. It's because of what you said.
Starting point is 00:33:11 Like this experiment, whatever, this union that wasn't supposed to work out in 12, 14 games with Dable and Daniel Jones, right? And it certainly wasn't supposed to work out with Richie James and Darius Slayton. Isaiah Hodges. Who would I receive? Zombie Kenny Galladay.
Starting point is 00:33:29 I don't even think he's on the team anymore. Oh, no. Remember the first few weeks we were joking that they were trying to kill Danny Dimes because they kept rolling him out into like three guys. It's like, is Danny Dimes trying to kill him so he could play Tyrod Taylor? Nope. And his numbers aren't even spectacular. I think he was 19 for 24,
Starting point is 00:33:45 19 for 25, and less than 200 yards. But he extends drives, right? I don't know. You don't want to use this Colts game as everything. No, but he's scary. When you bet against the Giants, you're scared of him on like third and five. For sure. Right? That's like the ultimate test. I'm like, oh shit, what's Dimes going to do?
Starting point is 00:34:02 But you give it to Dable over Sirianni? I think he's the other one that's going to get it. Yeah. I'm like, oh shit, what's Dimes going to do? But you give it to Dable over Sirianni? I think he's the other one that's going to get it. I don't know. I think Sirianni kind of blew that one. They're good, but their record is not really that much different than the other six teams.
Starting point is 00:34:18 They played... I don't know. I think it's Dable. I can't believe that team's 9-6-1. I mean, we were trying in the, before the season, trying to make a case for the Giants, I remember.
Starting point is 00:34:31 And I was just getting talked out of it by Giants fans in my life. No way. We don't have the talent. So it's like, no, they got the easiest schedule. It's a weird division. The Cowboys are going to be worse.
Starting point is 00:34:41 Everyone's on the Eagles bandwagon. Like, I don't know. Maybe there's a zag here with the Giants. And all the Giants fans were like, nope, there's no zag. It's not happening. They also nailed the draft pick. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, not a good guy, right? Rubbing it in when a guy's basically crippled next to him. He's doing snow angels, but no, no, but that's, and he didn't even play a lot and they didn't buy the receivers play that. Like I bet them over their win total. But if you would have told me the receivers are out,
Starting point is 00:35:07 we're not going to see Thibodeau for a while and all this other stuff, I might've turned around on it. But yeah, they're damn good. They're going to be tough. I wouldn't want to play them. More stuff from week 17. Tampa had a heroic moment with their punter. That's going to probably get lost.
Starting point is 00:35:23 Yeah. Where they're up, they're punting a midfield. There's like a minute left and it's a bad snap. And I don't know how Carolina doesn't come around the side and just tackle him. This guy wheels around the left. Like he's fucking Tyree kill.
Starting point is 00:35:41 Eludes two guys and punts with his wrong foot and punts it 35 yards, and it somehow goes to the one-yard line. There's a flag on the play. Carolina has to take the penalty because better chance of field position. It kills another seven seconds. It was like one of the five greatest plays of the year. And then the second punt was inside the 10. I think he kicked with his right foot, his correct foot, but rolling left, kicking with your right foot
Starting point is 00:36:06 is almost impossible. That was a bizarre play. He wins MVP, whatever his name is. Another MVP for this week was Ron Rivera, who in his post-game press conference didn't seem like he knew that they would be eliminated if Green Bay won.
Starting point is 00:36:21 Is that a fireable offense? Afterwards, he's like, no, no, that's not what I meant. It's like, no, you seem confused when you were told that you might be done in three hours. I was shtick. I was doing, that's my joke. That's my whole thing. That was bizarre. That was bizarre.
Starting point is 00:36:38 Poor Ron. Well, I mean, he seems so lively during the games. Oh, no. We knew that was fixed though, right? We called that last week. We're like, the league wants the Packers in and Washington out, and they don't want to have to worry about them week 18.
Starting point is 00:36:51 And boy, the Browns and Deshaun Watson made that a game for as much as they could the other way by not scoring. But then eventually, that game was brutal. Well, they got winced. Those were miserable passes and winced through. I mean, I guess they took the Heineken thing
Starting point is 00:37:08 maybe as far as it could go. Yeah. But to put Winston in December with his track record seemed risky on paper. And then within a quarter, it seemed like the worst idea of all time. John Jastrzemski, he was saying this last week because he was on the pod.
Starting point is 00:37:24 He was calling it one of the games that had a suspicious sign he called it a rat line uh huh I thought that was good I think that would be a good
Starting point is 00:37:32 I might add that to million dollar picks next year the rat line of the week nah bro that's a rat line bro that's a rat line bro I'm staying away but the Browns
Starting point is 00:37:40 it's like why are the Browns only one point underdogs in like this makes no sense they're eliminated from the playoffs Washington has everything to play for The Browns, it's like, why are the Browns only one point underdogs? This makes no sense. They're eliminated from the playoffs. Washington has everything to play for.
Starting point is 00:37:51 Why is this line minus three? And the line actually moved toward Washington as the week went along. So that was a classic rat line. We'll have to see what the rat line is for this week. It's funny. It's about a dozen. Watson had some of the worst plays I've ever seen in the first hour of that game, but then he kind of rallied and even got a weird LeBron James supportive tweet that then LeBron got crushed on Twitter for.
Starting point is 00:38:12 Yeah, good for LeBron. There's so much with it, but on fourth and one, are they going to do it? Yeah, they're bringing in Brissette. They're bringing in Brissette for the snake. I'm like, what's this guy's worth? He's 17 for 26 he throws about 160 yards a game watson and he can't even convert fourth and one like yeah brissette does it all right he's out now and let's see some more sean watson mediocrity yeah i want my 250 million dollar quarterback to be able to be on fourth and
Starting point is 00:38:41 one place i had uh 80 for Brady written down with WTF next to it. They started running ads for it today. That's your project, isn't it? Yeah. Isn't that your thing? It is not. Who's that for?
Starting point is 00:38:57 Yeah. Honest question. 22nd debate. Who is in the theater on Friday night for 80 for Brady? I don't know a single Pats fan is going. It's not a date movie. You and Melissa would be like, what did you and Melissa do last night?
Starting point is 00:39:13 We went to 80 for Brady. Is it my mom? Our moms wouldn't go to that movie. Ask her. Get her on. I'm just trying to figure out what's the demo. I don't think Kyle would go. Kyle, would't go to that movie. Ask her. Get her on. Get her on. See if she would go. I'm just trying to figure out what's the demo. I don't think Kyle would go. Kyle, would you go to 80 for Brady? Kyle, would you go to 80 for Brady?
Starting point is 00:39:32 No. No? Definitely not. Jim Gray. That's it. Jim Gray will go. And then that's it. Nobody else.
Starting point is 00:39:39 Jim Gray. That's enough, right? Okay, there's one. If he pays like 55 grand for it, it's almost worth it. The crafts. Right. There's some... A lot of people
Starting point is 00:39:55 are asking me if Brady's going to Vegas next year. Yeah. And my... I don't think the... I won't have inside information probably until after the season, but my gut would say no because his kids are on the East Coast. I think he's got to stay on the East Coast would be my guess. So I do think there's some smoke to the New Orleans stuff.
Starting point is 00:40:18 New Orleans? Yeah, because they have the same agent. Him and Sean Payton. If Sean Payton went back there, I could see it. Yeah. Maybe that happens. I mean, I wouldn't count anything out. I know this is a lame take, but I really, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:40:30 You can't get in these guys' heads anymore, right? Like all the NBA players that want to move from week to week and the quarterbacks are just as bad. I mean, I was looking at it for next year. There's only like seven or eight teams you could definitely name that have their quarterback set for next year. The carousel is going to be moving fast in a few weeks. Is it nuts to think the
Starting point is 00:40:47 Jets are a possibility for him? I've heard that too. Because that team has a ton of talent and maybe Salah, I don't necessarily think he's on the cold seat. I haven't really been that impressive
Starting point is 00:41:03 in this season. And I wonder, could that be a Sean Payton Brady combo destination? think he's on the cold seat. I haven't really been that impressed with him this season. Yeah. And I wonder, could that be a Sean Payton Brady combo destination? Jets have maybe a pick to trade to get Payton and maybe they lock that down.
Starting point is 00:41:13 That would be a really good moment in the Jets-Pats rivalry. Oh, yeah. Yeah, that's true. Which is like a weird rivalry. It's like two sad sacks, but then we were good for 20 years,
Starting point is 00:41:23 but now we're both kind of in the middle of the road again. See, then he has to stay around, right? Then Belichick can't leave. Then he's like, because then it looks like he's leaving because of that. Well, if you're saying
Starting point is 00:41:34 what is the best team for him to go to from the standpoint of the National Football League, it's the Jets. Because then you get the two Jets-Pats games a year, Brady versus Belichick. You get him in New York.
Starting point is 00:41:48 I don't know. Yeah, for the same reason, it should have maybe been the Dolphins last year, right? And I know they tried to get that together, but yeah, it would have been the same similar thing. It might have worked too. Well, shit. I mean, not to sound too morbid,
Starting point is 00:42:00 but the Dolphins might be a possibility too. Like two or three concussions this too. Two had three concussions this year. How many fucking concussions can you have and still play? I don't know if we'll see him again. If that was your son, Archie had three concussions in the span of two
Starting point is 00:42:18 months. Would you be like, cool, when can you get back out there? That's fucking nuts. It's got to be close to it. I mean, I mean, I remember watching Aikman and we wouldn't even know that much about concussions back then. It's like, this guy is not right.
Starting point is 00:42:30 You know, like the stop, stop the bleeding. Right. Yeah. It's, I don't know what's going to happen with that team. Um,
Starting point is 00:42:39 all right. Then the last thing I had for you was best home teams. Can you name the two teams that are 8-1 at home this year? Oh, interesting. It's got to be NFC teams, right? Because NFC teams had nine games. Eagles? Nope. It was Dallas
Starting point is 00:43:01 and Minnesota are both 8-1 at home this year. KC was 7-1. Buffalo was Dallas and Minnesota are both one at home this year. Yeah. Wow. Casey was seven and one Buffalo was six and one since he was five and one with two home games left in Philly, six and two. Hmm. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:15 Philly lost that home to, uh, the one today. Washington. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Uh,
Starting point is 00:43:21 wow. I'll tell you what, I'm proud of my team. I don't care what anyone says. I picked them for 10 wins. Exactly. I'll tell you what. I'm proud of my team. I don't care what anyone says. I picked them for 10 wins. Exactly. They won 12. They won a quarter of the season with a backup quarterback.
Starting point is 00:43:30 Potentially win 13. And then what'd you say? They're going to lose 40 to 10 in Tampa. That'll be a different story. But as of right now, I'm in good shape with that. There's certainly no great team. No. It felt like Philly was edging toward it about three weeks ago
Starting point is 00:43:46 and then that who knew Lane Johnson was the most important player in the league I had no idea yeah I guess we found that out but it just KC week after week is just rope-a-doping teams
Starting point is 00:43:58 and just begging you not to bet them straight up ever Buffalo I think has had a few injuries and I'm still not sold on Allen being 100%. Not sold on them being able to run the ball up 10 in January when it gets cold, etc., etc. Even San Francisco. Brock Purdy is going to have to win three playoff games. Nobody knew who the fuck that guy was six weeks ago. I was reading his bio. Remember? Was that four podcasts ago? I was reading you. We knew nothing about
Starting point is 00:44:25 that dude. Now they're in the two seed, right? Now they leapfrogged Minnesota. And so they're in the two. Which is death. That's death for Minnesota. To me, no chance now for them. But if Green Bay is going to be the seven, that's not great either coming to San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:44:41 I think San Francisco takes care of business for a little bit. I think they're going to last. Yeah, you're right. Maybe that's the Minnesota chances. Green Bay upset San Francisco. I think San Francisco takes care of business for a little bit. I think they're going to last. Yeah, you're right. Maybe that's the Minnesota chances. Green Bay upset San Francisco. But Minnesota will not go into San Francisco and beat San Francisco. We saw today them outdoors is a little sketchy too.
Starting point is 00:44:56 They were talking on the broadcast about Jefferson on turf versus Jefferson on grass. And Jefferson was a non-factor that whole game. For fantasy, I'd imagine your fantasy matchup on turf versus Jefferson on grass. And like Jefferson was a non-factor that whole game for fantasy. I'd imagine like your fantasy matchup and waiting for Jefferson to do something, which is segue to our last thing. Your fucking team won our fantasy title.
Starting point is 00:45:16 My team. Well, not yet. I'm up 24 and I have, uh, and maybe you should stop calling my fucking team because my fucking team could vote somebody out. And I just assume you're going to vote me out. It's so negative about it. team because my fucking team could vote somebody out.
Starting point is 00:45:26 I just assume you're going to vote me out. You're so negative about it. It's the funniest thing to vote me out next year. I'm already resigned. I don't even want to talk about this because I'm up 24 and he has digs and I have mixing and who knows what kind of game digs could have. And I also don't believe that you don't. I mean, the guy who kicked you out,
Starting point is 00:45:40 you haven't spoken to him in like three years. He's a bad friend. He is. the guy who kicked you out. You haven't spoken to him in like three years. So I got to, now I have to wait. He's a bad friend. Your team was six and eight. You were the fourth team in a five, in a five team division. That's right.
Starting point is 00:45:54 Somehow we had some rule that after the top seed in each division, it was like everybody could make it. You sneak in and then you, you have all these guys
Starting point is 00:46:03 that have been on fire. George Kittle george kittle is now travis kelsey 2.0 mike kittle and evans yep brady won me two playoff games and got me goth uh put me in line to win this week i'm not counting it as a win because this is going to sound terrible if i uh if i blow it's amazing well nobody enjoys the power of voting somebody out more than you you created the rule yeah you get to hang it over everybody's head for nine months. I will have more fun with it than most people if I get to do it. I just don't know why.
Starting point is 00:46:33 You should watch it. I know you love this league. I know you'd be very hurt if you had to go. I'm going to take you and House out to dinner this week. Oh. I'm going to pay for it, And then you'll feel bad when, when it comes to vote out time. Can I say this before we take the break?
Starting point is 00:46:50 I was, um, well, you know, uh, as every year, my resolution was to lose some goddamn weight. Cause I'm coming in heavy.
Starting point is 00:46:57 And then you're like, guess who's in town Wednesday and Thursday. I'm like, Oh Jesus. And I'm like, you know what? I'm going to delay this. You know,
Starting point is 00:47:04 the, the people who lose weight January 1st, they go on a diet. They're losers. They really, and I don't mean weight losers. They're just losers in life. You don't do it like that. Those aren't people who should be taken seriously.
Starting point is 00:47:15 You lose weight starting January 12th or 14th, I'll say. 14 sounds great. Okay, that's what I'm going to do. All right. You take the first week of the new year to kind of regroup and then you're planning to tax late January 10th. Yes, I'm going to do. All right. You take the first week of the new year to kind of regroup and then you're playing them in tax like Shane and Rutan. Yes.
Starting point is 00:47:27 I have to regroup. Thank you. All right. We're going to take a break and then we'll do a week 18 lines and all the scenarios. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah. Be safe. Because what you do, others will do too.
Starting point is 00:47:43 Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Not at all. Trains move quietly so you won't hear them coming. You won't hear them coming. See, safe riding sets an example.
Starting point is 00:47:55 Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really? Really, really. Ugh.
Starting point is 00:48:03 This message is brought to you by Metrolinx. All right, Sal. If the playoffs started today, it would be Bills versus Pats, Cincy versus the Chargers, Jacksonville versus Baltimore, which is the shakiest pizza shakies game. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:22 I think we've ever had. Especially if Lamar doesn't play. Shakey should... That's like the shakies game. Oh, yeah. I think we've ever had. Especially if Lamar doesn't play. Shakey should... That's like the Shakey's Bowl. Then in the NFC would be San Francisco, Green Bay. I'm assuming Green Bay. Even though Seattle's
Starting point is 00:48:36 tentatively the seventh seed right now if Green Bay wins, they're in. Minnesota Giants, which is one of those games where I'm just telling you now, I think it'll is one of those games where I'm just telling you now, I think it'll be one of those games where you look at the stats of the different gambling apps
Starting point is 00:48:51 and it's like 88% of the people have bet on the Giants. Right. It's just like, that's going to be a rat line, whatever it is. I'm already scared of it. And then your team
Starting point is 00:49:00 going to Tampa. What's the Tampa-Dallas playoff history? 1980? Didn't they beat you? They won that 80. The John McKay team? Yeah, they beat us, right? Yeah, that's when we lost three years in a row like that. Yeah, they beat us.
Starting point is 00:49:18 Wait, hold on. Is there more? I think that might be it. I don't know. That might be it. Maybe early 2000s? Not a Brady team. Yeah. Was there like a Quincy Carter type of... What was the year Quincy Carter... He lost to Carolina.
Starting point is 00:49:31 He lost to Carolina that year. Yeah. He lost to Carolina a couple of times. Yeah, that game scares me. I was so excited for it. Now I'm scared. Well, the most fun version... And it'll be a night game.
Starting point is 00:49:42 And they'll make that the Saturday night game, right? Oh, that is unquestionably the Saturday night game. We are getting... The first game will be Jacksonville-Baltimore if that's the game. Right. Some NFC game, and then your game. The most fun version
Starting point is 00:49:58 of the matchups... I think Cincy-Baltimore is the 3-6. And Jacksonville-Chargers as the four or five would be more fun. There's Herbert versus Lawrence as a playoff game. That's like, yeah, I agree.
Starting point is 00:50:11 They, they probably still stick that in shakies, but now it's like, at least there's some pepperoni on the pizza for shakies. We lost our shakies, by the way, we don't have a shakies. I know there is.
Starting point is 00:50:21 There's someone said there is another one across town, so we may have to go there. Well, I'm going to have to sample the Mojo Potatoes, see if it's worthy. Alright. The week 18 lines.
Starting point is 00:50:33 So we have... What are the records? Well, you're up 8-5-4. Does that make sense? Yeah. 8 wins, 5 losses, 4 ties. Week 18 now. Alright, so the two Saturday games, Chiefs at Vegas. Mm-hmm. KC gets the one seed.
Starting point is 00:50:52 If they win and Buffalo loses, one of the next two. Right. The Raiders get nothing. The Raiders at least have their pick, unlike about five of these teams. I continue to think the Raiders are pretty good. I had a lot of trouble with this line, and I ended up landing on Chiefs minus six and a half. All right, I said eight and a half.
Starting point is 00:51:16 It's nine and a half. So I get that one. No, that's stupid. Well, the Raiders zigzag, right? Because they were good tonight doesn't mean today they're going to be bad
Starting point is 00:51:27 next week isn't that how it goes I don't trust this Chiefs team against anybody as a high favorite anymore never ever cover they never do cover
Starting point is 00:51:34 so the other Saturday game Jags-Titans it's in Jacksonville yep it's basically a loser leaves town for the four seed, except there's a scenario where the Jags can get the wild card.
Starting point is 00:51:49 If New England loses, Miami loses, and Pittsburgh loses. The Jags could lose this game and somehow get the wild card. Right. Now, that seems like a lot, but then if you actually look at it, the Steelers would have to lose to the Browns. Wouldn't be inconceivable. The Pats would have to lose to the Browns. Wouldn't be inconceivable. The Pats would have to lose to Buffalo. Conceivable.
Starting point is 00:52:08 And then Miami would have to lose to the Jets. We don't even know who Miami's QB is next week. So it's actually not crazy that we could have two AFC South teams in the playoffs, which would be fucking batshit crazy. Oh my God, that would be crazy. By the way, that parlay that you mentioned, if those three things happen, is only like five to one. It's not that out of this world.
Starting point is 00:52:28 Well, and then, yeah. And then the other piece of that would be the Titans would have to beat the Jaguars, which is probably the most improbable part of all that. They played Josh Dobbs on Thursday against your team. He actually looked pretty good. I watched a lot of that game. So he's the guy. Was that an audition?
Starting point is 00:52:46 Or was that we want to save our Malik Willis who we picked four rounds too early? No, they can't play Willis in that. It's definitely Dobbs. You can't play Willis. He can't throw the ball. Unless Tannehill can miraculously come back with some Terrell Owens style
Starting point is 00:53:02 out of nowhere. I don't know why. Jaguars are so much better. Not even because they thrashed the Texans today and that was never a game. And talk about a swagger, but I don't know why. I feel like Vrabel's not done here.
Starting point is 00:53:17 I wonder if this is close. Could not agree more. I was thinking about teams that I wouldn't want to just completely discount. It's always Vrabel. Don't just assume with the Titans. They've done this over and over again. And then on the flip side, why do we trust the Jags? What's trustworthy about them? They beat the Texans. They beat the Jets the last two weeks.
Starting point is 00:53:44 They beat your team in OT. They beat the Jets the last two weeks. They beat your team in OT. Yep. They beat the Titans four weeks ago. They got killed by the Lions. 40 to 14. And that was the one where people were like,
Starting point is 00:53:55 oh, Jags, we fell for it again. Right. So I don't know what to think with them, but they at least have a chance to go nine and eight. You know what makes me think
Starting point is 00:54:02 that Vrabel's not done? Did you see the last two minutes of the Cowboys game? He didn't stop the clock. He had three timeouts and didn't stop the clock and they weren't down 40 points, right? Like he could have, there were a broken tackled score and an onside kick away from being in it.
Starting point is 00:54:16 Didn't stop the clock. Makes you want to think that he's done with this team, but Oh no. Oh, contrary. He's not. Well, they fired the GM,
Starting point is 00:54:24 right? They're on quarterback. Number three, who knows? Henry, But oh no, au contraire, he's not. Well, they fired the GM. Right. They're on quarterback number three. Who knows? Henry, if it's a three-hour game and you have Derek Henry and you have a lead in the first quarter, you're nervous if you're the other team. Yeah, he's still the best player on the field. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:40 So I have Jaguars minus six and a half at home against the Titans. Yeah, you got it exactly. I said seven. You sure you want to minus six and a half at home against the Titans. Yeah, you got it exactly. I said seven. You sure you want to go six and a half? You got it. I'm surprised. If it goes to seven, I think I'm taking Tennessee. I thought I was going to be too low, but I just respect Vrabel.
Starting point is 00:54:56 Okay. So I separated. We're doing it a little differently this week for the Week 18 Lions. I separated in categories in order of importance. So this category is NFC playoff spot on the line. Packers, Lions, and Seahawks Rams are the two games here.
Starting point is 00:55:19 Packers are home for Detroit. Packers win their end. Detroit needs a win. Plus they need Seattle to lose. Seattle needs a win, plus they need Seattle to lose. Seattle needs to win. They need Green Bay to lose. Little rock, paper, scissors action. I am going to say Green Bay is favored by three and a half against Detroit.
Starting point is 00:55:37 Who gets this? I think we split it. I said five and a half, and it's four and a half. I went too high. I don't know why. Red in the Vegas zone, huh? Yeah. Yeah, that's about right.
Starting point is 00:55:49 I do think this game will come down to some sort of massive coaching mistake. Hmm. Like some terrible fourth and one call or a special teams. Yeah. Something, something stupid. Don't you think? Yeah. I just, I't you think? Yeah. I could see between Campbell and Vrabel,
Starting point is 00:56:07 I could see one of them being carried off in a positive way. Like, I can't believe they did the impossible. They beat the Packers or they beat the Jaguars. Yeah. Something stupid will likely happen. When was the last big Lions game? Well, it was. Couldn't it, was it a Cowboys playoff game?
Starting point is 00:56:27 Was there another one after that? Yeah, and we're going back like five, six years for that when Stafford made the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:56:34 Yeah, maybe more than that. But this is like playing the Packers. They have a chance to not only make the playoffs, but send Aaron Rodgers
Starting point is 00:56:40 home. Yeah. He's never said he don't own them, right? That's just the Bears. No. No, they could win this game.
Starting point is 00:56:48 I mean, the irony, the most Lions ending to this would be they beat the Packers, but Seattle wins. And then Seattle makes it. Detroit has the sports movie ending of beating Green Bay,
Starting point is 00:56:59 but it means absolutely nothing. Right. It's like winning. It's like in wrestling when you win, you beat the champion. Yeah, the non-title match from the late 70s. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:11 All right, let's do that one. Seattle and the Rams. So I have Seattle minus seven against the Rams. Let me get this because I have to find it. The line is... Is there no line here? No. It's six and a half.
Starting point is 00:57:28 And I said... Why am I so lost here? I said six and a half. There you go. Wow. What just happened? Sounds like I screwed up. I swear.
Starting point is 00:57:38 I'll show you the thing. People say I cheated the lines. All right. It's right there. It's there. Jesus. You've never read the line and then your pick after. Because your beloved sports book doesn't have some of these numbers up.
Starting point is 00:57:50 I got to fish around. All right. Seattle 6-0. Let me tell you this about this game. Yeah. I could totally see the Rams winning this game. Really? I could see McVay.
Starting point is 00:58:03 This would make the... They don't have their first round pick anyway. Yeah. in this game. Really? I could see McVay. This would like make the nice. They don't have their first round pick anyway. Yeah. I'm not even positive he cared about this week's game against the Chargers. It's all about like next week, knocking Seattle out.
Starting point is 00:58:14 Who knows? But I could see, I think there's a little rivalry there with Seattle and the Rams anyway. And I could see, I don't know. I could just see this one. Cause this, one of these, one of these animated, uh, anyway, and I could see... I don't know. I could just see this one. Because the Seahawks...
Starting point is 00:58:25 One of these animated underdog road coaches, either Vrabel or Campbell or McVay, is going to pull off an upset, or multiple of those. I agree. Feels like it. The Rams, if they got the lead and they started running... Cam Akers
Starting point is 00:58:42 has been playing better, but they're running the ball. That was something the Jets couldn't do. We didn't talk about that Jets-Seahawks game. White Lotus was... I think White Lotus has like seven cracked ribs and they're just not telling us. He was a mess. He didn't want to get hit. They didn't really have any other options, but he was awful.
Starting point is 00:58:57 I don't even do that much in that game. I think they had 20 points. Their defense, which is not good, looked good today because Mike White was so bad. Right. But I could see the Rams hanging around in this one. Yeah, I don't love Seattle. This was their first good game in a while today. AFC playoff spot on the line.
Starting point is 00:59:19 We have multiples, so I'll just go in order. We did Jaguars, Titans already. Bills, Patriots. Pats get the seventh seed with a win. Pats could also get the seventh seed. If Pittsburgh loses to the Browns, Jacksonville beats Tennessee, and the Jets beat the Dolphins,
Starting point is 00:59:36 which would just be the absolute worst way to get into the playoffs. We're eight and nine. We needed three other things to happen. Buffalo gets the one seed if they win these next two or if Casey loses. It's in Buffalo and I have the bills by eight. Yeah, you got this. I went low.
Starting point is 00:59:53 I said six and a half. It's eight and a half. That's a tease. You think so? Because as part of it, if they're going to play him two weeks in a row, or maybe you just beat him and then don't worry about play him two weeks in a row or maybe you just beat him and then don't worry about playing him two weeks in a row
Starting point is 01:00:08 you don't want to show too much in this game right they killed us the last time we played which was what a month ago yeah
Starting point is 01:00:17 it wasn't close it was an absolute debacle and I just don't see as good as the Pats defense has been. Allen just has the Pat's number. It's the way Brady had Buffalo's number forever.
Starting point is 01:00:32 It really does seem like Pittsburgh is going to make the playoffs. How are they doing that? What's their scenario? What do they need? They need the Patriots to lose. Yeah, let's do that now. They're home for the Browns. They need to win. Pats need to lose. And they need Miami to lose to lose. Yeah, let's do that now. They're home for the Browns. They need to win. Pats need to lose.
Starting point is 01:00:46 Yeah. And they need Miami to lose to the Jets. Mm-hmm. Why can't that happen? Yeah, that's only like 4-1, 4-1, or maybe less. Like two is not playing next week. Teddy Bridgewater, I don't know what happened to his hand. He wasn't even good before he got hurt.
Starting point is 01:01:02 Right. And then Skylar Thompson? Yeah. Skylar Thompson and Mac Jones have to lose. And Salah. Let's be honest. Salah might be coaching for his job a little bit. Like if they end the season shitty, I could see them moving on from him.
Starting point is 01:01:21 I just, I don't know about these ribs though. That's the whole thing. Mike White? Who they put in there. Yeah. You know, what they should have done today is know about these ribs though that's the whole thing Mike White who they put in there yeah you know what they what they should have done today is they should have had who's that backup who can't throw
Starting point is 01:01:31 but he's a good runner for who the Jets yeah you know I'm talking about the guy who came in on Thursday and the Thursday oh yeah yeah yeah you were like who the fuck is this guy we forget his name already. I can't remember his name.
Starting point is 01:01:47 Streveler, right? Streveler? Yeah. I would have had a series for him where they just kind of ran the ball and didn't taste some Hill stuff. Because White, you could tell pretty quickly, didn't have it. Yeah, they had some short yard and stuff that they could have converted and they didn't. And that was the game. Well, let's do that one.
Starting point is 01:02:00 Dolphins-Jets. I have Dolphins minus two and a half. Well, we didn't do Steelers. Did you want to do Steelers? We're going to do both of them. Okay. Dolphins, Jets. I have Dolphins minus two and a half.
Starting point is 01:02:13 So I got to find it on here. Promise I'm not there. Probably no line, right? Because we don't know the quarterback. I had two and a half also. It's three. Okay. And then Steelers, Browns.
Starting point is 01:02:25 In Pittsburgh. Yep. I have Steelers-Browns. Mm-hmm. In Pittsburgh. Yep. I have Steelers minus four. No, I said two, and it's two and a half. Ooh. Why are the Browns getting all this respect from the Lions? I don't get it. They expect an explosion out of Deshaun Watson?
Starting point is 01:02:41 Is he going to have a four-touchdown, 350-yard game? I don't think this year. I bet that one tonight. Yeah. I really respect the Steelers. We make fun of coaches all the time. Tomlin's fucking awesome. I love that guy. He really is.
Starting point is 01:02:54 He's really something. You're betting on the 9-8, right? If you're betting on them to win. Even if they don't make the playoffs, that's got to mean a lot to him, right? I went over with them when we did the over-under. What was it? Like 7.5? Mm-hmm right? I went over with them when we did the over-under. I met, what was it, like seven and a half?
Starting point is 01:03:07 And I went over just because of Tomlin. There was really no real reason. They had a couple of good players on both sides of the ball, but ultimately there was no reason to think that team would be 500, but the coaching infrastructure is so good. Well, also I took them, Watt was coming back and their adjusted over-under was five and a half. And I was like, well, they should get to seven wins.
Starting point is 01:03:26 And here we go. They could have more than that. All right. This next category is AFC seeding on the line. So we have Bengals-Ravens. This is a little hard because they probably shouldn't have a line for this because so much of it depends on what happens tomorrow night. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:03:44 They do. They do have one. If Cincy beats Buffalo tomorrow, they're the three seed. If they lose, this becomes a winner gets the three seed game. So I have Bengals minus four and a half.
Starting point is 01:03:58 That was too low. I said five and a half. It's six. What did Baltimore beat them the first time, right? That's why this means something, potentially. The Ravens. That team. I think they're my least favorite team. Just irrational just as a Pats fan. They just bother me. Today,
Starting point is 01:04:22 Hayward gets that penalty because he gets basically shoved back into the pile. The play's done. They're about me. Like today, Hayward gets that penalty because he gets basically shoved back into the pile. And the play's done. They're about to kick a field goal and the ref's just like, oh, 15 yard penalty on Cameron Hayward. And they get the extra four points. It just seems like that kind of shit happens with the Ravens
Starting point is 01:04:38 all the time. Yeah, they need the extra four. Or the field goal hits the upright. Always against them. Right, right, right. Yeah, is Tucker hot today or is he not? Is he going to get a kick block? I think in the last six games, they've scored 20 points once. I know it's because Lamar's out,
Starting point is 01:04:52 but how great is he going to be coming back for this first week? I think that line's about right. That might be a teaser. That might be a teaser game. You know, there's a penalty today that made me think of the rule I always wanted them to have. Did you see Fred Warner's face mask on Hunter Renfro?
Starting point is 01:05:11 No, I missed that one. In the Niners-Raiders game? It was one of those where he grabbed the thing and Renfro had like the exorcist head. It did like the 180. And he not only stopped his progress, but he got flung backwards the other way. It was like the worst face mask of the year. And it was 15 yards. It was the same penalty as the Cam Hayward play.
Starting point is 01:05:31 And it made me think, I say this every year, I think the unnecessary roughness, they should be able to go more than 15 yards. Oh, really? This was like a 40-yard face mask. Yeah. This should have been like, we're waving the 15.
Starting point is 01:05:45 It's going to be first down Raiders of the 10. We're just, that's the worst thing we've seen all year. Well, in college, you know, they review it all now. They look for, they look for targeting.
Starting point is 01:05:57 We're going to throw you out of the next game. We're going to notify your parents as a whole litany of things. What happened in the semifinal on that targeting call when they reviewed it
Starting point is 01:06:06 and they decided it wasn't targeting? They said no. The one that ended the game? Yeah. What was that? It was 100... If that's not targeting, what's targeting?
Starting point is 01:06:13 It's absolutely the rule. They were just like, the refs went rogue. They just wanted to go home. They're like, we're not ending this game like this. We're too precious. That was stupid.
Starting point is 01:06:23 All right. Bengals minus six over the Ravens. Next one is Chiefs at the Raiders, which we did. And then the last one for AFC seeding on the line is Chargers at Denver. Yeah. Chargers get a five seed if they win. I have the Chargers favorite in Denver by eight.
Starting point is 01:06:47 Oh, wow. I thought I was off. I went plus one and a half. It's plus three and a half. What do you mean? Chargers by three and a half. Home team's getting points. It's only three and a half?
Starting point is 01:06:59 It's in Denver, you know, right? I'm aware. Have you seen Denver? Yeah, but do the teams care at five, six seed? We're going to see Chase Daniel in this know, right? I'm aware. Have you seen Denver? Yeah, but do the teams care if they're a 5-6 seed? We're going to see Chase Daniel in this game, right? So they can rest everybody? Why wouldn't you want the 5-seed?
Starting point is 01:07:13 You get to go to Jacksonville. I would really want the 5-seed. Can they lose and get the 5-seed? No. Wait, Baltimore could get the 6 if they lose to Cincinnati Cincinnati which they're supposed to right I'm pretty sure
Starting point is 01:07:28 so you're saying if the Baltimore loses to Cincinnati the Chargers get the five seed anyway yeah Baltimore's 10-7 and the Chargers are 10-7 the Chargers are above them now the Chargers are the five now right yeah but if they have the game at the same time they're not going to be able to yeah I'm not messing around I want the five seed
Starting point is 01:07:44 I want to go to Jacksonville or Tennessee. Well, that's a long line. What happens if Tennessee wins that Saturday game? I was way off. Yeah, then you'll know. Oh, that's an easy bet for you then. Take Chargers' first half at least. At Denver's.
Starting point is 01:08:01 I mean, how many times have people bet on a Broncos game and hated themselves for one reason or the other? Like today, right? They were pissing me off today. I had them against the Rams just because it was Christmas and I was bored
Starting point is 01:08:15 and the game was over in two minutes. Eagles-Giants. I had no idea what to do with this. I just guessed if Philly wins, they're the one seed. We have no idea what the Giants have to play for. Eagles by 10.5. I have no idea. Oh, you jerk.
Starting point is 01:08:34 That's exactly what I had. But the way you were talking, I thought you were going to go way lower. It's 14. Oh, my God. 14. What the hell? So they just think the Giants are going to completely roll over. 14. What the hell? So they just think the Giants are going to completely roll over.
Starting point is 01:08:49 Yeah. That's what I mean. That'd be a huge surprise if Daniel Jones or any of these guys played. It's a monster number. This is why I think Cooper Rush starts for Dallas. Let's do that one. Cowboys
Starting point is 01:09:06 at Washington. Dallas can win the NFC East if they win plus Philly loses. Probably not that likely. I put this in the Vegas zone. I have Cowboys by five and a half. You're just off. I got six. I had it exactly. Plus six.
Starting point is 01:09:23 Yeah, it's a tough one. I mean, I imagine they're going to run these all at the same time, right? So it would have to be Dallas, Philly, Dallas, Philly, San Francisco. So these have to be late afternoon games. If San Francisco is going to play at home, they're home, right? Yeah. That's the next one. Niners are home for the Cardinals.
Starting point is 01:09:43 Niners clinched a two seed with a win. I have the Niners favored by 13 and a half points. All right. So, I mean, who's cheating now? That's exactly what it is. 13 and a half. I said 11 and a half. You got it. You know why I guess that? Because I knew they would have to put it high enough. I don't cheat on guess the lines. I knew they would put it high enough. I don't cheat on Guess the Lines. I knew they would put it high enough that we couldn't put them in a three-team tease and feel good about it.
Starting point is 01:10:11 Oh, we're going to do it anyway. We're doing San Francisco. We're doing Philadelphia. And we're doing the Georgia Bulldogs. And we're going to cash that. In the old days, this line would have been like 11 and a half. But they just bump it because of people like us. They don't want us to tease the games.
Starting point is 01:10:26 Yeah. You know what? 13 and a half. Fuck you. That's their attitude. Oh, yeah. You guys worry about the McSorley or the McCoy or whatever comes down Friday. Never disaster. The guy, the Cardinals guy who I was watching some
Starting point is 01:10:41 of that game because I had the Falcons in a tease. Blow? Blow? Blow? Blow. Yeah, that's our Thanksgiving guy. He always started like that. I never heard one minute of the announcers because I had them on one of the small TVs.
Starting point is 01:10:53 Right. But he made some plays. They hung around that whole game and Atlanta had to kick a field goal to win it. Cool. Yeah. So probably irrelevant. Only one in this one. It's Vikings-Bears.
Starting point is 01:11:08 The Vikings can get the two seed in Chicago if they win and the Niners lose. But as we just covered, the Niners are playing the Cardinals at home.
Starting point is 01:11:17 Right. Probably not going to lose. So I'm sure they'll put this Vikings game at the same time as the Niners game. But this has all the makings of let's start taking guys out in the second quarter once the Niners go up.
Starting point is 01:11:30 So maybe you bet Vikings first half. I have Vikings favored by six in Chicago. Way high. You know they hate the Vikings. I said three. It's two and a half. You know Vegas hates them. Yeah, but have you seen the Bears?
Starting point is 01:11:47 I know. And the Bears, now they can get the second pick. Did you bet that with me? They could get the first, right? I mean, they have three wins. Texans have two. They could still have the worst record, couldn't they? Which one beat the other one, Texans-Bears?
Starting point is 01:12:02 They played. Oh, that didn't happen. That was like week two, and we were joking that. But it doesn't matter because they have a tie, the Texans, so that won't come down to that. Oh, yeah, you're right. They're 2-13-1, and the Bears are, what, 3-13? You know what that was?
Starting point is 01:12:21 The Bears beat them in week three, 23-20. It was that game when the Texans had the ball. It was 20-20 with like 40 seconds left. He knows the interception in his own territory, and the Bears won. Yeah, you're right. Ended up getting the Texans the number one pick, probably. So the Bears, who are a delight to watch,
Starting point is 01:12:42 Justin Fields is 100 yards rushing like midway through the second quarter, most games. They have three wins. They could really get the first pick here. And they traded multiple dudes during the season. Yep. Nine in a row they lost. All right, three irrelevant games.
Starting point is 01:12:57 Falcons, Bucks, and Atlanta. Are the Falcons favored by three? I was way off on this. I said three also. It's seven. So just assume. Yeah. They'll assume the Bucs aren't playing anybody.
Starting point is 01:13:13 They'll assume Brady's playing. That's how bad it's gotten. Panthers, Saints. Who's their backup? Oh, it's Gabbert? Is that who Tampa Bay has? Yeah. Well, they drafted somebody too.
Starting point is 01:13:26 I think that they like. We might see that guy. Remember? It's like a second or third round pick. Panthers, Saints, and Carolina. Saints are playing pretty well. Yeah. I got Panthers by one and a half.
Starting point is 01:13:41 The Saints are favored by four and a half. I said three. Wait, this is in Carolina? It's in New Orleans. Oh, I screwed up. There we go. I did it again. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:13:52 That's when I clinch it. Jesus. Yeah, it's in New Orleans. Just laziness on my part. There's a lot to remember, buddy. I'm blaming. Oh, I like the Panthers now. Last one is Colts. Please, Colts. Stop with the Panthers.
Starting point is 01:14:08 Stop it. You're going to lose a lot with them. It probably hasn't jumped in your account yet. Has it? No, I need Oh, you have the win total thing. I need the win total. They're at six. And now I can't
Starting point is 01:14:24 hedge this. What a dumb team. They should have nine wins. Bane of my existence. The fucking Panthers. Unbelievable. What a stupid year. All those South teams. Colts-Texans is our last game. Really, really awful.
Starting point is 01:14:41 They should not show this on the red zone. Give me one reason this should show on the red zone. Fantasy is done. Nobody cares about this game. They should ban it. Ban it from the red zone. Fine.
Starting point is 01:14:53 I got Colts by two and a half. All right, you're going to get this. I said four. It's three. If Houston wins this game against Allinger, I can't believe the Bears are really likely to get this last pick the way it might work out. You know, I just thought of something.
Starting point is 01:15:15 What happened? The Colts should throw the game. Why do you want Houston to get the first pick? Yeah. Oh, interesting. They could make their pick even better. Where are they in the standings right now? They are 4-11-1.
Starting point is 01:15:35 So they're locked into the fifth pick unless Denver or Arizona moves past them. But then you could sabotage Houston, who's in their division. Although I guess there's no Trevor Lawrence this year, right? but then you could sabotage Houston, who's in their division. Although I guess there's no Trevor Lawrence this year, right? It's pretty polarized in the first pick. No, it looks like Bryce Young is probably going to be the first pick, but yeah, I mean, they've lost six in a row.
Starting point is 01:15:56 You're not asking a lot here. They'll probably lose anyway. True. Colts are minus 137 for the season, which is actually the worst in the league. Wow. Houston's minus 137 for the season, which is actually the worst in the league. Wow. Wow. Houston's minus 132.
Starting point is 01:16:08 And the Bears are minus 121. Those are only triple-digit minus teams. And then the Vikings. Cards at minus 84 is pretty fun. All right, that's it. Oh, is that it? All right, so I win. So, all right, we're closing the gap here Simmons
Starting point is 01:16:25 good job week for me 8-6-4 let's take a break and we'll do parent corner alright we'll do parent corner in a second college football
Starting point is 01:16:42 who do you like so you're in on you're all in on Georgia, throwing them in a parlay with a couple NFL teams. Yeah, just put them in everything. They're destined. I mean, they played the worst game they played probably in five years and they still came out on top over
Starting point is 01:16:55 Ohio State. It's part of my parent corner, the way that went down. Did you watch? Do you like the high scoring games? I did. I watched both games and I thought the TCU quarterback was good. Duggan's good. Yeah. Doesn't he have third,
Starting point is 01:17:10 fourth rounder. And then all of a sudden, two years from now, he'll be starting for somebody like, Oh, I like that guy in college. Kind of has that feel to him. Right.
Starting point is 01:17:18 And it's funny because I think he probably had nine completions like halfway through the fourth quarter, but it does seem like he has more control of the game than he does. He takes off which didn't seem like Michigan knew that he did that. But it is weird with just in football in general. We loved that Raven-Steelers game. It was hard hitting but we knew, like we said, the score was only
Starting point is 01:17:36 going to be 16-13 or nothing. And then you can watch a game like that where the live over-under in the beginning of the fourth quarter was like 99 and a half and like right that seems too low that that assumes that somebody's going to get a stop but uh yeah i enjoyed both games that was a good one that was a really rough jim harbaugh game yeah yeah really rough all kinds of weird shit going on the michigan fans could not have been happy yeah
Starting point is 01:18:03 that ruined ruined any dream because you were getting an ideal matchup no matter what. If they won, they played Georgia, so that'd be one or two, one versus two. And if Ohio State had won, you get the rematch of the best rivalry in college right now. Yeah, TCU's a tough one for the ratings, I would guess. Georgia, TCU.
Starting point is 01:18:22 What's the line in that game now? It's 13 and a half. Oh, my God. What's Georgia? What's the line in that game now? It's 13 and a half. Oh, my God. Yeah, that's like all these NFL lines. It's like Philly Giants and San Francisco, Arizona. They're all the same. So I texted you in-house a couple days ago about the Nuggets. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 01:18:37 Who beat the Celtics tonight. They're still on FanDuel. They're still 13-1. What were they when you sent? Like 15? I think they were. Yeah. Like they were right around there.
Starting point is 01:18:47 I don't think it's. Okay. I think they are by far the best bet right now for a championship bet for value and the whole thing. Cause I think they're going to get the one seed. And I think they're, they have a couple of traits to make. I talked about it on the podcast the other day with a was,
Starting point is 01:19:04 they have a 9.7 million trade exception and then they'll get a buyout guy, but they're going to be able to get a backup center and one more shooter. And, and I just think they, I think they're the safest bet of anybody to make it like Milwaukee is a mess. There's rumors about chemistry going on and weird stories floating around
Starting point is 01:19:21 about them. Now, um, the Celts feel like they're a guy short still, and I'm not sure how they're going to fix it. But now that Sam Houser crashed back to earth, who knows? Brooklyn's coming on.
Starting point is 01:19:32 But just in general, the West is such a mess. Denver seems by far the safest bet. I don't know why their odds aren't better. Because you said this, and then you talked about getting the center and everything, but I was looking at Nuggeteltics is almost 17-1. You don't like that? I don't know if I trust my team.
Starting point is 01:19:53 All right. Nuggets-Fox, 20. I don't know. I think it's too early to jump on an East team. All right. So 5-1 for the West, that's what you said? Yeah, I think... Do you like them for the whole thing?
Starting point is 01:20:08 I just think the 13-1 is better because then you can go against them in the finals even though you never would. Right. But they pass a lot of... They have a lot of check marks if you're just looking at this time of year, where they are.
Starting point is 01:20:22 I think getting the one seed, just the road having to go through them, the fact that they definitely have one of the best players in the league. I think he's the best player in the league, but he's in that short list of guys that usually win titles. And the competition. I watched the Clippers lose to the Celtics, and I watched them lose.
Starting point is 01:20:42 I watched the fourth quarter when they lost the other night. And I don't know. It feels like they're missing something too. Even though they're completely healthy now. But it's like they don't know who their five is.
Starting point is 01:20:54 Even though they know they have the Kawhi George part but they don't know about the guards. The one that's the wildcard team is Brooklyn. Because of the way Durant's playing
Starting point is 01:21:03 and the fact that Kyrie for whatever reason, has been normal for a month. But, I don't know. That team... The East is just in flux to me. Don't you think you can get 30-1 for Brooklyn-Denver? I'm just reading numbers. But that would
Starting point is 01:21:17 mean you'd need five more... You'd need five more normal months of Kyrie. Oh, yeah. No, you're not getting that. That's why you don't do that. Right. You could actually say the Bucs are the best value because in March, all of a sudden, they've won 10 straight.
Starting point is 01:21:35 And we're like, oh, why did we ever think the Bucs weren't the best team in the East? The Celtics just aren't good enough. Is this a stretch? I was talking to our buddy Alec about this. This is a stretch of great player performances that's going under acknowledged, I think.
Starting point is 01:21:52 We haven't seen... I look at the MVP awards every day and it's like, all right, Luka's just on ridiculous run and Jokic had a crazy stretch and Tatum was dynamite for three straight weeks. He couldn't touch his numbers. And then MB like,
Starting point is 01:22:08 and, and Curry, what's he shooting? Like how old is he? And he shoots great. The best shooting year ever. I don't know. I mean,
Starting point is 01:22:16 you got to do more to publicize basketball. I like for value. I vote on it. So I'm not allowed to bet on it. That's right. Well, you know, I don't bet on it. No, I don't. But for value. I vote on it, so I'm not allowed to bet on it. Oh, right. That's right. Well, you know I don't bet on it. No, I don't. But for value,
Starting point is 01:22:29 I think KD at plus 850 is probably the best value. Because he's... I think him and Jokic and Luka have been the three best individual players this year. But Brooklyn has a chance to be one of the top five teams.
Starting point is 01:22:44 Dallas has basically been a 500 team all year. That's why I think the Luka case, I don't know why he's the favorite. You know, they have these numbers. I was surprised to see that you didn't like that they named it. It seemed right up your alley that they gave player names. They assigned former player names to all these awards. That's right up here. That's something you would have done.
Starting point is 01:23:03 No. No? I didn't like that at all. All right, but what about this? Because I feel like every other day someone's name is put up against Wilt Chamberlain. I think you even tweeted, like, Wilt hasn't even done this.
Starting point is 01:23:14 Should there be a compared to Wilt award? Like, how many times Jason Tatum's numbers were compared to Wilt or Yoki or someone like that? Or even Wilt would be impressed. Yeah, there's...
Starting point is 01:23:24 Well, that... There should be, be like a best individual player award, which I think... Did they do that one or no? Different from MVP? But then that complicates MVP. They had Clutch Award. You're saying the Clutch Award? No, I'm just like the best individual season.
Starting point is 01:23:39 That's what baseball should have. Right, right. But Jokic is the best player in the league. Right. And people are like, no, Luka, 50, whatever. It's like, Jokic, the way he affects the other dudes, there's nobody like him in the league right now.
Starting point is 01:23:55 The only other one who really does it like that is Curry, but Curry's hurt. But Curry, same thing, where he can just lift an entire group of players just by being on the court and all the things he does. Oh, he's absurd. Jokic fucking killed the Celtics tonight. And Denver shot 60%,
Starting point is 01:24:13 and anyone's going to win when they're shooting like that. But he was the best part on the floor, and he was going against Tatum, who was the MVP favorite for a month. If you watch the game, you're like, how would anybody not think Jokic is the MVP again? I want to, Fandle,
Starting point is 01:24:27 somebody's got to put up the clutch award. No one's putting up odds for the clutch award. Because no one knows what it is. They don't even want to put them up there. But what is it as you understand it? Do you have a vote
Starting point is 01:24:37 for the clutch award? I think I have to vote on all this stuff, but I think clutch is just like who kind of came through in clutch moments the most. So the last few minutes or? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:24:46 So I guess it would be. And it's a regular season award, right? It's like when, like when Dave Lillard has those stretches when he hits a bunch of like game winning threes. I'm like, oh, right. So do we have a new favorite for the Jerry West award? But I just. I'm excited to see odds for this.
Starting point is 01:25:01 I haven't seen him anywhere. Yeah. I guess I shouldn't be so down on it because it's more stuff to bet on. Yeah. By the way, the fact that Jerry West got a trophy name, was that really just like playing nice with him? Like, all right, they made a whole documentary about you destroying trophies in your office.
Starting point is 01:25:19 So here's an actual trophy they're going to name after you, which you would probably break if you won. We have a sponsor for Parent Corner. It's thecooldown.com. Sign up for newsletters there. They're making climate topics actually interesting to learn about. They give you easy tips on hacks to waste less and save money. Awesome product recommendations and also show you the coolest tech that's going to make our lives better in the future.
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Starting point is 01:25:53 about the climate. We are. All right. What do you got? Parent corner. Well, I got a couple real quick thing.
Starting point is 01:26:00 You know, like Harrison, my littlest one was like just kind of an a-hole the last week of the year. Even with the elf and everyone watching, it didn't matter. So I asked him, I asked him today, I'm like, Hey, are you going to behave yourself in 2023? And he said to me, I don't know. I can't tell the future. So that's good. I think I'm going to use that line for now on.
Starting point is 01:26:19 When you asked me who's going to win, if the Cowboys are going to beat the Bucks in round one, I don't know. I can't tell the future. So you wouldn't even humor me and say, oh, of course, I'm going to try. But I think my parent corner comes. We had family over for New Year's Eve. And it's like my cousin Sally and Mickey. And everybody has kids. And they're running around. And they're doing what they want to do in the basement.
Starting point is 01:26:42 They're playing tag. I don't even know what they're doing. But I'm watching Georgia, Ohio State, which is coming down to the wire. It's coming down to midnight on the East Coast. And the only thing these kids care about is doing the countdown on the East Coast at nine o'clock. And I don't know if you know how that timed out, but they're lining up for that game-winning field goal ohio state right when it's like at 40 seconds and like in my office i have the tv that splits into four screens but in the living room where everybody is i have one tv you know i don't have i don't even have
Starting point is 01:27:15 picture in picture so i gotta i'm for once i'm like sympathizing with like these coaches that screw up the clock management because i have to figure out how to go back and forth. I'm like, all right, we have to count down at least from 15, right? And everyone's like, no, we got to do it at 8.57. I'm like, no, we don't need to count down from three minutes. So you were like Dan Campbell. You were just like doing the headlights. I really freaked out.
Starting point is 01:27:40 I was like in a sweat for a second. A lot of people are going to be mad at me one way or another. And when you're on the West Coast, you're watching the East Coast feed. You're watching people freeze in Times Square. It's a waste to put on. I've watched for 40 years and you don't see one pickpocket, which would be the fun part, but they don't show that. So I got it and the kick lined up exactly. Now I know there's delays and everything, but this guy missed the field goal, this Noah Ruggles, exactly when it struck midnight. And I had to put it on my phone and have the kids count down from four. And so everyone got mad at me, and I didn't see the field goal.
Starting point is 01:28:17 And I had kids screaming at me, and then they went back to what they were doing. I was like, let's stay up for the real, the midnight. That's what we live on the West Coast. We got to celebrate the West Coast New Year's, not the 9 p.m. Eastern. A lot of you haven't even been in New York. Why are we doing this? So I was the bad guy with all my kids
Starting point is 01:28:35 because I only caught the countdown at five or six. They should have figured out a better way to do that. The game should really have to end before New Year's. People like you should have been put in a position like that. Thank you. Thank you. I was over-served last night, but at one point, I remember looking in the TV and Andy Cullen and Anderson Cooper were interviewing the dad from Succession.
Starting point is 01:28:58 I was like, what's going on? A lot of jokes there. Did somebody slip me a gummy? What is happening? I have no idea why he was there or why that was the big interview for them. Yeah. Yeah. It's weird. I don't know. I don't know how it would be better, but it does seem that it's not good on the West coast. We don't have a countdown out here. We don't have like, now there's so many good reasons to live on the West coast. And one of the worst ones is the new year's thing where it's 9 o'clock, but
Starting point is 01:29:26 we're living vicariously through the East Coast New Years, even though it's not our New Years. It makes no sense. And then when it's our New Years, we have to watch the same feed as we watched at 9 o'clock. Yeah, like when Harrison's birthday, it's like, it's 9 o'clock. It's your birthday on the East Coast,
Starting point is 01:29:42 Harrison. It's the day of the birthday. Yeah, it's your birthday on the East Coast, Harrison. Right. It's the day of the birthday. Yeah, it's stupid. I really want to do Parent Corner about my daughter, but I'm not going to because we're feuding right now. Oh, no. You never had girls. No.
Starting point is 01:29:57 Somebody told me senior and high school girls, it's a way more annoying experience than you're prepared for. And let's just say that person was right. My son goes out. So I'll do my son just because I don't, I don't want to. You're not feuding with him yet? Yeah, I'm not.
Starting point is 01:30:16 Somehow he's winning the sweep. He's winning the contest now, the weekly contest with my daughter, just in general, in my life. Goes to the Palisades for New Year's with a friend of his. We come home. It's like, I don't know,
Starting point is 01:30:33 10, 10 30. We come home because he's home, which we find suspicious. Go in the back house where I'm doing the podcast right now. And, uh, and he's back here with two friends and two girls that they just met at the
Starting point is 01:30:48 party. And the party, I guess, the party got blown up because somebody called the police. And they just all decided to come back here. And they were all in the back house. And I pulled them out. I'm like, who are those girls? And he's like, I don't know. We met them today. My son is 15. And he's bringing girls back to our house on New Year's Eve. And we just kind of left them alone. And they left a couple of hours later. And I just got a glimpse into my future of what my next couple of years are going to be like with my son. Were they also 15?
Starting point is 01:31:19 Yeah, they were ninth graders. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, because he's been pushing me to go to parties with the football team. The older kids wanted to go to these parties. And I'm like, you can't. I'm not allowing you to do that. But now I just feel like I'm starting to feel like Dan Campbell with my kids.
Starting point is 01:31:35 I just can't manage the clock. I'm not calling the right plays anymore. They don't listen. They're not really afraid. The threats don't work anymore. Right. Really, my only threat left is you ground them. But then if you ground them,
Starting point is 01:31:48 which by the way, it might be happening with my daughter this week. Um, but then I, then we have to drive them around. So it's like you're putting rules against them, but now you're the one that suffers. Cause now it's like,
Starting point is 01:32:00 instead of her driving, I take away her car, but now, but now we're having to drive her around. Yeah. And it's just, it's like, instead of her driving, I take away her car. But now we're having to drive her around. Yeah. And it's just, I think they hit some point where they just figure out like, you know, it's like, you can only call the Wink Martindale blitz so many times for the, yeah, I'll just have somebody pick that up and I'll throw the flat.
Starting point is 01:32:20 Right. And I'm out of moves. I'm with you. I mean, my kid told me he can't tell the future. What the hell am I supposed to do with that? We're screwed. Once the elf on the shelf is gone, there's no, you know, fear is a mother effort. And now when that's gone, you know, there's really no way to zigzag. You know, when Kyle was young, he was like nine or 10 and we were visiting his family. We were at Kyle's dad's house. And Kyle did something where he got in trouble. And big surprise. Kyle's like 10 and they're on the stairs. And Kyle's dad is talking to him. And I just happened to overhear it. and Kyle's dad says, you're going to sit here and you're going to sit here until you come up with an answer for why you did what you did.
Starting point is 01:33:11 I don't remember what he did. And Kyle's like, but dad, I don't have an answer. I'm going to just be here 10 minutes from now and I'm not going to have an answer. And Kerry's brother's like, I don't care. You're going to sit here until you have an answer. You're going to come up with an answer. And he walked away and Kyle was going, but I don't have an answer. And my wife and I thought this was the funniest thing. And we joked about, I don't have an answer. Anytime it became a running joke for like five years. Kyle, did you eventually have an answer? Kyle, did you come up with an answer? What happened? No, guys, I was the king of the stairs. That was the joke in my house. I was the king of
Starting point is 01:33:49 the stairs. There was four of us. I was the king of the stairs. Yeah. But my point is that was some sort of discipline where at least Kyle, his dad instilled some sort of fear in Kyle of, oh, I hope he doesn't send me to the stairs where I just have to sit there and think. Yeah. I don't have my version of that. Maybe that's what we need, Sal. You don't have stairs? You have like 14 houses. You must have stairs somewhere.
Starting point is 01:34:12 We got to hang stairs. I'm saying my kids aren't afraid of like, oh, dad's going to send me to the stairs. I know, you're right. Dad's going to send me to the basement. Maybe we need like more threatening things. Maybe Harrison should be afraid that you're going to send him to the stairs. I'm with you.
Starting point is 01:34:28 I think me, you, and House, and if Kyle wants to join us, we have to figure this out this week while we're stuffing our faces. You're right. You're right. We need something threatening. Kyle didn't have an answer. Kyle, you better find an answer. But I'm going to be here 10 minutes from now,
Starting point is 01:34:44 and I'm still not going to have an answer. I'm gonna be here 10 minutes from now i'm still not gonna have an answer i'm the king of the stairs how did the stairs work out for you ultimately no i just started i would start to make noise and i think they were like we can't do this because i would just start you know banging my feet and they're like oh now we got this kid on the stairs making noise so i think it was eventually i had to go to a room. He's going to hurt himself. Yeah. He's going to hurt himself in the stairs. Wow. All right. That was,
Starting point is 01:35:12 that was a parent presented by the cool down.com. Um, so what do you have to plug? Uh, well this weekend, Simmons and I'm going to, yeah, this is the weekend. I'm going to kidnap you in house.
Starting point is 01:35:20 I'm just going to take you there. Cause it's extra points live proper Palooza with the Jimmy Kimmel Comedy Club Monday, January 9th. We're there for the pregame and the game right there. Georgia TCU, Extra Points Live, Propapalooza, Vegas.com or Ticketmaster. Get it. They were there the day
Starting point is 01:35:37 before, also Sunday, all day for the watch party, 10 to 430 Kimmel Comedy Club brought to you by Crown Royal. You could come out. We're going to have giveaway betting slips. You could come. Come on. Did Najee Harris need an exorcism?
Starting point is 01:35:55 Did you hear that one today, O'Connor? Oh, yeah, that was good. He's possessed. Oh, he put a humdinger on that throw. He said humdinger today. You know, we talked to them about Kenny Pickett, and God, Mike Tomlin just loves this guy. Does he love this guy or what?
Starting point is 01:36:13 I'm going to be there on Monday. Don't rule it out. Really? Okay, good. One more. He had one more with Mike. Mike, you and I were watching Isaiah Likely in practice, and this guy is uncoverable.
Starting point is 01:36:24 I don't care what the pass rush looks like. He is unguardable. Forget that he only has two touchdowns on the year. You just can't cover him. He's got like 20 fantasy points for the season. By the way, that game, was that the first
Starting point is 01:36:39 game in like 10 years where somebody doinked a field goal, but then they still won the game? Because usually when somebody hits the upright on a field goal, but then they still won the game? Because usually when somebody hits the upright on a field goal, I just assume they're going to lose from that point on. Oh, you're right. It's like the worst omen possible. Yeah, like a punt return for a touchdown or something stupid
Starting point is 01:36:55 like that. Yeah, you're right. Could have been. All right, Sal. Good job by you. Good job by you, buddy. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Cousin Sal. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing. As always, don't forget, new rewatchables going up Monday night.
Starting point is 01:37:12 Sly Stallone. One Word Movie Month. Great stuff. I will see you in this feed on Tuesday. I will see you on Tuesday. I don't have feelings within on the wayside on the wayside
Starting point is 01:37:38 never I don't have feelings

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