The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Still-Young Grizzlies, Best NBA Futures Bets, and 2023’s Oscar Noms

Episode Date: January 25, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Chris Vernon and Joe House to discuss the Grizzlies' three-game losing streak and whether this team could use some veterans before the trade deadline (2:06). They also kick around solutions to the NBA's problem of its stars missing games (19:11) before sharing their favorite NBA futures bets (39:53). Finally, Bill is joined by NYT's Wesley Morris to react to the 2023 Oscars nominations and discuss a strange year in film (1:05:28). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Chris Vernon, Joe House, and Wesley Morris Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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We're also brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. On Wednesdays, I usually tweet a same game parlay that I like for the night. I'm gonna have to do it later than ever this year because just people get scratched. Last week, I had the Kings with the over and a whole bunch of things. And then Sabonis got scratched like an hour before the over didn't hit. It's frustrating because the Kings won anyway. So I'm going to be tweeting those probably closer to the game than usual, but stay tuned for those. We're going to be talking about NBA ads in a second and a whole bunch of other NBA topics with Chris Vernon and Joe House.

I don't know if it's Sober House, Buzzed House, or Drunk House. We're going to find out. And then Wesley Morris and I reacted to the 2023 Oscar nominations. And what an absolutely bizarre year it was for movies. So you have all that. And if you missed it, we put up a new Rewatchables on Monday night. We did Big. One of my favorite movies.

Another one. We're just cranking out movies that I love these days. But it was with Van Lathan and Mellie Rubin. The second hour of this podcast went off the rails in a great way. It was really fun. So you can check that out. You can also check out the Prestige TV podcast where we are hitting The Last of Us really hard twice a week and getting ready for a whole bunch of new shows that are coming soon. I think there's one coming this week and one coming in February

and then Succession's coming. And we just have a lot of Prestige TV coming. Coming up in one second, the Prestige duo, Joe House and Chris Vernon. First, our friends from Pearl Jib. All right, taping this. It is 2.45 Pacific time. Joe House is here.

Chris Burton is here. So we're not covering anything from the basketball game today. You know what we will be covering sometime in March? House, you and I are going to Memphis. Yeah! We haven't announced the date or the venue yet, but you and I are going to Memphis. We've picked a date, and we're going to do a live mismatch show with

Chris Vernon and Kevin O'Connor himself, Kevin O'Connor, the four of us in a TBD location. Vernon, how many seats can we sell, do you think? How many people will come out for this? A lot. A lot. Yes. Yes. I think we, yes, I think we can

pack wherever we want to. Maybe not like FedEx Forum, but we can't get the forum. Let's get the forum. I'll check with the forum. Do you think more people or more ribs that House will eat over the span of 48 hours? If you had to guess, people versus ribs. No, people will defeat it. But look, House could take it down.

I am excited to see. And in fact, we may have to put a bet on this, like how many he can get down in one night. Well, House, the only thing we have to make sure, and I say this out of love, this is a compliment, but you overeat. You know, you're kind of like an animal. You're kind of like an animal.

Is that your theory? I just want to make sure you don't overeat before the live show. I don't want comatose digesting 38 ribs, Joe House. I want in a great mood, so excited that we're doing a show. And then afterwards, we're going to eat a ton of food, Joe House. That's the Joe House I want. That's great. That's great.

I'll be drunk for the show and then we'll eat some ribs so I can, you know, knock the buzz down a little bit. Even going back to college, what is the most amount of food you have watched him eat, Bill? Oh, my God. I mean, that's like asking what LeBron's greatest game is. There's no answer. There's like 35. I mean, the funniest thing with house was the Papa Gino's all you can eat on Wednesdays when we were in college college which was just like what was it 6.99 house it was it was an awesome price all i know is yeah

pizza and pasta we got it all the nights yeah the bar piece pizza and pasta and the only thing that that kept me you know they would say we have to leave we can't stay here for another half hour house we have we've been here two hours we have to leave that was the the only thing that that took me away from the buffet yeah they would they would start side-eyeing house they were like i know it's not a canine buffet but this is kind of pushing the limits guys so were you ever were you ever like huge and fat no never never i i've always I've always had a hollow leg and nice high metabolism and all the hoops we were playing. I mean, many of those Papagino's nights, we came straight from the ball court and went right over for a two-hour dinner. Yeah, we had a barbecue place called Fat Dicky's we would go to.

But the big night for house, just in college for eating, was the ground round. They had some chicken wings deal the wings absolutely and i think you ate like what did you eat like 100 chicken wings like actual chicken wings it was like 98 chicken wings something like that because we could sit and they had this great basketball exactly we watched college basketball and it was back when when both of us were deeply into the college basketball scene. So we're going to have to have like a rack bet then. It's going to be racks of ribs. How many racks? And we'll just do an over-under on it. Don't sleep on house with the fried chicken either.

Like Gus's. Oh, my God. We will be at Gus's at some point. Hey, speaking of the Grizzlies, Verno, so you're there in Memphis. Yeah. You have the best feel of anyone we know in this team. They win. What was it? 11 straight. of anyone we know in this team. They win.

What was it? 11 straight. Soft schedule, but 11 straight. It was nice. Jaron Jackson's back. All of a sudden, he has the best defensive player of the year odds. We're going to talk about that later because we have some future odds stuff. And then Shannon Sharp changes your season.

Things are going great. You're about to beat the Lakers. And Shannon Sharp changes everything. You end up blowing the Lakers game like a legitimate, terrible choke job in a nationally televised game, like an absolute gag. And then you lose two more games. Now you've lost three straight. Did Shannon Sharp change your season?

No. What changed our season, well, look, it didn't change the season. It changed the last three games, was a team filled with under 25s that went on a West Coast road trip. That first quarter against LA, you could tell. Then they went to Phoenix and you get in at whatever you get in, two something. It's Dylan Brooks' birthday. So they come out, they get flamed out by Phoenix, and then it's like okay

get it back together they run into a bus saw Sacramento where Sacramento hits 12 threes in the first quarter last night and look if I if I say anything it is sometimes when you have things like this happen it is it can show what you need and I have I have long believed that they do need to add some more veteran presence. They do need to have some more veteran presence, not only for in the games, but also for those situations. In the end, you have to be able to perform. We were all young. We were all under 25, right?

But you have to be able to do your job. There's a reason why these guys don't win big until they're in their upper 20s. That's when we all started acting like adults also. And you think you can just do anything when you're young and you need those guys that are telling everybody, hey, we got a big game tomorrow night. Let's just keep it in or whatever. It can't just be the coach that's doing that kind of stuff, right? And so I think there is a need

for some veteran presence there. And you need somebody, which this reared its ugly head in the playoffs last year. Who is the guy that's going to tell Dylan Brooks, don't take these BS shots? Like who's standing up to the guy that's going to tell Dylan Brooks, don't take these BS shots? Like who's standing up to the guy, right?

You made some great points, but I think the best point you made, and I have dollar signs in my head house, is can we create some sort of computer program for NBA player birthdays that coincides with road trips? Wow, that's good. It's like on my calendar, on my Apple calendar, it just pops up, Dylan Brooks birthday coincides with road trips wow that's good it's like on my calendar on my apple calendar it just pops up dylan brooks birthday coincides with an la phoenix combination hey so i don't know if you guys remember this but before before baxter holmes brought down an entire ownership group in phoenix he used to a column for ESPN, which gamblers started using a lot. And it was called schedule losses. And he put it out the first of every month.

And he would say, okay, they'll have three and five days. And the third one is this back-to-back in Denver. And sure enough, you'd be looking at the scores and then I'd see like Denver 140, Minnesota 90. And you go, what the hell? And I'd go back to Baxter Homes column. I'll be like, I'll be damned, right? Like it happened over and over again. Well, House remembers,

the first person who ever told me about that was Steve Kerr in the 2000s when he was the Suns GM. I had never heard the concept of schedule loss before. And he said they could just look at their schedule and be like, oh, we're screwed in that game. It's five and seven nights. That's the fifth night on the road. We're going to be in Utah. We're done. So look, I'm not going to make any excuses for them, but I will tell you made like seven an 11 game win streak for a team that's all under 25 and they're going on the road i i would imagine they probably

acted like kings in los angeles and then they acted like new portland soccer mom he's like memphis soccer dad has i'm i'm glad that he came out and he had this this proper explanation because i was worried that it was going to be a two-on-one. Last time, it was me and you on Verno about the James Harden-Ben Simmons trade. And Verno fought a valiant fight. He did. But look, we're not fighting over this one.

Verno's absolutely right. They need some adults in Memphis. I have two suggestions. Mike Conley loves Memphis, knows the golf scene in Memphis. Another guard that would really, you know, give you a little insurance on John Moran. John gets it, you know, you want John healthy for the playoffs.

And then Jay Crowder's a nice, tough guy. Bring him in. He'll stand up to Dylan Brooks and look him right in the eye and tell him, look, dude, let's be selective about the shots. That feels like having two male dogs in a house that just aren't going to get along and might get in a fight at any time. Jake Bowder and Dylan Brooks, they're on each other's corner too much. I don't like that one.

I'm going to tell you this. We had him. Yeah, you did. We had him during Ja's rookie year. That's right. And Ja loves, all those guys love him. Listen to that BS. He was probably, him and I have always credited him and solomon hill when i always talk

about these teams need great veterans to explain to them how to be pros how to win that it's okay to believe in the coach this kind of stuff it's exactly what houston needs right now right is those kind of guys i mean mean, they need 30 things. I know. But I saw it with a young team, and there was a lot. I mean, look at the leadership Jay Crowder showed this year in Phoenix. Oh, God. He's been great.

I know. But that's a whole different thing. It is. And it's part of our calculus for why we're going to collect gigantic wads of money on betting the Phoenix unders this year, BS. I know. We did hit that. Verno, I disagree with the house.

As much as I like Mike Conley and that would be emotional to see him come back, that's not what you need. I need to know who your best five is at the end of games when you're in the playoffs. Who is it? If you look at the best five-man lineup, Memphis has a couple

good ones. That's not on. Their best five lineup. That's not a hard one to come up with. They need adults to help them. The best five for Memphis isn't a conundrum. No. It's one of the best lineups in the NBA, Bill. They need adults to help them get across the goal line. But Brooks is in that five,

and I don't trust Brooks for four straight rounds. I just don't. I don't think Brooks for four straight rounds. I just don't. I don't think you can win a title if he's out there for 10 straight weeks. I think he'll shoot you out of a game or shoot you out of a series before you know what happened. It has changed since they've had Bane and Jaron Jackson both healthy. When the Brooks thing gets bad,

which is when it got bad last year in the playoffs, is when one of them's out. But when all three of them are available and Ja is available, then he can kind of fade back more. It's gotten better in terms of the field goal attempts recently. And then, of course, you have a game like last night where Morant sits, and so it's like free reign. Well, you know what their best, I mean, they haven't played enough games

with Jackson yet to look at all the different lineups, but the best one is Adams, Brooks, Jackson, John, Conchar. Well, that's what's, I mean, that's 17 games. Yeah, but I wonder like, is Conchar the safety blanket? I just feel, Verna, you said to us last month that you wanted them to go all in because you

felt like this was Jha's version of the rookie year QB salary thing, which you've said on the mismatch as well. And yet now there's less than three weeks until the trade deadline. We haven't really had any trades yet. It seems like everybody is kind of waiting to see what everybody else does. I'm with you. I think Denver

and Memphis are both one move away from really being driver-seedy in that Western Conference. But Memphis has more assets than Denver. So are they going to do it? Yes. I would be shocked if they do not. I mean, you've just collected. You've hit on all of these draft picks. They've shown to be promising. So if you're another team, you're getting what you might think is a promising player

for four years, three years in some cases. You've got expiring contracts. So Dylan Brooks' contract expires. Danny Green's contract expires. That's $10 million too, yeah. And you've got all the things. You've got all the assets. You've got all of your picks.

You've got tons of second round picks. You've got the Golden State first round pick. And so you have a bunch of assets and you've got these middle of the road contracts. Like nobody has a bad contract. What do you want for Kuzma? You're the Washington GM. Verna's helping the Memphis run their thing. What are you asking for?

They're going to try their damnness. We'll know. I think we're going to get a lot of body language out of Kuz, but Kuz isn't what Memphis needs. You guys crapped all over my Conley and Crowder suggestion. They need adults. They need guys who have real genuine playoff reps, guys that have played in conference finals,

guys that might have played in NBA finals. Kuzma has played in that, but he's not going to provide that veteran presence that I think that Memphis really is in need of. Name some names for me that are going to be available that fit that mold. They're hopeful that Danny Green can be that guy, but we just haven't seen him play. You know what I mean? Danny Green. He's supposed to be back very soon. I mean, he's coming back from an injury. I know. He didn't keep him from going out and having a good time in LA and Phoenix.

Well, when you're not... They need an adult. Yeah, when you're not playing, it's, you know... Yes. I don't think, honestly, I don't think anybody's stopping these guys from going out if it's somebody's birthday. Not in January. I mean, let's be honest. Go enjoy it.

They should go and join themselves. This would have been an amazing LeBron James come on in for a year and a half team if he was eligible to be traded. When is somebody going to give us an answer why LeBron signed this extension that made it impossible for him to be traded? It was the span of five days. Nobody in his life pointed this out to him. He's got 40 people in his life. Not one person's like, hey, dude, if we sign this a week early, if this goes badly, they can trade you.

And then he would be like this huge prize on the market right now. And he'd be able to basically, he could basically lock down a fifth ring or come damn close if he wanted to. And he just screwed it up. You know what I think you should do? I think you should go. And you should yell that at them at the Lakers game. And we can test your level of celebrity. And we can see.

No, I'm getting kicked out. Would Bill Simmons get thrown out of a game if he pointed to the ground and said, come over here. Come over here. I'll talk to you right to your face. I have the answer for you now. The answer is yes. I think with Shannon Sharpe, I think the fact that he was an NFL Hall of Famer

bought him this weird credibility. So now we know, so Joe Montana can do that, all these different people, you have to have some sort of athletic gravitas, I feel like. Yeah, House House I'm with you on the older, whatever. I just don't know how many of those players are in the league. I think it's cause I always hear these trades. It's like, all they need is this. And then it's like, well, I would invite you to go through all the teams and tell me which player that is. Like you

could say Eric Gordon would be a nice fit for them, but I don't think Eric Gordon's swinging the title. Because I think Sacramento is in a little bit of the same spot where, and we're going to talk about that when we do the future odds, but they have a chance to lock down the Pacific in a real way. They have a three and a half game lead, and we're almost 60% through the season. And you could look at it like, no, we won't do anything.

Or you could say, hey man, we could trade Harrison Barnes and some other thing and get one more awesome guy. But then you go through all the rosters and it's like, who's the guy? Who is it? Who would you want? And it's always less people than you think.

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They're like three and a half games up. So look at those division bets. This is a great time to jump on them. There's way less of the season than you might think. Plus FanDuel lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout for single games with the same game parlay. Don't miss out on that. Place your first $5 bet to get $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose with promo code BS. Make every moment more with FanDuel, official sportsbook partner of the NBA. You must be 21 plus and select state's first online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued is not withdrawal, but bonus bets that expire 14 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a

vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right. So Steve Kerr benched all his dudes in the Cleveland game after the Boston overtime game and apologized in the press conference

and did the classic tried to shift the blame thing where he's like, this is why we need a 72 game season. Sounded like an excuse. We're just kind of used to this at this point, watching the league. And Verno, you're working for, you know, you're going to these home games.

You have no idea who's going to show up for the other team or not. I've had Clipper season tickets since 04. And I think this is my last year. I think I'm out. Wow. This is the announcement? You're done?

Yeah. I think I'm out. I'm out. Before they get the new arena? After four years of Kawhi and Paul George rest management or looking forward to somebody coming in and having no idea. Like Jokic a couple weeks ago. I couldn't have gone to the game anyway because football,

but it's like, oh, cool. Jokic comes twice. There's one cross that off. And I just think the NBA is at a point now where they have to tell us whether they give a shit or not. And I don't think they do. I don't. I don't think they do.

I think they talk a big game. They talk about the fans. They talk about the product and the safety of the players. But I think how this has evolved over the last five, six years has actually been embarrassing. It's incredibly anti-fan. And it's like, well, the Cleveland fans should know there's a chance the Warriors... How do you know? How has this helped grow fans? This is like to me, House,

when we were growing up, when all of a sudden the baseball playoff games were on after midnight and we all looked at each other and we were like, this is bad. This is going to ruin an entire generation of fans. This is how this is going to play out. And now you look at baseball. I don't think it's going to be that bad with basketball, but they have to fix this. And I think actually what Steve Kerr said is something that I've been saying for a while. And I actually think they should really think about this. I think the 72 game schedule with real rules and penalties in place for the rest management stuff where you, you have just less last, you take away 10 games and you could rig this where this stuff doesn't happen anymore. It would make the regular season more important.

Every game would have a little bit more juice to it. And I just think they have to try it. I think they have to do something because this fucking sucks. It does house your response. Yeah. So I, I couldn't agree more. You, you can't continue to disrespect your fans in this manner and continue to tell us that the regular season doesn't matter in this manner and ask people to pay the amount of money. The Cleveland people get one chance to see Steph Curry, right? One chance, and the schedule eliminates it. Speaking of a schedule loss, I heard a lot of the outrage Friday night into Saturday. The best suggestion that I heard was eliminate back-to-backs altogether. No teams play any back-to-back. In the regular season.

I'm not a math major, and I don't know schedule-wise what that does in terms of October and June to be able to accommodate all 82 games. But that combination of eliminating the back-to-backs, and then if you want to rest players, then you must do so. And the penalties have to be extremely severe then you must do so. And the penalties

have to be extremely severe. You must do so at home. You cannot rest players on the road. These people, these fans, all of us pay the extraordinary amounts of money to go to the games and see these. We have one opportunity to see a lot of these West Coast teams, especially situation in Washington. You're watching 39 win teams every year. And it's like the highlight is when these guys come to town. Yes. So, well, Verno, what if they just said every team plays three games a week, that's it.

And we don't know what, there might be like two in a row and then four days rest, but we are going to have the schedule. It's going to be for 24 weeks. Everybody's going to play three times per week, and that's how we're doing it. 72 total. You play the other conference twice. You play your own conference three times.

This will make the product better. Here we go. Why couldn't they do that? Would that not make the sport better? I am open to literally any idea that could fix this. One that I saw the other night, I believe it was Nate Jones on Twitter, and it's something I've never heard anybody bring up.

He was saying that there are, all of these teams now have this inordinate amount of people on staff that are like the health staff or the sports science staff or whatever. And they have the season charted out prior to. And so in the effort of complete transparency, teams should have to announce this. And they say, look, you don't have to be a rocket scientist

to be able to look that far in advance and say, look, it's a Thursday after this Boston game, whether that game goes to overtime or not, that there's a, you know, here's where we have marked as these are going to be our possible rest days. Like they look at the schedule in advance. This isn't just done on a whim. Like they knew that they were missing that.

We're worried about Kawhi's knee. Yeah, they're not thinking that way. They're thinking it's October. These are planned out. And so for what you have, at least at the beginning, there needs to be transparency. Now,

the problem is you have to do a sort of art advance. There's always going to be injuries, but you know, it is not fair to the guy that spent $2,000 on tickets in Cleveland for his kid, who his kid wanted for Christmas just to see Steph Curry. How about the guy who spent a hundred dollars in tickets who didn't have a hundred hours.

And this was like the most he spent on anything. I, so we have all this dynamic pricing that is so easy for teams to do. And they, some of them even do it for some of the games, right? When John Moran comes to down, that ticket is going to be worth more than when the Rockets come to down. Like a lot of the even do it for some of the games, right? When John Morant comes to down, that ticket is going to be worth more

than when the Rockets come to down. Like a lot of the teams do this. I think most of them do. Why couldn't they have a thing house where there's 35 players on the list and it's like, here's the Denver price if Jokic plays. And if Jokic doesn't play, it drops 40%. If you have Golden State, oh, Curry and Draymond are out,

that drops 50%. Could they ever do that? Or then they'd have to target, they'd have to say who the dynamic pricing stars are. But I'm telling you, that's a better solution than this solution where it's like, hey, Cleveland, you're fucked. Bend over.

Anything that will have the effect of lessening the impact on the fans, I support. So all creative ideas. But the most important thing to me is when a team goes into a venue and those fans only have one chance to see that team, that that team feels it's best players. They have to emphasize that above all else. If they're going to insist that the regular season matters. I'm with you. That's step number one, right? The penalizing. If you miss, if you are resting road games, that's where you choose to do your resting that, that get penalized. I agree. You know, Ethan Strass wrote a piece about football ratings and basketball ratings. We've talked on this podcast about there was this moment where it seemed like football was

going to, the arrow was pointing down hard. I think the pandemic and some other things. Now it's like everybody loves football as much as they ever did. And the basketball ratings continue to go down. And a lot of people have signed different blame for it. I think part of it is the season's too long. I also think the content is so available all over the place. They almost don't have to watch the games. You just go to Twitter or Instagram or TikTok. My son doesn't watch any basketball games. He knows, and I'm sure, Vernon, I'm sure your kids are a little like this too. He gets a lot of his information from TikTok and like, oh, did you see Ja last night? And he just sees it from social. And I almost wonder if Ethan's theory

about the NBA was so generous with putting their content and trying to pull in young fans that it had this inadvertent consequence of, ah, you don't really need to watch the game. So you have that combined with, oh, I was going to watch this game, but Kawhi and Paul George aren't playing.

And the combo of that and the season being too long, and even though the play-in, I think, has added a little luster to it, I still think the season's too long. I've always thought that way. And I still think they should look at changing it, but I think they're too greedy. Well, I will say that regarding my son, and this is from a very young age, good example, right? The West Coast games. He can't stay up for those. But since he was probably, I'd say seven, he watches on YouTube. They do the super cuts of the games.

So if you wanted to go this morning, they have full game highlights and it'll probably be about, I don't know, 11 minutes. You want to find out what happened in the Grizzlies Kings last night? He watches the 11-minute video of what happened in the Grizzlies Kings. Your friend Bill Simmons. That's how I catch up on a lot of these games. That's how I'll sit and watch certain games beginning and end. But if I feel like, oh, I want to get a feel for that Miami Atlanta game

that we were at dinner for, I'll watch that super cutcut it's great yeah and so i don't think it's helping the ratings but i do think it has helped with young fans i i agree i don't in terms of the level of interest in terms of the level of interest that they have because one of the things that's not taken into consideration is and we i know this i'll give you an example bill just from doing the podcast right well like if we do nfl podcast you don't have a worldwide audience you do an nba podcast it's a worldwide you get new zealand and brazil yeah that's real like you know what i mean i remember when me and kevin were getting our numbers from new zealand and australia and like all these like wait what like i had no idea these people their people are listening all over the globe and they care deeply because they just want to get information

or if i go and tweet out like hey what time is it where you're watching this game? Whatever. I mean, there'll be 30 something different countries represented just on Twitter. So, I mean, it has it does have a global audience. And I do think that there is a young audience that has been attained. And I say that as someone who my son just turned 13 and I get it. Morant is in my town, but he's always cared. And it's what's cool to them. I would say, I would say amongst,

if I were to go poll like a group of them, I would say there would be maybe Mahomes and that's about it. Of the, like if we, if I said your favorite athlete. Yeah. No.

Any athlete. Yeah, but you're in Memphis where you have the most exciting under-25 player in the NBA. Okay, let's go. I would say houses. Let's go to Boston. Go ask a 12-year-old in Boston

who his five favorite athletes are. Yeah, Tatum would be one of them. But who his five favorite athletes. How many of them are NFL guys? Interesting. Probably a quarterback. Somebody would pick one of the quarterbacks. Mahomes, that's it.

He's the guy, I'm telling you. One-legged Mahomes. House, you think you would keep this season at 82? It sounds like you would. Yeah, I would because we're having this conversation in January. We're in that transition period. I need NBA basketball from February to May. And it's really like this is when the NFL drops out

and then it's just basketball and hockey and college basketball. And let's be honest, college basketball at this point is just two weeks. It's March Madness. And otherwise, to me, maybe I'm confessing something about my stage of life. I don't care about conference college basketball anymore. I care about March Madness and I'll watch some of that. But otherwise, I'm deeply interested in the drive post-trade deadline, from trade deadline

all the way up to playoffs. It's the NBA, NBA, NBA. And I think that's when the sporting world's focus really shifts over to the leagues. And you need all the games to be able to fill that interest. Yeah, but you didn't mind at all when it didn't start until Christmas a few years ago, did you? Exactly right. That's precisely the point.

I agree. If you wanted to do 70 games and run it from Christmas to right. That's precisely the point. I agree. If they started, if you wanted to do 70 games and run it from Christmas to June, that's fine with me. I don't have any problem with that. Okay, so it's just the timing. It's not the amount of games. It's the timing. Yeah. There's one other suggestion that's been floated around a bunch about whether there should be a game minimum

to be eligible for some of this all-NBA all-star bonus, all that, that like basically tying in durability as a strength for contracts, which I thought, I thought was pretty interesting. If they said all NBA was 65 games, that's it.

And you have to get to 65 or you're not eligible or 67, whatever it is. I wonder how that would change stuff. Maybe some guys wouldn't even care. I don't know. But worst case thing, if we're going to compromise on anything, if there's one idea that I feel like everybody would kind of sign off on is if you cut it to 76 games and you did the 72 plus, instead of playing your own conference three times, you then play your own division a fourth time, have a home and home that would get you to 76 really easily.

And then we're done. 82 is like, this was something that I was obsessed with when I was doing my book. These ideas that people came up with a million years ago. And then it was like, well, that's how we owe it. We've always done it. And they came up with 82 games over 50 years ago, because guess what? The league wasn't doing that well. So they scheduled a whole shitload of games to try to make more revenue. There was no rational reason. It was not like they studied it. They just kind of landed at 82. At one point, it was 72. And then they kept bumping it up.

Look, what they've done, actually, is they've added games. I know it's just the play-in. And who knows what's going to happen with this mid-season tournament? How that fits in. Because that's happening. Yeah, because I was looking at... Oh, this is another thing I want to throw you guys.

It's a good segue, actually. Because this LeBron, people are doing this whole, oh, LeBron, nobody's ever done this before. And it's amazing what he's doing. I'm conceding that. But I was really glad that Ramona Shelbourne went and interviewed Pat Riley about Kareem today. Because guess what?

Kareem did this. Kareem at age 38 was fucking awesome. He was the best player in the 1985 finals. And I know that because I went to the games and he killed us. He destroyed us. He changed the series. He was 38 years old at the time.

His 84, 85 season, he turned 38 in April. In the finals, he was 26 and nine, 60% shooting in the finals. In his 85, 86 season, when he was 38, turning into 39, he averaged 23 and six, 56%. More importantly, House, he played 98 games, including playoffs in 84, 85.

And he played 90 games in 85, 86. So I'm just removing LeBron. I just feel, I wrote this in my book and it's worse now. Kareem is the most overlooked superstar in any sport. It's unbelievable to me.

It's like he never happened. The guy was a fucking absolute unicorn and gets no credit. And think about the physical challenge in the mid-80s. A shit kicked out of him. All the benefits now of hyperbaric chambers and all of the advancements in medical science

that lead to enhanced, uh, recuperation and, and recovery. He did some of that. Like he, he was doing yoga. He had like, he had like, he was the first guy to kind of have a diet, but that was it. I mean, it was like, whoa, Kareem's doing yoga. He also did like, he did karate versus Bruce Lee. Right. But Kareem, he goes all four years in college,

and then he plays all the way until he's 42 years old. He was kind of done the last year and a half. But age 38, age 39, age 40 was still like a really important NBA player. Put some respect on Kareem's name, goddammit. Hey, hey, hey. I like this. And by the way, my least favorite NBA star of all time. I on Kareem's name, goddammit! I like this. And by the way, my least favorite NBA star of all time. I hated Kareem. He's been calling him a ninny. He's been calling Kareem

a ninny for 30 years. You probably hate LeBron more now. Come on. No, Kareem's still my least favorite. We're doing like the rankings. Come on. Who annoys you more? At least Kareem's old now. Come on. Kareem on the court annoyed me the most. LeBron, the way he just kind of jumps sides, depending on what's in it for him, annoys me. Like the Shannon Sharp thing was classic LeBron.

But you always jump. If that had been Skip Bayless yelling at Russell Westbrook, he would have reacted like there was like an invasion from a foreign country. But you always jump me for the zags. You love when I zag. I like this. Everybody's praising how awesome LeBron is right now in 38. Hey, hold up, everybody. Let's talk about a guy who did it in 1985. This ain't that great.

It was great. It's my only point. I just don't want to hear that. We've never seen this before. It's like we've literally seen this before in the NBA finals in the last 40 years. I just... One of the things that's frustrating...

One of the things that's frustrating to old guys like Kaus and I is that people seem to think professional sports started in like 2000. And it's just the way it's going. Like even today, my guy Steven Ruiz, who's doing a great job for the ringer, and it's just the way it's going. Like even today, my guy, Steven Ruiz,

who's doing a great job for the ringer. He, he theorized that the Brady Manning debate started like the whole QB debates that we have now. And it's like, actually we were there when it started. Cause house and I are both fucking old, but it was Marino versus Montana versus Elway for what?

12 years of our life. We argued. And then it was Sanders versus Emmett and we would just sit in a bar and fucking argue about that for an hour. Real legitimate arguments. House, were you a Sanders guy or an Emmett guy?

Well, I suffered at the hands of Emmett so much more religiously and regularly. He was in the division. I put respect on Emmett's name. Verno's a Cowboys fan, so he was an Emmett guy. Were you Montana, Marino,

or Elway? What was your side on that one? Always Montana. Montana, Montana, Montana. That's where I was too, Verno. Did you have an opinion on that? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Joe Montana was the guy because he was the guy that won. That's it.

He's the guy that won. He's another one. Montana and this Kareem Khan. Montana's another one who's just been shoved into outer space when he's mentioned these great debates. What's weird because I get with that. He was the mythology when I was a kid. He was the, hey, it's John Candy in the stands. Remember that old story?

Oh, yeah. And then he goes, he was the original Joe cool. And he was the guy that was so, I mean, when I was a kid, much like y'all, it was, I mean, my father got sports illustrated. So the guys that were the cover of sports illustrated, those were the guys. And Montana was like, it's like Superbowl Joe. And it was always, you know, I mean, I could visualize these covers of him being on. He was just, I mean, he was the guy this is before the Brady stuff, you know, and I'm sure that you were, you were saying that too, right? When Brady was going through his, you were like, why is everybody acting like this hasn't been done before joe montana did it brady needed the 28 he needed the falcons game because to me i was never going to put anyone over montana and then the falcons game well i was like all right he did it that's the greatest thing i've

ever seen a quarterback do on top of he has all the other resume stuff i want kareem i really want kareem to come on my podcast. I know I called him a ninny in my book a hundred times, but I really respect that guy. As a basketball, it was out of love that he used to kick our ass. And he also threw an elbow at Larry Bird once, which it took me a while to forgive. But let's take a break. I'm going to do NBA Futures. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe. Because what you do, others will do too. Others will do it too.

So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Not at all. Trains move quietly, so you won't hear them coming. You won't hear them coming. See, safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me.

Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up.. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really? Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. Okay, we have 20 minutes left on the clock.

We're going to talk about NBA bet value right now. This is the perfect time to do it. With the 40% left of the season, there's some crazy odds all the way around. For instance, Verno, your guy Triple J is minus 195 on FanDuel to win Defensive Player of the Year. Now, I would say if the season ended today, he'd probably win Defensive Player of the year or be one of the two or three guys. And then you look at the other candidates and it's like, eh, it's probably going to be him.

All the advanced metrics could not be more in his favor. I'd test the whole thing. But he could also get hurt tomorrow. So I look at odds like that where he's minus 195. Why would you do that? I'm just saying, like, it's so early to have, like, a giant favorite.

Like, Jokic is plus 110 to win the MVP, and I would say he's just as much of a favorite to win that as Triple J, but defensive player... So it just feels like there's value, and I was looking at the rest of those defensive player of the year. I vote on it, so I can't bet on it, but I was like, I wonder who this year's Marcus Smart is.

And I couldn't come up with a name. That made me think maybe the Triple J odds are actually pretty good. But what did you think when you looked at that? I think Bam at plus 2200 on FanDuel. I feel like he's gaining a lot of momentum. Because they're playing better too. Yeah.

Yeah. And he's also the only one, OG does it, Ananobi, but it doesn't get nearly as much attention. But his team doesn't win either. No, no, no. But Bam goes out there regularly and says, I'm that guy. I'm that guy. So if you, you know what I mean? The guys that like somebody like Jared Jackson Jr.

cares about that award deeply. Somebody like Bam Adebayo cares about that award deeply. I don't think you're going to see the Brooke Lopez. I'm the best defender, you know, quote. I don't think you're going to see Nick Claxton. Nobody respects my defense quotes.

You know what I'm saying? But anybody that like might go out there and politic for themselves and then get the general consensus to be like, ah, you know, and Miami, I mean, they played better recently. And if they got on a good second half run towards down the stretch, he's kind of been what's held that thing all together. I would say if I'm looking at a long shot, that's who I'd take. I mean, I think Jaron Jackson will win it uninjured, but I think that

a guy that has been vocal about wanting it and is probably going to be on a good team with a good record, I'd say probably that. He's already missed 14 games, which is why I was surprised he was a heavy favorite like that. And the Bam thing, that's probably the other one, right, House? Do you have anybody else for that award that could be a sleeper? Yeah, I'd prefer to play Giannis than Bam. And the reason for that is because I feel like Giannis is going to get closed out of the MVP vote.

And I feel like voters might look to reward him for the season. If they go on a run, right? Because they got Chris Middleton back. If those three guys are healthy for this stretch run and they reel off like 19 wins in 24 games and all of a sudden they're right there neck and neck with the Celtics or above the Celtics for the one seed in the east uh it will be because of of yannis you know exerting his will and that to me it's going to be hard for him to jump over uh joker and luca for mvp so i think that that would

be a way to split it but the only observation I'll make right now is there's no scenario under which it makes a lick of sense to lay juice on any of these player awards. Yeah, totally agree. You didn't mention Giannis is 20-1. Lopez and Claxton are 7-1 each. I agree with you, Verno. You got to campaign. That's one of the things that

helped Marcus Smart last year and the teammates have to campaign. So yeah, I would say Bam's the best long shot. When we got to this point in the season last year, Boston's like a 500 team. Yeah. And then they clamped down, went on that crazy run the rest of the way and had the number one defense.

So if there was somebody, that's why Jaron Jackson is at the top because they were 30th in defense. He came back and then they became first. But if somebody just became the best defense in the NBA for the last couple of months of the season and strangled people out, then they'd say, best player, best defense. And so that's, you know, you got a chance on.

I mean, that's not going to be true of Brooklyn. 100% not going to be true. If it's true of Milwaukee, I think I agree with House, that though Lopez has gotten a lot of credit, I think people would probably lean towards Giannis. I'm not ready to go there. Zach was kind of test drove a

DPOY Lopez case with me on one of our pods. I made a face. Ananobi's 25-1. The only reason I mentioned that is he could get traded tomorrow and go to a contender and absolutely kick ass for them the rest of the way. House, my favorite bet

of all these futures I tweeted today was the Kings to win the Pacific, which was still plus 170. They have a three and a half game lead. All their dudes play. Gold State's plus 190. Phoenix is plus 340. The Clippers are plus 650. I was stunned that they weren't minus favorites to win the division. All their guys play. They have a really good home team now and a crowd that

really affects those games. And I would actually just be surprised that they didn't win the division. What do you think of that one? Yeah, I like it because Sacramento is motivated to play. So I'm knocking on wood that everybody stays healthy. That that's the key, obviously for anything like this at this stage of the season, but they they're, they're similar to Phoenix last year in the sense that Phoenix won 64 games

because they played every one of the regular season games like it goddamn mattered they were pissed off about the way the finals went they came in and they tried to burn the house down this Kings team is has an identity they've developed an identity and the best way for them to to have success going into the playoffs is to keep pushing keep pushing keep pushing they want to win. They love, you know, they have a great chemistry. It's obvious that they really enjoy playing with each other. And when you go down and look at the Clippers, the Suns, and the Warriors,

just giant warts all over all three of those teams. Also, they hit that pick that we all made fun of. They hit the pick. They took Murray. I can't believe they didn't take Ivy. Ivy is such more value. Those were things I said in June. And Murray's like perfect for that team.

I love that plus 170. And also a really fun story. Have you seen what they do with Murray at those games? So I don't know. You might be able to hear it through the TV. But when he like shoots a three, they go, like the PA announcer's like, Keegan, and the whole crowd goes

Murray! It's unbelievable for a rookie player. You know what I mean? They got crazy. That whole environment. I know they've been starred for it, but the whole light the beam and the whole crowd. I love it. I'm going next month, Taz. You're going?

Yeah, I'm going. I want to see it in person. It's not that far from here. Yeah. I'm going. I'm going next month. You're going. Yeah, I'm going. I want to see it in person. It's not that far from here. Yeah, I'm going. I'm going to, I'm going to light the beam myself. I mean, it's fantastic. It's great. Verno, what's your favorite future bet? So I, I went with one of the long shots. Um, I went, I went with one of the long shots because I think that it's probably good value. And that is Cleveland in the East Finals. Oh, okay. What do we have for odds for that? We have...

Well, so they're plus 900 to win the Eastern Conference right now, right? I believe that's correct. So those two, like them and honestly Miami at plus 1900. But Cleveland is, of the teams that I have seen in person this year, they were the one, and I saw them without Mitchell, where I thought, boy, if they get a wing or if one of these guys can do something. I mean, Garland is wildly underrated. And it's just because Mitchell's average 30 something a game and had the 71 and whatever else.

But I talked to the guys in Cleveland while they were here and And they got an unbelievable vibe. Mobley is getting better and better and better. They all really like each other. They tell me that Mitchell is like a godsend superstar. Like, and they all like, they all love him. And he's been this great teammate and he's not arrogant at all with them.

And he's like, just fits in he's not arrogant at all with them and he's like just fits in with them and they all kind of, and he's like a real leader who gets the crowd pumped up, whatever. And I'll tell you this, man, dealing with those two guys that can beat you off the dribble and then Mobley who,

they've got to get a little more SOB out of him, but he is so wildly talented. And then Allen is a finisher and they're so big inside i just think they are going to present so many problems for somebody that they match up with that i i really believe that that team if they stay healthy can be in the conference final and if they were able to get like a knockdown shooter. Yeah. Then you can hedge it in the finals. Cause I even like their veterans off the bench. You know,

they got the Rubio love. Yeah. They need, they need one, one wig, one wing that I would trust. They're 29 to 19 right now. So they're in fifth place.

But like you said, it feels like they haven't had their entire team together for more than like two weeks at a time. So if they had a little better injury luck, that could all of a sudden be like a 32 and 16, something like that. They get back in transition and so they make it heartbeat. No, they're good. I'm with you.

They've always been to me like on that short list. House, I guess I didn't have them. I looked at it for my favorite future. I just don't know if plus 900 is enough value for it. I would rather bet them series by series. I think the one thing we've learned, because House and I love the futures, and I know you do too, Berno.

I was just going to do a long shot. Yeah, no, I wish it was like 13 to one. Because I remember, House, remember when I texted you and Sal a couple weeks ago? Yes. And I was like, the Denver odds are too high. They're 12 to one. They're 13 to one on FanDuel

to win the title and like plus 600 to win the West. I was like, they're going to get the one seed. There's no way they're not. If they're not one seed, they'll be the two seed, but they're probably getting the one seed. And now those odds have dropped to the point it's not even worth it. So who do you have as your future sleeper house?? So I have in that I'm in the same conference as Verno, and I feel like the Sixers aren't getting enough respect. The Sixers? Oh! Who did you think I was going to say? I thought you were going to say Miami. I was going to yell at you.

No, no, no, no. I'm out on Miami. I've seen enough of Miami. Unless they make a sizable, meaningful trade, I'm out. I don't need to see any more of what they have. They just don't have enough weapons. I think the East is better. I don't have the pathway for Miami. Philadelphia has caught my attention.

18-4 over the last six and a half weeks. Joel back to being the leading scorer in the NBA, like very quietly, number one scorer in the league. This is always a bet on Joel Embiid's health, but they're thick. Like they have depth. What they did in the offseason to acquire and build up depth on the wings,

it's impressive to me. And I think this season, Harden, you know, they've got the chemistry that they couldn't really figure it out. This is great. I can't wait to clip this out and send this to you two months from now. You know what? I'm not offended by it. I'm just saying

at plus 750. I love this so much. You know who I love? James Harden. You can't put Brooklyn at plus 440 in the stickers. Has also been on Dak Prescott. Who else is in the Joe House Gambling Club? This is ridiculous. Dak Prescott, James Harden. Who else do you have?

This is outrageous. This slander is unwarranted. Naomi Osaka, he loves her in every major now. This is outrageous. I won't tolerate any of this. This is complete nonsense. This dude said he was going to bet on James Harden. Hey, I'll tell you what.

You said you guys were coming to Memphis. Just bring that money and throw it in the fucking Mississippi River. Where are they going to book their Philly bets? We're just talking about value. They're not, you know, you can't say implied probability of Brooklyn at plus 440 is whatever that translates into. And the Sixers are much worse than that. The Sixers are better than Brooklyn. Hey, you only host three podcasts a week.

Somehow you never told us the odds. I'm going to do four. It's plus 750. If you're going to do Cleveland at plus 900, the Sixers are much better. No, they're not. To me, yes, they are. They've been in the playoffs. All the guys you don't have any guys on the Cleveland that's been

really in the playoffs. We're done with James Harden. I'm going to give you one that's going to, you're going to laugh even harder than the house is Philly thing, but I love the odds. Atlanta is 32 to 1 to win the East. Oh God, shut up. Hold on. Let me make the case really quick. All right.

25 second case. 25 second case. Their five-man lineup when they play their best five guys is really good and successful. They're like plus 11, something like that good and successful. Like they're like 11, something like that. No,

no, they're plus 11 when they play their best five guys. I've noticed something where I've been watching them recently. Cause I was trying to figure out if there was a, they were trade team. It does feel like trays tweak the way he plays a little bit. So I guess you didn't watch him just lose the Charlotte. Well,

that other than that game. It seems like he's making an effort. I'm just making the case for 32 to 1. It just seems high to me because you figure they could get... This goes into my second one, which is Atlanta to win their division at plus 200. Because if you

win their division, you can't go lower than the 4 seed. So if they're 4 seed, now they're in the four or five. Let's say they play Philly. Oh, my God. Oh, look at this. They beat Philly again. Now they're in round two.

I don't know. It just feels like 32 to one. I'm not betting it just for the record, but I just thought those odds were too high. I'll give you another one since I gave you a long shot as one to take a flyer on. And that is you sent to us, you text us this morning, the six man of the year and it being overwhelming favorite Russell Westbrook.

He's minus 150. But second is Brogdon. Look, maybe FanDuel is unaware of the media's relationship with Russell Westbrook. But if they have the opportunity, if they look at a ballot and Boston ends up with the best record in the league, Malcolm Brogdon is going to get the most amount of votes for that, especially if it's like... He's plus 240 right now. I like this. I like what Verno's dropping here. And by the way, where's

my guy Tyus Jones on that? Guy's been unbelievable. Where is Tyus Jones? He's not even on the list. It's a disgrace. Mathurin's on there. Yeah, that's ridiculous. I also noticed with the most improved player, in a word I'll fully admit I don't totally

understand, but Markkinen was minus 140, and Shaq Gilgis-Alexander is plus with the most improved player in a word I would fully admit I don't totally understand. But Markkinen was minus 140, and Shea Gilgis-Alexander is plus 140. And congrats to Markkinen. He's having an awesome year. But Shea Gilgis-Alexander went from I'm not an all-star to I am now a franchise guy and one of the 10 best players in the league. Very similar to Ja last year.

So Ja won last year, right? He won that award, which I didn't understand because I thought he was awesome the year before. But I don't understand by the logic of last year, how is somebody voting for anyone over Shea Gilgis Alexander on that award? It doesn't make sense to me. It seems improbable. He's averaging 31 points a game and his team is 500. A team that house when we did over-unders with Brasillo, I think we all went under, and it was like 23? They're already over. They've already beaten us.

We're not at the all-star break yet. He has been an absolute revelation. I mean, he single-handedly beat the Wiz early in the season. Now, that's not really saying much, but it was a marvel to watch. No, he's just trying. His end-of-the-game stuff has been crazy. He's one of the best 10 players in the league. I agree.

Listen to this. His 30.7 points, 5.5 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks a game are matched only by Michael Jordan in 1987-88, also at the age of 24. Wow. I mean, that's what he's doing this year. The stats are a little drunk, but still, that's crazy.

And the other one for me that, just for player awards, is I actually was surprised Jokic was minus 110 and that he wasn't a prohibited favorite because I think they're going to be the one seed and I think he's going to win again. But more importantly, unless house is right about Philly going on this major run right now, I am beat at eight to one. I think it's pretty good odds, just good value because the way Philly, I was so impressed by

them on that road trip. And I always get shit that I never talk about Philly enough from my Philly fan friends in the pod. And even this week on Sunday get shit that I never talk about Philly enough from my Philly fan friends in the pod. And even this week on Sunday, we didn't really talk about the Eagles giants game that much. My Eagle fans friends were like, Oh yeah, you just gloss over your hero.

Danny dimes. I'm like, what are we going to talk about? They got their asses kicked, but I thought Philly showed a lot of character the last week and a half. They, they won over house. They made houses favorite future.

So Embiid at 8-1, I thought, was kind of decent odds. And then Sacramento's 42-1 to win the West. You did have a real dalliance with Danny Dibes. I mean, you fell head over heels. I fell hard. You did. Your team was bad.

I'm still in. I still think they should pay him. Sacramento 42-1. The only reason I mention it is if they made a trade. That's like, is there some huge trade on top of the team they have where they're a three seed, but they have some star that we don't know they're going to have yet

and you have them at 42-1. I think the only thing I honestly think the only thing that they are missing is rim protection. They need somebody to stop these teams. Bruno, you and KOC did this. The guy's name is Nick Adams.

He's the backup in Charlotte. He can't get any time. Nick Adams. I like Nick Adams. Look him up. I thought he was the fake conservative guy on Twitter. Isn't that what that guy's name is? Did I get the name right or did I get the name wrong? I'm pretty sure it's Nick Adams.

Check out Nick Adams. If that's his name. He's the backup in Charlotte. I'm telling you, check him out. KOC's life's mission is to find a landing spot for Mo Bamba. Oh, my God. He just needs Mo Bamba. Oh my God. He just needs Mo Bamba to end up somewhere. So I want to share something that I was doing in the behind the scenes while

we were talking this through. Cause Verno really convinced me with the Malcolm Brogdon thing and SGA. I mean, I'm with you guys, you know, that Fanda will let us parlay SGA to win most improved player and Malcolm Brogdon to win six man of the year. And do you know what that produces? What is it? Two leg parlay plus 716. I mean, you know,

that's pretty tasty. I'm not allowed to bet on any words. That's a pretty good one. I was, I did a thing. I am allowed to bet on this. Denver to play Cleveland in the finals, which would be a really weird finals Is 44-1 Oh, it would be a weird finals That would be a weird one I almost feel like they would throw their body in front of me Yeah, and I hate, I wish I could just get

Cleveland to be in the East finals Not necessarily to win it Yeah, but they should, maybe I'll talk to my FanDuel people about this We should be able to bet on the final four It should be the four teams with all different matchups and we should just be able to bet on that i agree that would be great which which give me like all these i'm gonna i'm gonna talk to them about that hold on i got an odds for you how what are the do you think he was being dramatic

or what are the true odds that simmons really gets rid of his Clipper tickets with Mike Tolan? Less than 10%. No, Tolan's going to take them over. Tolan will take them. I'm going to pass them on. You say there's less than a 10% chance that he actually gets rid of them. Actually, no. I'm out. The reason is because you can go to any game you want to go to.

When you're the podfather, if you want to go to a basketball game, go to the game. Also, in the last hour, you can just go buy tickets on seven different sites for half price. Exactly right. I don't even know what the point of season tickets is. So you can wait to find out who is playing. Yeah, same thing.

That's a great point. House, before we go, oh, what do you have for finals right now, just quickly? What do you have, Verna? If you had to pick a finals matchup, what is it? Odds aside. I think I would take a rematch, honestly. I know that sounds crazy. Wow.

That's so close to me. I'm saying Golden State-Milwaukee. I mean, I was just sitting here prepared to say it. It's so funny. I have Denver-Milwaukee. I've got to give the Warriors, until they lose, I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt. Until they lose, they deserve

the benefit of the doubt because they have not lost with a healthy Clay Curry-Draymond. They're the ones you have to beat to get there, in my opinion. They also are going to make a trade that's going to be really helpful to them. They have assets.

There's multiple guys out there that could swing that. You're right. If we were betting on a trade thing, they have the easiest way to just add somebody awesome. All right, House, you have 60 seconds and I'm going to time it. 60 seconds. I hope this is about ribs. 60-6-0

to explain to the Laker fans why they need to settle down about the trade that they made this week. 60 seconds. Rui Hachimura, he doesn't like to play basketball. You know how I know this? Ask him last year, will you come play basketball? He had some kind of issue going on. Nobody's been able to really sort it out.

The reason that Washington didn't offer him an extension is because he didn't want to play basketball. He is an every other night guy. Look at all the efficiency. They did a wonderful job. Now, you know, there's criticisms that will be fairly levied against the Washington front office, but they propped this dude up every first quarter that he said, Oh, I'm healthy. My hamstring doesn't hurt. My calf doesn't hurt. They would feed him the ball because they've been auditioning his ass for about 25 games now. They didn't make the wrong decision to not extend him. And if you're fine with a guy that will show up one every three nights,

Rui Hachimura is your guy. Now, if he's coming off the bench in a rotation as an eighth or ninth player, that's fine. He doesn't show up with consistent effort every night. And he doesn't show up like he wants to play basketball. That's all. There you go, Verno. Wow.

Does it show up all the time? LeBron's had a checkered history with guys who don't always like to show up. I would say that's because LeBron likes to play basketball and expects a certain level of competitiveness. And it's usually the competitive guys that resonate with LeBron. So I would just be careful. I don't know if, if I were them, I would have moved in on Jay Crowder because even though he's had a weird

year, we've still seen him, you know, but I don't know if there's some history with Jay Crowder and LeBron cause they played together that year and it was a little weird in Cleveland. Maybe they didn't want to go after him, but, uh, I find it hard to believe that's their big move.

KOC had this crazy one and obviously there was some kind of knowledge behind it. And it was about how Van Vliet just changed his, he just changed his agency and all this stuff and they're not going to bring it back. And basically, I mean, people can listen to the mismatch for all the details. He explains it all, but it was something like, I think it was Westbrook and the picks for Van Vliet and Trent. Wow. If I was a Laker fan, I'd be so mad if I was a Laker fan.

They're not winning the title with that. I think it's pretty good. Are you moving the Lakers in the finals with that trade? I mean, that would certainly make them much better. It's a pretty good trade. It's a fun trade. And they can knock down shots. Exactly.

Wait, you mean six man of the year, Russell Westbrook might be on the move? I just bet on him at minus 150. Oh, that's another. Let's get this parlay. I want this parlay. All right. I just bet on him at minus 150. Oh, that's another. Let's get this parlay. I want this parlay. All right. I have to go.

You guys have to go. Verno, it was a true pleasure. House, you're the greatest. I can't wait to see these ribs. In less than two months from now, we will be watching House absolutely stuff his face in Memphis. Get ready for us.

Good to see you guys. All right, we're taping this part of the podcast. It is 11 in the morning Pacific time. The Oscar nominations came out today. Wesley Morris and I circled this on the calendar a while ago. He's a two-time Pulitzer winner. He's an incredible movie thinker, and he was just as disappointed in the 2022 movies as I was. Top Gun got nominated. That was fun. I was excited about that. There were some good

performances nominated, but for the most part, looking at the list of movies and performances, what a weird year. Is this one of the weirdest years to you? Yeah. I think this year is the year that kind of proves that the movies have changed, right? I mean, this is a thing that has been happening for more than a decade now. But the movies are... They're not... The bigness of the movies is not really the story of the movies now. It really is sort of in some way about like niches for these movies, right?

Like every one of these movies has a constituency and the constituencies are driving, all quiet on the Western front. That's a constituency thing. And you can tell the story of that movies. What, how many nominations did it get? Seven.

Um, yeah, a lot. I mean, it, it, it, it is very well nominated and it's the best picture nominee.

It's a French movie. Um, you know, basically, you know, based on the novel. And I think it is proof, in many ways, this is kind of a good thing, right? The way that, on the one hand, I would put it that way. I'd put it on the one hand,

you look at the Best Picture nominees, you look at the people nominated for acting, although that's a different story than it has been in the past. There's just like the 10 best picture nominees. This is basically the result of the Academy's expansion, right? Like, I don't, I'm scared to know what 10 movies you'd have gotten before, you know, five years ago or six years ago

based on the movies we got this year. But I do think that I like the idea that the people, you know, the Oscars are important to me because it's the story of the people who make our movies, right? It's what the people who make our movies think good movies are.

But now there is this political valence to it that means, you know, the broadcast has to be kept in mind, the broadcast has to be kept in mind, the money has to be kept in mind, and all of the sort of identitological factors that go into the Academy's credibility have to be kept in mind. I'm not saying that to a voter, they're sitting there thinking, should art work that way, though?

Of course it shouldn't. But we're not taught, but we're talking about the Academy Awards, Bill. If you want to talk about what state the movies are in- I agree with everything you said, but then how does the woman king not get nominated? I would have thought like for wherever we are in 2023- That's a great question.

That's a lock. That checks all the boxes because that was a really successful movie with a great star that we both really like and like to see in movie screens. And then she doesn't get nominated and the movie doesn't get nominated. I love the woman King, but let's be honest about, I mean, here's the thing. Let's not be crazy about what the woman King is for as much as I enjoyed it. Um, the woman King is a Victor mature movie

with Viola Davis, right? It's a movie that was made, that could have been made every month in 1958, right? It's a sword and sandal movie. I mean, although I got, I did get, somebody did write to say that, you know, you can't officially be a sword and sandal movie because

for a variety of reasons. Anyway, it's basically what it is. It's a movie that never would have gone near the Oscars. Right. When those movies were things people were lining up to see. So the idea that it's not one of the 10 best picture nominees in movie historical terms makes all the sense in the world.

I was fine with that, though. I was really surprised by the Viola Davis and just her not getting it. And then this incredible story of Andrew Rysborough, this movie that I saw almost all the screeners. This wasn't even on the radar and it didn't even seem like this was a possibility until about two weeks ago.

And this was an old boys network, a bunch of celebrities throwing parties, trying to get her nominated, basically putting this tweet storm slash party storm out in the two weeks that led up to when they were doing the voting. And I don't know the rules. We never get to see how many first place votes somebody got. Maybe they'll eventually release that at some point.

But all of a sudden, she's in there in a movie that nobody has an opinion on. I think Fantasy might have seen it. He might be the only one I know. You saw it? I've seen it. Was it be the only one I know. You saw it? Was it Oscar worthy? She's great. Of course. Yes. I mean, look, I love Andrea Risborough.

I, you know, put her in almost everything. She was my favorite thing in Birdman. Anyway, the point is if this can happen, right, like where, I don't know who broke the story on these these parties for Andrea Riceboro. But Matt Bellany talked about that. He basically unwrapped the mystery of how this happened.

Who was the source behind it? It was the director's girlfriend, Mary McCormick. So, oh, OK. Interesting. Or director's wife, whatever she was. I fully expect this to be a thing that happens now, which is the opposite of the way the campaigns used to work, which is like they were, I mean, obviously there was a lot of glad handing happening

among Academy members for people who were potentially nominated or no, eligible for nomination. But this is more like, this is somehow like stranger and deeper but also kind of more moving than that like when her name popped up on screen i was like what it worked and i'm like who's not gonna get nominated but at that point you already knew because it was viola davis her name hadn't come up. And so, I don't know. I just find that fascinating.

So you're pro-Riceboro. You like this. I like the performance. I like the performance. I think it really is a good performance. But I think that the way that happened where, you know, I mean, the best actress category is notoriously full of performances like this. Jessica Lange won an Academy Award essentially with the two Leslie, right? Like Blue Sky is a movie nobody had seen. It was not a hit. I don't know how many theaters

that ultimately wound up opening in before she got an Academy Award nomination. But this is basically that. Except this year for women in movies was better than 1994 was, the year Jessica Lange, the year Blue Sky came out. So I was thinking like Still Alice with Julianne Moore when she won for that. That's another one, yep. But I do feel like people at least were aware of that movie. They did a good job with the screeners. I think

at least some people checked it out. This one came out of nowhere the last three weeks. You have to be a deep, deep, deep movie nerd if you saw this. Also, we're talking about Jessica Lange and Julianne Moore versus Andrea Risberg. Most people have seen Andrea Rosberg right like most people

don't even most people have seen most people have seen Andrea Rosberg in something um but they you know she's she's one of those um you know who's that actors right like like she's a that guy and um

I would think for me she's that lady from Birdman yeah I mean Everybody will have you know she did My favorite Black Mirror episode My best The best acted Black Mirror episode Stars Andrea Risborough

And for anybody who has not seen that It is the most stressful viewing experience Have you seen that one? No I'm just I mean my blood pressure Just went up thinking about it. But I think that there's so many things happening in this organization now. It's very, very big.

It's bigger than it's ever been. I think it's, you know, they're going to be at not ever be at 10,000 people soon if they aren't already. Well, let me throw some big questions at you and then we can talk about like all the, all the people that we have now that are in this and why some of this stuff happens. Like, so they made some of these changes. So Top Gun and Tom Cruise can be there in the first row with a movie that got nominated. Yes. So from that respect, that worked. I think one of the things that's interesting to me in 2022, just looking back at a year, is how many good directors made a movie and how few of them are in these nominations. Yep. Like just. Yep.

Directors that weren't nominated. David O. Russell, Jordan Peele, no bomb back. Olivia wild. Everybody was excited about. Luca Guadagnino.

He made that weird Chalamet movie. Chazelle. Like we actually had most of our good directors made a movie this year. And yet it's funny that Spielberg and Cameron were two of the, two of the people that had the biggest success, like two of our OGs, people that we probably thought maybe they were even long in the tooth. And then, uh, you know, we had, um, Martin McDonough, who, where'd you stand on the Banshees movie? Just out of curiosity. I really like it.

Okay. I'm not a Martin McDonough person, but this movie is so beautifully philosophical and it's so perfectly done. And I will say that of all of his movies, it's the one that is set where he's from, at least spiritually, right? I don't feel like anything is trying to be proven here. I think this is a movie about art and friendship and connection.

I also think it's secretly a gay movie, which is also kind of appealing in some ways to me. But I think it really is about these ideas of purity and the question the movie itself raises about the difference between whether you'd rather be remembered as nice or forgotten for being nice or remembered as being great, regardless of whether or not you were nice. I mean, it sounds obvious, but somehow in this movie, it's so deep. And there's something about Colin Farrell's determination to have his niceness be more important than Brendan Gleeson's belief in art, you know, making it irrelevant whether or not he's a good person or not.

It's really, really a great piece of writing. And the movie itself really got me. I really liked the location. Yeah. I just felt like I was on vacation for the two hours. It's really weird. It's a really unusual, memorable movie. Like I can't remember seeing a movie like that.

And I thought it was like for the arc of Colin Farrell's career. And just like whatever you think of how it went and how it should have gone. And you almost think of him like you would think like an athlete who had some issues and his career didn't turn out totally the way you would have thought.

He's really good at it. I think he's probably going to win best actor turn out totally the way he would have thought. He's really good at it. I think he's probably going to win Best Actor. He's the one I would bet on. Looking at these five people. Yeah. Like, Bill, only four of these 20 people have been nominated for Oscars before. I thought that was incredible. I mean, I don't know if my math is right, but I counted four previous nominees and that's it. So,

I thought that, to me, felt like an Oscar movie. Old school, middle school, new school, whatever you want to call it. And then Tar. In the old days, it would have been one of the five nominees, the Banshees of Indusheron, for sure. And then Tar. Which, I'm not going to say I want to watch Tar

ten times, but god damn I respected the hell out of it. And I thought that to me, that was the way to put it. That was the performance of the year. I thought that was when we do like best of the decade kind of shit, Blanchette's going to be in there. And I also thought big picture just for her as an actress and just to think of it like in a sports way, really like taking the torch officially

as probably the best actress of the last 20, 25 years. Wherever you want to say Streep starts tailing off a little bit and who's next, I just think it's her. And I think there were a lot of candidates for that spot and a lot of people who kind of put the crown on for two seconds. But if you go back to her with Talented Mr. Ripley, that era, like, you know, mid-late 90s, all the way through, she's had the best 25 years of anybody. Oh, yeah.

I mean, she's in that class of people with Gwyneth Paltrow, Penelope Cruz, Marion Cotillard, Angelina Jolie. I mean, she's in a great class of young actors in 1999 and 1998. And think how some of those people went sideways, right? Angelina Jolie's celebrity overtook her career and she was never able to recover from it. Gwyneth Paltrow, who's one of your favorites,

you wrote a great piece about her once and we talked about it once on a rewatchable. It's like all the tools just kind of veered the wrong way, but still had like an incredible amount of talent. Cate Blanchett always just, just kind of kept cruising along. She's two Oscars already. This is going to be the third,

like she's definitely winning. And this was the best one. I don't know. I think Michelle Yeoh. Oh, come on. Michelle Yeoh could win. Come on.

I mean, because, well, listen, I think that, first of all, I think she's good in the movie. I think that there is, you know, you got to think about who the Academy is now, too. You know, I mean, it is a very international group of people. And I think that Michelle Yeoh is one of the biggest stars on earth, you know, historically speaking. That's true.

And she is the sentimental, I mean, every, most years as a person who you're just like, I love this person too much to not vote for them. They're too important. So you think it's one of those, it's like a career vote almost and Blanchett already has her too? I'm not going to say this is scent of a woman because I also think that she's just very good in the movie, but it's that flavor of contest where you have this, you've got a

different kind of veteran than Cate Blanchett. You've definitely got, you know, she's older than Cate Blanchett and you know, there are millions and millions and millions of people for whom Michelle Yeoh is like, you know, there are millions and millions and millions of people for whom Michelle Yeoh is like, you know, really important. They're like the number one top movie star. I know some people who the first hour of tar kind of threw them off and they just didn't

like it that much because they didn't really fully, especially like people watching at home. I thought, I thought it was an incredible achievement. As I said, I would have wanted to watch it 10 times, but I thought what she did in that movie was like an old school, A plus, holy shit, I will remember this 20 years from now kind of performance. And I don't know.

I just, I don't know how that doesn't win, but you're right. It might not. She might not. I mean, I don't know how that doesn't win, but you're right. It might not. She might not. I mean, but to like, you know, just thinking about how these things work, thinking about who, what the Academy is, who's in it,

the fact that she has two Oscars already. I mean, I just feel like, you know, it would not surprise me if Michelle Yeoh won. Like, I mean, I'd be happy if Michelle Yeoh won. I, again, like, I think that there's a way that she operates in this movie. She's very funny in everything, everywhere, all at once.

I think the way she uses her body and her face, which her classic movies don't really care that much about because so much of it is body work. I don't know. I have some questions about

the movie. It really gets home by the end. But I think that in terms of the surprise of it, I mean, a movie like that versus Tar, where Tar is like a straight ahead

kind of existential like with this little tiny frisson of like surrealism or magic realism. I don't know what that little stretch when she goes into the building to find the girl is about. Um, although I will tell you between this and Top Gun, I am sick of the, it was all a dream. That's it. You're done these films. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm like, it was all a dream that's it you're done these films yeah yeah i'm like it's not a

dream no well the thing with tar and this is one of the reasons we penciled this and we want to talk about it tar was about something and you texted this to me and we were talking about why we were so disappointed with all these movies and just where we are with movies and heading into 2023, the next 11 months. And I like that Tar was about something that is in the culture and in the air right now in a real way. And in the old days, the movies I grew up with, whatever was going on in the world, always ended up in movies in some way. And people trying to take like, oh, this is happening

and I'll do a movie about this. And it wasn't literal. It wasn't just social media. It wasn't just me texting you. I like this. I don't like this. This sucks. This is great. But somebody taking something that was out there, flipping it, doing a story about it. And then as you're watching this perfectly crafted story, it's actually about this whole other thing. And to me, watching Tar, it, the fundamental question of it is like, this person's truly great and they're a bad person. How do we reconcile this? What do you do with greatness after you've been shunned because of your behavior, which is the thing we've been talking about for the last six years. And I thought it really said something and meant something. And I thought the performance

meant something. And I don't, maybe I'm, maybe I'm too optimistic, but I just don't know why we can't have four or five of these every year. I don't, well, I mean, interestingly, I'm trying to do some math on the 10 movies. I think this movie, in a sharing, in its way, it's got the war in the background, and these questions about art and goodness and purity and authenticity. Women Talking, which is a movie I can't believe works, but it really works. Did you watch it?

I did. I thought that movie was so smart and had such a difficult thing to do, which was be very obvious about, it can't hide from its subject matter because its subject matter is basically the impetus of the conversations that these women are having about what to do in the wake of them all being assaulted

as part of this community that they're in. women are having about what to do in the wake of them all being assaulted, um, as part of this, this community that they're in. Um, I just, that movie really got me. There are a couple of speeches that Judith Ivy has where I just, I just sat in the theater and did everything I could to stop myself from

crying. Um, I think those three movies. That came out, it came out the same year as she said, right. Which is like the worst version of those kinds of movies where it's just, you know,

it was basically like spotlight after a head injury. Um, and it was tough to watch. It just wasn't good. It felt like a lifetime movie. So that, that was why I thought it was important that woman talking, that it was like,

this is how you do this. This is how you do it. Um, I, and I also think that you know one of the things that that i'm sort of wondering about with respect to where the movies are especially once you look at these nominations is all those great directors that you were that you listed off earlier. Most of those movies, and if you can include Sam Mendes in this, a lot of those movies are about the past. They're about movie making in the past. They're about these bygone eras of American life

that don't really attempt to address what it's like to live now. Or it's more or their alternate universe movies that aren't the universe we're in now. Right. Right. And I think that there is this uncertainty about what to do with the moment that we're in. And I think it makes something like what Todd Field is doing in Tar all the more admirable

for its going in there and just trying to figure something out for itself. This is a man with clearly some axes to grind. Like the end of that movie, that movie is initially about a woman,

about a situation that many people conversationally have found themselves in, or if you're in a certain, about a situation that many people conversationally have found themselves in, or if you're in a certain, you know, sort of social situation. And, you know, there is a kind of what would you do if dot, dot, dot. Like, what would you do if this happened to you? The turn the movie takes in the,

you know the moment the movie takes the turn when she goes and does the thing at the concert it turns real mean in a way that says to me that the person who made it, Todd Field has some acts to grind with not just where we are right now but the way we are talking about

where we are it's really fascinating the other thing I really liked about it we are right now, but the way we are talking about where we are. It's really fascinating. The other thing I really liked about it, not to spend the whole time talking about Tarver, is it's just not self-conscious at all. No! And I think a lot of these movies the last couple years have just felt really self-conscious to me.

Just like, they've already predetermined what the reaction is going to be with this. I thought that was one of the interesting things about Top Gun. Top Gun's like, you know what? Just come to the movies. Have a good time with us for two hours. This is Tom Cruise.

He might be 85 years old. He might be 40. It doesn't even matter anymore. He's kind of timeless. He might've been CGI'd and replaced. He might be an alien. We don't know. We don't know. Come hang out with Tom Cruise and his

new cast of People in Miles Towers. It's going to kind of look like Anthony Edwards. Ben and I watched this. Ben loves 80 movies, my son. And one movie that's not streaming anywhere is The Sure Thing with John Cusack. It was rough. Whoa, it's not? It's not streaming anywhere. Found it on YouTube and we watched it on YouTube. And I was thinking like, even this movie, I'm not sure they make now, where it's like,

he's going 3,000 miles. Maybe this is why it's not on streaming. Maybe Rob Reiner's embarrassed about it, but he's driving 3,000 miles. There are so many other things Rob Reiner should be embarrassed about. It's very true.

You're going to start there? Yeah, true. Maybe North start with. But in the movie, for people listening, John Cusack is in college and he goes 3,000 miles because his friend from high school has this girl who they go to college with who's a short thing. He's like, come here. You'll definitely have sex. And he's going cross country with Daphne Zuniga's character who's going to see her boyfriend

and it ends up being like a road trip slash two people fall in love. It was really good. Yeah. But I don't think they're going to make that movie now and it's not even that controversial. It's like, who cares? No.

It just made me think like everything is so self-conscious now that we're not even making movies like that as much well think about all of the movies that we've been getting about people we already know right like i mean i'm sure that when you and sean fantasy and i have talked about this stuff before i've probably complained about the my least favorite genre in movies, which is the biography. I don't like them. I feel like for actors, they're terrible, especially with actors you know, right? Because then you've got these conflicting,

these high-pressure systems of stardom where everything you know about this one person is sort of like retrofitted to fit a mold that we all understand to be this other person. Yeah. And sometimes that can be interesting. But most of the time I feel like it's easy and it's safe and there's no real risk involved because you don't have to invent anything truly new.

And I'm not saying that every, every biopic performance is inherently not interesting. Um, but I do think that it doesn't give an actor to me. It doesn't give an actor a lot of organic room to do something that they don't normally do, especially now. Cause they're doing an SNL performance. They're impersonating somebody.

There's another piece of it though. And I think the same thing's happening with documentaries because it's really bothering me with documentaries, especially as somebody who's made almost a hundred of them at this point. Documentaries are moving into this weird territory that I think biopics have already moved into. And it's the same thing that is the

difference if you read a book, if you read a biography versus an autobiography. If I read an autobiography, if I'm reading Spare from the reprehensible Prince Harry, I'm just reading his take on the events, right? There's no journalism in it. There's no checks and balances. It's just like, here are my takes. And he can do whatever he wants with it. And as I'm reading it, I know it's an autobiography and I'm taking everything with an entire salt shaker, right? Biopics have started to turn into that. Documentaries have 100% turned into that. We see most of the time, if somebody's going to sit down for an interview or somebody's going to be involved with a project, it's really hard to do it unless they're like an EP or unless they get to look at a cut.

We dealt with this with Music Box, with a couple of the ones that we did. Artists, celebrities, whoever, are rarely going to turn over the IP to somebody else and be like, you know what? I'm happy to help with an interview. You take it wherever you want to go. And we're seeing this happen now

with something like this Elvis movie where the Elvis estate was involved, right? So it's like, well, what's the movie? Colonel Tom Parker. He ruined Elvis. None of this was Elvis' fault. They're not going to spend time in an Elvis movie talking about that Elvis was a fucking druggie for like seven, eight years, right?

That he could barely function by the time he died. The fact that he died when he was 42, which is four years older than LeBron James, they're going to just make Colonel Parker the bad guy and do this really weird version of an Elvis biopic that makes him sympathetic.

And I think that's one of the reasons I'm so bored by biopics. Who's going to do the biopic that's actually, you know, like even like the Tina Turner movie with that Angela Bassamade, that was really good with Ike biopic that's actually, you know, like even like the Tina Turner movie with that Angela Bass made. That was really good with Ike. And it's like, Ike's a fucking villain in that movie.

And Fishburne was amazing in that. Would they even make that movie anymore? No, no, they wouldn't. I think because, I mean, it's interesting that you bring up what's Love Got To Do With It because that is a movie that is about two people's perspective on a relationship in some way i mean obviously it's based on tina's book i don't know if she was explicitly involved but i mean it was adapted from my tina the book she wrote with kurt loder um but i think that you know what you have there is a clash between two people in a way and it's not meant to i mean i think that movie is really interested in being entertaining before it was interested in being right right you know um whereas

you watch something like even a movie i like like king richard right that movie wasn't about what a complex and difficult person Richard Williams is. It's really about what it, what he and Oracene Williams did to get

the, the family, what he and Oracene did to get that family to some different station in life. And as you know,

I love that movie, but the Williams sisters were also executive producers, right? Right. Exactly. So you, you, you know going in, all right, this is going to be slanted a certain way. And I was fine with it.

I loved King Richard. As did I. And I think that in these movies, you know, the thing about the biopic, and I don't know how much time we really want to spend talking about these movies, but I think the great innovation of them was basically, what's his face writing so many of them? Who's the guy who wrote The Queen? Peter Morgan.

I think the Peter Morganization of this idea is really interesting to me because he's focusing on moments as opposed to an entire life. I think that the liberties he takes, and I know that there's a lot of controversy with the crown um and the way he's handled you know the royal family yeah he has a point of view and it is expressed in these films and i kind of like that way of thinking about how to approach these movies but again i don't need more of them and you know unless you really have something to say in which I will see them in which case I will see the movie and determine for myself but to stick with Elvis for a second the Elvis problem I had aside from the fact that it is completely

delusional about you know you have B.B. King literally saying to Elvis go on and steal my music I don't care the people are going to love it and I just feel like what saying to Elvis, go on and steal my music. I don't care. The people are going to love it. And I just feel like what Austin Butler is doing in that

film is confusing to me because I don't know who Austin Butler is. I know who he is as a tabloid person. But I don't know who this person is going to be going forward. Is he going to make more movies? What's he going to do? How's it going to go? I don't know who this person is going to be going forward. Is he going to make more movies? What's he going to do? How's it going to go?

I don't know. But, you know, I feel like he's sort of, I don't know what he does after this. I'm curious because the movies are different now. He won't, this won't be, obviously isn't a thing that he didn't make two other movies last year. And this was the one that like, this was his Academy Awards movie. This is going to be... You know what's interesting about Elvis? So did you kind of not like it?

Did you sort of like it or did you like it? I think Elvis had one great idea, which is the sex, right? The idea that anytime this guy got on stage and moved his body, the way Baz Luhrmann arranged the response to Austin Butler's Elvis moving his body, the way Baz Luhrmann arranged the response to Austin Butler's Elvis moving his body is the single best idea anybody had in a movie

for a movie last year. I didn't like the whole movie. I thought a lot of it, it was, you know, it's classic Luhrmann bloat. But that one idea, as cinematically expressed by Baz Luhrmann was so good

that I felt like they should have just done that for two and a half hours because it was exciting but anytime he wasn't moving or he wasn't in front of a microphone the movie was dead I really respected that specific part of it I'm glad you pointed it out

I don't like his movies but I really respect them specific part of it. I'm glad you pointed it out. I don't like his movies, but I really respect them. I'm glad he exists. I just don't personally like the movies. I thought it was interesting. My friend Lasker, who's a talent agent,

he was saying the reason he thought Elvis had this moment, because I was like stunned that it got nominated for Best Picture. I was like, you gotta be fucking kidding me. That was one of the 10 best movies. But it was a huge hit. It made a lot of money.

Okay, so why was it a huge hit? And his take was that the over 60 audience, they all saw it and they all liked it because they were there for Elvis. And people like my daughter who also liked it, they liked it because Austin Butler. So it had just two camps, right? Over 60 people

and basically girls 22 and under who just liked Austin Butler. And Austin Butler is like a big star to a certain demo. And I think that's why I made it, but that one didn't make sense to me. And then the other one that didn't make sense to me, I was stunned by this, was not only that Anada Armas was nominated, but that it was always like she was penciled in in pen like two months ago. And it was like, that's one of the worst movies I've seen in the last five years. I thought it was awful.

It's not entertaining. There's nothing good about it. I wouldn't recommend it to one person I know. I fucking hated it. I wouldn't subject anybody to that movie. So how does somebody get nominated for a movie that's that bad? I mean, here's an important thing to just remember.

And this is to rope in what happened to Viola Davis and what happened to Andrea Risborough. Which is the actors nominate the actors. Each branch in the Academy nominates its own group. Cinematographers nominate cinematographers.

Editors do editors. Costume designers do costume designers. And actors do actors. I wonder if this was not, like, sympathy for the combat pay that that woman probably earned making this movie. You're probably right.

No, that's a good theory. I think there's a way in which the suffering that is evident in this performance, it's not a performance of suffering. It seems to me to be suffering during performance. All right, so let's go backwards and let's give Meryl Hemingway the best actress for Star 80. There's so many people. Plenty of actors and actresses who've suffered through a two-hour movie. Yeah.

Oh, my God. Yeah, you're right. I mean, there's so many people who could get... But I think, though, this is what I'm saying about the changes in the way that the Academy is thinking about its role. I'm not even... It could just be that the actors branch, there are enough actors in the actors branch that just loved this performance and thought it was great.

The movie's unwatchable. How could anybody even survive two and a half hours of it? It's fucking unwatchable. I'm with you. I don't, it was brutal for me to sit through. Wait, a couple more movie questions. Yeah, yeah. What happened to Nope?

What happened to Jordan Peele? That's a great question. I'm not going to be watching this movie 20 times over the next 10 years, but there's another one where I really respected it. So we had some movies that are like, man, I really respect that movie

and then that got nominated and rewarded. And then did it come out too early? What happened? I don't think it came out too early. I think that people, they think Jordan Peele is a weirdo. I don't think that they get Jordan Peele, honestly. I truly don't. I think that they think that, I don't know what they think, honestly. I think that the movie was, I mean, it's a divisive movie for people who really wanted to try to understand what it was about, right? I think I've had a lot of conversations, I don't know if you have, about people who were trying to interpret it and it didn't make any sense and why were the following 15 things happening and I didn't care, the alien looked like,

I don't even understand why did the alien look like that? What was the ending about? Why are we spending all this time with the horses? You know, what was, is the surveillance stuff? Does that make any sense to me? What was all the stuff with Steven? When? I don't get it. It doesn't make any sense. I quit. I give up. I feel like there's so much happening in this movie. It is um it is not frivolous but i i think that i think there's a way in which there's a kind of fun popcorn movie that the academy really doesn't need to bother with if it didn't make as much money as top gun if top gun had made 190 million dollars in the at the North American box office, we wouldn't be talking,

it wouldn't be at the Academy Awards. It just wouldn't be. And I think that, you know, Well, but wait, on Top Gun though? Yeah. People just loved it. And at some point, at some point that matters.

Like I know a shitload of people saw Avatar, right? I had so many more Top Gun conversations than Avatar conversations. People went, they were like, whoa, that was cool. It was kind of a thing.

You just had to be in the theater and then leave the theater and turn to the person you saw the movie with. And yeah, that was cool. Whereas Top Gun, people were like, did you see Top Gun yet? Holy shit. I'm going again. People are going like two, yeah, that was cool. Whereas Top Gun, people were like, did you see Top Gun yet? Holy shit.

I'm going again. People are going like two, three, four times and there just hadn't been a movie like that in so long. I think that's what it was though, right? I mean, that's the nostalgia part of that phenomenon because it is so rarely given to us in that way. It was the perfect storm of

nostalgia timing, right? It came out at the beginning of what we all spiritually understand as summer movie season, right? I think it opened on Memorial Day weekend. And it had Tom Cruise, a person who, no matter how much shit we want to talk about this person, he means something to us. And he means something to us in a very limited way now, right? He can't play anybody other than now, you know, Maverick. He can only play Tom Cruise.

Yeah, right. Well, he can't even play Tom Cruise anymore. He has to play Tom Cruise playing these other two guys. But those two guys are the same guy. What are you talking about? Maverick and Ethan Hunter are the same guy. How are they different? Give me two ways those two guys are the same guy What are you talking about? Maverick and Ethan Hunt are the same guy How are they different?

Give me two ways those two guys are different I watch Top Gun next to two 10 year olds Who don't know who Ethan Hunt is at all But they know who Maverick is now And they probably will not want to see Mission Impossible Everybody else will go But those two kids are going to be like I don't know, I just want to watch Top Gun again

But you're right, I think that there was a way in which that movie meant something to people in a way that just did not for a lot of folks. And I do think I really think that people were just polarized by it. They didn't get it. And they think Jordan Peele's weird. I thought Top Gun

was going to win the Oscar. Ooh. And the more I look at it, this is Jimmy and Sal and I. We're going to bet on it. Ooh. And the more I look at it, this is Jimmy and Sal and I, we're going to bet on it. We're waiting. I think the odds are like almost 10 to one at this point. The more I look at this

and the more I kind of read the room, and I'm not ready to make an official pick yet. I might make it like a week from now. It feels like it's going to be the Fablemans. Mm-hmm. That's fair. It feels like it's going to be Spielberg's, you know, this is 50 years of Spielberg.

The fact that Judd Hirsch got nominated to me was like a red flag. A red flag for it getting nominated or for it winning the best Oscar. I was like, all right, if he's getting nominated, this movie actually has a chance and should be considered the favorite. I think it should be considered the favorite. I think everything, everywhere, all right, if he's getting nominated, this movie actually has a chance and should be considered the favorite. I think it should be considered the favorite.

I think everything, everywhere, all at once is going to win. Oh, really? A hundred percent. Yes. I think the thing about the Fablemans is, you know, Steven Spielberg suffers from Steven Spielberg syndrome, right? Like everybody is so familiar with Steven Spielberg. They think that they're always going to get another chance to give him more. And so let's not give it to him now.

And, you know, I actually think West Side Story, I couldn't believe that movie. I loved it. I thought it was great. It was, there are two sequences. I mean, this is a guy who however old he is, what is he, 75 now? 72, 73?

He's mid-70s. This is a guy who is still enjoying making movies. There are shots in the Fablements that he's never done before. I was talking to my friend Eric Hines about this a couple weeks ago. And, you know, I was telling him that he was asking me, you know me if I were making a list,

which I didn't make this year, what I would put on it. And I didn't really have very good answers because I don't like being put on the spot that way. So he was telling me what he loved. And he got to the Fablemans and I was surprised that he chose the Fablemans. And not because it was bad, just because was like maybe his second or second or third or first favorite movie from last year and we had this conversation about what was so exciting about that movie which is that this is a guy even if you didn't if you if you told me that damien chazelle made the fablemans i would i would have believed you i would have believed that that a you know a 38 39 year old man had made that movie, not however

old Steven Spielberg is. There's a passion there. There is a kind of, I mean, admitted old-fashionedness, but it is a movie of very interesting ideas. It is a director reckoning with who he is as a person that he never really wanted to deal with, I think, a younger person but at this age you know thinking about mortality and what his legacy is and where he came from there's some deep shit in this movie and just the idea that michelle williams is basically playing every single woman in every single Steven Spielberg movie is just it's just really beautiful I was psyched that she became leading actress instead of supporting actress because as you

know I hate when they cheat with that category and she's in pretty much the entire movie I don't know how you could say she was a supporting actress that would have been stupid I liked it and by the way if you know And I don't know how you could say she was a supporting actress. That would have been stupid. Yeah. I liked it. And by the way, if you, now,

Gold Derby is the one that has the odds, who knows. But they have Fablemans at 15 to 2, and they have everything everywhere all at once at 13 to 2. And Banshees is 15 to 2, and Top Gun is 17 to 2. And I think those are the four. There might be, I could see an all quiet on the Western front kind of mild push at some point just for, cause you know, the whole war movie thing. But, um, we didn't talk about that. We didn't, I didn't like the whale. Oh no, no, no, no, we're not doing, I don't understand the whale.

What is there to understand? It's like everyone decided before anyone saw it hey this is an oscar movie brendan fray and then it's i i just thought it was not good but isn't this what the whole problem is bill that the you know that is a movie that is essentially engineer for the thing that wound up happening to it right which is that you know it is officially a genre oscar oscar movie is a genre now regardless of what the people who make it intend if you put that shit out between september and december i don't care what you tell me yeah somebody wanted to win an oscar jordan peele i mean he's not thinking about the academy awards and i think in weird way, it kind of works against you, right? Like, if you aren't trying to play, and I'm not saying this to a voter, but I think systemically,

I think that a movie like The Whale, there's precedent for this movie. You've seen this movie a thousand times, whether it was on, you know made for tv movie of the week which i think this kind of is or you know kind of like writ large you know any movie about an issue that that you know where a main character is trying to overcome some psychological or physical hurdle um i just don't the thing about this movie is i don't know if what bugged you about it was the tone of it the way everybody talked to each other it's fucking depressing and not fun to watch

and I didn't like being in that world I don't know there's nothing and you know I don't know if you know this about me Bill I'm the biggest Hong Chao fan I love Hong Chao love her as the day is long she was the best thing in the had a great she was the best

thing in the menu to me she was the woman who like brought everybody yeah i mean anyway i love hong chow i did not even like hong chow in this movie i i just it did not it was the tone it was so absurdic and so mean and i didn't believe the setup between the kid and the and the guy the kid who kept coming back to the house and then when he turns his camera on i won't even it just it's so hoary and so unoriginal it is like watching somebody beg to be taken seriously in a completely different way um which i mean in this person in this case, it's Darren Aronofsky. I don't know. You know, this is a guy with a sensibility,

made some interesting movies, great eye. I don't know. Nothing about this makes sense for the way he thinks about, you know, how movies should work. I just think it was one of many really weird movies by good directors, which is one of the legacies of 2022, like Babylon, which I thought was insufferable. But that whole party scene that goes on for like 10 minutes. Yeah, that 10 minute party scene near the top, which is just like completely insane.

It was actually kind of fun to watch, but I don't, that movie didn't really seem to have a point of view or a reason to exist other than he just wanted to try some cool stuff and work with some cool actors. But I have no idea why that movie was made or what the point was. I find it really, I mean, I'm just going to say this again. I feel like if Spielberg had made Babylon, nobody would have batted an eyelash.

That is an old man's movie. And weirdly eyelash. That is an old man's movie. And weirdly, Fableman's is a young man's movie. So Fableman's versus everything everywhere all at once. You think it's those two. So Top Gun's not going to win Best Oscar. I was so fired up for Cruise. No. I mean, the prize is that it made $2 billion or whatever.

That's the prize. You know how these things work. I will say, I mean, the prize is that it made $2 billion or whatever. That's the prize. You know how these things work. I will say, I, you know, I love screeners. I love watching all these movies. My two favorite scenes of the year were both in Top Gun. What are the two scenes? When, when Goose's son starts playing great balls of fire and Cruz is gets, is about to leave the bar and then has, makes the Tom Cruise face and then has the flashbacks. It's fucking emotional. And then the Val Kilmer scene is like one of the great six

minutes of the decade so far. Oh my God. That seems unbelievable. In the theater, people were having, everybody was choked up. And then the real life stuff that bled into that and how Val Comer's life turned out and the stuff. I just thought, man, that was like why I go to the movies for shit like that. I thought it was so good. I love the crash landing, landing in the restaurant, which seemed like Mayberry. I love that.

Where the kid is like, you know, he's like, where am I? And the kid's like, Earth. I love that. I thought the director had a chance for best director. Yeah, but not. I know he wasn't going to get it, but who knows? But anybody could have made that movie. It was well made, but like, I don't know.

I mean, I think that where we are right now is in some, there's some massive gulf between the auteurs, the people who, you know know you can watch a movie and know that it was made by them Robin Ruben Oslund is one of those people he's nominated for best director for um Triangle of Sadness um

which is another movie that is you know we can put that in with Tar and Women Talking and I like that movie I mean that is a movie that is very much about trying to be where we are right now. Another divisive movie. Apparently, not as divisive as Nope, but the people who like it really, really love it.

I would go right now. These are not my official picks. Fableman's, Blanchett. Colin Farrell, who's almost 4-1 odds on Gold Derby. I think Colin Farrell's going to win. I do not see Brendan Fraser winning. I do.

I don't know enough about the supporting actress. I haven't studied the supporting actress. Angela Bassett. Angela Bassett. She burns that movie down. Well, that would be great, but that seems too good to be true. But everybody loves her. She'll get the standing ovation. It'll be amazing. Angela Bassett. Angela Bassett. Angela Bassett. She burns that movie down. Well, that would be great, but that seems too good to be true. But everybody loves her.

She'll get the standing ovation. It'll be amazing. Angela Bassett. Brendan Gleeson's going to win Best Supporting Actor. He's almost four to one odds. Yeah, that seems likely. He's, I thought,

I really liked the first 20 minutes of that movie too. Where you're just kind of like, wait, what's going on on why won't he talk to this guy and then it's like I feel so bad for Colin Farrell he's lost his friend it was just such a good setup and then director

it could be our guy Steve it's probably going to be Spielberg which means that everything everywhere all at once will probably win best picture or they'll split it it'll probably be a split you know Which means that everything, everything, everything, everywhere, all at once will probably win Best Picture. Or they'll split it. It'll probably be a split. You know, it's, you know, we're, I don't think we're, I think there'll be more splits going forward, I think, than not.

Parasite, you know, I think Parasite, what we did, did Nomadland win? I know, I know she won Best Director. I can't remember if it won Best Picture. I can't remember. Other stuff went together. That's where we, that's where we are now. I do. I can't remember if it won Best Picture. I can't remember. Other stuff blends together. That's where we are now. I don't know. It's just a weird, it's a really weird time.

And I think that, you know, as far as important as the Oscars are, I think the thing that they, they keep Hollywood, they have to keep Hollywood honest because at some point, they're going to run out of movies.

I swear to God. I mean, this year even it didn't come close to that, but it did feel like, I mean, there were some snubs, but really, I mean, making it 10 movies really means that. I think it should be eight. Ten's too many. I know. And but wait, before we go, I just want to mention. Yeah. I really liked Emily the Criminal. And I'm not always an Aubrey Plaza fan, but I thought she was really good in that movie. And it's weird to me that that movie was never even mentioned in any of this stuff.

But then the Andrew Rysborough movie was the weird indie. Because I thought the stuff Emily the Criminal was about and just, I didn't know where it was going. And I just really, I really liked it. I thought it was good. And I thought she was really, really good in it. I think she needs to make more famous friends. Yeah, well, that's one of our lessons.

Make more famous friends. Make more famous friends. For more on the Oscars, Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins, I think they just put up their reactions to nominations. That's on the big picture. I cannot wait to listen to that. So you can get that.

And then the big picture will be covering this. And then Wesley, you'll come back before the Oscars. And we'll try to make some picks really quick and do some other stuff. Sure. Good to see you. Nice to see you. Thanks for coming on.

All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Verno and House. Thanks to Wesley. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing, as always. And I will see you on this feed on Thursday for round three, Million Dollar Picks and a lot more football. I don't have feelings with him

on the wayside on the wayside never I don't have feelings