The Bill Simmons Podcast - The Unlucky Warriors, Harden’s Next Move and the Semi-Resurgent Pats With Kevin O’Connor and Nora Princiotti

Episode Date: November 20, 2020

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Kevin O'Connor to discuss Klay Thompson's season-ending injury, an open NBA investigation involving the Bucks-Kings trade, Gordon Hayward opting out of his contract with the Celtics, post–NBA draft thoughts, Harden trade rumors, and more. (2:00). Then Bill talks with Nora Princiotti about salvaging this Patriots season, Tua Tagovailoa, the superb coaching of Miami head coach Brian Flores, Coach of the Year candidates, and more (56:00) before Bill gives out his Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 11 (1:15:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

here's what I have for you. NBA hot stove talk. Do they have hot stoves for the NBA or is it just baseball? Did we ever figure that out? Yeah, that's happening. Million dollar picks as well. This episode is brought to you by

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We've been percolating on it all day. Felt like it was coming last night, but Klay Thompson out for the year, torn Achilles. I think probably has the highest approval rating of any NBA player. I always love the concept of approval rating. Every basketball fan loves Klay Thompson. Honestly, if you were, I don't know, hanging out and somebody was like, I fucking hate Klay Thompson,

you'd be like, what? Yeah, I wouldn't like that person. Yeah, no, just instinctively be like, you're a bad, evil human being. Why would you think that? This is a really bad injury when you combine it with the torn ACL in the other leg. And I just feel like I hate to be such a pessimist, but it's really hard for me to believe he's going to be the same after this. You know, I think he's going to be able to come back and be an amazing shooter. No doubt about that.

Still going to be able to attack closeouts and score at the rim. But defensively? Defensively, it's... I'm not so sure that's ever going to be the same. And I know Woj reported there's confidence he could get back by the nature of the tier. I mean, you hear that about guys who get hurt all the time. That's always the report right afterwards that they'll be able to get back. And with Klay, the defensive aspect is the concern also with KD coming back.

I think KD is going to be able to still be a dominant offensive force. But what will he look like on defense? And it's going to be the same question with Klay. And I thought Golden State was going to be right back in it as a championship contender this year. And now that Klay's out, and now that we don't know what he's going to look like when he gets back, if you're Golden State,

that window very possibly might have closed. It may be just closed entirely. And they made the move for Kelly Oubre, but that doesn't move the needle. And it shows you, I say this all the time, and I'm tired of saying it, but it just shows you, you got to respect the window. Not that the Warriors didn't, but man,

you just never know. You know, the Warriors were riding high there from 2013 through with KD going down in 2019. And you just need a lot of luck with this stuff. You need injury luck. I think that's one of the things that's made LeBron's career so astounding. And a lot of it is self-induced, right?

He takes care of his body better than anyone in the history of the league. In the history of humanity? Maybe in the history of humanity. But there is no LeBron season where you can look back and say, man, if LeBron hadn't been hurt that year or, oh, when LeBron broke this or LeBron season where you can look back and say, man, if LeBron hadn't been hurt that year, or, oh, when LeBron broke this or LeBron tore that,

he's been completely indestructible. The only injury luck he's ever had has been with like Dwayne Wade's knee in one of the Miami finals, or like when Kevin Love got hurt, when Kyrie had his knee issue. It's always been other guys. It's really hard to stay healthy. And I look at that, that five year stretch that they basically had starting when you, when you,

yeah, I guess you could start it in 2014, but really 15 and you go 15, 16, 17, 18, 19. And they're playing a hundred game seasons,

five straight years. The wear and tear from that. Oh yeah. Um, we saw it with Durant. He broke down. He was only part of four of those years, you know,

first one with OKC and then three straight at the words and then clay. And it's like, maybe, maybe we're asking too much with, with the workload of some of this stuff. And it makes you rethink, are the seasons too long? Um,

if it's a bad thing for a contender to, to compete like that for five straight years, and we just have these examples over and over again, the guys just break down at the end of them. Maybe we're not doing this right. Yeah. And you know, not even just guys that suffer major injury, but somebody like Draymond Green, he's fallen off. He's not anywhere near the same caliber defensive player that he was during that, those amazing finals runs for Golden State. And there's a big question of whether he'll ever be able to get close to back to that and they need him to get back to that in order to have a shot in the finals to be able to stop an anthony davis who he did a pretty good job at in the past can you still still do that now

not so sure and i'm sure a lot of that is a byproduct of those long finals runs year in year out, which, you know, as you said earlier, it makes it all the more amazing that LeBron James has been able to do what he's done despite making the finals seemingly every year of his career. Because partly because he learned how to treat the regular season in a

certain way. Right. But I mean, I look at the Celtics in the mid eighties bird and McHale and parish. None of them were ever the same after the four years where they're just playing a hundred games every year. And then you go to the Pistons, Isaiah just completely breaks down right at the end of that.

So does Lambert, the Bulls. MJ was smart enough to take a little sabbatical right in the middle of there for a year and a half and at least like get his legs back somewhat. The Lakers in 04 they just that goes right off the cliff and shack is you know really never as dominant as he was ever going to be after 03 04 had some good years but not the same yeah not the same yeah at the same level you look at the suns and oh those nash teams and maybe they didn't play the same level of games but i

just think it's really hard to have runs for more than four or five years. And then to also check all the injury boxes. I'm bummed because I thought that we're seeing was going to be able to piece it together as a contender. I don't know if they were going to beat the Lakers, but the Steph clay thing, I think they were going to get some stuff out of Wiggins.

I think Weissman was going to really be 25 minutes of just around the rim stuff. I think a lot of energy. Yeah. And he may be Pasco could have been a ninth man. I think they would have found a vet guy and I took them seriously as did you. I, to me, it was Lakers, Denver, and then probably Golden State third. And, uh, it's a bummer and I love Clay Thompson. So yeah, I got nothing else to say.

It sucks. He, he's a, he's a bummer and I love Clay Thompson. So yeah, I got nothing else to say. It sucks. He, he's a, he's a basketball junkie. I interviewed him back in 2018 for a story on the ringer. And you know, when, when he first came and walked over to me, he was clearly tired after practice,

just exhausted. Yeah. It seemed like he didn't want to be there. I was thinking to myself like, Oh, this is going to be a bad interview. Pulled out my laptop to watch film with him. And he's,

and he's like, Oh, what are we doing? I'm like, Oh, just going to pull up some video of you. He's like, oh, video. We watched video together. He perked right up. Super excited to watch film.

He explained in total detail of what he was doing in the court and the things that he did to train to do that. He's a basketball junkie. And I love him as a player and i feel bad for him as a person that after fighting back after the 20s he'll now has to deal with this to get back again on the court i'm sure i can't imagine you know how crushing this is for him to go through that knowing how much this dude just loves loves loves basketball and everything that comes with it as a pro beloved teammate and i've done podcasts with Durant, with Curry, with Draymond, and with Steve Kerr.

And at some point in all of those podcasts, Clay came up and they would light up every time and they would have to tell some Clay story. Like really like the most beloved guy around a franchise. So hopefully it comes back. All right, we're gonna take a quick break then talk about the rest of this stuff. This episode is brought to you by Movember.

The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health,

suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. We were waiting and waiting because I wanted to put a topper before million dollar picks with NBA stuff, figuring there was going to be stuff happening during the day. And we waited, we waited. We're like, well, I'll do it at four. No, I'll do it. Nothing's happened. And now Mark Stein reported that the league is investigating this King's bucks aborted sign and trade that

has turned into a complete fiasco and has led them to say, hey, wait a second, free agency is coming. Can you guys not do these deals, especially with restricted free agents before free agency actually starts? Now, Bogdanovich has a team. He is not going to the Bucks. He's going elsewhere. But are we going to be delayed here for 24 hours? What's your take? I think we're going to get some type of delay with Bog What's your, what's your take? Um, you know, I think we're going to get some type of delay with Bogdanovich. And like you said, it won't be the bucks. I'm not sure who it'll be. And you know, it's a shame for him that this happened the way it did and that that deal blew up for however it did with, you know, some sort of leak or whatever,

because that was spreading like wildfire that night. Everybody was talking about it. Is it a shame? Is it a shame? I mean, it's a shame for him. For him as a person, I think it's a shame. For everybody else involved, I mean, not really. But is it a shame for him, or did they tell him he'd make a certain amount of money, and then there was another team

that said, hey, we'll actually give you this amount of money, and his agents were like, hey, wait a second. He can make more money over there. My understanding is originally the concept of the sign and trade between the Bucks and the Kings, which was just a concept discussed, would have involved Bledsoe,

which would have allowed Bogdanovich to get more money, more comparable to what he would have received from had he stayed with the Kings or had he signed, let's say, the Hawks. But instead, once they traded Bledsoe and once they also traded first round draft picks, suddenly they weren't able to be able to give as much money. And that deal blew up before there was actually some sort of an agreement with the player and the Kings. So something happened here with somebody jumping the gun, probably one of the teams, and it just blew up in their face. The Kings are always the number one draft pick for if there's going to be some sort of fiasco involving an aborted trade or some sort of rule interpretation that got screwed up, I would say the Kings

are the number one draft pick, right? Who would you have over them? Anybody? I mean, the Kings are number one. You know, historically, they also have a brand new front office there, too, with, you know, Monte McNair from Houston. And I love the draft that they had. They had a very smart draft.

They really did. So, you know, maybe things are changing there in Sacramento. And maybe it was Milwaukee that kind of jumped the gun here and was super excited with their big day and the possibility of being able to get Giannis a sign on that dotted line for a big extension could have been the bucks here too yeah have you heard anything about that like any rumblings of how this happened like why did this happen where I think from I think there was a bait and switch at some point and at some point Bogdanovich wasn't making as much money as maybe the people who were facilitating

the deal for him thought he was going to make. And you also have a couple teams that have cap space, which leads us to the Gordon Hayward piece of this, but we know Atlanta is aggressive and wants a wing. I think they're a candidate. We know the Knicks are aggressive and they want a wing. I think they're a candidate. Charlotte has

some money to spend, depending on how chicanerous they can get. Other teams can renounce guys, things like that. But the reality is there's no wings in this market. You look at free agents, you look at a team like Dallas. Dallas has the full mid-level exception. Dallas is, both of us think a real contender, still maybe one deal away, at least from really seriously us thinking they're 23 to one on FanDuel, which we were both looking at today. Those are great odds, Bill.

Well, you see like, you're like, oh, cool. They'll get a wing. They'll get somebody awesome. And then you look at the wings and there's nobody awesome. And probably the best guy is Jay Crowder by default. How about, I mean, does Joe Harris count as a wing? Are you considering him like just a, you know, a guard? I just think he's going to go for more than the mid-level. Oh yeah. He'll go for more than the mid-level. And what's interesting is the Nets trading for Landry Shaman. Is that an indicator that perhaps they're a little bit worried Joe Harris might be out of our price range here it's just not going to be worth keeping him because all along i even reported a couple weeks back that seemed like he was going to go back to brooklyn all indications were but then they trained for shannon either they wanted another guy who can handle the rock and defend

and you know shoot for you or this is kind of joe harris insurance for them that he could go somewhere else because he's a good player and he can help a lot of teams. Yeah. But if he thinks he can get 15, 16 million from somebody in the open market, now again, there's not that many teams with the cap space,

but the Hayward thing has been bizarre the last couple of days. And I think it's pretty clear. As you know, one of my theories with this stuff is nobody opts out of a contract in basketball, unless they have another contract waiting. Even when you see somebody like Jemichael Green,

who's like, yeah, 5 million. I'm going to opt out of that one. It's like, Oh, Jemichael, somebody is going to pay Jemichael Green,

who apparently didn't watch him try to guard Nicola Jokic in the playoffs. The, the Hayward thing, he's walking away from 34 million. And initially when we were thinking about this and talking about it, you think like, oh, well, maybe he could get four years 80 from somebody, something like that. And you're taking a pay cut in that first year, but you'll make it up after. I actually think teams are so desperate for wings that that number

is in the high 20s. And I think for the Celtics to keep them, it would have been the high 20s. I think for a team like the Knicks, we know the Knicks. I've known for... I thought everyone knew the Knicks wanted Hayward, but now everybody knows. Yeah, the Knicks were in on that. Sounded like Hornets too. Pacers possibly. So we're looking at minimum, if it's

a four-year deal, it's going to be probably $100 million for four. If it's a three-year deal, it's going to be probably $100 million for four. If it's a three-year deal, maybe it's something like $80 to $85 range for three. Something like what the Celtics offered Horford last year. Is he worth that? The numbers you're

throwing out there, is he worth that for those teams? Like a Pacers, like a Hornets, like the Knicks. Is he worth it for those teams? I do not think he's worth it for the Celtics as anything other than an asset that's protected that you're either

getting what he gives you or you can flip it eventually. That's a lot of money, especially with the way revenue is going and the fact that they had to cheat to even keep the cap where it is. I think you and I are probably at the highest end of an opinion on this since we watched a shitload of Hayward.

You could talk yourself into any situation, right? You could talk yourself into, hey, go back and watch the first five weeks of games last season. That guy was awesome. He was a borderline all-star and that's what you're paying for. And yeah, that guy's worth 27 million or is it the guy who just seems snake bit with injuries and um who i thought really slipped defensively especially in the bubble now he was playing on a bad wheel for at least some of that but i thought he was a better defender in utah than he's been in boston um he was a fourth option

the most i mean yeah that that and really drawing fouls getting to the rim though he had let us improved yeah exactly and i think he's gotten a little bit better this past season but he's still not quite the same guy that we saw and i wonder how much of that though is the fact that in utah he did did have rudy gobert often as the guy screening for him or as somebody who was a constant lob threat on those drives to the rim defense has had to respect that and maybe that influenced his ability to get to the basket as well as our perception of his ability to get to the basket he never had that in boston but i would i would imagine that's part of the equation for him there's there was a recklessness that he had in utah in a good way and that's best. Athleticism that's never really come back

since the injury. And by the way, that makes total sense. After you have an injury like that, you're never going to be fully reckless. I think the bummer for me is I felt like he had kind of gotten 90, 95% back there those first five weeks. And then he broke his hand

and it just never came back. And then the bubble, he got hurt in five minutes. And, you know, you go back, go, I would encourage people to go on YouTube and watch some of the Utah stuff with him. Like he, he played like a super physical above the rim kind of athlete sometimes he was six, eight, and he would go dunk on people and bounce off people. And it was almost more like a football player. I remember on the ringer that year i i believe justin barrier gave an article i wrote about uh hayward the

headline gordon hayward is a superstar hiding in plain sight and it was all about him ahead of his free agency that year as just this dude who was a respected player but it was really somebody that like just you know nba nerds who would watch league pass knew how good he was and it was just kind of like detailing his game and all about that it did touch on exactly what you just said his ability to get to the basket and you know like i said the gobert aspect i'm sure did help him out but the rock the recklessness and the the real just uh determination to get there regardless of who was in front of him that's not there quite as much anymore and i I'm sure that's partially a mental thing,

worrying about getting hurt, because it's not just the major injury he had in Cleveland that opening night. It's everything else that's followed for him. And I'm sure that always plays a part. Paul George got over it. Yeah. So I think with Hayward,

it was like every time he'd get momentum, he'd get hurting. And I think, you know, look, I don't think he was that happy in Boston as a fourth option. That guy's never been a fourth option his whole life. And he's a fourth option going forward. He just is. Brown and Tatum and Kemba are always going

to be above him in the pecking order. Unless he goes somewhere like Indiana. Then maybe he's, you know, long-term if they add more guys or two. Well, the Knicks would be another one. I think there's a few teams where he could be a first or second option which is probably what he wants and the thing i'd worry about for him like let's say you're gordon hayward and you sign with let's just say the knicks if they have an opportunity to sign a a big name star at some point and that star wants

a different player with him hayward's probably that salary they're including in a trade to get that guy you know like He could sign in a place, but there's no guarantee he ends up staying there because he's just not that level of guy anymore where you're like, he's a keeper. Yeah. And yet there's this 25% chance in the right situation.

You could totally see the comeback season where he's like a 47, 40, 88 kind of percentage splits guy and like 19 a game and stuff like that. He, he, he's the, one of the things I did like about him and he's a frustrating player for a lot of reasons, but he really could fit in with whoever was on the court and, um, didn't necessarily need the ball to have an impact. I keep thinking about Indiana and what I've heard is the same way you've probably heard. And again, like by the time people hear this, you might've already decided, but basically the

feedback was he hasn't decided. He knew he wanted to opt out and he's thinking about what he wants to do and he's going to enjoy free agency. So there's sign and trade stuff that they could have. I still think Indiana makes the most sense for a million different reasons. With them, they have Oladipo as an expiring, Miles Turner, who's been in every trade piece for a million years. And initially it was like, oh, it'll be Hayward for Turner. But if Hayward's salary now has drifted into the mid to high 20s for that first year, it can't be Turner. So it would have to be like Turner and Doug McDermott, something like that for Hayward. But the thing is, if they wanted to start a contract with him at like 30, let's say they said, Hey, we'll do three for 90 sign and trade.

And now maybe Oladipo comes back. And I mentioned that to you, we were texting about it. We're like Oladipo is the stealth kind of classic weirdo Danny Ainge move where you're like, Oladipo? They're getting him for a year? Why are they doing that? And then you start talking yourself into it. It's like, oh, he could be a six man. He's Kemba insurance.

Maybe he's an asset. They could flip him. Maybe you end up keeping him. And then you could get even more ambitious and go, what if it was Turner and Oladipo and it was Hayward and all of a sudden you could start building this mega trade for it. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do like the fit with him in Indiana. And you think about him, Brogdon, Sabonis, the holidays, like these are guys that know how to like play basketball and move around and move that ball.

TJ Warren's kind of the only kind of new school score type of just give me the ball, get out of my way guy. But do you like that fit with him in Indiana? Yeah, I like the fit. And if you're Indiana, I would love to be able to give up Oladipo in that deal considering he wants out and that he'd probably leave after the season anyway. And also you don't know what he's going to be like. He didn't look like the same after he came back this season, didn't have the same explosiveness or burst. He just wasn't the same guy, which sucks.

When, when before that injury was one of the funnest players in the league. And you know, if you're in the end, or maybe it's time to pull the plug on that. My question would be is if you're Boston, do you want Fractola Depot here on the one year rental? See how it goes.

Or do you rather have miles Turner at at 18 million dollars annually for three more years turner a good player not a great player he has his issues on defense against those bigs that you would like for him to actually be effective against a joelle and bead bullies him really bodies him around and if you have miles turner and you're paying him 18 million dollars and he doesn't get that done he's not worth it and. And he hasn't been worth it for Indiana in that sense. And then you're stuck with it. It's a tradable contract. We just saw Al Horford get dumped.

But they had traded a first-round pick with him. They did. There's two more years after this year for Turner. Here's the key thing for me if I'm in the Celtics. First of all, not getting anything for Hayward, him going to the Knicks is a catastrophe for them because now they're just losing the assetics. First of all, not getting anything for Hayward. Him going to the Knicks is a catastrophe for them

because now they're just losing the asset outright. If they can get somebody back who either A, can play for them or B, is a tradable contract, the thing that this roster

has been missing for three years is that guy in the 17-22 range who anytime some superstar becomes available, now you can just start throwing picks and money and whatever else you need with that one anchor. And, you know, it's like what Dallas has with Tim Hardaway Jr. this year. They're going to be able to, if they want to take that contract, give some sort of future something. It's harder for them to trade their picks because they already have two going, but they'll be able to do something. Maybe it's one of the guys they

just drafted and try to go after some sort of bigger gun. It's not impossible. The Celtics haven't had that opportunity really for two, three years. Not that I'm complaining. It's been a good run, but it's kind of weird how they don't have any of those salaries in the middle, except for Marcus Smart at 12 million, but they don't have any of those salaries in the middle, except for Marcus Smart at $12 million. But they don't have anybody in that $12 plus to $20 million range, which is really the sweet spot for a lot of those deals that you're talking about. So Turner or Oladipo. Oladipo makes, I believe, $20 million this coming season. Turner at $18 million. So either of those guys could work and fit that profile.

If you're Boston, you do have to have that enter the equation but i i think i lean a little bit towards turner get him into a new situation and maybe something clicks for him he's still talented he's a big who can shoot threes who can protect the rim he might not be great on the post against anid, but he's pretty good against almost every other matchup. So like it might only hurt you against Philly. And in that situation, maybe you change your defense, defensive philosophy, what you're going to do. Maybe you double more often to account for that. And maybe it's okay. And that's what's going to make Philly tougher this year is they have more shooters around Embiid. But we're getting ahead with talking playoff matchups. But for Boston,

I'd lean Turner because with Oladipo, I do fear after that major knee injury that he's just not going to be able to get back. Right. I'm with you. I think Boston was too small last year. It almost got them in Toronto. It ended up, it did get them in Miami,

even though Miami wasn't exactly a gigantic team either. But you just look at where the league is now. You've got to get through Jokic, Embiid, Davis, and LeBron. Those are three teams that are probably going to be there at some point if you're trying to, I guess, Denver or Los Angeles. But I don't think it's realistic to win a title with a small ball lineup anymore. I think you can do it in certain situations, but Tice is is the reliance on Tice, the foul trouble, the fact that he could get just kind of overwhelmed sometimes because he's not a gigantic guy. And if Embiid is motivated this year, they're just going to need another big body. Cantor opted back

in by the way, for 5 million, which I think actually it helps them, but it also kind of hurts them because, um, it just pushes their luxury tax bill higher and higher. And if they had re-signed Hayward, they would have gotten crushed on luxury tax this year. I think they're willing to do it by all accounts. Cantor is a guy that you could flip, though. Seems like it. You could use him in a trade, potentially. So it could work out in the end.

But it's hard to know what's going to happen there with Hayward. My hunch is that he wants Indiana. I've been told that's his preference. But ultimately, it doesn't mean he's going to get what he wants here. Because Boston and Indiana would have to agree to something for that to happen. Or Indiana's going to have to clean salary out. And that's unrealistic. That's not a path for him to get there either.

I'm not at the point of the drive him to the airport point that I was with Kyrie. This is more like I'd actually probably get him a gift. I'd probably give him a hug, thank him for everything. Just to be, Hey, man, I don't know what happened. This one was just snake bit from the first game. Um, I wish you the best man. But at the same time, like as my buddy Hench was like, I don't know if I could have watched him short arm, another layup in a big playoff game. I'm like, yeah, you're kind of, I'm, yeah, you're kind of right. I wish him luck, you know, wherever he goes next.

He's going to get paid. A lot of these wings are going to get paid. Have you heard people tell you what Davis Bertons and Danilo Gallinari could get paid? I've heard high teens possibly for either. Possibly even 20 for Gallinari. There's not a lot of money out there. There's six teams with cap space.

Not a lot of money, and yet there's going to be a lot of guys getting paid. One name I wanted to bring up to you, Chris. I said Chris Vernon. I'm like your girlfriend, but you're not with your wife, Chris. One name I wanted to bring up was Christian Wood. The Pistons, you know, drafting a big man at number 16. Wood, I think, is one of those guys who's an underrated free agent. What do you think about him, you know,

for maybe the mid-level or a little bit more than that for certain teams? Because, you know, to me, like you mentioned, Turner and the appeal for Boston, if he's a mid-level guy, and he might get more than that, but if he's mid-level, to me like you mentioned turner and the appeal for boston if he's a mid level guy and he might get more than that but if he's mid-level to me if i'm boston that's somebody i'd want to go after too maybe instead of a trade even i'm not sure boston wants to add more players like even they they opted in on semi-ocial later they just have a lot of dudes i i don't think they they if anything they need less players they need to make like a two for one,

three for one, something like that. You know? And that's why you think like, if it was Hayward with Robert Williams and two more guys, and you get like Turner and old Depot back or, you know, those kinds of things,

like a four for two. I mean, I'd like it for the Knicks, the Knicks too. Like, I wonder how much of this is going to be, you know, like free agent musical chairs. If

Hayward chooses Indiana, does that mean New York turns their attention to some of those other guys like a Christian Wood? Because they'll have more cap space available. There's not a lot of teams with cap. Not a lot of teams that can offer big money. If the Knicks were smart, they would be doing what Presti is doing. Presti is like,

I am your way station. Send your contracts here and give me a pick and I will hold on to them. I've been saying this forever. I've been waiting for teams to do this. Presti's really going to do it. He's going to be like,

for two years, I will be your way station for the Al Horford contracts and I'll send the Kelly Uber your way or whatever. Can I read you something my dad texted me last night? Yes. tracks and I'll send the Kelly Uber at your way or whatever. And, um, can I read you something? My dad texted me last night.

Yes. We were both kind of stunned by Aaron Neesmith. Um, I kind of started to talk myself into it when I saw the interview with him and the highlights and it's like, well, maybe his foot will heal. It got to that stage pretty quickly for me. My dad texted me after Danny Ainge interview.

Can't believe he felt us. He's the guy he wanted. We wanted all along, had him in the top five on our draft board. We were afraid someone ahead of us would take him. And I was like, wow, that was, I totally believe Danny Ainge said that. It was my dad just making up a Danny Ainge quote. That's how long Danny Ainge has been in our life as a GM. My dad perfectly captured something Danny H. would have said, and I actually believed it, that they had Neesmith

in the top five. But it does seem like he's going to play, though. Hopefully he was 14th on their board. Yeah, seriously. We're going to take a break and come back and talk about

two more things. At Pennzoil, we have one job. Pioneering a motor oil so advanced, talk about two more things. So we've had 24 hours thinking of this draft and what we thought of it. And you and me and Russell and Raja did a whole thing about it. I've been looking at this Halliburton thing, trying to figure out what the fuck happened. It does seem like he iced out some teams that he didn't want to go to in that top 10.

That one seems like it happened. This was a kid who was pretty confident, who looked at the dartboard and said, I think Sacramento and a couple other ones like New Orleans. He kind of wanted to go a little bit later. He didn't care about sacrificing a couple million bucks, basically. The more I think about it, I feel even more strongly about what I said last night. I don't know if Jalen Smith's going to be how good he's going to be. And I'm sure he makes sense for Phoenix in whatever way. I think it's criminal

that they took him at 10 instead of A, Halliburton, or B, just get the Celtics to flip picks or whoever, do the Dallas trade or whatever. Dallas is offering 18 and 31 and second round pick and money and everything. I just don't think that pick was worth it at 10. I think they should have taken Halliburton. And you look at Booker, Chris Paul, Halliburton, and Halliburton's ability to play a little bit off the ball too, and his IQ and just putting him with Chris Paul. It's such an amazing combination.

Ironically, in the late nineties, they had Kevin Johnson, Steve Nash, and Jason Kidd on the same team. And Nash has been pretty open about how it was the most amazing experience of his career. He was basically going to getting his master's on how to play point guard with those guys for 50 games. I think that was a huge, huge, huge mistake. Wait, 24 hours later, what are your thoughts on just that move? I mean, the more you hear about the potential teams that we're offering to get to 10 or 11 or 12 for Halliburton, the more I do think Phoenix made a mistake in not shutting down.

Do I think Jalen Smith was necessarily the wrong pick? No. For the same reasons we talked about with Ryan and Raja, I think he replaces Aaron Baines for you, the shooting ability, the energy he brings. I think he's going to be a solid NBA player, potentially a really, really good NBA player. And that makes sense. However, you probably could have gotten him at 14. You probably could have gotten him even at 18.

You know, I mean, he was a guy who was projected on some people's boards and people I talked around the league is possibly going into the 20s and taking him at 10. That's a spot where some people thought maybe precious or truer would go there was a lot of lottery hype for him and for phoenix they there may have been a missed opportunity there to get more assets out of fear that somebody else would take their guy and i do wonder maybe they could have been right because of number 16 the pistons did take isaiah stewart there trading with the rockets to get that pick maybe they would have selected him at that point of the draft but other than that every other team that drafted after them san antonio wouldn't have

done it sacramento i don't think so new orleans i'm pretty sure was locked into carol lewis 14 boston maybe they were the team that moved up. They could have gone there. New Orleans definitely was. New Orleans was celebrating the Kira Lewis pick on the Warham. That's the thing to me. For sure. And I think Phoenix's front office is pretty inexperienced.

You've got to read the room at that point. It's like, who's after us? San Antonio. They're not taking him. You knew them taking Devin Vassell. It's like, yeah, you knew that was happening. You know, they're taking him or the other wing. By the way, he's another guy that I think Phoenix should have taken.

I wouldn't have taken Jalen Smith. I'm fine with the pick Devin Pacelle or Tyrese Halliburton to me were the guys I should have picked. And with Halliburton, I kind of get it. You know, you just traded for Chris Paul. You get Devin Booker. You don't want many two ball handlers there. It would have been nice to have him.

But the way they're building their team is by having a bunch of wings that surround Aiton and Al Smith and then the guards, Booker and Chris Paul. Bunch of switchable players. Adding Tyrese Halliburton. But here's the thing, KOC. Chris Paul's going to be 36. He's going to be playing for 12 more years. And you have this next guy who could take over for him. And that's why I would have taken Halliburton or West Smith.

But I don't blame them for the logic there. I don't think it was an awful pick. I knocked them hard for their pick of Cam Johnson last year. I thought it was a dumb pick. And I was proven wrong about that. Cam Johnson's been a pretty good... Yeah, I mean, maybe they could have gotten him later too. And maybe that's what we're going to look back at with Phoenix here.

We might look at Cam Johnson. We might look at Jalen Smith and say, hey, they're solid players, but they should have traded down. Look at what else they could have done. I find it hard to believe that Boston wouldn't have given 14, 26, and 30 for number 10. Yeah, wouldn't shock me. And whether they would have taken Halliburton or Vassell, I don't know.

But they were clearly, as always with the Celtics with these picks, they were two picks too late. And they never want to trade up and do the thing. But anyway, I thought that was one that stuck with me. And then I started thinking about Halliburton and Fox and whether they can play together. Yeah, just like, all right, could they play together? I went back, watched some more Hallibbert and YouTube clips and that kind of stuff.

He definitely can play off the ball and play with people. And this is a two ball handler league now anyway. So, you know, the thing with them, if they can get Bagley unleashed at all and keep them on the floor and keep them healthy, I think Halbert and could have a dramatic impact on them.

And the other piece for them is it does open the door for them to shop De'Aaron Fox at one point. If Halliburton's like, awesome, and you're just like, wow, this is an embarrassment of riches. Let's shop Fox for a wing. And you look around at, I actually trade machined it today, trying to figure out like, all right, let's say they just love Halliburton and like, you know what? We could probably trade De'Aaron Fox.

It's actually harder to find a match than you would think because so many teams have good point guards or are committed to whoever they have that the right kind of trade, he's still on a cheap salary. And by the way, aggregators, I'm not saying the Kings are trading De'Aaron Fox. I was just like, I'm curious.

You're speaking hypothetically, down the line. I'm talking hypothetically, just dream trade get a box. I was just like, I'm curious. You're speaking hypothetically down the line. I'm talking hypothetically, just dream trade. If you could flip him into a wing, who would it be? And I couldn't find the wing. Well, what you're saying is let's say Halliburton is like the leading rookie of

the year candidate. He's awesome. You know, far. Let's say he's incredible. Yeah. We're all like, Oh my God,

you're talking, you're talking combining Harrison Barnes with the Aaron Fox to get a star. That's what you're talking about. Like that type of scenario. Or even a couple of years from now after Fox resigns and maybe, you know, things change, the landscape changes and a star becomes available. And suddenly in this alternate universe, the Kings are a destination. Right.

You never know. That time could come. Or like even just Fox on somebody who's making 7 million a year like let's say Jalen Brown in 2017 to some awesome wing who's making like 7 million a year who hasn't even hit his first rookie big contract and you're like let's flip our awesome point guard for this

awesome wing and then put him with Halburn so I don't know I just think it gives them to me they're the big winners of the draft to get that guy at 12 is ridiculous. And then they got Robert Woodard in the second round, my 20th ranked prospect. They got him in the forties.

To me, Woodard is one of the more underrated guys in this year's draft class, like six, eight, six, seven with a, with a man's body, long arms,

just a really, really versatile defender and a great kid can hit spot up threes for you. Another guy that makes sense to have around those two guards that are going to be handling the ball a lot. The Kings, they came out really well on the draft. And Bejelica, they got him too still. They were at least smart enough not to trade him. All the nerds loved him.

Beelica, whatever you say. Bejelica? What did I call him? I don't know. Beelica? Beelica. Beelica. Bialica. Bialica. But yeah, I think, you know, it's the first time if you're a Kings fan that maybe you're willing to look past the Luka Doncic thing and try to move forward. Almost like a horrible accident.

Like in a movie, like when there's a horrible accident and the character is just trying to regroup and rebuild their life and then at the end you can't look past from that bill that's part of your identity you're never gonna get you're never gonna get past it but at least now maybe there's daylight and you can move toward this universe where it's like as luca wins five mvps you can be like well at least we got the halbert andton worked out. You know what would be great someday? The Kings-Mavericks playoff series. Oh, man. Wouldn't that be, huh? Luka versus Fox. We had those when you were a little kid.

Yeah, we did. There were some good ones in the 0-2 and 0-3. They had some good battles. They're very hazy in my memory. I can't really remember too much there. But I do know of them in NBA history. Halliburton, I really like that one. And I know

Killian Hayes was your dude, but if I'm Detroit, that'll be a bad one if Halliburton turns out to be this kick-ass guy. Maybe we'll look back years from now and say what a smart decision it was. Yeah, with Hayes, right? Today, everybody's saying, wow, they passed on

Halliburton. Halliburton is clearly more of a sure thing. He's going to be able to come in right away and contribute and make a positive impact as a rookie. But Hayes long-term, to me, is going to be the best player in the draft. The other one I was thinking was Charlotte with this Lomelo thing. I just think there's an incredibly high bust potential here. The interviews were bad. You're planting your flag with LMelo could be a bust.

Oh, yeah. For a couple reasons. This is a bad draft. And as a couple people said to me who work for teams, it's tough to criticize LaMelo. If this was a normal draft, he would have been the eighth or ninth pick. People talked about how great his passing is.

That's great. Nobody, he, I, nobody loves passing more than me, but as we talked about last night on the, uh, on the post show, we did when Bill has said that thing about, he's not a good shooter and he doesn't play defense and he's got to work on those two things. And those two defaults scare me. Um, and in general, like, I just think there's more to basketball than this guy looks good if he was a video game character. And I have a lot of questions about the potential that people seem to see when they look at him on YouTube versus all the things that it takes to become a really good NBA player. The support system you'd have in Charlotte, which has not had

over the past 20 years, really any track record of developing a really raw young player like that. Just point me to the one player that they've developed. The guy doesn't exist. Um, and I think a lot of pressure too. And he's a guy that's going to look really bad some nights, right? You're going to be watching them on league pass against whoever Miami, and he's going to have eight turnovers in 25 minutes. And people are going to be watching him on league pass against whoever, Miami, and he's going to have eight turnovers in 25 minutes. And people are going to be like, wow, this guy sucks. How does he handle that when that happens for the first time? So I don't know.

I think there, I hope I'm wrong because it would be fun to have a really good passer, but I really think there is high bus potential with this. You know, I appreciated Jay Bill as being honest about that on the broadcast with some of the shortcomings in his game, you know, with, you know, the fact he doesn't have a jumper yet with the fact he doesn't play defense because it's true. You know, those are areas that he needs to improve. And with Lomelo, you're betting that the passing as an elite skill and it is an elite skill. The passing is something that he all his other skills continue to grow towards as he matures. He's never really been coached. Everything's been built around him everywhere he's been, whether it's Lithuania or Australia, or whether it was, you know, playing in Chino Hills when he was even younger, it's always been built around him. And now he's being fed into a situation where he's going to have to do things that he hasn't been asked to do consistently before. And hopefully Borrego, Charlotte's head coach, is able to put that pressure on him and get that out of him.

Because, you know, the people, it's hard to get good intel on him in terms of like people really understanding him as a person. And I've had a handful of good conversations about him and people say he's a good kid. You know, his teammates do seem to like him and enjoy being around him. And I'm not insinuating otherwise. I just think he's like a quiet, introverted kid. Yeah, yeah.

And I'm just saying that because, you know, with him, maybe being in the NBA is something that could promote that growth and maturity on the court. I don't know if we're going to see that happen. He's got to go a long way. I mean, just put on the highlights of him and see him taking pull-up floaters from the

elbow instead of attacking the lane when he has an opportunity to maybe put his body into a guy, lean his elbow in and draw contact. There's so many technical things he doesn't do that he's going to have to do in order to be a great player. Right now, I see potential for him to be like the 40th best player in the league. But if he keeps adding more and more to his game, I'll feel better about what he can be with his upside. That's why I didn't have him ranked number one. I had him three, which is still high, but behind Anthony Edwards and behind Killian Hayes.

And with Edwards, did you see in Charks' story today that he reported that Minnesota said he's grown. He's now 6'6", 230 pounds with a 6'10 wing swing. So he's grown an inch since he was last measured. And one inch isn't going to change the equation dramatically. But we are talking about a young kid who apparently is still growing and obviously has a lot of skill, enough to go number one. That's intriguing to me. Well, the other thing with Edwards, and I mean, God knows we all had more than enough time to read about all these dudes. The football background from him, I don't

really remember another prospect like that who was incredible at another sport and then belatedly was like, yeah, I think I'm going to focus on basketball and then became as good immediately as he did. That is pretty unusual. Usually you see somebody playing football and basketball same time at a high level, things like that. But in this case, by all accounts, it was like he was going to be a football player. And then there was a switch. And that was some of the stuff when people were nitpicking him

that they were like, he plays like a guy who hasn't had a lot of the same just years after years of reps. I think I was thinking about why Golden State was so quiet about who they're going to take. And then afterwards, like, oh, it was going to be Wiseman the whole time, which I had actually was pretty confident in. But I wonder like if they wanted Minnesota to take Edwards because they knew how raw he is. They have their pick next year, top three protected. And as I said last night, when we did our show I actually thought the smarter move for them would have been to take Wiseman

and just seeing what Towns and Wiseman look just I just want to see it it's not like Wiseman is going to be playing 40 minutes a game next year anyway but see it it gives you Towns protection

in case anything weird happens with Towns you don't have to play them together all the time you know you you can only you can play them together six minutes a half and just split play them together all the time you know you you could only play them together six minutes a half and just split it the rest of the time but i think they were pretty happy

that minnesota took a project like edwards personally i think i think it worked out for both i think both teams took the guys they should have taken with minnesota i'm also intrigued by the idea of them had they taken wiseman and having two bigs because those guys you know theoretically could work together Towns is like a wing you know or even like a card with the way he plays on the perimeter and shoots threes I mean I feel like if Minnesota is ever good people are going to appreciate how talented he is offensively yeah defensively I'm not so sure that would ever work and for Minnesota I'm sure that front office looked down that path and was like there's a limited upside here and at some point even if it's fun and exciting and a nice young team, at some point it would come to a point where you got two guys that are bigs making over $20 million, taking up a lot of your cap.

And there's limited upside because of the inability of either Towns or of Wiseman to defend on the perimeter. Whereas Edwards, he has his concerns with the decision-making, with the inconsistencies on defense, with the shooting ability, and so on and so forth. But he's also 6'6", with a 6'10 wingspan, and is the type of guy who can get to the basket and draw fouls for you, who can still create off the dribble. And that complements Russell a lot better, as well as Towns, because now you're adding a potentially versatile wing. My concern is related to that article you're talking about, where in there he's talking about loving football, not loving to watch basketball. It's the quote from Tom Crean. Later in that story, he kind of expressed how what he fears for him in the NBA is that he needs to be coached so closely.

He needs mentors around him. And I'm paraphrasing him here, but I look at Minnesota and it's like, aside from Ricky Rubio, who are the guys in that locker room? And who is that person who's going to really help him along? If that, if things go poorly there, if they're losing games, which they could be as a young team that doesn't have much defense on it what happens if they're like you know that the worst team in the west or second worst team in the west and for most of the season well don't we think that's how it's going to play out i think they are very well in the west or the second okay so you'll be the worst yeah okay so you'll be the

worst yeah they'll be the second worst team it's very possible and so like when things aren't going wrong when things are going wrong and you're on a long road trip that's what i worry about for him in minnesota without like if he was in golden state i'd feel good you know granted clay got hurt but like you still have dream on still have staff still have steve kerr still have a winning you know culture there and after years years of winning together with minnesota i i do worry about that aspect that creen was alluding to um and that's consistently been brought up by everybody I've talked to in the NBA. So Minnesota needs to get that right with finding the right veterans for him. Last thing.

I'm convinced Philly's going to trade for Harden. I thought there were a lot of tea leaves dropped at the draft last night. You just look at the moves they made. I love what Maury did last night well so they get rid of richardson and horford 38.4 million they bring back danny green curry ferguson 27.1 so he chopped 11.3 off their payroll right away. Plus the tire, the maxi pick. Um, I just, I'm looking at the hardened thing now and being like,

all right, if they're making a move for hardened and it's a Ben Simmons package, and then you put Ferguson and maxi in there and Zyra Smith and as many firsts and swaps as it takes to get it done. I don't know what that exact number would be. And you bring hardened in and now it takes to get it done. I don't know what that exact number would be. And you bring Harden in and now it's Harden with Seth Curry, Embiid,

Danny Green, just a bunch of shooters and whatever. That makes sense to me. I don't know if that's the plan, but I thought the Horford thing, and I actually thought Presti made a bad deal there because I think it was worth two first round picks to take on Horford thing. And I actually thought Preston made a bad deal there because I think it was worth two first round picks

to take on Horford, not one. So I was surprised they only did it for one. The last year, that contract isn't fully guaranteed. You know,

it's still a bad deal. It's still a bad contract. But you're basically, you're taking 50, 50 million extra in payroll to just get a first round pick.

I don't, I don't think that's worth it. I would have wanted two picks. This might sound stupid, but what if Horford looks good in OKC and they're able to turn him around? They try to flip him. Maybe they will. Maybe that's their intention. I mean, with Horford, he looked better in

situations in which he was the five and there was no Embiid and there was no Ben Simmons in the floor. And sometimes he looked better with Embiid and with the Simmons at the floor with him. So maybe there's still value in Horford that can be revived. I'm sure he's going to be doing everything possible to play well to get out of there. Yeah. In order to play for a contender, he doesn't want to be stuck there for the remainder.

My guess is he'll get, I think he's going to get spun even before that. I think he gets spun in the next two weeks. But anyway, the road is being paved for Harden. Then you think about... I thought it was interesting. Maxie was a clutch client. Simmons is a clutch client. And maybe Houston becomes kind of clutch South.

Maybe you do that trade, then they sign Caldwell Pope with the mid-level exception, stuff like that. How many first-round draft picks would you give with Ben Simmons? What are you comfortable with? I honestly feel like that's 85 many first round draft picks would you give with Ben Simmons? Like, what are you comfortable with? I honestly feel like that's 85% value for Harden considering the age difference,

the fact that he's under a long contract. All of us want to see him with his own team. And if you throw... Five years for Simmons, only two for Harden. Right.

You throw in Ferguson and Maxie, he's cheaper too. He's making 10 million less than Harden. You throw in Ferguson and Maxie, and then you do one first and then two pick swaps and call it a day. I think that's enough. I would not send him to Brooklyn.

I think it's outrageous that they think, that anyone would think you're going to get Harden for a bunch of dimes and quarters. It's not happening. You got to get a blue chipper back. I would be really surprised if that Brooklyn deal happened. Maybe that happens in 2021 if there's nothing else out there and teams are reluctant to offer for james harden but i don't even see it getting to that point if james harden is on the

market somebody's gonna pay his value he's an mvp caliber candidate and that's gonna get a great return and for houston maybe that will come from philly. And if you're Morey, having James Harden with Joel Embiid, I mean, do they immediately become the championship favorites in the Eastern Conference? Those two guys and their supporting pieces? I think so, too. I don't think that means they'll make the finals, but I think they have to be the team that's taken the most seriously.

Plus, Darrell is great at just adding 8th and 9th and 10th men. That's honestly his best skill as a GM, in my opinion. He over and over again can find specific role players for whatever team he has that can just come in and you're just like, oh my God, Austin Rivers? Really? And it's like, oh yeah, okay, Austin Rivers. And he's done that for 15 years. I'm looking forward to seeing what Philly does.

Big mismatch show for you tomorrow. Hopefully we'll have some more NBA news by then. And good to see you as always. Good to see you, Bill. Thanks for having me on. All right. Nora Princiati is here. She's cheating on the Ringer NFL show.

Coming over, having a dalliance with the BS podcast. She's been on before. Never for million dollar picks. We're going to do those later. You're living in Boston during just a fantastic time for football right now. Bill Belichick left for dead, including by people like myself. Dirt poured on him. It's over.

Tom Brady. Russillo's doing the legacy rankings every week on his podcast. Brady's just running away with number one every week. And then Belichick says, hold my beer. Grat comes flying in. The architect of a shocking Sunday night win over the Ravens. Pats fans are now buying Damian Harris jerseys, buying Kyle Duggar jerseys, looking at the schedule.

Think there'll be over 500 soon, trying to figure out a path to the eight seed because we're going to probably have eight playoff seeds. It's just got to be electric there in the Boston area, right? No, it is not electric at all. Oh, come on. It is not electric.

Who cares? Come on. This is not... That game against the Ravens, you will know this better than anybody else. The number of qualifiers that have to be attached to that is just like astronomical. And one of them that is probably the top one is like Harbaugh is a good coach. I think the Ravens are really well-run organization. But if you want to make the rankings of staffs that look across the field and see Belichick on the opposing sideline and just like lose it, up there.

Right. Well, that's a credit to Bill Belichick. The legend. The greatest coach in football history. Not willing to roll over and have a losing season. Look, when he brought the monsoon in, I thought that was the best thing he did. A lot of people don't realize Belichick can control

the weather when he really needs it. He brings in the hurricane right at the time Lamar has to go 80 yards. I thought it was great coaching, Jeff. Yeah, it was crazy because we got like a 15-minute rain shower in Boston that night. It might have been a little bit longer, but it really seemed very concentrated around the Gillette Stadium area. Very, very curious what was going on there. But the thing about the ongoing Brady Belichick rankings is that I don't think they're playing the same game. And Brady's always going to be at this weird disadvantage because he cares about longevity so much. But if they're going against each other, if we're going to play up that narrative, he's going against a coach who doesn't have to step

on a field and play a physical game every week. And that is such a losing battle to me that it almost... The caveat being if the Bucks win the Super Bowl, then the story changes a little bit. But he's attached so much of what he wants for his legacy and who he is as a player to just playing for a really, really, really long time. But the likelihood is always going to be that Belichick is going to be swinging and trying to come up with new ways

to have competitive teams after Brady's done playing or if he's a shell of himself. That I just think there's a long game going on here that's really different from this season. Where clearly, like the Patriots, who cares if they make the wild card round? Oh, come on. Come on.

They're heating up. They're gaining steam. I'm just, I'm doing all this for Kyle because Kyle was texting me during the Baltimore game. Like, let's go. Like, he's still in the 2015 mindset. Here's the thing with Brady and Belichick though. Belichick can control the weather. Brady has the ability to regenerate his own hair and have it change colors year to year.

Now he's got that full, full mop, even in bad weather, it just looks great. Um, his arm strength is in a lot of ways, probably better than it's been in five years. Like he's been overthrowing guys sometimes and things like that. On the flip side, he's got to miss the Belichick order of just how the Patriots operate and how the conditioning of everybody, the lack of penalties, the week-to-week execution, which in Tampa, it's just all over the

map. Week-to-week, you have no idea what Bucs team it's going to be. My dad calls me every week and is like, this must be so surprising to him. He's not used to them finding ways to lose and all the penalties and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I'm like, you just want to rub it in that the team you like is smarter than other teams. But it's true. There is something to that. I think that the arm strength point is a good one. He's had no issues with velocity.

He is the quarterback of a certain age trait that he shows is just pressure sensitivity. And they've been in good enough situations that usually it hasn't hurt him. But if he gets

knocked off, knocked off kilter and he doesn't have a clean pocket, then that's when things get wonky. Yeah. And you think, I thought that Breeze was instructive last week, right? Breeze physically has been kind of hanging on for a while and his arm strength has declined. But, you know, I think what happens, it happened to Favre in 2010. A couple hits go the wrong way, the older you get, it just becomes harder to shake them off. I think that's going to be a problem for Roethlisberger too, who's taken a couple of

really big hits this year, a couple of bad ones that looked like season enders. But I think that's something to watch as the season goes along. Cause I still feel like that one Vikings year, probably you were in elementary school at the time. Favre goes there and they're really good. And it was kind of one of the last games before the rules changed. And it was Bounty Gate, Greg Williams, all that stuff. And they're just hitting the shit out of Favre that whole game. And by the end of it, he was like a punch truck boxer. And that's when he had the famous interception when it was like third and 10 from the 37, whatever it is. You could wear down those dudes. I mean, I don't know if that's the case anymore

with how football is played, but these guys, Brady has taken some hits. We're going to talk about Rams bucks later. To me, the Rams are a bad matchup for him with the one thing we know they can do is they can get pressure with four guys. They have good cover guys and they're going to put licks

on them, you know, and as it gets a little colder and the weather starts to turn here, I can't imagine he's excited for that. Yeah, that goes both ways though, because the way that they can disguise their blitzes is going to probably there's some bad Jared Goff potential in that game too, but they're, they're at least constructed in a way where they don't need all that much from him. But if they are truly counting on Brady to win games for them, then I think it does come down to if they can keep him clean. I think where you really want him.

And there's certain quarterbacks like this when he's up seven, up 10, he's devastating. You know, like when he's in seven, up 10, he's devastating. When he's in control of the game and they can do play action and do all that stuff, that's when he's at his best. But I think like a lot of these guys, I feel that way about Goff.

I feel that way about Lamar Jackson. We could go through the league. There's probably 10 QBs when you're down 10, you start getting, and you kind of know what the other team has to do. That's where I get a little nervous. You know what I should have done? I should have just had our dads come on

to talk about the Patriots. Because my dad's all in too. He's like, hey, people keep counting Belichick out. Two plays, we'd be six and three. That's an actual quote from my dad. We're two plays away from six and three. But he's not technically wrong. I don't think,

I don't give anybody the Seahawks game. With what we know about the Seahawks defense at this point, like, come on, you can miss me with that. I do give people the Bills game

because that was just, you got to hang on to the ball. That was ridiculous. I can buy that argument. Two plays away from six and three, technically, like if we're in a court of law and you're like, here are the two plays. If Cam and three, technically, like if we're in a court of law

and you're like, here are the two plays. If Cam gets this, they beat Seattle. And if Cam holds onto the ball here, they might be Buffalo. It's fair. I love where your dad is with that though, because where my dad is, is trying to be the smart, thoughtful,

dispassionate fan. And, oh, thoughtful, dispassionate fan. And, oh, well, Belichick hasn't hamstrung the team for the future in all these different ways and it's all going to work out and you just have to be patient. And some of these young guys haven't had the chances that they need

and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, he'll just get these little digs in. Like, he loves to listen to the Bucs. He's all on, like, he doesn't like the Bucs broadcasting team or whatever. And I'm like, why are you...

You're walking around, like, listening to the radio. There's a weird spite thing with the Boston fans that's almost like we're a bunch of ninth graders whose boyfriend or girlfriend dumped us.

And then you're just kind of following them on Facebook getting mad at who they date. Like basically it's turned us into a bunch of 14 year olds. Yeah. So he's in the, I don't care. I don't care stage.

And it's very funny. He can do whatever he wants. I'm happy for him. It's fine. It's great. Go, go test the waters. Yeah,

no, it's, it's, it's very fun. Well, the most fun thing for the NFL would be if he could at least go a couple rounds in the playoffs. Totally. Compared to some of the other choices we have.

AFC East, though. So I heard you with Mallory last week, and it's amazing you didn't get fired from the ringer for not drinking two of Kool-Aid. I thought that was one of the prerequisites in the contracts we have, or at least with the writers. We have Ben Glicksman, who's like,

you would think he was like Tua's dad, or like his older brother or something, just driving the Tua bandwagon, but now Tua had one more good game since you did that podcast. Are you a believer yet? I am. I am a believer in Tua's potential

in my heart of hearts I still think that their offense would be better right now if Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing quarterback really everyone's so mad he was playing really well like built into everybody's feelings about that that going to Tua was absolutely the right call

was the history of Ryan Fitzpatrick that he's just going to fall off a cliff at some point during the season, which is fair. History teaches us that this is something that happens, but it hadn't happened yet. Well, I thought Tua some of the stuff

he does. I remember when Brady came in in 2001 when you were probably in nursery school and we had Bledsoe, who was this big lumbering six foot six. He had a cannon, but he was one of those guys, if he was about to hand off, you always knew it. He could barely get the ball to the running back. And then Brady came in, he was so crisp. And we run these play actions with him or these rollouts. And it was like, oh man, this guy's really, really got it.

Um, two reminded me of that on Sunday. Cause I really watched that whole game. Some, some of the fake handoff quick passes that he was doing. He looked like he was like a seven year vet. Like that, that to me was the one thing where I was like,

wow, he definitely doesn't look like a rookie here. And it kind of indicated what Mallory and Glicksman and some of the other people we have at the ringer who were like, too, is like the greatest college quarterback I've ever seen. So, um, I'm in, I'm in on Miami and it's all headed to that week 17 showdown they're going to have with Buffalo, which is probably going to be for the division unless Belichick can figure out how to control the weather every week. But it sounds like you like Buffalo more. I know. So I actually think Miami, I would pick Miami to escape with the division. But the thing is, I just think that they're

getting a defensive touchdown or a special teams touchdown basically every game. So all of this is like a very delicate brew between what's happening right now and what the future is. But I do think that the infrastructure and I think their schedule is a little friendlier than Buffalo's because if they win, the bills are off. If the Dolphins win this week, they're tied.

Yep. And then... We'll cover it when we do that Dolphins game, but they're basically going to be 9-3 unless they massively fuck up one of these games. They're looking at 9-3 heading into Week 14. Right, and they're always... I think their coaching staff is so good.

Their defense is really good. They're always going to have, in some ways, a little bit more of a margin for error in those little areas. It's Patriot-like in a way, whereas the Bills probably have a higher ceiling right now

just because of some of the things that we've seen Josh Allen do and how good their receivers are. But there's also more disaster potential. So because of Josh Allen. I love Josh Allen, but that's always going to be the higher variance option.

But just looking at who they have left to play, like I would go with the Dolphins. Sal and I, we did a whole thing on the pod Sunday about heart attack QBs. Josh Allen's definitely up there in both ways, right? If you're betting on him, you're nervous all the time. If you're betting against him, you're also nervous. I want to talk about Flores though. So you covered him two years ago and the defensive coordinator position with the Pats was over the last 20 years, always one of those positions where if he did well, everybody just assumed it was Belichick. And if the defense didn't look good, it was the defensive coordinator's people are writing, the quotes from the players, where it was clear that this guy's different, this guy's going to be a head coach. And then

it all culminated with the game plan he threw together against the Rams. What was it like to cover him? And could you see the seeds of this when he was the DC? I feel like the answer to that is totally. And that's, I mean, not that I could predict exactly what's going on, but he, you can talk to him for five minutes and you will immediately feel like

this is just a competent person who knows what they're doing. And above really anything else, he's just confident. Like there's always so much extra stuff that coaches and players have to deal with there in terms of how they interact with reporters. And the thing with Flores was that he always, and this is actually really rare. He just wasn't scared. He didn't talk to you like he was terrified

that he was going to say something wrong. He was just like, I'm not an idiot. So I'm just going to have a normal conversation with the human being and it'll be fine. And he was totally like that with players. Obviously, there's a different dynamic there, but he's a super strong people person. He's just easy going. He doesn't get tripped up by weird nonsense like not it's confidence, but it's not ego. And then you would also start to talk to people and talk to players and other coaches and just hear stuff about this dynamic

where Patricia was getting head coaching interviews, was sort of always in that candidate pool, and it was a little bit inevitable that he was going to get a shot somewhere. And so there was more support. Which was kind of dumb, but keep going. Sure. But that was how people thought about it. And there was more support in a way for someone like that, where it was just kind of inevitable in terms of how you do an interview and here's you know we'll coach you up to get one of these jobs with where Flores was it was so different because it was just like

you don't you don't even have this title you're on your own like if you can get one of these jobs fine go get it but we're not going to help you hurt us by leaving. And then he went there and he knocked his interview out of the park and the rest is kind of history. But if you look at that in hindsight and just recognize that one of these people did it really without any handholding from the institution, which obviously has a lot of pull around the league in terms of recommending candidates and talking to owners and talking to other general managers and stuff like that.

He just went out and did it. And that feels very much a part of his whole story. So he's just, you would meet him and go, this is an impressive person almost immediately. So there's very little about him running a team really well that seems surprising to me. They don't allow us to bet on coach of the year right now. I think it's almost a lock that he gets it

if the rest of this Miami season plays out the way I think it's going to play out. And I don't, I'm not, I guess Tomlin would be the other candidate, but Pittsburgh's schedule has been ridiculously easy. Kudos to them for being undefeated at this point. But I do think the schedule is a big piece of that. Whereas like with this Miami thing, given where they were even halfway through last season, where it was just a complete overhaul of fire sale, um, we're going to try to go in 16, all that stuff, to where they finished last season with some real momentum, which is, that's something I'm passionate about with the NBA, where I do feel like finishing the season matters. And going balls to the wall and trying to make the playoffs

and stuff like that versus just throwing stuff away, learning losing habits, tanking, all that. I've never been a huge tanking guy. I get it when it's like hopeless, but when you have young guys in there already, I think winning that last Patriots game was kind of set up everything

that's happening this year. When you have the character to do that and basically end the Brady era because it ended the next week because they didn't get the bye. I don't know. I respect that guy. I think he's...

I watch football every week. Miami is one of like the crispest teams. You know what I mean? They just seem like a well-oiled machine. Who else would be in that category for you? In terms of the well-oiled machines or for Coach of the Year? Well-oiled machine teams.

Well, normally it's the Pats, right? And in some ways, it's the don't beat themselves teams. Who else is crisp? Well, the Pats are a good example because the Pats are just like, we're just handing off. We're not letting our quarterback

throw interceptions anymore. We're handing off. We're slowing down the game. We're turning this into a 40-minute game. I actually think the Steelers are impressive in that way because they do a really good job of identifying

what their opponent weaknesses are and just attacking those. And I think that's just a smart way to go about playing football that a shocking number of coaches just don't do. I think if Tomlin wins Coach of the Year,

it'll be a little... He's done a very good coaching job this year, but it'll be a little bit of a retroactive thing. Yeah. Which is fine. Which is fine. Right. I wouldn't have a problem with that.

I think Flores has done a better job, but I can see the path for Tomlin, especially you look back at all those Antonio Brown years and just go, the fact that that wasn't worse is unbelievable. I think Sean Payton's up there too, because first of all, the Breeze thing, he's obviously physically is where it is. And then it finally broke last week. But it seems like the chemistry in that team is pretty strange and they've managed it.

And they pulled some games out of their butts that they could have lost. And in general, they seem like they're actually getting better, which is something we have to look at now as we get to week 10, week 11. You want to be, your arrow wants to be pointing up at this point. New Orleans seems like their arrow is at least pointing up. The Jameis thing, I guess we'll talk about that when we do picks. But yeah, it's the list of crisp teams.

The Niners can look crisp from week to week. And even last week when they were giving the Saints, and then the punt returner fumbled the punt, it was like the whole game flipped. But that 15, 16 minutes they played, it was like, wow, the Niners. Here they are. And then it went away.

This is a different one because they're just, their roster's in a different stage of building. The Panthers got a little bit of crispness. I agree. And they're coming up later too. All right, we're going to do Million Dollar Picks and then maybe squeeze in

three minutes on The Bachelor at the tail end. But that's all. Next, we're going to take a break. All right, Million Dollar Picks brought to you by FanDuel. I almost crushed last week. I came really close. I still won $470,000. I am up $284,000 for the season. And unfortunately, my favorite team ruined my hopes to go 4-0 on my big bets last week. All the Ravens had to do was win by one point and the Pats crossed with the Hurricane, knocked that off. This is my favorite stretch of time to gamble on, week 10, week 11, right before Thanksgiving, because for a couple of

reasons. One, I feel like I've seen everybody for two months. I really do think that by week 10, you start looking at whose arrow is pointing up, like we just discussed. And most important, there's a lot of good advanced metrics. Now we have like a big enough sample size. Like I take DVOA pretty seriously after 10 weeks, because now you're looking, that's 40 quarters of football, you know? And even if you have the one shit game, like that terrible Bucks-Saints game, you can throw that out and it's just not going to have as big of an

impact. What week is your opinion during this schedule is the week that we kind of know what we have with these teams? Well, I think you're right that it's right about now because with DVOA, they build in the preseason rankings for a while. And I think this

is the first, I think this is the last week when it's going to be part of it, but it's only just a little tiny smidge. So it really feels like you can one, have an understanding of how good the teams, the teams are going to have to play the rest of the way to make a playoff push are. And you kind of know what guys have, obviously like late season injuries and stuff can screw that up, but it's, this is the sweet spot. And then Thanksgiving next week.

And that's, that's when everything starts to get weird. Thanksgiving. You've six games in that Thursday, then six, six teams with a 10 day buy before the next game. And, um,

all right. First one. I like. Now, we're not officially picking. I'll do my picks at the end, but this is what I'm looking at. Parlay. A parlay. The parlay is minus 113. So we'd be risking $339,000 to win $300,000.

But the parlay is Steelers minus $500,000 against a slightly frisky Jaguar team combined with Miami minus 175 against Denver. Now, here's why I'm not just betting Miami minus three and a half. Well, there's two reasons. One, it looks too obvious and it frightens me. I don't understand why that line is only minus three and a half. I would have thought

it was going to be minus six. Miami's way better. Denver has been down by 20 plus points in each of the last four games. Now they came back somehow to win one against Anthony Lynn and Herbert. But that's one of the things

I like to look at is, are you just getting your ass kicked pretty regularly? You know, Denver is like, when you fall behind 20 plus in four straight games, guess what? You suck. That's really hard to do. For a month straight, you're going to be like, hey,

every game this month, we're going to go down 20. You're terrible if that's the case. And then Miami, as we talked about, arrow pointing up for them. And then that Steelers-Jags game. Jags are in an eight-game losing streak. I don't know what their incentive would be to win again

as much as I like Jake Luton free. So Steelers-Miami, both of them have to win. Anything concern you about either of those? Not really. Although I do think that I actually see more of a path

for Dolphins Broncos to be close than Steelers Jags. I just, you know, all love to Jake Luton, but they're going to blitz the heck out of him. And when he was, he got pressured a lot versus Green Bay. He was one of 10 for seven yards and a pick when he was under pressure. Yeah.

I don't think that's a great place to be going up against the Steel pressure. Yeah. I don't think that's a great place to be going up against the Steelers. Yeah. And the Miami thing is purely and simply has nothing to do with the actual talent on either side. It is all about all the degenerate gamblers who are like,

cool, Miami minus three and a half. They're good. I'll take them. All the money is going to be in Miami. And that's why I would rather have the money line because I think this has the chance of Denver losing by three, covering but not winning, stuff like that.

Denver's also weirdly, for how incompetent Drew Locke is, they have come back in some of these games. And he has keyed it up in the fourth quarter a couple times, which I don't really understand because when you watch him, you're like, this guy's not a starter. Well, they have good receivers. Now, the other thing is that locks

hurt. He's got a rib injury. So if this is Jeff Driscoll, all bets are off. But if he could manage to not turn the ball over, and if you're Xavier Howard, you're just salivating looking at this game, right? Yeah. And if the

Dolphins don't get a special teams touchdown or a defensive touchdown, then the formula kind of changes a little bit and you can see the game being close. The thing is, Locke's been throwing multiple picks a game and the Dolphins have been getting either a special teams touchdown or a defensive touchdown basically every game. So you're going against what's been happening pretty consistently. But there is there's a formula where like it's just one game. It's not out of the question that law could have a cleaner sheet than usual. And then all of a sudden, we still haven't seen this Dolphins offense be particularly explosive. They haven't needed to be. They haven't been in that

position. How about the new running back? That guy was great last week. Did you see that guy? I'm in two fantasy leagues and he went for huge bids in both the leagues. But he actually, I don't know, sometimes you see it with running backs. We're like, whoa, that guy's good. It was like Raheem Mostert last year watching him and you're like,

that guy's good. Why doesn't he play? And then Shanahan eventually was like, that guy's good. I should play him more. He should play. And I do, what's his name? I'm blanking. Ahmed. Ahmed. What's his first name though? Can't remember. Ahmed. Anyway, that guy.

He's good. Starts with an R, I think. And they were having trouble running the ball all year. So I think it's more likely, I hear your case on Denver, just to be a little frisky potentially. I think it's actually more. I hear your case on Denver. Just to be a little frisky, potentially. I think it's actually more likely Miami beats them handily. And honestly, if this is the type of team we think it might be, this is the kind of game you lay the smack down.

You haven't done anything yet to have a letdown game or to have a, we're just going to walk in. They haven't won anything yet. They're still like, you know, reminds me of the, the Brady, the first Brady Pats team when they were young and they, they really got better in November and December and they had, they lost to the Rams on a Sunday night and it was like a great loss. They lost by seven, but they really went toe to toe with the Rams.

And from that point on, they just started winning. And I feel like Miami is going to be like that. So by the way, Pittsburgh, the Ravens game that looks so dangerous for them next week might not be as dangerous because if the Ravens aren't the same team, they could be 12 and 0 heading into Buffalo week 14, Sunday night NBC. Yeah, they have a much easier schedule remaining than the Chiefs do. So at this point, they kind of have to be the penciled-in AFC top seed. Next game, speaking of the Chiefs. So the Chiefs are minus eight favorites against Las Vegas, who beat them early in the year.

The over-under is 56. Two things here. KC has not played an awesome game yet. They haven't played the game where they just kick the shit out of somebody. So there's one thing. Second thing,

it's been a storyline all week. Andy Reid was apparently really peeved. You don't get to hear the word peeved too much. I just dropped that on you. He's very peeved about the Raiders' behavior

after they beat Kansas City earlier in the year. Apparently, they were very celebratory on the bus and did like two laps around the stadium being all whipping and hollering. And he was mad about it. And he brought it up two different times. Then finally Gruden got mad. And there was like a little coach war going on.

And the reason I bring this up is KC has the number one offense based on DVOA, not a surprise. They have Pat Mahomes, who's the best quarterback in the league. Las Vegas, 25th DVOA defensively. And this has fuck you potential all over it for the Chiefs.

It's a revenge game. It is a how dare you did that thing with the bus game. It's a revenge game. It is a how dare you did that thing with the bus game. It is a we're up 14. We're going to be still throwing the ball to the Tyreek Hill game. I could see this being a high scoring blowout type of game.

What do you think? And they're coming up a bye too. The other factor in this, we don't know how many of them are going to be out or if they're all... The Raiders have the whole COVID thing. I forgot to mention that.

The Raiders have, I think, 11 defensive starters or 11 players, most of them defensive starters who are on the list. Who can't practice right now. Yeah, they can't practice, which can kind of go either way.

Like we saw that with Roethlisberger, but it's not... It's at this point not clear how many of those guys can play if they were just close contacts and they keep testing negative but so that that has to be part of this um the other thing that i think is relevant here is the chiefs having a blowout like statement game or whatever you want to call it would be huge for i think how people perceive them this year because it just feels like I don't know this is just me but it feels like they don't exist like it feels like no one talks about them and yet I was looking at I actually wrote about

this this will be on the ringer.com tomorrow wow Mahomes is basically playing as well and efficiently as he was in his MVP season. So that year he completed 66% of his passes. Pass rating was 113.8, 319 yards, 3.1 touchdowns, 0.8 interceptions per game. 2020, so far, 67% of his passes. Pass rating 115.9, 299 yards, 2.8 touchdowns, 0.1 interceptions per game. The thing is, if you look at some of the explosive plays and also take out some of the mistakes and you are getting a level of quarterback play that's as good.

So if you look at his yards per attempt, they're different because he's not quite throwing the ball as far and they're not quite scoring at the same rate. But if you look at his adjusted yards per attempt, they're basically identical because that's when you start counting in both touchdowns and interceptions. Now he actually had more touchdowns in 2018, so that should go in the other direction. But the lack of picks just makes up for all of that. So I think we're just not quite used to watching Kansas City not even really try to score 40 points a game. And if this is a game where they actually want to do that, like they've even talked about not wanting Mahomes to just have to be scrambling and pulling these throws out of his ass and doing all the crazy stuff. They've wanted to get away from that a little bit. If this is the game where they want to go back to it, like,

it's going to be Monday and we're just going to be going, like, here come the Chiefs. The Chiefs are clearly the best team in the NFL and here we go again. He's the leading MVP candidate on FanDuel right now,

which is funny because nobody is like, Mahomes is the MVP. But yet, he's plus 175. Wilson dropped to plus 280. Rodgers, 3-1. Rodgers three to one. Kyle Murray down to eight to one.

I have him at 25 to one. Actually bet that. Now it's down to eight to one. So Mahomes, this could be the five touchdown. Oh my God. Wait, Mahomes is the MVP. Oh yeah. The Chiefs are really good.

This could be that game. And I don't know. I feel like they need to make a statement. I'm with you. They've been very nondescript this year. And we've seen this. I mean, there's been other great offenses over the last 20 years where, remember the year after the Rams won the Super Bowl, it was the same thing. It was just like, all right, we already talked about them. Just kind of shove them to the side. But what I like here, Chiefs are favored by eight, the over is 56.

So you can tease that down to Chiefs by two and the over to 50. So basically, they have to win by a field goal, and you're just saying they're going to score 35 points. They'll win 35, 20, 35, 27, whatever it is. That's what I'm looking at. I want to combine that. Think high scoring and the Chiefs win. So mark that one down. All right. A couple other ones. I don't think I'm going to bet this one, but Jameis, my guy on the field, I don't like the off the field stuff, but the on the field Jameis, I've been a supporter. I just think he's more exciting and a better quarterback than, um, at least 12 of the guys we've seen this year. He finally got the job. Atlanta's coming off a bye week.

On paper, New Orleans is just way more dominant. They're first in DVOA. The other thing with their DVOA, they're sixth offense, fifth defense, fifth special team. So they're just good everywhere. And Atlanta's mediocre everywhere. They're 20th. Their units are 20, 22, and 20. Atlanta's just like, hey, we're not really good at everywhere. They're 20th. Their units are 20, 22, and 20.

Atlanta's just like, hey, we're not really good at anything. We're mediocre or worse at all phases of the game. But NFC South game, little battle, a lot of history. These teams have played a bunch of times. There's cheap touchdown potential with the plus four and a half. So Falcons can be down 10 and get the touchdown with a minute left. And then you figure Jameis throws one terrible pick. That might be a pick six.

I think it's more likely the Saints lose or have a weird game because of Jameis or he keeps them hanging around than it is that he's awesome. And people are like, wow, Jameis, man, Bree's never getting his job back. So that'd be the case for the Falcons who've actually been a lot better, I think, the last four or five weeks with Raheem Morris. So what do you think? Well, so is it Jameis or is it Tameis? Oh, you think it's going to be a platoon? I think there might be a little. No, I think. It's going to be a Tameis? I think there'll be a little bit of TAMIS. Well, what would it be? Trees? True? Jameson?

Yeah, I think it'll be basically the same, but maybe with a few more snaps for Taysom Hill. But I think Peyton even said or alluded to giving both of them some reps. So whatever that looks like could be pretty strange. Well, that's, I just want to point out that's never worked in the history of the NFL, but good luck to them. Like literally you could go through any situation. It's never worked. I just like saying TAMIS. So for that alone, I hope he does it. How would you spell that? T-A-Y-M-E-A-I-S? Yes. Okay. I like it. I'm with you in that. I think the Saints are just clearly,

they're across the board much better. It is an interesting game. So the Lattimore versus Julio battle is probably a pretty significant one because he's one of those guys who was really having a rough time earlier in the season when the Saints defense wasn't playing very well.

And he had that great game to get back on track after Mike Evans. And Julio, though, I think has played pretty well against him in the past. So that's a significant one. The Saints also have allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. So Malcolm Jenkins on Hayden Hurst is also a big one. If all of that goes poorly, then I can see some matchup pathways for the Falcons. The biggest thing though, if you wanted to find some upset potential here is not Jameis throwing one bad pick. It's Jameis throwing three bad picks.

Well, and I mean, take some hell. He could absolutely give us one too. Between the two of them, I would say we're probably getting two terrible plays that could be a pick. So you could, one bet you could do here is you could do Falcons and the over, which is four to one.

Which feels, feels like there's a lot of- So if you're like the Falcons are to win 27, like, I guess they'd have to get to 30. 30 to 27, 28 to 24, like that kind of, 28, 27.

I don't know. I'm probably saying... I worry about Kirst going off in this game, but I actually kind of trust Lattimore in that matchup a little bit more. Definitely than I would have a few weeks ago.

But... One thing, one thing with the Saints though, they don't, have they had a shit game yet. One thing with the Saints, though, have they had a shit game yet? It's been a while, right? They've even won a couple of their shit games, but not since September have they had a stinker. Yeah.

Yeah, but again, Tamas. Where are you in the Kamara for the MVP? It's just not... No. You don't vote for running backs? I am now fully on the, it goes to a quarterback. Like we just,

we should acknowledge it in writing or we should create a separate award, but that's, yeah. If the word value is a part of the equation, then it's going to a quarterback. I'm not going to do this Falcon Saints game because I actually want to, uh, want to root for Jameis,

um, just to be exciting. I don't even want to, I don't want to have either side. I just want Jameis to be involved, the good or bad in every series, interceptions, touchdowns,

Michael Thomas throwing, getting 190 yards, receiving somebody returning a pick six. I just want to enjoy the game. Next one, Panthers minus one and want to enjoy the game. Next one. Panthers minus one and a half against the lions. So kind of similar teams, two bad defenses,

two pretty good, two really good offenses, depending on what week you see them. Uh, Bridgewater hat is probably going to play. He's got a little bit of banged up knee, but not bad enough not to play. The biggest thing for me, because the teams are so similar,

coaching, I feel like Carolina's coaching staff versus the Patricia gang, that has to be worth three points. So I'm just looking at Panthers minus one and a half, thinking it should be three points for the coaches. Everything else is even. Why isn't this Panthers minus three? What do you think?

So Stafford also has a thumb injury. And then DeAndre Swift, who had 149 yards last week, has a concussion. So he's probably not going to play. He's probably not going to make it through the protocol in time. So that puts them back to

Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson. I, before that, kind of felt like the Lions actually would have had an edge just because they've played better when they play zone than when they play man defense. And without McCaffrey, there's just sort of no one scaring you that you need to go man-to-man against on Carolina, particularly if Bridgewater's banged up. So I felt like if they could lean on their running game, if Swift had another good game, there was a path there.

But if he's where I would want to favor the Lions, but if he's not playing, then I think the combination of that, Stafford also being hurt, probably means that the coaching staff advantage becomes more significant. I'm going to give you one other thing. I'm going to present this theory to you

without any evidence at all to back it up. It's just completely intuitive. It is the opposite of advanced metrics. I think when you play that early Thursday morning game, which the Lions have to do every year on Thanksgiving, and you have that Sunday game, I think you're just bummed out. I would say it would be the equivalent of like you had that Mahomes piece you're writing. Right. And then let's say we had some other feature that was due for you

two days later and you have to do a podcast. And at some point you're just kind of like, oh man, I just got to get through these next few days. And you get that mentality, right? Or like when you're in college, the huge test. And then it's like two days later, you have that other big test that's hanging over your head. And it kind of blurs into one big, giant, awful test. And I think the Lions, like this is a tough game. And then on top of it, they have to play.

When is that? They're playing Thursday at 930 against Houston. Yeah, that's a letdown. And then we're in COVID and guys are banged up. And it's just, I don't like it. I don't like the spot. And I think Carolina is pretty good. I think they're like a weirdly,

their record doesn't reflect what, I think they're a solid, mediocre five and five team that is somehow three and seven. Yeah, they're frisky. I keep calling them frisky and I think it's right for them. I do think that and this is look, they're getting tested. They have good jobs. They're in a better position than a lot of people. But I do think this is the time of year when we're going to start realizing that there's a lot of players who are just dragging and bummed and they go into work and they can't hang out in the facility. They can't even really talk to their teammates in a normal way.

And at a certain point, it takes a toll and it's going to be dark early in the day and it's cold in Michigan. And I think it's going to start feeling a little bit more like a slog for some of these teams that aren't super competitive. They're four and five to probably not making the playoffs. Um, all right. A couple more games. We're gonna take a quick break. All right. So we liked the Panthers a little bit. This next game, this is a simple one.

Browns minus three, Eagles. The case is simple. The Eagles stink. They're 29th in DVOA. I actually think they're worse than people realize. And then the Browns, they kind of know who they are. They have a good coach. They run the ball.

They're going to run the ball some more. Then they'll run the ball. And they're not going to turn the ball over. They're not letting Baker do anything. They're going to try to take a three nothing lead and then they're going to run the ball some more and kind of just let the other team fuck up. That's who they are.

The Eagles are a team that love to fuck up, love to fall behind and then try to make heroic comebacks. But you're not going to do that against a team that has just Chubb and Hunt, Chubb and Hunt, Chubb series, Hunt series, Chubb and Hunt together, Chubb series again. And by the fourth quarter, I think those two guys are two of the best

seven running backs in the league. I think they're really tough to play. I know they don't put up huge points, but over and over again, they just control these games and they just make them ugly and unfun. And, um, I like Browns by three. I like that. It's not three and a half. So that's my case. What do you think? By the way, the Eagles can totally lose this and still be leading the NFC East. Right. It's not even a must win for the Eagles. So it's unbelievable. I think we had a production call earlier and Kevin Clark called this like the Schrodinger's cat bowl is just like, who cares?

Everyone can die and we won't even really know if they're dead. Right. I think that's right. The Eagles chance is probably to get Miles Sanders going who hasn't had a particularly good year. But the Browns are 31st in coverage against running backs, according to football outsiders. Oh. If they were willing to just not have Carson Wentz try to win games in a situation where he clearly cannot,

then maybe I could see this being a little bit close. But the Browns are just going to win a lot of 10-7 games like they did last week. And that's the formula. So that's the case not to bet this because you could almost...

Maybe I could do Browns to minus two and a half and get better odds than that. I'd feel like the Browns are going to win a lot of games by three points. I'm stunned by how kind of disheveled the Eagles are. And the fact that they beat a Belichick team. I don't know. Frank rank must be the most unbelievable offensive coordinator of all time.

The Eagles do stuff where they're like, they're down. I think last week they were down four and they went for a two-point conversion. I don't think I've ever seen that before in my life. It's almost like Peterson doesn't know what the score is when they have these PAT decisions. They do some of the strangest, weirdest stuff we tweak I've ever seen. I'm in disbelief by them. Except the irony of this entire season is going to be the fact that they played for that tie really could be the thing that helps them win their division. Right, that that was like a smart move.

The decision that we all ridiculed and was objectively ridiculous could be the thing that wins them the NFC East. Well, with the Browns, I do think they have a good coach. I think Stefanski turned out to be a good hire. And, you know, he's doing the, he's doing the bell check thing. He looked at his team and he's like, we're good at this.

We're not good at that. And so we're going to do it this way. And it's not like he brought in his system. He just is using what he has. So Mark, Mark, that went down at least for a little one Packers Colts. I don't have a firm opinion on unless you do. Packers are plus one and a half. It's in Indianapolis.

The case is simple. It's just Rodgers against Old Man Rivers. But more importantly, so the Packers are almost a team that should have been a turf team. When I watch them, it's kind of a shame. They're an NFC North outdoor bad weather team. They would have been so much better as an NFC North outdoor bad weather team. They would have been so much better as an NFC South playing in a dome team. They would have been a better version of the Falcons than the Falcons.

And I was just thinking of them in this game. I like the thought of them inside on turf with fast receivers and Rodgers doing Rodgers stuff. And this feels like the kind of game you're watching, and they're just up 20-3. And Devontae Adams has 78 or a touchdown. You're like, oh man, the Packers look awesome. That would be my case for that. What do you think?

Do you think if they were a turf team, they would draft, particularly draft receivers differently? Or draft any receivers? Yeah, it's like a whole different vibe, right? Like GMs envisioning like guys streaking down the sidelines. They've got the great, you know, they can control the lighting and it looks great. And they're like, yeah, yeah, we got to get them. These guys, it could totally change this whole franchise. Yeah. Any thoughts on Packers Colts? Is there what should I be worried about with the Col general with you that this is a hard game to get a feel for because the Colts have a great defense that hasn't played a lot of great offenses and the Packers offensive line is good enough so that Rodgers is going to be upright. He's going to have time. And then I trust him just a little bit more

than the Colts defense to be able to make the tight window throws. Xavier Rhodes is probably going to shadow Adams, but I still just feel a little bit more confident about Rodgers being able to hit those and make the plays that matter. I'd rather be on the Packers than the Colts here. So if you look at the Colts' wins, they beat Minnesota in week two, and Minnesota was really beaten up. A disaster. They were a mess. They beat Minnesota in week two and Minnesota was really beaten up.

A disaster. They were a mess. They beat the Jets. They beat the Bears, which as from what we know now, the Bears is not anything to brag about. They barely beat the Bengals. They beat the Lions.

And I think Stafford was hurt in that game or he got hurt or something weird happened in that game. They got killed by Baltimore two weeks ago. They scored in that first drive. They put three points up after that. And then that Tennessee game last week, which I watched, Tennessee had the lead and their punter completely changed the game. Their punter had the worst 10-minute stretch I've ever seen from a punter. And all of a sudden, the Colts were running away with the game. I don't even know what it was. That was like your classic Thursday

night. I don't know what to make of this game game. So my point is, I'm not sure the Colts have a win yet that I'm like, Ooh, nice win. You know, I like the Titans a lot. So I thought that was pretty impressive, but I also do think that the shakiness of their offense, the biggest thing is whether or not Rivers feels comfortable and going against the Titans who just can't rush the passer. That's always going to be a really big advantage. So I mean, I thought the Titans were going to win that game. And I thought it moved the needle on where the Colts are for me a little bit, but it's still a pretty favorable situation. Green Bay, their defense is not good,

but they actually, and it's against the Jaguars, all the caveats in the world, they did get a little bit of pressure going there. So if they're able to recreate that against the Colts, which is obviously a much bigger challenge, then that's where this game could actually not be close to me. I think that's less likely to happen than it is that Rodgers, even though the Colts have a very good secondary,

if their defensive line doesn't get after him, he'll still be able to pick them apart enough. But if Rivers is bothered, then it kind of gets out of hand. I'm going to sprinkle a little on the Packers. I'm not sure how much yet. Last one. I'm looking to make sure the line hasn't changed. Okay.

Last one. Rams-Bucks. Rams are four-point underdogs in Tampa. They're plus 172 to win the game outright. And you have this this Bucks team that is a classic

Jekyll Hyde team depending on what week you see them. I do think it's one of those teams the kind of team that I personally hate. The team that looks awesome when they're up 10.

When they have the ball up 10 it's like, whoa man, look at these guys. Another 80 yard drive. Looking awesome. But the team that looks awesome when they're up 10, when they have the ball at 10, it's like, whoa, man, look at these guys. Another 80 yard drive. Look at awesome. But,

um, they're just kind of all over the map. You watch them and you think, man, that defense is really good. And then in the saints game, they get, they get absolutely demolished.

They'll have these games where they'll have just 12 penalties. A holding penalty every time they complete a third and seven and stuff like that. They're all over the map. Then you have the Rams, who I think have a better coach. I think the Rams know who they are at this point. I think they can absolutely get a pass rush on Brady

and push the middle of the pocket, make it move left to right, which is how you beat them. And the thing that worries me is Goff. And Goff could single-handedly screw this bet. The Bucks could get after him, make him do Jared Goff things. And we'll know within the first 20 minutes, right? That's the deal with Jared Goff. You always know by the game starts at 125 Pacific time. You know by 150 whether you're in or out with the Rams. So part of me wonders if you're going to bet the Rams, just bet the money line.

But I do like the four. What do you think? The problem is that for the Rams, this is going to be the first game that they're playing without Andrew Whitworth. And stabilizing their offensive line play is the biggest reason that they turned it around

from last year to this year. If that looks like it really hurts them, this game has so much bad Jared Goff potential that that scares me more than how much I think the Rams defense will be able to bother Brady. Yeah, that's pretty terrifying. So this is the problem with betting the Rams. Right.

You bet the Rams and you just hate yourself 20 minutes into the game. Like you really do. You actually feel bad about yourself. You would rather go down having Aaron Donald just destroy Tom Brady's life for an evening than you would being like, I thought Jared Goff was going to do this and he didn't and I'm stupid. All right. I'm marking that down,

but I'm probably going to go a little lighter on that one. Long shot parlay of the week. We have three choices. The Dallas Cowboys are in all three choices, just for the record. Dallas Cowboys are, what is the exact line? Plus 260 to win in Minnesota. Here's the case.

They're somehow still in the NFC East. Dalton's back. They still have some good people. Minnesota, I'm not sure how Minnesota has graduated to the now we are touchdown favorites against people. It was much more fun when they were kind of the precocious underdog in some of these games.

And oh man, look out for Minnesota. It's still Kirk Cousins laying a lot of points, which I think should make anyone nervous. And I just like the plus 260. You can talk me out of that right now if you're anti. Okay, so the reason that the Vikings started the year with a really young secondary that's really benefited from getting some time to play together. Jefferson's fantastic.

I don't like living my life in a way that's dependent on Kirk Cousins' performances, but I also don't like living my life in a way that's dependent on Kirk Cousins' performances, but I also don't like living my life in a way that's dependent on Andy Dalton performances. And I don't think anytime someone starts a sentence with, oh, well, they've got Andy Dalton back, we're going down a bad path. Words hurt. And you're right. Do you like Atlanta? Our other choices are Atlanta, Tennessee, and the Jets. I need to find two. So our four choices are Dallas like Atlanta, Atlanta? Our other choices are Atlanta, Tennessee, and the Jets. I need to find two.

So our four choices are Dallas, Atlanta, Tennessee, and the Jets. Tennessee is plus five and put two to one underdogs at Baltimore. So it would basically be an anti-Baltimore bet. The Jets are plus nine and a half plus 360 against Justin Herbert and his new haircut and Anthony Lynn

who who clearly is not going to be keeping his job. And that just seems like a lot of points. And then what was the other one? Atlanta we talked about.

Actually kind of as a long about actually kind of as a long shot I kind of like Atlanta okay so Atlanta and who I need two teams Atlanta and the Jets you like the Jets

I can't do it that would be like a Chargers or Cursed maybe can we short Baltimore here? Okay. So we could do Atlanta, Tennessee, 7-1 plus 7-0-4. What do you think?

Yeah. Okay. I like it. You talked me into that. Tennessee plus 7- plus 704. All right. And I'm going to sprinkle just a smidge on Andy Dalton. Just an inkling.

All right, here we go. You ready? Million dollar picks. Week 11. We're going to be putting $452,000 to win 400 on a parlay, minus 113. Steelers, minus 500 against the Jags, and Miami, minus 175 against Denver. Both have to win. Steelers, Miami, minus 113 to win 400 K. Then we're going to put for 200, a little teaser. Chiefs minus eight over 56.

So we're teasing the Chiefs down to minus two and the over down to 50 against the Raiders in the bus revenge game. Panthers minus one and a half against Matt Patricia's Lions. We're going to sprinkle 100 K on that one. So it's a dash. Browns minus three Eagles, same thing.

100K in the Browns. Packers plus one and a half against the Colts. What do you think, 100 or 200? I think it'd go a little higher on that one, right? Yeah. Yeah, 200K in the Packers. And then, just for fun, just so I can either get mad or be super happy, 200K in Rams plus four against Tampa. And I'll get mad at

Jared Goff if he hurts my feelings. And then we're going to put 25K Atlanta, Tennessee, plus 704. And then we'll put, just for fun, 10K Dallas, Atlanta, plus 855 million dollar picks. We're up $284,000. That is the million dollar picks for week 11. Before we go, Nora, the wrestling on The Bachelor, I really think they need a sports consultant for The Bachelor. I've not been happy with the sports. I'm right here. I know Chris Harrison.

We have a texting relationship. He's going to be on the rewatchables early next year. When they do these sports things, I don't know why they don't bring me in as a sports consultant. The water basketball, I don't know what was going on with that. And then they have this wrestling thing and the guys are wrestling basically on concrete. It's it's,

I don't know what they were thinking. There was, they should have had 40 doctors on hand between the cuts on the legs and the possibility of a concussion or getting body slammed. Like somebody could have died during that. And it's just very clear to me that nobody in the bachelor franchise has ever been involved in sports in any capacity. What are your thoughts? I had a weird reaction to that whole thing in a completely different way, which was just like, we've already done, we did the, the naked dodge ball. And then now we're like putting oil on

people like the, I need the, I love the bachelor and I'm really enjoying this season. I particularly love Tayshia. Everybody's got to take a cold shower and chill out. We just don't need this. It's too much. You know what I think they're doing? I think because they can't go on real dates because they can't travel,

I think their answer has been to sex it up a little bit and do the dodgeball stuff. Even when they introduced Tayshia and she's coming out of the pool in slow motion with the guys. And it's clearly like their anecdote tour or their antidote to like, we can't go to Argentina and we can't go to France and we can't go to Denver.

And so I, but yeah, I'm with you. It's too overboard. It's too. And it's great. I mean, they clearly like all of the guys clearly think Tasha's gorgeous, which she is. And it's great. I mean, they clearly like all of the guys clearly think

Tayshia is gorgeous, which she is. And that's great. Like that always makes for a really good season when you know that they're all like, whoa. And yeah, you can accomplish that without having the like Baywatch on steroids pool exit and literally having her paint oil onto various chests. It's one of those things that I've talked about with ringer people who talk about this stuff for a living. And you kind of wonder, is this just something that pops into your head when you're trying to kind of analyze this stuff? And then in talking to my friends, I've heard the exact same thing from people who are just like watching it to have a good time being like, I don't need this on my television. It's really too much. So I hope they chill out on it because otherwise I'm very much

enjoying the season. What is your thoughts on the conspiracy stuff that they knew this Claire thing was going to play out the way it did? So they had Tayshia basically warming up like Jameis Winston on the sidelines, waiting to get the call from Sean Payton, knowing that Claire was going to self-destruct or fall in love immediately or whatever. And I mean, everyone had to quarantine for two weeks. So they had to hustle her in there at some point and then agree on a contract with her. You know, all of it seems superficial to me. Well, Claire, Claire was not not my preferred flavor before the season started.

And I really found her episodes kind of tough. So in some ways, it would be kind of genius because Tasha is awesome. But they set her up for success in a really significant way because coming after that, all the guys were pissed. And she's also just such a nice personality after the very high anxiety, very high feelings, feelings, feelings, Claire stuff. Just having Tayshia be like, cool, relaxed, here to have a good time, figure stuff out. Not everything has to be about like,

oh my God, will you be the first person in history who hasn't left me? It's just so much easier to watch. So if they did it on purpose, I think it's kind of genius. Like she seems like a home run. I think they might've done it on purpose. Claire, they definitely did it on purpose

because Claire, to me, is like Ryan Fitzpatrick. We've, she's been on a few bachelor teams, right? When she, whatever the last terrible bachelor imperatives experience she had, we all kind of agreed Ryan Fitzpatrick can't be a starter.

And then when they just brought her in as the bachelor bachelor bachelorette, um, you kind of know what you're getting. You're not winning the super bowl with Claire. You're, you're bringing her in because she's going to turn the ball over. There's the games are going to have wide variance from quarter to quarter

and weird shit's going to happen. So I don't know. I think they got what they wanted. I'll tell you this. I like to think I'm dating my wife. We've been together 22 years. We've been married for a lot of those. But since going back to when we first started dating, 22 years, nobody has ever made her angrier on a reality show than Claire. I can't even believe how upset she was by Claire as a fellow woman for all the stuff Claire was doing. And just as somebody who also likes the franchise, she was enraged.

She hated Claire, wanted her out, was just furious. I'm with her. Yeah. It was tough. It was bad. And Juliet always does a good job of this on Bachelor Party. You never know how much of it is the edit, what they're cutting out.

But man, it's really hard to think that the edit really changed that much of what was going on here with Claire. Anyway. They got engaged. If they, that's it. But they definitely knew each other before the show.

I don't, they could swear all they want, but the whole thing was fishy. She beats him like, I've just met my husband. Like, that was too fishy. Sure. Totally. And all those people, if they're, especially if they're quarantining and they've got their phones and stuff, of course they talk.

But they still got engaged. Yeah. And they didn't have a long history together unless there's like a crazy thing going on. If they were just DMing or talking to each other or Instagram stalking each other and kind of getting to know each other's vibe that way and then he walks up and she's like

oh my god this is everything I hoped it would be and they spend a few afternoons together and an evening and then all of a sudden she's like totally ready to go. Ultimately, that's pretty consistent with the edit that she got.

Well, Tayshia is pound for pound the greatest bachelorette they've ever had. Total package. Yeah. The bachelorette is always like a little bit flawed and I have my own theories on that. I think they want somebody who's kind of think they, they want somebody who's identified, like kind of identifiably single versus somebody who's just like, you know, the, the perfect

package. It's always somebody that you're like, okay, I can see why, why she's on here. Taysha is like, why is she on here? Like, this is, she's incredible across the board. And I think the guys, they must feel like they won the lottery. They go from Crazy Claire and then Tayshia Waltz is in. And you could see it. Like the vibe was like, oh my God, she's the bachelorette.

This is nuts. I will say there's been some good Bachelor in Paradise candidates that have emerged from this season, which is really like the Bachelor or the Bachelorette is really the breeding ground for the most important show on TV. Other than the challenge,

the bachelor in paradise chase and making a strong chase and now a high lottery pick. I mean, we have to be thinking about them like Trevor Lawrence. Yeah. And Bennett Bennett, another one. And I think,

I think even Ed, I see Ed, you know, sitting at the whatever bar. What's that bar that Wells, the bars guy? Yeah. Sitting there kind of being a sad sack and then eventually deciding to leave because he doesn't have a connection with anyone. You can kind of see his Bachelor in Paradise thing.

But Chasen will definitely get in a fist fight with somebody at Bachelor in Paradise. Yeah, and probably cause a fight between women. Very possible. The best part of Bachelor in Paradise is when they all show up

one by one. And then there's like five of them there. And then it's like, who's that? Who's coming down the steps? And then it's Chasen. Like, oh, it's Chasen, this guy. And the girl's like, oh, stay away from that guy. He's back out in five minutes. Somebody's all over him. Like, hey, can we go for a walk? He's good looking in the world, but he's also like reality television, super good looking. Right. It's perfect storm when you can have the you're strong with the chest out

with like handsome face, but kind of a dumb look on your face and you're just not going to be that intelligent, which is fine for anybody on that show. He's going to be really compelling to a lot of the women and he's also a blank canvas for the producers. I would say

Trevor Lawrence. I just saw somebody sneak an arm behind you. Yeah. Is that a roommate? Yeah. Do you have a burglar? Yeah, I got to go call the police. We've got an intruder.

You're simply safe. Yeah, I would give the Bachelor season so far like a nine out of 10 would be my rating. It's been really good. And I think that the Claire to Tayshia transition is a big part of that. I agree. Nora Princiati,

we can hear you on the Ringer NFL show. Read your Mahomes piece tomorrow on theringer.com. Thanks for coming on as always. Thanks for having me. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kevin O'Connor.

Thanks to Nora Princiati. Happy birthday, nephew Kyle. Enjoy the weekend. Stay out of trouble. Curfew here in LA, I guess. We'll see how that goes. Enjoy the weekend and we'll see you on Sunday night. I don't have feelings with him

On the wayside I'm a person never lost I don't have feelings with him