The Bill Simmons Podcast - Trubisky’s Folly, WTF Antonio Brown, Million Dollar Picks, and "Mallory’s Most Intriguing" With Joe House and Mallory Rubin | The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode Date: September 6, 2019

HBO and The Ringer’s Bill Simmons recaps the 2019 NFL season opener, Packers at Bears (2:55), before making million-dollar picks with Joe House (17:48). Finally, Bill is joined by Mallory Rubin for "Mallory’s Most Intriguing," in which she shares her five most intriguing story lines of the week in football (1:05:30). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tonight's very special episode of Friday Rollin' on the Bill Simmons Podcast. On the ringer. Podcast Network is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. Hiring can be a slow process. Cafe Altura's COO, Dylan Miskiewicz, needed to hire a director of coffee. Guess where he went? ZipRecruiter. He posted his job, found the best person for the role in just a few days.

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Thanks. Well, we're related. But you love Russillo, though. I love Russillo. Yeah. So we have that. He's talking football. Backup quarterback today. Has he done a weird one yet?

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a really great story about Dan Patrick and Keith Olbermann who in the 1990s revolutionized everything we thought we knew, not just about sports TV, but even more than that. And I learned some stuff in it, but it's a really good feature. Check that out as well. Coming up, Friday rolling.

I'm going to give my thoughts on the game we watched tonight, Bears-Packers. And then we're going to do Million Dollar Picks with Joe House and the debut of a new feature that we're going to have all the way through the football season. It's called Mallory's Most Intriguing with Mallory Rubin. So that's all coming up first. Our friends from Pearl Jam. All right. Thursday night, we just watched the Bears-Packers game.

I hesitate to call it a game. Kyle had to go into the bathroom and wash his eyes out after. Mitch Trubisky was just an absolute train wreck. The Bears were terrible. The game was terrible. It was really awful. The Packers won 10-3. And normally we don't like to overreact with these week one games,

especially the Thursday nights when preseason is becoming less and less relevant. But holy mackerel, this is a big moment for the Bears. This was, especially the defense comes out early, but there was a lot of Trubisky talk in the off season. I was clicking right after the game, I was clicking on this NBC sports piece from a couple of days ago, NBC sports Chicago. And they're writing about how this is kind of like Trubisky's time potentially. That's at least what the Bears are hoping. And the writer wrote, this is an organization from the front office to the coaching staff to the players

confident in its quarterback. They've seen the strides Trubisky has taken in the eight months since he last played a down to meaningful football. They believe in his ability to not only operate Matt Nagy's offense, but operate it at a high level. That play calling coach quarterback relationship is at the center of the Bears 2019 hopes.

And then later the GM Ryan Pace says, we use the words incremental growth. That's exactly what's happening with Mitch. I feel bad because when somebody's that bad, it's actually kind of painful. He was really bad. And it's funny because Collinsworth was announced in the game without Michaels and seemed to be way more confident in Mitch than we were. And then he made a terrible throw at one point in the late,

in the fourth quarter. And he's like, that's the first major bad decision Mitch has made. He should have had five interceptions in that game. The Packers literally dropped two in the first half. He, uh, he made bad decisions over and over again. He threw uncatchable balls. He was throwing those passes where the receivers are jumping up for balls they have no chance for and potentially are going to get decked on the way down. He missed a wheel route pass to Davis on that last drive when they almost tied the game and then he ended up throwing a pick. I mean, he was just truly, truly terrible. And again, I don't like overreacting to week one at all in any way, but he failed that test so convincingly and so devastatingly and so jarringly that now I don't know what to think of

the Bears. I really thought they were a Super Bowl contender and I thought he was at least going to give them a C plus. Now, I was really surprised by how bad their game plan was and just like they were just way too, I thought, over creative. I saw some stat after the game. Tariq Cohen was basically a slot receiver in this game. He wasn't really being used as a running back. So if you're going to do that, well, that's great. You should definitely do that if you're going to unleash David Montgomery,

who everybody loved coming out of college, who was a huge fantasy sleeper guy. And he rushed the ball six times for 18 yards. I actually liked some of the runs he had in this game. I thought he looked a little shifty. In general, though, they ran the ball 15 times for 46 yards, and they threw the ball 45 times for 208 yards, which is abominable.

Mitch threw one pick. He should have add four. There were so many bad passes and discouraging plays. And I don't really know what to make of this. I know people are going to blame the preseason and say, this is what happens when we don't have a preseason. Everybody wants it both ways. Everybody hates the preseason, but then when we have a terrible week one game everyone says we need a preseason I just wonder

if this is going to damage this team long term because we've seen it go sideways with quarterbacks I remember Jake DeLome this must have been like 10 years ago when he was just so awful the first couple weeks of god what season was

that? I remember writing about it week after week when it just was clear he kind of lost, lost the steering wheel. And then it happened again a few years later with Houston with Matt Schaub when he, when they thought that Houston team was going to be a Superbowl contender and he was just terrible. And it became pretty clear after a few weeks that he was unplayable. So we've, and I remember I wrote about that at the time too. We do see this happen with quarterbacks where if they kind of lose their confidence and they lose the steering wheel a little bit, and it happens early in the season, the fans

get mad, the media gets mad, starts writing about it every day. The bears, they get overprotective or whatever team it is. And it just kind of snowballs. And I think that's what I want to see what happens with them, you know, next week and the next couple of weeks, whether this was a complete aberration, write it off. And we just know from now on, well, this is what happens. When Mitch is bad, he's really bad. Or if this is the start of something a little more substantial, here's the problem for them. Now they're going to Denver next week and they're playing the Broncos,

and that Broncos defense is as good as the Packers defense we saw tonight. It might even be a little bit better. If that goes badly, that's a tough spot. That's a tough 10 days to hear about how bad you were in this game and then you have Denver waiting for you. So, you know, again, not to overreact. No, it's the third time I've said that. But this does have the possibility to go sideways.

Now, if you're looking at it from the Packers' perspective, their defense is definitely better. I mean, there's no question. It was much more lively in the front. They pressured Trubisky a lot. Sometimes he would stumble into the pressure. But they did look much friskier. And it was a pretty consistent thing. It wasn't in spurts. They were consistently doing well,

I thought, in the front seven. And the secondary is better. It seems like they actually got help in the draft. That was one of the problems with the Bears is they traded those picks for Julio Max. So they didn't really have the talent infusion in the draft. That was one of the problems with the Bears is they traded those picks for Khalil Mack, so they didn't really have the talent infusion in the draft other than Montgomery. But if you're a Packers fan, you have to feel great about the defense. Rodgers looked terrible.

He wasn't the player of the game. He was good for a minute and a half in that game. He had one drive where he chucked one downfield for 50 yards. Trubisky almost had the identical play, and they called, I think it was Taylor Gabriel or Miller, one of those two, for the push in the back pass interference. But I really didn't think Rodgers did much in this game.

He put up 10 points. He put up three points during 58 minutes of the game and then seven in the other two. But I think the defense was encouraging and the chemistry and stuff on the sideline looked better. It's definitely, you know, the Mike McCarthy thing, they definitely lasted a couple years. It was like the relationship of the people that dated in college

and then kind of tried to keep dating after college and when they would come to, you know, a party or meet everybody at the bar, it was just the vibe was off and it just made everyone uncomfortable. That was kind of Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers last years. So it does have that new fresh couple vibe, but I didn't think he looked,

certainly didn't look like vintage Aaron Rodgers, but it is early in the season. I did think it was funny though. Everyone was just crushing Trubisky on social media for, for basically the whole night. And especially in the second half as it got worse and worse. And then in the, in the stadium, the bears fans were booing really from the second quarter on, and we're just getting more and more frustrated and just could not hide their disgust with what was happening. It was just nice to see sports fans being sports fans again. I was really worried after this Andrew Luck thing that if a moment like Mitch Trubisky, we would just

have to greet in silence and be like, well, wait, don't hurt Mitch's feelings. He's a human being like us. Be careful. Athletes have feelings too. Don't say anything. Don't say anything to him. You wouldn't want someone to say to you. But no, people actually booed and acted like fans and I enjoyed it. I don't know where this leaves the Chicago season, but I can't imagine how devastated the Bears fans were. Here they are all season worrying about their fucking kicker. And oh my God, they brought in nine kickers, came down to two. They brought in a third guy. That guy won it. He comes in in the first quarter, has a 38 yard field goal. It's like the most tense zero, zero field goal I've ever seen in my life. The crowd is like on pins

and needles. It goes through. Everybody goes nuts. Everyone was so worried about the kicker. And meanwhile, their quarterback looks like he got worse. And if you remember the playoff game last year, he was really awful for three quarters. Right?

Remember that, Kyle? I remember that. And then the fourth quarter, he heated up. It went into the Mitch microwave and kind of throwing darts. The weird thing about him, he does when he sets his feet and he gets, digs in the throw, you kind of know before you see where the ball's going,

if it's going to be a good throw or not. He'll have the lazy throw where he just sails the ball or throws it to the other team. He's known to do that. But when he actually steps into it, it's pretty nice. I don't really understand anything that they did offensively tonight. I don't know why they weren't moving him around. He's such a devastatingly good athlete and they didn't take advantage of that at all. I don't know why they weren't just a little more conservative with and trying to establish the running backs, especially Montgomery.

I don't understand why he didn't play more. But even the first play of the game, they come out, they get all the momentum from a stop against Green Bay, and then first play, they start out in a wildcat and Al Michaels is all excited. Then it turns not

to be a wildcat. And then the play they eventually call is Tariq Cohen in motion, and Trubisky gets it and pitches it to him. And the problem was Tariq Cohen was a foot and a half away from him, and he pitched it to him, and it hit him in the shoulder pads and was almost a fumble. And it's like, just hand the ball off to Montgomery. Why are you making this so hard? What are you doing?

Mitch Trubisky's your quarterback. What are you doing these high-risk, weird formations and all that stuff? Just hand the ball off and occasionally do play action and roll them out. And this isn't rocket science. Oh, it was frustrating. And I really regret putting money on Mitch Trubisky in week one, coming off really no preseason snaps and a lot of hype. Going forward, all right, so who do we like in that at MC North? I like the Bears a lot less. Not ready to give up on them, but that was pretty discouraging. And I am worried about that Denver game next week. Packers liked what I saw.

Not sure about the running game, although Chicago's D is so good. Who knows? Let's yeah, let's, let's see that next week. Chicago's D is a fantasy defense is looking good. It's our fantasy defense. Yeah. Five sacks tonight. It's looking good. I have them in a, in another league as well.

And, uh, and that was really it. It was a really awful game. But here's the thing, and I want you to listen closely, America. This is what happens when you say you don't need the Patriots. This is what happens to all of you.

You're tired of the Patriots. Tired of seeing them in the Super Bowl. Tired of watching them win. You're tired of Belichick. You're tired of seeing them in the Super Bowl, tired of watching them win, you're tired of Belichick, you're tired of Brady. The league realizes you're kind of tired of all of it, so they say, all right, enough with this Patriots thing.

We're not going to put the Patriots as the Thursday night, the Super Bowl champ slot. We're not going to do it this year. You're not going to get Tom Brady. You're not going to get the best quarterback of all time. You know who you're going to get? Mitch fucking Trubisky. Enjoy it. Enjoy it, America.

So here's what happens. Mitch scores three points and repeatedly throws the ball to the other team. And the other team keeps dropping it. And that was your Thursday night. You deserve it, America. Sunday night, you get some real football because you get the New England Patriots.

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We did this back in 2016. We did it intermittently in 17 and 18. Now, House, what time is it right now? It's time for Friday rolling. We're doing this. So last year I was having fun. I gave myself a million dollar budget of fake ringer money for picks every week.

I think during the playoffs and I actually really enjoyed it. I'm going to do this now during the season on the third podcast of the week, which will usually go up overnight Thursday night heading into Friday. House is going to be my conciliary. We'll see how long he lasts. I might fire you as my conciliary during the season. We'll see how you do. But before we do that, let's talk about this Antonio Brown thing. Cause I have a couple of thoughts coming out of the gate

one is this was the real yeah yeah I have some thoughts this is one of the rare trades that was just terrible for everybody because for Pittsburgh they took a big cap hit just getting rid of him remember I think it was like something like 20 million or something

for just to get him away from them and for the Raiders to give up a third and a fifth added him in thought he was going to be the missing piece. And now he has just hijacked year two of this John Gruden campaign where they had all these draft picks and it was supposed to be this feel good last rebuild season before they moved to Vegas and officially exploded. And it's just bad all the way around. There's no winners.

Is there a winner in this whole thing other than the people in a fantasy league who didn't draft Antonio Brown? I guess those are the only winners, right? Well, I'm counting on us being winners as well. I mean, there's some gambling angles here that are presented by this situation that we ought to be able to take advantage of i like how you're thinking it is it is kind of stunning though the level of self sabotage i mean the nfl of recent vintage has featured the wide receiver diva is there a bigger diva in in any professional sport than the wide receiver position in the NFL?

No. That's why they call them Divas. The Chad Johnson, the Odell Beckham, the Terrell Owens. I mean, what a tradition of Divas. Yeah. But nobody, I don't think, has shot themselves in the foot in this manner. I mean, the dude from the Giants literally shot himself in the foot in this manner. I mean, the dude from the Giants literally shot himself in the leg, but he wasn't really diva status. I think Terrell came pretty close with how the Philly thing ended.

He really, he, I think people forget. This was the biggest reason why I thought him being in the Hall of Fame was at least debatable because he really sabotaged his way out of a couple of different situations. And I think the Brown thing, this is the, I think you're right though. This is the worst self-sabotage we've seen, but it's behavior has been so erratic. It almost makes me wonder if there's something worse going on and it's, it's hard not to default to that.

When you see football players with all the, all the knowledge we all the knowledge we have about how bad repeated hits to the head are. And then you see somebody who has just been all over the map and he's been all over the map really since last year. He didn't play in their biggest game of the season for Pittsburgh. He sat out. It was basically a do or die game. The odds were a little stacked against them, but they needed him. He didn't play. And really, so this dates back to December. And there's probably other stuff we don't even know about. The other thing that kind of validates this observation that you're making, this mistake that he made with the cryotherapy, like a person in his right mind, that's not a casual mistake for a professional athlete. Whose livelihood depends on his feet working and not just working, but like his entire success proposition starts there. And he made that mistake. So Adam Schefter did something today in a tweet that I thought was really notable.

He said, here's a tweet he did out of the many. He reported that this thing had happened in the first place. Raiders GM Mike Mayock has a strong opinionated personality, as anyone who has watched him knows. Wide receiver Antonio Brown is his own man. It created a combustible combination, to say the least. So last decade, Carollo always used to have this joke about if you say somebody's name twice,

that usually means they're a huge pain in the ass. So if you're like, how's Kyle doing? And I said, ah, you know, Kyle's Kyle. Like instantly,

you know, like he's fucked up in some way. Yeah. And this was the old Manny Ramirez thing, right? When they would talk about Manny, I was like, ah,

it's Manny being Manny. It's like, what's going on with Manny? Ah, you know, Manny's Manny. This now, this tweet about Antonio Brown, he's his own man. That's a whole other level. I mean, I really respect that. He's his own man, his own crazy man, his own lunatic of a man, his own defiant shooting his career in the foot kind of man. I just thought that was funny.

It was kind of a moment. But this is kind of where we live in now, where everyone is so afraid to criticize professional athletes. And in this case, like nobody really you don't there's no other choice. You have to criticize him for this behavior it is completely erratic and and uh you know indicative of somebody that doesn't have the the group around him to help him think through things there are judgment calls being made every judgment is the wrong judgment he seems to be completely out of touch with uh the importance of his public persona yeah here i mean every aspect of this from the minute he signed on

well not the minute because the first five minutes was a love fest but really since he froze his feet maybe he froze his brain too i mean maybe that happened froze his feet he Maybe he froze his brain too. I mean, maybe that happened. Froze his feet. He came in, he actually sat in my office with me and his new like manager person back before the trade happened. And we took a picture and people thought we were doing a podcast. I actually thought we were going to do one at some point, but you know, something happened. But talking to him for an hour, I got to't, I didn't feel like he was like crazy. I felt like he was really passionate. It seemed like he was smart. It seemed like, uh, you know, I actually kind of liked talking to him. I gotta say, I did not get the sense that this was somebody who was completely unhinged. I do think he's a really proud guy.

That was one thing that came across in the conversation. But at the same time, he was with this manager that he had, or I guess it was his manager. It was whoever was running his life. And he told us the story how they met. And it was he had met the person at the Super Bowl, at this year's Super Bowl. And they had met at some party and hit it off. And a week later, the guy was moving to LA to be his manager.

And that was how we met him. And it was one of those things where you're like, well, that's weird. I've never heard a story like that. That seems odd. But that was the only really thing that made me pause. But he talked, I don't want to betray some of the stuff we talked about, because he talked a lot about the Steeler stuff and stuff like that, but he did seem like somebody who really wanted a fresh start. Who's really tired of being in Pittsburgh and had issues with

different teammates and things like that. And was really ready to embrace this Oakland thing. And I'm kind of shocked that it fell apart so quickly. It doesn't seem like he's going to ever play a game for them. I agree with this. In fact, Oakland's season win total odds are off the board. Vegas pulled them off the board. So, I mean, you know, Vegas agrees with this idea that Antonio Brown is out of the mix. And I guess we'll see whatever it is that Oakland can salvage in return. They have to figure out a trade, right? They can't just outright release him.

I think they might actually be better off suspending him so that they don't get hit with the cap for him. I think is maybe a better way to play it. Oh, so if they suspend him. Right, so he doesn't count on the 53 man roster right if he's suspended and that has the effect of avoiding avoids a lot of financial stuff yeah and i think with the amount of money he makes it would be hard to trade him anyway and also so have you seen the way he's acting for him what other team is watching this going hey man we should get in on this guy he seems fine let's grab him well look i mean the the depths of what

nfl teams are willing to go to to pull in talent they they all think that they can you know be different for a guy well there's only one there's really only one owner that would absolutely say fuck it let's get him and we both know who that is. It's Mr. Jerry Jones. Of course. He would look at this and go, look, he's like, does the Mark McGuire. I'm not here to talk about the past. I'm here to talk about a guy who's a hall of fame receiver. Who's going to make our team better. I could see him doing it. A couple of my Pat's friends were like, AB question mark. And I'm thinking like, no, no, no chance. No, we're going to make the Super Bowl again. Please, though.

No, no way. I do love where you're going, though. This Dallas thing. Let's look up the Dallas win total right now. Yeah. Over nine is available at minus 110. Oh. I had them.

I had them at nine and seven. I picked the push for them. The thing is, he actually might submarine the total. The next thing I wanted to ask you about this Antonio Brown thing. It's kind of incredible he's not on the Redskins. What happened there? This would have been the ultimate Redskins story, right? I can't believe he's not on your team.

Out of all the things, this is exactly... I will say this. In the last handful of years, there have been serial mismanagement of very important players for the Deadskins. But the Alex Smith trade had a logic, and I don't really disagree with that logic. Not signing Kirk Cousins had a logic. I think that was pretty sound. I think ultimately the Deadskins decision-making around just trying to get Kirk Cousins out on one-year arrangements is going to be borne out.

And staying away from big-ticket, big big personality, free agents has kind of been the order of the day. They took a flyer on Adrian Peterson last year. Yeah. It seems like there's some kind of reasonable decision-making going on in Washington. That's as far as... This is too long on the Redskins, by the way.

The Redskins are going to suck again. Well, I'm done. Stop. Oh, they're going to be terrible. I've already bet on the under six and a half. Did you really? Oh, yeah. I bet that in June.

The first time that there was news about Trent Williams not coming out and playing, not showing up, I immediately hammered the under. Because they've since ratcheted that down. It's now to bet Washington's under. Oh, look at this. It's minus 240 now. And I got it at minus 145. Well, it can go under six and a half. You bet against your own team and you're going to hell.

The Washington Redskins are 10-point favorites. I'm sorry, 10-point underdogs this weekend against the Eagles of Philadelphia. It's our only double-digit line. We don't usually have double-digit lines in week one, and there is a little buzz on the old Deadskins defense, so I was surprised to hear that. But you're right.

They can't block. Is it Case Keenum? Have you talked yourself into Case Keenum yet? A little bit? Well, I mean, I talked talked myself into him in the sense that he is the quarterback of the dead skins oh okay i haven't gone any further than that i've recognized that fact well bringing it back to the raiders i was already all in last week i did the overrunners with sal and did a big raiders rant about i just look i did this last year too i just

don't think john gruden should be an NFL head coach anymore. This whole thing is ludicrous. They have Mike Mayock as their GM now, which he handled this AB thing great. Always good to go after publicly your wide receiver who might fly off the handle

at any time. What were the odds that was going to go badly? Do you think he was like, hey, I'm thinking about doing an Instagram post, posting my letter to Antonio Brown. Nobody in his life's like, no, why are you doing that? Definitely don't do that. He will feel antagonized.

No. But anyway, I didn't. It's stunning. I didn't like them last week. I like them less now. I laughed two days ago at my fantasy draft when there was an Antonio Brown bidding. I thought it was going to end up at like, you know, 15, 16 bucks.

It kept going and it was going higher and it kept going. I think it ended up at like 31 or 32. And we were all laughing. We were like, whoa, you might have ruined your team. Now I'm the same person who bid $48 for Nick Chubb. You know why? You know why? Because I had a Nick

Chubb in my pants. I just fucking love that guy. I wanted him. Yeah, you did. I wanted him. I think he can win the rushing title. But anyway, I didn't like them last week. I like them less now and that that allows us to pivot

to a game that they're involved in which is happening on a Monday night. It's the second Monday night game which I've adored forever because it starts at

Jesus, it starts at 10.15 ET. Yeah. So, it usually ends around 1.30, 1-45 ET, which I just love. It's always like a weird announcing crew.

It's always the Raiders or the Niners or some terrible West Coast team. Always seems to be the home team. And, oh, the line moved to three. You dicks. It was two like an hour ago so what why do you care I like this

you don't need the line one of my million dollar picks even before Antonio Brown lost his mind was I couldn't believe the Broncos line the Broncos it was like pick them basically since the lines since I saw the lines I'm not I pick them basically since the lines, since I saw the lines. I'm not, I'd never look at the lines until

I do guess the lines with Sal. I guess they decided he was worth three points. I personally think the Broncos should have been three point favorites to begin with. Sal and I both like them as a sleeper. I think their defense is going to be excellent.

I'm not afraid of Flacco because I don't, I really don't think he's going to be that involved. I think their defense is going to be excellent. I'm not afraid of Flacco because I really don't think he's going to be that involved. I think they're going to just be a run the ball, control the clock, throw it way down the field every once in a while, and then let the defense take over team. Bradley Chubb has a chance to be one of the two or three dominant AFC guys. They already have Von Miller. And I just feel like they have an identity. Vic Fangio coming in there, getting the belated chance, has a little bit of like a Mike Zimmer type of feel to it. And I just love the idea of them destroying the Raiders on Monday night.

House, talk me out of this. I'm not going to talk you out of it. I agree with this idea of Denver going in and whipping the living daylights out of Oakland. But I don't like why lay juice? Why not? And this is famous last word shit right here. Why not cash in on the chaos with a with a cash in on the chaos parlay, Bill Simmons? I have two teams this week and and and i'll acknowledge

right up front this is running against a uh trend of yours that you've you've been touting for some uh number of years so much so that the action network folks took recognition of it gave you credit for this yeah you want to play on home underdogs in the first few weeks of the season, I'm about to put together a parlay that runs absolutely contradictory encounter to that with my cash in on the chaos parlay. Well, wait a second. Let's give those numbers really quick. John Ewing on the Action Network, he researched this and I was surprised to find out that home dogs actually have not been that successful since 2003. They're 49% against the spread. I was stunned. I don't know why I thought that was going to be better, but what is true is what we said on the pod. Weeks one through four

since 2003, 155 and 124 versus 124 against the spread. 31 games over 500. It's about 56% against the spread. And then after that, it dips. And the home dogs are actually 47% the rest of the way since 2003. So that jibes with what we remember where seven weeks in,

the home dogs always seem to be like 20 and 13, 21 and 12 whatever so anyway go ahead well and and just to drive the point home 56 success rate is a huge advantage a hundred dollars on on on all of those games gives you a return of two over 2400 dollars wow you did one of those games at 100 bucks 2400 two over twenty four hundred dollars well you did one of those games at a hundred bucks twenty four hundred dollars that's lighting the that that's preparing the bankroll to get things done now uh having recognized all of that i am absolutely going into the square camp on the miami dolphins i I have watched the chaos of the last two weeks

along with everybody else. There might be a sharp angle on the Dolphins. I don't know what it is. Maybe it'll show itself eventually, but I feel like there's an opportunity here early in the season to take advantage of these franchises that are in disarray, self-sabotaging, trying to just poop all over themselves right out of the gate.

The cash in on the chaos parlay, if you put the Baltimore Ravens at minus 310 on the money line, along with the Denver Broncos at minus 150 on the money line. That pays off at plus 120, Bill Simmons. So you don't have to lay juice on the three points with Denver. All you want out of Denver is a W. And I like my chances of Baltimore going down to Miami, starting off the season on the right foot. I can't come up with a scenario where the Miami Dolphins beat the Baltimore Ravens. That parlay pays off a plus 120. Why don't we start building some bankroll, Bill? What do you have for the Broncos money line? Minus 150.

Minus 150. Yeah, that's pretty good. So I looked up. I don't think this is always the case, but you think about last year. We knew the Cardinals weren't going to be good last year. And we knew the Raiders weren't going to be good. At least I felt very passionately that the Raiders weren't going to be good, especially after they made the Khalil Mack trade.

The Raiders lost by 20 on opening night to the Rams at home. The Cardinals lost 24 to6 to your beloved Redskins so that happened yeah so the worst teams in the league Arizona was 3-13 Oakland was in a three-way tie for 4-12 the other two worst teams were the Jets

and the 49ers who had their quarterback get injured so that's not totally fair but we knew the Jets probably weren't going to be, the Jets killed the Lions in week one. So maybe this doesn't always work, but I think it's a good indicator. If you're going to suck,

you getting blown out in week one is usually a good litmus test for you. Oh yeah, we actually do suck. Here we are. We're going to throw shit at our fans right now. We're down 20 in week one. I'm with you on the Ravens-Dolphins. I've been eyeing that money line as well.

Now, can we talk about why we might not want to trust the Ravens yet? Go ahead. The Lamar bandwagon is out of control. And I say this as somebody who has him in both of his fantasy leagues. There was enough buzz about the running passing combo and the people they put and the young receivers they have. Have you read about these young receivers? Hollywood Brown, Miles Boykin.

And there's all these articles like we're going to know each other. This is the first game of the, this is going to be us for the next decade. Like there's a real camaraderie with those guys and then they just have a bunch of running backs and they're just going to pound the ball and do play action

and I think it's going to be intriguing I'm with you I like that minus 310 in the first game you might have talked me into it House I mean it could be a fun parlay you don't have to lay juice on the points with Denver. Yeah.

We're going to take a break and coming back, I'm going to tell you what I'm looking at and you can, I'll bounce it off of you. Let's talk about fantasy really quickly. I'm teaming up with FanDuel to give you a chance to play fantasy football against me, Sal, and the Trifecta. We did invite House. The best part, the winner gets to fly out to Puerto Rico to be our official correspondent

for FanDuel's World Fantasy Football Championship Live Finals. You get an all expenses paid trip to enjoy four days worth of WFFC events in Puerto Rico. You get to be a part of all the action. Go to FanDuel.com slash ringer to enter and draft your week one fantasy team for the games kickoff on Sunday. I don't want to spoil who's in my lineup, but considering I'm somebody who

spent $48 on Nick Chubb in my fantasy league, you might be able to guess who's involved, but I will tell you my lineup on Sunday night when we're doing the pod with Sal. Come in and try to kick our ass. Guess what? You won't. You can play against B. Sal and the trifecta in the Ringer Listener League on FanDuel.

Go to fanduel.com slash ringer to enter now. And we didn't invite house. Okay. For the most part, I wanted to do single bets because there's so much flux. Exotics always lose. Well, there's so much flux. Exotics always lose. Well, there's so much flux in week one. I really only want to do I bet my life on this kind of teases.

So a couple of teams that look like obvious teaser candidates. The Bengals are nine punt underdogs in Seattle and rightly so. You know, I think we all think Cincinnati has a chance to be one of the worst teams in the league. I like Seattle's defense.

You know Clowney's going to come out the first couple games and be great. Then God knows what will happen after that. The Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, they have a whole full year with that. I thought Chris Carson was really good the second half of last year. And that feels like they should win handily and we should come out of that game going,

oh yeah, look out for Seattle. There's actually two contenders in the NFC West and everybody overreact. Do you feel that way about that game too or am I the only one here? No, I looked at the Bengals in Seattle as a potential addition to this parlay, but the money line is insane. Seattle is minus 440 in that game. So I left that alone. But what's the scenario under which Cincinnati makes this competitive?

Like, how do they lose by less than two scores? I can't articulate it. So the other way to think about it is the six and a half point tees, which pays a little bit more. I think you're paying 130 for 100. A little more of a vague. So you win 100 if you win.

If you lose, it's 130. But if you do the six and a half point tease, you get Seattle down to two and a half, so they only have to win by a field goal. And then you get the Ravens basically to a pick them. And I thought, because they're at minus seven, so you tease that down to a pick them. And I thought, cause they're at minus seven. So he tees that down to a half point. I'm trying to think how you lose that one.

I played it out in my head. It's if Seattle has one of those weird games or like they missing it, you know, Seattle will miss an extra point. Something goofy will happen. And they're up nine. They're one of those teams that for some reason will be up nine or 12. And you're like, oh no. They're dominating this game and they might

not cover because something weird happened. That would be the only scenario I'd be worried about. I think those two are both tease candidates. We should talk about Dallas really quickly only because we know Zeke's definitely coming back. And that line has not really budged from

seven and a half. Giants at Cowboys. Does anybody think the Giants are going to be good? Other than the residue of Giants, Cowboys, those two teams having a history of especially Eli going against the Cowboys of occasionally getting frisky. It seems like that's the only thing people are afraid of. Didn't you think that line was going to be higher or was it just of. Didn't you think that line was going to be higher, or was it just me? I did not think that line was going to be higher, mainly because of all of the analytics that talk about

within-division opponents. And those games historically tend to be less than two-score kind of games. I don't know what the percentage is. We need John Ewing for this, but the hook is the difference. Seven points, I might lay the seven. Seven and a half, I'm definitely not laying seven and a half. There's a lot of unknowns with the integration of Zeke into the offense

and what are we going to see out of Dak right away. I feel like there's enough kind of unknowns and the known quantity. Eli's had a lot of good games in Dallas. I know. Well, that's the fear. Yeah. So you see him chucking the ball around.

That feels like a stay-away game to me. I don't like the hook at all. So your biggest contention with the Giants is that a guy who's been washed up for three years might come back to haunt you. That's your case. It's the best I can do.

Plus, it's just Giants, Cowboys, in Dallas. Stuff happens. Stuff happens. Stuff happens. Stuff happens like on a bachelor party? No, like the Giants

self-sabotaged. They lost a game in the last couple years because of some stupid set of decision-making with the last position they had in the fourth quarter. It does get funky. So I'll just tell you what I'm staying away from.

I have no feel for that Falcons-Vikings game. I'm staying away. The Eagles-Redskins line is too high. I don't, I just, I'm staying away. Bills-Jets, who the fuck knows what's going to happen to those two teams. I'm staying away. KC-ville, that's one of those I want to watch that game really closely. And I feel like we can learn some real things from it. I do like the Jacksonville plus three

and a half. I think it's a tiny bit tasty. So many people on the Chiefs bandwagon, Jags have been brushed to the side, Big Dick Nick, all that stuff. But I wouldn't bet on it. For me, that's a stay away. That's one of the games I do like, and that's one of the home dogs that I think is especially frisky. They look a little tasty.

Kansas City kicked the Jaguars' ass last year, but it was Patrick Mahomes' worst game of the season. He didn't throw a touchdown pass and he threw two picks and he had the lowest passer rating of his entire career in that game. I have it written down. I don't think I'm going to do

anything with it. The Browns, Titans, I've been looking at only because I do think the ground is being paved for a giant Browns week one win. Everybody's fantasy guys do well. Everybody's super happy about it.

And they get everybody's hopes up that they're a real contender. And then the wheels come off the following week at the Jets game. I posited this to Sal and I liked it and I've kind of been sticking to it. So I wouldn't put them in a tease though. That to me is more like a, you bet the straight up with the over kind of parlay. The over for that game is 45. So maybe even you tease that with the over and you're just like,

I'm going all in on the Browns putting up 30 plus on Tennessee. Get knee over, something like that. I think the crowd's going to be crazy. I'm excited for that game. Rams, Panthers, we'll come back to. Mention Seahawks, Bengals. Colts, Chargers, we'll come back to. Niners, Bucs. I'd really like the Bucs pick them at home.

And I don't understand that line and I don't understand why, what makes anybody think San Francisco's better than Tampa? Realistically, they both stink. But I think Tampa has a better chance to be at least half decent and throw the ball around. I mean, if you're in a fantasy draft this week, the Tampa guys, you know, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Mike Evans was a $40 guy in my league.

Chris Godwin went for $20. So people think they're going to throw the ball. I don't know if anyone totally trusts Jameis, but I don't feel as confident about the Niners. The Jimmy G preseason thing was just reprehensible. You got to show me something

with that. Detroit, Arizona, that line is like, it jumped out at me as suspicious. Detroit's minus two and a half and yet I can't make a case for Arizona because it doesn't seem like they're going to be able to block that coach might be overmatched

and to me that's just a pure stay away and then Pat Steelers I think is a stay away and I think Texan Saints is a stay away that line six and a half Saints Saints weird shit happens to them early in the season. You saw it last year. They lost to Tampa 48 to 40 in week one.

I don't trust them in the first couple weeks. I think that's a team you just kind of have to wait a couple weeks and come back to. Any of those games that I'm skipping over jump out to you as something you thought was a little tasty? The only one is Detroit at Arizona. And again, I don't like, uh, taking, uh, uh, going against a home dog. Um, but I am, have been either. It's the case that Kingsbury is an absolute genius and what Arizona was doing has been a total rope-a-dope with the preseason.

Yeah. Or they are as atrocious and disorganized on the offensive side of the ball as they appeared. And they might not score this weekend. And, you know, this kid, Murray, might end up on the bench after week one because that one because they don't want to put him in a bad situation see i i'm leaning more toward they might be a disorganized disaster and kyler because of what happened with my homes last

year and people just want that to happen again and my homes might have been like a generational fluke and the idea of just somebody else coming in and be like, whoa, he's slinging it around. This guy's having fun out there. I think he's going to be good, but new coach. We know nothing about the offensive line. The receiving core, it's basically Kirk, who was a fantasy sleeper,

who then was not even asleep by the time everyone had their drafts. And then Fitzgerald who's, you know, in his mid thirties at this point. And that's really it. So I, I think that it's more likely for them to get blown out,

but here's the problem. Do you really want to bet on Matt Patricia and Matt Stafford? Right. And that is the issue. The lions on the road. I like that. Yeah. All right.

Here's what I'm thinking, House. I really like the Rams minus two. Huh. I think they are strangely undervalued. They made the Super Bowl last year, and really if a couple plays had gone differently, I think they could have won. they made the Super Bowl last year, and really if a couple plays had gone differently, I think they could have won.

People seem to be nitpicking in a lot of different ways with them that I don't totally understand. The offense that we remember the last six to eight weeks of last season is not the offense they have now. Todd Gurley wasn't healthy down the stretch last season. It seems like he's been cleared. They have a real backup, Daryl Henderson,

who really could not only give them change of pace stuff, but also like the guy who catches the ball out of the backfield. And Cooper Cupp's back. They have weapons again. I think it's more realistic that they would blow out the Panthers and put up like 40. Then to me,

the Panthers actually playing well and winning. I'm not sold in the Panthers at all. I think they're in a weird position. There's been some articles written about how they're, it's kind of like a make or break season for this whole regime. Maybe even for Cam, they have a new owner in there and they're, you know, it's kind of the end of this old cam Keekly era. And then whatever this next decade is going to be for them. And I'm just not sold on them. Some people like them as sleepers. It seems like a pretty polarizing team.

I believe in this Rams team. And if you're going to believe in this Rams team, this is a game they have to win favored by less than a field goal in Carolina, a team that I don't think is going to make the playoffs. So how do I not take the points there? This one feels like a stay away in the same way that you have the Jags and the Chiefs sort of set aside so you can just see what what goes on. My counsel on this one would be let's just sort of take under advisement what's happening here. I don't like the trend of Super Bowl losers who come in to the following season. There isn't a great recent track record, Atlanta being the most recent example of this. I also don't like going against the Panthers at home as a home underdog. 6-2 in their last eight games.

They also have a good record, the Panthers, against non-division opponents. They're 12-2 against the spread when they're not favored. Yeah. So there's just some trend things about the Panthers that rub me the wrong way. I would prefer to sit tight and just see who shows up with this Rams team. Okay, I heard you. I listened to you, and we're betting on the Rams, so mark them down. Ignoring your advice. That's fine.

It won't be my fault. No, it won't be your fault. Second one, my Colts. I got to back them in week one. Been talking about them for two weeks. There's some stuff I love about this game. One is that I still feel like people don't think they're going to be good. I even saw a piece on, I think it was The Athletic. They had the 20 predictions of the year,

and one of them was who do you think is going to be the surprise team, and not one person picked the Colts, which makes me like them even more as a surprise team. I think people have just kind of shoved them to the side. I don't know who people think is going to win this division. Everybody seems to just love Houston and be all in on Houston, who is the classic inmates running the asylum front office. We have the coach just doing whatever the hell he wants. Duke Johnson

and running back. I'm not saying they're not going to win the division, but I just don't think they're a lock. I just like the Colts. They're getting six and a half. They're in LA in that weird Chargers stadium, 30,000 people. You have no Melvin Gordon, save Austin Eckler, Justin Jackson as your running backs. And I don't know, there's a lot of people who like the Chargers just as a contender. I kind of feel like I don't see how they're better than they were last season. Do you see a situation where they're better than they were last season? No, but they were really effing good last season. Yeah. I mean, and then they got killed. But that's a matchup, you know, uh, that's a, that's one of those things.

Two other things. Over the balance of the season, they were a good team all season long. Sure. And that was a year ago. And things change in football. And we see it every year. They're also missing their left tackle, Russell Okung.

And then I have Derwin James, who everybody says is their best defensive player. Everybody. So they're missing two of their key guys. And for some reason, the line is six and a half. That's really high. I feel like I'm getting at least two and a half that's really high i feel like i'm getting

at least two and a half free points here well here's part of what vegas knows about the chargers notwithstanding the fact that the chargers have lost their season opener each of the previous three seasons they own the afc south they beat the daylights out of the AFC South. They're 29-5-1 against the spread since 2002. They are 7-2 against the spread against the Colts. And there is also this trend line, and I gotta give a shout out to

my boy Big Al, hooking me up with the insider info. Big Al McMorty. BigAl.com. NFL teams favored between six and seven points in week one that won a playoff game the previous year have gone 12-0 straight up since 2006 and 30-4 straight up since 1981. Those are powerful numbers, Bill Simmons.

How many of those teams didn't have their left tackle and their best defensive player in week one? I don't know. I mean, all I do is look at the trends sometimes with these things. I just want to share with you some of the other considerations. So here's one of the things. If I'm getting points like this, a couple things I love is can the team actually win the game potentially? I love is can the team actually win the game?

Potentially. I think the Colts could actually win the game. And did I, do I still feel like I'm getting free points? I just think the line should be chargers by four. So I know I'm getting two and a half points of value in this. I like Jacoby Brissett. I don't think he's bad.

I don't, I think he can go on the road and, and not make mistakes. Kyle. Yeah. You also love Jacoby Brissett. Yes, I absolutely do. I think he can go on the road and not make mistakes Kyle you also love Jacoby Brissett 6.5 points we'll be watching this Sunday in the back

Kyle agrees with me I don't care if you don't agree with me I'd like to be on the record I love the Colts this season I am putting in a future wager on them to make the playoffs I am putting in a future wager on them to make the playoffs. I am putting in a future wager on them to win the AFC South, and I'm putting in a future wager on them to hit the over on their seven and a half win total. So I'm bullish on the Colts. I just think that a touchdown, the Chargers winning by a touchdown at home in game one is possible. That's all. I mean, I personally wouldn't touch this game, but I just wanted to share with you the considerations. That's all.

That's very fair. All right. The other one I'm looking at, well, two versions of this, right? Broncos minus three. And then a parlay. Broncos minus 150. Seahawks minus 440. And then the Ravens minus 310. What do you think that nets out to us?

Hold on. It's got to be a little bit better plus 171 wow yeah and what if you add the Ravens into that I have it at Broncos Seahawks Ravens yeah plus 171 that takes the one that that the cash in on the chaos, which is plus 120 all the way up to plus 171. Yeah. I mean, I I kind of love this. So here's what I'm going to do.

I'm putting 300 K on the Rams minus two. I'm putting 300 K in the Colts plus six and a half. I'm putting 300K in the Colts plus 6.5. I'm putting 200K in the Broncos minus 3. And then I am putting 200K on Broncos minus 150, Seahawks minus 440, Ravens minus 310 at plus 171.

So that would win $342,000. What do you think of that? I love the parlay. The parlay is the one. I've voiced my concerns on the other ones. Not strongly held convictions, mind you. I just wanted to share considerations.

You heard them. My question to you, I like what you've done. Why share considerations you heard them my question to you I like what you've done why aren't you doing anything on the Patriots this week Kyle scary I don't know I just want to enjoy the game it's been so long I'm a little worried about uh I don't love the line okay I think they I think they jacked the line. I'm afraid of the Steelers team in this respect. I think they're undervalued. So the Pats, they're five and a half, basically.

And I think the line should be like four. I think the Steelers are the third best team in the AFC, and they're not being treated with the proper respect with that line. That's why the pit, the Patriots have never lost to Pittsburgh in Foxborough with Tom Brady at quarterback. I'm well aware. Once ever. I'm well aware.

And you, you also know, are you aware that, that defending Superbowl champs in week one, when they opened the season at home and aren't favored by six and a half points or more, have won 85%, have covered the spread 85% of the time? So you're saying I should sprinkle some on the Pats? Like a touch. Like a touch. You know what I mean?

All right. All right. These are the final bets then. So I'm gonna These are the final bets then So I'm gonna do 250k On the Rams minus 2 250k on the Colts Plus 6.5 200k on the Broncos Minus 3

200k On the Broncos minus 150 Seahawks minus 440 Ravens minus 310 at plus 171. And then that leaves me a little bit of room there for 100K on the Pats minus 5.5. Bet on your home team. Bet on your team.

They're the Super Bowl effing defending champs. Sprinkle a little. We'll see how it goes. You had a two-part fairway roll on this week, a farewell to the golf season? We had to put a nice bow on the season. It was an incredible golf season this year. We had

my man Alex Myers from Golf Digest part one, and then we got together with our ringer homies Chris Vernon and Megan Schuster. The Megan Schuster segment especially, it was an unbelievable year part one and then we got together with our ringer homies chris vernon and megan schuster the megan schuster segment especially it was an unbelievable year in golf social oh social media the guys really got smart phil mickelson is you we need to have him on the on the bs podcast i want to get him on fairway rolling he's a effing tour de force everything Everything that he was unable to do on the golf course, he made up for 15-fold in social media.

I can't get enough of Phil Mickelson on the Twitter and the Instagram. House, a pleasure as always. Thanks for being on Friday Rolling. It's back, baby. It's a tradition unlike any other. All right, we are about to do the world premiere of Mallory's Most Intriguing. But first, I wanted to tell you about CBS Sports HQ,

the brand new streaming sports news network, live 24-7, costs you nothing. Sports coverage that's always on, it's always free. It's focused on the game. Tons of highlights, breaking news coverage as it happens, fantasy advice, and something we care very deeply here at the BS Podcast, as you just heard. Gambling picks and analysis. To get that extra edge, I'm a three-decade-long fantasy gambling guy, maybe even longer. It's not easy. When I turn on CBS Sports HQ, I'll see the tips and trends I need to win my bets.

Have it on in the background. You just put it up. Right now I'm doing a podcast. It's on in the background. Yeah, it's that easy. Download the CBS Sports app on your phone, Apple TV, Roku, Fire TV, or other connected device, whatever you have at any time. And you can watch no fake debates, just sports for real fans at the great price of, oh, it's completely free.

Oh, and they have Noah Kozloff too sometimes. You don't even have to log in or sign up for anything. Download the CBS Sports app. Watch CBS Sports HQ today. And since we're here and since she was on the premiere episode we did for the comeback of Rewatchables 1999 on Luminary, let's talk about Luminary really quickly. It's a podcast subscription service with some of the best content around.

That's where we had Break Stuff, the story of Woodstock 1999. That's where we have the Rewatchables 1999, which is back for a little six-episode run here. We started with Eyes Wide Shut this week. They also have a whole bunch of original podcasts, narrative podcasts. The app is free to download. You can listen to all your podcasts on the app, including this one,

music, TV, films, comedy, sports, more. Really, you should check out Woodstock 99 because it was really good. And you should check out the Rewatchables 1999 if you love the Rewatchables. Get your first two months of access to Luminary's premium content for free

when you sign up at luminary.link slash Simmons. After that, it's only $ free when you sign up at luminary.link slash Simmons. After that, it's only $7.99 per month. Luminary.link slash Simmons. Cancel anytime. Terms apply. All right, Mallory Rubin is here. Editor-in-chief of The Ringer starting on October 1st.

Mother of Dragons. Host of Binge Mode, which is returning what day? I don't think we've said a day publicly. We're saying this fall. Sometime this fall. Binge Mode Star Wars. That's right. Big buzz. A lot of excitement. May the pod be with you, Bill. A lot of excitement. We also did a Rewatchables

1999 podcast this week on Eyes Wide Shut. Boy, did we. You showed up in a mask and a gown. It was wonderful. I did. I think some HR violations might have been committed. Yeah. But it was a great pod for all of us. You can find that on Luminary.

Mallory is going to be joining us during the NFL season with a new segment we're calling Mallory's Most Intriguing. An honor and a privilege to be here with you. I asked you to pick five people. Yes. Heading into the football weekend. Yes. That you were the most intrigued by and count them down to five to one. I have not seen the list. I'm just going to react to the list.

Okay. Should we start with number five? Well, should we talk about this assignment first? Let's do it. Because you over-prepare for everything. So what was the preparation time this week? What was the initial list? How many people were on it? Like 30? prepare for everything. So what was the preparation time this week? What was the initial list? How

many people were on it? Like 30? I started with about a dozen and shaved down from there, though. Spoiler alert. There are some combos here. Okay. I figured. I was not able to just keep it to five people, though I did sincerely try. But I think you'll agree that the pairings, they're all, it's in the spirit of the exercise. I think it's within bounds. So Mallory, for those of you listening at home, is probably the number one football fan I know because you are a combo. Most people, especially when they hit late 20s, early 30s range, initially you're in high school, college, coming out of college, you're just watching everything on the weekends.

Then eventually you gravitate to one or the other and you become more of a college guy slash lady or more of an NFL person. I love it all. You've not gravitated. I love it all. You are Saturdays and Sundays. Yeah, I watch less college football than I used to when I covered it as a primary beat, but I can't quit

it even though I've tried. I believe on this very podcast, I boldly declared last year that I was walking away from college football because I was so revolted by it. And while I still struggle with a lot of the aspects of being a college football fan, I find myself there every Saturday, Bill. The biggest games. Watching Alabama Duke, whether I want to or not. You know, watching Oregon Auburn, whether I want to or not. I also, I love the draft. And so now, even when I think about NFL primarily,

I still like to scout college players so that I'm informed come draft time. However, I did not know whether you would want to talk about college football. So I do not have any college football players on this list. You always have the option. It's your list. It could be five of anything. I mean, you say that. I'm going to come in one week with like five characters from his dark materials.

So you better set some parameters. It has to at least be a TV show I'd watch. If you're going to do Noah on The Affair, I'd be ready for it. Oh my God. Can we do an Affair top five at some point? I haven't watched this season yet. I can't wait. You're not missing much.

I want to let a few episodes build up. You know, I want to put myself in the position of the characters. When things build up for them, good stuff tends to happen. They never make any mistakes. I do like the concept of The Affair, which is people can't resist making a terrible mistake that has sex involved. Yeah. Which is basically the whole show. No, for a TV show, I do. That's a great premise. It never gets old. They bring in new characters. It's like, ah, they're going to make a mistake. Ah, that barista's looking at me. Ah, I'm going to do

something dumb. Oh no, now I'm paying the consequences. It is amazing that even though the character perspectives, the primary narrative, the approach, the editing, the sequencing, all of that changes season to season. The essence of it never changes. And that is, we're all fallible, aren't we? We're all weak, aren't we? The heart wants what the heart wants and so do the loins. This season on The Affair.

I'm just glad that even though college football has violated some of the rules you have about humanity, you're able to find comfort in the super clean, squeaky NFL. That's right. The pure viewing experience that I need, I find on Sundays. There's no issues at all going on in the National Football League. So that's a bonus. It's tough to be a football fan. But on the other hand, I love football.

We should mention before you do your list. Yeah. Lamar Jackson is the second most important person slash creature in your life other than your cat Halo. It's true. And if you want to save the Lamar discussion, another spoiler alert for you. I couldn't keep him off the list, Bill. I figured you wouldn't be able to. Try though, I may.

Been waiting to tell you this though, because I haven't told you this. I'm in two fantasy leagues this year. Okay. Because my high school friends wrote me back into being in the league I was in that I just, I left and now I'm back. Okay. I have Lamar in both leagues. Are they single QB leagues or two QB leagues?

Single QB leagues. I support it fully and- I felt like he had the highest upside because it's like, there is a world in which he rushes for 1,200 yards and throws for, I don't know, 3,000 yards. It's conceivable. And if that happens, he's an unbelievable asset.

Bill, let me tell you what world that is. The real world? That world is the 2019 NFL season. That's what's going to happen. It's a lot of points. If you add it up, it's like, oh my God. And then you throw in touchdowns. I think there's a real chance he could be the top scoring fantasy quarterback.

It's very possible. I really do. Yeah. Because even if he is, as a passer, let's say he's a QB2, okay, or a low, low-end QB1, he's going to also be an RB2. And when you combine those, there's just nothing like it. Yeah.

I mean, Michael Vick rushed for 1,000 yards as a quarterback in 2006. That's the list. Lamar's going to do it this year. Guess who was good to have in your fantasy team that year? Michael Vick. Let's say he rushes for 1,100 yards. That's 110 fantasy points right there. Eight more TDs.

Now I'm at another 48. I'm already at 148, 58 points. He throws for 3,000 yards. That's less than 200 a week. Now I'm at another 150. So now I'm over 300. And then any passing touchdown, let's say he throws, his over under, I think was 15 and a half. Let's say he throws for 18. That's 72. Now I'm in like the 350 to 370 range, which would be like the third highest quarterback.

Yeah. That's all realistic to me. Absolutely. The only thing that prevents that obviously is an injury. And that's a real concern, you know, perish the thought obviously, but given the number of hits that he takes and the frame that he has, you have to at least think about it. But I think even if you wanted to be conservative and downgrade those passing numbers or account for missing a game here and there to injury or half, I think those rushing numbers that you just said might be low. Yeah.

I really do. I guess he would have to play all 16 to get to 1,200. And there would have to be games where they're just like, we're up 30 to nine. You're not running the ball in the second half. It's one of those things where the narrative has shifted so many times. And if you want to say this is number five on my list, Lamar and Flacco together. All right.

So let's start the list. Let's let's talk about what's most intriguing week one. I really as an exercise in discipline and willpower. Not two of my strengths, as you know. Yeah. I wanted to try to keep Lamar off the list because I know this is going to be a well that I want to return to,

a passion of mine throughout the season. But I just couldn't help it. I just couldn't help it because it is actually the thing that I care about the most. And then when you think about the dual force of the Lamar sophomore debut and Flacco debuting with the Broncos in Oakland before that.

In the last Monday Night Game. That's right. These two, my son and my nemesis, are forever linked. Like for the rest of their career, certainly for the rest of their career, certainly for the rest of the time that Flacco is in the NFL and how long that will be, I think who can say they will be linked because at the end of the day, while it took half a season longer than it should have Baltimore chose Lamar over Flacco.

And now Flacco is on the Broncos. How is Flacco the loser in this whole thing? You got a Superbowl out of him. He's not a loser. He ran his course and then he Immediately got shoved out for Lamar He didn't block Lamar I wouldn't say immediately I wouldn't say immediately

10 games I wouldn't say immediately Lamar's a rookie I wouldn't say immediately I don't think Flacco's not your nemesis To me you are Logan

You're Logan Roy Lamar is Shiv And Joe Flacco is Is poor Kendall Oh You've You've carved up his murder You kicked him in the curb And you sent him to Denver Mars Shiv. And Joe Flacco is poor Kendall. Oh, wow. You've carved up his murder. You kicked him in the curb and you sent him to Denver.

I feel like, weirdly, that was a huge compliment for Flacco. I thought it was for you. It's a huge compliment to be compared to the heroin-using, broken, it took a drug transgression and the murder, manslaughter, if you want to be charitable, to get to this point. But his father wrapped him in his arms and said, you're my number one boy. And that means something. But he didn't mean it. Flacco's not my number one boy, though. I wish him well. Lamar is your number one boy. Lamar's my number one boy. I think that there's a chance that Flacco has an okay season. Me too. Which is a little tough. I do wish him well,

but I think that the fact that anytime Lamar has a bad game and Flacco has a good game, they're always going to be compared to each other. It's just going to be this thing that hangs over the season. I'm married to a Broncos fan, so this is another thing.

Flacco is just still in my life. That's amazing. I have to watch every one of his games. I can't believe it. Week one, Lamar gets the Dolphins. You literally could not hope for a better starting note to the season, a better initial matchup. The Dolphins are a disaster, and that defense is a mess.

And specifically, they have one of the worst pass rushing units in the league, so he's going to have time to get set to see the field to hopefully make good decisions. And they've waved the white flag already. I mean, yeah, they're tanking. The full-on tank. Tanking for Tua. I like when they pretend they're not tanking.

We're not tanking. We want to trade for Jadeveon Clowney. We just couldn't turn down this awesome deal that gives away our best left tackle. The Broncos are opening with the Raiders, who are also a mess. Yeah. Another spoiler alert.

We'll be talking about the Raiders shortly. Great. Opening spoiler alert. We'll be talking about the Raiders shortly. Great. Opening in Oakland. So Flacco's specific, very positive history at mile high. We'll have to wait a little bit of time for that to kick in, but he does have a lot of good history

playing in Denver. You know, the defining play of his career, the 70-yard mile-high miracle, the touchdown pass to Jacoby Jones to win that playoff game. Who was the D-back who fucked that up? Raheem Moore? I think it was.

I think that's who it was. If it wasn't, my apologies to Raheem Moore. I have such a vivid memory of watching that game. Adams stayed in New York and I went to Baltimore. We couldn't watch it together. Oh, that's... It's incredible. I watched it with my dad. Jesus. Yeah, It's just a very special moment in my life. So then you look at who he has

on the team, the skill position players on the Broncos, I think leave a little something to be desired. I mean, how much Emmanuel Sanders has left in the tank, I think is unclear, especially coming off the injury. I actually to Sutton, lady? I actually drafted him in a couple fantasy leagues last year and was pretty high on him. And now I'm like, you fucked me. Prove it. Which is not necessarily a healthy way to assess talent. There's nothing better than fantasy animosity.

Just completely blinds me to whatever the actual reality is. But, you know, the run game with Lindsey and Royce Freeman, strong mid-tier offensive line a case that they could be. Mid-tier offensive line. Yeah, they could run the ball a lot and then put him in play action. He just throws the ball downfield and sometimes people catch it. The other thing is, unlike. Okay, the Joe Flacco offense.

Yes, exactly. Unlike last year where every single week it was like, when is Lamar coming in? They can't do that with Drew Locke because Drew Locke is on the IR. Right, for what, eight weeks? Right, he's got the injury. Yeah. So that buys Flacco some time

that I think will be very beneficial for him for his frame of mind. There was a scenario here where him having to go, and to be clear, Drew Locke is not Lamar Jackson. My husband is also a Missouri grad, so I also had to watch

an astonishing amount of Missouri football and thus Drew drew lock tape. But those questions about when the new era should begin just aren't even going to happen until midway through the season. Now, you factor in the

non-Payton Manning, John Elway quarterback history, and it's like pretty bleak. And Flacco's recent career history is somewhere between mediocre to pretty bleak. So that's not necessarily an ideal combo, but I think he'll be okay. And then you have Fangio coming in, who obviously is not a quarterback guru,

but I think is somebody that everybody thinks will be an instant improvement over Vance Joseph at head coach. So you like the Broncos. I do. You picked them as a playoff team. So I did million-dollar picks for the house, and I had the Ravens in a parlay, and I had the Broncos. I do. You picked them as a playoff team. So I did million-dollar picks with House, and I had the Ravens in a parlay, and I had the Broncos. Right.

So I think there's a world in which everybody wins this week, and maybe there's stories on Tuesday about, isn't that great how this worked out? Lamar gets his team. Yeah. Flacco, a little bit of a rebirth, and then Flacco eventually will turn into Flacco. But I don't think it happens week one.

The Emmanuel Sanders quote that he issued to local media recently, Flacco's a baller, probably one of my favorite quarterbacks of all time. Him and Peyton Manning, they're close. That's the kind of thing where I'm like, this is going to be a disaster by the second quarter of week one. Cause that's actually just not a normal or rational thing to say. Well, he played with like end of his career Peyton Manning though. That is ludicrous. I'm sorry. That's absurd.

Lamar, meanwhile, everything everyone's saying feels right to me. Yeah. Feels good. I also think. It's true love. Well, it's just what's the main difference between year one and year two? It's not just that Flacco is gone and that shadow isn't hanging over. Lamar isn't always going to worry about, oh, are they going to pull me

for RG3 or Trace McSorley? Like, that's not going to happen. Every time he made a mistake last year, it was a chorus of, are they going to turn back to Flacco? So that's gone.

But the main thing in addition to that- He's kind of like a rescue dog, like Olivia. Olivia is wonderful. Every time I leave the house and Olivia looks at me and wonders if I'm ever

coming back, that was Lamar after a bad pick. You're not going to yank me now, right? Now it's his team. Rookie quarterbacks always have to deal with things like that. They're looking to the sideline like, is that it? So there's your confidence.

Did they lose your trust? But what else does he have? He has an entire team that was built around him and for him. The way that they rebuilt the offense, Greg Roman, offensive coordinator now, look at the draft class. Hollywood Brown was their first round pick. I lost my mind when they picked him, the receiver out of Oklahoma. That is thrilling to me. And somehow he's not your best rookie receiver. He's not. Myles Boykin looks fucking incredible. I have him in both of my leagues too. He looks amazing. And then Mark Andrews at tight end is

maybe actually the receiver number one on the team in terms of how they use him. Then you look at the running backs. Gus Edwards is still there, but they added Mark Ingram, drafted Justice Hill, who's a burner. He's the kind of guy they haven't had in the back field in a long time. That's a good offense. And then a healthy,

hopefully, Marshall Yanda coming back to the offensive line of Ronnie Stanley can stay healthy and they're calling plays based on the skill of the most important person on the team, that is pretty thrilling to me. I think Lamar's going to have an incredible year. I can't wait. We should mention you are a Lamar truther.

I just am speaking facts here. You were, when, in the playoff game last year, you were like Neil's mom in Dead Poets Society. Continue. He's okay! He's okay! Here's the thing.

He was okay. None of that was his fault. Also, he was a rookie quarterback in the playoffs. It's fine. We tossed it away. They played the Chargers two out of three weeks and they didn't adjust the game plan at all. That's on the coaching. It's fine. We tossed it away. They played the Chargers two out of three weeks,

and they didn't adjust the game plan at all. That's on the coaching staff. I don't blame him at all. I'm in on Lamar. When they started to call plays with confidence in the fourth quarter, he looked exceptional. Who's number four on the list? You believe this, Kyle?

Number four. I am sincerely interested in seeing the beginning of or the only year of the Dejevion Clowney era in Seattle after the trade. I think this is fascinating. First of all, again, the schedule makes this particularly intriguing to me

because they open with Cincy. Cincinnati has a chance. I mean, everyone's talking about the Dolphins. Cincinnati has a chance to be the worst team in football. Yeah, I agree. Like, really has a chance and definitely has, everyone's talking about the Dolphins. Cincinnati has a chance to be the worst team in football. Yeah, I agree. Like, really has a chance and definitely has one of the worst offensive lines. So you look at the Ziggy Anza

and he seems to finally be healthy. And then Clowney combo as the edge rushers going against that line. And that is going to be ugly for the Bengals. I have that defense in both fantasy draft leagues too. I'm noticing a pattern here. No, I just, I like their defense. I think they're going to be good.

I think they're going to be good too. The way that they're all talking about the defense, using words like scary and fierce, and Carroll is comparing them to the Bennett, Avril defense. Like obviously we're beyond the era of the Legion of Boom and Earl Thomas is now a proud Raven, I might add. But smartly replacing key spots on that

defense. Yeah. Clowney is simultaneously one of these guys who, you know, he was not only the number one pick in the draft in 2014, but he was the number one recruit. You know, you said college football. I also follow high school football and recruiting because I have an illness. Yeah. He was like an all time generational recruit signing day when he did not actually sign, by the way, completely revolved around what his decision was going to be. He's been an obsession of the football world for years at this point. I remember, didn't at Grantland, we wrote a piece about, should he be able to go right to the pros or we had something like that, right?

Yeah, well, there was a big, there was a big debate. There was a big thing in heading into his junior year at South Carolina about whether he should sit out and basically protect his body. This was when a lot of players were getting injured, compromising draft stock

or their future. This was also a big moment for the conversation around like insurance versus what your ultimate NFL contract was going to be. And then we started to enter the era of like star players

sitting out bowl games. So that was a big part of his early legacy too, because a lot of it was like, he's going to be the best defensive prospect in the NFL in decades. And he didn't, he didn't follow through on that level of hype, but that doesn't mean he's not a good player. And I think it's one of those things where there's been a little bit of a muddying of not even his reputation, but just an understanding of the kind of player he is because everybody thought he was going to be generational, and he wasn't. He hasn't hit a double-digit sack total, for example,

and that's the kind of thing, if you're scouting an edge rusher, that you just look at, and if you don't see, you say, oh, he's really underperformed. But, you know, Riley McAfee wrote about this for The Ringer. Like, if you look at the advanced metrics, they show a different caliber of player, and I think it's also the kind of thing where where even though the Texans have had a good defense, you put him in the Seattle defense in that machine.

He just feels like the kind of player. There's some intangible aspect there where it just seems like he'll be the kind of guy that they can unlock. And he's in a contract year. Also, can you really try your hardest when JJ Watt is right next to you? I mean, yeah.

You're never going to be the guy on that Texans defense. You're not. Also, you have to hang out with J.J. Watt all the time. You're given like 80%. You're like, I don't want to do my best. Clowney always had other interests, like opening vape shops. Remember that? That was an incredible thing that happened.

Can't wait to see what he does in Seattle. That's when he got on Kyle's radar. I was like, who's this guy? I agree. I'm with you. You know, I love narratives and gut feelings. That's to my detriment a lot of times. Something feels right about this Seahawks thing.

Yeah. I can see him in the jersey. He hasn't had a career year yet. It almost reminds me of that, like a young, talented actor or actress. Finally got the role they've been waiting for like oh i've always liked them oh this is great totally i'm so glad and the other thing too again this is kind of in the intangible gut feeling category not like something empirical but he wanted to be there you know he te he, Texans not having a GM right now and completely fucking up

how they handled this is separate from how he'll do in Seattle, but is related because that part of how you assess his ultimate impact is that Seattle barely had to give up anything to get him. So stupid.

And that if he doesn't ultimately sign a long-term deal, he'll get a comp pick. Like there's really no risk for them. It's a $16 million franchise tag, one year investment with the prospect for something long-term if it works out. But because he hadn't signed his franchise tender,

he had leverage. He had the ability to say, if you trade me to a team I don't want to go to, like the Dolphins, that was heavily reported, I'm not going to sign. He wanted to be in Seattle. That means he wants to play hard for them. Yeah.

And that makes a difference. Why didn't he, Kyle, why didn't he say, I want to play for Bill Belichick and the six-time champion of the Patriots? Because that's what I would have done.

Oh, my God. Jamie Collins is enough for me. Yeah. Kyle loves having Jamie Collins back. Hold on. We're taking a break. Then we're going to number three.

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All right, three left on Mal is most intriguing, and then we're done. This is great. I'm really enjoying how this is going so far. This has been fun, other than... When I compared Joe Flacco to Kendall Roy? Actually, I really enjoyed that. I was going to say when you needlessly mentioned the Patriots, but.

Oh, I'm sorry. I won't do that again. At least for five more minutes. Yeah, sure. You won't do that again until I say what number three is. Okay. What is it? This is your favorite thing to talk about the last couple of weeks. Yeah.

Dave Chappelle? Sorry. Your second favorite thing to talk about the last couple of weeks. The Colts in a post-Andrew Luck world. Oh. They've already been represented in million-dollar picks. We jumped on them plus six and a half. Are you going to make me feel bad about this?

No. I'm kind of hyped for them. Yes. Yeah. Come join us. The more I read about Jacoby Brissett and everything that Frank Reich has built and everything about that team and what they've done on the offense

and the strength of the line, I feel like the team can be pretty good. And not to say there's no drop-off when you lose Andrew Locke. That would be a ridiculous thing to say. But I think Jacoby Brissett can surprise a lot of people and I think the team can do pretty well. They're, again, benefiting from potentially a week one that works in their favor.

The Chargers are a good team, but I also think the Chargers are a debacle right now. No left tackle. We covered it with House. No left tackle. Derwin James is out. 30,000-seat home stadium. The Derwin James thing in particular, though,

when you're going against a quarterback who's trying to find his groove and prove that he can command the offense, the difference between having Derwin James on the field and not on the field is kind of the only thing that matters. He's the most versatile defender and one of the most gifted defenders in the sport. That's been true since he was a freshman at Florida State. And that is just a huge thing for the Colts to benefit from in week one. And then if you look at the schedule

a couple weeks after that, I mean, the Titans in week two, Eagles, Raiders, Chiefs, bye. Like, can they be three and two heading into the bye? I say yes. I think they can too. I think there's a real chance. You left out the nobody believes in us except everyone in this locker room and Bill Simmons and Mallory Rubin, who I'm sure, who's the Quentin Nelson? Yeah.

Maybe he'll be saying that during the week six bye. You think that'll be the chance that the mic'd up is picking up. I guess that video ended up being fake, right? The one of him grunting and chirping while he was in his box. But you mentioned Quentin Nelson to the line. I mean, that's a huge thing, right? An absolutely elite offensive line. They've spent years building a line so Andrew Luck

wouldn't get hurt anymore. And then he retired when he finally had the line. So this is the thing. But we're not judging Andrew Luck. We're not. Happy for that guy. Andrew, follow your list. If you're listening in a burka right now in the mountains somewhere in Tibet, good luck, man. All happy for you.

The tendency, the initial tendency, is to look at what Jacoby Brissett did when he was last starting for the Colts, right? Not fair. Not fair at all. It's reasonable as an initial instinct, but it's ultimately nonsensical for the reason you just said,

which is they've rebuilt the entire line that he's playing behind and a lot of the offense around him. But playing behind one of, if not the best pass-blocking offensive line in the entire league, then you have Brian Hoyer coming in, little veteran mentorship, right?

Someone to help him feel confident. He's got the two-year, $30 million contract extension that he agreed to. Another confidence boost. Marlon Mack, Naheem Hines. It's a decent backfield. It's at least okay.

I like Marlon Mack. I'm higher on Marlon Mack the most. I'm not super high on Marlon Mack. I like him. But it's enough. It's enough. Serviceable. And then you get to throw to T.Y. Hilton. I'm into Devin Funchess. I think's enough. It's enough. Serviceable. And then you get to throw to

T.Y. Hilton. I'm into Devin Funchess. I think he has a chance to be good. And I think the fact that he and Brissette get to develop chemistry together is probably huge. And then we'll know if they have a handshake after a touchdown or like a special celebration. That's a good thing to look for. They have a celebration. I'll be like, oh, it's on with these guys. There's

no way that Eric Ebron's touchdown pace is sustainable, right? That's literally impossible. Prime regression candidate in all of the sport, but still a red zone target. And so is Jack Doyle. That's a pretty good offense to have to be plopped into. And then I think specifically, again,

no one is arguing that Jacoby Brissett is as good as Andrew Luck. That's not the point. It's whether the system that he is asked to perform in can help facilitate his success. And I think the answer to that is yes. And so- Well, and one more thing on that.

I think Andrew Luck, had he been just healthy this year, I think he would have had an incredible year because it had all been kind of building toward this year for them. So now Brissette just kind of gets to come in. The career year that you always like to say he never had? He never had. But it's built for somebody

and it could be Jacoby Brissette's 80% version of Andrew Luck's career year. That's a good season. Right. So before Reich was the Colt Tech coach, he was the Eagles offensive coordinator. And what did he famously have to deal with as Eagles offensive coordinator?

Losing Carson Wentz and having to turn to Nick Foles. Now, obviously, Nick Foles had more experience as a starter in the NFL than Jacoby Brissett had. Huge cock, too. They don't call him Big Dick Nick for nothing, folks! Kyle's blushing as much. He's the color of his like tea in the corner there. Kyle loves big Nick jokes more than anyone. And Nick Chubb jokes.

Same. And Nick Chubbs. And Bradley Chubb. We got a lot of dick names or Nick names out there. Great dick names. So he had to recalibrate what the Eagles offense was. Right. Leaning on play action more.

Leaning on RPOs more so that it could work for Foles. This is just a different version of that, except it almost doesn't have to be adjusted as much with the Colts as it was with the Eagles. And this is something that Danny Kelly wrote about for the ringer when he wrote about Bursette.

The Colts offense was already redesigned to your point to protect Andrew Luck, especially last year because of the shoulder injury. Couldn't let him get hit, couldn't let him take the kind of damage that he had taken before. So it was a lot of quick drops and quick passes,

short throws, intermediate throws, the like deep ball Hilton offense that had kind of defined those prior years. That wasn't what their offense was last year. That's a much easier thing to ask Jacoby Brissett to slide in and try to do. And I think he can also create

some plays with his legs, which younger Luck could do, but the version of Luck last year. He used to be an incredible runner. Yeah, I know. He wasn't the same guy. Watching him at Stanford. Oh my God.

It was honestly unbelievable. He was so special. Well, I'm with you on the Colts. Who's number two? Number two is another duo. Okay. I had them at number one until some events that occurred today moved someone else into the number one spot. Yeah.

Number two, Kyler and Cliff. Rookie quarterback, rookie coach, number one pick in the draft. New coach for the Arizona Cardinals. Does it have a chance to be an all-time disaster? Sure. But I don't think it will be. I think it's going to be fun as hell every single week and especially right away. I cannot wait to see this. Kyler, another one. I remember back at Grantland chatting with Chris Ryan when Kyler was still a recruit about whether he should go play baseball out of high school or whether he should play football. He is such an exhilarating athlete to watch. Like, as sports fans, that ultimately is, you know, we get into, we're in the advanced metrics era and we talk about the data and DVOA this.

But at the end of the day, there's something about being a football fan that boils down to this. When you turn on your TV to watch somebody, is it fun? And I think Kyler Murray, other than like Baker Mayfield and a couple other people, has the chance to be one of the most fun players we get to watch this year. He's going to struggle. All rookie quarterbacks do. I think the questions that followed him into the draft are going to hang over his rookie season, too. Is he too small?

Can he take the hits? Should he have taken the, what ultimately ended up being like close to $20 million from the A's instead to play baseball, et cetera, et cetera. He's always going to be compared to Josh Rosen, though, of course, Josh Rosen doesn't look like he's going to play.

I mean, he is currently losing a quarterback battle to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fitzmagic, on a team that is deliberately tanking and trying to lose games that's a tough beat so I don't think he's gonna have to worry too much even though I am still a Rosen believer and I know you are too I don't think he's gonna have to worry too much about oh my god how how could the Cardinals have possibly justified trading Josh Rosen one year into his rookie contract a top 10 pick to go take another quarterback in the top 10, number one overall.

He had an interesting preseason, but I kind of think it's one of those preseasons where we don't really need to read too much into it. On the one hand, it's just literally his first- Because nothing good happens. Well, it's his first exposure to NFL speed, even in the preseason. It's his first exposure to not having any blockers. That line is a problem. It's his first exposure to just running for his life.

I do have a note here that says, playing behind mostly the same line that broke Josh Rosen. Yeah. I mean, that's not completely true.

They did change a lot about the line. They traded for Marcus Gilbert. They signed Jair Sweezy. AQ Shibley's back from injury. They signed Max Garcia. They drafted a couple linemen. There is different personnel there. At the end of the day, the line is still graded

out by PFF to be one of the worst in the league. It's a problem. That part? The infrastructure is what worries me. As Joe Girardi would say, it's not what you want. No, you have super shaky offensive line and a 500 college coach

who has just never done the job before. Like those are two major red flags. I want to talk about it. And I don't love his weapons either. So all of those points are fair. Let's talk about all of them. Weapons first. Let's save Cliff in the offense

because that's obviously like the most essential thing other than just Kyler's pure ability. Running back, Dave Johnson, healthy. Above average, at least. Well above average. Receivers, the eternal Larry Fitzgerald. How effective will he be this year? Who knows, but he's still there.

He'll probably find a way to catch like 85 passes. He's still there is such a great scouting report. He's still there. Larry Fitzgerald, he's still there. It's such a great scouting report. He's still there. There for sure. He's still there. Jeff Chow likes to say that when we're, when we're strategizing for our fantasy football drafts, more so with baseball,

but also for football, I love to say, well, if he's healthy. Yeah. He's still there. It's just another version. He's still there.

He's healthy. There's literally something to. That was Reggie Wayne on the Colts for like three or four years. Are you just on the field? Yeah. But then Christian Kirk I love A lot of sleeper buzz

I love I loved him at A&M But he needs to be really good though Like he needs to become a number one He needs Because he can't be Larry Fitz They need him Or Hakeem Butler to be

Basically a star I'm dubious Crabtree is also on the team But I think we know what we're getting with Michael Crabtree at this point. Well, so they're playing the Lions in week one. I almost took the Lions because the Lions are favored by 2.5 in Arizona.

And I was like, that's curious because the Lions aren't good and they have Matt Patricia as their coach. And Vegas thinks they should be favored. That's a red flag for the Cardinals. The thing is, they have a pass rush, right? So Trey Flowers, they added Mike Daniels to the D-line. The Lions do. Yeah. They can send the farm at him. Yeah. That's going to be a tough thing for Kyler to have to process in his first start. So would you believe the

narrative of they actually look terrible in week one and then people overreact to the Lions and then things settle down as the next few games go along. Yeah, I mean, I think you always have to bake in some measure of time and experience for a rookie quarterback. Like that's definitely part of it. He'll have moments and whatever. I like what you said though about some,

like we love watching football because of the star power and stuff. But even like further than that, I love watching some of these just awesome one of a kind athletes. Yes. And he's definitely one of those guys that is just like Mahomes last year. We all got so excited, not just because he's putting up stats, but he was throwing passes at weird angles and doing things I'd just never seen a football player do before.

Yeah. And that's why I really miss Gronk on the pads. There's another guy like that. Yeah. I brought him up. But young Gronk was like the best patriot of my life. I just can't believe how good he was. He was like a horse running through the wilderness, just knocking over cowboys. But anyway, I think Kyler is in that kind of weird, freaky athletic. Totally. There's something like it's kind of a transcendent experience to watch him play football. It's just not a normal thing, especially when he'll be running for his life.

It'll be even more transcendent. So the way he runs is actually part of it. It's simultaneously part of the false narrative and part of what's actually really fun about watching him. I think people think because he's such a gifted athlete that he's a run first quarterback. And that just is not true. He's a passer. He's a pocket passer. passer now it's fair to ask if somebody who's 5'8 can be a pocket passer in the NFL I think he can be if they can protect him well enough which is 5'8 nobody knows nobody realized that no he's literally 5'8 Russell Wilson Baker Russell Wilson's 5'6 they have different bodies they're have different bodies. They're just bigger than Kyler. They are.

Yeah. But I still think he's just such a special talent. When he has to run, though, it's like watching the wind. It is funny. I was in a room with Flutie once. Yeah. Who was 5'8", 5'9". And you know the guy's small and you've watched him in football, but when you're actually in the room, you're like,

God, how are you a quarterback? Like, it's just kind of jarring. Kyler Murray is a small guy. 5'8 is like how tall Tom Cruise is. It definitely is not. You think Tom Cruise is shorter? Yes. He's 5'7.

For sure. He's an inch taller than Tom Cruise. Yeah. It's like if Kyler Murray had been playing the Jon Snow role in Game of Thrones, they would have had just as many jokes about Jon Snow's height. You know, it's one of those things. Just as many creative camera angles. But I think it's going to be okay.

He's just, he's so inventive and innovative. And then when he throws, he throws a perfect deep ball. He has a perfect spiral. His completion percentage in college was close to 70. As rocky as the preseason was, he was north of 60 with his completion percentage. And then you get to the offense and that's really the key. It's this combo.

You know, Cliff Kingsbury was fired from Texas Tech. Like a middling Big 12 program. Yeah. I don't think we spent enough time talking about the fact that he is an NFL head coach

one year later. It's certainly on my radar. There was a brief stop as USC's offensive coordinator. Yeah. And then this happened. When he was still coaching in college, he was on the record saying that he would take Kyler Murray number one in the draft if he ever had the chance to do so. He believes in Kyler Murray fully.

Like, there's nothing ambiguous about it. It's not one of these things where it's like, does the team believe in the kid they drafted? Do they actually think this can work? There's a reason that they hired Cliff Kingsbury to build this offense. There's a reason they traded Josh Rosen. They think this can work. And the other thing with the cliff history is that, OK, air aid coach, right, for

anyone who doesn't know that offensive guru famously was was Johnny Manziel's coach when in his electric season. Heard of him. Arguably just as famously was Baker Mayfield's coach at Texas Tech and let Baker

Mayfield leave to go to Oklahoma, which is, again, it's not what you want. Tough one. You hate to see it. They did not get along, it's not what you want. Tough one. You hate to see it. They did not get along. That's a thing. That's like a fun sports beef that I look forward to seeing play out in the NFL.

His defenses, the Texas Tech defenses were like historically bad every year, but his offenses were as good. And he also had Mahomes at Texas Tech. He sounds like Mike D'Antoni. All offense, no defense. Yeah, but that might be, that might work. If they can get defensive coaching staff in place. Well, this was always Roger Sherman's theory about the NFL

that they should just care about offense and just completely throw away defense. I mean, the Cardinals still have good players on defense, but they hired a head coach to be their offensive coordinator and quarterback coach. That's what they did. All right, so we got to move to number one. It's going to be great.

So Kyler, Kyler and Cliff. Yeah, it's going to be fun. You don't know what's going to happen, but you're titillated. But I can't wait to find out. I can't wait to find out. All right, number one on the list, I can guess. It's another duo.

Okay. For different reasons, I am more intrigued about two wide receivers than I am about anything else heading into the first week of the football season. Odell Beckham

and Antonio Brown. Yeah. Let's talk about Odell first and let's end on Antonio. The only way to end, I think. As his career ends. I mean, sure. We both know he's going to be a Patriot. Oh, God, no. Yeah. end, I think. As his career ends. I mean, sure. We both know he's going to be a patriot.

Oh, God, no. Yeah. Oh, God, no. Kyle, can you clip that soundbite so that when he's a patriot in two weeks and Bill is celebrating it, singing his praises, talking about how this was predestined from the moment that they recorded a podcast together in this very office. We never did a podcast. We just, we hung out. Never actually recorded a podcast together in this very office. We never did a podcast. We just, we hung out.

Never actually recorded a podcast. Kyle would have remembered it. Common misconception. Yeah. More fake news. Posted on Instagram. More fake news about the Patriots. So Odell and Antonio Brown,

obviously two of the five most important and defining receivers in the sport of the five most important and defining receivers in the sport in the last five years. Both on new teams, both in uniquely interesting situations. Odell, I will say there were some alarming updates today

about his hip. I don't know if you saw this. He had a, let me find the quote. Oh no. Mary Kay Cabot had a, let me find the quote. Oh, no. Mary Kay Cabot had a piece today. Odell talking about his hip. Because he didn't play in the preseason. He practiced, but he didn't play in any of the games.

He's been dealing with this hip injury. And it seemed like it was totally fine once he was cleared to practice. And he said, it's like an extremely fast car with the alignment off. The car can still go, but it's dangerous. That is extremely alarming to hear. Oh, Jesus. And a huge bummer, because until I saw that quote

just a couple hours ago, I was like, Odell is going to basically have 1,600 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, and Odell and Baker are going to be the most energizing, exciting duo in the entire sport. And I'm a Ravens fan, so that pains me. But as a football fan, it absolutely exhilarates me. It had some 07 Moss Brady potential. I hope that this hip thing passes quickly

because the Browns are the team, the IT team, the most hyped team in the offseason, the most hyped team heading into the season. Obviously, you and Sal spent a long time talking about whether that's overblown and whether they can follow through on it, but I think Odell was a little bit separate from the hype as just a purely good thing that people were excited about. People were excited to have him with a real QB

for 16 games. It had never happened in his whole career. It was an offense. Catching passes from Baker. You're going to hear from the Giants fans on staff about what you just said. I guess the first, his rookie year, I guess Eli Stowe was not a corpse yet. That's fair. Showing some corpse-like tendencies, but was not a full-on. He wasn't a full formaldehyde.

Zombie, dead body reanimated by time-sensitive magic for three and a half hours every week. And we'll actually find out midway through this year that Daniel Jones is a literal clone built from a strand of Eli's Bama bangs hair. You're going to clone Halo. I would never. Lock it down.

No, I would never. You're definitely doing that. No, I would never. He's an original. One of one. You're just going to search the streets for another Halo? He'll be with me forever. I'm with you on the Odell career year that

we now feel like we've been cheated out of if he's actually a little banged up. Also, you love Nick Chubb more than anyone alive loves anything. I spent $48 on him. And you know what? I would do it again. I think he's going to be one of the top three running backs. I would do it again. Chris, that is, I think he's going to be one of the top three running backs.

$200 budget though. Yeah. But I wanted to, I wanted a top three running back. And I felt like instead of spending 59 for Alvin Kamara, I get Nick Chubb for 48. I get 11 more dollars. Crazy. You know what else I'm excited about with Odell?

With Jarvis Landry. Best buds. You know, I love when brothers, when brothers and buddies play. I love it. Together again. It's just going to be so

fun and I can't wait and I hope he's healthy. Okay. Antonio Brown. Yeah. This is one of those things where

it's definitely probably got here a while ago but it's definitely firmly in the can we make fun of this anymore because it's so alarming territory. How's that?

I discussed this earlier. There's, it's alarming. So, that caveat, I think, is important to say out loud. However,

this is definitely one of the weirdest sports stories of all time. Here's today's update. And, we should say this, this might be outdated by the time this airs. Like, things are happening update. And we should say this might be outdated by the time this airs.

Like, things are happening quickly. But none of the updates will be good. I think we can say that with confidence. A debacle with the Steelers. Wanted to get out of there. Traded for nothing.

With the Raiders, and every step of the way since he's been there, it has been some sort of circus. First, the frostbitten feet. Yeah. That he described as circumcised

because the process for rehabbing was just removing layers of the skin that had been frozen off because he didn't wear the proper footwear into a cryotherapy chamber. That's a thing that happened, okay? To be a receiver, period, but certainly one with elite speed,

you need the soles of your feet to be, like, intact and featuring living skin cells. I think that's part of it. Generally. I've always heard that. Next helmet game. I don't even know how to succinctly sum this up. He was not allowed to wear the helmet that he had been wearing because we know,

we know the helmet gates are, you don't have to recap it. So he finally finds the helmet. He wanted to wear the unsafe helmet. He's like me refusing to put my seatbelt on. Only he's playing professional football. Yeah, well, you're doing an important thing here too. So please put your seatbelt on and be safe. At least I have my foot cells.

I got to tell you, driving with you can be scary. Kyle knows. I'm a results guy. When was the last story you heard of me hitting another car? I haven't heard anything because all I can hear is the beeping from the alarm because your seatbelt's not on. The alarm stops eventually. You just have to wait a minute.

So he finally picks the helmet that he's going to use. All of his teammates are making fun of him on Hard Knocks saying he looks like a Power Ranger. It's got this little point in the back. It's very funny. A lot of theories around how the bag was dropped. This is an endorsement play.

The long con, yada, yada, yada, whatever. Like your mileage may vary on whether that's legit or not. It kind of doesn't matter. It dominated the whole preseason. Earlier this week,

he was fined by Mike Mayock, GM of the Raiders. And Antonio Brown then posted the letter about the fine. The fine was for missing team activities, mandatory activities, a walkthrough, et cetera. $54,000, I think, in fines. Antonio Brown posted that on Instagram.

Bad sign. With a message about, oh, your own team. And the reports that came out today were that Mayock was furious that they got into it with each other. Initial reports indicated a physical altercation that teammates had to hold Antonio Brown back. I never believed that.

Teammates including, this is the part where you're like, this is not real. Vontaze Perfect, one of the people stopping a fight? Yeah. I don't think so. My fact-checking sensors go off there.

Then reports are like, okay, it was a screaming match. It wasn't physical. But then Antonio Brown threatened to punch Mayock in the face, punted a football and said, find this. Well, there is video of that.

He did throw a football over the stance. What's the upshot? The upshot is that the Raiders are now threatening or saying they're going to, according to reports, suspend Antonio Brown. Then the next wave of coverage around this says that because of a suspension,

they would be able to void his contract. $29 million guaranteed $1 million signing bonus. They can get out of the deal and release him with zero cap it. How about the agent that came up with that contract? Rough. Tough one. Really rough. So there's a whole bunch of chatter online about how Gruden's going to have to decide whether he cares more about having Brown on the team or making Mayock feel like he's his guy. Who knows if that's legit or not. But this is a fucking debacle.

Like this is a mess. He's supposed to be there as an elite offensive weapon and a prime receiver for Derek Carr. And he's like one of the four best receivers of all time. Yes. And one of the things

that was actually cool about Hard Knocks was seeing his conditioning program, the way he studies data, the advanced metrics. Like he takes that stuff extremely seriously. He doesn't appear to be an I'll just show up and it'll be okay guy. He studies data, the advanced metrics. He takes that stuff extremely seriously. He doesn't appear to be an I'll just show up and it'll be okay guy.

He wants to be great, but doesn't seem to be able to get out of his own way. So what's your prediction? I don't think we're ever going to see him play a game for the Raiders. I don't think so either. It really is starting to feel like that. I said that to Klaus and I talked about it before. I don't think he ever plays for them. And what's so amazing about it is it is more

intriguing than anything that has a chance to play out on an actual football field this Sunday because it is so, so surreal and bizarre. And you know who's happy about it and this part is sickening? Pittsburgh Steelers fans, who I deplore. I will say

Pat Modani, Steelers for Interworks for us, was walking around today like he had just won the lottery while having his back rubbed by 17 supermodels. I've never seen anybody happier. I just saw him through my window. He was just walking back and forth

in front of my window just I think to show me how happy he was. They're bathing in the schudenfreude. Real restraint there saying back rub. Proud of you. Back rub? Thank you. I caught myself. I know. I know.

How about Pat, man? We have so many Steelers fans. Pat, Corey, Zach Graham, Ben Glicksman. Well, they haven't won a Super Bowl in like a decade. I mean, this is their biggest victory. They're so annoying. The decade started with Tim Tebow beating them in a playoff game, and it's been all downhill ever since.

So this is their biggest win. It is. You're right. And they've got Juju playing Fortnite, catching touchdowns. Well, that was a good list. Thank you. I really enjoyed Mallory's Most Intriguing. I look forward to hearing more next week.

Thank you. I look forward to being here next week. I can't wait to talk about high school football and fantasy literature with you. It's Most Intriguing. I look forward to hearing more next week. Thank you. I look forward to being here next week. I can't wait to talk about high school football and fantasy literature with you. It's going to be fantastic. All right. Thanks to House. Thanks to Mallory. Thanks to Nephew Kyle. Look forward to watching football with him on Sunday. Thanks to ZipCruiter.com. Don't forget to go to ZipCruiter.com slash BS. And thanks to FanDuel. Don't forget to go to fanduel.com slash ringer. Enter. Enter before Sunday,

before the game starts. You can try to beat me and Sal in the trifecta. We'll be back Sunday night with the Cuz, Guess the Lines, We Too. I cannot wait for football.

Here we go. I want to see them on the way so I never say I don't have feelings with them. On the wayside, on the way so I never say I don't have feelings with them.