The Bill Simmons Podcast - Utah's Good, the 49ers Aren’t Dead, Nobody Believes in Minnesota, and More—With Michael Pina, Peter Schrager, and Benjamin Solak

Episode Date: December 9, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Michael Pina to discuss the Jazz continuing to win games, what the Mavericks are missing, and the Celtics' defense (3:48). Bill talks with Peter Schrager of NFL Network and Fox Sports about the 49ers and why they have a shot at a playoffs run with rookie QB Brock Purdy, before hitting on some upcoming games: Vikings-Lions, Steelers-Ravens, Panthers-Seahawks, and Jets-Bills (32:55). Then Bill is joined by Benjamin Solak to discuss his five biggest NFL matchups for this week including Eagles-Giants, 49ers-Buccaneers, and Dolphins-Chargers (1:16:08). Finally, Bill makes his Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 14 (1:49:21). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Michael Pina, Peter Schrager, and Benjamin Solak Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's the bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel footballs in full action. FanDuel is highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good.

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We did Man on Fire, my favorite Denzel movie. That happened. Have another great one coming on Monday that was nominated for multiple Oscars. That will be your hint. Prestige TV. Joanna and Mallory

put up a whole bunch of theories on the White Lotus season finale that you can go check out right now. We also covered Wednesday. I don't know when Joanne and I are going to be doing the season finale episode. I think we have to actually

watch it live and do it either late night, Sunday night, or early Monday morning. So, episode seven, Sunday night, you'll see. We'll have a podcast within 12 to 18 hours after that. Speaking of podcasts, Xander Bogarts signed with the Padres for $280 million last night,

and I was upset. Brian Barrett, who hosts our Off the Pike podcast, he was also really upset. And I ended up calling in and we did a pod. It was 11 o'clock my time. It was two o'clock Barrett's time. But we talked about just what in God's name has happened to this stupid Red Sox team

over the last three years, how indefensible the owners are, how they have no strategy, how I think they're going to sell the team and that this is all leading that. We don't know what's going to happen to Devers. The last three years are inexplicable. They're awful. They're a last place team that paid the luxury tax last year. The GM who inherited the team inherited Mookie Betts and Xander Bogarts and Andrew Benintende

and all of them are gone. Chris Sales making a ton of, it's awful. So we just vented about what the hell are the Red Sox doing? And then we talked some Celtics to make ourselves feel better. So the Red Sox are playing a very dangerous game right now because they're going to get blown out next spring by the Celtics and Bruins in the playoffs. And they've really, really, really made the fans mad

because they're getting rid of guys that people whose their kids have grown up with, like Bogarts and Betts. And you can't replace that. And we talk about this on the pod, but this is a classic why people who don't give a shit about a team should not own a team. And I know they brought the four titles and we appreciate that.

And we appreciate how they rebuilt Fenway Park, but they clearly do not want to own this team anywhere. So fucking sell it already. Anyway, Brian Barrett and I talked about that. Bogarts loved watching you. You were a great Red Sox. I just, it's just, Bogarts, loved watching you. You're a great Red Sox.

They could have taken care of this last year for like 175 million, maybe? Now let's roll it over. Oh, I wonder what's going to happen. Yeah, he's going to San Diego, who has unlimited pockets, even though it's two hours from LA. Anyway, I'm pissed. Let's cheer up.

We'll talk some basketball with Michael Pina from The Ringer. We're going to talk San Francisco 49ers in Week 14 games with Peter Schrager. And then last but not least, the matchups of the week with Ben Solak. And then I'm going to put some million-dollar picks on the end. Don't look now, but there's some smoke coming off the million-dollar

picks. Doing pretty well. It's all next. First Pearl Jam. All right. Start now with NBA. Becca Pina is here from the Ringer. We're going to talk a couple things that intrigue us as we head into the weekend. One of them was I was watching a couple things last night at the same time, including Utah Golden State.

Utah pulls a crazy game out of the deep recesses of the rectum. They just keep doing it. Every time I think they're ready to tank, they win another game and we're now heading toward like the 30 game mark pretty soon this team's not going to tank Michael I think they might actually hang around how are they doing this?

It's a wonderful wonderful question right now Bill they have tied for the second best offense in the NBA with the Phoenix Suns, who were shellacked by the Celtics last night. Offense has been terrific.

Will Hardy has implemented this five-out system that coming into the season, I think all of the players that they got in the Rudy Gobert trade, in the Donovan Mitchell trade, all those pieces were kind of these random, unappreciated role players, I guess you could say. Some of them were appreciated

by people like us, though. We all like Vanderbilt. They were kind of packing these people away. Like, I like that guy. I kind of like that guy. Absolutely. And Will Hardy has done this tremendous job of fitting everyone in and finding this system that accentuates all of their positive skill sets. Offensively hiding their weaknesses, defense is a different question. But you said it, Vanderbilt has been tremendous. Lowry Markkinen, the way they use them with the wide pin downs, the flare screens, He's having the best stretch of his entire career. He might make the all-star team.

Who knows? They traded for Kelly Olenek, who's just... I mean, he's kind of in a perfect situation for him. Just this pseudo point guard, able to run the DHO keepers. He's one of the most accurate three-point shooters in the league right now, spacing the floor for everybody. Just for the record, I never sold my

Illinix stock ever. I always felt like bigs who could shoot, I always liked them. And he had, you remember game seven wizards. It's the Kelly Illinix game. He came through in big moments. So you didn't mention the Italian guy before you go on to the big picture. I mean, they threw in a random Italian guy out of nowhere on top of everything else. It was just the Italian guy. I don't even know what his name is. I just call him the Italian guy. Yes.

Uh, I'm Funtechio Funtechio. Uh, he had the game winning dunk, uh, last night. Yeah. He's been tremendous.

So they just have all these parts. Everyone can put the ball on the floor. Everyone can shoot. Everyone can pass. It's really fun to watch. And Will Hardy's system that he implemented has just been gangbusters so far. It's so funny that Will Hardy is the guy involved in this because a lot of the stuff they're doing

is very similar to what the Celtics do, right? It's this all five guys are a threat offense, which seems pretty unusual, but it's just you know, it's not something that we've a threat offense, which seems pretty unusual, but it's just, you know, it's not something that we've seen until the last couple of years. But I think, talked about this before,

Boston, everyone on the team can shoot. When Rob Williams comes back, that'll be the first time they'll have somebody in there who at least would probably not attempt a three-pointer. In Utah, like these crunch time lineups and just the space that he's able to get, and he's really on it. You know, like the certain coaches were like just the space that he's able to get. And he's really on it. Those certain coaches were like, oh, that guy's on it.

And you see even when they're down four or 12 seconds left, you don't turn the game off. What he's done with Clarkson, I think, has been the most interesting. All the other stuff you could have predicted or you could have said, well, that guy has talent. But turning Clarkson from a guy that I always just thought was like a 22 to 25 minute a night, you know, really great heat check guy

to somebody who actually seems like he could be, I don't know, the third best player in a title team, that was inconceivable to me. He's been good. He's, you know, he's not coming off the bench anymore. He's starting, obviously, every one of their games so far. And averaging twice as many assists per game as he ever has before. Really making plays.

Yeah, he's 20-5 a game. I wouldn't have expected that from Jordan Clarkson, would you? No, I wouldn't have. And I think credit is due to him. Credit is due to Hardy, once again, for getting those veterans, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, even a guy like Rudy Gay to buy in after you are a quote unquote contender for a few years. And then you make these trades that are clearly a step in a different direction to get a Clarkson to buy in, to get those guys, all the vets to buy in.

I think just a really impressive job by him. But Clarkson's been terrific. And, you know, he almost got into it the other night with Kaminga. Did you see his fist up pose? It was like West Side Story. I thought they were going to have like a little musical fight or something. Yeah, I overreacted when I said third best guy on a title team, but

he could be one of the best five. He could be a crunch time guy on a team that's in the conference finals. The other thing with Sexton that where it's just like you're just playing he'll play 20 to 27 minutes a game. There's going to be games where if you don't have it, we're not going to play as much.

He's the heat check guy, not Clarkson. And that's worked too. I look at this like, would Conley miss 10 games? And he's still in street clothes, but he'll be back at some point. With the West as wide open as it is, I wonder when they

start looking at this seriously and going, instead of tanking, what do we got here? We have all these picks. What are we going to do with 100 they start looking at this seriously and going instead of tanking, Hmm, what do we got here? We have all these picks. What are we going to do with a hundred picks? Like, could we, could we,

could we dabble around in the bargain, in the bargain line and maybe grab one more piece to this? I don't, I don't know if Danny is there yet. Um, the fear, the fear is that you don't want to be like a Chicago Bulls

where you think you're much better than you are and then you make this trade and you give up all these picks and you get a veteran who's not good, or I shouldn't say not good, but a veteran who's kind of like a pseudo-all-star and not someone who can put you over the top in a playoff series.

But the thing about Utah at the same time is they have a million picks. They don't just have their own picks. They have all these picks from the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves are a train wreck. They have all these picks from the Cavaliers. A small market organization that's playing really great right now has a lot of young talent. Could be great for the next decade. We don't know.

But it's still wonderful to have their draft equity. They have a good Golden State pick too, I think. I think they do. I think they have like a... That's another one they have. They're loaded all over the place. That's the thing. I think with OKC, you see Sam get drunk at some

of these drafts, or draft drunk. He's like, I want to move up to 16. Here's another one. He just starts... They start throwing around picks. Because what are you going to do with all of them? The Celtics were in a very, very, very junior version of this where they just, for a couple years in a row, had two, three first-round picks.

It's not ideal once they're all on the team. None of them have experience. Some of them aren't playing. They're not getting better. So at some point, you got to parlay them. But yeah, I just think the West, you saw it last night with Phoenix, just getting their absolute asses handed to them by a Celtics team that knew within five minutes that they were going to win by 30. And that was the team that people felt like was the top

contender. You see Denver, who at home against Dallas, like you should, I don't know, you should win that game on TV. They didn't. I don't trust Dallas. We have a whole bunch of teams, like Memphis, I don't trust them from a health standpoint. I just don't feel like, and then Golden State, you felt like they were coming on,

and then all of a sudden they're going backwards and they look like a pickup team again. So I don't really know who to like. Who do you like? You got the Pelicans. You have... Right. You got the young Pelicans

who've never done anything. No, you have like the Sacramento Kings. Just a really weird conference. Now we're talking. Yeah. Now we're talking. Just a really weird conference right now. Even the Lakers.

I'm not a Lakers believer, but before AD got the flu or whatever he had and LeBron sat out the other night, they were on a little nice win streak there. So who knows with them, but it's a really weird conference right now, absolutely.

And if you're Utah, it's pretty easy to kind of talk yourself into, maybe we can make the playoffs outright as a 6 seed or a 5 seed and see what happens. 15 and 12 right now.

They're closer to a 1 seed than they are to the 14 seed, but it's pretty even. Who knows? The thing with Danny is he's completely soulless with all this stuff and he'll do whatever it is to give him the best chance to win the title. Right. So he's watching all these games and at some point he'll decide, what are we doing? Like, wait, we're going to be in these games against like Luka, Jokic. Like we're never going to have the firepower to beat I'm not positive he'll stay on the court all the time. But I think, you know, pretty reasonable contract. Somebody that a lot of teams would want. Clarkson would have a ton of value. And I don't even know, he's such an asset. I don't even know if you put him on eight teams. Caruso's my favorite trade target of anyone. Just like the nine million a year.

You put him on Milwaukee, Golden State, every coach is just high-fiving the other eight coaches. But Olenek's a pretty decent one. Gunpoint, I still think I like the ceiling of Memphis the most.

But I get to go see, I'm going to the Clipper Celtics Monday. I really want to see the Kawhi thing in person. Hopefully he plays. Yeah, well, that's the thing. Unfortunately, in the playoffs, you have to play more than once a week, so that's going to be a problem for them. What was

the other team we wanted to talk about for the Celtics defense? Oh, Dallas. Dallas, So they switched some dudes around. Hardaway got going a little bit. Got a little Josh Green action. This is what they did last year. So we have to take this seriously. All of a sudden, from January on, they just ripped off wins. They still leave me a little cold, Michael. I don't know what it is. I don't know whether it's I don't enjoy watching them or they just feel too small to me

or Luka's their best defensive rebounder. I could list 12 tiny things I don't like, but what am I missing with that team? I mean, I think you're spot on. I'm pretty skeptical myself. They have arguably the best offensive player in the league.

Just an absolutely tremendously effective playmaker. Can do it all. Lucas having a tremendous season. They're getting it done offensively when Dorian Finney-Smith is hitting threes, when Tim Hardaway Jr. is hitting threes. Reggie Bullock when he's hitting threes, he's been pretty cold lately. They're tough to beat.

But, you know, when you have a talent like Luka, I don't care that much about the regular season for them. I want to see, and also in the regular season, Luka, just the usage rate. We've talked about it a million times. Him wearing down eventually is going to happen. But can you wear down when you're just jogging for two and a half hours? Have we seen him break a sweat yet? Maybe he won't wear down. It's a totally fair point. Their pace is

bottom of the league, as it should be. They're obviously conscious of all of this. But, you know, I just, I like Spencer Dinwiddie. Spencer Dinwiddie is my number two ball handler. I don't like, I'm not a fan of that. Christian Wood has been okay. There's been obviously weird stuff going on there all season long with his minutes and whether or not he's going to close games.

The front court rotation has been wonky. But they've been, you know, I thought their Denver win was a real good win. That's like a solid win against a good team. I liked how defensively they executed Jason Kidd's game plan,

which was basically, we're just going to double Jokic and rotate like hellfire every single possession. And it worked. That was all nice to see. Yeah, but hold on on that game really quick. Sure. That was a nice one for Dallas.

To me, that was also a Murray's not quite ready yet game. Because basically Murray could have won that game for them. And the Murray-Jokic pick and roll that they're kind of bringing back from two years ago. And it's just, it's always going to end up with Jokic on a smaller guy or Murray against somebody he could beat off the dribble. I don't see it totally with him yet.

And I think it's going to come back. I'm not writing it off. But the Murray from two years ago wins that game. That was my takeaway watching. I was like, if they had 2020 Murray, they win by five. The number one game where what you're saying really pops in my head is their loss against the Knicks, where he just couldn't go by Emmanuel quickly off the bounce.

I was like, what is going on here? So it's going to take some time, I think, with Jamal Murray. I'm pretty bullish on him. Still one of my favorite players. I think he's a genius offensively in tandem with Nicola Jokic. The three point shot for him has been falling and the pull-ups have been falling. So that's always really good to see.

The per 36 is basically the same. It's to me, it's like a, it's a specific crunch time thing. Because that's the guy for them. We know what Jokic can do. I think the role players are better. The Bruce Brown thing is great.

I think they have a better all-around team. But ultimately, it's going to be games like that. He's going to be the guy with the ball in the last minute, either making plays or not making plays. 100%. You can take out Jokic in different ways. But yeah, I mean, I guess his field goal is down.

It was 48% two years ago. This year it's 43%. That's not great. Three points down a little. But yeah, what do you think? By like February, we'll know? March? Hopefully. I mean, Michael Porter

Jr. missed that game against Dallas as well, which sets another thing. Yeah, so I don't know. I mean, getting back to Dallas, it's just... Yeah, to answer your question, I think that Jamal Murray, by February, hopefully, at least post-All-Star break, right around that time, he's looking like the guy that we saw in the bubble, or 90%, 95% of that guy would be terrific i

hope so he's young he's young um but going back to dallas like i don't know it's just there's i don't know what else you could say about this team and i don't think it's like uh time to just totally panic with luca and surrounding him with the proper talent. But like, what do you, what do you do here? I don't know what the, I feel like last year, not was,

it wasn't a fluke run to the Western conference finals, but I don't know if it's replicable, especially without Jalen Brunson. I don't know if it's replicable with what they have there and how they want to play. Kyle, turn the TikTok camera. Is this a Kyrie team? The Dallas Mavericks.

Do they need, it's a borderline Hail Mary. It might even be more than a Hail Mary, but do they need to do something like that? Do they just look around and go, you know what? We're just not good enough this year. We could do Dinwiddie and Powell,

whatever else makes the contracts work. We'll take a flyer on Kyrie. You know, we're in Texas. He could do weird Kyrie stuff. It'll be fine. And do we just roll the dice that he can be rejuvenated and reinvigorated next to Luka?

Kind of the same way, like mid-2010s Cleveland, where LeBron had the ball all the time and Kyrie kind of learned how to operate next to him? Would you think about that if you were Dallas? No, I would not. Oh my God, you re-triggered my broadcast. You would not. So Kyrie is untradeable for you.

I would absolutely. For me, the downside of acquiring Kyrie Irving greatly exceeds the upside. What's my upside there? Am I winning the title? I don't think so. Am I getting to the conference finals? I just, I doubt it.

He's so unreliable in so many different ways that I, it's just scary to think about if I was a Dallas Mavericks fan and I wanted to just have Luka's life be as smooth as possible. Right, you're bringing that dude in. Exactly. So the downside there is just, you know, it's a total catastrophe. It's something that they could never prepare for in a million years um i on the court also like the nets without kairi look great and i'm not saying that they don't look really good right now with him

yeah but defensively when he was first out and jock Vaughn came on board as their head coach, just the way that they played, the lineups that they could utilize that had size and two-way versatility around Kevin Durant were great and effective. And Kyrie just limits a lot of what you can do and how you can play. So I don't, I'm sorry. I just, I would not touch that. His Sunday Celtics game was the Kyrie, this is why you don't want this version of this guy on your team anymore.

7 for 21, minus 16. Couldn't guard anyone. And you know, if you're talking about dynamic duos, it wasn't even close. Durant and Kyrie versus Tatum Brown. I think it's interesting, though, that he's sunk to the point

that I just offered you as Dallas Dinwiddie and Powell for Kyrie, and you said no. I'll pass. I'll take my chances with Dinwiddie and Powell. You can't sink further than that. Let's talk about the Celtics really quick. You did a thing about their defense,

which is starting to show some signs. They played Phoenix last night. I was off the pike with Brian Barrett talking about this last night, so excuse me for regurgitating it, but there was a little nasty alpha aggro side to that game that I thought was really interesting, especially with Jalen Booker, which we've seen with Jalen really this whole year, the way there's little edge to him. And I don't know whether it was the finals

or he's sitting in his mid twenties, whatever's going on, but, um, there's a little, little like swagger to this team now. They know they're good. And I think this road trip is going to be really interesting for them, going from city to city, knowing they're the best team right now, seeing if they can carry that. But also the grandest stat of that they've led for every minute except 67 in the whole season.

That's an insane stat. When you just have the lead all the time, that means you're really good at basketball. So what'd you see with the defense? Well, first of all, Grant Williams giving DeAndre Ayton the too small taunt. That's just the point where they should have called the game as soon as that happened.

They should have. Mercy rule. Yeah. But I mean, so you're coming off the last season where their defense is one of the best that I've ever seen that carried them to the NBA Finals, a 2-1 lead, etc. In the first month of this season, they were in the

low 20s, below average. And after a couple of really nice performances against the Nets, against the Kings, one of the better offenses in basketball, they kind of bumped it up to 15th in defensive rating. And then after that Suns win, you look at the standings and they're suddenly ninth. They're sixth when you take out garbage time,

according to Cleaning the Glass. And one of the more interesting stats, I thought, was their first in defensive rating against top 10 offenses right now, which is a really good mark, obviously, where you want to be. They're switching as much, a little bit more actually, on and off the ball compared to last season. And I guess the way I look at it is all of this is being done without Rob Williams

and all of the struggles earlier done without Rob Williams and all of this the struggles earlier in the season were happening I think in large part because of and I can't really prove this statistically but I think like when you have one of the best offenses that we've ever seen in terms of just what any

metric you want to use the mentality of okay if we give up a bucket, we're just going to score a three. We're going to get a wide open three 10 seconds later. So it's not even a problem. I thought that that mentality, they're kind of shaking that off right now

and getting back to the every possession is do or die. Stops are our oxygen. As an organization, they're our identity. And they're limiting shots at the rim better than any other team. They're limiting corner threes better than any other team. They're forcing the most long twos in the NBA right now. So just like the shot profile is exactly where you'd want it to be. And the only difference, just statistically, is from last year to this year, really, is opponents are shooting in the short mid-range way above what they normally would

versus last year when it was way below. Because of Rob. It's exactly right. And Horford, they'll sit Horford. They're trying to take it easy on him. Blake Griffin at center, we've, they'll sit Horford. They're trying to take it easy on him. So you have Blake Griffin at center. We've had it like five games so far. And the numbers there, the numbers with Vonlay,

the numbers with Blake have not been good at all. So I think when Rob comes in, Luke Cornett, by the way, has been okay. But I think when Rob Williams takes those minutes, you're just going to see this group go up a level, obviously. And it's really scary because I think that integrating Rob could bring the offense down a little bit. It doesn't absolutely

have to. He could enhance it for all we know. But defensively, the improvement is just going to be tangible with the way he impacts the game. He's one of the better rim protectors and shot blockers the league has. He probably would have won defensive player of the year last year had he not torn his meniscus in March.

So adding a player like that to a team that is just really trending up in the right direction defensively and already has this amazing offense, it's just a really well-balanced basketball team and clearly the best right now. I know it's early in the season, but clearly they're the best team right now. I thought the defense in the Miami game and the Nets game went to another level. Miami

scored a lot of points. They came in in overtime and they shot the ball pretty well, but if you watch the game, they made crazy shots. I mean, Lowry made five moon balls with a hand in his face. Butler made four or five of the craziest crunch time shots that I've seen him make. Bam was looked like athletically the game was too fast for him. I know he was coming back from an injury, but I would be alarmed by that if I was the Suns,

that athletically the Celts just looked like they were at a different level than them. But yeah, I think the key thing with the Celts is I don't even know what I would... I said this to Barrett last night. I don't even know what my tweak would be. We'd be like, other than Rob coming back, you can't see like, oh man, and then at the deadline, dot, dot, dot. It's like,

they don't need anything. Like, Hauser's playing the Gallinari minutes. You know? Griffin, once a week, Blake, pick up Blake. He's been great. Just throw him out there. It's once a week, 20 minutes. Awesome. And they're so deep with guards that Brogdon's like, oh, is your calf like 1% iffy? Take the game off. We'll just play Derek White and Pritchard. So they have depth in the right spots. And the only concern I have is

just the Tatum Brown, the minute load, which those guys like just 36, 38, 39, 40 minutes a night. It doesn't matter if it's back to back. Those guys just want to play and they have the right attitude. They want to kick everybody's ass. But I think at some point you got to manage that a little bit. I do think they're focused on the first seed versus Milwaukee. Cause I think they saw how important that was last year. So, you know, Milwaukee at some point, well,

they'll start resting Giannis a little bit. There's really nobody else in the East unless Cleveland can go on some crazy run. Right now, the Celts are 21-5. Cleveland's four and a half games back. Cleveland's a good regular season team. Like, I could just, like, they're kind of built for the ebb and flow of it.

They can miss different guys. That's it, though. It's just those three in the East, right? There's nobody else I don't think could make a run. No. I feel like the Celtics are kind of in their own tier, personally. I do, too. At least regular season.

Right. All due respect to Giannis, Chris Middleton coming back looks really good. But we know that team marches when we we know that team, March is when we'll know it then when Ingles comes back. And we get to see everybody. I'm not

even thinking about Milwaukee until March. Sure. So I mean, the fact that the Celtics again, haven't played a second with their third best player who is just this game-changing presence, really speaks well and bodes well for their future

because there's so much room for improvement on the defensive end. There's no reason why they can't have the... I don't know if it's too late in the year for them to have the best defense in the NBA with how well Cleveland and Milwaukee have played on that end. But they could finish top three

in defensive rating pretty easily. I don't know who's catching them on offense. Just a really well-balanced team right now. You're right. They don't really need anything. If anything, teams should be calling for Peyton Pritchard, trying to trade

for him because he's really, really good. It makes me mad that he can't play just for him because anytime they bring him in,. It makes me mad that he can't play just for him because he is like anytime they bring him in, he's ready. So they play Golden State Saturday night. No Wiggins in that game. And it's a revenge game for the Souths. And then Clippers-Lakers back-to-back

Monday and Tuesday. And then they have this seven game homestand that starts out with two straight Orlando Magic games in a row. Indiana, Timberwolves without Towns, and then a big Bucks game on Christmas, followed by Houston and the Clippers. So if they could stay healthy, this is going to be a pretty nice stretch for them. All right. Good to see you. What's your next piece?

Well, we got the Celtics piece. Should be on the site on Friday on their defense and how great it's starting to be. But besides that, you know, there's so much happening in the league. I got to dig in, got to go under the hood. All right. We love having you. Good to see you, Michael. Thanks, Bill. Looking to get more out of this NFL season. Now is the perfect time to download FanDuel America's number one sportsbook.

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Sign up now. Just search Movember. Peter Schrager is here taping this late morning Pacific time on Thursday. Let's talk about the San Francisco 49ers and my guy, Mr. Irrelevant. Yeah. Jimmy might come back. Maybe not. Who knows? My question is, do they need them? Do they have enough? And I've been thinking about it for four days. I went through some recent NFL history, just trying to figure out how conceivable it is. But first, before we do that, let me hear your take on what you're hearing from the San Francisco side. Yeah. And I thought you did a nice job Monday morning. Just giving the big picture on who Purdy is and Sal was pushing back. Are you still talking about Brock Purdy? It is a cool story. Obviously,

you gave the high school and the college story of it, but he does have 41 career starts, owns all the records. And in the combine process, obviously, I work for the NFL network on the draft. I have to go deep dive on all these guys. And there was some buzz around him. I think there was a surprise that he slipped to the seventh round and certainly the last pick. Now, some things to take away from that. The way it went in San Francisco this offseason is Jimmy G wasn't around. So you had Trey Lance and that was all the focus. But the number two during camp was Brock Purdy. So he was getting a lot of reps and he was also playing on the scout team. So a lot of that stuff with Fred Warner and Eric Armstead and Nick Bosa breathing down his neck and getting

their number one reps was with Brock Purdy as the scout team guy. So you'd hear some buzz that he was playing pretty good. Then Jimmy comes back and now Brock Purdy's irrelevant. He's a practice squad third guy, whatever. Trey Lance goes down, Brock Purdy again is the number two guy. And he earned a lot of respect from those defensive players. So part of the big obstacle when you get these young quarterbacks is that the rest of the team is like, who the hell is this guy? I live it all in the field and I've trained my whole career to get to this point. And you're as a team going to put this guy on the field. That's not the vibe. And the team backed it up by A, not putting even a waiver claim in for

Baker Mayfield. B, not calling up Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger. You know what? You know why? Because they saw the tape on those guys, their last few starts. Baker Mayfield is not better than Brock Purdy at this point. He's not. And he hasn't been there. And Cam Newton was terrible for three years. Yeah. And those guys haven't been there since May, learning the offense, sitting in the room with Brian Greasy, who is the quarterback's coach, and learning from the Kyle Shanahan offense what they need at the quarterback position. Look, he's six foot one. He's a big guy. He can move. And the words that I listen to are the players. And you hear during the week that he called a timeout without Kyle Shanahan calling the timeout on the sideline, and the team kind of liked it. They're like, all right, he's a rookie.

And then you hear Fred Warner come out and say, he played against us the entire year. He's our scout team quarterback. He's facing the number one defense. And then Trent Williams told Bridget Condon from the NFL Network that the stuff he's got is Peyton Manning traits. And you're like, okay, slow down. But he means cerebral stuff, like above the neck, all that stuff that the guy is smart

enough to not kill you in a big spot now. And he's got a little charisma, a little swagger too last week. That's what, like, he definitely did not have deer in the headlights. It was the opposite. No, totally. And I've gone through, I've got a whole research department that works on our show and I like really put the screws to him this week. And I'm gone through, I've got a whole research department that works on our show and I really put the screws to them this week. And I'm like, guys, we got to do something on Purdy. And historically speaking, who's done it?

And A, there's no precedent for a quarterback after Thanksgiving who's never played before coming in and doing this. There's nothing. There's nothing even close. There's some in the past. There's some Jeff Hostetler. Yeah. Way back. There was Earl M so you got way back there was a couple yeah give us a couple of them you know

it started with like you know tobin wrote in the 57 lions we're not going to go back all the way there but you said earl morale and or earl moral sorry and then um you know doug williams only started two games for that for that washington team. And Jay Schrader was the guy. But in the final regular season game, they benched him for Williams. And he goes on the run. I mentioned Haas Dettler. Foles came in in week 14 after the ACL. So that was that.

There's Brock Eisweiler kind of counts. He came in week 10, but he's out for the playoffs. But the most comparable situation, and it's not Trent Dilfer because he was a first-round pick and he came in after nine weeks, is Sean King when he was with the Buccaneers. What was that, 99? That was 99. They didn't finish the job.

But Sean King came in after Trent Dilfer got injured in week 13. And Eric Zier was the number two for that Buccaneers squad. And both of those guys go down. So you lose both of them and it's Dilfer and Zier. They're not able to go. And Sean King comes in as a rookie at a Tulane and he won some big games. He won a playoff game. I bet on him.

I won some money on Sean King. I finally remember him. You know, they were a Burt Emanuel play away, He won a playoff game. I bet on him. I won some money on Sean King. I finally remember him. You know, they were a Burt Emanuel play away, which changed the rule and a Ricky Proll catch away. But also very similar to this Niners team. All defense just don't hurt you, Sean King. Who was the defensive captain of that team?

Who was it? John Lynch. John Lynch, who is now the GM of the 49ers. And I texted Lynchie this week and I'm like, is there any Sean King parallel? He goes, I know the Sean of the 49ers. And I texted Lynchie this week and I'm like, is there any Sean King parallel? He goes, I know the Sean King story very well. I'm not going to make a parallel to that, but off the record, now it's on the record.

He's like, I hear, I'm picking up what you're dropping. Basically, this could be that in a lot of ways. And they've got the support of the front office, the coaching staff and the players. And I'm not picking them to win the Super Bowl, but I'm not picking against them to at least make a little run here and do something. And I think this is the first big test this week. There's two teams in the 21st century

that at least have the blueprint for how this could work. I went through everybody. And I don't want to go into the 20th century because I just think football really changes. And I think once we get into the 21st, at least it's a little more like what it is now. 2000 Ravens, you mentioned. Dilfer. Dilfer's

playoff stats are unbelievable. First of all, in the regular season, they scored 29 touchdowns, 30 plus points four times. So they weren't impotent offensively. But you get to the playoffs. Well, wait. The 2000 Ravens, they bench Tony Banks after eight games

and then throw Dilfer in like yeah yeah you know they weren't completely impotent though is my point but they get to the playoffs and they're basically like

Dilfer just fucking steer the car he throws 73 passes total in the playoffs he's 35 for 73 he's 590 yards total in the playoffs four games not three right it. He's 590 yards total in the playoffs.

Four games, not three. Right? It wasn't just, they didn't have the buys. So the four playoff games, he's less than 150 a game. Three touchdowns, one pick, one fumble. Their scores in the four games, they beat Denver 21-3. They beat Tennessee 24-10. They beat Oakland 16-3.

And they beat the Giants 34-7 where they got some defensive stuff. And I think if you're going to make the case for the Niners, the playoffs are looking like that where it's like 21-3, 20-14, 17-10. That's how it has to be.

And could they do it with Brock Perry? So here's the other one. Well, wait. I mean, you remember in that thing, like Dilfer goes seven and one to end the regular season. They go four and oh, but if you remember, you know, Shannon Sharp had a big game against Denver. That was the big story there. But like Syragusa sits on Rich Gannon's leg in the first drive of the game in the AFC championship game.

And that's their defense. And then Jermaine Lewis runs back the kick in the Super Bowl. That's the special teams. That's what the Niners need. You're spot on. The defense, I think, has a chance to be almost as good as that.

That Ravens team was, that OO team was ridiculous. That was probably the best defense of this century. So the other team is the 2015 Broncos. We mentioned Osweiler earlier. 32 touchdowns that year for them.

They scored 30 plus twice in 16 games. Osweiler probably played seven games. They scored 30 plus twice in 16 games. Osweiler probably played seven games. They finished the year. This is crazy. 24th offense in DVOA, first in defense. 28th pass offense. 31 turnovers for the season.

There were two turnovers a game. Manning, they get to the playoffs. They only have to play three games because they got to buy. Manning's 51 for 92 in three games, 539 yards. That's about one, like 175 a game, two touchdowns, one pick, two fumbles. And the scores were Pittsburgh, they beat 23-16. They beat New England 20-18, which is still an awful Patriots loss. I never want to talk about that game again. Carolina, they went in the Super Bowl 24-10. So they scored 23-20-24. And I think if you're making the case for the Niners and Brock Purdy, it's that Broncos team more than anyone because Manning was pretty much done at that

point. He had no arm strength anymore. Purdy can at least throw the ball better than him. That Super Bowl run, I followed the Broncos for fox they just like kind of embedded me with them and i went to all their playoff games and what was really interesting was everyone makes it about peyton manning and that was demarcus where's super bowl run in that building like that was all it's win one for demarcus like he was the leader on defense and the defense was what was doing it and in those playoff games you remember uh you know obviously dante skarnecchia wasn't the coach that won here. And the Patriots offensive line was obliterated by that Broncos defensive line.

But Manning had those two touchdown passes to Owen Daniels early in that game. Two good throws. That's all he needed, those two. And then it was like defense, take it away. I remember Gronk had that crazy drive at the end and the catches. Brady got concussed in that game too.

They'll never admit it, but Brady got crushed in that game and was in a fog for three quarters. And then they go to the Super Bowl and Cam gets knocked around by Von Miller and Dexter Jackson and the defense led the way. So that Broncos team finished 15-4.

Probably the worst offensive team that's won the title in the last 15 years since the rules changed. Yeah, since they basically changed the contact rules on pass interference and stuff like that.

The other thing with them was they caught the conference and the league at the right time, right? It's a Patriots team where they had some injuries that year and then Brady gets hurt

in the game. The NFC was kind of goofy. Like Carolina made the Super Bowl. Carolina went 15- injuries that year and then Brady gets hurt in the game. The NFC was kind of goofy. Like Carolina made the Super Bowl. Carolina went 15 and one that year. Do you remember the NFC championship game? And you go back and you're like, how did that team go 15 and one? Carolina, Arizona, NFC championship game. Right.

Carson Palmer. Yes. So, you know, you think like this year, like moving forward to the West this year, Philly's the only good team. So really the question is, can they go into Philly and beat this team? And then the second question to that is, they have the perfect team to go into Philly and beat this team

as long as Brock Purdy doesn't fuck it up. Defensively, they can take away the run. They can rush Hurts. I do think Philly answered some questions in that Titans game that at least I had. Can you do something different? They're like, yeah, we actually can. We're going to throw the ball this whole game. So I think they have a higher ceiling than maybe

I thought a week ago. And they're still going to be favored. But I do think a great defense can go in and win anywhere. Cold weather, you know, 20 degrees outside, but then you get Brock Purdy in 20-degree weather. My point is, I'm not writing off San Francisco yet. I still have him second. Look, if any

team is going to beat the Eagles, it's that kind of team that just takes the air completely out of the ball and says, yeah, you got a great offensive line, but we got a great defensive line. If there's any unit in football that can go up against Jeff Stoutland's offensive line, it's Chris Kucerec's defensive line.

And I would pay to see that ticket right there, those bodies clashing, because the Eagles offensive line is by far the best at what they do. And the Niners defensive line is by far the best at what they do. What I loved last week was the little story out of San Francisco was that in the Saturday night pregame talk before this big showdown with the Dolphins, Kyle Shanahan kind of jokingly almost said, hey, defensive line, we need something out of you. The linebackers have been carrying you all season and like called out, you know, Nick Bosa. I saw Bosa got mad, right?

And that wasn't like Bosa being like, you know, busting chops elbow. He did not like it and did not like that. He went and had three and a half sacks. And Eric Armstead's just sucking up, just sucking up offensive linemen while Bosa's running free. They are so good on defense and so good up front that they're going to be able to be competitive with anyone.

I look at the Eagles. Well, they certainly, too, have seen some ghosts last week. Now, granted, it's missing his tackles, but I went back and I watched some of the... I watched it live, but then I went back and I watched some of it again. There was some happy feet stuff going on by second half with him. It was like,

holy shit, what's going on here. I'd love for you to go on Twitter, which is, is often a hellscape, but go on Twitter and look at that moment where Tua starts the game with the Trent Shurfield touchdown. The amount of people being like MVP, MVP,

MVP. I work on a daily show. The balloon on the Tua thing has kind of been deflated. Joe Burrow kind of took it. He's like, hey, I'll take that. Thanks. Tua's primetime this weekend against the Chargers. Everyone's going to be watching.

And then Tua's on a Saturday night game against the Bills the following week. So I think the Tua, we're all going to be watching Tua. And we've already saw him last week. Watch him for the next two weeks. He can silence a lot of doubters or he can prove a lot of doubters wrong.

Or right. I'll give him benefit of not having his tackles. That's the wrong thing. Not every tackle is good. One last thing on the Broncos. I mean, on the Niners. And I say this out of respect

to Kyle Shanahan. Is there another coach in the league who would enjoy trying to win a Super Bowl more with Brock Purdy? Like, is there another coach in the league who can figure out how to use a mediocre to worst quarterback in the right ways with the offense they have and what they're trying to do?

Like, all this guy has to do, just throw some quick bubble screens, throw some screens, just have poise. Don't get rid of it. He'll ask them to make what, two throws a game that actually are hard throws. Other than that, everything is going to be designed, scripted, thought out,

and he'll just put this guy in a position to succeed. Deep down, I think he's probably like, hmm, I kind of like this. He'll never admit it. I mean, we go back to Greek mythology. The word is hubris. A little bit of like this, like, you know what? I'm pretty good at what I do. And I don't think he's got that because that's like a false sense of arrogance. But I think there is a bit of, hey, this is a challenge and I'm up for it. And if I go through Kyle's career, like, you know,

Matt Schaub was a good quarterback coming out of Virginia. I think Matt Schaub was awesome with Kyle in Houston and like, they got the very most out of him. And I remember when Kyle got the job in San Francisco, that was the Mahomes to Sean Watson, um, Mitch Trubisky draft. And they traded out of the second pick and they took Solomon Thomas. And then they would take, uh, the linebacker Ruben Foster later on Foster, later on. And no one really quite thought, all right, build it. And they rolled out Brian Hoyer week one as their starting quarterback. And in Kyle's head, it was like, we could be competitive with Brian Hoyer as our starter. We don't need a young guy. We'll be all right. But then they traded for Jimmy and then they went and they traded all

those picks for Trey Lance. I still think he's chasing that, like, the dream Kyle Shanahan quarterback, when at the bottom line is, his offense is good enough, their blocking is good enough, and the running game with McCaffrey now, and of course the host of other guys. Yeah, I would say McCaffrey is more the dream Shanahan person than

any quarterback, right? Him and Debo together, you know, using them the way they do. The way he's fallen in with that team is predictable, but it's still kind of amazing to watch. Honestly, it looks, you know, using them the way they do. The way he's fallen in with that team was predictable, but it's still kind of amazing to watch. Honestly, it looks like he got dropped out

of the sky for them. He looks great in the uniform. I think he deserves. How about when they run those little wheel routes with him? It's like, who's better at this

specific thing than him? It's funny. The NFL does their Pro Bowl games voting and, you know, the votes come out and it's like the results and it's all fans,

so it's whatever. And, you know, Christian McCaffrey's all fans. So it's whatever. And Christian McCaffrey is number four. And I'm thinking to myself, I love Josh Jacobs. I love Derrick Henry. I was like, what Christian McCaffrey has done to be traded in a mid-season, be like, yeah, pick up an offense, find myself involved. Yeah. Swiss Army knife. It's pretty incredible what he's done on an individual level. And I think they're using him great and he's only going to get his workload increased, especially now with Mitchell out.

I really liked the Niners. And I think you're right. This is a weird year for the NFC. It's, it's the, it's the Eagles who are looking amazing, but they haven't been there with hurts yet. And those big games where they've won the Cowboys who have not won a big

game in decades. And then of course, I have them a notch lower. I don't trust the Cowboys. Since this goes plus 450 on FanDuel in Minnesota, who you're about to talk about,

it's plus 650. Can we do quick Vikings just overall? I mean, let's do that after the break. Last point, because we're going to take a break.

Yeah. We were kind of down on the quality of the teams this season. Right? It was like, what a weird season. Don't know what to make of it. There teams this season. Right. It was like, what a weird season. Don't know what to make of it.

There's no stability. And now it's like, man, if we got Kansas city, Cincinnati, and then Philly, San Francisco as our two conference title games, those games are fucking awesome.

Yeah. Since he, Casey is like the number one, sign me up for that game game. Now I think that's supplanted Buffalo Casey for me. Um, especially cause Buffalo's losing Von Miller, some injuries in the secondary. We don't know what's wrong with Josh.

I think Cincinnati is a safer bet to have an awesome game against Kansas City. Now we'll see, Buffalo could prove me wrong in the next two weeks, but those four teams plus Buffalo as the wild card, those are five really good teams that I think would all be fun in the Super Bowl, right? Let me tell you, we had Thanksgiving Day, which was like three really

good matchups. And teams kind of figured themselves out. 42 million people watched the Giants and the Cowboys. On Christmas Eve, the Eagles play the Cowboys, which might decide the NFC East. Holy shit. That's going to be a massive number. And then a crazy stroke of good luck for the Monday Night Football folks. And I know Disney and ESPN are on far better place with the NFL than they might have been a decade ago when they're getting a game like this.

Buffalo Cincinnati on a Monday night game, January 2nd. So we have two monster regular season games. By the way, that could be for a two seed. Yeah. Could be for everything. It's great. So like before we get

to the playoffs, we still have those two massive regular season games and that's not even including the week 18 slate, which is all the divisional battles that, you know,

it could be up for grabs in a lot of ways. Well, the reason I wanted to lead with San Francisco, other than I think it's fascinating and I think they're going

to be better than people. I also watch Purdy, so maybe I'm a little biased. I love the Niners this week against the Bucks. And we're going to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash businessplatinum.

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Give what up? Really? Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. All right, we're going to bang through some games, and we'll talk about the Vikings because they're in one of the games. But a couple of the games that I was looking at, we did well last week, by the way. It was that first good week, And we're going back to the

basics. We're doing straight up picks, not doing crazy teasers, parlays, all that shit. We're just going straight up, trying to go four and one, five and oh, three and two. We've had back to back good weeks. Yeah. I feel very good about million dollar picks right now. Niners are three and a half point favorites over the Bucs. Okay. It's in San Francisco. And the reason it's only three and a half is because of Brock Purdy. So I have multiple questions here.

I'll start here. If New Orleans just wins that game 16 to three because Mark Ingram doesn't get hurt as he's running for a first down and that game was 16 to three. I think this line is six. Maybe six and a half.

I think Tampa's terrible. I do. I think they're a terrible team. I think they're below average. I think the NFC South's terrible. I think they're terrible. I think they threw us off their scent in that

Germany game against Seattle? They had 26 first downs against Seattle and it's like, oh, Tampa coming together. But the more we look at that Seattle team, their defense is just atrocious. That was a Seattle's defense is atrocious game, not a Tampa's back game. They're still missing their right tackle. They can't run the ball. They're inept every first quarter. How many points per game do you think they're averaging in the first half this season? Can't be much. What would your guess be? First half scoring? 7.5?

10? 8.1. 8.1. Not good. They average 8.1 points per first quarter. First half. And over and over, they pulled two games out of their assholes, right?

They're six and six. They should have lost the Rams game. They 1000% should have lost the saints game. The Dennis Allen, that was the worst. I know really it's, it's hard to even believe this is true, but that was the worst coaching the entire year.

Right. Dan Campbell, some of the other things we've seen that took the cake. And I just don't think they're good. And I think San Francisco's defense by themselves is going to cover the three and a half. Is there anything other than Tom Brady versus Brock Purdy that you can think of that scares you?

Because if you're going to throw that at me, I'll be like, that's fine. That's a fair reason to scare you. And also like, so I went through it. Quarterbacks facing Tom Brady in their first career start over Brady. I saw that.

I didn't like this stat. I know what you're going to do. Oh, and six. But here are the guys. Luke Falk on a bad Jets team. EJ Manuel in 2013 for the Bills. Not a good team. Jake Locker in Tennessee.

Tyler Palco in 2011. And then you had Matt Flynn and Luke McCown as the final six. But like those weren't teams that have the number one defense in the league. Those weren't teams that had just won one defense in the league. Those weren't teams that had just won a week before in this massive game. And,

you know, it's funny because you get these images of Brady hugging Leftwich after these wins. These are horrendous offensive games. Yeah,

Leftwich is killing you, Brady. Don't hug him. Just walk by him. Horrendous game plans and like awful offense. And it's, you know,

we came out on the show on Tuesday and good morning football. And we're the first voice on everything. Cause it's 7.00 AM Eastern. And a lot of people probably didn't stay up for that game. And a lot of people might have seen the comeback and said, wow, Tom Brady, that's unbelievable. I had to come out. I'm like, all right. Yes. Tom Brady though. But like, that's the great deodorant for what was one of the stinkiest performances for 57 minutes from this team. And I don't think you can do that against San Francisco. They're too good. They're too well coached.

And I just, I don't know. I mean, look at this. I'm with you. The Bucs since week four, 21 points, 18-3, 22-16, 21-17-17. This is not against the San Francisco defense. I don't see how they're going to score. There's a bet on FanDuel. San Francisco wins first half and they see how they're going to score. There's a bet on FanDuel. San Francisco wins first half

and they also win the game, plus 115. So you just think they're going to go up 10-0 early and then that's it? I kind of like that almost more than the 3.5, but I'll try to figure that out later. I can't think of a single way Tampa wins

this game other than Brock Purdy completely falls apart. And I don't think Shannon's going to allow it. Yeah, I don't think so either. All right. Minnesota, you mentioned earlier. We didn't guess the lines

on Sunday night and I was like, wow, what a disrespect. What did you say? I was shocked too. What did you say when you saw that? I think I said Minnesota by one, but I was like,

I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit's the favorite. Detroit is now one and a half point favorite. They wouldn't be surprised if Detroit's the favorite. Detroit is now one and a half point favorite. They're five and seven. Minnesota's 10 and two. Football Outsider, shout out to them. Shout out to Aaron Schatz. They did some fun DVOA stuff with them. Minnesota is the worst 10 and two DVOA team ever, and it's not close. They're also the second worst nine and three DVOA team ever. So even if you throw them in the 9-3 pile, they're the second worst.

Of the 12 worst 9-3 or 10-2 DVOA teams ever, only one of them made the Super Bowl, the 99 Titans. All the other ones lost in round one or round two. There is just a staggering amount of advanced metrics evidence that this team is fraudulent. And yet we know how this goes. These are the teams that cost people money week after week, like Minnesota last week. They're just like, oh my God, I can't believe I lost that one. Minnesota is the number one I can't believe I lost that bet team we've had in the last three years. And now the Lions

are still under three. Lions, they beat last five games. They beat Green Bay, beat Chicago, beat the Giants, beat Jacksonville, and blew a winnable Thanksgiving game to Buffalo that they should have won. They have momentum. They have a good red zone offense. St. Brown, Williams looks like he's going to actually play.

Goff has been good. If the Rams didn't win the Super Bowl, that trade is a disaster. Yeah, you can have that conversation. And I look at Minnesota, I'm like, how are they going to,

like the other thing, Minnesota at Detroit this week, home Indy, home Giants at Green Bay at Chicago. So you have to ask yourself, is Minnesota going to go 15 and two?

Like at some point they're going to lose. They're 13 and four is realistic. 15, two, no. 14, three, no. They're going to go 15-2? Like, at some point, they're going to lose. 13-4 is realistic. 15-2, no. 14-3, no. They're going to lose two of the next five. So why can't it be this one?

Yeah, you know, the Minnesota thing's interesting. So it goes one of two ways. You could say they, okay, so they've won nine different one-score games. Nine, okay? And you look at it,

the Giants won seven one score games in 2000 and got to the Super Bowl. The Colts won eight one score games in 2009, got upset by the Saints. Those are the only teams to have as many. Tennessee wasn't in there last year? No, not last year. No.

Interesting. Yeah. And the Vikings though, like the way they do it, you'd see that you're like, wow, they're really great there they win these close games but Bill we watch it every week they give up these huge

leads so they're up big and the only reason is a one score games because they let them in and I went through it week four they they beat the Saints 28 25 but they were up six at the half and they need a 47 yard field goal the Bears remember week five they're up 21 to three they let team they the Bears scored 19 straight.

Dolphins, they were up. They came all the way back in the Jets last week. They come all the way back. The Jets one was the most offensive because I still have no idea how the Jets did it with that game. I know. And the Jets are chipping away, chipping away, chipping away. They stop them on fourth down. The Jets have yet another chance to do it.

But here are the other things. You could talk to the DVOA, but the Vikings over the course of the whole season have a plus 10 point differential over their opponent. So they're 10 and two, but if you take their points for and points against, they're plus 10. That's it. That's the lowest in the history of the sport by a 10 or two team after 12 games. They were also outscored 64 to 10 in those two losses, both of those games being in front of national TV, which was the Eagles Monday night game. And of course the Cowboys game, which we all watched and we're like, what the hell?

So, well, they also have the, the, the crazy turnover luck. They're plus eight with turnovers. Yeah. Which makes no sense because they have Kirk cousins and it's not like they're an awesome team on either side of the ball. No. So I'm just like everyone, a lot of Vikings fans in my life, a lot of Vikings viewers of our show,

Gamora football, you've got your friend, Jeff Gallo, I think his name is. Yeah. They say they do this thing where they're like, you know, why are we,

you know, not the Rodney Dangerfield, but like, why don't we get respect? Respect? Like, I think, you know why you don't get respect.

If you watch these games every week, it's hard to look at the Vikings at 10 and two and be like, that is a powerhouse. When every team comes in, in the last quarter and just at 10-2 and be like, that is a powerhouse when every team comes in in the last quarter and just outscores them and makes this thing a complete rollercoaster ride every single week. I'm not shocked. I might not end up betting the

Lions because of the nobody believes in us factor. The nobody believes in us 10-2 team. Because I think this is a thing now with the Vikings. Wait a second. We're underdogs against a 5-7 team. We're 10-2. There's a 5-win difference between second. We're underdogs against a 5-7 team? We're 10-2. There's a five-win difference between us?

We're underdogs? Really? So I don't know if it, Kevin O'Connell, I don't know if he's a nobody-believes-in-us speech guy. Oh, he could play any card he needs to get the team motivated. Yeah, he could do it. And I saw it on one of the betting sites that it's the biggest win differential

for two teams in recent history and one team being favored by the other despite having like five less wins, which is significant. Yeah. So just give us your 30 seconds. And do you think this Lions thing is real at all? No, I don't think it's this year. I think it's a great story and I love what they're doing, but you're right. You mentioned Jamison Williams. You see Aiden Hutchinson. You see Kirby Joseph. You see the Kid Houston.

They're the team that next August, everybody is talking, this is your sleeper team. Let's talk about them as a possible NFC champion. But you don't think some of the stuff they've done offensively,

like the fact that their pass rush has been coming on a little. It's been great. You're not believing. I think it's too little too late. And I know the NFC is wide open. I just don't see a wild card spot for them in the cards.

63% of the money on Minnesota, 69% of the bets, according to FanDuel. So maybe they're not a nobody believes in this team. I'm marking them down. A couple other ones that I was intrigued by.

Well, I know we're doing this one. Steelers, Ravens. Just riding the Steelers, man. The Steelers have been good to us week after week after week. We've had a lot of luck winning outright, but also they've done well in games where they haven't won yet still performed.

So I would say I do not. And they're getting better every week. Steelers minus two and a half over the Ravens. It's in Pittsburgh. Steelers are still alive for the playoffs. I think there's so many AFC teams involved that you can't say that, I mean, 10 and seven's probably the seventh seed,

but there's a chance it's nine and eight. So I think Pittsburgh and Vegas specifically are still like, hey, our season's not over. They're having all those conversations. And Baltimore offensively is pretty impotent. And now Huntley's in for Lamar, but even they shouldn't have won that Denver game. And Denver had 90 chances to put away. And as usual, they didn't. But Baltimore's somehow fourth in for Lamar, but even they shouldn't have won that Denver game. And Denver had 90 chances to put away.

And as usual, they didn't. But Baltimore somehow fourth in DVOA, but rest of the way at Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati. And I think I said this Sunday, and I believe it even more strongly. I think Baltimore or Miami doesn't make the playoffs. And my money would be on Baltimore,

but I think one of those two teams slide out. This happens every year in December. There's a team that's eight and four. Falls off a cliff. Or eight and five, whatever. And they just, all of a sudden, you're like, wow, they didn't make it. And I think it's going to be one of those two.

So then you're saying that either the Patriots, the Raiders, the Chargers. Not the Pats. Or the Steelers is going to do this. So the Steelers might be out too. Well, we're putting the Jets in? Yeah, I think you have to assume the Jets are. It's got to be, you know, one of those teams is out.

Maybe the Jets are out too then. I really think it could be Jets-Raiders. Because then the thing with Vegas, and we're taping this before they play tonight, but I assume, I would say it's a safe bet they're going to beat the John Wofford with the neck injury Rams. Or Baker.

Baker might go to the Knicks. Or Baker even better for them. But yeah, their schedule is pretty doable and I texted Lombardi during the Sunday game about how people, what are people going to say when Josh McDaniels is 9-7 playing for a playoff spot.

Everybody was trying to drive the airport. So anyway, I think the thing with them though, that, that I love and obviously just full disclosure, but Mike's son Mick is the offensive coordinator Raiders. So it's, it's, it's, it's obviously close to him. They have so many good skill position players, the Raiders remaining schedule. They have a game against the Steelers.

They have a game against the Patriots, The final two weeks for the Raiders, which is really interesting, home San Francisco, home Kansas City. There is a chance or a world that those teams aren't looking to start all their guys in the final two weeks. I mean, San Francisco, yeah, they might have three seed. That's it. And that's it. Where it's like if Seattle loses a couple, then San Francisco's like, cool, we're cruising. Yep.

Hey, Debo, sit out week 17 and all that stuff. Trent Williams, sit down, Kittle, rest. Like that could actually be a great advantage. I love the Steelers this week. I worry it's a whiff too obvious,

but I liked it on Sunday night. I think they're pretty good. I think they have good skill guys on both sides. TJ Watt back. Fitzpatrick's always kind of lingering around. I don't know. I just like the team and I like their receivers.

It feels like the receivers can make kind of two 30-yard plays a game that can swing and drive. And by the way, Pickett's not bad. Pickett's good. Pickett's gotten better for two straight months. Been watching it. Like Pickett's not bad. Pickett's good. Pickett's gotten better for two straight months. I've been watching it.

Pickett's, I would say, even a shade above average. He was a turnover machine. They go on the buy. He comes out of the buy, and he hasn't thrown any picks. He's been really focused, really dialed in. Moves around a little bit. Honestly, if you said, who would you rather have, Mack or Pickett? I think I would take Pickett.

That's fair. I don't think that's crazy. Yeah. Alright, so we like that one. Real quick, I want to say real quick on the Rams. We're going to be recording this on Thursday, whether he plays or not. Someone in the league gave me a great analogy. I know you love analogies, but the question is,

is Baker going to back up Stafford? Someone was like, this is your classic case of like two lovers just using each other for like a month, like a fling, because Baker's going to be a free agent. This is what it is.

And like they both know going in, like this is a hookup. So Baker has four weeks left to put some good film out there before his free agency. And the Rams have such a terrible quarterback situation that they're like McVay.

He knows that like every loss that the Rams get doesn't help their draft status. It goes to the Lions anyway. So he wants to at least have a chance to compete. Baker's a fun project. So this is one of those deals where it's like, the guy just broke up with a girlfriend after 10 years. The girl is same situation. Let's just have fun for a month and use each other until we can figure out what happens afterwards. But I don't see a long-term future for Baker Mayfield. This is just going to be a quick month and let's see how it goes. Let's use each other and make some money off it. He was horrible. The Panthers are four and eight and they should be six and six. I thought McVay tried really hard last week to win that game. I thought he was locked in.

He did. He wants to win really badly. He wanted to win. He wanted to beat. Yeah, I saw it. Panthers, Seahawks was another one I was looking at. Sal and I, the line was six on Sunday. I was like, oh my God, I'm betting that. Now it's down to four. It got to like three and a half.

It came back up and I just don't think Seattle. I'm kind of out. I think their defense is insurmountable. And now Walker's hurt. Kenneth Walker, they're good running back. He's probably not playing on Sunday,

but man, you think like they're Seattle's 20th and DVOA they're seven and five. Other than Justin Herbert, the quarterbacks they've gone against Russell Wilson, the Lance game where Lance broke his ankle and Jimmy had to come in. Mariota, Goff, Dalton,

Kyler, dimes, McCoy, 46 year old, Tom Brady, Derek Carr and Wolford. And there's still 20 at DVOA. And they gave up 40 to Vegas. They gave up 26 first downs to Tampa.

They gave up 39 to the Saints. They had John Wolford drove for a go-ahead touchdown with four minutes left on them. And Geno had to come back and make like five great throws to save the game. I just don't see it with them. I don't see it defensively. And I think Carolina can run the ball on them.

And guess what? They're not, they have the worst pass rush in the league. If Sam Darnold just gets to hang out back there, he'll be okay. I'm actually confident in them. And Carolina, again, we've said it every week, they're not out of the NFC South because everyone sucks. So I think they win. I think plus four, but I also like them to win too.

I'm fine with that. I think the Kenneth Walker injury is big for the Seahawks. He was having this amazing season. That's a foot injury. That scares me a little bit. And Seattle had to pull that one out of the skin of their teeth or whatever their analogy is of the saying. But you understand they're playing the Rams last week and they really struggled. And I'm curious to see what they have to come out here. Carolina also coming off a late season bye, which is always a good thing to get healthy, to get rested.

They're going to be prepared. I'm fine with that. You like Foreman, right? I love Foreman. I thought he was good last year. I think he was good this year. I don't mind their team and I think they like their coach.

And DJ Moore and Darnold have always been good. DJ Moore is a really talented player and Darnold always has had an ability to get the ball to him. It's the other guys that haven't been able to. At Seattle this week,

Pittsburgh, Detroit at home next to, at Tampa, and then New Orleans. So even if they go two or three the next two weeks, there's still a chance they could win those last two, go eight and nine,

and win the NFC South. I think they can go four and nine and win the NFC South. I think they can go four and one and win the NFC South. People think I'm nuts with this Carolina thing. I'll never give up. He will not give up. I just won't.

I think the division's awful. I think Tampa's terrible. I'm so happy that I just bet the Saints spread instead of the money line with them because I would have had a stroke during that game

watching Dennis Allen just figure out 19 different ways to speed that game up. I don't even blame DA. Like, the player, Mark Ingram, he's a 12-year veteran. Mark Ingram's got to know better, right? What about the third and one screen to the receiver? Like, whatever that cut was that bounced off his helmet

and then punting it. And then punting it the next day. If you're going to do that, throw it on third and then say, let's put the game on ice on fourth and run the ball. You got to taste some hell. There was a million things. Also, the defense at the end.

But you're not putting on DA. You just listed three terrible coaching strategies in 10 seconds. Six defensive backs. Prevent defense. Brady's going to slice you up. Prevent defense against Brady. He's just going to throw 10-yard outs to the sideline. What are you doing?

That was awful. Last one. Jets plus 9-and-a-half against the Bills in Buffalo. It's a kitchen sink game for the Jets. It is. They're seven and five. They still have after this Detroit-Jacksonville home at Seattle at Miami in the last week.

I think the Jets are legitimately good. I will keep saying that. I think they're in all these games. I think Mike White, I know he didn't get it done in the red zone, but there was some Twitter clip about some of the throws that he made in that game. He made like six or seven

of the most awesome throws. Mike White's good. Garrett Wilson is like a legitimate star. They can run the ball. 162 yards last week. So the only question, you can run on them. There's no question you can is like a legitimate star. They can run the ball. 162 yards last week. So the only question, you can run on them. There's no question you can run on them a little.

I just don't know, like, is Devin Singletary going to shred them for 180 yards? I think they can hang in the game. I like the plus nine and a half. They beat him once. Beat him once. Um,

I can't in good faith, not think that the bills are going to try to just blow them out of the building especially off the Von Miller news that people are doubting them. They still have the number one seed. This is in Buffalo. It's hard. This is a big ask for the Jets. Is it a big ask for them to keep it close and hang around? I think so. I think it is. I think you're fair to bet it. It's fine. It's fine to think that they're going to be within one score. It's also, I could see this one being 31-10 and the Bills being like, here's our statement to the rest of the league.

I'm not telling you one way or the other. I would not touch this game. Buffalo is Miami the next week. On a Saturday night at home. It's like a shade kind of leaning over this game, right? It's like, we're good.

We'll get through the Jets. Then we got to worry about Miami and the speed. The Novan Miller thing's a real thing. And I think the Pats were so bad in that Thursday night game and their strategy, everything was just so stupid that it made Buffalo seem better than they were. And you're right, I'm attacking the pats because they deserve it. That team that they had no pass rush.

Basically the only thing they had on defense was team speed. The secondary is a little weak and we don't throw the ball downfield at all on them at all. We're just doing like quick out stupid shit and screens and fat. And it's like, this is exactly what they want us to do. Why are we doing it this way? You saw Mac getting frustrated.

Finally, he was right. It was stupid. Challenge them. You have time. Three step drop. Set your feet. Throw it downfield. What the fuck?

Anyway, I don't think Buffalo. I think that you look at that Detroit game and then the Pats game. Why do they only have 24 points against us too? That was the other thing. I get it. I don't know. I think that think Buffalo, I think that you look at that Detroit game and then the Pats game. Why do they only have 24 points against us too? I get it. I get it. I don't know. I think the Jets, nine and a half is a lot of points.

And the Jets have a really good defense. There's garbage time stuff. I like that one. For underdog parlay, I didn't really love a lot of stuff. Was there any underdogs that you love? Like you feeling frisky with the Giants? We like Carolina. I don't see Giants. The Giants

big game, yes, of course because Kyle Brandt on our show today was like, this is the biggest game the Giants have had since they went to the playoffs five years ago. No, next week is. I said next week's the game. They're not chasing Philly. Next week, Washington Sunday night, winner probably goes to the playoffs. That's next week's game.

You know, I could see Little Broncos adjusted against the Chiefs. What's the adjusted though? What do we have? Broncos 4.5 to keep it close. 4.5. Plus 4.5. Defense keeping it close. I don't want to go against Mahomes. No, I don't want to go against Mahomes. Mahomes has never

lost to those Broncos either. So Jets adjusted plus 4.5. What's the Browns Bengals situation? never lost to those Broncos either. So Jets suggested plus four and a half. What's the Browns-Bengals situation? I'm not going against the Bengals. Okay. Did you see Deshaun throwing grounders for four quarters last week?

He played terribly. Not going near him. For whatever reason, the Browns do not lose to Joe Burrow. So if you're going historically, there's a chance of that one being a little bit of an upset, but I'm with you.

I'm not picking that one, especially after last week. How good Cincinnati looks. Panthers to win. Jets adjusted to 4.5 is plus 640. Can it be a four-point game? I'm just throwing that one out. Other underdogs, we have...

Hold on. Which Dolphins Chargers? That one intrigues me. I looked at the Chargers too because that's a little kitchen sink game for the Dolphins Chargers? That one intrigues me. So I looked at the Chargers too because that's a little kitchen sink game for the Chargers. Chargers are plus 150. I can see it. I don't know.

Chargers Panthers? Little dabble? Let's go. All right. Chargers. Chargers Panthers. God, I love the Panthers. Nobody's loved the Panthers more than me.

It's pathetic. That's plus 580. You've loved the Panthers over the course of two head coaches. Yeah, I think they have talent. Two defensive coordinators, five quarterbacks. You just love that logo. I love the logo. Plus 580.

Chargers, Panthers. What do you think? Let's do it. Let's do it. All right. Peter Schrager, great to see you. What game are you most excited about this week? Last week, I told you San Fran

Miami was the big one. This week, I think Philly Giants. I think we're going to have a lot of people looking at the Giants and thinking, what are they? But I want to see what the Eagles do because they have now done two in a row showing they can win both ways. What's up, doggy? Murph didn't like that.

Murph, we're not going to bet the Giants. Don't worry. Murph, I'm just saying it's going to be a game. I'm intrigued by that game. Murph We're not gonna bet the Giants Don't worry Murph I'm just saying It's gonna be a game I'm intrigued by that game Murph said Don't bet the Giants That's it

Shregs good to see you You're the man dude Thank you Ben Solak is here From the Ringer We're gonna play The matchup game We had a lot of fun

With this last week You nailed the big matchup Fred Warner against Miami. Fred Warner wins. Tua loses. We're not going to overreact to that. Week 14 coming up. What do you got?

What's number one most important matchup that you're excited about? I love that we're not overreacting to that because I feel like every single person in the world is currently overreacting. He had no left tackle, no right tackle. I mean, come on. And also, there's no more Freds. They're going to put 30 on the Chargers because Chargers linebackers cannot hang.

I have no doubt. We'll see. First matchup for me is Eagles-Giants. To me, this is the game with so much run for the Giants just because the NFC wildcard race is going to be a tough one. And then the Eagles, who have to save off the Cowboys for the division. Giants. Blitz defense against Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts against the Blitz is the number one matchup for this game.

Giants, 40.8% Blitz percentage, which is the highest in the league. And when Jalen Hurts has struggled, it's typically been against the Blitz. Going back to games like the one he played against the Cardinals earlier in the season, the one he played against the Bucs in the division round playoffs last year. This season, Jalen Hurts is fourth in EPA per dropback when not blitzed. He's 17th when blitzed. This is the thing that takes the Eagles passing offense and makes it more manageable. The reason is because the Eagles' typical response to the blitz is to throw screens. They love screens. I thought I had seen the guy who's going to love screens the most,

Andy Reid, watched him for 15 years. Nick Sirianni, baby, just one more step up. They'll throw a screen no matter what. And when you get blitz packages, screens tend to be nice, desirable play calls, right? There's too many bodies behind the line of scrimmage. You get a couple of lead blockers, you can rip off a chunk gain. But with the depth of target so low,

like they're throwing behind the line of scrimmage, now it just becomes yards after catch, rally, tackle, it simplifies the game. If Jalen Hurts isn't throwing 30 yards down the field, A.J. Brown against Nick McCloud in this banged up Giants corner room, the Giants are winning defensively. They're forcing the Eagles

to be this screen heavy, underneath heavy team against the Blitz. So Hurts is struggling against the Blitz over the course of his career. We've seen him have bad games against the Blitz here and there.

Still generally a great offense, but the Giants have the sort of defensive play calls to hit some of the pressure points for this Eagles offense. Could make it closer than people expect. It sounds like Ben Solak, Eagles fan, is a little worried about this game. I have the Giants covering. Sheil has the Eagles covering.

I have the Giants covering. I think that this is an uglier game, a tougher game, a nastier game than people expected it to be. I think it's going to be weird. Wasn't this a year ago when Jalen sucked in the Giants game? I think I blocked it out of my mind because I bet on the Eagles and the Tees. Didn't that happen or am I crazy? It might have been. I'm trying to

remember as well. There were a couple games in December. It was really rough. 13-7, they lost. 129 yards passing. He just kind of sucked and then sucked again in Tampa. Your team, playing off everything you just said, I was really impressed with how they did something different

in that Tennessee game. We're like, hey, can you guys stop this? I was watching Sirianni on the sidelines especially, and there's like a real swagger with him now. I don't know, you've been watching this the whole time. Have you noticed, a real swagger with him now. Have you, I don't know, you've been watching this the whole time. Have you noticed like what's the deal with him, with the Eagles, with the city?

Because when they hired him, it was like this, oh, they're just hiring Roseman Robot. Terrible first press conference. And it's like, oh, they just put their guy in. He's going to suck. And it's like, he's the opposite of sucks. I think he's been one of the five best coaches this year.

And he really seems like he has command of the team. I always love this stuff on the sidelines. I love to see how guys are reacting to each other. It just seems like he's in command. Am I imagining that? No, I agree. I call Sirianni the pander king because he just loves to express how from Philly he is,

even though he's not from Philly at all. Hassan Reddick, who the Eagles brought in a free agency, went to the University of Temple as a Philly guy. For the first few weeks of the season, he didn't have a sack yet. He was in the locker room getting asked about it, like, you know, you don't have a sack, so on and so forth. Then the next game, he shows out as a critical sack. In the locker room, Sirianni runs by when the reporters are talking to him and goes like,

There it is. I told you, a Son Reddick sack. I knew it. Temple! And he just yells Temple. He just screams out the school name just to emphasize that Son Reddick is from here. He just has that to him, right? Then they beat the Colts. He's telling Eagles fans to score Frank Reich. A.J. Brown scores against the Titans. He grabs and goes, How great is it to be in Philadelphia? He's very committed to this idea of you commit to the city, you commit to the place, Kansas for Frank Reich, AJ Brown scores against the Titans. He grabs and goes, how great is it to be in Philadelphia? Like he very much like he,

he's guys very committed to this idea of like, you commit to the city, you commit to the place, you commit to the brotherhood. He's absolutely a culture coach in that way. That resonates in Philly. Philly likes being about Philly. Philly likes being an insular,

insular community. By the way, Boston's like this too. Suck up to Boston and it's great. It's always a good idea. Yeah. So I grew up in the Northeast and then I moved to the Midwest. And whenever people ask me about the differences in growing up, now I live in Michigan, which is all college towns. The thing that I say is the Northeast, all of the cities are so close to one another geographically that you end up being from a place.

I was closer geographically growing up to New York than I was to Philly, but I was in Pennsylvania. I was a Philly fan and I hated New York and I hated Boston. They were all there. I knew people from all these places. They were close. Nobody's close enough in the Midwest. None of the cities are geographically close enough, so it becomes a college thing. When you're a coach of a Northeast team, he was wearing Philly's gear during the Philly's run. You know what I'm saying?

He'll wear Sixers stuff later this year. He is the pander king. Philly likes being pandered to a little bit. When you're winning, the vibes are great because it feels like he's doing it out for the city. I was mildly impressed by the Giants last week. I thought they

did not blow the game for themselves and hung around and even like when Washington and OT, they get first down on the 43. They basically need 12 yards for a field goal to win it. And the Giants really stepped up. I was, it was this moment in the game where it's like, wow, your season could go either way right here.

And they just, I thought, I thought rose to the occasion, which we've seen them do a few times. It still feels duct tapey and smoke and mirrors to me on offense. It is. But the Dimes thing, man, when you're betting against him, he's really scary and he's doing those QB draws around the side. And he just kind of knows when to cut in at the perfect time,

every time. And it's like, it gets, you'd like want to punch a wall after a while. God damn it. Why can't we stop this guy? He's good. Yeah.

The, uh, the Washington defense came into that matchup really bad against quarterback run and it's a further testament to brian dable and by kafka the offensive coordinator there who they walked out and they called more quarterback run than they had last few weeks they're very very good at saying what do you not like we're gonna do a little bit of that today uh that is awesome until you get to a team like philadelphia right philadelphia right what they want you to do like what are we weak at it's like all right

you're gonna have to run the ball the whole game. You're going to have to convert on third and shorts the way they lost to Washington. We're going to put a blanket on top of you and you have to be incremental going down the field. If Saquon looked like Saquon did a month ago, I'd feel a lot worse about this game. You don't like one-armed Saquon? Yeah, I'm not enjoying this

as much with the injury they've had in the interior. No Shane Lemieux. It's not what they were offensively in terms of the running game. I'm still worried about Daniel Jones. I'm worried about the size of this team. Saquon's still a big back. Daniel Jones is a big quarterback. They've got big receivers. Eagles tend to be a little bit of a smaller team, but they handled

Derrick Henry and the Titans wonderfully. The same thing is true. They gave up the scrambles for Ryan Tannehill, but still they held him to a 10-point lead. He cheated. He knocked Burks out of the game. That was a very big play for the Eagles 25-point win

over the Titans was losing Traylon Burks because he's been awesome this season, but we'll see. The Giants' lack of weapons continues to feel like something to exploit, but it has for the whole season. They're 7-5 or 4-1, whatever the freaking number is. You're way better than whatever the number is.

Yeah, you're way better than the Giants. And yet I'm not putting the Eagles in a tease because I do worry one of these weeks they're going to suck in a game when they're favored. And I just I don't I'm going to stay away. What's matchup number two for you? Matchup number two, Vikings Lions, which is just such an extremely fun game for so many reasons, not least among which is betting reasons. Sam Hoppen of Betsports tweeted out this week that since 1999,

we've only seen four games where a team with 10 plus wins is not favored against a team with five or fewer wins. And of those four games, all of them came in week 17, two of which had the backup quarterback playing for the 10-win team. So this is not something we see very often, where Vegas is really positive that a non-winning team is better than this winning team. The Vikings, there was a great graphic going around on

Twitter today where if you flipped the results of every one-score game this year, the Vikings would be 1-11 overall because they can't stop winning these one-score games. Well, the reason the Lions are favored is because the Vikings' pass defense is simply not trustworthy. Vikings defense past DVOA is 25th against wide receiver ones. They're 29th. We saw Garrett Wilson have a huge game against this defense just recently.

We had Stefan Diggs went 128 for 12. So Devontae Parker went four for 80. They struggle against the top receivers. Amon Ross St. Brown, the top receiver for the Lions, one of the most integral players in the league. Totally underappreciated how much this guy matters. In games in which Amon Ross St. Brown is healthy, the Lions average 0.2 EPA per dropback. That'd be the second best number season long if Amon Ross St. Brown had been healthy this whole time. This on top of getting DJ Chark back,

on top of Jamison Williams getting integrated back in the offense, has the Lions at a point where you can reliably expect them to score a lot of points. This to me reads very shoot-outy. And in the event that the Vikings will lose it, it's because they, just like the Jaguars did,

don't get a stop. The Jaguars didn't force a punt. It was touchdowns and field goals the whole way down. And it's difficult to see the Vikings having any more success than the Jaguars did because they do not have the corners

to match up with the Mont-Ros St. Brown the way the Lions saw the football. So I'm very tempted by Lions minus two. More appropriately, though, I like the over and I have the Lions over in this game, but it's going to come down to do they have the formula to stop the Mont-Ross St. Brown? And with the volume that he gets in this passing attack,

how much Jergoff trusts him? I doubt it. I think it's a huge Mont-Ross St. Brown game. I think it's a ton of points for the Lions. You'll be happy to know I love the Lions this week. I don't know if I'm happy about it. It's been a tough year. No, we're coming back. We've had

a couple good weeks. Yeah, we're coming back. I'd like to congratulate Amon Ross St. Brown, even though it's only week 14, for winning Football Nerd Hero MVP for the 2022 season. Is that right?

The football nerd community, this is their guy this year. Every year they adopt a guy, this is the guy this year. Because first of all, he is awesome. Second of all, he gets no acclaim, attention, whatever, whatsoever. Third, there are all these stats to back up how awesome he is. And fourth, he's like the underdog. I just think he's like perfect. I'm giving the MVP now. Is there anybody else who's even in the discussion?

Nerd MVP. I've never thought about this before. So football nerd MVP. So it's an underappreciated guy. So it's like a film nerd sort of a thing, right? It's like, it's like the guys that watch the film. I got to think about it. I like this award a lot. Like, I think David Long, the linebacker for the Titans, is probably one of them. That's a good one. See, this is why it's a great award. But they're all just like, David Long is the same as Amon Ross St. Brown. He's super undersized, but he just tries really hard and is always correct. And it's like, ah, me as a 5'7 man, that's the sort of NFL player I can empathize with.

I can relate to this guy. Just smaller than everybody doing his best. But Amon Ross absolutely. I think Austin Eckler won like two years ago. Yeah, Eckler's a great player. There was a whole Eckler run when he was like, nobody knew what was going on with him. And he's like a podcaster.

He does fantasy football. He's appealing to the masses. Yeah. You know, the thing with Amon Raw is really like, you know, all jokes aside about football nerds, I'm not sure like how, where he ranks on like the talent scale for wide receivers. Like he's he's

quick he's not particularly quick he's certainly strong for his size it's not like he's like t higgins strong i'm saying like it's it's it's not like cooper cup where people are like oh you know cup's not a great athlete you watch me you know he he is like cup is very very good athlete he's very very good technically amon raw is just always correct has a great feel for space never drops anything tries really hard knows where the first down marker is. He's so valuable. He's much more valuable than he is physically gifted. And that sounds derogatory, but it's really complimentary.

This guy's carved out an integral role to this offense, despite the fact that he's a fourth-round pick who doesn't have a great athletic profile. Unbelievably talented. Quality, valuable player. Also, devastating on third downs. It just feels like he's in that kind

of Devontae Adams kind of level where you just feel like he's getting open and he's going to be able to get the ball. It's third and nine and he'll catch it for ten. He's just always open and when you bet against the Lions, you're just terrified they're going to go to him and they always do. Leads the league in conversions on third and fourth down

targets. I'm not surprised. He's either first or second. I can't recall if he successfully passed Chris Olave or not after the most recent Bucs game, but he and Olave are the top two players. Chris Olave for the Saints is another one. A little quick, a little small, whatever, but holy smokes, he just played. First drop of the season

was Monday night against the Buccaneers. Incredibly young player. So you like Lions minus one and a half, maybe a slightly adjusted over, maybe get that down to like 49 and a half and do that combo, or you just take it at 51 and a half?

I don't mind 51 and a half. I have over, I think, 51 straight in pocket right now. I have the team total over for the Lions as well, up to plus money, because I think we're in shootout territory. The Lions-Jags was such a good setup for just huge overs, tons of money, and then the Jaguars just couldn't handle in the red zone, and Lawrence got hurt, and it burned me. So I don't want to be too far into the over bucket as I was in that game. But yeah, I

mean, this reads like a lot of points, reads like big on raw day. The Justin Jefferson aspect of this is very interesting. If you remember when they played earlier in the season, Jefferson coming off of a crazy Packers game, he's going to, you know, Cooper Cobb, he's going to have 2,500 yards. The Lions handled him very well because they played Jeff Akuda underneath him and they played a safety over the top of him. And since then, their secondary has gotten healthier and better. The absence of Tracy Walker is big, but there's a chance that if you tell me the Lions blow this game out

and really dominate, I'm betting you it's a very quiet day for Justin Jefferson. And we have to talk about Jeff Okuda again, because he's been playing lights out for the Lions this season. Would you do a little Lions minus one and a half over 50 and a half? St. Brown gets a TD at any point in the game for plus 352. What is it if it's Jamal Williams? Because Jamal Williams, anytime touchdown, is printing money this year. It's been my best bet of the season.

That's minus 140. That takes us to plus 319. See, I feel safer with Jamal just because you can set your clock to Jamal getting three red zone carries every single week. It's the most consistent thing you've seen. He's minus 140. They moved him to minus 130 last week. As of like two or three weeks ago, like the Bills,

he was still minus 110. It was the most hilariously mispriced line you could find. Every single week, it was just such a joy. It is funny. They go to him all the time. Yep. And the thing was is back in the day, it was because everybody thought the starter was Swift.

So he used to be like plus 110, plus 120. It was incredible times. Then Swift got hurt and then Swift came back and it was very clear Jamal was the starter. They're kind of more and more reintegrating Swift. Like Swift took up the majority of the reps for them last week. So I thought maybe they'd move the Jamal line

back a little bit. Nah, the Bucks have gotten wise. They know you got to keep it as long as you can. Smart. What do you got for for matchup number three? Niners-Bucks in what's like a hugely impactful game for the NFC playoffs, but also the ugliest

game of the week because of what the Bucks are offensively at this point. And then obviously Schrager and I, we hit this. I think the Bucks are awful and I think the Niners defense is going to win this game by themselves. Absolutely. Are you in or out? I'm on the under for this game. Under for this game is one of the first things I took.

The Bucs offensive coaching staff, Byron Lefkowitz, and then to what degree Todd Bowles is involved, fourth down decision, so on and so forth. They're not interested in scoring points. They have no interest in winning games. I don't know what they're doing on Sunday. It's just kind of like vibing and having a good time. But it's evident with the decisions they've made

that they have no interest in like scoring and like moving the ball down the field and creating offense. If they did, they'd throw the ball to different players. They'd phase more Rashad White in.

They'd run more play action. They'd pass more on first down, but they don't do any of this. And the evidence is overwhelming. So this obstinate of an offense that does things they're not good at against a defense

that's so good, matchup so good situationally, generates so much pressure against a banged up offensive line like the 49ers defense can do. I think it's an underspot for sure. The matchup to me, the number I say that's interesting, is what we get Brock Purdy versus Todd Bowles' defense. Todd Bowles, historically against rookie quarterbacks,

has been extremely good. Going back to his time since he was a defensive coordinator to a head coach, anytime he's been calling a defense, Bowles is 4-10 against rookie quarterbacks has been extremely good. Going back to his time since he was a defensive coordinator to a head coach. Anytime he's been calling a defense. Bowles is 4-10 against rookie quarterbacks. He is 2-10 if you get rid of the games he had to play against Washington and Robert Griffin III in that season in which Robert Griffin was a rookie. So since the 2012 season,

2-10 against rookies. He's lost to Daniel Jones in his first career start for the Giants. Remember that game? Jones was incredible. Giants fans had their future. Eli Manning for the Giants, remember that game? Jones was incredible. Giants fans had their future. Eli Manning, for the rest of the season, he was terrible. And then Kenny Pickett, to whom he lost this season. And the reason is because rookie quarterbacks, historically, kind of story-wise,

have always been really bad against the Blitz. But college quarterbacks coming out have been better and better, season in, season out against the Blitz. They have quicker responses. They get the ball to young playmakers. And offensive coordinators have learned how to help their season out against the Blitz. They have quicker responses. They get the ball to young playmakers and offensive coordinators have learned how to help their quarterbacks

against the Blitz. Everything that you hear about Brock Purdy out of San Francisco, it's just about how much guts this guy has, about how he looks in the face of danger, right?

Like Kyle Shanahan's like, he's got some balls out there, man. Everybody's talking about how much confidence this young rookie has. Well, against a Todd Bowles defense that's going to blitz you, you have to be willing to take a hit and get rid of the football. He did that against Miami.

And when Kyle Shanahan has played this defense previously, played him in 2019, he brutalized these linebackers. He took Devin White to the woodshed. Nobody's better in the league than taking a bad coverage linebacker and exposing him. And that's what you have in Devin White. He's still on the field, and Kyle knows how to manipulate that player. I think it's a good Brock game.

I think it gives the Niners hope that this is going to be a functional offense. And certainly if their defense plays well, complimentary football, maybe they can actually do something in the playoffs. So Brock Purdy against Todd Bowles, who's historically been good against rookie quarterbacks, but does it by blitzing them to death,

I think is going to be in a worse spot against Kyle Shanahan, against all these playmakers, Debo, Kittle, IU, Christian McCaffrey, and a quarterback like Brock who's willing to hang in there and take a shot. So I think the Niners be in a worse spot against Kyle Shanahan, against all these playmakers, Debo, Kittle, IU, Christian McCaffrey, and a quarterback like Brock is willing to hang in there and take a shot. So I think the Niners are in a good spot. I asked Schrager this. I'm going to ask you, how many points per game are the Bucs averaging

in the first half? In the first half. What would your guess be? I would say probably 7.5. Yeah, 8. 7.5. Yeah, 8.1. So there's a bet on FanDuel. You can bet the Niners to win the first half and the Niners to win the game.

Plus 115. There's another bet on FanDuel. San Francisco, 14 plus. Plus 280. I prefer double result. And the reason I prefer double result is because obviously what we saw from the

Bucs against the Saints, where once the push came to shove, they kind of opened up the offense a little bit, let Tom Brady does what he does well. The no huddle, worked a quick game. And then critically, like, you know, 10 into betting the last five years. Kyle Shanahan was a lead. Not a trustworthy man. Kyle

Shanahan, in the beginning of the third quarter with a 10-point lead, will go into his 4-minute offense. It's too soon! Not now! So they could be carrying, right? If Brock gives them that 10-point, 14-point lead, they could turtle and become a running team so quickly that you're just begging for a hold. And you can hedge against it.

Yeah. So the double result, I think I prefer. Me too. Matchup number four is. Jets pass rush against Josh Allen and the bills offense. We have a hugely important game for the bills. A bills that a team that is now for the second season in a row, it appears becoming a little less trustworthy down the stretch,

right? Last year, come out of the gate, super strong and then started to have these face point games. This time, the, the UCL injury to Josh Allen, which came in this first Jets game, if you recall, has led to some weird performances, right? They lost to the Jets, only beat the Browns by one score.

They were close against the Lions. They've had their gaps. They've had their stumbles. The offensive line for the Bills was about as healthy as you'd expect it to be midseason the last time they played the Jets. They had Deion Dawkins left tackle. They had Mitch Morse on the offensive line. As we saw last week when they played the Patriots, the offensive line injuries were really starting to hurt this team, right? No Deion Dawkins, no Mitch Morse. Scott Questenberry got injured during the game. The good news for the Bills is that they have guys practicing.

We've seen Mitch Morse have a limited practice on Wednesday. We saw Deion Dawkins have a limited practice on Wednesday, but they're still feeling out with those players. Dawkins himself said, I'm practicing, but it's a pain tolerance thing. Management, I don't know if I can go. I don't know if I can. And they have Miami next week. Yeah, when the Jets beat the Bills

the first time around, man, this pass rush, which I think everybody knows the Jets defense is good. Everybody's talking about Sauce Garner, Defensive Rookie of the Year. The depth that they have, man, this pass rush, which I think everybody knows that Jets defense is good. Everybody's talking about Sauce Garner, defensive rookie of the year. The depth that they have, man, in terms of being able to get Bryce Huff, who's a football film nerd, you know, final ballot Bryce Huff,

just unbelievable efficiency numbers. He rushes the quarterback like 10 times a game, but just like crazy stats. John Franklin Myers, Solomon Thomas, right? The X top five pick who's just followed Robert Sala around and found a home with him. They're too deep. They can get guys out who are fresh against a banged-up, injured offensive line

and really start to win in the second half. You saw that in the game against Buffalo. Buffalo scored a lot early, and then the pass rush got warm and really took the win out of Buffalo's sails. Even with Mike White. And then, you know, not the best game against the Vikings. Hey, come on. Lotus made some throws.

Yeah, Lotus. Is it White Lotus? Is that what it is? No, we call him Lotus now. We don't even call him White Lotus. We just call him Lotus. I call him White Mike. I'm always like the...

White Mike's great. I call him Lotus. A lot of nicknames. Yeah. They got to... The scoreboard doesn't look that great, but they got to the red zone a ton, and they pass it a lot more with White Mike.

The neutral pass rate over expected, much bigger than Zach Wilson, where they got to the red zone a ton and they pass it a lot more with white Mike. The neutral pass rate over expected much bigger than Zach Wilson, where they ran the ball a lot. Get Garrett Wilson involved underneath. Get Braxton Barry's involved underneath. Let your playmakers make plays for you. I would not be surprised if the Jets win this game. I would not be surprised if the Jets sweep Buffalo and we have to start having a conversation about how legitimate is Buffalo

entering these cold months entering the playoffs. Music to my ears, brother. I love the Jets plus nine and a half. I think that line... I was going to say five points too high. At the very least, it's three points too high. They should not be nine and a half point underdogs. And I just don't think people watched the game last week.

White had a couple of shaky moments. He has had a lot of good throws and they kept fighting, which I liked. And I'd like that. I liked the way the coach coached that game solid. Like that was a game where, you know what, I'm going to take some field goals because we're going to have the ball for most of this half. I'm not going to get too crazy. And he just kept banking points. And then they were right there and they should have won. They really should have. I just didn't like some of their play calls, but I thought they controlled the last two hours of that game. And I just think with the skill guys they have, they'll get to at least 20 plus points. So now that has to put the Bills in the 30s. And I'm with you. The Bills in these second halves have looked a little shaky. I don't know if Josh Allen's healthy.

Also, the way to beat the Jets is to run on them, and I like Devin Singletary, but he's not that guy. So, it feels like a hang-around game. The issue with the Bills' offense going back to the second half of last year was that teams realized, like, oh, they really don't have a diverse running game. They can't run

the ball that well. They can't add extra blockers. They don't have tight ends and fullbacks. All right, like this is how we're going to stop them. And then the Bills came out this year. They've given Reggie Gilliam more snaps, right? They've used Josh Allen more in the design running game. They kind of have had a solution. But if you look at their rushing efficacy

and you kind of, you know, block out the Cleveland game with one hand because the Cleveland game doesn't count because everybody can run the ball against Cleveland. Cleveland's not a real NFL defense. The rushing efficacy is still a big question mark. You know, they make the trade for Naeem Hines,

and they kind of can't get Naeem Hines working. James Cook, obviously, I think had a little bit of a, hopefully, like a breakthrough game they're hoping against the Patriots, but that's not something you can say in Washington.

Not really. I don't know how real that is. I'm not buying that one. Yeah. So you have to, I very much agree, you have to be able to run the football against this Jets defense

because you have to slow down the pass rush. Bills to be able to run the football against this Jets defense because you have to slow down the pass rush. Bills are not equipped to do that. Jets adjusted line plus four and a half with the Panthers to win. Parlay plus 640. Panthers to win. Panthers to win.

I'm on Seahawks this week. I can't with these Panthers. It's December. Okay. Jets plus four and a half. I don't mind. I'm on Jets plus nine and a halfthers. It's December. Okay. Jets plus four and a half. I don't mind. I'm on Jets plus nine and a half myself. It makes sense.

What's the Panthers thought here? Seattle's defense is awful. It is. It's been pretty rough. Everybody cooks on them. They're terrible. Take you over. Huh?

I like Carolina this week. You're not talking me out. All right. You're not talking me out about it. What do you got for fifth matchup? Yeah, fifth and final matchup, the Dolphins against the Chargers, your Sunday night football game.

Oh, because I was looking at Chargers for underdog parlay too, but I hope you're going to talk me out of it because I don't want to bet on Brandon Staley. Yeah, I'm absolutely going to bet you out of it. Try to talk you out of it, I should say. No question in my mind. This Dolphins offense, right?

I think we talked about it a little bit there in the my mind uh this dolphins offense right i think we talked about a little bit there in the top coming off of a a bad performance kind of what does it mean what does it not mean well if you want to like follow the niners blueprint which i would firstly argue you can't do it's too uh you know specific to the players they have the charges are the least equipped team to do it like oh you want to have a deep pass rush with a talented defensive line well they have stars and total scrubs in the defensive line, right? They can't 2-D-D. They can't rush you from everywhere. It's just Khalil Mack

in the matchup that he's potentially able to get. You want to press corners of a line of scrimmage? Well, they maybe had one of those guys in J.C. Jackson. He's out for the rest of the season. Asante Samuels, 5'10", a buck 85. You can't put him up a line of scrimmage and press. Oh, you want your linebacker to take away the middle of the field? Have you watched Drew Tranquil play? Have you watched Kenneth Murray play? They

can't. They're some of the worst coverage backers in the league. So blueprint wise, they're not going to be able to slow down Miami in that regard. Staley's going to be able to do some creative stuff. He typically does week in and week out defensively to solve problems. But the reality is that this is one of the worst early down defenses. They give up a ton of the running game and a ton of the passing game in the league. Early downs defines this game. On first down this season, Tua Tungabailoa,

second in the league in air yards per attempt, 9.67. He's throwing 10 plus yards down the field on first down, second only to Marcus Mariota, who like, as we know, doesn't actually throw the football

and is now getting benched. Justin Herbert, last in the league, five air yards per attempt. On first down, Justin Herbert's throws go half as far down the field as five yards per attempt on first down. Justin Herbert's throws go half as far down the field as to a tongue of my Lois. And that's the difference. This is modernity versus tradition.

This is the future versus the past. This is an offensive coaching staff in, in Joe Lombardi who came up in the NFL nucleus, who came up with, with the, the, the hegemony, right?

With the, the decided thought of what an NFL offense should operate like. So he runs West Coast, traditional stuff, gets to the correct read, distribute the ball, one to two to three. And then you have Yale Mike McDaniel gamer over here who's like, I'm going to throw it to only two players all the time on early downs,

after play action, after motion, moving around in the backfield, turning around this way, run to grass, air raid, we're going to steal this. Just you have creativity against total calcification. And so while the Chargers on paper could hang with a team like the Dolphins, their offensive coaching staff has decided preemptively

that they're going to neuter their star quarterback and not let him do so. I think the Dolphins run away with this. I have Dolphins team total overs. I think this is a big win for the Dolphins because the Dolphin Party is going to get lapped. He's going to get lapped by a machine that is using parts, that's using technology that he's never seen

before. That's why the Chargers, you know, offseason, needed to consider moving on and updating their offense. It sounded like you were talking about Matt Patricia. It's floppy disk stuff. These were the prevailing ideas back in the 90s. This is what I watched, you

know, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady adjust the call at the lines. That's what I want to do now. You don't need to do this anymore. We got better things in the world, man. Race to 30. You could do Miami minus 196. Total touchdowns, Dolphins over three. What was that?

What's the scoring? What is it? What's their line for actual points? Team total, I want to say it's like 28 and a half. Yeah. Oh, I got it. 27 and a half for the Dolphins. Yeah.

And Dolphins team total has hit you, has killed you twice in the past couple weeks. I know because I've been on it in two totally different ways. It was 30 and a half against the Texans. They scored 30 in the first half and then did not score the rest of the game. Right. Turtles, I remember. And then it was 20 against the 49ers.

And they scored 7 in the first minute, the first 30 seconds, and then they couldn't push the football down the field for the rest of the game. The reality is that this team is so high-flying, they're so explosive, that they have the ability to pour points at any time at any down distance from anywhere. This is as high octane of an offense as you can find. So the ability for like weird covers and for backdoor stuff and for alternate lines,

like it's all a little bit haywire because of that. What I think you can set your clock to is just the team putting points on the board and defensively, we don't know what they're going to be. Games, we don't know what they're going to be, but generally they're going to be worth, I think like that three touchdown line makes sense. I think that that 27 and a half line makes sense. So you're thinking the over under for that game is 51 and a half. If there's any chance for the Chargers to win that game, it would be because they outscored Miami in a high scoring game. So that would be plus 150 plus the over.

And that's their only chance. They have to score like 40 points. And if you're going to be there, like, you know, obviously taking it for now is kind of reading into the Mike Williams, Keenan Allen health situation. If you're going to be on that, like I'm going to get there by Sunday night, it's going to be knowing that those receivers are playing.

Because the fact that they can't change this offense when they have Michael Bandy and DeAndre Carter and Josh Palmer as the primary weapons, like it's inexcusable. It makes me a little nervous with the offensive line with Miami. There's a kitchen sink aspect with that Chargers game where it's like if they lose that

on a Sunday night, their season's probably over. There's just too many teams in the AFC who can get to 10-7. I wish they found the kitchen sink against the four-win Raiders. Well, the Raiders aren't bad, though. The Raiders could move the ball. And I think it'll be a lot.

I'm with you. I think they're just not going to be able to stop Miami. I don't see it. They couldn't handle one star receiver in Devontae Adams, and now they get two star receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jay LeBron, who's limited practice but expected to play. I don't have the horses.

But could they outscore them, though? Because I was looking at last year, the Chargers. They had a similar run, right? Last year, they scored 47. They scored 41. They scored 41, 37, 29, 34, 32. What happened to that team? I mean, Mike Williams has been out.

But other than that, they have all the same guys. Well, so Mike Williams has been out. Keenan Allen's been out for most of the year. The Keenan you're watching on the field right now is 75%. The Hamstring's not good. And then Jalen Guyton is out. Guyton was their big play downfield speed receiver. Herbert has played this season without his starting three receivers. 1-2-3 for 80% plus of the snaps. Yeah.

Nobody like, like when DeAndre Hopkins was suspended, we were like, well, yeah, Kyler Murray, obviously, none of this is gonna make sense. He's losing his top receiver, right? Like when Waddle went down against the Niners, like, oh, well, it's gonna be so tough.

His second receiver's gone. Herbert's been out one, two, three. That's everybody, man. Like Nate ties to the athletic. I said this this week, which was so good. DeAndre Carter has played 600 snaps for the Chargers this year. Previously, on four different teams, he played a total of 700 snaps.

Half of his career usage has come in this one season for the Chargers. That's how bad receivers have been for them this year. So that's where that team went. And that's why, if you're trusting the Chargers offense, to me, I need at least Mike Williams back on the field. I think the Pats are going to lose to Arizona before we go. What are your thoughts? Yeah.

This offense for the Pats is very difficult to predict. And I will say that when they've been successful in these four points, the Bats have had very good games. And you can pick on these Arizona linebackers and coverage like none other, man. Zayvon Collins, Nick Vigil, Tanner Vallejo, Isaiah Simmons, you can pick on them all. So like big Ramondre game. That's what I'm expecting,

but I don't know if that's enough. And Arizona, again, they're both very mercurial teams. That's a tough one to get. It's a stay away. Don't bet on that game, America.

So next week, can you come back? I want you to announce your finalist for football nerd MVP, 2022. And the qualification is? Your five person ballot. Just the guys that you're texting like Nate Tice or Danny Kelly

you're just like oh my god did you see that D tackle on the Jaguars? I unfortunately know exactly what you're talking about. You know exactly what I'm talking about. All Sunday. Ben Solak good to see you. Appreciate you Bill. I unfortunately know exactly what you're talking about. You know exactly what I'm talking about. All Sunday, yep. Yeah, all right.

Ben Solak, good to see you. Appreciate you, Bill. Million dollar picks week 14. I won one and a half million dollars last week. That was the good news. The bad news is I am still down 3.094 million. Going to be positive before the playoffs start. I promise you.

I'm working day and night and I'm going back to the basics yet again. Straight up bets galore. Steelers, minus two and a half against the Ravens. I like the Steelers team. They were good to us last week. It's a kitchen sink game for them. They're five and seven if they lose, they're out. Ten and seven might make the playoffs.

I actually think they might be as good as the Ravens too. Mike Tomlin, these games are always close. I love that we're getting a little extra half point there. Steelers, minus two and a half, $1 million on that. Same four. The Panthers are plus four against the Seahawks. Look, Seattle's defense is terrible. We've seen it week after week. John Wolford almost beat them last week. I don't mind this Panthers team. Four and eight, two plays away from six and six. Their quarterback for the first month was Baker Mayfield,

who was so unwanted by everyone in the league that the Rams begrudgingly claimed him. Panthers should be six and six. I just think this Seattle defense is terrible. And if Sam Darnold was ever looking for the game for his free agency tape, this is the game. Seattle has no pass rush. They can't stop the run. Dante Foreman's going to have a big game. Carolina plus four, $1 million. And we're coming back to them for underdog parlay too. Next one, Lions minus one and a half against

the Vikings. Now there's some, nobody believes in us factor with Minnesota that scares me a little bit. They're also, by Football Outsiders DVOA, the worst 10-2 team of all time. And at some point, you have to ask yourself, are the Vikings going 15-2? Are they going to lose one of these games? Meanwhile, Detroit has won four of their last five, could have won on Thanksgiving.

They can move the ball. Healthy receivers again. Williams is finally going to be playing for them. Defense has been okay. They're good the ball. Healthy receivers again. Williams is finally going to be playing for them. Defense has been okay. They're good in the red zone. They're home. This is a huge game for them. It's not quite a kitchen sink game, but it's close. You don't want to go five and eight. Hard to make the playoffs at five and eight. I think the line should be three. I know Minnesota's 10 and two. I don't really care. Detroit's favored by one and a half. Sounds awesome. We're betting a million

dollars on it. That's our third bet. Fourth one, Jets plus nine and a half in Buffalo. This is the weirdest line of the weekend for me. I think the Jets are good. I've watched them. I watched them play the Patriots twice. I watched them last week almost beat Minnesota. Felt like they could have stolen that game. They could move the ball. Really good defense. The one thing you can do is run on them, but the Bills, other than Allen, wouldn't say they have an awesome rushing attack. I'm in on Lotus. Mike White, I don't even call him White Lotus anymore. I just call him Lotus. That's my guy. I think the Jets can keep this close. I think they can possibly win. And I think talent-wise, they're not that far away from the Bills.

They're getting nine and a half points. That's crazy to me. This line should be Jets by getting four and a half, five, something like that. So I'm grabbing the nine and a half. $1 million on the Jets plus nine and a half. And then the last one, a little funky here. I love the 49ers against the Bucks.

I'm all in on Brock Purdy. We did a whole thing with the Schrager segment about how these really, really great defensive teams with some weapons can sneak by with the right quarterback. I think they like Purdy. I think he's fine. Just give us a C-plus Purdy. The Bucs are awful.

The Bucs should have lost to the Saints. The Bucs have pulled two games out of their butts. I think they stink. I think they're terribly coached. They're an awful first half team. They've averaged 8.1 points in the first half this year. It takes them three and a half quarters to get going every game. We're going to leverage that against them. There's a bet on FanDuel. 49ers win the first half, 49ers win the game, plus 115, And we're putting a million dollars on it. Just take care of business. Go up early, run the ball, put them away.

I know I just took Brock Purdy over Tom Brady. I'm very aware, but he is 45 years old. And then two small bets. Doing a little Dolphins first half against the Chargers night game. Dolphins 13 and a half, going over. I think they have a big first half. So accoladed all out.

The Chargers defense, this is a worse nightmare for them. So if the Dolphins can't score 14 points against them, I don't know what to tell you. We are putting 100K on that. And then last but not least, the underdog parlay. 50K, Jets plus four and a half adjusted with the Panthers to beat Seattle is plus 640. And it sounds wonderful. It is the Sam Darnold's all full circle underdog parlay. I love it. It's ugly. It's also an ugly tree parlay. It's just a lot of things going on

there. Sam Darnold, this will be your vindication with the Jets when you win this parlay for us. Jets plus four and a half. Panthers to win plus 640. Those are the million dollar picks for week 14. Notice I didn't touch the Pats game because they're probably going to lose. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Michael and Peter and Benjamin, the King of Cheese. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing. Don't forget, if you want to hear me vent about Boston sports for an hour, you can go listen to Off the Pike with Brian Barrett and the Prestige TV podcast, either late Sunday night or Monday morning.

We will be recapping the last episode, season two of White Lotus. Last but not least, Holy Cross, go get them, man. I don't care that you're 50 and a half point underdogs in South Dakota State. You go take that game back. Bring it back. Avengers! I want to see them on the way so I never say I don't have feelings with them.

On the wayside, on the way so I never say I don't have feelings with them.