The Bill Simmons Podcast - Westbrook Trades, NFL Playoff Futures and RIP Alex Trebek With Kevin Clark and Claire McNear 

Episode Date: November 13, 2020

The Ringer's Bill Simmons shares his NBA predictions (3:00). Then he is joined by Kevin Clark to discuss the NFC and NFL playoff odds before giving out his Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 10 (26:00). Finally Bill talks with Claire McNear about the recent death of legendary 'Jeopardy!' host Alex Trebek, her new book, 'Answers in the Form of Questions: A Definitive History and Insider's Guide to Jeopardy!,' researching for the book, and more (1:32:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, NBA predictions, NFC champion predictions, and Jeopardy. I should have done a, what is the Bill Simmons podcast? Anyway, it's all next. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable

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One is Gamblers. It's a narrative series with Dave Hill. Very, very excited about it. If you like gambling, I promise you're going to like this one. And then the other one, Recipe Club. Dave Chang and his Major Domo gang. I can't even describe this one, but if you like food, you're going to like this one as well.

So if you like food and gambling, you're going to be very happy next week. Also, Book of Basketball returned, if you missed it. J.A. Adande and I, we did Allen Iverson as the first episode of season three. Got some good feedback for that already. Glad people enjoyed it. We're going to be doing, I think, 12 episodes, maybe more. I don't know. We're doing all players this year. Have another one coming. We're going to be dropping those on Wednesday nights and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts and you can hear them when they go up. Coming up, I'm going to do some NBA stuff

at the very top. Just a couple of predictions for I think what's going to be a crazy next eight days. And then Kevin Clark comes on to talk about who's going to be the NFC champion and who should we bet on in week 10 for million-dollar picks.

And then finally, Claire McNair is going to talk about her new Jeopardy book that she wrote for the Ringer Books imprint. That's all coming up first. Our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, I'm taping this first part of the podcast. It is 8 p.m. Pacific time. So wait as long as possible because the NBA is getting super weird. I wouldn't say the NBA is drunk right now, but it's definitely had a couple of drinks and it's definitely gone outside and had cigarettes with a waitress and then come back in

and ordered shots. But it's not hammered yet, but it's definitely been over-served. Weird shit's going on. Lots of teams kicking the tires on stuff, either as buyers or sellers. Nobody knows what's going to happen in this draft. We are a week away. No idea who the first pick's going to be. Some people say it's going to be LaMelo Ball. Other people say he's going to drop

at least to Chicago at number four. Everyone has James Wiseman going to Golden State at number two without having any idea what Golden State actually wants to do. This is a bizarre draft. Guys going all over the map. And on top of it, everybody waiting for the trade moratorium to be lifted. I think this is going to be a hold on to your seats thrill ride for the next few weeks. And I want to talk about a couple of the other storylines in a second,

but Russell Westbrook basically leaking that he wants out and that he's unhappy and he wants to go back to being Russell Westbrook. That came out yesterday in The Athletic. I don't think people were shocked to hear that Russ maybe didn't want to be a sidekick for James Harden and then not get guarded in the playoffs and be blamed for any playoff losses again. He is Russell Westbrook. He wants his own team.

Here's the thing. I kind of want him to have his own team too. I don't think that team will succeed. I don't think that team will get out of round one. That team might not even make the playoffs, but it's more fun when Chef Russell Westbrook is in the kitchen and he's

cooking crazy stuff. And a lot of it's unedible and you can't believe that he made 39 meatballs when you only needed 15 and all the things that chef Russell Westbrook does. Here's the problem. He makes an incredible amount of money. He makes, let me see, what's the exact number? He has 132.6 million due over the next three years. And this is in a league where the players are being asked to take and basically to agree to an 18% escrow tax. So the money will be a little bit less than that, at least for this year, 18% less. But what do you do if you're Russell Westbrook's agent and he's like, yeah, you got to get me out of Houston.

Just find me another team. And you're like, dude, this is going to be hard. No offense. I know you made the All-NBA last year, and I know you're still really good, and I know you're feeling good about things just in general. You're the MVP three years ago. Um, you know, two things on this one, Doug Collins, when I did TV with them, he always, he would, we would talk about how hard it was to coach Michael Jordan those last two years on the wizards. And he would just say,

you don't understand what it's like to coach a superstar who's not a superstar anymore because in their head they still think they're the same person that they were at their peak when they won the mvp when they won the finals all that stuff and they're not that guy anymore and a lot of superstars don't realize that so that's one thing another thing is a theory that my mom has always had about, and she had, I won't say who the person was, but somebody she was friends with who used to be gorgeous and then got older and wasn't gorgeous anymore. And my mom's theory is when you're in your 20s

or whatever you are, and if you're super funny or you're really attractive or whatever, in your head, you're always that person, even if things change over the next 40 years. And you could be 65 and not look anything like that person you were when you were 25, but you're still acting like you're the 25-year-old. Russell Westbrook isn't there yet as a basketball player,

but reading comments about how he wants to go back to being Russell Westbrook again, it's pretty funny because that version of Russell Westbrook is just not going to contend for titles and do anything that is going to truly matter as a basketball player. It's almost like he just wants the steering wheel again. So, all right, if you want the steering wheel again, Russell Westbrook, we have some ideas for you. We have some alternatives. Unfortunately, they're all pretty lousy. So for instance, we could send you to Charlotte and maybe they'll give you a Terry Rozier back and Cody Zeller's expiring. And maybe they'll even throw a Malik Monk,

but then you're in Charlotte and you're basically trying to go 42 and 40. And now if you're Charlotte, it's like, would you rather play Rozier, I don't know, 38 million for the next two years? Or would you rather play Russell Westbrook, 132 million for the next three years? Odds are if you're Charlotte, it's like, well, if we get Westbrook, are we winning the finals? Probably not. Could he break down? Maybe. Is this super risky? Yeah. And they end up saying those thanks.

Orlando's another one that people thought, oh, Orlando, they love trading for guys after they've hit their peak. Well, they could throw Aaron Gordon and Terrence Ross and one other contract, maybe make Gordon the centerpiece and do it that way. But then if you're Orlando, what are you getting out of that? So now we're going to go 43 and 39 instead of 37 and 45. I don't know. Washington, they could flip John Wall for him.

They make the exact same amount of money. They could throw in the number nine pick. You take John Wall. We'll throw in the number nine pick. We'll take Westbrook back. Again, what do you get out of it? And then the last one would be Detroit. Now, Detroit, I can talk myself into this one

because Detroit, by all accounts, is in really rough shape with season ticket renewals, with just the money they're making in general, the fact that they're not going to be able to participate in revenue sharing, they probably have the least appealing roster in the league in terms of assets. I think that's why a lot of people thought the Celtics could potentially trade 14, 26, and 30 for seven just because Detroit needs younger players.

They might let Christian Wood go in free agency, it looks like. Blake Griffin is their most expensive player by far. Nobody knows if he's healthy. He's got two years left at like 36 million. So if you're Detroit, you have no identity. You have no reason at all for anyone in Detroit to care about that team or come to games when we can have fans again. And you can kind of talk yourself into the Westbrook thing.

And it's like, man, if we get Westbrook back and Blake turns into the guy from two years ago before he hurt his knee and he could be 90% of that guy. Now we kind of have something. We have an identity. We have two famous guys on our team. Put them on a poster. Maybe we'll sell some more tickets when fans start coming to games again. The upside of that, we'd have two top 30 guys potentially if they're both healthy. So the thought I had was maybe the trade that makes the most sense is they just send Derrick Rose to Houston. He makes like seven and a half million a year. Take Westbrook back for 37 million. They wouldn't be able to do this till after the draft when all the contracts reset, but they're going to have a ton of cap space. And you just have

Westbrook and Blake and you're ready to go. So I think that could make sense. The other one I was thinking, and by the way, Westbrook on Detroit, I weirdly like it. They have that kind of rough and tumble identity. He's a blue collar guy, the way he plays, balls to the wall all the time. I don't know, kind of, I'm not against that. The fun thing about that for him in Detroit

would just be, God only knows what kind of stats he'd put up every night. It would just be fun to have him back in the league. I was like, oh my God, Westbrook was 35, 11, and 12 last night, and he took 40 shots. Great. Way more fun than whatever Detroit had going. There's one trade though that I actually think makes sense for everybody. I made this up. I have no inside info. Here's the trade. Philly gets Mike Conley, who only has one year left in his contract, by the way. Houston gets Al Horford, who has like two years plus, like you can kind of get out of that fourth year. And then Westbrook goes to Utah. All right, so why would Utah do this?

That's weird. Well, if you're Utah, you're pretty close, right? You're not a true championship contender, but you're a good playoff team. You're like the eighth, ninth, tenth best team in the league. Conley wasn't that great last year. In fact, he missed a shot in game seven that they could have beat in Denver. You know, Conley's leaving anyway after a year. At least he's not

going to be making the same money after next year that he's making now. You could argue, you bring Westbrook in, put him with Donovan Mitchell, and now you have this super athletic physical backcourt that would be really hard to match up with. You know, Westbrook, he wouldn't get his dream of driving the car all the time, but he could alternate with Mitchell and, you know, they could just be attacking the rim. And now you're thinking crunch time where you have Westbrook with Mitchell, with Joe Ingles, with Bogdanovich and Gobert.

It's kind of interesting. So that's the only team that actually has final eight or final four potential that I could see ever in a million years talking themselves into Westbrook. Now, the thought of Westbrook in Utah would be hilarious, but that was my best idea if he was actually trying to compete. Now, here's another piece of the story.

Hold on to your seats. What if Westbrook wanted out because he knew Harden was about to get traded? Hmm. Okay. Well, where's Harden? If he was going to get traded, where would that be? Okay. I think three options here.

So one, just to the Clippers for Paul George. Just bring Paul George to the Rockets, send Harden to the Clips. And there's been a lot of rumors about Kawhi wasn't happy with Doc Rivers, wasn't happy with Paul George, wasn't happy with anybody. Now it's like, all right, now we have Kawhi and James Harden. Mildly intriguing. I don't think that one's very realistic. Second one, Philly, where Daryl Morey is, it would just be the Ben Simmons trade, right?

Ben Simmons for James Harden. Just switch those dudes. Well, what if I told you the Houston owner maybe wasn't ecstatic about how the Dryl thing played out with Philly? I don't know that for a fact. I have heard rumors. My guess is he's not going to reward Darryl with James Harden, one of the best four players of the last 10 years. So I'm going to cross that off.

The other one I was thinking, what if it was Brooklyn? You're like, Brooklyn? Durant, Kyrie, and Harden? What? Well, Durant and Harden, still buds. All those guys know each other. They have Karis LeVert,

who's making a really, really sustainable $17 million, I think, starting that kicks in this year. The Us of the Torian Prince deal, I think he makes $12. And Dinwiddie, who they don't really need because of Kyrie. Everybody knows they're shopping Dinwiddie every year. So you could do Dinwiddie, Levert, Prince. You'd have to wait until the next year's contracts kick in. Maybe throw them, I don't know,

Unprotected first, something like that. You get Harden back. And then if you're Brooklyn, you're just like, this is weird. We have three guys who need the ball, who are amazing scorers. But imagine trying to match up against us. Harden, Durant, Kyrie, good luck. We're going to spread the floor with different guys on different sides. And you're screwed everywhere you look. Plus, you have Nash as the coach. So my thought is, let's say randomly this happens. Or Harden gets traded to one of those three teams. Let's say he goes to Brooklyn.

But let's say Westbrook has an inkling that that might be happening and that's why he wants out. But if you're Houston, you're thinking we trade Harden, we get a bunch of pieces back and then we actually build around Westbrook. So weirdly, the Westbrook trade that people think might happen isn't going to happen because the trade will be to the non-James Harden rockets. They'll just keep them and give them the car keys and he'll get to have the steering wheel. So I don't know, who knows what's going to happen. My guess is that Houston will blow things up way, way, way faster than people think. Because once this stuff gets out, it always comes out. For instance, the Chris Paul stuff. Chris Paul stuff gets out because he knows Phoenix and OKC are talking trades.

He knows Presti is probably going to hold up Phoenix for a really good deal. He wants to get it out there, try to get some momentum one way or another. If you think about it, the last five years, how many big trades happened where we had no idea the trade was going to happen until it actually happened? It's usually most of the time. It's usually like 90%. When the stuff gets leaked, that teams are talking and oh, who knows. And that's usually, there's always somebody has an angle on that.

Either it's getting leaked by the player, the agent, or it's getting leaked by the team because they are trying to send a message. So my thought is, I actually think Chris Paul stays in OKC because I don't think there's a better option for him. And if I'm Phoenix, why am I trading Rubio, Oubre, and the 10th pick for Chris Paul? I'm only doing it if it's Rubio and Oubre for Chris Paul. And if I'm OKC, I'm like, well, why am I trading Chris Paul then? I'll just wait until February

and they'll have more value and somebody will be desperate. Who knows? If there's not a market now, I'm not going to trade him now. So I think Chris Paul ends up staying in OKC, would be my guess. Unless Phoenix throws in that 10th pick.

And if they did that, that's just dumb. I wouldn't do that. Chris Paul is going to be 37 next year. At some point, you move into a different phase of your career. I know he went to a plant-based diet, but come on. And if you're Chris, you feel an urgency, you want to get traded to a contender, but none of those contenders can fit your salaries in.

You're basically looking at the same Westbrook deal I laid out, but with OKC taking back the Horford contract, which they're not going to do. Presti's not taking any dumb contracts back. He's just not. At least with Rubio and with Oubre, you know you can spin Oubre if you want for a low pick or whatever. You can probably trade Rubio too.

So my guess is he stays for now. And if he ends up getting traded during the season, I'm sure there will be a suitor at some point. Somebody will get hurt. Somebody will panic. Somebody will be unhappy with their team, whatever. Other stuff I'm hearing. Well, everyone knows the Celtics are super aggressive right now.

They've offered their first three picks, 14, 26, and 30 to everybody in the top eight, probably except for Minnesota because why would Minnesota do that? But they are throwing their picks around. They do not want to bring back more rookies. From what I understand, pretty much they'll discuss anything. Anything is fair game. And KOC reported today about how they're looking at Drew Holiday. And it's really hard for them to acquire Drew Holiday without giving him a Kimball Walker.

So when I heard the Drew Holiday thing, you just start doing the math and you're like, well, it could be Marcus Smart and Robert Williams and all this stuff. And it's like, well, why would they get Drew Holiday? So they, he makes twice as much as Marcus Smart. I'd rather just keep Marcus Smart at half the price. But if it's Kemba, you know, that gets a little more interesting because he's right around the same money as Holiday. And if it is accurate that they are making a big run and trying to get picks and trying to make a move for Holiday, they still have to be able to fit them into their salary cap.

They have Brown's contract. They have Kemba. They have Tatum's extension coming, and it would just be really hard unless Kemba or Smart is involved in that trade. My feeling is that everyone on Boston is available except for Brown and Tatum. Not saying they're shopping them, but I think this team knows that they missed their window. They had a chance to make the finals. Danny, let's be honest, they did not have good drafts the last couple of years. And they were kind of one guy short.

They had Hero in Boston, apparently had an amazing workout. And they were just hoping he fell to their pick and he didn't. He went one pick before and they could have used some of this capital to move up and make sure they got him. They didn't. Over and over again, with these future picks they've had, they put this huge premium on them. They kept that Sacramento pick that year when they could have flipped it. The same thing for the Memphis pick. They kept holding on to these things,

thinking they were holding on to these diamonds because of how it worked out with Brooklyn. They've had a lot of swings at it here. And unless it's a top 10 pick, it just has not worked out in the last decade for the guys they've gotten back. So I think I can't wait to see what they do. I hope they don't get too crazy, but I think they're doing something. The most logical pick, or I'm sorry, the most logical trade would be

if they just use 14, 26, 30, and whatever else they needed to move into seven with Detroit when Detroit just needs assets. The Clippers, super aggressive right now. They, you know, the Harrell thing, they know they can't bring Harrell back because he can't guard Davis or Jokic, the two guys they're trying to beat. So there's sign and trade stuff with them. I don't know the sign and trade rules because the old sign and trade rules,

you couldn't package other players with the sign and trade guy. I don't know if they're going to change that just for this year because they're short in season. But Harrell's somebody who either is going to leave or they have a chance to sign and trade him. And then Lou Williams and Pat Beverly are available for anybody.

So one trade I was thinking I made this up was Lou Williams and Pat Beverly to available for anybody. So one trade I was thinking I made this up was Lou Williams and Pat Beverly to Milwaukee for Eric Bledsoe. Because Bledsoe, more of a traditional point guard, maybe needs to change his scenery. And then if you're Milwaukee, you have Williams scoring off the bench. You kind of get away from Bledsoe, who really let you down in the last two years. And then Beverly with some defense. More importantly, two smaller contracts that are much easier to move if you have to

for whatever reason. I am prepared for anything with the Clippers, including a Paul George trade. Nothing they could do would surprise me after how the Doc thing played out. I think there is an incredible amount of urgency with that team. And they're flying hot, flying hot right now.

One last thing. So I'm looking at Chicago, and they have a chance to get Lamello at four, right? Lamello is being rumored to go everywhere from one to four and could even drop out of the top four. Who knows? Everybody seems to agree that his passing is the single

biggest skill in this draft, but there's a lot of concerns behind the scenes about some of the interviews he's had, the people he has around him, all the stuff you would expect from LaMelo Ball. Well, if Chicago traded Kobe White for Lonzo Ball and then drafted Lomelo Ball and had both balls. I'm going to make the case this is actually a good idea. So you have two guys who, Lonzo definitely a little up and down

on the Lakers and then really up and down last season in New Orleans was not good in the bubble, but I'm sure the bubble, there are always reasons why that matter transcended basketball. You put those two together and now I actually feel better about them off the court

because they have each other and on the court could be really fun together. And I don't know, if you're Chicago, you're looking for identity and you could turn Kobe White in the fourth pick into the Ball brothers, put them with Zach Levine, Wendell Carter, Lori Markkinen. That's a fun team. I'm watching that team on League Pass. By the way, that's also a team that could give up the first 110-point game to a player

because nobody on that team would be able to guard anybody. Who cares? I am in the Chicago should go for both balls camp. I think that would be really fun. And of course, that would involve New Orleans trading Lonzo for Kobe White. New Orleans has been all over the map. They kind of want to trade Drew Holiday.

They don't want to take too much money back. Who the hell knows what they're doing? All I know is David Griffin seems to win these deals. And he's somebody I'd be very careful trading with. He's really rebounded from the Mozgov trade where he gave up two first round picks for Mozgov. Ever since then, it's been a lot smoother sailing for him. But I'm ready for anything. I'm excited. So my prediction, I think it's more likely Westbrook stays in Houston than gets traded. I think it's more likely Chris Paul stays in OKC

than gets traded. And I think it's more likely Harding gets traded before Westbrook. Those are my three things I'll leave you with. All right, coming up, Kevin Clark and I are going to talk football. And the funny thing is, you get to hear us shit on the Colts and talk about how they're going to lose

to the Titans and then joke how, wow, wouldn't it be funny if the Colts actually beat the Titans? Well, that's what happened. And that's why I'm in a slump right now. So I'm just going to warn you ahead of time. That's all coming up. Let's take one break. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too.

You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way.

Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, Kevin Clark is here. Normally, he's hosting the Ringer NFL show on Thursdays and on Sundays too, but on Thursdays. And I texted him like a week ago and I was like, I'm stealing you from your own show. You're coming on mine instead of your show. It's a crossover. Yeah, crossover. And so if you want to hear that

ringer NFL show, I think it's Nora and Mallory are hosting this one. And then Kaelin Jones and Danny Kelly hopped on too. Fun show. There you go. Okay. We're going to do a million dollar picks in a little bit. Had a bad week last week, which I predicted because I was in Arizona for my daughter's soccer. And I get crushed every time my daughter's soccer goes head to head against NFL. It's just the way it goes. Before we do the picks, I wanted to talk about playoff odds and not just who's going to make the playoffs, but also the NFC. The NFC is in a really weird place. Yes. The Saints are plus 350 to win the NFC. None of us like the Saints.

Even as good as they looked last week against Tampa, there's still this unease because of Breeze's arm strength. It just makes people nervous. I'm starting to talk myself into the Saints. Oh, good. Make the case. Yeah, okay. So there's a couple of things. Number one, smart people in July and August

said wait until Brady gets half a season under his belt. And they're going to get better. You know, no one cares more about the details than Tom Brady.

He doesn't have a training camp, doesn't have OTAs, doesn't put pads on until August 15th. He's going to get better and better and better. And so week one, when the Bucs and the Saints played, I threw that out. I said, this doesn't matter. Brady's going to get better and better and better. And so week one, when, when the bucks

and the saints played, I threw that out. I said, this, this doesn't matter. Brady's going to get better and better and better. This was the closing the gap game for me. And then I didn't see that. And obviously, you know, they were, they're whipped everywhere. You know, Ali Marpet being out was a big thing with, with, with, with people who started the game. But I think that, that this was bigger than, than Ali Peck, quite frankly. The Saints were able to get a four-man rush the entire game. They were able to pressure Brady on half of his dropbacks when they had a four-man rush. That's really good. Since Marcus Davenport's come back in week five, they have the most pressures in football, pressure rate in football. There's just something there. The problem at the beginning of the year was that Lattimore

and Marcus Williams were bad. And those are two pretty good players. And I think that a good pass rush can solve that. Those guys can get better. And so with Breeze, listen, there are problems with the fact that you can't throw down the field. The offensive line is not as good as it has been in years past. It doesn't matter with Breeze because he gets rid of the ball in a second. He's like Peyton Manning.

He doesn't need the best. Cause he gets rid of the ball in a second. He's like Peyton Manning. He doesn't need, you know, the, the, the best offensive line in the world. Um, and then Lattimore who we were kind of dunking on, because at one point he was giving up almost a perfect passer rating. He owns Mike Evans.

He owns him. He has not given up a reception to Mike Evans. The last three games that they've played. And so when, if those guys play in the playoffs again, there's that matchup. So I don't, I'm feeling better about the saints now than I was two,

three weeks ago. Good coaching staff. I guess coaching staff. Yeah. So the, the, the fear, and this isn't just the saints,

but the fear is all right, what happens if they're down 10 in a playoff game? It's basically the Lamar Jackson corollary. How am I feeling if I'm down 13 to three in the second quarter and they've just done a three and out? What are my emotions in that moment? That's my fear with the Saints because of Breeze. I think that they're,

because you don't think they're capable of the big play. Is that your fear? If teams know like, all right, they've got to air this out. They've got to quicken the pace. And also it's amazing to me. Kamara has probably been the MVP. I think it's either him, cook my homes,

Murray in some order. Okay. I'm amazed that teams aren't just like, all right, we're taking him out. Like Belichick in his prime before he added his kids to the coaching staff and decided to throw away five straight drafts. Belichick in his prime. he added his kids to the coaching staff and decided to throw away five straight drafts. Belichick in his prime.

All he would do would be like, Kamara is not beating me. You can have everyone else on the saints. I'm not getting beaten by that guy. I'm falling everywhere. He goes, we're hitting him constantly. He's not beating me.

Why don't teams do that with them? I don't get it. Okay. So first of all, they have a lot of, of weapons, I think, especially when Michael Thomas is healthy. There's a lot of of weapons i think especially when michael thomas is healthy

um there's a lot they can do there you know i think peter king had a really good breakdown his column this week about there was a play where the bucks dropped eight men into coverage and it was a weird play they had their full backs put out wide and breeze hit a random tight end adam troutman for a touchdown even throwing into eight men like that there's just something there Breeze is still really really good and so I think it's it's a bit simplistic to say just take away Kamara because they can do other stuff um and and they can they can change their game plan so much one of the things Bill about the last couple of months is that everything all the people all the GMs all the coaches said in training camp about what the season was going to be like was pretty much correct, is that it is about continuity, and it's about good coaches and good quarterbacks,

all the things that are normally important, but they're just accelerated this year. And, okay, there's a scoring boom. Well, there's always a scoring boom, just a bigger scoring boom than normal. And so I think that the ability for the Saints to be really, really complicated, I think that's important because they can do things against defenses that are just not ready for. Obviously, the Bucks should be an awesome defense if they're number one in DVOA. Todd Bowles is an awesome defensive coordinator. But the Saints just have these little edges, which over the course of a game matter a lot.

And I think that that's why at this point I like the Saints probably as my NFC team among those dominant teams. They just have the flaws that I think are most manageable. And I think that this is a little bit more Eastern conferency with the NBA to make the NBA comparison where we're going to look

at this and everything is going to feel explicable when we look back on it. And I just feel like the saints can manage their flaws. Very good case. With all that said, I would take out Camara and I would never let him beat me. And if the fucking backup tight end and Emmanuel Sanders and whoever else you have to have,

Adam Troutman has 120 yards. Knock yourself out. I agree with you. They are by far, by far the by far, the safest pick of the favorites. Now, here's the catch.

Because of this weird COVID season, because we don't know what we're getting week to week, because this isn't a great conference to begin with, is there a 2020 Miami Heat scenario where you could have the five seed that all of a sudden

is knocking teams out? Plus, you know, round by round, you might have this round two game all of a sudden is knocking teams out. Plus, you know, round by round, you might have this round two game where it's like, oh, Kamara's not playing. He has COVID. Like, who the fuck knows? So I want to go through the odds and we'll try to figure out if there's a Miami Heat potential with somebody. We got that Saints at plus 350, Seahawks plus 350, which is amazing considering they can't

stop anybody. Packers plus 450, Bucks at plus 450, which might be, they just might've had a terrible aberration game. That might actually be decent odds. The Rams 10 to one, who I think we both like. Cards 50 to one, who I know I like. Then after that, it goes Eagles 17 to one, Bears 31 to one, Niners 31 to one, Vikings 44 to one. Then it gets dumb. Panthers hundred to one mile. Mildly interesting. Who is the Miami heat of that group to you?

If there's anyone from that group, that wouldn't surprise me with the, with the longer shots we're talking about here. That's, that would be the Miami heat analogy here. Not the, not the rappers, not the bucks, not whomever. It would be the Rams for me. Okay. Five 38 has them at 63% to make the playoffs. I think they do.

I think they have blue chippers on a bunch of different levels of both offense and defense. Golf is the problem. We saw that against Miami is that he can be he can be off. But I really like again, comes down to continuity, coaching, all that stuff, raw talent, and the Rams have that. Jalen Ramsey is really good, both those cornerbacks. Well, they're kind of built to win

this year because of all the picks they traded. So it would make sense. All the picks and the cap stuff. And they're one of these teams where you do not want to be going into next year with cap problems. And they're one of these teams that it is. It's the books are not. And this is true of half the league next year, but the books are not pretty.

Yeah. Uh, all right. Saints. I mean, uh, Rams, the rest of the way they're five and three right now coming off a buy big game against Seattle, which we'll be covering a million dollar picks. Then they're at Tampa the next week on ESPN. Home for San Francisco, who might either be done completely for the year or

weirdly rallying and getting guys back. Who knows? At Arizona, home New England. New England will be done at that point. Home for the Jets. At Seattle, home Arizona. So it feels like they'll be in that 10-6, 11-5 range,

I would guess, right? They've played the whole NFC East, which is a problem. Seattle still has three NFC East games to go, which is... Really, if you're looking... If you want to go through the over-unders and trying to make some money, go through who has NFC East games left,

because there's a handful of these teams. And so Seattle has the easiest schedule remaining, I think, in the NFL by opponent's winning percentage. The Rams are 12th. So they actually have a pretty hard schedule the rest of the way. I just kind of believe in their talent.

They have to beat the Seahawks at some point. So, all right, what's the kryptonite with the Rams? Any team that can rush Jared Goff and make that weird look on his face. Then you're golden. Can I say something? I will say this. The thing that changed

my mind about Goff a little bit is how overwhelmed he looked in the Superdome two years ago. I was at that game. It was so loud. It was cover my ears loud and it was obviously cover his ears loud. He looked so rattled early in that game. And I thought this guy's done stick a fork in him and his ability to at least hang in there changed in my mind, the narrative about golf a little bit. He can get off. I mean, he can get off his game a little bit and lose it for stretches at a time. But I don't think he's kind of an emotional wreck the way some quarterbacks can be. Was that the same speech you gave Sean McVay when he asked you if he should

sign Jared Goff for $120 million? And you're like, you know, Sean, that Saints playoff game really changed my opinion. I think you should do it. Yeah, that was it. He called me out. It was over text. We're both millennials. He said, Casey, what do you think? So here's the thing with them, the last eight games.

They really only play one team that has a pass rush, which would be the thing you're scared about with him, right? It's Tampa in week 11. Other than that, depleted San Francisco on down the line. Arizona might blitz them a little bit, but for the most part, I actually think he could light it up the second half of the year because they're pretty healthy.

I don't know. I'm with you. Between that and the weapons and the coach and kind of the urgency factor with them, I could see that one. The other one I wanted to talk about was the Cardinals though because they're 15-1.

And I don't know. I weirdly thought that was an okay loss for them against Miami. They kind of shot themselves in the foot. I think Miami's good. I didn't come away from that game going, oh my God, I'm out on Arizona. I was, if anything, like a tiny bit more intrigued

because I think Miami's good. I thought that was a really good game. Okay. Of the NFC contenders, and we can throw them in at the bottom here. Would you agree Cliff Kingsbury is the worst coach? By far. Yes. So I think that that, for me, in a very simplified season, that weighs heavily on me,

decision-making, experience. And this is going to be the hardest and most unusual playoffs of our lifetimes. And right now, I'm looking for teams. One of the things that's impressing me about teams like the Bills or the Chiefs or the Steelers is how many different ways they're winning games and how many different levels of success they can have. And with the Cardinals, I'm intrigued to see how this develops. And I'm intrigued to see the adaptability throughout

the year and all that stuff. I love Kyler. Kyler, for me, was a preseason MVP pick. I think he's getting more confidence. And I think for a player like that, that is so important. He understands his talent, which I think, I don't know if he did last year. There's a little more hesitation in this game. He was completing 80% of his deep balls last year over 30 yards. And I think he understands now he can go to that and throw those quote-unquote moon balls.

So I think that there's a lot there. I just think that this is going to be so hard the next two months because of COVID testing or, oh, we lost this guy six hours before the game or we lost this guy on Friday. I want the best coach,

not the worst coach of the contenders. I still think Cliff Kingsbury has made huge strides, but he's just not there for me yet. I predicted on my podcast on Sunday that Arizona was going to be this year's team that lost an agonizing playoff game where their fans weirdly felt good about it. But at the same time, like, oh my God, we actually probably could have made the Superbowl if that didn't happen. I think they're the runaway leading candidate for that

spot. Every year there's a team like that. You just kind of go, my God, why did we try the 55-yard field goal right before halftime that got blocked? I think there's no way Cardinals fans don't come out of this season feeling amazing. They're kind of playing with house money right now because they know they have power for the next

decade. It's fine. Kind of a secretly solid run for them this century. The cards, the Warner team was really fun. Like their dark moments are super dark, but they've had some good teams, you know, they've had some, I don't know. I've, I've kind of enjoyed them. I even enjoyed that one Jake's Jake, the snake season. So they have a couple of easy games left. They have, well at Denver is not easy, but Denver's look terrible. They have a jets game. They have a home easy games left. They have... Well, at Denver, it's not easy. But Denver's look terrible. They have a Jets game.

They have a home game against the Frisky Bengals. They have the Pats, who will be a corpse by that point. And they finish the season at Buffalo in a game that Buffalo might not even need. They have the ninth-hardest schedule going forward by opponent winning percentage. So it's something to watch. All right. So we like we like Arizona

and we like I like Arizona. You we both like the Rams. Those would be our two Miami Heat candidates. All right. I think I agree with that. We're gonna take a break and talk about playoff bets. Life and death were two very realistic coexisting possibilities in my life.

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Other conditions apply. See Pennzoil.ca slash warranty for full details. So I jotted down kind of the locks for the playoffs where like AFC, KC, Pitt, Ball, those three are in, right? I'm just putting them in. I don't see any scenario where we don't have the Chiefs, Steelers, and Ravens in the playoffs. You also have an AFC East and AFC South team, which makes five. So let's put Buffalo in.

Let's say Tennessee wins tonight against Indy. So we'll give Tennessee that spot. That gives us two more spots for Cleveland, Vegas, Miami, and the second place AFC South team, which will be, I'm guessing Indy. Who knows? Could be Tennessee, but it'll be one of those four. So two of those teams are going to make the playoffs. Cleveland, Vegas, Miami, the second-tier Tennessee-Indianapolis team.

Who are your two? Okay. So this is going to be a little bit controversial. I think Cleveland. And I think Miami. So at some point, we have to look at the schedules here. And I don't want to leave this whole thing about schedules with Cleveland. They have jets,

Jaguars, giants, Texans, Eagles. Okay. They're basically guaranteed nine wins in life. They have a disastrous loss when they're like, at least like an-point favorite.

So am I worried that Baker went on the COVID list this week? Sure, but it looks like that he's going to play and all that stuff. Kevin Stefanski is a really good coach. That roster is really good. They were able to... Everybody was early on them, including me, and they were able to see kind of the post-hype

and then plug the holes and get the offensive holes and get, get the offensive line squared away. I figure out what they need. I guess there apparently is the Odell Beckham Ewing theory appears to be real at this point because of how their offense is just functioning. Glad you brought that up. I was kind of against it at first, but then I,

you know, it's a lot of people, but a lot of people who Richard Sherman was the first person to basically say hey, it's just flowing better when you don't get locked on that one target. I think a lot of people have come around to including me. Now, I think that Andrew Barry,

their GM, is one of the best young GMs in football. I think he's the youngest ever. I just think that this is getting to be I don't want to jinx it. This is getting to be a well-run organization. And I think that they understand the position to put Baker in, and I think that they're probably going to make the playoffs.

I have Miami in there. They're plus 180 to make the playoffs. They're down to basically four and a half to one to win the division, which would be a tall task. They'd have to beat Buffalo when they go head to head and then somehow make up another game. Cleveland is yes to make the playoffs right now

and FanDuel minus 138. No is plus 114. Here's the case for them not making the playoffs because you mentioned they played- The tiebreaker with the Raiders, it goes to Las Vegas. Right. So you got that.

They play the two New York teams, which you mentioned, and Jacksonville. So you got that. They play the two New York teams, which you mentioned, and Jacksonville. So literally, it would be really hard not to win those three games. Although the Giants have this little hop in their step lately.

The D-line. D-lines. The Cleveland, this week against Houston, I feel like will give us our answer on whether they're a playoff team or not. They're favored by three and a half right now in FanDuel. Houston, I don't know. They might be able to throw on them. They

might be able to move the ball. It seems like the kind of dumb game that the Browns in the past have lost when people have just penciled them in, in a picks pool. You bet on Cleveland, you put them in a money line parlay, and then all of a sudden they're down 10-0 and you're going, what the hell is going on? They do get Nick Chubb back this week, which we'll talk about later. But, uh, I I'm, I'm almost not ready to pick until I see that game on whether I think they can make it or not. Cause I do think they could totally lose to Houston as weird as that sounds. The Texans. I think this is weird because I've been talking about the Texans being a tire fire for many years now. And I actually think we haven've been talking about the Texans being a tire fire for many years now.

Yeah. And I actually think we haven't been talking enough about it. I feel like I've undersold how disastrous the Texans are. There's a piece of turf that was there. You didn't grab it. I should have moved my family to Houston and just stood outside the stadium and said, what the hell is going on here? Because this looks really bad right now.

They were able to beat the Jaguars. Congratulations. But I think that I'm with you in the sense that if they beat the Browns this week, something is seriously wrong. I just don't think that's much of a possibility. So I had... Here's why they probably won't.

They have the 28th rush defense by DVOA. And they're the 32nd running team by DVO way. Um, and they're the 32nd running team by DVO way. And that's like against the Browns. You want to be able to stop their run and you want to be able to run on them. They can't do either. Um, on the same time,

we haven't had that crazy Deshaun Watson. Oh my God game yet. So who knows? Anyway, I have Miami as one of the two and then it's process of, I think Miami is going to make it. I think Miami is good at the plus one. Yeah. I like that. Anyway, I have Miami as one of the two. And then it's process of elimination. I think Miami is going to make it. I think Miami is good at the plus 180. I like that. So process of elimination.

The indie stuff's alarming. The quarterback situation is alarming and the fact that Taylor, who is their big kind of ceiling guy, who is losing his job or maybe already lost his job. And they were counting him.

T.Y. Hilton's already hurt. And there's just a lot of bad signs with them. I don't like the look of it, especially they jump out 7-0 to Baltimore and then basically don't score again. They get one field goal. I'm very concerned about them and I would not feel good about saying

that that's a playoff team. I agree. I thought that this was going to be... I thought Phillip Rivers was the missing piece, and I've been a little bit disappointed in that, and I thought that roster was going to be able to... A little bit? How do you get fully disappointed?

What else do they have to do? Take a shit? Let's not. Let's not. Let's not. Listen, they lost to the Ravens. Okay, like let's not throw everything out here.

This is the weird Jaguars. Early in the season. I think that every team that's been okay needs some sliver of patience here especially when they're trying new things like bringing a new quarterback into it because again

we can't say this is the weirdest season of all time for some teams but not others okay Darius Leonard looked elite last week and he looked like one of the best athletes playing linebacker in the NFL I mean there are some things I still like about this team

to where when I look at them I say okay I understand why I fell in love with this team. But, and I picked them doing the AFC East. I don't, I'm not ready to give up on them. I'm just saying that I thought they'd be, they'd be rolling a lot more right now. Well, in classic BS podcast fashion, we're taping this before the Tennessee Indianapolis game. So God only knows what's going to happen to make one of us sound super dumb. Oh, God. Vegas has the corpse of the Denver... I'm going to break into Kyle's house

and steal the tapes if they lose 40-0 tonight. Vegas has the corpse of Denver this week. A tough Sunday night Kansas City game. Atlanta, the jets, a possible Colts corpse situation in week 14, the chargers who will lose in the last minute. Cause that's what they do. Miami week 16 at Denver week 17. So I'm going to go out on a limb and say that is an incredibly favorable schedule. I really like it for them. And I think I'm going Miami-Vegas. So you're going

Miami-Cleveland. I'm going Miami-Vegas for those two. Isn't it amazing how much of a competitive advantage the teams that play the Jets have in the playoff race? I mean, it's really like the league should step in. Well, we'll talk during

Million Dollar Picks about how bad I think the Patriots are Because They barely beat the Jets Like if the Jets just get a first down with five minutes left We lose to the Jets We lose to Joe Flacco We were texting about this earlier and I don't want to get into the Ravens Pats thing yet but

I will say part of the problem here Is that I've known you for four and a half years I've very rarely heard you say a positive thing about the Patriots. Oh. And so it's true. I've waited on them. You've waited. But that's but I'm saying when we have these discussions.

Oh, well, that's my. It's part of my process. Right. I have a process. I'm sorry. It's just what I'm texting with you today. And we're talking about this. And you're saying, oh, the Pats can't do this.

I can't even tell what's real because as far as you're being down in the Pats, because it's kind of, you know, you're doing, you've done this in Superbowl years, for instance. Do you want me to say a couple of nice things about the Pats?

I really like Damien Harris, even though I think I don't even know when he's playing again after he got destroyed in a Jets game. Myers and birds have been pretty good. And, and I'ves have been pretty good. And I've been shocked by how good Nick Falk has been. I actually think his field goals are going through now. I did not feel that way two months ago.

So there are three positive things. All right, NFC locks. I'm just going to pencil in Green Bay, the Saints, NFC East winner, NFC West winner. So there's four. Okay. The last three spots, two NFC West winner. So there's four. The last three spots, two NFC West teams.

So whoever doesn't win the division out of Seattle, Zona, and the Rams. And then Tampa. And it's a wrap, which begs the question, do we really already know who the seven NFC playoff teams are? Because I feel like we do.

It looks that way. The only thing would be the Bears, who have a very easy schedule. But I have just... I cannot even watch the Bears anymore. I mean, to go play the Titans and basically solve... The Titans have so many flaws, and the Bears solved all of them.

It was unbelievable. They had the worst third-down defense many flaws, and the Bears solved all of them. It was unbelievable. They had the worst third down defense in history, and the Bears was like, oh, we'll just not convert more than two third downs. It's fine. The Titans couldn't generate any pass rush until they played the Bears. I think this Bears team is just...

Mathematically, they're still in it, and when I look at their schedule, if they were another team, I would look at their circumstances and tell you they were still in it. I'm looking at this Bears team and telling you they're not still in it. And when I look at their schedule, if they were another team, I would look at their circumstances and tell you they were still in it. I'm looking at this Bears team and telling you they're not still in it. I'm overruling math here. Completely agree.

It's one of the... I like Bears fans. I like how realistic they are about their own teams. I think it's a rare trait for a football fan base. They're about as out on this Bears team as they've been a while. The coaching, QB, pace,

all the dumb things they do. It's really strange. I'm going to make a tiny case for the Vikings, just that we should have talked about them for two minutes. They're 3-5. They actually have some momentum. They beat Green Bay. They killed Detroit last week. They're playing Chicago this week, Monday night.

They get through that. They're 4-5. They're playing Chicago this week, Monday night. They get through that. They're four and five Dallas the next week. That's five and five Carolina Jacksonville. The next two, there is a world. And we see this. I remember when I, when I had my column, you know, I used to be a writer, Kevin, way back when, um, I used to always write about the week eight, week nine flip team, right? It was always a team that was one in five, two and five, uh, two and six. And second half of the year, they came on like a freight train. You have this Minnesota team starts out one in five. There's a world in which there's seven and five coming off that Jacksonville win in week 13. And then rest of the way, there would be Tampa at Tampa home, Chicago at New Orleans at

Detroit. You split two of those, you get to nine and seven, and that might be a seven seed. It might be. So I want to talk about Minnesota too, because I didn't even see them on the sports book and to make the playoffs, because I think that that's wouldn't be a bad long shot. You think, you think, you think Fandle just got scared and took them off? Cowards. Come on. Fandle.

I may have just missed it, but I did a control F and couldn't find it. But with Cook, this isn't Occam's Razor season. I've said this for five months. And if you can do one thing well, you can just keep doing it over and over and over again. Kirk Cousins is not going to single-handedly lift you to an elite second half of the season.

But Dalvin Cook has 206 yards last week and 163 yards the week before. He had over 200 all-purpose yards against the Packers. He set all sorts of records for yards in Lambeau Field. And I kind of think he can do that for the next eight weeks. And I think that there's two things. I don't want to be morbid here, but if there's a game canceled that matters

in the playoff race, I'm sure you saw on Tuesday, the NFL said that they will expand the playoffs to eight teams, which is very important. I don't know. By the way, I have no idea what that does to the playoff bets. They probably take them off the table at that point. They're voided.

I actually looked that up. I looked up the fine print. That's fair. If it's not seven teams per conference, it's voided. So from a betting standpoint, that's irrelevant. But from a competitive standpoint, that obviously does matter if there's a team that gets to eight or nine and seven so i think that's a huge thing um right now and then i just i just like this vikings team i mean there's a reason i picked them i think i picked them to make the playoffs

or close to it uh at the beginning of the season because i think they do have talent i'm generally higher on kirk cousins than most people because i think that do have talent. I'm generally higher on Kirk Cousins than most people because I think that he can just sort of go as his supporting cast does, even though he makes some of these mistakes. I think you can put him in the position to succeed. And so I kind of, you know,

Gary Kubiak, I kind of like it. I kind of like a nice little run here. I did Fando totally cowardly with the NFC North bed, all that stuff with the Vikings. But they do have an over-under for wins, which is 7.5.

So you can bet on the Vikings going 8-8 or 9-7. Plus 1.15. They have the Jags, the Cowboys, and then the Lions as well. The problem with that bet is it's like, let's go to Minnesota, watch Dalvin Cook. It feels like he pulled something. And now he's on the cart. And it's like, okay, that bet is it's like, let's go to Minnesota. Watch Dalvin Cook. It feels like he pulled something.

And now he's on the cart. And it's like, okay, that bet's gone. So a couple of playoff bets quick. Indy, yes, minus 138. No, plus 114 to make the playoffs. I kind of like the no. Granted, they'll throw it in our face. Just from an odd standpoint, I would go with no.

Chargers are 20 to 1 so the Chargers have the best four man rush in the NFL right now they have the most fun quarterback in the history of the league he's completely impervious to blitzing and pressure I mean he's like he's amazing he can throw 65 yards on the fly

off his back foot and he looks like he's And he looks like he's 12 He looks like he's 12 Is there like an argument That at some point they're just going to win Just 8 straight games if they shouldn't Like luck is just Going to overload them

I mean they could get to 9 and 7 And 9 and 7 could absolutely make the playoffs But unfortunately they've lost to a lot of the people They'd be in the tiebreaker with. Do you could, you could, you could just bet Herbert rookie of the year. 20 to one.

I think 20 to one is, is probably too high considering nine and seven makes it, um, the, the pats. Yes. Is plus five 80. I would strongly encourage people against that.

Carolina's yes. Was 14 to one. I was trying to figure out a way that would happen, but with McCaffrey injured, I think that's probably there's three and 14 to one. I was trying to figure out a way that would happen, but with McCaffrey injured, I think that's probably there's three and six right now. They were okay without McCaffrey. No, I mean,

if they're three and six, they'd have to go six and one rest of the way. And they actually have a hard schedule. So Dallas is plus eight 70. If you just wanted a short Philly and ride some sort of, when Andy Dalton comes back, this could happen. Oh, when Andy Dalton comes back, this could happen. Oh, when Andy Dalton comes back, that'll solve everything.

I'm just saying plus 870. Arizona is minus 160 to make the playoffs and the Rams are minus 225. Some places allow you to parlay those. I would actually parlay Arizona and the Rams together because I think both of them make it. So there you go. All right. We're going to take one more break and then do Million Dollar Picks. All right.

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Tennessee, 800-889-9789. Or visit 1800gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, million dollar picks. last week, our first losing week in two months lost $725,000. Thanks to the Seattle Seahawks who let me down and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who just rolled over and died. Did hit on the Miami money line for plus 175, saving a disastrous thing. So I'm down 186,000 for the year. I really like this slate. We're going to go through the games quick. First one, this is a tease. I'm giving you one side of the tease. We're going to have to figure out who else is in it. The Ravens are six and a half point favorites over the Pats. They have the fifth rushing offense by DVOA, the Ravens.

There's a little edge to them because people have just kicked them to the side of the curve. Meanwhile, their defense is playing great. The Pats defense, 31st in DVOA. And DVOA matters now because we have big enough sample size. They're not just 31st. They're 30th pass, 31st rush. They're terrible in every capacity. They have no push at all.

Their front seven's awful. And the Ravens' D is first against, in rushing DVOA, the only thing the Pats can do is run the ball, and they're going against the best run defense in the league. Every single sign I look at with this game says that the

Pats are going to get killed. Now I'm happy to tease it down or I'm happy to just lay the minus six and a half, but Kevin, make the case. Make the case they don't get killed. Make the case they hang around. Just tell me why they're in this game in the fourth quarter. Sure. I can make the case. So Lamar Jackson comes out and says something that I think a lot of people were, have been talking about the past couple of weeks, which is that the, the defense knows what the plays are going to be and they were calling them out. So he goes in the Rich Eisen show and says that this week, uh, I think that there's Dan Orlovsky did a great

breakdown of this on NFL live today, actually about just how predictable some of these looks are. And this is something that, listen, I don't want to flip this with Lamar here because he had one of the best infrastructures in football last year. And I don't want to say he's with an offensive coordinator who's failing him or whatever. I don't want to go that far. Okay? Nick Wright was on Swan Newsday last week and he said that Lamar Jackson is the Giannis of the NFL.

I don't want to go that far because it completely undersells. That's a great take. I'm going to steal that two weeks from now. Pretend I didn't remember you told me that one that that's a great take I might still I'm gonna steal that two weeks from now pretend I didn't remember you told me that one that's a really good one I I don't necessarily agree because I think that the Ravens have done so much more for for Lamar uh to have to put him in position to succeed it's still a great take I'm not saying it's just just a wonderful take Lamar is an amazing quarterback

and I thought he would take a little further step with you know John Harbaugh was talking about his deep passing and stuff in the offseason and I thought there'd be a little bit more of that but there's just a little bit of of predictability with this offense and I think now that the Ravens are

probably going to try to be super unpredictable this weekend. Oh, get goofy. Okay. And I think there might be some hiccups there. That would be my only thought. Or they remain predictable in which Belichick can figure it out.

So do you think they're predictable because they simplified stuff for Lamar so they could run this specific type of offense and teams have just figured it out? What is it? I did a piece in January where I talked to a bunch of people about this and essentially they were saying they were only

running a pretty small playbook out of a million different looks. And they were... That works. There's a lot of teams that do that. A lot of teams do that, but at some point when you just get enough tape on you, people know.

Orlovsky was saying, especially when they went into empty sets, that they were running the same plays. I think the point he made was they ran the same exact play on the first play of the game than the first play of the second half. I think that at some point, defenses just start to figure that out.

I don't think that they were running... I mean, listen, any team, I remember Albert Breer reported this, that basically the Patriots knew if they drafted Lamar Jackson, that the change everything. Okay. And so it's not like, you know, any team would have had to change their offense for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens did it as well as any team could. And so, but I just think that they probably need to get a little bit more multiple. And I think that there's probably something there. I think that I don't think that Lamar Jackson is painting a picture in which the defense is sitting there and saying, we know every play you're going to run. I'm just saying that if he's coming out and saying that there's obviously some problems there and there's some run past tells that need to be addressed. Is nephew Kyle still awake? Nephew Kyle? You there? Remember that night

when we watched a draft in my office and we didn't take Lamar Jackson? Yeah. Just wanted to bring that up. I watched that draft with Mallory and she had a different reaction than you. Okay. I think we're going to get killed this week and I'm not doing that

I'm reversing this Pats team their defensive front seven is really bad it's really bad it's going to be like when they went against the Niners and the Niners were just running for seven yards of play and it was like oh four minutes in the game it's like to be like when they went against the Niners and the Niners were just running for seven yards of play and it was like oh

four minutes in the game it's like oh this is over I also don't think the Pats can play from behind anyway mark that one down next one by the way I just want to say the Ravens are going to win that game I'm just making the case for it to be no I'm with you

we're marking it down next one cards bills cards favored by one and a half. Arizona 11th DVOA, Buffalo 13th. Buffalo coming off a great win. Cards coming off a dumb loss. It's in Arizona. People feeling good about Josh Allen. I thought

Warren Sharp made a good case for the Bills last week on Ringer NFL about how their offense had looked bad, but the circumstances were weird in a couple of games where bad weather, one game, the other one was the COVID game. They're preparing for one team. All of a sudden they're playing the Titans and their offense looked really

good last week. Then again, it's against Seattle. As you said earlier, Murray is getting better week after week after week. I like the line. I do feel like this should be in that one and a half to two and a half range.

Basically the cards just have to win. Not a must win for Buffalo. They're seven and two. Different conference is a must win for the cards. I just like the cards team more. I know the bills look great last week, but I believe in this cards team. And I said this Sunday night, I think that Cardinals Dolphins game, it's not far fetched to think that could have been the Superbowl. I'm not saying it could happen, but I'm saying if you gave me like 75 to one odds on that, I would look at it because I think both of those teams are good. Anyway, cards minus one and a half. I like that one. Anything you would talk me out of here? No, I mean, I love both of these teams. I love the depth in Buffalo and I just love kind of what I flicked out earlier,

which is their ability to win in different ways. I think the bill showed me something last week as far as just the depth they had, you know, AJ Klein coming out and having an amazing game, guys like that.

And I'm so in a year again where there's so much about adaptability, just to have the ability to have people come in for injured guys, that's the game. And so taking advantage of a terrible Seahawks defense that wanted to let you pass on them, having guys everywhere who are making plays that shouldn't,

I love that Bills team, but I think the Cardinals probably win. On Fandle, Arizona and Miami to win their conferences. Miami's 28 to 1. Cardinals are 15 to 1. And if you combine those two, it's 460 plus 463.

That seems high. Is that possible? It's a pretty good long shot bet. Send it in. Might have to put some wood on that one. All right a pretty good long shot bet. Send it in. Might have to put some wood on that one. All right. We both like the cards. Yeah.

Josh Allen is, Josh Allen just seems like he's ready to break some hearts when we get to January. It's going to be some gamblers hearts are going to be broken. Next one, Dolphins Chargers, another team we've talked about. This is a little different.

Dolphins coming off a really inspiring win. Actually, two inspiring wins in a row. Plus the whole, oh, good. Two is actually good. This is great thing. Some COVID stuff with them this week, including Kyle Van Nooyen. Chargers coming off yet another awful loss.

I like the Dolphins here for a variety of reasons. Not just because I've been in on them the last couple of weeks I've been riding them. The one thing they're not great at is stopping the run. I feel like you can run on them and have long drives on them. Well, what are the Chargers not good at? Running the ball, especially since Eckers out. They're 27th in DVOA rushing.

The Dolphins' rush D is 29th. I just like the matchup for the Dolphins because I think it's, they can get stops if you're throwing on them when they need to. And I think they can move the ball. I think they're going to be able to move the ball on the Chargers. The Bosa thing with the Chargers

where he's never a hundred percent or he's out in big drives. And it's just, and every time they show him on the sidelines, it looks like he's 210 pounds. And this is the guy they rely on basically for their entire pass rush. I don't get that. Also, like if you him on the sidelines, it looks like he's 210 pounds. And this is the guy they rely on basically for their entire pass rush. I don't get that.

Also, like if you're on the Chargers and you're just losing this way week after week, at some point you break. And I feel like they're due for a terrible game where it's like, maybe this isn't the one where we lose by two. Actually, we lose by 28 and we suck and fuck this. They're due for one of those games.

So anyway, I like the Dolphins. I think I like the Dolphins, but I will say this about a matchup problem. So PFF had this this week that the Chargers have the lowest blitz rate in the league and still create pressure within two and a half seconds, 30% of the time.

Okay, that's the second best mark in the league. And the Dolphins offensive line can be beaten. Rams has. Yep. Tua has made mistakes. Listen, anybody's going to make mistakes. If there's a defensive tackle in their face,

as soon as they get the ball. And so I think you might see some uncharacteristic, I guess it's too early to say if it's uncharacteristic mistakes, but you might see some mistakes that way. But I actually like, I'm a little bit worried. We don't know the status. Kyle Van Nooy and Christian Wilkins were put on the COVID list on Thursday afternoon.

Don't know the status of those guys. It could be very close. I like the Dolphins in a vacuum. Here's the case against them, other than what you just mentioned. The Dolphins fans are out of their mind right now. They're so pumped. They're the guy in the desert who just got a bottle of water

and some saltines, and they feel like they've won the lottery. And if we've learned anything with sports, and you know because you're an Orlando Magic fan, you're used to getting kicked in the nuts as hard as possible. This does feel like it could be a kick in the nuts game where it's like, this is great. We win this. And then if the Bills can lose, then we're a game back

and you just start thinking ahead and and yet you actually have to win the game. And as you said, now the Chargers they're getting some pressure on Tua and it's like, oh my God, we're down to Tua throws a bad pick. There's a scenario where the Dolphins fans are doing the, oh my God, we're down to two throws a bad pick. There's a scenario where the Dolphins fans are doing the, oh my God, why did I let my guard down?

I don't know if it's this game or next week, but it's coming. I lived in Miami during the Wildcat year, 2008. Oh yeah. And I've never seen a fan base go from zero to 100 quite like that. Because they were 1-15 the year before. They only won one game because Greg Camarillo had that overtime touchdown. And then all of a sudden they beat the Pats in September the next year. And then they host a playoff game15 the year before. They only won one game because Greg Camarillo had that overtime touchdown. And then all of a sudden they beat the Pats

in September the next year. And then they host a playoff game against the Ravens. I've never seen a city just go... Because in 2007 there was just nothing. There was just no

Dolphins presence anywhere and then it went, again, 0-100. And the air that came out of that city when the Ravens came in and just stuffed them in a trash can.

It was really... It was one of the kind of sneaky, underrated, sad cities that I've experienced in journalism. I like when the Dolphins are good. When I was growing up, they would kick the Patriots ass every year and we would always like, it would come down to the last game of the season or some dumb shit or they would just beat us

twice. And Reno, at least in the first part of his career, was just terrifying. But I'm just... Dolphins Chargers, by the way, one of the most way before your time, but probably my favorite non-Patriot playoff game I've ever watched.

The hook and ladder, I can't tell you how exciting it was in the moment when they did it. It was honestly like, I can't even describe. I didn't even know what it was, what happened. Dick Enberg had a heart attack. It worked.

It was just like, oh my God, you could do that? It was amazing. That whole game was amazing. I remember where I watched it. I've watched it on NFL films. It's really great. It's really fun.

It feels like modern football. It feels like it's probably on YouTube. Everyone should probably watch that game. Oh my God. All right. Panthers-Bucks. Panthers 3-6. No, McCaffrey. This is kind of end of the line for them. Looked awesome against the Chiefs last week. Bucks, a little dissension coming off

an awful game. God only knows what's going on. They're still second in DVOA. It's a bounce-back game. It's the kind of game you just pencil in. You say, nah, on. They're still second in DVOA. It's a bounce back game. It's the kind of game you just pencil in. You say, nah, Tampa, they come back this week. And yet that Panthers team has a way of rising or falling to whoever their competition is.

And it's like, all right, we're playing a top five team. Watch this. We're up 17 to seven in the second quarter. They're really well coached. I think that David Tepper, who seemed like kind of an arrogant dick when he took over, when he took over the team, it was kind of like,

Oh, now, now you'll see, you know, I know my stuff and I was really successful in this line. I'll be successful here. And, and yet he hired a great coach and he did a good job.

I don't think he came off as arrogant or anything like that. I've never met the guy. I will say the one funny thing he did, not funny, but he fired a bunch of people or had layoffs and then they were like,

why'd you do this? And he was like, well, I think it was, I think it's, you know, it's not fair to those people to not have anything to do. So I just fired him and he was making it seem like he,

it was like doing them a favor by firing them. He's like, well, they didn't have much to do. During COVID. Sounds great, David. Well, he hired a great coach. And anyway, they're getting five and a half points in their home.

Carolina-Tampa games are usually weird. It's a division game. It feels like this could be a three-point game. I think the Bucs can, I mean, the Panthers can move the ball. And there's cheap touchdown

potential too. So I just wanted to flag this one because this could be one where you're down 11 with three minutes left and you still get the cheap touchdown. I also think whatever is going on

with the Bucs, I mean, we all saw it on Sunday night, but the fact that they can't figure out how to unlock Evans at all and they can't figure out a running game at all and just basic stuff that you would need to build a lead makes me

wonder about them being favored like this on the road. Okay. I think that they have significantly more talent. I think that they have significantly more talent. I think that, again, Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator of the Panthers,

is awesome and he should be and probably will be head coach this time next year. Yeah. But I think that you've seen enough of pissed off Tom Brady to sort of know

what happens next. He's going to be just absolutely screaming at guys all week long. I think that they, the fixes are probably pretty easy. And I think that, you know, I probably pretty easy. And I think that,

you know, I don't think the Antonio Brown signing was, was very good for the franchise going forward. But I think that at some point you can unlock him. And I think that this is probably like a two touchdown bucks one. Okay. The bucks have a lot of talent on their roster. I mean,

I, you know, they have one of the best cornerbacks in football, pair them with the DC, that defensive line. I I'm, I'm in on this Bucs team. I was all in too,

until they, um, they ruined million dollar picks and, and Sunday night football last week. Then I wasn't as in, that was just my thing. Antonio Brown, when you bring him in,

I think the equivalent of like, like if the ringer just hired Antonio Brown and they're like, hey guys, good news. Antonio Brown is going to join the ringer and he's going to be coming to the office and doing football videos and podcasts. The general reaction would be like, what? Why?

What do you mean? Huh? Yeah. Anyway. Next one. I got three more quickies. Texans, Browns, Texans, Browns. We talked about, yeah. You like the Browns. I hate this Texans team. Yeah. So the rub, the rub, the reason to stay away from this is I'm with you. I hate this Texas team. Plus you're betting on Romeo Crinnell, which I'd never suggest.

And if you bet on Romeo Crinnell for more than four hours, see a doctor. Great guy. What did you think of Belichick's excuse making to Charlie Weiss? Did you follow the exact interview thing? The fact that the first person

he said, oh, we were capped out to was he called into Charlie Weiss's radio show. Feels like a plant, Bill. Belichick has taken no responsibility for the last five drafts. I just want to hear him say it once.

Hey, we missed on some drafts. Just say it. It's not hard. I was surprised. We all have football reference. We can all go look at the drafts and be like, wow. I was surprised you did that.

We have no all pros. Okay, next one. Bengals plus six and a half against the Steelers. There's garbage time. Touchdown potential here. There's Joey covers coming off a bye. They looked really good

two weeks ago. The rub is the Steelers are undefeated. And since he's 31st in DBOA and you have Roethlisberger

with a weird COVID thing. I guess that would be one reason. This line's moved down. It's dropped two plus points. He's 31st in DBOA. And you have Roethlisberger with a weird COVID thing. I guess that would be one reason. This line's moved down. It's dropped two plus points. Sure. So they beat the Cowboys by five points last week. The Cowboys might be the worst team in football,

non-Jets division. They have not won a game by... And again, they're undefeated. They're great. I think they're a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But they haven't won a game by more than four points in the last three weeks. They beat the Titans by three, beat the Ravens by four. I just think they're not, there could be,

I don't think the Bengals are going to win. I would not be surprised if this was a four-point game. I love Joe Burrow. They've played one game where you left, the Steelers have played one game where you left the game and you said, oh, they're really good. And that was Cleveland 38 to seven. Other than that,

every week, even when they win, you're kind of like, eh, I mean, even that Baltimore game, they're down by 10, two hours into the game.

And Ben, Ben not practicing. The fact that Mike Tomlin, and this again, it's not funny, but Mike Tomlin was asked, you know,

are you concerned about Ben not practicing? And Mike Tomlin was like, absolutely not. Ben is just sort of perpetually banged up a little bit. Okay. We'll mark that one down. Let's do this quickly. Just Washington plus four and a half against the Lions.

The case is this. Washington has the best pass defense in the entire league. The Lions are a team that just throws the ball. The Lions four and a half. We're going to get Alex Smith. Basically, the case is, should the Lions be favored by more than four points over anybody except the two New York teams or Jacksonville?

Do you think Matt Patricia is rattled that Tony La Russa stole his worst coach in America crown? So you like the lines a little bit. Maybe that Washington, Washington's bad. Washington lost to the, the reason to stay away is Washington lost to the giants last week. Yeah.

I think that, listen, I think that there's a, a case you made for both teams here. I think, I think I like Detroit here, despite Matt Patricia. I think Matthew Stafford, who again had some weird COVID stuff this week, as long as he can play, I think that they have a baseline of success.

And I think that they can beat the Washington football team this is my guess okay last one um alright so Washington plus 172 according to FanDuel

to win that game outright last one Rams Seahawks I should have had this one higher on the list because I like the Rams Rams minus two

pretty they're pretty even with the DVOA, all that stuff. They played each other a million times, obviously. The big thing for me with the Rams is how horrible Seattle's defense is. And I don't mind Goff against bad defenses. I mind him against good defenses, but could the Rams make Wilson run around,

have teams started to figure out Seattle a little bit. And, you know, Wilson looked pretty mortal last week. Yeah. They, by the way, they,

they can't run the ball at all. They, the Carson high thing's been really bad for them. And, uh, I like the spot for the Rams. I don't know if every week they would beat them, but I like them this week coming off a buy. So spot for the Rams. I don't know if every week they would beat them, but I like them this week coming off a bye.

So I love the Rams defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley. And, you know, there's, I talked about this a couple of weeks ago on my show, but there was a PFF piece I thought was amazing about how basically he is, he's bringing the college sort of revolution that's come to offenses.

He's bringing that to defenses and he's able to stop the run without playing the run, so he's got more guys out to stop the passing game. He's really good, and that defense starts there. And so I think that Wilson might struggle a little bit. I don't think... I think Wilson has a baseline of success where you're always going to be pretty good.

I think that mortality for him is relative. I think he's still an MVP candidate and will remain so. I'm more concerned right now with the Seahawks defense. Jamal Adams has essentially, through half the season, has just not been worth two first-round picks. He might not be worth one first-round pick. He's, by the way, kind of a polarizing guy in football circles where some people love him and other people are just like,

yeah, he can only do like two things. And that's not, he's not a difference maker for two first runners. Right. And they're blitzing him now. They're giving up explosive plays all over the place

because they can't generate, and this is like a football-wide thing. If you can't do what you, the whole thing relies on, you're screwed. Okay? And the four-man rush for the Seahawks was able to solve

so many problems for them over the past decade. And now they have to start sending guys they wouldn't normally send, all that stuff. They just try to generate anything. There's a lot of problems in the Seahawks' defense, but that's one of them. And so the giving up explosive plays can't stop

anybody. I think that they're still a Super Bowl contender because I just believe in Russell Wilson that much. I think Pete Carroll's a good coach, but I think that the Rams, I think the Rams might be a little bit better right now.

I also like you're getting a free point here because I think this line should be Rams by three. So, case against the Rams would be Jared Goff against Russell Wilson

and you're not betting on Russell Wilson. That would be one case. And then the Rams are 4-0 against the NFC East and below 500 against everyone else would be the two cases. I was shook by Pete Carroll

in the postgame press conference after last week saying, I don't know why the Bills didn't run the ball more. And it's just like, I love Pete Carroll. We love him. Ringer, contributor, all that. But you can pass 90 times against the Seahawks and never becomes less successful. Why would you ever run?

I'm surprised that they ever ran. Right. Long shot parlay of the week. Here are the possibilities. Bengals plus 235. Panthers plus 205. Niners plus 320 if you're feeling a little Niners comeback game. You feeling that at all?

Tiny bit? Against the Saints? Saints coming off an awesome win? Seems far-fetched. I mean, the Niners are getting their guys back, but the Saints are just really good. Oh. So you're saying there's a chance, plus 320.

Listen, you play the Packers without Trent Williams, Brandon Ayuk, and Deebo Samuel, and you'll get your ass kicked. That was not a surprise for me. I do think the line's a tiny bit high. All right. So Niners plus 320. Giants are plus 146. I just can't ever bet on the Giants.

Texans plus 160. You hate the Texans. Washington is plus 172. So we'll narrow it down. Get rid of the Panthers. Bengals plus 235. We both like. Bengals plus 235 we both like. Niners plus 320 we both like. And Washington plus 172

I think would be the three candidates. What do you think? You got to team two of those together for the long shot parlay of the week. Bengals? Bengals are in. Let's put them in. Okay.

To end the Steelers end the Steelers streak. Joey covers, but we need one more. Who's the second one? Who are you leaning towards there? You do Niners. Niners, it's over 14-1

if those both hit. Niners, Bengals, plus 14-30. Bet $100, you win $1430. That's one option. And then the other one would be what did we say? Washington?

Yeah. Washington. The Washington football team. That one is plus 825. You know what? I think I'm going to do both. Okay. Yeah.

I like that. I'm going to sprinkle both. We'll make the Bengals the anchor team. Any money lines you like straight up or no? No. Okay. Any stick out to you? I think that Niners plus 320 is fun

yeah I was listen the Niners have one of the best coaches in football they've still got some talent there

I think we've all kind of thrown them in the trash can because of some of their injuries but they can still beat anybody if they're full strength yeah I think that's fun

million dollar picks week 10 here's what we're doing Kevin Clark teaser Ravens minus six and a half over the Patriots Million dollar picks week 10. Here's what we're doing, Kevin Clark. Teaser. Ravens minus six and a half over the Patriots. And then Kevin talked me into this.

Bucks minus five and a half against the Panthers. Both teams just have to win. Just win. We're going to be putting $300,000 on that. Cardinals at home minus one and a half over the B bills. Kyler Murray for life, 300,000. Kyler, here's the suitcase of money. Do your job. Dolphins, minus two and a half against the pathetic Chargers. Pathetic as in they get close every week and they blow it. My fear with this, is there any way the Chargers cover this but don't win the minus two and a half?

Do you get scared of that at all? Isn't everything in play with the Chargers? God. Everything. The Dolphins money line, oh, that line's down

to one and a half. Dolphins are minus 120. I'm just, I'm taking the Dolphins minus 120 just to win. So we're doing that. We're going to put 360 to win 300,000 on that.

And then last but not least, the Rams. The team that Sean McVay once upon a time called Kevin Clark. He was wearing a smoky jacket and he said, I'm thinking about giving Jared Goff 120 million. What do you think? And Kevin Clark said, that sounds great. I saw him two years ago for 20 minutes.

He looked great. We were in the Superbowl together once and I was impressed how he handled the noise. You should do that. We're doing that too. 300,000 on the Rams. And then, um,

yeah, that's it. Then we'll do the long shot parlay. We're doing two. 25K, Niners-Bengals, plus 1430 odds. So I can't even calculate that, but I'll win almost 300K if that wins. And then Bengals-Washington both have to win plus 825.

And then, just for fun, we're putting 50K in the Niners plus 320 straight up against the Saints. Just for fun. Dabbling. Little Kyle Shanahan. Little belief that there's still some life in that guy yet. I love this.

That is the million dollar picks for week 10. Fortune favors the bold. Kevin Clark, we can see you on Slow News Day on the Ringer Twitter feed. And on YouTube. Ringer NFL show Sunday night. Norm Princeyotti.

And Thursday with a rotating cast and crew. And you cheated on us and you went on Zach Lowe's podcast to talk about the Orlando Magic. I can't believe that was even one of the top 30 topics for him. He's been trying to book me for like eight months and then the pandemic and then like literally we've almost done it five times and today was the day. So we got to talk about Russell Westbrook to the magic, which is the room where we started. Oh, I'm in. I think it's Orlando, Charlotte, or Detroit

for him. I don't think so. If I may drop a nugget, since the pod dropped, I have been reliably informed that I do not think the magic are in a trade war. Ah. Would you want it to?

Yes, absolutely. I mean, what, what is our, what is the Magic's core right now? Like, it's winning one game against the one or two seed every single year. And I just don't know how that progresses, especially with Isaac out for the season. And so I, it would solve a number of the problems. It would certainly create others.

And it certainly wouldn't create an Eastern Conference contender. But I don't think that they're, everyone was like, oh, might mess up the timeline. What timeline? Where are we going? Yeah. So you might not go 35 and 47 this year.

Here's the thing with Russ. I actually think he'll be underrated compared to what offers he's getting in. Because if you just gave him the car keys and you're like, Russ, here are the car keys. Drive the car. He's going to go 27, nine and nine every game. I guarantee that's better than whatever your point card was going to give you next year. Also two days ago is reading like Aaron Gordon for Kelly Oubre rumors. And now I'm reading Aaron Gordon for Russell Westbrook rumors. And it's like, well, I know which side of the equation I'd like to be on.

Do you have to match salaries or do you have enough space to actually absorb him? Well, so Dan Devine's we don't have, we have almost no flexibility. Dan Devine had a fake trade that was Gordon Fultz and James Ennis for Westbrook, which I think is $31 million on our end and then $37 on theirs.

Poor Fultz. That's a tough break for Fultz. Hey, Fultz, stand in the corner for Fultz hey Fultz stand in the corner for James Harden and miss the three pointer for us every once in a while how's that sound I hope you get

Russell Westbrook I hope he goes to one of those these teams I think that would be really fun I want to see Russ on a 35 win team

just going for his own stats that's that's what I want that's and that was Zach's point too he gets to play Russ Ball again

no matter what the destination is. So, you know, just be who you are. All right, Kevin Clark, good to see you. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days

and the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, Claire McNair is here. She writes for the ringer.com about what? 18 months ago. When did we task you with this, this book? Yeah, it all started. It became a book project about, about a year and a half ago. Okay. So ringer books, which we launched in 2018, maybe early 2018. Claire loves jeopardy. It was a running joke. much she loved Jeopardy.

She wrote for Jeopardy a bunch of times for us, a lot of tweets about it. And then when we think of book ideas, it's like, well, what about Claire and Jeopardy? Boom. And now it's out. Answers in the form of questions, the definitive history and insider's guide to Jeopardy. But randomly, we knew Alex Trebek was sick. We knew he was a national treasure. And he passed away a couple of days ago. And you talked to him for this book. He's in it a bunch and he's a big piece of it. But the thing that struck me,

reading all the pieces, reading your piece, reading everybody else, it's rare that you have the celebrity who has the unanimous approval rating, you know, where just kind of everybody liked them. And if you were at a party or I don't know, anywhere on the train and you heard somebody like being like, man, I hate Alex Trebek with a dick or anything, you'd be like, what? Like you'd almost be shocked.

What, what was it about him in your opinion that got him to earn a unanimous approval rating from people? Yeah. So, I mean, the last time I saw him was in January, right before everything went to hell at TCA's, which is this multiple times a year TV critic conference. And it's usually like a very staid crowd. And they had this Je jeopardy panel for the greatest of all time tournament which was on the air at that at that time and the critics just collectively lost it over this guy he was like standing ovation like a media scrum around him and somebody like asked in one of their questions they were like well you know you've never had a

scandal and he fired back like i've still got time. I can do it. But he never did. He never had that scandal. And so I think it's partly that he was a pretty staid person. He was kind of the character he seems like. It also is just the format of Jeopardy. People have watched this for decades. You grew up watching it with your parents. Maybe you watch it with your kids.

It's like this multi-generational touchstone. And so he's just in your living room five nights a week for 36 years. It's the perfectly structured game show we've ever had, where it's got the first level, you get to meet the people, commercial. Second level, a little more stakes, it's getting a little more competitive. All right. Time for the final question. Commercial. And now, you know, it just keeps you all the way through and the categories and no matter who you are, how smart you are, there's always going to be one category. You'll be able to get like three or four of them. Everybody has the one or two friends that can just, you sit next to them, watching Jeopardy. They know the answer to 80, 90% of them. Mine was in college, my buddy,

Jacko, who would just sit there and be like, just shouting out the answers before us. It's not fun, right? It's horrible. No, we were like, shut up. But what's amazing is how they've never really tweaked it at all. I feel like it's the exact same show it was when I was in college when we were watching it. I know it was even on earlier than that. They'll never tweak it, but now they have to tweak the host. It's hard to imagine anyone else stepping into those shoes, which I guess we'll talk about later. But when Alex got the job, because I know you cover this a little bit in your book, how did he get it? How did he keep it? Who was he competing against? How much were you able to find out about that? Yeah. So he had been a broadcaster for the CBC in Canada and had moved to Toronto and joined the national office. And he had started to kind of do variety shows through

that and did actually kind of his first game show sort of, which was this show called Reach for the Top that was like a contest for Canadian high school kids. And that actually spawned like the first parody of Alex Trebek, the SCTV one with eugene lovey so he was really kind of parodied from the very beginning um but he he got to meet alan thick um through that variety show when he was performing on the show and alan thick uh floated him when he was launching a game show in um in los angeles and he auditioned for that, and he got the gig. And it just led to a string of other game shows, most of which were much zanier than Jeopardy.

And he came onto the radar of Merv Griffin when he guest-hosted Wheel of Fortune. And he was kind of an unusual figure. He had a silly Canadian accent. He had a thick mustache. He had a silly Canadian accent. He had a thick mustache. He had big, fluffy hair. He really didn't look like your traditional slick game show host. So it kind of was a weird choice for them to make.

But Merv Griffin was just kind of forever a showman. And he was eager to try out syndication, which had worked really well for Wheel of Fortune and thought that Jeopardy would go well with it. So I'm a child of the 70s. I'm way older than you. Game shows were really important, right? We didn't have reality TV. We didn't have a lot of cable channels. And especially in the mornings, we didn't even have a lot of like the daytime stuff, like, you know, the talk shows and stuff like that.

So it was like Price is Right, Joker's Wild, Tic-Tac-Dough, all these different shows. And the hosts, uh, were really important, right? You had Bob Barker was like the king, but then you had, you know, I think Jim Perry was, was hosting Card Sharks and, um, on and on down the line. It was hard for the game show host to kind of either transcend it or seem like completely indispensable. Like ultimately you feel, you felt like, well, anybody could host that show.

I think what was crazy with Alex and Jeopardy is like, it's impossible to, for me to think of anyone else hosting it. I even remember when they did the Sports Jeopardy spinoff and Dan Patrick was doing it. Dan Patrick's an incredible broadcaster. He's had this awesome career

and you just couldn't separate the Trebek. And it was like, well, you're not Alex Trebek. And that's what I think going forward. I think it's gonna be really hard for them to find somebody else, right? Yeah, you know, and Jeff Probst, right before Survivor, did Rock and Roll Jeopardy. And none of those kind of spinoffs worked.

None of them really caught on. I mean, there were a few seasons, I think, of both those shows. And there was a children's variant as well called Jep. But yeah, they just, even though they were kind of produced by the same people and the same executive producer, they had the Clue crew involved with some of them. It just didn't work. And, you know, I think there is this moment of anxiety

i think there you know it has been going on for a while as as uh you know trebek got into his 70s of just how much of jeopardy success depends on him and i he he was always very humble about it said that you know it was the game it was the show it was the team it was the contestants he was just the host of the show not the star of the show he was was the team. It was the contestants. He was just the host of the show, not the star of the show. He was very specific about how he would be introduced on Jeopardy. But of course, if you watch Jeopardy, he kind of was the star, even if he was not introduced as that. There will be Jeopardy. We will see another host. Of course, it attracts like 10 million viewers a night. But I think you have to find somebody who can project a lot of what Trebek did, but isn't so similar that it invites the comparison more than it inherently will.

So you need somebody who is scholarly, who can inject that humor, who seems like they kind of walk the walk, talk the talk. But of course, you don't want a Trebek clone because there will never be another Trebek, right? So you need somebody who can balance that. And I am so glad that, you know, I don't have to be part of that conversation at Sony right now because that is such a difficult choice, difficult conversation. And of course, they're all in mourning

because he was a person they'd worked with for nearly 40 years. Well, and they also, some people who have cancer, especially a bad cancer, like the one he has, but when they kind of fight it off and hold on, they hit a point, you know, it happens with family members, people have, or just people in your life or whatever, where you kind of think they they're beating it and that they're indestructible. And he was even, what was he hosting three weeks ago? Yeah. He, he was hosting, he hosted his last episode a week and a half before his death. Yeah. I was, I gotta say I was for somebody who was 80 years old with pancreatic cancer. I was actually shocked to find out he died. Cause I felt like, Oh, Alex has this. I don't know what's going on with this dude, but he's got this under control. But

you know, some people have different pain tolerances and whatever. But amazing that he held on for that long. It's wild. So he was diagnosed about a year and a half before his death. And I think he had such a self-deprecating, dark sense of humor. And I think he said pretty upfront when he announced his diagnosis publicly that the odds aren't good. It's stage four pancreatic. There is not a stage five. It is very serious, very bad. And in fact, he knows that very personally because the original host of Jeopardy! Art Fleming also died of pancreatic cancer. And I think he passed just a couple of weeks after his diagnosis. So yeah, it was amazing. And I was taken aback by how much it felt like a shock

on Sunday because you're right. We knew he was very, very ill, but it still felt like, no, no, no, no, no. You've got it. Johnny Gilbert's 96. So we've got at least decades more with Trebek. So it really just feels like this got punch. You know, you're talking about other formats and what's worked and not worked. I got to say Sports Jeopardy, I felt like should have worked better than it did. And I'm not, I put this way when it was on, I always found myself watching because especially when there's so many freak sports fans out there and they're always think they're going to know more about sports than anyone. I don't think they should have given that one up yet. Going backwards with your book. So you throw yourself into this. You open the door to hear from all these Jeopardy people

who have been on the show or had family members on the show and stuff like that. What was the biggest surprise for you in the year plus of reporting? I think, oh man, that's tough. I, I spent, I did some silly things in the, in the reporting of this. Like I knew I wanted the, um, the scene at the hotel around the contestants. They put all the contestants, actually, I'm sorry. They do not put up the contestants. Contestants pay their own way to Jeopardy unless you're coming back for a reunion tournament. So you're, you're, you know, buying your own plane ticket, putting yourself in a hotel, but they have a discounted rate at a couple of not particularly

nice hotels near the Culver City lot. And I knew that I wanted to write about that scene because there's just this crazy thing that happens on tape day mornings where they all gather in the lobby and they're so nervous. And this is just a thing that they've wanted for years and years and years, perhaps their entire lives. And they just wait for this shuttle bus to take them to Jeopardy. And so I woke up at like 530 in the morning in this hotel and like stepped down to the lobby and was just like spying on these people, like flipping through all the maps. It's a crazy scene. I heard from some that it can get a little bit rowdy that night when they finally make it back. It's like they've been through the war together.

And I unfortunately did not witness that. Everybody was very calm. Yeah. We had one of my college friends, Kara McDermott, made Jeopardy in the mid nineties. I don't remember what year. And she's now married to my college roommate, Horx.

But it was a big deal for us, right? We had watched Jeopardy and she was like, you know, we're all in the Boston area. It's like married to my college roommate, Horace. But it was a big deal for us, right? We'd watch Jeopardy and she's like, you know, we're all in the Boston area. It's like, oh my God, she made Jeopardy? And she couldn't tell us how she did. Yeah. So had this whole, you know, they had some bar situation.

So a bunch of us were there and we're just watching it live and she's not saying how she did. And then she won and we went nuts. It was like the Red Sox, you know, winning the ALCS or something. And then I think she won a second one. And then the third time she missed one that she should have gotten. And we were just like, how did you not get that one?

And she's like, hey, it's hard up there. There's a lot of pressure. You don't understand. But it was so cool to know somebody who was in that. But it seems like everybody has one person in their life who's kind of gone into the gauntlet, right? And done it? Yeah, I mean, it's just,

it's a show that's been around for so long, right? That just the sheer numbers of it, they have like 430, I think, contestants a year. So yeah, so with watch parties though, that is so much part of the culture. And I just wrote an article for the ringer about that, but I, for part of the reporting of this went to, um, James Holzhauer's watch party during the greatest of all time tournament. He held this great event in Las Vegas for charity and, you know, invited people to come and to like this big theater with his name up on the marquee. And he watched in the audience with

his wife. And I was sitting with these diehard Vegas Jeopardy fans who were just staring at James Holthauer's back the whole time, trying to judge his body language. It doesn't mean he wins. People get so into it. Who do people think the GOAT is? And who do you think the GOAT is right now? Because I know there's different arguments about this. And they've even tried to prove it in tournaments and stuff. Absolutely. Ken Jennings has said a lot about how he thinks that his skills have fallen off. That he thinks, you know, Jeopardy is a young man's game.

And to some degree, that's true because there is this inherent buzzer timing that is such a part of it. But seeing him go head to head with James, really what those games came down to was who happened to find the Daily Devil. And it was so much luck. They are so evenly matched. And so despite the fact that Ken had a pretty authoritative win in that tournament, I don't know. I mean. Ken also made the point that James forced him and Brad as well to just start playing James's strategy. And so I so hope we see more of James Holzhauer. And I think fortunately, the odds of that are really good. How old is he now? He's 34, I want to say. I might be off for a couple of years. My take on this is I think you

peak with this stuff late twenties, early thirties. Yeah. A lot of junkie contestants say this. Yeah. Cause I just know, like I could have gone on any sort of sports show when I was like 20, 29, 30 and hung. Now I would be a disaster. I can't remember anything, but that coming at like that eight years after college, eight, nine years. And especially if you're a true drunkie with all this stuff and you're soaking everything in, but that stuff isn't being pushed out as you're building all these new memories from age 33 to 50. If you have kids, if you get married, uh, work, all this stuff, plus your brain cells start dying off. And I just feel like that's the peak. It's almost like athletes

where you're going to remember the most, your brain's going to be the freshest. And also, honestly, like being close to high school and college where you learn a lot of the stuff that you need for Jeopardy. Those are things you're not going to learn when you're like 50, you know?

Right, right. Yeah, I think you're totally right. That, you know, memory is a thing that, that does gradually get worse. You know, I'd like to think that now that I'm in my thirties, I'm not like, yeah, we'll see. We'll see. Give me another five. You're fine for now. But, but I think Japanese contestants talk about a lot is just the kind of pop culture exposure. Like you just you you know more of just the stuff that's going on when you're younger. You're just kind of exposed to more of it. And that is a thing that contestants who come back for reunion tournaments really, really struggle with and try to brush up on.

But like you're just you're just kind of missing it. You're just a little bit out of the loop. And of course, the Jeopardy writers are not college students, but they have been very effective at kind of keeping track of pop culture and throwing new stuff into the greater Jeopardy canon. Any PD scandals or anything with Jeopardy? Any Adderall overuse? They're not testing. Not the HGH?

Yeah. It's the next big scandal for Jeopardy. No, I mean, I've definitely talked to unnamed contestants who have experimented with like beta blockers

before going on game shows like Jeopardy and then of course have that kind of not work out for them because, you know, if you're not used to it then you're just freaked out

about one more thing and, you know, your pulse is doing whatever. Um, yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. So I, you'd have to, you'd have to test that out for like two weeks beforehand to, yeah. Yeah. You would want to be calm and totally aware and quick, but you wouldn't want to test that out. Right. Jeopardy. Like you would want to know what that feels like. Exactly. So, I mean, one of the great things I got to do for the book was I was able to talk to a lot of the celebrity Jeopardy contestants. And I talked to Andy Richter, who has done very, very, very well on celebrity Jeopardy. And he made the point that he was just so used to being on TV. He was so used to being on that stage. And it was just like, of course, not nervous about

that part of it at all. And I don't really know how if you are not a person who works in TV, not a comedian, you really get those reps. But yeah, so much of what is going on with somebody maybe not doing well is just like the sheer terror of suddenly being on the Jeopardy stage. And of course, you know, meeting Alex Trebek is like such a shocking thing for people who've watched him on TV their whole lives. That was the big takeaway from my friend Cara when she did it, which was, it would be fine if you were in your living room, but when you're actually there and your nerves are going and there's an audience and there's Alex is right there and the lights are on and the director's like, three, two, one.

That's, you know, and you have to block all that out. It's almost like playing a sport or something. Just for the record, who is the best celebrity Jeopardy person of all time? It's not Andy Richter, is it? I think it's Andy Richter has the highest one day, like single game total ever. And that was from that game where he just totally shellacked Wolf Blitzer, which he talked to me a little bit about just that it was awful. He was like, it was so, it was just like not fun to be a part of that game. And Wolf Blitzer kind of scurried

out and it was just like, he felt really bad about it afterwards. And then of course it became like a meme. So, um, but I, Michael McKeon, who I was also able to talk to has, has won the most. He won this like million dollar tournament that was sort of the tournament of champions for celebrity contestants. So, um, he's, he's a Jeopardy nut. I mean, he, he, and you know, in addition to being really good at Jeopardy, like watches it religiously, he watches it every night at seven o'clock with his wife. They play along. They, you know, they count down to final Jeopardy. They take it really seriously so it was it was fascinating to talk to somebody like that who watches the show that way he's

another canadian isn't he no i don't know i'm not sure you know no no that is right that is right freaking canadians yeah yeah he was telling me about he he has um an unusual thumb based on a thumb injury that he had when i think he was in drama school and that was definitely in canada so um he's not sure if it has helped with his buzzer but um it certainly hasn't hurt what was the biggest controversy in the history of jeopardy my you know it's not a very controversial show there have not been a lot of controversies on it my my favorite though is, you know, like the cardinal rule of Jeopardy is once you go on, you can never go back. And so there was this guy whose name I'm blanking on in this moment, but he went on in the early 2000s, I want to say, and he came in, I think, third place and, you know, it was, you know, all right, whatever. That's great. He made it to

Jeopardy. That's very impressive. And then almost exactly a decade later, he came back and he did it again. And he was even wearing the same tie and he, you know, played still under his same name. And he just had a slightly different description of his job as a, as a teacher in Southern California, I think. Um, but the show didn't realize it. And, and it wasn't until it hit the airwaves that, that they, um, they realized that he had kind of done this. But he lost once again. Oh, that's even worse. Yeah. And the funniest thing is he sat for interviews, as a lot of contestants do, with his local newspaper,

talking about how exciting it was to finally make it to the Jeopardy! stage and put on makeup for the first time. But he had done it 10 years earlier as well. Wow. Yeah. That's kind of creepy. As far as Jeopardy goes. I tried very hard to track him down because I just really wanted to interview him, but I was not able to find him. So he is one of my great heartbreaks with the book. What did Will Ferrell's famous Trebek impersonation on SNL and all those, and Trebek finally ended up going on. But do you feel like that even weirdly vaulted the show to a different level? Because that, I mean, at the time, SNL was really having a resurgence and Celebrity Jeopardy was like the

go-to sketch for, I think, two years for Will Ferrell. But what kind of impact did that have? Yeah. I mean, I think that it's huge. It's absolutely huge. It just made it such a pop culture thing again. And I think it kicked off so many of those other cameos on other shows as well where Trebek would actually go on. It was a huge thing in the 90s. Like everybody had their Trebek episode. Um, it, you know, it, it is like the, the favorite joke of people talking about Jeopardy is, you know, suck it Trebek or, you know, some version of, of one of those lines from,

from the sketches and, and in the Jeopardy studio, they would play clips from Saturday night live as they were kind of like welcoming contestants. So they were very happy with it. Let's say. Yeah. Sean Connery and, um, Burt Reynolds were the two funniest ones because Norm Macdonald was Burt Reynolds. He was just like chewing his gum. But I always thought they did a really good job with this. All right. So the book is out. You can buy it now. You can

buy it anywhere you get books, which I think for about 99% of the people right now is online. But how's the response been so far? I mean, it's been great. And it has been a delight to hear from contestants who think that I conveyed the experience correctly. It is a scary thing to write a book for nerds, let's say. PDs would be maybe the less charitable term because I am going to hear about the small mistakes. And I have not yet started to get the hate mail about, you know, saying podium instead of lectern, but I know that it's coming. All right. Well, be prepared. Congrats on the book.

I'm really psyched that this all worked out and I can't wait to see the reaction. Thanks for coming on. Yeah. Thanks for having me. All right. That's it for the BS podcast. If you missed the Book of Basketball Podcast, Alan Iverson, go check out that episode over the weekend. We will see you on Sunday night with the Cubs. Looking forward to it. I don't have feelings within on the wayside

I'm a person I never was and I don't have feelings