The Bill Simmons Podcast - Westbrook Vs. Harden, Belichick’s Next Move, the Kelce-Swift Distraction, and Million-Dollar Picks | with Peter Schrager

Episode Date: October 6, 2023

The Ringer's Bill Simmons runs through the Venn diagram of James Harden and Russell Westbrook after the new Clippers trade rumors (2:28). Then, Bill is joined by Peter Schrager of NFL Network and Fox Sports to discuss the disappointing Giants, the slow-start Bengals, the new-low Patriots, MVP McCaffrey, the surprisingly exciting Texans, and more (20:38). Finally, Bill runs through his Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 6 (1:16:24). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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responsible gaming. Please visit RG dash help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select States gambling problem called winning a hundred gambler or visit RG dash help.com. We're also brought to you by the ringinger Podcast Network, where I put up a new Rewatchables on Monday. We did Toy Soldiers, me and Kyle Brandt. So much fun. We already taped next week's episode. We did it at the New Beverly Theater in Los Angeles, me and Sean Fennessy and Chris Ryan. We recorded They Live, 35th anniversary of the John Carpenter classic, which has aged absolutely spectacularly. Roddy Piper, some are saying it's his greatest movie.

Some are saying it's the only movie they ever remember him making. But this is an awesome movie. We had a lot of fun. Thanks to everybody who came out for that. Hope you're checking out theringer.com where we have some really good pieces right now. Actually,

Katie Baker wrote about the SPF trial. She's the best when it gets into like the high finance, like just trying to explain it to normal people like me. We have a piece about the exorcist. We talked about how weird the morning show is a show that we've now banned from the prestige TV podcast. I'm sorry. We don't have more prestige TV shows,

but there are no prestige TV podcast. I'm sorry we don't have more Prestige TV shows, but there are no Prestige TV shows. You can listen. Most of the best shows right now are in the nerd culture world, which is, thank God, we have the Ringerverse. And Syrit Sohai wrote about James Harden and Daryl Morey. I'm going to be talking about Harden and Westbrook in one second.

Also, a little bit later, a little game of Do You Believe with our old friend Peter Schrager. And last but not least, the return of Million Dollar Pick. Sorry I didn't have a podcast on Tuesday. I'm actually on the East Coast. The Swedes are holding me hostage doing Spotify stuff. So I've been on the East Coast all week and it's been super nice.

I get to go to Boston tonight and see my lovely daughter. Can't wait for that. And I would always come back to the East Coast if it was like in the 70s and 80s like this. This is wonderful. Congratulations, East Coast. You finally pulled it off. All right, let's get to the podcast.

Let's bring in our friends from Pearl Jib. All right. I wanted to talk about James Harden and Russell Westbrook, two guys who grew up together in Oklahoma City. Westbrook was the 08 draft and Harden was the 09 draft. They played on that Thunder team that made the finals in 2012. Harden got famously traded right after that. It's not a rivalry. It's not a feud.

And yet they've been linked together for the last 15 years in the strangest possible ways. Now they're about to be linked together again. It seems like the Clippers are going to be the salvation trade for the Sixers. The Athletic had all these reports today about they almost traded for them this summer. They actually offered an unprotected first, which I hadn't heard before, and it just seems like maybe that's eventually where Harden goes. What's interesting is Westbrook is already there. And you could argue that Westbrook makes more sense for the Clippers than Harden does.

But then this goes back to the whole Westbrook versus Harden thing. You know, there's different kinds of players that get linked. So you have like the eternal players where it's Russell and Wilt. They're just linked together. They're always going to be together. Bird and Magic, Shaq and Kobe, Elgin and Jerry, Wade and LeBron, right? Those guys, they just kind of go hand in hand. You get a specific era or it's a rivalry or they're teammates, whatever it is. Then there's the ones that always get thrown together because they get compared to each other the whole career. I feel like Duncan and Dirk were like this. Isaiah and Magic, even though Magic was the one that won the war for years and years, that was a real argument.

Who would you rather have? KD and LeBron got there in the mid-2010s for a few years. Malone and Barkley is my favorite. I did a whole, when I wrote my basketball book, I did a was an eventual winner. So like Hakeem and Robinson, those guys got compared to each other a lot, and then Hakeem just ascended over him. Same for Larry Bird and Dr. J. I feel like Jerry West got the best of Oscar Robertson eventually. We saw it this year with Jokic and Embiid. Curry and Chris Paul,

there was a stretch there where it was like, oh, Chris Paul, he's the alpha, and then Curry just passed him. Harden and Russ, I don't know really who had the upper hand on who. I had, when I did my pyramid, I did another pass at it this summer. And I had Westbrook as the 63rd best player of all time. I had Harden as the 43rd best player of all time. So Harden wins in the pyramid.

And Harden, I think, had a higher end career. He had six first teams, one second team, one third team. He won an MVP, six top five finishes. Westbrook also won an MVP, two first teams, five second teams. So Harden, slightly better career. Then you go into the stats and it gets a little closer. Russell is basically a 22, 7, and 8 guy. 44% shooting, not as good three-point shooting as Harden.

15 seasons, almost 1,100 games. But in the playoffs, stats go up. He played 116 playoff games so far. 25, 7, and 8. 41% shooting. His playoff resume made the 2012 finals. He was the second best player. 2011 Western Finals, 2014 and 16 Western Finals.

He won two points per game scoring titles and then three assist titles. And most famously, brought the triple double back. He averaged a triple double for four straight seasons. As you know, I don't care about triple doubles, but it was cool. Nobody had done it since Oscar. Harden, 25, seven and six for his career. Better statistically, 44, 36, 83 percentages, 14 seasons, a thousand games. Both of them are super durable. In the playoffs, it drops. He's down to 23, 5, and 6. The field goal percentage is down to 42%. And then from an MVP standpoint, six top five finishes. Playoff resume is about the same.

They both made the 2012 finals and the 2011 Western Conference finals.. Harden, as the best player, made the Western Finals in 15 and 18. You could argue in 18, he came closer to winning a title than he had at any other point in his career other than the 2012 Finals. You could say the same for Westbrook. If Klay Thompson doesn't get hot in the 2016 Western Finals, maybe they beat Cleveland in the Finals. So both of them have a little what if thing. And then his version of the triple double seasons, he had that crazy run. He averaged 36.1 points a game for an entire season, which was the highest in Spankle Jura. And then he also had the 34.3. So it's weird. They're closer than I thought. And then you go like, all right, what characteristics do they have in common? Well, they both started with OKC, both super durable, both high usage guys for better and

worse. They always succeeded the most when the ball revolved around them the most. Wasn't necessarily great for the team. And they always had to find players to put around them that made them succeed sometimes at the expense of the team. The stats are pretty similar as we just covered. They both played for four teams. Westbrook's on five.

Harden's about to be on five. They're both 34 years old. They're both super polarizing. I think these are probably, other than Dwight Howard, the two of the three most polarizing guys of the last 20 years. And there's been a lot of arguments and a lot of debates about, could you actually win a title if this was your best guy or your second best guy? And I remember I wrote a column about Westbrook back in 2012 during the finals called That Boy Competed. And it was about how great Westbrook

was despite this obvious flaw that he had, that he was just kind of out of control sometimes. And sometimes at the worst possible times, like in the finals game after I wrote that column. And that was when I came up with the idea of the 90-10 guy, the guy who's 90% perfect, but there's that 10% that drives you crazy. And with some guys, it stands out more than others. And with Westbrook, his 10% was the most glaring, flashing horns 10% you've ever seen in your life. And that's what we used to argue about with him. Both of them were really disappointing in the playoffs.

Let's be honest. If you talk about what are the great Westbrook playoff moments, you'd have some trouble, especially after Durant left. Really, nothing happened with him in the playoffs. 2016, he wasn't great. 2014, he really laid it to Chris Paul in the Quipper series. That was probably his personal highlight for that. Then Harden, Zach Lowe called him the Carl Malone of the playoffs or the Carl Malone of guards. Zach Lowe said that on my Book of basketball podcasts, I think four years ago. And it was like two terrible Harden playoff performances ago.

He goes down as this century's worst postseason performer. Rosillo was on my podcast Sunday and said he should be in the quitter hall of fame. So that's where we stand on Harden. They both won MVPs. They're both really flawed in the sense of you're a superstar. You shouldn't have flaws that are as glaring as the flaws that these guys have. Harden's case, doesn't play defense, disappears at the worst possible times. Westbrook, it's the 10% thing that we mentioned. The same thing that makes Westbrook great is also

the thing that terrifies you the most in a big game because he thinks he's the best player in the world at all times. So with 50 seconds left, all of a sudden he's taking a three or driving basket. This is why he didn't work with the Lakers. They also have like an extra skill beyond what you think their skill is. Like Harden is a phenomenal passer when he wants to be. Westbrook is one of the best rebounding guards of all time. He really is. He's a phenomenal rebounder. And it was something the Clippers tapped into in the playoffs last year. He's in his mid thirties and he still had that quality. Both of them weirdly belong to a city. I still feel like Oklahoma City loves Russ.

I still feel like Houston loves Harden, even if the Rockets organization didn't want them to come back. They both broke up with KD and they're both one of a kind. I've never seen a player like either of them. I have never seen anyone like Westbrook. There was a moment when it was like him and Derrick Rose, they were aligned just as these uber athletic kind of mini LeBron point guards. And we just didn't see anybody before with speed athleticism like that. And Rose immediately broke down Westbrook still going, uh, is starting for the Clippers. So, you know, you think about like the, the, the big, big, big flaws that I mentioned earlier, like Russ was the ball dominance and the usage rate stuff.

He's the second highest usage rate guy of all time. Like literally of all time. He's number two of anyone who's ever played basketball. He has the highest usage rate stuff. He's the second highest usage rate guy of all time. Like literally of all time. He's number two of anyone who's ever played basketball. He has the highest usage rate. Statistically, like the field goal percentage, there's a bunch of ways to ding him. True shooting percentage, ton of turnovers and the end of game stuff isn't great.

Harden's a little different. Like he quit on three teams. This is the new record. I mean, he's like DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak. We're never going to see this again. The defense we mentioned, the high usage, very similar to Westbrook. He's 11th all-time. Westbrook's second. Westbrook is, I think, 32% usage rate, and Harden was at 30. And the playoff flameouts, those are what they are. But you think back to 2009, they're both on the same team. And Harden at that point looks like

he has a chance to be OKC's Ginobili. That seems like the best case scenario. Those three years belong to Russ all the way through the 2012 finals. And if you're going like advantage Harden, advantage Russ back and forth, who's winning. Russ wins those first four years, but he was a year older. Harden gets traded to OKC. Harden basically takes over at least for 2013 and 2014 and probably 2015 from Russ. And that was when Harden brought Houston to the 2015 Western Finals, although they should have lost to the Clippers and they yanked him

and he put the towel over his head and it was maybe not even a top three James Harden quitting performance, but Corey Brewer and Josh Smith saved his ass, Trevor Ariza. Then advantage back to Russ for the 2015-16 season and then the next season when he wins the MVP.

Then it swings back to Harden, and Harden puts together two awesome years, culminating in where you could argue if Chris Paul doesn't get hurt against the Warriors, maybe they win the title that year. I don't know. It still remains to be seen whether you can win four straight playoff rounds with that

ball-dominant Luka Harden type of style. I'll believe it when I see it. Then they play together in 2019-20, that season, which turned out to be the bubble season. But there was a really fun stretch there where they just basically dumped the center position, spread the floor, and just attacked the basket with Harden and Westbrook. So I'm giving them a draw because that was really fun. Then all of a sudden in the playoffs, it fell apart. 20 to 22, probably Harden because Westbrook's career starts going sideways. And that goes until last season, which at that point, Harden was playing really well for Philly.

Westbrook's career looked like it was over on the Lakers. You know, he's a complete pariah. We write him off. LeBron throws him under the bus. LeBron was the one that traded for him, and then LeBron was the one trying to trade him. Russ took it very personally, as he probably should have, and has the unhappiest four or five months there. And it really seems like his career is going to be over. Then finds the fountain youth

with the Clippers. And now he has the advantage again in this bizarre, it's not a rivalry. It's not a feud. It's just these two cars driving next to each other on the highway. But Russ is in the driver's seat. He's the one that's on the Clippers. He was smart enough to take less money to be in a good situation. Harden was the one who opted in to the $35 million and then said, I'm unhappy. I'm never reported in this organization. You opted in, buddy. But now he wants to get traded to the Clippers. And the way this might play out is either they're going to play together on their third team in the past, in the, in the last, I guess, 12 years, dating back to 2012, there would be three different cities together, which is crazy. Or Westbrook's going to be the reason that

they don't trade for Harden. And if you, you know, if you're going to talk about who has the advantage, again, I had Harden higher in the pyramid, but Russ, other than his Lakers situation, even then, a lot of the quotes from the Lakers were what an awesome teammate he was, even though he's in the worst situation ever. oh man, James, wow, love playing with that guy. It's a little more silent on that front. The Westbrook thing, like there was a whole story how he bought all these iPhones for the Clippers and he's been the leader of the team and he's been organized. They need a leader because Kawhi doesn't talk. But he's really embraced, even though he's on this $3.8 million contract. He's about to hit 35 years old. Looks like his career, this might be the last chance for him. But he's kind of embraced it.

And he's one of those guys that he's such an incredible athlete. It maybe won't be surprising if he plays three, four more years. I don't know if you can win two playoff rounds with him. But him looking mostly like him seems realistic. Harden, on the other hand, looks like if it doesn't work out with the Clippers, I don't know what happens to him. So if you're comparing these two guys since 2009,

and you said Westbrook's still going to be in the league playing for a team and Harden isn't. I think the odds even like three years ago would have been plus 700 on FanDuel. And instead, Westbrook inexplicably is kind of in the driver's seat. So what happens now? Do the Clippers trade for Harden? And if they trade for Harden, can these guys coexist again? Because we watched it in the 2018-20 season.

They flamed out in the playoffs. Then Harden, that was when he got super unhappy. Was Russ a piece of that? I don't know. Are they still friends? I don't know. They don't really make sense together as basketball players because of the usage rate thing. In general, I would run from James Harden. That's it. If you've quit on three teams, I don't care how talented you are. I want no part of you. But if you're the Clippers and you have this new arena next year, you're just throwing shit against the wall and you don't care about your 2029 unprotected pick. And maybe you don't even care if you give up Norman Powell. You want to be interesting. You don't want to be irrelevant. The one thing you can't be with one year left on your old stadium before you

move into this palace that you just built at Inglewood is to be irrelevant. So that's why they're going to end up probably trading for James Harden, which I didn't even think was conceivable until this week. And then we're back with this weird Westbrook Harden situation. Are they rivals? Are they frenemies? What are they? I have no fucking clue, but I think Harden had a slightly better career. And yet if I could have one guy over the course of 15 years and you gave me 15 years of James Harden

or 15 years of Russell Westbrook, I know, I know it makes more sense to take Harden and I know his ceiling was slightly higher, but I think I'd take Westbrook. And again, I had Harden 43rd in the pyramid and I had Westbrook 63rd. But Westbrook always gave a shit. And whether it was misguided, whether he held himself in too high of an esteem, whether he was enabled with bad habits. I don't know. But I always felt like if you're just going to say like, who do you trust more over a 15 year span to just give a shit? I would say Westbrook. So it'd be ironic if the Clippers decided not to trade for James Harden because they have Russell Westbrook. And I think that would be maybe the final win

in whatever the hell you call this, this frenemy, rivalry, team 80, whatever it is. Westbrook and Harden, there's been no parallel combination like this in the history of the league. I'm just telling you. I wrote the book of basketball. I should know.

All right, we're going to take a break and we're going to come back with Peter Schrager. Step in action this NFL season with FanDuel, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed. When you place a $5 bet, that is $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose. We have a bunch of my favorite bets coming up in million dollar picks later in this podcast. Let's just say there's a bunch of my favorite bets coming up in million-dollar picks later in this podcast. Let's just say there's a couple of road favorites. We'll see if we can jump back on the horse. If you've been thinking about joining FanDuel, there's no better time to get in the action than right now. Easy to use app, wide range of betting options, including spreads, player pops, overrunners, teasers, a lot more. Plus FanDuel now live in Kentucky. Download the app and take advantage of their

great special offers, boosts, and more. Visit FanDuel.com slash BS. That's my initials to kick off the NFL season. FanDuel, official partner of the NFL. You must be 21 plus and president in select states. First online real money wager, only $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey, and it's on

prime all season long. Watch prime Monday night hockey deliver unreal plays. The biggest goals can't miss moments. Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL's best. They're all on prime prime Monday night hockey. It's on Monday. It's on prime. All right. Our old friend Peter Schrager is here. I'm on his home turf in New York City. Somehow we're not together. That's my fault, not his. Both of our favorite football teams are pretty much already dead. I don't know who's in worse shape, the Pats or the Giants.

We're going to get to that. I'm going to play a little game with you called Do You Believe? And you can throw a cup at me, too. You don't even know what's on my list. All right. Do you believe dot, dot, dot. And then you have to tell me if you believe or you don't believe it.

So number one, do you believe the Giants are this bad? I do not believe the Giants are this bad. I am shocked the Giants are this bad. I am befuddled at how it got so bad. You've been in New York a couple of days. The back page of the New York Post every single day has been a different pun

related to how bad the Giants are. Yesterday was Strife of Brian, a really relevant, timely Monty Python pun about Brian Dable throwing a tablet at his quarterback. And then today, Evan Neal, the second year first round pick, goes and says the most absurd thing to say in New York. He does the quote about a lion doesn't listen to the opinion of sheep

and then says, the guy in the crowd booing us, what's he do for his life? He flips burgers or hot dogs, which is the last thing you can say. Don't we have like 60 years of evidence that you just shouldn't attack blue-collar fans? The New York sports radio guys. They've been through some changes of late on

WFAN and ESPN radio. They finally got there. Don McGregor on ESPN radio went absolutely bonkers. Every fan is like, this is what they needed. Everyone's collective. In all honesty, Bill, got there. Don McGregor on ESPN radio went absolutely bonkers. Every fan is like, yeah! This is what they needed. Everyone's collective. But in all honesty, Bill,

two home games, both on national TV. They've been outscored 64-3. The first half stuff is crazy. Now, I know Dayball was a big second half adjustments guy last year. But the first half incompetence is almost unprecedented.

I mean, they're not great on offense. They've had some injuries. Their left tackle's been in and out, but it shouldn't be this bad. You look at the schedule. Dallas, I get it. Sunday night, Dallas is fired up. Who knew their defense was that good?

They barely beat Arizona, but it turns out Arizona, you know, they're frisky. It's not as bad as a week two. They get slaughtered by San Francisco. Again, not bad. But the Monday night one where they only put up three points against Seattle, a team that nobody even knew if their defense was half decent, much less, you know, good. And they just got their asses kicked in that game.

And then the bigger thing to me, Schrager, is that Danny Dimes with the pick six. Solak was talking about this on the Sheil and Solak on Ringer NFL on Monday about how stupid it was to not franchise tag him, which I felt like at the time, and I know you get worried he's going to hold out, but why didn't they franchise tag him? What's your intel on that? Yeah. So they didn't want to pay him last offseason. They didn't pick up his fifth year option. He goes through this lengthy negotiation that drags on right through the combine. And everyone's in India like, is it going to happen?

Is it going to happen? And it doesn't happen. A week before the deadline for free agency, he fires his agents. Fires all his agents at CAA who have been with him since the start. And I don't think it necessarily is a reflection of the player.

This is more of a big business decision. Hires athletes one, or athletes first. Gets in the room and they hammer out a deal. And it's one of these feelings where it's like, were the Giants in a corner on this one? Did they ever want to pay? If he's firing his original agents because he couldn't get the money he wanted from the Giants,

has to hire new agents, then money is not going to blow out of the water what they were offering anyway. But to get to that point where this is a franchise quarterback and you didn't want to do it last year, you didn't want to do it during the season You didn't want to do it during the season. The guy's going to fire his representation because he'd expected more.

And then you finally do it. And everyone who reported the deal, of course, as you know, when these numbers are reported, it's, oh my God. And then you do a little deeper dive. It's essentially a two-year deal. They can get out of this thing after two years. But these two years are an albatross on the salary cap if this guy isn't the franchise quarterback. And it sets them

back in a lot of ways. Why didn't they franchise tag them? Because they figured, okay, this guy went and won a road playoff game last year. It's easy for Solak and a lot of us in the media to go, well, wait a second. In hindsight, he never was the guy. He was the guy last year. And he fit Brian Dable's

offense very well last year. I heard someone talking about that. I guess I don't understand the franchise tag because it's such leverage for the team and such non- leverage for the player that even like Baltimore with Lamar, who's way better

than Daniel Jones, but the franchise tag becomes a thing, right? And the only time you don't want to use it if it's with somebody like Mahomes or Burr or people like that. When you're talking about somebody that we don't know if he's the 11th best quarterback in the league or the 19th best quarterback in the league, whatever, I'd like to see one more year so I have a better idea. Did we just play a soft schedule last year?

Was that a fluke? Can he repeat it? Then I'm ready to give him multi-years. It just felt like they panicked. I also think there's a psychological lift of, you're our guy. We're not going to franchise tag you. We feel comfortable. The alternatives were what? They didn't have a top 10 pick, so they weren't getting Stroud. They weren't getting Young. They weren't going to get Richardson. So now you're talking about maybe Will Levis slips to us. Okay, well then, if that's the case,

maybe we just bite the bullet this season. Let Daniel Jones walk. He signed somewhere. And then we sign a Jacoby Brissett or a Tyrod Taylor or we go with Tyrod Taylor, whatever it is. And how do you look at your fan base after they just went, they were one of the top eight teams in the league. So you're saying there was like a little bit of risk that eventually it works out badly

if he was actually as good as... Yeah, what if he's 26 years old and you let him walk out the building? Two-year flyer, but now the Giants fans are apoplectic about it. Dude, their best drive of the season was their first drive of the season. And they got the field goal kicked

and it felt like the entire life of the Giants, almost like in Ghostbusters, just got sucked out of them. They haven't been the same team since. They went right down the field on Dallas. I can't imagine it gets much better the next two weeks. They play the Dolphins at 1 o'clock in the heat

this week. And then they go Sunday night to the Bills and it's like... Right. It'd be 1-5 after that and the one win was like barely, barely a win. I thought their defense was going to be better. I thought their pass rush was going to be a lot more potent. And I felt like all the stuff we saw last year was going to grow.

I had them over seven and a half wins. I thought they could get to nine and potentially be a seven seed in the NFC. Who knows? Eight and nine might be an NFC team, but I don't get that at all. Darren Waller. I do the NFL Network show, Good Morning Football. We had so many- Oh, he's a fantasy sleeper all over the place.

Oh, and the fantasy stuff, I get exasperated with it sometimes because what- Okay, fantasy expert XYZ comes on and tells me that Darren Waller's going to have 120 catches and have 1,200 yards. Well, why? Why do you think that? Did you talk to him? Cause I think the giants were excited about Darren Waller, but we put this expectation there.

Darren Waller has been invisible. Paris Campbell was a big free agent signing. He hasn't done much. And then, yeah, that one, I would have guessed. And then you start going through it and you're like,

well, Jalen Hyatt fell to the third round. Everyone expected him to be, you know, he's going to be there. The deep threat. Well, he was a third round pick.

Like, we'll see what happens. And then Barkley gets hurt right away. It's hurt and Thomas gets hurt. It sounds like you haven't closed the door on them though, just because of Dable or something else. Yeah, they're really well coached. This team went to the playoffs last year. They won a lot of close games. It's not like there's some inexperienced raw bunch of rookies.

Like, they've got the guys in there that have won. It's falling apart at the seams. I have to imagine Dable can at least save the second half of the season. That's how I would look at it. But it's probably going to get worse before it gets better in the next two weeks. Well, to me, they're one of the fork in the road teams this week. Because now we have four weeks of evidence. You can really study a lot of the data.

And it's not a small sample size anymore. If they get killed by Miami this week, that's a wrap. We're done. That's just not going to happen for them. Do you know, I mean, Seattle I watched the game the week before. I know everyone else was watching Taylor Swift. That game was a blowout. I put over

Seahawks Carolina because I was intrigued. Andy Dalton went up and down the field on that Seahawks defense. The Seahawks Carolina because I was intrigued. Andy Dalton went up and down the field on that Seahawks defense. The Seahawks defense with the Giants having 11 days to prepare. So they played on Thursday night and Monday night without a bye. That's the biggest gap in between games. I mean, you have to prepare

for one team, one defense. Giants put up three points and had a pick six. And the Seahawks defense, although they're young and can be, they're not the 78 Steelers. They're not the 85 Bears. So if that's the case, I don't know where we go from there. Yeah. Indy Dalton in that game, he threw for 361 yards and they had 23 first downs, 17 passing. I felt this some way because I was going to take Seattle for a million dollar picks last week. And that game scared me so much that I backed off. And then by Monday, I'm like,

you know what? Fuck it. I'm bidding Seattle. Uh, another, do you believe that ties into the fork in the road thing? Do you believe Cincinnati is done this season? Hmm.

Okay. So the answer is again, Mr. Pollyanna here, not done, but they're the boxer on the ropes right now. Um, the AFC and they've been, and they've been down twice and it's like a 10, seven they're the boxer on the ropes right now. The AFC North... And they've been

down twice and it's like a 10-7 round and they might be just... Staggering. The AFC North, there isn't that runaway 4-0 team right now. I know the Ravens are 3-1 and have looked good, but they're still a work in progress in a lot of ways too. Joe Burrow re-injured it a little

bit against the Rams. He was immobile against the Rams and they found a way to win they found a way to win because the Rams left tackle got hurt and all of a sudden their defense showed up for an hour and then this past week I've told anyone and everyone on Good Morning Football I'm like Jeffrey Simmons and that Tennessee defensive line will eat Burrow alive

this week and that was a very in vogue pick to take the Titans to beat the Bengals I didn't realize it would be 27-3 Burrow alive this week. And that was a very in vogue pick to take the Titans to beat the Bengals. I didn't realize it would be 27-3. Burrow apparently had a really good week of practice. They had a couple come-to-Jesus moments this week, I'm told. This is the game.

This is the week where we've got to figure it out. If Cincinnati falls behind and they're suddenly 1-4 and the Ravens are 4-1, that's a big gap. And of course, the Ravens would have the advantage over them. So they're in Arizona and they're three-point favorites. And they're three-point favorites despite the fact that Arizona has played much better than them this year.

Not better, much better. Since they scored 49 points all season, they're 30th in first downs, 58 total. They've only made four 20-plus plays, explosive plays. They've had four. They have Jamar Chase. Higgins is hurt. They're giving up 157 rush yards per game,

which is second to last. That's not... Last time I checked, Joe Burrow doesn't play defense. No. Derek Henry and Tajay Spears were running all over him last week. They're over under for wins before the year was 11 and a half. And we love the under. We thought that that's way too high, especially Burrow's hurt.

I feel like you can cash that in. This feels like if you lose this game, it's a wrap. And if you're Arizona, what an unbelievable spot. You're a home dog and you've looked really good all season for what people thought you're going to be there. Over under was four and a half wins. Arizona's great at home this year. They gave the Giants fits and then they beat the Cowboys. Would you play Burrow? Put the hat on here. If you were this week, you go Cardinals

this week. This seems to be not the easiest opponent, but it's an opponent that's, it's not one of the Titans of the league, obviously. Would you say rest him this week or is this do or die? He says he wants to play. We got to play him because that's what Zach Taylor is doing. The problem for them is I think people learn from the Rams game that basically they're doing what they're doing, but he can't move. And it's like, here's our new offense

based around the fact that this guy can't move. So then we go to last week and they're playing Tennessee and Tennessee is like, this guy can't move. This will be great. And we'll just, we'll play, we'll play up on the line that he won't have time to throw deep, all that stuff. I,

I, who's the backup? It's a guy named Jake Browning. And they, they recently re-signed AJ McCarron, who was out of football for a year. Right. So that's why you have to,

even on one leg, he's better than whoever you're throwing out there. And he wants to play. He's one of those guys. He's like, I'm good. And if, if you just paid him this money and he's taking you whoever you're throwing out there. And he wants to play. He's one of those guys. He's like, I'm good. And if you just paid him this money and he's taking you to a Super Bowl

and an AFC Championship game and the season's on the line and he says he's good, like is Zach Taylor going to sit him down and say, I actually don't think you're good? No, he's going to play. The bigger problem for them is Arizona might actually be pretty good.

Like they legitimately beat Dallas. They ran the ball down their throats. Their defense made plays. They had red zone stops. They were legitimately good. Last week, they hung with San Francisco for two hours. And then the game got away. How about a little something for a coach that everyone openly mocked,

completely dismissed, thought he was a clown, the way he was a little awkward with the pew, pew, pew. Jonathan Gannon's team plays every single week, and and the Eagles defense does not look the same since he left so Jonathan Gannon and they've got such a young staff in Arizona the Bill Simmons podcast where we talk Arizona Cardinals football but I'm telling you they're a fun team to watch and they've got a 29 year old defensive coordinator a 34 year old offensive coordinator a coach in his early 40s like like they're young. They have no superstars on the team. And those guys go out there and they play their ass off.

And it's hard not to root for a team like that. Sal asked me on Sunday, would you rather have Mac Jones or Josh Dobbs? And I said, not only would I rather have Josh Dobbs, I would throw in a third round pick to get Josh Dobbs if they would take Mac Jones off my hands. Josh Dobbs, I would throw in a third round pick to get Josh Dobbs if they would take Mac Jones off my hands. Josh Dobbs, he looked good enough last year that it's hard for me to believe he could just be plucked off a practice squad in August. How does that happen? Well, it's one of these deals. Guy's a late round pick. He's a third stringer in Pittsburgh forever where he's beloved. And then he ends up in Cleveland. And everyone just says, okay, well, that's what he is. He's a third stringer and he's a guy who's on your practice squad. But then these guys, whether it's him or it's Minshew or it's Josh McCown year after year after

year, sometimes these guys outplay their draft status, but there is still just such a label of, oh, he was a first round pick and he could play quarterback. Everyone's so tied to their draft analysis and what they had, these guys coming out of college, that they don't look at the player and the man and what he's done in the NFL, which Josh Dobbs had a pretty nice NFL career. He's been a survivor and every time he plays, he plays well. I wish he was on the Patriots.

Alright, next do you believe? I know the answer to this, but I'm just setting you up. I'm basically like, I'm just throwing you an alley-oop on this one. Do you believe Baker Mayfield is back? Ha! Yes. I don't think he ever

left. How about that? He's been here the whole fucking time. Been here the whole fucking time. Yes. Yes. I do a podcast for iHeart in the NFL called The Season with Peter Schrager. And I bring on current executives and coaches as my guests.

And it's their bye week. So I bring on Jason Light, their GM, who's been their GM since 2014. So he was there for all the Jameis years, the Roberto Aguayo pick. He's been around. He's survived. And they get Brady. They win a Super Bowl. And everyone's like, yeah, but Brady

was the reason that Brady retires. And it's this really pivotal year. And everyone said Tampa is either the 31st or 32nd team in the league. What is fascinating about my conversation with Jason is that Baker wasn't courted by the Buccaneers. They had Kyle Trask. They were going to probably go that direction.

Baker courted them. Baker looked at the roster, obviously thought there was still some talent, but Baker saw an opportunity to start in the NFL and was like, I can outplay Kyle Trask in training camp. Kyle Trask had a fine training camp. Baker was the dude. Baker was the Pied Piper. Baker goes in there and just wills his way to be in the starting gig. Wins the starting job. They go out there. They finish preseason. No one's picking the bucks to do anything. Baker takes all the offensive linemen and flies them to Bahamas for a trip of golf just to get

to know them better and for them to know him. Immediately, it's just little things. Jason's like, I will get texts throughout the season. It's never nefarious. It's never anything bad. It's like, just saw Baker Mayfield out at this random bar in Tampa called like the Press Box. And he's with four offensive linemen. And it's a Tuesday and he's having dinner or Baker Mayfield at this random, you know,

sporting event in Tampa Bay. And he brought Mike Evans and Chris Godwin with him. Baker has put the time in. You know where he wasn't? At either of the Tampa Bay Rays playoff games because they only had 19,000 people. I don't think he was there. All joking aside, I think he was there. And it caused controversy because he was wearing a Rays hat and apparently he's like a Rangers fan and the Rangers fans were upset that he was wearing the Rays hat.

Oh my God. But he was one of the 19,000 in St. Pete, which by the way. Wow, congrats. Come on, come on. Come on. That should be a rule. If you can't get to 25,000 for a

playoff baseball home game you gotta lose your franchise Baker's kind of like willed his way there and then on the field

you see him he talks the shit he stiff-armed Byron Murphy in week one NFL films gets him audioed up and he's like

tell the cornerback get your weight up and like that that stuff it sounds corny you roll your eyes yeah players are loving it the offensive linemen love dude. The fan base is gravitating around it.

Can he play football? He can play football. He was the first overall pick, a Heisman winner. He took the Browns to their first playoff game in 26 years. He won that playoff game. He messed up his shoulder, played through it, is immediately kicked to the curb for Deshaun Watson. And whether that's a decision they'll regret in Cleveland, we'll see down the road and see how that goes. But then he has to go on this journey from Carolina, who has to beat out Sam Darnold. He does.

Then he's discarded from them. The Rams bring him on. I know I talk to McVay and those guys all the time. They absolutely loved Baker Mayfield. Stafford loves Baker Mayfield. And now he's here where he's finally another quarterback won. It's a cool redemption story. It's a week five by week. So we'll see where we're

at in a month. But they've got a huge game coming out of the bye. They're home against the Lions and they're wearing their creamsicles. There's a vibe right now in Tampa where you have this team of players who won a Super Bowl. They lose Brady and they saw everyone put them at 32 in the power rankings,

and a quarterback who's done a lot in this league who was kind of kicked to the curb by three different franchises along the way, and oh yeah, 30 others who didn't want him on their team. So it's a cool marriage. Do I think the Bucs win the NFC South? I don't know. You know, Saints defense is good,

but Tampa just went in there. It's the Superdome. It kind of gave them the business. So there was a lot there. I think the thing that I don't understand is why he was so bad in Carolina, because you could make an excuse for the last part of Cleveland because he was hurt. Right.

And we had Garrett Bush on the podcast from Cleveland before the season. And he was saying how beloved Baker was in Cleveland, which I had no idea. Like a legitimately beloved guy in the city and they still root it for him. So that's interesting. But he goes to Carolina and he stinks. Wasn't good.

Goes to the Rams, had some flashes. And I know McVay and those guys liked him. And he had that Thursday night game when he had the crazy comeback. He was great with the Rams, dude. They also beat the Broncos on Christmas with Russell Wilson. He was really good with the Rams. For a mid-season pickup, yes.

Yeah. It's okay. So the Carolina thing traded late in the offseason. I don't know. I honestly don't know. Carolina, they haven't won a game this year. So you'd like to see him lift that. But they're not necessarily a squad that had so much stability. They ended up firing their coach

right after that coach went and got him. I'm not shocked by it because it's not like if Trubisky suddenly became good. You'd be like, wow. There were no signs Josh Rosen shows up and is now 3-1. He's had success.

It's interesting. Before the year, and of course, I just screwed up so much about this year and I knew it. I knew it as I do. We overthought it. No, we, it was an overthink and all the chalk teams this year. Like I would listen to like the,

the really smart pods, like the Solak and shield and the ringer gambling show and all the other pods. And everybody was like, yeah, Buffalo, Kansas city. It was all the same teams. I was

like, it never works that way. But if you go to the list of, I cannot believe they made the playoffs, which I had before the year. And it was basically everybody plus two 85 and up to make the playoffs. Those are the odds. So it's basically three to one odds and up. And every year there's like one or two teams from this list. I couldn't find anyone on the list, but the list was Rams, Washington, Indy, Tampa plus 360, Vegas,

Houston plus 520, Arizona plus 980. They're not going to make it, but like Houston plus 520, they might win the AFC South. They're all two and two. Tampa might win the NFC South. So I wish I had put more thought in it, but the Baker thing,

I'm sure there's teams kicking themselves. The Patriots are probably one of them. They tried to trade for Baker before the draft. Remember? He's healthy. Yes. That was way back when, and that was the tip that we got. If he didn't go first overall, New England might have went up and got him. They were going to move up. Yeah.

This is so... By the way, this will be so funny if he sucks the next five weeks we're like Schrager and Simmons did that Baker Mayfield segment and then he threw nine interceptions

there's nothing easier to jump on a bandwagon after the team starts three and one trust me I get it he is this is how

Jason Light the GM described him like and it's so sophomoric and it's so you roll your eyes but like he's a dude and he's just a guy's guy and he's he walks in that room and he's a leader and he's always been that guy and

he always bets on himself i think that's what belichick liked he just the way he carries himself and i you know i put that that video clip of of his gm raving about him up there and it it's got like five million views and i'd say it's got all these, these tweets back. And it's a lot of Browns fans being like, hell yeah, Baker, like the amount of Browns fans.

What a comeback. And what a cool story for him. Like, you know, Baker just, all right, Deshaun Watson's better than you. And he's like,

well, is he? And you know, the money is different. And obviously the salaries are different, but here's Tampa three in one and the Browns, they're not. Well, he certainly has less baggage than Deshaun Watson. I was trying to find the comeback player of the year odds,

which I cannot find. But DeMar Hamlin, who played last week, amazing. Tua, who seemed like he was going to retire in February. And then Baker Mayfield who was just dead on the fucking scrap heap so pretty good alright

you mentioned Belichick we're going to talk about him when we come back this episode is brought to you by Movember the mustache is back with a vengeance look at Travis Kelsey

before he rocked that Super Bowl ring he rocked that super soup strainer grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, we're continuing with Do You Believe?

Kyle, cover your ears. Do you believe Bill Belichick will be the Patriots coach in January? I do. You do? I don't see it ending. I don't think he wants to end. I don't think he wants to finish it. I don't think they fire him. And I think they give him one more chance to get this thing right next year. I know that sounds so blasphemous, especially with Christian Gonzalez going

down and there being absolutely zero hope for Patriots. You forgot about Matt Judon. Two best defensive players last week. I don't think he's Gonzalez going down and there being absolutely zero hope for Patriots. You forgot about Matt Judon. Yeah, we lost our two best defensive players last week. I don't think he's obsessed with the Shula record. I don't think it's... I can't see after this sustained run of excellence that

Belichick can end on this season, on this note. And I don't think Robert Kraft, for as much as we know, you and I, that he wants to win desperately and he is sick of not being in the playoffs. And for every Hamptons event or every big Michael Rubin event he's at, there's the old Patriots there around him and the surroundings of championships and wins. I can't see him kicking Bill Belichick to the curb on one year's performance and one

year's notice. I feel like this would have to be a longer discussion. And there has to be a graceful exit for Bill Belichick to the curb on one year or one year's performance and one year's notice. I feel like this would have to be a longer discussion and there has to be a graceful exit for Bill Belichick. I can't see Belichick stepping away after this season. And truly I can't see Kraft firing him. Can you? I'm going to do a semi zag. Who has a bleaker situation in the AFC than the Patriots right now?

Perhaps nobody. I would say Denver. Right? Denver's in a similar spot. Their defense is the most abominable defense we've had in the last four decades. They have this giant Wilson contract, and they have a first-round pick this year, but not next year. The Pats,

who just, if you go back, the last couple drafts that we all felt good about, they suddenly don't look as good. This year's draft looks really good, but then you lose Gonzalez. Offensively, you could talk me into just putting the entire offense on waivers.

Who are my keepers on that offense? Like, maybe even Cole Strange, first-round pick, and you talk to anybody who knows anything about offensive line, they're like, eh, he's okay. Their offensive players range from,

eh, he's okay to, eh. And Ramondre, who was supposed to be the star of the offense, what happened to him? Here's why I think he could be done. Because I do think he wants the Shula record. And let's say this Chargers thing, Staley just seems like he's trying to get fired every week

with at least one decision where he's just like, watch this, I'm going to go for it on my own 30 again with a QB who has one hand. And they're two and two. Yeah, they're two and two and it's ridiculous. But if I'm Belichick and I want to break that record, am I breaking it in New England?

Winning six games a year? This is a real zag. You think he ends up somewhere else at 72 years old? What if the Chargers, now the Chargers are cheap. That would be the one way this doesn't work. But what if the Chargers were like, hey, we have Justin Herbert.

Want to ride into the sunset with us here in Los Angeles? Wow. I'm trying to think if there's a historical... For three, four years? Dick Vermeule is the historical reference that's coming up. No. Vince fucking Lombardi went to Washington. Went to Washington, of course. No, it's happened. Dick Vermeule, Joe Gibbs came back, but he at least came back with Washington.

With Washington. Yeah, I'm thinking of a different team. Lombardi's the right one. Vermeule. There's last hurrah coaches. But I'm wondering, this roster, if you just compare it to everyone else in the AFC, the one thing you need is a quarterback.

They clearly don't have one. Unless they tank this year and try to get a top five pick, which is possible, and they have all the ways to do it now that Gonzalez and Judon are out. If they tank and get a top five pick, which is possible. And they have all the ways to do it. Now that Gonzalez and Judon are out, if they tank and get a top five pick this QB draft loaded. Now you can talk yourself into maybe we could be good next year.

Does he want to be a tanker though? Yeah. I just don't, he's never done it. I've never seen him do it. Does he also want to be around to build up a rookie court? Now it happens quicker now than it used to. Um,

but it's, you know, say they get the third or fourth pick and they get Drake May or whoever they get Pennix. round to build up a rookie quarter. Now it happens quicker now than it used to. But it's you know say they get the third or fourth pick and they get Drake May or whoever they get Penix like does he

want to be with the rookie quarter again after Mac. I don't know. Interesting thing is like what's the succession plan because he's got two sons.

They have a succession plan. It's Mayo. Mayo is the next coach. That's happening. Lock it down. Mayo they kept him

they prevented him from taking another job because they were like you're the next guy that's happening lock it down Mayo they kept him they prevented him from taking another job because they were like you're the next guy if Belichick leaves or is retiring or is fired

which I don't think is going to happen do you think Kraft gives Mayo the just okay part of that staff you don't think he says

let's start all anew and let's go get a young I think he makes I think he makes Mayo the head coach and I think everybody in New England expects that to happen at some point. Okay. He's a player, he's a coach.

The way, the most likely way I could see this coming out is the season... With losing those two guys, their defense was going to be the calling guard. They just lost the two best guys in the defense. So is this a 4-13 team, a five and 12 team, a six and 11 team? I don't know, but it's not going to be a playoff team. And maybe Belichick, like, let's say the Chargers thing goes south. Belichick can go somewhere else for three years. Maybe he does it. I don't think he, I don't think that craft would ever fire him, but I think you have to, you have to go from Brady's last season in 2019 all the way through now. And you, you have to, I love Belichick. I hate talking about this. I could not be more grateful best coach anymore? If you start with 2019 with Brady,

all the sloppiness, all the weird shit that happened down the stretch that year, how that season ended, the Cam Newton season, these three Mac Jones seasons, they haven't looked like the Patriots for five years. They haven't. And you could say it's talent. You could say it's drafting. But if he's like, I want to pick the groceries myself. Well, you haven't done a good job picking the groceries. And I don't know, this is now half a decade going back to the Rams had Superbowl game, which was in the beginning of 2019. So that's four and a half seasons ago, um, where they haven't looked like the Patriots. And I think craft the Celtics are the team town. Tatum's the guy in town. Wick is like the hot, up-and-coming,

just kick-ass owner in town. And I think Kraft gives a shit about all that stuff. And I just don't think he wants to go 5-12, 6-11 every year with a coach that's getting old. And it's interesting because you follow the same guys in the media, I think, you know, the Greg Bedards

and the Tom Kearns and the Mike Giardis. Andrew Callahan. Yeah. You got it. Callahan, Reese, and all those guys. And it's like, this year, they're openly just shitting on the team. And you've never seen that. Because they're poorly coached this year.

That's an honest media assumption. But it's like the receivers before the season. I think Giardi went on a podcast and was like, it's as bad as it's ever been. That's before the season. You're like, well, wait a second. I've heard a lot of good things about Taequann Thornton, and I've heard a lot of things about the rookie Pop Douglas, and it's like, no, these are not starters. And sure enough,

those guys are right. I'm trying to think of landing spots. You're saying the LA Chargers, like, to me, Belichick needs to go to the right owner, the right ownership group, and the right city. Now Ron Rivera's team is playing tough but Washington is the other one because new owner is just like here take it

go you know like let's start anew that's the thought. So that's the Sean Payton path right? New owner and a shitload of money. Belichick's under contract could Kraft ironically get a first round pick for Belichick? Yeah

Kraft's tight with Michael Rubin Michael Rubin's tight with Harris they used to own the Sixers together there's a whole sort of geometry that can be done here where there's familiar bedfellows but I'm not firing Ron Rivera yet that team might still win the

make the playoffs or win the NFC East that team's not going to win the NFC East Schrager I know they can make the playoffs. Do you believe? I think

this Belichick, I think there's a real chance this is it. And I don't know how it'll play out. Hey, was Sunday, I know you were with Sal, talked about it, and it was like a funeral affair. But was Sunday the low point? In recent years, just watching and you're like, it's listless. The play calling is odd. They're getting fake extra pointed. All this stuff. Was that the low point? Like in recent years, like just watching and you're like, it's listless. They're not even, the play calling is odd.

They're getting fake, fake extra pointed, like all this stuff. Like was that the low point on national TV with Romo doing the, ha, ha, ha, or also like,

all the, whoever was calling it, I don't even remember, but like just a parade all over the page. Was that the low point? I think there's been like four or five low points

and each one was lower since the tail end of Brady. Because the tail end of Brady was bad and the Brady run was so amazing. But going down to the losing on the lateral play in Miami, getting Fitzpatrick coming in and blowing their chance to get a bye week. And then just getting killed in the playoffs. And then Buffalo, what they did to the Pats in the playoffs. The whole Cam Newton experiment when he couldn't complete a pass

more than four yards to anyone. But there's been a lot of wins. But I think Sunday was the worst because I still believed I was like, this defense is good enough. We have the best coach of all time. This is a must-win game. Dallas, we can run the ball down their throats like Arizona did.

We should win this game. And the game was over in five minutes. Max got worse. Every four games, he's worse. And I don't know. I talked to a bunch of people around the Pats and people that are connected, and they're like, he doesn't have the assistance anymore. And they're blaming the assistance over Bill,

but Bill's in his early seventies. It's old to be an NFL head coach. He's competing at somebody like McVay, who's 38. He's burning it. Obviously he's burning it on both ends and is just completely obsessed. Like Belichick probably is as well, but it's a difference to being able to do it at 72 and 36. Really hard. You need to delegate. Well, we'll see. My bet would be no. Next, do you believe McCaffrey can do this for five months and not one?

By this, I mean be the best running back. I'm not saying injury, but I think it's too torrid a pace. I think he'll be the best running back in the league. He'll be an all-pro. I'm not patting myself on the back. Yeah, I'm not saying injury, but I think it's too torrid a pace. I think I'll be the best running back in the league. He'll be an all-pro. I'm not patting myself on the back.

I had a lot of shit predictions. I had Sean Payton in the Broncos and I had Sean Payton as coach of the year before the season started. But I did say at 80-1, I think it was, that McCaffrey's going to be the MVP this year because I think all these quarterbacks

are going to neutralize each other and McCaffrey is just finally healthy and in the system for a full year. It's been unbelievable. He's not their only option, but they have been riding him this entire way. I love watching him play. I love watching that offense.

Do I think he can stay healthy? Yes. Do I think they're going to ride him the way they have? I don't see that, but this might be one of those historic running back seasons. That was good. I remember we talked about, I think Sal and I, that was the long shot that jumped out to us just because the way he finished with San Francisco. Problem is running backs never win the MVP. No. The Good Morning Football, they make us pick not only Super Bowl winner,

but we have to pick MVP coach of the year. And I had to wear a jersey. They really make you do it. I had to wear a jersey and I put on that McCaffrey jersey and I'm the year. And like, I had to wear a jersey. Like, they really make you do it. I had to wear a jersey and I put on that McCaffrey jersey and I'm like running back. And 99% of the responses from people in the league and everything was like, he might be the best player.

He'll win offensive player of the year. He won't win MVP. It would have to, everyone would have to be awful. And sure enough, you and Sal were looking at the MVP odds. He's still not in the top 10,

I don't think. I think it's like, you know, it goes Allen and it goes Tua and then it goes Jalen Hurts and then Mahomes will eventually get in that list too.

He has to have a truly historic season. That would be 1,000 and 1,000, plus his team be the one seed, and all those quarterbacks kind of have the same year amongst each other. Oh, I think he would have to go, what's he at, 459 and 141? 2,000 and 1,000? What do you think? No, I was thinking like 1,500 and 1,000, something like that. 20 touchdowns, something crazy.

For it to happen. They're fun to watch. I'm curious about Sunday because Cowboys defense is legit and Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan have had their showdowns and the Cowboys D, even though they've lost those two playoff games,

have done a very solid job. Right. Let's see. Also like a nice little fun Brock Purdy test for the unfeated Brock, my guy. Gosh, he's so good. All right. You're going to love this one. This will be what they end up using for social just because of the way the NFL works these days.

Taylor Swift one. All credit to Mike Lombardi who said this on his podcast on Monday, and I hadn't thought about it before, and I was really mad that I didn't think about it on Sunday night. Is this too big of a distraction for the Chiefs, this Taylor Swift, Travis Kelsey relationship? Because Lombardi's case was in the last basically three quarters of that game, the Chiefs played like shit and looked like shit. And Mahomes is under throwing dudes and they just, they weren't crisp at all. And you have something like this happening, which it really

feels like almost like late nineties bulls from an attention standpoint, right? It's like when it was just like, you watch the last dance and it's just like eyeballs on every single movement of everything. This is the biggest crossover story that's happened to the NFL since Kaepernick. Is it too much early in the season for a team trying to figure itself out? Let me give you my insight. I'll empty the bag on it. I did two games on Sunday.

I did pregame for Fox at the Commanders-Eagles game. Did all the hits from there. And then I got on my horse and I went to Jets Chiefs. And the same day, drove up, whatever the route is, I get there. And it felt, and I've done 20 Super Bowls in a row, it felt like a Super Bowl with the buzz of the celebrity factor in this thing and the amount of attention and outside stuff. So I get there, I've got a credential to be on the field. I go to the chief's side and you've got Paul Rudd and his family. You've got all sorts of different chief

celebrity fans who live in New York and there's all this stuff. Then on the Jets side, there's Jeremy Strong is there and J.B. Smoove and Ray Romano and it's like, and then she comes into the building and Aaron Rodgers is there, by the way, also. She comes into the building. I'm on the field. There's a buzz around this thing. And it's her. It's Blake Lively.

And it was real. And I've been to all the Super Bowls. And I feel it there. And it's like, oh, everywhere you turn, there's someone cool and notable that you've seen on TV. And it's, oh, an NFL legend here, NFL legend there. This thing is such a phenomenon. Now, the Chiefs are still just a football team

and they are still just a team with a security staff of just a football team. And Travis Kelsey, as famous as he is, this is brand new territory. I don't think it's affected the play on the field yet. I do think it's another variable for a team that's four games into the season.

Dude, she went to dinner the night before with Mahomes' wife, and I got texts from 10 different people in New York City. She's at Emilio Bilados right now, and it's Blake Lively, and she's there, and Kelsey isn't there. Meanwhile, Kelsey has a home in Kansas City. The paparazzi are outside that home when Swift was there. They're already tracking whether she's going to Minnesota or not.

Is she going to be there and where is she going to stay and where is she going to dine and which celebrities is she going to bring out? And Kelsey tight end. He's really good. He's, he's, he's one of the greatest to ever play the game. This has brought a whole different set of eyeballs.

And so far the NFL has been embracing it. It's great. Do I think it's a distraction? No, but it's an extra element where these players are now aware that they are a totally different stratosphere as to who's watching and what exactly the microscope that's going to be on them. I guess, how do you define a distraction? Because I would say every single element of this qualifies. Distraction has a negative connotation. It's like, oh, that's a distraction. That's a bad thing. I'm not saying this is a bad thing. This isn't anything other than an inordinate amount of attention, eyeballs, energy, constant maintenance surrounding a team that is used to it if it's playing in a Super

Bowl, but not week to week. This is now a week to week thing. And you study any team that this has happened to, and the Bulls are a famous example of this. There is a wear and tear to it. There was a wear and tear with LeBron and the Heat that year in 2011. Teams that are under the microscope like this, if you're not used to it, it does hurt the team. So I'll be interested to see if it happens. Your daughter's 18 years old, college freshman. Was she a Swifty, if you will? Is she in that demographic or no? Hardcore. Yeah. Hardcore.

Most are. I hate to blame two older guys talking about what teams are they like. Is she now watching the chiefs? Cause that's the question. Like, is it bringing in this new audience? Okay. I think it is bringing a new audience cause we have all the data. And then there was like 2 million extra million extra female viewers.

I think my wife is a good example. Cause she's kind of like, she barely knows who anyone is in football, but now she's like Travis Kelsey. Oh. And she has like in football. But now she's like, Travis Kelsey. Oh, and she has like opinions. Yeah. So it's brought in that element. But I think from just as, I think the more interesting thing to me with the Chiefs is

just, they seem like a team that's really figuring themselves out. I don't know who they're, third and eight, if you double cover Kelsey, who's he going to? And if he's on like the other team's 18 and they need a touchdown, it's third and nine, and they just take Kelsey out. What receiver does he trust the most? I have no idea.

Is it Rice? Is it like Jared McKinnon coming out of the backfield? Like, I don't even know. Number four, Rice was the one. Noah Gray had a big catch for them. And it felt like it was just Pacheco in every big spot. You can't really... That was last week.

It's interesting. They were up 17-0. Did they get bored? That was the question I was having because I was in the building and it... Very possible. Jets fans were booing. And you know how the Bulls were in 98, 97.

It's like some night... It's funny. Of all people, J.B. Smoove, I was talking to him and it was during the game and we happened to be... I was in the press box when I came down and I was milling around the building a little bit and I bump into him him and it was during the game and we happened to be, I was in the press box when I came down and I was going around the building a little bit and I bump into him and his, his theory was my homes went out like Jordan.

He was in Atlantic city the night before that this was it. And I'll die in Lebanon. Leon is telling me that he's like, nope, my home's was out last night. Cause I've never seen it. I'm like, great take,

great take. I love it. They'll figure themselves out. They get Nick Bolton back this week. But I think the Taylor Swift thing is fascinating. Not so much about the outside stuff, but it's also, how's this go now?

Because it's one thing to do it two weeks and they played at home and it was on Fox. Now you're at Minnesota. You're going to that game. She's got a tour where she's going, I think, to Asia coming up. During the Super Bowl, she's going to be in it. Is this a thing? Is it not a thing? I will say there was a press release that came through that Ryan Reynolds' marketing agency is working with Jake from State Farm. If you saw it, Jake from State Farm was with Donna Kelsey. And I'm like, I get it. This is now becoming things that everyone... It's like a carcass. Everyone wants a piece of this thing and we're all going to be well the recurring lesson to make your brand dude the recurring lesson from 2023 is that she is the biggest celebrity we have and one of the biggest celebrities of my lifetime i feel

like she's the biggest celebrity since michael jackson there's no other person that would have the effect like this she walked walked in and Diana Teresi, um, from the athletic formerly VSP and did the video and it was identified. I'm talking about the basketball player. You mixed her up with Teresi. You didn't even say it right. Their stepdaughter,

Diana Teresi. Teresi, by the way, great, great restaurant in New York. So, they, she does the video

and it's great and Taylor waves and it's so funny because on Good Morning Football, we're showing this video and we're not identifying that freaking Hugh Jackman

and Ryan Reynolds are behind her. It's like, it doesn't matter. Right. And here's Taylor. It's like Marilyn Monroe. This is like what it sounds like.

Marilyn Monroe is like in the 50s. Trying to think. She's bigger than everything. It must have been, right? I mean, obviously. Madonna had this for it sounds like. Marilyn Monroe is like in the 50s. Trying to think. She's bigger than everything. It must have been, right? I mean, obviously. Madonna had this for a couple of years. I felt like it was before your time. Yeah, mid 80s.

Like Sean Penn years or dating like Rodman. Sean Penn, but she was just like a comet. But Taylor hits, Taylor seems like she hits more people because she's got like the generations of stuff. Also an incredibly high approval rating. And now people would be, if they didn't like her, they'd be afraid to say it.

I can't wait till she takes a shot at Kardashian. She will, right? She'll take one at Kardashian and then we'll have a real fight. Jamie Erdahl, who's the host of our show, she's like Nora. She's been a Swifty long before football. Knows every lyric and everything. Her beef was with the people who are upset that Taylor

is now being talked about on the games. And it's like, just embrace it. It's fun. What is your thing? These territorial football fans. But I sort of side with them too. At a certain point, I think once you're watching the game, you don't necessarily need the box every two seconds.

I don't know where you stand on that. I don't really care. We watch so much football every Sunday for so many hours that it's like, all right, here's another wrinkle. I think what's interesting to me is that every September, there's some sort of NFL side distraction story, right? And usually it's negative. Yep. Usually it's like, you know, 2011 or 12, whatever year that was with the replacement refs or like Ray Rice or like-

We don't have to go down the list here. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. You know the list. Or concussions become a thing. Or it's like there's some rule change that everybody's upset about. This is like one of the only positive September distractions I think they've ever had.

Where it's like, there's no downside to this story. People are complaining that they showed her too many times on TV. That's not a downside. Yeah. You know? The audience is growing. The most watched NBC game since the Super Bowl. I just picture Goodell in his office just stroking a bald cat.

Just being like, Hey, before we go, do you believe dot, dot, dot Houston is for real? I don't believe yet. And I know they get back a lot of guys and I know that Tunzel and Howard

They're getting some D-backs soon. They're getting Tunzel back. They're getting Tunzel back. They're getting Tunzel back. Howard's coming back and they have had two awesome wins. They kicked the crap out of the Steelers and I love those new red uniforms. I just need to see it over the course because this is a really young team

and that division is wide open and you know that the Jaguars eventually are going to figure things out and the Titans are always going to be well coached. First year coach, first year offensive coordinator, rookie quarterback. It's a great story in September and I love it. I'm rooting for it. I think I was the one who came on your podcast and got widely ridiculed for being okay with the trade to go up and get Will Anderson in the draft because there was some urgency to do so. They didn't have any reason to come in. So they're like, we can't wait another year and we don't care about next year's first round pick. Let's get two cornerstone pieces.

And those guys have been fantastic. I love the story. I can't say I believe in them as like a playoff team yet. I'm glad you brought that up because I thought it was bizarre that they made a lot of people. That's okay. I just thought it was bizarre. I just didn't understand it. And it's like, if you're doing this, these guys have to be fucking anchors. Like you have to be positive that Stroud is an anchor and Anderson's an anchor. And this is it. This is going to fucking work.

And they were right. I mean, you could say, no, but, but you could say Stroud. I think that guy's got it. Like,

I mean, have you seen the numbers? I'm in. He doesn't even have an offensive line. They don't block for him. I'm 100% in. He's in the top five in passing yards. Hasn't thrown an interception

yet. There's only two players in the history of the sport who have gone through four weeks to do that, and that's Peyton Manning and Cam Newton, who had a sensational start to his career. He doesn't throw picks. I was talking to a coach and they were like, look how he throws.

His throwing motion. He's not compared to Dan Marino, but it's so technically sound that he sits in the pocket. He's so big. He throws. The throwing motion itself is beautiful that there is no technique you have to work on.

It's not like this is a raw project and we got to work it off. He's already got that, which is at the very most minimum piece. That's the thing you always worry about with these kids coming out of college. You have to work on the technique out of college. He's already there. So that was right. And then, like I said, they've been so irrelevant the last two years.

They've had empty buildings. Their fans don't even exist. Shit, 2023 or not, because the next year, they might not have 12 months to wait. They went and they did this trade. And I know it's crazy to trade a first round pick for a defensive end, but you know what?

They did it and both guys are awesome kids and they've been playing really well. He passes the test to me, like though coming out of commercial, you'll see him on the sideline, like just carries himself like quarterback it's really I'm really impressed by him

I had no idea I also love Richardson like if you told me Fond Fond I could have one of those two for the next 10 years I actually don't have an answer yet

because like Richardson he made a third down throw in that game because I had the Colts last week where it was like third third and 11

and it was like oh here's where it was like, oh, here's where... That was a fun comeback, but here's where it ends. And then he rolled left, waited, bought himself two seconds, found a guy for 13 yards to keep the drive going. I was like, man, Mac Jones can't do that now.

No, he can't. Aaron Donald had him around the neck taking him down. And on one leg, he threw it 40 yards in had him around the neck, taking him down. And on one leg, he threw it 40 yards in the air and hit Alec Pierce on what might be the prettiest pass that we've seen all season. And that's just, that kid is raw.

So like he had the one where he, you know, he moved to the left and he escaped Aaron Donald and then he flipped it over to the running back for the touchdown. And it's like, it was one handed he got crushed on the play he is so fun to watch it's

a treat to watch the Colts right now I forgot to ask you about McVay we gotta go but just give me the quick I didn't want to pick them for worst record in the league I don't know if McVay is capable of tanking I think he's been the best

coach through the first four games out of anybody because... Him or D'Amico Ryans, the Texans. Those are the two teams that I think everyone... But to do this without Cup, to do this when your offensive line is completely in shambles, I can't name more than eight Rams and just every

week they're like... He's just maximized whatever potential that team has week to week. It's fucking crazy. Like, they couldn't even play 40 minutes against the Colts.

Like, to say they held on at the end of that game, it was like a miracle, you know, that if they didn't win the coin toss, that game was over.

And hey, Skrullnick called tails and that was all they needed. I'll tell you, I talked to him after that game, and I thought it would be one of those, in a typical year, maybe last year, maybe the years before, he'd be like, can you imagine? We almost gave that away.

He was ecstatic. They're having so much fun right now. And this is the first time since his first year as a coach, when they came out of nowhere, that he's actually got no expectations and having fun. But you look at this team right now, it's all fifth, sixth, seventh round picks. It's all day three guys.

It's chip on their shoulder. I got something to prove, guys. The names Kobe Durant and Yeast and some of these players. And Nakua was the 177th player in the draft, but they liked him. They took him. And a little cool nugget on Nakua.

So everyone was like, Cooper Cup goes down. Oh, they have no chance on offense. But Cooper Cup wasn't with them most of the summer. He was working on his hamstring. He was working on himself getting right. Nakua was. Nakua hit it off with Stafford early on. McVay loved Nakua. They were like, this is our dude. There's a thing called the Breakfast Club. And for years, it was Andrew Whitworth, Sean McVay, Cooper Cupp, and Matthew Stafford. They would get into the building at like 5.30 a.m. when everyone else was supposed to get in around 8. And they would just watch film and they would BS. And it became like a bit of a legend that this was the breakfast club.

They got together. Nakua, a fifth round rookie, one week into his NFL career, knocks on the door to Stafford in the quarterback's room and is like, is it cool if I join you guys and I can join you and I can do it? And they're like, yes, you're welcome to come. So he's already done it. And everyone's like, well, the numbers are going to go down once

Cup comes back. I don't know. The dude's fucking open all the time for four quarters. He's wide open every play. Here's what it is. So Cup is going to be the cup roll. Nakua will be the Robert Woods roll. This is back when they were lighting it up. And then Tutu Atwell is the Brandon Cooks roll. And they're excited about that.

Sean's excited about that. He also quietly, completely revamped the coaching staff. It's not a topic that's like going to be, but there was a lot on his shoulders last year. They've got a new offensive coordinator and Michael Floor, Matt's little brother,

who's doing a great job. A new offensive line coach, a new running backs coach, new coaches all over the place. And they play 12 different rookies. They're having fun. So I don't know if they're going to win many more games,

but shit, this reminds me of their 2020 season when they... Coming off the Super Bowl, they had a bad year. Then 2021, no one expected them to be what they were. And they had a bunch of guys, whether it be Darius Williams at defensive back or Greg Gaines, they had all these lesser known players come up and step up when they need them. They're doing that right away from the go. And credit to that coaching staff, the front office for this not being a tank year. And they don't look at it

that way. They never did. If you look at the NFC, pencil in Philly and San Francisco, probably pencil in Dallas. I'm admitting defeat on Detroit. I think that team's good. I would have them for that division. Somebody from the NFC South.

That's five. Then probably Seattle Seattle I mean although the Rams thumped them in week one but I'm going to say probably I'm not saying definitely but that would be the six find that seven you can tell me seven teams for the seventh so it's like could Tampa get

it could the Rams get it Washington sneak in there could Arizona get super frisky like I don't fucking know. But that could be a 9-8 team that we can't believe they made the playoffs. And I don't know, the Rams might be in there. All right, you got to go. Do some plugs.

Do you believe that good morning football is on fire? Yes, we are. Ratings are up. We're doing good. We're surviving over here. NFL Network every morning, Monday to Friday. And then I'm on a show on Sunday's Fox NFL Kickoff with Julian Edelman, as well as Charles Woodson, Michael Vick, and Carissa Thompson.

Bill, I know you love talking about the show that you're working with, that Wise Guys. I got to say, you're treating it like it's succession. The watch parties are going on. Give some eyeballs to Fox NFL Kickoff. We're doing a nice job over here, man. I'm expecting Andy Greenwald to be doing recaps of the Wise Guys show. You and Sal talk about it so much on Sunday nights. Just give me a little love, okay? We're friends. You can watch. Listen, I have three TVs on Sunday morning and you're on one of the three TVs. I like to check in with you guys. I love it.

And then my podcast is fun. It's different. I take pride in it. I book my own guests. I listen to you on a smart list and you're like, at some point, you're just like, I want to do it myself. And that was what the case is with this podcast.

And it's called The Season with Peter Schrager. And there's no ego. There's no ambition. It's more just me talking to the coaches and the GMs and it's about their lives, their stories, called The Season with Peter Schrager. And there's no ego. There's no ambition. It's more just me talking to the coaches and the GMs, and it's about their lives, their stories. But also, we've been making quite a bit of news. So I'm proud of that one also.

And I appreciate you having me on. I miss you, buddy. Good seeing you, Schrags. A pleasure as always. All right, you're the man. Million Dollar Picks, week five. Week four did not go well. 0 for 5. Am I scared?

No, I'm not. Have I been here before? Yes, I have. We're fine. We're okay. Had some bad luck last week. Spent a lot of time. I flew back east this week.

I was able to just be on planes, just studying weird statistics. I feel great. Don't abandon me. Don't abandon hope. All lines courtesy of FanDuel. I'm going to tell you who we're staying away from this week. Bill's Jaguars.

As you know, I do not bet on the London games. I just don't. I don't like waking up and somebody's up 17-0 and I don't know what happened and I'm just out. I'm blind out. It's another country. It's weird. You can never get a gauge on the sleep schedules. I'm out. Titans, Colts. I really want to take Titans minus two and a half, but I'm just a little scared of the Colts. I watched that whole game last week because I had them and they fought back and Richardson scares me and I just don't want to go against them. Pittsburgh, who really just threw me in the oven and cooked me at 350 degrees this

season. They have just murdered me. They're in a great spot against Baltimore, plus four and a half at home. It's a spot that I would jump on a Mike Tomlin team a hundred times out of a hundred, but this is the 101st time. I can't bet on Matt Canada and an injured Kenny Pickett. I just can't. I can't. I'm sorry. Pittsburgh, I have enough money on you in futures anyway. Hopefully you'll come through, but I'm not betting on you. Dolphins, Giants, that line's too high. I don't trust the Dolphins defense. Eagles, Rams is like four and a half, 5. It's in the Vegas zone. I love the Eagles, but I'm staying away. The Rams, there's a vibe to them, like Schrager talked about.

I'm staying away. Chiefs-Vikes, that line is super suspicious. It keeps dropping. It dropped to Vikes plus 3.5 in Minnesota. There's backdoor TD potential. I don't know what's going on with the Chiefs. I don't know how distracted they are. I really like the Vikes,

but I also don't want to bet on Kirk Cousins against Pat Mahomes. So I'm not doing that. Staying away. And last but not least, Houston plus one and a half at Atlanta. I wanted to bet on Atlanta so badly. And there are like 45 horrible Desmond Ritter stats that are just like each one on its own are alarming. And then you add all of them up and you just can't do it. Houston looks too easy.

I'm staying away. Here's what we're doing for week five. We have four bets. The first one, I'm going against the Bengals again. They have 49 points for the season. They have 58 first downs. They have a quarterback playing on one leg. They have no explosive plays. There's videos on YouTube of Joe Burrow's throws this year where he looks like a high school quarterback because he has no zip on the ball, plus he can't move. Their defense is giving up 157 rushing yards per game. The Bengals are favored by three in Arizona. And the reason is because people don't trust Arizona yet. I trust Arizona only from the sense that I've watched some of these games. I watched them beat Dallas. I watched them hang with San Francisco. Arizona's not bad. And they should be favored in this game. And yet they're getting

three. And my rule with this stuff is if the line is like three to four points different than what I had in my head, I have to take the team. So I'm taking Arizona plus three. And I think since this season, I actually think this is the year from hell season for them. Much like the Rams last year. Sometimes it happens and you end up, oh my God, I can't believe they went 6-11. It's going to happen at Cincinnati. Second game, 49ers minus 3.5 at home against Dallas. I am naming this the chest hair game.

So 3.5, you got to throw some chest hair on. Because if it's 3, you're like, ah, I love 49ers. 49ers by three, done. Because in the back of your head, you're like, well, if they win by three, I push. Three and a half, that half point, it can psych you out and you can overthink it. And this happened in week one, Falcons minus three and a half over the Panthers. Also in week one, Cowboys minus three and a half over the Giants. Week two, Chiefs minus three and a half over the Jags. Week two, Chiefs minus three and a half over the Jags.

Week three, Browns minus three and a half over the Titans. Each time you're like, oh man, I wish that line was three. I don't know that extra half point. Just trust your gut. Is your gut that one team's going to beat the other? Don't worry about the half point. Just bet it nine out of 10 times you're going to hit it. I hope this isn't the

10th time, but this 49ers team, as long as McCaffrey, Debo, Kittle, as long as all those guys are healthy and the Niners, the issue with them is always, can they all stay healthy? Can we avoid having the red flags next to their fantasy icons? They seem super healthy. And that Dallas team coming off beating the horrendous Pats, I don't know. I think this line should be at least four. So I'm grabbing it. 49ers minus three and a half. So I have two parlays for my last two bets. Both of them involve the Lions money line, which is minus 490 on FanDuel against Carolina. I think Carolina is one of the two worst teams in the league. I think the Lions are good. I'll admit defeat on them.

Good on both lines. Offensive weapons. Just a legitimately good team. And I trust them to beat Carolina. That means we can take that money line and have some fun with it. And that's what we're going to do. We're going to put them,

this is where it gets fun, my friends. Because betting on Zach Wilson, I've never tried cocaine or heroin, but this is what it feels like when you bet on Zach Wilson. You just, you're hopping on the fucking horse. We're going to do Jets adjusted line minus two and a half over the Broncos.

The Broncos are favored by two over the Jets. The Broncos have the worst defense that Aaron Schatz has ever recorded in Football Outsiders dating back to like 1980. If Zach Wilson can't do well against this defense, they should just shoot him to Mars. And I know it's like, oh, you're overreacting because he looked okay against the Chiefs last week. But this Denver defense makes everybody look fantastic. This is a nice spot for the Jets. They figured out their offensive line stuff a little bit. Brees Hall's looking good.

Garrett Wilson. And this Denver defense is miracle workers. They can make everybody, maybe even the Pats, they can make the Pats offense look good. The Jets have also played Buffalo, Dallas, New England's defense, and Kansas City in the first four weeks. So this Jets minus two and a half in the Lions money line as a parlay, plus 181 on FanDuel. We're grabbing that.

And then last but not least, this is also going to be my featured boost on FanDuel, which has a 50% profit boost if you hit it. And you have to put three legs in there. So we're putting three legs. We're putting that Lions money line that I mentioned. We're doing Pat Saints adjusted over under minus 47 and a half. So 47 points or lower, we win.

What are the ads that Derek Carr with a bad shoulder and Mac Jones with a bad everything are going to score 48 points in a football game? Here's the answer. They're not. It's not going to happen. 47 and a half adjusted under in the Saints money line. Why the Saints money line?

Because I think the Patriots season is over. Gonzalez is out for the year. Their star rookie cornerback, who might have been the best rookie in the whole league, he's gone. They had to trade for JC Jackson, who just two weeks ago admitted, I'm not healthy. So that's our new starting quarterback. And Matt Judon's out too for three months. So the best two guys on the defense that was a good defense wasn't great. They're both gone.

And the offense is the worst offense. It makes me want to jam my fingernails in my eyeballs. It's so bad. Steven Ruiz in the Ringer NFL show this week compared it to watching somebody play chess with all pawns. And I thought that was perfect. That's exactly what the Patriots offense is like. Want to play some chess? Sure, I'd love to. I'm only going to use pawns. That's

great. I'm definitely going to win. That's the Patriots offense. You take the Saints money line, you take the under 47 and a half adjusted and the Lions money line, and that gets us a plus 184 parlay on Fandle. So we're putting 200K on both of those parlays. We are putting 300 on 49ers minus three and a half. We're putting 300 on the Cardinals plus three. Those are the million dollar picks for week five. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Thanks to cop creighton and steve cerruti for producing as always if you want to watch any of the content from this podcast you

can go to youtube.com slash bill simmons we put up a lot of clips and in some cases we just put up like most of the podcasts so you should check that out and i have a new rewatch what's coming monday night and i will see you on this feed on Sunday night with Cousin Sal. Enjoy the weekend. A few years with him On the wayside On the Bruce and Leveron Sayin' I don't have to Must be 21 plus in president select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas

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