The Bobby Bones Show - Now’s The Time

Episode Date: May 2, 2023

Economist, author and baseball fan Michael Walden gives us a macro look at an economy that has bounced back surprisingly well post-covid, and offers a generally favorable outlook about what is coming down the pike.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed human. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits,

my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

So let's get to it. Listen to the. the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This week on the Sports Slice podcast, it's all about the NFL draft. And we've got a special guest. The director of the NFL's East West Shrine Bowl, Eric Galco, joins the Sports Slice podcast to break down what really matters when evaluating draft prospects.

From hidden traits teams look for to the biggest mistakes franchises make to the players flying under the radar. This is the insight you won't hear anywhere else. If you want to understand the draft like an insider, you don't want to miss this episode. Listen to the Sports Slice podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicel Life 12

and TikTok podcast network on TikTok. When a group of women discover they've all dated the same prolific con artist, they take matters into their own hands. I vowed, I will be his last target. He is not going to get away with this. He's going to get what he deserves. We always say that trust your girlfriends.

Listen to the girlfriends. Trust me, babe, on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to On the Job. As you might be noticing, if you're a long-time listener, I am not Otis Gray. I'm Avery Thompson, who you may remember hearing way back in season three when I told my story a rush with fame. While I'm back again, and I'm excited to take the wheel for our whole new season of On the Job, our seventh, in fact. So over the next eight episodes, I'll be speaking with folks who have finally folded up those pandemic sweatpants and are back out there, doing what they love,

and keeping America moving forward. This season, On the Job, is on the move. So come along for the ride. It's become a bit of a tradition here at On The Job to start the season by speaking with an economist, someone who can help us understand the current state of our labor market. So to kick things off, I gave a call to Raleigh, North Carolina, to speak with Dr. Michael L. Walden, Professor Emeritus of North Carolina State University, and veteran economist with over 40 years of expertise. But before you go thinking, oh no, an economist, hit the fast-forward button. You'll be relieved to know that I chose a person that understands your apprehension and has made it his life's work to help people get over that econ phobia.

Economics is really common sense, and I've made it my life's purpose to explain things in ways that people can understand. And my wife always teased me. I'll probably expire at some meeting where I'm talking and I'll just slip off the podium and go on, go to the next level, because I do love talking about and explaining economics to people. You'll move on to that big economic forum in the sky, That's right, that's right.

And more than just being helpful, Dr. Walden actually thinks economics can be thrilling, literally. I've written with my wife what we call three economic thrillers. Now, don't laugh because that's usually reaction I get because people think thrilling economy, that they shouldn't go together. But I was motivated to do that by, quite frankly, economists used a lot of really boring textbooks. And I felt sorry for my students. And I thought, if I could write something that would teach them economics, but would be exciting to read. So over the course of several years, my wife and I actually wrote three, one on macroeconomics, one on microeconomics, and one on the financial system.

And students love them. So if you're looking for an exciting summer read, we'll have links to Dr. Walden's books in the show notes. In the meanwhile, I asked them to explain the current state of our nation's economic affairs. Dr. Walden, as the hard-hitting journalist that I am, I just did a quick Google search, and I see that the unemployment rate is 3.4%. That's pretty darn low, isn't it? It's, I think, actually, a 40-year low. It's been amazing. In fact, we had a pretty rip-boring economy prior to the pandemic, and of course, the pandemic hit. We economists knew that that was going to cause a recession, and it did. We had an unemployment rate. in March, I believe, March or April of 2020, a 14 percent highest since the so-called Great Depression of the 1930s.

But once we began to open up, which happened at the end of May, and once the federal government started pushing stimulus money in, the economy began to quickly recover. And actually, we got back to pre-levels of at least production within another quarter, and we've been growing since. And we're actually now in an economy that's beyond where it was pre-pandemic in terms of production and also in terms of employment. I think we can all agree that a low unemployment rate is a good thing, but I have to admit that I didn't entirely understand

what that looked like out in our job market. With the unemployment rate being 3.4%, does that mean that there are no jobs available for someone looking? Or are there lots of jobs that we just can't keep filled? Oh, no, there right now, a lot of people heard this, recently that there were two jobs available for every person unemployed. It's actually gotten a little better as about 1.7 jobs available for every person unemployed. Now, pre-pandemic, which was more normal, it was only 1.2 jobs available for every person

employed. So, yeah, there are still signs out there in businesses saying, please apply. But Dr. Walden explained the types of jobs that are widely available are different from those that we might have seen one or two years ago, because as a world returns to some sort of post-pandemic normal, Americans are once again craving community. We want to hang out at bars and restaurants again, or maybe take that long overdue vacation. And therefore, the jobs market, those now hiring signs we're seeing all over town, reflect the shift in consumer behavior. If you look at the latest job report we had for the nation, which came out January, it was a very robust report. What we saw is a lot of people taking a lot of people taking

restaurant jobs and personal service jobs, exactly the opposite of what happened after the pandemic. And I think what's happened here is the tech sector is slowing down. So I think that this makes sense to me that as a tech sector sheds some people, those people, maybe some of them are saying, well, I've got to go back at least for a while and maybe those jobs that I left. Despite the very favorable labor market with nearly two jobs available for every job seeker, Dr. Walden suggests that we shouldn't get too comfortable. Employers have a special trick up their sleeve to combat this labor shortage that we should all be careful about.

One thing we're going to see more of to deal broadly with the labor shortage is something that we actually feared a decade ago, and that is technology. In other words, robots. Well, also automation and AI, but yes, also robots. But I think some of those technologies have been developed, they may hit at just the right time. And it's no longer just factory jobs and other repetitive tasks that are at risk of being replaced. Especially now, for example, we're getting AI. AI is being developed and there's some scary things about that.

But that's going to influence people at more cognitive jobs. So I don't think we should get too set in thinking, oh, this labor shortage is going to go on. I do think eventually we're going to see a lot of this technology come in and be used by businesses. So I still think people need to worry about getting the skills that they need to get in order to get the job they want and just don't be setting back and say, oh, I can get a job anytime I want because there's so many jobs deal. I think eventually it'll change. So Dr. Walden's advice, get that job now, folks. Strike while the iron's hot.

We'll be right back. takes pride in a job well done. This is the kind of person you need. Express employment professionals can help, because in good times or bad, we understand how critical it is to manage your business for today with the right workforce. We offer hiring solutions to fit changing demands.

Express knows jobs. Get to know Express. Go to Expresspros.com to find a location near you. We're back, speaking with economist Dr. Michael L. Walden, who was just reflecting on the very strong post-pandemic labor market we're enjoying. But Dr. Walden also acknowledges that even in a blazing labor market that heavily favors the worker, sometimes landing that job is easier said than done. We are probably in an era where what businesses want and the skills that are needed are changing more rapidly than any time before. And I think what's going to happen is, this is not me saying this,

the kind of jobs that are going to be applied for people and the skills that are needed are going to change. What Dr. Walden is talking about has already been playing out far and wide. In just three decades, we've gone from dial-up modems to nearly every single job in America requiring some level of computer proficiency. And we're not just talking about office workers. Waitresses are taking our orders on iPads. Mechanics are plugging our cars into diagnostic systems. Metal fabricators are using CNC machines and laser cutters.

Even our doctors are asking us to open wide, stick out our tongues, and zoom in with our camera phones. And while the adoption of these technologies has allowed for some phenomenal advancements, it also poses some challenges to America's workforce. And what I worry about is that... that we may very well be looking down the road at the situation where we have a large percentage of people who are, say, middle-aged, they've been working at their job for a decade or two,

they've got family to raise, et cetera, who one day wake up and find their job's gone. They may be taken over by technology. It may have been changed in some way. And they need to get retrained. And they don't have time to go to a four-year college, spend four years retraining. So I think we need to start looking at programs

that get people retrained in skills that are needed quickly. I think we need to encourage businesses to set up their own training programs for people. So I think the rapidity in what skills are going to change will require a much more rapid and efficient educational system. So to meet these swiftly changing times, we're going to have to get clever about education and retraining. From the returning popularity of trade schools to coding boot camps, Americans are scrambling to stay ahead and take some agency in their future career path. Now, of course, I wouldn't be fulfilling my hosting duties here if I spoke to an economist and didn't ask him to gaze into his crystal ball.

So I hit Dr. Walden with a question that seems to be on everyone's minds these days. Will we have a recession? And his response was, And I'm in the camp and I think we will toward the end of the year. But before you get too concerned, he added some very interesting caveats. So there's one idea that economists have been batting around, sort of in the background here, is that if we get a recession, we may actually see businesses not layoff anyone, or maybe the layoff would be very minor because they can cut their labor costs by simply cutting the number of unfilled positions.

So the forecast that I've seen, even in the worst case scenario, is maybe the unemployment rate would go up to 5%. And 5% unemployment. Now, I don't want anyone listening to think that I don't care about unemployed people. I do. My father worked in construction. He was unemployed a couple times always every year, and I remember living through that. But if 5% of unemployment, when I was in graduate school 50 years ago, that was considered full employment. And so if we get to 5% employment, and that's the worst during what I think will be an upcoming recession, that would be great.

So fingers crossed, if we do have a recession, I think there'll be best case scenario, there'd be no negative impact on the job market. But if it's a normal situation, even minimal impact on the job market, and then we'll get back. And then the other thing that companies are remembering is they had to work hard to get the people they have because it's so competitive. And so a lot of companies are ever being reluctant to let people go because they're worried they can't get them back when times get back to normal and the economy booms again. Only time will tell how things play out. But I hope for everyone's sake that Dr. Walden is right

and things won't be as bad as some of these doomsday pundits have been predicting that this labor market will continue to roar. But then, just as we were wrapping up our interview, I noticed hanging in the background of his office, a long row of baseball caps, all of them bearing the logo of the Cincinnati Reds. And if you know anything about the Cincinnati Reds, then you know you have to be an eternal optimist to keep rooting for them.

My Reds had a horrible season last year. I think they lost 102 games. But I'm always optimistic about a lot of young players. So I'm looking for good things from the Reds, maybe not World Series, but at least being competitive. So maybe we should take Dr. Walden's positive economic outlook with a grain of salt. Or maybe he's completely right, and we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For on the job, I'm Avery Thompson. I'll see you down the road.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sportsmen. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This week on the Sports Slice podcast, it's all about the NFL draft. And we've got a special guest. The director of the NFL's East West Shrine Bowl, Eric Galco, joins the Sports Slice podcast to break down what really matters when evaluating draft prospects. From hidden traits teams look for to the biggest mistakes franchises make to the players flying under the radar. This is the insight you won't hear anywhere else. If you want to understand the draft like an insider, you don't want to miss this episode.

Listen to the Sports Slice podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slice of Life 12 and TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. When a group of women discover they've all dated the same prolific con artist. They take matters into their own hands. I vowed. I will be his last target. He is not going to get away with this.

He's going to get what he deserves. We always say that trust your girlfriends. Listen to the girlfriends. Trust me, babe. On the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.