The Breakdown - Checking In On Last Week’s Crypto IPOs

Episode Date: September 15, 2025

Gemini and Figure Markets both raised significant cash in their IPOs last week, but their subdued trading debuts highlighted a cooler speculative environment compared to Circle’s explosive June listing. NLW unpacks what these IPOs signal about crypto market appetite, Bitcoin’s September sluggishness ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, and why gold and equities could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next move. The episode also covers Tether’s launch of USAT, a U.S. domestic market stablecoin, and the evolving battle for stablecoin dominance, plus the growing but increasingly muddled wave of corporate crypto treasury companies. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Monday, September 15th, and today we are checking in on the last week's crypto IPOs. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown podcast. All right, friends, well, as we discussed last week, the figure in Gemini IPOs were really going to be interesting bellwethers to get a sense of where markets are when it comes to their appetite for crypto. And in many ways, the Gemini IPO was a microcosm of the current state of

the crypto market. Friday's debut was strong, with Gemini pricing the IPO at $28, around 10% higher than the upper band of their estimate. The company raised $425 million, so it was an unambiguous success for them. Early speculators had the opportunity to do really well. About 30% of the IPO stock went to retail investors through platforms like Robin Hood. The first 10 minutes of trading saw the stock soar to a high of $45, pushing Gemini's market cap to $4.75 billion. The rest of the day was much less strong, with the stock going pretty much down only. The stock closed at $32, only slightly higher than the IPO price. Figure markets had a similar story during their IPO on Thursday. The IPO priced at 25 saw an initial pop to 37 and then trailed off to close Thursday at around 30. Day two saw a slight

revival and another pop at the open, but the stock still settled at $32 to close the week. Now, obviously neither result was bad for investors. Both companies raised a ton of cash, making it a successful week for them. But these results were definitely more subdued than the face-melting circle IPO in June. That stock was up almost 70% from its opening price across the first two trading days and more than quadrupled the IPO price. Now, many argue that the IPO was mispriced and that the investment banks that led the round should have been far more aggressive in their marks, but it was also true that the circle debut drew in a ton of speculative excess. It's much more difficult to make the case that speculation is still running super hot when Gemini is only up 15% from its IPO price.

Malays also seems to be settling in for Bitcoin. Last week saw a bit of a run-up with Bitcoin moving from 110,000 to 116 by Friday night, however momentum stalled out over the weekend and the prices started to reverse. There certainly hasn't been a big collapse or anything, but this isn't a kind of price action that suggests another run at all-time highs, at least in the short term. And if you're looking for explanations, you don't need to look all that far. This week will feature a Fed decision on Wednesday. Although the market is still pricing in 100% chance of a cut, there's always a hesitancy to fully commit to a position until the decision is made.

It's also important to remember that we are right in the middle of September, which is historically the worst month for Bitcoin. There are plenty of theories to why. In fact, if you go search this feed, I think I've done three or four shows over the years about this. There's anything from investment fund rebalancing to coming back and selling all the things that you held on to over the summer because you didn't want to push them into low liquidity. Whatever the case, though, September is historically bad for Bitcoin,

and so far it doesn't look like we're going to break that trend. Now, while Gemini's IPO did not suggest that the bull market is back in full swing, there are reasons to think the next move could be higher. Gold is up more than 9% in the past month and continues to make new all-time highs. Matthew Sigil, the head of digital assets research at Van Eck tweeted, every gold rally sparks the same pattern. Bitcoin breaks out bigger. The S&P 500 is also grinding higher week after week. There was a brief scare around AI CapEx earlier in the month, but the market seems to have sloughed that narrative off. Capital flows noted that labor market weakness also doesn't seem to be impacting stocks, tweeting, through every labor market print over the last month,

equities have shown resilience and continue to rally. The implication of this is that any normalization taking place in the labor market is still not significant enough to drag equities down. And although the market is insurging higher, there does seem to be a steady bid under Bitcoin. Last week, the Bitcoin ETF saw 2.3 billion worth of inflows with each day positive. This was the largest weekly total in almost two months. Total crypto market cap has crossed back over $4 trillion. There hasn't been a really notable move in altcoins, but rather a slow grind higher over the past week. All in all, crypto price action feels a little stalled out heading into the week,

but that isn't always the worst thing. Investor Mike Alfred commented, Bitcoin smells rate cuts. Bitcoin smells the fear of the kid analysts and chart squigglers who are sidelined because they decided to trade Mag 7, rate derivatives, TLT, and all kind of of irrelevant instruments while they were, quote, waiting for Bitcoin to do something. Next, moving on to some other stories inside the crypto markets, Tethers plans for world domination continue with the launch of their U.S. domestic market stablecoin. The token was announced on

Friday and will use the ticket USAT. It's being marketed as fully compliant with Anchorage Digital, partnering for issuance, and Cantor Fitzgerald, custodying for reserve. It should give the world's largest stablecoin their first set of rails into U.S. markets and institutions. Colin Butler, EVP, and Global Head of Markets and Megamatrix said, USAT is a hedge-and-expand move. It gives Tether a U.S. regulated rail for banks, fintechs, and corporates, while preserving U.S.DT's offshore reach. Stable CEO Matthew Tabbiner commented,

Tether has the size and scale to shape how regulation and infrastructure evolve in the U.S. This launch is symbolic of the systematic shift towards stable coins becoming everyday money. Alongside the launch of the token, Tether has appointed former White House advisor Bo Hines to serve as CEO of Tether U.S.AT. The entire project has a heavy undertone of patriotism and aligns strongly with the administration's goals. Tether's CEO, Paulo Arduino commented, Tether is already one of the largest holders of U.S. treasuries because we believe deeply in the enduring power of the dollar. USAT is our commitment to ensuring that the dollar not only remains dominant in the digital age, but thrives.

For many, this announcement signals that Circle no longer has a lock on the U.S. market. Mizuho Security senior analyst Dan Dolev commented, this is a testament to the fact that U.S.D.C. is more commoditized than people initially thought. That is exactly why we are cautious on Circle. And for Stablecoin issuers competing from a weaker position, Tether's entrance is very bad news. Rami Solomon, the co-founder of Stablecoin Standard, said, For other issuers, USAT sends a real signal that they had better have some captive distribution soon or their days are numbered.

Indeed, it seems the competition for the stablecoin market has truly kicked off with this launch. Butler of Megamatrix argued we're seeing the stable coin market fragment into three distinct sectors. Offshore, which is already dominated by Tether, the U.S. domestic market, where tether is looking to rival USDC's dominance, and the, quote, yield frontier of unregulated on-chain stable coins like Athena and Sky. He noted, from here, the share battle shifts to integrations, on and off-ramps, treasurer workflows, and liquidity depth. Others argued that privacy tech is going to play an increasingly important role in the competition as stable coins go mainstream.

On-chain privacy has been in a dismal state since the sanctioning of tornado cash, but many crypto projects are looking to reintroduce the concept. It's obvious that the appeal of stablecoins are limited without privacy, but the regulatory battle is still being fought. Daniel Brunson, the growth lead at human. Tech argued that privacy is the entire ballgame from here on out. He commented, if regulators lean too far into control, the whole point of stable coins get lost. But if they get it right, we'll finally have digital dollars that are trusted globally and still move with the speed and openness that tech was built for. That balance is what decides if stable coins become the backbone of a new financial system or just another tool of the old one. Ultimately, although there are

many ways to look at the story, the central one is simply that Tether now has a legal product in the U.S. Diego Monica, the chairman of Anchorage Digital tweeted, USAT by Tether is a major early win for the Genius Act, the largest stable coin issuer coming to the U.S. market with the highest level of oversight. Clear proof point that most crypto folks just wanted clear rules of the world. Now, the other big narrative simmering away is the rise and fall of crypto treasury companies. The past few weeks have been far more about the fall, with big names like micro-strategy, meta-planet, and bitmine deep in the red. For the smaller names, even those dabbling in all coin treasuries, the story is even worse. Still, the launch of

crypto treasury companies continues unabated. According to Michael Saylor, there are now 160 companies holding Bitcoin up from around 60 last year. Corporate Bitcoin holdings have now reached a million Bitcoin for the first time, up around 17% from last quarter. One of the latest names to launch their crypto treasury strategy is Clean Core Solutions, a small-cap green tech company. They're going with Dogecoin as their treasury asset of choice and have accumulated around 130 million so far. They aim to buy a billion doge tokens over the next 30 days. The narrative is getting so overextended that even David Bailey has some questions. Bailey, the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, was one of the largest proponents of Bitcoin

Treasury companies earlier in the year. His family office made massive gains on the theme, and he pivoted all of his attention to Nakamoto, which seeks to put a Bitcoin Treasury company on every global stock exchange. On Sunday, he posted, the entire Treasury sector is being tested and rightfully so. Toxic financing failed all coins rebranded as Treasury companies, too many failed companies with no plan or vision. It's totally muddled the narrative. The Treasury Company moniker itself is confusing. The Bitcoin Treasury Company of the fiat system is a bank. Today we are building Bitcoin banks. If you're afraid of

that term, call them Bitcoin financial institutions. The core strategy is to build and monetize your balance sheet. If you do it well, you will grow your assets over time. If you do it poorly, you will trade at a discount and be consumed by someone who can do it better. If you're short, Bitcoin banks is a category. What you're really shorting is Bitcoin's role as a primitive in our financial and monetary system. You do not want to make that bet. What started then with Michael sailor's core strategy of accumulating Bitcoin as a corporate asset has transformed into a speculative game. Bailey is arguing that investors are no longer looking for safe long-term strategies now that the all-coin companies are taking over. Jeff Park, the CIO of ProCap Bitcoin

tweeted, calling it now in the next bare market, every smart all-coin treasury company will adopt a 10% plus Bitcoin treasury allocation policy. For that is the natural order by Darwinism. Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital has a very different view of the market. On Thursday, he told CNBC, Bitcoin's out of consolidation right now. partly because you're seeing a lot of these treasury companies and other coins taking their shot. Galaxy Digital is also one of the lead investors in a new Salana Treasury company, so Novogratz is absolutely talking his book. Still, in his view, these all-coin deals are, quote,

bringing energy into the crypto space and, quote, bringing money into the crypto space. He added, and Bitcoin is kind of going sideways a little bit. I think while these other ecosystems are having their moment, we probably have another big surge up towards the end of the year. Novogratz is far from bearish on Bitcoin, saying that it is, quote, going nowhere but up over time. He just thinks there's going to be a little more competition over the next year.

few months. That is the story where we start the week. For now, though, that is going to do it for today's breakdown. Appreciate you guys listening, as always. Until next time, be safe and take care of each other. Peace.