The Breakdown - It's Actually Happening: The USA Gets a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Episode Date: March 8, 2025

NLW and Scott Melker count down the five most important stories in crypto this week, including the profound news that the US is actually getting a strategic bitcoin reserve. NLW argues that the way they did the BSR actually solves many of the major concerns with it. Sponsored by: Ledger Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors The Breakdown podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world’s crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now on Ledger.com. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Friday, March 7th, and that means it's time for the Friday 5. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link of the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. All right, friends, well, we have a Friday. 5 with Scott Melker as usual. However, I had a commitment this morning on Friday when we were normally supposed to do our live stream and so we recorded this on Thursday afternoon. Now, of course,

we were sitting there hoping, just hope and beyond hope that there was not going to be any big announcements in between when the show got finished recording and when it went live. And of course, about an hour after we finished, Donald Trump signed the executive order creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. So before we get into that recorded episode, which as you will note has no mention of the SBR, I wanted to pop on and, of course, do a little bit of an intro, specifically focused on that. And honestly, the TLDR here is that somehow, after pissing almost everybody off with the way that they were talking about it last Sunday on Truth Social, frankly, they nailed this. This is the version of this opportunity that I think had the absolute most

support was the least controversial, the most coherent, the least like the government buying your bags, the most actually being strategic. I mean, you just really have to hand it to them. On Twitter, Crypto and AIsR, David Sachs tweeted, just a few minutes ago, President Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The reserve will be capitalized with Bitcoin owned by the federal government that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. This means it will not cost taxpayers a dime. It is estimated that the U.S. government owns about 200,000 Bitcoin, however, there's never been a complete audit. The EO directs a full accounting of the federal government's digital asset holdings. The U.S. will not sell any Bitcoin

deposited into the reserve. It will be kept as a store of value. The reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency, often called digital gold. Premature sales of Bitcoin have already cost U.S. taxpayers over $17 billion in lost value. Now, the federal government will have a strategy to maximize the value of its holdings. The secretaries of Treasury and commerce are authorized to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin, provided that those strategies have no incremental costs on American taxpayers. In addition, the executive order establishes a U.S. digital asset stockpile consisting of digital assets other than Bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings. The government will not acquire additional assets for the stockpile beyond those obtained

through forfeiture proceedings. The purpose of the stockpile is responsible stewardship of the government's digital assets under the Treasury Department. So basically, what we have here is a strategic Bitcoin reserve, that is just for Bitcoin, and separately a stockpile for everything else. There is no new assets being purchased, so no potential grumbling from taxpayers who don't want their money spent on that, but just sort of the obvious and simple notion that these things are likely to go up in value over time, and so probably we should just sit on them. What's so funny about this is that this is the very slim BSR that we were all thinking about earlier in the year. And it kind of took a whole bunch of weird expanded versions, for people to realize that this really was the right fit for the time.

The text of the executive order itself is also something to behold. Section 1 reads, Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin Protocol permanently caps the total supply of Bitcoin at 21 million coins and has never been hacked. As a result of its scarcity and security, Bitcoin is often referred to as digital gold. Because there is a fixed supply of Bitcoin, there is a strategic advantage to being among the first nations to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The United States government, currently holds a significant amount of BTC but has not implemented a policy to maximize its strategic position as a unique store of value in the global financial system. Just as it is in our country's interest to thoughtfully manage national ownership and control of any

other resource, our nation must harness not limit the power of digital assets for our prosperity. Nick Carter said surreal feeling reading this paragraph, courtesy of the President of the United States of America. Practically speaking, Matt Hogan from Bitwise, wrote up what he thought the impacts of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would actually be. One, he said, it dramatic. dramatically reduces the likelihood the U.S. government will someday ban Bitcoin. Two, dramatically increases the likelihood that other nations will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves as well. Three, accelerates the speed at which other nations will consider establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves because it creates a short-term window for nations to front-run potential

additional buying by the U.S. Four, makes it much harder for institutions from national account advisor platforms to quasi-governmental agencies like the IMF, to position Bitcoin is somehow dangerous or inappropriate to hold. Dan McArdle, the co-founder at Masari, had this reflection. Bay's case was an EO that said don't sell the seized coins. What we got is don't sell seized coins, we can add more BTC, we can't get attacked for spending taxpayer money, all coins are different and we're not going to add to those, here's why Bitcoin is a unique store of value. Nick Carter, who, by the way, as you remember, had been very skeptical of this.

He's written an article about why we shouldn't have a strategic Bitcoin Reserve. He wrote, announcement couldn't have gone better. Campaign promise kept. Bitcoin Reserve clearly distinguished from altcoin stockpile. Bitcoin gets official USG seal of approval, no other coin does, no taxpayer dollars spent to acquire coin, so no backlash, future acquisition of coins likely left to Congress as it should be. Bonus, and this is a fun bonus and why I'm reading it to you, if Satoshi really is the NSA, as I suspect, and they have a million Bitcoin sitting on a dusty hard drive in Fort Mead,

this EO just ensured they don't ever sell those. Now, somehow, because we literally can't help but get out over our skis, when the EO was, quote-unquote, just this, the price of Bitcoin started going down. Rasmussen, the head of research at Bitwise, had this relevant comment when it came to that. The endgame, he wrote, was never the U.S. government buys all the world's Bitcoin. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve means, other countries will buy Bitcoin. Wealth managers have no excuse. Financial institutions have no excuse. Pensions and endowments have no excuse. Fear of the U.S. selling is gone. The U.S.

will likely buy more. likelihood of states buying just went up. Probability to the government outlaws Bitcoin is definitively zero. This changes everything. Zoom out. More to the point, Avisichel Garg, of Electric Capital wrote, Who the hell sells the news of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve? Anyways, as you can probably tell from my tone, I'm extremely enthusiastic about how this played out. I think it threads an extremely difficult needle that ultimately ends up with the U.S. government committing to caring about and officially claiming its ownership of Bitcoin. It's trite at this point to say, if you had asked us two years ago, could we believe it?

But boy, how fast things have changed. Now with that, let's throw you back over to the rest of the Friday 5. again recorded before we knew anything about the SBR. You're going to bring on NLW right now. It's actually trick Thursday, March 6th at 3.30 p.m. You and I had commitments, but decided we were going to Friday 5 at on Thursday. Yeah, there's enough going on this week. It was a good one not to miss, I think.

Yeah, we couldn't miss this one at all. I think a lot of big things happening is just as usual now. Big things get lost in the insanity of the news. cycle. What have been the biggest news in the world a year or two ago in crypto becomes a footnote. Yep. I mean, there are so many things that are not on our list. It's like SEC settling cases left and right and closing them out and, you know, all sorts of things. And of course, Sam Bangman-Fried's prison interview with Tucker Carlson, it just literally came out of nowhere. Yeah. Someone else over there in the comments can watch and let us know what, if anything, was said that is of interest.

All I know is that he said, he doesn't think he's guilty at all. He clearly should know remorse and apparently is thriving in the muffin economy, trading muffins with ditty. You got to have a hustle. If you're going to be in there a long time, you got to have something to do. The first story, though, that's worth discussing here, the effort to kill IRS crypto rule clears U.S. Senate hurdle. So obviously, this is that rule that was going to effectively view defy as brokers.

was going to be impossible to comply with anyways, but would have effectively killed a lot of business in crypto in the United States. But I think what's notable here is it took a hell of a lot of Democrats getting on board to pass this through the Senate before it heads on to the House. Go ahead and attack this for us. So, I mean, so first of all, this one is a little special, I think, because as we've talked about here before, this was the battle that really galvanized the crypto policy set in Washington.

When this was snuck into the infrastructure bill as a pay-for provision at the last minute, they thought they were going to kind of sneak something over. Crypto noticed. They thought it was a mistake at first because how could they be so stupid or so malicious? When they realized that they actually were that malicious, it was specifically the Treasury Department, the Washington crypto folks realized just what level of antagonist we had in certain parts of D.C. This is obviously way before Operation chokepoint or anything like that. And so, you know, ultimately what happened is we held up the proceedings for a meaningful period of time.

They finally pushed it through. And so this rule was always kind of looming, but, you know, it hadn't got into effect yet. The fact that that's now reversed great from a symbolic unwinding the last administration perspective, what's even better, though, is that 18 Democrat senators voted to repeal this, which is more than the 12 who voted to repeal SAB-121 last year. 70 senators voted in favor of this, this repeal, which means that, you know, even though this didn't have to go through kind of a filibuster, it could overcome that with the numbers that it had. So really, really positive to see that many Democrats stepping across the aisle for this one. I think it's a hopeful indicator of, you know, room for bipartisanship when it actually comes to crypto policy, sensible crypto policy. I completely forgot until you just reminded me that this was that one or two sentences in the infrastructure bill that effectively froze Biden's entire infrastructure bill for a week or two. Because we mentioned something about crypto. It was the first time we were really important.

Yep. Yeah. Chuck Schumer could not freaking believe it. It was insane. Yeah, I completely forgot about that. Yeah. But as you said, I mean, just huge that this is even a hint at a bipartisan future for the crypto industry, which I think anyone who's in it understands it should be. This should not be a political issue. Things like this are just common sense. Yep. Totally. No, I think it's very, very optimistic. 18 is more than my, my sort of optimistic thoughts here. And through a different government for the second story, IMF asks El Salvador to stop public sector Bitcoin buys for one point four billion dollar deal. Now you remember, obviously, that there was news that the IMF had some demands around the Bitcoin policies of El Salvador before

approving this loan, which was already a move in the right direction because the IMF was completely denying them when they had a Bitcoin policy in the first place. But now it seemed that it's not as simple for the IMF as eliminating the Chivo wallet or saying that vendors don't necessarily need to accept Bitcoin. This is the IMF outright saying no more buying Bitcoin. for the nation of El Salvador. Of course, immediately El Salvador announces more Bitcoin purchases, gives I-F assurances. So it seems like the IMF tried to pull a fast one here at the end of the deal.

Am I reading that right? Yeah, it seems like it. I mean, look, the IMF has been pretty consistent around arguing that this was a destabilizing force and not wanting it. It looked like the deal that was going to get done was, to your point, the restrictions that were changed were basically removing Bitcoin as legal tender, not forcing merchants to accept it. And it was a good deal basically for El Salvador because it wasn't even sort of, you know, Bitcoin wasn't being all that used in that way at that time. You know,

when El Salvador even started negotiating with the IMF here, there were some, I think, in the crypto industry who were fairly bummed out because they saw the Bitcoin strategy as a way to not be locked into the IMF, you know, World Bank kind of system. I think that that was probably unrealistic, right? I, you know, El Salvador still has a very long history of, you know, economic marginalization and conflict and challenge that is not going to be solved fast. And if you're the leadership of a country, you got to take the resources that are available to you. So, you know, look, I hope that they're able to kind of thread this needle a little bit, get back to that original deal, which it seemed like they were going to have. Certainly, they're not going to just kind

to casually stop doing what they're doing. But I think it's a good proxy to watch for, even if you don't care about El Salvador, for how kind of global institutions are interacting with Bitcoin in this particular moment. What I find when I look at this is how $1.4 billion is a rounding error in the United States daily debt payments. And it's such a big deal for a country like El Salvador just for some perspective. Yeah, it's absolutely wild. I think that El Salvador will find a way here. It seems like Buckele is married to his Bitcoin purchases and has no intention of stopping.

And I do think that they will find a way. But to your point, there's going to be a lot of countries in the future as Bitcoin becomes more mainstream who are going to adopt certain kinds of strategies, but also need money from the IMF or World Bank. And this could be sort of the precedent for all of those future deals. Yep. I mean, you know, these are this set of institutions, the focus hasn't really. been on them yet in this particular election cycle or this administration. But, you know, as the

unwind of U.S. global presence happens, there's going to be at some point a focus on these things and what their role is and what their engagement is. So I don't think that we've heard the last about the IMF and the World Bank in this particular administration. Hello, friends. I am thrilled to share that Ledger is once again partnering and sponsoring with the breakdown. Many of you know, but for those of you who don't, Ledger is the most secure hardware wallet for your crypto and logins. It's trusted by 7 million users and secures 20% of the world's digital assets. What's more, Ledger is a lot more than wallets. Over the recent years, they've built a comprehensive ecosystem of products and services,

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what they have available to you. So thanks, once again, to Ledger for sponsoring the show. There was a comment yesterday from someone at the IMF basically saying that the global engine of trade that has driven the global economy for the past however many decades is over based on Trump's policies and tariffs, which is our next story, which is basically markets and turmoil. Not that they're necessarily crashing, but every single day we have a new narrative effectively from Trump. The tariffs are on. The tariffs are off. The tariffs are 25. They're 10. It doesn't include cars.

You choose it. And every single day we have a new narrative. But clearly the world is preparing for an environment where the United States isn't effectively at the center and bailing everybody out all the time. Germany loosening historically tight policy to raise more money for the military and for infrastructure building. I mean, that's the last country on Earth you would ever think would be doing that. It shows you just how much necessity there is.

United States is going to put these tariffs on and pull back from the globalism that the world has been so useful, used to. But obviously, I mean, you know, NASDAQ is nearing a correction now. That's not something you thought you'd be hearing at the beginning of Trump's term. Obviously, we know that crypto largely and certainly the SMP trading below where they were at the election when Trump was actually elected. And you even have investment professionals saying, time to sell and run into CDs and bonds and things that are a safer bet. So right now we have a lot of volatility and more than anything, a lot of uncertainty. Yeah. I mean, look, I think a number of things are happening. One, markets this week, I think, started to grok the idea that maybe Trump, that they are not Trump's

highest God when it comes to his policy objectives, that Trump two is going to be a little bit different than Trump one in terms of where the emphasis is. Certainly Scott Besson has been on the talk show circuit, pretty clearly emphasizing this, that Wall Street's going to be just fine and they know Wall Street's going to be fine, and that's not where their concern is, and that's not where their focus is. I think a little bit of what we saw this week

was Wall Street realizing that they're not the bell of the ball quite as much as they thought and that they can't just throw a hissy fit and get Trump to stop. I think that there's been a broader recognition that dude seems pretty serious about tariffs. It isn't just a negotiation strategy, but at the same time,

a lot of the volatility comes from the fact that it is also sort of a negotiation strategy clearly. I think one thing that the whole world is getting used to and trying to calibrate for is Trump, and by extension, his administration, are very clearly comfortable in chaos. They thrive in chaos.

They think that the best way for them to negotiate, get leverage is within the context of chaos. They think it's to their advantage. And so sewing chaos is literally a core strategy. And obviously, you know, for markets, that's very hard. I think that for crypto folks, at some point, we're going to remember that we are constitutionally the most suited to chaos of anyone in any sort of market. And we're going to stop behaving like such little, you know, weanies and being scared

of things. And, you know, but of course, we talk about this a lot too. You know, it's now much harder to read the crypto industry and market movements because the crypto industry means about 50 different things, right? There's participants of all different stripes and 15. types, you know, and it, you know, it could be that the long-term hoddlers are just, you know, laughing at the, at the chaos because they're not selling anyways, and they're just looking for buying opportunities. But there's a whole lot more market participants now than there, than there used

to be who are not in that deep. And frankly, the crypto industry is just inextricably tied to Trump now. You used to be able to stay with ties to correlated to markets or correlated to certain kind of news. It's just correlated to Trump's mood and his tweets. And what he decided. to say on any given day. And that's really been the case since the election, but certainly since he launched the Trump token. To be frank, I mean, you talk about people of all kinds and stripes. We're going to get into the reserve. But first, we obviously have to mention the summit. As of right now, this is the guest list, which actually has added Falcon X and Shane Copland from Polymarket. This obviously on the crypto side, there's a number of regulators that will be there.

But this is the all shapes and sizes that you mentioned, right? We have the, sailors and the David Bailey is on the Bitcoin side, but then you've got VCs across the board, builders of different protocols, and of course, every exchange CEO that you can find. This is not a group that wants to sit out a table and hang out. No, it's interesting. This list is a pretty good one. If this is sort of like who shows up. Yeah, especially because one of the big sort of, you know, sub-stories throughout this week is like,

the number of fake lists floating around has been, you know, crazy. How many times left in the breaking news that CZ is going to be there is just blown my mind. Yeah. Well, no, the lightest that I heard is that that Sam's actually going to interview Diddy from the White House as part of this summit, you know. Biggie and Tupac are going to be there. As their keynote. No, but look, the list is a pretty representative cross-section of U.S.

crypto stakeholders now. I think that there's obviously more that could be involved. but, you know, this list shows consideration and thoughtfulness, I think, in terms of who needs to be at the table. It is notable, and it's worth kind of reflecting on the fact that the White House had planned to create a standing council, and there was so much infighting in the industry that they were like, let's not do that. Let's just do these summits instead. Now, look, you know, councils are only about one degree more serious than summits anyway, so I don't think it's It's like a huge loss in terms of practical impact on policy.

But it is notable that we couldn't keep our crap together enough to, you know, secure the bag of our. I mean, you put, like, how many times in the history of mankind have you put 25 to 30 big egos in a room with a four-hour time limit and actually gotten anything productive done? Yeah. It's clearly rubber stamping, you know, but. But that means the question. is knowing that this is optics, what are they rubber stamping and what are they coming into this with? Because the real story here, obviously, is that Trump trothed on Sunday. I think that's the term for truth socialing. I think you're truthing. He truthed that we were getting a crypto strategic

reserve. First time he said that, but didn't say Bitcoin strategic reserve. Didn't say strategic stockpile, but said reserve. That would include XRP, Ada, and Solana. And then as an afterthought, of course, also Bitcoin and Ethereum, that got so much pushback from Bitcoiners, so much backlash that we have articles in, you know, Bloomberg about it. But Lutnik had to basically come out this week and say, oh, no, no, no, no, it's a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. We love all coins. They're special, but we have another place for them.

You'll find all about it on Friday. So that's why this meeting is such a big deal, because he opened his mouth and said, you've got answers for you and it's coming from it. Yeah. He also made it pretty clear that it's a very weird communication because if those other coins are now in this reserve, that'll be directly contradicting what Lutnik has more than intimated now. He basically says that Bitcoin is different than the other stuff or the other stuff is

going to be treated favorably but differently. So I don't know, it's anyone's guess at this point. But Bitcoiners who are scared, I think, can wrestle. little easier today than they did a couple days ago. I think so, but it begs the question after yet another sort of muddled announcement and lack of clarity, what is the expectation for the summit? So what would be considered a positive result and what would be considered a negative result? Because first, from a purely priced perspective, we know that Bitcoin or any asset actually

reacts to expectations and not to reality. So it's what happens versus the expectations. How high should our hopes be? And as an industry, are we going to be wildly disappointed at the end of this thing? Yeah, I don't know. It's very hard because people, you know, I don't know what people are expecting now. I think if you read the Lutnik comments, you have to expect your base case is now a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve exactly as we, you know, ignore the entire last week since that true social

post. Like, it's exactly what we thought it was going to be before that. More evidence to that is the fact that David Sachs earlier. was tweeting about how much the U.S. government's Bitcoin would have been worth if they hadn't sold it. So it feels like that's the strategy. I don't know what impact it's going to have on price. It kind of looks to me like Bitcoin's creeping up, assuming that this is going to be the case. I don't know that it's going to set things, you know, rocketing. I think that maybe it maybe will just make people feel a little less volatile because, you know, although we had a lot of sort

of side quests and detours, you know, we ended up in the same place that we thought we were going to, but it's very hard to say. Yeah, here's that tweet just for those who missed it. He made a point today before his summit tomorrow to point out what a bad mistake it was for the United States government to have sold the Bitcoin that they held, which certainly feels like tipping their hat to a strategy of not selling any more Bitcoin and calling that the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, which is what we thought was going to happen from the very beginning. Yeah, it's a lot of distraction to get to the same place we started. It really is. It does then obviously make you wonder what's going to happen with XRP, Salana, and Cardano, which have been specifically named. I think the sovereign wealth fund would be a great place for a bunch of all coins that the United States wants to speculate on that are not necessarily reserve assets. And I don't know if you saw some rumor flying around X today that I can't confirm it, but I know that Anatoly had sort of spoken to it from Salana that Brad Garlinghouse and Ripple literally. lobbied for Salana to be included in the reserve to make XRP seem more reasonable in the reserve. Yep. That surprised you?

No, they're clever, and it's a clever strategy. They're good. Did you see they also ripple, well, there's a new non-for-profit national council to educate Americans on crypto, and now apparently people are saying it's fully funded by Ripple? I did not see that. So we'll have some more to talk about later. Anyways, the final story here, in case you missed it, I see why am I. Emmer announces formation of nonpartisan congressional ripto caucus.

We've got so many caucuses and committees and every regulator and legislator for our industry. It's unbelievable. We couldn't get a single caucus before. Now we're caucus in left and right. But notably here, this is Tom Emmer and Democrat, Richard Torres, who we know is a big fan of our industry. but still, a rising star on the Democratic side of the aisle, yet more bipartisanship for a congressional crypto-pocalypse. Yep.

So the thing that's notable or good about this one is that this is explicitly a voting block, right? This is not just a working group or something like that. This is meant to be when people are debating policy, they can say the Cryptococcus is voting in this way, right? That's what this means. And so it's a ratcheting up. of the bipartisan collaboration here to say that this is a group that are going to vote in a particular way on these things. It's a way for, you know, I mean, the thing that's going to be

most notable to watch is which Democrats join this. I think that's the key question. It makes total sense that Richie is out here leading this. You know, he's obviously rising star and is very independently minded and a great sort of representative for that side of the aisle, I think, when it comes to crypto issues. But really positive overall. Look, it's the people who are actually in Washington tasked with doing the job who historically aren't always doing the job are seem to be showing up to play when it comes to crypto policy, even if the media stories aren't focused on that right now because there's so much, you know, other juicy craft to focus on instead.

Yeah, finding signal and noise right now is so difficult, but all of the signal to me is still massive tailwinds, especially if you just zoom out 12 months ago or six months ago where we were and where we are now. It's nothing but good news. Maybe there's some chaos, as you said, which could be the strategy. But for the industry itself outside of all of that in a vacuum, nothing but tailwinds. Yep. It's sounding still that you can have that group of people heading into the White House in a day to meet with the president of the United States in 2025.

Things shift fast, man. The worthy thing to remember about why some of the political process stuff matters, particularly in Congress, Nick Carter, I think, had a tweet earlier this week when he was talking about the Bitcoin Reserve, where he was basically like, for people who are excited about this, how do you feel imagining President AOC on January 21st, 20209, with her finger over the sell button of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, you know? Like, that's why these things are often a little bit more complex. And you actually, messy as though, messy though it may be, you want it to go through actual policy

channels and have a strong foundation. Yeah, I mean, how does, you know, the social. It turning blue in two years and Elizabeth Warren being the head of the financial committee again, sound to you. Because long shot, but could happen, right? So take nothing for granted. They've got to get this done now. I think that's all we got for today. I think we covered all the stories. Hopefully they don't change dramatically by the time this is published. But I think all eyes will still be on the summit when that happens. So we'll have a lot to talk about next week. Absolutely. Thanks, man. See you then. Thank you.