The Breakdown - Marty Bent on the Macro Fires on the Horizon

Episode Date: December 26, 2019

Marty Bent is the author of one of the most popular daily Bitcoin newsletters and co-host of Tales From The Crypt. In this end of year interview with The Breakdown, he talks about the macro context - from trade wars to pressure on the fed to continue and expand the QE experiment to global instability - and how it is painting in stark colors the need for tools like bitcoin. 

Welcome back to The Breakdown, an everyday analysis breaking down the most important stories in Bitcoin, crypto, and beyond, with your host, NLW. The Breakdown is distributed by CoinDesk. Welcome back to the Breakdown, end-of-year extravaganza. So today I am thrilled to share an interview with Marty Bent. Marty is one of the most prolific content creators in Bitcoin. He has a daily newsletter of the same name that I think is just the perfect example of the one thought per day medium. He has a podcast that he does weekly called Tales from the Crypt with Matt O'Dell. He's just all over the place all the time. And so I was super excited to get his take

on the year. And a lot of what he talked about echoed some of maybe what we heard from Peter McCormick earlier in the week, which is this idea that there is this storm brewing, right? And you feel it in terms of this ongoing tension around a trade war with China. You feel it in the inescapable reality that central bankers don't know how they're going to get us out of the QE thing that we've become addicted to. You see it in global discontent. And it creates a very different and important context for Bitcoin. So that's what this interview is about. I hope you enjoy it. And if you do, please subscribe to the breakdown so you don't miss any of this great content. But with that, let's dive into this awesome interview with Marty Bent. Here we go. All right. I am here with Marty Bent. You know, so,

So one of the things that I've talked about a lot is how interesting it is that in Bitcoin and in the larger crypto landscape, these independent media voices are shaping so much of the conversation. And I've often tweeted that I think that when it comes to daily newsletters, just Marty is the absolute peak of that format, the one thought medium. And obviously, you do so much more content than just that. But it seems like it was like a monster year for you. I'm really, really excited to have you here to.

to help us recap and look forward. Dan, I can't thank you enough. It was very flattering. It has been a great year. There's never nothing to write about in the world of Bitcoin, currencies, and geopolitics. It's been a fun year. A lot has been going on.

Like we were just discussing pre-record. It's been a big year for us personally here at TFTC, and then a big year for Bitcoin in the world at large, too. Yeah, so, I mean, we were just talking about this, but I'd love to hear, you know, first, I guess, just what you think the narrative of 2019 was, right? Like, when the story is told of this year, what are we going to look back on it as? So, 2019, I think, in terms of Bitcoin, it will be looked back as, like, a huge setting of the stage of the geopolitical landscape that leads to fundamental headwinds that will push people towards Bitcoin. So there was not, I mean, there's a lot of great things that went on in and around Bitcoin, particularly this year. But I think the biggest theme of 2019 is what's happening outside of Bitcoin in the world.

And it seems like the fourth turning is hitting into high gear here as we have protests, jumping or popping up around the world. We have the UK leaving Europe. We have President Trump yelling at Chairman Powell here in the States. We have an impeachment process here in the states. There are banks going down across the world, whether it be Lebanon, Turkey, Argentina. And so 2019 to me is just a huge setup fundamentally for a, again, a headwin into Bitcoin because people will seek out alternatives as the geopolitical landscape gets frothier, I believe, at least.

Yeah, I couldn't agree more. And I think that it's been interesting to see at least in, well, not just in the U.S., but on the global stage, like, because there's so much going on and because Bitcoin is now a decade in, it's unignorable, at least as an alternative that's sitting there, right? And I feel like we saw this a lot with the hearings around Libra is, you know, sure, most of the questions were uneducated or people just using their kind of bully pulpits to harangue Facebook and Zuckerberg about other. things. But it did give us a much clearer picture of which set of politicians of the U.S. are actually thinking about Bitcoin in particular, but the ecosystem in general and who we might ally with, basically. Yeah, no, that goes right into like the big theme of 2019 is geopolitics and basically frottiness on the global. on the global stage, right? And this year, Bitcoin sort of entered the conversation. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies entered the conversation

and they're at the table now. So like you just mentioned, the Lieber hearings and other hearings that have happened throughout the years of, I believe, when Melton went to went to Capitol Hill to pitch Bitcoin as well. That happened this year, I believe. I'm pretty sure that was this year. But, yeah, so it seems like that's on Capitol Hill.

And then outside, we also have central bankers seem to be posturing like they need to make a statement about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. So they've been forced to put out an opinion on the subject. And again, as the macro landscape sort of develops into a perfect fundamental headwind for Bitcoin, it's also entering the conversation and slowly but surely going mainstream, seeping into the psyche of the masses. Yeah. No, I think it's been, I couldn't agree more.

I think it's been a really massive year when it comes to stage setting, which I guess gets me into the second question, which is, you know, what is it setting the stage for? What do you think when you look out across 2020? And, you know, you can go as big, don't feel constrained, you know, to, you don't have to make a huge macro prediction or anything like that. But, you know, what do you think, what do you think 2020 is going to look like, I guess? insanity. I mean, we have the election going on. We have the Fed currently

issuing or printing more money than they did at any point in QE other than the initial bailout of Lehman. We've got the Bitcoin halving happening around May and on top of that, I mean, I don't see any of the chaos that's going on in the world persisting anytime soon. So I expect that to heat up and it'll be interesting. interesting to see how how Bitcoin is affected throughout all this. I'm honestly, I don't know how Bitcoin will play into the larger scene in 2020 because I go back and forth to whether or not it's short to medium term, bullish or bearish headwind like we're seeing.

We saw earlier this morning, it was reports coming out of finance, sort of launching Ninja K-Y-C on their customers when they're trying to, withdrawal their Bitcoin. I can see that becoming more of a thing as governments try to crack down on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin in particular, as it becomes more of a threat to them. But on top of that, and then the other side of me is like, oh, do they really have time to focus on this as the world is immersed in chaos, trade wars, Brexit's, marches, and whatnot.

Yeah, it's actually interesting. One of the questions that I ask sometimes, where I think about sometimes, is whether it might be a good thing to, like, to get, there's a kind of hiding in plain sight effect right now, right? Where although even with Bitcoin figuring into these hearings, even with Patrick McHenry saying it's an unstoppable force, it still feels like. both the context that you're describing is so much bigger that the politicians who could be truly antagonistic don't seem to take the time to.

And then again, even within the context of just digital currencies, the big baddy slot is now Facebook. And maybe that'll change to China when the digital yuan comes out. But do you think that there's actual benefits to Bitcoin for its staying kind of, the perception of it being less powerful than we all know what it can and will be. Yeah, to this day, but one of my favorite quotes on Tales from the Crypt from Bitcoin Sign Guys that all coins, Fed coins, and all these alternatives to Bitcoin act as sort of cover for Bitcoin as it confuses regulators and those in charge as to what to really pay attention to.

So the more that Congress is focused on Libra and shableness. tackling them, the better off that is for Bitcoin, in my opinion. You only have so many resources and that they're allocated towards fighting a corporate coin, all for that. Yeah. That's kind of how I feel, too. Well, you know, what's for sure, I guess, is it's going to be interesting. And I can't really see it getting calm anytime soon. There's certainly no outcome of the U.S. election, for example, that's going to just make things chill for a while. You know, the stakes are raised. So it'll be interesting to see what happens.

But listen, I really appreciate your time. Like I said at the beginning, for those of you who aren't subscribed to Tim Marty Bend yet and who don't listen to the podcast, I highly, highly encourage it. Well, Nathaniel, thank you. And I will leave with one small prediction for 2020. All right. I love it. Specifically, I think that, I mean, as we're already seeing with the Layer 1 and

Caruso announcements in recent months, I think we're going to see, which is actually very bullish long term for Bitcoin and Bitcoin in the U.S., I believe, just a migration, not a migration, but a surge of mining in the States. Yeah, no, I agree. I think that that's, it's something that I've been wanting to dig more into on the show, because it, you know, you kind of have this thing where you start to see patterns, and it seems It's jumped out of the realm of just like one random action, right? Yes, yes.

It seems to have gained some traction in the U.S. at the end of this year. And I think that'll continue in the 2020. Well, you know, if the U.S. Congress doesn't like all of Libra's activity heading over to Switzerland, and they can support the mining, mining Bitcoin efforts right here at home, right? Well, that's actually why I'm bullish on Bitcoin in America long term because the people who are most incentivized to get into mining in America are the oil and gas companies, and they have some of the biggest lobby points.

So if they are able to benefit from this, and they have very strong representation on Capitol Hill, I think that bodes well for Bitcoin long term. Yeah, it's interesting. I guess I'll leave with one thought too, because this kind of reflects something that I think about. I think about a lot, like there's this triangle of the people, corporates, and government, right? And when it comes to something like Bitcoin, which is this force, it's really like which two are against the other one. You know, I mean, theoretically, I guess you could have all three a line, but that never is going to happen.

And so I think that part of exactly what you're saying is that if you have this big, you know, personal kind of consumer base of advocates, and then you can, and get corporates, you know, or some segment of powerful corporations to also be interested in Bitcoin. It creates a much stronger force vis-a-vis the ability for government to come in and try to disrupt the flow of things. You know, it's one thing if it's just, like if oil and gas didn't want Bitcoin mining, because it threatened their interest, that's a much harder fight, right? Because then you have corporates and governments align. But if we can co-op some of that energy, I think there's a lot of power there. And I'm very, very optimistic on that, becoming a reality because the problem with excess gas and excess reserves that need to be vented and flared for these oil and gas companies

is massive and it's something they need to solve. And they are highly incentivized to solve as quickly as possible. And Bitcoin helps solve their problem. Yeah, I would love, I feel like, God, I, I, I could just talk about this stuff all day. But one of the things that I think has been really cool in 2019 is I called it like, it's not exactly the right framing, but I called it like the productization of Bitcoin maximalism or just Bitcoin like focus in general where, you know, it's not just a bunch of

people on Twitter who are talking about. You're seeing Bitcoin-only businesses, right? You're seeing the river financials of the world and they give Bitcoins in these companies that are really honing in and focusing on this one particular ecosystem. And I feel like part of what you're describing, too, is there's been so many things that are, you know, theoretical, right, in terms of Bitcoin creating, solving problems as it relates to excess energy and energy capture, that the more that we see, the more that we take those conversations out of the realm of theoretical and just get to watch how companies try to take advantage of them and exploit them, I think the better for everyone it is. completely agree and it's the beauty of bitcoin it's just the incentives are so perfect that it finds a way to help everybody out it seems love it all right marty thank you so much for hanging out and uh everyone who's listening go go go subscribe to tales from the crypt right now

thanks nathaniel's been a pleasure thank you for doing what you do as well you bad man cheers