The Breakdown - Trump Doubles Down on Crypto and Pledges to Commute Ross Ulbricht

Episode Date: May 29, 2024

Former President Donal Trump continues to speak about crypto at campaign events. Recently he also pledged to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. Today's Show Brought To You By Ledger - 5% to Bitcoin Developers When You Buy https://shop.ledger.com/pages/bitcoin-hardware-wallet Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, May 28th, and today we are talking about presidential candidate Donald Trump doubling down on crypto. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it. Give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. friends, excited to be back with you after the long weekend. Although today we are going to be a little bit shorter than usual, kind of an abbreviated episode. I am racing off to the airport. I will be down

at consensus this week, but I didn't want to leave without an episode. And the big story that I wanted to discuss is that former President Donald Trump has continued to push the narrative that he is this cycle's crypto candidate. Shortly before an appearance at the Libertarian Party's National Convention on Saturday, he posted on Truth Social. I am very positive and open-minded to cryptocurrency companies and all things related to this new and burgeoning industry. Our country must be the leader in the field. There is no second place. Crooked Joe Biden, the worst president in the history of our country, wants it to die a slow and painful death. That will never happen with me. Always one for mincing words is former President Trump. Now, Trump continued the pro-crypto

rhetoric during his convention speech, stating, I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of Bitcoin will be made in the U.S. not driven overseas. I will support the right to self-custody. To the nation's 50 million crypto holders, I say this. With your vote, I will keep Elizabeth and her goons away from your Bitcoin. and I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency. And just to really throw the icing on the cake, Trump also promised to commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbrick down to time served, pledging to free Ross on day one of his presidency. Ross has served 11 years of a double life sentence with no possibility of parole.

The main point of Trump's appearance at the convention was to ask for the libertarian nomination. He opened his speech by stating, I think you should nominate me or at least vote for me and we should win together. What is the purpose of the Libertarian Party getting 3% of the vote? Trump also pledged to nominate libertarians to senior roles in his administration. This ask did not go over well with the crowd, who responded with booze and jeers. The sections of Trump's speech dealing with crypto and clemency for Ross, however, were met with cheers and enthusiastic chanting. Ultimately, the Libertarian Party anointed Chase Oliver as their

nominee rejecting both Trump and RFK Jr. Trump's speech lit a tinderbox across crypto-twit, as the industry grapples with how to engage with the rapidly evolving political landscape. One caveat, which I will keep caveatting and keep making sure of, there is no intention of using this show as a platform to support any particular presidential candidate. The goal of this coverage and the reality of this coverage is that as someone who covers the crypto industry, it is now being thrust into the middle of the election as a major issue. This is the single biggest political shift in the history of the industry, and what happens next will have a huge impact on crypto in the U.S., so we're just going to continue to cover all angles through as

non-partisan lens as possible. So, with that said, regarding Trump's platform as the pro-crypto candidate, there are broadly two thoughts within the industry. There are the people who are all in on Trump is the only option for keeping crypto in the U.S. Mike Dutas of Sixth Man Ventures tweeted, look, I dislike this guy personally on like a thousand different levels, but he's essentially saying he's going to allow me to pursue my livelihood and provide for my family, investors, founders, and their employees. Meanwhile, the current administration wants to classify me as a criminal.

Mike is no secret Trump supporter, and so that, I think, is very reflective of a particular type of conversation. On the flip side are those who think this is just a politically expedient promise that Trump will back out of on a whim. Investor Adam Cochran wrote, The Democrats don't want to criminalize crypto. That's what the entire last week was about. The window has shifted and crypto is now a bipartisan issue. It's like America has collective amnesia about Trump. Just like Biden, Trump was previously anti-crypto and is pandering to get votes. Unlike Biden,

Trump has a decades-long history of backpedaling, not paying his bills, selling out others for his own interests, and has promised policy that is economically destabilizing, like politicizing the Fed and pulling out of international agreements. So even if you only care about the economics, the weird circle jerk of Trump on CT is misguided. We should make no mistake that political progress is transactional, but Trump isn't someone to honor his transactions. Others were less focused on the particular candidate and more focused on just how much the Overton window has shifted over the past month. Trump giving crypto a prominent position in his campaign has forced Democrats to put forward a policy and will likely even see discussion of crypto at the debates. That is a huge shift from every other

election where crypto was an afterthought. Crypto tax guy wrote, lots of people are uncomfortable supporting Trump. Good, politicians should always make you uncomfortable. What's key here, though, is the public recognition by a president that crypto is important to tens of millions of Americans and isn't going away. Crypto investor Seneca added, I obviously don't believe Trump will do everything he's saying he's going to do, not that naive. But the fact that a major presidential candidate is coming out so forcefully pro-crypto, and seemingly making the opposition party change their tune is a big deal. Hello, breakers. Today's episode is sponsored by Ledger. As another cycle ramps up, it's another chance to think about your Bitcoin custody best

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Thanks once again to Ledger for supporting the breakdown. There's still significant commentary around the idea that Dems need to suffer a political cost to entrenched crypto support within the party. DeShart Jane, the managing partner of Multicoin wrote, crypto has become a central issue in the election. Two possible scenarios. One, Republicans keep supporting crypto while Democrats keep demonizing it. Republicans win single-issue swing voters in key states.

Second, both parties compete to win crypto single-issue swing voters. That's why we can't take pressure off the Democrats on this issue just because of recent actions. They need to demonstrate their commitment to supporting crypto more strongly or they need to lose elections. The promise to deliver clemency for Ross Ulbricht also struck a chord. Ross's incarceration has long been an issue for libertarians who believe that no one should be jailed for facilitating freedom of trade between individuals even in illegal goods. For others, Ross's massive sentence is emblematic of the over-criminalization of America.

After hearing the news, Ross tweeted, last night Donald Trump pledged to commute my sentence on day one if reelected. Thank you, thank you, thank you. After 11 years in prison, it is hard to express how I feel at this moment. It is thanks to your undying support that I may get a second chance. Many pointed to the fact that Trump already had four years to pardon Ross and failed. Ross was considered late in 2020 as the administration delivered over 140 acts of clemency in its final days.

Casa CTO Jameson Lop wrote, Trump promising to commute Ross's sentence is political pandering. He had the opportunity to do so for four years and declined. Actions speak louder than words. An orange-pilled preacher who goes by Pastor Coyne commented, Trump doesn't care about Ross or Bitcoin, that's not the point. The point is he now believes it's politically expedient to free Ross. It's a ransom, your vote, and Ross is free. No one thinks Trump cares or is doing this because he cares.

It's easy votes for him. And if Ross is out of jail, it's nothing for Trump. If I was American, I'd vote for Trump just to free Ross. Notably, freedom for Ross showing up on the political agenda, presents an interesting opportunity for the Biden White House to extend a meaningful olive branch to the industry. Daniel Buckner, the head of decentralized identity at Block tweeted, Biden could easily mute any advantage Trump gained over the last 24 hours. Free Ross Allbrick now to steal the thunder,

publicly support Bitcoin to deflect eye lasers, and have Congress pass a CBDC ban. Biden is now hostage to these issues and will own the outcome if he refuses. So what about how this all plays out in politics? Following the Saturday speech, it appears that Trump's lead has widened. Prediction market, polymarket, now has Trump at a 56% chance to win the election, up to percentage points. Crypto-native prediction markets have an obvious, likely bias, but 538 also has Trump with a 1.7% lead in the polls. What's key from here, and what's going to be most important to watch, is whether over the next month the Biden White House will further soften its stance in an attempt to win back the crypto vote. While many are pointing to crypto votes over recent weeks and the approval

of ETHETFs as evidence the Dems are pivoting on crypto, there's still a lot of baggage remaining. The legislation to repeal SEC Accounting Bulletin 121 is currently on the president's desk, awaiting a signature or a veto later this week. That decision alone could speak volumes on whether the White House will attempt a crypto reversal or simply write off crypto voters. So friends, like I said, we just a little mini episode today. Apologies for the shortness, but we will have regular episodes throughout the week despite me being down in Austin. I would not have thought a couple months ago that we would be heading to the next big crypto event with the presidential candidate currently leading in the polls deciding to put crypto at the center

of their most recent conversations. But here we are. It's weird times and it's likely going to get weirder. For now, though, that is going to do it for today's breakdown. Big thank you to my sponsor for today's show. Check out the Ledger Bitcoin Orange Nano. 5% will go to support Bitcoin development. Until next time, be safe and take care of each other. Peace.