The Breakdown - What Governments Should Do in the Coming Global Monetary Competition
Episode Date: March 7, 2021On today’s episode, NLW reads Balaji Srinivasan’s essay “How India Legalizes Crypto.” NLW argues that while India’s proposed crypto ban is nominally the focus, the implications are much bigg...er and have to do with a forthcoming global monetary competition that will inevitably include private, network cryptos including bitcoin and more. -- Earn up to 12% APY on Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD, EUR, GBP, Stablecoins & more. Get started at nexo.io -- Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW The Breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.com
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Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
The breakdown is sponsored by nexo.io and Casper and produced and distributed by CoinDes.
What's going on, guys? It is Sunday, March 7th, and that means it's time for Long Reads Sunday.
One of the themes we've been talking about quite a bit on the breakdown is this idea of government
trying to ban Bitcoin and crypto.
One of the locations that everyone is the most focused on right now is India,
which seems poised to try to ban private cryptocurrencies at the same time
that it lays out a framework for an official digital currency from the Reserve Bank of India.
A couple months ago, Balaji Shrinivasaan announced that he was going to be spending his
time in Asia now, splitting time between India and Singapore.
and he has been writing about this situation specifically quite a bit.
Importantly, though, I think that the writing that he's been doing and the thinking he's been doing
applies to far more than just India.
So today we're going to read his latest piece on the situation,
how India legalizes crypto.
And as you'll see, it's really not so much about India per se.
It's about governments in general.
If you like this piece, I suggest you go back and read the preceding piece about why India
should not only ban Bitcoin, but should in fact buy Bitcoin. But for now, let's dive into how India
legalizes crypto. Previously, I detailed why India should buy Bitcoin. Here, we'll discuss why India
cannot actually ban Bitcoin and should instead treat crypto as a foreign currency using its
existing foreign exchange regime, FEMA. Our argument proceeds in four parts. One, why India can't
truly ban crypto. Two, what people think a crypto ban could do. Three,
what a crypto ban actually would do, for what India should do, legalize crypto under FEMA.
In short, crypto cannot truly be banned for technical, social, and political reasons.
The proponents of a ban think it could help Indian national security, but would find that a
crypto ban simply shuts down well-lit, regulated exchanges in favor of underground crypto,
and causes trillions in collateral damage to boot.
Bad actors would not obey a ban. People with the means to do so would move themselves or their
money abroad, and hundreds of millions of ordinary Indians would suffer compounding economic losses
for every year they are firewalled from this new financial internet. As Nick Carter says,
countries don't ban Bitcoin, they only ban themselves from the Bitcoin network. The decision
is important, and the Indian public does not yet appreciate the stakes. If the country legalizes
crypto, the positive impact may amount to trillions in both asset appreciation and GDP growth over
the 2020s, because crypto is already worth over $1 trillion in growing fast.
Conversely, a ban would cost India trillions over the long term as the financial internet grows outside
the country. Instead of a ban, India should legalize crypto, take advantage of its remittance-friendly
properties, and resolve potential misuse by extending the Foreign Exchange Management Act or FEMA
to treat cryptocurrencies as foreign assets. Because a ban would revert India to the failed
pre-liberalization Farah era when foreign assets were suspect and trade was inhibited. Let's now go
into more detail, starting with why we put the term ban in quotes.
India can't ban crypto? India can't ban crypto for three reasons. One, it's not technically feasible.
Math and computer science get in the way. Two, it's not socially feasible. Brilliant engineers,
billionaire financiers, and tens of millions of crypto holders globally present formidable obstacles.
Three, it's not politically feasible. Other states will be launching their own national digital
currencies, and India will not be able to prevent them from doing so, nor stop them from
internationalizing their offerings. To understand why banning Bitcoin is not technically feasible,
let's start with something you probably understand, Gmail. You log into Gmail with your address
and a password. Anyone can send email to that address, but only you with the password can send email
from that address. Bitcoin is similar. You have an address and a passphrase. Anyone can send
units of Bitcoin to your address, but only you with the passphrase can send Bitcoin from that
address. There is one big difference, though. With Gmail, if you forget your password, you're
word Google can reset it. With Bitcoin, if you forget your passphrase, no one can reset it.
The downside of this is that you can lose your Bitcoin entirely. The upside is that no one else,
including Google, has access to your passphrase, and that means no one else can move your
BTC. Once you realize that Bitcoin passphrases are literally just a few words that can represent
any amount of BTC, you realize how hard it is to actually ban Bitcoin in the sense of
seizing BTC from individuals. Each person's holdings can
be stored on a tiny text file that no hard drive search will be able to pick up. Transporting a few words
across borders is trivial. The words can be hidden in images. They can be stored offline. And storing
a few words for years does not require persistent internet connectivity or even power. You can literally
store billions of dollars of BTC on a scrap of paper. That's BTC held by individuals. What about the
global Bitcoin network as a whole? The network of computers that facilitates transfers of BTC between people.
That's tough to attack too. The Bitcoin blockchain is replicated on millions of computers worldwide
and cryptographically shielded against any attempt to create new currency, rewrite transaction
history, or change account balances. Bitcoin mining and nodes are distributed across many
geographic regions and are situated mostly outside of India. And that's just Bitcoin. There are
other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. And even if one of those cryptocurrencies fails, it's unlikely
they all fail in the same way, because they use different kinds of algorithms. For example,
To compromise a proof of work currency, one might try to capture the physical mining farms located
in different countries. But to compromise a proof of state currency, you need to capture a critical
mass of often pseudonymous individuals around the world. Moreover, we haven't even yet gotten
to all the new technologies that have been deployed over the last few years, like decentralized
exchanges, privacy coins, and cross-chain interoperability. All of these make cryptocurrencies as a class
beyond just Bitcoin harder to seize or shut down. To summarize, Bitcoin specifically in cryptocurrencies more
generally were built to resist bans. For the government to truly stop Indians from making Bitcoin
transactions, a mere internet shutdown for a day or a week or even a year would not be enough.
The experience of demonetization is also not applicable because the issuer of Bitcoin is not
the Indian government, and a fiat decree will not reduce the value of Bitcoin to zero.
To really prevent Indians from holding BTC or sending BTC transactions, the state would need
to, A, subject the country to an electromagnetic pulse or mass degassing sufficient to destroy all forms
of memory storage, B, ban all immigration or emigration indefinitely, and C, stop all forms of
communication entirely with people outside of the country, including physical mail, to prevent
anyone from sending a few words out of India. Clearly, this is infeasible, which is why a Bitcoin
ban is technically infeasible. Banning crypto is not socially feasible. From a social perspective,
Bitcoin specifically and cryptocurrency more generally now boast around 100 million users and
enjoys broad support among the world's tech and financial elite. We're talking about billionaires,
CEOs, cryptographers, engineers, founders, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, and angel investors,
along with an increasing number of human rights activists, athletes, celebrities, and influencers.
These are resourceful, connected, internationally mobile people who have been preparing for
possible restrictions on cryptocurrency for many years. Many of them are ideologically dedicated to
the success of cryptocurrency, well before it was as economically impactful as it is today.
Many others have billion-dollar businesses which are dependent upon the continued and expanded
and expanded legal acceptance of cryptocurrency. Given that crypto is a significant part of their
identity, net worth, and or business, a ban in one country will just result in relocation
to another domicile. This includes crypto-holding Indian founders, entrepreneurs, and VCs who
would otherwise have invested in or done business in India. Socially, Indians will respond to a ban
by moving overseas to found crypto companies or investing in one of the many foreign entities that now
have exposure to cryptocurrency like micro-strategy or Tesla. So, from a social perspective,
all a ban does is increase the cost of holding crypto for Indians and stop crypto investors and
founders from entering India. Banning crypto is not politically feasible. Perhaps the most interesting
reason that countries can't ban crypto is that they can't ban other countries, because we
are about to enter a new age of global monetary competition. Recall that when Google News launched in 2002,
it suddenly pitted every newspaper against each other. Geographic monopolies began evaporating.
Local newspapers that didn't publish much in the way of local news
found that reprinting the same AP headline as everyone else was no longer a viable business model.
The same thing is about to happen over the 2020s as multiple countries begin launching national
digital currencies, and we go from 100 million cryptocurrency owners to 1 billion plus.
Each country will face a trade-off between centralized control and global adoption of its national
digital currency, between power and money. The obvious design for a national digital currency is to
simply back it by a centralized database, which only approved government users control, to surveil every
transaction, to require it for all domestic transactions, and to ban all competing digital currencies
to spur adoption. This is similar to India's reported course of action with the digital rupee.
But this obvious approach immediately runs into a problem. A state that tries forcing its citizens
to adopt a national digital currency domestically will soon need to be.
to contend with the reality of unbannable international currency competition for the following reasons.
First, other countries will continue to exist and will also issue national digital currencies.
It isn't just India and China that are talking about national digital currencies,
so are many other states, and these states will continue to exist, as not even a superpower
can invade the world or control everyone's monetary policy. Second, some nations will
want to internationalize their national digital currencies such that it is held abroad. Currency
internationalization is the widespread use of a currency outside the borders of its country of issue.
The Chinese have sought to internationalize the RMB since the late 2000s, and there is discussion
within India over whether to internationalize the rupee. There are both costs and benefits to
currency internationalization, but let us assume that at least some nations will want to
internationalize their currency for the economic benefits and soft power of having their
national currency widely accepted and held abroad. Third, some countries will facilitate trades
between national digital currencies and cryptocurrencies. This is already true as we see financial
centers and technology capitals like Singapore, Dubai, Switzerland, Miami, and Estonia embracing
crypto. The reason is obvious. Crypto generates enormous economic benefits for the nations that
adopt it, and these financial centers will facilitate the international exchange of national
digital currencies and cryptocurrencies. Fourth, nations can't easily stop their citizens
from holding foreign digital currencies or cryptocurrencies on their computers. Cryptocurrencies
and other digital assets are, by their design, so-called bearer instruments. A user holds the private
keys to their cryptocurrency on their laptops. As for national digital currencies, we don't yet know
how the Chinese digital yuan will work or what other countries will do. However, if any national
digital currencies are implemented like the USD-based stable coins that are already widely adopted,
they would also allow users to hold the equivalent of an API key locally while retaining administrative
rights at the blockchain level, to use under exceptional circumstances. In this model, you'd have a file
on your computer or phone which represented digital cash in a national currency and which applications
could use for normal transactions, but which the issuing state could freeze or reverse in extraordinary
circumstances. Fifth, nations won't give other nations root access to their own national digital
currencies. Brazil wouldn't let India administer the digital real, just like India wouldn't let Brazil
administer the digital rupee. The entire purpose of a national digital currency is monetary sovereignty.
So taking together these five points outlined the political rationale for why banning crypto is not
feasible. It would mean banning national digital currencies from foreign states. Bans won't work beyond
borders. When you combine the technical, social, and political vantage points, it becomes clear that
any country that tries to ban crypto will not succeed in banning crypto beyond its borders. Decentralized
cryptocurrencies will continue to exist after any ban, and will be legal in at least some countries
like Switzerland and Estonia. National digital currencies for other states will also continue to
exist after a ban. And in the event of a ban, people will move abroad or buy interest in foreign
entities to gain exposure to decentralized cryptocurrencies and other national digital currencies.
Seen from another perspective, one country's national digital currency is another country's
foreign cryptocurrency. For India, the commonality between digital gold and the digital pound is that
India doesn't have control over either digital gold or the digital pound. So both technically
unbannable cryptocurrencies and politically unbannable national digital currencies will remain
available in cyberspace regardless of domestic policy.
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Bands will be porous within borders.
The international context affects the domestic context.
Many decentralized cryptocurrency networks have millions of users
and have user bases as largest small nation states.
Virtually every such network wants foreigners to hold as cryptocurrency
in order to grow its market capitalization and adoption.
And many national digital currencies
will be internationalized digital currencies,
which are meant to be held by foreigners,
like a digital Swiss franc.
We can see a sneak preview of what a crypto ban would look like in Nigeria.
Ministers realized it couldn't be stopped and are now talking about turning things around.
A new age of global monetary competition.
Because all these other cryptocurrencies and foreign digital currencies will be accessible over the internet,
we are entering an era of global monetary competition.
Over the next 10 years, hundreds of millions of people will own many different kinds of digital assets,
including cryptocurrencies, foreign national digital currencies,
and the national digital currency of their own state.
All of these will compete against each other
because it will be easy for someone to hold a portfolio of, say,
Bitcoin, ETH, digital stocks and bonds,
the Brazilian digital real,
and the Indian digital rupee on their own computer.
The digital rupee will not be able to win this competition
with a simple ban,
because people will choose their portfolio of currencies
based on several characteristics.
Coercion. Does the state require them to hold it?
This is the impact of a ban,
but compliance with any ban cannot be assumed to be 100%.
Upside? Does the asset offer the upside of a Bitcoin or Ethereum, which have appreciated 10,000
X over the last decade? If this is life-changing enough, then people will change their lives
to get around a band by moving abroad or buying shares in overseas vehicles with crypto exposure.
Adoption. Can they buy relevant goods and services with it? Is it used by people in their
social network? Privacy. Does the currency protect privacy? Note that for the same reason
signal is drawing users from WhatsApp, private money will tend to out-compete surveillance money.
In other words, there is a real economic cost to financial surveillance. Transparency, does the asset allow
for cryptographically verifiable transparency to facilitate accounting and financial statements?
Multi-signature. Does the asset allow multiple users to sign transactions? For example,
to facilitate disbursement of funds upon a corporate board vote. Programmability. Does the digital
asset facilitate programmability, such as the use of Ethereum-based smart contracts? This is a very
important use case that facilitates new kinds of programs and protocols. Scalability. Does the
the assets support a large number of transactions per second as is required for applications like
micropayments? Monetary policy. Does the asset have a stable and predictable monetary policy like Bitcoin?
For example, can you predict the inflation rate several years out? Reversibility. Is the asset
error tolerant? Is there a system administrator that can be contacted to reverse transactions
as with a wire transfer? Censorship resistance. Is the asset censorship resistant such that there
is no system administrator that can reverse any transactions, as with a Bitcoin transfer?
Volatility. Does the asset change in value from day to day, or is it relatively stable,
like a stable coin or national digital currency? Note that coercion is just one feature in this
feature matrix. That is, a domestic crypto ban is an incentive. But it's not a fully determining one,
particularly when you consider the life-changing 10,000x upside that comes from holding crypto
assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, and the fact that crypto will remain legal abroad in at least
some jurisdictions. If India makes technologists choose between holding crypto and operating
in India, many will choose to hold crypto. In summary, because India can't actually ban decentralized
cryptocurrencies and national digital currencies beyond its borders, it will have to compete on
more than just a ban. The digital rupee will have to compete on its features. It will need to
out-compete all other national digital currencies and cryptocurrencies to be widely adopted.
It won't be able to win solely on the basis of coercion. Smart politicians around the world
understand this. Even New York City must adopt crypto to maintain its status.
as a financial capital now.
Now let's shift gears for a second.
Why do people want to resort to coercion or a ban in the first place?
What do they think it could do?
Let's empathize with them.
We don't yet have draft language for today's proposed ban,
but the draft bill from 2019 lists four proposed reasons to ban cryptocurrencies.
To paraphrase, here's what people who want a ban in 2019 were concerned with.
One, national security.
Bad actors are sending money to India to stir up violence and agitation and fund terrorism.
Just like demonetization, we want to cut off dark money flows in a crypto ban, even if imperfect,
will help with that.
2. Consumer Protection.
The volatility of cryptocurrencies means that people can lose money, and we need to protect consumers
from downside.
3. Energy consumption.
The energy consumption of proof of work currencies like Bitcoin is very high, and we want to save energy.
4. Monetary policy.
Because they can't be controlled by the government, cryptocurrencies themselves, imperil monetary
policy and national sovereignty.
Proponents of the 2021 ban have added it.
an important new wrinkle. They say that you can do blockchain without crypto, with a digital
rupee on a permission ledger that has none of these issues. Their thinking is that bad actors can't use
digital rupees as easily because the RBI would have route access. The rupee is stable,
permission ledger doesn't consume energy via Bitcoin like mining, and it integrates directly with the
country's monetary policy. So their belief is that if you could ban all digital currencies,
you could just get the good features with a digital rupee with none of this bad,
and solve the national security, consumer protection, energy consumption, and monetary policy issues listed above.
The issue is that while a digital rupee is indeed a good idea, none of these four desired goals will be achieved with a ban.
Now, let's go through what a crypto ban would actually do.
National Security. A ban hits good actors, not just bad ones. First, you won't be able to ban bad actors from sending and receiving cryptocurrencies because, A, at the human level,
bad actors won't comply with the law, and B, at the technical level, a ban would mean banning
the internet and destroying all hard drives. Instead, what a ban would do is shut down all legal
crypto exchanges and push crypto into the underground, expanding the space for bad actors to
operate rather than contracting it. As the saying goes, if crypto is outlawed, only outlaws will
use crypto. Millions of law-biting Indians would comply with the law, but only grudgingly, knowing
that friends and relatives were getting wealthy from crypto abroad, that other countries had legalized
it, that the world was adopting it, and that they were being left out. Consumer protection.
Taking away downside means taking away upside. Second, the upside of crypto more than compensates
for the volatility. Just look at the charts. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the best performing assets
of all time, beating every startup of the 2010s and globally accessible to virtually any investor,
not just the few with the connections to get into great startups. So while a digital rupee would
take away the downside, it would also take away the upside. No one is getting rich,
an asset with zero volatility. Again, many Indians would try to figure out ways to circumvent
the ban by going overseas, buying stakes in foreign companies with exposure to crypto, or simply
flouting the law. The state would be in the awkward position of preventing people from getting
wealthier, the opposite of economic liberalization. Energy consumption. Crypto improves
renewable pricing. Not only is 70% of Bitcoin mining now powered by renewables, the World
Economic Forum has noted that Bitcoin actually improved the economic competitiveness of renewables
themselves by storing power that would otherwise be wasted in the form of mined BTC. Moreover, newer
cryptocurrency designs like Ethereum's proof of stake don't use mining at all. Monetary policy,
crypto is an alternative to USD and RMB. I went into this in my previous post, but the main point
is that only governments that want to engage in Venezuela-like money printing will be significantly
constrained by Bitcoin. Governments that buy Bitcoin will find their treasuries rise with time,
and governments that legalize cryptocurrencies as part of the financial internet will find that they
are robust to both American and Chinese abuses of the international financial system,
because they'll have a huge domestic crypto sector they can turn to in the event of trouble.
So the crypto ban would harm national security by pushing crypto underground,
make Indians poor, harm renewable energy, and reduce India's flexibility with respect to international monetary policy.
A ban would also cause many other forms of collateral damage, including India would lose out on years of
compounding appreciation in crypto assets, India would lose access to the financial internet.
Tech personalities with large amounts of crypto like Elon Musk, Mark Andreessen, and Peter Thiel would not
be allowed in the region. Tech companies with large amounts of crypto like Tesla would face an
uncertain legal and accounting regime. Indian crypto founders and investors would leave the country.
Crypto investors and remittances wouldn't be allowed to come into the country. And because
crypto would continue to grow outside India, the country would gain nothing in the end as India
will eventually need to U-turn in 2025 or 2030.
Disrespect for the law.
Unlike a ban on violent crime, which has the support of 99% of the population,
a crypto ban will be perceived as a way to stop Indians from getting wealthier
or joining in the development of the financial internet,
particularly once Indians see people in other countries embracing crypto and growing as a consequence.
Though the ban is aimed at bad actors, they are by their nature likely to flout any rules.
The ban's actual damage will fall upon India's best technologists and financiers,
and that will serve to inadvertently alienate them from India.
Poverty harms sovereignty.
Just to linger on this point for the people who weigh the national security argument very heavily,
it's worth remembering that poverty harms sovereignty.
A poor India, or an India that is poorer than its rivals, is a weak India.
That's why the Chinese have their saying, the backwards will be beaten.
So let's suppose India closes itself off to crypto, tries to firewall the financial internet.
What happens then?
It's not banned worldwide, as noted above.
and so your country just becomes relatively poorer over time. The total market capitalization of all
cryptocurrencies right now has risen from zero to one trillion in a decade. Some of the sub-areas
within crypto like DeFi are at $30 billion in rising vertically. You don't normally see
something that big growing that fast. If crypto rose from even $1 trillion to just $10 trillion
in another 10 years, India, with an annual GDP of $3 trillion, would lose out on its share of $9 trillion
in crypto appreciation alone. Thus, even if the only goal is national security.
you could buy a lot of defense infrastructure with that money. There are cheaper and more surgical
ways to identify bad actors than a ban. Just allow well-lit, regulated crypto exchanges rather than
criminalizing a technology that helps Indians build wealth and strengthen the country.
What India should do. Regulate crypto under FEMA. We've gone over why India can't technically,
socially, or politically enforce a ban on cryptocurrencies, what the state is trying to accomplish
with a ban and what a ban actually would do.
Now, let's discuss what India should do. First, a bit of history. Why did FEMA replace Fira?
In 1999, India moved from a currency regulation regime Fira to a currency management regime FEMA.
The former was supposed to conserve foreign exchange reserves while the latter optimized for facilitating
external trade and payments while building an orderly Forex market. Why the change? Well,
Fira didn't actually conserve foreign exchange reserves. In reality, it had the opposite effect.
quote, the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act was legislation passed in India in 1973 that imposed
strict regulations on certain kind of payments. The tenor and tone of the Act was very drastic.
It required imprisonment for even minor offenses. Fura was repealed in 1998 and replaced by the
Foreign Exchange Management Act, which liberalized foreign exchange controls and restrictions
on foreign investments. The shift from Fira to FEMA from a closed to open system was a foundational
shift in policy linked to India's integration into the global economy.
As background, foreign investment in the country had increased 40x from $132 million in 1991-192 to $5.3 billion
in 1995-196. The graphs were up and to the right, and it was in this context that FEMA was enacted,
as it acknowledged the need for capital to flow into and out of the country subject to reasonable
constraints. By 2006, in part aided by FEMA, India recorded a GDP growth rate of 9.6%,
becoming the second fastest-growing major economy in the world next only to China.
History repeats. The graphs are again up and to the right, except they're in the new blockchain-based
financial system rather than the old one. And India once again faces a choice between a closed
currency system and an open one, between the licensed Raj and a liberalized regime. But this time
it's not Fira versus FEMA, it's crypto-banned versus crypto boom. The next step is clear. Let
Indians access the emerging financial internet by expanding FEMA-like regulation to make crypto safe
and legal for all. India should regulate crypto under FEMA.
Basically, India doesn't need to take a risk with a novel ban on the financial internet.
It can just modify FEMA to regulate decentralized cryptocurrencies and national digital currencies
as foreign assets.
A 64-page report by the Indian law firm Nishevcet-Tesai Associates outlines in detail how that could
work.
In brief, the report recommends treating crypto as a foreign asset.
FEMA provides language that could be used to expressly classify digital assets as
securities, goods, software, or foreign currencies depending on their features and attributes.
regulating exchanges with startup-friendly licensing. RBI could use FEMA to regulate crypto exchanges
as authorized persons per the Act, thereby permitting them to deal in foreign currency.
Some provision would need to be made to accommodate startups, perhaps by monitoring small
new license under a regulatory sandbox framework. By repurposing this well-established regulatory
mechanism, crypto assets become subject to all the existing safeguards that the Act provides,
including RBI Oversight and KYC-AML. Adopting KYC-AML rules.
Developed jurisdictions, including Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, South Korea, and the U.S.,
have brought crypto assets business activity within their AML regimes.
Such an approach has also been recommended by the FATIF.
India can do this with a simple central government notification under the Prevention of Money Laundering
Act.
The FEMA-based model, or a close alternative, would allow us to turn all licensed regulated
Indian exchanges like Coin DCX, WazirX, CoinSwitch, ZebPay, Unicoin, and PocketBits,
into well-lit venues for trading cryptocurrency. Over time, they will also become huge drivers
of remittances for Indians abroad performing remote work, thereby bringing capital into India.
Conclusion. In summary, India should regulate crypto using its proven foreign exchange regime
rather than imposing a hasty ban on the emerging financial internet. While specific details can be
worked out, we think the concept is directionally right because liberalizing foreign exchange
was one of the most important steps in turning India away from the pre-liberalization era.
Once India thinks about liberalizing crypto as analogous to liberalizing foreign exchange, we put things
into the proper context.
We realize that India can't ban Bitcoin any more than it can ban gold, or the pound, or a future
digital pound.
We realize that the mere possession of gold or the pound by Indian citizens has not endangered
India, and neither will the possession of digital gold or the digital pound.
And finally, we realize that legalizing crypto will open up India to the financial internet,
just as liberalizing foreign exchange open up India's financial markets.
So this one was a super long read, so I'm not going to do a big analysis at the end.
I just want to point out and really double triple quadruple highlight this key idea
that unless every government banned Bitcoin at the same time,
it's going to compete as a force because as much as politicians want it to,
it simply has no national boundaries.
As a native currency of the internet,
it cannot be constrained and contained in the same way that
previous types of fintechs or technology companies have. This does represent a challenge to power
and authority the way that it has been met it out for decades, but it doesn't mean that it has
to be disempowering. In fact, governments that understand and engage with this type of force, this
internet-native force on its own terms, can in fact find ways that it could empower them in
ways previously unimaginable, especially in the context of their peers who haven't gotten there yet.
From a pessimistic, nerve-wracking external force to an opportunity for something greater.
Let's hope that that idea is heated around the world.
Anyways, guys, thanks for listening.
I appreciate it.
Until tomorrow, be safe and take care of each other.
Peace.
