The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - After COVID Will It Be A Baby Boom Or A Baby Bust?

Episode Date: June 18, 2020

A Thursday potpourri on contact tracing to masks to baby numbers to the origins of the 10,000 step march. Something for everyone on this one.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here with the latest episode of The Bridge Daily. Here we are Thursday of week 14, and we've got an interesting little program today, as hinted at by the cover art and the question about a baby boom or a baby bust. What are we looking forward to as COVID-19, or at least when COVID-19 draws to a close? It's an interesting question, but I'm not going to get to the answer yet. I've got a few other things to cover first.

And we'll start with some of the day's news. The Prime Minister and the Premier of Ontario, and I think the Premier of BC as well, talked today about a new app that is going to be coming out in Canada at the beginning of July, a contact tracing app. Now, exactly how it's going to work is unclear. But we'll get all the details over these next couple of weeks before the beginning of July start on this. But the idea is kind of simple. If you download the app and you fill out the particulars,

you will get a warning if you have been in contact with anybody else who tests positive for COVID-19, as long as they've also downloaded the app, okay, it will show, this app will show that you have been in contact, in proximity to this person. Or if you develop COVID-19 and you test positive, it will show others who are on the app that they have been in contact with somebody who has COVID-19

and that they should go and get tested. That's the simple explanation of how this will work. Now, we're not the first country to try this. Other countries have, especially in Asia, but also they're testing it out in the UK. And many people say, many authorities say, this is the best way to be able to get in touch with people quickly who may have common contact with COVID-19. It will raise privacy issues, and you can be sure those issues are going to play out over these next couple of weeks.

Because, you know, how far does this go? How long will it last? What other uses could it be used for? In tracing where and when people have been to different places. So that's the concern, the privacy concern. The health concern is, hey, this is a much better way of being on top of this. So contact tracing using this app, a downloadable app, is on its way. It'll be here in a couple of weeks.

And be prepared for the debate which will surround it. One. Two. My favorite topic, masks. I tell you, more and more people are talking masks. The Globe and Mail writes an editorial, masks should be mandatory, is basically the argument the Globe makes, and talks about kind of the ridiculous nature of, you know, you go into a grocery store, there are a lot of people there. Some of them are wearing masks. Some of them aren't.

You go into some stores, some of the staff are wearing masks. Some of them aren't. There's no uniformity. And there should be, is the argument. Now, I'm a big believer in masks. I think we should be wearing masks. We're at a critical moment. All you have to do is look south of the border

and the places where they're having real problems right now. Real problems. One of the reasons why, overwhelmingly, you don't want the border reopened. One of those reasons is they're not wearing masks. Look in the areas where they are doing well. Look at New York City, where they've turned around a horrific situation. By social distancing, by washing hands, by staying at home, and by wearing masks.

When you look at the pictures from New York City, I don't know whether it's most people, but an awful lot of people seem to be wearing masks now. It is the thing to do. In other parts of the states, especially along the southern belt of the states, you don't see a lot of masks, and you see a lot of positive tests.

I'll leave it at that. I'm not going to get into, you know, Republicans don't wear masks and Democrats do wear masks. I think that can be overstretched. It's kind of an oversimplification of the situation. We'll see what happens in the States after this rally that's supposed to take place in two days in Tulsa. They put 20,000 people in that arena and none of them wearing masks. I don't know. Indoor rally.

Outdoor rally, maybe, even though we watched these protests for the last three weeks. Certainly the last week or two, almost everybody's wearing masks, even though it's outdoors, right? Outdoors, you've got a better situation. Indoors, terrible situation. We've been telling you outdoors is good for you right now. It's really good for you, but still wear a mask. You know, I have to keep reminding myself, you know, I'm a believer in mass, but there are times when I walk out the front door and walk half a block or less to pick up the mail at the community mailbox, and I've forgotten the mask.

You know, sometimes I turn around, come back and get the mask. Other times I'm halfway down the street and I go, okay, there's like nobody here. There's nobody else on the street. So I head out and get the mail. That's wrong. Wear a mask. Get used to it. Man, we got time to get used to it.

Masks are the thing for the next while. All right. Babies. Are we in for a baby boom once we figure we've got this beat? Yes or no? What do you think? Baby boom, yes? Raise your hands.

Well, there's quite a few of you. Baby boom, no? Well, I see some hands up there too. Here's the answer, at least the answer when it comes to a new report that economists have been writing for the Brookings Institution. So this is in the Washington Post yesterday. I grabbed it because I wanted to tease you with this today. In this report,

economists estimate that the United States could see on the order of 300,000 to 500,000, wait for it, fewer births next year as a result of the economic recession triggered by COVID-19. The economists derive their estimates. I'm reading here from the Post. The economists derive their estimates from data on birth rates during the Great Recession and the 1918 flu pandemic.

Both of those upheavals had a considerable negative impact on fertility. Here's more data. During the Great Recession, for instance, states that experienced steeper job losses tended to see more dramatic reductions in their birth rates between 2008 and 2011. Well, that wasn't the Great Recession. That was post the financial crash. Looking at the country as a whole, they found that in 2007, the birth rate was 69.1 births per 1,000 women, ages 15 to 44. In 2012, the rate was 63 births per 1,000 women. That works out to a 9% drop, or roughly 400,000 fewer births. Now, we've talked about this before.

Okay, these are U.S. numbers. What does it mean in Canada? The only way we ever kind of determine this is sort of a 10 to 1 ratio. If everything else is equal. Well, everything else isn't necessarily equal, but we'll use the 10 to 1 because that's the only ratio we got. So in the big study right now, we're talking 30 to 50,000 fewer births.

The reason children are expensive and having a child is in many ways a financial decision. The loss, that sounds awful, doesn't it? We're going to have a child, but first of all, let's make that determination by how much money we have, how much money we think we'll have. But for some people, that is the decision-making process. The loss of a job or otherwise uncertain prospects for a steady income lead many would-be parents to postpone having kids until things are more settled. In economic jargon, birth rates are pro-cyclical. They tend to rise during times of economic growth and fall during recessions. okay find that interesting I thought it was pretty interesting

because I assumed it would go the other way when we know that this is going to end that this is over and we're all looking up and excited and happy we might want to share the space with newborns and we're all looking up and excited and happy,

we might want to share the space with newborns. But apparently not, at least not according to that study. Now, some of you, you hardcore Bridge Daily listeners will remember a piece I did, which I think it was, man, it was two months ago because there was still snow on the ground. And I talked about the 4,000 steps a day. I pulled that from some study somewhere. Because a lot of us were getting, you know, couch lazy

in the first month of the pandemic. We didn't go anywhere. We didn't do anything. We watched a lot of Netflix. And we said, you got to get up, man. You got to get up and man. You've got to get up, and you've got to start moving. And the bare minimum we should be doing is 4,000 steps a day. And so that's kind of where it started.

And, you know, in my case, it was walking around the backyard, still snow on the ground, still wearing a jacket, still wearing a toque, still wearing a big scarf, but walking, doing my 4,000 steps, logging it on my iPhone and being happy when I got to the number. And of course, like anything else in exercise, it got easier and easier. I started doing 6,000, 7,000. You know, people were writing in saying, hey, I do 10,000, 12,000, 15,000 every day. Always do.

Well, good for you. I was happy that I wasn't doing zero. So why am I telling you all this? Well, I'm telling you all this because of another, another piece that I've got to talk about and this was in airmail new weekly online

well it's not that new it's about I guess almost a year old by now airmail comes out Saturday mornings about 6.15 I'm always up I'm mornings at 6.15. I'm always up. I'm up at 5.30, so I look forward to it dropping.

And there's all kinds of stuff in it. Graydon Carter is involved in airmail. Canadian. Used to be the editor of Vanity Fair. And in some ways, airmail is kind of like Vanity Fair. Anyway, what's that got to do with steps? This is what it's got to do with steps. A Harvard medical professor gets to the root of the 10,000 steps per day fad,

and it has nothing to do with science. Ah, you ready, you 10,000 step-a-dayers? You know, all this kind of 10,000 plus kind of, in some ways in the modern era, started with Fitbits, you know, those tools that start off, you snap them on your belt, and they got fancy in their watches, and they do all kinds of things, heart rate, whatever, but they do steps. I think it was 2007, Fitbit came on the market, and it was a hit. So during the age of the Fitbit,

all able-bodied men and women were expected to take 10,000 steps a day. Now, two studies, which together involve more than 20,000 Americans, have cast doubt on this target. One study involving more than 17,000 women between the ages of 62 and 101 showed the benefits of walking began to taper off after about 7,500 steps. Mm-hmm. Another study involving a younger cohort of about 4,000 Americans, aged 40 and upwards, suggested there were health benefits for more steps, but also showed that those benefits were dwindling

before they reached the 10,000-step mark. Both studies note that the target probably derives not from hard science, not from Fitbit, but from a 1960s Japanese marketing campaign. You ready for this? More is better, but the curve levels off, said Ai-Min Lee, a medical professor and epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Medicine, who was the lead author of the study on women. Dr. Lee began looking at the ubiquitous 10,000-step target because she worried it was counterproductive for some people. I became really interested in the origins of the 10,000 because I work with mainly older women.

With many older women, if you ask them for 10,000 steps, it's like asking them to go to the moon. Her paper reports, and I'm reading here from airmail, her paper reports that the yen for 10,000 steps really? The yen for 10,000 steps? Remember, I didn't write that. And here we're quoting Dr. Lee.

Probably derives from the trade name of a pedometer sold in 1965 by the Yamasa Clock and Instrument Company. Dr. Lee said that the company sold a wearable pedometer that was called Manpokai, which meant 10,000 step meter. The Japanese character for 10,000 looks like a man walking, and that's why they chose it, she said. It wasn't rooted in a scientific study. Nor, she says, was there much study of the benefits of steps until the age of wearable fitness trackers.

So obviously, everybody knows that being active helps. It's good for the body. It's good for the soul. It's good for the mind. It's good. But 10,000 steps, maybe that's just a figment of the imagination of the person at Yamasaw Clock and Instrument Company who came up with that man pokai. That meter.

Anyway, I'm not trying to talk you out of doing steps, but I am giving you something else to think about when you're on your next walk building your steps. All right. Tomorrow's Friday. It's the end of week 14. You know what that means. It will be the weekend special where I pick up a collection of your thoughts

and your questions and your questions and your letters that have come through this week. And once again, already there are some good ones. There were an awful lot on this question of whether or not to close the U.S. border. I mean hundreds. Most of those were yes or no, which is what I asked for, but some got creative and wrote a few lines. But I don't want to get

just totally on that issue, because it's pretty cut and dry where you feel. You want the border closed, and kept closed. And don't be in a rush to open it. That's the general thesis of what you wrote. But there are a couple of them that I think may well be worth reading on air as well on the podcast. And, of course, there's a collection of other comments and questions and thoughts from you that will make the package as well something to listen to.

There's one other thing I'm going to do for this weekend. I'm going to give you a breakdown of, well, not who you are, but where you are. Because this weekend we will cross officially the half a million download mark, for whatever that means. And I'm not sure I know what it means. Podcast numbers are odd to look at. I mean, I get a tremendous response from you by email

and people kind of mentioning to me in different forms and ways that they listen to the podcast, and that's great. Love it. But those who monitor these things, say half a million downloads in the time we've been doing the podcast is a big number. But they also tell us where you are.

And so I'm going to be talking about that a little bit this weekend as well in the podcast that comes out tomorrow. It breaks down totally every single city or town or community in the world that listens or has listened at one point or another. It tells you the number of countries that listen. It tells you where most of your listeners are. Well, surprise, most of the podcast listeners are in Canada, but they're not alone.

I can't remember what the actual number is. We'll talk about it this weekend, but I think it's certainly more than 100 different countries have downloaded the Bridge daily. More than 100 different countries. That's pretty impressive. Anyway, we'll talk about some of those numbers and what they may or may not mean

on the weekend special as well. All right, so if you have something you want to get in, get it in tonight or early tomorrow at themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. And you may make the list. There are no guarantees in this. There's never time to read them all,

but there is time to read what are the ones that move me in one way or another. And, you know, they all move me in some fashion. They're all great. They're all thoughtful, smart letters, even when you think I'm crazy about something I may have said. All right. So we look forward to hearing from you.

We look forward to bringing you the weekend special, number 14. But this was the Thursday edition of the Bridge Daily. Hope you enjoyed it. Thanks for listening. I'm Peter Mansbridge. We'll be back in 24 hours.