The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - An Election DAY Special -- How To Watch And What To Watch For With Bruce And Me And The Race Next Door (#18)

Episode Date: November 3, 2020

We're putting this out early to help get you ready for tonight. Have Fun.

All right, here we are. It is the day, the day for the U.S. election. And in the hours ahead, we're all going to be like sitting there comfortably, watching, listening, making our own calculations about what's going to happen in the U.S. presidential race and a lot of other races as well that are also critical to the way this next U.S. government will perform. So on this early edition, early edition of the race next door

inside the Bridge Daily, the podcast within a podcast. We're going to try and set you up for the evening, give you some things that you might want to think about based on what we're thinking about in terms of how we're going to watch this evening unfold. So, of course, Bruce Anderson is in Ottawa. I'm here in Stratford, Ontario. And we're going to get at this in just a minute

because I think I should also say at this point, because this has been fun for the last couple of months that we've been doing the race next door. And I think I've mentioned this before, but I'll mention it again. This was Bruce's idea. He came to me in the summer and he said, you know what, we should try something

because, you know, you've been focused, rightly so, on COVID ever since mid-March. But this is an opportunity because this is a great story and there are things we can talk about and there are guests we can have and blah, blah, blah, all that. And he was right. And it's proved incredibly popular. I mean, some of the biggest podcasts that we've had since I started this podcast a year ago have been a result of the race next door. Last night was the fastest growing podcast we've had all along, which was when Mark Critch joined us.

And if you haven't heard it, you should listen to it because it's not only great entertainment it's it's also pretty good insight uh brian mulrooney last friday night huge numbers still growing people listening to that and and i think and bruce you probably agreed a lot of people saw and heard a different kind of brian mulrooney than they're kind of used to i mean he was very laid back uh He was insightful. He was anecdotal. He was all those things. A lot of people have mixed feelings about Mulroney,

and understandably so from back in the 80s. But even they were writing in saying, hey, look, you know, I don't like the guy, but he was great, and I learned a lot from listening to him. And that's good. That's what we're trying to accomplish through this podcast. But I want you to know that full credit goes to Bruce for the idea. And as a result, we're going to try and think of ways to keep this going.

I mean, obviously, the race next door is going to be over at some point in these next days. There's the race here, which is always good food for fodder, and I'm sure we'll do it. But Bruce, once again, full credit to you. Thank you for everything you did in bringing this idea forward. Well, Peter, it's been a lot of fun to have this conversation,

and I believe everything you say about the way in which our guests feel about the interaction. It's laid back. They have a chance to be reflective. They're not on expecting us to kind of attack them or grill them. That's not really what this is for. That's what kind of regular journalism is for. This is really about having a conversation. I think people who come on and joined us have enjoyed it, have said some things that maybe we weren't really expecting them to say.

And I think listeners are hearing those things and hopefully enjoying the podcast. And certainly the numbers suggest that that's the case. So thanks for agreeing to do it. We've known each other a long time. We've talked about politics and everything else for years and years and years. And it's the first time we've ever done it this way and uh look forward to finding a way to keep uh keep this up

in the future as well and i'm sure we will be able to find that way uh once we once we bury this story but that may take a while yet so uh let's talk a little bit about how we're going to uh spend our evenings here and i kind of break it down into sort of how you're going to watch, who you're going to watch, and what you're going to watch for. So let's start with the how you're going to watch. And I don't mean, I don't need to know what kind of chair you're sitting in, but in terms of how you're going to watch in terms of networks, and then we'll get to who in terms of personalities,

but how are you going to watch? Well, I think the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to have two screens. I'm going to have a TV screen, and I'm going to have a laptop or an iPad near me so that I can keep an eye on the broadcast portion of the night and also keep an eye on a couple of sites that are going to contain a lot of data that I'm going to want to look at just to kind of nurture my curiosity and obviously to hopefully ease some of the anxiety that I'm feeling about how uncertain this outcome is. Even though I know I said I think the outcome is fairly certain.

You're pretty much on the record, buddy. You're not going to be able to get out of that. I got all the tapes here. Anyway, go ahead. You're not breathing if you're not nervous today. So I am nervous today, and I'm going to be nervous all day, and there's going to be some whiskey or some champagne nearby depending on how the night goes.

But in terms of the sites that I'm going to use and the broadcast outlet, for TV, it'll be CNN and MSNBC, and mostly CNN. I think that they've got a really great team, a seasoned team. They know how to use data a lot. They do that to some degree at MSNBC, but MSNBC is more about the team and the personalities that they interview, I think, and a little bit less about the data. So I'll be kind of 75% CNN, 25% MSNBC. And in terms of the websites that I'm going to use, I'll be using CNN's Election Center,

which if our listeners are interested, has a really good way of presenting a lot of information about key races, and also the New York Times. Now, you may remember, Peter, in the last presidential election, the New York Times had this controversial needle, and they said that they're going to bring the needle back. But they said that today, and they were sheepish about it. They said there's a lot of people who didn't like the needle. Now, the needle, just so we remember, is a way in which they presented the probability of a certain outcome. And as I remember, at nine o'clock on election night in 2016, they said it was 95 percent sure that Hillary Clinton was going to win. And within about 20 minutes, they said it was almost

like 0% sure that she was going to win, which makes people wonder legitimately about these probability indicators. So I'm not happy the needle's back, but I am going to use their site because they have a lot of great information there. And I think they learned some important lessons. All right. I'm going to, uh, what about you? I'm going to plant the flag here a little bit, first of all. I mean, obviously, I anchored CBC coverage of U.S. elections, I think every one since 1984 when Reagan won re-election. And now, you know, I'm not naive. I appreciate that it's a tougher job for Canadian networks and radio stations

and websites to compete on a U S scale. They don't have the resources. They don't have the, and I don't mean money. I mean the access to the computer data that, that the American networks obviously have in conjunction with each other, by the way. So,

but what they do have access to, if do their coverage right is great talkers. And on a night like this, that's what you depend on. You depend on the quality of your journalists and your guests to try and help with the unfolding story. I remember the last time around, we had a really good panel of whom the panelists became kind of stars, and they're now on many of the American networks

these days giving their commentary after we kind of conditioned them, got them ready for the big leagues, if you want, in terms of U.S. coverage in the U.S. So, you know, you got to look around and it's worth dropping in every once in a while, because obviously this election is going to have an impact on Canada. And you're not going to hear that talked about anywhere in terms of U.S. coverage. Having said that, and I believe that, and I think it's important that we as Canadians do drop in on occasion. You know, if you get bored of what you're watching or you find

it's not stimulating or informative enough, you know, drop in. It's not just CBC. CTV will do a good job. Global, I'm sure, is going to try as well, but it's worth patching into. However, most of my time, I am sure, for the first time since 84, will be spent watching American networks. And I'm kind of like you. I mean, my deep traditions go back to the major networks like CBS and NBC, but some of the personalities on those networks are not, don't attract me in the way past analysts and journalists did on those networks. So, you know, I'm like you. It'll probably be MSNBC and CNN and back and forth on those, and I will dip in on occasion to Fox as well,

and I say that for a reason, because Fox election night coverage is not dominated by its wacko opinion journalists. It's actually dominated by its journalist journalists. And you can have your arguments about Fox News and their important arguments to be having. But there are also some good journalists there, and it'll be interesting to see their take early on, you know, when I think of Chris Wallace and others,

and it'll be interesting to see how they handle this story tonight. But mainly, like you, it'll be MSNBC and CNN. Okay, so we haven't talked about any people in particular. So if you're talking about who to watch in terms of individuals, who are you watching? You know, I think there's two kinds of people that I like to hear on a night like this. One are the folks who can give me the rational,

very focused on what are they seeing in the numbers? What is their reporting? Tell them from the people that they're talking with who are working in the campaign. And the other is the emotional. What are the people that I want to hear just because it's going to make me feel a certain way, a certain kind of reaction at an emotional level. And so for the rational, the people that I really like are, well, as anchors, I like Anderson Cooper. I like Jake Tapper. I'll watch Nicole Wallace anytime anchoring a program about politics. I think she's a rising star in the U.S. political journalism kind of field. For reporting, I like people like Caitlin Collins a lot. I think that in the last two election cycles in particular, we've seen a growing number of really top-notch professional women journalists who've driven great coverage,

who really know the craft. They stick to, in our reporting, this is what we hear. New York Times has a good number of those as well, not just women, but obviously men as well. So the New York Times reporters, I probably won't see that much unless they're on the panels, but I'll be looking for the Caitlin Collinses, the Brianna Keillors. And the other aspect of the rational coverage is there are three individuals who really look at the data in a microscopic way and try to extract trends

and report them to us in ways that really are hard for other people to do. John King on CNN, Harry Enten on CNN, and Steve Kornacki on MSNBC. All three are top flight. They've covered the polls. They know the counties to watch. And they're going to be able to kind of give us a sense, especially in this really unusual race where we don't know whether the ballots that are being counted are the ones that were cast today or cast today, but also cast earlier. And so helping us with that is going to be really important. And I have a lot of confidence in them.

And then finally, for the emotional thing that I'm looking for, and I'm obviously I'm one of those 75 percent of Canadians who would not be a Trump voter tonight. But I have been a progressive conservative in the past. I've worked for progressive conservative leaders, and I'm kind of in that center of the spectrum. I really identify with people like Mike Murphy and Steve Schmidt and Rick Wilson and Nicole Wallace, three of those have been involved in the Lincoln Project, who have a lot to say about what Trump has done to their party and what he's done to the view, you know, to the idea of conservatism. And they're also just super funny and acerbic and articulate.

And finally, on the Democrat side, I think David Axelrod is easily the best of a good field of Democratic analysts and funders who appear on these shows. And I'll be very attentive to what he has to say tonight, too. What about you? Who do you like? Who do you pay attention to? I like a lot of the same people.

You know, it's funny you mentioned David there at the end. And I was talking to him just the other day he wanted to be on uh the race next door and he probably will be in the in the days ahead but he's juggling so many things he's got his own podcast he's you know totally committed to cnn he's doing all kinds of things for for cnn and good for them for using him because he is terrific with terrific insight. And as partisan as he is, he's also pretty damn realistic. You know, he calls it the way he sees it, not necessarily the way he wants it to be. And that's what you're looking for on nights like this.

On the others, you know, I love Steve Schmidt. I've never seen anybody like Steve Schmidt in our business, who you can say, Steve, give me two minutes on why Trump is a dick. He'll give you, bang, two minutes. He won't pause. He won't stumble. It'll just come out like he'd written it. And on anybody else, too.

I mean, he's just as harsh on some of his own, you know, colleagues from the past in terms of the Republican side. I mean, he's a former Republican. He's at least not a Trumper. That's for sure. He hates Trump. He's at least not a Trumper, that's for sure. He hates Trump. He's a poet when it comes to Trump. I love that. You know, I think part of it is because he was so close with John McCain

and he cannot stomach the fact that Trump said the things he said about a guy who he clearly loved. Beyond that, in terms of people, Brian Williams is a friend of mine who's kind of the main anchor on the MSNBC side, although in a way he's been kind of eclipsed in this election by the three really top-notch female commentators, and Nicole Wallace, who I think is great, former Republican,

hard-hitting, smart, really smart. The other two, you know, I go back and forth on. The other two women who are with Nicole, I find them almost too emotional. You're looking for emotion, and I get it on like this, but I find them at times kind of too emotional to the point that it kind of warps their analysis. Beyond that, it really is the commentators. Who has the best ones?

You talk about the new crop of young journalists who've come out in the States, and there are some who are, you know, at times aligned with the two networks that we're going to probably spend most of our time watching, CNN and MSNBC. Alexei McCann, the Axios group, I think is, you know, they've got a real stable great young

journalist uh alexi mccammon who is often on msnbc she's still in her 20s she talks like she's in her 40s like she has a great grasp of the strategic operation and in politics jon Jonathan Swan, also from Axios. Jonathan Swan, yeah. Really good. Great job. You wonder how long it's going to be before somebody snaps them up full-time in one of the networks because they're good, solid journalists. So listen, there are lots of smart people who will be on television tonight and will be available online in terms of using your phone to watch the story unfold.

The thing about election nights, and let me tell you that as somebody who's done enough of them, election nights are the biggest program in a television cycle. They come every four years in this country too, unless, you know, the minority situation. And careers can be made or broken on election night. I'm telling you, you know, you can stumble or give bad analysis or make some stupid mistake and people will never forget it because it is the night that everybody's watching in some form or one way or another. They're watching one network or another network or whatever.

And the story travels and it sticks with you forever. You know, you mentioned West Island vote. Yeah, yeah, that's right. I was right on that. The West Island vote. What are you talking about? He's talking about the 1995 referendum when it looked like the Pays de Québec side was going to win that referendum for a good chunk of the early part of the evening.

But what I knew was that the vote from the West Island, Montreal, which was heavily on the Federalist side, had not been, it may well have been counted, but it wasn't in yet. And so the things were going to change. And then suddenly they did start to change. Jason Moskowitz and myself were both sitting there talking about that fact of the West Island vote. So anyway, when it did come in, the Federalist side just eked ahead.

You mentioned I'll just do one other person. It's kind of anecdotal, really. It's John King. John King and Steve Kornacki especially, these two guys have made a fine art out of understanding the country and the way it breaks down into red and blue states and red and blue counties and how that can change on a night like this. I remember John King when I was based in Washington for much of kind of 1986 and 1987,

covered Iran-Contra and various other things in the Reagan government as a correspondent in Washington. And I remember meeting John King a number of times. He's the first thing that strikes you about him, I mean, he's a powerful figure. He looks like a football player, like kind of a running back type guy, but he's quite short, all right? Not that there's anything wrong with that, but he's quite short. So that's the thing about television.

You sort of assume in your mind, and radio too, you kind of have a picture of the person, and then when you meet them, they're nothing at all like you thought they were going to be. But anyway, John in those days were still early days for CNN, and he was a Washington correspondent, and he was sort of trying to find a groove for himself, a niche area, and this turned out to be it.

And he's made a career out of being the guy who not only knows how to technically use the board they stick in front of him, but what it means. Here's a quick question for you. Why is it red? And why are conservative colors in the States red and liberal colors are blue where everywhere else in the world it's the opposite including here in canada i don't know i was gonna try to figure that out at some point because i keep getting it reversed in my mind because you're absolutely right we're so used to red meaning left of center and blue meaning right of center here and it means exactly the opposite there so i don't have the answer but maybe i'll have the answer tomorrow apparently apparently it started

in 2000 which is you know recent really it wasn't the case before and it's suddenly it's now all about red states and blue states but it is i have to do the same thing. I have to keep saying, wait a minute, this is the wrong way around. It's not right. Anyway, okay. So now the more interesting part. Well, it's all interesting. But, and I don't think we can go through everything here, but in terms of, especially if you're sitting down, you're watching,

polls start closing at 7 o'clock and there's some very interesting things happen almost right away. What are you going to be watching for specifically? And maybe give a couple of examples. I don't want to hear the 16 things that Bruce Anderson's looking for, but the kind of things that can help viewers who are, as they sit down, looking for an early indication based on something. Yeah, I think that there are three categories of things, and I'll keep it short. First of all, everybody says swing states, and we know that there's maybe up to eight. But Florida, Georgia,

and North Carolina, if Biden wins one of those states, he's maybe up to eight. But Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, if Biden wins one of those states, he's probably going to win the presidency. So let's keep an eye on those. And those all come out early too, right, Bruce? They're like there in between seven and nine o'clock. You're going to know. Florida is always tricky.

Yeah, that's right. That's right. We're going to hear from Michigan and Pennsylvania as well. But the thing about the Michigan and Pennsylvania votes are if they're not big Republican leads just because of the delay in counting the early ballots, then that's a bad sign for Trump and a good sign for the Democrats. So it's going to be a little bit more confusing, Michigan and Pennsylvania, whereas Florida, Georgia, North Carolina should be pretty clear indications early on of what kind of outcome to expect if Biden's ahead. If he's not ahead, there's going to be a lot of anxiety and maybe it's going to go on for several days. Second thing is states, they're big, but the counties are actually where the action really gets measured. And it's why the Kornackis and the Entens and the Kings really matter. Erie County, Pennsylvania,

Trump won it by 1.6%. It's a big county. There's a lot of people there. If he doesn't do well in that county, he's probably going to lose the state. Peach Countyorgia trump got 50.3 percent of the vote the last time what's interesting about it only 27 000 people and it has tended to be a bellwether for how the state of georgia is going overall i think it's 50 white 40 or 55 white 45 percent uh black uh so peach So Peach County, Georgia, another one. Tarrant County, Texas, which includes Fort Worth. Bush won it with 62%. Trump won it with 52%. Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz of that county, which is a pretty big population county, has been changing as well. And if Texas is going to move, Tarrant County is going to be one of those places that causes it to move. And then last in Florida, there's Broward County. And really the question there is, will it be strong Biden as it has been strong Democrat? Will those Cuban-American voters kind of pull towards Trump a little bit?

That'll be a bad sign if that happens for the Biden campaign. And then Duval County, which includes Jacksonville, 400,000 people in that county. Trump won it by 6,000 votes. So it could be a real important swing area for him. And then the last thing, the third thing is really the Senate race. A big question for a lot of people is if the Democrats win the White House, but don't swing the Senate, we're going to have a lot of political friction and a lot more division. And so there's a lot of people kind of wondering how those Senate races are going and the ones to watch I think Colorado Cory Gardner Arizona

Martha McSally North Carolina Tom Tillis the two senators from Georgia Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue Maine Susan Collins and Iowa Joni Ernst There are more Republican Senate seats up for grabs this time, and there are more of them in jeopardy than the Republicans would have thought there would have been two years ago. So we'll see how those Senate seats go, but those are the ones that I'm watching, the counties that I'm watching, and the states that I'll be watching too.

What about you? Man, you really did your homework. I'm very impressed. There's a lot in there and you know i want to say that oh yeah i feel exactly the same way as you but i do on a different level okay so here's the way i'll be looking at it seeing as a lot comes out early i'm not suggesting this is going to be settled early it could be uh but there is actually a lot of stuff to sink your teeth into in those first hour or two.

I'll be looking a lot at Georgia because I think Georgia signals to us the way things could unfold in a couple of different areas. Immediately to the south is Florida. Florida will be close. It always is close. It's rarely more than 100,000 votes separate the two parties,

and the Republicans usually have the advantage in Florida. But watch the Gulf Coast especially in Florida because when that went Trumpian last time, that was a game-set match against Hillary Clinton. So watch that. Northwards from Georgia, you've got North Carolina. Now, if Georgia looks like it's going to Biden, which will be a surprise, which will be an upset,

it could very well signal things happening in both Florida and North Carolina. And as Bruce said, if Biden wins one of those three, that could signal a really good night for Biden. But the other thing about it is a lot of those people, especially in Florida along the Gulf Coast, they come from the Rust Belt states. They've moved there and retired there from, you know, the Pennsylvanians and the Michigans and the Wisconsins, especially Wisconsin. So if Biden is doing well in Georgia and, as a result, also in Florida,

it could signal good things in those three Rust Belt states, two of which are already kind of assumed are going to go to Biden, Wisconsin and Michigan, but Pennsylvania is still somewhat up in the air. But here's what else happens with Georgia. If Georgia is going Biden, then it's a good reason to be expecting something happening in Texas, as Bruce mentioned, and in Arizona. I mean, Georgia, depending on how it goes, and we'll see it fairly early, could signal a big night for Biden. Or it could signal, hey, he didn't deliver in Georgia. And Trump could be the first good sign for Trump on the evening.

So that's why I'm kind of watching Georgia. Okay, last point. People actually want to watch the show as opposed to just being told how to watch the show. Here's the important question. What are you going to eat tonight? Well, it's funny you should ask that, Peter, because I live in Ottawa, and of course there's a fantastic new Italian restaurant

that has put together a wonderful menu of things that you can just eat and eat at home. It's called GX Cantina. You better give the full disclosure. You've actually just become a partner with me and a few other people in this adventure that we're undertaking in the middle, maybe hopefully we're past the middle of a pandemic, which some people stopped me and said, it's an odd time to open up a business like this. But, of course, we're not really doing in-house feeding now, but we are preparing some amazing meals, and I'll be getting some of that.

And too bad you won't because you're too far away. But thank you for asking. Yeah. You know, the one thing this podcast has prided itself since it began is it doesn't have a sponsor, and it still doesn't have a sponsor. However, we, because of our personal interests, our sponsoring,

you better give the full name. Uh, once again, it's Gia. It's Gia Cantina on bank street in the Glebe where you grew up and where I lived for many years. And, uh,

where I have lots of friends. All right. So I feel not guilty at all. And I'm pointing you in that direction if you live in that area. Anyway, listen, Bruce, this has been great. It's going to be fun watching tonight. I mean, here's our plan.

I mean, if this thing somehow resolves itself early in the evening and we're not stuffed full of great food and, you know, the odd whiskey or a glass of wine, we may try and do something later tonight and put it out there so you have something to listen to in the morning. I wouldn't bet heavily on that option, but it is an option. If not, we'll definitely be around tomorrow with the post-mortem on all this. So, Bruce, thanks very much.

Have a good time tonight watching all this unfold. I'm sure we'll talk at some point during the evening. But thanks for this great insight, as always. Yeah, thank you, Peter. Great to talk to you again soon. All right, that's it for the Race Next Door special in the Bridge Daily for this day.