The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - An Uncertain World Grows More Uncertain

Episode Date: May 21, 2024

It was a remarkable weekend for events.  Events that have made the situation in the Middle East even more uncertain in what to expect next.  A helicopter crash in a remote region of Iran takes out ...the country's leadership, and a decision from prosecutors at the International Criminal Court has put the leadership of Israel and Hamas on notice.  What happens now?  Dr Janice Stein makes her regular weekly visit with her analysis.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. There's a lot of uncertainty in the world. After the weekend, that's an understatement. Coming right up. And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. Hope you had a great long weekend. Victoria Day yesterday. Hope you enjoyed some good weather. It was good weather here.
Starting point is 00:00:33 Hope it was good weather there. Wherever you happen to have been. Okay, we're going to get this week started. We have a big episode with Janice Stein today. As you know, she's usually Mondays, but yesterday was day off for most of us. So Janice is by today and we have a full pack show because it was quite the weekend. Before we get there, I should give you a heads up with this shortened week as to what the question of the week is.
Starting point is 00:01:05 All right? This is a good question, but you don't have a lot of time. You've got until 6 p.m. tomorrow night, Eastern Time, to get your answers into this question. Here is the question. Name one thing that you're doing to deal with higher prices these days. We all talk about inflation. We all talk about the impact those high prices are having on everything. So name one thing that you're doing that helps you deal with higher prices these days.
Starting point is 00:01:40 You have some secret. Let's share it. Okay. One more time with the question. you have some secret. Let's share it. Okay? One more time with the question. Name one thing you're doing to deal with higher prices these days. In by 6 p.m. Eastern Time tomorrow. Make sure you include your name, the location you're writing from. Write to me at themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com.
Starting point is 00:02:08 themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. And, you know, keep it tight. Once again, not looking for the big, long, essay-type answers. We're looking for, give me that one thing. Tell me what it is. Share it with us. If you've found some way to navigate the waters of inflation and high prices, even in just one area, share it.
Starting point is 00:02:32 Let's hear it. Okay, there's your question of the week. And that will be revealed on Thursday on your turn, along with the random renter. So looking forward to getting your cards and letters through email in the next 48 hours. All right, let's get to Janice because, as I said, there are a lot to talk about.
Starting point is 00:02:55 If you've followed the news over the weekend, and I know most of you do, even on holiday weekend, you know that there was quite a weekend of moments, of events. So let's get Dr. Stein's view of things. Remember, Janice is with the Munk School, the University of Toronto. She's not only a great academic, she's Middle East expert, conflict management expert, foreign affairs analyst, you name it, she does it. So here we go, Janice Stein.
Starting point is 00:03:38 So there's no doubt that we live in a world of uncertainty. It's been that way for quite some time, but it seems to me that over the weekend it became a lot more uncertain. A number of things, they all seem to have some impact on the Middle East story. So let's deal with them one at a time, in no particular order, because I think they're all, you know, have potential to be serious problems.
Starting point is 00:04:03 Excuse me. Let's start with the International Criminal Court. They decide they want to prosecute, charge the leaders of Israel and Hamas with war crimes. This has been talked about, you know, for some time over the past few months, but now they're actually saying they're going to do it. Are they going to do it? Great question.
Starting point is 00:04:33 The prosecutor wrote precedent to Peter, not only in the charges, but in the way he revealed them. Let's just talk over this for a moment. In a live interview on Siena, before the judges approved the charges, you have to stop over that one. Given the stakes here and the order of magnitude of the charges, it is absolutely unprecedented to do this. So what he said is he intends to charge.
Starting point is 00:05:08 There are three judges. These judges have to decide that there's enough evidence to proceed. And we just don't know. There's no way of knowing. What really happens here is he protected himself. There were eight justices that he constituted as an advisory committee. One of them, you know, Amal Clooney, for example, was consulted. And the panel said, yes, they think there's enough evidence. So we will watch.
Starting point is 00:05:50 It would be a stinking defeat for him were the judges not to approve. But in my experience, judges are judges. No matter what country they come from, they are independent. And so there's no guarantee, actually, that this will go forward. I think it's likely, but there's no guarantee. And he did not improve the chances by starting this process off with a link to CNN. Well, let's assume that the charge for a moment,
Starting point is 00:06:29 let's assume the charges do go ahead. What actually happened? What happens at that point? Well, so the ICC has no independent arrest power. Let's start there. It has no enforcement. It has no cops. So it is dependent on the goodwill of its members. Let's start there. It has no enforcement. It has no cops.
Starting point is 00:06:48 So it is dependent on the goodwill of its members. And there are 124 signatories to the treaty. We are one. And as you know well, Peter, we were among the leading states that created the court when Lloyd Axworthy was foreign minister of this country. So what happens? Since they cannot go to Israel or to Gaza to arrest anybody, what this is is a travel ban. To make it very concrete, should the prime minister of Israel come to Canada, Canada, as a signatory to this treaty treaty would be legally obligated to arrest, to detain the Prime Minister,
Starting point is 00:07:33 and would have to send him for trial to the Hague. Well, I guess he won't be coming here anytime soon. Did the Americans sign this or no? No. No, the Americans are not signatory to the treaties. And again, at this very early stage, they came out en masse yesterday from the president on down with deep criticism of the charges on two grounds, really. One, they do not consider them appropriate. And two, there was a visceral reaction to what they considered equivalent, you know,
Starting point is 00:08:17 charging Hamas and Israel at the same time. From their perspective, it seem to draw equivalence. They made very clear that should Netanyahu come to the United States, under no circumstances would they rest. I suspect, Peter, we're going to have debate in the House of Commons. I don't think there is unity across the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party on this issue as well. So I think this one will come home as well. Is there any precedent to this?
Starting point is 00:08:57 Oh, yeah. There were lots of people being charged before by the criminal court, but a situation like this where the kind of both sides, the two combatants, so to speak, in terms of their leadership being charged, is anything like that before? No. No, no. You know, Louisa Arbour, who's also very well known to Canadians, was the prosecutor at the first ad hoc tribunal for Yugoslavia, which preceded the creation of the court. And she charged Milosevic during the war and succeeded.
Starting point is 00:09:39 Of course, the judges approved the allegations. That was only one party. And even then, there was a heated debate. Do you do this during wartime? And what's at the core of that debate, Peter? Do you make a ceasefire harder? Do you reduce the incentives on the part of Netanyahu to come to the table if effectively he's charged with war crimes and risks arrest every time he leaves the country.
Starting point is 00:10:10 And there are many who believe you wait, you wait. The other side of the argument, no, you don't wait, because these charges actually can stop the kind of behavior that led to the allegations in the first place. It's a rough one. I'm on the side. You know, justice and peace don't always walk together in lockstep. They compete at times. And given what's going on in Gaza and what is happening to the Palestinian population
Starting point is 00:10:47 in Gaza, if I were the prosecutor, I would have waited and I would have done everything possible to give a ceasefire a chance, no matter how tough that process is. Well, this lands on the Israeli side at a very interesting time because finally, some would say, Benny Gantz, part of the war cabinet, the coalition war cabinet of Netanyahu, Gantz has given a date in about two weeks' time, less than two weeks now, well, about two weeks, that Netanyahu has to deliver a plan for post-war Gaza.
Starting point is 00:11:31 And if he doesn't, Gantz is going to walk out of that coalition. Now, there's been a lot of pressure on Gantz from a lot of people, both in and outside Israel, that he's got to make a split from Netanyahu, that that would be the thing that could bring Netanyahu's leadership to a conclusion. So this happens like the day before the court, the prosecutor at the court makes his decision. What do we make of this, the Benny Gantz move?
Starting point is 00:12:03 And I was going to say, how real is it? It's obviously real, but how far does it go? It's real, as you say. And it really, and let's add one more piece to this mix. The Minister of Defense from the time he gotolan, who's charged, by the way, he's one of the two who's charged in Israel, added his voice to the mix before he was charged, by the way. He made the same comment. He wants a political plan for the day after, whatever that means now.
Starting point is 00:12:45 And he went even further. He wants the commitment from Netanyahu that there will not be any military occupation of Gaza by Israel after this, that there will be a withdrawal. So talk about a pincer movement. Right? Right? There are only three elected politicians in that war cabinet, Netanyahu, Gallant, and Benny Gantz. Two of them have now come out and challenged him with a timeline.
Starting point is 00:13:19 We need a plan. I think Benny Gantz will leave if he doesn't have it. This is a decision that the cost to him and his party are so great that he's going to leave the war cabinet, even though that will bring to power, that will leave Netanyahu unconstrained, really, by anything. So I think he will leave. Doesn't bring down the government because it's not a war cabinet that brings down the government. It's the regular cabinet. So when Gans leaves, and if Netanyahu doesn't get any concessions, because he's worried about the army. That's why he thinks the army is on a mission now to have to go back and back and back. It clears so-called clears territory. Hamas comes in. The army has to go back. So he's speaking
Starting point is 00:14:17 really there with his responsibilities to the army. I think Gall galant opposition is more serious these two men acutely dislike each other um but he's from the prime minister's party peter that's what has to happen here there have to be five defections from the prime minister's party to bring this government to an end let me just let me just walk you through one more scenario. The core charged, the prime minister and the minister of defense. In the past, they've always charged authoritarian societies where when you're prime minister or president, you stay for life. I wouldn't bet on these two men being in power a year from now.
Starting point is 00:15:09 I think it's extremely unlikely. But they're charged personally. They're charged as individuals. The country's not charged. What is Netanyahu's resistance to coming up with a post-war plan or for announcing a post-war plan? for announcing a post-war plan? This goes right to his DNA. This has been a 20-year-old struggle for him.
Starting point is 00:15:33 And he does not want an independent Palestinian state. He believes that it is a mortal threat to Israel's long-term security. He doesn't want it. He opposes it. I think it's the one commitment that I could say, honestly, Netanyahu wants help for him too. Everything else is negotiable. But that's the one anchor that shaped his policies. And he does not want, and his constituency does not want Palestinian sovereignty over the West Bank.
Starting point is 00:16:10 That is not the big story for them. It's the West Bank, which is the site of important religious symbols within the Jewish tradition. That's the stumbling block. So how can you apply it for a day after if you don't want an independent Palestinian state? That's your bad block. Is this situation that Netanyahu finds himself in now, the Gantz situation at Galant and the court.
Starting point is 00:16:47 Is this his biggest crisis moment, internal crisis moment since October 7th? No question. No question. I mean, again, it's the biggest crisis moment of his whole career. And it's by far the worst moment since October the 7th. His minister of defense from his own party, his only other civilian partner in the war cabinet, his, the court, I mean, for him, not after there is there's not a long, you know, this is prime minister. I don't believe can last.
Starting point is 00:17:32 I'd be stunned if he were prime minister a year from now, but he can't leave the country. He can go directly to the United States, but that's about it of any major power. He can't leave the country. And once he's no longer prime minister, he faces criminal prosecution inside Israel. So this is a desperate moment for him, Peter. There's no question about it. And the country wants him gone. It is the only thing that unifies this country. There are two things that unify the country right now. Overwhelmingly, they want him gone, and they want the hostages back. So, as we have agreed in the past,
Starting point is 00:18:16 it's all too easy and has been too easy to count Ned Young out. Yeah. But you sound like you are counting him out here. I mean, you've given a one-year timeline, but you sound like you you sound like you are counting him out here i mean you've given a one-year timeline but you're counting him out yeah yeah yeah he he's famous for having nine lives every time people like me have counted him out he rises from the ashes again um that's the record i think this is it and I would count him out. I do not believe he will be prime minister a year from now. Senwa, the Palestinian leader on the ground in Gaza,
Starting point is 00:18:55 is he in his biggest, well, there's nothing quite similar as the Netanyahu situation, but given what's happened to him, the naming of him, is he in a precarious position now? You know, what was interesting was who they charged again. And this has never happened. And, you know, from a legal perspective and from a political perspective, Peter, these allegations against Hamas were important. Because if you look, for instance, at the protest movement that has occurred on campuses like mine, and more generally, it's been genocide in Gaza, right? So just to take a step back for a moment, the prosecutor could have charged Israel with genocide. He did not. The
Starting point is 00:19:45 charges are serious, but they're not genocide. And the charges against Hamas are as serious, if not more. So that puts two sides back in the story, which has largely been absent politically over the last three or four months. And this is really, in a sense, the first time, what language do you want to use here? A resistance movement, a terrorist group, we're describing the same people just from different perspectives, has been charged by the court. Interesting who they charge.
Starting point is 00:20:23 The two senior military figures, that's Sinwar and his brother, Mohammedif, but also Haniyeh, that's a blanket condemnation here. And where this will cause concern again is about the broader political future of Hamas. It's not about only the military. And what this says is the military wing has put the broader political future of Hamas at risk. You know, is Erdogan going to charge Haniyev if he travels? I don't
Starting point is 00:21:12 think so. Is Moscow going to charge him? I don't think so. There are a whole group of countries, Qatar, where they will not, because these are not signatories to the court. But this is a political blow to the legitimacy of Hamas. There's no question. You know what, of course, would be interesting if the Israelis caught Sinwa. Yeah. What are they going to do? Are they going to offer him up to the court while their own guy is sitting in the prime minister's chair?
Starting point is 00:21:53 Wouldn't that be a story, right? And that's why, in a sense, yeah, actually, I think this came truly. I think he should have waited for the ceasefire. And I go back to where we started. What was the rush? Why do you leak this to CNN? Why don't you go the normal routes, frankly? That you would, it would be inconceivable to most judges that you would announce your just imagine Beverly McLaughlin or Louisa Arbour
Starting point is 00:22:28 going on the CBC and saying, I intend to charge. Well, it's one way of killing it too, though. Of course. Yeah. That's why I've said as much as I have about this process. Right. Okay. Let me move to one of the other things that draws huge amounts of uncertainty, the helicopter crash in Iran. I mean, it appears, certainly on first blush, that it was a straight-up weather incident, you know, pilot error or any number of different things. Yeah. But not the conspiracy
Starting point is 00:23:07 side of things, although you always leave yourself open to these things. You do. Amazingly enough, though, Peter, let's just stop on that one for a moment. The Iranians admitted, it was a brief flurry, admitted from almost the
Starting point is 00:23:23 this was a helicopter crash that was due to bad weather i didn't go the conspiracy route which is amazing frankly but they did right um okay um well there's a lot more than wreckage on the side of the mountain there is there are questions that now now raised about what happens in Iran, and I don't necessarily mean the pretenders for the throne, if you will. But also, the pictures over the weekend were impressive in terms of the huge demonstrations that were out, praising Raisa, the president who was killed and the foreign minister.
Starting point is 00:24:09 But at the same time, we know the country's in a struggle over leadership and direction. And, you know, young people want to go in a different direction. What happens here? What do you think this is going to play out? How it's going to play out? Well, the first big decision, and you're right, there was a lot of opposition to AEC. In the first hour, Peter, after the announcement came out,
Starting point is 00:24:37 there were pictures of young people dancing in the streets. Those disappeared very, very quickly. And why so much opposition to IEC in particular? Because he's accused of being one of four clerics that approved the execution of literally hundreds of political prisoners who were arrested on the streets in an earlier round of demonstrations. So he was really, you know, he was the lightning rod for so much opposition. You know, Khamenei is at a moment now. He has to make one big decision over the next few weeks. Voter turnout in Iranian elections has fallen from something like 70% to just 41%. And it is the only way that Iranians can express any kind of dissent
Starting point is 00:25:43 or dissatisfaction with the government. Why is it falling like this? Because under Khamenei, they've narrowed the choices. They have something called the Council of Electors, and they disqualify anybody from competing in the process. There were, even a decade ago, reformist presidents that were able to run in Iran in the elections. No more. Khamenei has to make a real decision now.
Starting point is 00:26:15 Does he broaden out the number of people that he allows to run this time? Or does he continue to do what he's been doing for the last five years and narrow the choice and effectively acknowledge that he has lost the capacity to connect to the Iranian body public? He's unhappy about the low turnout. Does anyone
Starting point is 00:26:46 outside influences try to have an impact on what's going to happen in Iran now? Could be Russia, could be the US, could be China. Does anybody try to influence what's going to happen in the transition here? You know, it's very interesting because there were talks in January and two weeks ago between the United States and Iran that were going on in Oman.
Starting point is 00:27:17 They were leaked, and they were all about avoiding escalation in the current situation. And interesting, of course, that Iran came to the table with the United States. No friend of Iran that is trusted by the government has any interest in democratic elections. Vladimir Putin does not. Xi Jinping does not. You know, the government that's most interesting of all of them is Erdogan in Turkey, who has, you know, maintained an open democratic process in Turkey. He could lose elections, which to me is the kind of minimum criteria. Is it conceivable that Erdogan could lose? Yes. And he's lost control of some of Turkey's big cities. Mayors have been elected that are opposed to him.
Starting point is 00:28:12 He's the only one that could conceivably intervene. But let me put it this way. The club within which Iran moves is not one that is going to warn Khamenei about the danger of narrowing and narrowing the political process. The other big factor here is the Revolutionary Guards have grown more important. As Iran has become more isolated, you know, Peter, just to illustrate, we don't talk about this enough. Iranian currency has fallen 90% in value over the last 90% over the last year. frankly, wipes out. It just does. It wipes out any middle class assets. It destroys property values. It does all those things that we know runaway inflation does. It's so corrosive.
Starting point is 00:29:19 That's going on. There's huge black markets now in Iran. There's black markets in currency. And as this has happened, the Revolutionary Guard has strengthened its influence over Khamenei. And hard to think that there's any opening
Starting point is 00:29:39 in the offing here. Really hard. Well, as I said, as we agreed agreed there's a lot of uncertainty out there yeah i i think what's fair peter they are going to preoccupy they have to elect a new president he's gotta get kick that process off how many um they are going to be more i think what is a fair prediction they're going to be more, I think, what is a fair prediction, they're going to be more consumed with domestic politics, less attention and resources for the short term to the malicious that they support throughout that part of the world as they go through this change. Khamenei himself is old and sick. Let's add that. He's not well. And one of the younger clerics who is competing for this job is his son.
Starting point is 00:30:40 And that's never, never, never a good thing. Because this regime came to power saying they were ending dynastic succession. So the pogs are really going to be tough to navigate. We'll keep an eye on it. We're going to take a break. Oh, yeah. We'll take a break, come back, because there's two other areas that we don't normally talk about that we're going to talk about when we return,
Starting point is 00:31:05 right here with Janice Stein on The Bridge. And welcome back. You're listening to The Bridge, the Monday episode, which is on a Tuesday this week. We hope you all enjoyed your long weekend. So Janice is giving us her time for Tuesday as a kind of kickoff to the week. You're listening on Sirius XM, Channel 167, Canada Talks, or on your favorite podcast platform.
Starting point is 00:31:38 This is kind of a what are we missing episode, but on two countries that are, well, Canada has a bit of a history, certainly in one and a little bit in the other. But let's start off with Mexico, because there's an election coming up in Mexico, and it's interesting the way this one's going. Janice.
Starting point is 00:32:04 There's an election coming up on June the 2nd, Peter, so around the corner. And I think in Canada, we sometimes forget that Mexico is a partner in North America. And the third leg in the most important trade agreement we have, whatever you want to call it, NAFTA 2 or COSMO, whatever name you want to give it. It is still by far our most important trade agreement. And we discovered Mexico when we had to negotiate with Donald Trump last time. So this might be a story that frankly might repeat itself because that agreement is up for renewal in 2026. Not that far off.
Starting point is 00:32:49 So who the president of Mexico will be? This is an election for president. And first, I have to say, two women running in this election. Wow. Well, you know, Mexico has never had a woman president. This is a country with a culture that has, I'm going to choose my words really simply carefully here, and you can re-say it, Peter. You know, there's never been really excited about having women as political leaders. That's why it has happened. But it is this time, and not just any women,
Starting point is 00:33:28 which is really surprising. Love is the other candidate who is not ahead in the polls, is Indigenous. And Claudia Steinbaum is Jewish. So they are breaking the mold in every possible way in selection. Two women, one running against the other, and not part of the political class as you normally think about it in Mexico. And anyway, now, Scheinbaum is the overwhelming candidate.
Starting point is 00:34:03 She's handpicked by AMLO. But here, again, if you were writing the story, it would be such a good one. AMLO populists, you know, campaigns and want support by running for the poor, but against elites and against big business. And very, very successful president inside Mexico, even though he is personally connected in many ways to these elites himself.
Starting point is 00:34:41 He's a technocrat, the least likely person to really do well in politics. She's a climate scientist. She's a nerd. She's a data nerd, right? And it's hard to imagine if you were writing a story like this, you'd never create a character with these attributes to run for president. But she's, it's astonishing, really. She builds hospitals. She's an education nerd. You know, she builds universities. She was environmental secretary in Mexico City, has pushed an environmental agenda, which AMLO hates.
Starting point is 00:35:34 He absolutely hates it in a country where oil is a very important export. And she reduced violent crime in Mexico. So this is a story of somebody who is just breaking the mold. Pro-political junkie? You can't make this stuff up, is all I can say. Well, if she wins, or if the other female candidate wins, of the three countries, Canada, U.S., and Mexico, Canada and U.S. have never had an elected prime minister.
Starting point is 00:36:17 Kim Campbell was there, you know, just voted in by the party, but thrown out by the people. It would be interesting. Who would have bet it right mexico was going to lead the way who was and when i was when i was um you know hinting at this is a machismo society right drug cartels are very powerful in different parts of mexico who would have thought yeah that we would have a presidential race with two women? So we know there is going to be the first elected woman leader in North America is coming June the 2nd in Mexico.
Starting point is 00:36:56 Amazing. Yeah, it is. It's equally amazing on another level what's going on in Niger or Niger, depending on which pronunciation you prefer this country in Africa that Canada has a bit of a history with. But tell us what's happened there because it probably should be making some headlines, which it isn't. Yeah, it's not making headlines, Peter, because's not making headlines peter because
Starting point is 00:37:25 nothing is making headlines now but the middle east and ukraine over and over and it's driving out uh the all these other important stories so there was a coup um in nigeria and the president is under house arrest and in the united, there's congressional requirements that if there is a coup in a country to which the United States is providing aid, the aid has to stop, but the president has to certify that there's a civilian process in transition. Of course, none of that is happening in Niger. But Niger was home to the biggest base for U.S. troops for the last 10 years. It was the linchpin of the American counterterrorism strategy. Obviously, it served intelligence purposes.
Starting point is 00:38:19 You could deploy forces from there. There were over 600 U.S. forces that won 400 in another Indonesia, close cooperation with the previous government. And after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, this was the primary physical location from which the United States monitored all the different branches of ISIS. Following the coup, negotiations failed between the United States and Niger,
Starting point is 00:38:52 and the government, the new government, which is a military government, asked the United States to withdraw its forces. The United States delayed, but those forces are now finally on their way out, and they will be gone by September 15th. The French, who had been there for decades, also have withdrawn. Who's coming in? Something called the Africa Corps.
Starting point is 00:39:21 That may not be known to our listeners. I wouldn't be surprised it is the renamed wagner group um uh yeah right which pregogin pregogin's group exactly so they still exist even though he's gone yeah that's right it's's called the Africa Corps now. And that's in itself such a, frankly, weird name, because the name, the Africa Corps, actually came from Rommel. That's right. The great Nazi general as he was fighting those battles in North Africa in World War II. So this is an Africa that we're not paying attention to.
Starting point is 00:40:13 This is an Africa where Russia has consolidated. China has consolidated the economic relationship. It's the biggest buyer of every critical mineral that is produced in Africa. And these are sewn up long-term contracts, and Russia is consolidating the security relationship. So what does that do? What does that mean? Well, I think that it is really significant for two big reasons.
Starting point is 00:40:45 Africa is the youngest continent in the world. It's the only part of the world where the population is growing. The rest of us are growing. They're growing. And, you know, growth comes with consumption. That's the easiest model for an economy to grow. If there are more people, they buy more, they consume more. And, you know, a consumer economy is the easiest way to generate growth. That's Africa. At a time where, you know, countries that we pay so much attention to,
Starting point is 00:41:20 China, Japan, Korea, South Korea, are aging. are aging. There's one number that struck me. China will have, by some estimates, it is now 1.3 billion. We'll have 600 million by the turn of the next century. The United States and China will be the same size. That's astonishing. We've never had anything like this in peak population. We've never had anything like this, Peter. Africa's growing. And it should be an area that we're all paying attention to and investing in the broader sense. We're not because of its turbulence. And it's home to every critical mineral that we need for the next generation economy. So is the American, the Americans leaving Niger,
Starting point is 00:42:20 but are they staying inside the continent to have some influence they they you know this was their biggest place that they're closing uh and that's why the story to me is such an important one you know in the united states there's always a wake-up moment oh my god and the conversation you know who lost china who lost So the next one will be who lost Africa? And there'll be, we've had who lost Latin America? We've had these conversations over and over as the United States has a very short attention span. So that will come.
Starting point is 00:42:59 But what's so, and this is in a sense, such an important metaphor for the age range. When the United States goes back to Africa, Peter, what does it bring? The resources it brings are a tiny proportion of what China brings. There's a scale problem now. The United States can't compete in the resources that it offers to invest, either from the private sector or public investment. So Africans are looking at this and saying, they don't guarantee our security. They don't guarantee our future economic growth. China does. Russia does. Wow. this is a much bigger story than
Starting point is 00:43:45 I think most people realize, including myself. Are we involved at all? Do we have any influence at all in Africa? I mean, there used to be a time when we did a lot of traveling there. Pierre Trudeau did,
Starting point is 00:44:02 Joe Clark did, and in his nine months, was you know he made that a priority um are we a player at all you know we have a built-in interest we we have built-in advantage peter because we're french-speaking and so much of af Africa is still French-speaking. And we're, along with France, which has fallen into disrepute because of the military interventions, the repeated military interventions. You know, this is Macron's biggest defeat, I think, is the retreat from Africa that's been forced on him by African governments. It's not something that he wanted to do in any way, but it's happened.
Starting point is 00:44:50 So Canada, now the G7 countries, the only French-speaking country, this is a natural area for Canada to focus some sustained attention on, really. Okay. We crammed a lot into our time today. And, you know, we started off talking about uncertainties, and, man, there's a theme through all of this, with the possible exception of Mexico. Right.
Starting point is 00:45:19 We know the outcome. We are going to get a woman president. Yeah. Okay. All right. We'll see where we a woman president. Okay. All right. We'll see where we are next week when we meet again in seven days. Thanks, Janice. Have a good week. Yep.
Starting point is 00:45:33 Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School at the University of Toronto. Another fascinating conversation. Before we sign off for today, because we went long with Janice, a couple of reminders. we sign off for today, because we went long with Janice, a couple of reminders. Question of the week.
Starting point is 00:45:56 Name one thing that you're doing to help ease the pain of inflation, higher prices. What are you doing? Share your secret with us. Okay, not the obvious. Tell us, you know, what you're doing, what you've seen, how you conduct yourself, whether it's at the grocery store, the clothing store, the what have you.
Starting point is 00:46:16 What are you doing to deal with the inflation? Give us one thing that you do that you might want to share with the rest of us. Write to the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. Get your answers in before 6 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow. Don't forget to include your name and your location that you're writing from. And keep it tight. Keep it brief. No essays. All right, that's going to wrap it up for this day.
Starting point is 00:46:42 Thanks so much for listening. I'm Peter Mansbridge, and we'll talk again in about 24 hours.

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