The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - And The Award Goes To ... AstraZeneca!

Episode Date: March 30, 2021

It's hard to imagine a worse rollout than the AstraZeneca vaccine -- what to believe and what to do.  We get some blunt talk from Dr Lisa Barrett of Dalhousie University in Halifax.And in a special guest appearance, we're joined from the US Library of Congress by Winston Churchill!

Hello there, Peter Mansbridge here with the latest episode of The Bridge, where the award for the worst possible rollout of a vaccine goes to AstraZeneca. And I mean really, can you imagine, let's say you decided to put together the best possible advertising people in the world. You got them from New York and London, Toronto, Vancouver, you name it. You got them from all over the world. You put them together in a room and you said, okay, now listen, we want you to design the worst possible rollout for a new vaccine. Worst possible.

This has got to be like absolutely brutal. I wonder if even that group of really bright, smart people could come up with the kind of rollout plan that AstraZeneca has come out with, where it seems like every day, at least every week, there's a different turn in the road on this vaccine. And yesterday was another one of those days. And it was Canada that kind of led the way in making people doubt whether this vaccine is what it's cracked up to be. Hey, I've got it in my body. I was injected with AstraZeneca about 10 days ago now,

and so are an awful lot of my friends. So what are we? Are we supposed to be worried? Are we supposed to be panicking? Man, it really depends on who you listen to right so we're going to try and sort some of this stuff out today we're going to try and put it in some kind of context there's no denying that this has been screwed up because it has been but how concerned should we be

I think that's really the key question now because not all the experts agree on this even in Canada yesterday between the two different bodies of health experts there seemed to be some disagreement. So we go where we often go. We stay away from the politicians

and we go to the front line. We go to the doctors. The infectious disease specialists. This is what they do. This is their life. Dealing with these kind of viruses and dealing with the way to fight them. And as you know, over the last months,

we've got this kind of small coterie of infectious disease specialists. They all know each other. They don't always agree with each other, which is great. You know, you want some kind of discussion and debate. But we've had Lisa Barrett in Halifax at Dalhousie University, Zane Chagla at McMaster University in Hamilton, Isaac Bogoch, University of Toronto, and Lenora Saxinger in Edmonton at the University of Alberta.

They've been helping us off and on throughout all this. Try to talk to at least one of them each week about kind of where we are on things. So last night, I tracked down Lisa Barrett in Halifax. I said, we got to talk about this. And she said, absolutely. Let's talk about it. So here we go.

Dr. Lisa Barrett from Dalhousie University in Halifax, infectious disease specialist, and someone who has been a great help to us. Let's talk. All right, Dr. Barrett, what am I supposed to believe about AstraZeneca? Well, I would believe that it's gone into millions and millions and millions of arms and produced a lot of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

And that in the vast, vast majority of people, it produces good antibodies and doesn't cause problems. But I do think that there is something real that's being investigated with this very particular type of one very specific autoimmune type of blood clot that has happened in some women below 55. And I do think it is a good idea to hold using vaccine in younger people for the moment but you know you've got to agree that it just seems like every second day there's something about astrazeneca which leads one to believe why would anybody take it right now no matter how old they are yeah that's a great point And if this was any other time, we would all sit around and figure all this out over the course of six months and then go forth. I don't know that we need six months. I think there are good reasons to take this vaccine. Several of them include one if you live in an area where your risk of getting

covid or let's not forget covid itself causes blood clots so if your chance of getting covid and or a blood clot from covid is higher than say four in a million or 10 in a million which is the rate of complication we're talking about with this vaccine then it would make pretty darn good sense to go ahead and get the vaccine so that's a really good time to get this vaccine and to use this particular one and then number two is that it can get to more places than some of the other vaccines now the moderna and pfizer have changed their stipulations on storage now so it is a little more amenable to travel however it isn't quite as user-friendly as the astrazeneca at this point and so therefore if you're in a very

remote area where it's difficult to get vaccine in then maybe this is going to be something that you're still going to use, of course, in the group that's greater than 55. But your point's very well taken. I think it is great for people to go through this process and understand their risk with their health provider or someone they trust. I would prefer people not just back away from the whole thing altogether. Go through your risk assessment, figure figure it out for yourself and then sit down and decide what you want to do wait a little bit or go ahead but for people over 55 i do feel comfortable with it you can see though what it's what it's contributing to the the whole vaccine hesitancy thing i mean whether you've taken it or not whether you've had the first dose and you start worrying about now

whether I should take the second dose, do I want to risk taking the second dose? I mean, if you've taken the first dose, I guess you have a choice, but it's not like you can take something else to be the second dose. You got to take, or am I i wrong there we don't know yet so those studies are ongoing um particularly in the uk they're doing quite a large mix and match

study um this is not unusual in different types of vaccinations like the pneumonia shot or pneumococcal vaccines we specifically do different vaccines for the first and second shots so this is not a new concept it might actually be a good idea we just don't have those data yet the key part for people to know is that if they do end up having to get a different second dose than the first dose that it actually may be not only okay it it's probably very, very likely to be very safe. It's how well it works is the big question. And it is likely to work probably pretty well. And again, you may have to think about delaying doses, of course, out to that further time point. And if that happens as well that really usually

doesn't affect safety only what exactly your antibody levels are they might not be perfect but we can always boost people later as well and chances are as we move through this pandemic we're going to need to start changing our vaccines to accommodate some of these new variants that are around who knows you might even get the variant vaccine if you were to wait a little longer but jokes aside i think it's important for us all to remember one safety first two as you can tell people are being very cautious so if the decision is go forth with the greater than 55, I think people should feel okay about that. We're being very cautious. And then number three,

do accept vaccine, everything to change as we go along, because we're learning so much so fast and so quickly. And that's actually a good thing, not a bad thing in some ways. If this had gone with no changes at all, I would say we were missing things. And so I'm really actually quite glad that our systems of notification are working. I set my table for everything pandemic to be changed. And if the vaccine structure and how we roll it out hadn't changed at all, I would have been very, very concerned as opposed to seeing it change. I think I find that a little more reassuring and I should hope that people expect everything pandemic changes along the way. Let me put you on the spot just a little bit and ask you, should they consider shutting it right down until they are much more

aware of what the situation is with astrazeneca in other words say you know what we're pulling it off until we have 100 certainty around these issues the thought crosses my mind frequently the thing that keeps me from saying that that's probably the absolute best idea right now at least is that number one there really and truly have been millions and tens of millions of doses given with a high degree of safety and lots of good effects in the countries where they've actually watched their rates of covid infection go down around the vaccination. So that's a really good reason to keep using it. The second reason I would say we should consider that is that who are we unduly disadvantaging if we stop it altogether? And that would be places where people don't have either the social structures or

supports or ability to do all those other covid prevention things to keep their case numbers low and so then what we would be doing is actually creating a deficit of vaccine where the risk is very high without a big governmental societal support way of fixing it and watching cases blossom even further and you know at a country level at an equity level i think that would be a disservice in those areas um but having said that um I don't think that we should just truck all of our AstraZeneca off to somewhere else. So someone else who has to use it gets to use it. I think then that's going to bring up a lot of questions about how we are

good global citizens with our access to other vaccines and how we manage what we ship where in the world. So that wasn't a straightforward answer, but I hope it does highlight a couple of the complexities that just pulling it won't solve our global pandemic problem and we have to be global citizens too. Okay, let me ask you one last question. And here's where I feel for you

and the other infectious disease specialists because you're kind of left holding the bag in this one, trying to explain it to people. And I'm wondering, like, who's failed on the communications front in dealing with this issue? I mean, I even heard the Premier of Ontario today saying, gee, I don't think I'll take the AstraZeneca. I don't want to roll the dice. I'll wait until, you know, I'll wait for my turn on Pfizer and something. And you go, really? Did he really say that?

But it's not just the political figures. It's the company. Like, I mean, why are you guys left having to explain this? And it seems like those who should be responsible for a much better communication strategy are failing us on this. Yeah. I guess I put you even more on the spot with that. But I do feel for you guys because you're left explaining it. So I think part of the challenge for some of us,

let me just say part of the challenge for me, I won't speak for others. I don't control the early messaging and the mass messaging. And I will be honest, I don't think people have set the table well enough around the fact that if this is going well expect change we're used to typical rollouts of vaccine programs we're used to typical approvals of drugs i expected all

this to change and it gets lost in the noise i think we could have done a better job all together with setting people with expectations. I think that's gone poorly at a government level, but you're right. The companies should very much have been on top of small things, not a small thing, but, you know, making sure the right data went to the FDA for their review, for example. So whoever's in their data analytics company, part of that company,

really needs to find another plan for their life career. They should not be doing that job. And I do think that has hurt things. But to be honest, we haven't done a great job of keeping on top of reminding people, you know, this is all going to change and change quickly just as quickly as we learned about the virus and learned what the disease was and what the disease wasn't we should expect this to change and i intend to keep i kept saying it but i wasn't being you know as we lulled into the middle didn't say it enough because people wanted to be hopeful and encouraged. We need to make sure people understand that this is a learning period. I won't call it a human experiment, but it is a tad experimental in terms of how you roll things out, the systems, the structures, and the communication, and expect that to

keep changing. So we haven't done super well, not as infectious disease people, but at the core level of the people that are rolling this out across the country, governments need to be clearer with people about what to expect. And when you just want to be the person putting high numbers up and saying you're the best at rolling something out and not setting people up for reality, I think that they didn't do a great job there. Listen, thank you for your insight on this and your frankness on it as well, because I think that more than anything is what people need right now. And you've certainly given us that tonight. So thank you. No problem.

Always here to help. Dr. Lisa Barrett in halifax you know i've i've said this before and you've um you know you've heard me say it before but when i do an interview if i'm lucky enough to to achieve a pause in the interview. In other words, when the person I'm interviewing has to pause for a moment before they answer. When that happens, I really feel that I've achieved something. I love that moment because it tells not only me, but it tells the audience, this isn't a pat answer. This is somebody who is an expert in their field, who is really thinking through whatrett pause for a moment to properly frame the answer in the way she wanted to.

And even that one moment near the end where she just kind of like sighed. Yeah. I love that. And as always, I deeply appreciate her time as I do with all the infectious disease specialists that we talk to. Let me tie off a couple of pandemic vaccine questions. As you can imagine, people around the world who are expert in these fields and are responsible for policy and actions are going through a number of scenarios sort of a plan a plan b plan c in terms of what could happen in the future and i noticed this one in bloomberg the other day uh by andreas cluth and you know you can say oh man this is like the worst case

scenario but at least they're thinking these things through. Andreas Cluth cautions that as coronavirus mutations are pitted against vaccinations in a global arms race, institutions across the world should prepare for a permanent pandemic and consider the possibility that the world might never return to normal. He writes that resilience demands that we include this new scenario into our planning. Yikes. Well, as he says, you know, you've got to consider all the different options. And that is clearly one of them.

Here's a couple of other things. The Biden administration and private companies are working to develop a standard way of handling credentials, frequently referred to as vaccine passports. We've talked about this on this program in the last couple of weeks. Vaccine passports that would allow Americans and Canadians and whoever is traveling to prove that they have been vaccinated

against the novel coronavirus as businesses try to reopen. The Washington Post reports that officials have warned of the confusing array of efforts underway to create credentials with some concerns being voiced that if such a document is mandated, then it becomes a credential. It becomes, you know, remember all those movies of countries that are really,

you know, cracking down on people within that country. And you see the situations where, you know, some military official or police official comes up to somebody and says, I need, show me your papers. I need your papers. Well, is that what we'd be heading towards if we had vaccine passports? Do you have to carry around with you all the time that people could come up at any time and say, show me your papers? That could be dangerous. And it could turn off people.

Here's another point. Let me just find it. So far, demand from people who are desperate to get vaccinated has outstripped supply of the drugs. And when vaccine appointments are released, they are quickly scooped up. That's the situation we see right now, right? We've got like, what was it, 80,000 people

on some kind of wait list in Toronto the other day. But jurisdictions across the united states at the moment may soon face the opposite problem as production ramps up the us will soon have many more doses and not enough people who want them boy can we be lucky enough to get to that situation soon? We can find something to do with those extra doses. We can give them to countries that need them. Because here's this fact at the same time. The New York Times reports that residents of wealthy

and middle-income countries have received about 90% of the vaccines delivered so far. At least 30 countries have not yet injected a single person. Under current projections, many of the rest will have to wait for years. Years. And one last thing. The emergence of COVID-19 caused a subtle shift in the American national conversation toward portraying anyone over 60 as having one foot out of the door.

And some employers began using COVID-19 as an excuse to get rid of older workers. That's in a new study by the Financial Times. That's not good. Because for years, if not decades, we've been working the opposite direction, right? Working longer, not shorter. All right. That's a number of things to talk about in terms of the pandemic and the

vaccine. We're going to take a quick break, but when we come back, we're going to be joined by Winston Churchill. That's right. Talk about one foot out the door. We're going to hear from Winston Churchill in a moment. And I know there are some people who really don't like Winston Churchill for a lot of different reasons, and some of them very legitimate. I kind of sit on the other side of the fence because I see a certain period of time in his life, basically a year, 1940, where he was incredible and may well

have saved the Western world as we know it from Nazi aggression. And so, of course, that is the lens at which I usually look at Winston Churchill. But I do not ignore the fact that there were other times in his life, especially you were with us, I included a couple of clips from the newly documented U.S. Library of Congress insertions into their library, their audio library of certain key elements in the history of that country where they've got the actual recordings of different things. And yesterday we played Roger Maris' 61st home run in 1961,

beating the Babe Ruth record in that great fight with Mickey Mantle. We also played Louis Armstrong, When the Saints Come Marching In. So there were 25 new recordings placed into the Library of Congress this year, and this is one of them. And it's Churchill. But you've got to kind of set the time. Shortly after, within days after the attack on Pearl Harbor, which brought the U.S. into the war and may well have really saved Britain. Churchill made it clear to Roosevelt, FDR, that he wanted to come to Washington to be with him for Christmas.

Now, Churchill had just met Roosevelt in Newfoundland, off the coast of Newfoundland, a couple of months before that, which was a big key meeting. And risked, you know, it's too dangerous. You're going to have to cross the North Atlantic again. That takes 10 days. The U-boats are out there. It was one of the worst times. We're talking December 41, one of the worst moments in the U-boat war where they were sinking hundreds of thousands of tons of Allied shipping.

But Churchill was adamant, I want to come. And so he did. And he took that 10-day voyage across the North Atlantic, arrived on the coast of the U.S., and then took a flight to Washington where he was met by Roosevelt and the agreement was that they would speak to the

world, certainly to the U.S. on Christmas Eve, on December 24th. And so Churchill had a couple of days to kind of get ready. Became known for, you know, kind of walking around the White House grounds. He used a cane. And there was something special about Churchill's cane. I don't know whether you know this. But because of those nights in London during the Blitz,

where he used to like to walk outside um after the bombing to go and see the ruins and lots of areas of london where there was no power on no lighting so at the bottom of his cane he had installed a little flashlight and this was the american media loved this wow churchill Churchill's here. He's got a cane. He's got a flashlight at the end of it. So anyway, he did that. And then on Christmas Eve, they both gave speeches. But as often happens with Churchill, it's the Churchill speech that people remember. And I'm going to run a short excerpt from it now.

It's, I think, 30 or 40 seconds, but it'll give you the sense of that moment in the life of our world. I mean, we tend to look, and understandably so, at the situation today because of the pandemic. Just try to imagine what it must have felt like in the, this was the early days of the war for Americans, right? They'd only been at war for a couple of weeks.

The Brits and the Canadians and the other allied nations had been at it since September of 39. So here we are, December of 41. And Churchill speaks to the American public. Fellow workers, fellow soldiers in the cause, this is a strange Christmas Eve. Almost the whole world is locked in deadly struggle. Armed with the most terrible weapons which science can devise, the nations advance upon each other. Ill would it be for us this Christmas died if we were not sure that no greed for the lands or wealth

of any other people As the nations advance on each other. Imagine sitting at home and hearing that, knowing what it meant in real terms, that it meant enormous conflict, enormous clashes between men and machinery,

and that it would mean countless deaths, thousands, tens of thousands, as it turned out, millions of deaths in the years that followed. So Winston Churchill's voice, now in a number of entries, I'm sure, in the U.S. Library of Congress. And we thank the library for posting these clips, therefore allowing us to use them on occasion, and this was one of those occasions.

All right. That's our edition of The Bridge, the episode of The Bridge. It covers a lot of ground today, actually. I'm still marvel at that interview, the comments of Dr. Lisa Barrett, because I really think it puts this whole situation, not just AstraZeneca, but the whole situation in a context in which we want to spend some time thinking about each of us as individuals and families. It's a big decision to take that vaccine.

And it's a big decision, especially at a time when there is some controversy attached to it. And some of the comments that are being made are being made out of some degree of ignorance and some degree of accuracy. And it calls upon all of us to determine which of those we want to follow. So there you go.

That's the bridge for this day For this Tuesday Tomorrow it's Smoke Mirrors and the Truth With Bruce Anderson joining us from Ottawa Got to talk to Bruce later today And determine what it is We're going to have fun with tomorrow Thursday

Could be any combination of different things Because it's the last day of the week For the bridge Because Friday, Good Friday, we're taking Friday off. So I haven't really decided yet what we'll do on Thursday. It may be some version of the weekend special. So if you have some thoughts on anything you want to talk about, fire away. I actually had a number of comments about roger maris about louis armstrong yesterday so it was great uh it was it was great to receive your your letters on that

but anything you want to talk about fire away the mansbridge podcast at gmail.com the mansbridge podcast at gmail.com tomorrow smoke mirrors and therors and the Truth with Bruce Anderson from Ottawa. Hope you're joining us. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks for listening today. We'll talk to you again in 24 hours. Thank you.