The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Are We Living Through OUR 1930's Moment?

Episode Date: February 24, 2022

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has juggled today's normal lineup around.  Dr Janice Stein, internationally recognized U of T professor of conflict management, joins me after a night of attacks in Ukraine.   Also, some of your best letters in our Mail Bag for the past week, all relate to the trucker's story. 

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. Are we living through our 1930s moment? And hello there, Peter Mansbridge in Toronto on this day for our Thursday episode. And as you know, on Thursdays, we dip into our mailbag, listen to some of your thoughts on some of the issues of the day. But I got to tell you that while we'll still do that today, it'll be shorter than normal because we're going to start on the Ukraine story. And that phrase I use to tease this episode, are we living through our 1930s moment, is something that a lot of people are talking about on this day.

I was up most of the night watching the coverage, and there was some remarkable coverage. I mean, we're living in an era now where, you know, at first I thought back to 1968, when the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia to quell the movement toward liberation of society in Czechoslovakia, and the Soviets cracked down the Warsaw Pact countries that moved into Czechoslovakia with, interestingly enough, depending on where you read, at least as many troops as they've got around, the Russians have around Ukraine today, about 200,000. Four or 5,000 tanks. But then word of the invasion of Czechoslovakia came out very slowly

and one reporter had kind of got to, had great sourcing and was managed to be able to nail it down and confirm that they had crossed the border. Who was that? Canadian, Peter Rehak. Worked for Associated Press, covered Europe. Ended up with the CBC and then CTV. And he's still active now.

No spring chicken, Rehak. But a great journalist. And that was, you know, one of the big scoops of his life, perhaps the biggest scoop, was the Soviets are coming into Czechoslovakia. Well, if you're watching last night, you didn't need a scoop. You didn't need one intrepid reporter.

You just had to turn on CCTV cameras and watch the tanks running through the border. Tank after tank after tank, dozens and dozens, hundreds of tanks coming in at different checkpoints between Russia and Ukraine, between Belarus and Ukraine. So that immediately has begun the discussion about, is this our 1930s moment? You know, for my generation, the generation that followed the greatest generation,

we grew up with a degree of confidence, even through the Cold War, that we were never going to have a 1930s moment. That the world had learned its lesson on how to deal with dictators. And every once in a while, something will come along that will compare to that moment, to the 30s moment. You know, there have been more than a few of them. I guess the one that's talked about most often was in 1990 when Saddam Hussein moved into Kuwait, took over Kuwait. And everybody said, he's another Hitler.

Well, not everybody said that, but that was kind of the line pumped out of Washington for sure. Anyway, the nations of the world, including Canada, got together and kicked him out of Kuwait. Didn't kick him quite far enough because he was back 10, 12 years later with a bogus charge, as it turned out from the West, that he had weapons of mass destruction. And then they dealt with him, finally. But it wasn't a 1930s moment. It wasn't Hitler. So is this a 1930s moment? If you watched any of the discussions of the UN last night,

if you watched Putin's speech last night, you probably would say, you would probably conclude, yeah, you're not kidding, this is a 1930s moment. You know, I watched the emotion on the Ukrainian ambassador's face. You know, Ukraine is a member of the General Assembly, the UN. Russia is a member of the Security Council. You know, the 15 nations, five of which are permanent, Russia being one of them. Ukraine's not a member of that, of the Security Council.

Russia is not only one of the members of the permanent members of the Security Council, it's also the current chair of the Security Council, which, you know, they've been debating night after night the situation around Ukraine. And the chair of the committee is a Russian? Yes, there's no stepping aside saying, you know, perhaps I'm a little biased on this one. In terms of the chairmanship, you never take them out of the permanent seat. Anyway, the Ukrainian ambassador was, you know, as soon as the word came over of the actual invasion,

even though it's been warned of for weeks and weeks, a lot of people thought, he's bluffing. He won't really do it. Well, he did it. And the Ukrainian ambassador at a news conference looked across the room and said, war criminals, and clearly when he used that term, he was talking about Putin. For an invasion that had no reason. They hadn't been provoked into, you know, having to defend themselves. We looked across the room and he said, war criminals go straight to hell.

Remember that clip. We'll see whether that gets used in the future. When that becomes part of one of those documentaries of how the world teetered on the edge of war, or the world ended up in another world conflict. So a lot of people are discussing now whether the post-Cold War era that we've enjoyed through the 90s, not long after the Berlin Wall came down. I was there that weekend, as many of you know, and you felt the world shift.

Through the 90s, we kind of enjoyed that post-Cold War era, and since into the 2000s, with Putin rising, there have been fears that the post-Cold War era was going to win. Well, you know what? It ended last night. We're not in the post-Cold War era anymore. We're in something else. I don't know what they'll call it, but we're in it. Tomorrow, I'm a distinguished fellow. tomorrow i'm um

i'm a distinguished fellow is the term that they used at the monk school of global affairs and public policy and tomorrow afternoon we're having a special discussion which i'll moderate and chair on the ukraine situation timely for sure but i want to get it a for you i wanted to get a slight jump on that by having a quick chat this morning with the founding director of the monk school dr janice stein and janice has been a friend of mine for a long time. 30, 40 years always turned to her for advice at times like this. You know, she's a, obviously she's a political scientist. She's an international expert. She, her various areas include negotiation theory,

foreign policy decision-making, and international conflict management. Well, it sounds to me like we need all of those right now for some discussion about Vladimir Putin and where we're going on this story. So I wanted a short one, short chat, 10 minutes or so before we get to, you know, a few of the letters that came in this week which are all you know which are mostly if not all about truckers which seems like such a yesterday story now but um first of all a quick chat with dr stein so let me get to that. Well, let's get to it right now. Janice Stein, here we go. All right, Janice, I want to start on Putin himself. I mean, you know, people say, well, people, Trump said he's a genius. I wonder on this day, you know, is there something seriously wrong there? Is he stupid in terms

of what he's doing right now? You're asking exactly the right question, because any reasonable calculus of the cost to Russia of doing this, he should have stopped. He could have gotten almost everything he wanted by bringing all that armor up to the border, threatening. It was only a matter of time. He could literally have gotten almost anything that he wanted. I watched that speech, Peter. You watched that speech. Yes, he always gives us a history lesson and a very bizarre kind of history lesson. But this one surpassed anything I'd ever seen him do. And I must say, as others, Macron said yesterday, that Putin has changed, that he's known him for a long time. He's had numerous calls

with him and that he sees a change in Putin over the last several months. And I must say, Putin is a germaphobe to the likes of which you and I cannot conceive of. He's seen nobody literally over the last two years. He's been in extreme isolation. You go through a disinfectant machine in order to see him. His first trip was to the Beijing Olympics. He has five or six former KGB advisors that he sees personally. And you have to ask, has this extreme isolation just disconnected him in a really major way from the kinds of conversations that a president normally might have?

He is cut off. This is the most chilling thing. He is cut off from any critical advice. We saw that acted out in that astonishing event on Monday when the chief of his intelligence services stood up and Putin said, this is all unheard of, tell me what you think. And his intelligence couldn't get the right words out.

And Putin lost his temper in public. And it was broadcast. And you see the fear that his advisors have of him and his capacity to intimidate. He's living in a world now that he's constructed, frankly. You know, you wonder with somebody like that and i mean you know they they wondered about it all through the second world war about how how hitler maintained his leadership uh with those around him and clearly there were attempts to get rid of him uh that that didn't work is putin vulnerable at all to those to those around him including the oligarchs who are about to get

whacked really hard at a certain point they've got to be saying hey you know we're in bed with the wrong guy here this is there's going to be really serious consequences for Russia first of all the oligarchs as, Peter, these are the people who provide the support, the financial support. They are going to get slammed here in the next two days. I mean, this is coming now. There's no delay about this. Secondly, the Russian economy, look what's happened to the Russian stock market and to the ruble over the last week. You know, 40% drop in the Russian market, the ruble on the way down. There are going to be really severe economic consequences.

But you have to ask yourself when you say it's invulnerable, who takes out a president in these kinds of circumstances? And you're right to reference Hitler. You know, there were three or four major attempts by the military, the German military, who understood he was taking them over the edge. They failed. The only people who take out somebody like Putin in a system that he has built are the military.

Not clear that they're anywhere near ready to do that. But there is one thing that just struck me so odd over these last three or four weeks. You know, in Russia, Peter, just like in other countries, they're think tanks, headed by people, same people, run them. And you get to know them over the years. We all know each other. And so there are a lot of conversations in a run-up. Not one of these people, and they're the kind of soft or outward-facing Russian leaders,

but not one of them thought that there was going to be a ground invasion of Ukraine. Not one of them thought that there was going to be a grand invasion of Ukraine. Not one of them, because they know how costly it's going to be to Russia at a huge price. So he may be vulnerable, but much further down the line after the kind of suffering that we're seeing has already taken a huge toll. What about the West and particularly the United States?

As history has shown us in the last half century or more, when it comes to dealing with what was then the old Soviet Union, the resolve wasn't exactly there in 56 when they moved into Hungary, in 68 when they moved into Czechoslovakia, even in 79 when they moved into Afghanistan. The resolve wasn't there. Is the resolve there now? No. No.

No. It's really, it is not there now. So that's why Biden made one big strategic decision, you know, literally at the beginning of this when he said no U.S. troops will go to Ukraine. He drew a line at the NATO perimeter and no U.S. troops and then has threatened economic sanctions. But there is absolutely no resolve. Secondly, one other thing that happened three days ago, as Putin was setting the stage, and this is literally a staged production all along the line, he went into the missile center and supervised personally and there were pictures, supervised personally the launch of a Russian, now we couldn't tell exactly what it was

but it looked like an inter-ballistic missile. He was testing Russian nuclear systems was the story that came out. Now, that was a message aimed squarely at Washington. Lots has changed, but lots has not. The risk of escalation here is just too great. So I think there is no chance of any Western engagement on behalf of Ukraine. All the rhetoric, we stand with Ukraine. Ukraine stands utterly alone in the face of those tanks. You know, Madeleine Albright has a piece today. Yeah.

And she's arguing that this is Putin's big mistake. That he's made the big mistake here in doing what he's done. So I'm trying to follow you. Are you saying

yes, he has? Or no, he hasn't because he might get away with it? Yes, this is his big mistake, but he will get away with occupying Ukraine, because the costs for the mistake are down the road, frankly, their economic. You know, this is going to cut Russia off meaningfully from the West for a decade. That's a huge price.

Russia is already a gas exporter. That's what it is. You know, it's a big gas station, you could say. That's what it does really well in the world economy. Nord Stream, 11 billion, Nord Stream 2, Germany just put a hold on it yesterday. This is going to literally push Russian development, Russian economy backward, cut it off from the West for 10 years. Now, there are enough Russians who care inside. Who cares inside? But the opposition to him, first of all, takes time to build because nobody's serious in Russia

who believes he's going to do this. So they're as shocked as you and I are. It's going to take time to build. And then the tougher part of this is that when you're terrified of your leader, when you feel it's career-ending, it's exile at the best, when you criticize and challenge your leader. We have seen authoritarian leaders stay in power for years and years, long after their best before day, because people are too afraid to mount the attack, frankly. He's right now president for life, Peter. Let me provide a ray of hope here, but I think it's so tenuous. Russian experts who say that this is his legacy movement, that he's done this because losing

Ukraine and losing the Russian Empire, losing the Soviet Union was this, from his perspective, you know, mortal blow, colossal mistake. He's used it every bit of hyperbole that you can pull out of your book. Putin's used to describe the dissolution of the Soviet Union. And this is his legacy. He is going to restore what is rightfully Russian to Russia. Does it stop at Ukraine? Where the NATO perimeter runs really matters here. There is no question that being, and that's why Zelensky wanted to join so badly. But when you have a mutual defense treaty, which we all do in NATO, it's very different

when you attack the NATO member. Ukraine is not one. Let's head to the irony here, Peter, just while we're remembering. When the Soviet Union dissolved, there were many new powerful nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Right. Right. And the United States worked hand in hand with the successor regime in Russia to return, to remove those nuclear weapons from Ukraine and return them to Russia to make sure they were secure and

there would be no accidents. I think were those weapons still in Ukraine, we wouldn't be seeing what we're seeing. That is ironic ironic isn't it Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto

and as always Janice is able to cut to the heart of a story and place us with some of the context. We need to try to understand if understanding is possible on this of where we are. Now, obviously, there are lots more questions and lots more theories attached to this than what you just heard in the last 10 minutes, but that's kind of a starter for you because I know as much as we've been warned about what was likely to happen here,

many of us were hoping that it would be a moment that would pass. Well, it's not. There's a war going on now in Ukraine between Russian forces and Ukrainian forces. And how that's going to play out in the next days and weeks, we don't know. But we will try our best at our little show here at the bridge to keep things up to date. We thank Janice for that. Looking forward to talking to her tomorrow at the Munk School and a number of experts on this issue, and we'll try to get to some of the big questions involved in that.

All right. I'm going to take a quick pause, and then we'll come back with the mailbag, your letters, and I think they're all about truckers. What a shock. Back in a moment. And hello once again, Peter Mansbridge here in Toronto. Got some music from the past there.

Some of the old theme music for the Bridge from its first year. I like to throw that in every once in a while. It's nice to hear. You're listening to The Bridge, the Thursday episode, on SiriusXM Canada, channel 167, Canada Talks, or on your favorite podcast platform. And we're glad you've joined us from wherever you've joined us from. All right. Thursdays are usually your your letters so let's let's try and uh get 10 minutes of of some of your letters once again um i get lots and lots and lots of mail uh every week even you know it seems to more and more every week and the best part is a lot of it is from new listeners.

So always encourage to get them on the program with some of their thoughts. These are in no particular order. I read all the mail that comes in when it comes in. And I pick certain parts of some letters to go on air. So here we go. Diane Sabourin from Winnipeg. This morning I found your conversation with James Moore and Gerald Butts about the state of political life in our country. It left me speechless. How inspiring, illuminating,

insightful, helping me grasp the importance of understanding the big picture. How do you get people like your guests, Moore and Butts, to have a greater influence, for lack of a better word, in the parties they were once part of? Well, they're still part of those parties. They haven't left that. They left partisan politics for an hour with me. And I got to tell you uh i've had more mail about that podcast than anything i've done in the last two years on this on the bridge and still getting it um we repeated it on monday because it was a holiday in most of the country including in ontario and so um you know i've had something like 25 000 downloads of that podcast which is, in podcast terminology, that's huge.

And obviously, it was on SiriusXM as well, so that's had its influence. Anyway, Diane asks, how do you get guests like that? I'm shaking my head. Where are all these people? Is it that they are just pushed aside by a core ideology that focuses on just a party's narrow base? And on what public platform could we have conversations like you just did? Well, I think that's up to all broadcasters who have the time to reflect on things that are going on and know people who they can talk to and who they can encourage to, you know, to shed their partisanship for a while. And, you know, I know both James and Gerald and, you know, I went to them and they didn't hesitate for a minute.

And they both agreed that they will come back on and try and do the same thing every once in a while. You couldn't do that weekly because they are partisans. Let's face it. But they are willing to, you know, once a month or once every couple of months when the issues are there to have that kind of a discussion. And I look forward to it and I thank them for it. Eli Stoiku in Ontario, southwestern Ontario.

Rhetorical question for you. Which country handled things better? France had large anti-mandate protests. Canada had large anti-mandate protests. Canada had large anti-mandate protests. France, police went in with tear gas and batons and quickly dispersed the protests with minimum disruption to society, and the French protests will largely be forgotten

in two to three months. Canadian police and politicians used the kinder, gentler approach to the protests, allowing them to grow and drag on for weeks, causing large disruptions to society, cost the Canadian economy billions of dollars, and badly tarnished Canada's image as a stable, peaceful country in the world's eyes for years and years to come. I don't know. I'm not sure it's years and years to come, and I'm not sure how damaging it was when people actually spend the time

to understand what really happened. But I take your point. France moved in immediately. It was all over in a matter of hours. It was rough and tumble. They didn't, and the French don't, in dealing with their protests, they don't screw around.

It's like, let's get the gas out, let's get the batons out, and deal with these people immediately, which they did. Which is the better way to do it? I guess Canadians will decide that. Jim Dole in Perth, Ontario. Please let me add a comment as someone who has spent his career in the trucking industry. For 30 years, we owned a medium-sized fleet of trucks and employed many excellent drivers. None of my drivers or any of my trucks would have been involved in the so-called Freedom Convoy in Ottawa.

My position is that these protesters have seriously hurt the credibility of an industry that has many legitimate grievances, some of them well worth protesting. That being said, a vaccine mandate is not one of them. As it has been stated many times, close to 90% of drivers are vaccinated and have kept working through this protest. They have been delivering the goods that Canadians need every day without complaint. Issues like over-regulation, soaring equipment, fuel and insurance costs, and a serious shortage of safe and qualified drivers top the list of legitimate concerns. Add that to a marketplace that is constantly applying negative pressure to rates and earnings, and you have a recipe for disaster in an industry that is

already struggling. I hope that your listeners understand this and appreciate all that these drivers do every day without need or want of recognition. Yeah, I think a lot of Canadians understand what truckers do and have done. I think a lot of people wondered about that through the protest. And some people definitely were supportive of the truckers who were protesting. Not the majority, but not an insignificant minority. Michael Tettelbaum.

Let's see where Michael's from. He's from Toronto. As I understand it, an inquiry automatically follows the invocation of the Emergencies Act. It is desperately needed. The lack of faster action by various jurisdictions need to be examined. Well, you're right. That is what happens. You know, why the act was brought in, what difference it made, those kind of discussions have to be had, and they will be had, and that's a requirement of the Act itself. I think there's an MPs Committee of all parties,

and I think there's more of an independent commission as well. So I think there are at least two different studies that have to take place. Frank Burke from Little Italy in Toronto. I would love it if you could discuss the role social media has played in the current situation in Canada right now. Facebook and Twitter are prominently seated at the table of every volatile situation in the world, spreading misinformation, hate and anger. But when we, people in general and proper media outlets, discuss who is responsible and root causes, they seem to get a pass and slink out of the room and move to the next insurrection or mass shooting.

I don't have a solution to offer other than one I've heard discussed where government issued ID would be required behind your profile so that you're accountable for what you say and spread. But I'm sure you could find an expert or two to discuss this with. Yeah, maybe we'll do that. I wouldn't have any problem with that. I think you should be accountable for what you say. And I think some of the social media companies that have always made the argument, oh, you know, we're not accountable for what's said on our platform. You can see they're changing on that slowly, slightly.

But when they start banning people from their platforms, you know that the criticisms are having some impact. Not enough yet. I agree with Frank on that. Maybe we'll have a... We've had a number of shows on social media, but maybe we'll have another one. Derek Rolofson in Vancouver.

Someone who follows Canadian politics quite closely. I find it sometimes difficult to have much faith in the ability of our parliamentarians to engage in actual productive intellectually vigorous discussion and debate. Certainly if one were to go on the basis of what is reported in most media coverage, it's not promising. And when one watches QP, for example, question period, the debate these past few days, read the Emergencies Act, it's difficult to find much real debate, not to mention election campaigns. It seems more often to be the lobbying back and forth of partisan ideological talking points and attacks or grandstanding speeches. At a junction in our history with an issue as significant as the Emergencies Act, one would hope, perhaps naively, that our elected representatives would be able to

somewhat rise above the partisan rhetoric and have a serious and true debate. After the events of the past month, perhaps I'm just feeling particularly acutely cynical, but nonetheless, I would love to hear your thoughts. Derek, I agree. I think most Canadians agree. I don't imagine the ratings for question period are that high anymore because of that fact. I mean, certain days,

it's great to have a good partisan back and forth. But every day? Paul Thompson from Bath, Ontario. Guys like you and I are old. Thank you, Paul. That was Paul's letter. Actually, it's much longer than that. Guys like you and I are old.

I'm fearful that much of what is going on in society today is partially attributable to the decline of the local newspaper, which fed the ecosystem of local radio and TV in a significant way. As we have seen over the past couple of years, and especially in the last three weeks, news delivery by algorithm with no meaningful curation is at best depressing and at worst scary. Maybe the death of the newspaper and media concentration have been covered. However, I would urge you to use your podcast to assemble a panel of guests to revisit it again and again. It's too important not to keep banging this drum. Take care, Paul Thompson, Bath, Ontario. It's a good point, pal. And, you know, one of your first points there about the decline of the local newspaper,

which fed the ecosystem of local radio and TV, is so true. You know, that's how I started. You know, I started in Manitoba in the 1960s. And the first thing you do when you got in the newsroom was you'd pick up the local newspaper. When I was in Winnipeg, it would be the old Tribune, long gone now, or the Free Press. And you'd circle the stories that you felt we should follow they generated a lot of the stories i mean my old simon editor jake o'donnell used to sit there with the scissors and that little you know that kind of knife thing that that cuts stuff out of papers and he he'd do a clipping and then the next thing he knew he was standing standing at your desk and he dropped it on there and said, Mansbridge, go get the story.

That's how things started. That doesn't exist anymore. I've had community leaders say to me, you know, at first we thought this would be great, not having a local reporter at City Hall or a council or a school board meeting being just pests. But you know what? It's meant that there's a lack of community engagement now on these issues,

and there should be engagement on them because there's no coverage. Jan Sutherland writes, freedom convoy, really? The great Nina Simone was once asked, what does freedom mean to you? Her reply was, freedom is the absence of fear. The insurgents in Ottawa created fear, and they destroyed real freedom, to live without fear. Hmm.

Okay. How are we doing on time? Yikes. Suzanne Ewer. From Vancouver. And I think she's going to be the last letter for today. I've been alarmed at the number of Canadians who do not understand our laws, our charter and freedoms, and our procedures.

As with the creation and funding of the CBC, Canadian content is important and will be much more fleeting, maybe as our media is so global now, maybe delightfully less American. Would you ever do a show on the Charter with experts? What about Justice Beverly McLaughlin? I bet you have interviewed her in the past. Well, actually, you know, I have interviewed her in the past, and I sit on a board with her right now, one of the boards that I'm on. And I may ask her whether she'd be interested in doing that. Okay, I'm going to take a chance here and read one more. It's a little longer, but let's get at it. Denise Gallon-Villefour in St. Boniface. I wish the media

would cover more stories on Canadians across the country, including the real truckers who feel as I do. The majority of Canadians have stepped up by following the science, respecting our health protections, and doing the right thing for our families and our fellow Canadians. The majority of Canadians are grateful for our democratic society and our diverse land of the free. Out of respect for our ancestors, starting by our Indigenous people,

the ones that paved our existence here, I will follow that example and never forget. My great-uncle paved the way for my family, bringing his parents and his younger sister, my grandmother, from La Belle Provence in southern France, so that Provence, to a small French community in Manitoba called Saint-Boniface. This was in early 1900s. He spoke at least five languages and went back to France to fight for his patrie in the First World War. He was a messenger because he spoke so many languages, and the messenger's lifespan was very short.

He was killed on the Somme, and his remains were never found. I heard this story from my grandmother many times and she would say that her mother, my great-grandmother, died a year after her only son had died from a broken heart. Every time I walk or jog past the Poilus monument in front of the Saint Boniface Cathedral, I thank him for my own life in this peaceful country. Just before the pandemic, my husband and I traveled to France and experienced the trip of a lifetime. We visited so many of the World War memorials and sites, including the expansive Somme Battlegrounds. After visiting Vimy, Juneau, and arriving on Omaha Beach, a man with a group of young tourists from South Korea

asked if I could take their picture. Afterwards, he asked me where we were from. When I said Canada, he put his hand on his heart and whispered, Thank you. This man was from Holland. My husband still tears up when we tell this story. Once this is all over and we can travel safely again, Holland would be a great place to visit.

And I can echo that. It is a great place to visit. And that happens all over the Netherlands. You say you're from Canada, man, the city, the town, the community, the country is yours. Thank you, Denise, for reminding us of that, especially at this time. All right, that's going to wrap it up. I've gone a little longer than normal, but I hope you

found it all worthwhile. Tomorrow, good talk. Chantelle Hebert and Bruce Anderson are with us. And lots to talk about again this week. And talk about it, we will. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening.

We'll talk to you again in 24 hours.