The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Campaign Day 16: Canoes, Quebec and Polls

Episode Date: September 26, 2019

Day 16 of Canada's 2019 Federal Election. | Thank for subscribing and for submitting a rating and review! * TWITTER @petermansbridge | INSTAGRAM @thepetermansbridge ** https://www.thepetermansbridge.com/ *** Producer: Manscorp Media Services

And hello there, it's Peter Mansbridge. This is the bridge for this Thursday night of week three of the election campaign. And finally back in our little studio here in downtown Toronto. Studio in my condo. No planes tonight. But that was fun. I enjoyed doing that and thanks for those of you who wrote in to say they enjoyed listening to something a little different and a little different it was. So here we are at the end of September and it was a gorgeous day here in most of central Canada. The kind of day where you think, man, late September, I'd love to be out canoeing. Well, you know who was canoeing today. Justin Trudeau was out there linking that Trudeau name once again to a canoe

and, of course, using it to make commitments on everything from climate to camping. I looked at that image, and it's an image, right? Let's face it. A lot of what campaigning is all about is the image you portray. That's why they all go to so much trouble to have a backdrop of either people or beautiful sights or busy little spots. So that was about an image.

I figured, okay, Trudeau in a canoe. Now think about that for a minute. If you place all of the, but sitting in a canoe, kind of looks like he belongs in that image. So I think the other part of it is, fine, we'll give him the canoe. That one's done. A couple of things to talk about in terms of kind of developments, one in particular that you're probably not hearing too much about, but it's something to watch for and to be careful watching for because it can make a big difference. As we've learned in the last few elections,

things happen in Quebec usually late in the game in a federal election campaign. Last time around, the Liberals made their big push in the second half of that campaign. I can remember sitting in election planning meetings at the CBC the week before the campaign. I'd heard a lot about how the Liberals were doing, but most of our people were still thinking, oh, the NDP are going to hold on to their seats. And I said, you know, it was one of the few times I was right about something. I said, no, we've got to watch this carefully because I think the Liberals are going to build their majority with success, among other places, in Quebec.

And sure enough, they did. But that all came on late. And in 2011, same thing. Jack Layton, the orange wave. I was traveling with Layton in those last couple of weeks of the campaign, and it was clear something was happening happening and it was really happening in Quebec and I got to witness some of that uh in uh in our special coverage it was doing a little documentary on on Leighton but all those seats piled into the NDP column kind of in the last half of that campaign it was Chantelle Hébert who was the first to notice what was going on in Quebec

and brought it up on one of our issue panels during that campaign. She was right. She almost always is right about her sense of the way things are going. So what about this time? What's going on this time in Quebec? Is anything happening in Quebec? Well, if you look at the nightly tracking polls, and there are a number of them out there, one of the things that seems to

be happening in Quebec, the Liberals have the lead, and it's a significant one, but the team that's crept up and has passed both the NDP and the Conservatives is the Bloc Québécois. Remember them? They were supposed to have disappeared, but they haven't. At least they haven't in this campaign. At least they haven't yet. If anything, they have reappeared and they've crept into a second place position and they're moving. They're tightening that gap with the Liberals.

So it's still a significant gap with the Liberals in Quebec, but they have shown indications they're on the march, and we'll have to watch what that means. For the Liberals to win and regain their majority, they're going to need to keep their seats in Quebec. In fact, increase their seats in Quebec. And that was the plan, to take seats away from the NDP. But the bloc may be disturbing that plan. So let's keep an eye on that over these next couple of weeks, right up until election night on October 21st. Now here's the other thing to mention. You may recall two nights ago I talked about what I thought was kind of a sloppiness, laziness

on the part of one news organization and the way it described a poll by saying, advertising the polling numbers that they had, were putting out, the headline was, if the vote was held tomorrow, and then showing the results of the poll, which is not an accurate reflection at all of anything. Polling numbers are, hope to be an accurate reflection of what would have happened if the vote had happened on the day the poll was taken. In that case, part of that poll was taken five days before it was published. So that's sloppy. It's not good.

It's not good for pollsters. It's not good for the media. And it's clearly not good for the public. So there's an interesting one today, another news organization, different one, has taken results from one particular area, and it's the belt around Toronto. It's kind of the 905 area code, which is a significant number of seats and can make or break a party in Ontario. So it's always one we watch closely. Now keep in mind, most national polls

have a margin of error of about three percentage points. So you always hear, you know, this is 19 times out of 20, the margin of error here is three percentage points. Well, every time you condense the picture, that picture is a national poll, that three percentage point margin of error. When you go down to a province, the margin of error gets larger because the sample size is smaller. And when you go to a particular area

or region of that province, it gets even smaller in terms of the sample size, and therefore the margin of error gets even larger. Now you have to read the fine print. This news organization, in fact, does have the margin of error listed there. If you've got really good eyesight or strong glasses and you look down closely, you'll see the margin of error is 5.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. That's 6%. Six percentage points, 19 times out of 20. So let's just say the numbers are, you know, 40-40 between the two leading parties. Six percentage points means, well, you do the math,

the spread that could be compared to the tie it seems to be. So you have to look closely at it. Everybody's responsible here. The media organization will defend itself saying, hey, it's on there, you just have to look. It's not in their story about their numbers, but it is on the graph, so fine. But it's then incumbent on you as the consumer to actually read it all, not get phased completely by the numbers,

because that's a wide margin of error when you're dealing with six percentage points, and it could be a walkover for one party over the other as opposed to the tie that it seems like. So that's my little cautionary note today on polls. And it helps me tell you that we've got a great show coming up on Monday on the bridge, something special. I've talked often about polls. I'm not, I don't like polls, even though I keep talking about them.

But I try to use caution when talking about them. But there are other people who love polls, including the people who do them. So on Monday night, we're going to have a special bridge about polls. And I want to try and get all the best possible questions. I got a lot of them. You may have some as well.

And you can send them to me at themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. So that's Monday night. I'll put more online on Twitter, giving you a heads up on the program. But I think it'll be special, and I think you'll want to hear it. I know I'm really looking forward to doing it. So mailbag time. We've got lots of good stuff here, and we'll get to it right after this. All right, mailbag time.

Once again, lots of letters came in last night, aside from the ones talking about the plane podcast. Enjoyed hearing those. So let me get right to these, because there are, as usual, some good, thoughtful letters. This first one is from Louise Gilmer. I have a question for those of us who live in safe ridings. Safe in quotations.

Louise lives in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, which has been held by the Conservatives for many years. Our current MP, I have no doubt she's going to win again. I'm very left-leaning. I'm a millennial and I almost always vote NDP. In previous years when I've lived in other ridings, I've volunteered for NDP campaigns, but this time I'm thinking, what's the point? There's no chance our candidate will win. My question, I guess, is how important is it to help my local candidate? How do I keep engaged when I know my vote certainly won't make a difference? You're not alone.

Louisa, there are people in different parts of the country who feel that way. And when I look through the history of your riding in Renfrew, Nipissing, Pembroke, it's existed as a riding since 1976, the redistribution of that year. So it's had elections since 79, 14 elections since 79. And it's basically been split 7-7. First 7 went to the Liberals. Then the Canadian Alliance, the forerunner of the Conservative Party, And it's basically been split 7-7. First 7 went to the Liberals. Then the Canadian Alliance, the forerunner of the Conservative Party, won in 2000. And the Conservatives have won the 6 since then. So in effect, 7-7 for the two parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives.

So this is the tiebreaker between those two parties. But what about you? You vote left. You always vote NDP, you say. What's the point, you say? The point is that's what you believe. You believe in what the NDP are saying and selling, I assume in this campaign as you did in past campaigns.

And you have a candidate running in that riding who's committed to running for you and representing you, your voice in the campaign and your voice in Parliament if that person was lucky enough to win. Now, it's an uphill climb. There's no doubt about it. Last time around, I think the NDP candidate got less than 10% of the vote in that riding. So it's going to have to be quite a jump for something to happen there. But, you know, we don't have

a two-party system. We have, at the moment, a four-party system and a couple of other parties trying to be the fifth party, one in particular, the People's Party of Canada trying to. But the NDP and the Greens, the Conservatives and the Liberals are the four parties. And there are dedicated people who believe in the party system who are running for election. And they're hoping for your support. The fact is, just imagine how you'd feel if by for some reason

your candidate ended up losing by one vote, and you didn't vote. You'd feel pretty bad. But you are a realist. You think the chances are very slim for the NDP in that riding. And history would suggest you're right. but I'm a big believer in voting, you know, not just with your heart, but with your head. And when you believe in something, I think you should vote.

At the end of the day, those statistics will tell the tale, but you will always feel like you've supported the cause that you believed in. Thanks, Louise. Maureen Pettigrew. This one actually is a letter from a couple weeks ago. I found it in my junk mail today. I don't know how that happens. I don't know how something ends up in the junk mail

and other stuff doesn't when all of this stuff is coming from people I've never corresponded with before. But it's an interesting letter, especially to read today. Maureen writes, the U.S. seems to be influencing Canadian voters and Canadians appear to have definite opinions on U.S. politics. Any ideas on how Canadian media can steer the campaign to our specific issues? Well, you picked a good day to ask this question, because a lot of eyes were focused on the U.S. Capitol today as the hearings began in questioning the acting DNI,

the National Intelligence Director for the United States, over this whole issue dealing with President Trump and Ukraine. As they begin, the Democrats, what will be an impeachment inquiry. It's quite a time in Washington, as if any day in the last two and a half years hasn't been quite a time. But there's a lot of focus on Washington, including from the Canadian media today. And it can be a little distressing when you see we're in the midst of an election campaign, an important one in this country. All the parties say this is the most important one ever. They always say that. But it's an important campaign with big issues at stake.

And when you flip on the various Canadian cable news outfits and they're all covering or talking about the U.S. story, it's a little distressing. But on a day like this, I'm not sure how you can avoid it. It's funny, I saw today a tweet from somebody who I respect, a prof at the University of Ottawa, Roland Paris, who's a frequent participant in things in Ottawa, was a former foreign policy advisor to a prime minister. His tweet is

as we watch our two closest allies politically self-destruct the profound dullness of Canada's election is downright reassuring. May it ever be so. Thank you, Roland. We do appear dull at times, but not always. We have some exciting days as well. Madeline Martin. I love this one.

My father and I are currently driving across Canada. He flew to Vancouver to help me move to Toronto. Boy, you don't hear many people going from Vancouver to Toronto. Two most expensive cities in the country to live in, but boy, once you've been in Vancouver, it's awfully hard to live. It's such a gorgeous city with fantastic views. Anyway, we are more than halfway through and are staying in Thunder Bay tonight. This was last night. She may already be home. First of all, thank you for your podcast. We have really been enjoying listening to it. As we've been driving, it's interesting to note all the campaign signs

along the way. We were wondering if you know of any publication that produces a scorecard of some sort that evaluates all the campaign promises made by each party and if they are achievable or not. That's the key part. Are they achievable? I think all news organizations will have some form of scorecard before the end of the campaign when all the promises are out there, which will detail what each party is standing for on all the different issues. They may talk to experts who will say, you know what, there's no way they can do that

for that amount of money. Or there's no way they can afford their whole program because it's going to cost billions and billions of dollars more than is already in the federal budget. That'll help you make up your mind as well. Safe driving, Maddie and your dad. Great to hear from you. And here's the last one for this night.

Marilyn Sewell from Paris, Ontario. Thanks for doing the podcast. I really enjoy the questions from listeners. Well, now you're one of them, Marilyn. I belong to a group called Women Inspiring Women, a new and modern branch of the Women's Institute in our part of Ontario. We hosted and I moderated a very successful all candidates meeting for the spring Ontario election, and we're doing it again for this election. We've partnered with the local

Federation of Agriculture, so it should be a well-attended event. Listening to your daily podcast gives me some perspectives on how to stay neutral and things that are on people's minds. I'll let you know how it goes. Drop by. Well, if I'm by Paris on the night you do that debate, I certainly will. Actually, no question there, but I wanted to read this because Maryland's

one of those who understands what democracy's all about. As John Turner, the former Prime Minister, always says, if you believe in democracy, you have to understand that democracy means you have to participate. That's part of the way we do these things. Participation. Marilyn's participating. She's part of the group organizing debates by all candidates.

And you know what? Anybody can do that. You just have to put the invitation out there. Better if you're with a group. But often these candidates are looking for platforms. And if a couple of them agree to go, it's hard for others to say no. Trudeau said no, and it crashed the monk debate on foreign policy. But he said yes to three other ones, so those will be interesting to watch.

But on a local level, this is a great idea, and I congratulate you, Marilyn, for being part of the group that organized an all-candidates debate in your riding. Perhaps you will inspire others to do the same. All right. I'm going to wrap it up for this night, for this Thursday night, and I hope you've enjoyed the podcast.

You can write your questions. Remember, special one coming up Monday night on polling. Here's your address, your email address to write to me. TheMansbridgePodcast at gmail.com TheMansbridgePodcast at gmail.com So thanks for listening to The Bridge. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Goodbye for now. Thank you.