The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Campaign Day 30: Tonight's Final Encounter

Episode Date: October 10, 2019

Day 30 of Canada's 2019 Federal Election. | Thank for subscribing and for submitting a rating and review! * TWITTER @petermansbridge | INSTAGRAM @thepetermansbridge ** https://www.thepetermansbridge.com/ *** Producer: Manscorp Media Services

And hello there, I'm Peter Mansbridge. This is day 30, day 30 of the campaign. The big 3-0. Boy, the days just fly by when you're having fun, don't they? Okay, a number of things to point out right away on tonight's bridge. And that is, first of all, I'm doing this early on the day on this Thursday because I have a major event in London, Ontario tonight that I will be attending and giving the keynote speech at.

And I'm really looking forward to it. And a big crowd expected because it's a fundraiser, probably more than 1,000 people, and it's great to be a part of it. Now, because of that, obviously I can't do the podcast tonight. I will miss the French language debate, which is a key moment in the campaign. Tonight, this is the official French language debate. There was one last week,

but this is a big one, and it's the last real event where all the leaders are together and able to challenge each other. So it's important. However, I will miss it. I'll watch it, obviously, on the replay, and I'll certainly read the analysis of those who I trust in terms of their analytical skills. But that'll be later, and we'll obviously talk about some of it tomorrow. However, what I do want to do as a result of that

is give you some things to be thinking about. what I do want to do as a result of that is give you some things to be thinking about. So we're going to put this podcast, we're going to try and put this podcast out early today on this Thursday. So you can be thinking about some of these things before the debate tonight, whether you watch it or whether you read about it after the fact. Let's quickly go down through the leaders. Last week in the French language debate, Justin Trudeau had a pretty easy time of it. He wasn't really the target. Andrew Scheer was more of a target than he was. So he just sort of, you know, had a good time. This could be different today. He very well may be the target from a number of different angles.

So he's got to be prepared for that. It is his last big moment. When you're in the incumbent, you are expected to be challenged in debate. And so it won't come as a surprise to him. But still, how he deals with it will be important. For Andrew Scheer, this is a telling moment because he's not done well, didn't do well in the debate last week in Quebec, and he has to do well in Quebec if he has any chance of winning. That's the general theory on the part of those who've sort of done the numbers across country. He's clearly got to do well in Ontario, but that won't be enough to push him over the top. He's got to do well in Quebec. And at the moment, he's not.

He's running third behind the bloc and the Liberals in all the polls I've seen. So he's got to move up. And he has to make an important decision tonight because a couple of nights ago in the English language debate, he went after Trudeau hard and personal. He called him a fraud and a phony, talked about lies. Those did not seem to work on a broad scale.

Clearly work with the base. Base loves that kind of talk. So if you're just out to solidify the base, that's what you give them. But at this point in the campaign, you want to be doing more than solidifying the base unless you think the base is having doubts. You've got to solidify them.

But you've got to expand. So tonight, will he expand, go beyond those personal attacks, and will he drop the personal attacks altogether? They didn't seem to bring new voters on board the other night. And in Quebec, you're dealing with this other issue. Justin Trudeau may not be the favorite son, but he is a son of Quebec. Andrew Scheer is not.

So do you really want the guy from Saskatchewan coming out and dumping on the guy from Quebec in Quebec? That can be a challenge. Jagmeet Singh, he's had another really solid week. He's peaked a little bit in the nightly tracking polls that I've seen, but not a lot. And he's still down in Quebec compared with where they were four years ago and certainly where they were eight years ago.

He's got to do something tonight if he's going to get those seats back in line. For you, Francois Blanchet, listen. Tonight's another opportunity. Bring it on, says the block leader. All this coverage he's had in the last few weeks has been great. So he's ready for anything. For the Green Party leader, it's a stretch. They haven't won a seat in Quebec.

Elizabeth May has spent a lot of time campaigning in Quebec, but so far there's no indication of any results on that front. And for Maxime Bernier, well, it's another night like the other night where he gets stage. He gets stage time. He's there on the platform. It's an opportunity for him. But if he does well, the only person that seems to be hurting is Andrew Scheer.

So that's kind of where we stand. And in the background to all of this, keep this in mind. In the last two elections at least, big movement in Quebec, final two weeks. We saw it in 2011 when the push for Jack Layton happened in those last couple of weeks. The orange wave. That's when it happened. Last time around, 2015, the big push in Quebec happened in the last couple of weeks

for Justin Trudeau. It made a big difference. And it ensured at the end of the night that they'd get their majority government. So is something happening here? There's no doubt there's been movement towards the bloc. Some people call it a surge. I haven't seen indication of a surge.

A surge would be like Leighton, like Trudeau. We haven't seen that yet. It may happen. We haven't seen a surge. We have seen a move. And the bloc, once considered dead, is not dead anymore. They're very active. So those are some things to think about tonight as you get ready for tonight's debate.

If you're listening to this after the debate, well, think about those things because you can kind of judge what impact they may have had given those stakes. So give it some thought. And thanks for your patience on understanding why I won't be around post-debate tonight. All right, we do have letters. We do have a mailbag.

And there's some good ones in here. So we'll get to them right after this. All right. So we've got some good letters here that came in during the night. I'll read a couple of them, and then we'll bail out of here so I can get in my truck, head out of Stratford, hit the road to London. Love driving through the country at this time of year. It's gorgeous out there. It's beautiful.

It's a beautiful day today, too. Colors are changing, sun's shining, temperatures. Perfect. Temperatures. Perfect. All right. Marilyn Sewell. Paris, Ontario. You may recall she wrote a couple of weeks ago talking about this whole idea of all candidates meetings,

which I'm big on, as you are probably already bored of hearing from this podcast. But Marilyn's written a great letter. Here it is. I wrote to you earlier about our all candidates meeting near Paris, Ontario, and promised I'd let you know how it went. We had well over 200 people with a real diversity of ages and backgrounds. Our questions included actions on climate change, access to affordable internet in rural Ontario, big issue in rural Ontario, and an issue that has an impact out there. Believe me. Personal views on abortion, senior needs, the deficit, immigration, and support for our very important agri-food industry.

Candidates were respectful, and the audience seemed to appreciate the opportunity to be involved. We're tired, but proud of our efforts. We had over 20 volunteers giving freely of their time. We received a lot of positive feedback for our efforts. Now, isn't that a great letter? I love it. And I love the fact that everybody involved took it seriously, that the candidates clearly respected the audience and respected each other in dealing with the issues

that were being raised. I think that's great. Those kind of things, those kind of meetings, you know, at the end of the day, they're so much more important than what we witness on TV and the screaming match we saw the other night. It'll be interesting to see what happens in Quebec. Do they change the format?

One thing I will tell you, they changed for the good. Well, they didn't change it. They just never, they decided they weren't going to screw the West. They were going on at 8 o'clock, and they would run until 10. Now, it's only an hour later than the one in English Canada, but that hour makes a big difference. If you're in Western Canada, you want to watch this. It makes a huge difference in Manitoba and Saskatchewan

and a little bit of a difference in Alberta and B.C. But it makes a difference, and good for them. Boy, nobody's going to talk to me at the CBC anymore after this. Okay. Okay. Let me flip to the next one here. Louise Kedves my question is will you do more podcasts once the election is over

I'm sure there are many topics you could speak on I am starting to hear from people that they'd like that my intention was not to my intention was simply to do this, you know, out of my home or wherever I happen to be. And as you know, if you've been constant from the beginning, I've done this podcast from all over. I've done it from Western Canada.

I've done it from Quebec. I've done it from, I think I did one from Fredericton. I've done it from an Air Canada flight at 40,000 feet. I do it from Toronto quite often and here in Stratford. So it's been fun. I've loved it. But, you know, I mean, it has had an impact on my day, you know, semi-retired that I am.

But I'm going to think about it, and I will wait to hear from more of you. A daily podcast is almost unlikely, but there are, as Louise says, lots of things to talk about. You know, I mean, if there was anything happening in Washington of interest, I'd probably want to talk about that, but it's such a boring town. Nothing ever happens in Washington. Anyway, Louise, I thank you for your interest in me doing that. We'll see. Okay, Matt

Pedler writes a letter. He was talking to a buddy of his, texting back and forth, and it's all around this issue. And I can't read all his letters because it's a long letter. But it all around this issue. And I can't read all his letter because it's a long letter. But it's around this issue of me and others. He's not attacking me, he's just kind of like asking, are we sort of beyond this now? And the issue about what we are or are not beyond is this whole issue of, you know, conservatives being center right or right, liberals always being described as sort of in the center, and the NDP and the Green Party left of center. And he wonders whether that's

giving an implicit bias when we discuss it. And it's an interesting thought, and it is one that, you know, we do and have given some consideration to but you know historically it's been kind of the case and the parties don't argue it you know um Preston Manning used to argue it I can remember having breakfast with Preston Manning when he was leader of the reform party and we had a good discussion on this front. But, I mean, generally, historically, the Conservatives are proud of being right of centre. Sometimes they nudge close into the centre, depending on the times, depending on the issues. And then sometimes they nudge a little further away from center than normal.

The liberals have always tried to describe themselves, and most political scientists describe themselves, as the party of the center that tries to rob whatever is good around the center. So if times are kind of left of centre, they go over the left, if it means staying in power. And if times are ones that call for more right policies, like deficit crunching, remember the early 90s,

Paul Martin as finance minister, they were definitely right of centre as a Liberal Party. Still keeping their traditional kind of Liberal values, but they were right of centre on the economy. The NDP and the Greens, for the most part, stay left of centre. Last time round, don't forget what Tom Mulcair did, He moved closer to the centre on economic issues, made promises about the deficit. Now they wouldn't increase it or run one, or try not to.

And there was a backlash, both internally and externally, to him on that. And the party went from opposition status from Jack Layton's days back into its more traditional third place spot. So Matt, you know, it's a good question and it's a good observation and I've given you a very general answer. And it may be something that's worthy of more of a discussion, perhaps with a couple of political scientists, and I might do that. Probably not before the election, but let's keep it in mind

because I think it's an interesting one. And we may be able to use the results of this campaign to guide us in that discussion. So thank you for that one. Last one for today. Sarah McKeever. Let me see here. Did we already do this one?

Yes, we did actually do this, Sarah. Sarah lives just down the road in Cambridge, Ontario. She's actually wanting to know which cohort of voters do you think will make the biggest difference for the election? And I was signaling young voters, definitely young voters. Will they, A, turn out, and if they do turn out, whose arguments are they buying? So, Sarah, you get two mentions on the same question.

Good for you. Okay, that's it for letters for today. If you have them, if you have thoughts, comments, let me know. What do you think about, you know, I told you at the beginning of this, this was a podcast just for the campaign, but do you think there'd be room for something more general later from me babbling away as I am from my house. It's not really set up to have guests, although we have done it. We had a great one last week with David Hurley and Shachi Curl on polling.

But think about it. Let me know what your feelings are. But more specific, as we hit the, we're into crunch time as I said last night. We're into the final run here. We're into the last 10 days. And it's going to be interesting to watch it unfold. Anyway, write to me, themansbridgepodcast

at gmail.com. themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. Don't be shy. I'm Peter Mansbridge, about to hit the road in my truck for London, Ontario, and looking forward to a great evening in a great city. I'm Peter Mansbridge.

This has been The Bridge. Thank you for listening.