The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Can Trump Change The World In A Week?

Episode Date: January 13, 2025

A week from today is Inauguration Day for Trump and all eyes are on the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas.  ...

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. It's Monday. Dr. Janice Stein is here. The question, can Donald Trump change the world in a week like Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Hamas? Can those stories change dramatically in the seven days before Donald Trump assumes power? That's coming right up. And hello there. Welcome to Monday. Welcome to the beginning of another new week.
Starting point is 00:00:50 And welcome, of course, to Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School at the University of Toronto. We missed Janice last week as we were in the turmoil surrounding the resignation of Justin Trudeau. But this week we get things back to normal because, well, I don't know how you define normal anymore. This is going to be quite the week as well. Leading up to seven days leading up to Donald Trump and the official inauguration of his new administration. So a lot of questions being asked now about the threats Trump has issued, that these conflicts, the two conflicts, the one in Ukraine and the one in Gaza, have to end now. And we'll see what happens if they do and if they don't. But the possibility exists that just the simple fact that Trump is about to assume power
Starting point is 00:01:34 could change the world as we know it today. We'll talk to Dr. Stein about that in a moment. But what we'd like to do on Monday morning is give you the questions for, or the question for, Thursday's edition of Your Turn. Last week was a very successful Your Turn, not surprisingly around that issue of the Trudeau resignation. The question for this week is going to relate to Donald Trump. And I want to be specific how it relates to Donald Trump and his threat, his musings about the 51st state. So here's the question.
Starting point is 00:02:16 Do you think Donald Trump's discussion about Canada as a 51st state is serious? And if so, why? There's your question. And we're looking, once again, for short, to-the-point answers. Is the threat serious? And why do you think it's serious? Okay? I want that in a paragraph, a normal paragraph,
Starting point is 00:02:45 not a really long paragraph. Some of you like to try to do on these things. So there's your question. Write to themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. Include your name and the location you're writing from. Those are all conditions. Those are all conditions. Those are all prerequisites.
Starting point is 00:03:08 So try and follow the conditions that we place on this. And we'll have another great show like we did last week. Easily, easily the most listened to Your Turn of the run of Your Turns over the last couple of years. So looking forward to that, along with the Random Ranter on Thursday's program. But today's Monday, and today we've got a fascinating interview with Dr. Stein about whether or not Donald Trump can change the world. So let's get right at it.
Starting point is 00:03:46 Here we go with Dr. Janice Stein. All right, Janice, I'm going to give you a heads up. First of all, we're going to deal with what we always deal with, you know, Russia, Ukraine, and Israel, Hamas. But we're also going to deal with the 51st state stuff. But we'll save that for later. We'll start with Russia, Ukraine, because some interesting stuff, and I guess it's this world that's going to change in
Starting point is 00:04:12 a week's time when Trump comes into power, because no matter where you look, the situation seems to have something to do with Trump, what he might do, what he said he will do, et cetera, et cetera. So Russia, Ukraine, Trump says he's willing to sit down with Putin. Putin says he's willing to sit down with Trump with no conditions. What do we make of that? What do we make of this? Trump is controlling the agenda totally on both these big stories that you and I often talk about, Peter. Putin is gaming the system.
Starting point is 00:04:50 Zelensky's gaming the system. They've all pivoted. And it's really extraordinary that in a transition like that, if we look at past U.S. transitions, the new team stands way back and says over and over, there's only one president at a time. Not these folks. They are out there in the field. They are talking to Russia. They are talking to Zelensky. And both of these people, both Putin and Zelensky, positioning themselves for next Monday and redesigning their strategies. Frankly, Putin's saying I'm willing to talk without conditions.
Starting point is 00:05:32 I wouldn't take that one to the bank. I don't think that he's laid down condition after condition. He's not changing his mind, frankly, at all. But the messages that are coming from Trump team and vintage Donald Trump don't get in my way. I said I want this deal. So Putin is really positioning himself to say, I'm not the spoiler. And Zelensky did the same thing. He came out with the most extraordinary statement this past week in which he said, I believe that President Trump can actually make peace. He's the only one who can make peace. How Jake Sullivan and Joe Biden feel about that comment after three years of being all in. But leave that aside. He's doing exactly the same thing that Vladimir Putin is doing.
Starting point is 00:06:32 All that, you know, I don't disagree with any of what you're saying. The only thing that I would add to this is that both Putin and Zelensky, not just Zelensky, both Putin and Zelensky need this to end. I mean, there's a new piece in the Financial Times over the weekend looking at the Russian state of their economy and their finances, and it's brutal. Yeah. And, you know, a continuing war doesn't help Putin on any level. So the timing for all this seems to work out,
Starting point is 00:07:07 especially with, you know, sure, Trump is throwing his weight around and this may be the best time for him to do that. I don't think we've ever seen anything like this in the period leading up to an inauguration. But he's certainly doing it, but it may be the best time to do it. You know, there's no question. We've talked about this, Peter. The Russian economy is finally starting to feel pain.
Starting point is 00:07:32 Growth is way down. Unemployment is up. The interest rates are up. Again, I don't think that the economy will crash. You know, this is not an apocalyptic scenario, but I think the word brutal is exactly right. And certainly Putin has to worry, as all authoritarians do, that when you start to inflict economic pain on a population,
Starting point is 00:08:01 that's a red flashing light, because that's how dictators lose their jobs frankly when you start worrying that I can't buy eggs I can't buy bread, cooking oil these are the kinds of things that actually lead to the toppling of dictators so I think Putin needs to deal now and Zelensky certainly needs a deal.
Starting point is 00:08:25 The casualty rates are off the charts, frankly, in both these countries. So Trump is coming to office at a really good time. This is the moment to push for a deal. That having been said, I'm going to go way out on a limb here, Peter. I think it's going to be tougher to get the deal between Putin and Zelensky than it is in the Middle East. Now, you know, obviously, we're going to get to the Middle East in a moment. But why do you say that? They have, it's so difficult to find a compromise here, given the, for Ukraine, the claims are so totalizing. There's not a world really for Ukraine where it gives up 18% or 17% of its territory and can make sense of that as an outcome.
Starting point is 00:09:30 It raises for them, is this just a pause? Jake Sullivan said that this morning. We have to be very careful that this is not just a pause. They need that pause desperately, but they are going to live with the fact that Putin could go back at this in a year or 18 months when the economy is better for him. There's no natural dividing line here. You know, you draw a ceasefire. Sometimes you get very lucky. There's a river.
Starting point is 00:10:01 There's mountains. There's some natural geographic division around which you can build a ceasefire. That's not really the case on the ground right now. So I think if what both of these presidents are going to do is shift, try to shift the responsibility of the other one, make the claim over and over to Trump. You know, I'm reasonable, I'm ready, but he's not ready, and that this is going to be protracted, frankly. It's so difficult.
Starting point is 00:10:40 What's the most important thing on the table? Is it land? I mean, they both have a little bit of each other's land. I mean, the Ukrainians much less than the Russians, and we're talking about the Kursk region. But is it land, or is it the NATO issue? Russia doesn't
Starting point is 00:10:57 want Ukraine in NATO. Ukraine wants to be in NATO. The NATO issue is a very, very large issue. So when we're in here people were in a trade-off and and that that's the issue for for zelensky if i have to give up land i want a really meaningful security guarantee if you don't make me give up land i won't push the nato issue but if you if i have to cede a big chunk of of the Donbass to Putin, then I want a meaningful security guarantee. Now, Trump has already said
Starting point is 00:11:31 I do not believe that Ukraine should be in NATO. He's already taken that one off the table. So then it really does become about geography. And how do you in fact thread that needle in the middle? And here's where the problem gets really hard. Where the Russian forces are
Starting point is 00:11:53 right now, and they have been steadily advancing all the while, steadily advancing, they are at the edge of that strategic belt of cities, little cities, really, in the Donbass. When those cities fall, there are planes ahead.
Starting point is 00:12:12 And so it's open territory, without a meaningful security guarantee for Ukraine. Really, really difficult. Really, really difficult. Is Europe at the table at all on this? You know, perhaps not in, you know, literally, but, you know, in some fashion, are they involved in this at all now? Well, certainly, you know, the new Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, has put this on the agenda. But they're informally at the table rather than formally at the table. So what are the issues for NATO? It is supplying Ukraine with military equipment and really stepping up because the United States will likely step back under Trump. And I think that's, by the
Starting point is 00:13:19 way, going to be a big part of Zelensky's negotiation with Trump. If we do this deal, we need commitments from you that we are going to continue to get military equipment. Because how do you trade here? Ukraine has to get something out of this. It won't get NATO. It won't get its territory back. So Ukraine has to get something. And Trump understands that.
Starting point is 00:13:42 So what is that something? Well, it's military equipment and financial assistance from NATO allies, and hopefully some from the United States as well. So I think Donald Trump is going to have to pull back a little bit here and persuade his allies in Congress. When you say it's going to be harder to get a deal there than it will be in the Middle East, which we'll get to in a second, what does that mean in real terms? Does that mean it's just going to keep on going on like it's been? You know, nothing can keep going on forever.
Starting point is 00:14:19 There's no war that goes on forever. And what stops wars in the end is what you just mentioned, Peter, terrible economic costs and terrible, terrible casualty levels. That's true now for both of them, frankly. But when you reach that point, you can have months and months and months of protracted negotiations. Even after you make the decision in principle that you're going to end the war, think of Vietnam. Two years and arguments about the shape of the table. They knew, the United States knew that they had to end that war. Two years of dragging your feet and proactive negotiations in the hope of getting just maybe one more advantage, a commitment to military supplies, a commitment to financial aid, and trying to toughen up those commitments so that they're really meaningful.
Starting point is 00:15:23 I think we're in for months of negotiation here rather than the day after I'm elected in 24 hours. Is it possible? I mean, you mentioned the Vietnam one. It wasn't there. At least it wasn't for a good part of it. But once you start talks, that in the interim you have a ceasefire during talks? You know, it's possible, but it's not common. And it's really interesting.
Starting point is 00:15:53 What usually happens is you fight and negotiate at the same time because the fighting is really about the shape of the deal. You're fighting to influence the negotiated settlement. If you agree to a ceasefire, it is very hard to start again because the party that starts again bears the onus of starting again. So it is really hard to get a ceasefire that precedes the negotiation. We're going to see this when we come to the Middle East. They fight and negotiate at the same time, and the ceasefire is part of the deal. Yeah, it just seems to me that the fighting in the Ukraine-Russia situation has been inches as opposed to miles.
Starting point is 00:16:48 And how much can that have an impact on the talks when there's really not? There's a lot of killing going on. There's a lot of damage going on. But things aren't changing significantly on the ground. I mean, I can see what you said, that Russia has made some inroads in the Donbass. But we're talking small, right? Probably 1,500 square miles in the last five months, Peter. So not nothing, right? Not nothing.
Starting point is 00:17:23 What should put the pressure on Zelensky, and it is putting the pressure on Zelensky, but just to channel him for a minute, he's living in a world where if he agrees to a ceasefire now, and the economy recovers, the Ukrainian economy, it's a very inventive group of people in Ukraine. They're absolutely astounding, frankly. His fundamental problems don't go away because he has a shortage of manpower.
Starting point is 00:17:57 And there's an interesting tangent here, that Ukraine already had suffered from a shortage of men able to father children. Let me put it that way. So which really matters because you have to replicate Ukrainians. And if you lose those and that shrinks, then the next generation of Ukrainians is smaller, smaller, and smaller. And they're disadvantaged with respect to Russia grows. And Ukraine is already in a serious demographic trap in comparison to Russia. So he's in that world. So his goal is to make sure that when he finally gets the ceasefire, it is not an interlude that Putin breaks 18 months later, because he will be
Starting point is 00:18:46 in a far worse position if that's the story. And nobody can assure him of that, frankly. It'll be interesting. He's going to be so tough bargaining for every little thing that he can get. It'll be interesting to see what happens to Zelensky, you know, one way or the other on this. I mean, war has made this guy. Yeah. It'll be interesting to see what happens to Zelensky, you know, one way or the other on this. I mean, war has made this guy. Yeah. Peace can unmake him.
Starting point is 00:19:11 So fast. So fast. History has certainly shown us that. You know, there is already the opposition candidate in waiting. It's General Zelensky, the former chief of defense staff. And there's no question that every Ukrainian I talk to says the moment there's a ceasefire, politics is back in Ukraine. And the opposition is ready, organized, waiting to go. All right. Let's shift to the Middle East.
Starting point is 00:19:39 Same situation. You know, Trump, what, in the last week or two two said that there better be a ceasefire between these two sides a real one or all hell's gonna break loose so they got a week yeah and there there seems to be all kinds of movement all of a sudden yeah yeah so i will see that movie before too though we've seen it so many times and i've been wrong before. I think this is the real deal now, because I think what's happened here is Trump told Netanyahu, you have to make a deal here. You have to move. And where, again, we're seeing something extraordinary.
Starting point is 00:20:48 The Trump team are working hand in hand with the Biden team. So we're hearing all this animosity when we look at U.S. domestic politics. But boy, in the field, they are so coordinated. They are working so closely together. three days ago sent his special emissary to Doha first and then to Tel Aviv to meet with Netanyahu, Steve Witkoff, and Netanyahu changed his too. And so all the leaks over the last 48 hours, and this is the wind and the breeze, all the leaks are about how Israel could withdraw its forces despite the installation that's built on that east-west corridor that cuts Gaza in two, then it's a ring corridor, and they could withdraw the installations, and it was built that way, and that's not really a problem. Now, that's where this has been stuck. It's been stuck on the ceasefire. Is this a
Starting point is 00:21:28 permanent ceasefire or is it a temporary ceasefire? That's been the biggest issue. And I think Netanyahu has finally moved on this. He's acknowledging he will accept a ceasefire. And the Egyptians have helped here, too. They've told Netanyahu, you have to withdraw from that famous Philadelphia quarter, that strip of land that borders the Egyptian border. But we can wait till the third phase for you to do that. So the pieces are really optimistic, Peter, that the pieces are finally coming into place where there'll be ceasefire and gas. What's the other half of it, though? Is it hostages, all hostages are still alive, freed?
Starting point is 00:22:15 Well, it phased. We're in this phased deal, right? And that's what you see. The fighting for the last five months has been about the deal. That's what it's been about on both sides. So the phase deal in the first phase, women, children and elderly men, plus anybody who is wounded or sick. That's who's coming back. There is still disagreement about the list,
Starting point is 00:22:47 but Hamas, again, so again, I'm looking, you know, the fingers in the breeze and I'm testing the winds. Hamas finally produced a list for live hostages in the first phase, which they said they couldn't do because they didn't know where they were. So they have managed to find 35 that are alive that will come back in the first phase.
Starting point is 00:23:14 There will be some withdrawal in the first phase, very limited. So Hamas is taking a gamble here. The second phase, that's the exchange, total withdrawal, bodies of the dead hostages. I don't think they'll be able to find, frankly, in many, many cases. There were fewer alive than Israeli officials are suggesting. But those are the conversations that are going on now. And, you know, very different when Joe Biden says no to Netanyahu than when when trump says no to nathaniel there's nowhere else for him to go frankly and there's a big issue on the table where nathaniel sees a much bigger issue frankly and that's iran
Starting point is 00:23:58 so iran's still in the picture in spite of the chaos there. Huge, huge. And for Netanyahu, that's long been the issue. And I don't think he wants to rupture the relationship he has with Trump over Gaza in comparison to the bigger issue for him, which is Iran. How about the other two things that have been talked about throughout this whole process, and that is who governs Gaza after this is over, this war is over, or at least in ceasefire, and is there any move towards two-state? No.
Starting point is 00:24:44 No. I mean, that's an unequivocal no um on the two-state solution on the two states yeah yeah uh you know this i think this war has set that back if it was ever possible and there's good arguments to be made that it has not been possible for 20 years now frankly as a result of, you know, continual establishment of new settlements in the West Bank. But this war has taken that off the table for a decade, at least until people's memories fade, both on the Israeli side and on the Palestinian side in Gaza. Because I think there is a generation that has been so radicalized in Gaza by this war that it will be extremely difficult.
Starting point is 00:25:38 The president of the Palestinian Authority is coming out now with the most strongly worded, it's too polite, criticism of Mahmoud Abbas of Hamas. Hamas has brought this catastrophe on Palestine. We have to avoid under any circumstances Ham, as part of the future of Gaza or anywhere in the West Bank. I mean, this is the most scathing criticism by one part of Palestine against Hamas. And of course, it's Gazans and West Bankers who are caught in the middle now of what is an all-out rift.
Starting point is 00:26:23 There are discussions now finally happening between Egypt, which borders Gaza. You know, Egypt rules Gaza. We forget this, from 48 to 67. That's not that long ago in Middle Eastern history, between Gaza, Saudi Arabia, to the UAE, about what kind of force could go in there while the larger issues are being worked out. It's going to be a tough job here.
Starting point is 00:26:57 There's no Gaza, right? Let's just say this. There's no Gaza. It's a rubble. There's huge, huge huge huge challenges why is trump able to deal with these two issues well when biden couldn't yeah it's really really interesting that's a great question um first of all i think he's lucky um he it's timing I think he's lucky. It's timing.
Starting point is 00:27:32 You know, he's coming to this after Russia and Ukraine have each exhausted themselves, as we've said. And the single most important thing in getting a deal and a ceasefire always is does each side feel there's not much more to gain on the battlefield? I mean, it's clearly true for Ukraine, a little less true for Putin. But this is not the Putin who invaded Ukraine in 2022 and the domestic costs. Look, he's got to look at what happened. Putin's got to be looking at what happened to his friend Bashir al-Assad, who's now living in luxury in Moscow, and saying, I'm not going to push this all the way up to the point where I antagonize my own population this way, because that's frankly what Assad did.
Starting point is 00:28:16 And that's why that was a house of cards. So the timing is going even better. And that's why I'm far more optimistic about a quick deal on Gaza than I am on Ukraine. That war has fundamentally been over, but it's not. There was stories in the last two weeks about the number of new young recruits that Hamas has been able to find inside Gaza. Allegedly, there were something like 25,000 really well-trained Hamas fighters at the start of all this. Israel's claiming that it has killed 20,000 of them, there are now 17,000 or so ill-trained recruits that Hamas has been able to stand up, even in the midst of all this.
Starting point is 00:29:14 So this is a totally pointless war at this point, and Israeli casualties are mounting. Okay. We're going to leave those two issues because obviously in the next week they're both going to be resolved and we won't have anything to talk about. Well, I'm hopeful that we're going to get one deal of the century.
Starting point is 00:29:33 Let's hope so. Let's talk about things Canadian. We'll do that right after this. and welcome back you're listening to the monday episode of the bridge it's dr janice stein with us again from the university of toronto the monk school uh you're listening on sirius xm channel one six seven or on your favorite podcast platform so So the New York Times has an opinion piece over the weekend written by one of its lead opinion editorialists, which basically says, come on, Canada, get in the game. It's time to join the U.S.
Starting point is 00:30:21 Now, this pretty respected writer, even though his family abandoned Canada when he was like 10 years old, so he's kind of biased on that part of it. But nevertheless, when I look at that article, I go, okay, we thought this was a joke a month ago. But increasingly, it does not look like a joke. And increasingly, it seems the Trump group, the MAGA group, are using this and Greenland and Panama, et cetera, in real terms. You know, they may be trying to cover up other difficulties they've been having, maybe in the nomination process, maybe on the immigration front. But nevertheless, they keep stoking this like it's a real deal.
Starting point is 00:31:07 Yeah. And Canada has at times kind of laughed it off, now starting to look like they may be starting to take it a little more seriously. What is your – put this in context for us. What's going on here? It is really stunning, Peter. I did not take it seriously when I first heard about it, but I take it seriously now. I really do. You don't come back to an issue like this over and over and over again, which is what Trump has done.
Starting point is 00:31:40 So in some way, this is part of the way he sees the world right now. And he's fixated on it because it's not a joke. So what does this remind me of, frankly? It reminds me of Vladimir Putin. It is the historic Russian homeland, which includes Ukraine and Belarus. Well, as the world reconfigures and the United States pulls back from all these foreign wars and pulls back from free trade, what really matters to Donald Trump is the historic U.S. sphere of influence. And so it's no coincidence. It's the Panama Canal.
Starting point is 00:32:23 It's Canada, which if it weren't for a group of United Empire loyalists, could well have been part of North America. And it's Greenland. And each of these serve, in his view, strategic purposes. So I take it very seriously. Now, that doesn't mean any of it will happen, but I think it's a big mistake not to take it seriously. I mean, Donald Trump has already come out, I think it was 72 hours ago, and said that the Canadian concessions on the border, which Trudeau and Dominique Leblanc made
Starting point is 00:33:01 when they went down to Mar-a-Lago, that's not enough, he said. He's not satisfied. And that next Monday, he will sign executive orders in which there will be tariffs. Is any of this really even about the tariffs anymore? I think it's partly about the tariffs. I think it's partly about the tariffs.
Starting point is 00:33:25 And this is a real challenge with Donald Trump, trying to figure him out. Because he's not really a great negotiator, by the way. Contrary to all the hype, if you look at his own business dealings, there's not a history of great success. But, you know, I did have the opportunity to ask our ambassador in Washington who knows him, has seen him. And to a person in our embassy, people say to me, it is about establishing a reputation for toughness with him because he does smell weakness. So that's why, by the way, we are having all these conversations and the leaks that are coming out of Ottawa about the tariffs that we will impose in return for any tariffs that he imposes next Monday. So when you speak like that, when you say, well, you have to establish your reputation
Starting point is 00:34:30 for toughness, that's then about bargaining and about negotiation. I'm not convinced that that is the whole story here, because he could threaten us with tariffs and that would be enough to get every civil servant in Ottawa working through the holidays all night long to drop a list of tariffs. He doesn't have to talk about us becoming the 51st state over and over again and that's what he's doing. I think it's more. Yeah, I think it's more too. I mean, what do I know? But I get the sense that at the beginning, it was leveraging on the tariff issue. But the more he looked at an atlas, the more he went,
Starting point is 00:35:20 hell, this starts to make sense to me. I really should be doing this. And whether it's that Putin streak in his veins or what, I don't know. But it just seems the things he's been saying lately and the way he's played Gretzky and he's played O'Leary to you know, to his advantage. And I just go, there's, he's serious. I agree with you. He's serious.
Starting point is 00:35:51 And like, you know, let's bring in the third of the thugs, frankly, Xi Jinping. What's Xi Jinping doing? He's saying the same thing. There are historic Chinese, you know, there's Taiwan, that's ours. There's no question here. We're going to reunify and we're going to do it peacefully. We're going to do it by force. But beyond that, there's the South China Sea.
Starting point is 00:36:13 There are historic zones of influence for greater China. If you listen to Donald Trump, he sounds like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. That's why all of a sudden he's focused on us when he had no interest in Canada until really three, four weeks ago. None. Knew nothing about us. Brian Mulroney taught him everything he knew about Canada. Yeah, I mean, listen, you talk about deal-making.
Starting point is 00:36:42 I mean, it's not like he hasn't been here. He's been in Toronto. He's been in Vancouver, to name two places, on deals he's tried to make. And the people he's been doing the deals with were not impressed. The Canadians were not impressed. That's what I'm saying.
Starting point is 00:36:56 This is no great negotiator, Peter, contrary to the hype. So what's your sense of where Canadians, whenever the Canadians have been asked this question about do you want to join the States, it's your sense of where Canadians, whenever the Canadians are being asked this question about do you want to join the States, it's been a blowout. It's like 80% plus. Up to 13 now.
Starting point is 00:37:14 Yeah. Does that change? So, look, I see a real upside here to all of this for two reasons. Okay. One, it can't happen. It's not going to happen. So I think that's really, and that's what Canadian politicians are saying,
Starting point is 00:37:36 but it's really important for people outside the political unit to say, this is not going to happen. The U.S. Army is not marching north here, Peter. And that's the only way this can really happen. And so it's not going to happen. The second upside is there's this outpouring now of bipartisan defense of Canada. You know, Doug Ford has been in the lead here because of the vacuum that we've got in Ottawa. And he says, well, you know, I'd like Alaska and let's throw in Minnesota, too, for good fun.
Starting point is 00:38:13 But there is this is now it's not a bad thing for this country, given where we are right now, to have an issue around which we can all agree. And, you know, it's just historically played that role for us, and it's coming at a good time in our political history. So I think that's one big upside. The second is, and this is an issue I think also for Canadians, we need to get our act together. We can't skate anymore. We've been skating. This is me.
Starting point is 00:38:50 We've been skating for a long time, and we've been underperformers. So we need to understand we have to earn a seat at the table. We have to be serious about defense. We have to be serious about our economy, because to be serious about our economy because if we continue to skate, we're vulnerable when an idea like this pops up. What am I most worried about here? I'm most worried that, to put it this way, Trash Talk in Canada, which is what he's doing over and over, can undermine confidence in our economy.
Starting point is 00:39:29 There's consequences for the Canadian dollar. We've seen that already since all of this started. That's not fun. There's consequences for the spread of interest rates between Canada and the United States. I can assure you, Peter, despite the rally around the flag, there are some private sector leaders who are saying to themselves, do I need this aggravation or should I just get behind that tariff wall? By either moving a business or opening a business, there are potentially serious consequences for Canada and for the Canadian economy, really, if this continues too long and confidence is shaken.
Starting point is 00:40:15 And what you mean by that is business leaders saying, move to the state. Yes. Move our businesses to the state. Yes. Move our business or open a business there. Because these are classic catching strategies that you use in the face of uncertainty. That's what he's doing. He's raising the level of uncertainty.
Starting point is 00:40:37 There's always economic consequences for that. That's why I think the longer this has gone on, the more... Damaging. More damaging it is and the more likely on, the more damaging, more damaging it is. And the more likely is to keep going no matter what it is we do in trying to, you know, trying to deal with the issues that he's raised. I'll give him the one thing. Um, when we talk about, you know, Canada, Greenland, Panama, he's also known this thing about the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. Yeah. As I mentioned on my, he can get an easy win there. That's an easy win for him.
Starting point is 00:41:12 He can win that one by just doing it, just naming it. Yeah. As I mentioned in my newsletter the other day, the Brits decided they were sick of it being called the German Sea next door to them, so they renamed it the North Sea. Absolutely true. That's a great one. And that's, you know, everybody sort of, well, not everybody,
Starting point is 00:41:30 because you can still find maps that say German Sea or Sea of Germania or what have you. But they just said it. All he has to do is say it and do it and instruct everybody to change the names on the maps. Yep. But that's the only easy one there. That's the only. That's right. to do is say it and do it and instruct everybody to change the names on the on the maps yep but that's the only easy one there that's the only that's right it's the only easy one and up and again to reassure all our listeners of those three issues panama canada and greenland we're the
Starting point is 00:41:58 toughest right i hope so we are the. We are the toughest. We are the toughest in that group. When they start marching north, we'll go down and burn the White House again. Yeah. You know, there's a very funny piece, because you have to, you know, approach this with some humor. Because, you know, we have very elaborate war plans in the archives, which I'm sure you've seen, too, about our plans to invade in the 1920s. And there was a very funny call that pulled them all out, dusted them off and said, OK.
Starting point is 00:42:38 And maybe that would get our defense spending up finally. But this is not gonna happen okay we'll trust you on that one i'm i'm allowing the other big limb i'm going you know i'm going way around this limb at the beginning of the year this is not gonna happen this is not gonna happen okay we'll save this tape and play it back to you as they're crawling over the border. Okay, good conversation. And obviously, there's lots more to come. Oh, wow, we're a year ahead of us.
Starting point is 00:43:14 Thanks, Janice. We'll talk to you again soon. Have a good week. Dr. Janice Stein, Munk School, University of Toronto. That great conversation. We missed Janice last week. It was a crazy week, as we all know. But she certainly got us off on an interesting foot. For this week, this month, this year, with today's conversation.
Starting point is 00:43:39 So many thanks, as always, to Janice Stein. That's going to wrap it up for this day. Lots ahead during the week. Tomorrow we're going to look at the forest fire situations with an interesting angle. Forest fires, wildfires is the proper term to use. We've witnessed this horrific disaster unfolding in California over the last few days.
Starting point is 00:44:08 And we're going to talk to somebody tomorrow who's spent a good part of the last year looking at the wildfire situation, not just in California, but in Canada as well. So we'll talk about that tomorrow right here on the bridge. Wednesday will be our encore, regular encore edition. Thursday, your turn. You heard me outline the question of the week. If you missed it, go back to the top of this podcast. And Wednesday, 6 p.m. Eastern time is the deadline for the answers on that.
Starting point is 00:44:44 So we'll get those into the Mansbridge podcast at g p.m. Eastern Time is the deadline for the answers on that. So we'll get those into the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. And Friday, of course, your turn with Chantelle Hebert and Bruce Anderson. Looking forward to that as well. So thanks so much for listening today, and we'll talk to you again this time tomorrow.

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