The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Can Trump Change The World In A Week? - Encore
Episode Date: January 15, 2025An encore of Inauguration Day for Trump and all eyes are on the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas. ...
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And hello there, Peter Vansbridge here. It's time for your Wednesday Encore edition of The Bridge,
and we're going to repeat this week's Monday episode with Dr. Janice Stein,
because things are moving so rapidly in these days before the Donald Trump inauguration.
Moving rapidly both in the Middle East and on the Ukraine front.
Can things change dramatically in just the next few days?
Let's listen to Dr. Janice Stein, once again, an encore from this Monday.
And hello there. Welcome to Monday.
Welcome to the beginning of another new week,
and welcome of course to Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School at the University of Toronto.
We missed Janice last week as we were in the turmoil surrounding the resignation of Justin Trudeau.
But this week we get things back to normal because, well, I don't know how you define normal anymore.
This is going to be quite the week as well, leading up to seven days leading up to Donald
Trump and the official inauguration of his new administration.
So a lot of questions being asked now about the threats Trump has issued, that these conflicts,
the two conflicts, the one in Ukraine and the one in Gaza,
have to end now.
And we'll see what happens if they do and if they don't.
But the possibility exists that just the simple fact
that Trump is about to assume power
could change the world as we know it today.
We'll talk to Dr. Stein about that in a moment.
But what we'd like to do on Monday morning is give you the questions for,
or the question for Thursday's edition of Your Turn.
Last week was a very successful Your Turn,
not surprisingly around that issue of the Trudeau resignation.
The question for this week is going to relate to Donald Trump.
And I want to be specific how it relates to Donald Trump and his threat,
his musings about the 51st state.
So here's the question.
Do you think Donald Trump's discussion about Canada as a 51st state
is serious? And if so, why? There's your question. And we're looking once again for,
you know, short to the point answers. Is the threat serious? And why do you think it's serious?
Okay?
I want that in a paragraph.
A normal paragraph.
Not a really long paragraph.
Some of you like to try to do on these things.
So there's your question.
Write to themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com.
themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com.
Include your name and the location you're writing from.
Those are all conditions.
Those are all prerequisites.
So try and follow the conditions that we place on this.
And we'll have another great show like we did last week. Easily, easily the most listened to Your Turn
off the run of Your Turns over the last couple of years.
So looking forward to that,
along with the Random Ranter on Thursday's program.
But today's Monday, and today we've got
a fascinating interview with Dr. Stein
about whether or not Donald Trump can change the world.
So let's get right at it.
Here we go with Dr. Janice Stein.
All right, Janice, I'm going to give you a heads up, first of all.
We're going to deal with what we always deal with,
you know, Russia, Ukraine, and Israel, Hamas.
But we're also going to deal with the 51st state stuff.
But we'll save that for later.
We'll start with Russia, Ukraine.
Because some interesting stuff, and I guess it's this world that's going to change in a week's time when Trump comes into power.
Because no matter where you look, the situation seems to have something to do with Trump, what he might do, what he said he will do, etc., etc.
So Russia-Ukraine, Trump says he's willing to sit down with Putin.
Putin says he's willing to sit down with Trump with no conditions.
What do we make of that?
What do we make of this? What do we make of this?
Trump is controlling the agenda totally on both these big stories that you and I often talk about, Peter.
Putin is gaming the system.
Zelensky is gaming the system.
They've all pivoted. And it's really extraordinary that in a transition like that, if we look at past U.S.
transitions, the new team stands way back and says over and over, there's only one president at a
time. Not these folks. They are out there in the field. They are talking to Russia, they are talking to Zelensky, and both of these people, both Putin and Zelensky,
positioning themselves for next Monday and redesigning their strategies.
Frankly, Putin's saying, I'm willing to talk without conditions.
I wouldn't take that one to the bank.
I don't think that he's laid down condition after
condition he's not changing his mind frankly at all but the messages that are coming from
trump team and vintage donald trump don't get in my way i said i want this deal. So Putin is really positioning himself to say, I'm not the spoiler.
And Zelensky did the same thing.
He came out with the most extraordinary statement this past week in which he said,
I believe that President Trump can actually make peace.
He's the only one who can make peace. He's the only one who can make peace. Well, I could just imagine how Jake Sullivan
and Joe Biden feel about that comment after three years of being all in. But leave that aside.
He's doing exactly the same thing that Vladimir Putin is doing.
All that, you know, I don't disagree with any of what you're saying. The only thing that I would
add to this is that both Putin and Zelensky,
not just Zelensky, both Putin and Zelensky need this to end.
I mean, there's a new piece in the Financial Times over the weekend
looking at the Russian state of their economy and their finances,
and it's brutal.
Yeah.
And a continuing war doesn't help Putin on any level.
So the timing for all this seems to work out,
especially with, you know, sure, Trump is throwing his weight around,
and this may be the best time for him to do that.
I don't think we've ever seen anything like this
in the period leading up to an inauguration. But he's certainly doing it, but it may be the best time to him to do that i don't think we've ever seen anything like this in the period leading up to an inauguration um but he's certainly doing it but it may be the best time to do it
you know there's no question we've talked about this peter the russian economy is
finally starting to feel pain growth is way down unemployment up. The interest rates are up. Again, I don't think that the economy
will crash. You know, this is not an apocalyptic scenario, but I think the word brutal is exactly
right. And certainly Putin has to worry, as all authoritarians do, that when you start to inflict economic pain on a population, that's a red flashing light because that's how dictators lose their jobs, frankly.
When you start worrying that I can't buy eggs, I can't buy bread, cooking oil.
These are the kinds of things that actually lead to the toppling of dictators.
So I think Putin needs a deal now.
And Zelensky certainly needs a deal.
The casualty rates are off the charts, frankly, in both these countries.
So Trump is coming to office at a really good time.
This is the moment to push for a deal.
That having been said, I'm going to go way out on a limb here, Peter.
I think it's going to be tougher to get the deal between Putin and Zelensky than it is in the Middle East.
Now, you know, obviously we're going to get to the Middle East in a moment.
But why do you say that? Because it's so difficult to find a compromise here, given for Ukraine where it gives up 18% or 17% of its territory and can make sense of that as an outcome.
It raises for them, is this just a pause?
Jake Sullivan said that this morning.
We have to be very careful that this is not just a pause.
They need that pause desperately, but they are going to live with the fact that Putin could go back at this in a year or 18 months when the economy is better for him.
There's no natural dividing line here.
You draw a ceasefire. Sometimes you get very lucky. There's
a river, there's mountains, there's some natural geographic division around which you can build a
ceasefire. That's not really the case on the ground right now. So I think if what both of these presidents are going to do is shift, try to
shift the responsibility of the other one, make the claim over and over to Trump. You know,
I'm reasonable, I'm ready, but he's not ready. And that this is going to be protracted, frankly.
It's so difficult.
What's the most important thing on the table?
Is it land?
I mean, they both have a little bit of each other's land. I mean, the Ukrainians much less than the Russians.
And we're talking about the Kursk region.
But is it land or is it the NATO issue?
Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO.
Ukraine wants to be in NATO.
The NATO issue is a very, very large.
So when we're in here, Peter, we're in a trade-off.
And that's the issue for Zelensky.
If I have to give up land,
I want a really meaningful security guarantee.
If you don't make me give up land,
I won't push the NATO issue. But
if I have to cede a big chunk of
the Donbass to Putin, then I want a meaningful security guarantee.
Now, Trump has already said, I do not believe
that Ukraine should be in NATO. He's already taken that one
off the table. So then it really does become about geography.
And how do you, in fact, you know, thread that needle in the middle?
And here's where the problem gets really hard.
Where the Russian forces are right now,
and they have been steadily advancing all the while, steadily advancing.
They are at the edge of that strategic belt of cities, little cities, really, in the Donbass.
When those cities fall, there are planes ahead.
And so it's open territory, frankly, to advance into central Ukraine.
So to draw that ceasefire line right there at the edge of that,
those critical hounds that are spread through the Donbass and south without a meaningful security guarantee for Ukraine,
really, really difficult.
Really, really difficult, really, really difficult.
Is Europe at the table at all on this?
You know, perhaps not in, you know, literally, but, you know, in some fashion, are they involved
in this at all now?
Well, certainly, you know, the new Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutka, has put this on the agenda.
But they're informally at the table rather than formally at the table.
So what are the issues for NATO?
It is supplying Ukraine with military equipment and really stepping up because the United States will likely step back under Trump.
And I think that's, by the way, going to be a big part of Zelensky's negotiation with Trump.
If we do this deal, we need commitments from you that we are going to continue to get military
equipment. Because how do you trade here? Ukraine has to get something out of this.
It won't get NATO. It won't get its territory back. So Ukraine has to get something.
And Trump understands that. So what is that something? Well, it's military equipment and
financial assistance from NATO allies, and hopefully some from the United States as well.
So I think Donald Trump is going to have to pull back a little bit here
and persuade his allies in Congress.
When you say it's going to be harder to get a deal there than it will be in the Middle East, which we'll get to in a second, what does that mean in real terms?
Does that mean it's just going to keep on going on like it's been?
You know, nothing can keep going on forever. There's no war that
goes on forever. And what stops wars in the end is what you just mentioned, Peter, terrible economic
costs and terrible, terrible casualty levels. That's true now for both of them, frankly.
But when you reach that point, you can have months and months and months of protracted negotiations.
Even after you make the decision in principle that you're going to end the war.
Think of Vietnam.
Two years.
And arguments about the shape of the table.
They knew, the United States knew that they had to end that war.
Two years of dragging your feet and proactive negotiations in the hope of getting just maybe one more advantage.
You know, a commitment to military supplies supplies a commitment to financial aid i try to toughen up those commitments so that they're really meaningful i think we're in for months of
negotiation here rather than the day after i'm elected in 24 hours is it possible uh i mean you
mentioned the vietnam i want to know it wasn't. At least it wasn't for a good part of it. But once you start talks, that in the interim you have a ceasefire during talks.
You know, it's possible, but it's not common.
And it's really interesting.
What usually happens is you fight and negotiate at the same time because the fighting is really about the shape of the deal.
You're fighting to influence the negotiated settlement.
If you agree to a ceasefire, it is very hard to start again because the party that starts again bears the onus of starting again.
So it is really hard to get a ceasefire that precedes the negotiation.
We're going to see this when we come to the Middle East.
They fight and negotiate at the same time, and the ceasefire is part of the deal.
Yeah, it just seems to me that the fighting in the Ukraine-Russia situation has been inches as opposed to miles.
And how much can that have an impact on the talks when there's really not?
There's a lot of killing going on.
There's a lot of killing going on. There's a lot of damage going on.
But things aren't changing significantly on the ground. I mean, I can see what you said, that Russia has made some inroads in the Donbass.
But we're talking small, right?
Probably 1,500 square miles in the last five months, Peter. So not nothing.
Right? Not nothing. What should put the pressure on Zelensky
and it is putting the pressure on Zelensky.
But just to channel him for a minute, he's living
in a world where if he agrees to a ceasefire now
and the economy recovers, the Ukrainian economy,
it's a very inventive group of people in Ukraine.
They're absolutely astounding, frankly.
His fundamental problems don't go away because he has a shortage of manpower.
And there's an interesting tangent here that Ukraine already had suffered from a shortage
of men able to father children.
Let me put it that way.
So which really matters because you have to replicate Ukrainians.
And if you lose those and that shrinks, then the next generation of Ukrainians
is smaller, smaller, and smaller. And they're disadvantaged with respect to Russia grows.
And Ukraine is already in a serious demographic trap in comparison to Russia. So he's in that
world. So his goal is to make sure that when he finally gets the ceasefire,
it is not an interlude that Putin breaks 18 months later,
because he will be in a far worse position if that's the story.
And nobody can assure him of that, frankly.
It'll be interesting.
He's going to be so tough bargaining for every little thing that he can get.
It'll be interesting to see what happens to Zelensky, you know, one way or the other on this.
I mean, war has made this guy.
Yeah.
Peace can unmake him.
So fast.
So fast.
History has certainly shown us that.
You know, there is already the opposition
candidate in waiting.
It's General Zolushny,
the former chief of defense
staff. And there's no
question that every Ukrainian I talk
to says the moment there's
a ceasefire, politics is back
in Ukraine. And the opposition
is ready, organized, waiting to
go. All right, let's shift to
the Middle East. Same situation. You know, Trump, organized, waiting to go. All right, let's shift to the Middle East.
Same situation.
You know, Trump, what, in the last week or two,
said that there better be a ceasefire between these two sides,
a real one, or all hell's going to break loose.
So they got a week.
Yeah.
And there seems to be all kinds of movement all of a sudden.
Yeah.
We've seen that movie before, too, though.
We've seen it so many times and i've been wrong um before um i think this is the real deal now because i think what's
happened here is trump told netanyahu you have to make a deal here you have to make a deal here. You have to move. And where, again, we're seeing something extraordinary.
The Trump team are working hand in hand with the Biden team.
So we're hearing all this animosity when we look at U.S. domestic politics.
But, boy, in the field, they are so coordinated.
They are working so closely together.
And what happened?
Trump, just three days ago, sent his special emissary to Doha first and then to Tel Aviv to meet with Netanyahu, Steve Witkoff.
And Netanyahu changed his too.
And so all the leaks over the last 48 hours, and this is the wind and the breeze, all the leaks are about how Israel could withdraw its forces despite the installation that it's built on that east-west corridor that cuts Gaza in two.
Then it's a ring corridor, and they could could withdraw the installations and it was built that way.
And that's not really a problem.
Now, that's where this has been stuck.
It's been stuck on the ceasefire.
Is this a permanent ceasefire or is it a temporary ceasefire?
That's been the biggest issue.
And I think Netanyahu has finally moved on this. He's acknowledging he will accept a ceasefire. And the Egyptians have helped here, too. They've told Netanyahu, you have to withdraw from that famous Philadelphia quarter, that strip of land that borders the Egyptian border, but we can wait till the third phase for you to do that.
So the pieces are, I'm really optimistic, Peter,
that the pieces are finally coming into place
where there'll be a ceasefire in Gaza.
What's the other half of it, though?
Is it hostages, all hostages who are still alive, freed?
Well, it phased.
We're in this phased deal, right? And that's what you see,
the fighting for the last five months has been about the deal. That's what it's been about on
both sides. So the phased deal in the first phase, women, children, and elderly men, plus anybody who is wounded or sick.
That's who's coming back. There is still disagreement about the list, but Hamas again,
so again, I'm looking, you know, the fingers in the breeze and I'm testing the winds. Hamas
finally produced a list for live hostages in the first phase, which they said they couldn't do because they didn't know where they were.
So they have managed to find 35 that are alive that will come back in the first phase.
There will be some withdrawal in the first phase, very limited.
So Hamas is taking a gamble here. The second phase, that's the exchange,
total withdrawal, bodies of the dead hostages. I don't think they'll be able to find, frankly,
in many, many cases. There were fewer alive than Israeli officials are suggesting.
But those are the conversations that are going on now.
And, you know, very different when Joe Biden says no to Netanyahu
than when Trump says no to Netanyahu.
There's nowhere else for him to go, frankly.
And there's a big issue on the table where Netanyahu sees a much bigger issue,
frankly, and that's Iran.
So Iran's still in the picture in spite of the chaos there.
Huge, huge.
And for Netanyahu, that's long been the issue,
and I don't think he wants to rupture the relationship he has with Trump
over Gaza in comparison to the bigger issue for him, which is Iran.
How about the other two things that have been talked about
throughout this whole process, and that is,
who governs Gaza after this is over, this war is over,
or at least in ceasefire?
And is there any move towards two-state?
No.
No.
I mean, that's an unequivocal no.
On the two-state solution?
On the two states.
Right.
Yeah.
You know, I think this war has set that back.
If it was ever possible.
And there's good arguments to be made that it has not been possible for 20 years now, frankly,
as a result of continual establishment of new settlements in the West Bank.
But this war has taken that off the table for a decade, at least until people's memories fade, both on the Israeli side and
on the Palestinian side in Gaza.
Because I think there is a generation that has been so radicalized in Gaza by this war
that it will be extremely difficult.
The president of the Palestinian Authority is coming out now with the most strongly worded, it's too polite, criticism of Mahmoud Abbas of Hamas.
Hamas has brought this catastrophe on Palestine.
We have to avoid under any circumstances Hamas as part of the future of Gaza
or anywhere in the West Bank. I mean, this is the most
scathing criticism by one part of Palestine
against Hamas. And of course, it's
Gazans and West Bankers
who are caught in the middle now of what is an all-out rift.
There are discussions now finally happening between Egypt,
which borders Gaza.
You know, Egypt rules Gaza.
We forget this, from 48 to 67.
That's not that long ago in Middle Eastern history
between Gaza, Saudi Arabia, to the UAE
about what kind of force could go in there
while the larger issues are being worked out.
It's going to be a tough job here.
There's no Gaza, right? Let's just say this. There's no Gaza. It's going to be a tough job here. There's no Gaza, right?
Let's just say this.
There's no Gaza.
It's rubble.
There's huge, huge, huge challenges.
Why is Trump able to deal with these two issues when Biden couldn't?
Yeah, it's really, really interesting.
That's a great question.
First of all, I think he's lucky.
It's timing.
You know, he's coming to this after Russia and Ukraine have each exhausted themselves, as we've said. single most important thing in getting a deal and a ceasefire always is does each side feel
there's not much more to gain on the battlefield? I mean, it's clearly true for Ukraine,
a little less true for Putin, but this is not the Putin who invaded Ukraine in 2022 and the
domestic cause. Look, he's got to look at what happened. Putin's got to be looking at what happened to his friend Bashir al-Assad,
who's now living in luxury in Moscow and saying,
I'm not going to push this all the way up to the point where I antagonize
my own population this way, because that's frankly what Assad did.
And that's why that was a house of cards.
So the timing has gotten even better.
And that's why I'm far more optimistic about a quick deal
on Gaza than I am on Ukraine.
That war has fundamentally been over, but it's not. So there were stories in the last two weeks about the number of new young recruits that Hamas has been able to find inside Gaza.
Allegedly, there were something like 25,000 really well-trained Hamas fighters at the start of all this.
Israel's claiming that it has killed 20,000 of them.
There are now 17,000 or so ill-trained recruits that Hamas has been able to stand up, even in the midst of all this.
So this is a totally pointless war at this point, and Israeli casualties are mounting.
Okay. We're going to leave those two issues
because obviously in the next week they're both going to be resolved and we won't have anything
to talk about. Well, I'm hopeful that we're going to get one deal of the century.
Let's hope so. Let's talk about things
Canadian. We'll do that right after this.
And welcome back. You're listening to the Monday episode of The Bridge.
It's Dr. Janice Stein with us again from the University of Toronto, the Munk School.
You're listening on Sirius XM, channel 167, or on your favorite podcast platform.
So the New York Times has an opinion piece over the weekend,
written by one of its lead opinion editorialists,
which basically says, come on, Canada, get in the game.
It's time to join the U.S.
Now, this pretty respected writer, even though his family abandoned Canada
when he was like 10 years old, so he's kind of biased on that part of it.
But nevertheless, when I look at that article, I go, okay,
we thought this was a joke a month ago.
But increasingly, it does not look like a joke.
And increasingly, it seems the Trump group, the MAGA group are using this and Greenland and Panama, et cetera, in real terms.
You know, they may be trying to cover up other difficulties they've been having,
maybe in the nomination process, maybe on the immigration front,
but nevertheless, they keep stoking this like it's a real deal.
And Canada has at times kind of laughed it off,
now starting to look like they may be starting to take it a little more seriously.
Put this in context for us.
What's going on here?
It is really stunning, Peter.
I did not take it seriously when I first heard about it,
but I take it seriously now.
I really do. You don't come back to an issue like this over and over and over again,
which is what Trump has done.
So in some way, this is part of the way he sees the world right now.
And he's fixated on it because it's not a joke.
So what does this remind me of, frankly?
It reminds me of Vladimir Putin.
It is the historic Russian homeland,
which includes Ukraine and Belarus.
Well, as the world reconfigures
and the United States pulls back
from all these foreign wars
and pulls back from free trade,
what really matters to Donald Trump
is the historic U.S. sphere of influence.
And so it's no coincidence.
It's the Panama Canal.
It's Canada, which if it weren't for a group of United Empire loyalists,
could well have been part of North America.
And it's Greenland.
And each of these serve, in his view, strategic purposes.
So I take it very seriously.
Now, that doesn't mean any of it will happen, but I think it's a big mistake not to take it seriously.
I mean, Donald Trump has already come out, I think it was 72 hours ago, and said that the Canadian concessions on the border, which Trudeau and Dominique Leblanc made when they went down to Mar-a-Lago,
that's not enough, he said.
He's not satisfied.
And that next Monday, he will sign executive orders in which there will be tariffs.
Is any of this really even about the tariffs anymore?
I think it's partly about the tariffs.
I think it's partly about the tariffs.
And this is a real challenge with Donald Trump, trying to figure him out.
Because he's not really a great negotiator, by the way.
Contrary to all the hype, if you look at his own business dealings,
there's not a history of great success.
But, you know, I did have the opportunity to ask our ambassador in Washington,
who knows him, has seen him.
And to a person in our embassy, people say to me,
it is about establishing a reputation for toughness with him
because he does smell weakness.
So, and that's why, by the way,
we are having all these conversations
and the leaks that are coming out of Ottawa
about the tariffs, we are having all these conversations and the leaks that are coming out of Ottawa about the tariffs that we will impose in return for any tariffs that he imposes next Monday.
So when you speak like that, when you say, well, you have to establish your reputation for toughness,
that's then about bargaining and about negotiation. I'm not convinced that that is the whole story here
because he could threaten us with tariffs
and that would be enough
to get every civil servant in Ottawa
working through the holidays all night long
to drop a list of tariffs.
He doesn't have to talk about us
becoming the 51st state over and over again
and that's what he's doing i think it's more yeah i think it's more too i mean what do i know but i
i get i get the sense that at the beginning it was a it was leveraging in on the tariff issue
but the more he looked at an atlas, the more he went,
hell, this starts to make sense to me.
I really should be doing this.
And whether it's that Putin streak in his veins or what, I don't know.
But it just seems the things he's been saying lately
and the way he's played gretzky and he's
played o'leary you know for to his advantage and i i just go there's there's he's serious
i agree with you he's here and like you know let's bring in the third of the thugs frankly
what's she doing he's saying the same thing.
There are historic Chinese, you know, there's Taiwan, that's ours.
There's no question here.
We're going to reunify and we're going to do it peacefully.
We're going to do it by force.
But beyond that, there's the South China Sea.
There are historic zones of influence for greater China.
If you listen to Donald Trump, he sounds like Xi Jinping
and Vladimir Putin. That's why all of a sudden he's focused
on us when he had no interest in Canada
until really three, four weeks ago. None. Knew nothing about
us. Brian Mulroney taught him everything he knew about Canada.
Yeah, I mean,
listen,
he's,
you know,
you talk about deal-making.
I mean,
it's not like he hasn't been here.
He's been in Toronto.
He's been in Vancouver to name two places on deals.
He's tried to make,
and the people he's been doing the deals with,
we're not impressed.
The Canadians,
we're not impressed.
That's what I'm saying.
This is no great negotiator, Peter, contrary to the hype.
So what's your sense of where Canadians,
whenever the Canadians have been asked this question about,
do you want to join the States?
It's been a blowout.
It's like 80% plus.
Up to 13 now.
Yeah.
Does that change?
So, look, I see a real upside here to all of this for two reasons.
OK, one, it can't happen.
It's not going to happen.
So I think that's really and that's what Canadian politicians are saying.
But it's really important for people outside the political unit to say this is not going to happen.
The U.S. Army is not marching north here, Peter.
And that's the only way this can really happen.
And so it's not going to happen.
The second upside is there is this outpouring now of bipartisan defense of Canada.
You know, Doug Ford has been in the lead here
because of the vacuum that we've got in Ottawa.
And he says, well, you know, I'd like Alaska
and let's throw in Minnesota too for good fun.
But there is, this is now,
it's not a bad thing for this country,
given where we are right now, to have an issue around which we can all agree.
And, you know, it's just historically played that role for us, and it's coming at a good time in our political history.
So I think that also for Canadians.
We need to get our act together.
We can't skate anymore.
We've been skating.
This is me.
We've been skating for a long time, and we've been underperformers.
So we need to understand we have to earn a seat at the table.
We have to be serious about defense.
We have to be serious about our economy because if we continue to skate,
we're vulnerable when an idea like this pops up.
What am I most worried about here?
I'm most worried that, to put it this way,
Trash Talk in Canada, which is what he's doing over and over,
can undermine confidence in our economy.
There's consequences for the Canadian dollar.
We've seen that already since all of this started.
That's not fun. There's consequences for the spread of interest rates
between Canada and the United States.
I can assure you, Peter, despite the rally around the flag,
there are some private sector leaders who are saying to themselves,
do I need this aggravation or should I just get behind that tariff wall?
By either moving a business or opening a business, there are potentially serious consequences
for Canada and for the Canadian economy, really, if this continues too long and confidence
is shaken.
And what you mean by that is, is business leaders saying move to the state.
Yes.
Move our businesses to the state.
Yes.
Move our business or open a business there.
And because these are,
these are classic catching strategies that you use in the face of
uncertainty.
That's what he's doing.
He's raising the level of uncertainty.
There's always economic consequences for that.
That's why I think the longer this has gone on, the more damaging it is
and the more likely it is to keep going no matter what it is we do
in trying to deal with the issues that he's raised.
I'll give him the one thing.
When we talk about,
you know,
Canada,
Greenland,
Panama,
he's also known this thing about the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
Yeah.
As I mentioned on a,
on my,
he can get an easy win there.
That's an easy win for him.
He can win that one by just doing it.
Just name it.
Yeah.
As I mentioned in my newsletter the other day,
they,
the Brits decided that they were sick of it being called the german sea next door to them so they renamed
it the north sea absolutely true that's a great one and that's you know everybody sort of well
not everybody because you can still find maps let's say german so your sea of germania or what
have you um but they they just said it.
All he has to do is say it and do it
and instruct everybody to change the names on the maps.
Yep.
But that's the only easy win there.
That's the only easy win.
And again, to reassure all our listeners,
of those three issues, Panama, Canada, and Greenland,
we're the toughest.
Right?
I hope so.
We are the toughest.
We are the toughest in that group.
Panama.
When they start marching north, we'll go down and burn the White House again.
Yeah.
You know, there's a very funny piece, because you have to, you know, there is a very funny piece because you have to, you know, approach this.
Because, you know, we have very elaborate war plans in the archives, which I'm sure you've seen, too, about our plans to invade in the 1920s.
And there was a very funny call that pulled them all out, dusted them off and said, OK.
And maybe that would get our defense spending up finally, right?
But this is not going to happen.
Okay.
We'll trust you on that one.
I'm allowing the other big limb.
I'm going way around this limb at the beginning of the year.
This is not going to happen.
This is not going to happen. This is not going to happen.
Okay, we'll save this tape and play it back to you
as they're crawling over the border.
Okay, good conversation.
And obviously, there's lots more to come.
Oh, wow, what a year ahead of us.
Yeah.
Thanks, Janice.
We'll talk to you again soon.
Have a good week.
Dr. Janice Stein, Munk School, University of Toronto.
That great conversation.
We missed Janice last week.
It was a crazy week, as we all know.
But she certainly got us off on an interesting foot for this week, this month, this year, with today's conversation.
So many thanks, as always, to Jana Stein.
That's going to wrap it up for this day.
And thanks for listening to this encore edition of The Bridge.
We'll be back with our latest edition tomorrow, Thursday.
It'll be your turn and the random Ranter. We'll see you then.