The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Can You See Inflation At The Gas Pump?

Episode Date: June 3, 2021

I worry about inflation, do you?  If you do where to look and why.  And a lot more that relates to oil from the pump, to arctic drilling, to airlines. All this and more on our Thursday potpourri.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. We asked the question, inflation, do you see it when you look at the gas pump? Are you still trying to find ways to get into the world of crypto? Well, look no further. Bitbuy is Canada's number one platform for buying and selling Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitbuy has launched a brand new app and website with a new look, lower fees, and new coins. Bitbuy is your one-stop shop to get involved and super easy to use for beginners. Visit bitbuy.ca or download the Bitbuy app. Enter referral code podcast20 to get $20 free when you make your first deposit. And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here, yes.

Occasionally over the last month or two months, I've raised this whole question about inflation. And most people, not all people, but most people say, ah, you don't need to worry about inflation. And most people, not all people, but most people say, ah, you don't need to worry about inflation. We're not going to be faced with inflation again. Well, it's been a while since we suffered inflation. You know, that index, you see it every year because it affects everything. It affects the prices you pay. It affects the wages you make, the whole bit. And it's very low. In's being like 1% or 2%. My fear over this last year has been that when things start to come back,

there's going to be a tremendous amount of money circulating within the economy. Governments have poured billions, hundreds of billions, trillions in some case, into the economy to get things going again. And it doesn't always happen as a result of pouring all that money into it, but occasionally it will happen, the prices start to go up. And when things start to go up, a lot of different things are affected. And as a result, you get inflation. And those of us who are old enough, you don't have to be that old, remember what the inflation days were like in the late 70s, early 1980s,

often because of oil. It started with oil. But when those numbers started to go up, everything gets impacted. On the good side, salaries get increased. People are happy about that. But with increased salaries, more money going into the economy, prices go up, and inflation rates started to soar. It wasn't unusual to see 8%, 9%, sometimes 10% inflation. And as a result, lots of other things went up. Interest rates, mortgages, they all went up. Well, believe me, you don't want to see that movie in your time. If you're young with a new mortgage,

banking your future on the wonderful house you've got and the fact that you've got two, three, five-year terms of mortgages with relatively low rates, you want to keep it that way. You don't want to suddenly see a spike in interest rates. So that's why I worry, and maybe I worry too much, about inflation. But I found it interesting in the last month or so, more and more economists are saying, got to keep an eye on that inflation issue.

Don't want that to get out of hand. So one of the ways you can see incoming inflation as a possibility, not as a certainty, but as a possibility, is watching the gas pump. Now, I don't know where you've been in the last little while in terms of gas prices. I know people aren't driving as much as they used to in gas-powered cars, and more and more people are driving electric. But I can tell you, a year ago, as a result of the pandemic, and oil prices were driven down, and therefore gas prices of the pump were way down, I can remember paying, you know, like 80 cents a liter for gas a year ago. Never thought I'd see that number again. But there it was because of low, low demand. Well, demand ain't low now. And as a result, when I gassed up yesterday to drive from Stratford into Toronto, where I am today because of some documentary work I'm doing,

I was paying like $1.27 or something a gallon. There's not a gallon, a liter. You know, that's just more than 50% more than I was paying a year ago. Now, before the pandemic hit, it was somewhere around a buck a liter. So this week, oil prices hit a multi-year high. This is the international price. U., US dollars, $70 a barrel. After OPEC and its allies forecast higher demand, boosted output, punctuating a global economic reawakening that has raised the prices of a broad range of commodities. With infection rates generally in check in much of Asia and China,

the world's biggest oil consumers, and vaccine drives in the US and Europe plowing ahead, OPEC and a group of non-OPEC producers led by Russia are betting markets are ready again for more oil. Reading from the Wall Street Journal. So, I think we've got to look at that as one way of monitoring what's happened. More oil use. It's not just people driving to the cottage. It's factories.

It's industry. The gears slowly working together, moving up. Airlines. I've got a little airline story. Surprise. A little later on in this Thursday potpourri and it too will show how you know things are picking up and boy you get the airline starting to crunch through oil you're gonna see an impact get those electric planes out there.

All right, here's an oil-related story that many of you will like. This comes from the New York Times. President Biden suspends drilling leases in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Okay, this was just the other day. The decision blocks oil and gas drilling in one of the largest tracts of untouched wilderness in the United States, home to migrating waterfowl, caribou, and polar bears. But it also lies over as much as 11 billion barrels of oil. And in the U.S., Democrats and Republicans have fought over whether to allow drilling

in that area for more than 40 years. Now, you remember the inauguration day? Seems like years ago now, right? That wasn't that long ago. It was the end of January. And one of the many things that happened that day in that speech by President Biden was a promise to sign an executive order, which he did moments after the speech, to halt new Arctic drilling. All this also serves as a high-profile way for the president to solidify his environmental credentials, says the New York Times, after coming under fire from activists angered by his recent quiet support for some fossil fuel projects.

So you've got oil going up in production at a time they're putting the kibosh to new areas of potential drilling for oil. Okay, unrelated story now. This one's, you know, we've seen all kinds of examples of this in the last couple of years of concern by employers over employees' use of social media. Well, here's something from Forbes magazine about the U.S. military.

Forbes says the Pentagon could soon monitor military personnel social media. They're going to be looking at what soldiers and airmen and airwomen are doing on social media channels. The presence of veterans and even active duty service members at the January 6th Capitol riots, the insurrection, it's more than a riot, it's an insurrection, raised concerns that extremism has been on the rise. This move underscores that the new administration is taking this threat seriously, this idea of monitoring social media. As part of the Biden administration's crackdown on domestic extremism,

the Pentagon is reportedly sent to launch a pilot program that would screen military personnel's social media for extremist material. According to internal Department of Defense documents reviewed by the Intercept, the screening program would continuously monitor military personnel for what was described as

concerning behaviors. That's interesting, and that will be something to watch are you a space nut i'm just going to have a sip of coffee here so for those who occasionally write saying we can hear you sipping well if you hear this you'll be right i rarely ever bring anything into the studio, but today I figured I needed a little hit. Now, mind you, I don't drink caffeinated coffee where you get a hit. I drink decaffeinated coffee and apparently you're not supposed to get hit at all from decaf. Well, I do. Maybe it's just the heat. Okay, I've had my sip.

I hope that wasn't a problem for anyone. Here's my space nut story. As you know, missions from NASA for years, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. You know, it's funny. It's NASA. It's not Nassau. It's NASA. But you'll find people, and I've said it occasionally, Nassau, like the island.

It's NASA. Over the years, missions from NASA have put a man on the moon and a rover on Mars, but a new Earth-focused mission by NASA will provide crucial information about climate change and extreme weather. In other words, they're going to be looking at us from up there. They're not going to be looking at out there from up there. It's called the Earth System Observatory.

We'll launch at least five satellites by the end of the decade that will enhance, or in some cases revolutionize, observations compared to current satellites. So NASA is focusing now on its ability to see the Earth, not just to explore space, as a part of a broader climate reorientation of the agency, which includes a new climate advisor position and an increase in climate-oriented missions. This is what one of the NASA spokespeople said.

Over the past three decades, much of what we've learned about the Earth's challenging climate is built on NASA's satellite observations and research. NASA's new Earth System Observatory will expand that work, providing the world with an unprecedented understanding of our Earth's climate system, aiming us with next-generation data critical to mitigating climate change and protecting our communities in the face of natural disasters.

That's from our daily planet. Now, I don't think we should assume that NASA is only, and other international space agencies have only ever pointed outwards. Because spy satellites are pointed outwards. Because spy satellites are pointed inwards. And if you believe the hype about them, they do a pretty good job

of pointing inwards. Moving on. You know QAnon. You know all the fuss know QAnon. You know all the fuss about QAnon. And a lot of people thought when we in the media started talking about QAnon in the last year or so, that is this fringe group, bunch of wackos, conspiracy theorists, but small in number. Well, apparently not. According to the New York Times, QAnon is now as popular in the United States

as some major religions. So says a poll. And the Times says this stunning new survey shows that the conspiracy-driven right-wing organization is more widespread and powerful than ever, and potentially here to stay as a prevalent faction of the modern Republican Party. Here are the poll details. A poll recently released by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Interfaith Youth Corps, which found that 15% of Americans say they think

that the levers of power, 15%, okay, 15% of Americans say they think that the levers of power are controlled by a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles, a core belief of QAnon supporters. The teams behind the poll determined that 14% of Americans fall into the category of QAnon believers, composed of those who agreed with the statements in all three questions. Asked, among Republicans only, that rises to roughly 1 in 4, or 12% of independents and 7% of Democrats were categorized as QAnon believers. This is scary stuff. The analysts went a little further. They created a category labeled QAnon Doubters to include respondents who had said they mostly disagreed

with the outlandish statements, but don't reject them outright. Another 55% of Republicans fell into this more ambivalent category, which means that just one in five Republicans fully rejected the premises of the QAnon conspiracy theory. For Democrats, 58% were flat-out QAnon rejectors. These are words I never thought I would write into a poll question, or have the need to write, but here we are. So said one of the research analysts for the Public Religion Research Institute. It is pretty shocking.

It really is. Okay. Got a couple of airline stories for you. Gee, what a surprise, Peter. You're going to do an airline story. You know, in the past couple of days, I booked my first flight in more than a year and a half. Not a year and a half, a year and three months.

I've got to give a presentation in Ottawa later this month. And if I'm fully double-dosed, I'm going to try it. I want to see what it's like. It's not just the flight. It's the whole idea of a bit of travel. I want to see what goes on on that day. I'll be flying up to Ottawa, give the presentation, flying back to Toronto.

But airlines, as we all know, which contribute a lot of different things to our society, they contribute thousands of jobs. On the other hand, they contribute some potential for pollution through oil use. But nevertheless, overall, they are a factor in our economy. And for the past year and three months or so, they've been a non-factor.

Thousands and thousands of jobs have been lost. Airplanes are sitting in desert parking lots. And the question here is, okay, if things are starting to pick up, and it's just a glimmer at the moment, a glimmer of hope that they are starting to start up. I mean, to book a flight to Ottawa, they used to be every hour on, at least every hour, on at least three airlines, Toronto, Ottawa, Air Canada, WestJet, and Porter. Well, now, there are far fewer flights.

I think Air Canada is like three a day. That gives you some sense of the drop in passenger traffic. And when I booked a flight I'm going to need for later this month, there were only a couple of people who had been booked on it so far. Now that will surely change the closer you get to the date. But here's one of the challenges airlines are facing and that's getting the aircraft ready to be back in a normal situation that could be as much as a year away but it's starting now it's already starting i think the number of air travelers in canada

just on air canada i think doubled in the last month but it's still way way down compared with what's expected so what did we do with all these planes that haven't been in the air for a year well they were sitting on tarmacs we discussed this a few months ago most of them are flown down to the southern u.s and desert areas in arizona and new mexico and basically parked in different airports that weren't being used we use this big parking garage this tulsa airport hundreds and hundreds of planes stacked up on well well, not stacked up, but parked along runways and taxiways at the airport. So you don't just sort of, okay, get that 787 over there, bring it over. No, here's the key, or whatever.

Bring it over. You actually have to do a lot. First of all, in the total time it's been in storage, you're constantly monitoring it. Checking the tires. In some cases, rotating tires. Even though it's just parked. Checking the engines to make sure they're capped

and, you know, birds and animals or what have you are not getting in there. You know, like when you buy, sometimes you buy camera equipment or audio equipment and you open the package up and there's those tiny little bags there inside the box, they're absorbing moisture, right? That's the idea behind those. Well, they have versions of that in cockpits of planes that are sitting around

to ensure that moisture doesn't become a problem. So they've got to move those bags out. They've got to check things. I mean, it's a long process. I read one story on CNET about American Airlines that in some cases, they spend 1,000 man-hours on each jet, getting it back and ready, up and running, to be used again. And then it's taken for test flights. Obviously, they want to make sure everything's fine before they start putting passengers on them. So this is nothing simple in terms of how you get back up and running.

In some ways, it'll be similar in some offices. When people start coming back to offices, you know, you've got to move that sandwich that somebody left there last March. It's probably a good idea to move that out of there now. And oh my God, are you going to open that office fridge? Can you only imagine what's going on in some office fridges around our country if they haven't been monitored and cleaned out. Anyway, with airlines, you know, that's part of the deal. You know, they've got to check individual engines.

Engines, obviously, are the most integral part of any airplane. And in some cases, with the 787 that I mentioned, the cost of those engines is like more than $40 million each. Have you ever looked at one of those when they take the cowlings, the outer cover on engines, taking it off, it looks pretty complicated. And I'm thinking, I'm Peter Mechanic, and I'm sent over, okay, check out that engine. I take the cover off, and I look at it, and I go, oh, my God, where do I start?

What do I do? These people are experts, the men and women who service our aircraft. And they're checking every little detail. And all of it's got to be checked over as if the thing was brand new and just coming off the assembly line. So that's what will be happening with airlines around the world and is happening already, including our airlines, who have been hit substantially

in the pocketbook. Millions and millions and millions of dollars lost. Money that will never be recovered. It's gone. And now they've got to start up again. All over again. And on this issue, for those of us like myself

who will be getting on a plane for the first time in a year in three months. I don't want to have to think about all those things. I just want to get on a plane and travel. Feel safe and good about it. Know the air I breathe is pure. Know that I'm keeping my distance as much as I can, that I'm wearing a mask, and that the plane is safe.

I don't have to think about that. And it could start with something as simple. You get on a plane and you go, man, that smells kind of musty. You don't want that. Because all that will do is underline to you, this plane hasn't been used in a while. I hope they've checked everything. I want to get on that plane and feel good, feel fresh.

I want the smells to be fresh. I want all, all of them. So next time you look up in the sky and you see an airplane flying over, which increasingly now you do, it's starting to feel a little like, you know, I came, I drove into Toronto. And when I did, I drive right by Pearson Airport. And I've done that drive more than a few times in the last year or so. And it was not unusual to do the drive and never see a plane taking off, landing or taxiing.

Never see one. Not this week. I saw, I think, three in the period of a couple of moments. Now, in the old days, you used to see a dozen coming into land or on the flight path coming into land or taxiing to get into position to take off. You see all kinds of action and movement. And that was just normal. Then we went through this long period of nothing.

And now it's slowly starting to crawl. And I love the hum of an airport. Airports are like cities, cities on their own. Remember the old Arthur Haley books? Arthur Haley is a Canadian, was a Canadian, and an author of great kind of dramatic novels. And he wrote Airport. And what was the very first one he wrote that got attention?

Was it flight into danger or something like that? About a situation where the pilots were impacted by bad food, spoiled food. Got sick and couldn't fly. And I think a passenger had to come and fly the plane to land or whatever. But it was a great story. And it led to eventually to his book, Airport. And the whole basis of Airport was how it was like a city with all the different staff who worked in the place.

And then he wrote Hotel, a kind of similar idea of a small city with all the different factions going on within a hotel, a big hotel. And those were a couple of the things that had an impact on me as a young guy. That's when I had the chance to work in an airport. The biggest one I ever worked in was Winnipeg International. The smallest one I ever worked in was Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, or Brandon, Manitoba, before I got my launch into the broadcasting business

by a job in Churchill, Manitoba, at the airport. But anyway, I can remember those days in the Winnipeg International Airport. There weren't a lot of them. I was only there for a month or two. But I loved it. It had this feel of, just like Arthur Haley had described, of a city. With all the different elements to it. Anyway, last point on this. This.

Potpourri Thursday. It's another airline story. American Airlines joined Southwest Airlines in extending the suspension of alcohol sales now they haven't been selling alcohol on many airlines and with a little flying that has been done and there's this disturbing thing i'm sure you've heard about it i'm sure you've seen some of the video clips of passengers going bonkers on planes, whether it's about distancing, whether it's about masking or what have you, and getting in fights with flight attendants. I mean, it's nuts.

And the concern is that alcohol could be fueling some of this. So they're suspending alcohol sales, at least on those two airlines in the States, and reinforcing the fact that they will not tolerate assault or mistreatment of crews. And they don't. And they'll land early, and the police will come on, and they'll haul you off, as you should be hauled off.

Okay. Tomorrow, Friday, it's the weekend special. And I've had, and we'll probably focus it on these two issues. I've had a fair degree of mail, and quite a bit of it from people who've never written before, which is good, which is great. That's what I'm always looking for. Remember to leave your name and the location you're writing from,

the city or town or country that you're writing from. And those two areas are residential schools, which we've talked about a couple of times, and is a passionate issue. And I've heard from, I don't want to say both sides, because there really are not two sides to this issue, but there are two feelings about what steps are needed moving forward. And so we'll hear some of that.

And also the question we had the other day when Ann Kavuki and the respected and internationally well-known privacy expert talked about the possibility of vaccine passports. That, too, has provoked conversation and discussion among listeners to the bridge. So we'll hear from some of those. I may just keep it to those two areas. We'll see. But if you want a last word on either of those topics please get them in try and get them in today uh thursday or at least overnight

because tomorrow i'm gonna have to tape early i've got some work to do in the morning uh early morning so that will be what is happening on those issues. Okay? Remember, name, location you're writing from. TheMansbridgePodcast at gmail.com. That's where to send it to, TheMansbridgePodcast at gmail.com. Looking forward to hearing from you. Looking forward to talking with you tomorrow.

I'm Peter Mansbridge. This has been The Bridge. We'll talk again in 24 hours.