The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Good Talk -- Does Getting Along Mean Anything?

Episode Date: November 19, 2021

So what actually was the result of the Biden-Trudeau talks in Washington -- did anyone actually gain anything?  Bruce and Chantal have their thoughts.And Parliament reopens next week -- what are the stakes and Chantal goes out on a limb!

Are you ready for good talk? And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here in Stratford, Ontario. Bruce Anderson is in Ottawa, Chantelle Hebert is in Montreal. You know, it is sometimes misleading to make too many judgments based on the personal relationships between, you know, a prime minister of Canada and the president of the United States. Sometimes these guys look like they really get along and other times they don't look like they get along. And what does that actually mean in terms of the relationship between the countries? You know, there's lots of examples over history. And, you know, I always think back to the Pierre Trudeau, Richard Nixon time

where Nixon was caught calling Trudeau a, and I use his word, asshole. Where Trudeau replied in that very Pierre Trudeau-esque way, you know, I've been called worse things by better people, which kind of put the end to that kind of back and forth but you know at the same time they clearly didn't like each other that much but the two countries got along in some areas not all areas but in some areas and so the personal relationship didn't necessarily have that much of an impact on on the relationship between the two countries we look at the situation now with justin trudeau who had a great relationship with barack

obama what did it actually deliver not sure he's got a good relationship it's said with joe biden and their history seems to have proven that with some of the past visits that Biden made to Ottawa when he was vice president. But here they are, locked horns on the issue of protectionism, and they both basically admitted that there's still a long way to go if they're ever going to get reach and an understanding on that front. So after their little meeting in Washington yesterday, which also had the president of, or the leader of Mexico in the, in the room at the same time, what was accomplished?

Was anything accomplished? Was it just, you know, one of those photo ops that passes through time and you kind of look back at it months later or years later and say, well, you know, nothing really happened there or did something happen?

What's our assessment of all this? Chantantal, why don't you start? Well, no one sang. And that's a reference for those who are too young to Ronald Reagan and Brian Mulroney singing at the tail end of the Quebec summit. And that something did happen there, not just the singing, but it paved the way for the FTA, the first free trade agreement, and eventually NAFTA, and here we are today. So it was truly a game-changing moment. I don't think anything of that nature took place yesterday. Still, from a Canadian perspective, I figure there was a small win in the sheer fact that the visit did happen and that it did allow Justin Trudeau to do the rounds. I don't think there is anyone that he could have met that he did not meet over the course of those two days.

And having all those doors open is not such an easy thing to achieve. The timing of it was also important or interesting as it came just as the latest stimulus package of President Biden is up for debate and up for votes in Congress. And Canada happens to have something to quarrel with that is fundamental to Canada. And that is what the subsidies that Joe Biden wants to offer Americans who buy American made electric cars could do to the future of our auto industry. So that's the positive side of it. On the negative side of it, it is usually the case that with this front and center for Canada and the Canada-U. concerns. They do happen to share the concerns over the auto industry's future, but on the politics of it in Congress. And his answer, I don't know and we'll see later, sounded like a don't call us about this, we'll call you,

which I don't think we're going to do, by the way, or we should do. We'll probably redouble our lobbying everywhere on this issue. But still, I think it speaks more to Joe Biden's political predicament and how his hands are largely tied by his political circumstances than by a lack of chemistry with Justin Trudeau. No, it's interesting. circumstances, than by a lack of chemistry with Justin Trudeau. No, it's interesting. We always, as Canadians, tend to look at, well, you know,

did the American media cover this visit the same way the Canadians covered it? And the answer is always no, they don't. Yesterday, I was sort of watching all the different networks to see who was doing what and how much coverage that it was all getting at one point uh msnbc had a picture up on the screen of um biden with trudeau but the headline at the bottom of the screen said uh president biden meets with mexican leader in washington it's like you know that was kind of it, you know, like that was their coverage on the issue. And they, you know, mixed up the stuff. Yeah.

Bruce, where are you on this? You know, I think the point that Chantal made at the last is probably the one that I would start with. Although I'm glad she raised Mulroney and Reagan. I think that's an important kind of bookend to understand some of the dynamics that we see today and how really different America is now. Back in the Reagan-Mulroney conversation time,

you could find free traders across both parties in America and you really have trouble finding them now. The Republicans are isolationist, protectionist, and the Democrats are not isolationist, but definitely lean towards protectionism. And the other thing about Reagan is it feels to me like he was a president who was um kind of in command of uh his situation and the direction of the country and i don't see that with biden now uh with all you know appropriate respect for him uh he's polling at 36 approval um his big problem is the republicans on the surface but his bigger problem probably is that his party doesn't really than, than kind of Trudeau Trump,

where Trump was saying every time Canada came up, Canada is our objective enemy is doing bad things to us is harming our economy is ripping us off is an unreliable and unhelpful ally. Biden is not there. Biden is saying, I don't know if I can do it, but it comes from a place of, I think we should. I think he understands the economic dynamics between the two countries. I think the chemistry, obviously, between he and Trudeau is pretty good. But I think he's saying, I've learned some hard lessons in the last several months, which are mostly to do with,

is my party with me? And also, why am I leaking oil with the American public so much? And so I think he's on tether hooks. And, you know, so I'm very much in the world of something happened because this conversation needs to happen. It won't be fixed overnight if it's fixed at all. It will be started and continued and continued. And somewhere along the way, rather than have a big kind of public ideological shift in the Democratic Party, so they all become kind of more free traders, at least as it relates to Canada,

there will quietly be a carve-out, or there won't be. But it's probably a good thing that American media doesn't cover it very much because only bad things can probably happen if the profile of Canada looking to have access to e-vehicle assembly became a higher profile issue. There'd be more protectionism rather than less. You know, what's interesting about the Biden approval ratings and how they impact this story and our relationship is that his policies, especially surrounding the infrastructure program

and all the money that's going to pour into the American economy, are extremely popular. Like, their numbers are high. And yet it's not, at least so far, running off to him as well. I mean, whether it was Afghanistan or any number of different things that happened over the summer have just made his numbers plummet. Now, you know, you both mentioned Reagan. We should keep in mind that Reagan, a year, year and a half into his presidency,

was not doing well. He turned it around by the midterms at the end of 82. I don't think it was nowhere near this bad, but I mean, he had dropped in terms of his popularity. So, you know, things can change and, you know, will the infrastructure program change his approval rating? I mean, the problem with infrastructure is it can be a great thing and it looks good on paper and there's a lot of money going in but it doesn't you don't see it in a week you know there's the that bridge in your town isn't suddenly rebuilt or restructured or what have you it takes a while um but the impact of his popularity on whatever he does, including his relationship with Canada and Mexico, likely suffers to some degree because of his internal political concerns.

Go ahead, Chantal. A couple of points on the approval rating. I don't cover U.S. politics, but even from a distance, the way the Afghan issue was handled would have had tremendous impact on the American psyche. It did on us, and we were standing back one row from what was happening on that score. I also think it hurt Biden internationally and his stature, the kind of messages it sent. And it is true, I agree with Bruce, that this is more normal than anything

Donald Trump was drawing at Canada. But looking at the situation, it seems clear to me that the strategy that Canada used, the Team Canada approach to Donald Trump is now going to have to be used in much the same way and with the same extent of intensity as over the Donald Trump period. And I think, you know, the federal government and others will tell you we did not stand down, but I think we did. Once Biden was elected, because the pandemic happened, we kind of relaxed and now are relaunching this. I was listening to Ontario Premier Doug Ford this week talking about how important the auto stuff was, which it is.

But it had been a really long time since I'd heard Donald Trump talk about Ontario US interests. And so we're coming a bit late to the realization that not being Trump is not everything. But Bruce talks about maybe there'll be a carve-out, maybe there won't be a carve-out. So let me just give you my take on what that means for this country's economy. It's not a to be or not to be and then we'll do something else moment. We are in a transition to a greener economy. For us, that means that our oil and gas industry is over time going to go in some decline. Not today, but tomorrow. Our auto industry is a key piece of our economic infrastructure. That transition means it needs to move to the electric

car manufacturing model, and we need our piece of that pie, or else our car industry, our auto industry is going to become the equivalent of those who were making horse carriages when the cars arrived. So this isn't just about will we be selling this piece or that piece? It's about whether the industry has a future. And that is why people in the industry are freaking out and saying things like this is much worse than anything that Donald Trump ever threatened to throw at our industry. So for the Canadian government, for the Ontario government, for any government, there cannot be no carve out. I agree with Bruce, that doesn't mean we should have a signing ceremony on the lawn of the White House, that this should probably be accomplished through back channels because it makes sense for everyone. But it is a crucial issue. I was just going to say Chantal's point about transition to e-vehicles is so good.

It's so important because when transition really starts to take hold, it happens very fast. And man, you can be left behind in the dust awfully quick if you're not prepared for that. Anyway, sorry, Bruce, go ahead. Yeah, well, one of the things I would say about that is that I think that decarbonization transition is gathering pace and momentum and capital is flowing to places part because some of the biggest manufacturers foot dragged on it and lost early opportunities, but they're gathering some momentum. as chantal said that these decisions about where plants are going to be built that are equipped to make these vehicles are being made now um and over the next two or three years so i absolutely think it's critical and and by saying maybe there will be a carve out maybe there won't be i wasn't uh in any way indicating that it would be uh you know easy to get past the fact that there isn't a carve-out or that it wouldn't harm Canada. I think the consequences really are great.

I think the way that I've worked on the softwood lumber issues over the years, and my sense of how this works when you're trying to get something done that's kind of rational for the American economy, because it's not really rational for them to upset the supply chain arrangements that they have with Canada. The instinct on the part of us Canadians sometimes is to say, well, let's really escalate. Let's really raise the profile of it.

Let's make this impassioned we've been friends and allies argument. Let's call on Americans better angels to not do this harmful thing to us. And that almost never works. What does work is making sure that a thousand conversations happen with local representatives, senators, state officials who understand the economic dynamics of their community and who know that they live the reality that for i think it's 48 states canada's the number one export market uh huge cross-border business uh goes on and it's not that we'd be threatening them it's that they need that those that the

officials at that level just have a better understanding of what happens if you disrupt something that's already working pretty well. Whereas at the at the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden level, people feel more liberated to talk about kind of large sweeping change as though nothing bad can come from cracking the egg. But, you know, I think that we're in the right direction. I thought that the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister made their points well in terms of the public commentary. And I think obviously, from what you can tell from a distance the Canadian ambassador has the bull by the horns and is kind of working a strategy on this and so fingers crossed that it continues to operate the way that it should. I want to ask you that will be just one small

point yes Chrystia Freeland knows these files inside out. That will be a big, big test for Mélanie Joly, because as opposed to François-Philippe Champagne, who replaced Chrystia Freeland as Foreign Affairs Minister, Chrystia Freeland kept the Canada-US file. That, as far as my understanding goes of the cabinet, as it has now been reshuffled is not the case. And it's hard to know how many connections Mélanie Joly has built over time in Washington and on Capitol Hill.

It's one of the question marks and one of the big question marks about that new cabinet, exactly how she's going to fit into it, Melanie Jolie, that is, and how she's going to handle that global affairs portfolio. Let me ask one last question on this visit yesterday, because there was a scene, as I said earlier, I kind of was flipping through the various channels, Canadian and American, to try and see who was saying what. And at one point, I think I was passing through Fox, and they had their, they had one of their White House correspondents on the White House lawn

talking about something, not about that, not about the Three Amigos Summit, something else. But in the background, you could see the Mexican delegation out in front of the White House, all of them taking, you know, pictures of themselves from this, you know, great visit at the White House, how exciting it was that they were, you know, all kind of there. And these were, you know, a mix of what appeared to be senior bureaucrats and in some cases, perhaps ministers, I don't know. But it made me think about this whole idea of flooding the zone, which the two countries, the visiting countries did yesterday,

trying to get their ministers, some of their key ministers, in front of their counterparts in the U.S. government. And there was time set aside for that kind of thing yesterday. Now, it was all crowded into one day, and you sort of have this, on the one hand, you think, okay, that's good. On the other hand, you're thinking, geez, the Americans, they just want to get all this done, get them into town, make them feel good, and get them out of town, and we can say we've done our thing in terms of our two closest neighbors. Are those kind of days worth it? Do real relationships happen as a result of those kind of moments where they put the ministers in a room or virtually in a room with their counterparts from the other governments?

Does that actually make a difference or is that all just optics? Bruce? Well, I think that the human relationships do matter more than we can even imagine sometimes. It's so hard to start a conversation with another politician across the border about an issue that's an irritant. If you don't really know them, if you've never talked with them before. And so the investment of time and energy in these relationships really, it doesn't solve for everything, but it definitely can make a difference for the better when,

when the going gets rough, if you've had conversations when the going isn't that rough but you know to your point peter uh washington dc is a little bit like this kind of multiplex of theater where there's different things going on in the city all the time and it's hard to stay focused on what is the most important thing and for most people in washington the uh the conversations with canada wouldn't have necessarily been the most important thing. Having said that, when I look at some of the entrails that I'm seeing, I'm assuming that it was a good thing for the prime minister to have a sit down with Kamala Harris, which he did. It was one of the most kind of widely distributed photos coming out of the thing was they seem to be having a kind of a quiet conversation. Why I think that's important

and why I hope that the prime minister or officials on Canada's behalf were also having conversations with Republicans is we don't know what the shape of US politics is going to be like after the 2022 elections. It's a fair bet that Biden isn't going to run again, in my view. And who is the Democratic standard bearer at that time? Who knows? But Harris obviously has at least a kind of a notional lead. But the House is probably going to flip to Republicans. And it may well be that our salvation on this issue will come from Republicans rather than Democrats. I don't think we know the answer to that. So we're better to kind of flood the field and reach out to as many potentially influential stakeholders as possible.

You know, we got to write that down, Chantel. Now, Bruce is on the record as one, Biden is not going to run again. And two, as we all remember, a couple of weeks ago, he said Trudeau won't run again. Do you have a block on the word probably? Because I thought I said probably, but we can go back and take it. I tend to come for once to Bruce's rescue rather than pile on. I tend to agree with his sense that Biden is unlikely to be a two-term president. I think he himself has raised that possibility that he would be a one-term president. As for your question about meeting people face-to-face, I'm no diplomat, but you and I know that the best way to develop good, sound, reliable

sources is actually not only to meet them face to face, but to expand the conversation beyond our immediate needs in a time of a crisis for information. You're much more likely, if you develop a face to face and then that kind of a relationship to at least get straight talk from the people you speak with. Then if you're just a voice on the phone that rings when something bad is happening and there's a fire in the kitchen. So I think that time is time well spent. It's valuable. And it also teaches a number of fairly inexperienced, as in they have not been around for 20 years and they don't have the knowledge that Christian Freeland has of Washington and Capitol Hill. the people across the table are coming from. And that's much easier to do face-to-face than if you're talking sporadically on the phone or even via Zoom. Also easier to get someone to take your calls or take a meeting if you have actually met them. Peter, I don't know if you want to move off

this, but I had one other thought. I was listening to Chantal and thinking, this is so so true what she's saying about these relationships and the nature of the conversation in part because political leaders have one thing in common is that they live in this very weird bubble where most of their time is spent with people who are coming to them with advice or requests. But those conversations aren't really about a shared experience. And when leaders can get together, if they're political animals, they share a political chemistry. They like to talk with each other about the shared experience of being leaders and what it means. And they may not get into the details of it,

but it's a conversation that is really quite unique, I think, in the political life of leaders of countries. And so that's why I think over time, we've seen examples of those relationships really playing, potentially anyway, playing a bit of an outsized role because Biden can talk with trudeau and vice versa about things that not very many other people share as experiences and that's quite unique okay we are going to take a quick break here because we're going to switch subjects and

parliament reopens next week uh monday they elect a speaker. Tuesday, the House sits and there's a throne speech and the action begins. What kind of action are we going to witness? And what's that House going to look like? And how united are the various groups that will be sitting in it? We'll have that conversation when we come back. Our podcast is brought to you by Questrade, Canada's fastest growing and award-winning online broker. Tired of getting dinged with fees every time you buy or sell U.S. stocks? Well, good news. With Questrade, you don't have to. You can hold U.S. dollars in your

trading account and avoid expensive, forced conversion fees every time you trade U.S. stocks. Switch today and get up to $50 worth of free trades. Visit Questrade.com to open an account and use promo code QUEST. Conditions apply. Looking for a way to zhuzh up your dinner options? With 21 flavorful recipes every week, Chef's Plate ensures dinner time will never be boring. Our menu includes easy and quick 15-minute meals and favorite classics, including vegetarian options

and more. We don't compromise on the yum factor. Each Chef's Plate box comes with pre-portioned ingredients measured out perfectly for your meals. Say goodbye to wasted produce and hello to saving money. Go to chefsplate.com and click the sign up button and apply the code THEBRIDGE.

That's THEBRIDGE for 50% off your first two boxes. And welcome back. This is Good Talk on The Bridge. It's Friday and lots to talk about on this day. Before we get going, a couple of reminders. You're listening on either SiriusXM channel 167 Canada Talks

or on your favorite podcast platform. And, of course, we are grateful that you've joined us for this edition of Good Talk. The other thing I should remind you, if you didn't hear yesterday's podcast, by popular demand and because of your requests, I've decided that I will sign some book plates because I can't get out there on traditional book tours. Many of you are asking for me to sign your book. The easiest way to do that is to sign a book tours, many of you are asking for me to sign your book. The easiest way to do that is to sign a book plate,

which I have some now finally, and I will respond to your request for a book plate to put in the book, either for yourself or for a gift for Christmas, what have you. The man's hats, Peter and koozies for beer. Is there any other merchandise that we can get by, you know, just going online or writing you an email?

T-shirts, you know. T-shirts. T-shirts. We have noted that you've found yet another way to plug that book. This is a request I had resisted, and I said I wasn't going to do it again this year after last year signing, I don't know, whatever it was, a thousand of them. Um, but I also, I was, I'm away a lot this, this fall. So it was also making it harder,

but I'm here for the next couple of weeks. So I thought, um, we should do this. And so I, uh, I will. So drop me a line, the Mansbridge podcast at gmail.com,ansbridgepodcast at gmail.com, themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. The publisher requires that you include a proof of purchase slip. And that can be a you in the book, a picture of you in the book, or a picture of the receipt, whatever. And we'll get those out. Okay, enough of that.

Let's deal with the parliament returning next week uh chantal why don't you uh set the stage for us in terms of expectation for for what happens okay so the the logistics as you stated them on monday um electing a speaker the former speaker is running again but he does have competition. That's a vote by all MPs in the House of Commons. So that will take whatever time it takes. And at that point, I'm guessing, and the mechanics of this, there's an extra logistical wrinkle here. I don't think that at this point it is possible to have a hybrid parliament. I think it requires a motion to be passed.

So that would presumably mean that the people who show up to vote for the speaker would be all of them vaccinated to make their way to the House of Commons to go through that exercise. And that would presumably mean that those who are not there are going to get phone calls to check whether they were absent because they are amongst the very few conservatives who are not vaccinated. I don't totally expect parliamentarians to try to storm the building, but you do know the Conservatives want to raise a point of privilege on the issue of mandatory vaccination

to take one seat physically in the House of Commons. So all of that will have to be angled over the first few days. The Trump speech is the next day. That again poses, I'm told, logistical challenges. How many people do you allow in there, etc., etc. So there are pandemic wrinkles. The politics of it, I don't think, and you guys should look in your hard disks as I say that, I don't think there has ever been a federal government defeated over a throne speech. It has happened in provinces that parties have been defeated over throne speeches,

in Ontario, in BC, to name two places. But that's because there was a deal between the official opposition of the day and a third party to replace that government. But even Stephen Harper in 2008, who faced a parliamentary crisis, had his strong speech voted for by a majority of MPs before that crisis occurred. a really bold prediction that I invite Bruce to gamble against this government is not going to be facing a no confidence motion that brings it down over the throne speech next week. Boy, you're really going out on a limb there, Chantal. And before he gambles against me on this, because I know he likes to gamble on, you know, the things that could make me rich. Two things. I think the biggest danger for all parties in this parliament, but that goes to the opposition parties, is to think that they can resume the games and the toxicity that was the case when Parliament last sat last spring, and why I'm saying that is not just because we've just had an election and the Liberals did win a minority mandate to think it's fun to watch fun and games

in the House of Commons with BC undergoing what it is undergoing. Well, go ahead, Peter. No, I was just going to say, you know, totally agree with that, because this is not a one-week wonder that's happening in BC. This is going to take a long time. They've got to rebuild roads and rebuild bridges and rebuild rail lines and do work in the port. I mean, it's like there's a lot of stuff.

And this is a multi-billion dollar operation. The feds have, you know, you can argue about did they move too slowly or did they have to wait for a request to hear the B.C. declare a national emergency or an emergency situation, all of which they have now done. The feds are moving, they're moving soldiers, they're moving money, they're doing various things, and so are other provinces and other groups within the country. But it's a long term situation. And, you know, you ignore it at your peril in terms of your behavior on Parliament Hill. That probably goes for journalists, too, before Bruce mentions it. Well, all journalists aren't the same as we know.

And we shouldn't talk about them as monolithic, but for sure the abiding ethos should be, let's just do the work. Let's just concentrate on doing the work. And I think even before the horrific events in BC, that was the kind of the quiet billboard from Canadians aimed at Ottawa, which is cut the drama. We don't want another version of a crappy TV show about politics. We just want you to do the work to let us try to get our lives back to normal, to finish this pandemic once and for all, to see the dust clearing a little bit on the future of the economy, hopefully.

And so I think that will be the approach that we tend to see. Although, you know, I'm not going to gamble against Chantal, but I do want to point out that it was a few weeks ago that I made a prediction that I think is turning out to be accurate, which is that the next several months is going to be more about the drama in the Conservative Party than about anything else. I still think that that is going to be the case, and I feel pretty good about that bet. And I don't think that's a great thing for the country, but I think it's a thing. I think the, you know,

my experience of observing these, and you guys have had just as much experience, so maybe you'll see it differently, is that they're a little bit like icebergs. What you see on the surface or above the surface is usually indicative of something bigger and worse underneath the surface. And so Aaron O'Toole did probably the logical thing, which is to take a sledgehammer to it and try to deal with it in a very forceful way. And it wasn't because Denise Batters is so powerful or important as a thought leader. It's because he must know that there are others who feel that way. And if they don't fear any consequences from him as leader, then that story will repeat itself numerous times. I think

it still will. I don't think that that strategy really works in a party that doesn't want to be united. And I think this is a party that does not want to be united. It is more interested in fighting its internal fights than it is in fighting the Liberals. So that brings me to what will Aaron O'Toole do in the House over the coming days and weeks? I think there are going to be some surprises in the throne speech. I think one of the things that's been a little bit missing from the coverage of the run-up to Parliament is, at least I haven't seen it, is people kind of digging out what is it that the Liberals are going to put in that we haven't thought about? Because I think there will be some of those things.

I don't know what they are. I'm not kind of hinting at some knowledge that I have. It just feels to me like that has sometimes been their game plan. And it seems to me that against that, the conservatives have been battling these internal schisms. And their go to every day, if they're not doing that, is inflation is a big problem and trudeau's a jerk and i think inflation could become a public opinion uh issue but i don't think it is now i think saying trudeau is a jerk uh we've we've said this all of us before it they think it there's some part of the public who thinks it but there's a big part of the public that goes, that's sort of either not my view or it's not the point.

And so I'm really curious to see the dynamics going forward and including the dynamics around vaccinations of MPs, because it feels to me like that's going to be another kind of ugly scene in the steps of the Conservative Party right now. To use the jerk analogy, and a lot of Canadians would respond to the Trudeau is a jerk with the your guy is a bigger jerk. And then move on from there. It is possible that the Conservatives will think that they can use the return of the House of Commons to be as toxic and as aggressive as possible as a diversion from their own troubles.

I don't think that will help them at a time when they've been slipping significantly in public opinion that that kind of approach will come across as anything other than tone deaf versus the public mood. But I don't discard that they will do this. I agree with Bruce that the descent over Aranotul is like an iceberg, and chopping off the little bit of ice that was on the surface does not mean that the iceberg is in any way, shape, or form melting in front of anybody's eyes. The problem with what happened this week, kicking Senator Batters from the National Caucus, I understand she's still part of this, as we speak of the

Senate Conservative Caucus, is that it puts Aaron O'Toole closer to the day when he will want to expel someone who has a huge following within Conservative ranks and who is not part of the usual suspects, and that when that day comes, he's done. His leadership will be over. The second problem is that a lot of his caucus support, and it is real, but it is often based, as in the case of the Quebec caucus, on the fear that anyone else would be worse. And so better stick with the one that you have now, who actually talks the talk that you agree with,

which is the party needs to reposition to do better than to take a chance that you're going to end up with the pendulum swinging back to those who are angry at Aaron O'Toole. And with a minority calendar, a devastating election for the Conservatives could then be just around the corner and those Quebec MPs and others could not be back for the day when they pick a leader that actually manages to unite the party. And at this point there is no uniting figure standing in the wings to take over from Arnaud Thau. Yeah, you know Chantal, I would take your bet about the government falling on this if the Conservatives were polling even with the Liberals as they were just before the election. You mean that the NDP and the Bloc Québécois would seriously hand power to the Conservatives? No, I think that the dynamics to try to cause an election are really only those accidental and

wrongheaded dynamics. When a leader feels like if I can find a way to make this happen, I have a better chance of surviving in the job than otherwise. I don't think we're there. I don't think those dynamics exist. So I I'm not going to take the bet, but, but I think that's an area. True, but a government that fell now, and that is why governments have only fallen on the Trump speech when there was already a deal to install the official opposition in government with the third party, is for the NDP and the Bloc to consider that they would, in any scenario, defeat Justin Trudeau within a week of the House coming back so that Aaron O'Toole becomes Prime Minister would mean that those parties would face the wrath of the people who

voted for him. I know, you're offering me a sucker bet and I'm not taking it. I think that's, you know, when you're betting on things that look like sure things, I don't stand in the way of putting money on the line to just send you a check next week. Here's what I don't get. And it's especially so about the Conservatives. I do not understand why at a time when no one, no one in the country wants an election right now, they just don't want one.

There are so many other things front of mind. Why the conservatives are spending so much time on this issue. This is a perfect opportunity for any political party. The country's at a crossroads on some of the biggest issues we as a nation are going to face and for generations to come, whether it's climate, whether it's indigenous affairs, whether it's the economy, inflation, you name it. All these issues are critical to the future of this country and the future of our people. And to be watching Ottawa and seeing it sink into this once again,

this guy's not good enough, this woman's not smart enough for cabinet position, or whatever the case may be people must just you know sure there are some people who love an election they and you know we talk about the you know those who have a you know a particular feeling about trudeau but the overwhelming majority the last thing they want right now is a is an election what they want is a parliament that's going to address the big issues that are in front of it in a smart, constructive, innovative way and offer various solutions and debate them in a constructive fashion.

But what they're seeing is this kind of stuff going on and, you know, let's bring down Aaron O'Toole. It just seems like they don't have their finger on the pulse, I don't think, of what, you know, most Canadians would like to see happen. And those aren't Canadians who are, you know, pro-liberal or pro-NDP or pro-conservatives. They're just Canadians who want to see something actually done

and cut the crap of what's been just sort of kind of too much out front in terms of political discussion for too long. And, you know, we lead into this too. I mean, let's face it. We have a role in these discussions as well and giving oxygen to these kind of fights that happen within parties at different times. Anyway, I want to get your thoughts

on that little soliloquy, but first we'll take our final break. Here it is. Looking to cook smarter and faster at home? Chef's Plate dinner boxes give you back the time spent on meal planning and grocery shopping by delivering everything you need to cook delicious meals right to your door. Each Chef's Plate box also comes with pre-portioned ingredients measured out perfectly for your meals.

Say goodbye to wasted produce and hello to saving money. Go to chefsplate.com, click the sign-up button, and apply the code THEBRIDGE. That's one word, THEBRIDGE, to get 50% off your first two boxes. If you have type 2 diabetes, it might be time for you to have a heart-to-heart with your own heart. There's no sugar-coating it. Type 2 diabetes affects more than just your blood sugar levels. It can impact many parts of your body, including your heart. If you have diabetes and a history of heart disease, there are medications that, along with diet and exercise, can lower your risk of dying from problems related to your heart and blood vessels. Talk to your doctor today and visit MyHeartMatters.ca to learn more.

Brought to you by two of Canada's leading pharmaceutical research-based companies. Our Black Product Sponsor is The Economist. If you don't already know, its expertise lies in making sense of the world's most important developments. It offers completely independent opinion and analysis, giving you a balanced global view of an issue instead of a biased or politically motivated opinion. And don't be fooled by the name. It covers pretty much everything from culture to science and technology, from politics to finance and business. It's Black Friday. Get 50% off the annual digital subscription to The Economist.

This gives you access to the website, their app, podcasts, newsletters, webinars, and more. It's a great offer, and we think it'll make a difference the way you see the world. There's a reason world leaders read it. We hope you will give it a try. Just visit economist.com slash bridge50 to get 50% off your first year, including full access to the app and economist.com. That's economist.com slash bridge50, where 50 is a number, for 50% off your first year to enjoy The Economist whenever and wherever you want.

Okay, back for final thoughts with a good talk. Chantel's in Montreal. Bruce is in Ottawa. I'm in Stratford, Ontario. Are the politicians on Parliament Hill like totally out of touch with what most thought is in the country on the part of Canadians from all walks of life, from all political backgrounds in terms of what they want to see happen in this new parliament? Bruce? No, I don't think so i think the question that is on my mind is um and you and i talked about this the other day a little bit peter i think the conservatives would make a mistake to replace aaron o'toole now i think basically they'd be choosing to replace somebody

who as chantal mentioned has made an effort to reposition the party closer to a place that might succeed politically in forming a government. That doesn't mean that there aren't blemishes on his scorecard or that people can't be angry about the fact that he campaigned for the leadership one way and then he flip flopped. But if we just look at the question of climate change and climate actions as one of the schisms within the Conservative movement right now. Aaron O'Toole said he was against the carbon tax and then he said here's one that I think is a better one. That's a better position for the Conservatives than this constant kind of pretending to care but not really caring and not offering a policy.

And for sure, Andrew Scheer's policy was nothing in that space. I mentioned that one because I had a conversation with businesses across British Columbia with the BC Business Council last night. And we were talking about a variety of things, including obviously the devastating flooding that's going on there, but also the data that we've been gathering about attitudes towards climate change and climate action. There is almost no place in Canada where you can find a significant number of people saying let's not work on solving this. So I hope that the Conservative Party solves for this schism and some of the others. I do think Aaron O'Toole has been trying to do some of the right things. I saw in his appointment of Tim Uthal for outreach, somebody who he had empowered to say things that reflected the fact that the Conservative brand has been positioned not as a welcoming brand for minority communities. So I think he's doing the right thing.

And I think that there are a good number of conservatives who want to reposition that party to a place that is more aligned with mainstream voting Canada. And I'm hopeful that they succeed in that, because, as I've said before, I think we need good competition. And because we might run out of time, Peter, maybe we can talk about the Leafs surging next week. Just a second here. We're now going to talk about hockey with me sitting in Montreal. And before you brag about your Leafs, just let's wait till the end of the season. That's right.

The season ends this week remember this sequence from last year but i do have things to say about the conservatives uh you ask about their tone because i think when you talked about mps being disconnected from the public mood you really meant conservatives uh the tone has been particularly striking. Those examples you gave were from conservatives. I think it goes beyond dissent within the ranks and the defense of their leader. This is a party that has become addicted to its form of fundraising, and it fundraisers by making people angry. And the people who send that money are people who happen to believe that Justin Trudeau is the worst thing that's ever happened to this country. So this is where they're going. And on the score, as an aside, I'm guessing Maxim

Belny is looking at all this thinking, what if I could pick up one or two MPs out of this one day and have representation in the House of Commons? And it's fair of him to look for that, but there are conservatives who worry about things like that. Now, I'm going to give you four names. Stockwell Day, Thomas Mulcair, Stéphane Zion, Michael Ignatief. None of those persons is a conservative. All of them are leaders of the opposition who lost the campaign, not always badly, and who wanted a

second chance. Where did they end up? That's the history that Aaron O'Toole is fighting. There is only in past decades, more recent time, one leader of the opposition who got a second chance. He was called Stephen Harper, and he had just reunited the two branches of the conservative movement. So I think what Bruce said about keeping Aaron O'Toole makes a lot of sense, but I don't think it matters what Bruce or I or you think about this. The fact is that Aaron O'Toole does not have a mandate from the membership of his party to reposition the party. The fact is that he campaigned to do the opposite. And the fact is that he is never going to get to August 2023 in one piece unless he moves that vote forward and gets a mandate for his party. This choice is between the death of the Tausend C or facing uh the guillotine and saying do

you really want to cut my head off well that's well i love that very simple very clear what a choice yes well all those people faced stockwell they tried to run for his own job thomas malcare went through a leadership confidence vote we know what what happens. Stéphane Zion was basically told to pack it up and go home. And Michael Ignaceff, who didn't resign on the night of, was told the next day that it was the only thing he could do. 15 seconds for each of you before we close out. What's the one thing you're looking for next week when Parliament reopens? Bruce. What's the one thing you're looking for next week when Parliament reopens? Bruce?

Well, I'm really stymied still by this Conservative MP vaccination thing. I know it's a sideshow and I feel guilty about being as interested in it as I am. But I'm really curious that they haven't fashioned a solution to this sense of mystery about how many of their MPs aren't vaccinated. Chantal? I would really like to read a Trump speech that sounds businesslike and that talks about things that are going to get done rather than lofty language. And I know it goes against the grain, but since the governor general is in the process of learning French, I fear figure short, effective sentences in both languages would be much appreciated. I think everybody would vote for a short,

effective speech from the throne. Cause we've all heard some really long, boring ones over time. All right. That's going to wrap it up for this week's Good Talk. Chantal in Montreal, Bruce in Ottawa, thank you to both. And thank you to all our listeners across the network of SiriusXM Canada and, of course, wherever you're listening on your podcast.

I'm Peter Mansbridge. This has been Good Talk for this week. And we'll see you again on the bridge on Monday.