The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Is Putin Dialing Back On His Ukraine Dreams?

Episode Date: December 15, 2025

As the year ends, are we finally seeing some significant movement on a path to a ceasefire in Ukraine? Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School at the University of Toronto drops by for her final 2025 se...ssion on The Bridge. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 And hello there, Peter Mansperch here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. It's Monday. Dr. Janice Stein is here. Here's the question. Is Vladimir Putin dialing back on his dreams for Ukraine? That's coming right up. And welcome to the, well, our last week of 20s,
Starting point is 00:00:30 2025 in terms of the bridge, we're going to take a couple of weeks off, have a little break over the holidays, come back in the first week of January, so we're looking forward to that. But we're going to try and be in the holiday spirit to a degree today when we tell you what the question of the week is going to be. But the subject of the day with Dr. Stein is a serious one, and that is the situation in Ukraine. There are things. seemingly happening. How serious is it? Could we be looking at 2026 as the breakthrough year finally on coming to grips with the
Starting point is 00:01:12 situation in Ukraine? We'll get to that in a moment with Dr. Stein, but first of all, I'll let you know about the question of the week. I mean, listen, this is a time where we're hoping, in spite of all the bad news, and There was a lot of it over the weekend. In spite of all the bad news, we're trying to look for something to grab onto, to hope for. They had a sense that, you know, things are difficult, but there's always a glimmer of hope. So how do we find glimmers of hope?
Starting point is 00:01:50 We look for the things that perhaps have gone well for us this year. So that's going to be the question for this week. And in a general sense, it's kind of, when you look at 2025, what's the happiest news event that you saw in 2025? You can make it a little bit more personal if you want. You know, what's the best thing that happened to you in 2025? So we're kind of, we're going to open it up a little bit. All right?
Starting point is 00:02:22 So, happiest news event of 2025, what was it? Or what was the happiest thing, the best thing, that happened to you in 2025? There's your question. It's broad. It gives you some room. But what doesn't give you room is the conditions that are placed on the question, which start with your answer's got to be 75 words or fewer. All right.
Starting point is 00:02:52 That's a hard condition, 75 words or fewer. You have to have your answer in before 6 p.m. on Wednesday. Include your name, your full name, and the location you're writing from. And you write to the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. Looking forward to seeing your answers to the question of the week. All right, let's get to Dr. Stein Because I know how much you enjoy listening
Starting point is 00:03:28 and thinking about the things she has to say. So let's listen in on this week's conversation with Dr. Janice Stein from the Muck School at the University of Toronto. So Janice, over almost four years now, Ukraine-Russia war. And we kept waiting for some kind of a breakthrough, something that would really signal
Starting point is 00:03:50 movement on one side or the other. And it seems to me, and I know there are conditions on this and we'll get to those conditions in a moment, but it seems that Zelensky's concession really over the past couple of days of okay, forget
Starting point is 00:04:06 about the NATO membership thing. That would seem to me a big deal on one that should prompt a concession of some kind on the other side. But first of all, is it a major concession? Yes and no.
Starting point is 00:04:22 Yes. Yes and no. It's not new. That's really why I'm saying it's not news to Putin. Frankly, under Biden, long before Donald Trump, too, became president. Privately, Zelensky conceded that he would not be joining middle in anything like the foreseeable future. There was no path to join. The Europeans conceded.
Starting point is 00:04:52 Putin knew. So this is a public acknowledgement of what has been going on. For the NATO members, what does this matter so much for the NATO members? Because fundamental to NATO is this open-door policy, which allows NATO to admit, whom it decides to admit. And the way Putin has phrased its demands, it is, NATO shall not expand any further. Well, that's off the table privately and publicly for NATO members. Right before the war and ongoing, he said, NATO shall not, you know, we want NATO forces out of Poland.
Starting point is 00:05:45 And neighboring East European states, that was clearly. off the table. So what we've seen here, Peter, is a narrowing. Putin has actually, believe it or not, move back from these extreme demands, which were
Starting point is 00:06:04 never a starter. And the Europeans have acknowledged publicly that there's no path for Ukraine to join NATO. The condition that Solansky places on it is that there are clear security
Starting point is 00:06:20 guarantees from Europe and the U.S. Yes. For him to drop the NATO. So how does that play? I assume that plays with Europe and to a lesser degree, perhaps the U.S., but does it play at all with Russia? So two parts to those European security guarantees, right? one is what would Europe and the United States do if Russia attacked in the future and let's look back 30 years
Starting point is 00:06:55 1994 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union a whole bunch of nuclear missiles Soviet era nuclear missiles in Ukraine and Ukraine agrees to send those missiles back to Russia because everybody was worried about loose nukes at that time what would happen but they got a signed there was a memorandum signed by russia the united kingdom and the united states guaranteeing ukrainians borders russia i mean a signed memorandum mo you guaranteed ukraine's borders that's all can be enough for zelensky this time that's why this is so important he wants an article 5 guarantee. If he can't go inside NATO, he wants the equivalent of Article 5 in NATO, which says, we will come to your assistance if you are attacked. It commits the people who sign it
Starting point is 00:08:00 to actually do something. The Europeans are prepared to do that. I don't think Donald Trump and this White House are prepared to do it. And it was interesting news over the weekend because there's non-stop meetings going on now, which is a signal that there's some progress. The Europeans said, we will issue these guarantees without the United States if necessary. Will that be enough for Zelensky? Who knows? There's a second part to this, Peter. Zelensky wants European forces on the ground in Ukraine.
Starting point is 00:08:49 Two problems, it's not clear if the Europeans will do it. And that means Germany, France, the bigger European powers. And Putin has said, if any European forces are ever deployed inside Ukraine, does work. that's war with europe and is that when you say any forces so that would include what we like to refer to peacekeeping forces yeah well you know how do you square the circle the only way you can square the circle is you do what the united states did in a sense a much weaker version, what the United States should be during the Cold War. You have a small number of forces, lightly armed, you know, no arm, no tanks, you know, really lightly armed.
Starting point is 00:09:53 So what benefit do they provide? They're what we call a trip wire. What Russian forces are going to shoot their way through European forces, knowing that if they ever did that, that would mean and all that war in Europe so it's not the size of the force it could be called a peacekeeping force they don't have to be heavily armed
Starting point is 00:10:19 but you just need European troops on the ground because the Russians would have to go around them but they can't go through them and that's why I think Putin is resisting to the degree that he is so
Starting point is 00:10:34 so what are we saying here about the development of over the weekend is that it looks good on paper, but it really doesn't mean anything. No. I don't think we're on paper yet. We're in this back and forth, back and forth, back and forth.
Starting point is 00:10:53 I mean, you can literally see if you watch the airlines. You go to Moscow, you get so far. It then goes back to Europe and Kiev, and they push it back. And then it comes to Washington, Florida, Miami. And then it goes back to Kiev and Moscow is dialed in on the phone. What's different this time from all the other times? We're actually in an informal process of negotiation here.
Starting point is 00:11:27 All the other times has been one meeting, no deal, walk away, another six months, another year of fighting. So this time is different. Yeah, even David Ignatius was writing in the Washington Post over the weekend that it looks to him, and he's a pretty seasoned guy, it looks to him like they are inching closer to a deal. That's right. The building blocks are slowly accumulating. Yeah. There's one other concession which, and who knows, right, because it's all in play right now.
Starting point is 00:12:03 but Russia had asked and demanded that Vladimir Zelensky not only see territory that they haven't conquered yet but that he occupy other parts south of the Donbass that seems to have fallen off and there's discussion now
Starting point is 00:12:29 and again so muddy but the fact that this is now being discussed show some inching forward no longer would Russia occupy but there's a proposal that Ukrainian forces pull back Russian forces don't advance in all that disputed territory
Starting point is 00:12:51 and that it'd be a demilitarized territory so that's a concession by Putin frankly that's much less extreme than where he started. So he's made a few along the way. A concession about land he's already conquered. A concession, no, it's about land that he wanted to conquer.
Starting point is 00:13:18 Right. Hasn't, okay. He said, that's mine. Pull back now. And there's some sort of vague discussion about demilitarizing on both sides. Sozon and cease force would have to move back, too. And it would be, you know, a demilitarized zone. Think of what happened between the two Koreas in 1953.
Starting point is 00:13:44 But I guess what I'm getting at is what, if anything, has Putin conceded or given up other than in his dreams? Like that one. You know, I want that land, so you've got to not occupy. I mean, it's kind of, I don't have it yet, but I, you know, I don't want you to go in there either. So, like, what is he giving up other than a promise or a commitment to stop the war? Yeah. The best way to put this, he's dialed back his dreams. All right?
Starting point is 00:14:21 Right. That's, frankly, and that's why we're not, we're inching closer to a deal, but there's a long way to go. because he's dialed back his dreams. And it's clear that Zelensky is more open now that he was a year ago. Also, to making some tough concessions. And that's really, that's for two reasons, Peter. It's just, you know, they are losing territory very slowly on the ground. And the question for Zelensky, what is this battle?
Starting point is 00:14:58 it looked like a year from now. Probably doesn't look better in all honesty and could look worse. And that's the big driver along with the fact that he's lost his closest advisor to a corruption scandal. So it's tough. Now, one other concession that Zelensky made, he said, and he made this to the Europeans, he said he would hold elections as soon as he got meaningful security guarantees. Well, that's a big one from him.
Starting point is 00:15:36 It could be as early as this coming year in 2026. Right. And that's a really meaningful one. And the reason it is, that doesn't depend on Vladimir Putin. That depends on whether the Europeans will step up. And everything coming out of Europe, you know, now Carl Bill, the, you know, as a reputation, former former reformist or reputations as
Starting point is 00:16:00 peace mediator, peacemaker, and you're of a different kind than Donald Trump's. There's more to the record there. There really is. You know, it said openly over the weekend, the Europeans will step up to give these guarantees. They are so shocked, Peter,
Starting point is 00:16:19 by that document we talked about last week, that National Security Strategy. They are so shocked that the mood is now the relationship of the United States. There's no hope here. We cannot move Donald Trump. We have to do it on our own. And nothing could be more glaring than those images in London this week of Starmer with Macron and the German leader.
Starting point is 00:16:47 Very much sort of this is, you know, we're going to make this happen on our own. Yes. we have to now be on our own. Yeah. After that security strategy paper and the actions of Trump of late when it comes to the European situation, the Ukraine situation for sure. Let me. There's movement here, Peter. You know, if you were to ask me, are we going to get there by next year this time?
Starting point is 00:17:21 I might say, yeah, there's a possibility that we can get there. That long, though. Yeah. You know, how long did that? It's really interesting because a lot of people look to the Korean armistice negotiations as a good model. Right. And those were still going. They got a ceasefire.
Starting point is 00:17:43 They got a ceasefire. They got a ceasefire and the war's never pursued. Right. Or nor is it ever ended. so it's an interesting way but anyway you know it's a good parallel right yeah i don't know i just i get this i get this feeling that when things start to happen they can snowball but i guess what you're warning me is they don't really start to happen this weekend this is being kind of understood privately yeah now it's public yeah that's true but i also think there's more
Starting point is 00:18:19 movement. I think there's movement. You look at the process. They're taking doc. They're doing the staff work. They're taking documents back and forth, right? So it is important to recognize that there is movement and that Putin's dial back some of his imperial dreams here. That's not nothing. And Zelensky is in a really meaningful discussion with European powers about what's possible. That's progress. Let's talk about the process a little bit because part of the process is the talks that have been going on directly over this last week or 10 days between Putin on one side
Starting point is 00:19:09 of the table and whoever his closest advisor for that day happens to be. And on the other side of the table, you've got Steve Whitkoff, who is this business leader from the states, good friend of Trump's, who has been kind of the negotiator on a number of things, including the Gaza situation, and now this as well. But beside him, you've got the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Now, here's what I find interesting. Well, I saw the images the other day of the meeting. I think that one was in Moscow. The ones that are going on today
Starting point is 00:19:51 are in Berlin. At the Adlon Hotel, which is a great historic hotel. It was bombed and almost destroyed during the Second World War at the end of the war, but it's been rebuilt. It's right within the stone's throw of the Brandenburg Gate.
Starting point is 00:20:08 It would be a great image for a signing ceremony. Anyway, I digress. The Kushner, so I see these images of these guys sitting at the table and Putin is kind of smiling and glad-handing with Witkoff and Kushner at least in the images that I saw is frozen face. He's not smiling, he's not frowsing.
Starting point is 00:20:35 He's just like eyes straightforward, not showing anything one way or the other. What do you make of this dynamic of those around the table? because these guys, Coushner and Whitkoff have obviously been in some big power plays at times around the business sector. But here they are trying to negotiate a major peace plan, as they tried to do and somewhat successfully in the Gaza situation. What do you make of it? It's really interesting because Steve Wickoff, one of Donald Trump's oldest business partners because he's had many. And they don't stay all that long.
Starting point is 00:21:20 Steve Wickoff has been a long time business partner who became friend. And Donald Trump trusts him. And also important here, Peter, which doesn't get enough attention. The two Trump sons, Eric and Don, Donald Trump, Jr. and Steve Wyckoff has two kids, two boys, also one is Zach and the other is Alex. These four are in business together, which is really, really important. This is a big part of the picture. Those families are knit together.
Starting point is 00:22:01 They overlap in the crypto businesses that they have stood up, which if you look at the balance sheets, There was, you know, there was over a billion dollars before cryptocurrency started a fall. It's probably less now. But they are deeply enmeshed in these businesses together. And, you know, those businesses travel right behind the official negotiator. So Steve Whitkoff will show up two days later. Somebody's in town to solicit investment in crypto. that puts a kind of cement
Starting point is 00:22:43 into the relationship for the two fathers because their sons are involved in these joint business activities. We've never seen anything like this, Peter. The word corruption doesn't capture it. Some of what's on these peace proposals, these various plans for a ceasefire, includes economic redevelopment in the area, is most effective in Ukraine and one assumes that Whitkoff and Kushner looking hard at those
Starting point is 00:23:19 details exactly I mean that's the other side the real estate businesses that right and those are those are in Dremash too so you know as I said I can't find a right word here exceptocracy I mean what you know what's the right word for political leaders are supposed to be arm's length, no conflict of interest, and yet the conflict of interest is so rifely built it into the process. I think there's a difference, though, between Wyckhoff and Jared Kushner. Wickev started this negotiation first, and there was no Jared Kushner there. There is, and Jared Kushner said he was going to have nothing to do with his White House.
Starting point is 00:24:10 He had enough in Trump 1.0 and he wasn't going back and his wife, he uncle wasn't going anywhere near this either. He has no position. He has no official position. He never had he doesn't have an appointment now.
Starting point is 00:24:27 When, after the Alaska Summit and after the successful Gaza negotiations, because they did get a ceasefire whatever consequences. They got a ceasefire, which Jared Kushner joined and leveraged all those relationships he had in the Gulf. That's when Donald Trump asked Jared Kushner to join Wickoff in these conversations in Moscow.
Starting point is 00:24:58 You know, if I were Steve Wickoff, my nose might be it a little bit out of joint. Here's this young son-in-law of Donald. Trump, what's he doing here? You know, he doesn't have the same relationships that he's got in the Gulf. Is he here to make sure that I report back accurately?
Starting point is 00:25:20 That could well be because Witkoff misspoke several times in the running around. Is he here to be a bad cop? Well, I'm the good cop because that's often a successful way to do things. You have warm, friendly Steve Whitkoff who says,
Starting point is 00:25:38 Putin's not a bad guy, but you have frozen face, Jared Kushner, sitting there as a visible reminder to Putin. I'm the guy, son-in-law. You're not going to fool me. And I think that's, you know, a big part of what we're seeing here. Well, I guess the thing that intrigues a lot of people who are watching this unfold is there's not just peace at hand here. There's billions of dollars of hand here. unbelievable i mean you know we don't stop over this enough peter um it is it is a level it's it turns political office it turns the presidency of the united states into a into a brokerage system
Starting point is 00:26:28 pay to play that's frankly what it is just pay to play i mean you know we saw it invidia was just allowed to sell not the best chips, not the top of the line, but the second best. In exchange, the White House gets 25% of the equity. If I had to use one phrase to describe the Trump administration, it would be pay to play. That's tariffs, that's everything. You want access to the American market? You pay.
Starting point is 00:27:03 Meanwhile, Kushner is also involved in the paramount. deal which is a huge huge deal you know it's funny because you go back some of us are old enough to think back to the 70s when jimmy carter was president and all the fuss about his brother on a peanut farm in georgia or something like it was a huge scandal and then and then and then clinton during his years it was about whitewater or some real estate development back from his governor days and and they went on months and months on end of different investigations and congressional, those, that, and the other. Meanwhile, this stuff just sort of blows by.
Starting point is 00:27:43 Yeah. Well, you know, it's really, it's shocking. I mean, it really is. You get stuff like this in Russia. Yeah. We've seen stuff like this after the Soviet Union dissolved, and you had these oligarchs come in and pick up big pieces of the economy.
Starting point is 00:28:07 and they were so personally connected to Putin. So if this goes on in the United States, it's usually the sign of decline, frankly, when you get this kind of thing. Look, I'll just say that there were some stirrings of Republican. putting a finger up. I wouldn't say more. But they did for the first time.
Starting point is 00:28:45 They did challenge the president. And it seems that ironclad grip he's had on Republicans in the House is beginning to weaken. If this were normal Congress, they would, you know,
Starting point is 00:29:00 somebody would be all over these connections that we've just talked about. Now, in a funny way for Putin, Giazl's still in the room. Key notes, that message is going right to the president. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:16 Now that's... These are his guys. These are the most trusted guys. And you're seeing this in the Middle East. It's personalized politics. The staff doesn't matter. It's, you know,
Starting point is 00:29:30 it's no wonder that some, you know, look at the situation in the United States and the power of the tech bros, who've grown in huge influence over the past half dozen years for sure. And their influence is tied in many ways directly to Trump because they're all pals of Trump. And so you have them being compared by some to the oligarchs in Russia.
Starting point is 00:29:57 But this is more, this is more. This would be like Putin's son-in-law or daughter. Yeah. Enriching themselves. We haven't, Russia has not quite equaled the performance of the Trump and the Whitcock families yet. Before we leave Trump, I should, we should mention me in his drive for the Nobel Peace Prize that he does so desperately once, he's claimed all these wars that have been settled by him, which are interesting because in some of the conflicts, the country's involved, so never heard from him. during the whole thing, but nevertheless, a couple of them kind of backfired this week.
Starting point is 00:30:42 They did. The big one that blew up was between Thailand and Cambodia. This has been going on for a long, long time. You know, they have a 500-mile border. Large chunks of it are not marked, Peter, and on that border are temples, which matter to both sides. So this is an older story. Donald Trump mediated a ceasefire, and he claimed. this is one of the
Starting point is 00:31:08 eight conf wars he stopped well last Monday it erupted again a Thai soldier was injured and it's unclear whether he was injured by a Cambodian sniper
Starting point is 00:31:24 or he was injured because the border has landmines along it which aren't supposed to be there by the way we have a landmines tree but sometimes somehow they're there Well, Thailand initiated a process of bombing, and this is by far the largest escalation in this war. It went on all week.
Starting point is 00:31:46 Donald Trump called them both on Friday, last Friday. I said, well, we have a ceasefire again, only I can do it, except Thailand said there was no ceasefire. And Cambodia said they'd like one, but they haven't heard anything about it. And the fighting is still going on. what's the other one the other one is actually one that I think Canadians know a lot about that's
Starting point is 00:32:14 in the Democratic Republic of Congo you know we go back this story why we know so much about it because it starts after the Rwandan genocide in 1994 and Romeo de lairs talked about this
Starting point is 00:32:31 over and over in Canada and use of child soldiers. The President Kagami denies this, but nobody believes them. He's organized the militia, M23, in response
Starting point is 00:32:48 to a militia that was organized on the other side of the border, but the Hutus who fled once French forces came back in, and and so M23 has now
Starting point is 00:33:04 just this last week conquered the last remaining strategic town in the area that borders Rwanda but pushes deep into into eastern Congo rich in minerals rich in strategic minerals and you had thousands and thousands of civilians fleeing again Donald Trump took a special interest in this one because he's actually interested in any country that has strategic minerals, including us, rare earths, and he's very interested in this one, and he claimed that he had solved it, and there was a signing ceremony in the White House a couple of months ago. well, M23, just this last week, captured the last remaining stronghold and are now in control of that whole really valuable strip of territory in the Eastern Congo. Okay. We're going to take a break, and then I want to come back and kind of ask you one of those year-in questions
Starting point is 00:34:22 as we have reached that moment. But we'll do that right after this. And welcome back. You're listening to the Monday episode of The Bridge. That means Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School, the University of Toronto. You're listening on Series XM, Channel 167 Canada Talks, are on your favorite podcast platform. Glad to have you with us.
Starting point is 00:34:51 All right, Janice, you know, we're our. for the next couple of weeks and we all get a well-deserved break or we say hope it's well-deserves. Your certain years. So I want to ask a couple of two questions, really, as we reach this sort of year-end point. We kind of touched on this last week,
Starting point is 00:35:13 but I want to give you another run at this at a question framed a little differently. If you compare our world today to the one we were looking at a year ago at the end of 2024. What's different? The rupture between Europe and the United States is open now. Just think back to the year, Peter, that was before J.D. Vance's speech to the Munich Security Forum,
Starting point is 00:35:48 which shocked the Europeans. the new document that we talked about. There is a sense in Europe that this year was so consequential. They've lost confidence in the United States. They will try to do what they can to keep the relationship at a low level of stability, but they've lost confidence. And so Europeans will now tell you we're on our own. And that hasn't happened since 1945.
Starting point is 00:36:20 The second thing that's new is in Europe as well. They fear war in Europe. They're worried that Europe could find itself at war. And they say the next five years, you know, the date doesn't matter because nobody knows. But that fear that there could be a war with Russia in Europe wasn't there. to this degree and I think the two are connected that they are so worried
Starting point is 00:36:54 that they may face war and the United States would stand back and not come to their assistance so in many ways this is the most sober Christmas for Europeans in living memory so where do we fit in that picture
Starting point is 00:37:10 because we've had rupture as well with the Americans I don't think Canadians feel the same, not surprisingly, you know, we're not in Europe, but I don't think we feel the same way about the potential for war, like big-time conflict with a power like Russia. But we've had a year of rupture as well, but it's impact. Look, I think it's just been a huge year for Canada, too, in the same way, It's this almost sense of disbelief and shock
Starting point is 00:37:49 that the relationship that we've had with the United States, well, look, we were not on the same side in their war of independence, frankly. There wasn't the Canada really in that way, but we had United Empire loyalists come north and in many ways, you know, push ahead the formation of Canada. But in modern history, we've been. been on the same side of the United States for the last hundred years. And I sense, and you would know this too, Peter, because you speak all over the country,
Starting point is 00:38:25 there's a sense of shock in Canada among Canadians. There's Inker. We're not going to buy. You know, I just saw the other day one of the provincial liquor commissions, but on sale, all their bourbon, which they'd taken off the shelves at the beginning of the year. but Canadians aren't traveling to the United States like they weren't. They won't go a lot. Many, many people will just not go.
Starting point is 00:38:53 And there's a sense of something really fundamental has changed for Canada. There's also, you know, some anxiety about the future. What does this mean? What does this mean for our economy? What does this mean for our jobs? How do we figure this out? It's not a fear of war like there is in Europe. But there is, oh my goodness, this is a shape-shifting moment for us as a country.
Starting point is 00:39:22 And I think that puts a premium on serious leadership, frankly. Absolutely does. I see people look at leadership a lot differently now, not just in politics, not just in government, but in, you know, in business as well. You know, I totally agree with you about the mood in Europe and how that's different than it is here. And you keep hearing it, I mean, see the British Defense Secretary again over the weekend, you know, saying we've got to get ready.
Starting point is 00:39:56 We have to get ready for war. So what are we saying when we hear that? Are we saying this is like 1938? You know, we didn't know, it's interesting. I was talking over the weekend to a group of really old diplomatic hands in Canada. You know, formers. We call them former, former ambassador to, former this, former that. Farmers is the slang we, the youths, right?
Starting point is 00:40:28 You're the only one who's not a former. The rest of us are, geez. Yeah, one of them said that to me. Exactly. But we said, what is this? look like. And so people said, well, is it the 70s, you know,
Starting point is 00:40:46 with stagnating economies and no growth and Nicholas Jimmy Carter or that's how Americans felt. No, no, it's bigger than that, they all said. And then we went, okay, is it the
Starting point is 00:41:01 60s when the United States was on fire? We forget that cities were burning. Demonstrators were shot in the streets. no no that's not it because that was actually restricted to the United States and then we went around and we we said here's one possible story and it's only possible and it's not no predictions here just a possibility that this time next year there could be a prime minister in the UK there could be a prime minister in the UK there could be a prime minister or a president rather
Starting point is 00:41:42 Marine Le Pen or somebody that she appoints because they France is forbidden her to run the AFD, the alternatives for Georgetown and all of these right-wing nationalist parties far-right nationalist parties could be surging. In Germany it's a shaky coalition that Friedrich Merritt has stood up in Germany. Victor Orban survives, and so we could be looking at a world in which the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary are all ruled by far right-wing nationalist movement.
Starting point is 00:42:24 So people said, well, that's got a whiff of the 30s. It's not the same, but it's got a whiff of the 30s. So we haven't thought that the 30s are even possible. And I'm not saying likely or that this will happen, but we haven't thought that the 30s are possible since 1945. And now we'd be hard pressed to say it's not possible. Happy holidays. Yes.
Starting point is 00:42:58 Well, anyway, they couldn't stand it either, the farmers, right? So they all went to a very optimistic discussion. of how the United States is going to muddle its way through this and all the checks and balances that are just beginning to poke there, you know, through the surface and the fact that Americans are not, and I think this too, in many ways, Peter, Americans are not compliant people.
Starting point is 00:43:26 That's good. You know, we're much more differential. A policeman puts up his hand, we stop. They don't do that in the United States. States. They don't line up politely. They're not deferential to authority. And that when push comes to shows, Americans will not go along. And there will be a pushback. And that, you know, America is the United States is so important. It tips the balance on the scales in all of these possible futures. It really does. Well, that does give us some hope. You know, Margaret Atwood, who says many smart things. She really does.
Starting point is 00:44:12 And she said, boy, it's stupid to hate Americans. We have a huge problem with this administration. But we have many, many Americans who are still our close friends. And I think that's such an important decision for Europe to remember and for us to remember. The story's not over. No, the story's not over, and it is really important for us to remember that fact. She's absolutely right about that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:41 It's just that it's really hard to right now. It is. You know, when you, you know, reasonable people who are so upset. Angry is the right word. Okay, listen. So, Merry Christmas, Peter. Yes. Happy holidays.
Starting point is 00:45:01 Happy funna, Thanksgiving. everyone. Let's hope to write, we get the right story next year, right? Absolutely. It's still to be written. It is. You take a good break and we'll talk in early January. Great. There she is with her last 2025 Monday with us here on the bridge, Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School at the University of Toronto. We're lucky to have her with us each Monday and we look forward to joining up here. again in about two weeks time at the
Starting point is 00:45:36 I think it's January 5th whatever the Monday is around there okay that's going to do it for this this day coming up tomorrow is the Raj and Rousseau reporter's notebook lots to talk about in Ottawa even though the place is kind of shut down I guess the Senate is still open for a little bit
Starting point is 00:45:56 but the House of Commons has shut down with all its maneuverings at the end of last week so obviously we'll talk to Rob Russo and Elthea Raj about that on Reporter's Notebook tomorrow. Wednesday, I haven't decided yet. Thursday is your turn. You heard the question earlier in the program today. If you didn't, rewind and get to it because it's an opportunity for you to tell us about,
Starting point is 00:46:24 I don't know, the story that made you happiest over the year. What was the news event that was a happy event for you to watch? or listen to or read about or was it just simply a question of what made last year happy for you personally what was the moment that made you happy um so it's a possibility on a number of different answers uh for that question so go for it and uh you know the rules 75 words or fewer is the most important one um that's going to do it for today i'm peter manns Thanks so much for listening and look forward to talking to you again in less than 24 hours with Raj and Rousseau on The Reporter's Notebook. Until then, bye for now.

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