The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - LOCKDOWN

Episode Date: April 1, 2021

Does lockdown really mean lockdown?  Case numbers, hospitalizations and ICU stays are all up in many parts of the country.  Can partial lockdowns make a difference in the race between vaccines and new cases?

Hello there, Peter Mansbridge here with the latest episode of The Bridge. We are just moments away from talk about lockdown. And hello again, Peter Mansbridge here, and yeah, lockdowns, shutdowns, come the word of the day yesterday, in a number of parts of the country, Quebec, Ontario, BC, and you for weeks, doctors and hospitals have been saying, especially in Ontario, they've been saying, hey, you've got to pull back. You opened up way too soon. This is causing all kinds of problems.

Hospitals are getting full. ICUs are getting full. Case loads are going up. And it was like the premier was too busy talking about Justin Trudeau and vaccines and whether or not he was getting enough. And that whole story seems to change depending on who you listen to about vaccines. Anyway, yesterday, as I said in a number of provinces,

but in Ontario, the premier announced, he didn't say lockdown or shutdown, he introduced a new word, a new aggressive word, and we're going to fix this, we're going to pull the emergency brake, because that's what we do,

we pull the emergency brake. I've always thought the emergency brake was one of those things you use to make sure your car doesn't roll down the hill when you're parking, you know, kind of an angle on a hill. I don't know that anybody actually pulls the emergency brake when they're driving. Maybe they do. Maybe if they really, really see an emergency, they pull it. Anyway, he's pulling the emergency brake because all those things are happening.

Caseloads have gone up. ICUs are filled up. Hospitals are overflowing. So he's going to pull the emergency brake. So what does that mean? Well, apparently not a heck of a lot. I mean, we use this term lockdown, shutdown, and now emergency brake. We use these all the time as if something's really going to change in terms of how we live, what's open and what's closed.

Well, you know, I looked at the list today. It doesn't really look that different. A couple of things here and there. Hair salons, which I think were already closed anyway. In-restaurant dining, which I we're already closed in most places anyway. But, you know, other things are still wide open. You know, no problem. Including schools, in spite of teachers, some of them anyway,

and we've heard them on this program, saying, hey, come on, this is a problem. We have a teacher shortage now. Supply teachers won't come in, or many of them won't come in. Some students are getting sick. Some students are getting sick. Some teachers are getting sick. But that's not going to change, not in the short term. And the big box stores where you actually see people congregating,

they're staying open, you know, reduced capacity, but still they're open, where the little guy, the small business person, he or she can't open because they're in lockdown. They've had the emergency brake pulled on them. I don't know. If I sound cynical, it's probably because I am. I just don't get it. You know, if you're going to use that word,

then lock it down. Lock everything down. If that's what you believe is the right thing to do. And I appreciate there's a debate about that. But you can't argue with the numbers. We are in, certainly this part of the country, we are in third wave territory. We're there.

Do we have vaccines? Absolutely. We have lots of vaccines, way more than we're promised, if you believe the Fed's numbers. If you believe the province's numbers, then you're kind of wondering about who's doing what. But, you know, I drove past in here in Little Stratford in the Rotary Complex, the big hockey rink, yesterday,

and there was a huge lineup. They're doing 1,500 a day. We're just a small town in the middle of a big health district. So, you know, I appreciate that there are a lot more people than just live in Stratford who are getting vaccinated and are signing up and getting their bookings and their appointments to come in.

But it's happening. You know, they're going through the process. So vaccines are happening, but the variants are happening too, apparently. And it's a race between these two things. And if the variants get ahead of the vaccines, it's a big problem. And so that's why hospitals and doctors and nurses are saying, please, if you're going to do a

lockdown, do a real lockdown. Because we're at a desperate point here right now. It's not summer, it's spring. It's not hot. There are days where it's warm, but there are also days where it's cold and it's still below zero in many parts of the country. So I'm ranting.

It's Thursday. It's the last day of the week for the bridge, because tomorrow, being Good Friday, we're taking the day off. We're going to have a holiday. Spend time with family. Immediate family. Family that you can be close with. So what do we normally do on Thursday? What we normally do on Thursday is

Potpourri Day. And you know, I've got a stack. I wish you could see it. I have a stack of stories. Lots of them. 30, 40 stories that I haven't got to in the last few weeks. And today we'll, you know, we'll do a short crunch on some of those and pass them along because they're all interesting in their own special way. I referred to this a number of times over the last year, and that is the question of how did this even start? Now, we all agree that it started in Wuhan, China. Even the Chinese agree with that assessment.

But that's one thing to agree to. The harder point is, okay, in Wuhan, how did it start? And there are different theories. And one of those theories that there was an accident in a lab in Wuhan that was studying viruses. And somehow this new virus escaped from that lab. And away it went on its path of destruction around the world. That's been one theory. The other theory is that it was as a result

of the live food market in Wuhan with an infected bat that was then transferred from animal to human. And away it went around the world. Well, there have been a number of studies, including one by the WHO, the World Health Organization. And it, you know, there have been a number of leaks about that report in the last week or so.

But finally, this week, just in the last day or so, they released their report on what happened. 17 experts, long-standing leaders from the field, including epidemiology, public health, clinical medicine, veterinary medicine, infectious disease, law, food security, biosafety, biosecurity. Lots of experts in government.

They've all been reviewing this study from the WHO. One of them from Georgetown University, Matthew Kavanaugh, says the report deepened the understanding of the virus's origins, but more information was needed. He concluded that it's clear that the Chinese government has not provided all the data needed, and until they do, firmer conclusions will be difficult. That's what he said to the Associated Press. Well, what did the WHO actually conclude?

Once again, from AP, a joint World Health Organization China study on the origins of COVID-19 says the transmission of the virus from bats to humans through another animal is the most likely scenario and that a lab leak is extremely unlikely. The findings offer little new insight into how the virus first emerged and leave many questions unanswered. The team proposed further research in every area except the lab leak hypothesis, a speculative theory that was promoted by Donald Trump, among others.

It also said that the role played by a seafood market where human cases were first identified was uncertain. That's the market in Wuhan. Dr. Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases expert, said he would like to see the report's raw information first before deciding about its credibility. Okay, I'm not going to dwell on this, but you get the headlines from it. Let me just read this one little bit about this. This issue of lab leaks, because, you know, there are a lot of conspiracy theories about the lab

leaks pushed by the right-wing media, pushed by Donald Trump in the United States. The report says that such lab accidents are rare, that the labs in Wuhan were well managed, and there is no record of viruses closely related to the coronavirus in any lab before December of 2019. That has been, you know, one of the areas of argument about how long the Chinese had this virus under study in labs in Wuhan. The WHO says they have no evidence to suggest that it was in any lab before December of 2019. And it was fairly soon after that

that the Chinese advised the rest of the world that there was a problem. The report is based largely on a visit by a WHO team of international experts to Wuhan. The mission was never meant to identify the exact natural source of the virus. That could take years. For instance, listen to this. For instance, more than 40 years of study has still failed to pinpoint the exact species of bat that are the natural reservoir of Ebola.

Forty years later, they still don't know. In the draft of the WHO report, the one that AP saw just before it was released, the researchers listed four scenarios. Topping the list was transmission from bats through another animal, which they said was likely to very likely. Okay, likely to very likely. They evaluated direct spread from bats to human

as just likely, and said that spread to humans from the packaging of cold chain food products was possible, but not likely. And there has been some discussion about that, about frozen or near frozen products coming out of that Wuhan area could have been contaminated in the packaging of that food, and that it took off around the world.

So those are the main areas. The last possibility was previously dismissed by the WHO and by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but researchers on this mission have taken it up again, further raising questions about the politicization of the study since China has long pushed the theory. While it's possible an infected animal contaminated packaging that was then brought to Wuhan and infected humans,

the report said the probability is very low. So that is the latest, the most up-to-date look at how did this whole thing start? And what do you conclude from listening to that? They still don't know. And you know what? They may not know for decades of how it started. Different people will have different theories but you know what they

don't know okay switching to another topic that we've had fun with over the last year that's as a result it's hard to say fun but as a result of the pandemic we've talked a lot about exercise and especially the whole issue about steps and when I first did this a year ago in the first, you know, opening days really of the crisis, I talked about 4,000 steps a day. That was the study that somebody had done that suggested you do 4,000 steps a day and you're going to be in good shape. And so that's what I started doing in the backyard. And I raised it from 4,000 to 5,000 to 6,000.

And then a couple of weeks ago, I read the results of a study that I think was in the New York Times that said, okay, we've studied all the step business and some people are doing four, some people doing six, some people are doing 10. What is the right amount? At what point is there no extra benefit from going beyond that? Not saying you shouldn't go beyond that, but just saying that there's a benefit reached

at a certain point. And that study concluded 7,500 steps a day was the optimum figure, was the figure you want to hit for sure. And, oh, man, I got letters from people saying, now that's crazy, you've got to do more than that, and I do 10, 12, 24. I do lots of steps.

Okay, good for you. I'm proud of you. You're not going to get hurt by doing more. The issue is whether it's any extra benefit by doing more. Anyway, I have a new one today. This one's from Reader's Digest. They're saying, okay, if you do 10,000 steps a day, here are a number of things that are going to benefit your body by doing that. Now, most of these are kind of basic.

They're kind of expected. But nevertheless, they're good to know. It's good to know this is happening for you if you're doing steps. Walking 10,000 steps a day will boost your heart health. I kind of figure that. Regular physical activity helps increase the amount of oxygenated blood being sent to your muscles. The fitter you are, the more easily this happens.

Okay, boosting your heart health. Strengthening your lungs. Moving each day helps strengthen your lungs and surrounding muscles. As the rate and volume of oxygen you inhale goes up, so does your body's ability to use it efficiently. A measurement referred to as your VO2 max. The fitter you get, the higher your VO2 max. Okay, that makes sense. I like this one. Walking 10,000 steps a day improves your concentration.

Physical activity boosts the release of feel-good hormones like endorphins and also increases blood flow to the brain which results in improved cognitive function. Not only do you feel less stressed and less anxious when you regularly move, but you're also working towards improving your creativity. That's why I always take a walk before the podcast, so I can be creative. Now, sometimes the walk is just from my coffee machine to my little studio. But nevertheless, I love that word, nevertheless.

That's a great story about Yankee Stadium and the word nevertheless. But let's see, how can I tell that story without crossing the boundaries that we've... Well, I can try telling it. You know the announcer at Yankee Stadium where he used to be famous, right? And now, now, now, now, now, off the bat, bat, bat, bat, number seven, seven, seven, seven, now. Up the bat, bat, bat, bat. Number seven, seven, seven, seven.

Mickey, Mickey Mantle, Mantle. Anyway, one day the announcer was doing his thing about one of the players. And in the pause after he'd said the player's name and number, somebody yelled an obscenity from the crowd, which falls silent when the announcer is introducing somebody.

I mean, it's part of the whole mystique about the game. And somebody yelled out, you know, Mickey Mantle sucks! But it was a little stronger word than that. So there's this pause, and the announcer comes on. Nevertheless, last, last, last, last.

That's my favorite nevertheless story. Okay, moving on to the more things that this does for your body, the 10,000 steps a day. It strengthens your bones. Physical activity, particularly weight-bearing exercises, places extra stress on your bones, which helps improve their density and lowers your risk for osteoporosis later in life.

Walking and, better yet, running are great places to start. Can we just focus on walking? Walking 10,000 steps a day builds muscle. Okay, that's kind of obvious, right? You can see it in your legs, right? It helps stabilize your blood sugar. When you're physically active, your muscles use more of the glucose in your bloodstream. Activity also helps the insulin in your body work more efficiently.

Two more. It can help lower blood pressure. Now, there's a good reason. For those of us who fight high blood pressure, physical activity is important for preventing and managing high blood pressure. Getting in your daily steps can help reduce the stiffness of your vessels, allowing blood to flow more freely. And finally, and once again, most of these of you kind of sat there and thought,

well, I wonder what this would do for me 10,000 steps a day, and you wrote your own list. You'd probably come up with most of what's on this list. The last one is it improves flexibility. Physical activity helps improve your flexibility, which in turn helps improve posture, reduces risk for injury, and also decreases the number of aches and pains you feel during the day. Like that? Thank you to Reader's Digest, who got all those pointers from, guess where?

We've talked about these guys in the last week. Participaction. Okay, on Potpourri Day, we have more. We have more. And that more is coming up after this. Well, if I'm not talking about 10,000 steps a day, or 4,000 steps a day, or 7,500 steps a day, you know that one area that I always like to talk about, in some fashion, 10,000 steps a day or 4,000 steps a day or 7,500 steps a day, you know that one area that I always like to talk about in some fashion is airlines, airports, airplanes.

I really miss that part of my life, right? I haven't been on a plane in more than a year now. And I haven't been able to say that since I was two years old. Really miss airlines. I worked for an airline. I tried to be a pilot. So it's always been like part of me, the airline business. And you've heard me talk about it different ways.

And the airline story has been a big part of the story for the last year. Because hundreds of millions of billions of dollars have been lost as a result of the pandemic in the airline industry alone. Jobs lost, revenue lost, passengers disappearing, and it's all had this huge impact. So there are some new calculations out there. The Canadian press reports now that, and that's just from this week. Canada's largest airport, Pearson Airport, Toronto, lost $383 million last year as the number of

passengers plunged nearly 74% from 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Greater Toronto Airport's Authority, that's who controls Pearson Airport, says its net loss compared with a $139.8 million profit in 2019 as revenues decreased nearly by half to $823 million from $1.5 billion a year earlier. Now, last year in 2020, how many passengers do you think passed through Pearson Airport?

This is a year where things are shut down. 13 million. That's still a heck of a lot of passengers. 13 million passengers passed through Pearson Airport in 2020, including 5.5 million on domestic flights and 7.8 million for international service. So if 13 million sounds like a lot, and it is, that's obviously a lot of people,

it's nothing compared with what the year before had been which was a more normal year 50.5 million the airport responded to the pandemic by cutting capital spending by $265 million, temporarily closing more than 40% of its terminal facilities, eliminating about 500 positions last summer, which represented more than a quarter of the workforce at Pearson. Things have started to pick up, but it's going to be slow. And the latest shutdowns,

lockdowns, emergency brake pulling will obviously have their impact on those who want to even consider traveling, if they could. But everyone is advising don't travel, whether it's by plane or car or whatever. Stay at home for this period.

Here's another sign, though, that things are getting to the point where air travel is going to start being okay again. If this summer is going to be a new, bright time for all of us, then obviously a lot of travel will start to happen. And one of the hints that it might is coming from Delta Airlines, an American air carrier, because they were kind of the last in North America.

They have been the last in North America to eliminate the middle seat from bookings. So if you were traveling on Delta, you had a choice of a window or an aisle, middle seat would remain empty. That was a popular feature for a lot of travelers. And there was rare circumstances where planes were full. And there were those circumstances because don't forget the number of flights was reduced considerably,

and therefore the few flights that did operate tended to be relatively crowded. Anyway, they're going to start selling middle seats again, and one of the reasons they're doing that is they did a survey of those who flew Delta in 2019 and found that nearly 65% of them expected to have received at least one dose of a vaccine by May 1st, which has given the airline the assurance to offer customers the ability to choose any seat on our aircraft. I'd be surprised if people actually chose a middle seat. Like, hey, I want a middle seat. I want to be crushed by two unknown people on either side of me.

But I guess if it's a middle seat or no travel, because the plane's full, then I guess you're kind of left with the middle seat. So that's your news from Delta Airlines. As numbers are starting to go up, just as caseloads are going up, both in Canada and the States, the numbers of those traveling are going up.

One and a half million were screened last Sunday in the United States. That's the busiest day at airports since the pandemic began more than a year ago. And here's two other things about Delta. Starting April 14th, so another two weeks, the airline plans to bring back soft drinks, cocktails, and snacks on flights within the United States and to nearby international destinations. That's us. In June, it plans to start offering hot food in premium classes

on some coast-to-coast flights. Here's the last thing for today's potpourri. And the last thing for this week as we get ready to take a break. For one day, anyway. Guess we'll be back on Monday. Have you heard of the AS-3? It's a type of aircraft. Actually sounds more like a rocket ship.

But it would be used for commercial airline purposes. Well, a company called Aerion has a partnership with NASA, and they are building this plane, the AS-3. That's part of their AS series of aircraft. They have a smaller one called the AS-2, which is kind of like one of those small private commercial jets. But these are high-intensity superflight aircraft. The AS-3, which is going to be built for 50 passengers, is going to travel at Mach 4,

four times the speed of sound. You know what that means? You take an AS3 from, say, New York to London. It's going to get you there in less than an hour. Less than an hour. Less than an hour. I mean I remember the Concorde and what it you know it took like two and a half hours and if you go to even today if you go to Heathrow Airport you'll see a Concorde they were shut down after that terrible accident in Paris it was a joint french english produced aircraft but it flew

at uh more than mach one so it flew at more than the speed of sound uh it wasn't the most comfortable aircraft in the world i've been on one not flying but just sort of to see what it was like inside um and you were kind of cramped. They tried to make that up in other ways in terms of the service on board. But it was also very fast. You could go from New York to London for dinner. No problem. You could go from London to New York

for breakfast or lunch. Fast plane. But we haven't had that kind of speed in a commercial airliner since the Concorde. Now you're going to get it and more with the AS3. No date on when this could be in service and begin production next year. So I imagine we're a couple of years away from that. They say the AS3 forms the next step in our long-term technology roadmap.

And will bring Aerion's high mock flight capability to a broader audience. Look forward to seeing that. I'll be out there at the airport watching those take off. All right. Coming to the end of our Thursday edition, an episode of The Bridge. Hope you've enjoyed it. Hope you've learned a few things in all this. And most of all, I hope you are able to put together a weekend that you find enjoyable. We are

still in a very difficult stage of this. I don't need to tell you that. I also don't need to tell you what you need to do in focusing forward. This is going to end. It's going to end, in my view, it will end. We'll be over the major hump of this, this year. Hopefully we'll have a kind of summer that we can enjoy with some degree of friends and family. And then we will slowly, but efficiently, I hope, move forward to a world in which we're going to feel a lot more at peace.

Keep in mind, the terrible plague of 100 years ago, the pandemic that swept the world, they didn't have vaccines back then. They only had masks like we do now. And the death toll was much greater than what we're witnessing here. But it was the last serious pandemic that in any way equals this. They got through it. And they got through it

in less than two years. We have much better tools to fight this. So surely we're going to get through it in less than two years. Hopefully considerably less than two years. Anyway considerably less than two years. Anyway, that's just my theory.

That's it for this day and this week on The Bridge. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening. We'll talk to you again on Monday.