The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - "Not Ripe For Resolution Right Now." Ukraine Could Go On For Months.

Episode Date: May 2, 2022

Missing the forest for the trees.  It's a common mistake we all make when looking at big issues and right now there's little bigger than Ukraine.  So what's going on in the background while we are focused on refugees and fighting in the foreground? That's the question today and Dr Janice Stein, the internationally respected Canadian foreign affairs analyst is our guest.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. Ukraine. What's really going on behind the scenes on the story we of the ocean, I guess you could say. Back in Stratford, Ontario, after almost a month on the other side of the ocean, enjoying the delights of the beautiful country of Scotland. But today we're focused on other issues, namely Ukraine, and trying to get a sense of while we're focused on the fighting, what we haven't been focused on is what's going on in the background between Ukraine and Russia,

and with the involvement of the United States and Canada and many, many other countries. So we're going to talk about that in a moment. But I want to start on something else. I got back on Friday. I was in Ottawa on Saturday and Sunday because I had to give a speech. I had a speech on Saturday night at the Canadian War Museum. A great group of people who I was speaking with enjoyed the time with them immensely.

It was an interesting city to be in over the weekend because, of course, there was another protest. A group of motorcyclists and others who had come to Ottawa to protest. I'm not quite sure what. I mean, it had something to do with vaccine mandates at some times. At other times, it was, you know, the trashing of Justin Trudeau, the kind of things that you see the protesters earlier this year do on Parliament Hill. But this was pretty orderly and fairly peaceful. Shouts of freedom ringing out in different parts of the nation's capital. Now, I guess the juxtaposition of being at the

Canadian War Museum while this was going on, you know, outside a couple of blocks away. It was rather interesting. Listen, I have an agreement with the fact that people have the right to protest in this country, and it's a Canadian thing. We do it a lot, and we do it on many different important issues, and it's had success over time. What puzzles me is when it's unclear just what exactly the protest is about. And that happened again this weekend.

And you saw journalists going up to some of the protesters and ask them, why are you here? What are you trying to achieve? And the message was unclear. And it was kind of muddled. But nevertheless, they have every right to protest, and I don't disagree with that. As long as it's peaceful, it doesn't create havoc of any kind,

especially for the community in which they're holding the protest. But I did find it ironic. Standing in the Canadian War Museum, which is part of our history, a clear explanation of what as a country we've done in the past in terms of conflict, where we've been peacekeepers, where we've been combatants. And the walls literally, and the floors and the rooms are literally soaked in that history. And I did find it, I found it ironic in a sense that these people were protesting just down the street and yelling freedom about whatever it was they were yelling it about. But let's say vaccine mandates.

And they were saying they weren't free and they wanted freedom. Because many of them had traveled to Ottawa, I don't know how many went to the Canadian War Museum as part of their weekend in Ottawa. But I hope some of them did. Because if they did, they would see a clear explanation of what freedom really means. What happens when you're confronted with a lack of freedom and how you achieve that and what it means and how successful Canada's positions in the past on these conflicts that were about freedom, how successful they were for generations like ours, who've been able to live in a country that's free.

Anyway, I certainly thought of that more than a few times over this weekend. Now, the struggle for freedom, real, honest, true freedom that's taking place in Ukraine has been at times brutal, many times brutal over these last couple of months. And we've witnessed it in a fashion that is so upfront, close and personal that it's almost unlike anything else we've ever witnessed. In an age of access, we're seeing things that we wish in some cases we could unsee, but they bring home the story from up close. What I wanted to get at today, for a few minutes anyway,

is to try and understand that while we do see what's going on in front of us, sometimes we don't see what's going on in the background. So that's what I wanted to get at. Now, over the course of these last couple of months, we have talked to people in Ukraine. We've talked to journalists covering the story in Ukraine. We have talked to people suffering from the story in Ukraine. We have talked to experts in London, Washington, New York, about the situation in Ukraine and trying to understand some of the

issues and some of the brilliant journalism that we've seen from our friend Brian Stewart, the former war correspondent, former foreign correspondent. I always find it odd saying former because he's still doing his thing. He's still doing his job. And part of his job has been to keep our eyes wide open on what we are seeing. But I wanted, as I said, to try and get behind it all. And, you know, where there are some great voices around the world, we have some pretty good voices right here in Canada.

And as you well know, one of my favorites is the founding director of the Munk School at the University of Toronto, Janet Stein, Dr. Stein. She's well regarded not only in our country, but elsewhere as well. She's often called upon for panels in universities around the world to talk about various events. She's an expert in foreign policy, foreign affairs. She's an expert in negotiation theory, they call it. And so she's been pretty busy over these last couple of months in terms of those kind of conversations that are being held with government officials and various people in different parts of our country and others. So I wanted to talk to Dr. Stein about what she's seeing and what she's sensing is happening behind the scenes on this story that has so riveted the attention of people around the world.

So when we come back, Dr. Janice Stein will be with us. Quick pause, then we'll begin that conversation. And welcome back. You're listening to The Bridge here on SiriusXM, Channel 167, Canada Talks, and on your favorite podcast platform, wherever that may be. As promised, we're going to talk to Dr. Janice Stein now. So let's get right to it.

So Janice, I think we all have a sense from watching, you know, kind of upfront what's happening. We see it on the nightly news. We read it in the newspapers. But that's what we see. What's going on in the background on this story? I think the biggest change is that Ukraine and the coalition led by the United States that really is so important in providing military support has changed their war aims. They're escalating what they hope to achieve now. For the first phase, it was all about

the Ukrainian government has to survive. Zelensky has to survive. There were very low expectations. As they watched the performance on the battlefield and saw what that airlift of weapons could do, they've changed their analysis now. They feel that Ukraine has the momentum, that it may be possible to inflict a defeat on Russia. And they have now no interest whatsoever

in any kind of negotiation. They want this to go ahead on the battlefield. And, you know, the Secretary of Defense, when he was in Kiev, fundamentally said it. We want to make sure that we're going to weaken Russia to the point where they can't do this again. So is that what's happening when we see the parade? You mentioned Austin going on the u.s defense secretary lincoln was in last week over this weekend uh you know pelosi was in with a

congressional delegation democratic congressional delegation is that's what is that what's happening is that what they're trying to i don't know whether they need to stiffen the spine of the Salon Steering crowd. It's pretty stiff as it is, but they're encouraging him to keep fighting. There's no question that that is what's happening. And it's a

really risky game. Because let me stand back for one second and say this this is going to have to end with a negotiated

settlement, it has to and there's no conceivable security arrangement in Europe that will not have to include Russia Russia is too important it's not a global power anymore security arrangement in Europe that will not have to include Russia. Russia is too important.

It's not a global power anymore. Those days are over. But it is a force in Central and Eastern Europe. And if you want any kind of stability in that part of the world, Russia will have to be part of that. But in order to get there, both sides have to be convinced there's no more to get on the battlefield. Ukraine in the first two weeks was there. They were asking for a cease fire over and over and over again. They're not there anymore. They think that they now are in a position, and when you look at the amount

of military equipment that is flooding in Peter, and more is coming in the foreseeable future, they think they can make some real gains on the battlefield. They can push the hope, is to push the Russians back in Donetsk and Luhansk, and more important, to prevent the capture of anything else in the south, to save Odessa, to make sure that they have some access to the sea. And they're going to fight for that now. Russia missed the opportunity that it had in those first few weeks when the Ukrainians were really on their back foot to get the ceasefire. It's not

there anymore now. Yeah, they're on the Ukrainians are on the back foot and the West was sort of assuming that they were going to stumble and the Russians were going to basically move in. Just astonishing. Assuming that they were going to stumble and the Russians were going to basically move in. Oh, it was just astonishing. It's really astonishing. This is one of those rare times when U.S. intelligence got everything right with respect to Russian intentions.

And frankly, there's no way they did that without human intelligence. This was not signals intelligence. They were listening to chatter which gave them very detailed information about Russian planning, which must be, by the way, very worrying to the Kremlin.

Yeah, it may have been more than just listening to chatter. They may have been directly receiving chatter. Yes, have been directly receiving chatter. Yes, yes, that's right. That's right. But here's my... But what they got wrong, and Averill Haynes, the National Director of Intelligence, said that two days ago, they got the capabilities wrong. They overestimated Russian military capabilities.

Not the first time that that's happened and badly underestimated what the Ukrainians could do with even the limited amount of stuff going in in those first few days. Here's where I find the situation puzzling. As you mentioned a few minutes ago, there are billions of dollars and equipment going into Ukraine from the West, primarily from the United States. But, you know, we've got a few bucks in there, too,

in terms of Canada. But you have all this stuff moving in, and the Russians must be, you know, at some point the Russians must say, okay, this is now a war with NATO. They may not be on the battlefield with troops whole issue about can this go into world war three can this become a war between russia and nato so we're we're advancing on a you know uh right at the edge here you're absolutely right Because if you look at the kind of equipment that is going into Ukraine, look at that, at the request that Biden has made.

The largest request we've ever seen, and it's going to go through Congress, and it's going to supply equipment to the Ukrainians right up to the end of September, which tells you something about their timeline. They don't think this is going to be over in the near future. But we started with ammunitions and night goggles and helmets and flak jackets.

We're now up to artillery, which they can't reach over the border into Russia, but we're very close. Armored cars. And today it sounds like Slovakia and Poland are going to cooperate so that Soviet MiG fighters, old MiG fighters, can be transferred to the Ukrainian Air Force,

which Biden originally opposed. So we're seeing an increase in the quality of equipment that is going into Ukraine. So we're right on the edge. And at some point, it's entirely possible that the Russians reach the conclusion. You just said, and they say we are at war with NATO. Biden's moved up to this line, but up to this line, and he says, no, we're not a co-combatant.

He says, our pilots are not flying. Our forces are not there. Our airplanes are not enforcing, you know, we have almost no room there, Peter, until this becomes, in fact, a war between Russia and NATO. Now, it's not World War III. The reason I say this,

China and India, three billion people together, are on the fence here, as are the Brazilians, the Mexicans, the Emiratis. This could be a European-wide war, but not World War III. They all start as European wars, Janice. They all, yeah.

That's a really interesting question, eh? Because when Europe was at the center of the universe, it mattered that they started in Europe. It doesn't matter in the same way. That's a bigger question to talk about. You say that eventually this has to end in a negotiated settlement, which implies when you say eventually that when we keep hearing that there are talks going on, you know, every day or every second day between the Russians and the Ukrainians,

you're implying that these, whatever talks there are, don't mean anything at this point. Well, you know, those talks meant a great deal to the Ukrainians for those first two or three weeks. They took them very seriously. Zelensky sent his chief, you know, the chief of staff who runs his office, his personal representative to those talks. And they were desperate for ceasefire. They're focused now on humanitarian issues, like how do we get those thousand people out of Mariupol who are holed up in the plant, many of them wounded,

how do we save their lives? So they're focused on those kinds of issues. But Zelensky has definitely pulled back. And today, the chief of staff in an interview said explicitly three things, independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Well, I could almost have been Xi Jinping using those words. It's the same kind of words that

he uses. But territorial integrity means we are not going to sign away the Crimea. And until the Ukrainians are ready to do that, there's actually no negotiated settlement here, Peter. always a risk you know

with an ally always a risk we've seen this forever that way the big powers aren't the smaller ones the smaller ones sipping their back and they're the ones with the resolve to fight on because it matters most to them it's it seems or at least it seemed there for a while, when the talks looked like they might be heading somewhere, that the Ukrainian, Zelensky in particular, was prepared to say, you know what, let's move Crimea to the sidelines. Let's not talk about that for 10 years.

Let's deal with everything else but Crimea. Which seemed to be an indication in some fashion that they're willing to let that go. Yeah. And then he made a really interesting statement, and there's no Canadian who doesn't recognize, doesn't hear the statement the way I'm sure I heard it and you heard it, which he said, well when if we reach any kind of agreement we need to

put it to a referendum oh yeah we've been there done that one right and why is that by the way in the Ukrainian case but would that be a would that be a referendum just in Crimea

or would it be a referendum just in Crimea? Or would it be a Ukraine-wide referendum? Because there's a big difference there. A Ukraine-wide referendum, right? Because he probably could not survive. He probably could. And even if he signed away those two eastern provinces, he has the outrage in Ukraine legitimately against what the Russians are doing to them grows and hatred actually grows inside Ukraine. He's right as a politician that he would not survive and his government would not survive if he made that kind of agreement.

And once you get into that zone, it's really hard. And his government would not survive if he made that kind of agreement. And once you get into that zone, it's really hard. Now, what could force them back to the negotiating table? Because that's what it would take now. Two things. One, that Russia does better in the ground war than all the early indications are. that they're not doing well, frankly, and that this is going to be much tougher for the Russians than they thought. And then the second and really awful prospect

is that the artillery and the bombing of the cities continues. And the Ukrainian cities are level and the casualties amount to such a point where there's enough pressure on Zelensky and the government that they say stop. We're willing to talk. So either of those is pretty brutal. One of the many areas in which you're recognized,

not only in this country, but internationally, is negotiation theory. Yeah. So what is the theory of negotiation at this point on this story? Well, you know, it's actually quite useful, Peter, because it's that that's in the back of my head that just led me to say all the things that I said. So negotiation is dance too. But both partners have to want to dance at the same time. So if you don't get that in the Middle East, which I worked for so many years, is the best example of that. We could never get the parties to the table at the same time.

Different sides would want to come, but it wasn't synchronized. And we've just seen this in Ukraine since February. Zelensky and the government wanted to come desperately in those first three weeks. As their confidence grew, they lost interest. So it doesn't matter really now if Putin were interested. They're not interested. And also

we have no evidence that Putin's interested right now because he too hopes that he's going to make games especially before May the 9th, which is the commemoration of the great victory that Russia, Harvard, Germany in Victory Day in World War II. So right now, neither of them want to dance.

And the United States is not interested because they think the Ukrainians are going to make gains. So there is no point for any mediator. You know, this is a professional expression that this one is not ripe for resolution right now. And good mediators have an instinct. You don't go in if you don't think that there's any interest. On the part of both sides, there's no evidence now there's any interest last question at this point in this story can you see any way that putin can survive oh yeah um for sure um i can even if there is a terrible defeat in Ukraine

by which I mean not only that he doesn't make the gains he wants but it's entirely conceivable he could be pushed back along that 300 you know kilometer line

that's entirely possible that he could be pushed back because wow, this is a really bad performance by the Russian army, really astonishingly bad. But when he exercises really tight control of the media, what's getting through

as you know are the stories to the families of Russian soldiers who are killed or imprisoned, that's getting through as you know are the stories to the families of russian soldiers who are killed or in prison that's getting through but there's public opinion polls that are reliable coming out of russia and there's strong support for the war and when austin says we want to weaken russia that strengthens the support for him it always does at the public level. Secondly, where is this going to come from? A removal from office. It's really interesting because we think back to Nikita Khrushchev. Right after the Cuban

Missile Crisis, two years later, he was removed. But there were functioning political institutions in communist Russia. There was a functioning Politburo and a Central Committee. Under Putin, most of those have frankly been so laid to waste. So where's this going to come from? It can only come

from two places. It can come from the army and it can come from the security services. Wow. He's one of them in the security services. He's one of them in the security services. I think it would be very hard to see a crew and they don't control the

forces, so it's not going to come from the security services. It's only one place this can come from. That's the military. And it would have to be below the level of the generals who have performed so badly

in the sport. It would have to come from the crulls. It's very risky. Because you and I get together, Peter, and we talk privately about organizing to take him out. But do I trust you when you walk out of the room?

You're not going to turn me in? Exactly. This is really hard. So I think he does survive. Wow. Well, you know, this story, as tragic as it is, has been this overwhelming story of international diplomacy, international warfare, international intrigue.

It's been quite the opening months of this year, and who knows where it's going to end up. Janice, as always, thank you for this. We'll talk to you again. This story's not going away anytime soon. Always a pleasure to be with you, Peter. Dr. Janice Stein, University of Toronto, the Munk School. You know, many of us, when this started, and I say many of us because I was included, thought it would only last, you know, a few days, at most a couple of weeks.

We'd bought into the line that the Russians had overwhelming force. They had amassed it on the borders of Ukraine, and once they started moving in, it was going to end fairly quickly. We were wrong. We were dead wrong. And now we're left with the situation where we could be facing months, if not years, of this conflict with no resolution. As Janice said, this is not ripe for resolution right now. All right, that's our update on the situation with the story in Ukraine and looking at it from a different perspective, sort of what's happening in the background. And I think Dr. Stein, with her background and her clear knowledge and understanding of how things operate in the background, on the diplomatic front, on the negotiation front, has given us, once again, lots to think about.

All right, before we go, and before we give you a sense of what to expect through the rest of the week, I wanted to relate one other experience I had over the weekend. As I said, I'd gone up to Ottawa. I flew up. And both flights going and coming back left pretty much on time. The flight from Toronto to Ottawa was, I don't know, 15 or 20 minutes late. There seemed to be some, they kept saying, oh, we're just loading a few extra bags. I'm not sure if that was really the case, but nevertheless, it didn't really matter because it didn't impact the time and I wasn't in a rush anyway.

Coming back was a horror story. And here's why. I flew from Ottawa to Toronto. The flight left at 8 a.m. on a Sunday morning. So you would assume that it's going to be pretty quiet at the airport, the departure airport. And for the most part, in Ottawa it was. Unlike Pearson in Toronto, flying up on Saturday morning, it was a nightmare in the security lines.

Now, I don't know how many of you have used Pearson Airport before, domestically or internationally, but there are two separate areas, right? They separate the domestic travelers from the international travelers, and they each have their own, at least up until COVID, they each had their own security areas. Now it's all one. It's all one security area because of COVID and the lack of travel. They laid off a lot of people who worked at the airport and worked in the security end of things.

But they had enough to maintain one security area. And for the light travel that took place during the heavy days of COVID, that made sense. Doesn't make sense right now. There are huge lineups going through security. That's what I think really caused the delay, the relatively minor delay, flying up to Ottawa on Saturday morning. Now, coming back to Toronto, it was 8 a.m. on a Sunday in Ottawa. It was pretty quiet. So there were no issues about leaving Ottawa.

Everything more or less was on time. We get to Toronto on time, just before 9 a.m. We landed. We taxied. Taxied up close by the gate. But then we stopped 100 feet short of the gate. And the captain said, we're just waiting. We'll only be a couple of minutes.

We're waiting for the ground crew to arrive. Five minutes goes by. Ten minutes goes by. Fifteen minutes goes by. Captain comes back on and said, really sorry about this delay. It'll only be a couple more minutes. Twenty minutes goes by. Twenty-five minutes goes by. Somewhere in the 30 to 35 minute range. And the plane is sitting there on the tarmac, guzzling gas, waiting for the ground crew. Now, there are a number of reasons for this and a number of excuses given as to why this is taking place. But it all comes down to a COVID thing, right?

Either there are a lot of people with COVID who are part of the various crews at the airlines, not just ground crews, but also flight crews, you know, pilots, flight attendants, you name it. And therefore, there's a lot of juggling going on on people. There's that. Plus, there's the issue that a lot of people were laid off because of COVID and haven't all been hired back yet. Flights are still not at the normal rate or at least the rate they were before COVID.

I'll give you an example. They've just instituted a third flight overseas, Air Canada, the third flight from Pearson from Toronto to Heathrow, London, just one of the many, many routes they have. But normally before COVID, there were four flights a day. During COVID, there were at most two, sometimes just one. Now they're up to three. And most of those flights are going packed now because people want to travel, even though COVID's not over.

Anyway, getting airlines back up because they laid off a lot of pilots and flight attendants. You can't just say to a pilot who hasn't flown for two years, okay, we want you back. In fact, we want you back tonight. You're flying to London. You're taking 250 passengers to London tonight. We know you haven't flown for two years. That's nothing. Just, you know, push the button, start the plane, and away you go. Well, it's not that simple, and everybody knows it's not that simple. And the pilots go through, you know, not training courses, but getting up to date and a thorough flight check

before they sit in a plane with passengers in the back. Now, many of those checks are done on simulators, which are outstanding. I don't know whether you've ever had the opportunity I have, and it's like the real deal. You really think you're airborne. Everything around you suggests you are. Anyway, they're not up to speed on cruise,

and they're not up to speed on crews, and they're not up to speed on ground crews. So this combination of people who are getting COVID, and there are a lot of people getting COVID, as you know, if we haven't had it ourselves, we all know somebody who's had COVID, or has it at the moment. At least one person. Usually it's a lot more than that, especially if you live in a city. So if you're planning on traveling and if you're planning on traveling through Toronto or any major city, make sure you've got time on your side.

And make sure your connecting flights, if you're taking connecting flights, leave you some space. A little room for error, as they say. All right. Tomorrow. I don't know what we're going to do tomorrow. I've got check in with my buddy, Brian Stewart, to see what he's got and whether we're doing something tomorrow. So I'll check on that, but you can be sure we'll have something. Wednesday, Smoke Mirrors and the Truth. Bruce is still over in the other side of the world, but we'll track him down and we'll talk SMT. Thursday, there's a bit of a backlog of some of your ideas and thoughts. We may do that on Thursday.

And Friday, of course, is Good Talk with Chantelle Hebert. And I'm not sure whether Bruce will be with us this week or not, but we'll see. If not, you can be sure we'll have a great replacement. Rob Russo was terrific last Friday, and he may be with us again. But as you can tell, kind of flying by the seat of my pants here, getting reorganized and getting my head in the right time zone after being overseas for most of the last month.

Anyway, good to be back. Good to have had you with us on this Monday edition of The Bridge. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening. We'll talk again in 24 hours.