The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Paging Dr Bogoch. Paging Dr Bogoch.

Episode Date: November 15, 2021

It's been almost two months since we last checked in with epidemiologist Dr Isaac Bogoch and there are lots of developments to catch up on, Where are we on Covid, what should we be thinking and finally, what the heck is he doing in Brussels?  Insightful and fascinating as always.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. Paging Dr. Bogoch. Paging Dr. Bogoch. That's coming up in just a moment. Our podcast is brought to you by Questrade, Canada's fastest-growing and award-winning online broker. Tired of getting dinged with fees every time you buy or sell U.S. stocks? Well, good news. With Questrade, you don't have to. You can hold U.S. dollars in your trading account and avoid expensive, forced conversion fees every time you trade U.S. stocks. Switch today and get up to $50 worth of free trades. Visit Questrade.com to open an account and use promo code QUEST.

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It was September 27th, to be exact. So a little shy of two months, but it was a long time ago that we last checked in with one of the most respected epidemiologists in the country, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, who's been a regular on the bridge over the last couple of years as we've tried to make sense, gauge our actions, make decisions with expert advice. And Isaac Bogoch has been the man for us, the doctor for us. Amongst a group of doctors in Nova Scotia, from Alberta, from Ontario, who have helped us on this story over the, you know, 20-plus months now of the pandemic.

And Dr. Bogoch is going to help us again today. But first, a little scene setting as to where we are. Because, as I said said it has been a long time since we last checked in on the big picture of this story trying to get a sense of you know where are we right now in the fight against covet 19 and what should we expect in the near future and perhaps beyond. So let's set the table in a sense in terms of where we are right now in terms of the numbers, the stats. You know, and they are difficult to look at and they're difficult to listen to and they're

difficult to read. Since the pandemic began in Canada, as of this past weekend, 29,309 deaths. So you have to look at that number and the rate at which we continue to have deaths as a result of COVID-19 and assume that probably by the end of this year, we are going to be looking at the 30,000 figure in Canada. And, you know, that is a pretty horrific number. But that's the reality of the situation that we have been facing. What is in men in total cases? 1,745,349 cases in different parts of the country. That's the total. And there's still about 25,000 active cases in the country. That's the total. And there's still about 25,000 active cases in the country.

So those are your kind of basic numbers. There's been a lot of talk, and you've heard it, about how protected are you if you have the vaccine, if you've had two doses of the vaccine. Well, here's what we know and have always known. The vaccine does not give you 100% protection.

There is still a chance that you can catch COVID-19. The virus can still invade your body. But the odds are against that happening. But they're not 100% against that happening. So looking at the

Government of Canada numbers on the cases following vaccination, all right, and this breaks it down. So let me go through this for you. 82.2% of those who were unvaccinated make up the numbers in terms of those who have caught COVID-19. In other words, of those

of the overall number that have ended up as a case of COVID-19 since vaccines were available, which is almost a year ago now, 82.2% of those were unvaccinated. Eight out of 10. Five percent had been vaccinated but were not yet protected by the vaccine. Remember, if you get a vaccination, it takes 14 days before the protection kicks in. So 5% ended up catching COVID-19 after they were vaccinated, their first dose,

but before the 14 days were up. 5.9%, almost 6%, were only partially vaccinated. In other words, they'd had their first vaccine. They had yet to have their second, or if they'd had their second, it was once again still within that 14-day window after the second. 6.9%, almost 7%, were fully vaccinated. That they had been determined to be a COVID case after the 14 days period of their second dose had taken hold. So that's the number, okay?

That's the main number. 6.9% were fully vaccinated and were under the assumption that they had done everything right, and yet they still caught COVID-19. Which brings you back to the original statement, if you will, that it is the vaccine does not give you 100% protection. You could still catch COVID-19. And that's why you'll have, you know, doctors and everybody else tell you, you got to keep your mask on. We're not into a no mask period yet.

That's why when you get on an airplane to travel across the country or around the world, you're only allowed on the plane if you've been double vaccinated and have proof of that. And yet you still have to wear a mask. Even on an airplane, one of the best sources of air, clean air, fresh air anywhere in the world. What airplanes go through to pump continuously clean, good air into the passenger cabin is quite something. But you still have to wear a mask. All right, so those are some of the, listen,

I could spend an hour going through all the different numbers for you, but I wanted to give you the very basics, where we stand in terms of overall numbers and where things look for those who are vaccinated, fully vaccinated. But there's lots more to this story to try and get a proper update on where we are. And that's why we've reached out to Dr. Bogoch again. The good doctor is at the University Health Network in Toronto, teaches at the U of T.

He's on a number of these science tables, certainly with the provincial government, but I think also he's an advisor on the federal scene as well. And of course, he's talking all the time to his own colleagues, epidemiologists in different parts of the country. And as it turns out,

in different parts of the world and as it turns out in different parts of the world because when I reached out over the weekend to talk to Dr. Bogoch he's always been either in his office at the university or at the hospital or at home

guy never stops working, just like so many of his colleagues over these past 20-odd months. But he wasn't in any of those places. In fact, he wasn't in Toronto. He wasn't in Canada. He was overseas. And I tracked him down in Brussels, Belgium. And there's a story in that too.

And it crosses a number of the areas that I love to talk about. So let's take a quick pause. And when we come back, we'll talk to Dr. Isaac Bogoch. Our Black Product Sponsor is The Economist. If you don't already know, its expertise lies in making sense of the world's most important developments. It offers completely independent opinion and analysis, giving you a balanced global view of an issue instead of a biased or politically motivated opinion. And don't be fooled by the name. It covers pretty much everything

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of this trip that you're on why don't we start in the ivory coast what were you doing there we're going there so yeah no i was in the ivory coast uh this last week i've been working there i believe i'm not since 2001 i've got some very uh good friends and colleagues that are in public health and science there we work on screening and treatment programs for various uh infectious diseases of public health significant a lot of these are infections that we don't see in Canada lots of malaria and lots of intestinal parasites and worm infections so we run screening and treatment programs and look for better more efficient smarter ways to do it so that's that's where I was and I'm halfway home now okay well you know it is COVID an issue there?

I mean, it's an issue everywhere, but is it like a bigger issue in Ivory Coast? Is it typical of what's happening in Africa? Yeah. I mean, it's, yeah, this first thing I walked off the plane, you know, I was chatting with my friends and colleagues there. It was in Abidjan. Everyone's wearing masks. But still, you know, you've got about, it was about 4% or 5% of the population vaccinated now. And they've got some increasing access to vaccines,

but of course, access is slow. And what's interesting, again, this is all anecdotal, but, you know, obviously there's that group of people that are certainly eager for vaccination, and you know, what limited they have, it's going into arms. And you hear similar stories to that, that we've, we've battled in what you've seen in the United States, there's been some rumors and some hesitation as well. Pardon me, that's my alarm. But yeah, I mean, so they have a little bit of that as well.

But I mean, obviously, they don't have remotely close to the amount of vaccines that they need. It's tough. It's tough in the countryside. Just my own observation was that, you know, I was the only one wearing a mask. No one was wearing a mask once we got out of the big city everyone I was working with had been vaccinated but they're all health care providers and scientists and doctors so yeah it's just an interesting observation obviously very sad I think the take-home point is we need to continue to really support global vaccine initiatives like COVAX because there's billions of people that need a first and a second dose. How did you feel personally about your own situation while you were there? I mean, with you being in some cases the only one masked,

I mean, that must have felt pretty strange. I mean, honestly, it wasn't so bad. I mean, it is what it is, right? You know what you're getting into. I think if you talk to your healthcare providers, actually, I can't speak on behalf of all healthcare providers. Many of us who worked on the hospital wards, you know, in the pre-vaccine era,

taking care of COVID patients, you know, you put on your mask, you go and do what you do, you do what you're comfortable with, you avoid situations you're uncomfortable with. I got to say, though, I don't think I was in any situation that I was're uncomfortable with. I got to say, though, I don't think I was in any situation that I was very uncomfortable with.

The most people that I was with were masked most of the time outside of the big cities. Oh, yeah, no mask. I kept mine on in indoor settings. A lot of the work we're doing up labs underneath, you know, trees and villages to, you know, conduct these screening and treatment programs in areas that really don't have traditional access to care. So, you know, most of the work is pretty safe anyways, because it's outdoors. Did it make you think about the situation back home in terms of the difference? Like what we have, what we're going through,

how we're dealing with it compared with what you saw on the ground there. Yeah. I mean, we are so incredibly privileged. We are so incredibly privileged to be debating third doses in Canada. You know, when it's very obvious that there's just so many people that need a first dose in so many parts of the world, mostly in low income and low middle income countries. I mean, we are so lucky, you know, or, you know, we're talking about, you know, vaccinations for the five to 11 year olds is taking too long. Really? Like it's going to be a week or two. Yeah, I get it. Maybe it could be faster, but like in the grand scheme of things, a week or two, like give me a break.

We will be okay. We'll be okay. I know many people might disagree with me on that. I might not have the same self-control in this interview because I have, I've been awake for about 20 hours in transit, so I'll try and keep it together. But yeah, we're doing just fine in Canada from a vaccine vaccine front and the issues that we're debating are still important but it's small potatoes compared to what other other places are dealing with and and what is their you know what is their their greatest need right now is it is it simply vaccines on on the ground there or is it a better understanding or what is it no they need vaccines listen they have very strong public health like i think a lot

of people underestimate many african countries they can do a lot of good with the limited resources that they have uh and they're champions at vaccinations, right? They can get the vaccines to the different parts of the country and then disperse them through the various health outposts throughout the country. You know, there's, you know, measles vaccines and, you know, all the other routine childhood hepatitis B vaccines. And we were in some pretty rural, remote parts of the country. And you see the public health posters on the dispensaries uh you know and and people coming in for the routine mmr measles mumps rubella and hepatitis b vaccines in childhood like they've got systems they've got expertise they can do it they just need access to the vaccines

i think some people think that they you know they wouldn't even know what to do if they had the vaccines nothing could be further from the truth they're very skilled like many of many of these low-income countries are fantastic at vaccination programs and you know polio all these other nationwide vaccines are there the coverage is fantastic what about information or disinformation and misinformation is it as big an issue in the places you visited as it is increasingly here. I mean, there's a whole nother round of it this week, both in the U.S. and in Canada. Yeah, full disclosure, I tried my hardest, just out of pure curiosity,

I tried my hardest to get to really address this and ask a lot of these questions. I don't know, and I don't know because it's my fault. My French is terrible, as they say. And a lot of the communication is either in French or in other local languages. And I just can't get the subtleties. So, you know, of what I ask, sometimes people say, oh, yes, we hear rumors of this or someone hears rumors of that. And, you know, but I just, I just don't know to what extent I know it's there, but I just don't know to what extent. Okay. So you're,

you're sitting in Brussels as we do this interview and, you know, people who listen to my podcast know that I love airline stories. I, you know, there's a thing about airplanes and airports and airlines that has always intrigued me um so i'm fascinated by the reason you're stuck in brussels right now before you can get back to canada so tell us that story because this is not a cold this is not a covid story this is not a pandemic story this is an airline story yeah geez i mean i'm trying to i miss my family i'm trying to get home.

We worked out on Ivory Coast. It's a bit of a haul. We were in a, you know, as the crow flies, it's not too far from the main city. But, you know, it's about an eight-hour drive in the Ivory Coast to get from where we were to Abidjan, which is not the capital. It's the main city. And, you know, you got to get a covid test to get on the plane which don't even get me started that was a hassle get on the plane all night flight to uh from abidjan to brussels because brussels airlines has some excellent west african connections for anyone

who travels to west africa that's this is a one of the airlines to be on and then a couple hours in brussels get on the flight air canada take me home and it's going to be uh brussels to montreal and then a quick stop in montreal to montreal to toronto so we're driving on the plane i don't know what the right word is get heading over to the runway and then the pilot gets on the intercom and says hey everybody sorry there's a crack in the windshield we have to pull back we gotta see if we can get this repaired. And then, of course, the plane stops, and everyone's looking out the window. And then you see those buses pull up to take passengers off.

We're like, uh-oh, this is bigger than what it sounds. Short story long, they've got to repair the windshield. The flight's not leaving. I tried calling, like, could I go through London, Frankfurt, Paris. Nothing's going to happen today. So I'm sticking it out in Brussels for a day and going to head back tomorrow. And, like, you I go through London, Frankfurt, Paris? Nothing's going to happen today. So I'm sticking it out in Brussels for a day and going to head back tomorrow. And, like, you know what? I'm exhausted.

I've been up all night trying to work on an airplane overnight. But I'm just going to drink Belgian beer and eat French fries and waffles and chocolate and make the most of it. Well, they make good chocolate. There's no doubt about that. And their beer's not bad either. I'm not sure how well those two things mix together, but nevertheless, you got to do something with your time while you're waiting for the windshield to be fixed. You mentioned one thing that also intrigues me,

and that is the testing you have to take before you get on the flight from Ivory Coast to Brussels. And I bring this up because, you know, I was just in Scotland, and the PCR tests that you had to do before they'd let you get on an Air Canada flight were unbelievably expensive, right? And, you know, this is for a double-vaxxed person who's got no symptoms, nothing. But nevertheless, you have to do it, and within 72 hours of flight departure.

Was that the same situation that you were faced with? Yeah, I'm actually calculating. I've got a currency converter from the West African CFA to Canadian dollars. So I paid, and it wasn't tourist fees. It's, it's, it's the equivalent of about 55 bucks Canadian for a PCR test in the Ivory Coast. Like talk about a barrier to travel 55 bucks in the Ivory Coast. Like, you know what that gets you? Like that can go a long way, but you need a PCR test. The other interesting thing too, was, you know, it's, it's not a small country. Like it's a big place. There's, you know, lots of people there. It's very streamlined. There's only a

handful of places where you can get these tests done prior to travel. And you're, you can't get on the plane without showing it. And, uh, and you have to sign up online and pay online. Like it is, there's no way to cheat the system. So they do a great job. The issue is in a pretty big country. The only few labs that you can do this in are in Abidjan. So if you're in, you know, Yom Kippur or Buakke, these are other big cities in, in, in Cote d'Ivoire, you gotta, you gotta drive to Abidjan. And then it takes about 48 hours for you to get your results back as well. So like, it's, you know, the convenience factors out, but of course you, it's, it's a fortune. There's a lot of barriers. I think we're seeing this everywhere, even in Canada.

Like if you want to go cross border shopping, you know, drive to wherever you are, maybe Buffalo, or if you're in Alberta, Sweetgrass is the border crossing to go to, to go to Montana. Like, you know, that's, I if you're in Alberta, Sweetgrass is the border crossing to go to Montana. Like, you know, I don't know what it is. It's about 200 bucks just to cross the border and then come back. So, you know, I don't know if they're doing this as a disincentive to travel or if the policy just hasn't kept up.

I'm not quite sure what the reasoning is. I think, you know know we could pivot to rapid testing which is cheaper readily available um depending on who's doing the test it's a little more palatable as well you don't really get that swab way back in the brain did you have the very far back no no it was uh it was just it was basically like the rapid test in the nose, but they also did the throat. But it was, you know, 55 bucks, that was a bargain. I should have gone to Ivory Coast. In Scotland, it was 170 pounds.

Oh, my God. Yeah, so it was like 300 bucks each. That's insane. Absolutely insane. Mine was to leave Canada. I went to Shoppers. I think that's the going rate, and that was, I think it ended up being about 200 mine to leave canada i went to shoppers i think that's the going rate and that was uh i think it ended up being about 200 bucks to leave i had a pcr test like it's a fortune it is a fortune and it i don't know it seems like a scandal of some kind to me but well you know what

like it's it it turns this into i mean here i'm way over my skis i can talk infectious diseases but i got opinions on other things. Like it's like, so who's going to travel? It's the wealthy, right? It's the people who can afford it. It's not fair. It isn't fair. And, you know, I saw a lot of the Canadian mayors along the border crossings on it this week, trying to convince the federal government that it's time to, you know,

to drop that requirement because it is, you know, it's crazy, especially, you know, if you're just crossing the border to shop and then coming back on the same day. Like for whatever reason, even if they don't want to flick that switch and say, okay, we're not doing any testing, you can at least do a rapid test or something like that. But I think the other important point is you can't travel if you've got COVID full stop. Like I still see the need for testing, but you know, A, it can be more affordable. B, you can use that different test, a rapid test and, and C, it basically answers the

question you're really seeking to answer. Are you contagious to others at the time of travel? Yes or no. So I think a rapid test would be a very reasonable pivot because it sort of checks a lot of boxes and it is accessible in most parts of the world. Okay. Let's get around to what we normally talk about when you and I get together. And that's kind of where we are. I'm assuming you're up to date, even though you've been away because you're in constant contact with your people and you're on various science tables. There's got to be a book in those tables. Like, there's got to be something fascinating about that story beyond the science of it all.

It just sounds, we sit at the science table. There's got to be something interesting that happens there beyond the discussions of infectious diseases. But beyond that, where are we as of, here we are in mid-November, where are we? Well, it's pretty clear that things aren't getting better. They're getting worse. The crystal ball, obviously, is a bit foggy. You look at other highly vaccinated places, similar to Canada. In some places, you see infection taking off.

Germany, Netherlands, for example. In other places, you see it holding steady. You see infection taking off Germany, Netherlands, for example. In other places, you see it holding steady. You know, there's a lot more to this than just the percentage of the population that is vaccinated, although that certainly has a lot to do with it. A lot of this is also human behavior. Are you masking? Are you, you know, back to pre-COVID behaviors? Are people still taking some precautions? And, you know, it was pretty clear. We knew, I mean, we knew in the summer that cases were going to

go up eventually in the fall and winter or September and October in Ontario and not all of Canada, but in Ontario was fantastic. And many other parts of the country was pretty good as well. Quebec had a decent September, October as well. But yeah, I mean, we're going to get a rise in cases. What the amplitude of this wave is, I don't really know. Will it truly result in fewer hospitalizations, ICU stays and deaths? Yeah, I think it will. It doesn't mean that we won't see hospitalizations and ICU stays and deaths. But remember, wave one, we saw nursing homes just destroyed. Wave two, we failed the most vulnerable yet again. And our nursing homes and long term care settings were just destroyed.

Wave three was crickets. Nothing, nothing happened. That's where the deaths were in wave one and wave two. It was awful. Wave three, nothing, barely anything happened there because they were all vaccinated. And now that we're in wave four, at least in Ontario, and I think much of the country, most of those individuals have had a third doses they're eligible and they're getting their third doses doesn't. But then on the other hand, yeah yeah there's a lot of community dwelling seniors and people who are vulnerable in community

settings that have even have not received the first dose uh as well so you know we've got a very transmissible delta variant i think it's still debatable whether or not delta causes more severe illness or not there's some canadian data that says it does. There's some American data that says it doesn't. It's just more transmissible. But regardless, it's very transmissible. More people are going to get infected. If you're not vaccinated, you're probably going to get this at some point. I don't know when. It might not be in the next week or two, but certainly over the next year or two years plus, people are going to get this. And, you know, it's not unusual anymore to see young people get in,

get hospitalized because of it. So that's a long winded way of saying it's going to get worse. It's not going to get better, but I don't know how bad it's actually going to get because a lot of how bad it actually is going to get depends on us. Are we wearing masks? Are we ventilating? Are we going to continue to push first and second doses in unvaccinated adults? When do we start to get first doses into five to 11 year olds, which will help at a community level? How will our third dose program roll out? And will we get to more vulnerable people? So a lot of these are

political and policy decisions that will determine the amplitude of this wave that we're in right now. What is your thinking on the third dose and on the 5 to 11-year-olds? So for 5 to 11-year-olds, let's do it. Obviously, people can make an informed decision for themselves. I know that many parents are chomping at the bit to vaccinate their children others are hesitant and others are going to say i'm never going to do this fine as long as you're making an educated decision for your kid you're doing the right thing i mean there's too much information for a conversation i've got two kids in that age bracket they're going to get vaccinated and uh and i know many other people are going to do the same yes i'm I'm well aware of what the risks are. I'm well aware of the potential for myocarditis, but I'm also well aware of what COVID can do as well.

So I'm vaccinating my kids. The, you know, some parents still have questions or concerns. Fantastic. That's totally OK. That's totally normal. I mean, but we've got a bit of a gift of time here. You've got a couple of weeks or a week or two before health canada gives it the thumbs up so go sit down with a family doc or a pediatrician whoever looks after your family and get those questions addressed in the next week or so because once they say yes i think we're going to see this roll out pretty quick in terms of third doses or boosters whatever we're going to call them third doses is probably more accurate yeah i mean i'm, I'm glad NACI made the decision that they did. I think they had the right recommendations, right? They started vaccinating ages ago, very vulnerable people in long-term

care facilities. They started vaccinating people with immunocompromised conditions. Now we're vaccinating community, depending on where you're in the country, community dwelling seniors. They've made the cutoff 70 plus, you know, indigenous communities like these are all this is all smart. And what we'll see with time or what we'll hopefully see with time is a gradual widening of the umbrella in terms of who's eligible for that third dose. It's pretty clear for people listening. This is probably a three dose vaccine for most people, maybe not for everybody.

Like, I can't look you in the eye and tell you, you know, does a 12-year-old or a 20-year-old need a third dose? Like, I have no idea. But, you know, a 50-year-old would probably need a third dose at some point. So, you know, I think we'll probably see a broadening of the umbrella of who's eligible. And, you know, we can also respect, sorry for going on and on, but it's important. You know, we just five minutes ago discussed the tremendous inequity of vaccines and countries that have very, very limited access. You can respect the WHO's moratorium on widespread vaccine third doses. We can. We absolutely can. They asked for a widespread moratorium on third doses until 2022. And they said they're okay with select populations at risk getting third doses until 2022.

And I think we can have Canadian policy aligned with the WHO's request and not have, you know, third doses for everybody and just really keep it to, you know, appropriate, but still narrow, well-defined groups who would benefit from a third dose. Like I wouldn't start giving it to you know 30 year olds or anything like that in in the 2021 calendar year i don't think that's necessary nor is it ethical but you know what if you say that in a public setting you're going to get a lot of different vocal strong opinions on this um if you had to take this trip next week, the one you're on now, would you take it given what you're seeing happening around the world?

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, a lot of this boils down to individual risk perception, risk threshold, risk tolerance. Listen, I'm, I'm fine with it. I, you know, where, where are you going to get COVID? You're not going to get, it's less likely to get COVID on the actual plane. The planes have phenomenal ventilation systems. Everybody's masked, except if they're eating and drinking. Like you can get COVID on a plane. It's just way less likely than many people think.

And a lot of that's driven by masking and good ventilation. You just got to have your head on a swivel, like at the bottlenecks and travel, you know, how do you get to the airport? How do you, uh, where do you, how do you go through customs? How do you get on the plane and off the plane? Like where are the crowds? Uh, and, and, you know, can you avoid those, those, those crowded settings? And, you know, I I'm, I'm okay with it. Uh, but I appreciate that some people might not be ready to take that step. And that's okay. We'll all get there at our own pace. You know, this question is the kind of one that you'll look at me and say, Peter, you know, get with the program.

Things have changed as we're living in a different world. But when I read the history of the 1918-19 flu, the last great pandemic, that's basically how long it lasted. 1918-1919, a little bit into 1920. This one, with all the scientific advances that we have in our world today, seems to be never-ending as opposed to that one. That's a great question. No, I think you're totally, I wouldn't say you're off your rock for that. This is great. A couple points. One is that flu never really left. It just morphed into a flu that is integrated into our seasonal flus.

But yeah, it did emerge from pandemic where, you know, tens and tens and tens of millions of people died to something a little more benign still the flu and it still kills, but it wasn't as, you know, it certainly shifted. I think we have to remember that there's definitely similarities, but there's also differences as well. Like this is a coronavirus. It's not an influenza virus. And, you know, there will be similarities in the sense that there will be, you know, a hallmark feature of pandemics are waves, right? And this is no different. All we're talking about is waves,

waves, waves. But at the end of the day, this is a different virus and the properties might be different and the mutation might be different and the virulence might be different. The evolutionary pushes might be different. So, you know, we get what we get and we got to work our way through this. I think we're, you know, even though people are frustrated and upset that cases are going up, But also think about where we'd be without vaccines. Like, can you imagine if we didn't have, you know, 80 high percent of our eligible population with the first dose of a vaccine? I mean, we would be getting just pounded right now. Like we would be getting throttled by this virus. And we're not, we're not like, we're just not because we have so much vaccine uptake and yeah, we'll slowly make our way through the, you know, remaining whatever percentage of people who haven't got that. Of course, we're never going to get to a hundred percent, but there's still uptake. And then we'll expand to the five to 11 year old crowd. And like, it all helps. Like it, it all helps. And I, you know, sure.

We're going to have some peaks and valleys throughout the winter. We are, we absolutely are. But you know, I think throughout the winter as well, you're also going to see a few things working in our favor, third doses and vulnerable populations and expanding third doses in, in the 2022 calendar year to younger and younger groups that, that need it. I don't know what the cutoff is, but you know, it's certainly going to be 50 plus and maybe even expand beyond that. You'll see those five to 11 year olds.

Many of them will get vaccinated as well. Like this all pushes us in the right direction. I think people, you know, everyone's annoyed with masks, but for the fall and winter, most people are just going to wear their masks, which is a very reasonable thing to do. And I don't think we'll see any, um, major shifts in policies where people will prematurely declare the pandemic over in Canada. Yeah, it might happen, but I think we've seen that happen twice already and everyone watched and hopefully learned their lesson there.

And, you know, maybe by spring we'll be on the tail end of this thing and all will be well. Maybe we're on the tail end of it now and our winter is going to be, you know, mildly annoying, but not horrendous. I don't know when you say and just to close this out of a final question when you talk about how you know that flu of 100 years ago morphed into basically something that we're still dealing with today one of the reasons why you know that and others one of the reasons why we we have an annual flu shot um there's an increasing discussion that there's probably going to be an annual COVID shot. You buy that? I don't know.

So short answers, I have no idea, but here's total speculation. Please don't hold me to this. I'm just talking about adults, not kids, because I'm not going to pretend to know anything about kids. Number one, we're all going to get dose one, dose two, and the third dose, most adults will probably benefit from a third dose. This is pure speculation. The short answer is I don't know, but I really think after that third dose, it's going to be it for a while, barring a completely new variant, which I don't think is really going to happen. I think the

variants can gradually and slowly chip away at the effectiveness of the vaccine, but I think it would be really unlikely for a variant to emerge like that, where all of a sudden the vaccines just don't work and we have to redesign these vaccines. So, you know, we might have a gradual erosion of effectiveness over time requiring a booster years later. But again, that's just a guess. I don't know for sure. As always learned a lot from this conversation,

not the least of which is when you get back on that plane, check the windshield, right? Just, you want to make sure. Listen, safe travel home and, and we'll talk to you again. I'm sure in the, in the weeks ahead. Thanks so much for this. Anytime. Looking forward to it. Have a good one.

Yep. Well, there he was, Dr. Isaac Bogoch. And, you know, once again, I love the way this guy talks because it's, you know, he obviously has the scientific and medical background to say the things he does, but he also talks in a way that we kind of get it and we understand, and he's very clear when he thinks he's, you know, as he says over his skis, that he's in an area where, you know, he doesn't have the expertise to give definitive opinion, and so he warns you of that, that this is just kind of his take on things.

But there's a lot in there, and I love the fact that we do this every once in a while. It kind of brings us up to date on his thinking, on what he's hearing, and what he's seeing. And so to have had this opportunity so many times during the last couple of years has been, I think, a real benefit to all of us. Okay, that's it for this day. As we look through the week tomorrow,

we're back with another edition of The Bridge. Wednesday, of course, is Smoke Mirrors and the Truth with Bruce Anderson, and Friday is Good Talk with Chantelle Hebert. Maybe Thursday, uh, some letters from you. There've been a lot of letters over the last few weeks. They're all over the map on a lot of different

things. And that's fine. Uh, you can always write me at the man's bridge podcast, gmail.com, the man's bridge podcast at gmail.com. And for those of you looking,

and I get a lot of emails on this, uh, about more information on the book off the record, it still continues to do extremely well, and hopefully it will through the next few weeks, because it's a great addition to your Christmas gift list, if you wish. You can go to my website at thepetermansbridge.com. There's information on the book and how to get it.

If you don't recognize the fact that you can just go to your local bookstore or you can go to any of the online booksellers and pick up your copy. All right, that's it for this day. I'm Peter Mansbridge. This has been The Bridge. Thanks so much for listening. We'll talk to you again in 24 hours.