The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Rating Pandemic Risks - Lessons For The Holidays

Episode Date: November 26, 2020

Plus, whats with the cover art today?

and hello there peter mansbridge here with the latest episode of the bridge daily this for thursday of week 37 something a little different here today, but first of all, a couple of, what do we call them, housekeeping notes? Kind of more than housekeeping, but a couple of things before we get into the main point of today's podcast. First of all, an explanation of the cover art today. Because it is a little different. It usually relates to the topic of the day, but this is different. And I just, like, I've been thinking about doing this for the last little while,

because I use this every day, what you see on the cover art, whether on Instagram or Twitter or on my website. It is a picture of what is almost directly in front of me here in my office in Stratford, Ontario. And as I've told you before, the Stratford office is, it's kind of small. It's like a little library, but small, where I do a lot of different stuff. Obviously, I read here. I also write here. It's where some of the writing for my book,

Extraordinary Canadians, by the way, number one for the second week in a row on the Canadian nonfiction list. Available at all your favorite bookstores, both online and in person,

including your independent bookstores in your towns, but also in the big chains, Amazon, Indigo, Walmart, Costco. But I digress. What you see on the cover art today is, well, it's basically a calendar, but it's an old-style calendar, desk calendar. Little knobs to turn to get the right day and the right month and the right date. And I love this little guy.

My office is full of kind of stuff like this that I've picked up along the way. This, I would guess, is from probably the 20s, if not earlier. It may be even much older than that. But it's in perfect shape. On the bottom, there's a label that says it was made in Aurora, Illinois that retailed at $1.25. It's probably worth $50 now at least, if not more. Because it is, as I said, in perfect shape. But I use it every day. I dial in the date.

There it is today, Thursday, November 26. And it's just kind of like a neat thing to look at. And that's often what I'm looking at while we're doing the podcast. So I thought I'd share that with you because I knew you'd be fascinated to know all about it. Now, the next thing I wanted to mention to you, tomorrow being Friday and the weekend special, where I love to read and talk about your emails to me during the week, which you send by the way to the Mansbridge podcast at gmail.com, the Mansbridge podcast at gmail.com. But maybe this week with a little bit of a twist, I was thinking, you know,

I got me started yesterday when we were, Bruce and I were talking about trying to figure out a way to have a contest at our, our little, our new little restaurant, at least we're part owners our new little restaurant. At least we're part owners in this little restaurant in Ottawa. And we were going to figure out a way to give away the odd signed book of extraordinary Canadians available at your favorite bookstore. Number one on the Canadian non-fiction list for two weeks in a row now. Anyway, I was thinking, why don't we have a little contest in the next 24 hours?

You sent me a letter and here's, I want to, you know, the whole idea of this podcast is to be realistic, but also to try to be positive whenever we could. So here's a way of trying to sound positive tomorrow. I want you to write to me with your idea of something that's good in your life. Right? What's good in your life right now? We've all got difficulties given the situation with the pandemic. But let's try to think positive for a moment. You tell me something that's good. That this whole experience has left you, at least part of you, one element of you, feeling good about something in life.

So I don't want letters with 10 different ideas. I want a letters emails with one idea. Okay. What is the one thing? So you got to think about this for a bit. And at the end of the day, the prize for the best letter, and I guess I'll try to conclude which is the best one. This may be too short notice for week one, but we'll certainly give it a try.

The prize will be a copy of Extraordinary Canadians, number one on the bestseller list, Canadian nonfiction. And I'll sign it. I'll sign inside and I'll get it off to you. I'll get it mailed to you. All right? So there's an idea.

We'll see how that goes. We'll see whether it gets a response. If it's anything like the response for getting a signed book plate, it'll probably be quite a few. But anyway, so send it along to the Mansbridge podcast at gmail.com, the Mansbridge podcast at gmail.com, which is different from the website that we have, thepetermansbridge.com, which is the main website for this podcast. And you can get back editions of the podcast. But you can also use the convenient link that's at the top right-hand corner of the homepage

on thepetermansbridge.com to track the book, Extraordinary Canadians. And you can also hear me read the forward for the book. A number of you have asked about forward, you know, whether I was going to do an audio book. I'm not on this book.

We didn't think that one through, but you at least have a free copy of the forward, the audio of the forward through my website. Okay. Let's get to, uh, the matter at hand. Okay. And the matter at hand is this. I'm just getting my pages in the right order here, because I'm going to have to do some reading.

The matter at hand is an article that I found in theatlantic.com earlier this week. And I found it. I found it it, obviously I found it good, but one of the reasons I found it good is I think we can use it. It's obviously designed for an American audience right now, but it was titled Pandemic Thanksgiving, How to Reduce the Risk. All right? Now, obviously, we had our Thanksgiving almost a month ago or more than a month ago now.

And I think we are, as a result, some of the difficulties we're having right now as a result of the pandemic are because of our behavior at Thanksgiving Canadian time. Numbers have spiked, deaths have spiked, hospitalizations have spiked. None of it's good. The Americans now are going into their Thanksgiving, and if you've watched television in the last couple of days, it has been, you'd think there was nothing going on in the States because the airports are packed. There's like 2 million travelers a day, which is almost like what it was before the pandemic struck. None of that's good. And all the health authorities are warning they're going to suffer as a result of this. There are going to be spikes within a couple of weeks in the number of cases, as if they

didn't have high case numbers right now as it is. By four weeks from now, the death numbers will be going up. This is the forecast of the health officials as a result of what's going on right now this weekend in terms of behavior on Thanksgiving. So I'm going to read a good chunk of this article because it's basically a list of about 10 things of where you can reduce the risk by being smart. And we can use these for Christmas, just like this article was designed for Americans to use for Thanksgiving.

So let's get into it. First one on the list. First of all, it's written. I should tell you who it's written by, because that'll give you some reason to believe it. James Hamblin. He's a doctor, and he writes for The Atlantic. He's a staff writes for the Atlantic.

He's a staff writer for the Atlantic. He's also a lecturer at Yale School of Public Health. And he's a co-host of a number of programs, Social Distance, and he's author of Clean, the New Science of Skin. All right, so he's got the cred, as we say. So let's get started. The first question, if you're going to travel to see family, how should you rank the modes of transport? In other words, what's the safest, what's the riskiest mode of transport? So we'll start from the safest.

Safest is, you guessed it, walking or biking. Those are the safest ways to move around. Well, that's fine if you're traveling, you know, across your neighborhood or maybe across town. A little trickier if you're traveling to the other side of the province or the other side of the country. But walking or biking is number one. Number two, driving in a car with people inside your bubble. In other words, immediate family members who you live with, they're your bubble. Okay, so if you're in the car with them, it's no different than you being in the car, or sorry, in the kitchen with them.

Right? So that's obviously, that's safe. Or safer. Three, riding the subway. I assume that means also buses, some form of public transport. Where there's distancing and masks and all that. Number four, flying.

Now, flying is, you know, flying is, forget about the pandemic for a minute. Flying is the safest way to travel. It's safer than walking. But during the pandemic, obviously, people have concerns about the crowded space, quality of the air, although ventilations in aircraft are really good. Probably better than wherever you're sitting right now. So flyings number four, five, driving in a car with people outside your bubble. So whether it's strangers or people you don't live with, they're in the car with you, even if they're wearing a mask.

That's the least safe, the most risky of these five modes of travel. They actually have a sixth one on here, but I think it's in there as a joke. Taking a submarine. That wouldn't be fun. Well, it might be fun, but it wouldn't be safe. Next question. Does the risk of air travel change during Thanksgiving or Christmas if tons of people are flying?

Hello. Of course it does. Yes, up until now, flying itself has proved to be low risk. The ventilation is good. People wear masks and are mostly quiet. Airports with large crowds are likely more hazardous than time spent on the plane, and that risk will increase as more people travel. Still, the act of flying in a plane is less of an issue than close, prolonged contact in a home where people are eating and socializing. Traveling vigilantly only to arrive at someone's home and act as though there's no pandemic is a serious misallocation of anxiety. Got it. I'm not feeling well, but I think it's just a cold because I tested negative for the virus. Should I go to an outdoor gathering? No, you shouldn't. A negative test is not enough to reassure you that you don't have the virus, especially if you

have symptoms. The most common coronavirus test, a PCR test, can confirm only that you do have the virus, but it cannot ensure that you definitely do not have the virus. If you're not feeling sick, is it morally defensible to get a coronavirus test in order to see family given testing shortages? This is probably not the weekend to try that. We're in the middle of the throes of the second wave and it's not good out there, whether it's in the States or here in Canada. And so they kind of reintroduced that kind of concern that unless you have symptoms,

please stay away from the testing area because there's so many people in testing and there's so many people, frontline healthcare workers who need constant testing. So there is that. Leave the test for those who need them. Should my family do temperature checks at the door? You know, some people, you know, purchase those, and I did too.

Those things that you hold it up to your forehead. Quite frankly, I got to tell you, I don't find those reliable. They're certainly not as reliable as the ones that you put under your tongue. But the answer to this question has got nothing to do with reliability of that machine. This is the answer. Should my family do temperature checks at the door? The answer is no. This is an even less effective mode of screening than PCR tests. By the time a fever develops, if it does at all, you've likely been contagious for days. So temperature checks give a false sense of security. The fact that someone doesn't have

a fever isn't meaningful information that should change how they behave or how anyone else behaves around them. How much safer is an outdoor meal than an indoor meal? Much, much safer. Almost all transmission of the virus happens indoors. Almost all transmission of COVID-19 happens indoors. Not all of it, but almost all of it. Even if people are close together? Eating outdoors doesn't mean you're invincible.

Still try to stay six feet apart. If you huddle together around a cramped table and have close face-to-face conversations with the people next to you, you could absolutely infect them. Okay, we all know this one. We know the situation, but how do we deal with it? Here's the question. What if Uncle Al won't pull his mask up over his nose? Give Al, give the name Al a bad name. It's always Uncle Al. If you insist on having a family

gathering, at least make clear ground rules. Ask everyone to agree to them beforehand and to help correct people who seem to be forgetting. Even if Uncle Al believes some bizarre chain email he read about how masks are communist propaganda. He agreed to the rules for the day. Once he has made the choice to attend, he's made the choice to wear a mask and to wear it properly. If he doesn't go along with the rules, the whole group should ask him to leave. See you later, Uncle Al. Anthony Fauci said this weekend, I guess, you know, last weekend, that we all need to do risk-benefit assessment before traveling. I think the benefit of Thanksgiving or Christmas is so great that I'm willing to take the risk.

Assessing the risk of any single gathering is impossible, even if you're ready to die, and you'd sooner die than do a virtual Thanksgiving or Christmas. You could infect other people and set off a chain of infections. Any assessment of personal risks that you're willing to take would have to factor in how much harm you're willing to cause. That's the issue. The issue is not just about you. It's about everybody else in the room. My 95-year-old mother is staying with my sister in Vermont, and my wife and I were planning to drive and see them for Thanksgiving. Both my wife and I have had very little contact with other people. We practice social distancing, and dinner will be no different. Can this be done safely?

Now, before I give the answer, just a reminder, if you're just wondering what's going on here. This is an article in thisweeksatlantic.com that is assessing the risks of a variety of things in terms of Thanksgiving, which is the American Thanksgiving right now, today, and all this weekend. And I think this is a good list for us to keep in mind is the American Thanksgiving right now, today, and all this weekend.

And I think this is a good list for us to keep in mind for Christmas. We're a month away. You might want to keep all these things in mind. So where are we going again here? It's the 95-year-old mother staying with the sister in Vermont. And my wife and I were planning to drive and see them for Thanksgiving. Okay, nothing is perfectly safe, but your number of merged bubbles is only two. In other words, you and your wife and your mother and her sister. Not the mother's sister, but the traveler's sister.

So there are only two bubbles, and they're very small bubbles. And the fact that your mother's 95 is significant. If it's very important for her to see you on the holiday, and she understands her particularly high risk, the time with her may be justifiable. If you all decide to do this, remember that just as you've been careful before this dinner, your family should be equally or more vigilant for two weeks after the dinner.

I'm alone this Thanksgiving. What should I do? Well, lots of people are alone for Thanksgiving every year. Fortunately, this year has produced tons of guides for cooking for one. There are also new ways to interact with family and friends that didn't exist in the past. You know, obviously we talk about Zoom, but there are literally dozens of new formats that have been developed over the last eight months. Some of them are really good. You've just got to go searching for them. Suddenly, eating in front of your computer has gone from sad to virtuous and potentially even fun.

Let's see. This is important, and it will be equally important for us as we get closer to Christmas, given the nature of our country and winter. Because some hospitals are overloaded, should we stop doing things that are unrelated to the pandemic, like shoveling snow, speeding, opening a champagne bottle with a sword. Sword openings are fine, says Dr. Hamblin. I'm sure he's got tongue-in-cheek there.

But never speed. Keep a regular exercise routine to lower the chance of having a heart attack when you shovel snow. This winter is going to be a bad one to find yourself in a hospital. If you're seriously injured, you'll likely get medical care that's simply to what you would receive in another year. But minor injuries and mild symptoms of conditions such as heart disease will be triaged, delayed, and missed. The health effects will play out in years to come. Those who do get treated in a hospital will add to the strain on an already overwhelmed health care system. About one in five American hospitals is already short on staff, and hospitalizations continue to rise. There are some regional variations to this answer, but overall this is not a good time to need elective care.

Be especially careful. Okay, two more. I feel restless. I just can't sit at home and do nothing. I'm worried about everyone having Thanksgiving. I'm not a medical professional, but I want to help. Answer. The U.S. is seeing a surge in food insecurity. If you can volunteer any time, money, or non-perishable foods, now is a great time to do that. You don't need a medical degree to help address the effects of the pandemic.

A sense of purpose can go a long way to staving off the darkness of winter in any year, but especially this one. And Dr. Hamblin obviously has a bit of a sense of humor because here's his last question. Is it okay to thaw a turkey by dropping it into hot grease? So the doctor's answer is, yeah, it's okay to thaw your turkey, but dropping a frozen turkey into boiling grease

will send flames 20 feet into the air. Yet people do it every year. There are some truths about humanity that even a pandemic cannot change. So thanks to Dr. Hamblin from Yale University School of Public Health for some thoughts and ideas that we can keep in mind as we get ready. You know, just think, four weeks from yesterday, it's Christmas.

Four weeks from today is Boxing Day. What are things going to be like for all of us then? Okay. Before I go, a reminder, tomorrow is the weekend special. Your thoughts, questions, comments. Don't be shy. Send them to themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com.

And we're going to test out the idea of having a little contest for your copy of Extraordinary Canadians. Extraordinary Canadians for two weeks in a row on the bestseller list for Canadian nonfiction at the position of number one. So the idea here would be you send in a question, keep it focused, and keep it just one answer on what are you finding right now that's good

about your life, even in the midst of all the chaos and negativity that surrounds us right now with this difficult situation. What are you finding that's good? And what could it mean for others by sharing it with us? Okay? And I will look at these answers, and if there's one that really stands out from all the rest,

they will get their own autographed copy of Extraordinary Canadians. And I'll make sure it gets to you before the holidays. Okay. That wraps her up for today. It's been a treat. I'm Peter Mansbridge. This has been The Bridge Daily. Thanks so much for listening, as always.

And we'll talk again in 24 hours. Thank you.