The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - SMT - Vaccines And The Race Between Canada and the US

Episode Date: May 19, 2021

There are two very different ways of looking at who is doing best at rolling out the vaccines - the US or Canada.  Bruce Anderson has his take today on Smoke Mirrors and the Truth.  And what to make of Avi Lewis and his entry into federal politics.

Hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. It's Wednesday. Smoke, mirrors, and the truth is next. Are you still trying to find ways to get into the world of crypto? Well, look no further. BitBuy is Canada's number one platform for buying and selling Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. BitBuy has launched a brand new app and website with a new look, lower fees,

and new coins. Bitbuy is your one-stop shop to get involved and super easy to use for beginners. Visit bitbuy.ca or download the Bitbuy app. Enter referral code podcast20 to get $20 free when you make your first deposit. and hello there once again peter vansbridge here in toronto for uh this week bruce anderson is in his regular spot in ottawa good morning to you good morning peter, you sound energetic. I got a lot of energy. There's so much sun, and it's just beaming down on the radish patch, and the arugula is starting to show up. Everybody's just feeling better about the way that the eating is going to be come August, I guess.

I'm new at this, so I don't really want to predict it. Well, it is hot out there, man. It was like 28 degrees or something yesterday. And, uh, in Southern Ontario, the, you guys up North, I don't know how it got to where it got to in Ottawa. It's pretty good. That's great. Across the river. We can see people golfing.

I don't know about you, but we can see people golfing across the river. You go right down to the edge of the Ottawa River and look across. It's happening over there. Well, let's not talk about that. All right. I got a note from my friend, Lorne Rubenstein, from one of the best golf writers in the world, right? He's Canadian.

And a hell of a golfer. And a hell of a golfer, which is really not fair. The combination of both is not right. No one person should have both those qualities. Anyway, Lauren and I were back and forth making hay out of the Ontario situation of no golf, the only place in North America, perhaps in the world. The head of the golf associations in the United States wrote a letter to Doug Ford saying, hello, like, don't you get it?

Don't you understand what happens with golf? Anyway, it's just, and also, you know, people are starting to say, hey, Doug, you know, you're kind of base supporter. Many of them are golfers. do you think they're happy his whole thing i know we're not going to go way down the rabbit hole of of ford and golf but but his whole thing which is that you you know he doesn't think that everybody else should be able to golf because if his buddies went golfing, they would have a couple of quote pops after the game. I don't know if he's been around these golf clubs, but even when they had any kind of activity going on, the bars are closed. The restaurants are closed. There's no, would you like to stop

for a pop? It's a, you come, you play, you leave. That's it. So maybe they're carrying around beers in their trunks or something like that, and they might have one in the parking lot. But that's not the problem that the rest of us should have to endure, it seems to me, anyway. Yeah, I agree. Listen, before we get started, I want to give a heads up to one of our listeners. His name is Alex Levy, and he's a young guy. But he has this whole idea that there should be merchandise for the bridge,

and especially for Smoke Mirrors and the Truth. And he dummied up. You know, obviously I can't show it on radio, but you get the picture. You've all seen those four dummies books. And he's got a great one here, Radish Farming for Dummies by Bruce Anderson. It's really good. But he's got a number of selections here, the possibilities for merchandise for the bridge.

That would probably be a big seller because people want to get into it. And now you've already got volume two in the works. Radish farming or not asparagus farming. Was it asparagus you said? No, arugula. Arugula. Yeah. Arugula for dummies.

I like arugula. I think it's a great idea. Like this is later summer. We're going to have some fun with the actual product and the marketing. And we should reach out to this fellow and see what he has to say and some more ideas on offer. All right. Okay.

Let's get started on vaccines. Because, you know, occasionally when I'm like really bored, I follow your Twitter thread. Yes. And it's been interesting watching you get into a little back and forth with uh i guess it's one of the ndp members about yeah about where we are positioned as you as our listeners know for and take part in the debate surrounding this issue of whether or not or how badly we are off compared with the

americans now we all know in terms of sickness and death and there's no contest it's just a terrible situation in the last year and a few months in the u.s bad enough here in canada but not on that level however the issue of vaccines there is no question that they americans came out of the gate fast on vaccines they were responsible in many ways for the development of vaccines there is no question that they americans came out of the gate fast on vaccines they were responsible in many ways for the development of vaccines and the assumption has always been that we're way behind in the rollout of vaccines and it actually like so many things that involve numbers it depends how you look at numbers and what kind of take you take on the numbers. And so there's clearly a difference between the number who have at least had some vaccination,

in other words, at least one dose, and those who've had two doses, the fully vaccinated ones. The Americans are doing well on that. So I think somewhere around 30%, plus on two vaccines. The UK are up close to, I think, just over 50% on the two-dose vaccines. No, sorry, around 40% on the two dose for the UK. Canada's way back, 4%, because we've had a policy of one dose, and later you'll get your second dose. But however, on the one dose, at least partially vaccinated, and partially vaccinated is a good deal, right?

I mean, you're somewhere in 80 85 percent protected um canada is right at the point of passing the u.s around 50 48 50 the brits are a little ahead of both they're around 55 um but still you're back and forth and you are at you ask a key question when you're trying to decide between what those two things are and how you relate to them. So tell me where you're going. Yeah, look, I think it's been an interesting thing to watch just if we can separate ourselves from the kind of the emotion and the real actual health risk of the pandemic and the issues around vaccination. And just watch the way that the politics and the coverage of the vaccination choices by the government have kind of played themselves out.

I mean, in the first instance, we had opponents of the government, critics of the government saying, this is terrible. We don't have any domestic manufacturing capacity. We're reliant on others. We're not going to get enough vaccines. We're not going to be able to vaccinate everybody until sometime next year. Mexico is going to have more vaccines than us or all kinds of things that were kind of thrown at the government. And, you know, I think in some respects, that's the way the system should work. There should be pressure brought to bear by people who say, here's a need. What are you going to turn out to be most effective, how many of any of them we're going to be able to get because everybody in the world wants to get them. And so we're going to order a whole bunch of different kinds of vaccines. And that's the way that we're going to we're going to deal with this.

Now, the next and as far as I'm concerned, and other people might have a different point of view, but we've got more than 100 million vaccine doses on order for delivery this year. That's a pretty big number for a country with 37 million people. Then the next choice that the government made was, do we follow the suggestion by some of the manufacturers that first dose and second dose happen within a relatively short period of time? Or do we talk to the scientific experts and ask them what they think will be the effect of lengthening that period of time? And on the basis of knowing how many doses we were having, realizing that there was a high degree of protection afforded by that first dose, and wanting the country to get back to normal before too much more time had passed, governments, not just the federal government, but the provincial governments accepted the

recommendation that you could lengthen the period of time between the first and the second dose. So here's the situation that we see today, Peter, that you've alluded to. And there are different data sources, but I rely on the one that is on the web called Our World in Data, and it's managed and produced by Oxford University, pretty reputable organization, I think. And when we look at percentage of the population with first doses, what's happening in the United States is that it rose pretty quickly, and then it really started to taper off. And it's growing at a much, much slower rate than what's happening in Canada. Canada right now is a bit of a rocket ship upwards.

Some like to use the expression hockey stick, because I guess it's our national game. And good luck to the Leafs against the Habs tomorrow, by the way. I don't like your chances. But anyway, back to vaccines. Canada is less than a percentage point behind the U.S. today. And we've been closing fast. And today will probably be the day, if not today, then tomorrow that tweeting about how Canada was so far behind the US in second doses. I sort of felt like I wanted to ask him the question, are you suggesting that the country should have taken a different approach, that we should have taken the approach of the

United States and really kept a lot of people from getting that first dose in order to get more people fully vaccinated. That's a choice that people can argue for, but he didn't then want to argue for that choice. He backed off that point. And I think that's a critically important point, because when I think about what makes me feel safe based on the evidence as I read it, I'd rather be in a country where in a little bit period of time, we have 75% of the population or more with at least one dose than live in a country where there might be 40% who have none in them and won't. And a lot of those people say they won't take it. So there's a lot more hesitancy in the United States and they're running into that. There's a lot more acceptance and demand

in Canada. And that's a good thing for us. And it also feels to me like we're going to, that the government's bet, I guess, on this strategy of first dose and then second dose when we get the vaccines. That might well work out really good from the standpoint of both protection and accelerated timetables to getting those second doses. Anyway, here's hoping,

and today could be a really good day for Canadian optimists who like to look at our line relative to that U.S. line. You know, one of the things that, as you were setting that up, that you didn't include, and I think it was just, it wasn't deliberate or anything, I think it was just, it is something to keep in mind, that the American advantage early on was that they were actually developing the vaccines in their own country. I mean, they have the manufacturing of it there.

In fact, we need to depend on it in some cases to have the shipments made from the U.S. to Canada in terms of the purchases that were made. So on the one hand, that was clearly an advantage for them, a disadvantage for Canada. And Canada had to find a way of overcoming that. And you're quite right. They went around the field. They didn't buy from everyone. They didn't buy from the Russians. Their deal with the Chinese kind of fell through.

But so they did go elsewhere and sign contracts. And you can argue about what the timetables were on those contracts, but they did sign contracts. And this is before any vaccine had been developed. So it was a gamble at that point. It seems that they gambled well in what they went for. But nevertheless, it got off to a slower start, obviously, than the Americans did. But you're quite right. The numbers on first dose clearly indicate that we've caught up.

Now, here's the question, though, that I ask you, because I think your question is really good, and it obviously blunted the criticism, if you will, or the questioning on the part of the NDP member. But here's my question. It doesn't feel like we're catching up. I mean, what it feels like is when you watch television, you see the reports, we're into deep sport mode now.

You've got baseball, you've got the hockey playoffs, you've got the NBA playoffs. And there are people in the stands. They're not full, but, you know, they're giving a certain amount of seats available to fans. And there's this sense in the U.S. that things are coming back, and they're coming back in a hurry. Broadway's opening.

They'll start rehearsal soon. I don't think they actually open until September, but it takes a while to get organized on stuff like that at theatre. Restaurants are open. New York's opening up. So we're looking south of the border. Things are opening up, and here they're still locked down and they may be locked down for a little while yet. So that's a legitimate way of looking at the two countries

and saying they're ahead of us. They're quite a bit ahead of us. Now, maybe they're irresponsibly ahead of us. We'll find that out in a hurry, but they are ahead of us. They look different than we are. And of course the border's closed. So all those things, you know, make you tend to have you look at this from a different perspective. I suppose. I, I, I think it really does come down to cup half full, cup half empty mindset and the fact that whatever our some bad news stories and you're inclined to kind of be beaten down by the pandemic, you're going to go, this will never be over. This is going to be miserable for a long period of time. And if on the other hand, you're, and I'm not suggesting that's you, Peter. In fact, I know it's not you, but for me, every tiny sound of good news on this.

I grab onto it. I run around with it for half the day until it gets, you know, the hope gets beaten out of me by the world around me. And then I forget about it. And I hope for some more good news next morning. But right now, I see good news everywhere. I'm reading about EU countries reopening their borders, saying you can travel here if you're fully vaccinated. And I say fully vaccinated doesn't make me wonder why we're not fully vaccinated.

It makes me it reminds me that we're going to be pretty soon. And. Ten minutes can feel like 10 years in pandemic time. But it can also, you know, I can look at what I think is the next several months and say, we're going to be done this if we play it right, if we play it safe. Maybe the Americans will be safe too. I hope they are. But at every possible instance, they've moved more quickly to relax restrictions or to not even follow them. And we've been more careful and we've lost a lot fewer people. And so while we can say it's taking forever here, it feels painful, it feels restrictive. Our population has consistently chosen a safer, more responsible course, I would say.

And that's got a lot to do with our culture. It's not because politicians order us to do this. That obviously has an effect. But we continue to err on the side, and our polling shows it every single week. If you ask people, should we have more restrictions or less? There's two saying we should have more for every one saying we have less. We should have less. So I see lots of hopeful news.

And when I talked to a client of mine in the United States yesterday, and he said, you know what? Fenway Park is going to reopen for all fans in May. I felt good about that. It makes me feel, okay, this is going to happen here at some point too. And I hope it's safe for those people and that that becomes another benchmark in the trek towards getting out of this situation. I'm sure the Red Sox would love Fenway Park to be open and host the Blue Jays after they got absolutely hammered. Their best pitcher got absolutely hammered their best pitcher got absolutely

hammered by the young blue jays last night eight nothing this toronto team looks for real now i know i say that about all sports all the time but uh i watched that game it was there was quite something um just one quick comment on on time the the movement of time as you suggest i i found this last year and a bit fascinating because the clock seemed to move so slowly at the beginning so slowly you can count each day endlessly and now it really does at least me, it feels like it's moving very fast. And it's moving very fast towards a conclusion that we're all going to like. Fingers crossed that it turns out that way. Yeah.

But it's funny about time because it does shift around like that. And, you know, obviously it's all going at the same rate. Last year it was moving like your last year it was moving like your backswing and this year it's moving like your downswing and we got to kind of control our enthusiasm a little bit right now but i feel pretty good about the way the summer and the fall is going to play out. And I, I hope everybody stays safe between now and then. Okay. We're going to take a quick break, a music break,

as we like to say, and then we'll be back with a familiar name in Canadian politics. Peter Mansbridge back in Toronto, Bruce Anderson's in Ottawa. This is Smoke, Mirrors and the Truth on the bridge. And some comments now on, as I said, a familiar name in Canadian politics. His grandfather, David Lewis, was the leader of the federal NDP and made quite the mark, especially in that 72-74 almost coalition government

with the Pierre Trudeau Liberals. It wasn't a coalition, but at least it wasn't officially. But there was some movement, and we can credit David Lewis with some of the social policy that we take advantage of today. His son, Stephen Lewis, was the leader of the Ontario NDP and made his mark there and remains today a terrific person in terms of speaking out on public policy issues. He was also Canada's ambassador of the United Nations, a Brian Mulroney appointment in the mid-80s. And now his son, David Lewis's grandson, Avi Lewis, has decided he's going to run federally for the NDP in British Columbia. And who knows where that may end up leading.

But Avi Lewis is no stranger to having an impact on Canadian politics and especially an impact on the federal NDP. So don't expect to just sort of hear about Avi Lewis when he's going through the nomination process and not hear about him again. You're probably going to hear about him a lot on a lot of fronts. He's going to be an interesting person to watch. Controversial at times, energetic always. He'll be a fascinating player in the political picture in terms of this country and certainly within the NDP. Your thoughts on Avi Lewis?

Well, I think he's a very, very smart individual. I think he's extremely articulate. I think he knows how to communicate extraordinarily well. And so he definitely got star candidate appeal for the NDP. I think the, you know, I was reading what he said when he was announcing his candidacy and he said, this is going to be a hard riding to win. The NDP finished fourth there in the last election. And while he has a house there, he hasn't lived there for a little while. I think he's back there now. But I don't think the fact that he hasn't lived there is necessarily going to be a barrier. I think the fact that he's got roots there, that he's got a house there, that he's kind of determined to get to know the people in the riding, that's what

people generally want to know. And people can come from that kind of a context and win a riding, especially if they have his communication skill set and a name that people recognize. So I think he's a very interesting entry into the Canadian political marketplace. And I think it's good when people of his accomplishment and stature and mindset and intellect get into politics, whatever party. I think that there could be some challenges pretty dramatic impact on the NDP and a less dramatic impact on the Canadian body politic a few years ago. purposefully described as being a kind of a radical shift, saying that we really need to confront this climate change crisis and we need to transform so many of the things that we do. And well, I think a lot of people looked at it and said the agenda is in the right direction and the sense of urgency is appropriate. Other people looked at it and said some of the ideas would be too draconian in their impact on some people. And not enough care was given to understanding that there are people who live in different parts of the country who experience a different economy and who would feel kind of dislocated or fearful and disinclined to support this kind of agenda. It caused a lot of problems for Tom Mulcair, who was trying to build on Jack Layton's coalition

that was a more broad-based coalition that the NDP had enjoyed before, because here was a policy initiative that in effect was saying, and it wasn't deliberate, it wasn't clearly stated this way, but in effect it was saying the NDP is too timid, but we need a more radical NDP. Now, there will always be people in the NDP who feel that way. But those people always represent a challenge for a party leader who's trying to build a little bit bigger base of support and more seats. And that's Jagmeet Singh's challenge as well. The last thing I'll say is that a lot of the language in the Leap Manifesto was really about fossil fuels are the enemy,

and we need to really get off that. And again, there are people who feel that in Canada, but the conversation of only a few years ago is a different conversation than the country's having right now. People aren't really thinking that fossil fuels will hang on forever. They're really just saying, how long will it be before e-vehicles are the majority, where we're transitioning to cheaper solar and wind energy, where we're introducing hydrogen. So there is almost 78%, I think, in our latest survey of the Canadian public who say this transition is happening. It's not, and it's accelerating.

So the rhetoric and the ideas of only a few years ago can look a little bit anachronistic right now. And so it remains to be seen if Mr. Lewis talks up the Leap Manifesto or tries to support a little bit kind of of a revamped version of a Green New Deal for Canada and how that relates to the success of Mr. Singh and also more particularly maybe to Rachel Notley's efforts to win government again in Alberta, where a lot of Albertans are saying, we're not sure that Jason Kenney was the right choice.

We're not sure that turfing Rachel Notley was the right choice. And so anything like Abby Lewis of a few years ago becoming a notorious voice or a really important voice in the NDP of today does pose some challenges for her too, potentially. A couple of points. You're right, and the NDP does have a tradition that goes back decades where there's always been a portion of the party that is arguing for greater change and faster change on the left side of the party. And, you know, quite frankly, most parties have those kind of situations within them, a portion of the party that's arguing for more. I mean, we'll just watch the Conservatives, you know, there is often, as there is now, a portion of that party that's on the right, far right of the center of

that party who are positioning and arguing for a different kind of change. So that is kind of traditional, but it's also, there's a whole thing about timing, right? When Avi Lewis came out with that manifesto, as you said, it presented real problems for Tom Mulcair, not the least of which was not what was in the manifesto, but it was the timing of the manifesto. He dropped it about a week or two weeks before a party convention that was going to vote on Tom Mulcair's leadership and whether or not there should be a review and a new vote. And it was just a mess for him.

He kind of said the wrong things at the wrong time in reacting to the manifesto. And the next thing you knew, he'd lost the leadership. Yeah. So one has to look at Avi Lewis. I think one has to look at Avi Lewis in more ways than just simply policy. Given his family tradition in leadership, one assumes it can't not be at least partly on his mind in terms of his strategy right now. I mean, Jagmeet Singh is clearly the leader of the NDP right now, and he's had a lot of good press and this, that, and the other thing over his term as leader. But there's an election coming up.

And if he's still in fourth place after the election, people are going to be asking questions, especially if there's a bright young guy, you know, having just won a seat in BC. Yeah, I think that's true. But then every once in a while, I remind myself that a lack of performance in the NDP has not always been, has not always resulted in as much of a push for the leaders to get out, to leave as it does in some other parties. You and I can both remember multiple party leaders of the NDP, federally, some provincially, some might make the case that Andrea Horwath has kind of underperformed the opportunity in Ontario,

and there doesn't ever seem to be a real kind of buildup of pressure to change leaders. So it's possible that Jagmeet Singh, who's generally relatively popular in the country, could have another not spectacular outing and not face that kind of pressure. I think the bigger challenge for the NDP kind of comes in the, when we look at the sources of their political energy in the past, there was a feminist aspect to it. There was an environmental aspect to it. There was an organized labor aspect to it. When I look at organized labor now, a lot of those organizations, they're not liberals, but they see in the liberal agenda a lot that they

can support. A lot of the workers who are members of those unions aren't anti-capitalist. They're not looking to take down the companies that their members work for. They're looking to continue to strengthen the benefits that their workers have, the protections that their workers have. So I think that has become a weaker source of energy for the NDP. I think on the feminist question, this is a federal government that, to some eyes anyway, has been as feminist a government as we've ever had. And so that's robbed a little bit of the energy. And I think the fact that there's a Green Party, as well as a federal government that's kind of embraced a fairly ambitious agenda on climate change, also weakens that. So ultimately, the NDP needs to figure out what it is that

they're going to run on the basis of. Is it radical or is it a better version of a more center-left agenda? And within that question, what are the specific ideas? And, of course, the big risk for them always is that they say, we'll eliminate student debt. There's really nothing stopping the liberals from saying, by the way, we'll do that too, and we'll probably win this election if you vote for us. And the NDP can't make that happen.

Wouldn't be the first time the liberals have stolen something off the NDP platform. That's going to, you know, they hope will work to their advantage. There's kind of a history of that over the last half century, really. Okay.

Good discussion. As always ainder that tomorrow. You're pretty nervous about tomorrow, right? Tomorrow is the opening game in that series, the Habs Leafs. You know, I'll be honest. I am nervous about it. And I don't think the city takes it seriously enough. They think they're going to have a walk in the park with Montreal.

They're going to get out on the ice. They're going to see those stunning colors that the Habs wear, which are easily the best uniform ever created for any sports team anywhere. I'm not worried about the colors. I'm more worried about looking up when you're in the Montreal arena, which won't

be till game three, looking up and seeing those banners hanging from the rafters. Banners. Like you can hardly see anything but all the banners. Oh, I know. It's crazy. I mean, I'm loving the fact that two teams are playing each other, and I hope it's going to be good hockey and as exciting hockey

as we've witnessed in some of the games so far. But I think either side, if they assume anything, they're wrong. I think it's wide open. It'll play off to the playoffs. Things can happen. You were going to say something else about tomorrow, something that was less about hockey and more about what? Hey, you started it.

You got me going. Even CBC Sports asked me to write a little thing for them, and I think it's out today on CBC. If the Habs win, will you sing the Canadian song? I could teach you the words. I grew up with it when I was in Valleyfield. It's a nice little melody. It's pretty easy to sing.

I know you've got more of a William Shatner singing voice. It's more of a talky kind of thing. But it would be pretty cool if you would do that. If the Habs win, we'll be talking about cricket. Because I'll be moving my allegiances to another. I'll be moving my sports allegiance to another area. Anyway, look forward to that. But also look forward to tomorrow before the big game is actually our final episode of Good Talk

with Chantelle Avera joining us for this season. We're going to take a hiatus of some sort. We want to protect ourselves to get back in time for lots of additions around the election whenever that comes. So tomorrow will be the last one for a while, and that's just on sirius xm um so you can find that on channel 167 of sirius xm it's a free right now if you um sign on online at siriusxm.ca slash peter mansbridge um that's tomorrow five o'clock eastern but at noon tomorrow the bridge is back as it always is. Bruce, thanks very much

for Smoke Mirrors and the Truth on this day. Good conversation. Get back out there on the back 40. We will talk again soon. See you again in 24 hours. Thank you.