The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Syria -- Why This Story Affects Us All

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

Syria's Assad government fell and the dictator fled the country.  What happens now and who will pick up the pieces? ...

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. It's Monday, that means Janice Stein, and we have an incredible story to tell after this amazing weekend of a shift in geopolitics in the Middle East, unlike anything we've seen in decades. That's coming right up. And hello there, it's our regular Monday episode with Dr. Janice Stein from the M of walk us through some of the significant changes that have been happening in our world in these last couple of years. And perhaps this one is the most significant. It's not often that Janice gets so excited to tell us a story that she's just amazed at what's happened. She didn't see it coming. Now, when you sort of look back at these last 10 years in Syria,
Starting point is 00:01:14 you can say, well, you know, things were starting to shift. But this, what happened this past weekend, and happened so quickly has left the experts going, what happens now? What's going to happen next? This could have enormous implications. And we're going to get to that in a moment. And, you know, it's a lot of new stuff for many of us, including Janice. And there are times, especially at the beginning of this interview,
Starting point is 00:01:50 where we've got to say, like, slow down. Okay, this is all new. We've got to walk carefully through this. And we do. And I think you'll find it really interesting. But first, as we always say on Mondays, a little housekeeping to do. And a couple of things to be thinking about as we go into this week. And the main one being what the question of the week is.
Starting point is 00:02:18 Now, let me tell you as a preface, I get a lot of mail. I don't know, a couple of hundred at least, emails a week from listeners, from you, many of you with answers to the question of the week, but also many of you with just thoughts about the program, ideas about topics we could discuss. And I want to tell you, I read everything. I don't, I literally don't have time to reply to everything. Certainly in the kind of detail that many of you talk about in your letters.
Starting point is 00:02:55 But I want you to know I read them and they do influence me. Sometimes I'll get into a back and forth with some listeners, which is all good. We don't have to agree on everything. And, you know, often we don't. And that's okay. Because, as I've said before, it makes us think. Anyway, in the mail last week came this letter with an idea.
Starting point is 00:03:27 One that I think is a pretty good one. I think all your ideas are great, but I don't have time to deal with all of them. I guess is what I'm saying. Anyway, this one comes from Jane Fitzwilliam. Where is she from? Oh, she's from Toronto. And this was after last week's question about what is a journalist, right? Where we had lots of your answers.
Starting point is 00:03:57 Didn't mention this one. Jane says, a journalist is an impartial observer of current events who take multiple actions to ensure that they are not a participant in the story. Good point. We have numerous editorialists, podcasters, entertainment personalities that do not take the serious responsibility of seeking truth over doctrine or advantage. And then, Jane says,
Starting point is 00:04:29 that was a great question. I'd love to hear another one now. And you know what, Jane? We're going to take your advice. And this is going to be the question for this week. It's in so many ways a natural follow to last week's What is a Journalist? This week the question is, what is a politician? You know, we talked about how the definition of a journalist
Starting point is 00:04:57 seems to have changed over these last years as a result of the changes in technology, the changes of the kind of news landscape, the changes in the way we handle news. But what about politicians? What is a politician in today's world? And is it any significantly different than it was a generation ago? So there's your question for this week. What is a politician? You have until Wednesday at 6 p.m. Eastern time to answer it.
Starting point is 00:05:36 Keep it short. Include your name and the location you're writing from and send your answers to themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. What is a politician? Good question, Jane. We're asking it now. Okay, today's program. Let's get to Dr. Janice Stein and this situation that we've witnessed at breakneck speed over the weekend. Here we go.
Starting point is 00:06:16 Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School at the University of Toronto. So Janice, you know, governments don't get overthrown every week And usually there's a build-up to these things But this one, you know, in a sense there was a build-up over a number of years But in many ways, this happened in like two weeks How did it happen like that? You know, it's really an astonishing story And it surprised all the regular Middle East watchers, including me
Starting point is 00:06:44 How fast this was. And this story actually, of course, starts with the Arab Spring in 2011. That's where the roots are. And that, you know, the Sunni Muslim movements that were trying to throw Assad failed, and they failed because Russia intervened from the air and started bombing. And then Iran and Hezbollah made a crucial decision. They were going to send in really well-trained guys on the ground. And so Assad survived this, but he never really regained full control of the country.
Starting point is 00:07:30 And bring us up to today, in the northeast of the country, where nobody was really paying a lot of attention, the Kurds, the beleaguered Kurds established an autonomous regime and managed to survive and thrive. And of course, that just infuriates Erdogan in Turkey. Continuously, because he, the majority, a large number of Kurds live in Turkey as well as in Syria and some in Iran. And Erdogan sees Turkish Kurds as a mortal threat to his regime. It's a longstanding Turkish problem, but Erdogan is particularly militant.
Starting point is 00:08:18 So that enclave sitting there in the north. East always bothered him. So in the northwest of the country, at the other side of the country, but in the northwest, there's another group. There's two of them. And one is called the Syrian interim government. And these are Turkish-backed militants that Erdogan has sent over the border
Starting point is 00:08:51 to secure that part of the Turkish-Syrian border to prevent the Kurds from moving further west. And right next to him, right next to these groups, was Jalani and the Tariar Alsham. They coexisted in the northeast. It's inconceivable, Peter, that they would have broken out like this, Jelani, without Turkish support. The government of Turkey has really, they're on the ground.
Starting point is 00:09:27 They get great real-time information, and they're advanced fingerprints, frankly, all over this. So I think the first thing that is going to be on the agenda to the Kurds in the West, survive this. Yeah. Right? Yeah. And that's where American forces are in the West with the Kurds.
Starting point is 00:09:59 That's where those 900 American troops are. They are squarely within Erdogan's sight right now. And in fact, some of those Turkish militias have already started to move east to launch an offensive against the Kurds in the west.
Starting point is 00:10:18 That's going to take place in the north of the country away from the spotlight, away from the media that are on the ground. But that's a big story coming over the next few weeks for sure okay let me let me stop you for a minute because you've thrown a lot at us here and uh you know we're trying to understand this it's a incredible incredible story that sort of, for most of us, came out of nowhere. Right? You're right. The buildup over the last 10 years since the Arab Spring,
Starting point is 00:10:51 I can remember there was a time at which we thought Assad was going to fall back then. And I can remember, you know, the great Neil McDonald telling us, Assad's not going to fall now. You know, you guys think everything collapses right away. That's not going to collapse right away, not in Syria. And he was right. He was right at the time. There is absolutely no doubt about it.
Starting point is 00:11:13 But obviously, over the last 10 years, a lot of things have happened, and you've named some of them. You mentioned Jalani a number of times. It's a name we're going to have to get used to that we didn't know of a week ago. Abu Muhammad al-Jelani is basically the leader of one element of this that's taken over. What do we know about him? He's really, really interesting. There's a really interesting story.
Starting point is 00:11:40 First of all, that's what we call Nodegere, a war name that the leaders assume. Al-Jalani means from the Golan. So from the Golan Heights. So you can see how this story is going to connect up. He was originally a member of Al-Qaeda, militant Islamist. No question about it, that's where his roots are. But about 2017, around then, broke with Al-Qaeda,
Starting point is 00:12:17 claimed that they were too extremist, that they would never attract allies. And his signature stamp on this is what he calls the importance of governing. So during these years that he's in this small pocket in the Northwest corner, he trained his people to collect taxes, to stand up schools, to stand up health clinics. You know, wearing a hijab in that part of which is covering that really observant Muslim women where it's not mandatory. He did not make it mandatory.
Starting point is 00:13:03 Unlike, for instance, in Iran, where we've seen women beaten because they don't. Most women do. I was watching the pictures of the fighters that were in the chiefs as they rolled into Damascus yesterday. Some of them did not have beards. And I look for those things because they are kind of the, you know, the body language of a militant organization like this. He has told his men as they came through, do not attack Christians or Druze. And Druze are another minority.
Starting point is 00:13:44 Don't fire your guns in the air because you're going to scare civilians. And when they came into Damascus, again, consistent with this governance theme, don't take over any of the institutions other than the radio station. We will have a formal transfer of power from the Prime Minister who's still there. So we haven't seen this before, Peter, when we think about all the other Islamist groups that we've watched over the last 15 years. And there's an argument that he learned something
Starting point is 00:14:21 from the failure of Al-Qaeda and ISIS, which was so bloody and brutal. He has governed for 10 years. And Syria is a multi-ethnic state, frankly, with Christians, Druze, Sunni, Shia. And if you don't want one more brutal round of civil war, you have to bring other elements of the coalition in. That's what we're seeing in 24 hours now. I don't want to provide false optimism after 24 hours, but it sure is different.
Starting point is 00:15:07 So much has changed in a few hours. Who knows what's going to change in the next 24 or 48 hours. We'll be careful about what we try to forecast. But I found, you know, you learn something every time you listen to you. I did not realize the significance of names to places where people came from. Right. So Al-Ghalani comes from the Golan Heights. Right.
Starting point is 00:15:30 Which he may be moderate in his actions, certainly compared with what moving into a kind of buffer zone between the Golan and Syria. So they must be concerned about what's happening. Well, they are. There's no question they are. Before he moved out, before this last 10 days when all this happened, Jelani wanted to organize a big commemorative event in honor of Yaya Simar. So that would not have escaped Israeli attention for sure. So the real question is, are they going to focus on building a government in Syria, which is huge, the problem? This is a country that's really, frankly, been devastated. It was, you know, half a million people dead and dispersed as a result of the last brutal round of the Syrian civil war. And we
Starting point is 00:16:52 saw something, Peter, which always strikes me. I don't know if you've watched any pictures, but the Syrian army, Assad's army, they didn't fight. Yeah, I was going to, it reminded me of what happened in Afghanistan in the summer, a couple of summers ago, when the Afghan army basically said, we're out of here. We're gone. We're not going to fight.
Starting point is 00:17:18 And clearly, Assad's army chose the same thing. I mean, this march through the different cities up to Damascus was a walk in the park. It absolutely was. So why? These are really poorly paid soldiers. You know, Syria's been impoverished. It is not the Syria that it was 15 years ago. How do you buy loyalty in an army? And buy is the right word here. You pay your soldiers
Starting point is 00:17:52 really well. You know, in those last desperate hours, Assad decides he's going to increase the salaries of the Syrian army by 50%. That was 24 hours before he left the country. That really tells you everything you need to know. The army has collapsed. So there's a big security problem right away. Right? In the big cities. Again,
Starting point is 00:18:24 Chile is not doing what we've seen, what the Americans did when they came into into Baghdad. Frankly, there he has not dismissed all the officials. He's told them that they will be safe, that if they agree to work with his government, they will not be prosecuted and that there'll be an orderly transition. The prime minister who worked for Assad all these years is still there. There's a picture of him getting into a car, so who knows? But they've made clear that they want an orderly transition and they are not going after the officials of the former government. That army situation, you know, in terms of what all those soldiers do now,
Starting point is 00:19:12 I appreciate the difference you did put between what happened in Iraq when the Americans moved in. They basically fired everybody. But part of the problem for the Americans there was that everyone in the army was dismissed. So they didn't have a job. They didn't have any money. Yep. These guys have fled. They burned their uniforms, the whole bed.
Starting point is 00:19:36 So one assumes they're not going to get paid. So you have that problem, too, because we're not talking about insignificant numbers here. It's a huge problem. It's a huge problem because all these, they don't know how to fire a gun. They're not, they're not going to get paid. You know, if you don't, if you don't give these sick ex army guys,
Starting point is 00:20:02 frankly, a way back in to get jobs and support their families they become the charband of discontent in a society and then before you know it you have an insurgency um going on and he doesn't have a lot of time to get that organized so that alone the fact that the syrian army melted away no uniforms don't, no uniforms, don't know who they are, don't know where they are, and they're unpaid, that's a point of tremendous vulnerability for the new government. providing food and clean water to the civilian populations that are destabilized by this. That's for sure. I want to get to the other kind of losers in this in a second. But first of all, just tell me about Syria.
Starting point is 00:21:02 There clearly was a time that Syria was a rich country. What is it rich from? Is it oil? Is it resources? What is it? It's rich because if you look at its geography up here, it is absolutely it is, you know, astride the trade routes from all of Asia could cross over through Iraq, through Syria, use the ports on the Syrian coast,
Starting point is 00:21:35 and you go right through the Mediterranean, and you go through Europe. So it was a trading center for, you know, thousands of years, frankly. You know, the great Caliphates were there. They were there for a reason. These were rich, rich Muslim societies with enormous, you know, authority because they were rich enough to support all the scholarship.
Starting point is 00:22:01 They had some of the greatest institutions. And they were the transit point, the entry point for European goods that would come by sea and go across land to Asia. That brings me to the countries that are the big losers in this, or it seemed to be at this moment anyway, over this last couple of days, the big losers, and those would be Iran. Speaking of using Syria as a land bridge, they've done that for years, moving stuff to Hezbollah in Lebanon, but also Russia and also Hezbollah seem to be the three big losers here who can do nothing to prop up Assad and, you know, final days of his regime.
Starting point is 00:22:51 And they could have. All right. They could have. So so let's start with Iran. Just astonishing, Peter. And this is where this is connected to the Israel-Palestine conflict and to what went on between Israel and Hezbollah and Israel and Iran since August. You know, the loss of Syria to Iran, that is there. That was the core strategy for Iran for the last 25 years. It was fundamental to the axis of resistance, because where was that axis? It was Iranian militias in Iraq, which are still intact. But then it was Hezbollah was the building block for an enormous investment. And the Iranians propped up Assad as well.
Starting point is 00:23:52 And there's a long history of friendship between Iran and Syria because Assad was ostracized in those years after the civil war, but the relationship goes back even further. Iranis have 48 hours. They could have told whatever active ground units there still are in Hezbollah, and there are. This is it. You have to go and fight now because otherwise we lose everything. They didn't. In fact, they emptied out their embassy, which is always assigned to everybody. When you start evacuating the dependents in the embassy, everybody else knows the game is over. Right?
Starting point is 00:24:42 That's one of the first things that intelligence agencies watch for. When their wives and the children are told to leave and go home, they evacuated their embassy and did nothing. I'm astonished. Now, why? The only way to explain this is that last Israeli strike against Iran, in which they took out all their air defenses, which leaves the Iranians vulnerable to any kind of Israeli air strike
Starting point is 00:25:17 until Russia can replace those air defenses. And Russia can't right now. It doesn't have enough. It's using them in its war with Ukraine. It cannot resupply in the short term. And the Israelis took out a nuclear research station. That was a signal to the Iranians. So they do not feel they can take the risk right now.
Starting point is 00:25:46 They are so vulnerable and so exposed, they did not take the risk. Plus, one more thing happened, which 10 days ago, there were two private Iranian aircraft that were overflying Syria on their way to deliver munitions to Hezbollah.
Starting point is 00:26:12 Israeli fighters, jet fighters scrambled and told those planes to turn around and go back to Iran because otherwise they would shoot them down if they tried to land and offload the military equipment and the Iranian aircraft turned around. You know, this is such an incredible situation to be looking at and watching the chess pieces on the board moving around here, you've got Netanyahu in serious political trouble domestically for a lot of different reasons that go back some time and his own personal future and whether he ends up in jail or not.
Starting point is 00:26:55 Yep. And yet in this last, since about September, militarily, everything's gone his way. Yeah. Everything.arily, everything's gone his way. Yeah. Everything. Everything. Everything. You know, in two months, the whole strategic balance in that part of the Middle East completely changed.
Starting point is 00:27:18 The Iranian access of resistance, a 25-year investment, gone. And by the way, Hezbollah, which is a Shia militia, right? Jelani has no interest in them. They're Sunni. You cannot supply Hezbollah through the air right now because of what we just talked about and you can't supply them on the ground because Syria, as you said earlier Peter, that's a crucial
Starting point is 00:27:54 transit route to supply Hezbollah that Iran used for 20 years so access to resistance is gone rearming Hezbollah now it's going to be extraordinarily difficult so the whole
Starting point is 00:28:12 Iranian investment there is no Iranian the easiest way to put this there is no longer a meaningful Iranian presence anywhere on Israel's borders so you're Iranian presence anywhere on Israel's borders. So, you're Jelani, you're al-Jelani here for a moment, and the two allies of your country, at least for the last 10 or 20 years,
Starting point is 00:28:38 Iran and Russia, abandoned the person they were allied to. You don't have any deep-seated thinking towards being allied with them because they've been your enemy, basically, for the last little while. So who do you turn to if you're al-Jilani? Because his country's a mess. Well, the first call will be Erdogan and Istanbul. There's no question about it. You know, Jelani lived next door. They were close neighbors to those Turkish-backed militias
Starting point is 00:29:17 that Erdogan pushed across the border to secure that border. That's one for sure. Really bizarre politics going on here. It was a message that allegedly, allegedly, I just saw the tape, allegedly, that's why I'm saying allegedly four times here, Peter, that one of the militants taped, in which he said to the Israelis, we
Starting point is 00:29:46 are not your enemies and we don't want to fight with you. Now, could it be a deep fight? Of course it could. So that's why I'm very careful. But that really says they're going to be focused on securing their position in Syria. They have to. It is so factionalized and so embittered by what happened. Russia doesn't have the resources to meet the financial demands that they will require.
Starting point is 00:30:22 That money is all in the Gulf. It's in Saudi Arabia. It's in Saudi Arabia. It's in Abu Dhabi. But the Gulf and Egypt are the three countries that worry most about the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic Jihad, especially the Gulf, because they feel that is their security nightmare.
Starting point is 00:30:46 So they are going to be very, very, very careful about providing financial resources. I don't think with under President Donald Trump, the United States is going to get involved. So this is going to be very, very tough to get the financial support to do this. If Turkey moves in there as a increased area of influence for them, does that make Israel more nervous, less nervous, or about the same as it's been? I think it makes them more nervous. There is a very,
Starting point is 00:31:25 very tense relationship between Netanyahu and Erdogan. Rhetoric at times has escalated through the roof, but we've also, underneath that rhetoric, and Erdogan appeals to the domestic audience
Starting point is 00:31:44 too. You know, Turkey is still somewhat divided between a secular minority that's part of Turkish history for 100 years and a Muslim majority right now in the big cities that Erdogan has been able to mobilize. So part of what you hear from Erdogan is a response to domestic politics. I will say this about Erdogan has been able to mobilize. So part of what you hear from Erdogan is a response to domestic politics. I will say this about Erdogan. He's surrounded by very professional, experienced group of political advisors who, to put it really elegantly, make deals. He's probably, I think, the most sophisticated in tailoring his rhetoric when he needs to in order to get what he wants. And I think there will be,
Starting point is 00:32:40 I think the most interesting thing to watch over the next three or four weeks as this group struggles to consolidate is Erdogan in public and then the conversations that Erdogan has with Israelis because that channel is always open. And let's not forget, Erdogan managed to beat back a coup. And it wasn't that long ago. It was three or four years ago. And it wasn't that long ago. What did it do? Three or four years ago. And it looked like he was done. That's right.
Starting point is 00:33:11 And within a matter of hours, he turned the whole situation around. Right. Which he blamed the United States for, let's not forget. Right. That's right. And I'm sure he has a long memory on that. Very long.
Starting point is 00:33:23 Okay, we're going to take a break and then I'm going to bring it to Canada, because we have something to be thinking about on this story as well. Rather, not just the global picture of it, not just the geopolitics, but the question of refugees. And we'll bring that to the front right after this and welcome back you're listening to the monday episode of the bridge that means dr janice stein from the monk school the university of toronto um and we're talking about sy and how what's happened in the last few days has kind of changed our look, certainly at that part of the world, but there are greater ramifications as well.
Starting point is 00:34:13 If you recall when the Syrian civil war took place, roughly 10 years ago, there was a huge movement of people, refugees, and it was basically the refugee story that enveloped a good chunk of Europe, literally millions of people moving away from the civil war in Syria. Six million people. Pardon me? Six million. Six million. A third of the country. Tens of thousands ended up coming to Canada. And as so parts of the country and how welcoming they have been received in many different communities. But this will now become an issue for Syrians who fled their country around the world about whether or not they want to go back.
Starting point is 00:35:19 Now, this is not the weekend to go back, really. There are problems there um but this becomes an issue too about them once again the movement of the movement of people this time going back excuse me perhaps more so in europe than it does here uh certainly in numbers but also in in terms of feeling when you're when you say you say you've you've fled to Greece or Germany or France or wherever it may be, it's a lot easier to consider going back from there. But it becomes part of the story too. It's a huge story, Peter.
Starting point is 00:35:55 It's a huge story. And I think all our listeners will remember Angela Merkel's taking in a million refugees, mainly from Syria and from Afghanistan at the time and saying, we can do this. And looking back, that is probably what started the polarization in Germany because it was a part of it and she thought to do it. You know, we have, there are great stories of Syrian refugees as always in this country. You know, we have some that have gone through the Munk School and are just extraordinary There are great stories of Syrian refugees, as always, in this country.
Starting point is 00:36:30 You know, we have some that have gone through the monk school and are just extraordinary successes. Here's an interesting fact about Canada. When you're a refugee, you hear your claim and grant you officially asylum in Canada is seven years. We are just, in other words, we are just now beginning to have official action to legitimate Syrian refugees in Canada, to give them citizenship, to allow asylum claims. It's only a year or two that this community has started to go through our official institutions. It would be inconceivable for any Syrian to leave without having some status because it would be such a risky thing to do. That's one part of the story. But here's the other part of the story. our refugee boards, and their whole claim for asylum rested on the fact
Starting point is 00:37:47 that they were going to be prosecuted by the Assad regime. Right. And it leaves them without an argument, right? Leaves them without an argument. There's no documented record of, you know, Tayyar al-Hasham persecuting anyone because they were in that small corner. So it will be much harder for any Syrian refugees. And there are many who have not yet had their claims heard because our refugee system is so, I'm going to put it this way,
Starting point is 00:38:32 because our refugee system doesn't have enough officers to process the volume of claims that we have in this country. So we're very slow. Will the argument that some have spent, you know, five, six, seven years in this country and have planted roots here, not just family roots but employment roots, will that mean something quite apart from what may have happened in their old country? A refugee board, as opposed to, let's distinguish immigrants from refugees, right? Immigrants who go through our regular system.
Starting point is 00:39:16 Refugees, which virtually everybody from the Syrian community was, as they streamed out given the brutality of the violence of the al-Assad regime, came in as refugees. And for a refugee board, only one thing matters. You have to be able to show a well-founded claim that you will be persecuted if you return to your country of origin. So, you know, there's joyous celebrations in Damascus and in other parts of Syria. I imagine there are families, Syrian families in Canada,
Starting point is 00:39:57 where it's finished with some alarm, too. Yeah. Your point about Germany is a good one because, you know, I was in Germany working on actually on this story about five years ago. And you could see the very clear roots of the polarization that you talk about and the rise of the right again. And it was all centered around this, you know, immigration issue, but specifically about the Syrian refugee problem and Merkel's decision to allow in a million, which was lauded by the rest of the world. But at home, it's not a popular move. You know, I should add one other thing, Peter, for any Syrian families that are listening.
Starting point is 00:40:59 Our Minister of Immigration has jurisdiction to override procedures and to unilaterally grant status. It's been used in the past, not with large numbers, but in individual cases. This is such an extraordinary story that is happening in real time. And so many, as you say, are such wonderful citizens of Canada with families here and kids in school and contributors to Canadian society. It would not, I think, it would not be unheard of for a minister to step up under those circumstances and recognize that things shifted on the ground. But that way, these people came here seven or eight years ago and have not heard that, had their claims heard. That's on us.
Starting point is 00:41:41 You know, we've seen, perhaps not in these kind of numbers, but we've seen similar situations. You know, we saw it in Hungary in the 50s, we saw it in Czechoslovakia in the 60s, we saw it with the boat people in the 70s. Did governments at that time? Well, you see, what's different here is that in Hungary in the 50s and Slovakia and even Ukraine there's no change at home which makes it possible for them to go home. The game changer here is that there is a new regime that has displaced the oppressor that these people fled that's what makes this unique. So we'll have to see what the minister does. When these first cases come through, what will probably happen here, Peter? There might be one Syrian family whose hearing is two months from now.
Starting point is 00:42:34 And some board follows the rules and says, well, we can't affirm your well-documented fear of persecution because there's a different government. And deny somebody's status, then they will appeal. Here's the last question. And you've been generous with your time today. We've gone well over where we usually go. But here's the last question. What are you looking for in the next hours or days
Starting point is 00:43:04 as to where this story is going to point? Is there, first of all, does that meeting with Assad's prime minister take place? And is there an orderly transition of power? Is there a handshake? hand-take. Secondly, does Jelani reassure all the civil servants who are not in the army that their jobs are safe? And thirdly, does he move as aggressively as he can to provide financial assistance and food to the big cities where the army
Starting point is 00:43:44 has likely melted away. If he can do those three things and reassure the minorities that he has learned from the mistakes of others, yes, this will be a Muslim regime, an Islamic regime, but it will welcome Christians, it will welcome Jews, and he has no interest in any war with his neighbors. As Syria rebuilds itself, if he can strike that tone, I think he will have accomplished a great deal.
Starting point is 00:44:12 It's also an opportunity for some countries outside to help him out on that floor. Yes. Although it's tricky, given his past and his associations. It's a bit of a dilemma, too, for other governments. Well, you know, I can just imagine our own. I'm sure there's some people inside our government who say, oh, this is a moment to support.
Starting point is 00:44:38 We've broken the old pattern, so they're gone, right? And when you do that, Peter, when you break apart very, very entrenched 25-year patterns, of course there's an opportunity. But are you going to take the political risk? Because there's political risk. We both know. There sure is.
Starting point is 00:44:58 Okay, we're going to leave it at that for this week. It just keeps happening. Who knows where we'll be seven days from now. Are you hoping for a quiet Christmas? Yeah. I don't think that's going to happen. Janice, thanks so much.
Starting point is 00:45:13 We'll talk to you again in seven days. Dr. Janice Stein with another amazing week of conversation on our ever-changing world. It just seems, I don't know, I guess it's always been like this to some degree, but it just seems that what we've witnessed in the last year, two years, three years, especially in that kind of corner of the world, Middle East plus Ukraine, Russia. What we're witnessing in the Pacific Rim, Taiwan Straits.
Starting point is 00:45:57 Oh, this is a dicey time. Very, very difficult. All right, that's going to wrap it up for this day. Tomorrow, what we're going to do, and maybe it's because I'm in the Christmas spirit, we're just going to take it easy for the next couple of Tuesdays. We learned last week that we can have some fun in doing the end bits. And so we're going to keep attacking that pile of end bits that I've got here and see what stories we can come up with on tomorrow's program.
Starting point is 00:46:31 Wednesday is the Encore edition, of course. And Thursday, your turn. You heard the question, what is a politician? Think that one through. Has it changed? Has our definition of politician changed? Has it changed for the good or for the bad? What is it? So we're looking for your tight answers, right? Name, location. Have it in by 6 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday and you write to the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com.
Starting point is 00:47:07 Okay, thanks so much for listening today. It's been quite the show today. And we'll talk again in a little less than 24 hours. Bye for now.

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